Impact of non-invasive biomarkers on hepatology practice: Past, present and future

Noninvasive Assessment of Portal Hypertension

The progressive use of noninvasive tests (NITs) has changed the way hepatologists diagnose and manage patients with chronic liver disease, mainly because of their easiness to use and the ability to be repeated during follow-up. Liver stiffness measurement is the NIT with more scientific evidence. NITs have demonstrated to be useful to detect not only liver fibrosis but also the presence of clinically significant portal hypertension. Moreover, current evidence supports they can also be useful to evaluate the prognosis of patients with chronic liver disease.

Opportunities and barriers in omics-based biomarker discovery for steatotic liver diseases

The rising prevalence of liver diseases related to obesity and excessive use of alcohol is fuelling an increasing demand for accurate biomarkers aimed at community screening, diagnosis of steatohepatitis and significant fibrosis, monitoring, prognostication and prediction of treatment efficacy. Breakthroughs in omics methodologies and the power of bioinformatics have created an excellent opportunity to apply technological advances to clinical needs, for instance in the development of precision biomarkers for personalised medicine. Via omics technologies, biological processes from the genes to circulating protein, as well as the microbiome - including bacteria, viruses and fungi, can be investigated on an axis. However, there are important barriers to omics-based biomarker discovery and validation, including the use of semi-quantitative measurements from untargeted platforms, which may exhibit high analytical, inter- and intra-individual variance. Standardising methods and the need to validate them across diverse populations presents a challenge, partly due to disease complexity and the dynamic nature of biomarker expression at different disease stages. Lack of validity causes lost opportunities when studies fail to provide the knowledge needed for regulatory approvals, all of which contributes to a delayed translation of these discoveries into clinical practice. While no omics-based biomarkers have matured to clinical implementation, the extent of data generated has enabled the hypothesis-free discovery of a plethora of candidate biomarkers that warrant further validation. To explore the many opportunities of omics technologies, hepatologists need detailed knowledge of commonalities and differences between the various omics layers, and both the barriers to and advantages of these approaches.

Liver health in hemophilia in the era of gene therapy

Gene therapy for hemophilia is a groundbreaking treatment approach with promising results and potential to reduce the burden of the disease. However, uncertainties remain, particularly regarding the liver side effects of AAV gene therapy, which are more common in hemophilia A. Unlike some other diseases, such as spinal muscular atrophy, where the target cell for gene therapy is different from the one affected by side effects, hemophilia gene therapy operates within the same cellular domain-the hepatocyte. This overlap is challenging and requires a targeted strategy to mitigate the risks associated with liver injury, which often requires temporary immunosuppressive therapy. A comprehensive approach is essential to increase the efficacy of gene therapy and reduce the likelihood of hepatocyte damage. Key components of this strategy include a thorough pre-gene therapy assessment of liver health, careful post-gene therapy liver monitoring, and prompt therapeutic intervention for loss of transgene expression and liver injury. Collaboration between hematologists and hepatologists is essential to ensure a well-coordinated management plan for patients undergoing hemophilia gene therapy. This review addresses the critical aspect of hepatic comorbidities in patients with hemophilia, emphasizing the need to identify and address these issues prior to initiating gene therapy. It examines the known mechanisms of liver damage and emphasizes the importance of liver monitoring after gene therapy. In addition, the review draws insights from experiences with other AAV-based gene therapies, providing valuable lessons that can guide hemophilia centers in effectively managing liver damage associated with hemophilia gene therapy.

Prospective head-to-head comparison of non-invasive scores for diagnosis of fibrotic MASH in patients with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Non-invasive scores have been proposed to identify patients with fibrotic, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), who are at the highest risk of progression to complications of cirrhosis and may benefit from pharmacologic treatments. However, data in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) are lacking. The aim of this multicenter prospective study was to perform a head-to-head comparison of FAST (FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase [AST]), MAST (MRI-AST), MEFIB (magnetic resonance elastography [MRE] plus FIB-4), and FNI (fibrotic NASH index) for detecting fibrotic MASH in patients with T2DM.

METHODS

A total of 330 outpatients with T2DM and biopsy-proven metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) from the QUID-NASH study (NCT03634098), who underwent FibroScan, MRI-proton density fat fraction and MRE at the time of liver biopsy were studied. The main outcome was fibrotic MASH, defined as NAS ≥4 (with at least one point for each parameter) and fibrosis stage ≥2 (centrally reviewed).

RESULTS

All data for score comparisons were available for 245 patients (median age 59 years, 65% male, median BMI 31 kg/m2; fibrotic MASH in 39%). FAST and MAST had similar accuracy (AUROCs 0.81 vs. 0.79, p = 0.41) but outperformed FNI (0.74; p = 0.01) and MEFIB (0.68; p <0.0001). When using original cut-offs, MAST outperformed FAST, MEFIB and FNI when comparing the percentage of correctly classified patients, in whom liver biopsy would be avoided (69% vs. 48%, 46%, 39%, respectively; p <0.001). When using cut-offs specific to our population, FAST outperformed FNI and MAST (56% vs. 40%, and 38%, respectively; p <0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our findings show that FAST, MAST, MEFIB and FNI are accurate non-invasive tools to identify patients with T2DM and fibrotic MASH in secondary/tertiary diabetes clinics. Cut-offs adapted to the T2DM population should be considered.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM), identifying those with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis and significant fibrosis, who are the most at risk of developing clinical liver-related outcomes and who may benefit from pharmacologic treatments, is an unmet need. In this prospective multicenter study, we compared four non-invasive scores, three based on imaging (MRI or ultrasound technologies) and one on laboratory blood tests, for this purpose, using original and study-specific cut-offs. Our findings show that FAST, MAST, MEFIB and FNI are accurate non-invasive tools to identify patients with T2DM and fibrotic MASH in secondary/tertiary diabetes clinics. Cut-offs adapted to the T2DM population should be considered.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03634098.

Diagnostic accuracy of non-invasive tests to screen for at-risk MASH-An individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There is a need to reduce the screen failure rate (SFR) in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) clinical trials (MASH+F2-3; MASH+F4) and identify people with high-risk MASH (MASH+F2-4) in clinical practice. We aimed to evaluate non-invasive tests (NITs) screening approaches for these target conditions.

METHODS

This was an individual participant data meta-analysis for the performance of NITs against liver biopsy for MASH+F2-4, MASH+F2-3 and MASH+F4. Index tests were the FibroScan-AST (FAST) score, liver stiffness measured using vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), the fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) and the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS). Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and thresholds including those that achieved 34% SFR were reported.

RESULTS

We included 2281 unique cases. The prevalence of MASH+F2-4, MASH+F2-3 and MASH+F4 was 31%, 24% and 7%, respectively. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F2-4 were .78, .75, .68 and .57 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F2-3 were .73, .67, .60, .58 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F4 were .79, .84, .81, .76 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. The sequential combination of FIB-4 and LSM-VCTE for the detection of MASH+F2-3 with threshold of .7 and 3.48, and 5.9 and 20 kPa achieved SFR of 67% and sensitivity of 60%, detecting 15 true positive cases from a theoretical group of 100 participants at the prevalence of 24%.

CONCLUSIONS

Sequential combinations of NITs do not compromise diagnostic performance and may reduce resource utilisation through the need of fewer LSM-VCTE examinations.

A Precision Medicine Guided Approach to the Utilization of Biomarkers in MASLD

The new nomenclature of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) emphasizes a positive diagnosis based on cardiometabolic risk factors. This definition is not only less stigmatizing but also allows for subclassification and stratification, thereby addressing the heterogeneity of what was historically referred to as nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. The heterogeneity within this spectrum is influenced by several factors which include but are not limited to demographic/dietary factors, the amount of alcohol use and drinking patterns, metabolic status, gut microbiome, genetic predisposition together with epigenetic factors. The net effect of this dynamic and intricate system-level interaction is reflected in the phenotypic presentation of MASLD. Therefore, the application of precision medicine in this scenario aims at complex phenotyping with consequent individual risk prediction, development of individualized preventive strategies, and improvements in the clinical trial designs. In this review, we aim to highlight the importance of precision medicine approaches in MASLD, including the use of novel biomarkers of disease, and its subsequent utilization in future study designs.

Heterogeneous Pathological Changes in Liver Lobes During Liver Disease: A Perspective Review

Liver diseases have a global prevalence of 25%, accounting for 4% of all deaths worldwide, and are associated with a 36% increased risk of fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events. Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease constitutes the liver expression of metabolic syndrome and represents the primary type of liver disease. Microscopical analysis of biopsies, which allows the evaluation of a small portion of tissue with inferences made to the entire organ, is considered the gold standard for determining the presence of liver diseases. However, potential sampling errors in liver biopsies are conceivable because the obtained tissue represents only a tiny fraction of the entire liver mass and may not accurately reflect the true pathological state. Studies have demonstrated the existence of sampling errors in liver biopsies, particularly concerning the severity of inflammation, degree of fibrosis, and the presence of cirrhosis. Also, clinical studies have shown that histopathological abnormalities are better detected in humans when liver samples are collected from both the right and the left lobes. However, a gap exists in clinical investigation to clarify the role of differences between these lobes in improving the diagnostic and prognostic for liver diseases. Building upon the heterogeneous nature of pathological alterations observed in liver lobes, this perspective review provided recommendations to enhance the precision of diagnosis and prognostic accuracy of liver diseases.

