Conspiracy beliefs in the general population: The importance of psychopathology, cognitive style and educational attainment

Insomnia is associated with conspiracy mentality, psychological distress, and psychological well-being

RATIONALE

Conspiracy theories are frequently encountered as they exist across all domains of life, from interpersonal issues in the workplace to global events. Research has primarily focused on uncovering the antecedents of conspiracy beliefs; meanwhile, little research has examined the impacts of possessing a conspiracy mentality.

OBJECTIVE

In the current research, we examined the relationships of conspiracy mentality with perceived control, insomnia, psychological well-being (i.e., positive emotions, engagement, relationships, meaning, and achievement), and psychological distress (i.e., anxiety and depression).

METHODS

Participants (N = 388) reported their conspiracy mentality at Time 1 and then completed measures assessing perceived control, insomnia, psychological well-being, and psychological distress 1 month later at Time 2. We conducted regression analyses, structural equation modeling, and bootstrapping analyses to test our predictions that conspiracy mentality predicts insomnia through thwarted perceived control and that this relationship carries direct implications for psychological well-being and distress.

RESULTS

As predicted, regression analyses showed that conspiracy mentality is negatively associated with perceived control and indicators of psychological well-being, and positively associated with insomnia and indicators of psychological distress 1 month later. The results of structural equation modeling and bootstrapping analyses provided empirical support to our theoretical model that perceived control and insomnia serially mediate the relationship between conspiracy mentality and both psychological well-being and psychological distress.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings offer important contributions to the literature on conspiracy beliefs. Practically, they offer potential routes of intervention to weaken insomnia and psychological distress and enhance psychological well-being.

Insight in the Conspiracist's Mind

ACADEMIC ABSTRACT

The motto of the conspiracist, "Do your own research," may seem ludicrous to scientists. Indeed, it is often dismissed as a mere rhetorical device that conspiracists use to give themselves the semblance of science. In this perspective paper, we explore the information-seeking activities ("research") that conspiracists do engage in. Drawing on the experimental psychology of aha experiences, we explain how these activities, as well as the epistemic experiences that precede (curiosity) or follow (insight or "aha" experiences) them, may play a crucial role in the appeal and development of conspiracy beliefs. Aha moments have properties that can be exploited by conspiracy theories, such as the potential for false but seemingly grounded conclusions. Finally, we hypothesize that the need for autonomous epistemic agency and discovery is universal but increases as people experience more uncertainty and/or feel epistemically excluded in society, hence linking it to existing literature on explaining conspiracy theories.

PUBLIC ABSTRACT

Recent events have made it painfully clear that conspiracy beliefs can tear deep rifts in society and that we still have not found an adequate, de-escalating response to this. To understand the appeal of conspiracy theories and find new, humanizing ways to talk about them, we propose in this perspective paper to start from the universal human need to autonomously make discoveries through personal knowledge-generating actions. Indeed, psychological research shows that the aha experiences that accompany subjective discoveries create confidence in and perceived ownership of ideas that may be exploited by conspiracy theories. We hypothesize that people experiencing more uncertainty and/or epistemic exclusion in society will especially feel the need to re-establish autonomous epistemic agency and discovery. While this explanation starts from shared human experiences and practices, it also illustrates the potential of those processes to lead to a narrowed world and ossified cognition.

A latent profile analysis of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs: Associations with thinking styles, mistrust, socio-political control, need for closure and verbal intelligence

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, attention has been drawn to conspiracy theories. To date, research has largely examined commonalities in conspiracy theory belief, however it is important to identify where there may be notable differences. The aim of the present research was first to distinguish between typologies of COVID-19 conspiracy belief and explore demographic, social cognitive factors associated with these beliefs. Secondly, we aimed to examine the effects of such beliefs on adherence to government health guidelines. Participants (N = 319) rated well known COVID-19 conspiracy theories, completing measures of thinking style, socio-political control, mistrust, verbal intelligence, need for closure and demographic information. Participants also rated the extent to which they followed government health guidelines. Latent profile analysis suggests three profiles of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs with low, moderate, and high COVID conspiracy belief profiles and successively stronger endorsement on all but one of the COVID-19 conspiracy theories. Those holding stronger COVID-19 conspiracy theory beliefs are more likely to reason emotively, feel less socio-political control, mistrust others, have lower verbal ability and adhere less to COVID-19 guidelines. The social and health implications of these findings are discussed.

