Prior suicide attempts predict worse clinical and functional outcomes in young people attending a mental health service

Examining Predictors of Psychological Distress Among Youth Engaging with Jigsaw for a Brief Intervention

Risk factors for psychological distress among help-seeking youth are poorly understood. Addressing this gap is important for informing mental health service provision. This study aimed to identify risk factors among youth attending Jigsaw, a youth mental health service in Ireland. Routine data were collected from N = 9,673 youth who engaged with Jigsaw (Mean age = 16.9 years, SD = 3.14), including presenting issues, levels of psychological distress, age, and gender. Confirmatory Factor Analysis identified thirteen factors of clustering issues. Several factors, including Self-criticism and Negative Thoughts, were strongly associated with items clustering as psychological distress, however these factors were poorly predictive of distress as measured by the CORE (YP-CORE: R2 = 14.7%, CORE-10: R2 = 6.9%). The findings provide insight into associations between young people's identified presenting issues and self-identified distress. Implications include applying appropriate therapeutic modalities to focus on risk factors and informing routine outcome measurement in integrated youth mental health services.

Association of hospitalization for suicide attempts in adolescent girls with subsequent hospitalization for eating disorders

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between adolescent hospitalization for suicide attempts and the subsequent risk of eating disorder hospitalization.

METHOD

This was a cohort study of 162,398 adolescent girls in Quebec, Canada, including 7741 with suicide attempts before 20 years of age, matched to 154,657 adolescents with no attempt between 1989 and 2019. The main exposure measure was suicide attempt hospitalization. The main outcome measure was hospitalization for an eating disorder up to 31 years later, including anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, and other eating disorders. We used adjusted Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between adolescent suicide attempts and eating disorder hospitalization.

RESULTS

Adolescent girls admitted for a suicide attempt had 5.55 times the risk of eating disorder hospitalization over time (95% CI 3.74-8.23), compared with matched controls. Suicide attempt was associated with anorexia nervosa (HR 3.57, 95% CI 1.78-7.17) and bulimia nervosa and other eating disorders (HR 8.55, 95% CI 5.48-13.32). Associations were pronounced in girls with repeated suicide attempts. Girls who attempted suicide through self-poisoning had an elevated risk of anorexia nervosa, whereas girls who used violent methods such as cutting or piercing had a greater risk of bulimia nervosa and other eating disorders. Suicide attempt was strongly associated with eating disorder hospitalization in the year following the attempt, but associations persisted throughout follow-up.

DISCUSSION

Suicide attempt admission is associated with the long-term risk of eating disorder hospitalization in adolescent girls.

PUBLIC SIGNIFICANCE

This study of adolescent girls suggests that suicide attempt admission is associated with the long-term risk of hospitalization for eating disorders. The risk is greatest in the year after the attempt, but persists over time. Adolescents who present with a suicide attempt may benefit from screening for eating disorders and long-term follow-up to help prevent the exacerbation or development of eating disorders.

A multidimensional approach for differentiating the clinical needs of young people presenting for primary mental health care

OBJECTIVES

There is an ongoing necessity to match clinical interventions with the multidimensional needs of young people. A key step toward better service planning and the design of optimal models of care is to use multidimensional assessment to understand the clinical needs of those presenting to primary mental health care.

METHODS

1284 people aged 12-25 years presenting to primary youth mental health services completed an online assessment at service entry. Latent class analysis was conducted for seven scales assessing anxiety, depression, psychosis, mania, functioning (indexed by Work and Social Adjustment Scale), and suicidality.

RESULTS

A three-class solution was identified as the optimal solution. Class 1 (n = 305, 23.75%), an early illness stage group, had low and mixed symptomatology with limited functional impairment, class 2 (n = 353, 27.49%) was made up of older persons with established depression and functional impairment, and class 3 (n = 626, 48.75%) had very high and complex needs, with functional impairment, suicidality, and at-risk mental states (psychosis or mania). Additional differentiating characteristics included psychological distress, circadian disturbances, social support, mental health history, eating disorder behaviours, and symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder.

CONCLUSIONS

A large proportion of help-seeking young people present with symptoms and functional impairment that may exceed the levels of care available from basic primary care or brief intervention services. These subgroups highlight the importance of multidimensional assessments to determine appropriate service pathways and care options.

Patterns of emergency department presentations for a youth mental health cohort: data-linkage cohort study

BACKGROUND

Primary youth mental health services in Australia have increased access to care for young people, yet the longer-term outcomes and utilisation of other health services among these populations is unclear.

AIMS

To describe the emergency department presentation patterns of a help-seeking youth mental health cohort.

METHOD

Data linkage was performed to extract Emergency Department Data Collection registry data (i.e. emergency department presentations, pattern of re-presentations) for a transdiagnostic cohort of 7024 youths (aged 12-30 years) who presented to mental health services. Outcome measures were pattern of presentations and reason for presentations (i.e. mental illness; suicidal behaviours and self-harm; alcohol and substance use; accident and injury; physical illness; and other).

RESULTS

During the follow-up period, 5372 (76.5%) had at least one emergency department presentation. The presentation rate was lower for males (IRR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.86-0.89) and highest among those aged 18 to 24 (IRR = 1.117, 95% CI 1.086-1.148). Almost one-third (31.12%) had an emergency department presentation that was directly associated with mental illness or substance use, and the most common reasons for presentation were for physical illness and accident or injury. Index visits for mental illness or substance use were associated with a higher rate of re-presentation.

