SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR Test Detection Rates Are Associated with Patient Age, Sex, and Time since Diagnosis

Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics

Researchers and policymakers have proposed systems to detect novel pathogens earlier than existing surveillance systems by monitoring samples from hospital patients, wastewater, and air travel, in order to mitigate future pandemics. How much benefit would such systems offer? We developed, empirically validated, and mathematically characterized a quantitative model that simulates disease spread and detection time for any given disease and detection system. We find that hospital monitoring could have detected COVID-19 in Wuhan 0.4 weeks earlier than it was actually discovered, at 2,300 cases (standard error: 76 cases) compared to 3,400 (standard error: 161 cases). Wastewater monitoring would not have accelerated COVID-19 detection in Wuhan, but provides benefit in smaller catchments and for asymptomatic or long-incubation diseases like polio or HIV/AIDS. Air travel monitoring does not accelerate outbreak detection in most scenarios we evaluated. In sum, early detection systems can substantially mitigate some future pandemics, but would not have changed the course of COVID-19.

Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics

Researchers and policymakers have proposed systems to detect novel pathogens earlier than existing surveillance systems by monitoring samples from hospital patients, wastewater, and air travel, in order to mitigate future pandemics. How much benefit would such systems offer? We developed, empirically validated, and mathematically characterized a quantitative model that simulates disease spread and detection time for any given disease and detection system. We find that hospital monitoring could have detected COVID-19 in Wuhan 0.4 weeks earlier than it was actually discovered, at 2,300 cases (standard error: 76 cases) compared to 3,400 (standard error: 161 cases). Wastewater monitoring would not have accelerated COVID-19 detection in Wuhan, but provides benefit in smaller catchments and for asymptomatic or long-incubation diseases like polio or HIV/AIDS. Monitoring of air travel provides little benefit in most scenarios we evaluated. In sum, early detection systems can substantially mitigate some future pandemics, but would not have changed the course of COVID-19.

Risk of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection associated with pre-coronavirus disease obstructive sleep apnea diagnoses: an electronic health record-based analysis from the RECOVER initiative

STUDY OBJECTIVES

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been associated with more severe acute coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. We assessed OSA as a potential risk factor for Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC).

METHODS

We assessed the impact of preexisting OSA on the risk for probable PASC in adults and children using electronic health record data from multiple research networks. Three research networks within the REsearching COVID to Enhance Recovery initiative (PCORnet Adult, PCORnet Pediatric, and the National COVID Cohort Collaborative [N3C]) employed a harmonized analytic approach to examine the risk of probable PASC in COVID-19-positive patients with and without a diagnosis of OSA prior to pandemic onset. Unadjusted odds ratios (ORs) were calculated as well as ORs adjusted for age group, sex, race/ethnicity, hospitalization status, obesity, and preexisting comorbidities.

RESULTS

Across networks, the unadjusted OR for probable PASC associated with a preexisting OSA diagnosis in adults and children ranged from 1.41 to 3.93. Adjusted analyses found an attenuated association that remained significant among adults only. Multiple sensitivity analyses with expanded inclusion criteria and covariates yielded results consistent with the primary analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Adults with preexisting OSA were found to have significantly elevated odds of probable PASC. This finding was consistent across data sources, approaches for identifying COVID-19-positive patients, and definitions of PASC. Patients with OSA may be at elevated risk for PASC after SARS-CoV-2 infection and should be monitored for post-acute sequelae.

Rapid antigen test as a tool for the identification of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its potential as a self-testing device

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 virus originated in Wuhan (China) in December (2019) and quickly spread worldwide. Antigen tests are rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) that produce results in 15-30 min and are an important tool for the scale-up of COVID-19 testing. COVID-19 diagnostic tests are authorized for self-testing at home in some countries, including Brazil. Widespread COVID-19 diagnostic testing is required to guide public health policies and control the speed of transmission and economic recovery.

METHODS

Patients with suspected COVID-19 were recruited at the Hospital da Baleia (Belo Horizonte, Brazil). The SARS-CoV-2 antigen-detecting rapid diagnostic tests were evaluated from June 2020 to June 2021 using saliva, nasal, and nasopharyngeal swab samples from 609 patients. Patient samples were simultaneously tested using a molecular assay (RT-qPCR). Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and positive and negative predictive values were determined using the statistical program, MedCalc, and GraphPad Prism 8.0.

RESULTS

The antigen-detecting rapid diagnostic tests displayed 98% specificity, 60% sensitivity, 96% positive predictive value, and moderate concordance with RT-qPCR. Substantial agreement was found between the two methods for patients tested < 7 days of symptom onset.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the use of Ag-RDT as a valuable and safe diagnostic method. Ag-RDT was also demonstrated to be an important triage tool for suspected COVID-19 patients in emergencies. Overall, Ag-RDT is an effective strategy for reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and contributing to COVID-19 control.

