Predicting changing malaria risk after expanded insecticide-treated net coverage in Africa

An analytically tractable, age-structured model of the impact of vector control on mosquito-transmitted infections

Vector control is a vital tool utilised by malaria control and elimination programmes worldwide, and as such it is important that we can accurately quantify the expected public health impact of these methods. There are very few previous models that consider vector-control-induced changes in the age-structure of the vector population and the resulting impact on transmission. We analytically derive the steady-state solution of a novel age-structured deterministic compartmental model describing the mosquito feeding cycle, with mosquito age represented discretely by parity-the number of cycles (or successful bloodmeals) completed. Our key model output comprises an explicit, analytically tractable solution that can be used to directly quantify key transmission statistics, such as the effective reproductive ratio under control, Rc, and investigate the age-structured impact of vector control. Application of this model reinforces current knowledge that adult-acting interventions, such as indoor residual spraying of insecticides (IRS) or long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), can be highly effective at reducing transmission, due to the dual effects of repelling and killing mosquitoes. We also demonstrate how larval measures can be implemented in addition to adult-acting measures to reduce Rc and mitigate the impact of waning insecticidal efficacy, as well as how mid-ranges of LLIN coverage are likely to experience the largest effect of reduced net integrity on transmission. We conclude that whilst well-maintained adult-acting vector control measures are substantially more effective than larval-based interventions, incorporating larval control in existing LLIN or IRS programmes could substantially reduce transmission and help mitigate any waning effects of adult-acting measures.

An Overview of Malaria Transmission Mechanisms, Control, and Modeling

In sub-Saharan Africa, malaria is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity. As a result of the interplay between many factors, the control of this disease can be challenging. However, few studies have demonstrated malaria's complexity, control, and modeling although this perspective could lead to effective policy recommendations. This paper aims to be a didactic material providing the reader with an overview of malaria. More importantly, using a system approach lens, we intend to highlight the debated topics and the multifaceted thematic aspects of malaria transmission mechanisms, while showing the control approaches used as well as the model supporting the dynamics of malaria. As there is a large amount of information on each subject, we have attempted to provide a basic understanding of malaria that needs to be further developed. Nevertheless, this study illustrates the importance of using a multidisciplinary approach to designing next-generation malaria control policies.

Factors related to human-vector contact that modify the likelihood of malaria transmission during a contained Plasmodium falciparum outbreak in Praia, Cabo Verde

Background

Determining the reproductive rate and how it varies over time and space (RT) provides important insight to understand transmission of a given disease and inform optimal strategies for controlling or eliminating it. Estimating RT for malaria is difficult partly due to the widespread use of interventions and immunity to disease masking incident infections. A malaria outbreak in Praia, Cabo Verde in 2017 provided a unique opportunity to estimate RT directly, providing a proxy for the intensity of vector-human contact and measure the impact of vector control measures.

Methods

Out of 442 confirmed malaria cases reported in 2017 in Praia, 321 (73%) were geolocated and informed this analysis. RT was calculated using the joint likelihood of transmission between two cases, based on the time (serial interval) and physical distance (spatial interval) between them. Log-linear regression was used to estimate factors associated with changes in RT, including the impact of vector control interventions. A geostatistical model was developed to highlight areas receptive to transmission where vector control activities could be focused in future to prevent or interrupt transmission.

Results

The RT from individual cases ranged between 0 and 11 with a median serial- and spatial-interval of 34 days [interquartile range (IQR): 17-52] and 1,347 m (IQR: 832-1,985 m), respectively. The number of households receiving indoor residual spraying (IRS) 4 weeks prior was associated with a reduction in RT by 0.84 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80-0.89; p-value <0.001] in the peak-and post-epidemic compared to the pre-epidemic period.

Conclusions

Identifying the effect of reduced human-vector contact through IRS is essential to determining optimal intervention strategies that modify the likelihood of malaria transmission and can inform optimal intervention strategies to accelerate time to elimination. The distance within which two cases are plausibly linked is important for the potential scale of any reactive interventions as well as classifying infections as imported or introduced and confirming malaria elimination.

Significant decline of malaria incidence in a low socioeconomic area in the southeast of Iran: 10 years field assessment during malaria elimination programme

Although malaria burden and its active foci have sharply declined after the implementation of elimination programme since 2010, it is still considered as a major public health problem in southeast Iran. This descriptive-analytical study aimed to determine 10-years of malaria epidemiological trends in Bashagard County. Data were collected from 7 selected malarious region of the county based on active and passive surveillance of clinical cases. For diagnosis of malaria, the examination of microscopic slides and rapid diagnostic test, were used. In total, 237 malaria cases were found from 2009 to 2018. Plasmodium vivax was the dominant parasite species and identified in 232 (97.9%) individuals. Males were infected more than females and the majority of malaria cases (67.4%) were recorded from rural areas. Although about 98% of malaria cases were indigenous, they have decreased form 200 cases in 2009 to zero indigenous transmission in 2018. During the study period, malaria cases had decreased significantly by about 99% and the incidence rate had declined from 5.47/1000 cases in 2009 to 0.002/1000 in 2018. The incidence of malaria, especially indigenous cases, in Bashagard County has decreased dramatically in the past 10 years. However, there is still probability of malaria re-introduction and outbreak in the county due to climatical and geographical conditions. Therefore, it is necessary to implement an active surveillance system to detect and treat malaria cases quickly, during the elimination phase in this county.

Long-lasting insecticidal nets and the quest for malaria eradication: a mathematical modeling approach

Recent dramatic declines in global malaria burden and mortality can be largely attributed to the large-scale deployment of insecticidal-based measures, namely long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying. However, the sustainability of these gains, and the feasibility of global malaria eradication by 2040, may be affected by increasing insecticide resistance among the Anopheles malaria vector. We employ a new differential-equations based mathematical model, which incorporates the full, weather-dependent mosquito lifecycle, to assess the population-level impact of the large-scale use of LLINs, under different levels of Anopheles pyrethroid insecticide resistance, on malaria transmission dynamics and control in a community. Moreover, we describe the bednet-mosquito interaction using parameters that can be estimated from the large experimental hut trial literature under varying levels of effective pyrethroid resistance. An expression for the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], as a function of population-level bednet coverage, is derived. It is shown, owing to the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, that [Formula: see text] must be pushed appreciably below 1 to eliminate malaria in endemic areas, potentially complicating eradication efforts. Numerical simulations of the model suggest that, when the baseline [Formula: see text] is high (corresponding roughly to holoendemic malaria), very high bednet coverage with highly effective nets is necessary to approach conditions for malaria elimination. Further, while >50% bednet coverage is likely sufficient to strongly control or eliminate malaria from areas with a mesoendemic malaria baseline, pyrethroid resistance could undermine control and elimination efforts even in this setting. Our simulations show that pyrethroid resistance in mosquitoes appreciably reduces bednet effectiveness across parameter space. This modeling study also suggests that increasing pre-bloodmeal deterrence of mosquitoes (deterring them from entry into protected homes) actually hampers elimination efforts, as it may focus mosquito biting onto a smaller unprotected host subpopulation. Finally, we observe that temperature affects malaria potential independently of bednet coverage and pyrethroid-resistance levels, with both climate change and pyrethroid resistance posing future threats to malaria control.

Synergy and timing: a concurrent mass medical campaign predicted to augment indoor residual spraying for malaria

Background

Control programmes for high burden countries are tasked with charting effective multi-year strategies for malaria control within significant resource constraints. Synergies between different control tools, in which more than additive benefit accrues from interventions used together, are of interest because they may be used to obtain savings or to maximize health impact per expenditure. One commonly used intervention in sub-Saharan Africa is indoor residual spraying (IRS), typically deployed through a mass campaign. While possible synergies between IRS and long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) have been investigated in multiple transmission settings, coordinated synergy between IRS and other mass medical distribution campaigns have not attracted much attention. Recently, a strong timing-dependent synergy between an IRS campaign and a mass drug administration (MDA) was theoretically quantified. These synergistic benefits likely differ across settings depending on transmission intensity and its overall seasonal pattern.

Methods

High coverage interventions are modelled in different transmission environments using two methods: a Ross–Macdonald model variant and openmalaria simulations. The impact of each intervention strategy was measured through its ability to prevent host infections over time, and the effects were compared to the baseline case of deploying interventions in isolation.