Liver stiffness progression in biopsy-proven metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic disease among people with diabetes versus people without diabetes: A prospective multicenter study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There are limited data on the progression of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) versus those without T2DM in biopsy-proven metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease. We examined LSM progression in participants with T2DM versus those without T2DM in a large, prospective, multicenter cohort study.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This study included 1231 adult participants (62% female) with biopsy-proven metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease who had VCTEs at least 1 year apart. LSM progression and regression were defined by a ≥20% increase and an upward or downward change, respectively, in the LSM category in the Baveno VII categories for compensated advanced chronic liver disease, compared between participants with T2DM (n = 680) versus no T2DM (n = 551) at baseline. The mean (±SD) age and body mass index were 51.8 (±12.0) years and 34.0 (±6.5) kg/m 2 , respectively. The median (IQR) time between the first and last VCTE measurements was 4.1 (2.5-6.5) years. Participants with T2DM had higher LSM progression at 4 years (12% vs. 10%), 6 years (23% vs. 16%), and 8 years (50% vs. 39%), p = 0.04. Using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for multiple confounders, the presence of T2DM remained an independent predictor of LSM progression (adjusted HR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.01-1.81, p = 0.04). T2DM was not associated with LSM regression ( p = 0.71). Mean HbA1c was significantly associated with LSM progression ( p = 0.003) and regression ( p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Using serial VCTE data from a multicenter study of participants with biopsy-proven metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, we demonstrate that T2DM and HbA1c are associated with LSM progression.

Low-to-moderate alcohol consumption is associated with increased fibrosis in individuals with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Both metabolic dysfunction and alcohol consumption cause steatotic liver disease (SLD). New nomenclature and distinction of metabolic dysfunction-associated SLD (MASLD) and MetALD categories is based on arbitrary thresholds of alcohol intake. We assessed the impact of different levels of alcohol consumption on SLD severity and its interaction with metabolic comorbidities.

METHODS

Population-based study with transient elastography (FibroScan®) data from participants in Spain (derivation) and U.S. (validation) cohorts. Controlled attenuation parameter (CAP≥275 dB/m) identified SLD. At least one cardiometabolic risk factor was required to define MASLD. Among MASLD patients, low alcohol consumption was defined as an average of 5-9 drinks/week, moderate consumption as 10-13 drinks/week for females and 10-20 drinks/week for males, and increased alcohol intake (MetALD) as 14-35 drinks/week for females and 21-42 drinks/week for males. Significant fibrosis was defined as LSM≥8 kPa and at-risk MASH as FAST score≥0.35.

RESULTS

The derivation cohort included 2,227 subjects with MASLD (9% reported low, 14% moderate alcohol consumption), and 76 cases with MetALD. Overall prevalence of significant fibrosis and at-risk MASH were 7.6% and 14.8%, respectively. In the multivariable analysis, alcohol consumption was independently associated with significant fibrosis and at-risk MASH. A dose-dependent increase in the prevalence of significant fibrosis and at-risk MASH was observed between the number of drinks/week and the number of cardiometabolic factors. The validation cohort included 1,732 participants with MASLD, of whom 17% had significant fibrosis and 13% at-risk MASH. This cohort validated the association between moderate intake and MASLD at risk of progression (OR=1.69 [95%CI 1.06-2.71]).

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate alcohol intake is commonly seen in MASLD and increases the risk of advanced disease, in a similar magnitude to MetALD spectrum.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Metabolic risk factors such as overweight, diabetes or dyslipidemia, and alcohol consumption can cause liver disease. These factors frequently co-exist, but their joint effects on liver fibrosis remain uncertain. This study analyzes subjects form the general population with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) enrolled in Spain and U.S. We show that moderate alcohol consumption has a supra-additive effect with metabolic risk factors, exponentially increasing the risk of liver fibrosis. These results suggest that patients with unhealthy metabolic status and MASLD have no safe limits of daily alcohol intake.

An Electronic Health Record Model for Predicting Risk of Hepatic Fibrosis in Primary Care Patients

BACKGROUND

One challenge for primary care providers caring for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is to identify those at the highest risk for clinically significant liver disease.

AIM

To derive a risk stratification tool using variables from structured electronic health record (EHR) data for use in populations which are disproportionately affected with obesity and diabetes.

METHODS

We used data from 344 participants who underwent Fibroscan examination to measure liver fat and liver stiffness measurement [LSM]. Using two approaches, multivariable logistic regression and random forest classification, we assessed risk factors for any hepatic fibrosis (LSM > 7 kPa) and significant hepatic fibrosis (> 8 kPa). Possible predictors included data from the EHR for age, gender, diabetes, hypertension, FIB-4, body mass index (BMI), LDL, HDL, and triglycerides.

RESULTS

Of 344 patients (56.4% women), 34 had any hepatic fibrosis, and 15 significant hepatic fibrosis. Three variables (BMI, FIB-4, diabetes) were identified from both approaches. When we used variable cut-offs defined by Youden's index, the final model predicting any hepatic fibrosis had an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.67-0.84), NPV of 91.5% and PPV of 40.0%. The final model with variable categories based on standard clinical thresholds (i.e., BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2; FIB-4 ≥ 1.45) had lower discriminatory ability (AUC 0.65), but higher PPV (50.0%) and similar NPV (91.3%). We observed similar findings for predicting significant hepatic fibrosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that standard thresholds for clinical risk factors/biomarkers may need to be modified for greater discriminatory ability among populations with high prevalence of obesity and diabetes.

Developing and validating clinical prediction models in hepatology - An overview for clinicians

Prediction models are everywhere in clinical medicine. We use them to assign a diagnosis or a prognosis, and there have been continuous efforts to develop better prediction models. It is important to understand the fundamentals of prediction modelling, thus, we herein describe nine steps to develop and validate a clinical prediction model with the intention of implementing it in clinical practice: Determine if there is a need for a new prediction model; define the purpose and intended use of the model; assess the quality and quantity of the data you wish to develop the model on; develop the model using sound statistical methods; generate risk predictions on the probability scale (0-100%); evaluate the performance of the model in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility; validate the model using bootstrapping to correct for the apparent optimism in performance; validate the model on external datasets to assess the generalisability and transportability of the model; and finally publish the model so that it can be implemented or validated by others.

Advances in Noninvasive Molecular Imaging Probes for Liver Fibrosis Diagnosis

Liver fibrosis is a wound-healing response to chronic liver injury, which may lead to cirrhosis and cancer. Early-stage fibrosis is reversible, and it is difficult to precisely diagnose with conventional imaging modalities such as magnetic resonance imaging, positron emission tomography, single-photon emission computed tomography, and ultrasound imaging. In contrast, probe-assisted molecular imaging offers a promising noninvasive approach to visualize early fibrosis changes in vivo, thus facilitating early diagnosis and staging liver fibrosis, and even monitoring of the treatment response. Here, the most recent progress in molecular imaging technologies for liver fibrosis is updated. We start by illustrating pathogenesis for liver fibrosis, which includes capillarization of liver sinusoidal endothelial cells, cellular and molecular processes involved in inflammation and fibrogenesis, as well as processes of collagen synthesis, oxidation, and cross-linking. Furthermore, the biological targets used in molecular imaging of liver fibrosis are summarized, which are composed of receptors on hepatic stellate cells, macrophages, and even liver collagen. Notably, the focus is on insights into the advances in imaging modalities developed for liver fibrosis diagnosis and the update in the corresponding contrast agents. In addition, challenges and opportunities for future research and clinical translation of the molecular imaging modalities and the contrast agents are pointed out. We hope that this review would serve as a guide for scientists and students who are interested in liver fibrosis imaging and treatment, and as well expedite the translation of molecular imaging technologies from bench to bedside.

Screening for liver fibrosis: lessons from colorectal and lung cancer screening

Many countries have incorporated population screening programmes for cancer, such as colorectal and lung cancer, into their health-care systems. Cirrhosis is more prevalent than colorectal cancer and has a comparable age-standardized mortality rate to lung cancer. Despite this fact, there are no screening programmes in place for early detection of liver fibrosis, the precursor of cirrhosis. In this Perspective, we use insights from colorectal and lung cancer screening to explore the benefits, challenges, implementation strategies and pathways for future liver fibrosis screening initiatives. Several non-invasive methods and referral pathways for early identification of liver fibrosis exist, but in addition to accurate detection, screening programmes must also be cost-effective and demonstrate benefit through a reduction in liver-related mortality. Randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm this. Future randomized screening trials should evaluate not only the screening tests, but also interventions used to halt disease progression in individuals identified through screening.

Investigating the correlation between polyunsaturated fatty acids intake and non-invasive biomarkers of liver fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) have potentially beneficial effects on the liver tissue. Noninvasive biomarkers, including imaging techniques and blood-based biomarkers, are important tools for assessing liver fibrosis. This study aims to investigate the relationship between dietary intake of PUFAs and noninvasive biomarkers for liver fibrosis in the general population.

METHODS

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2018 (NHANES 2017-2018) datasets were used. Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), FIB-8, and Fatty Liver Index (FLI) were calculated for each subject. The fibrosis groups were compared based on their intake of PUFA. The correlation between each score and PUFA intake was calculated. Correlation analysis was performed.

