A hybrid multi-compartment model of granuloma formation and T cell priming in tuberculosis

Within-Host Mathematical Models of Antibiotic Resistance

Mathematical models have been used to study the spread of infectious diseases from person to person. More recently studies are developing within-host modeling which provides an understanding of how pathogens-bacteria, fungi, parasites, or viruses-develop, spread, and evolve inside a single individual and their interaction with the host's immune system.Such models have the potential to provide a more detailed and complete description of the pathogenesis of diseases within-host and identify other influencing factors that may not be detected otherwise. Mathematical models can be used to aid understanding of the global antibiotic resistance (ABR) crisis and identify new ways of combating this threat.ABR occurs when bacteria respond to random or selective pressures and adapt to new environments through the acquisition of new genetic traits. This is usually through the acquisition of a piece of DNA from other bacteria, a process called horizontal gene transfer (HGT), the modification of a piece of DNA within a bacterium, or through. Bacteria have evolved mechanisms that enable them to respond to environmental threats by mutation, and horizontal gene transfer (HGT): conjugation; transduction; and transformation. A frequent mechanism of HGT responsible for spreading antibiotic resistance on the global scale is conjugation, as it allows the direct transfer of mobile genetic elements (MGEs). Although there are several MGEs, the most important MGEs which promote the development and rapid spread of antimicrobial resistance genes in bacterial populations are plasmids and transposons. Each of the resistance-spread-mechanisms mentioned above can be modeled allowing us to understand the process better and to define strategies to reduce resistance.

Bifurcation analysis of a tuberculosis progression model for drug target identification

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The emergence and rapid spread of drug-resistant M. tuberculosis strains urge us to develop novel treatments. Experimental trials are constrained by laboratory capacity, insufficient funds, low number of laboratory animals and obsolete technology. Systems-level approaches to quantitatively study TB can overcome these limitations. Previously, we proposed a mathematical model describing the key regulatory mechanisms underlying the pathological progression of TB. Here, we systematically explore the effect of parameter variations on disease outcome. We find five bifurcation parameters that steer the clinical outcome of TB: number of bacteria phagocytosed per macrophage, macrophages death, macrophage killing by bacteria, macrophage recruitment, and phagocytosis of bacteria. The corresponding bifurcation diagrams show all-or-nothing dose-response curves with parameter regions mapping onto bacterial clearance, persistent infection, or history-dependent clearance or infection. Importantly, the pathogenic stage strongly affects the sensitivity of the host to these parameter variations. We identify parameter values corresponding to a latent-infection model of TB, where disease progression occurs significantly slower than in progressive TB. Two-dimensional bifurcation analyses uncovered synergistic parameter pairs that could act as efficient compound therapeutic approaches. Through bifurcation analysis, we reveal how modulation of specific regulatory mechanisms could steer the clinical outcome of TB.

Concomitant immunity to M. tuberculosis infection

Some persistent infections provide a level of immunity that protects against reinfection with the same pathogen, a process referred to as concomitant immunity. To explore the phenomenon of concomitant immunity during Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, we utilized HostSim, a previously published virtual host model of the immune response following Mtb infection. By simulating reinfection scenarios and comparing with data from non-human primate studies, we propose a hypothesis that the durability of a concomitant immune response against Mtb is intrinsically tied to levels of tissue resident memory T cells (Trms) during primary infection, with a secondary but important role for circulating Mtb-specific T cells. Further, we compare HostSim reinfection experiments to observational TB studies from the pre-antibiotic era to predict that the upper bound of the lifespan of resident memory T cells in human lung tissue is likely 2-3 years. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first estimate of resident memory T-cell lifespan in humans. Our findings are a first step towards demonstrating the important role of Trms in preventing disease and suggest that the induction of lung Trms is likely critical for vaccine success.

A global method for fast simulations of molecular dynamics in multiscale agent-based models of biological tissues

Agent-based models (ABMs) are a natural platform for capturing the multiple time and spatial scales in biological processes. However, these models are computationally expensive, especially when including molecular-level effects. The traditional approach to simulating this type of multiscale ABM is to solve a system of ordinary differential equations for the molecular events per cell. This significantly adds to the computational cost of simulations as the number of agents grows, which contributes to many ABMs being limited to around10 5 cells. We propose an approach that requires the same computational time independent of the number of agents. This speeds up the entire simulation by orders of magnitude, allowing for more thorough explorations of ABMs with even larger numbers of agents. We use two systems to show that the new method strongly agrees with the traditionally used approach. This computational strategy can be applied to a wide range of biological investigations.

Building digital twins of the human immune system: toward a roadmap

Digital twins, customized simulation models pioneered in industry, are beginning to be deployed in medicine and healthcare, with some major successes, for instance in cardiovascular diagnostics and in insulin pump control. Personalized computational models are also assisting in applications ranging from drug development to treatment optimization. More advanced medical digital twins will be essential to making precision medicine a reality. Because the immune system plays an important role in such a wide range of diseases and health conditions, from fighting pathogens to autoimmune disorders, digital twins of the immune system will have an especially high impact. However, their development presents major challenges, stemming from the inherent complexity of the immune system and the difficulty of measuring many aspects of a patient’s immune state in vivo. This perspective outlines a roadmap for meeting these challenges and building a prototype of an immune digital twin. It is structured as a four-stage process that proceeds from a specification of a concrete use case to model constructions, personalization, and continued improvement.

T cell transcription factor expression evolves over time in granulomas from Mycobacterium tuberculosis-infected cynomolgus macaques

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), is a global health concern, yearly resulting in 10 million new cases of active TB. Immunologic investigation of lung granulomas is essential for understanding host control of bacterial replication. Here, we identify and compare the pathological, cellular, and functional differences in granulomas at 4, 12, and 20 weeks post-infection in Chinese cynomolgus macaques. Original granulomas differ in transcription-factor expression within adaptive lymphocytes, with those at 12 weeks showing higher frequencies of CD8⁺T-bet⁺ T cells, while CD4⁺T-bet⁺ T cells increase at 20 weeks post-infection. The appearance of T-bet⁺ adaptive T cells at 12 and 20 weeks is coincident with a reduction in bacterial burden, suggesting their critical role in Mtb control. This study highlights the evolution of T cell responses within lung granulomas, suggesting that vaccines promoting the development and migration of T-bet⁺ T cells would enhance mycobacterial control.

Grant et al. investigate the pathological, cellular, and functional differences in TB lung granulomas from macaques. The data reveal that most T cells at early time points have low frequencies of transcription factor expression, while T cells at later time points have increased expression of T-bet and a reduction in bacterial burden.

Micro-Computed Tomography Analysis of the Human Tuberculous Lung Reveals Remarkable Heterogeneity in Three-dimensional Granuloma Morphology

Rationale: Our current understanding of tuberculosis (TB) pathophysiology is limited by a reliance on animal models, the paucity of human TB lung tissue, and traditional histopathological analysis, a destructive two-dimensional approach that provides limited spatial insight. Determining the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the necrotic granuloma, a characteristic feature of TB, will more accurately inform preventive TB strategies.Objectives: To ascertain the 3D shape of the human tuberculous granuloma and its spatial relationship with airways and vasculature within large lung tissues.Methods: We characterized the 3D microanatomical environment of human tuberculous lungs by using micro computed tomography, histopathology, and immunohistochemistry. By using 3D segmentation software, we accurately reconstructed TB granulomas, vasculature, and airways in three dimensions and confirmed our findings by using histopathology and immunohistochemistry.Measurements and Main Results: We observed marked heterogeneity in the morphology, volume, and number of TB granulomas in human lung sections. Unlike depictions of granulomas as simple spherical structures, human necrotic granulomas exhibit complex, cylindrical, branched morphologies that are connected to the airways and shaped by the bronchi. The use of 3D imaging of human TB lung sections provides unanticipated insight into the spatial organization of TB granulomas in relation to the airways and vasculature.Conclusions: Our findings highlight the likelihood that a single, structurally complex lesion could be mistakenly viewed as multiple independent lesions when evaluated in two dimensions. In addition, the lack of vascularization within obstructed bronchi establishes a paradigm for antimycobacterial drug tolerance. Lastly, our results suggest that bronchogenic spread of Mycobacterium tuberculosis reseeds the lung.