Results

By modelling IRS and MDA together and varying their deployment times, a strong synergy was found when the administered interventions overlapped. The added benefit of co-timed interventions was robust to differences in the models. In the Ross–Macdonald model, the impact compared was roughly double the sequential interventions in most transmission settings. Openmalaria simulations of this medical control augmentation of an IRS campaign show an even stronger response with the same timing relationship.

Conclusions

The strong synergies found for these control tools between the complementary interventions demonstrate a general feature of effective concurrent campaign-style vector and medical interventions. A mass treatment campaign is normally short-lived, especially in higher transmission settings. When co-timed, the rapid clearing of the host parasite reservoir via chemotherapy is protected from resurgence by the longer duration of the vector control. An effective synchronous treatment campaign has the potential to greatly augment the impact of indoor residual spraying. Mass screening and treatment (MSAT) with highly sensitive rapid diagnostic tests may demonstrate a comparable trend while mass LLIN campaigns may similarly coordinate with MDA/MSAT.

Modelling the effect of bednet coverage on malaria transmission in South Sudan

A campaign for malaria control, using Long Lasting Insecticide Nets (LLINs) was launched in South Sudan in 2009. The success of such a campaign often depends upon adequate available resources and reliable surveillance data which help officials understand existing infections. An optimal allocation of resources for malaria control at a sub-national scale is therefore paramount to the success of efforts to reduce malaria prevalence. In this paper, we extend an existing SIR mathematical model to capture the effect of LLINs on malaria transmission. Available data on malaria is utilized to determine realistic parameter values of this model using a Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Then, we explore the parasite prevalence on a continued rollout of LLINs in three different settings in order to create a sub-national projection of malaria. Further, we calculate the model’s basic reproductive number and study its sensitivity to LLINs’ coverage and its efficacy. From the numerical simulation results, we notice a basic reproduction number, R0, confirming a substantial increase of incidence cases if no form of intervention takes place in the community. This work indicates that an effective use of LLINs may reduce R0 and hence malaria transmission. We hope that this study will provide a basis for recommending a scaling-up of the entry point of LLINs’ distribution that targets households in areas at risk of malaria.

Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review

Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the "million-murdering Death" of malaria.

Medical and entomological malarial interventions, a comparison and synergy of two control measures using a Ross/Macdonald model variant and openmalaria simulation

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An adaptation of the classical Ross–Macdonald model for vector disease transmission to incorporate time-dependent medical and entomological control measures.

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Modeling both mass drug administration and indoor residual spraying campaigns, the synchronous deployment of both yields a synergy where the impact of a joint intervention exceeds that of isolated campaigns.

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Openmalaria simulations, separately run, indicate comparable intervention impacts to the Ross/Macdonald model variant.

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The vector reservoir of parasitemia is found to be labile, and this dictates the impacts of the medical and entomological interventions.

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A scaling-law level of analysis is performed that estimates the rebound of infections in a community after interventions expire, and not only do higher transmission environments bounce back to prevalent infections faster, communities with stronger interventions are shown to have a slower relapse to parasitemia.

Using an established Ross/Macdonald model variant for mosquito-born parasite transmission, we extend the formalism to simply incorporate time-dependent control measures. In particular, two interventions are considered, mass drug administration (MDA) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), whose individual intensities during their respective campaigns are set to the same intervention-reduced reproductive number R₀. The impacts of these interventions, measured as each campaign’s ability over time to reduce infections in a community, are found based on the transmission setting, coverage, and their associated durations. These impacts are compared for both interventions and their joint deployment. Synchronous campaigns of IRS deployed with MDA have a cooperative, synergistic effect whose impact exceeds that when the campaigns are deployed in isolation. Simulations with openmalaria, with its more complex model of transmission, are separately performed and show a similar impact enhancement with these interventions. A new, associated analysis yields simple scaling relationships that estimate the dynamical resurgence time, post-intervention, to infection proliferation in a community.

Sero-catalytic and Antibody Acquisition Models to Estimate Differing Malaria Transmission Intensities in Western Kenya

We sought to identify a subset of Plasmodium falciparum antibody targets that would inform monitoring efforts needed to eliminate malaria in high transmission settings. IgG antibodies to 28 recombinant Pf antigens were measured in residents of two communities in western Kenya examined in 2003 and 2013, when the respective prevalence of asymptomatic parasitemia among children was 81 and 15 percent by microscopy. Annual seroconversion rates based on a sero-catalytic model that dichotomised antibody values to negative versus positive showed that rates were higher in 2003 than 2013 for 1 pre-erythrocytic and 7 blood-stage antigens. Antibody acquisition models that considered antibody levels as continuous variables showed that age-related antibody levels to Circumsporozoite Protein and 10 merozoite proteins increased at different rates with age in 2003 versus 2013. Both models found that antibodies to 5 proteins of the Merozoite Surface Protein 1 complex were differentially acquired between the cohorts, and that changes in antibody levels to Apical Membrane Antigen 1 suggested a decrease in transmission that occurred ~10 years before 2013. Further studies evaluating antibodies to this subset of Pf antigens as biomarkers of malaria exposure and naturally acquired immunity are warranted in endemic settings where transmission has been reduced but persists.

Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions

There is a long history of considering the constituent components of malaria risk and the malaria transmission cycle via the use of mathematical models, yet strategic planning in endemic countries tends not to take full advantage of available disease intelligence to tailor interventions. National malaria programmes typically make operational decisions about where to implement vector control and surveillance activities based upon simple categorizations of annual parasite incidence. With technological advances, an enormous opportunity exists to better target specific malaria interventions to the places where they will have greatest impact by mapping and evaluating metrics related to a variety of risk components, each of which describes a different facet of the transmission cycle. Here, these components and their implications for operational decision-making are reviewed. For each component, related mappable malaria metrics are also described which may be measured and evaluated by malaria programmes seeking to better understand the determinants of malaria risk. Implementing tailored programmes based on knowledge of the heterogeneous distribution of the drivers of malaria transmission rather than only consideration of traditional metrics such as case incidence has the potential to result in substantial improvements in decision-making. As programmes improve their ability to prioritize their available tools to the places where evidence suggests they will be most effective, elimination aspirations may become increasingly feasible.

Modelling dynamic change of malaria transmission in holoendemic setting (Dielmo, Senegal) using longitudinal measures of antibody prevalence to Plasmodium falciparum crude schizonts extract

Background

Evaluation of local Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission has been investigated previously using the reversible catalytic model based on prevalence of antibody responses to single antigen to estimate seroconversion rates. High correlations were observed between seroconversion rates and entomological inoculation rates (EIR). However, in this model, the effects of malaria control interventions and clinical episodes on serological measurements were not assessed. This study monitors the use of antibody responses to P. falciparum crude extracts for assessing malaria transmission, compares seroconversion rates estimated from longitudinal data to those derived from cross-sectional surveys and investigates the effects of malaria control interventions on these measures in an area of declining malaria transmission. In addition, the validity of this model was evaluated by comparison with the alternative model.

Methods

Five cross-sectional surveys were carried out at the end of the wet season in Dielmo, a malaria-endemic Senegalese rural area in 2000, 2002, 2008, 2010 and 2012. Antibodies against schizonts crude extract of a local P. falciparum strain adapted to culture (Pf 07/03) were measured by ELISA. Age-specific seroprevalence model was used both for cross-sectional surveys and longitudinal data (combined data of all surveys).

Results

A total of 1504 plasma samples obtained through several years follow-up of 350 subjects was used in this study. Seroconversion rates based on P. falciparum schizonts crude extract were estimated for each cross-sectional survey and were found strongly correlated with EIR. High variability between SCRs from cross-sectional and longitudinal surveys was observed. In longitudinal studies, the alternative catalytic reversible model adjusted better with serological data than the catalytic model. Clinical malaria attacks and malaria control interventions were found to have significant effect on seroconversion.

Discussion

The results of the study suggested that crude extract was a good serological tool that could be used to assess the level of malaria exposure in areas where malaria transmission is declining. However, additional parameters such as clinical malaria and malaria control interventions must be taken into account for determining serological measurements for more accuracy in transmission assessment.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-2052-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Modelling the impact of the long-term use of insecticide-treated bed nets on Anopheles mosquito biting time

Background

Evidence of changing in biting and resting behaviour of the main malaria vectors has been mounting up in recent years as a result of selective pressure by the widespread and long-term use of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs), and indoor residual spraying. The impact of resistance behaviour on malaria intervention efficacy has important implications for the epidemiology and malaria control programmes. In this context, a theoretical framework is presented to understand the mechanisms determining the evolution of feeding behaviour under the pressure of use of ITNs.