The role of defense styles and psychopathological symptoms on adherence to conspiracy theories during the COVID-19 pandemic

Due to the unpredictability of the COVID-19 pandemic situation, individuals felt uncertain and insecure. As a consequence, conspiracy theories flourished and quickly spread. In the current study, we examine the relationship between general and COVID-19-related conspiracy theories, cognitive reflection, psychopathological symptoms, and defense styles in a sample of Italian adults. A total of 450 participants (50.2% male; mean age = 40.89 years, SD = 12.15) took part in an online survey. Two linear regression models on the general (explained variance 22.6%) and COVID-19-related (explained variance 33.0%) conspiracy theories have been tested. Among the predictive factors, older age, mania symptoms, and immature defenses facilitate adherence to conspiracy theories; on the opposite side, higher education, cognitive reflection, and mature defenses protected from adherence to conspiracy theories. The study provides some novel findings about factors that are significantly associated with general and COVID-19-related conspiracy theories, and highlights the pivotal role of individuals' psychological defenses in conspiracy theories.

Contemporary trends in psychological research on conspiracy beliefs. A systematic review

Background

The number of psychological studies on conspiracy beliefs has been systematically growing for about a dozen years, but in recent years, the trend has intensified. We provided a review covering the psychological literature on conspiracy beliefs from 2018 to 2021. Halfway through this period, the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, accompanied by an explosion of movements based on conspiracy theories, intensifying researchers' interest in this issue.

Methods

Adhering to PRISMA guidelines, the review systematically searched for relevant journal articles published between 2018 and 2021. A search was done on Scopus and Web of Science (only peer-reviewed journals). A study was included if it contained primary empirical data, if specific or general conspiracy belief(s) were measured and if its correlation with at least one other psychological variable was reported. All the studies were grouped for the descriptive analysis according to the methodology used, the participants' characteristics, the continent of origin, the sample size, and the conspiracy beliefs measurement tools. Due to substantial methodological heterogeneity of the studies, narrative synthesis was performed. The five researchers were assigned specific roles at each stage of the analysis to ensure the highest quality of the research.

Results

Following the proposed methodology, 308 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility and 274 articles (417 studies) meeting the inclusion criteria were identified and included in the review. Almost half of the studies (49.6%) were conducted in European countries. The vast majority of the studies (85.7%) were carried out on samples of adult respondents. The research presents antecedents as well as (potential) consequences of conspiracy beliefs. We grouped the antecedents of conspiracy beliefs into six categories: cognitive (e.g., thinking style) motivational (e.g., uncertainty avoidance), personality (e.g., collective narcissism), psychopathology (e.g., Dark Triad traits), political (e.g., ideological orientation), and sociocultural factors (e.g., collectivism).

Conclusion and limitations

The research presents evidence on the links between conspiracy beliefs and a range of attitudes and behaviors considered unfavorable from the point of view of individuals and of the society at large. It turned out that different constructs of conspiracy thinking interact with each other. The limitations of the study are discussed in the last part of the article.

The perception and attitude of Turkish ophthalmologists related with COVID-19 pandemic

Türk göz hekimlerinin COVID-19 pandemisi ile ilgili algı ve tutumları. Öz Amaç: Üçüncü basamak bir referans göz hastalıkları hastanesinde görev yapan Türk göz hekimleri arasında, COVID-19 ile ilgili algı ve tutum düzeylerini araştırmak. Gereç ve Yöntem: Mart 2021'de, sosyodemografik form ve 52 çoktan seçmeli soru içeren ankete dayalı kesitsel bir çalışma yapılmıştır. Sorular, üç kavramın algısını ayrı ayrı değerlendirmeye yönelikti: Hastalık, COVID-19'un nedenleri ve COVID-19'un kontrolü. Yanısıra, COVID-19'dan kaçınma tutumlarını ve COVID-19 aşısına yönelik tutumları değerlendirmeyi hedefleyen sorulara da yer verildi. Bulgular: Toplam 43 (15 erkek ve 28 kadın) göz hekimi çevrimiçi anketi tamamladı. Göz hekimleri arasında tehlikelilik ve bulaşıcılık algısı güçlüydü. COVID-19'un nedenlerine ilişkin algı alt boyutlarındaki puanlar orta-ılımlı düzeydeydi. Aşağıdakiler arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı farklar ortaya çıktı: Asistan hekimler ve öğretim üyeleri arasında Makro Kontrol’de (p=0.02), Kontrol Edilebilirlik’te (p=0.38) ve COVID-19 Kontrolü Algısı’nda (p=0.022); erkekler ve kadınlar (p=0,009) ile asistan hekimler ve öğretim üyeleri (p=0,023) arasında COVID-19'dan Davranışsal Kaçınma Tutumları’nda; asistan hekimler ve öğretim üyeleri arasında COVID-19 Aşısına Yönelik Tutumlar’da (p=0.034). Sonuç: COVID-19, göz hekimlerince tehlikeli ve bulaşıcı olarak algılandı. COVID-19'un Kontrolü Algısı, öğretim üyelerinde, asistan hekimlere göre daha güçlüydü. Kadın ve öğretim üyesi katılımcılarda, COVID-19'dan Davranışsal Kaçınma tutumları daha yüksekti. Öğretim üyeleri, COVID-19 aşısına karşı asistan doktorlardan daha az olumsuz tutum sergiledi. Bu değerlendirmeler, hem COVID-19 pandemisinde hem de gelecekteki salgınlarda, hastalıkla mücadelede, yolumuza ışık tutabilir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Algı, COVID-19, oftalmologlar, pandemi, tutum.