CONCLUSIONS

Most young people presenting to primary mental health services also utilised emergency services. The preventable and repeated nature of many presentations suggests that reducing the ongoing secondary risks of mental disorders (i.e. substance misuse, suicidality, physical illness) could substantially improve the mental and physical health outcomes of young people.

The temporal dependencies between social, emotional and physical health factors in young people receiving mental healthcare: a dynamic Bayesian network analysis

AIMS

The needs of young people attending mental healthcare can be complex and often span multiple domains (e.g., social, emotional and physical health factors). These factors often complicate treatment approaches and contribute to poorer outcomes in youth mental health. We aimed to identify how these factors interact over time by modelling the temporal dependencies between these transdiagnostic social, emotional and physical health factors among young people presenting for youth mental healthcare.

METHODS

Dynamic Bayesian networks were used to examine the relationship between mental health factors across multiple domains (social and occupational function, self-harm and suicidality, alcohol and substance use, physical health and psychiatric syndromes) in a longitudinal cohort of 2663 young people accessing youth mental health services. Two networks were developed: (1) 'initial network', that shows the conditional dependencies between factors at first presentation, and a (2) 'transition network', how factors are dependent longitudinally.

RESULTS

The 'initial network' identified that childhood disorders tend to precede adolescent depression which itself was associated with three distinct pathways or illness trajectories; (1) anxiety disorder; (2) bipolar disorder, manic-like experiences, circadian disturbances and psychosis-like experiences; (3) self-harm and suicidality to alcohol and substance use or functioning. The 'transition network' identified that over time social and occupational function had the largest effect on self-harm and suicidality, with direct effects on ideation (relative risk [RR], 1.79; CI, 1.59-1.99) and self-harm (RR, 1.32; CI, 1.22-1.41), and an indirect effect on attempts (RR, 2.10; CI, 1.69-2.50). Suicide ideation had a direct effect on future suicide attempts (RR, 4.37; CI, 3.28-5.43) and self-harm (RR, 2.78; CI, 2.55-3.01). Alcohol and substance use, physical health and psychiatric syndromes (e.g., depression and anxiety, at-risk mental states) were independent domains whereby all direct effects remained within each domain over time.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified probable temporal dependencies between domains, which has causal interpretations, and therefore can provide insight into their differential role over the course of illness. This work identified social, emotional and physical health factors that may be important early intervention and prevention targets. Improving social and occupational function may be a critical target due to its impacts longitudinally on self-harm and suicidality. The conditional independence of alcohol and substance use supports the need for specific interventions to target these comorbidities.

Trends and Seasonality of Emergency Department Visits and Hospitalizations for Suicidality Among Children and Adolescents in the US from 2016 to 2021

Importance

The detection of seasonal patterns in suicidality should be of interest to clinicians and US public health officials, as intervention efforts can benefit by targeting periods of heightened risk.

Objectives

To examine recent trends in suicidality rates, quantify the seasonality in suicidality, and demonstrate the disrupted seasonality patterns during the spring 2020 COVID-19-related school closures among US children and adolescents.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based, descriptive cross-sectional study used administrative claims data from Optum's deidentifed Clinformatics Data Mart Database. Participants included children aged 10 to 12 years and adolescents aged 13 to 18 years who were commercially insured from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2021. Statistical analysis was conducted between April and November 2022.

Exposures

Month of the year and COVID-19 pandemic.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Rates and seasonal patterns of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations for suicidality.

Results

The analysis included 73 123 ED visits and hospitalizations for suicidality reported between 2016 and 2021. Among these events, 66.1% were reported for females, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the event was 15.4 (2.0) years. The mean annual incidence of ED visits and hospitalizations for suicidality was 964 per 100 000 children and adolescents (95% CI, 956-972 per 100 000), which increased from 760 per 100 000 (95% CI, 745-775 per 100 000) in 2016 to 1006 per 100 000 (95% CI, 988-10 024 per 100 000) in 2019, with a temporary decrease to 942 per 100 000 (95% CI, 924-960 per 100 000) in 2020 and a subsequent increase to 1160 per 100 000 (95% CI, 1140-1181 per 100 000) in 2021. Compared with January, seasonal patterns showed peaks in April (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.15 [95% CI, 1.11-1.19]) and October (IRR, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.19-1.29]) and a nadir in July (IRR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.61-0.66]) during pre-COVID-19 years and 2021. However, during the spring of 2020, which coincided with school closures, seasonal patterns were disrupted and April and May exhibited the lowest rates.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this study indicated the presence of seasonal patterns and an observed unexpected decrease in suicidality among children and adolescents after COVID-19-related school closures in March 2020, which suggest a potential association between suicidality and the school calendar.

Predictors of prospective suicide attempts in a group at risk of personality disorder following self-poisoning

Background

Patients with personality disorder (PD) are at risk for suicidal behavior and are frequently admitted for this reason to emergency departments. In this context, researchers have tried to identify predictors of their suicidal acts, however, the studies have been mostly retrospective, and uncertainty remains. To prospectively explore factors associated with suicide attempts (SA) in individuals screened for PD from the ecological context of emergencies.