Methods

An agent-based stochastic model simulates the impact of insecticide-treated bed nets on mosquito fitness by reducing the biting rates, as well as increasing mortality rates. The model also incorporates a heritability function that provides the necessary genetic plasticity upon which natural selection would act to maximize the fitness under the pressure of the control strategy.

Results

The asymptotic equilibrium distribution of mosquito population versus biting time is shown for several daily uses of ITNs, and the expected disruptive selection on this mosquito trait is observed in the simulations. The relative fitness of strains that bite at much earlier time with respect to the wild strains, when a threshold of about 50% of ITNs coverage highlights the hypothesis of a behaviour selection. A sensitivity analysis has shown that the top three parameters that play a dominant role on the mosquito fitness are the proportion of individuals using bed nets and its effectiveness, the impact of bed nets on mosquito oviposition, and the mosquito genetic plasticity related to changing in biting time.

Conclusion

By taking the evolutionary aspect into account, the model was able to show that the long-term use of ITNs, although representing an undisputed success in reducing malaria incidence and mortality in many affected areas, is not free of undesirable side effects. From the evolutionary point of view of the parasite virulence, it should be expected that plasmodium parasites would be under pressure to reduce their virulence. This speculative hypothesis can eventually be demonstrated in the medium to long-term use of ITNs.

The complex relationship of exposure to new Plasmodium infections and incidence of clinical malaria in Papua New Guinea

The molecular force of blood-stage infection (_molFOB) is a quantitative surrogate metric for malaria transmission at population level and for exposure at individual level. Relationships between _molFOB, parasite prevalence and clinical incidence were assessed in a treatment-to-reinfection cohort, where P.vivax (Pv) hypnozoites were eliminated in half the children by primaquine (PQ). Discounting relapses, children acquired equal numbers of new P. falciparum (Pf) and Pv blood-stage infections/year (Pf-_molFOB = 0–18, Pv-_molFOB = 0–23) resulting in comparable spatial and temporal patterns in incidence and prevalence of infections. Including relapses, Pv-_molFOB increased >3 fold (relative to PQ-treated children) showing greater heterogeneity at individual (Pv-_molFOB = 0–36) and village levels. Pf- and Pv-_molFOB were strongly associated with clinical episode risk. Yearly Pf clinical incidence rate (IR = 0.28) was higher than for Pv (IR = 0.12) despite lower Pf-_molFOB. These relationships between _molFOB, clinical incidence and parasite prevalence reveal a comparable decline in Pf and Pv transmission that is normally hidden by the high burden of Pv relapses.

Clinical trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02143934

Malaria is caused by five different species of parasites that are transmitted to humans by bites from parasite-carrying mosquitos. Once in human blood, the parasites rapidly multiply. People who live in countries where malaria is common may become infected and never show any symptoms because their immune systems are able to keep parasite numbers low. Repeated infections, or infection with more than one species of malaria parasite also are common. Some species of malaria, including Plasmodium vivax, can hibernate in the liver for weeks or months after the infection and only become active later.

Asymptomatic infections, multi-parasite infections, and reactivating parasites make it hard to measure how often new malaria infections occur. One way scientists can determine if a new infection has occurred is by genotyping the parasites in a person’s blood. Genotyping involves looking for small differences in the parasite DNA. For example, a study in Papua New Guinea, where P. vivax is very common, showed that reactivations of hibernating parasites were more common than new infections.

Now, Hofmann et al. use the same study in Papua New Guinea to compare the frequency and consequences of new infections with P. vivax and another malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. In the study, 466 children from 6 villages were followed for 8 months with tests every 2 to 4 weeks to genotype the parasites in their blood. Some of the children were treated with antimalarial drugs to help wipe out any existing parasites including hibernating ones. While P. vivax was about twice as common in blood samples—likely due to reactivation—genotyping showed that new infections with the two parasites occur at equal rates and often at the same times and locations.

Hofmann et al. also showed that some villages and some children had much higher rates of infection than others. This difference could not fully be explained by use of bednets or other preventive measures. Children were more likely to become ill from P. falciparum than P. vivax even though P. vivax was more common. But children with more frequent infections with P. falciparum seemed better able to manage the parasites and were less likely to develop symptoms that those with infrequent infections. The experiments show that genotyping may help scientists better track new malaria infections and develop better strategies to prevent or treat malaria.

Is a reproduction number of one a threshold for Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination?

Background

The basic reproduction number (R₀) is an important summary of the dynamics of an infectious disease. It is a threshold parameter: an infection can only invade a population if R₀ is greater than 1. However, a number of studies using simple models have suggested that for malaria, it is in theory possible for infection to persist indefinitely even if an intervention has reduced R₀ below 1. Such behaviour is known as a bistable equilibrium. Using two published mathematical models which have both been fitted to detailed, age-stratified data on multiple outcomes, the article investigates whether these more complex models behave in such a way, and hence whether a bistable equilibrium might be a real feature of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Africa.

Results

With the best-fitting parameter values, neither model has a bistable state, because immunity reduces onwards infectiousness. The results imply that there is a threshold such that if interventions can reduce transmission so that R₀ is below 1 for long enough, then malaria will be locally eliminated.

Conclusions

This means that calculations of the reduction in R₀ that interventions can achieve (the effect size) have a useful and straightforward interpretation, whereas if the theoretical possibility of a bistable equilibrium were the real behaviour, then such effect size calculations would not have a clear interpretation.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1437-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Vectorial capacity and vector control: reconsidering sensitivity to parameters for malaria elimination

BACKGROUND

Major gains have been made in reducing malaria transmission in many parts of the world, principally by scaling-up coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying. Historically, choice of vector control intervention has been largely guided by a parameter sensitivity analysis of George Macdonald's theory of vectorial capacity that suggested prioritizing methods that kill adult mosquitoes. While this advice has been highly successful for transmission suppression, there is a need to revisit these arguments as policymakers in certain areas consider which combinations of interventions are required to eliminate malaria.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using analytical solutions to updated equations for vectorial capacity we build on previous work to show that, while adult killing methods can be highly effective under many circumstances, other vector control methods are frequently required to fill effective coverage gaps. These can arise due to pre-existing or developing mosquito physiological and behavioral refractoriness but also due to additive changes in the relative importance of different vector species for transmission. Furthermore, the optimal combination of interventions will depend on the operational constraints and costs associated with reaching high coverage levels with each intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

Reaching specific policy goals, such as elimination, in defined contexts requires increasingly non-generic advice from modelling. Our results emphasize the importance of measuring baseline epidemiology, intervention coverage, vector ecology and program operational constraints in predicting expected outcomes with different combinations of interventions.

An Epidemiological Model of the Effects of Insecticide-Treated Bed Nets on Malaria Transmission

Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) have become a central tool for malaria control because they provide personal and community-wide protection through their repellent and insecticidal properties. Here we propose a model that allows to assess the relative importance of those two effects in different epidemiological contexts and we show that these two levels of protection may oppose each other. On the one hand, repellency offers personal protection to the users of ITNs. The repellent action, however, is a two-edged sword, for it diverts infectious mosquitoes to non-users, thereby increasing their risk. Furthermore, with increasing ITN coverage, the personal protection effect of repellency decreases as mosquitoes are forced to perform multiple feeding attempts even on ITN users. On the other hand, the insecticidal property, which offers community-wide protection by killing mosquitoes, requires that mosquitoes contact the insecticide on the ITN and is thus counteracted by the repellency. Our model confirms that ITNs are an effective intervention method by reducing total malaria prevalence in the population, but that there is a conflict between personal protection, offered by repellency, and community-wide protection, which relies on the ITN’s insecticidal properties. Crucially, the model suggests that weak repellency allows disease elimination at lower ITN coverage levels.

Analysing the nutrition-disease nexus: the case of malaria

Background

Motivated by the observation that children suffering from undernutrition are more likely to experience disease and are more likely to die if they do contract a disease, mathematical modelling is used to explore the ramifications of targeting preventive disease measures to undernutritioned children.