RESULTS

A total of 5087 subjects (50.36% female) with a mean age of 49.37 ± 12.14 were evaluated. The mean of median liver stiffness measurement (LSM) was 5.92 ± 5.20 kPa (kPa). The mean PUFA intake was reported as 20.2 ± 13.9 gm. Fibrosis (F) grouping revealed that 190 subjects had F3, and 154 F4. HDL had a significant correlation with Docosapentaenoic acid (DPA) intake (r = -0.038, p = 0.007). Moreover, AST and ALT had a significant correlation with Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) intake (r = 0.033 and 0.059, p = 0.019 and < 0.001, respectively). FIB-4 and FIB-8 had no correlation with PUFA intake. FLI had a significant correlation with DPA acid (r = 0.062, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

A significant correlation between FLI, and PUFA intake suggests that increasing PUFA consumption could have a positive impact on liver health.

EASL-EASD-EASO Clinical Practice Guidelines on the Management of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD)

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously termed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is defined as steatotic liver disease (SLD) in the presence of one or more cardiometabolic risk factor(s) and the absence of harmful alcohol intake. The spectrum of MASLD includes steatosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH, previously NASH), fibrosis, cirrhosis and MASH-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This joint EASL-EASD-EASO guideline provides an update on definitions, prevention, screening, diagnosis and treatment for MASLD. Case-finding strategies for MASLD with liver fibrosis, using non-invasive tests, should be applied in individuals with cardiometabolic risk factors, abnormal liver enzymes, and/or radiological signs of hepatic steatosis, particularly in the presence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) or obesity with additional metabolic risk factor(s). A stepwise approach using blood-based scores (such as FIB-4) and, sequentially, imaging techniques (such as transient elastography) is suitable to rule-out/in advanced fibrosis, which is predictive of liver-related outcomes. In adults with MASLD, lifestyle modification - including weight loss, dietary changes, physical exercise and discouraging alcohol consumption - as well as optimal management of comorbidities - including use of incretin-based therapies (e.g. semaglutide, tirzepatide) for T2D or obesity, if indicated - is advised. Bariatric surgery is also an option in individuals with MASLD and obesity. If locally approved and dependent on the label, adults with non-cirrhotic MASH and significant liver fibrosis (stage ≥2) should be considered for a MASH-targeted treatment with resmetirom, which demonstrated histological effectiveness on steatohepatitis and fibrosis with an acceptable safety and tolerability profile. No MASH-targeted pharmacotherapy can currently be recommended for the cirrhotic stage. Management of MASH-related cirrhosis includes adaptations of metabolic drugs, nutritional counselling, surveillance for portal hypertension and HCC, as well as liver transplantation in decompensated cirrhosis.

EASL-EASD-EASO Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously termed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is defined as steatotic liver disease (SLD) in the presence of one or more cardiometabolic risk factor(s) and the absence of harmful alcohol intake. The spectrum of MASLD includes steatosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH, previously NASH), fibrosis, cirrhosis and MASH-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This joint EASL-EASD-EASO guideline provides an update on definitions, prevention, screening, diagnosis and treatment for MASLD. Case-finding strategies for MASLD with liver fibrosis, using non-invasive tests, should be applied in individuals with cardiometabolic risk factors, abnormal liver enzymes, and/or radiological signs of hepatic steatosis, particularly in the presence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) or obesity with additional metabolic risk factor(s). A stepwise approach using blood-based scores (such as FIB-4) and, sequentially, imaging techniques (such as transient elastography) is suitable to rule-out/in advanced fibrosis, which is predictive of liver-related outcomes. In adults with MASLD, lifestyle modification - including weight loss, dietary changes, physical exercise and discouraging alcohol consumption - as well as optimal management of comorbidities - including use of incretin-based therapies (e.g. semaglutide, tirzepatide) for T2D or obesity, if indicated - is advised. Bariatric surgery is also an option in individuals with MASLD and obesity. If locally approved and dependent on the label, adults with non-cirrhotic MASH and significant liver fibrosis (stage ≥2) should be considered for a MASH-targeted treatment with resmetirom, which demonstrated histological effectiveness on steatohepatitis and fibrosis with an acceptable safety and tolerability profile. No MASH-targeted pharmacotherapy can currently be recommended for the cirrhotic stage. Management of MASH-related cirrhosis includes adaptations of metabolic drugs, nutritional counselling, surveillance for portal hypertension and HCC, as well as liver transplantation in decompensated cirrhosis.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: Evolution of the final terminology

The medical term nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) was coined in 1986 for a condition that has since become the most prevalent liver disorder worldwide. In the last 3 years, the global professional community launched 2 consecutive efforts to purge NAFLD from the medical dictionary and recommended new terms based on disease pathophysiology rather than distinction from similar conditions featuring liver steatosis. A consensus by renowned clinical scholars primarily residing in the Asian-Pacific region introduced metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) as a new name to replace NAFLD in 2020. In 2023, a nomenclature and classification resulting in the term metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) was developed by a large expert panel under the auspices of leading liver societies from Europe and Americas. These marked and rapid shifts in nomenclature have garnered the attention of many researchers and clinicians across the globe due to the multilevel impact of a frequent and potentially progressive chronic liver disease in both adult and pediatric populations. The proposed terminologies differ in several ways but they have more in common than differences. They both capture key features of liver disease associated with cardiometabolic risk factors and with significant impact on all-cause and liver-related mortality. The framework of MASLD has incorporated many innovative aspects of MAFLD and while several conceptual disparities remain a work in progress, global efforts should focus on new insights into disease pathogenesis, outcome trajectories, prevention, and treatment. Here, some of these challenges are discussed to facilitate this process.

Probabilistic Scatter Plots for visualizing carbohydrate and lipid metabolism states in Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is characterized by dysregulated carbohydrate and lipid metabolism, which are its primary features. However, traditional biochemical markers pose challenges for accurate quantification and visualization of metabolic states. This study introduces a novel states-based approach for accurate NAFLD assessment.

METHODS

Joint probabilistic distributions of triglycerides and glycemia were constructed using dual-indicator Probabilistic Scatter Plots based on clinical data (healthy controls: n = 1978; NAFLD patients: n = 471). Patterns of metabolic dysregulation were revealed through comparison against healthy profiles. Self-organizing feature mapping (SOFM) clustered the distributions into four dominant states.

RESULTS

Healthy scatter plots demonstrated a distinct progression of sub-states ranging from very healthy to sub-healthy. In contrast, NAFLD plots exhibited shifted probability centers and outward divergence. SOFM clustering classified the states into: mild; moderate and severe lipid metabolism disorders; and carbohydrate metabolism disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

Probabilistic Scatter Plots, when combined with SOFM clustering, facilitate a states-based quantification of NAFLD metabolic dysregulation. This method integrates multi-dimensional biochemical indicators and their distributions into a cohesive framework, enabling precise and intuitive visualization for personalized diagnosis and monitoring of prognostic developments.

Development of Fibro-PeN, a clinical prediction model for moderate-to-severe fibrosis in children with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Liver fibrosis is common in children with NAFLD and is an important determinant of outcomes. High-performing noninvasive models to assess fibrosis in children are needed. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the performance of existing pediatric and adult fibrosis prediction models and to develop a clinical prediction rule for identifying moderate-to-severe fibrosis in children with NAFLD.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We enrolled children with biopsy-proven NAFLD in the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network within 90 days of liver biopsy. We staged liver fibrosis in consensus using the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network scoring system. We evaluated existing pediatric and adult models for fibrosis and developed a new pediatric model using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator with linear and spline terms for discriminating moderate-to-severe fibrosis from none or mild fibrosis. The model was internally validated with 10-fold cross-validation. We evaluated 1055 children with NAFLD, of whom 26% had moderate-to-severe fibrosis. Existing models performed poorly in classifying fibrosis in children, with area under the receiver operator curves (AUC) ranging from 0.57 to 0.64. In contrast, our new model, fibrosis in pediatric NAFLD was derived from fourteen common clinical variables and had an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.77-0.81) with 72% sensitivity and 76% specificity for identifying moderate-to-severe fibrosis.

CONCLUSION

Existing fibrosis prediction models have limited clinical utility in children with NAFLD. Fibrosis in pediatric NAFLD offers improved performance characteristics for risk stratification by identifying moderate-to-severe fibrosis in children with NAFLD.

Fatty Liver Index (FLI) is the best score to predict MASLD with 50% lower cut-off value in women than in men

BACKGROUND

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is defined by the presence of hepatic steatosis, detected on ultrasonography (US) imaging or histology, and at least one of criteria for Metabolic Syndrome diagnosis. Simple non-invasive tests (NITs) have been proposed as an acceptable alternative when US and biopsy are not available or feasible but have not been validated for MASLD. In this observational study, we investigated the reliability of NITs for MASLD detection and whether sex-differences in screening methods should be considered.

METHODS

We included 1069 individuals (48% males and 52% females) who underwent their first clinical examination for Metabolic Syndrome in the period between January 2015 and December 2022. Liver steatosis was detected through US and anthropometric and clinical parameters were recorded.