Methods

Patients were recruited from two emergency departments after a self-poisoning episode (n = 310). PDQ-4+ (risk of PD), TAS-20 (alexithymia), SIS (suicidal intent), H (hopelessness), BDI-13 (depression), AUDIT (alcohol consumption), and MINI (comorbidity) questionnaires were completed. SA over the subsequent two years were identified by mailed questionnaires and hospitals' active files. Logistic regression analyses were performed.

Results

Having a previous suicidal attempt was linked to a 2.7 times higher chance of recurrence after 6 months, whereas the TAS-20 showed a 1.1 times higher risk at 18 months (OR = 1.1) and the BDI at 24 months (OR = 1.2). Each one-unit increment in TAS-20 and BDI-13 scores increased the risk of SA by 9.8 and 20.4% at 18 and 24 months, respectively.

Conclusion

Some clinical features, such as alcohol dependence, suicide intent, and hopelessness, may not be reliable predictors of SA among PD patients. However, in the short term, previous SA and, in the long term, depression and alexithymia may be the most robust clinical predictors to consider in our sample of patients with self-poisoning SA.Clinical trial registration: [ClinicalTrials.gov], NCT00641498 24/03/2008 [#2006-A00450-51].

Predictive modelling of deliberate self-harm and suicide attempts in young people accessing primary care: a machine learning analysis of a longitudinal study

PURPOSE

Machine learning (ML) has shown promise in modelling future self-harm but is yet to be applied to key questions facing clinical services. In a cohort of young people accessing primary mental health care, this study aimed to establish (1) the performance of models predicting deliberate self-harm (DSH) compared to suicide attempt (SA), (2) the performance of models predicting new-onset or repeat behaviour, and (3) the relative importance of factors predicting these outcomes.

METHODS

802 young people aged 12-25 years attending primary mental health services had detailed social and clinical assessments at baseline and 509 completed 12-month follow-up. Four ML algorithms, as well as logistic regression, were applied to build four distinct models.

RESULTS

The mean performance of models predicting SA (AUC: 0.82) performed better than the models predicting DSH (AUC: 0.72), with mean positive predictive values (PPV) approximately twice that of the prevalence (SA prevalence 14%, PPV: 0.32, DSH prevalence 22%, PPV: 0.40). All ML models outperformed standard logistic regression. The most frequently selected variable in both models was a history of DSH via cutting.

CONCLUSION

History of DSH and clinical symptoms of common mental disorders, rather than social and demographic factors, were the most important variables in modelling future behaviour. The performance of models predicting outcomes in key sub-cohorts, those with new-onset or repetition of DSH or SA during follow-up, was poor. These findings may indicate that the performance of models of future DSH or SA may depend on knowledge of the individual's recent history of either behaviour.

Suicide Attempt and Risk of Substance Use Disorders Among Female Youths

IMPORTANCE

Suicide attempts are prevalent among female youths, yet little is known about the subsequent development of substance use disorders.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between suicide attempts among females before 20 years of age and future risk of substance use disorders.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this longitudinal cohort study, females aged 8 to 19 years (hereafter referred to as youths) who attempted suicide were matched with female youths with no attempt between April 1, 1989, and March 31, 2019, in Quebec, Canada. The cohort was followed up for 31 years, for a total of 2 409 396 person-years, to identify subsequent substance use disorders.

EXPOSURES

Confirmed suicide attempts among females 8 to 19 years of age.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome measure was hospitalization for a substance use disorder later in life. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the association of suicide attempt with substance use disorders were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for baseline age, mental illness, resource-limited socioeconomic status, and year at start of follow-up.

RESULTS

Among 122 234 female youths (mean [SD] age, 15.6 [1.9] years), 5840 (4.8%) attempted suicide and 4341 (3.6%) developed a substance use disorder. Compared with the 116 394 matched female youths who did not attempt suicide (95.2%), those who attempted suicide had a greater risk of hospitalization for any substance use disorder during the follow-up period (HR, 6.03; 95% CI, 5.39-6.77), especially sedative or hypnotic use disorders (HR, 32.24; 95% CI, 23.29-44.64). Suicide attempt was associated with the development of sedative or hypnotic use disorders up to 5 years (HR, 66.69; 95% CI, 34.72-128.09), although risks remained elevated up to 3 decades later for all substances. Compared with those without suicide attempt, female youths with 3 or more suicide attempts had 21.20 (95% CI, 13.53-32.90) times the risk of substance use disorders, whereas female youths with 1 attempt had 5.70 (95% CI, 5.08-6.41) times the risk of these disorders.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, female youths who attempted suicide had increased risk of subsequent substance use disorders compared with female youths who did not attempt suicide. These findings suggest that closer management and prevention of substance use among female youths who attempt suicide may be beneficial.

Predicting the emergence of full-threshold bipolar I, bipolar II and psychotic disorders in young people presenting to early intervention mental health services

BACKGROUND

Predictors of new-onset bipolar disorder (BD) or psychotic disorder (PD) have been proposed on the basis of retrospective or prospective studies of 'at-risk' cohorts. Few studies have compared concurrently or longitudinally factors associated with the onset of BD or PDs in youth presenting to early intervention services. We aimed to identify clinical predictors of the onset of full-threshold (FT) BD or PD in this population.

METHOD

Multi-state Markov modelling was used to assess the relationships between baseline characteristics and the likelihood of the onset of FT BD or PD in youth (aged 12-30) presenting to mental health services.

