Incidence and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma in Caucasian chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir

Inhibition of hepatitis B virus through PPAR-JAK/STAT pathway modulation by electroacupuncture and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate combination therapy

BACKGROUND

Acupuncture combined with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) has shown promise in treating chronic hepatitis B (CHB), though mechanisms remain unclear. This study evaluates the antiviral effects of combining acupuncture with NAs against hepatitis B virus (HBV) and explores underlying mechanisms.

METHODS

The HBV-infected mouse model, established using the high-pressure hydrodynamic method, was divided into three groups: normal saline (NS), tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TF), and electroacupuncture combined with TF (E_T), n = 6. Antiviral effects were assessed by monitoring HBV DNA, HBsAg, and HBeAg levels weekly. Mechanistic insights were gained via transcriptomics, metabolomics, and 16S rDNA sequencing, validated by WB, PCR, and flow cytometry.

RESULTS

Serum HBV DNA levels decreased by 1.98 log10 IU/mL in TF and 2.2 log10 IU/mL in E_T groups compared to NS. Serum HBeAg decreased by 10.61 % in TF and 35.75 % in E_T, while HBsAg decreased by 7.38 % and 37.58 %, respectively. Multi-omics indicated E_T modulates the PPAR pathway, upregulates taurine and all-trans-retinoic acid, and increases gut microbiota like Bacteroides and Blautia. E_T also enhanced tight junction proteins (ZO-1, Occludin, Claudin-4), improving intestinal barrier integrity. Mechanistically, E_T inhibited the PGC-1α/PPAR-α/SIRT1 pathway, reducing PGC-1α, PPAR-α, SIRT1, RXRα, and HNF4α, while promoting JAK/STAT signaling via IFN-γ, p-JAK1, p-JAK2, p-STAT1, IRF8, and suppressing SOCS-1.

CONCLUSION

E_T more effectively inhibited HBV replication, showing superior antigen inhibition, particularly HBsAg, than TF alone. This may be due to PPAR-JAK/STAT pathway regulation, suggesting E_T as a potential adjuvant therapy for CHB, especially in achieving a functional cure.

High serum growth differentiation factor 15 is a risk factor for the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs

AIM

Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remain at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) even with nucleos(t)ide analog therapy. We evaluated risk factors for HCC development, including serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) RNA, hepatitis B core-related antigen level, and growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15) level, a predictor of HCC development in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

METHODS

We collected clinical data and stored serum from CHB patients without a history of HCC who were receiving nucleos(t)ide analog treatment for more than 1 year and whose HBV DNA level was less than 3.0 log IU/mL. We measured the serum levels of HBV RNA and GDF15.

RESULTS

Among 242 CHB patients, 57 had detectable HBV RNA, and GDF15 was quantified in all patients. The median GDF15 level was 0.86 ng/mL. Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that male sex and higher GDF15, FIB-4 index, alpha-fetoprotein and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase were independent risk factors for HCC. The presence of HBV RNA above the lower limit of quantification was not a risk factor. When we set cutoff values based on the Youden index, the cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly higher in the male, AFP ≥3.0 ng/mL, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase ≥22 U/L, FIB-4 index ≥1.93, and GDF-15 ≥1.17 ng/mL groups. In patients with no or more than three of these five risk factors, the 10-year HCC cumulative incidence rates were 0% and 41.0%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

High serum GDF15 is an independent risk factor for the occurrence of HCC in CHB patients treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs.

Predictive Risk Factors and Scoring Systems Associated with the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection constitutes a leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. The identification of HCC risk factors and the development of prognostic risk scores are essential for early diagnosis and prognosis. The aim of this observational, retrospective study was to evaluate baseline risk factors associated with HCC in CHB. Six hundred thirty-two consecutive adults with CHB (n = 632) [median age: 46 (IQR: 24)], attending the outpatients' Hepatology clinics between 01/1993-09/2020 were evaluated. Core promoter mutations and cirrhosis-HCC (GAG-HCC), Chinese University-HCC (CU-HCC), risk estimation for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B (REACH-B), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and Platelet Age Gender-HBV (PAGE-B) prognostic scores were calculated, and receiver operating curves were used to assess their prognostic performance. HCC was developed in 34 (5.38%) patients. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, advanced age (HR: 1.086, 95% CI: 1.037-1.137), male sex (HR: 7.696, 95% CI: 1.971-30.046), alcohol abuse (HR: 2.903, 95% CI: 1.222-6.987) and cirrhosis (HR: 21.239, 95% CI: 6.001-75.167) at baseline were independently associated with the development of HCC. GAG-HCC and PAGE-B showed the highest performance with c-statistics of 0.895 (95% CI: 0.829-0.961) and 0.857 (95% CI: 0.791-0.924), respectively. In the subgroup of patients with cirrhosis, the performance of all scores declined. When treated and untreated patients were studied separately, the discriminatory ability of the scores differed. In conclusion, HCC development was independently associated with advanced age, male sex, alcohol abuse, and baseline cirrhosis among a diverse population with CHB. GAG-HCC and PAGE-B showed high discriminatory performance to assess the risk of HCC development in these patients, but these performances declined in the subgroup of patients with cirrhosis. Further research to develop scores more specific to certain CHB subgroups is needed.

A prediction nomogram for hepatitis B virus-associated hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The present study aimed to develop and validate a new nomogram for predicting the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients receiving antiviral therapy from real-world data.

METHODS

The nomogram was established based on a real-world retrospective study of 764 patients with HBV from October 2008 to July 2020. A predictive model for the incidence of HCC was developed by multivariable Cox regression, and a nomogram was constructed. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were assessed by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Risk group stratification was performed to assess the predictive capacity of the nomogram. The nomogram was compared to three current commonly used predictive models.

RESULTS

A total of 764 patients with HBV were recruited for this study. Age, family history of HCC, alcohol consumption, and Aspartate aminotransferase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) were all independent risk predictors of HCC in CHB patients. The constructed nomogram had good discrimination with a C-index of 0.811. The calibration curve and DCA also proved the reliability and accuracy of the nomogram. Three risk groups (low, moderate, and high) with significantly different prognoses were identified (p < 0.001). The model's performance was significantly better than that of other risk models.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram was superior in predicting HCC risk among CHB patients who received antiviral treatment. The model can be utilized in clinical practice to aid decision-making on the strategy of long-term HCC surveillance, especially for moderate- and high-risk patients.

Histological features of chronic hepatitis B patients with normal alanine aminotransferase according to different criteria

BACKGROUND

The upper limits of normal (ULNs) for alanine aminotransferase (ALT) are different among international guidelines for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to investigate the proportion of significant histological disease in Asian patients with CHB with detectable hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA under diverse ALT ULNs.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with CHB and detectable HBV DNA who underwent liver biopsy were retrospectively included from four tertiary hospitals. Above grade 2 inflammation and stage 2 fibrosis were defined as significant inflammation and significant fibrosis, respectively. Significant histological disease was defined as above grade 2 inflammation or stage 2 fibrosis.

RESULTS

Among the 414 patients with detectable HBV DNA and normal ALT, the proportion of those with significant histological disease was lower (59.7%) according to the ULN for ALT at 30/19 U/L (male/female), while the corresponding proportions were 66.7% and 62.3% according to the ULNs of 40 U/L and 35/25 U/L (male/female), respectively. In patients with detectable HBV DNA and normal ALT levels without significant fibrosis, the proportions of significant inflammation were comparable among different ULNs of ALT at 40 U/L (30.7%), 35/25 U/L (27.3%) and 30/19 U/L (25.0%). The proportion of significant histological disease was significantly lower in patients with normal ALT for 2 determinations at least 6 months apart compared to patients with normal ALT once.

CONCLUSIONS

Although a more stringent ALT ULN may reduce the risk of the presence of significant histological disease in patients with detectable HBV DNA, the rates of significant histological disease remain high. Persistently normal ALT levels are more important for excluding patients with CHB with a high probability of significant histological disease.

Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Receiving Finite Periods of Antiviral Therapy

PURPOSE

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most severe complications in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. HCC can still develop in patients with chronic HBV (CHB) infection undergoing antiviral therapy. Several effective scoring systems for the prediction of HCC risk in CHB patients have been established. However, very few of them are designed for CHB patients receiving nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) therapy. Furthermore, none are available for HCC risk prediction in CHB patients receiving finite periods of antiviral therapy.

METHODS

This study enrolled 790 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with CHB infection who had visited our liver clinics from 2008 to 2012 for pretreatment assessment before receiving antiviral therapies. The treatments were provided at finite periods according to the National Health Insurance Policy in Taiwan. The last follow-up date was 31 December 2021. We analyzed the virological and clinical factors in these 790 CHB patients receiving finite periods of NA treatments and identified the most significant risk factors for HCC to establish a novel predictive scoring system. By using stepwise selection in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, we divided the patients into three risk groups.

RESULTS

Our predictive scoring system included five independent variables: genotype C (adjusted HR [aHR] = 2.23), NA-withdraw-related hepatitis relapse (aHR = 6.96), male (aHR = 4.19), liver cirrhosis (aHR = 11.14), and T1768A core promoter mutation (aHR = 3.21). This model revealed significant differences in HCC incidence among the three risk groups. The 5-year cumulative HCC risk significantly differed among the three risk groups (low risk: 1.33%, moderate risk: 4.99%, and high risk: 17.46%), with log-rank test p < 0.001.

CONCLUSION

Our predictive scoring system is a promising tool for the prediction of HCC in CHB patients receiving finite NA treatments. Genotype C, NA-withdraw-related hepatitis relapse, male gender, liver cirrhosis, and the T1768A HBV core promoter mutation were significant independent risk factors.

Proto-Oncogene FAM50A Can Regulate the Immune Microenvironment and Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma In Vitro and In Vivo

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a vital global health problem. The characteristics are high morbidity, high mortality, difficulty in early diagnosis and insensitivity to chemotherapy. The main therapeutic schemes for treating HCC mainly include Tyrosine kinase inhibitors represented by sorafenib and lenvatinib. In recent years, immunotherapy for HCC has also achieved certain results. However, a great number of patients failed to benefit from systemic therapies. FAM50A belongs to the FAM50 family and can be used as a DNA-binding protein or transcription factor. It may take part in the splicing of RNA precursors. In studies of cancer, FAM50A has been demonstrated to participate in the progression of myeloid breast cancer and chronic lymphocytic leukemia. However, the effect of FAM50A on HCC is still unknown. In this study, we have demonstrated the cancer-promoting effects and diagnostic value of FAM50A in HCC using multiple databases and surgical samples. We identified the role of FAM50A in the tumor immune microenvironment (TIME) and immunotherapy efficacy in HCC. We also proved the effects of FAM50A on the malignancy of HCC in vitro and in vivo. In conclusion, we confirmed that FAM50A is an important proto-oncogene in HCC. FAM50A acts as a diagnostic marker, immunomodulator and therapeutic target for HCC.

Protective Effect of the Polysaccharides from Taraxacum mongolicum Leaf by Modulating the p53 Signaling Pathway in H22 Tumor-Bearing Mice

Dandelion is an edible plant with a variety of bioactive components. This paper mainly reports the antitumor activity of dandelion polysaccharide DLP120 on H22 tumor-bearing mice. DLP120 is an acidic polysaccharide composed of pectin and arabinogalactan. The results indicate that DLP120 markedly inhibited tumor growth in a dose-dependent manner and attenuated and regulated negative effects on organs. In addition, DLP120 not only increased the viability of spleen lymphocytes and natural killer (NK) cells, but also increased the proportion of lymphocyte subsets in peripheral blood. Furthermore, Hematoxylin-Eosin (HE) staining showed that tumor tissues and cells exhibited typical pathology features. Annexin V FITC/PI staining and cell cycle distribution results further confirmed apoptosis and cell cycle arrest in S and G2 phases. Notably, there was a significant accumulation of reactive oxygen species. Western blotting results demonstrated that the expression of p53 was up-regulated in the DLP120 group. Moreover, the pro-apoptotic protein Bax was up-regulated while the inhibitory-apoptotic protein Bcl-2 was down-regulated. In addition, the expression of Fas and FasL, associated with the death receptor pathway, were also up-regulated. Overall, administration of DLP120 in H22 tumor-bearing mice can not only enhance immunity but also directly induce tumor cell apoptosis.

Older Age and High α-Fetoprotein Predict Higher Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis-B-Related Cirrhotic Patients Receiving Long-Term Nucleos(t)ide Analogue Therapy

Background: Nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs) were proved to reduce hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients, but data were limited on their efficacy in cirrhotic CHB patients. Methods: A total of 447 cirrhotic CHB patients treated with tenofovir/entecavir were retrospectively analyzed and divided into HCC (n = 48) and non-HCC (n = 399) groups. The median follow-up period was 62.1 months. Results: A total of 48 patients (10.7%) developed HCC during surveillance. The annual incidence rate of HCC was 2.04 per 100 person-years. The cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.9%, 9.8%, and 22.1% at 1, 5, and 10 years, respectively. Significant predictors for HCC identified using a multiple Cox regression analysis were age ≥50 years (hazard ratio (HR): 2.34) and α-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥8 ng/mL (HR: 2.05). The incidence rate of HCC was 8.67-fold higher in patients with age ≥50 years and AFP ≥8 ng/mL (3.14 per 100 person-years) than those with age <50 years and AFP <8 ng/mL (0.36 per 100 person-years). Conclusions: Cirrhotic CHB patients with age <50 years and AFP <8 ng/mL had the lowest annual incidence of HCC. However, those with age ≥50 years or/and AFP ≥8 ng/mL had a significantly higher risk for HCC development and warrant a careful surveillance schedule.

Viral hepatitis and hepatocellular carcinoma: From molecular pathways to the role of clinical surveillance and antiviral treatment

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a global health challenge. Due to the high prevalence in low-income countries, hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus infections remain the main risk factors for HCC occurrence, despite the increasing frequencies of non-viral etiologies. In addition, hepatitis D virus coinfection increases the oncogenic risk in patients with HBV infection. The molecular processes underlying HCC development are complex and various, either independent from liver disease etiology or etiology-related. The reciprocal interlinkage among non-viral and viral risk factors, the damaged cellular microenvironment, the dysregulation of the immune system and the alteration of gut-liver-axis are known to participate in liver cancer induction and progression. Oncogenic mechanisms and pathways change throughout the natural history of viral hepatitis with the worsening of liver fibrosis. The high risk of cancer incidence in chronic viral hepatitis infected patients compared to other liver disease etiologies makes it necessary to implement a proper surveillance, both through clinical-biochemical scores and periodic ultrasound assessment. This review aims to outline viral and microenvironmental factors contributing to HCC occurrence in patients with chronic viral hepatitis and to point out the importance of surveillance programs recommended by international guidelines to promote early diagnosis of HCC.

Impact of National Volume-Based Procurement on the Procurement Volumes and Spending for Antiviral Medications of Hepatitis B Virus

Introduction: Although persistent inhibition of HBV replication by antiviral therapy has shown to slow disease progression, cost-related access barriers to these essential medicines are becoming salient. The national volume-based procurement (NVBP) was piloted in China and led to substantial reduction in the list price of prescription drugs. To examine the impact of NVBP on selected antiviral medication costs per defined daily dose (DDD), procurement volumes, and spending. Methods: We employed an interrupted time series design to examine changes in cost per defined daily dose (DDD), procurement volumes, and spending for NVBP bid-winning antiviral medications (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and entecavir) in 11 pilot cities from 2017 to 2020. Procurement transaction data were obtained from 9,454 hospitals in the Chinese Hospital Pharmaceutical Audit (CHPA) database. In the secondary analysis, the control group comprised two non-NVBP drugs (adefovir and lamivudine) procured in 11 cities not exposed to the NVBP. Results: Cost per DDD of the two hepatitis B virus (HBV) antiviral medications reduced by CNY1.598 (p = 0.002) immediately following the implementation of NVBP, dropping from an average cost of CNY16.483 per DDD at baseline to CNY6.420 at the end of the observation period. NVBP implementation resulted in a substantial reduction in daily costs of antivirals and an increase in monthly procurement volumes by 6.674 million DDDs (p = 0.017), while monthly spending was reduced by CNY138.26 million (p = 0.002). In the secondary ITS analysis with a control group, the average cost per DDD of the NVBP bid-winning antivirals declined by CNY4.537 (p < 0.001), monthly procurement volumes increased by 7.209 million DDDs (p = 0.002), and monthly spending dropped by CNY138.83 million (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Volume-based procurement piloted in China may be effective for reducing price and total expenditures and improving drug utilization, which is especially important for HBV patients who need constant access to antiviral therapies.