RESULTS

Liver steatosis was detected in 648 patients and MASLD was diagnosed in 630 subjects (355 males; 275 females). Women with MASLD showed better metabolic profile and lower prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome criteria than men. Among NITs, Fatty Liver Index (FLI) showed the best ability for detection of MASLD, with a cut-off value of 44 (AUC = 0.82). When considering the two sexes for MASLD detection via FLI, despite no substantial differences regarding FLI correlations with metabolic biomarkers except for age, women showed marked lower FLI cut-off value (32; AUC = 0.80) than men (60; AUC = 0.80).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that FLI is the best non-invasive predictor of both liver steatosis and MASLD. The finding that in women FLI cut-off value for MASLD detection is 50% lower than in men suggests the need of a sex-specific personalized program of screening and prevention of dysmetabolism-related liver diseases, despite outwardly healthy biomarkers profile.

Ammonia detection: A pathway towards potential point-of-care diagnostics

Invasive methods such as blood collection and biopsy are commonly used for testing liver and kidney function, which are painful, time-consuming, require trained personnel, and may not be easily accessible to people for their routine checkup. Early diagnosis of liver and kidney diseases can prevent severe symptoms and ensure better management of these patients. Emerging approaches such as breath and sweat analysis have shown potential as non-invasive methods for disease diagnosis. Among the many markers, ammonia is often used as a biomarker for the monitoring of liver and kidney functions. In this review we provide an insight into the production and expulsion of ammonia gas in the human body, the different diseases that could potentially use ammonia as biomarker and analytical devices such as chemiresistive gas sensors for non-invasive monitoring of this gas. The review also provides an understanding into the different materials, doping agents and substrates used to develop such multifunctional sensors. Finally, the current challenges and the possible future trends have been discussed.

Evaluation of spleen stiffness by 2D shear wave elastography for ruling out high risk varices in patients with chronic advanced liver disease. A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review the accuracy of spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) by 2D- Shear Wave Elastography (2D-SWE) in predicting high risk for bleeding varices (HRV) in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Medline, Cochrane, and Google Scholar databases were searched up to 31/05/2023 for all human studies using 2D-SWE to estimate SSM and endoscopy to detect HRV. Meta-analysis was performed using a generalized linear mixed model. Publication bias was evaluated using the funnel plot asymmetry test. The Area Under the Summarized Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUSROC) was estimated using the "mada" package.

RESULTS

A total of 13 studies and 1970 patients were included. Of them, 27.8 % had HRV. The pooled sensitivity and polled specificity of SSM in detecting HRV were 90 % (95 %CI:87-92 %) and 68 % (95 %CI:58-77 %), respectively, with an AUSROC at 0.86 (95 %CI:0.82-0.90). The median cutoff value of SSM in detecting HRV was 34.2 kPa. In studies including exclusively HBV cirrhotic patients, SSM's polled sensitivity and specificity in predicting HRV was 88 % (95 %CI:82-92 %) and 73 % (95 %CI:68-78 %), respectively. The AUSROC was 0.84 (95 %CI:0.81-0.87). The number of repeated measurements per patient (<5 or ≥ 5) did not affect the method's capability. Using Aixplorer to evaluate SSM had a higher sensitivity in ruling out HRV than other 2D-SWE devices.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis supports that SSM by 2D-SWE has a good diagnostic performance for ruling out HRV in cirrhosis.

Noninvasive tests for liver fibrosis in 2024: are there different scales for different diseases?

Liver fibrosis is the common pathway from various chronic liver diseases and its progression leads to cirrhosis which carries a significant risk for the development of portal hypertension-related complications and hepatocellular carcinoma. It is crucial to identify and halt the worsening of liver fibrosis given its important prognostic implication. Liver biopsy is the gold standard for assessing the degree of liver fibrosis but is limited due to its invasiveness and impracticality for serial monitoring. Many noninvasive tests have been developed over the years trying to assess liver fibrosis in a practical and accurate way. The tests are mainly laboratory- or imaging-based, or in combination. Laboratory-based tests can be derived from simply routine blood tests to patented laboratory parameters. Imaging modalities include ultrasound and magnetic resonance elastography, in which vibration-controlled transient elastography is the most widely validated and adopted whereas magnetic resonance elastography has been proven the most accurate liver fibrosis assessment tool. Nonetheless, noninvasive tests do not always apply to all liver diseases, nor does a common cut-off value of a test mean the same degree of liver fibrosis in different scenarios. In this review, we discuss the diagnostic and prognostic performance, as well as the confounders and limitations, of different noninvasive tests on liver fibrosis assessment in various liver diseases.

Performance of non-invasive tests for liver fibrosis resolution after bariatric surgery

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The value of non-invasive tests for monitoring the resolution of significant liver fibrosis after treatment is poorly investigated. We compared the performances of six non-invasive tests to predict the resolution of significant fibrosis after bariatric surgery.

METHODS

Participants were individuals with obesity submitted to needle liver biopsy at the time of bariatric surgery, and 12 and/or 60 months after surgery. We calculated the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), AST to platelet ratio index (APRI), Hepatic fibrosis score (HFS), Fibrotic NASH index (FNI), and Liver risk score (LRS) at each time point, and compared their performances for predicting significant fibrosis (F ≥ 2) and its resolution following surgery.

RESULTS

At baseline, 2436 patients had liver biopsy, including 261 (10.7 %) with significant fibrosis. Overall, 672 patients had pre- and post-operative biopsies (564 at M12 and 328 at M60). The fibrosis stage decreased at M12 and M60 (p < 0.001 vs M0). Resolution of significant fibrosis occurred in 58/121 (47.9 %) at M12 and 32/50 (64 %) at M60. The mean value of all tests decreased after surgery, except for FIB-4. Performances for predicting fibrosis resolution was higher at M60 than at M12 for all tests, and maximal at M60 for FNI and LRS: area under the curve 0.843 (95%CI 0.71-0.95) and 0.92 (95%CI 0.84-1.00); positive likelihood ratio 3.75 (95 % CI 1.33-10.59) and 4.58 (95 % CI 1.65-12.70), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Results showed the value and limits of non-invasive tests for monitoring the evolution of liver fibrosis after an intervention. Following bariatric surgery, the best performances to predict the resolution of significant fibrosis were observed at M60 with tests combining liver and metabolic traits, namely FNI and LRS.

Magnetic resonance elastography for the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B

Background and Aim

Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is used for the evaluation of liver fibrosis; however, it remains unclear whether MRE-based liver stiffness is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development, particularly in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

Methods

A total of 504 patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving MRE were enrolled. The primary endpoint was the association between MRE-based liver stiffness and HCC.

Results

In a cross-sectional analysis at the time of MRE measurement, the median (interquartile range) liver stiffness values in patients with presence or history of HCC and those without HCC were 3.68 (2.89-4.96) and 2.60 (2.22-3.45) kPa, respectively, and liver stiffness was significantly higher in patients with presence or history of HCC than in those without HCC (P < 0.001). In a longitudinal analysis of patients without HCC, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC in patients with liver stiffness ≥3.6 kPa and those with liver stiffness <3.6 kPa were 3.8%, 7.0%, and 22.9%, and 0%, 0.9%, and 1.5%, respectively (P < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, MRE-based liver stiffness (per 1 kPa) or liver stiffness ≥3.6 kPa was an independent factor for HCC development with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 1.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-2.0) or aHR of 8.22 (95% CI, 2.1-31).

Conclusion

MRE-based liver stiffness is associated with HCC risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B and may be used for the early prediction of HCC development and determination of indications for treatment.

AST to ALT ratio as a prospective risk predictor for liver cirrhosis in patients with chronic HBV infection

BACKGROUND

Serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (AAR) is one of the most frequent indicators to discriminate fibrosis and cirrhosis. However, the results remained controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive effect of AAR on hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis development.

METHOD

A retrospective cohort study was conducted based on 1754 chronic HBV-infected patients. Clinical variables at their initial visit and follow-up data were collected. Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to evaluate the predictive value of AAR on cirrhosis risk, and its discrimination accuracy was determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC). The time-dependent effect was assessed by a Fine and Gray competing risk model.

RESULTS

Compared to patients with lower AAR, those with elevated AAR level had higher risk of cirrhosis development by adjusting for host characteristics (dichotomized analyses: hazard ratio = 2.77, P = 8.25 × 10 -4 ; tertile analyses: hazard ratio = 2.95, P = 1.61 × 10 -3 ), with an increasing risk trend ( Ptrend = 4.56 × 10 -4 ). The effect remained prominent when ALT or AST was abnormal, while no significant risk was observed when AST and ALT were simultaneously normal. Time-dependent effect analysis demonstrated a persistently higher risk, with the average hazard ratio equivalent to 1.92. AAR level could improve the discrimination efficacy of host variables with area under the curve increased from 0.684 to 0.711 ( P  =  0.039 ).

CONCLUSION

Higher AAR was significantly associated with increased risk of HBV-related cirrhosis, and might be a potential predictor of cirrhosis development.