Individual, intergroup and nation-level influences on belief in conspiracy theories

Conspiracy theories are part of mainstream public life, with the potential to undermine governments, promote racism, ignite extremism and threaten public health efforts. Psychological research on conspiracy theories is booming, with more than half of the academic articles on the topic published since 2019. In this Review, we synthesize the literature with an eye to understanding the psychological factors that shape willingness to believe conspiracy theories. We begin at the individual level, examining the cognitive, clinical, motivational, personality and developmental factors that predispose people to believe conspiracy theories. Drawing on insights from social and evolutionary psychology, we then review research examining conspiracy theories as an intergroup phenomenon that reflects and reinforces societal fault lines. Finally, we examine how conspiracy theories are shaped by the economic, political, cultural and socio-historical contexts at the national level. This multilevel approach offers a deep and broad insight into conspiracist thinking that increases understanding of the problem and offers potential solutions.

Of precarity and conspiracy: Introducing a socio-functional model of conspiracy beliefs

Conspiracy Beliefs (CB) are a key vector of violent extremism, radicalism and unconventional political events. So far, social-psychological research has extensively documented how cognitive, emotional and intergroup factors can promote CB. Evidence also suggests that adherence to CB moves along social class lines: low-income and low-education are among the most robust predictors of CB. Yet, the potential role of precarity-the subjective experience of permanent insecurity stemming from objective material strain-in shaping CB remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose for the first time a socio-functional model of CB. We test the hypothesis that precarity could foster increased CB because it undermines trust in government and the broader political 'elites'. Data from the World Value Survey (n = 21,650; Study 1, electoral CB) and from representative samples from polls conducted in France (n = 1760, Study 2a, conspiracy mentality) and Italy (n = 2196, Study 2b, COVID-19 CB), corroborate a mediation model whereby precarity is directly and indirectly associated with lower trust in authorities and higher CB. In addition, these links are robust to adjustment on income, self-reported SES and education. Considering precarity allows for a truly social-psychological understanding of CB as the by-product of structural issues (e.g. growing inequalities). Results from our socio-functional model suggest that implementing solutions at the socio-economic level could prove efficient in fighting CB.

Exploring vaccine hesitancy: the twofold role of critical thinking

With the progress of the vaccination campaign against the SARS-COV-2, we are ever closer to reaching that part of the population that refuses or is hesitant about vaccination. This study investigated the association between critical thinking motivation factors (i.e., intrinsic value of critical thinking and expectancy of one's critical thinking ability), conspiracy mentality, intolerance of uncertainty and hesitancy toward vaccination. A sample of 390 participants completed an online survey during April 2021. Across participants, results indicate that conspiracy mentality and expectancy about personal ability as a critical thinker positively predict vaccine hesitancy. On the contrary, the intrinsic value attributed to critical thinking, intolerance of uncertainty, and education are negatively associated with hesitancy. While the findings confirm existing evidence, particularly on the detrimental role of conspiracy mentality on vaccine acceptance, they also shed light on the double-faced role exercised by critical thinking. Practical implications and future directions are discussed.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12144-022-04165-w.