A multi-approach and multi-scale platform to model CD4+ T cells responding to infections

Immune responses rely on a complex adaptive system in which the body and infections interact at multiple scales and in different compartments. We developed a modular model of CD4+ T cells, which uses four modeling approaches to integrate processes at three spatial scales in different tissues. In each cell, signal transduction and gene regulation are described by a logical model, metabolism by constraint-based models. Cell population dynamics are described by an agent-based model and systemic cytokine concentrations by ordinary differential equations. A Monte Carlo simulation algorithm allows information to flow efficiently between the four modules by separating the time scales. Such modularity improves computational performance and versatility and facilitates data integration. We validated our technology by reproducing known experimental results, including differentiation patterns of CD4+ T cells triggered by different combinations of cytokines, metabolic regulation by IL2 in these cells, and their response to influenza infection. In doing so, we added multi-scale insights to single-scale studies and demonstrated its predictive power by discovering switch-like and oscillatory behaviors of CD4+ T cells that arise from nonlinear dynamics interwoven across three scales. We identified the inflamed lymph node’s ability to retain naive CD4+ T cells as a key mechanism in generating these emergent behaviors. We envision our model and the generic framework encompassing it to serve as a tool for understanding cellular and molecular immunological problems through the lens of systems immunology.

CD4+ T cells are a key part of the adaptive immune system. They differentiate into different phenotypes to carry out different functions. They do so by secreting molecules called cytokines to regulate other immune cells. Multi-scale modeling can potentially explain their emergent behaviors by integrating biological phenomena occurring at different spatial (intracellular, cellular, and systemic), temporal, and organizational scales (signal transduction, gene regulation, metabolism, cellular behaviors, and cytokine transport). We built a computational platform by combining disparate modeling frameworks (compartmental ordinary differential equations, agent-based modeling, Boolean network modeling, and constraint-based modeling). We validated the platform’s ability to predict CD4+ T cells’ emergent behaviors by reproducing their differentiation patterns, metabolic regulation, and population dynamics in response to influenza infection. We then used it to predict and explain novel switch-like and oscillatory behaviors for CD4+ T cells. On the basis of these results, we believe that our multi-approach and multi-scale platform will be a valuable addition to the systems immunology toolkit. In addition to its immediate relevance to CD4+ T cells, it also has the potential to become the foundation of a virtual immune system.

To Sobol or not to Sobol? The effects of sampling schemes in systems biology applications

Computational and mathematical models in biology rely heavily on the parameters that characterize them. However, robust estimates for their values are typically elusive and thus a large parameter space becomes necessary for model study, particularly to make translationally impactful predictions. Sampling schemes exploring parameter spaces for models are used for a variety of purposes in systems biology, including model calibration and sensitivity analysis. Typically, random sampling is used; however, when models have a high number of unknown parameters or the models are highly complex, computational cost becomes an important factor. This issue can be reduced through the use of efficient sampling schemes such as Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and Sobol sequences. In this work, we compare and contrast three sampling schemes - random sampling, LHS, and Sobol sequences - for the purposes of performing both parameter sensitivity analysis and model calibration. In addition, we apply these analyses to different types of computational and mathematical models of varying complexity: a simple ODE model, a complex ODE model, and an agent-based model. In general, the sampling scheme had little effect when used for calibration efforts, but when applied to sensitivity analyses, Sobol sequences exhibited faster convergence. While the observed benefit to convergence is relatively small, Sobol sequences are computationally less expensive to compute than LHS samples and also have the benefit of being deterministic, which allows for better reproducibility of results.

Spatial Organization and Recruitment of Non-Specific T Cells May Limit T Cell-Macrophage Interactions Within Mycobacterium tuberculosis Granulomas

Tuberculosis (TB) is a worldwide health problem; successful interventions such as vaccines and treatment require a 2better understanding of the immune response to infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). In many infectious diseases, pathogen-specific T cells that are recruited to infection sites are highly responsive and clear infection. Yet in the case of infection with Mtb, most individuals are unable to clear infection leading to either an asymptomatically controlled latent infection (the majority) or active disease (roughly 5%-10% of infections). The hallmark of Mtb infection is the recruitment of immune cells to lungs leading to development of multiple lung granulomas. Non-human primate models of TB indicate that on average <10% of T cells within granulomas are Mtb-responsive in terms of cytokine production. The reason for this reduced responsiveness is unknown and it may be at the core of why humans typically are unable to clear Mtb infection. There are a number of hypotheses as to why this reduced responsiveness may occur, including T cell exhaustion, direct downregulation of antigen presentation by Mtb within infected macrophages, the spatial organization of the granuloma itself, and/or recruitment of non-Mtb-specific T cells to lungs. We use a systems biology approach pairing data and modeling to dissect three of these hypotheses. We find that the structural organization of granulomas as well as recruitment of non-specific T cells likely contribute to reduced responsiveness.

Modelling the effects of environmental heterogeneity within the lung on the tuberculosis life-cycle

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In silico model of TB in the lung incorporating environmental heterogeneity.

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Preferential conditions at the apex of lung localise post-primary disease there.

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Analysis of the key influences driving disease at different regions of the lung.

Progress in shortening the duration of tuberculosis (TB) treatment is hampered by the lack of a predictive model that accurately reflects the diverse environment within the lung. This is important as TB has been shown to produce distinct localisations to different areas of the lung during different disease stages, with the environmental heterogeneity within the lung of factors such as air ventilation, blood perfusion and oxygen tension believed to contribute to the apical localisation witnessed during the post-primary form of the disease.

Building upon our previous model of environmental lung heterogeneity, we present a networked metapopulation model that simulates TB across the whole lung, incorporating these notions of environmental heterogeneity across the whole TB life-cycle to show how different stages of the disease are influenced by different environmental and immunological factors. The alveolar tissue in the lung is divided into distinct patches, with each patch representing a portion of the total tissue and containing environmental attributes that reflect the internal conditions at that location. We include populations of bacteria and immune cells in various states, and events are included which determine how the members of the model interact with each other and the environment. By allowing some of these events to be dependent on environmental attributes, we create a set of heterogeneous dynamics, whereby the location of the tissue within the lung determines the disease pathological events that occur there.

Our results show that the environmental heterogeneity within the lung is a plausible driving force behind the apical localisation during post-primary disease. After initial infection, bacterial levels will grow in the initial infection location at the base of the lung until an adaptive immune response is initiated. During this period, bacteria are able to disseminate and create new lesions throughout the lung. During the latent stage, the lesions that are situated towards the apex are the largest in size, and once a post-primary immune-suppressing event occurs, it is the uppermost lesions that reach the highest levels of bacterial proliferation. Our sensitivity analysis also shows that it is the differential in blood perfusion, causing reduced immune activity towards the apex, which has the biggest influence of disease outputs.