Methods

A malaria model is constructed with superinfection and heterogeneous susceptibility, where a portion of this susceptibility is due to undernutrition (as measured by weight-for-age z scores); so as to isolate the impact of supplementary food on malaria from the influence of confounding factors, the portion of the total susceptibility that is due to undernutrition is estimated from a large randomized trial of supplementary feeding. Logistic regression is used to estimate mortality given malaria infection as a function of weight-for-age z scores. The clinical malaria morbidity and malaria mortality are analytically computed for a variety of policies involving supplementary food and insecticide-treated bed nets.

Results

The portion of heterogeneity in susceptibility that is due to undernutrition is estimated to be 90.3 %. Targeting insecticide-treated bed nets to undernutritioned children leads to fewer malaria deaths than the random distribution of bed nets in the hypoendemic and mesoendemic settings. When baseline bed net coverage for children is 20 %, supplementary food given to underweight children is estimated to reduce malaria mortality by 7.2–22.9 % as the entomological inoculation rate ranges from 500 to 1.0. In the hyperendemic setting, supplementary food has a bigger impact than bed nets, particularly when baseline bed net coverage is high.

Conclusions

Although the results are speculative (e.g., they are based on parameter estimates that do not possess the traditional statistical significance level), the biological plausibility of the modelling assumptions and the high price-sensitivity of demand for bed nets suggest that free bed net distribution targeted to undernutritioned children in areas suffering from both undernutrition and malaria (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa) should be the subject of a randomized trial in a hypoendemic or mesoendemic setting.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0894-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Effects of vector-control interventions on changes in risk of malaria parasitaemia in sub-Saharan Africa: a spatial and temporal analysis

BACKGROUND

In the past decade, decreases in clinical episodes and deaths due to malaria have been mainly associated with the expansion of vector-control measures, such as insecticide-treated bednets and indoor residual spraying. Malaria indicator surveys gather information about key malaria indicators through national representative household surveys. We aimed to estimate changes in risk of malaria parasitaemia at high spatial resolution in sub-Saharan Africa, and to quantify the effects of malaria interventions at national and subnational levels.

METHODS

In this spatial and temporal analysis, we analysed data from the six sub-Saharan countries that had publicly available data from two malaria indicator or demographic and health surveys with malaria measurements done in 2006-08 and 2010-12: Angola, Liberia, Mozambique, Senegal, Rwanda, and Tanzania. We used Bayesian geostatistical models to estimate the present malaria risk and to establish the change relative to the period between the last two national surveys. We applied Bayesian variable selection procedures to select the most relevant insecticide-treated-bednet measure for reducing malaria risk, and did spatial kriging over the study region to produce intervention coverage maps. We estimated the contribution of bednets and indoor residual spraying on changes in malaria risk, after adjustment for climatic and socioeconomic factors. Spatially varying coefficients of intervention coverage enabled estimation of their effects at subnational level.

FINDINGS

In all countries, the probability of decrease in parasitaemia varied substantially between regions. Insecticide-treated bednets were an important intervention for reducing malaria risk, according to different definitions of coverage. An overall effect of insecticide-treated bednets at country level was significant only in Angola (-0·64, 95% credible interval -0·98 to -0·30) and Senegal (-0·34, -0·64 to -0·05); however, in all countries, we detected significant effects of bednets and indoor residual spraying at local level.

INTERPRETATION

The described methodology is useful for the identification of regions where changes in malaria risk have taken place, and to describe the geographical pattern of malaria. Intervention effects vary in space, which might be driven by local endemicity levels. The produced maps provide a visual aid for national malaria control programmes to identify where targeted strategies and resources are most needed or likely to have the greatest effect on reducing the risk of parasitaemia.

Changing Malaria Prevalence on the Kenyan Coast since 1974: Climate, Drugs and Vector Control

BACKGROUND

Progress toward reducing the malaria burden in Africa has been measured, or modeled, using datasets with relatively short time-windows. These restricted temporal analyses may miss the wider context of longer-term cycles of malaria risk and hence may lead to incorrect inferences regarding the impact of intervention.

METHODS

1147 age-corrected Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence (PfPR2-10) surveys among rural communities along the Kenyan coast were assembled from 1974 to 2014. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive generalized linear mixed model was used to interpolate to 279 small areas for each of the 41 years since 1974. Best-fit polynomial splined curves of changing PfPR2-10 were compared to a sequence of plausible explanatory variables related to rainfall, drug resistance and insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) use.

RESULTS

P. falciparum parasite prevalence initially rose from 1974 to 1987, dipped in 1991-92 but remained high until 1998. From 1998 onwards prevalence began to decline until 2011, then began to rise through to 2014. This major decline occurred before ITNs were widely distributed and variation in rainfall coincided with some, but not all, short-term transmission cycles. Emerging resistance to chloroquine and introduction of sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine provided plausible explanations for the rise and fall of malaria transmission along the Kenyan coast.

CONCLUSIONS

Progress towards elimination might not be as predictable as we would like, where natural and extrinsic cycles of transmission confound evaluations of the effect of interventions. Deciding where a country lies on an elimination pathway requires careful empiric observation of the long-term epidemiology of malaria transmission.

Multiple clinical episodes of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in a low transmission intensity setting: exposure versus immunity

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies indicate that some children experience many more episodes of clinical malaria than their age mates in a given location. Whether this is as a result of the micro-heterogeneity of malaria transmission with some children effectively getting more exposure to infectious mosquitoes than others, or reflects a failure in the acquisition of immunity needs to be elucidated. Here, we investigated the determinants of increased susceptibility to clinical malaria by comparing the intensity of exposure to Plasmodium falciparum and the acquisition of immunity in children at the extreme ends of the over-dispersed distribution of the incidence of clinical malaria.

METHODS

The study was nested within a larger cohort in an area where the intensity of malaria transmission was low. We identified children who over a five-year period experienced 5 to 16 clinical malaria episodes (children at the tail-end of the over-dispersed distribution, n = 35), remained malaria-free (n = 12) or had a single episode (n = 26). We quantified antibodies against seven Plasmodium falciparum merozoite antigens in plasma obtained at six cross-sectional surveys spanning these five years. We analyzed the antibody responses to identify temporal dynamics that associate with disease susceptibility.

RESULTS

Children experiencing multiple episodes of malaria were more likely to be parasite positive by microscopy at cross-sectional surveys (X (2) test for trend 14.72 P = 0.001) and had a significantly higher malaria exposure index, than those in the malaria-free or single episode groups (Kruskal-Wallis test P = 0.009). In contrast, the five-year temporal dynamics of anti-merozoite antibodies were similar in the three groups. Importantly in all groups, antibody levels were below the threshold concentrations previously observed to be correlated with protective immunity.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that in the context of a low malaria transmission setting, susceptibility to clinical malaria is not accounted for by anti-merozoite antibodies but appears to be a consequence of increased parasite exposure. We hypothesize that intensive exposure is a prerequisite for protective antibody concentrations, while little to modest exposure may manifest as multiple clinical infections with low levels of antibodies. These findings have implications for interventions that effectively lower malaria transmission intensity.

Malaria transmission, infection, and disease at three sites with varied transmission intensity in Uganda: implications for malaria control

The intensification of control interventions has led to marked reductions in malaria burden in some settings, but not others. To provide a comprehensive description of malaria epidemiology in Uganda, we conducted surveillance studies over 24 months in 100 houses randomly selected from each of three subcounties: Walukuba (peri-urban), Kihihi (rural), and Nagongera (rural). Annual entomological inoculation rate (aEIR) was estimated from monthly Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light trap mosquito collections. Children aged 0.5-10 years were provided long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and followed for measures of parasite prevalence, anemia and malaria incidence. Estimates of aEIR were 2.8, 32.0, and 310 infectious bites per year, and estimates of parasite prevalence 7.4%, 9.3%, and 28.7% for Walukuba, Kihihi, and Nagongera, respectively. Over the 2-year study, malaria incidence per person-years decreased in Walukuba (0.51 versus 0.31, P = 0.001) and increased in Kihihi (0.97 versus 1.93, P < 0.001) and Nagongera (2.33 versus 3.30, P < 0.001). Of 2,582 episodes of malaria, only 8 (0.3%) met criteria for severe disease. The prevalence of anemia was low and not associated with transmission intensity. In our cohorts, where LLINs and prompt effective treatment were provided, the risk of complicated malaria and anemia was extremely low. However, malaria incidence was high and increased over time at the two rural sites, suggesting improved community-wide coverage of LLIN and additional malaria control interventions are needed in Uganda.