RESULTS

Of 2330 individuals assessed longitudinally, 4.3% (n = 100) met criteria for new-onset FT BD and 2.2% (n = 51) met criteria for a new-onset FT PD. The emergence of FT BD was associated with older age, lower social and occupational functioning, mania-like experiences (MLE), suicide attempts, reduced incidence of physical illness, childhood-onset depression, and childhood-onset anxiety. The emergence of a PD was associated with older age, male sex, psychosis-like experiences (PLE), suicide attempts, stimulant use, and childhood-onset depression.

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying risk factors for the onset of either BD or PDs in young people presenting to early intervention services is assisted not only by the increased focus on MLE and PLE, but also by recognising the predictive significance of poorer social function, childhood-onset anxiety and mood disorders, and suicide attempts prior to the time of entry to services. Secondary prevention may be enhanced by greater attention to those risk factors that are modifiable or shared by both illness trajectories.

Association between dietary and suicidal behaviors based on the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (2015-2020)

OBJECTIVES

This study explored the association between dietary and suicidal behaviors of Korean adolescents and investigated differences in this association in children of immigrant parents.

METHODS

The sample (n=368,138) was collected from the Korea Youth Risk Behavior Survey from 2015 to 2020. Participants who agreed to provide family information (n=313,689) were classified according to their parents’ nationality. The study variables were 11 self-reported dietary behaviors, and their composite dietary behaviors (i.e., nutrient deprivation and unhealthy food consumption) that resulted from principal component analysis. The association between study variables and suicide-related outcomes (i.e., suicidal ideation, suicide planning, and suicide attempts) was analyzed by multiple logistic regression with adjustment for covariates. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated.

RESULTS

Participants who skipped key meals and foods were more likely to have attemped suicide (aOR [95% CI]: skipping breakfast ≥5 days/wk, 1.28 [1.21 to 1.35]; consuming fruits <1 times/wk: 1.42 [1.32 to 1.52]; consuming vegetables <1 times/wk: 1.72 [1.53 to 1.93]; consuming milk <3 times/wk: 1.07 [0.99 to 1.16]). The associations were prominent in third culture kids (TCKs) (aOR [95% CI]: 2.23 [1.61 to 3.09]; 2.32 [1.61 to 3.35]; 2.63 [1.50 to 4.60]; 1.69 [1.09 to 2.63], respectively). Participants who consumed unhealthy foods (fast food, caffeinated and sugary drinks) more frequently were more likely to have attempted suicide (aOR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.38 to 1.73). This association was also more prominent in TCKs (aOR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.08 to 4.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate a positive association between unfavorable dietary behaviors and outcomes related to suicide, and this association appears to be notable in adolescents with immigrant parents.

Premature mortality in early-intervention mental health services: a data linkage study protocol to examine mortality and morbidity outcomes in a cohort of help-seeking young people

INTRODUCTION

Understanding the risk of premature death from suicide, accident and injury and other physical health conditions in people seeking healthcare for mental disorders is essential for delivering targeted clinical interventions and secondary prevention strategies. It is not clear whether morbidity and mortality outcomes in hospital-based adult cohorts are applicable to young people presenting to early-intervention services.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The current data linkage project will establish the Brain and Mind Patient Research Register-Mortality and Morbidity (BPRR-M&M) database. The existing Brain and Mind Research Institute Patient Research Register (BPRR) is a cohort of 6743 young people who have accessed primary care-based early-intervention services; subsets of the BPRR contain rich longitudinal clinical, neurobiological, social and functional data. The BPRR will be linked with the routinely collected health data from emergency department (ED), hospital admission and mortality databases in New South Wales from January 2010 to November 2020. Mortality will be the primary outcome of interest, while hospital presentations will be a secondary outcome. The established BPRR-M&M database will be used to establish mortality rates and rates of ED presentations and hospital admissions. Survival analysis will determine how time to death or hospital presentation varies by identified social, demographic and clinical variables. Bayesian modelling will be used to identify predictors of these morbidity and mortality outcomes.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been reviewed and approved by the human research ethics committee of the Sydney Local Health District (2019/ETH00469). All data will be non-identifiable, and research findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and scientific conference presentations.

Suicidality Risk Factors Across the CARE-HD, 2CARE, and CREST-E Clinical Trials in Huntington Disease

Background and Objectives:

Suicidality is a common concern in the routine care of persons with HD as well as for the many participants in HD clinical trials. In a previous analysis, we identified baseline and time-dependent factors associated with suicidal ideation and attempts from 2CARE, a large, randomized, double-blind clinical trial.

Methods:

The present analysis extends our prior methodology to two other large interventional HD clinical trials, CARE-HD and CREST-E.

Results:

We observed relationships across studies between suicidality events and prior suicidal ideation at baseline, antidepressant/anxiolytic use, chorea, increasing age, and several domains in the UHDRS Behavioral Assessment (depressed mood, low self-esteem, aggression, active suicidality).

Discussion:

These data may form the basis for a subscale of demographic and UHDRS items with the potential for prospectively identifying suicidality risk in HD clinics and clinical trials. (Registry: 2CARE and CREST are registered at clinicaltrials.gov. 2CARE NCT00608881, registered February 6, 2008; first enrollment March 2008. CREST-E NCT00712426, registered July 10, 2008; first enrollment September 2009. CARE-HD not registered; first enrollment July 1997).

