The evolution of the prevalence of classical scrapie in sheep in Great Britain using surveillance data between 2005 and 2012

Selective Breeding for Disease-Resistant PRNP Variants to Manage Chronic Wasting Disease in Farmed Whitetail Deer

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) of cervids caused by a misfolded variant of the normal cellular prion protein, and it is closely related to sheep scrapie. Variations in a host's prion gene, PRNP, and its primary protein structure dramatically affect susceptibility to specific prion disorders, and breeding for PRNP variants that prevent scrapie infection has led to steep declines in the disease in North American and European sheep. While resistant alleles have been identified in cervids, a PRNP variant that completely prevents CWD has not yet been identified. Thus, control of the disease in farmed herds traditionally relies on quarantine and depopulation. In CWD-endemic areas, depopulation of private herds becomes challenging to justify, leading to opportunities to manage the disease in situ. We developed a selective breeding program for farmed white-tailed deer in a high-prevalence CWD-endemic area which focused on reducing frequencies of highly susceptible PRNP variants and introducing animals with less susceptible variants. With the use of newly developed primers, we found that breeding followed predictable Mendelian inheritance, and early data support our project's utility in reducing CWD prevalence. This project represents a novel approach to CWD management, with future efforts building on these findings.

Scientific report on the analysis of the 2-year compulsory intensified monitoring of atypical scrapie

The European Commission asked EFSA whether the scientific data on the 2-year intensified monitoring in atypical scrapie (AS) outbreaks (2013-2020) provide any evidence on the contagiousness of AS, and whether they added any new knowledge on the epidemiology of AS. An ad hoc data set from intensified monitoring in 22 countries with index case/s of AS in sheep and/or goats (742 flocks from 20 countries, 76 herds from 11 countries) was analysed. No secondary cases were confirmed in goat herds, while 35 secondary cases were confirmed in 28 sheep flocks from eight countries. The results of the calculated design prevalence and of a model simulation indicated that the intensified monitoring had limited ability to detect AS, with no difference between countries with or without secondary cases. A regression model showed an increased, but not statistically significant, prevalence (adjusted by surveillance stream) of secondary cases in infected flocks compared with that of index cases in the non-infected flocks (general population). A simulation model of within-flock transmission, comparing a contagious (i.e. transmissible between animals under natural conditions) with a non-contagious scenario, produced a better fit of the observed data with the non-contagious scenario, in which each sheep in a flock had the same probability of developing AS in the first year of life. Based on the analyses performed, and considering uncertainties and data limitations, it was concluded that there is no new evidence that AS can be transmitted between animals under natural conditions, and it is considered more likely (subjective probability range 50-66%) that AS is a non-contagious, rather than a contagious disease. The analysis of the data of the EU intensified monitoring in atypical scrapie infected flocks/herds confirmed some of the known epidemiological features of AS but identified that major knowledge gaps still remain.

Detection by real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC), ELISA, and IHC of chronic wasting disease prion in lymph nodes from Pennsylvania white-tailed deer with specific PRNP genotypes

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion-mediated, transmissible disease of cervids, including deer (Odocoileus spp.), which is characterized by spongiform encephalopathy and death of the prion-infected animals. Official surveillance in the United States using immunohistochemistry (IHC) and ELISA entails the laborious collection of lymphoid and/or brainstem tissue after death. New, highly sensitive prion detection methods, such as real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC), have shown promise in detecting abnormal prions from both antemortem and postmortem specimens. We compared RT-QuIC with ELISA and IHC for CWD detection utilizing deer retropharyngeal lymph node (RLN) tissues in a diagnostic laboratory setting. The RLNs were collected postmortem from hunter-harvested animals. RT-QuIC showed 100% sensitivity and specificity for 50 deer RLN (35 positive by both IHC and ELISA, 15 negative) included in our study. All deer were also genotyped for PRNP polymorphism. Most deer were homozygous at codons 95, 96, 116, and 226 (QQ/GG/AA/QQ genotype, with frequency 0.86), which are the codons implicated in disease susceptibility. Heterozygosity was noticed in Pennsylvania deer, albeit at a very low frequency, for codons 95GS (0.06) and 96QH (0.08), but deer with these genotypes were still found to be CWD prion-infected.