The effects of base rate neglect on sequential belief updating and real-world beliefs

Base-rate neglect is a pervasive bias in judgment that is conceptualized as underweighting of prior information and can have serious consequences in real-world scenarios. This bias is thought to reflect variability in inferential processes but empirical support for a cohesive theory of base-rate neglect with sufficient explanatory power to account for longer-term and real-world beliefs is lacking. A Bayesian formalization of base-rate neglect in the context of sequential belief updating predicts that belief trajectories should exhibit dynamic patterns of dependence on the order in which evidence is presented and its consistency with prior beliefs. To test this, we developed a novel 'urn-and-beads' task that systematically manipulated the order of colored bead sequences and elicited beliefs via an incentive-compatible procedure. Our results in two independent online studies confirmed the predictions of the sequential base-rate neglect model: people exhibited beliefs that are more influenced by recent evidence and by evidence inconsistent with prior beliefs. We further found support for a noisy-sampling inference model whereby base-rate neglect results from rational discounting of noisy internal representations of prior beliefs. Finally, we found that model-derived indices of base-rate neglect-including noisier prior representation-correlated with propensity for unusual beliefs outside the laboratory. Our work supports the relevance of Bayesian accounts of sequential base-rate neglect to real-world beliefs and hints at strategies to minimize deleterious consequences of this pervasive bias.

Emotion Dysregulation and Conspiracy Beliefs about COVID-19: The Moderating Role of Critical Social Media Use

As COVID-19 has spread worldwide, conspiracy theories have proliferated rapidly on social media platforms, adversely affecting public health. For this reason, media literacy interventions have been highly recommended, although the impact of critical social media use on the development of COVID-19 conspiracy theories has not yet been empirically studied. Moreover, emotional dysregulation may play another crucial role in the development of such theories, as they are often associated with stress, anxiety, lack of control, and other negative emotions. Therefore, the aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that emotion dysregulation would be positively associated with conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19 and that critical use of social media would attenuate this association. Data from 930 Italian participants (339 men and 591 women) were collected online during the third wave of the COVID-19 outbreak. A moderated model was tested using the PROCESS Macro for SPSS. Results showed that: (1) emotion dysregulation and critical social media use accounted for a significant proportion of the variance in conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19; and (2) critical social media use moderated the effect of emotion dysregulation on conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19. Implications for preventing the spread of conspiracy theories are discussed.

Contextualized impacts of an infodemic on vaccine hesitancy: The moderating role of socioeconomic and cultural factors

This study examines how perceived information overload and misinformation affect vaccine hesitancy and how this is moderated by structural and cultural factors. By applying and extending the fundamental cause theory, this study proposes a contextualized impact model to analyze a cross-national survey of 6034 residents in six societies in Asia, Europe and North America in June 2021. The study finds that (1) Older and highly-educated participants were less susceptible to COVID-19 information overload and belief in vaccine misinformation. (2) Perceived information overload led to an increase in vaccine acceptance and uptake, whereas belief in vaccine misinformation caused a decrease. (3) The structural differentiation of vaccine hesitancy was salient and higher socioeconomic status could buffer the negative impact of misinformation on vaccine acceptance. (4) Cultural factors such as collectivism and authoritarian mentality also served as buffers against the misinformation that reduced vaccine acceptance and uptake. These findings add nuanced footnotes to the fundamental causes theory and contribute to the discussion on the global recovery from the infodemic. Besides fact-checking and improving individual information literacy, effective and long-term information management and health policies must pay attention to stratified information gaps across socioeconomic groups, and to contextualize the communication and intervention strategies in different cultures.

Religious Conspiracy Theories About the COVID-19 Pandemic Are Associated With Negative Mental Health

Objectives: Together with the COVID-19 pandemic, conspiracy theories have begun to spread. Evidence is lacking for religious conspiracy theories (RCT) related to COVID-19 in a non-religious environment. This study aimed to assess links between religiosity and spirituality (R/S) and RCT about COVID-19, and to examine their associations with mental health.

Methods: A sample of Czech adults (n = 1,273, mean age = 47.5, SD = 16.4; 51.5% male) participated in the survey. We measured R/S, RCT, negative religious coping (NRC), feelings impairment and mental health symptoms.

Results: We found R/S were significantly associated with RCT with β 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59–0.82) for the strongest association. Moreover, RCT and NRC were strongly associated with paranoia, anxiety and depression. The most frequent association was found for NRC and paranoid ideation, with β of 0.35 (95% CI 0.26–0.44).

Conclusion: Our findings showed associations between religiosity/spirituality and beliefs in religious conspiracy theories about COVID-19. Moreover, these RCT and negative religious coping were linked to higher possibility of mental health problems. Understanding these associations may help prevent this negative impact and contribute to the effectiveness of psychotherapeutic help.