Occult hepatitis B virus infection in hepatitis C virus negative chronic liver diseases

Data concerning the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) occult infection (OBI) varies greatly in the different studies according to the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic approaches and the HBV prevalence in the different populations examined. The clinical implications of OBI are still debated. While the impact of OBI in HBV transmission as well as in HBV reactivation under immunosuppression are well established, the role of OBI in liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development are still not definitively elucidated. It has been hypothesized that OBI might contribute to worsening the liver disease course when other causes of liver damage co-exist. Furthermore, much evidence suggests a role of OBI in the hepato-carcinogenesis processes through both indirect and direct oncogenic mechanisms that might favour HCC development. Data on the OBI clinical implications mainly come from studies performed in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. However, HCV prevalence has dramatically fallen in the past years also because of the advent of specific and highly effective direct acting antivirals, with a consequent abrupt change of the worldwide scenario of chronic liver disease. Information about OBI prevalence and possible clinical impact in non-HCV-related liver disease are fragmentary, and the objective of this review is to critically summarize the available data in this field.

Hepatitis B, C and D virus infections and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in Africa: A meta-analysis including sensitivity analyses for studies comparable for confounders

Introduction

Africa denotes unique facies for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) characterized by a conjunction of low sensitization, restricted access to diagnosis and treatment and associated with the highest incidence and mortality in the world. We investigated whether hepatitis B (HBV), C (HCV) and D (VHD) viruses were etiological agents of HCC in Africa.

Methods

Relevant articles were searched in PubMed, Web of Science, African Index Medicus, and African Journal Online databases, as well as manual searches in relevant reviews and included articles. Analytical studies from Africa evaluating the association between HCC development and HBV, HCV, and HDV were included. Relevant studies were selected, data extracted, and the risk of bias assessed independently by at least 2 investigators. The association was estimated using odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence interval (95% CI) determined by a random-effects model. Sources of heterogeneity were determined by subgroup analyses.

Results

A total of 36 case-control studies were included. With controls having non-hepatic disease, the overall results suggested a significantly increased risk of HCC in patients with HBV (HBeAg (OR = 19.9; 95% CI = [3.7–105.2]), HBsAg (OR = 9.9; 95%) CI = [6.2–15.6]) and DNA (OR = 8.9; 95% CI = [5.9–13.4]); HCV (Anti-HCV (OR = 9.4; 95% CI = [6.3–14.0]) and RNA (OR = 16.5; 95% CI = [7.8–34.6]); HDV (Anti-VHD, (OR = 25.8; 95% CI = [5.9–112.2]); and HBV/HCV coinfections (HBV DNA/HCV RNA (OR = 22.5; 95% CI = [1.3–387.8]). With apparently healthy controls, the overall results suggested a significantly increased risk of HCC in patients with HBV (HBsAg, (OR = 8.9; 95% CI = [6.0–13.0]); HCV (Anti-HCV, (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = [5.6–10.6]); and HBV/HCV coinfections (HBsAg/Anti-HCV (OR = 7.8; 95% CI = [4.4–13.6]) Substantial heterogeneity and the absence of publication bias were recorded for these results.

Conclusions

In Africa, HBV/HCV coinfections and HBV, HCV, and HDV infections are associated with an increased risk of developing HCC. The implementation of large-scale longitudinal and prospective studies including healthy participants to search for early biomarkers of the risk of progression to HCC is urgently needed.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Hepatitis B Virus-Infected Patients and the Role of Hepatitis B Surface Antigen (HBsAg)

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is among the main risk factors for HCC. The risk of HCC is not eliminated completely after viral suppression, due to HBV DNA integrated into human chromosomes. Cirrhosis, HBV viral DNA levels, age, male gender, the immune response of the host against HBV, and a combination of obesity and diabetes are among the main risk factors for HCC. Active viral replication and long-standing active disease with inflammation are associated with a higher risk of HCC. Treatment of HBV with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) decreased HCC risk by effectively decreasing viral load and inflammation. Similar risk factors have been reported in hepatitis B patients after seroclearance. Studies have reported decreased risk of HCC after seroclearance, but there were also conflicting results from a few studies indicating no difference in risk of developing HCC. The difference in HCC rates could be because of other factors such as coinfection, occult HBV infection, family history, HBV genotype, and other comorbidities. Due to the persistent risk of HCC after seroclearance, HCC surveillance is critical for early detection, especially in high-risk patients. However, long-term studies might be needed to further validate the results.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Viral Hepatitis: Where Do We Stand?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the major causes of cancer-related death. Although the burden of alcohol- and NASH-related HCC is growing, chronic viral hepatitis (HBV and HCV) remains a major cause of HCC development worldwide. The pathophysiology of viral-related HCC includes liver inflammation, oxidative stress, and deregulation of cell signaling pathways. HBV is particularly oncogenic because, contrary to HCV, integrates in the cell DNA and persists despite virological suppression by nucleotide analogues. Surveillance by six-month ultrasound is recommended in patients with cirrhosis and in "high-risk" patients with chronic HBV infection. Antiviral therapy reduces the risks of development and recurrence of HCC; however, patients with advanced chronic liver disease remain at risk of HCC despite virological suppression/cure and should therefore continue surveillance. Multiple scores have been developed in patients with chronic hepatitis B to predict the risk of HCC development and may be used to stratify individual patient's risk. In patients with HCV-related liver disease who achieve sustained virological response by direct acting antivirals, there is a strong need for markers/scores to predict long-term risk of HCC. In this review, we discuss the most recent advances regarding viral-related HCC.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction Models in Chronic Hepatitis B: A Systematic Review of 14 Models and External Validation

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The aim of our study was to characterize the performance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients through meta-analysis followed by external validation.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of current literature, followed by external validation in independent multi-center cohort with 986 patients with CHB undergoing entecavir treatment (median follow-up: 4.7 years). Model performance to predict HCC within 3, 5, 7, and 10 years was assessed using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration index. Subgroup analysis were conducted by treatment status, cirrhotic, race and baseline alanine aminotransferase.

RESULTS

We identified 14 models with 123,885 patients (5,452 HCC cases), with REACH-B, CU-HCC, GAG-HCC, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models being broadly externally validated. Discrimination was generally acceptable for all models, with pooled AUC ranging from 0.70 (95% CI, 0.63-0.76 for REACH-B) to 0.83 (95% CI, 0.78-0.87 for REAL-B) for 3-year, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.73 for REACH-B) to 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.85 for REAL-B) for 5-year and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.58-0.80 for PAGE-B) to 0.81 (95% CI, 0.78-0.84 for REAL-B and 0.77-0.86 for AASL-HCC) for 10-year prediction. However, calibration performance was poorly reported in most studies. In external validation cohort, REAL-B showed highest discrimination with 0.76 (95% CI, 0.69-0.83) and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.70-0.81) for 3 and 5-year prediction. The REAL-B model was also well calibrated in the external validation cohort (3-year Brier score 0.066). Results were consistent in subgroup analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

In a systematic review of available HCC models, the REAL-B model exhibited best discrimination and calibration.

Secular trend of treatment uptake in patients with chronic hepatitis B: A territory-wide study of 135 395 patients from 2000 to 2017

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The uptake of antiviral treatment for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) has been suboptimal. We aimed to determine the secular trend of treatment uptake in the territory-wide CHB cohort in Hong Kong from 2000 to 2017 and the factors for no treatment despite fulfilling treatment criteria.

METHODS

Chronic hepatitis B patients under public clinics and hospitals were identified through electronic medical records. The treatment indications were defined according to the Asian-Pacific guidelines published at the time of patients' first appearance in four periods: 2000-2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2013, and 2014-2017.