White-tailed deer S96 prion protein does not support stable in vitro propagation of most common CWD strains

PrP^C variation at residue 96 (G/S) plays an important role in the epidemiology of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in exposed white-tailed deer populations. In vivo studies have demonstrated the protective effect of serine at codon 96, which hinders the propagation of common CWD strains when expressed in homozygosis and increases the survival period of S96/wt heterozygous deer after challenge with CWD. Previous in vitro studies of the transmission barrier suggested that following a single amplification step, wt and S96 PrP^C were equally susceptible to misfolding when seeded with various CWD prions. When we performed serial prion amplification in vitro using S96-PrP^C, we observed a reduction in the efficiency of propagation with the Wisc-1 or CWD2 strains, suggesting these strains cannot stably template their conformations on this PrP^C once the primary sequence has changed after the first round of replication. Our data shows the S96-PrP^C polymorphism is detrimental to prion conversion of some CWD strains. These data suggests that deer homozygous for S96-PrP^C may not sustain prion transmission as compared to a deer expressing G96-PrP^C.

Will there be any more classical scrapie cases in sheep in Great Britain? A modelling study to predict future cases

The aim of this study was to apply a back-calculation model to Great Britain (GB) classical scrapie surveillance data, and use this model to estimate how many more cases might be expected, and over what time frame these cases might occur. A back-calculation model was applied to scrapie surveillance data between 2005 and 2019 to estimate the annual rate of decline of classical scrapie. This rate was then extrapolated to predict the number of future cases each year going forward. The model shows that there may be yet further cases of classical scrapie in GB. These will most likely occur in the fallen stock scheme, with approximately a 25% probability of at least 1 further scrapie positive, with a very low probability (~0.2%) of having up to three additional scrapie positives. This highlights the difficulty of completely eliminating all further cases, even in the presence of very effective control measures.

Estimating relative CWD susceptibility and disease progression in farmed white-tailed deer with rare PRNP alleles

Chronic wasting disease is a prion disease affecting both free-ranging and farmed cervids in North America and Scandinavia. A range of cervid species have been found to be susceptible, each with variations in the gene for the normal prion protein, PRNP, reportedly influencing both disease susceptibility and progression in the respective hosts. Despite the finding of several different PRNP alleles in white-tailed deer, the majority of past research has focused on two of the more common alleles identified-the 96G and 96S alleles. In the present study, we evaluate both infection status and disease stage in nearly 2100 farmed deer depopulated in the United States and Canada, including 714 CWD-positive deer and correlate our findings with PRNP genotype, including the more rare 95H, 116G, and 226K alleles. We found significant differences in either likelihood of being found infected or disease stage (and in many cases both) at the time of depopulation in all genotypes present, relative to the most common 96GG genotype. Despite high prevalence in many of the herds examined, infection was not found in several of the reported genotypes. These findings suggest that additional research is necessary to more properly define the role that these genotypes may play in managing CWD in both farmed and free-ranging white-tailed deer, with consideration for factors including relative fitness levels, incubation periods, and the kinetics of shedding in animals with these rare genotypes.

The effect of genetic susceptibility and targeting of sampling on the sensitivity of the surveillance system and certainty-of-freedom for classical scrapie in Finland in 2008-2014

We applied scenario tree modeling to study how the genetic distribution of the sheep population in Finland and the focusing on fallen stock would influence the surveillance sensitivity of scrapie. To incorporate the unevenly distributed susceptibility into the estimation we used data from GB where the genetic distribution and scrapie occurrence have been documented in both normally slaughtered and deceased animals. Finland's sheep population is more susceptible to scrapie than the sheep population in GB and surveillance is concentrated on fallen stock. As a result, there is high systemic sensitivity in Finland even with the moderate number of studied animals. The certainty of the freedom-of-disease status is clearly elevated by the low probability of previous disease occurrence and low probability of introduction. The results highlight the need to change the concept from surveillance system sensitivity to freedom-of-disease status and to also consider the risk of introduction and the cumulative nature of the disease prevalence information due repeated surveillance efforts.