Social and occupational outcomes for young people who attend early intervention mental health services: a longitudinal study

OBJECTIVE

To identify trajectories of social and occupational functioning in young people during the two years after presenting for early intervention mental health care; to identify demographic and clinical factors that influence these trajectories.

DESIGN

Longitudinal, observational study of young people presenting for mental health care.

SETTING

Two primary care-based early intervention mental health services at the Brain and Mind Centre (University of Sydney), 1 June 2008 - 31 July 2018.

PARTICIPANTS

1510 people aged 12-25 years who had presented with anxiety, mood, or psychotic disorders, for whom two years' follow-up data were available for analysis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Latent class trajectories of social and occupational functioning based on growth mixture modelling of Social and Occupational Assessment Scale (SOFAS) scores.

RESULTS

We identified four trajectories of functioning during the first two years of care: deteriorating and volatile (733 participants, 49%); persistent impairment (237, 16%); stable good functioning (291, 19%); and improving, but late recurrence (249, 16%). The less favourable trajectories (deteriorating and volatile; persistent impairment) were associated with physical comorbidity, not being in education, employment, or training, having substance-related disorders, having been hospitalised, and having a childhood onset mental disorder, psychosis-like experiences, or a history of self-harm or suicidality.

CONCLUSIONS

Two in three young people with emerging mental disorders did not experience meaningful improvement in social and occupational functioning during two years of early intervention care. Most functional trajectories were also quite volatile, indicating the need for dynamic service models that emphasise multidisciplinary interventions and measurement-based care.

Substance use disorders and suicidality in youth: A systematic review and meta-analysis with a focus on the direction of the association

BACKGROUND

Reviews and meta-analyses suggest that substance use and suicidality (i.e., suicidal ideations and attempts) are associated in youth, but the direction of this association remains unclear. Theoretically, the secondary psychiatric disorder hypothesis (SPDH) posits that substance use leads to suicidality, while the secondary substance use disorder hypothesis (SSUDH) posits that suicidality leads to substance use. To clarify these associations, this meta-analysis systematically reviewed studies that examined the prospective associations between SUDs and suicidality in youth (age 25 and younger) and compared results according to the direction of the association.

METHODS

Web of Science, Embase, PsycINFO, PubMed, Medline and ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global were searched from inception to March 8, 2020, and 55 effect sizes from 23 samples were included and analyzed using a three-level meta-analysis.

RESULTS

SUDs significantly predicted subsequent suicidality (OR = 2.16, 95%CI 1.57-2.97), suicidality significantly predicted subsequent SUDs (OR = 2.16, 95%CI 1.53-3.04), and these effect sizes did not differ (p = 0.49).

CONCLUSIONS

Considering that 65% of reviewed studies only examined the SPDH, this review highlights that more attention should be given to the SSUDH, and that studies should examine bidirectional associations between SUDs and suicidality across time. Clinically, because SUDs and suicidality were found to influence each other, results suggest that mental health and SUDs should ideally be detected and treated early, and that co-occurring disorders should be assessed and treated concomitantly.

Predicting self-harm within six months after initial presentation to youth mental health services: A machine learning study

BACKGROUND

A priority for health services is to reduce self-harm in young people. Predicting self-harm is challenging due to their rarity and complexity, however this does not preclude the utility of prediction models to improve decision-making regarding a service response in terms of more detailed assessments and/or intervention. The aim of this study was to predict self-harm within six-months after initial presentation.

METHOD

The study included 1962 young people (12-30 years) presenting to youth mental health services in Australia. Six machine learning algorithms were trained and tested with ten repeats of ten-fold cross-validation. The net benefit of these models were evaluated using decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

Out of 1962 young people, 320 (16%) engaged in self-harm in the six months after first assessment and 1642 (84%) did not. The top 25% of young people as ranked by mean predicted probability accounted for 51.6% - 56.2% of all who engaged in self-harm. By the top 50%, this increased to 82.1%-84.4%. Models demonstrated fair overall prediction (AUROCs; 0.744-0.755) and calibration which indicates that predicted probabilities were close to the true probabilities (brier scores; 0.185-0.196). The net benefit of these models were positive and superior to the 'treat everyone' strategy. The strongest predictors were (in ranked order); a history of self-harm, age, social and occupational functioning, sex, bipolar disorder, psychosis-like experiences, treatment with antipsychotics, and a history of suicide ideation.

CONCLUSION

Prediction models for self-harm may have utility to identify a large sub population who would benefit from further assessment and targeted (low intensity) interventions. Such models could enhance health service approaches to identify and reduce self-harm, a considerable source of distress, morbidity, ongoing health care utilisation and mortality.