RESULTS

There were 135 395 CHB patients were included; 1493/12472 (12.0%), 7416/43426 (17.1%), 10 129/46559 (21.8%), 8051/32 938 (24.4%) patients fulfilled treatment criteria in the four periods, respectively. The treatment uptake rate increased with time: 35.1%, 43.4%, 60.2%, and 68.6% respectively. High fibrosis indices (APRI, FIB-4, and Forns indices) appeared to be the main factors for treatment indication in non-cirrhotic patients, with over 90% fulfilling treatment criteria due to high fibrosis indices alone. Of those fulfilling treatment criteria by high fibrosis indices, less than 60% of patients (25.2%, 36.1%, 46.0%, and 58.9%, respectively) had antiviral treatment initiated. Normal platelet count (odds ratio 0.42, P < 0.001) was the independent factor associated with not initiating antiviral treatment in patients fulfilling treatment criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment uptake rates have been increasing over time. Normal platelet count, which reflects less advanced liver disease, precludes patients from receiving antiviral treatment even if treatment indication is fulfilled. Hence, the importance to identify non-cirrhotic patients with significant liver fibrosis should be emphasized.

Virologic response maintenance and hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients treated with entecavir

INTRODUCTION

The treatment evidence for entecavir-treated chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients without maintaining of virologic response (MVR, defined as persistent HBV DNA <20 IU/mL during therapy) remains uncertain. We aimed to determine the relationship between non-MVR and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in entecavir-treated CHB patients.

METHODS

A cohort of 1447 entecavir-treated CHB patients were enrolled. Multivariate and propensity score-based inverse probability weighting (IPW) model was performed to estimate the effect of MVR on HCC.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 5 years, 214 (14.8%) patients occurred with non-MVR. Non-MVR patients had a higher risk of HCC [the IPW model: hazard ratio (HR) = 3.59, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.23-5.75] than MVR patients, especially in those with cirrhosis (HR = 4.60, 95% CI: 2.81-7.56) and the high HCC score by the Chinese University of Hong Kong (HR = 4.35, 95% CI: 2.58-7.32). MVR patients with transient (HR = 4.72, 95% CI: 1.98-11.24) or persistent (HR = 12.16, 95% CI: 3.58-41.31) abnormal ALT after virologic response had higher HCC hazard.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study indicated an elevated HCC probability for entecavir-treated CHB patients with Non-MVR, especially for those with cirrhosis or a high predicted score at baseline. For MVR patients, the trajectories of ALT after virologic response suggested different HCC risks.

Immunotherapeutic treatments in hepatocellular carcinoma; achievements, challenges and future prospects

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common and fatal malignancies with an alarming trend all around the world. Common therapeutic approaches in the early stage of disease are surgical resection, ablation, and liver transplantation. Due to the insidious identity of HCC, the majority of the patients are diagnosed at advanced stages, where tumor spreading, or distant metastasis unfortunately have already occurred. Immunotherapeutic options have elicited a promising approach in some malignancies with Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approving the first checkpoint inhibitor anti-cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4 (CTLA-4) ipilimumab for the treatment of melanoma ten years ago. In the past decade, many clinical trials have been investigating anti-CTLA-4 as well as anti-programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) therapies in various solid tumors, including HCC. In this mini-review we will discuss the latest clinical data from clinical trials for immune-checkpoint inhibitors for the treatment of HCC.

Controversies in the Management of Hepatitis B: Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatitis B is the leading cause of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) worldwide. Untreated, annual HCC incidence rates in chronic hepatitis B subjects are 0.4% in noncirrhotics and 2% to 3% in cirrhotics. Surveillance with ultrasound with/without α-fetoprotein at 6-month intervals is recommended in at-risk persons including children. Antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B with entecavir or tenofovir significantly lowers the risk of HCC across all stages of liver disease, and lowers the risk of HCC recurrence following curative therapy. There are insufficient data to recommend use of tenofovir over entecavir in the prevention of de novo or recurrent HCC postcurative therapy.

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic viral hepatitis: Is it time to personalize it?

Surveillance with abdominal ultrasound with or without alpha-fetoprotein is recommended by clinical practice guidelines for patients who are considered to be at risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), including those with cirrhosis, advanced fibrosis and special subgroups of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Application of the standard surveillance strategy to all patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) with or without cirrhosis imposes major sustainability and economic burdens on healthcare systems. Thus, a number of HCC risk scores were constructed, mainly from Asian cohorts, to stratify the HCC prediction in patients with CHB. Similarly, even if less than for CHB, a few scoring systems were developed for chronic hepatitis C patients or cirrhotic patients with CLD of different etiologies. Recently, a few newsworthy HCC-risk algorithms were developed for patients with cirrhosis using the combination of serologic HCC markers and clinical parameters. Overall, the HCC risk stratification appears at hand by several validated multiple score systems, but their optimal performance is obtained only in populations who show highly homogenous clinic-pathologic, epidemiologic, etiologic and therapeutic characteristics and this limitation poses a major drawback to their sustainable use in clinical practice. A better understanding of the dynamic process driving the progression from CLD to HCC derived from studies based on molecular approaches and genetics, epigenetics and liquid biopsy will enable the identification of new biomarkers to define the individual risk of HCC in the near future, with the possibility to achieve a real and cost/effective personalization of surveillance.

External Validation of aMAP Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Score in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhosis Receiving ETV or TDF Therapy

Background and Aim: A prediction model of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in patients with chronic liver diseases, based on age, male sex, albumin-bilirubin, and platelets (aMAP), has been previously reported. We validated the aMAP score and compared its performance to those of other risk scores in an independent at-risk cohort.

Methods: Treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B-related compensated cirrhosis who received entecavir or tenofovir monotherapy for at least 12 months were enrolled in this study. The performances of the aMAP and other HCC risk scores were assessed using Harrell's c-index, and predefined cut-off values were evaluated using survival analysis.

Results: Of the 1,042 patients, 131 (12.6%) developed HCC during a median follow-up of 41 months. The aMAP score provided the highest Harrell's c-index (0.724), followed by CAMD (0.719), mPAGE-B (0.719), and PAGE-B (0.695). The 5-year cumulative HCC probabilities were 2.9% for patients with a low aMAP score (<50), 11.2% for patients with an intermediate aMAP score (50–60), and 27.9% for patients with a high aMAP score (>60). Using both aMAP and mPAGE-B, 11.6% of patients were identified as low risk with a negative predictive value of 98.2% for not developing HCC within 5 years. Patients with aMAP >60 and diabetes exhibited an extremely high risk of HCC, with a cumulative incidence of 49.3% at 5 years. The predictive performance of aMAP with a reassessment at 1 year after the initiation of antiviral therapy outperformed the predictive performance of aMAP at enrollment.

Conclusions: The aMAP score accurately predicted the risk of HCC in at-risk patients with compensated cirrhosis undergoing antiviral therapy. A combination of the aMAP score and diabetes status could further stratify the risk of HCC.

Reporting and Performance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Prediction Models: Based on TRIPOD Statement and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The performance of risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) was uncertain. The aim of the study was to critically evaluate the reports of transparent and external validation performances of these prediction models based on system review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

A systematic search of the Web of Science and PubMed was performed for studies published until October 17, 2020. The transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for the individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD) tool was used to critically evaluate the quality of external validation reports for six models (CU-HCC, GAG-HCC, PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, REACH-B, and mREACH-B). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) values was to estimate the pooled external validating performance based on meta-analysis. Subgroup analysis and metaregression were also performed to explore heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Our meta-analysis included 22 studies published between 2011 and 2020. The compliance of the included studies to TRIPOD ranged from 59% to 90% (median, 74%; interquartile range (IQR), 70%, 79%). The AUC values of the six models ranged from 0.715 to 0.778. In the antiviral therapy subgroups, the AUC values of mREACH-B, GAG-HCC, and mPAGE-B were 0.785, 0.760, and 0.778, respectively. In the cirrhosis subgroup, all models had poor discrimination performance (AUC < 0.7).

CONCLUSIONS

A full report of calibration and handling of missing values would contribute to a greater improvement in the quality of external validation reports for CHB-related HCC risk prediction. It was necessary to develop a specific HCC risk prediction model for patients with cirrhosis.