Chronic wasting disease management in ranched elk using rectal biopsy testing

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) affecting members of the cervid species, and is one of the few TSEs with an expanding geographic range. Diagnostic limitations, efficient transmission, and the movement of infected animals are important contributing factors in the ongoing spread of disease. Managing CWD in affected populations has proven difficult, relying on population reduction in the case of wild deer and elk, or quarantine and depopulation in farmed cervids. In the present study, we evaluated the effectiveness of managing endemic CWD in a closed elk herd using antemortem sampling combined with both conventional and experimental diagnostic testing, and selective, targeted culling of infected animals. We hypothesized that the real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) assay, a developing amplification assay, would offer greater detection capabilities over immunohistochemistry (IHC) in the identification of infected animals using recto-anal mucosa associated lymphoid tissue (RAMALT). We further sought to develop a better understanding of CWD epidemiology in elk with various PRNP alleles, and predicted that CWD prevalence would decrease with targeted culling. We found that RT-QuIC identified significantly more CWD-positive animals than IHC using RAMALT tissues (121 vs. 86, respectively, out of 553 unique animals), and that longstanding disease presence was associated with an increasing frequency of less susceptible PRNP alleles. Prevalence of CWD increased significantly over the first two years of the study, implying that refinements in our management strategy are necessary to reduce the prevalence of CWD in this herd.

Scientific opinion on chronic wasting disease (II)

The European Commission asked EFSA for a scientific opinion on chronic wasting disease in two parts. Part one, on surveillance, animal health risk-based measures and public health risks, was published in January 2017. This opinion (part two) addresses the remaining Terms of Reference, namely, 'are the conclusions and recommendations in the EFSA opinion of June 2004 on diagnostic methods for chronic wasting disease still valid? If not, an update should be provided', and 'update the conclusions of the 2010 EFSA opinion on the results of the European Union survey on chronic wasting disease in cervids, as regards its occurrence in the cervid population in the European Union'. Data on the performance of authorised rapid tests in North America are not comprehensive, and are more limited than those available for the tests approved for statutory transmissible spongiform encephalopathies surveillance applications in cattle and sheep. There are no data directly comparing available rapid test performances in cervids. The experience in Norway shows that the Bio-Rad TeSeE™ SAP test, immunohistochemistry and western blotting have detected reindeer, moose and red deer cases. It was shown that testing both brainstem and lymphoid tissue from each animal increases the surveillance sensitivity. Shortcomings in the previous EU survey limited the reliability of inferences that could be made about the potential disease occurrence in Europe. Subsequently, testing activity in Europe was low, until the detection of the disease in Norway, triggering substantial testing efforts in that country. Available data neither support nor refute the conclusion that chronic wasting disease does not occur widely in the EU and do not preclude the possibility that the disease was present in Europe before the survey was conducted. It appears plausible that chronic wasting disease could have become established in Norway more than a decade ago.

Evidence for more cost-effective surveillance options for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and scrapie in Great Britain

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) are an important public health concern. Since the emergence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during the 1980s and its link with human Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, active surveillance has been a key element of the European Union's TSE control strategy. Success of this strategy means that now, very few cases are detected compared with the number of animals tested. Refining surveillance strategies would enable resources to be redirected towards other public health priorities. Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed on several alternative strategies involving reducing the number of animals tested for BSE and scrapie in Great Britain and, for scrapie, varying the ratio of sheep sampled in the abattoir to fallen stock (which died on the farm). The most cost-effective strategy modelled for BSE involved reducing the proportion of fallen stock tested from 100% to 75%, producing a cost saving of ca GBP 700,000 per annum. If 50% of fallen stock were tested, a saving of ca GBP 1.4 million per annum could be achieved. However, these reductions are predicted to increase the period before surveillance can detect an outbreak. For scrapie, reducing the proportion of abattoir samples was the most cost-effective strategy modelled, with limited impact on surveillance effectiveness.

Estimating chronic wasting disease susceptibility in cervids using real-time quaking-induced conversion

In mammals, susceptibility to prion infection is primarily modulated by the host's cellular prion protein (PrP^C) sequence. In the sheep scrapie model, a graded scale of susceptibility has been established both in vivo and in vitro based on PrP^C amino acids 136, 154 and 171, leading to global breeding programmes to reduce the prevalence of scrapie in sheep. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) resistance in cervids is often characterized as decreased prevalence and/or protracted disease progression in individuals with specific alleles; at present, no PrP^C allele conferring absolute resistance in cervids has been identified. To model the susceptibility of various naturally occurring and hypothetical cervid PrP^C alleles in vitro, we compared the amplification rates and amyloid extension efficiencies of eight distinct CWD isolates in recombinant cervid PrP^C substrates using real-time quaking-induced conversion. We hypothesized that the in vitro conversion characteristics of these isolates in cervid substrates would correlate to in vivo susceptibility - permitting susceptibility prediction for the rare alleles found in nature. We also predicted that hypothetical alleles with multiple resistance-associated codons would be more resistant to in vitro conversion than natural alleles with a single resistant codon. Our studies demonstrate that in vitro conversion metrics align with in vivo susceptibility, and that alleles with multiple amino acid substitutions, each influencing resistance independently, do not necessarily contribute additively to conversion resistance. Importantly, we found that the naturally occurring whitetail deer QGAK substrate exhibited the slowest amplification rate among those evaluated, suggesting that further investigation of this allele and its resistance in vivo is warranted.