Psychotherapy and youth suicide prevention: An interpretative phenomenological analysis of specialist clinicians' experiences

The study explored psychologists' experiences in delivering short-term psychotherapy for suicidal adolescents and sought to clarify how these experiences fit with empirically supported interventions and the interpersonal psychological theory of suicide. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 12 psychologists' who provided short-term psychotherapy in a suicide prevention programme for youth (12- to 25-year-olds). Interview transcripts were analysed using interpretative phenomenological analysis. Three superordinate themes were identified: (i) understand the experience and context of the suicidality and the importance of a formulation-based approach to engagement and individualized treatment planning; (ii) involve broad support systems, and in particular families, to help the young person reduce feelings of burdensomeness and increase safety, connectedness and belonging; and (iii) improve affect regulation and reflective functioning, important not only for the young person but also for the support system to maximize the positive impact of supports via emotional coregulation and effective problem-solving. Interventions and approaches as well as the potential underlying processes of change being targeted are discussed in light of these findings. As an example, the development of a suicide safety plan was an intervention that traversed these themes. When used as a process tool, it helped foster a collaborative, formulation, dimensional and biopsychosocial approach to treat psychopathology and suicidality and extended beyond the therapist-client dyad. Moreover, treatment needs to be extended beyond the therapist-client dyad to allow therapists to facilitate a systemic treatment response, as this was seen as a major component of interventions for suicidal youth.

Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors and Their Associations With Transitional Life Events in Men and Women: Findings From an International Web-Based Sample

BACKGROUND

Although numerous studies have demonstrated sex differences in the prevalence of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB), there is a clear lack of research examining the similarities and differences between men and women in terms of the relationship between STB, transitional life events, and the coping strategies employed after experiencing such events when they are perceived as stressful.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to examine the differences between men's and women's experiences of STB, sociodemographic predictors of STB, and how coping responses after experiencing a stressful transitional life event predict STB.

METHODS

A web-based self-report survey was used to assess the health and well-being of a voluntary community-based sample of men and women aged 16 years and older, living in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States, who were recruited using web-based social media promotion and snowballing.

RESULTS

In total, 10,765 eligible web-based respondents participated. Compared with men, a significantly greater proportion of women reported STB (P<.001) and endorsed experiencing a transitional life event as stressful (P<.001). However, there were no gender differences in reporting that the transitional life event or events was stressful for those who also reported STB. Significant sociodemographic adjusted risk factors of STB included younger age; identifying as a sexual minority; lower subjective social connectedness; lower subjective intimate bonds; experiencing a stressful transitional life event in the past 12 months; living alone (women only); not being in employment, education, or training (women only); suddenly or unexpectedly losing a job (men only); and experiencing a relationship breakdown (men only). Protective factors included starting a new job, retiring, having a language background other than English, and becoming a parent for the first time (men only). The results relating to coping after experiencing a self-reported stressful transitional life event in the past 12 months found that regardless of sex, respondents who reported STB compared with those who did not were less likely to engage in activities that promote social connections, such as talking about their feelings (P<.001). Coping strategies significantly explained 19.0% of the STB variance for men (F_16,1027=14.64; P<.001) and 22.0% for women (F_16,1977=36.45; P<.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This research highlights multiple risk factors for STB, one of which includes experiencing at least one stressful transitional life event in the past 12 months. When individuals are experiencing such events, support from services and the community alike should consider using sex-specific or targeted strategies, as this research indicates that compared with women, more men do nothing when experiencing stress after a transitional life event and may be waiting until they experience STB to engage with their social networks for support.

Cohort profile: the Brain and Mind Centre Optymise cohort: tracking multidimensional outcomes in young people presenting for mental healthcare

PURPOSE

The Brain and Mind Centre (BMC) Optymise cohort assesses multiple clinical and functional domains longitudinally in young people presenting for mental health care and treatment. Longitudinal tracking of this cohort will allow investigation of the relationships between multiple outcome domains across the course of care. Subsets of Optymise have completed detailed neuropsychological and neurobiological assessments, permitting investigation of associations between these measures and longitudinal course.

PARTICIPANTS

Young people (aged 12-30) presenting to clinics coordinated by the BMC were recruited to a research register (n=6743) progressively between June 2008 and July 2018. To date, 2767 individuals have been included in Optymise based on the availability of at least one detailed clinical assessment.

MEASURES

Trained researchers use a clinical research proforma to extract key data from clinical files to detail social and occupational functioning, clinical presentation, self-harm and suicidal thoughts and behaviours, alcohol and other substance use, physical health comorbidities, personal and family history of mental illness, and treatment utilisation at the following time points: baseline, 3, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months, and time last seen.

FINDINGS TO DATE

There is moderate to substantial agreement between raters for data collected via the proforma. While wide variations in individual illness course are clear, social and occupational outcomes suggest that the majority of cohort members show no improvement in functioning over time. Differential rates of longitudinal transition are reported between early and late stages of illness, with a number of baseline factors associated with these transitions. Furthermore, there are longitudinal associations between prior suicide attempts and inferior clinical and functional outcomes.

FUTURE PLANS

Future reports will detail the longitudinal course of each outcome domain and examine multidirectional relationships between these domains both cross-sectionally and longitudinally, and explore in subsets the associations between detailed neurobiological measures and clinical, social and functional outcomes.

