Fighting the COVID pandemic: National policy choices in non-pharmaceutical interventions

If you really love nothing. Evaluating second-order factors in the case of Italian constitutional referendum of 2020

The paper evaluates several second-order factors to explain the outcomes of the 2020 constitutional referendum held in Italy. This particular referendum serves as a relevant case study to assess the significance of second-order factors, given its unique characteristics, including the simplicity of the referendum question regarding the reduction in the number of parliamentarians (MPs), the minimal impact on public finances resulting from this reduction, and the subsequent decrease in territorial democratic representation. While it might have been expected that a significant majority would vote in favour of the "No" option, thus preserving the current levels of territorial coverage (and democratic representation) of MPs, the actual results saw a substantial majority in favour of the "Yes" vote (69%). Our argument posits that the overwhelming prevalence of the "Yes" vote (to reduce the number of MPs), especially in poorer areas of the country, can be attributed to specific factors that influence individual evaluations in a direct-democratic setting. In greater detail, by using cross-sectional data, the paper tests the role of socio-economic condition, trust in institutions and political participation in affecting the referendum outcome. The results of our empirical analysis confirm our hypotheses, demonstrating that second-order factors indeed influenced the referendum's outcome. Specifically, our analysis reveals that: (i) a higher socio-economic condition could generate a higher share of "No" votes; (ii) a higher trust in institutions could lead to an increase in the share of "No" votes; finally, that (iii) an increase in political participation could produce a decrease in the share of "No" votes. In the concluding section of the paper, we discuss how this analysis contributes new insights to the study of voting behaviour in direct-democratic contexts.

Unlocking the importance of perceived governance: The impact on COVID-19 in NUTS-2 European regions

In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, governments implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Previous literature suggests that NPI effectiveness is influenced by governance quality. The acceptance and perceived necessity of these measures by the public are crucial to their success, as NPIs cannot be easily enforced without public support. Does regional governance also play a role? This study examines the correlation between the quality of governance in European NUTS-2 regions and the spread of COVID-19. The findings indicate that overall perceived governance, and its perceived quality and corruption pillars, significantly impact the effectiveness of these interventions. This effect was pronounced during the first wave and then diminished in importance, disappearing before vaccines were available, suggesting that regional governance matters especially in the immediate aftermath of an exogenous shock.

Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain

A global disaster, such as the recent Covid-19 pandemic, affects every aspect of our lives and there is a need to investigate these highly complex phenomena if one aims to diminish their impact in the health of the population, as well as their socio-economic stability. In this paper we present an attempt to understand the role of the governmental authorities and the response of the rest of the population facing such emergencies. We present a mathematical model that takes into account the epidemiological features of the pandemic and also the actions of people responding to it, focusing only on three aspects of the system, namely, the fear of catching this serious disease, the impact on the economic activities and the compliance of the people to the mitigating measures adopted by the authorities. We apply the model to the specific case of Spain, since there are accurate data available about these three features. We focused on tourism as an example of the economic activity, since this sector of economy is one of the most likely to be affected by the restrictions imposed by the authorities, and because it represents an important part of Spanish economy. The results of numerical calculations agree with the empirical data in such a way that we can acquire a better insight of the different processes at play in such a complex situation, and also in other different circumstances.

On the determinants of anti-COVID restriction and anti-vaccine movements: the case of IoApro in Italy

Following restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19, and subsequent vaccination campaigns, sentiments against such policies were quick to arise. While individual-level determinants that led to such attitudes have drawn much attention, there are also reasons to believe that the macro context in which these movements arose may contribute to their evolution. In this study, exploiting data on business activities which supported a major Italian anti-restriction and anti-vaccine movement, IoApro, using quantitative analysis that employs both a fractional response probit and logit model and a beta regression model, we investigate the relationship between socio-economic characteristics, institutional quality, and the flourishing of this movement. Our results suggest a U-shaped relationship between income and the proliferation of the movement, meaning that support for these movements increases the greater the degree of economic decline. Our results further indicate that the share of the population between 40 and 60 years old is positively related to support for such movements, as is institutional corruption.

Governmental anti-pandemic policies, vaccination, population mobility, Twitter narratives, and the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the European Union countries

We provide large-scale empirical evidence on the effects of multiple governmental regulatory and health policies, vaccination, population mobility, and COVID-19-related Twitter narratives on the spread of a new coronavirus infection. Using multiple-level fixed effects panel data model with weekly data for 27 European Union countries in the period of March 2020-June 2021, we show that governmental response policies were effective both in reducing the number of COVID-19 infection cases and deaths from it, particularly, in the countries with higher level of rule of law. Vaccination expectedly helped to decrease the number of virus cases. Reductions in population mobility in public places and workplaces were also powerful in fighting the pandemic. Next, we identify four core pandemic-related Twitter narratives: governmental response policies, people's sad feelings during the pandemic, vaccination, and pandemic-related international politics. We find that sad feelings' narrative helped to combat the virus spread in EU countries. Our findings also reveal that while in countries with high rule of law international politics' narrative helped to reduce the virus spread, in countries with low rule of law the effect was strictly the opposite. The latter finding suggests that trust in politicians played an important role in confronting the pandemic.

Fear itself. Is fear a determinant of the efficacy oflockdowns?