Thinking style and psychosis proneness do not predict false insights

The FIAT paradigm (Grimmer et al., 2021) is a novel method of eliciting 'Aha' moments for incorrect solutions to anagrams in the laboratory, i.e. false insights. There exist many documented reports of psychotic symptoms accompanying strong feelings of 'Aha!' (Feyaerts, Henriksen, Vanheule, Myin-Germeys, & Sass, 2021; Mishara, 2010; Tulver, Kaup, Laukkonen, & Aru, 2021), suggesting that the newly developed FIAT could reveal whether people who have more false insights are more prone to psychosis and delusional belief. To test this possibility, we recruited 200 participants to take an adapted version of the FIAT and complete measures of thinking style and psychosis proneness. We found no association between experimentally induced false insights and measures of Schizotypy, Need for Cognition, Jumping to Conclusions, Aberrant Salience, Faith in Intuition, or the Cognitive Reflection Task. We conclude that experiencing false insights might not be constrained to any particular type of person, but rather, may arise for anyone under the right circumstances.

Reflective thinking predicts lower conspiracy beliefs: A meta-analysis

One of the many established predictors of conspiracy beliefs is reflective thinking, but no meta-analysis so far has examined this relationship. In the current meta-analysis of published and unpublished correlational data (145 samples, 181 effect sizes), we found a significant negative association between reflective thinking and conspiracy beliefs with a medium-level effect size (r = –.189) . Similar levels of correlations were found across different types of measures (self-report vs. performance-based) and conspiracy beliefs (generic vs. specific). Further, no evidence suggested publication bias in this body of work. Suggestions for future research are discussed.

Personality and Motivation to Comply With COVID-19 Protective Measures in Germany

The COVID-19 pandemic strains the healthcare systems, economy, education, and social life. Governments took several protective measures and formulated behavioral guidelines to prevent individual diseases and the collapse of healthcare systems. However, individual differences in the extent of compliance with the measures are apparent. To shed more light on this issue, the present correlational study examined the joint relation of several personal characteristics to people's motivation to comply with seven protective measures. Personal characteristics included age, gender, risk perception, the Big Five, the Dark Triad, conspiracy mentality, perceived locus of control, and general affect. Protective measures included social distancing, hygiene rules, wearing face masks, using a contact-tracing app, sharing one's infection status via the app, reducing physical contacts, and vaccinations. The study ran from 10 November 2020 to 29 December 2020. Based on a sample of 1,007 German-speaking participants, bivariate correlations and multiple regression analyses showed that personal characteristics are significantly linked to the motivation to comply with these measures. However, general affect, control beliefs, and basic personality traits play only a minor role. Age and gender showed some significant associations with protective measures. In contrast, protection motivation factors, in terms of perceived severity of and vulnerability to infection, and conspiracy mentality appear to be the major correlates of adopting protective behavior. The absolute motivation to comply with the measures also shows that hygiene rules and wearing face masks receive a higher average agreement than more personally intrusive measures such as physical contact restrictions and vaccinations. These results highlight that factors that are relevant to some measures may be irrelevant to other measures. Differences in people's personal characteristics should be considered in the design and communication of measures to support social acceptance and effectiveness. In this context, cognitive variables, which can be addressed by communication and education directly, seem to be more important than general affect and relatively time-invariant personality traits.

Intuition, reason, and conspiracy beliefs

Conspiracy theories tend to involve doubt and skepticism, but are conspiracy believers really more deliberative? We review recent research that investigates the relative roles of intuition and reason in conspiracy belief and find that the preponderance of evidence indicates that conspiracy belief is linked to an overreliance on intuition and a lack of reflection. This research, in addition to work investigating the broader influence of misinformation, indicates that people may believe conspiracies partly because they fail to engage in analytic thinking and rely too much on their intuitions. However, we also note that research in this area lacks in experimental studies and that work focusing on underlying cognitive mechanisms is needed.

Paranormal beliefs and cognitive function: A systematic review and assessment of study quality across four decades of research

BACKGROUND

Research into paranormal beliefs and cognitive functioning has expanded considerably since the last review almost 30 years ago, prompting the need for a comprehensive review. The current systematic review aims to identify the reported associations between paranormal beliefs and cognitive functioning, and to assess study quality.

METHOD

We searched four databases (Scopus, ScienceDirect, SpringerLink, and OpenGrey) from inception until May 2021. Inclusion criteria comprised papers published in English that contained original data assessing paranormal beliefs and cognitive function in healthy adult samples. Study quality and risk of bias was assessed using the Appraisal tool for Cross-Sectional Studies (AXIS) and results were synthesised through narrative review. The review adhered to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and was preregistered as part of a larger registration on the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/uzm5v).