Diagnosis and assessment of disease severity in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) includes simple steatosis, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), fibrosis, and eventually cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The diagnosis of NAFLD is based on the detection of excess fat disposition in the liver, which is the first step to trigger further evaluation of NAFLD, including necroinflammation and fibrosis. In this review, we discuss non-invasive biomarkers and imaging tools that are currently and potentially available for different features (steatosis, necroinflammation and fibrosis) and disease severity assessment of NAFLD. In the past 2 decades, advances in non-invasive tests of fibrosis have transformed the management of NAFLD. Blood and imaging biomarkers have already been evaluated in multiple studies for the diagnosis of fibrosis and cirrhosis. Among the various histological features of NAFLD, the degree of fibrosis has the strongest correlation with liver-related morbidity and mortality. Non-invasive tests of fibrosis have been shown to predict liver-related outcomes, both in the general population and among patients with NAFLD. What is lacking, however, is good data to support the use of non-invasive tests as monitoring and response biomarkers. With the conclusion of several large phase 3 studies in the next few years, the availability of paired liver biopsy, non-invasive test and clinical outcome data will likely advance the field and shed light on new biomarkers and the way to use various non-invasive tests in a longitudinal manner.

Associated factors with liver fibrosis in rheumatoid arthritis patients treated with methotrexate

INTRODUCTION

There are conflicting findings on the link between liver fibrosis and cumulative methotrexate dosages. We aimed to determine the frequency of liver fibrosis in rheumatoid arthritis patients treated with methotrexate and to identify its associated factors.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study over 9 months (April-December 2021), including rheumatoid arthritis patients treated with methotrexate. Demographic and clinical data were collected. Liver stiffness was assessed by FibroScan. Fibrosis and significant liver fibrosis were defined as liver stiffness higher than 6 and 7.2 kPa, respectively. Liver tests, albuminemia, lipid profile, and blood glycemia were measured. Metabolic syndrome was also evaluated. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS.

RESULTS

We included 21 men and 47 women. The mean age was 51.60 ± 1.82 years. The mean disease duration was 8.29 ± 6.48 years. The mean weekly intake of methotrexate was 13.76 ± 3.91 mg. The mean methotrexate duration was 4.67 ± 4.24 years. The mean cumulative dose was 3508.87 ± 3390.48 mg. Hypoalbuminemia and metabolic syndrome were found in 34% and 25% of cases. We noted increased alkaline phosphatase levels in four cases. The mean liver stiffness was 4.50 ± 1.53 kPa. Nine patients had liver fibrosis, and four had significant fibrosis. Associated factors with liver fibrosis were as follows: age ≥ 60 years (OR:22.703; 95%CI [1.238-416.487]; p = 0.035), cumulated dose of methotrexate ≥ 3 g (OR: 76.501; 95%CI [2.383-2456.070]; p = 0.014), metabolic syndrome (OR: 42.743; 95%CI [1.728-1057.273]; p = 0.022), elevated alkaline phosphatase levels (OR: 28.252; 95%CI [1.306-611.007]; p = 0.033), and hypoalbuminemia (OR: 59.302; 95%CI [2.361-1489.718]; p = 0.013).

CONCLUSION

Cumulating more than 3 g of methotrexate was associated with liver fibrosis in rheumatoid arthritis patients. Having a metabolic syndrome, higher age, hypoalbuminemia, and elevated alkaline phosphatase levels were also likely to be independently associated with liver fibrosis. Key points • Rheumatoid arthritis patients require monitoring hepatic fibrosis when the cumulated dose of methotrexate is above 3 g. • Metabolic syndrome is a risk factor for liver fibrosis, suggesting that its management is necessary to prevent this complication. • Hypoalbuminemia and elevated alkaline phosphatase levels (twice the upper limit) in rheumatoid arthritis patients treated with methotrexate were associated with liver fibrosis.

Machine learning approaches to enhance diagnosis and staging of patients with MASLD using routinely available clinical information

AIMS

Metabolic dysfunction Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD) outcomes such as MASH (metabolic dysfunction associated steatohepatitis), fibrosis and cirrhosis are ordinarily determined by resource-intensive and invasive biopsies. We aim to show that routine clinical tests offer sufficient information to predict these endpoints.

METHODS

Using the LITMUS Metacohort derived from the European NAFLD Registry, the largest MASLD dataset in Europe, we create three combinations of features which vary in degree of procurement including a 19-variable feature set that are attained through a routine clinical appointment or blood test. This data was used to train predictive models using supervised machine learning (ML) algorithm XGBoost, alongside missing imputation technique MICE and class balancing algorithm SMOTE. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were added to determine relative importance for each clinical variable.

RESULTS

Analysing nine biopsy-derived MASLD outcomes of cohort size ranging between 5385 and 6673 subjects, we were able to predict individuals at training set AUCs ranging from 0.719-0.994, including classifying individuals who are At-Risk MASH at an AUC = 0.899. Using two further feature combinations of 26-variables and 35-variables, which included composite scores known to be good indicators for MASLD endpoints and advanced specialist tests, we found predictive performance did not sufficiently improve. We are also able to present local and global explanations for each ML model, offering clinicians interpretability without the expense of worsening predictive performance.

CONCLUSIONS

This study developed a series of ML models of accuracy ranging from 71.9-99.4% using only easily extractable and readily available information in predicting MASLD outcomes which are usually determined through highly invasive means.

Understanding the Burden of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: Time for Action

The prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in the United States is 38%, having increased by 50% within the past 3 decades. The estimated NAFLD prevalence among people with type 2 diabetes is 55-70%. The presence of type 2 diabetes is associated with a higher likelihood of progression of NAFLD to fibrosis development, liver transplant, and death. Cardiovascular disease is the main cause of mortality among people with NAFLD, and the risk of death is significantly higher in people with both NAFLD and type 2 diabetes. NAFLD carries high patient and economic burdens but low awareness among both the general public and health care providers. This article reviews the epidemiology of NAFLD and discusses the need for appropriate risk stratification, referral for specialty care, management of cardiometabolic risk factors, and treatment of the disease. The authors present a call to action to raise awareness of NAFLD and address its increasing burden in a systematic and efficient manner.

Algorithms for Early Detection of Silent Liver Fibrosis in the Primary Care Setting

More than one-third of the adult world population has steatotic liver disease (SLD), with a few percent of individuals developing cirrhosis after decades of silent liver fibrosis accumulation. Lack of systematic early detection causes most patients to be diagnosed late, after decompensation, when treatment has limited effect and survival is poor. Unfortunately, no isolated screening test in primary care can sufficiently predict advanced fibrosis from SLD. Recent efforts, therefore, combine several parameters into screening algorithms, to increase diagnostic accuracy. Besides patient selection, for example, by specific characteristics, algorithms include nonpatented or patented blood tests and liver stiffness measurements using elastography-based techniques. Algorithms can be composed as a set of sequential tests, as recommended by most guidelines on primary care pathways. Future use of algorithms that are easy to interpret, cheap, and semiautomatic will improve the management of patients with SLD, to the benefit of global health care systems.

Can liquid biopsies for MASH help increase the penetration of metabolic surgery? A narrative review

This narrative review highlights current evidence on non-invasive tests to predict the presence or absence as well as the severity of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) and liver fibrosis. Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is a common condition characterized by fat accumulation in the liver that affects 32 % of the world population. The most severe form of MASLD is MASH in which hepatocyte ballooning and inflammation are present together with steatosis; MASH is often associated with liver fibrosis. MASH diagnosis is determined by invasive liver biopsy. Hence, there is a critical need for non-invasive MASH tests. Plasma biomarkers for MASH diagnosis generally have low sensitivity (62-66 %), and specificity (78-82 %). Monocyte levels of Perilipin2 (PLIN2) predict MASH with an accuracy of 92-93 %, and sensitivity and specificity of 90-95 % and 88-100 %, respectively. This liquid biopsy test can facilitate the study of MASH prevalence in general populations and also monitor the effects of lifestyle, surgical, and pharmacological interventions. Without any FDA-approved MASH therapeutic, and with metabolic surgery markedly surpassing the efficacy of lifestyle modification, an accurate and reliable liquid biopsy could help more people choose surgery as a treatment for MASH.

NIS2+TM as a screening tool to optimize patient selection in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis clinical trials

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Strategies to reduce liver biopsy (LB) screen failures through better patient selection are needed for clinical trials. Standard fibrosis biomarkers were not derived to detect "at-risk" metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH; MASH with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease score ≥4 and fibrosis stage ≥2). We compared the performance of screening pathways that incorporate NIS2+™, an optimized version of the blood-based NIS4® technology designed to identify at-risk MASH, with those incorporating fibrosis (FIB)-4 within the RESOLVE-IT clinical trial (NCT02704403), aiming for optimized selection of patients for LB.

METHODS

A retrospective simulation analysis was conducted in the RESOLVE-IT screening pathway (RSP) cohort. LB failure rate (LBFR), number of patients needed to screen, and overall cost estimations of different pathways were calculated for a range of NIS2+™ and FIB-4 cut-offs and compared with those of the RSP, which relied on investigators' local practices. An analysis of potential recruitment bias based on histology, sex, age, or comorbidities was performed.