Development of New Tuberculosis Drugs: Translation to Regimen Composition for Drug-Sensitive and Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) kills more people than any other infectious disease. Challenges for developing better treatments include the complex pathology due to within-host immune dynamics, interpatient variability in disease severity and drug pharmacokinetics-pharmacodynamics (PK-PD), and the growing emergence of resistance. Model-informed drug development using quantitative and translational pharmacology has become increasingly recognized as a method capable of drug prioritization and regimen optimization to efficiently progress compounds through TB drug development phases. In this review, we examine translational models and tools, including plasma PK scaling, site-of-disease lesion PK, host-immune and bacteria interplay, combination PK-PD models of multidrug regimens, resistance formation, and integration of data across nonclinical and clinical phases.We propose a workflow that integrates these tools with computational platforms to identify drug combinations that have the potential to accelerate sterilization, reduce relapse rates, and limit the emergence of resistance.

Mechanistic Modeling of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Murine Models for Drug and Vaccine Efficacy Studies

Tuberculosis (TB) drug, regimen, and vaccine development rely heavily on preclinical animal experiments, and quantification of bacterial and immune response dynamics is essential for understanding drug and vaccine efficacy. A mechanism-based model was built to describe Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Rv infection over time in BALB/c and athymic nude mice, which consisted of bacterial replication, bacterial death, and adaptive immune effects. The adaptive immune effect was best described by a sigmoidal function on both bacterial load and incubation time. Applications to demonstrate the utility of this baseline model showed (i) the important influence of the adaptive immune response on pyrazinamide (PZA) drug efficacy, (ii) a persistent adaptive immune effect in mice relapsing after chemotherapy cessation, and (iii) the protective effect of vaccines after M. tuberculosis challenge. These findings demonstrate the utility of our model for describing M. tuberculosis infection and corresponding adaptive immune dynamics for evaluating the efficacy of TB drugs, regimens, and vaccines.

High-resolution computational modeling of immune responses in the gut

Background

Helicobacter pylori causes gastric cancer in 1–2% of cases but is also beneficial for protection against allergies and gastroesophageal diseases. An estimated 85% of H. pylori–colonized individuals experience no detrimental effects. To study the mechanisms promoting host tolerance to the bacterium in the gastrointestinal mucosa and systemic regulatory effects, we investigated the dynamics of immunoregulatory mechanisms triggered by H. pylori using a high-performance computing–driven ENteric Immunity SImulator multiscale model. Immune responses were simulated by integrating an agent-based model, ordinary, and partial differential equations.

Results

The outputs were analyzed using 2 sequential stages: the first used a partial rank correlation coefficient regression–based and the second a metamodel-based global sensitivity analysis. The influential parameters screened from the first stage were selected to be varied for the second stage. The outputs from both stages were combined as a training dataset to build a spatiotemporal metamodel. The Sobol indices measured time-varying impact of input parameters during initiation, peak, and chronic phases of infection. The study identified epithelial cell proliferation and epithelial cell death as key parameters that control infection outcomes. In silico validation showed that colonization with H. pylori decreased with a decrease in epithelial cell proliferation, which was linked to regulatory macrophages and tolerogenic dendritic cells.

Conclusions

The hybrid model of H. pylori infection identified epithelial cell proliferation as a key factor for successful colonization of the gastric niche and highlighted the role of tolerogenic dendritic cells and regulatory macrophages in modulating the host responses and shaping infection outcomes.

IL-10 Impairs Local Immune Response in Lung Granulomas and Lymph Nodes during Early Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, continues to be a major global health problem. Lung granulomas are organized structures of host immune cells that function to contain the bacteria. Cytokine expression is a critical component of the protective immune response, but inappropriate cytokine expression can exacerbate TB. Although the importance of proinflammatory cytokines in controlling M. tuberculosis infection has been established, the effects of anti-inflammatory cytokines, such as IL-10, in TB are less well understood. To investigate the role of IL-10, we used an Ab to neutralize IL-10 in cynomolgus macaques during M. tuberculosis infection. Anti-IL-10-treated nonhuman primates had similar overall disease outcomes compared with untreated control nonhuman primates, but there were immunological changes in granulomas and lymph nodes from anti-IL-10-treated animals. There was less thoracic inflammation and increased cytokine production in lung granulomas and lymph nodes from IL-10-neutralized animals at 3-4 wk postinfection compared with control animals. At 8 wk postinfection, lung granulomas from IL-10-neutralized animals had reduced cytokine production but increased fibrosis relative to control animals. Although these immunological changes did not affect the overall disease burden during the first 8 wk of infection, we paired computational modeling to explore late infection dynamics. Our findings support that early changes occurring in the absence of IL-10 may lead to better bacterial control later during infection. These unique datasets provide insight into the contribution of IL-10 to the immunological balance necessary for granulomas to control bacterial burden and disease pathology in M. tuberculosis infection.

Agent-based models of inflammation in translational systems biology: A decade later

Agent-based modeling is a rule-based, discrete-event, and spatially explicit computational modeling method that employs computational objects that instantiate the rules and interactions among the individual components ("agents") of system. Agent-based modeling is well suited to translating into a computational model the knowledge generated from basic science research, particularly with respect to translating across scales the mechanisms of cellular behavior into aggregated cell population dynamics manifesting at the tissue and organ level. This capacity has made agent-based modeling an integral method in translational systems biology (TSB), an approach that uses multiscale dynamic computational modeling to explicitly represent disease processes in a clinically relevant fashion. The initial work in the early 2000s using agent-based models (ABMs) in TSB focused on examining acute inflammation and its intersection with wound healing; the decade since has seen vast growth in both the application of agent-based modeling to a wide array of disease processes as well as methodological advancements in the use and analysis of ABM. This report presents an update on an earlier review of ABMs in TSB and presents examples of exciting progress in the modeling of various organs and diseases that involve inflammation. This review also describes developments that integrate the use of ABMs with cutting-edge technologies such as high-performance computing, machine learning, and artificial intelligence, with a view toward the future integration of these methodologies. This article is categorized under: Translational, Genomic, and Systems Medicine > Translational Medicine Models of Systems Properties and Processes > Mechanistic Models Models of Systems Properties and Processes > Organ, Tissue, and Physiological Models Models of Systems Properties and Processes > Organismal Models.

Review of the systems biology of the immune system using agent-based models

The immune system is an inherent protection system in vertebrate animals including human beings that exhibit properties such as self-organisation, self-adaptation, learning, and recognition. It interacts with the other allied systems such as the gut and lymph nodes. There is a need for immune system modelling to know about its complex internal mechanism, to understand how it maintains the homoeostasis, and how it interacts with the other systems. There are two types of modelling techniques used for the simulation of features of the immune system: equation-based modelling (EBM) and agent-based modelling. Owing to certain shortcomings of the EBM, agent-based modelling techniques are being widely used. This technique provides various predictions for disease causes and treatments; it also helps in hypothesis verification. This study presents a review of agent-based modelling of the immune system and its interactions with the gut and lymph nodes. The authors also review the modelling of immune system interactions during tuberculosis and cancer. In addition, they also outline the future research directions for the immune system simulation through agent-based techniques such as the effects of stress on the immune system, evolution of the immune system, and identification of the parameters for a healthy immune system.

Multiscale Agent-Based and Hybrid Modeling of the Tumor Immune Microenvironment

Multiscale systems biology and systems pharmacology are powerful methodologies that are playing increasingly important roles in understanding the fundamental mechanisms of biological phenomena and in clinical applications. In this review, we summarize the state of the art in the applications of agent-based models (ABM) and hybrid modeling to the tumor immune microenvironment and cancer immune response, including immunotherapy. Heterogeneity is a hallmark of cancer; tumor heterogeneity at the molecular, cellular, and tissue scales is a major determinant of metastasis, drug resistance, and low response rate to molecular targeted therapies and immunotherapies. Agent-based modeling is an effective methodology to obtain and understand quantitative characteristics of these processes and to propose clinical solutions aimed at overcoming the current obstacles in cancer treatment. We review models focusing on intra-tumor heterogeneity, particularly on interactions between cancer cells and stromal cells, including immune cells, the role of tumor-associated vasculature in the immune response, immune-related tumor mechanobiology, and cancer immunotherapy. We discuss the role of digital pathology in parameterizing and validating spatial computational models and potential applications to therapeutics.