Screening for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B: An Update

(1) Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an important cause of mortality in individuals with chronic hepatitis B infection, with screening of high-risk groups recommended in all major international guidelines. Our understanding of the risk factors involved has improved over time, encouraging researchers to develop models that predict future risk of HCC development. (2) Methods: A literature search of the PubMed database was carried out to identify studies that derive or validate models predicting HCC development in patients with chronic hepatitis B. Subsequently, a second literature search was carried out to explore the potential role of novel viral biomarkers in this field. (3) Results: To date, a total of 23 models have been developed predicting future HCC risk, of which 12 have been derived from cohorts of treatment-naïve individuals. Most models have been developed in Asian populations (n = 20), with a smaller number in Caucasian cohorts (n = 3). All of the models demonstrate satisfactory performance in their original derivation cohorts, but many lack external validation. In recent studies, novel viral biomarkers have demonstrated utility in predicting HCC risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B, amongst both treated and treatment-naïve patients. (4) Conclusion: Several models have been developed to predict the risk of HCC development in individuals with chronic hepatitis B infection, but many have not been externally validated outside of the Asian population. Further research is needed to refine these models and facilitate a more tailored HCC surveillance programme in the future.

Dynamics of liver stiffness-based risk prediction model during antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B

OBJECTIVE

The liver stiffness-based risk prediction models predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. We investigated the influence of antiviral therapy (AVT) on liver stiffness-based risk prediction model in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

METHODS

Patients with CHB who initiated AVT were retrospectively recruited from 13 referral Korean institutes. The modified risk estimation for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B (mREACH-B) model was selected for the analysis.

RESULTS

Between 2007 and 2015, 1034 patients with CHB were recruited. The mean age of the study population (639 men and 395 women) was 46.8 years. During AVT, the mREACH-B score significantly decreased from the baseline to 3 years of AVT (mean 9.21 → 7.46, P < 0.05) and was maintained until 5 years of AVT (mean 7.23, P > 0.05). The proportion of high-risk patients (mREACH-B score ≥11) was significantly reduced from the baseline to 2 years of AVT (36.4% → 16.4%, P < 0.001) and was maintained until 5 years of AVT (12.2%, P > 0.05). The mREACH-B scores at baseline and 1 year of AVT independently predicted HCC development (hazard ratio = 1.209-1.224) (all P < 0.05). The cumulative incidence rate of HCC was significantly different at 5 years of AVT among risk groups (high vs. high-intermediate vs. low-intermediate vs. low) from baseline (4.5% vs. 3.2% vs. 1.5% vs. 0.8%) and 1 year (11.8% vs. 4.6% vs. 1.8% vs. 0.6%) (all P < 0.05, log-rank tests).

CONCLUSIONS

The mREACH-B score was dynamically changed during AVT. Thus, repeated assessment of the mREACH-B score is required to predict the changing risk of HCC development in patients with CHB undergoing AVT.

Prediction models for development of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major health problem in Asian-Pacific regions. Antiviral therapy reduces, but does not completely prevent, HCC development. Thus, there is a need for accurate risk prediction to assist prognostication and decisions on the need for antiviral therapy and HCC surveillance. A few risk scores have been developed to predict the occurrence of HCC in CHB patients. Initially, the scores were derived from untreated CHB patients. With the development and extensive clinical application of nucleos(t)ide analog(s) (NA), the number of risk scores based on treated CHB patients has increased gradually. The components included in risk scores may be categorized into host factors and hepatitis B virus factors. Hepatitis activities, hepatitis B virus factors, and even liver fibrosis or cirrhosis are relatively controlled by antiviral therapy. Therefore, variables that are more dynamic during antiviral therapy have since been included in risk scores. However, host factors are more difficult to modify. Most existing scores derived from Asian populations have been confirmed to be accurate in predicting HCC development in CHB patients from Asia, while these scores have not offered excellent predictability in Caucasian patients. These findings support that more relevant variables should be considered to provide individualized predictions that are easily applied to CHB patients of different ethnicities. CHB patients should receive different intensities of HCC surveillance according to their risk category.

Validation of the HCC-RESCUE score to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Caucasian chronic hepatitis B patients under entecavir or tenofovir therapy

The HCC-RESCUE score was developed to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in Korean chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients under entecavir therapy. We aimed to validate the HCC-RESCUE score to predict HCC risk in Caucasian CHB patients under entecavir or tenofovir therapy and to compare the predictive performance of the HCC-RESCUE score with those of the CAMD, PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) scores. The study included 647 nucleos(t)ide analogue-naive noncirrhotic and compensated/decompensated cirrhotic patients who had received entecavir or tenofovir for ≥6 months and did not develop HCC during the first 6 months of therapy. Patients with HCC-RESCUE scores ≤64, 65-84 and ≥85 points were classified into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively. The AUROCs of the HCC-RESCUE, CAMD, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores to predict HCC risk at 5 years were 0.875, 0.870, 0.866 and 0.880, and those at 10 years were 0.862, 0.845, 0.841 and 0.862, respectively (both p > .05). Cumulative HCC incidences at 5 years were 0.0%, 10.5% and 15.8%, and those at 10 years were 1.4%, 15.5% and 24.9%, respectively, in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups based on the HCC-RESCUE score (both log rank p < .001). In the entecavir versus tenofovir cohorts, the AUROCs of the HCC-RESCUE score to predict HCC risk at 5 and 10 years were 0.831 versus 0.898 and 0.803 versus 0.910, respectively (both p > .05). The HCC-RESCUE score accurately predicted HCC risk in Caucasian CHB patients under entecavir or tenofovir therapy. A substantial proportion of patients can be dropped from HCC surveillance by using the HCC-RESCUE score.

Comparable Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Treated with Entecavir or Tenofovir

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Adherence to medication and maintained virologic response (MVR) are related to the risk of adverse clinical outcomes. This study aimed to compare the efficacy of entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) in relation to the adverse clinical outcomes among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients stratified according to adherence to medication and MVR.

METHODS

A total of 1794 treatment-naive CHB patients treated with ETV (n = 894) or TDF (n = 900) for > 1 year were identified.

RESULTS

Adherence rates were significantly higher in the TDF than in the ETV (93.4% vs. 89.1%, respectively; P < 0.001). The MVR of ETV and TDF were 64.5% and 71.7%, respectively (P = 0.001). The MVR of ETV and TDF in the good adherence group were 72.1% and 76.4%, respectively (P = 0.083); in the poor adherence group, the MVR of ETV and TDF were 63.0% and 54.0%, respectively (P = 0.384) Multivariate analysis showed that the risk of HCC and death or transplantation was similar between groups (HR 0.826, 95% CI 0.522-1.306; P = 0.413 and HR 0.636, 95% CI 0.258-1.569; P = 0.325, respectively) after adjusting for adherence to medication and MVR. In the 589 propensity-matched pairs of patients, risk of HCC and death or transplantation was similar between treatment groups after stratification according to adherence rates and MVR.

CONCLUSIONS

After adjustment for adherence and MVR, ETV, and TDF did not differ in terms of the risk of HCC and death or transplantation in all patients and propensity score-matched cohorts.

SASLT practice guidelines for the management of Hepatitis B virus - An update

Infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains an important public health problem with a high burden worldwide. The Saudi Association for the Study of Liver diseases and Transplantation formed a working group to develop HBV practice guidelines in Saudi Arabia. The methodology used to develop these guidelines was based on reviewing the available evidence, local data, and major international practice guidelines on the management of HBV. The aim of these guidelines is to assist healthcare providers in the management of HBV in Saudi Arabia. These updated guidelines summarize the latest local studies performed on HBV epidemiology, major changes in the prevalence of this virus, and advances in disease management.

Predictive performance of newer Asian hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores in treated Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B

Background & Aims

Recently, several risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were developed in cohorts of treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), but they have not been assessed in non-Asian patients. We evaluated the predictability and comparative utility of our PAGE-B and recent Asian HCC risk scores in nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA)-treated adult Caucasian patients with CHB, with or without well-documented compensated cirrhosis but not previous diagnosis of HCC.