Among non-pharmaceutical measures for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the most important is the implementation of lockdowns. The cost and effectiveness of this policy remains a much-debated topic in economics. In this study we investigate whether a 'fear effect' is at work in influencing the effectiveness of lockdowns. According to previous contributions on the topic, fear can increase protective habits, and for this reason we may imagine that a high number of COVID-19-caused deaths creates fear among the population, which may make people more likely to follow government prescriptions and observe lockdowns strictly. By means of a qualitative-quantitative analysis, we find that among the 46 countries that reported coronavirus-caused deaths before the implementation of a lockdown, the top quartile for per capita deaths has better results in terms of reducing new COVID-19 cases after a lockdown, compared to the worst quartile. This suggests that the number of reported deaths, as well as its communication to the population, are important determinants of the effectiveness of a lockdown.

In COVID We Trust: The Impact of The Pandemic on Religiousness-Evidence from Italian Regions

By changing many aspects of everyday life, the COVID-19 pandemic and the social distance policies implemented to face it have affected the behaviour of people all over the world. Has the pandemic also affected people's approach towards the divine? Previous evidence suggests that prayer searches on the Internet rose during the pandemic and that people tend to rely mainly on intrinsic rather than extrinsic religiousness to cope with adversity. In the present contribution, using a set of panel random effect estimators, we compare the change in religious attendance in Italian regions before and during the pandemic. Our results suggest that there has been an increase in religiousness during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings are robust to several specifications of the model and to different estimators. This suggests that people derive more comfort from religious activities during hard times that are characterized by uncertainty.

The effect of self-esteem on the spread of a pandemic. A cross-country analysis of the role played by self-esteem in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic

Extant research on COVID-19 suggests that many socio-economic determinants, by affecting personal behavior, have influenced the evolution of the pandemic. In this paper we study the role played in this regard by average levels of self-esteem in the public. There are reasons to believe that both low and very levels of self-esteem may have an effect on the spread of COVID-19, for opposite reasons. On the one hand, people with low self-esteem may not worry enough to behave in the way recommended (and prescribed, through non-pharmaceutical interventions) by the authorities; people with very high self-esteem, on the other hand, may be over-confident and fail to follow the prescriptions, believing that they do not need them. In this study we test this hypothesis by means of a quantitative cross-country analysis, using a hybrid model and the Rosenberg self-esteem scale. Our results suggest the existence of a U-shaped relationship between the trend of COVID-19 and average levels of self-esteem in a country.

Containment measures during the COVID pandemic: The role of non-pharmaceutical health policies

Many countries have imposed a set of non-pharmaceutical health policy interventions in an effort to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of the interventions, drawing on evidence from the OECD countries. A special feature here is the mechanism that underlies the impact of the containment policies. To this end, a causal mediation analysis decomposing the total effect into a direct and an indirect effect is conducted. The key finding is a dual cause-effect channel. On the one hand, there is a direct effect of the non-pharmaceutical interventions on the various health variables. Beyond this, a quantitatively dominant indirect impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions operating via voluntary changes in social distancing is shown.

Your vaccine attitude determines your altitude. What are the determinants of attitudes toward vaccination?

Attitudes toward vaccination are doubtless an important determinant of public health, and this became evident after the first year of the last COVID-19 pandemic. The issue, long-debated within European societies, especially with respect to occasional surges of diseases in given years, has become a crucial determinant of the wellbeing of a country since 2021. In this study, using microdata from a 2019 Eurobarometer survey, we frame and deepen our knowledge about the main determinants of vaccination attitudes as observed by the related literature. We argue that a positive attitude toward vaccination may be due to individualistic or altruistic reasons, or various incentives; our analysis aims to improve our knowledge about the determinants of such a complex decision. Our findings, obtained by means of a quantitative analysis that employs Ordered Probit, Ordered Logit and Generalized Ordered Logit estimations, provide complete support for some of the theories that have been debated in the literature, limited support for others because of mixed evidence, and no support for some.

Carrot and stick: Economic support and stringency policies in response to COVID-19

To address the economic losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have implemented, together with policies aimed at stopping the spread of the virus, a mixture of fiscal and monetary measures. This work investigates the effect of containment policies and economic support measures on economic growth in the short run, investigating a time window of six quarters in a cross country perspective. Our results confirm the existence of a negative effect of stringency measures on GDP; we also detect a positive effect from economic support measures. Moreover, looking at the interaction between these two kinds of interventions, our findings suggest that up to a relatively low level of stringency policies, economic support measures are able to positively counterbalance the negative impact of containment and closure policies. When the level of closures became more severe, however, the economic support measures that countries adopt are not able to completely recoup, in the short run, the economic losses due to stringency policies. Results suggest that in order to have a positive net effect, policymakers should take into account the level of stringency measures implemented before investing in economic support.

Back to school or … back to lockdown? The effects of opening schools on the diffusion of COVID-19 in Italian regions

The opening of schools that coincided with the beginning of fall 2020 and the arrival of the second wave of COVID-19 in continental Europe has fostered significant debate in several countries. Some contributions have suggested that youngsters play a minor role in the spread of the virus, given the specific characteristics of this infection; other scholars have raised concerns about the necessary movement that involves keeping schools open, and the consequent potential spread of the virus. In this study, we focus on the Italian case, an interesting setting in which to test the impact of opening schools on the spread of COVID-19, because of the different dates at which schools have opened in the various Italian provinces, and because of the different rates at which the virus has spread across Italy. Our results suggest that open schools have a positive impact on COVID-19 cases, whose spread occurs between 10 and 14 days after opening. While closing schools or using distance learning have other social and economic consequences, making it necessary for policymakers to adopt a holistic evaluation, it should be taken into account that open schools have an impact on the spread of the pandemic.