The Role of Dimensionality in Understanding Granuloma Formation

Within the first 2-3 months of a Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection, 2-4 mm spherical structures called granulomas develop in the lungs of the infected hosts. These are the hallmark of tuberculosis (TB) infection in humans and non-human primates. A cascade of immunological events occurs in the first 3 months of granuloma formation that likely shapes the outcome of the infection. Understanding the main mechanisms driving granuloma development and function is key to generating treatments and vaccines. In vitro, in vivo, and in silico studies have been performed in the past decades to address the complexity of granuloma dynamics. This study builds on our previous 2D spatio-temporal hybrid computational model of granuloma formation in TB (GranSim) and presents for the first time a more realistic 3D implementation. We use uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques to calibrate the new 3D resolution to non-human primate (NHP) experimental data on bacterial levels per granuloma during the first 100 days post infection. Due to the large computational cost associated with running a 3D agent-based model, our major goal is to assess to what extent 2D and 3D simulations differ in predictions for TB granulomas and what can be learned in the context of 3D that is missed in 2D. Our findings suggest that in terms of major mechanisms driving bacterial burden, 2D and 3D models return very similar results. For example, Mtb growth rates and molecular regulation mechanisms are very important both in 2D and 3D, as are cellular movement and modulation of cell recruitment. The main difference we found was that the 3D model is less affected by crowding when cellular recruitment and movement of cells are increased. Overall, we conclude that the use of a 2D resolution in GranSim is warranted when large scale pilot runs are to be performed and if the goal is to determine major mechanisms driving infection outcome (e.g., bacterial load). To comprehensively compare the roles of model dimensionality, further tests and experimental data will be needed to expand our conclusions to molecular scale dynamics and multi-scale resolutions.

Dynamic balance of pro- and anti-inflammatory signals controls disease and limits pathology

Immune responses to pathogens are complex and not well understood in many diseases, and this is especially true for infections by persistent pathogens. One mechanism that allows for long-term control of infection while also preventing an over-zealous inflammatory response from causing extensive tissue damage is for the immune system to balance pro- and anti-inflammatory cells and signals. This balance is dynamic and the immune system responds to cues from both host and pathogen, maintaining a steady state across multiple scales through continuous feedback. Identifying the signals, cells, cytokines, and other immune response factors that mediate this balance over time has been difficult using traditional research strategies. Computational modeling studies based on data from traditional systems can identify how this balance contributes to immunity. Here we provide evidence from both experimental and mathematical/computational studies to support the concept of a dynamic balance operating during persistent and other infection scenarios. We focus mainly on tuberculosis, currently the leading cause of death due to infectious disease in the world, and also provide evidence for other infections. A better understanding of the dynamically balanced immune response can help shape treatment strategies that utilize both drugs and host-directed therapies.

Modelling the effects of bacterial cell state and spatial location on tuberculosis treatment: Insights from a hybrid multiscale cellular automaton model

If improvements are to be made in tuberculosis (TB) treatment, an increased understanding of disease in the lung is needed. Studies have shown that bacteria in a less metabolically active state, associated with the presence of lipid bodies, are less susceptible to antibiotics, and recent results have highlighted the disparity in concentration of different compounds into lesions. Treatment success therefore depends critically on the responses of the individual bacteria that constitute the infection. We propose a hybrid, individual-based approach that analyses spatio-temporal dynamics at the cellular level, linking the behaviour of individual bacteria and host cells with the macroscopic behaviour of the microenvironment. The individual elements (bacteria, macrophages and T cells) are modelled using cellular automaton (CA) rules, and the evolution of oxygen, drugs and chemokine dynamics are incorporated in order to study the effects of the microenvironment in the pathological lesion. We allow bacteria to switch states depending on oxygen concentration, which affects how they respond to treatment. This is the first multiscale model of its type to consider both oxygen-driven phenotypic switching of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis and antibiotic treatment. Using this model, we investigate the role of bacterial cell state and of initial bacterial location on treatment outcome. We demonstrate that when bacteria are located further away from blood vessels, less favourable outcomes are more likely, i.e. longer time before infection is contained/cleared, treatment failure or later relapse. We also show that in cases where bacteria remain at the end of simulations, the organisms tend to be slower-growing and are often located within granulomas, surrounded by caseous material.

Regulation of Three Virulence Strategies of Mycobacterium tuberculosis: A Success Story

Tuberculosis remains one of the deadliest diseases. Emergence of drug-resistant and multidrug-resistant M. tuberculosis strains makes treating tuberculosis increasingly challenging. In order to develop novel intervention strategies, detailed understanding of the molecular mechanisms behind the success of this pathogen is required. Here, we review recent literature to provide a systems level overview of the molecular and cellular components involved in divalent metal homeostasis and their role in regulating the three main virulence strategies of M. tuberculosis: immune modulation, dormancy and phagosomal rupture. We provide a visual and modular overview of these components and their regulation. Our analysis identified a single regulatory cascade for these three virulence strategies that respond to limited availability of divalent metals in the phagosome.

Deletion of TGF-β1 Increases Bacterial Clearance by Cytotoxic T Cells in a Tuberculosis Granuloma Model

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is the pathogenic bacterium that causes tuberculosis (TB), one of the most lethal infectious diseases in the world. The only vaccine against TB is minimally protective, and multi-drug resistant TB necessitates new therapeutics to treat infection. Developing new therapies requires a better understanding of the complex host immune response to infection, including dissecting the processes leading to formation of granulomas, the dense cellular lesions associated with TB. In this work, we pair experimental and computational modeling studies to explore cytokine regulation in the context of TB. We use our next-generation hybrid multi-scale model of granuloma formation (GranSim) to capture molecular, cellular, and tissue scale dynamics of granuloma formation. We identify TGF-β1 as a major inhibitor of cytotoxic T-cell effector function in granulomas. Deletion of TGF-β1 from the system results in improved bacterial clearance and lesion sterilization. We also identify a novel dichotomous regulation of cytotoxic T cells and macrophages by TGF-β1 and IL-10, respectively. These findings suggest that increasing cytotoxic T-cell effector functions may increase bacterial clearance in granulomas and highlight potential new therapeutic targets for treating TB.

Multidimensional Analysis Integrating Human T-Cell Signatures in Lymphatic Tissues with Sex of Humanized Mice for Prediction of Responses after Dendritic Cell Immunization

Mice transplanted with human cord blood-derived hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) became a powerful experimental tool for studying the heterogeneity of human immune reconstitution and immune responses in vivo. Yet, analyses of human T cell maturation in humanized models have been hampered by an overall low immune reactivity and lack of methods to define predictive markers of responsiveness. Long-lived human lentiviral induced dendritic cells expressing the cytomegalovirus pp65 protein (iDCpp65) promoted the development of pp65-specific human CD8⁺ T cell responses in NOD.Cg-Rag1^tm1Mom-Il2rγ^tm1Wj humanized mice through the presentation of immune-dominant antigenic epitopes (signal 1), expression of co-stimulatory molecules (signal 2), and inflammatory cytokines (signal 3). We exploited this validated system to evaluate the effects of mouse sex in the dynamics of T cell homing and maturation status in thymus, blood, bone marrow, spleen, and lymph nodes. Statistical analyses of cell relative frequencies and absolute numbers demonstrated higher CD8⁺ memory T cell reactivity in spleen and lymph nodes of immunized female mice. In order to understand to which extent the multidimensional relation between organ-specific markers predicted the immunization status, the immunophenotypic profiles of individual mice were used to train an artificial neural network designed to discriminate immunized and non-immunized mice. The highest accuracy of immune reactivity prediction could be obtained from lymph node markers of female mice (77.3%). Principal component analyses further identified clusters of markers best suited to describe the heterogeneity of immunization responses in vivo. A correlation analysis of these markers reflected a tissue-specific impact of immunization. This allowed for an organ-resolved characterization of the immunization status of individual mice based on the identified set of markers. This new modality of multidimensional analyses can be used as a framework for defining minimal but predictive signatures of human immune responses in mice and suggests critical markers to characterize responses to immunization after HSC transplantation.