Long COVID: major findings, mechanisms and recommendations

Long COVID is an often debilitating illness that occurs in at least 10% of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. More than 200 symptoms have been identified with impacts on multiple organ systems. At least 65 million individuals worldwide are estimated to have long COVID, with cases increasing daily. Biomedical research has made substantial progress in identifying various pathophysiological changes and risk factors and in characterizing the illness; further, similarities with other viral-onset illnesses such as myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome and postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome have laid the groundwork for research in the field. In this Review, we explore the current literature and highlight key findings, the overlap with other conditions, the variable onset of symptoms, long COVID in children and the impact of vaccinations. Although these key findings are critical to understanding long COVID, current diagnostic and treatment options are insufficient, and clinical trials must be prioritized that address leading hypotheses. Additionally, to strengthen long COVID research, future studies must account for biases and SARS-CoV-2 testing issues, build on viral-onset research, be inclusive of marginalized populations and meaningfully engage patients throughout the research process.

Insights from a workplace SARS-CoV-2 specimen collection program, with genomes placed into global sequence phylogeny

In 2020, the Department of Energy established the National Virtual Biotechnology Laboratory (NVBL) to address key challenges associated with COVID-19. As part of that effort, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) established a capability to collect and analyze specimens from employees who self-reported symptoms consistent with the disease. During the spring and fall of 2021, 688 specimens were screened for SARS-CoV-2, with 64 (9.3%) testing positive using reverse-transcriptase quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR). Of these, 36 samples were released for research. All 36 positive samples released for research were sequenced and genotyped. Here, the relationship between patient age and viral load as measured by Ct values was measured and determined to be only weakly significant. Consensus sequences for each sample were placed into a global phylogeny and transmission dynamics were investigated, revealing that the closest relative for many samples was from outside of Washington state, indicating mixing of viral pools within geographic regions.

Evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in seronegative patients with long COVID

BACKGROUND

There is currently no consensus on the diagnosis, definition, symptoms, or duration of COVID-19 illness. The diagnostic complexity of Long COVID is compounded in many patients who were or might have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 but not tested during the acute illness and/or are SARS-CoV-2 antibody negative.

METHODS

Given the diagnostic conundrum of Long COVID, we set out to investigate SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses in patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and/or Long COVID from a cohort of mostly non-hospitalised patients.

FINDINGS

We discovered that IL-2 release (but not IFN-γ release) from T cells in response to SARS-CoV-2 peptides is both sensitive (75% +/-13%) and specific (88%+/-7%) for previous SARS-CoV-2 infection >6 months after a positive PCR test. We identified that 42-53% of patients with Long COVID, but without detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, nonetheless have detectable SARS-CoV-2 specific T cell responses.

INTERPRETATION

Our study reveals evidence (detectable T cell mediated IL-2 release) of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in seronegative patients with Long COVID.

FUNDING

This work was funded by the Addenbrooke's Charitable Trust (900276 to NS), NIHR award (G112259 to NS) and supported by the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. NJM is supported by the MRC (TSF MR/T032413/1) and NHSBT (WPA15-02). PJL is supported by the Wellcome Trust (PRF 210688/Z/18/Z, 084957/Z/08/Z), a Medical Research Council research grant MR/V011561/1 and the United Kingdom Research and a Innovation COVID Immunology Consortium grant (MR/V028448/1).

Waning of SARS-CoV-2 booster viral-load reduction effectiveness

The BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine has been shown to reduce viral load of breakthrough infections (BTIs), an important factor affecting infectiousness. This viral-load protective effect has been waning with time post the second vaccine and later restored with a booster shot. It is currently unclear though for how long this regained effectiveness lasts. Analyzing Ct values of SARS-CoV-2 qRT-PCR tests of over 22,000 infections during a Delta-variant-dominant period in Israel, we find that this viral-load reduction effectiveness significantly declines within months post the booster dose. Adjusting for age, sex and calendric date, Ct values of RdRp gene initially increases by 2.7 [CI: 2.3-3.0] relative to unvaccinated in the first month post the booster dose, yet then decays to a difference of 1.3 [CI: 0.7-1.9] in the second month and becomes small and insignificant in the third to fourth months. The rate and magnitude of this post-booster decline in viral-load reduction effectiveness mirror those observed post the second vaccine. These results suggest rapid waning of the booster’s effectiveness in reducing infectiousness, possibly affecting community-level spread of the virus.

The BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine has been shown to reduce viral load of breakthrough infections (BTIs). Here, analyzing viral loads of BTIs post third vaccine shot, Levine-Tiefenbrun et al. show waning of the booster’s effectiveness in reducing infectiousness within months, mirroring the rate and magnitude of decline observed post the second shot.