Methods

We included 1,951 patients treated with entecavir/tenofovir and followed up for a median of 7.6 years. The c-statistic was used to estimate the predictability of PAGE-B, HCC-Rescue, CAMD, mPAGE-B, and AASL score for HCC development within 5 or 10 years. The low- and high-risk group cut-offs were used for estimation of negative (NPV) and positive predictive values (PPV), respectively.

Results

HCC developed in 103/1,951 (5.3%) patients during the first 5 years and in another 39/1,428 (2.7%) patients between years 5 and 10. The 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative HCC rates were 3.3%, 5.9%, and 9.6%, respectively. All scores offered good 5- and 10-year HCC prediction (c-statistic: 0.78–0.82). NPVs were always >99% (99.3–100%), whereas PPV ranged between 13% and 24%.

Conclusions

In NA-treated Caucasian patients with CHB including compensated cirrhosis, HCC risk scores developed in NA-treated Asian patients offer good 5- and 10-year HCC predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B. PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler in clinical practice, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis, but the addition of albumin in mPAGE-B score does not seem to offer an advantage in patients with well compensated liver disease.

Lay summary

Several risk scores for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were recently developed in cohorts of treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). In Caucasian patients with CHB treated with oral antivirals, newer Asian HCC risk scores offer good 5- and 10-year HCC predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B. For clinical practice, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis.

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In treated Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B, newer Asian hepatocellular carcinoma risk scores offer good 5- and 10-year predictability, similar to that of PAGE-B.

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PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores are simpler in clinical practice, as they do not require an accurate diagnosis of cirrhosis.

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The addition of albumin in mPAGE-B does not seem to offer an advantage in patients with well-compensated liver disease.

Assessing efficacy of hepatocellular carcinoma prediction scores to prioritise hepatitis B surveillance in the COVID-19 era

OBJECTIVE

An estimated 250 million people worldwide are chronically infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV), the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) globally. The novel Sars-cov2 virus continues to spread at an alarming rate, and with guidance at the onset of the pandemic recommending the deferral of HCC surveillance, the implications on liver cancer care are now emerging and highlight the urgent need for reorganisation of services.

METHODS

We analysed how five HCC risk prediction scores could aid stratification of patients with chronic HBV. We calculated scores using parameters measured from 3 years prior (where available, n = 17) and at the time of HCC diagnosis in all adult patients with chronic HBV diagnosed with HCC (n = 46), and controls (n = 100). We compared the number of patients requiring cancer surveillance according to each score and regional surveillance guidance.

RESULTS

The aMAP score had the highest discriminatory performance in HCC risk prediction at 3 years (area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (auROC) of 0.824), followed by the mREACH B score (auROC of 0.719), and mPAGE B score (auROC of 0.742). However, only the mREACH B score had a negative predictive value (NPV) >99%. Applying the mREACH B score to our HBV cohort identified 11 patients requiring HCC surveillance, compared with 62 under current guidelines.

CONCLUSION

The use of HCC risk prediction scores could streamline the surveillance of patients with chronic HBV at a time of extremely limited resources. Overall, the mREACH B score had both a strong discriminatory performance and a high NPV, thus safely identifying low risk patients not requiring surveillance.

The changing epidemiology of hepatitis B in Greece

Background

The epidemiology of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection has changed in recent years as a result of various factors. Our aim was to assess the epidemiological characteristics and the evolution of the HBV infection in a well-defined area of Greece.

Method

Prospectively collected data from 1910 consecutive patients (60.8% male, age: 50.1 years) with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) followed from 1999-2016 were analyzed.

Results

Of the patients evaluated, 90.6% were of Greek and 8% of Albanian origin. Vertical/intrafamilial transmission during early childhood (56.8%) and traditional practices (17.2%) were the most common infection sources. Several areas with higher rates of CHB were identified. At first evaluation, 68.8% had chronic infection, 21.7% chronic hepatitis, 6.1% cirrhosis and 3.4% hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Comparison between 2 periods (1999-2010 and 2011-2016) revealed older age and longer disease duration at first presentation (P<0.001 for both) to be more common during 2011-2016, while patients of foreign nationality doubled during this period. There was a trend towards more advanced disease stage at first assessment during 2011-2016. Patients after 2011 had lower rates of virological and biochemical breakthrough (P<0.001 for both) during treatment with new antivirals. In addition, fewer patients progressed to cirrhosis (P=0.02) and HCC (P=0.04).

Conclusions

CHB continues to be a major health problem in Central Greece, as highlighted by the preservation of high prevalence areas and a tendency towards an increase of chronic liver disease burden longitudinally. Our data highlight the need for scaling-up prevention and treatment strategies, especially in at-risk populations.

No difference in hepatocellular carcinoma risk between chronic hepatitis B patients treated with entecavir versus tenofovir

OBJECTIVE

Entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) are first-line agents for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Recent studies have challenged the assumption that these agents are equally effective at preventing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to determine whether the risk of HCC and mortality differ in patients with CHB treated with ETV and TDF.

DESIGN

We performed a retrospective cohort study of Veterans Affairs patients with CHB in the USA who initiated treatment with ETV or TDF between the dates of Food and Drug Administration approval of these medications and 1 January 2017. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine the association between antiviral therapy and HCC risk as well as the risk of death or liver transplantation. Propensity score adjustment and competing risks analysis were performed.

RESULTS

We identified 2193 ETV-treated and 1094 TDF-treated patients who were followed for a mean of 5.4 years. We found no difference in the risk of HCC in ETV-treated versus TDF-treated patients (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.00, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.32). Results were similar in propensity score adjusted and competing risks analysis, and in multiple sensitivity analyses. We also found no difference in the risk of death or liver transplantation (aHR 1.16, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.39).

CONCLUSIONS

We found no difference in the risk of HCC between patients with CHB treated with ETV versus TDF. Our results support current guideline recommendations that both agents are appropriate first-line options for the treatment of CHB.

Stratification of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Following HCV Eradication or HBV Control

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence has dramatically decreased in patients infected with HCV and HBV due to the widespread use of highly effective antiviral agents. Nevertheless, a substantial proportion of patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis following HCV clearance of in case of HBV control whatever the stage of fibrosis remains at risk of liver cancer development. Cancer predictors in these virus-free patients include routine parameters estimating coexisting comorbidities, persisting liver inflammation or function impairment, and results of non-invasive tests which can be easily combined into HCC risk scoring systems. The latter enables stratification according to various liver cancer incidences and allocation of patients into low, intermediate or high HCC risk probability groups. All international guidelines endorse lifelong surveillance of these patients using semi-annual ultrasound, with known sensibility issues. Refining HCC prediction in this growing population ultimately will trigger personalized management using more effective surveillance tools such as contrast-enhanced imaging techniques or circulating biomarkers while taking into account cost-effectiveness parameters.

Risk Factors and Biomarkers for Chronic Hepatitis B Associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Globally, hepatitis B virus (HBV) related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the major causes of cancer-related mortality. This is, in part, due to delayed diagnosis and limited therapeutic options with more advanced stages of the disease. Given the prognostic importance of early diagnosis, novel methods for early detection are in need. Unlike most other cancer types, tissue is not required to diagnose HCC and is frequently avoided given the inherent risks of liver biopsy, so less invasive methods of obtaining tumor material are currently under investigation. Material shed from tumors into the periphery are being investigated for their potential to both surveil and diagnose patients for HCC. These materials include circulating tumor cells, DNA, RNA, and exosomes, and are collectively termed a “liquid biopsy”. In this review article, we discuss the evolving literature regarding the different risk factors for HCC and the types of emerging novel biomarkers that show promise in the prevention and early diagnosis of HCC within the context of HBV infection.