Innate Immune Responses to Tuberculosis

Tuberculosis remains one of the greatest threats to human health. The causative bacterium, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, is acquired by the respiratory route. It is exquisitely adapted to humans and is a prototypic intracellular pathogen of macrophages, with alveolar macrophages being the primary conduit of infection and disease. However, M. tuberculosis bacilli interact with and are affected by several soluble and cellular components of the innate immune system which dictate the outcome of primary infection, most commonly a latently infected healthy human host, in whom the bacteria are held in check by the host immune response within the confines of tissue granuloma, the host histopathologic hallmark. Such individuals can develop active TB later in life with impairment in the immune system. In contrast, in a minority of infected individuals, the early host immune response fails to control bacterial growth, and progressive granulomatous disease develops, facilitating spread of the bacilli via infectious aerosols. The molecular details of the M. tuberculosis-host innate immune system interaction continue to be elucidated, particularly those occurring within the lung. However, it is clear that a number of complex processes are involved at the different stages of infection that may benefit either the bacterium or the host. In this article, we describe a contemporary view of the molecular events underlying the interaction between M. tuberculosis and a variety of cellular and soluble components and processes of the innate immune system.

Identifying mechanisms driving formation of granuloma-associated fibrosis during Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), is a pulmonary pathogen of major global concern. A key feature of Mtb infection in primates is the formation of granulomas, dense cellular structures surrounding infected lung tissue. These structures serve as the main site of host-pathogen interaction in TB, and thus to effectively treat TB we must clarify mechanisms of granuloma formation and their function in disease. Fibrotic granulomas are associated with both good and bad disease outcomes. Fibrosis can serve to isolate infected tissue from healthy tissue, but it can also cause difficulty breathing as it leaves scars. Little is known about fibrosis in TB, and data from non-human primates is just beginning to clarify the picture. This work focuses on constructing a hybrid multi-scale model of fibrotic granuloma formation, in order to identify mechanisms driving development of fibrosis in Mtb infected lungs. We combine dynamics of molecular, cellular, and tissue scale models from previously published studies to characterize the formation of two common sub-types of fibrotic granulomas: peripherally fibrotic, with a cuff of collagen surrounding granulomas, and centrally fibrotic, with collagen throughout granulomas. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, along with large simulation sets, enable us to identify mechanisms differentiating centrally versus peripherally fibrotic granulomas. These findings suggest that heterogeneous cytokine environments exist within granulomas and may be responsible for driving tissue scale morphologies. Using this model we are primed to better understand the complex structure of granulomas, a necessity for developing successful treatments for TB.

A review of computational and mathematical modeling contributions to our understanding of Mycobacterium tuberculosis within-host infection and treatment

Tuberculosis (TB) is an ancient and deadly disease characterized by complex host-pathogen dynamics playing out over multiple time and length scales and physiological compartments. Computational modeling can be used to integrate various types of experimental data and suggest new hypotheses, mechanisms, and therapeutic approaches to TB. Here, we offer a first-time comprehensive review of work on within-host TB models that describe the immune response of the host to infection, including the formation of lung granulomas. The models include systems of ordinary and partial differential equations and agent-based models as well as hybrid and multi-scale models that are combinations of these. Many aspects of M. tuberculosis infection, including host dynamics in the lung (typical site of infection for TB), granuloma formation, roles of cytokine and chemokine dynamics, and bacterial nutrient availability have been explored. Finally, we survey applications of these within-host models to TB therapy and prevention and suggest future directions to impact this global disease.

A Multi-Compartment Hybrid Computational Model Predicts Key Roles for Dendritic Cells in Tuberculosis Infection

Tuberculosis (TB) is a world-wide health problem with approximately 2 billion people infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb, the causative bacterium of TB). The pathologic hallmark of Mtb infection in humans and Non-Human Primates (NHPs) is the formation of spherical structures, primarily in lungs, called granulomas. Infection occurs after inhalation of bacteria into lungs, where resident antigen-presenting cells (APCs), take up bacteria and initiate the immune response to Mtb infection. APCs traffic from the site of infection (lung) to lung-draining lymph nodes (LNs) where they prime T cells to recognize Mtb. These T cells, circulating back through blood, migrate back to lungs to perform their immune effector functions. We have previously developed a hybrid agent-based model (ABM, labeled GranSim) describing in silico immune cell, bacterial (Mtb) and molecular behaviors during tuberculosis infection and recently linked that model to operate across three physiological compartments: lung (infection site where granulomas form), lung draining lymph node (LN, site of generation of adaptive immunity) and blood (a measurable compartment). Granuloma formation and function is captured by a spatio-temporal model (i.e., ABM), while LN and blood compartments represent temporal dynamics of the whole body in response to infection and are captured with ordinary differential equations (ODEs). In order to have a more mechanistic representation of APC trafficking from the lung to the lymph node, and to better capture antigen presentation in a draining LN, this current study incorporates the role of dendritic cells (DCs) in a computational fashion into GranSim.

Understanding the pathophysiology of the human TB lung granuloma using in vitro granuloma models

Tuberculosis remains a major human health threat that infects one in three individuals worldwide. Infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a standoff between host and bacteria in the formation of a granuloma. This review will introduce a variety of bacterial and host factors that impact individual granuloma fates. The authors describe advances in the development of in vitro granuloma models, current evidence surrounding infection and granuloma development, and the applicability of existing in vitro models in the study of human disease. In vitro models of infection help improve our understanding of pathophysiology and allow for the discovery of other potential models of study.

The wisdom of crowds in action: Forecasting epidemic diseases with a web-based prediction market system

BACKGROUND

The quest for an effective system capable of monitoring and predicting the trends of epidemic diseases is a critical issue for communities worldwide. With the prevalence of Internet access, more and more researchers today are using data from both search engines and social media to improve the prediction accuracy. In particular, a prediction market system (PMS) exploits the wisdom of crowds on the Internet to effectively accomplish relatively high accuracy.

OBJECTIVE

This study presents the architecture of a PMS and demonstrates the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules. The system was implemented to predict infectious diseases in Taiwan with the wisdom of crowds in order to improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting.

METHODS

The PMS architecture contains three design components: database clusters, market engine, and Web applications. The system accumulated knowledge from 126 health professionals for 31 weeks to predict five disease indicators: the confirmed cases of dengue fever, the confirmed cases of severe and complicated influenza, the rate of enterovirus infections, the rate of influenza-like illnesses, and the confirmed cases of severe and complicated enterovirus infection.

RESULTS

Based on the winning ratio, the PMS predicts the trends of three out of five disease indicators more accurately than does the existing system that uses the five-year average values of historical data for the same weeks. In addition, the PMS with the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules is easy to understand for health professionals and applicable to predict all the five disease indicators.

CONCLUSIONS

The PMS architecture of this study affords organizations and individuals to implement it for various purposes in our society. The system can continuously update the data and improve prediction accuracy in monitoring and forecasting the trends of epidemic diseases. Future researchers could replicate and apply the PMS demonstrated in this study to more infectious diseases and wider geographical areas, especially the under-developed countries across Asia and Africa.