RESULTS

From 475 identified studies, 71 (n = 20,993) met our inclusion criteria. Studies were subsequently divided into the following six categories: perceptual and cognitive biases (k = 19, n = 3,397), reasoning (k = 17, n = 9,661), intelligence, critical thinking, and academic ability (k = 12, n = 2,657), thinking style (k = 13, n = 4,100), executive function and memory (k = 6, n = 810), and other cognitive functions (k = 4, n = 368). Study quality was rated as good-to-strong for 75% of studies and appears to be improving across time. Nonetheless, we identified areas of methodological weakness including: the lack of preregistration, discussion of limitations, a-priori justification of sample size, assessment of nonrespondents, and the failure to adjust for multiple testing. Over 60% of studies have recruited undergraduates and 30% exclusively psychology undergraduates, which raises doubt about external validity. Our narrative synthesis indicates high heterogeneity of study findings. The most consistent associations emerge for paranormal beliefs with increased intuitive thinking and confirmatory bias, and reduced conditional reasoning ability and perception of randomness.

CONCLUSIONS

Although study quality is good, areas of methodological weakness exist. In addressing these methodological issues, we propose that authors engage with preregistration of data collection and analysis procedures. At a conceptual level, we argue poorer cognitive performance across seemingly disparate cognitive domains might reflect the influence of an over-arching executive dysfunction.

Willingness to vaccinate against SARS-CoV-2: The role of reasoning biases and conspiracist ideation

BACKGR1OUND: Widespread vaccine hesitancy and refusal complicate containment of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Extant research indicates that biased reasoning and conspiracist ideation discourage vaccination. However, causal pathways from these constructs to vaccine hesitancy and refusal remain underspecified, impeding efforts to intervene and increase vaccine uptake.

METHOD

554 participants who denied prior SARS-CoV-2 vaccination completed self-report measures of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine intentions, conspiracist ideation, and constructs from the Health Belief Model of medical decision-making (such as perceived vaccine dangerousness) along with tasks measuring reasoning biases (such as those concerning data gathering behavior). Cutting-edge machine learning algorithms (Greedy Fast Causal Inference) and psychometric network analysis were used to elucidate causal pathways to (and from) vaccine intentions.

RESULTS

Results indicated that a bias toward reduced data gathering during reasoning may cause paranoia, increasing the perceived dangerousness of vaccines and thereby reducing willingness to vaccinate. Existing interventions that target data gathering and paranoia therefore hold promise for encouraging vaccination. Additionally, reduced willingness to vaccinate was identified as a likely cause of belief in conspiracy theories, subverting the common assumption that the opposite causal relation exists. Finally, perceived severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection and perceived vaccine dangerousness (but not effectiveness) were potential direct causes of willingness to vaccinate, providing partial support for the Health Belief Model's applicability to SARS-CoV-2 vaccine decisions.

CONCLUSIONS

These insights significantly advance our understanding of the underpinnings of vaccine intentions and should scaffold efforts to prepare more effective interventions on hesitancy for deployment during future pandemics.

Is intuition allied with jumping to conclusions in decision-making? An intensive longitudinal study in patients with delusions and in non-clinical individuals

Research suggests that a jumping-to-conclusions (JTC) bias, excessive intuition, and reduced analysis in information processing may favor suboptimal decision-making, both in non-clinical and mentally disordered individuals. The temporal relationship between processing modes and JTC bias, however, remains unexplored. Therefore, using an experience sampling methodology (ESM) approach, this study examines the temporal associations between intuitive/analytical information processing, JTC bias, and delusions in non-clinical individuals and patients with schizophrenia. Specifically, we examine whether a high use of intuitive and/or a low use of analytical processing predicts subsequent JTC bias and paranoid conviction. In a smartphone-based ESM study, participants will be prompted four times per day over three consecutive days to answer questionnaires designed to measure JTC bias, paranoid conviction, and preceding everyday-life intuition/analysis. Our hierarchical data will be analyzed using multilevel modelling for hypothesis testing. Results will further elucidate the role of aberrant human reasoning, particularly intuition, in (non-)clinical delusions and delusion-like experiences, and also inform general information processing models.

Conspiratorial Beliefs and Cognitive Styles: An Integrated Look on Analytic Thinking, Critical Thinking, and Scientific Reasoning in Relation to (Dis)trust in Conspiracy Theories