Validation of risk prediction scores for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir or tenofovir

Several prediction scores for the early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are available. We validated the predictive accuracy of age, albumin, sex, liver cirrhosis (AASL), RESCUE-B, PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) scores in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). Between 2007 and 2014, 3171 patients were recruited (1645, ETV; 1517, TDF). The predictive accuracy of each prediction score was assessed. The mean age of the study population (1977 men; 1194 women) was 48.8 years. Liver cirrhosis was present in 1040 (32.8%) patients. During follow-up (median, 58.2 months), 280 (8.8%) patients developed HCC; these patients were significantly older; more likely to be male; had significantly higher proportions of liver cirrhosis, hypertension and diabetes; and had significantly higher values for the four risk scores than those who did not develop HCC (all P < .05). Older age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.048), male sex (HR = 2.142), liver cirrhosis (HR = 3.144) and prolonged prothrombin time (HR = 2.589) were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC (all P < .05), whereas a higher platelet count (HR = 0.996) was independently associated with a decreased risk of HCC (P < .05). The predictive accuracy of AASL score was the highest for 3- and 5-year HCC predictions (areas under the curve [AUCs] = 0.818 and 0.816, respectively), followed by RESCUE-B, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores (AUC = 0.780-0.815 and 0.769-0.814, respectively). In conclusion, four HCC prediction scores were assessed in Korean CHB patients treated with ETV or TDF. The AASL score showed the highest predictive accuracy.

aMAP risk score predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the leading cause of death in patients with chronic hepatitis. In this international collaboration, we sought to develop a global universal HCC risk score to predict the HCC development for patients with chronic hepatitis.

METHODS

A total of 17,374 patients, comprising 10,578 treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 2,510 treated Caucasian patients with CHB, 3,566 treated patients with hepatitis C virus (including 2,489 patients with cirrhosis achieving a sustained virological response) and 720 patients with non-viral hepatitis (NVH) from 11 international prospective observational cohorts or randomised controlled trials, were divided into a training cohort (3,688 Asian patients with CHB) and 9 validation cohorts with different aetiologies and ethnicities (n = 13,686).

RESULTS

We developed an HCC risk score, called the aMAP score (ranging from 0 to 100), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. This metric performed excellently in assessing HCC risk not only in patients with hepatitis of different aetiologies, but also in those with different ethnicities (C-index: 0.82-0.87). Cut-off values of 50 and 60 were best for discriminating HCC risk. The 3- or 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 0-0.8%, 1.5-4.8%, and 8.1-19.9% in the low- (n = 7,413, 43.6%), medium- (n = 6,529, 38.4%), and high-risk (n = 3,044, 17.9%) groups, respectively. The cut-off value of 50 was associated with a sensitivity of 85.7-100% and a negative predictive value of 99.3-100%. The cut-off value of 60 resulted in a specificity of 56.6-95.8% and a positive predictive value of 6.6-15.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

This objective, simple, reliable risk score based on 5 common parameters accurately predicted HCC development, regardless of aetiology and ethnicity, which could help to establish a risk score-guided HCC surveillance strategy worldwide.

LAY SUMMARY

In this international collaboration, we developed and externally validated a simple, objective and accurate prognostic tool (called the aMAP score), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. The aMAP score (ranged from 0 to 100) satisfactorily predicted the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among over 17,000 patients with viral and non-viral hepatitis from 11 global prospective studies. Our findings show that the aMAP score had excellent discrimination and calibration in assessing the 5-year HCC risk among all the cohorts irrespective of aetiology and ethnicity.

Hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of antiviral therapy: The emerging role of non-viral risk factors

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), one of the major malignant lethal tumours, is most prevalent in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Both viral and non-viral factors contribute to the development of HCC. It is established that viral factors associated with HBV DNA level, HBV genotype, designated gene mutation, HBV DNA integration, HBx protein, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) and HBV RNA are correlated with hepatocarcinogenesis. Before the introduction of antiviral therapy, viral factors once attracted more attention during the development of HCC. With the widespread use of antiviral therapy, predominantly nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs), most patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) have achieved sustained viral control. The role of non-viral factors, especially modifiable factors, is anticipated to be reinforced in the future. Herein, we reviewed the modifiable non-viral risk factors of HBV-related HCC, in the hope of providing substantial evidence for further development of novel precautionary measures for HCC. In addition, the therapeutic interventions for reducing the risk of HCC, like potential conventional pharmaceutical interventions and lifestyle modification are also discussed in this review. Future studies that would explore the specific mechanism of HBV-related HCC development in patients with satisfactory viral control and related precision treatment are warranted.

Magnitude of and prediction for risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B taking entecavir or tenofovir therapy: A systematic review

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) have been shown to reduce incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This systematic review aims to evaluate the magnitude, change over time, and prediction of residual HCC risks in CHB patients treated with ETV/TDF therapy.

METHODS

Available literature was systematically reviewed through searches of PubMed and EMBASE databases from January 1, 2006 to September 1, 2019, to identify cohort studies that reported HCC incidence in CHB patients during ETV/TDF therapy. Studies were screened by title and abstract and then evaluated for eligibility in terms of full text.

RESULTS

We identified 141 studies for full-text review, and 34 were eligible for analysis. From 19 studies with data separated by cirrhosis status, the 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.5-6.9% in patients without cirrhosis, 4.5-21.6% in compensated cirrhosis, and 36.3-46.5% in decompensated cirrhosis. All four studies that addressed temporal changes in HCC risks consistently found the incidence rate decreased over time in patients with cirrhosis, although the findings were inconsistent in patients without cirrhosis. Six predictive scores were developed and validated to predict incident HCC during ETV/TDF therapy in CHB patients. Common scoring variables included age, sex, cirrhosis (fibrosis grade), and hepatic function. Conflicting results were reported in seven individual studies and two meta-analyses that compared ETV versus TDF.

CONCLUSIONS

The residual risk of HCC remains during ETV/TDF treatment in CHB patients with cirrhosis but declines over time. Risk stratification is attainable by validated predictive scores.

Serum Mac-2-Binding Protein Glycosylation Isomer at Virological Remission Predicts Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Death in Chronic Hepatitis B-Related Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

To investigate serum Mac-2-binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) levels in predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and mortality at virological remission (VR, HBV DNA <20 IU/mL) following antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included patients with CHB-related Child-Pugh A cirrhosis undergoing long-term antiviral therapy. Serum M2BPGi levels were quantified and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify risk predictors for HCC and death.

RESULTS

A total of 126 and 145 patients were included in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The mean age was 56, and the mean M2BPGi level was 1.86 cut-off index (COI) in the derivation cohort. After adjustment for confounders, a higher M2BPGi level at VR significantly predicted HCC (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.58, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-2.10, P=0.002) and death (HR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.02-4.62, P=0.044). The M2BPGi ≥3 COI significantly increased the risk of HCC and death in the derivation and validation cohorts. Serial M2BPGi levels declined significantly (P=0.0001) in non-HCC patients only, and remained significantly lower than those who developed HCC afterwards (P=0.039).

CONCLUSIONS

Serum M2BPGi levels at antiviral therapy-induced VR predict HCC development and death in patients with CHB-related Child-Pugh A cirrhosis.

Real-World Effectiveness From the Asia Pacific Rim Liver Consortium for HBV Risk Score for the Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Treated With Oral Antiviral Therapy

BACKGROUND

Patients on oral antiviral (OAV) therapy remain at hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. Risk prediction tools distinguishing treated patients with residual HCC risk are limited. The aim of this study was to develop an accurate, precise, simple-to-use HCC risk score using routine clinical variables among a treated Asian cohort.

METHODS

Adult Asian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients on OAV were recruited from 25 centers in the United States and the Asia-Pacific region. Excluded persons were coinfected with hepatitis C, D, or human immunodeficiency virus, had HCC before or within 1 year of study entry, or their follow-up was <1 year. Patients were randomized to derivation and validation cohorts on a 2:1 ratio. Statistically significant predictors from multivariate modeling formed the Real-world Effectiveness from the Asia Pacific Rim Liver Consortium for HBV (REAL-B) score.

RESULTS

A total of 8048 patients were randomized to the derivation (n = 5365) or validation group (n = 2683). The REAL-B model included 7 variables (male gender, age, alcohol use, diabetes, baseline cirrhosis, platelet count, and alpha fetoprotein), and scores were categorized as follows: 0-3 low risk, 4-7 moderate risk, and 8-13 high risk. Area under receiver operating characteristics were >0.80 for HCC risk at 3, 5, and 10 years, and these were significantly higher than other risk models (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The REAL-B score provides 3 distinct risk categories for HCC development in Asian CHB patients on OAV guiding HCC surveillance strategy.