Computational and Empirical Studies Predict Mycobacterium tuberculosis-Specific T Cells as a Biomarker for Infection Outcome

Identifying biomarkers for tuberculosis (TB) is an ongoing challenge in developing immunological correlates of infection outcome and protection. Biomarker discovery is also necessary for aiding design and testing of new treatments and vaccines. To effectively predict biomarkers for infection progression in any disease, including TB, large amounts of experimental data are required to reach statistical power and make accurate predictions. We took a two-pronged approach using both experimental and computational modeling to address this problem. We first collected 200 blood samples over a 2- year period from 28 non-human primates (NHP) infected with a low dose of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We identified T cells and the cytokines that they were producing (single and multiple) from each sample along with monkey status and infection progression data. Machine learning techniques were used to interrogate the experimental NHP datasets without identifying any potential TB biomarker. In parallel, we used our extensive novel NHP datasets to build and calibrate a multi-organ computational model that combines what is occurring at the site of infection (e.g., lung) at a single granuloma scale with blood level readouts that can be tracked in monkeys and humans. We then generated a large in silico repository of in silico granulomas coupled to lymph node and blood dynamics and developed an in silico tool to scale granuloma level results to a full host scale to identify what best predicts Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection outcomes. The analysis of in silico blood measures identifies Mtb-specific frequencies of effector T cell phenotypes at various time points post infection as promising indicators of infection outcome. We emphasize that pairing wetlab and computational approaches holds great promise to accelerate TB biomarker discovery.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease that is caused by infection after inhaling the bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Not everyone infected with TB bacteria becomes sick. As a result, two TB-related conditions have been categorized: latent TB infection (not sick but still harboring the bacteria) and active TB disease. If not treated properly, active TB disease can be fatal. Almost 1.3 million die of TB worldwide each year, with ~8,6 million new infections in 2013. No effective vaccine is available to protect against TB and treatment of infection with multiple antibiotics is lengthy (6–9 months), with non-compliance being a major factor for the emergence of drug-resistant strains. A key step in developing effective vaccines and possibly shorter treatment regimens is the ability to identify biomarkers that correlate prognosis and progression to infection (similar to how cholesterol levels are a measure of heart health). In this study we show how pairing computer modeling, statistics and mathematics with datasets derived from non-human primate studies can accelerate biomarker discovery, and offer a new approach to identifying correlates of protection that will be useful in clinical practice, particularly in developing countries where TB is most prevalent.

The Small Breathing Amplitude at the Upper Lobes Favors the Attraction of Polymorphonuclear Neutrophils to Mycobacterium tuberculosis Lesions and Helps to Understand the Evolution toward Active Disease in An Individual-Based Model

Infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) can induce two kinds of lesions, namely proliferative and exudative. The former are based on the presence of macrophages with controlled induction of intragranulomatous necrosis, and are even able to stop its physical progression, thus avoiding the induction of active tuberculosis (TB). In contrast, the most significant characteristic of exudative lesions is their massive infiltration with polymorphonuclear neutrophils (PMNs), which favor enlargement of the lesions and extracellular growth of the bacilli. We have built an individual-based model (IBM) (known as “TBPATCH”) using the NetLogo interface to better understand the progression from Mtb infection to TB. We have tested four main factors previously identified as being able to favor the infiltration of Mtb-infected lesions with PMNs, namely the tolerability of infected macrophages to the bacillary load; the capacity to modulate the Th17 response; the breathing amplitude (BAM) (large or small in the lower and upper lobes respectively), which influences bacillary drainage at the alveoli; and the encapsulation of Mtb-infected lesions by the interlobular septae that structure the pulmonary parenchyma into secondary lobes. Overall, although all the factors analyzed play some role, the small BAM is the major factor determining whether Mtb-infected lesions become exudative, and thus induce TB, thereby helping to understand why this usually takes place in the upper lobes. This information will be very useful for the design of future prophylactic and therapeutic approaches against TB.

Oxygen Modulates the Effectiveness of Granuloma Mediated Host Response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis: A Multiscale Computational Biology Approach

Mycobacterium tuberculosis associated granuloma formation can be viewed as a structural immune response that can contain and halt the spread of the pathogen. In several mammalian hosts, including non-human primates, Mtb granulomas are often hypoxic, although this has not been observed in wild type murine infection models. While a presumed consequence, the structural contribution of the granuloma to oxygen limitation and the concomitant impact on Mtb metabolic viability and persistence remains to be fully explored. We develop a multiscale computational model to test to what extent in vivo Mtb granulomas become hypoxic, and investigate the effects of hypoxia on host immune response efficacy and mycobacterial persistence. Our study integrates a physiological model of oxygen dynamics in the extracellular space of alveolar tissue, an agent-based model of cellular immune response, and a systems biology-based model of Mtb metabolic dynamics. Our theoretical studies suggest that the dynamics of granuloma organization mediates oxygen availability and illustrates the immunological contribution of this structural host response to infection outcome. Furthermore, our integrated model demonstrates the link between structural immune response and mechanistic drivers influencing Mtbs adaptation to its changing microenvironment and the qualitative infection outcome scenarios of clearance, containment, dissemination, and a newly observed theoretical outcome of transient containment. We observed hypoxic regions in the containment granuloma similar in size to granulomas found in mammalian in vivo models of Mtb infection. In the case of the containment outcome, our model uniquely demonstrates that immune response mediated hypoxic conditions help foster the shift down of bacteria through two stages of adaptation similar to thein vitro non-replicating persistence (NRP) observed in the Wayne model of Mtb dormancy. The adaptation in part contributes to the ability of Mtb to remain dormant for years after initial infection.

Prediction of treatment efficacy for prostate cancer using a mathematical model

Prostate immune system plays a critical role in the regulation of prostate cancer development regarding androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) and/or immunotherapy (vaccination). In this study, we developed a mathematical model to explore the interactions between prostate tumor and immune microenvironment. This model was used to predict treatment outcomes for prostate cancer with ADT, vaccination, Treg depletion and/or IL-2 neutralization. Animal data were used to guide construction, parameter selection, and validation of our model. Our analysis shows that Treg depletion and/or IL-2 neutralization can effectively improve the treatment efficacy of combined therapy with ADT and vaccination. Treg depletion has a higher synergetic effect than that from IL-2 neutralization. This study highlights a potential therapeutic strategy in effectively managing prostate tumor growth and provides a framework of systems biology approach in studying tumor-related immune mechanism and consequent selection of therapeutic regimens.

A population model capturing dynamics of tuberculosis granulomas predicts host infection outcomes

Granulomas play a centric role in tuberculosis (TB) infection progression. Multiple granulomas usually develop within a single host. These granulomas are not synchronized in size or bacteria load, and will follow different trajectories over time. How the fate of individual granulomas influence overall infection outcome at host scale is not understood, although computational models have been developed to predict single granuloma behavior. Here we present a within-host population model that tracks granulomas in two key organs during Mycobacteria tuberculosis (Mtb) infection: lung and lymph nodes (LN). We capture various time courses of TB progression, including latency and reactivation. The model predicts that there is no steady state; rather it is a continuous process of progressing to active disease over differing time periods. This is consistent with recently posed ideas suggesting that latent TB exists as a spectrum of states and not a single state. The model also predicts a dual role for granuloma development in LNs during Mtb infection: in early phases of infection granulomas suppress infection by providing additional antigens to the site of immune priming; however, this induces a more rapid reactivation at later stages by disrupting immune responses. We identify mechanisms that strongly correlate with better host-level outcomes, including elimination of uncontained lung granulomas by inducing low levels of lung tissue damage and inhibition of bacteria dissemination within the lung.