Global malaria eradication and the importance of Plasmodium falciparum epidemiology in Africa

The global agenda for malaria has, once again, embraced the possibility of eradication. As history has shown, there will be no single magic bullet that can be applied to every epidemiological setting. Africa has a diverse malaria ecology, lending itself to some of the highest disease burden areas of the world and a wide range of clinical epidemiological patterns making control with our current tools challenging. This commentary highlights why the epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Africa should not be forgotten when planning an eradication strategy, and why forgetting Africa will, once again, be the single largest threat to any hope for global eradication.

Synergistic and antagonistic interactions between bednets and vaccines in the control of malaria

It is extremely likely that the malaria vaccines currently in development will be used in conjunction with treated bednets and other forms of malaria control. The interaction of different intervention methods is at present poorly understood in a disease such as malaria where immunity is more complex than for other pathogens that have been successfully controlled by vaccination. Here we develop a general mathematical model of malaria transmission to examine the interaction between vaccination and bednets. Counterintuitively, we find that the frailty of malaria immunity will potentially cause both synergistic and antagonistic interactions between vaccination and the use of bednets. We explore the conditions that create these tensions, and outline strategies that minimize their detrimental impact. Our analysis specifically considers the three leading vaccine classes currently in development: preerythrocytic (PEV), blood stage (BSV), and transmission blocking (TBV). We find that the combination of BSV with treated bednets can lead to increased morbidity with no added value in terms of elimination; the interaction is clearly antagonistic. In contrast, there is strong synergy between PEV and treated bednets that may facilitate elimination, although transient stages are likely to increase morbidity. The combination of TBV with treated bednets is synergistic, lowering both morbidity and elimination thresholds. Our results suggest that vaccines will not provide a straightforward solution to malaria control, and that future programs need to consider the synergistic and antagonistic interactions between vaccines and treated bednets.

The interaction between seasonality and pulsed interventions against malaria in their effects on the reproduction number

The basic reproduction number (R0) is an important quantity summarising the dynamics of an infectious disease, as it quantifies how much effort is needed to control transmission. The relative change in R0 due to an intervention is referred to as the effect size. However malaria and other diseases are often highly seasonal and some interventions have time-varying effects, meaning that simple reproduction number formulae cannot be used. Methods have recently been developed for calculating R0 for diseases with seasonally varying transmission. I extend those methods to calculate the effect size of repeated rounds of mass drug administration, indoor residual spraying and other interventions against Plasmodium falciparum malaria in seasonal settings in Africa. I show that if an intervention reduces transmission from one host to another by a constant factor, then its effect size is the same in a seasonal as in a non-seasonal setting. The optimal time of year for drug administration is in the low season, whereas the best time for indoor residual spraying or a vaccine which reduces infection rates is just before the high season. In general, the impact of time-varying interventions increases with increasing seasonality, if carried out at the optimal time of year. The effect of combinations of interventions that act at different stages of the transmission cycle is roughly the product of the separate effects. However for individual time-varying interventions, it is necessary to use methods such as those developed here rather than inserting the average efficacy into a simple formula.

A methodological framework for the improved use of routine health system data to evaluate national malaria control programs: evidence from Zambia

Background

Due to challenges in laboratory confirmation, reporting completeness, timeliness, and health access, routine incidence data from health management information systems (HMIS) have rarely been used for the rigorous evaluation of malaria control program scale-up in Africa.

Methods

We used data from the Zambia HMIS for 2009–2011, a period of rapid diagnostic and reporting scale-up, to evaluate the association between insecticide-treated net (ITN) program intensity and district-level monthly confirmed outpatient malaria incidence using a dose–response national platform approach with district-time units as the unit of analysis. A Bayesian geostatistical model was employed to estimate longitudinal district-level ITN coverage from household survey and programmatic data, and a conditional autoregressive model (CAR) was used to impute missing HMIS data. The association between confirmed malaria case incidence and ITN program intensity was modeled while controlling for known confounding factors, including climate variability, reporting, testing, treatment-seeking, and access to health care, and additionally accounting for spatial and temporal autocorrelation.

Results

An increase in district level ITN coverage of one ITN per household was associated with an estimated 27% reduction in confirmed case incidence overall (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0 · 73, 95% Bayesian Credible Interval (BCI): 0 · 65–0 · 81), and a 41% reduction in areas of lower malaria burden.

Conclusions

When improved through comprehensive parasitologically confirmed case reporting, HMIS data can become a valuable tool for evaluating malaria program scale-up. Using this approach we provide further evidence that increased ITN coverage is associated with decreased malaria morbidity and use of health services for malaria illness in Zambia. These methods and results are broadly relevant for malaria program evaluations currently ongoing in sub-Saharan Africa, especially as routine confirmed case data improve.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12963-014-0030-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The epidemiology of imported malaria in Taiwan between 2002-2013: the importance of sensitive surveillance and implications for pre-travel medical advice

The purpose of this study was to assess the epidemiology of imported malaria in Taiwan between 2002 and 2013. We analyzed the national data recorded by the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (Taiwan CDC). Malaria cases were diagnosed by blood films, polymerase chain reaction, or rapid diagnostic tests. The risk of re-establishment of malarial transmission in Taiwan was assessed. A total of 229 malaria cases were included in our analysis. All of the cases were imported. One hundred and ninety-two cases (84%) were diagnosed within 13 days of the start of symptoms/signs; 43% of these cases were acquired in Africa and 44% were acquired in Asia. Plasmodium falciparum was responsible for the majority (56%) of these cases. Travel to an endemic area was associated with the acquisition of malaria. The malaria importation rate was 2.36 per 1,000,000 travelers (range 1.20–5.74). The reproductive number under control (R_c) was 0. No endemic transmission of malaria in Taiwan was identified. This study suggests that a vigilant surveillance system, vector-control efforts, case management, and an educational approach focused on travelers and immigrants who visit malaria endemic countries are needed to prevent outbreaks and sustain the elimination of malaria in Taiwan.

The changing risk of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection in Africa: 2000-10: a spatial and temporal analysis of transmission intensity

BACKGROUND

Over a decade ago, the Roll Back Malaria Partnership was launched, and since then there has been unprecedented investment in malaria control. We examined the change in malaria transmission intensity during the period 2000-10 in Africa.

METHODS

We assembled a geocoded and community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate standardised to the age group 2-10 years (PfPR2-10) database from across 49 endemic countries and territories in Africa from surveys undertaken since 1980. The data were used within a Bayesian space-time geostatistical framework to predict PfPR2-10 in 2000 and 2010 at a 1 × 1 km spatial resolution. Population distribution maps at the same spatial resolution were used to compute populations at risk by endemicity class and estimate population-adjusted PfPR2-10 (PAPfPR2-10) for each of the 44 countries for which predictions were possible for each year.