Right care, first time: a highly personalised and measurement-based care model to manage youth mental health

Mood and psychotic syndromes most often emerge during adolescence and young adulthood, a period characterised by major physical and social change. Consequently, the effects of adolescent-onset mood and psychotic syndromes can have long term consequences. A key clinical challenge for youth mental health is to develop and test new systems that align with current evidence for comorbid presentations and underlying neurobiology, and are useful for predicting outcomes and guiding decisions regarding the provision of appropriate and effective care. Our highly personalised and measurement-based care model includes three core concepts: ▶ A multidimensional assessment and outcomes framework that includes: social and occupational function; self-harm, suicidal thoughts and behaviour; alcohol or other substance misuse; physical health; and illness trajectory. ▶ Clinical stage. ▶ Three common illness subtypes (psychosis, anxious depression, bipolar spectrum) based on proposed pathophysiological mechanisms (neurodevelopmental, hyperarousal, circadian). The model explicitly aims to prevent progression to more complex and severe forms of illness and is better aligned to contemporary models of the patterns of emergence of psychopathology. Inherent within this highly personalised approach is the incorporation of other evidence-based processes, including real-time measurement-based care as well as utilisation of multidisciplinary teams of health professionals. Data-driven local system modelling and personalised health information technologies provide crucial infrastructure support to these processes for better access to, and higher quality, mental health care for young people. CHAPTER 1: MULTIDIMENSIONAL OUTCOMES IN YOUTH MENTAL HEALTH CARE: WHAT MATTERS AND WHY?: Mood and psychotic syndromes present one of the most serious public health challenges that we face in the 21st century. Factors including prevalence, age of onset, and chronicity contribute to substantial burden and secondary risks such as alcohol or other substance misuse. Mood and psychotic syndromes most often emerge during adolescence and young adulthood, a period characterised by major physical and social change; thus, effects can have long term consequences. We propose five key domains which make up a multidimensional outcomes framework that aims to address the specific needs of young people presenting to health services with emerging mental illness. These include social and occupational function; self-harm, suicidal thoughts and behaviours; alcohol or other substance misuse; physical health; and illness type, stage and trajectory. Impairment and concurrent morbidity are well established in young people by the time they present for mental health care. Despite this, services and health professionals tend to focus on only one aspect of the presentation - illness type, stage and trajectory - and are often at odds with the preferences of young people and their families. There is a need to address the disconnect between mental health, physical health and social services and interventions, to ensure that youth mental health care focuses on the outcomes that matter to young people. CHAPTER 2: COMBINING CLINICAL STAGE AND PATHOPHYSIOLOGICAL MECHANISMS TO UNDERSTAND ILLNESS TRAJECTORIES IN YOUNG PEOPLE WITH EMERGING MOOD AND PSYCHOTIC SYNDROMES: Traditional diagnostic classification systems for mental disorders map poorly onto the early stages of illness experienced by young people, and purport categorical distinctions that are not readily supported by research into genetic, environmental and neurobiological risk factors. Consequently, a key clinical challenge in youth mental health is to develop and test new classification systems that align with current evidence on comorbid presentations, are consistent with current understanding of underlying neurobiology, and provide utility for predicting outcomes and guiding decisions regarding the provision of appropriate and effective care. This chapter outlines a transdiagnostic framework for classifying common adolescent-onset mood and psychotic syndromes, combining two independent but complementary dimensions: clinical staging, and three proposed pathophysiological mechanisms. Clinical staging reflects the progression of mental disorders and is in line with the concept used in general medicine, where more advanced stages are associated with a poorer prognosis and a need for more intensive interventions with a higher risk-to-benefit ratio. The three proposed pathophysiological mechanisms are neurodevelopmental abnormalities, hyperarousal and circadian dysfunction, which, over time, have illness trajectories (or pathways) to psychosis, anxious depression and bipolar spectrum disorders, respectively. The transdiagnostic framework has been evaluated in young people presenting to youth mental health clinics of the University of Sydney's Brain and Mind Centre, alongside a range of clinical and objective measures. Our research to date provides support for this framework, and we are now exploring its application to the development of more personalised models of care. CHAPTER 3: A COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK FOR YOUTH MENTAL HEALTH: GUIDING HIGHLY PERSONALISED AND MEASUREMENT-BASED CARE USING MULTIDIMENSIONAL AND OBJECTIVE MEASURES: There is an urgent need for improved care for young people with mental health problems, in particular those with subthreshold mental disorders that are not sufficiently severe to meet traditional diagnostic criteria. New comprehensive assessment frameworks are needed to capture the biopsychosocial profile of a young person to drive highly personalised and measurement-based mental health care. We present a range of multidimensional measures involving five key domains: social and occupational function; self-harm, suicidal thoughts and behaviours; alcohol or other substance misuse; physical health; and illness type, stage and trajectory. Objective measures include: neuropsychological function; sleep-wake behaviours and circadian rhythms; metabolic and immune markers; and brain structure and function. The recommended multidimensional measures facilitate the development of a comprehensive clinical picture. The objective measures help to further develop informative and novel insights into underlying pathophysiological mechanisms and illness trajectories to guide personalised care plans. A panel of specific multidimensional and objective measures are recommended as standard clinical practice, while others are recommended secondarily to provide deeper insights with the aim of revealing alternative clinical paths for targeted interventions and treatments matched to the clinical stage and proposed pathophysiological mechanisms of the young person. CHAPTER 4: PERSONALISING CARE OPTIONS IN YOUTH MENTAL HEALTH: USING MULTIDIMENSIONAL ASSESSMENT, CLINICAL STAGE, PATHOPHYSIOLOGICAL MECHANISMS, AND INDIVIDUAL ILLNESS TRAJECTORIES TO GUIDE TREATMENT SELECTION: New models of mental health care for young people require that interventions be matched to illness type, clinical stage, underlying pathophysiological mechanisms and individual illness trajectories. Narrow syndrome-focused classifications often direct clinical attention away from other key factors such as functional impairment, self-harm and suicidality, alcohol or other substance misuse, and poor physical health. By contrast, we outline a treatment selection guide for early intervention for adolescent-onset mood and psychotic syndromes (ie, active treatments and indicated and more specific secondary prevention strategies). This guide is based on experiences with the Brain and Mind Centre's highly personalised and measurement-based care model to manage youth mental health. The model incorporates three complementary core concepts: ▶A multidimensional assessment and outcomes framework including: social and occupational function; self-harm, suicidal thoughts and behaviours; alcohol or other substance misuse; physical health; and illness trajectory. ▶Clinical stage. ▶Three common illness subtypes (psychosis, anxious depression, bipolar spectrum) based on three underlying pathophysiological mechanisms (neurodevelopmental, hyperarousal, circadian). These core concepts are not mutually exclusive and together may facilitate improved outcomes through a clinical stage-appropriate and transdiagnostic framework that helps guide decisions regarding the provision of appropriate and effective care options. Given its emphasis on adolescent-onset mood and psychotic syndromes, the Brain and Mind Centre's model of care also respects a fundamental developmental perspective - categorising childhood problems (eg, anxiety and neurodevelopmental difficulties) as risk factors and respecting the fact that young people are in a period of major biological and social transition. Based on these factors, a range of social, psychological and pharmacological interventions are recommended, with an emphasis on balancing the personal benefit-to-cost ratio. CHAPTER 5: A SERVICE DELIVERY MODEL TO SUPPORT HIGHLY PERSONALISED AND MEASUREMENT-BASED CARE IN YOUTH MENTAL HEALTH: Over the past decade, we have seen a growing focus on creating mental health service delivery models that better meet the unique needs of young Australians. Recent policy directives from the Australian Government recommend the adoption of stepped-care services to improve the appropriateness of care, determined by severity of need. Here, we propose that a highly personalised approach enhances stepped-care models by incorporating clinical staging and a young person's current and multidimensional needs. It explicitly aims to prevent progression to more complex and severe forms of illness and is better aligned to contemporary models of the patterns of emergence of psychopathology. Inherent within a highly personalised approach is the incorporation of other evidence-based processes, including real-time measurement-based care and use of multidisciplinary teams of health professionals. Data-driven local system modelling and personalised health information technologies provide crucial infrastructure support to these processes for better access to, and higher quality of, mental health care for young people.