RESULTS

The analysis cohort included 1,929 patients, 765 (40%) with at-risk MASH. The NIS2+™ pathway resulted in a significantly lower LBFR (39%) compared with the FIB-4 pathway (58%) or the RSP (60%) when using cost-optimized cut-offs (NIS2+™, 0.53; FIB-4, 0.58). For every 1,000 inclusions, NIS2+™ significantly reduced unnecessary LBs (632 vs. 1,522; -58%) and screening costs (US$12.7 million vs. US$15.0 million) vs. the RSP, while the number of patients needed to screen increased moderately (3,220 to 4,033). NIS2+™ alone is better than FIB-4 alone or combined with FIB-4.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis demonstrated that patient selection for LB using NIS2+™ significantly reduced unnecessary biopsies and screening costs, which could greatly improve the feasibility of MASH clinical trials.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Simple and accurate non-invasive strategies to optimize the selection of patients who should be referred for liver biopsy for inclusion in MASH clinical trials is critical to reduce the high liver biopsy failure rates. While the use of the Fibrosis-4 index alone did not lead to a significant improvement of the screening process, selecting patients using NIS2+™, a recently developed optimization of the NIS4® technology for the detection of at-risk MASH, showed improved performance by simultaneously reducing liver biopsy failure rates and the overall cost of the trial, while maintaining the number of patients needed to screen at a manageable level and not generating any bias in included patients' characteristics. This makes NIS2+™ an accurate and reliable screening tool that could improve the recruitment of patients in future MASH clinical trials, and would lead to increased patient comfort and security, ensuring timely and cost-efficient trial completion.

Taiwan Association for the Study of the Liver-Taiwan Society of Cardiology Taiwan position statement for the management of metabolic dysfunction- associated fatty liver disease and cardiovascular diseases

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is an increasingly common liver disease worldwide. MAFLD is diagnosed based on the presence of steatosis on images, histological findings, or serum marker levels as well as the presence of at least one of the three metabolic features: overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and metabolic risk factors. MAFLD is not only a liver disease but also a factor contributing to or related to cardiovascular diseases (CVD), which is the major etiology responsible for morbidity and mortality in patients with MAFLD. Hence, understanding the association between MAFLD and CVD, surveillance and risk stratification of MAFLD in patients with CVD, and assessment of the current status of MAFLD management are urgent requirements for both hepatologists and cardiologists. This Taiwan position statement reviews the literature and provides suggestions regarding the epidemiology, etiology, risk factors, risk stratification, nonpharmacological interventions, and potential drug treatments of MAFLD, focusing on its association with CVD.

A prospective study on the prevalence of MASLD in people with type-2 diabetes in the community. Cost effectiveness of screening strategies

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

As screening for the liver disease and risk-stratification pathways are not established in patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), we evaluated the diagnostic performance and the cost-utility of different screening strategies for MASLD in the community.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with T2DM from primary care underwent screening for liver diseases, ultrasound, ELF score and transient elastography (TE). Five strategies were compared to the standard of care: ultrasound plus abnormal liver function tests (LFTs), Fibrosis score-4 (FIB-4), NAFLD fibrosis score, Enhanced liver fibrosis test (ELF) and TE. Standard of care was defined as abnormal LFTs prompting referral to hospital. A Markov model was built based on the fibrosis stage, defined by TE. We generated the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a lifetime horizon.

RESULTS

Of 300 patients, 287 were included: 64% (186) had MASLD and 10% (28) had other causes of liver disease. Patients with significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis due to MASLD were 17% (50/287), 11% (31/287) and 3% (8/287), respectively. Among those with significant fibrosis classified by LSM≥8.1 kPa, false negatives were 54% from ELF and 38% from FIB-4. On multivariate analysis, waist circumference, BMI, AST levels and education rank were independent predictors of significant and advanced fibrosis. All the screening strategies were associated with QALY gains, with TE (148.73 years) having the most substantial gains, followed by FIB-4 (134.07 years), ELF (131.68 years) and NAFLD fibrosis score (121.25 years). In the cost-utility analysis, ICER was £2480/QALY for TE, £2541.24/QALY for ELF and £2059.98/QALY for FIB-4.

CONCLUSION

Screening for MASLD in the diabetic population in primary care is cost-effective and should become part of a holistic assessment. However, traditional screening strategies, including FIB-4 and ELF, underestimate the presence of significant liver disease in this setting.

Development and Validation of the Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Familial Risk Score to Detect Advanced Fibrosis: A Prospective, Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related fibrosis is heritable, but it is unclear how family history may be used to identify first-degree relatives with advanced fibrosis. We aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score to identify first-degree relatives of probands who have undergone assessment of liver fibrosis who are at higher risk of NAFLD with advanced fibrosis.

METHODS

This prospective, cross-sectional, familial study consisted of a derivation cohort from San Diego, California, and a validation cohort from Helsinki, Finland. This study included consecutive adult probands (n = 242) with NAFLD and advanced fibrosis, NAFLD without advanced fibrosis, and non-NAFLD, with at least 1 of their first-degree relatives. All included probands and first-degree relatives underwent evaluation of liver fibrosis, the majority by magnetic resonance elastography.

RESULTS

A total of 396 first-degree relatives (64% male) were included. The median age and body mass index were 47 years (interquartile range, 32-62 y) and 27.6 kg/m2 (interquartile range, 24.1-32.5 kg/m2), respectively. Age (1 point), type 2 diabetes (1 point), obesity (2 points), and proband with NAFLD and advanced fibrosis (2 points) were predictors of advanced fibrosis among first-degree relatives in the derivation cohort (n = 220) and formed the NAFLD Familial Risk Score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of the NAFLD Familial Risk Score for detecting advanced fibrosis was 0.94 in the validation cohort (n = 176). The NAFLD Familial Risk Score outperformed the Fibrosis-4 index in the validation cohort (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.94 vs 0.70; P = .02).

CONCLUSIONS

The NAFLD Familial Risk Score is a simple and accurate clinical tool to identify advanced fibrosis in first-degree relatives. These data may have implications for surveillance in NAFLD.

Close association of PFASs exposure with hepatic fibrosis than steatosis: evidences from NHANES 2017-2018

Multiple animals and in vitro studies have demonstrated that perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) exposure causes liver damage associated with fat metabolism. However, it is lack of population evidence for the correlation between PFAS exposure and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). A cross-sectional analysis was performed of 1150 participants aged over 20 from the US. Liver ultrasound transient elastography was to identify the participants with NAFLD and multiple biomarkers were the indicators for hepatic steatosis and hepatic fibrosis. Logistics regression and restricted cubic splines models were used to estimate the association between PFASs and NAFLD. PFASs had not a significant association with NAFLD after adjustment. The hepatic steatosis indicators including fatty liver index, NAFLD liver fat score, and Framingham steatosis index were almost not significantly correlated with PFASs exposure respectively. But fibrosis indicators including fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), NAFLD fibrosis score, and Hepamet fibrosis score were positively correlated with each type of PFASs exposure. After adjustment by gender, age, race, education, and poverty income rate, there was also a significant correlation between PFOS and FIB-4 with 0.07 (0.01, 0.13). The mixed PFASs were associated with FIB-4, with PFOS contributing the most (PIP = 1.000) by the Bayesian kernel machine regression model. The results suggested PFASs exposure appeared to be more closely associated with hepatic fibrosis than steatosis, and PFOS might be the main cause of PFASs associated with hepatic fibrosis.Key messagesCurrent exposure doses of PFAS did not significantly change the risk of developing NAFLD.PFASs exposure appeared to be more closely associated with hepatic fibrosis than steatosis.PFOS might be the main cause of PFASs associated with hepatic fibrosis.

Magnetic resonance elastography-based prediction model for hepatic decompensation in NAFLD: A multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is an accurate, continuous biomarker of liver fibrosis; however, the optimal combination with clinical factors to predict the risk of incident hepatic decompensation is unknown. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate an MRE-based prediction model for hepatic decompensation for patients with NAFLD.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This international multicenter cohort study included participants with NAFLD undergoing MRE from 6 hospitals. A total of 1254 participants were randomly assigned as training (n = 627) and validation (n = 627) cohorts. The primary end point was hepatic decompensation, defined as the first occurrence of variceal hemorrhage, ascites, or HE. Covariates associated with hepatic decompensation on Cox-regression were combined with MRE to construct a risk prediction model in the training cohort and then tested in the validation cohort. The median (IQR) age and MRE values were 61 (18) years and 3.5 (2.5) kPa in the training cohort and 60 (20) years and 3.4 (2.5) kPa in the validation cohort, respectively. The MRE-based multivariable model that included age, MRE, albumin, aspartate aminotransferase, and platelets had excellent discrimination for the 3- and 5-year risk of hepatic decompensation (c-statistic 0.912 and 0.891, respectively) in the training cohort. The diagnostic accuracy remained consistent in the validation cohort with a c-statistic of 0.871 and 0.876 for hepatic decompensation at 3 and 5 years, respectively, and was superior to Fibrosis-4 in both cohorts ( p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

An MRE-based prediction model allows for accurate prediction of hepatic decompensation and assists in the risk stratification of patients with NAFLD.

FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase (FAST) score for monitoring histological improvement in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis activity during semaglutide treatment: post-hoc analysis of a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2b trial

Background

Currently, assessment of candidate pharmacotherapies in patients with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) involves invasive liver biopsy. Non-invasive scores, such as the FibroScan-aspartate aminotransferase (FAST) score, are used to identify candidates for therapy, but their ability to assess disease progression or treatment effect is unknown. We aimed to assess the association between FAST score and histological endpoints.

Methods

We conducted a post-hoc analysis using data from a prior randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2b trial at 143 sites across 16 countries. Patients (aged 18-75 years) with biopsy-confirmed NASH, fibrosis stage 1-3, and a Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease Activity Score (NAS) ≥4 were enrolled between January 2017 and September 2018, and randomly assigned to receive once-daily subcutaneous semaglutide 0.1, 0.2, or 0.4 mg or placebo for 72 weeks. A subgroup analysis of patients with FAST score and histological data in the pooled semaglutide treatment and placebo arms at baseline and week 72 was performed. The original trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02970942.