FINDINGS

Between 2000 and 2010, the population in hyperendemic (>50% to 75% PfPR2-10) or holoendemic (>75% PfPR2-10) areas decreased from 218·6 million (34·4%) of 635·7 million to 183·5 million (22·5%) of 815·7 million across 44 malaria-endemic countries. 280·1 million (34·3%) people lived in areas of mesoendemic transmission (>10% to 50% PfPR2-10) in 2010 compared with 178·6 million (28·1%) in 2000. Population in areas of unstable or very low transmission (<5% PfPR2-10) increased from 131·7 million people (20·7%) in 2000 to 219·0 million (26·8%) in 2010. An estimated 217·6 million people, or 26·7% of the 2010 population, lived in areas where transmission had reduced by at least one PfPR2-10 endemicity class. 40 countries showed a reduction in national mean PAPfPR2-10. Only ten countries contributed 87·1% of the population living in areas of hyperendemic or holoendemic transmission in 2010.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial reductions in malaria transmission have been achieved in endemic countries in Africa over the period 2000-10. However, 57% of the population in 2010 continued to live in areas where transmission remains moderate to intense and global support to sustain and accelerate the reduction of transmission must remain a priority.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Clustering of vector control interventions has important consequences for their effectiveness: a modelling study

Vector control interventions have resulted in considerable reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality. When universal coverage cannot be achieved for financial or logistical reasons, the spatial arrangement of vector control is potentially important for optimizing benefits. This study investigated the effect of spatial clustering of vector control interventions on reducing the population of biting mosquitoes. A discrete-space continuous-time mathematical model of mosquito population dynamics and dispersal was extended to incorporate vector control interventions of insecticide treated bednets (ITNs), Indoor residual Spraying (IRS), and larviciding. Simulations were run at varying levels of coverage and degree of spatial clustering. At medium to high coverage levels of each of the interventions or in combination was more effective to spatially spread these interventions than to cluster them. Suggesting that when financial resources are limited, unclustered distribution of these interventions is more effective. Although it is often stated that locally high coverage is needed to achieve a community effect of ITNs or IRS, our results suggest that if the coverage of ITNs or IRS are insufficient to achieve universal coverage, and there is no targeting of high risk areas, the overall effects on mosquito densities are much greater if they are distributed in an unclustered way, rather than clustered in specific localities. Also, given that interventions are often delivered preferentially to accessible areas, and are therefore clustered, our model results show this may be inefficient. This study provides evidence that the effectiveness of an intervention can be highly dependent on its spatial distribution. Vector control plans should consider the spatial arrangement of any intervention package to ensure effectiveness is maximized.

An adjusted bed net coverage indicator with estimations for 23 African countries

Background

Many studies have assessed the level of bed net coverage in populations at risk of malaria infection. These revealed large variations in bed net use across countries, regions and social strata. Such studies are often aimed at identifying populations with low access to bed nets that should be prioritized in future interventions. However, often spatial differences in malaria endemicity are not taken into account. By ignoring variability in malaria endemicity, these studies prioritize populations with little access to bed nets, even if these happen to live in low endemicity areas. Conversely, populations living in regions with high malaria endemicity will receive a lower priority once a seizable proportion is protected by bed nets. Adequately assigning priorities requires accounting for both the current level of bed net coverage and the local malaria endemicity. Indeed, as shown here for 23 African countries, there is no correlation between the level of bed net coverage and the level of malaria endemicity in a region. Therefore, the need for future interventions can not be assessed based on current bed net coverage alone. This paper proposes the Adjusted Bed net Coverage (ABC) statistic as a measure taking into account both local malaria endemicity and the level of bed net coverage. The measure allows setting priorities for future interventions taking into account both local malaria endemicity and bed net coverage.

Methods

A mathematical formulation of the ABC as a weighted difference of bed net coverage and malaria endemicity is presented. The formulation is parameterized based on a model of malaria epidemiology (Smith et al. Trends Parasitol 25:511-516, 2009). By parameterizing the ABC based on this model, the ABC as used in this paper is proxy for the steady-state malaria burden given the current level of bed net coverage. Data on the bed net coverage in under five year olds and malaria endemicity in 23 Sub-Saharan countries is used to show that the ABC prioritizes different populations than the level of bed net coverage by itself. Data from the following countries was used: Angola, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Congo Democratic Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The priority order given by the ABC and the bed net coverage are compared at the countries’ level, the first level administrative divisions and for five different wealth quintiles.

Results

Both at national level and at the level of the administrative divisions the ABC suggests a different priority order for selecting countries and divisions for future interventions. When taking into account malaria endemicity, measures assessing equality in access to bed nets across wealth quintiles, such as slopes of inequality, are prone to change. This suggests that when assessing inequality in access to bed nets one should take into account the local malaria endemicity for populations from different wealth quintiles.

Conclusion

Accounting for malaria endemicity highlights different countries, regions and socio-economic strata for future intervention than the bed net coverage by itself. Therefore, care should be taken to factor out any effects of local malaria endemicity in assessing bed net coverage and in prioritizing populations for further scale-up of bed net coverage. The ABC is proposed as a simple means to do this that is derived from an existing model of malaria epidemiology.

Heterogeneity, mixing, and the spatial scales of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission

The Ross-Macdonald model has dominated theory for mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control for over a century. The model, like many other basic population models, makes the mathematically convenient assumption that populations are well mixed; i.e., that each mosquito is equally likely to bite any vertebrate host. This assumption raises questions about the validity and utility of current theory because it is in conflict with preponderant empirical evidence that transmission is heterogeneous. Here, we propose a new dynamic framework that is realistic enough to describe biological causes of heterogeneous transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens of humans, yet tractable enough to provide a basis for developing and improving general theory. The framework is based on the ecological context of mosquito blood meals and the fine-scale movements of individual mosquitoes and human hosts that give rise to heterogeneous transmission. Using this framework, we describe pathogen dispersion in terms of individual-level analogues of two classical quantities: vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number, . Importantly, this framework explicitly accounts for three key components of overall heterogeneity in transmission: heterogeneous exposure, poor mixing, and finite host numbers. Using these tools, we propose two ways of characterizing the spatial scales of transmission—pathogen dispersion kernels and the evenness of mixing across scales of aggregation—and demonstrate the consequences of a model's choice of spatial scale for epidemic dynamics and for estimation of , both by a priori model formulas and by inference of the force of infection from time-series data.

Pathogens transmitted by mosquitoes, such as malaria and dengue, are notorious for the biological complexity associated with how they are transmitted within local communities. Yet mathematical models for these pathogens, which are critical tools for making recommendations for control policy, are based around concepts originally designed to describe how molecules interact in chemical systems. To provide those interested in mosquito-borne diseases a more appropriate tool for modeling their transmission, we introduce a mathematical framework that is based on the spatial locations where mosquitoes lay eggs and feed on blood and how mosquitoes and hosts move about those locations. Analysis of this framework shows that the transmission contributions of different hosts and locations can be calculated, and that overall potential for transmission in a community depends on three concepts: heterogeneous exposure (some people bitten by mosquitoes more than others), poor mixing (non-random contacts between hosts and mosquitoes), and finite population sizes (each host can contribute at most one new infection towards the population total). Together, these factors determine critical levels of vaccination coverage to eliminate a pathogen and the spatial areas over which transmission should be modeled and studied in the field.

Mapping malaria transmission intensity in Malawi, 2000-2010

Substantial development assistance has been directed towards reducing the high malaria burden in Malawi over the past decade. We assessed changes in transmission over this period of malaria control scale-up by compiling community Plasmodium falciparum rate (PfPR) data during 2000-2011 and used model-based geostatistical methods to predict mean PfPR2-10 in 2000, 2005, and 2010. In addition, we calculated population-adjusted prevalences and populations at risk by district to inform malaria control program priority setting. The national population-adjusted PfPR2-10 was 37% in 2010, and we found no evidence of change over this period of scale-up. The entire population of Malawi is under meso-endemic transmission risk, with those in districts along the shore of Lake Malawi and Shire River Valley under highest risk. The lack of change in prevalence confirms modeling predictions that when compared with lower transmission, prevalence reductions in high transmission settings require greater investment and longer time scales.

Beyond buzzing: mosquito watching stimulates malaria bednet use-a household-based cluster-randomized controlled assessor blind educational trial

Malaria remains a severe health problem in Sub-Saharan Africa, with approximately one million deaths and 365 million cases each year. In terms of malaria control, insecticide-treated bednets are an effective tool, and many organizations have distributed free or highly subsidized bednets in malaria endemic areas. Nevertheless, some recipients do not use bednets because of social, environmental or cultural factors. Making vulnerable populations aware of the presence of mosquitoes may improve bednet use among people owning but not using a bednet. We hypothesized that showing freshly collected mosquitoes from the vicinity could improve bednet use in households owning but not using bednets. To test this hypothesis, we applied a household-based cluster-randomized controlled assessor blind educational trial. Indirect observation of mosquitoes, via educational leaflets, produced no change in bednet use, while showing freshly captured mosquitoes led to a 13-fold increase in bednet use. Our results suggest that direct observation of freshly captured mosquitoes can encourage bednet use and may potentially improve effective bednet coverage for malaria control and elimination.

Quantifying the mosquito's sweet tooth: modelling the effectiveness of attractive toxic sugar baits (ATSB) for malaria vector control

BACKGROUND

Current vector control strategies focus largely on indoor measures, such as long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS); however mosquitoes frequently feed on sugar sources outdoors, inviting the possibility of novel control strategies. Attractive toxic sugar baits (ATSB), either sprayed on vegetation or provided in outdoor bait stations, have been shown to significantly reduce mosquito densities in these settings.