The tendency to believe in conspiracy theories (implying secret and malevolent plots by scheming groups or individuals), incites growing decennial interest among psychological researchers (exploring the associated personality traits, worldviews and cognitive styles of people). The link between the conspiratorial beliefs and the cognitive styles remains of particular interest to scholars, requiring integrated theoretical considerations. This perspective article will focus on the relationship between the propensity to (dis)trust conspiracy theories and three cognitive styles: analytic thinking, critical thinking, and scientific reasoning. Analytic thinking (inclination toward slow and deliberate processing of information in a conscious effort to mitigate biases and reach objective understanding of facts), is a well-studied concept in the context of conspiratorial beliefs, while the negative mutual relationship seems well-evidenced. On the other hand, the evidence on the link with the critical thinking (readiness to consider, reason, appraise, review, and interpret facts to update existing beliefs) has only started to emerge in the last years. Finally, scientific reasoning (ability to apply principles of scientific inquiry to formulate, test, revise and update knowledge in accordance with new evidence), is the least studied of the three cognitive styles in relation to conspiracy theories. The present article will: (a) revise the (lack of) scientific consensus on the definitional and conceptual aspects (by providing theoretical framework); (b) summarize the state of the art on the subject (by providing overview of empirical evidence); (c) discuss directions for future research (especially in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic). An integrated perspective on the relationship between conspiratorial beliefs and cognitive styles of people, may serve to inspire future behavioral interventions.

Analytic Thinking and Political Orientation in the Corona Crisis

With much unknown about the new coronavirus, the scientific consensus is that human hosts are crucial to its spread and reproduction-the more people behave like regular socializing beings they are, the more likely it is that the virus will propagate. Hence, many nations worldwide have mandated physical-distancing measures. In the current preregistered research, we focus on examining two factors that may help explain differences in adherence to COVID-19 preventive behaviors and policy support across different countries-political orientation and analytic thinking. We positioned our research within the dual-process framework of human reasoning and investigated the role of cognitive reflection, open-minded thinking, and political ideology in determining COVID-19 responsible behavior (physical distancing and maintaining hygiene) and support for restrictive COVID-19 policies on a sample of 12,490 participants from 17 countries. We have not been able to detect substantial relationships of political orientation with preventive behaviors and policy support, and overall found no reliable evidence of politicization, nor polarization regarding the issue. The results of structural equation modeling showed that the inclination towards COVID-19 preventive measures and their endorsement were defined primarily by the tendency of open-minded thinking. Specifically, open-minded thinking was shown to be a predictor of all three criteria-avoiding physical contact, maintaining physical hygiene, and supporting COVID-19 restrictive mitigation policies. Cognitive reflection was predictive of lesser adherence to stricter hygiene and only very weakly predictive of lesser policy support. Furthermore, there was no evidence of these effects varying across political contexts. The mediation analysis suggested a partial mediation effect of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs on the relationships of open-mindedness and cognitive reflection with physical distancing (but not adherence to stricter hygiene) and COVID-19 policy support, albeit very small and significant primarily due to sample size. There was also no evidence of these effects varying across political contexts. Finally, we have not been able to find strong evidence of political orientation modifying the relationship between analytical thinking and COVID-19 behaviors and policy support, although we explored the pattern of these effects in the US and Canadian samples for exploratory purposes and comparison with other similar studies.

Mistrust and Beliefs in Conspiracy Theories Differently Mediate the Effects of Psychological Factors on Propensity for COVID-19 Vaccine

Vaccination is considered a key factor in the sanitary resolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, vaccine hesitancy can undermine its diffusion with severe consequences on global health. While beliefs in conspiracy theories, mistrust in science and in policymakers, and mistrust in official information channels may also increment vaccine hesitancy, understanding their psychological causes could improve our capacity to respond to the pandemic. Thus, we designed a cross-sectional study with the aim of probing vaccine propensity in the Italian population and explored its relationship with sociodemographic and psychological variables, and with misbeliefs in COVID-19. A battery of questionnaires was administered to a sample of 374 Italian adults during the first national lockdown (April 2020). The materials included an original instrument—Beliefs in COVID-19 Inventory—and questionnaires measuring perceived stress, anxiety, death anxiety, psychological distress, psychoticism, paranoia, anger, and somatization. The exploratory factor analysis (EFA) on Beliefs in COVID-19 suggested the existence of three factors: belief in conspiracy theories, mistrust in medical information, and mistrust in medicine and science. These factors were positively correlated with female sex, age, religious beliefs, psychiatric conditions, and psychological variables, while negatively correlated with education levels. We conducted a mediation analysis by means of a structural equation model, including psychological factors as predictors, beliefs in COVID-19 scales as mediators, and vaccine propensity as an outcome. The model showed that death anxiety had a direct positive effect on the propensity to get vaccinated. It also showed that death anxiety reduced the propensity to get vaccinated through a mediated path in believing in conspiracy theories, whereas paranoia was linked to a reduction in vaccination adherence with the mediation effect of mistrust in medical science. Psychological distress reduced vaccination propensity by increasing both conspiracy beliefs and mistrust. On the other hand, anxiety increased the propensity to get vaccinated through a decrease in both belief in conspiracy theories and mistrust in science. Our results suggest that psychological dimensions are differentially related to belief in conspiracy theories, to mistrust in science, and to the propensity to get vaccinated. Based on this result, we propose an original interpretation of how conspiracy beliefs build on a paranoid and suspicious attitude. We also discuss the possible clinical implications of treatment for such pathological beliefs.