Findings

A total of 122 patients were included in this post-hoc analysis (93 received semaglutide and 29 received placebo). FAST score reduction was associated with achieving the primary endpoint of NASH resolution without worsening of fibrosis in the pooled semaglutide group (area under the receiver operating curve 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58, 0.81). Mean FAST score reduction from baseline to week 72 was greatest in patients who met the primary endpoint vs those who did not in both the semaglutide (-0.40 [95% CI -0.84, 0.04] vs -0.22 [95% CI -0.74, 0.30] points; p = 0.002) and placebo groups (-0.25 [95% CI -0.72, 0.23] vs 0.00 [95% CI -0.50, 0.50] points; p = 0.047). Similarly, mean reductions in FAST score at week 72 were greater in those with NAS improvement vs those without in the semaglutide and placebo groups (≥1 point, -0.36 [95% CI -0.82, 0.11] vs -0.08 [95% CI -0.53, 0.38] points [p < 0.001] and -0.25 [95% CI -0.64, 0.14] vs -0.06 [95% CI -0.40, 0.53] points [p = 0.001]; ≥2 points, -0.40 [95% CI -0.86, 0.06] vs -0.14 [95% CI -0.56, 0.28] points [p < 0.001] and -0.29 [95% CI -0.67, 0.09] vs -0.05 [95% CI -0.40, 0.50] points; [p < 0.001]). A FAST score reduction of more than 0.22 points after semaglutide treatment was associated with meeting the primary endpoint (sensitivity 78%; specificity 60%; positive likelihood ratio 1.26; negative likelihood ratio 0.25; odds ratio 4.93).

Interpretation

The potential of the FAST score as a non-invasive monitoring tool to identify histological changes following treatment requires further evaluation and validation.

Funding

Novo Nordisk A/S.

Lifestyle interventions in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a dynamic chronic liver disease that develops in close association with metabolic irregularities. Between 2016 and 2019, the global prevalence among adults was reported as 38% and among children and adolescents it was about 10%. NAFLD can be progressive and is associated with increased mortality from cardiovascular disease, extrahepatic cancers and liver complications. Despite these numerous adverse outcomes, no pharmacological treatments currently exist to treat nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, the progressive form of NAFLD. Therefore, the main treatment is the pursuit of a healthy lifestyle for both children and adults, which includes a diet rich in fruits, nuts, seeds, whole grains, fish and chicken and avoiding overconsumption of ultra-processed food, red meat, sugar-sweetened beverages and foods cooked at high heat. Physical activity at a level where one can talk but not sing is also recommended, including leisure-time activities and structured exercise. Avoidance of smoking and alcohol is also recommended. Policy-makers, community and school leaders need to work together to make their environments healthy by developing walkable and safe spaces with food stores stocked with culturally appropriate and healthy food items at affordable prices as well as providing age-appropriate and safe play areas in both schools and neighbourhoods.

Prevalence and associated metabolic factors of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in the general population from 2014 to 2018 in Japan: A large-scale multicenter retrospective study

AIM

The prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing worldwide. The aim of this study was to determine the recent prevalence and clinical characteristics of NAFLD in Japan.

METHODS

This study initially included 410 061 retrospectively enrolled adults from the medical health checkup registry for metabolic syndrome, chronic kidney disease, and fatty liver in Japan (MIRACLE-J; UMIN-CTR no. UMIN000049419), who were evaluated between 2014 and 2018 at 13 health centers in Japan. Individuals consuming >20 g of alcohol/day or with chronic liver disease were excluded. Fatty liver was diagnosed by ultrasonography. The probability of NAFLD with advanced fibrosis was estimated based on the fibrosis-4 index and NAFLD fibrosis score.

RESULTS

A total of 71 254 participants were included in the final analysis. The overall prevalence of NAFLD was 25.8%. There was a significant, twofold difference in NAFLD prevalence between men (37.4%) and women (18.1%). Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease prevalence increased linearly with body mass index, triglycerides, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol regardless of threshold values, even in the absence of obesity. Among patients with NAFLD, 14% had diabetes mellitus, 31% had hypertension, and 48% had dyslipidemia. The estimated prevalence of NAFLD with advanced fibrosis was 1.7% and 1.0% according to the fibrosis-4 index and NAFLD fibrosis score, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of NAFLD was approximately one-quarter of the general population in Japan. There was a linear relationship between NAFLD prevalence and various metabolic parameters, even in nonobese participants. The prevalence of NAFLD with advanced fibrosis was estimated to be 1%-2%.

Identification of High-Risk Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Endocrinology Clinics

The twin epidemics of obesity and type 2 diabetes continue to increase worldwide, so does the associated chronic liver disease, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Although NAFLD has been thought of as a benign liver disease, current evidence suggests that it is a complex liver disease that, for approximately 20% of patients, can progress to fibrosis, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplant, and death. It is important to note that, given NAFLD's association with metabolic syndrome, the number one cause of death among those with NAFLD is related to cardiovascular diseases. In addition, NAFLD is associated with impaired patient-reported outcomes and a significant economic burden. As such, efforts are now aimed at using noninvasive tests (NITs) to identify patients with NAFLD and those who are at risk of liver disease progression and adverse outcomes in endocrinology practices whereby appropriate risk stratification and referrals can be undertaken. In this review, we discuss the most common NITs used and provide a simple clinically relevant algorithm using these NITs to identify patients with NAFLD who are at risk of adverse outcomes and subsequent clinical management and referral.

Prospective direct comparison of non-invasive liver tests in outpatients with type 2 diabetes using intention-to-diagnose analysis

BACKGROUND

No prospective diagnostic studies have directly compared widespread non-invasive liver tests in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) using the intention-to-diagnose method for each of the three main histological features of metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease - namely fibrosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), and steatosis.

AIMS

To compare the performance of nine tests using the intention-to-diagnose rather than the standard method, which would exclude non-evaluable participants METHODS: Biopsy was used as the reference with predetermined cut-offs, advanced fibrosis being the main endpoint. The Nash-FibroTest panel including FibroTest-T2D, SteatoTest-T2D and MashTest-T2D was optimised for type 2 diabetes. FibroTest-T2D was compared to vibration-controlled transient elastography stiffness (VCTE), two-dimensional shear-wave elastography stiffness (TD-SWE), and Fibrosis-4 blood test. NashTest-T2D was compared to aspartate aminotransferase. SteatoTest-T2D was compared to the controlled attenuation parameter and the hepatorenal gradient.

RESULTS

Among 402 cases, non-evaluable tests were 6.7% for VCTE, 4.0% for hepatorenal gradient, 3.2% for controlled attenuation parameter, 1.5% for TD-SWE, 1.2% for NashTest-T2D, and 0.02% for Fibrosis-4, aspartate aminotransferase and SteatoTest-T2D. The VCTE AUROC for advanced fibrosis was over-estimated by 6% (0.83 [95% CI: 0.78-0.87]) by standard analysis compared to intention-to-diagnose (0.77 [0.72-0.81] p = 0.008). The AUROCs for advanced fibrosis did not differ significantly in intention-to-diagnose between FibroTest-T2D (0.77; 95% CI: 0.73-0.82), VCTE (0.77; 95% CI: 0.72-0.81) and TD-SWE(0.78; 0.74-0.83) but were all higher than the Fibrosis-4 score (0.70; 95% CI all differences ≥7%; p ≤ 0.03). For MASH, MashTest-T2D had a higher AUROC (0.76; 95% CI: 0.70-0.80) than aspartate aminotransferase (0.72; 95% CI: 0.66-0.77; p = 0.035). For steatosis, AUROCs did not differ significantly between SteatoTest-T2D, controlled attenuation parameter and hepatorenal gradient.

CONCLUSIONS

In intention-to-diagnose analysis, FibroTest-T2D, TD-SWE and VCTE performed similarly for staging fibrosis, and out-performed Fibrosis-4 in outpatients with type 2 diabetes. The standard analysis over-estimated VCTE performance.

CLINICALTRIAL

gov: NCT03634098.

Serum levels of fibrogenesis biomarkers reveal distinct endotypes predictive of response to weight loss in advanced nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND

NAFLD is associated with activation of fibroblasts and hepatic fibrosis. Substantial patient heterogeneity exists, so it remains challenging to risk-stratify patients. We hypothesized that the amount of fibroblast activity, as assessed by circulating biomarkers of collagen formation, can define a "high-risk, high-fibrogenesis" patient endotype that exhibits greater fibroblast activity and potentially more progressive disease, and this endotype may be more amendable to dietary intervention.

METHODS

Patients with clinically confirmed advanced NAFLD were prescribed a very low-calorie diet (VLCD) intervention (∼800 kcal/d) to induce weight loss, achieved using total diet replacement. Serum markers of type III (PRO-C3) and IV collagen (PRO-C4) fibrogenesis were assessed at baseline every second week until the end of the VLCD, and 4 weeks post-VLCD and at 9 months follow-up.