METHODS

Simple models of mosquito sugar-feeding behaviour were fitted to data from an ATSB field trial in Mali and used to estimate sugar-feeding rates and the potential of ATSB to control mosquito populations. The model and fitted parameters were then incorporated into a larger integrated vector management (IVM) model to assess the potential contribution of ATSB to future IVM programmes.

RESULTS

In the Mali experimental setting, the model suggests that about half of female mosquitoes fed on ATSB solution per day, dying within several hours of ingesting the toxin. Using a model incorporating the number of gonotrophic cycles completed by female mosquitoes, a higher sugar-feeding rate was estimated for younger mosquitoes than for older mosquitoes. Extending this model to incorporate other vector control interventions suggests that an IVM programme based on both ATSB and LLINs may substantially reduce mosquito density and survival rates in this setting, thereby substantially reducing parasite transmission. This is predicted to exceed the impact of LLINs in combination with IRS provided ATSB feeding rates are 50% or more of Mali experimental levels. In addition, ATSB is predicted to be particularly effective against Anopheles arabiensis, which is relatively exophilic and therefore less affected by IRS and LLINs.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that high coverage with a combination of LLINs and ATSB could result in substantial reductions in malaria transmission in this setting. Further field studies of ATSB in other settings are needed to assess the potential of ATSB as a component in future IVM malaria control strategies.

Examining the impact of larval source management and insecticide-treated nets using a spatial agent-based model of Anopheles gambiae and a landscape generator tool

Background

Agent-based models (ABMs) have been used to estimate the effects of malaria-control interventions. Early studies have shown the efficacy of larval source management (LSM) and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) as vector-control interventions, applied both in isolation and in combination. However, the robustness of results can be affected by several important modelling assumptions, including the type of boundary used for landscapes, and the number of replicated simulation runs reported in results. Selection of the ITN coverage definition may also affect the predictive findings. Hence, by replication, independent verification of prior findings of published models bears special importance.

Methods

A spatially-explicit entomological ABM of Anopheles gambiae is used to simulate the resource-seeking process of mosquitoes in grid-based landscapes. To explore LSM and replicate results of an earlier LSM study, the original landscapes and scenarios are replicated by using a landscape generator tool, and 1,800 replicated simulations are run using absorbing and non-absorbing boundaries. To explore ITNs and evaluate the relative impacts of the different ITN coverage schemes, the settings of an earlier ITN study are replicated, the coverage schemes are defined and simulated, and 9,000 replicated simulations for three ITN parameters (coverage, repellence and mortality) are run. To evaluate LSM and ITNs in combination, landscapes with varying densities of houses and human populations are generated, and 12,000 simulations are run.

Results

General agreement with an earlier LSM study is observed when an absorbing boundary is used. However, using a non-absorbing boundary produces significantly different results, which may be attributed to the unrealistic killing effect of an absorbing boundary. Abundance cannot be completely suppressed by removing aquatic habitats within 300 m of houses. Also, with density-dependent oviposition, removal of insufficient number of aquatic habitats may prove counter-productive. The importance of performing large number of simulation runs is also demonstrated. For ITNs, the choice of coverage scheme has important implications, and too high repellence yields detrimental effects. When LSM and ITNs are applied in combination, ITNs’ mortality can play more important roles with higher densities of houses. With partial mortality, increasing ITN coverage is more effective than increasing LSM coverage, and integrating both interventions yields more synergy as the densities of houses increase.

Conclusions

Using a non-absorbing boundary and reporting average results from sufficiently large number of simulation runs are strongly recommended for malaria ABMs. Several guidelines (code and data sharing, relevant documentation, and standardized models) for future modellers are also recommended.

Towards the endgame and beyond: complexities and challenges for the elimination of infectious diseases

Successful control measures have interrupted the local transmission of human infectious diseases such as measles, malaria and polio, and saved and improved billions of lives. Similarly, control efforts have massively reduced the incidence of many infectious diseases of animals, such as rabies and rinderpest, with positive benefits for human health and livelihoods across the globe. However, disease elimination has proven an elusive goal, with only one human and one animal pathogen globally eradicated. As elimination targets expand to regional and even global levels, hurdles may emerge within the endgame when infections are circulating at very low levels, turning the last mile of these public health marathons into the longest mile. In this theme issue, we bring together recurring challenges that emerge as we move towards elimination, highlighting the unanticipated consequences of particular ecologies and pathologies of infection, and approaches to their management.

A sticky situation: the unexpected stability of malaria elimination

Malaria eradication involves eliminating malaria from every country where transmission occurs. Current theory suggests that the post-elimination challenges of remaining malaria-free by stopping transmission from imported malaria will have onerous operational and financial requirements. Although resurgent malaria has occurred in a majority of countries that tried but failed to eliminate malaria, a review of resurgence in countries that successfully eliminated finds only four such failures out of 50 successful programmes. Data documenting malaria importation and onwards transmission in these countries suggests malaria transmission potential has declined by more than 50-fold (i.e. more than 98%) since before elimination. These outcomes suggest that elimination is a surprisingly stable state. Elimination's ‘stickiness’ must be explained either by eliminating countries starting off qualitatively different from non-eliminating countries or becoming different once elimination was achieved. Countries that successfully eliminated were wealthier and had lower baseline endemicity than those that were unsuccessful, but our analysis shows that those same variables were at best incomplete predictors of the patterns of resurgence. Stability is reinforced by the loss of immunity to disease and by the health system's increasing capacity to control malaria transmission after elimination through routine treatment of cases with antimalarial drugs supplemented by malaria outbreak control. Human travel patterns reinforce these patterns; as malaria recedes, fewer people carry malaria from remote endemic areas to remote areas where transmission potential remains high. Establishment of an international resource with backup capacity to control large outbreaks can make elimination stickier, increase the incentives for countries to eliminate, and ensure steady progress towards global eradication. Although available evidence supports malaria elimination's stickiness at moderate-to-low transmission in areas with well-developed health systems, it is not yet clear if such patterns will hold in all areas. The sticky endpoint changes the projected costs of maintaining elimination and makes it substantially more attractive for countries acting alone, and it makes spatially progressive elimination a sensible strategy for a malaria eradication endgame.

A threshold concentration of anti-merozoite antibodies is required for protection from clinical episodes of malaria

Antibodies to selected Plasmodium falciparum merozoite antigens are often reported to be associated with protection from malaria in one epidemiological cohort, but not in another. Here, we sought to understand this paradox by exploring the hypothesis that a threshold concentration of antibodies is necessary for protection. We analyzed data from two independent cohorts along the Kenyan coast, one in which antibodies to AMA1, MSP-2 and MSP-3 were associated with protection from malaria (Chonyi) and another in which this association was not observed (Junju). We used a malaria reference reagent to standardize antibody measurements across both cohorts, and applied statistical methods to derive the threshold concentration of antibodies against each antigen that best correlated with a reduced risk of malaria (the protective threshold), in the Chonyi cohort. We then tested whether antibodies in Junju reached the protective threshold concentrations observed in the Chonyi cohort. Except for children under 3 years, the age-matched proportions of children achieving protective threshold concentrations of antibodies against AMA1 and MSP-2 were significantly lower in Junju compared to Chonyi (Fishers exact test, P<0.01). For MSP-3, this difference was significant only among 4-5 year olds. We conclude that although antibodies are commonly detected in malaria endemic populations, they may be present in concentrations that are insufficient for protection. Our results have implications for the analysis and interpretation of similar data from immuno-epidemiological studies.

Childhood malaria admission rates to four hospitals in Malawi between 2000 and 2010

INTRODUCTION

The last few years have witnessed rapid scaling-up of key malaria interventions in several African countries following increases in development assistance. However, there is only limited country-specific information on the health impact of expanded coverage of these interventions.

METHODS

Paediatric admission data were assembled from 4 hospitals in Malawi reflecting different malaria ecologies. Trends in monthly clinical malaria admissions between January 2000 and December 2010 were analysed using time-series models controlling for covariates related to climate and service use to establish whether changes in admissions can be related to expanded coverage of interventions aimed at reducing malaria infection.