Are COVID-19 conspiracies a threat to public health? Psychological characteristics and health protective behaviours of believers

We tested the link between COVID‐19 conspiracy theories and health protective behaviours in three studies: one at the onset of the pandemic in the United Kingdom (UK), a second just before the first national lockdown, and a third during that lockdown (N = 302, 404 and 399). We focused on conspiracy theories that did not deny the existence of COVID‐19 and evaluated the extent to which they predicted a range of health protective behaviours, before and after controlling for psychological and sociodemographic characteristics associated with conspiracy theory belief. COVID‐19 conspiracy beliefs were positively correlated with beliefs in other unrelated conspiracies and a general conspiracy mind‐set, and negatively correlated with trust in government and a tendency towards analytical thinking (vs. intuitive thinking). Unexpectedly, COVID‐19 conspiracy believers adhered to basic health guidelines and advanced health protective measures as strictly as non‐believers. Conspiracy believers were, however, less willing to install the contact‐tracing app, get tested for and vaccinated against COVID‐19, and were more likely to share COVID‐19 misinformation—all of which might undermine public health initiatives. Study 3 showed conspiracy theory believers were less willing to undertake health protective behaviours that were outside of their personal control, perceiving these as having a negative balance of risks and benefits. We discuss models explaining conspiracy beliefs and health protective behaviours, and suggest practical recommendations for public health initiatives.

Coronavirus conspiracy beliefs in the German-speaking general population: endorsement rates and links to reasoning biases and paranoia

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus-related conspiracy theories (CT) have been found to be associated with fewer pandemic containment-focused behaviors. It is therefore important to evaluate associated cognitive factors. We aimed to obtain first endorsement rate estimates of coronavirus-related conspiracy beliefs in a German-speaking general population sample and investigate whether delusion-related reasoning biases and paranoid ideation are associated with such beliefs.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional non-probability online study, quota-sampled for age and gender, with 1684 adults from Germany and German-speaking Switzerland. We assessed general and specific coronavirus conspiracy beliefs, reasoning biases [jumping-to-conclusions bias (JTC), liberal acceptance bias (LA), bias against disconfirmatory evidence (BADE), possibility of being mistaken (PM)], and paranoid ideation, using established experimental paradigms and self-report questionnaires.

RESULTS

Around 10% of our sample endorsed coronavirus-related CT beliefs at least strongly, and another 20% to some degree. Overall endorsement was similar to levels observed in a UK-based study (Freeman et al., 2020b). Higher levels of conspiracy belief endorsement were associated with greater JTC, greater LA, greater BADE, higher PM, and greater paranoid ideation. Associations were mostly small to moderate and best described by non-linear relationships.

CONCLUSIONS

A noticeable proportion of our sample recruited in Germany and German-speaking Switzerland endorsed coronavirus conspiracy beliefs strongly or to some degree. These beliefs are associated with reasoning biases studied in delusion research. The non-probability sampling approach limits the generalizability of findings. Future longitudinal and experimental studies investigating conspiracy beliefs along the lines of reasoning are encouraged to validate reasoning aberrations as risk factors.

COVID-19-related conspiracy beliefs and their relationship with perceived stress and pre-existing conspiracy beliefs

Previous studies have down that erroneous Conspiracy Theory (CT) beliefs develop more strongly in people who have underlying conspiratorial reasoning styles and psychopathological traits and particularly when they are faced with stressful external events (Swami et al., 2013; van Prooijen, 2018). In this study, we test this proposition by examining the individual differences associated with the development of COVID-19-related CT beliefs during the pandemic. A total of 660 adults completed a survey that captured COVID–related CT beliefs and broader conspiracy beliefs, education, perceived stress and attitudes towards government responses. The results showed that COVID-19 related CT beliefs were: strongly related to broader CT beliefs, higher in those with lower levels of education; and, positively (although weakly) correlated with more negative attitudes towards government responses. However, no relationship was found between COVID-19 beliefs and self-reported stress. These findings hold implications for why some people are more likely to be resistant to public health interventions relating to COVID-19. The findings encourage more detailed exploration of the causes and sources of CTs and, in particular, the role of social media use and other information sources in the development and perpetuation of health-related CT beliefs.