A multi-scale approach to designing therapeutics for tuberculosis

Approximately one third of the world's population is infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Limited information about how the immune system fights M. tuberculosis and what constitutes protection from the bacteria impact our ability to develop effective therapies for tuberculosis. We present an in vivo systems biology approach that integrates data from multiple model systems and over multiple length and time scales into a comprehensive multi-scale and multi-compartment view of the in vivo immune response to M. tuberculosis. We describe computational models that can be used to study (a) immunomodulation with the cytokines tumor necrosis factor and interleukin 10, (b) oral and inhaled antibiotics, and

Strategies for efficient numerical implementation of hybrid multi-scale agent-based models to describe biological systems

Biologically related processes operate across multiple spatiotemporal scales. For computational modeling methodologies to mimic this biological complexity, individual scale models must be linked in ways that allow for dynamic exchange of information across scales. A powerful methodology is to combine a discrete modeling approach, agent-based models (ABMs), with continuum models to form hybrid models. Hybrid multi-scale ABMs have been used to simulate emergent responses of biological systems. Here, we review two aspects of hybrid multi-scale ABMs: linking individual scale models and efficiently solving the resulting model. We discuss the computational choices associated with aspects of linking individual scale models while simultaneously maintaining model tractability. We demonstrate implementations of existing numerical methods in the context of hybrid multi-scale ABMs. Using an example model describing Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, we show relative computational speeds of various combinations of numerical methods. Efficient linking and solution of hybrid multi-scale ABMs is key to model portability, modularity, and their use in understanding biological phenomena at a systems level.

Modeling early events in Francisella tularensis pathogenesis

Computational models can provide valuable insights into the mechanisms of infection and be used as investigative tools to support development of medical treatments. We develop a stochastic, within-host, computational model of the infection process in the BALB/c mouse, following inhalational exposure to Francisella tularensis SCHU S4. The model is mechanistic and governed by a small number of experimentally verifiable parameters. Given an initial dose, the model generates bacterial load profiles corresponding to those produced experimentally, with a doubling time of approximately 5 h during the first 48 h of infection. Analytical approximations for the mean number of bacteria in phagosomes and cytosols for the first 24 h post-infection are derived and used to verify the stochastic model. In our description of the dynamics of macrophage infection, the number of bacteria released per rupturing macrophage is a geometrically-distributed random variable. When combined with doubling time, this provides a distribution for the time taken for infected macrophages to rupture and release their intracellular bacteria. The mean and variance of these distributions are determined by model parameters with a precise biological interpretation, providing new mechanistic insights into the determinants of immune and bacterial kinetics. Insights into the dynamics of macrophage suppression and activation gained by the model can be used to explore the potential benefits of interventions that stimulate macrophage activation.

Macrophage polarization drives granuloma outcome during Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection

Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), induces formation of granulomas, structures in which immune cells and bacteria colocalize. Macrophages are among the most abundant cell types in granulomas and have been shown to serve as both critical bactericidal cells and targets for M. tuberculosis infection and proliferation throughout the course of infection. Very little is known about how these processes are regulated, what controls macrophage microenvironment-specific polarization and plasticity, or why some granulomas control bacteria and others permit bacterial dissemination. We take a computational-biology approach to investigate mechanisms that drive macrophage polarization, function, and bacterial control in granulomas. We define a "macrophage polarization ratio" as a metric to understand how cytokine signaling translates into polarization of single macrophages in a granuloma, which in turn modulates cellular functions, including antimicrobial activity and cytokine production. Ultimately, we extend this macrophage ratio to the tissue scale and define a "granuloma polarization ratio" describing mean polarization measures for entire granulomas. Here we coupled experimental data from nonhuman primate TB granulomas to our computational model, and we predict two novel and testable hypotheses regarding macrophage profiles in TB outcomes. First, the temporal dynamics of granuloma polarization ratios are predictive of granuloma outcome. Second, stable necrotic granulomas with low CFU counts and limited inflammation are characterized by short NF-κB signal activation intervals. These results suggest that the dynamics of NF-κB signaling is a viable therapeutic target to promote M1 polarization early during infection and to improve outcome.

Tuneable resolution as a systems biology approach for multi-scale, multi-compartment computational models

The use of multi-scale mathematical and computational models to study complex biological processes is becoming increasingly productive. Multi-scale models span a range of spatial and/or temporal scales and can encompass multi-compartment (e.g., multi-organ) models. Modeling advances are enabling virtual experiments to explore and answer questions that are problematic to address in the wet-lab. Wet-lab experimental technologies now allow scientists to observe, measure, record, and analyze experiments focusing on different system aspects at a variety of biological scales. We need the technical ability to mirror that same flexibility in virtual experiments using multi-scale models. Here we present a new approach, tuneable resolution, which can begin providing that flexibility. Tuneable resolution involves fine- or coarse-graining existing multi-scale models at the user's discretion, allowing adjustment of the level of resolution specific to a question, an experiment, or a scale of interest. Tuneable resolution expands options for revising and validating mechanistic multi-scale models, can extend the longevity of multi-scale models, and may increase computational efficiency. The tuneable resolution approach can be applied to many model types, including differential equation, agent-based, and hybrid models. We demonstrate our tuneable resolution ideas with examples relevant to infectious disease modeling, illustrating key principles at work. WIREs Syst Biol Med 2014, 6:225–245. doi:10.1002/wsbm.1270

How to cite this article:WIREs Syst Biol Med 2014, 6:289–309. doi:10.1002/wsbm.1270

Harnessing the heterogeneity of T cell differentiation fate to fine-tune generation of effector and memory T cells

Recent studies show that naïve T cells bearing identical T cell receptors experience heterogeneous differentiation and clonal expansion processes. The factors controlling this outcome are not well characterized, and their contributions to immune cell dynamics are similarly poorly understood. In this study, we develop a computational model to elaborate mechanisms occurring within and between two important physiological compartments, lymph nodes and blood, to determine how immune cell dynamics are controlled. Our multi-organ (multi-compartment) model integrates cellular and tissue level events and allows us to examine the heterogeneous differentiation of individual precursor cognate naïve T cells to generate both effector and memory T lymphocytes. Using this model, we simulate a hypothetical immune response and reproduce both primary and recall responses to infection. Increased numbers of antigen-bearing dendritic cells (DCs) are predicted to raise production of both effector and memory T cells, and distinct “sweet spots” of peptide-MHC levels on those DCs exist that favor CD4+ or CD8+ T cell differentiation toward either effector or memory cell phenotypes. This has important implications for vaccine development and immunotherapy.

Using an Agent-Based Model to Examine the Role of Dynamic Bacterial Virulence Potential in the Pathogenesis of Surgical Site Infection

OBJECTIVE

Despite clinical advances, surgical site infections (SSIs) remain a problem. The development of SSIs involves a complex interplay between the cellular and molecular mechanisms of wound healing and contaminating bacteria, and here, we utilize an agent-based model (ABM) to investigate the role of bacterial virulence potential in the pathogenesis of SSI.

APPROACH

The Muscle Wound ABM (MWABM) incorporates muscle cells, neutrophils, macrophages, myoblasts, abstracted blood vessels, and avirulent/virulent bacteria to simulate the pathogenesis of SSIs. Simulated bacteria with virulence potential can mutate to possess resistance to reactive oxygen species and increased invasiveness. Simulated experiments (t=7 days) involved parameter sweeps of initial wound size to identify transition zones between healed and nonhealed wounds/SSIs, and to evaluate the effect of avirulent/virulent bacteria.