RESULTS

Twenty-six subjects had a mean weight loss of 9.7% with VLCD. This was associated with significant improvements in liver biochemistry. When stratified by baseline PRO-C3 and PRO-C4 into distinct fibrosis endotypes, these predicted substantial differences in collagen fibrogenesis marker dynamics in response to VLCD. Patients in the high activity group (PRO-C3 >11.4 ng/mL and/or PRO-C4 >236.5 ng/mL) exhibited a marked reduction of collagen fibrogenesis, ranging from a 40%-55% decrease in PRO-C3 and PRO-C4, while fibrogenesis remained unchanged in the low activity group. The biochemical response to weight loss was substantially greater in patients a priori exhibiting a high fibroblast activity endotype in contrast to patients with low activity.

CONCLUSIONS

Thus, the likelihood of treatment response may be predicted at baseline by quantification of fibrogenesis biomarkers.

NASH drug treatment development: challenges and lessons

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. Although NAFLD is tightly linked to obesity and type 2 diabetes, this liver disease also affects individuals who do not have obesity. NAFLD increases the risk of developing cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and certain extrahepatic cancers. There is currently no licensed pharmacotherapy for NAFLD, despite numerous clinical trials in the past two decades. Currently, the reason so few drugs have been successful in the treatment of NAFLD in a trial setting is not fully understood. As cardiovascular disease is the predominant cause of mortality in people with NAFLD, future pharmacotherapies for NAFLD must consider associated cardiometabolic risk factors. The successful use of glucose-lowering drugs in the treatment of type 2 diabetes in patients with NAFLD indicates that this strategy is important, and worth developing further. Greater public awareness of NAFLD is needed because collaboration between all stakeholders is vital to enable a holistic approach to successful treatment.

Prevalence of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Adult Individuals with Moderate-to-Severe Atopic Dermatitis

BACKGROUND

There are no published studies on the prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in patients with atopic dermatitis (AD).

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the prevalence of NAFLD (assessed via liver ultrasonography) in adults with moderate-to-severe AD.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective, cross-sectional, observational study including adult patients affected by moderate-to-severe AD, moderate-to-severe chronic plaque psoriasis, or a previous diagnosis of thin melanoma in situ (considered as the control group) who attended the Verona University Hospital between January 2022 and April 2023. Fatty liver was assessed via liver ultrasonography.

RESULTS

A total of 144 adults with AD, 466 with chronic plaque psoriasis, and 99 with thin melanoma were included. The prevalence rates of ultrasound-detected NAFLD among patients with in situ melanoma, those with moderate-to-severe AD, and those with moderate-to-severe chronic plaque psoriasis were 23.2% (23 out of 99), 24.1% (36 out of 144), and 49.8% (228 out of 466), respectively (p < 0.01). Logistic regression analysis revealed that being of male sex, a higher age, a higher body mass index, and psoriasis were independently associated with NAFLD, whereas AD was not.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that the prevalence of ultrasound-detected NAFLD in patients with moderate-to-severe AD was comparable to that of patients with a previous diagnosis of in situ melanoma. It is plausible to hypothesize that the Th2-type inflammation typically characterizing AD is not a risk factor for NAFLD. Patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis, but not those with AD, should be screened for NAFLD and other metabolic comorbidities.

A global research priority agenda to advance public health responses to fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

An estimated 38% of adults worldwide have non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). From individual impacts to widespread public health and economic consequences, the implications of this disease are profound. This study aimed to develop an aligned, prioritised fatty liver disease research agenda for the global health community.

METHODS

Nine co-chairs drafted initial research priorities, subsequently reviewed by 40 core authors and debated during a three-day in-person meeting. Following a Delphi methodology, over two rounds, a large panel (R1 n = 344, R2 n = 288) reviewed the priorities, via Qualtrics XM, indicating agreement using a four-point Likert-scale and providing written feedback. The core group revised the draft priorities between rounds. In R2, panellists also ranked the priorities within six domains: epidemiology, models of care, treatment and care, education and awareness, patient and community perspectives, and leadership and public health policy.

RESULTS

The consensus-built fatty liver disease research agenda encompasses 28 priorities. The mean percentage of 'agree' responses increased from 78.3 in R1 to 81.1 in R2. Five priorities received unanimous combined agreement ('agree' + 'somewhat agree'); the remaining 23 priorities had >90% combined agreement. While all but one of the priorities exhibited at least a super-majority of agreement (>66.7% 'agree'), 13 priorities had <80% 'agree', with greater reliance on 'somewhat agree' to achieve >90% combined agreement.

CONCLUSIONS

Adopting this multidisciplinary consensus-built research priorities agenda can deliver a step-change in addressing fatty liver disease, mitigating against its individual and societal harms and proactively altering its natural history through prevention, identification, treatment, and care. This agenda should catalyse the global health community's efforts to advance and accelerate responses to this widespread and fast-growing public health threat.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

An estimated 38% of adults and 13% of children and adolescents worldwide have fatty liver disease, making it the most prevalent liver disease in history. Despite substantial scientific progress in the past three decades, the burden continues to grow, with an urgent need to advance understanding of how to prevent, manage, and treat the disease. Through a global consensus process, a multidisciplinary group agreed on 28 research priorities covering a broad range of themes, from disease burden, treatment, and health system responses to awareness and policy. The findings have relevance for clinical and non-clinical researchers as well as funders working on fatty liver disease and non-communicable diseases more broadly, setting out a prioritised, ranked research agenda for turning the tide on this fast-growing public health threat.

Type 2 diabetes, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant-level data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Data are scarce regarding the development of hepatic decompensation in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with and without type 2 diabetes. We aimed to assess the risk of hepatic decompensation in people with NAFLD with and without type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We did a meta-analysis of individual participant-level data from six cohorts in the USA, Japan, and Turkey. Included participants had magnetic resonance elastography between Feb 27, 2007, and June 4, 2021. Eligible studies included those with liver fibrosis characterisation by magnetic resonance elastography, longitudinal assessment for hepatic decompensation and death, and included adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with NAFLD, for whom data were available regarding the presence of type 2 diabetes at baseline. The primary outcome was hepatic decompensation, defined as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, or variceal bleeding. The secondary outcome was the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. We used competing risk regression using the Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) to compare the likelihood of hepatic decompensation in participants with and without type 2 diabetes. Death without hepatic decompensation was a competing event.

FINDINGS

Data for 2016 participants (736 with type 2 diabetes; 1280 without type 2 diabetes) from six cohorts were included in this analysis. 1074 (53%) of 2016 participants were female with a mean age of 57·8 years (SD 14·2) years and BMI of 31·3 kg/m2 (SD 7·4). Among 1737 participants (602 with type 2 diabetes and 1135 without type 2 diabetes) with available longitudinal data, 105 participants developed hepatic decompensation over a median follow-up time of 2·8 years (IQR 1·4-5·5). Participants with type 2 diabetes had a significantly higher risk of hepatic decompensation at 1 year (3·37% [95% CI 2·10-5·11] vs 1·07% [0·57-1·86]), 3 years (7·49% [5·36-10·08] vs 2·92% [1·92-4·25]), and 5 years (13·85% [10·43-17·75] vs 3·95% [2·67-5·60]) than participants without type 2 diabetes (p<0·0001). After adjustment for multiple confounders (age, BMI, and race), type 2 diabetes (sHR 2·15 [95% CI 1·39-3·34]; p=0·0006) and glycated haemoglobin (1·31 [95% CI 1·10-1·55]; p=0·0019) were independent predictors of hepatic decompensation. The association between type 2 diabetes and hepatic decompensation remained consistent after adjustment for baseline liver stiffness determined by magnetic resonance elastography. Over a median follow-up of 2·9 years (IQR 1·4-5·7), 22 of 1802 participants analysed (18 of 639 with type 2 diabetes and four of 1163 without type 2 diabetes) developed incident hepatocellular carcinoma. The risk of incident hepatocellular carcinoma was higher in those with type 2 diabetes at 1 year (1·34% [95% CI 0·64-2·54] vs 0·09% [0·01-0·50], 3 years (2·44% [1·36-4·05] vs 0·21% [0·04-0·73]), and 5 years (3·68% [2·18-5·77] vs 0·44% [0·11-1·33]) than in those without type 2 diabetes (p<0·0001). Type 2 diabetes was an independent predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma development (sHR 5·34 [1·67-17·09]; p=0·0048).

INTERPRETATION

Among people with NAFLD, the presence of type 2 diabetes is associated with a significantly higher risk of hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma.

FUNDING

National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

Changing epidemiology, global trends and implications for outcomes of NAFLD

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has rapidly become the most common liver disease globally and is currently estimated to affect 38% of the global population. Only a minority of patients with NAFLD will progress to cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma, but from this vast population the total number of patients who are at risk of such severe outcomes is increasing. Worryingly, individuals are increasingly being affected by NAFLD at an earlier age, meaning there is more time for them to develop severe complications. With considerable changes in dietary composition and urbanisation, alongside the growth in obesity and type 2 diabetes in the global population, in particular in developing countries, the global proportion of persons affected by NAFLD is projected to increase further. Yet, there are large geographical discrepancies in the prevalence rates of NAFLD and its inflammatory component non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Such differences are partly related to differing socio-economic milieus, but also to genetic predisposition. In this narrative review, we discuss recent changes in the epidemiology of NAFLD and NASH from regional and global perspectives, as well as in special populations. We also discuss the potential consequences of these changes on hepatic and extrahepatic events.