Role of Immunomodulators in Functional Cure Strategies for HBV

Purpose of Review

Chronic Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Infection is a major global health burden. Currently, a curative therapy does not exist; thus, there is an urgent need for new therapeutical options. Viral elimination in the natural course of infection results from a robust and multispecific T and B cell response that, however, is dysfunctional in chronically infected patients. Therefore, immunomodulatory therapies that strengthen the immune responses are an obvious approach trying to control HBV infection. In this review, we summarize the rationale and current options of immunological cure of chronic HBV infection.

Recent Findings

Recently, among others, drugs that stimulate the innate immune system or overcome CD8+ T cell exhaustion by checkpoint blockade, and transfer of HBV-specific engineered CD8+ T cells emerged as promising approaches.

Summary

HBV-specific immunity is responsible for viral control, but also for immunopathogenesis. Thus, the development of immunomodulatory therapies is a difficult process on a thin line between viral control and excessive immunopathology. Some promising agents are under investigation. Nevertheless, further research is indispensable in order to optimally orchestrate immunostimulation.

Detectable HBV DNA during nucleos(t)ide analogues stratifies predictive hepatocellular carcinoma risk score

Nucleos(t)ide analogs (NA) suppress hepatitis B virus (HBV) replication and reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, NA cannot suppress carcinogenesis completely in patients with chronic hepatitis B. The aims of this study were to identify risk factors for HCC and develop a refined carcinogenesis prediction model. Patients receiving NA therapy (n = 1,183) were recruited retrospectively from the 16 hospitals. All patients had been receiving NA continuously for more than 1 year until the end of the follow-up. During a median follow-up of 4.9 (1.0–12.9) years, 52 (4.4%) patients developed HCC. A multivariate analysis revealed that male gender, older age, lower platelet counts at the baseline, and detectable HBV DNA during NA therapy were independent predictive factors of HCC development. The PAGE-B score was calculated by using these factors. 240 (20.3%), 661 (55.9%), and 282 (23.8%) patients were classified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively. In the intermediate- and high-risk group, detectable HBV DNA was significantly associated with a higher risk of HCC development compared with continuously undetectable HBV DNA, respectively (HR 3.338; 95% CI 1.045–10.66/HR 3.191; 95% CI 1.543–6.597). PAGE-B–DNA, which is the combined PAGE-B and HBV DNA status, was valuable for a more refined stratification of PAGE-B.

Low-level viremia and cirrhotic complications in patients with chronic hepatitis B according to adherence to entecavir

Background/Aims

Low-level viremia (LLV) after nucleos(t)ide analog treatment was presented as a possible cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). However, detailed information on patients’ adherence in the real world was lacking. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of LLV on HCC development, mortality, and cirrhotic complications among patients according to their adherence to entecavir (ETV) treatment.

Methods

We performed a retrospective observational analysis of data from 894 consecutive adult patients with treatment-naïve CHB undergoing ETV treatment. LLV was defined according to either persistent or intermittent episodes of <2,000 IU/mL detectable hepatitis B virus DNA during the follow-up period. Good adherence to medication was defined as a cumulative adherence ≥90% per study period.

Results

Without considering adherence in the entire cohort (n=894), multivariate analysis of the HCC incidence showed that LLV was an independent prognostic factor in addition to other traditional risk factors in the entire cohort (P=0.031). Good adherence group comprised 617 patients (69.0%). No significant difference was found between maintained virologic response and LLV groups in terms of the incidence of liver-related death or transplantation, HCC, and hepatic decompensation in good adherence group, according to multivariate analyses.

Conclusions

In patients with treatment-naïve CHB and good adherence to ETV treatment in the real world, LLV during treatment is not a predictive factor for HCC and cirrhotic complications. It may be unnecessary to adjust their antiviral agent for patients with good adherence who experience LLV during ETV treatment.

On-Treatment Changes in FIB-4 and 1-Year FIB-4 Values Help Identify Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Entecavir Therapy Who Have the Lowest Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Noninvasive fibrosis indices can help stratify the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy. We investigated the predictive performance of on-treatment changes in FIB-4 (△FIB-4) and 1-year FIB-4 values (FIB-4 12M) for HCC risk in patients with CHB receiving entecavir therapy. We included 1325 NA-naïve patients with CHB treated with entecavir, retrospectively, from January 2007 to August 2012. A combination of △FIB-4 and FIB-4 12M was used to stratify the cumulative risk of HCC into three subgroups each in the noncirrhotic and cirrhotic subgroups with p < 0.0001 by using the log-rank test (noncirrhotic: the highest risk (n = 88): FIB-4 12M ≥ 1.58/△FIB-4 ≥ 0 (hazard ratio (HR): 40.35; 95% confidence interval (CI): 5.107–318.7; p <0.0001) and cirrhotic: the highest risk (n = 89): FIB-4 12M ≥2.88/△FIB-4 ≥0 (HR: 9.576; 95% CI: 5.033–18.22; p < 0.0001)). Patients with noncirrhotic CHB treated with entecavir who had a FIB-4 12M < 1.58 or FIB-4 12M ≥ 1.58/△FIB-4 < 0 exhibited the lowest 5-year HCC risk (0.6%). A combination of on-treatment changes in FIB-4 and 1-year FIB-4 values may help identify patients with CHB receiving entecavir therapy with the lowest risk of HCC.

Incidence and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma beyond year 5 of entecavir therapy in chronic hepatitis B patients

BACKGROUND

PURPOSE: The study compared the incidence and predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within and beyond year 5 of entecavir (ETV) therapy.

METHODS

The study enrolled 1397 CHB patients who were naïve to nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) treatment and had received ETV monotherapy for more than 12 months.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidences of HCC at 3, 5, and 10 years of ETV treatment were 4%, 9.1%, and 15.8%, respectively. In the entire cohort, the annual incidence rates of HCC were 2.28% within the first 5 years and 1.34% within 5-10 years of therapy. The incidences of HCC did not differ significantly within and beyond 5 years of ETV therapy (p = 0.53), including patients with cirrhosis (p = 0.85) and without cirrhosis (p = 0.47). At year 5 of treatment, the multivariate analysis showed that the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels were independent risk factors for HCC development beyond year 5. The 10-year cumulative incidences of HCC beyond year 5 in the high-risk group (FIB-4 > 2.20 and AFP > 3.21 ng/mL) and low-risk group (FIB-4 ≤ 2.20 and AFP ≤ 3.21 ng/mL) were 48.7% and 0%, respectively. APA-B score at 12 months and year 5 had a higher C-index for the prediction of HCC beyond year 5 than the PAGE-B at baseline and year 5 (p = 0.003 and p = 0.039, respectively) CONCLUSIONS: The HCC incidence tended to decrease but did not change significantly within and beyond 5 years of ETV therapy. The FIB-4 index and AFP levels at year 5 were predictive of HCC development beyond year 5 of ETV therapy.

Pan-Asian adapted ESMO Clinical Practice Guidelines for the management of patients with intermediate and advanced/relapsed hepatocellular carcinoma: a TOS-ESMO initiative endorsed by CSCO, ISMPO, JSMO, KSMO, MOS and SSO

The most recent version of the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Clinical Practice Guidelines for the diagnosis, treatment and follow-up of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was published in 2018, and covered the diagnosis, management, treatment and follow-up of early, intermediate and advanced disease. At the ESMO Asia Meeting in November 2018 it was decided by both the ESMO and the Taiwan Oncology Society (TOS) to convene a special guidelines meeting immediately after the Taiwan Joint Cancer Conference (TJCC) in May 2019 in Taipei. The aim was to adapt the ESMO 2018 guidelines to take into account both the ethnic and the geographic differences in practice associated with the treatment of HCC in Asian patients. These guidelines represent the consensus opinions reached by experts in the treatment of patients with intermediate and advanced/relapsed HCC representing the oncology societies of Taiwan (TOS), China (CSCO), India (ISMPO) Japan (JSMO), Korea (KSMO), Malaysia (MOS) and Singapore (SSO). The voting was based on scientific evidence, and was independent of the current treatment practices, the drug availability and reimbursement situations in the individual participating Asian countries.