RESULTS

The MWABM reproduced the dynamics of normal successful healing, including a transition zone in initial wound size beyond which healing was significantly impaired. Parameter sweeps with avirulent bacteria demonstrated that smaller wound sizes were associated with healing failure. This effect was even more pronounced with the addition of virulence potential to the contaminating bacteria.

INNOVATION

The MWABM integrates the myriad factors involved in the healing of a normal wound and the pathogenesis of SSIs. This type of model can serve as a useful framework into which more detailed mechanistic knowledge can be embedded.

CONCLUSION

Future work will involve more comprehensive representation of host factors, and especially the ability of those host factors to activate virulence potential in the microbes involved.

Co-infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus: an overview and motivation for systems approaches

Tuberculosis is a devastating disease that accounts for a high proportion of infectious disease morbidity and mortality worldwide. HIV-1 co-infection exacerbates tuberculosis. Enhanced understanding of the host-pathogen relationship in HIV-1 and Mycobacterium tuberculosis co-infection is required. While reductionist approaches have yielded many valuable insights into disease pathogenesis, systems approaches are required that develop data-driven models able to predict emergent properties of this complex co-infection system in order to develop novel therapeutic approaches and to improve diagnostics. Here, we provide a pathogenesis-focused overview of HIV-TB co-infection followed by an introduction to systems approaches and concrete examples of how such approaches are useful.

Multi-scale modeling predicts a balance of tumor necrosis factor-α and interleukin-10 controls the granuloma environment during Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection

Interleukin-10 (IL-10) and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) are key anti- and pro-inflammatory mediators elicited during the host immune response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). Understanding the opposing effects of these mediators is difficult due to the complexity of processes acting across different spatial (molecular, cellular, and tissue) and temporal (seconds to years) scales. We take an in silico approach and use multi-scale agent based modeling of the immune response to Mtb, including molecular scale details for both TNF-α and IL-10. Our model predicts that IL-10 is necessary to modulate macrophage activation levels and to prevent host-induced tissue damage in a granuloma, an aggregate of cells that forms in response to Mtb. We show that TNF-α and IL-10 parameters related to synthesis, signaling, and spatial distribution processes control concentrations of TNF-α and IL-10 in a granuloma and determine infection outcome in the long-term. We devise an overall measure of granuloma function based on three metrics - total bacterial load, macrophage activation levels, and apoptosis of resting macrophages - and use this metric to demonstrate a balance of TNF-α and IL-10 concentrations is essential to Mtb infection control, within a single granuloma, with minimal host-induced tissue damage. Our findings suggest that a balance of TNF-α and IL-10 defines a granuloma environment that may be beneficial for both host and pathogen, but perturbing the balance could be used as a novel therapeutic strategy to modulate infection outcomes.

Agent-based modeling: a systematic assessment of use cases and requirements for enhancing pharmaceutical research and development productivity

A crisis continues to brew within the pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) enterprise: productivity continues declining as costs rise, despite ongoing, often dramatic scientific and technical advances. To reverse this trend, we offer various suggestions for both the expansion and broader adoption of modeling and simulation (M&S) methods. We suggest strategies and scenarios intended to enable new M&S use cases that directly engage R&D knowledge generation and build actionable mechanistic insight, thereby opening the door to enhanced productivity. What M&S requirements must be satisfied to access and open the door, and begin reversing the productivity decline? Can current methods and tools fulfill the requirements, or are new methods necessary? We draw on the relevant, recent literature to provide and explore answers. In so doing, we identify essential, key roles for agent-based and other methods. We assemble a list of requirements necessary for M&S to meet the diverse needs distilled from a collection of research, review, and opinion articles. We argue that to realize its full potential, M&S should be actualized within a larger information technology framework—a dynamic knowledge repository—wherein models of various types execute, evolve, and increase in accuracy over time. We offer some details of the issues that must be addressed for such a repository to accrue the capabilities needed to reverse the productivity decline. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Hybrid equation/agent-based model of ischemia-induced hyperemia and pressure ulcer formation predicts greater propensity to ulcerate in subjects with spinal cord injury

Pressure ulcers are costly and life-threatening complications for people with spinal cord injury (SCI). People with SCI also exhibit differential blood flow properties in non-ulcerated skin. We hypothesized that a computer simulation of the pressure ulcer formation process, informed by data regarding skin blood flow and reactive hyperemia in response to pressure, could provide insights into the pathogenesis and effective treatment of post-SCI pressure ulcers. Agent-Based Models (ABM) are useful in settings such as pressure ulcers, in which spatial realism is important. Ordinary Differential Equation-based (ODE) models are useful when modeling physiological phenomena such as reactive hyperemia. Accordingly, we constructed a hybrid model that combines ODEs related to blood flow along with an ABM of skin injury, inflammation, and ulcer formation. The relationship between pressure and the course of ulcer formation, as well as several other important characteristic patterns of pressure ulcer formation, was demonstrated in this model. The ODE portion of this model was calibrated to data related to blood flow following experimental pressure responses in non-injured human subjects or to data from people with SCI. This model predicted a higher propensity to form ulcers in response to pressure in people with SCI vs. non-injured control subjects, and thus may serve as novel diagnostic platform for post-SCI ulcer formation.

Modeling the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Granuloma - the Critical Battlefield in Host Immunity and Disease

Granulomas are the hallmark of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) infection and thus sit at the center of tuberculosis (TB) immunopathogenesis. TB can result from either early progression of a primary granuloma during the infection process or reactivation of an established granuloma in a latently infected person. Granulomas are compact, organized aggregates of immune cells consisting of blood-derived infected and uninfected macrophages, foamy macrophages, epithelioid cells (uniquely differentiated macrophages), and multinucleated giant cells (Langerhans cells) surrounded by a ring of lymphocytes. The granuloma's main function is to localize and contain M.tb while concentrating the immune response to a limited area. However, complete eradication does not occur since M.tb has its own strategies to persist within the granuloma and to reactivate and escape under certain conditions. Thus M.tb-containing granulomas represent a unique battlefield for dictating both the host immune and bacterial response. The architecture, composition, function, and maintenance of granulomas are key aspects to study since they are expected to have a profound influence on M.tb physiology in this niche. Granulomas are not only present in mycobacterial infections; they can be found in many other infectious and non-infectious diseases and play a crucial role in immunity and disease. Here we review the models currently available to study the granulomatous response to M.tb.

The roles of immune memory and aging in protective immunity and endogenous reactivation of tuberculosis

Finding more effective vaccines against tuberculosis (TB) and improved preventive treatments against endogenous reactivation of latent TB is strategic to block transmission and reach the WHO goal of eliminating TB by 2050. Key related open questions in TB research include: i) what are the determinants of a strong memory response upon primary infection? ii) what is the role of cytokines towards protective memory response against a secondary infection? iii) what are the mechanisms responsible for the increased risk of reactivation in elderly individuals? To address these questions, we explored a computational model of the immune response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis including a mathematical description of immunosenescence and the generation and maintenance of immune memory. Sensitivity analysis techniques, together with extensive model characterization and in silico experiments, were applied to identify key mechanisms controlling TB reactivation and immunological memory. Key findings of this study are summarized by the following model predictions: i) increased strength and duration of memory protection is associated with higher levels of Tumor Necrosis Factor- (TNF) during primary infection; ii) production of TNF, but not of interferon-, by memory T cells during secondary infection is a major determinant of effective protection; iii) impaired recruitment of CD4+ T cells may promote reactivation of latent TB infections in aging hosts. This study is a first attempt to consider the immune dynamics of a persistent infection throughout the lifetime of the host, taking into account immunosenescence and memory. While the model is TB specific, the results are applicable to other persistent bacterial infections and can aid in the development, evaluation and refinement of TB treatment and/or vaccine protocols.