Project Synergy: co-designing technology-enabled solutions for Australian mental health services reform

Project Synergy aims to test the potential of new and emerging technologies to enhance the quality of mental health care provided by traditional face-to-face services. Specifically, it seeks to ensure that consumers get the right care, first time (delivery of effective mental health care early in the course of illness). Using co-design with affected individuals, Project Synergy has built, implemented and evaluated an online platform to assist the assessment, feedback, management and monitoring of people with mental disorders. It also promotes the maintenance of wellbeing by collating health and social information from consumers, their supportive others and health professionals. This information is reported back openly to consumers and their service providers to promote genuine collaborative care. The online platform does not provide stand-alone medical or health advice, risk assessment, clinical diagnosis or treatment; instead, it supports users to decide what may be suitable care options. Using an iterative cycle of research and development, the first four studies of Project Synergy (2014-2016) involved the development of different types of online prototypes for young people (i) attending university; (ii) in three disadvantaged communities in New South Wales; (iii) at risk of suicide; and (iv) attending five headspace centres. These contributed valuable information concerning the co-design, build, user testing and evaluation of prototypes, as well as staff experiences during development and service quality improvements following implementation. Through ongoing research and development (2017-2020), these prototypes underpin one online platform that aims to support better multidimensional mental health outcomes for consumers; more efficient, effective and appropriate use of health professional knowledge and clinical skills; and quality improvements in mental health service delivery.

Exploring associations between early substance use and longitudinal socio-occupational functioning in young people engaged in a mental health service

Neuropsychiatric disorders (including substance misuse) are associated with the greatest burden of functional disability in young people, and contributory factors remain poorly understood. Early-onset substance use is one candidate risk factor which may inform functional prognosis and facilitate direction of interventions aiming to curtail impairment. Accordingly, we modelled associations between early-onset use of alcohol, tobacco, cannabis and amphetamine-type stimulants (ATSs) and longitudinal socio-occupational functioning (indexed by the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale) in an observational cohort presenting to early intervention mental health services. A clinical proforma collated demographic, clinical, and socio-occupational information for up to 60-months from presentation to services in young people aged 17-30. Of the wider cohort (n = 2398), 446 participants were selected with complete alcohol and substance use data. Latent class analysis was used to derive an 'early-onset' (n = 243) and 'later-onset' class (n = 203) based on age of first use of alcohol, tobacco, cannabis and ATSs. Maximum-likelihood multilevel analyses modelled functioning over time in care and tested associations with substance use latent class, age, gender and diagnosis. Membership in the 'early-onset' class (B = -1.64, p = 0.05), male gender (B = -3.27, p<0.001) and psychotic disorder diagnosis (B = -7.62, p<0.001) were associated with poorer functioning at presentation and at least one other time-point. To our knowledge, this is the first study to explore associations of early-onset substance use and longitudinal functioning in a cohort of young people with mental disorders. The identified factors may be useful for directing specific social (e.g. Social Recovery Therapy) or occupational (e.g. Individual Placement and Support) interventions to at-risk individuals, early in illness course.