Identification of amino acid variation in the prion protein associated with classical scrapie in Canadian dairy goats

BACKGROUND

A clear association of amino acid variation in the prion protein gene (PRNP) with susceptibility and resistance to classical scrapie exists in sheep, but not in goats. In this study we examined DNA sequence variation in the PRNP of 149 animals from two scrapie-infected herds of Saanen dairy goats, and identified 6 non-synonymous variants in the coding region.

RESULTS

In the larger herd, all of the 54 scrapie-affected goats tested had at least one allele with the arginine (R) codon at position 211, with 52 being homozygous for that variant. No animal homozygous for the glutamine (Q) codon at 211 were affected and only two heterozygotes (R/Q) were affected. A weak association was found at position 146 and no significant associations were found with amino acid variation at the remaining four variant positions (142, 143, 222 and 240), however, the allelic variation was low. Similar patterns were observed in the second scrapie-affected herd.

CONCLUSION

We also evaluated previous studies on goat herds affected with scrapie and this relationship of R susceptibility and Q resistance at 211 was present independent of the genotypes at the other positions including 222. The fact that glutamine at 211 provides a significant protective property to scrapie irrespective of the other positions could be important for breeding strategies aimed at improving herd resistance to scrapie, while maintaining important productivity traits.

Epidemiological investigations on the potential transmissibility of a rare disease: the case of atypical scrapie in Great Britain

Multiple cases of atypical scrapie in the same holding and co-existence with classical scrapie have been reported in Great Britain. A two-stage simulation tool was developed by combining a sampling algorithm and a hierarchical Bayesian model to simulate the number of positive cases of atypical scrapie from: (i) random sampling and (ii) using the actual sampled population in Great Britain, being the output probability of detection of flocks with one and more cases. Cluster analysis was conducted to assess the level of geographical over- and under-sampling over the years. The probability of detecting at least two cases of atypical scrapie in the same holding is much lower in simulated random data than in simulated actual data for all scenarios. Sampling bias in the selection of sheep for testing led to multiple sampling from fewer but larger holdings, Scotland, and areas of Wales were under-sampled and the South-West and East of England oversampled. The pattern of atypical scrapie cases observed is unlikely to be explained by a multi-case event epidemiologically linked. The co-existence of classical and atypical scrapie is a rare event with 19 holdings detected in GB and does not suggest an epidemiological link between the two types of disease.

Antemortem Detection of Chronic Wasting Disease Prions in Nasal Brush Collections and Rectal Biopsy Specimens from White-Tailed Deer by Real-Time Quaking-Induced Conversion

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy of cervids, was first documented nearly 50 years ago in Colorado and Wyoming and has since spread to cervids in 23 states, two Canadian provinces, and the Republic of Korea. The expansion of this disease makes the development of sensitive diagnostic assays and antemortem sampling techniques crucial for the mitigation of its spread; this is especially true in cases of relocation/reintroduction of farmed or free-ranging deer and elk or surveillance studies of private or protected herds, where depopulation is contraindicated. This study sought to evaluate the sensitivity of the real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) assay by using recto-anal mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (RAMALT) biopsy specimens and nasal brush samples collected antemortem from farmed white-tailed deer (n= 409). Antemortem findings were then compared to results from ante- and postmortem samples (RAMALT, brainstem, and medial retropharyngeal lymph nodes) evaluated by using the current gold standardin vitroassay, immunohistochemistry (IHC) analysis. We hypothesized that the sensitivity of RT-QuIC would be comparable to IHC analysis in antemortem tissues and would correlate with both the genotype and the stage of clinical disease. Our results showed that RAMALT testing by RT-QuIC assay had the highest sensitivity (69.8%) compared to that of postmortem testing, with a specificity of >93.9%. These data suggest that RT-QuIC, like IHC analysis, is an effective assay for detection of PrP(CWD)in rectal biopsy specimens and other antemortem samples and, with further research to identify more sensitive tissues, bodily fluids, or experimental conditions, has potential for large-scale and rapid automated testing for CWD diagnosis.