RESULTS

In 3 of 4 sites there was an increase in clinical malaria admission rates. Results from time series models indicate a significant month-to-month increase in the mean clinical malaria admission rates at two hospitals (trend P<0.05). At these hospitals clinical malaria admissions had increased from 2000 by 41% to 100%. Comparison of changes in malaria risk and ITN coverage appear to correspond to a lack of disease declines over the period. Changes in intervention coverage within hospital catchments showed minimal increases in ITN coverage from <6% across all sites in 2000 to maximum of 33% at one hospital site by 2010. Additionally, malaria transmission intensity remained unchanged between 2000-2010 across all sites.

DISCUSSION

Despite modest increases in coverage of measures to reduce infection there has been minimal changes in paediatric clinical malaria cases in four hospitals in Malawi. Studies across Africa are increasingly showing a mixed set of impact results and it is important to assemble more data from more sites to understand the wider implications of malaria funding investment. We also caution that impact surveillance should continue in areas where intervention coverage is increasing with time, for example Malawi, as decline may become evident within a period when coverage reaches optimal levels.

Theoretical impact of insecticide-impregnated school uniforms on dengue incidence in Thai children

Background

Children carry the main burden of morbidity and mortality caused by dengue. Children spend a considerable amount of their day at school; hence strategies that reduce human–mosquito contact to protect against the day-biting habits of Aedes mosquitoes at schools, such as insecticide-impregnated uniforms, could be an effective prevention strategy.

Methodology

We used mathematical models to calculate the risk of dengue infection based on force of infection taking into account the estimated proportion of mosquito bites that occur in school and the proportion of school time that children wear the impregnated uniforms.

Principal findings

The use of insecticide-impregnated uniforms has efficacy varying from around 6% in the most pessimistic estimations, to 55% in the most optimistic scenarios simulated.

Conclusions

Reducing contact between mosquito bites and human hosts via insecticide-treated uniforms during school time is theoretically effective in reducing dengue incidence and may be a valuable additional tool for dengue control in school-aged children. The efficacy of this strategy, however, is dependent on the compliance of the target population in terms of proper and consistent wearing of uniforms and, perhaps more importantly, the proportion of bites inflicted by the Aedes population during school time.

Nets, spray or both? The effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying in reducing malaria morbidity and child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Malaria control programmes currently face the challenge of maintaining, as well as accelerating, the progress made against malaria with fewer resources and uncertain funding. There is a critical need to determine what combination of malaria interventions confers the greatest protection against malaria morbidity and child mortality under routine conditions.

METHODS

This study assesses intervention effectiveness experienced by children under the age of five exposed to both insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), as compared to each intervention alone, based on nationally representative survey data collected from 17 countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

RESULTS

Living in households with both ITNs and IRS was associated with a significant risk reduction against parasitaemia in medium and high transmission areas, 53% (95% CI 37% to 67%) and 31% (95% CI 11% to 47%) respectively. For medium transmission areas, an additional 36% (95% CI 7% to 53%) protection was garnered by having both interventions compared with exposure to only ITNs or only IRS. Having both ITNs and IRS was not significantly more protective against parasitaemia than either intervention alone in low and high malaria transmission areas. In rural and urban areas, exposure to both interventions provided significant protection against parasitaemia, 57% (95% CI 48% to 65%) and 39% (95% CI 10% to 61%) respectively; however, this effect was not significantly greater than having a singular intervention. Statistically, risk for all-cause child mortality was not significantly reduced by having both ITNs and IRS, and no additional protectiveness was detected for having dual intervention coverage over a singular intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that greater reductions in malaria morbidity and health gains for children may be achieved with ITNs and IRS combined beyond the protection offered by IRS or ITNs alone.

When they don't bite, we smell money: understanding malaria bednet misuse

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are a major tool to control malaria. Over recent years increased ITN coverage has been associated with decreased malaria transmission. However, ITN ‘misuse’ has been increasingly reported and whether this emergent behaviour poses a threat to successful malaria control and elimination is an open question. Here, we use a game theory mathematical model to understand the possible roles of poverty and malaria infection protection by individual and emerging ‘community effects’ on the ‘misuse’ of malaria bednets. We compare model predictions with data from our studies in Lake Victoria Islands (LVI), Kenya and Aneityum, Vanuatu. Our model shows that alternative ITN use is likely to emerge in impoverished populations and could be exacerbated if ITNs become ineffective or when large ‘community effects’ emerge. Our model predicted patterns of ITN use similar to the observed in LVI, where ‘misuse’ is common and the high ITN use in Aneityum, more than 20 years after malaria elimination in 1990. We think that observed differences in ITN use may be shaped by different degrees of economic and social development, and educational components of the Aneityum elimination, where traditional cooperative attitudes were strengthened with the malaria elimination intervention and post-elimination surveillance.

A dynamic model of some malaria-transmitting anopheline mosquitoes of the Afrotropical region. I. Model description and sensitivity analysis

BACKGROUND

Most of the current biophysical models designed to address the large-scale distribution of malaria assume that transmission of the disease is independent of the vector involved. Another common assumption in these type of model is that the mortality rate of mosquitoes is constant over their life span and that their dispersion is negligible. Mosquito models are important in the prediction of malaria and hence there is a need for a realistic representation of the vectors involved.

RESULTS

We construct a biophysical model including two competing species, Anopheles gambiae s.s. and Anopheles arabiensis. Sensitivity analysis highlight the importance of relative humidity and mosquito size, the initial conditions and dispersion, and a rarely used parameter, the probability of finding blood. We also show that the assumption of exponential mortality of adult mosquitoes does not match the observed data, and suggest that an age dimension can overcome this problem.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights some of the assumptions commonly used when constructing mosquito-malaria models and presents a realistic model of An. gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis and their interaction. This new mosquito model, OMaWa, can improve our understanding of the dynamics of these vectors, which in turn can be used to understand the dynamics of malaria.

How well are malaria maps used to design and finance malaria control in Africa?

Introduction

Rational decision making on malaria control depends on an understanding of the epidemiological risks and control measures. National Malaria Control Programmes across Africa have access to a range of state-of-the-art malaria risk mapping products that might serve their decision-making needs. The use of cartography in planning malaria control has never been methodically reviewed.

Materials and Methods

An audit of the risk maps used by NMCPs in 47 malaria endemic countries in Africa was undertaken by examining the most recent national malaria strategies, monitoring and evaluation plans, malaria programme reviews and applications submitted to the Global Fund. The types of maps presented and how they have been used to define priorities for investment and control was investigated.

Results

91% of endemic countries in Africa have defined malaria risk at sub-national levels using at least one risk map. The range of risk maps varies from maps based on suitability of climate for transmission; predicted malaria seasons and temperature/altitude limitations, to representations of clinical data and modelled parasite prevalence. The choice of maps is influenced by the source of the information. Maps developed using national data through in-country research partnerships have greater utility than more readily accessible web-based options developed without inputs from national control programmes. Although almost all countries have stratification maps, only a few use them to guide decisions on the selection of interventions allocation of resources for malaria control.

Conclusion

The way information on the epidemiology of malaria is presented and used needs to be addressed to ensure evidence-based added value in planning control. The science on modelled impact of interventions must be integrated into new mapping products to allow a translation of risk into rational decision making for malaria control. As overseas and domestic funding diminishes, strategic planning will be necessary to guide appropriate financing for malaria control.

Malaria risk mapping for control in the republic of Sudan

Evidence shows that malaria risk maps are rarely tailored to address national control program ambitions. Here, we generate a malaria risk map adapted for malaria control in Sudan. Community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) data from 2000 to 2010 were assembled and were standardized to 2-10 years of age (PfPR(2-10)). Space-time Bayesian geostatistical methods were used to generate a map of malaria risk for 2010. Surfaces of aridity, urbanization, irrigation schemes, and refugee camps were combined with the PfPR(2-10) map to tailor the epidemiological stratification for appropriate intervention design. In 2010, a majority of the geographical area of the Sudan had risk of < 1% PfPR(2-10). Areas of meso- and hyperendemic risk were located in the south. About 80% of Sudan's population in 2011 was in the areas in the desert, urban centers, or where risk was < 1% PfPR(2-10). Aggregated data suggest reducing risks in some high transmission areas since the 1960s.

Scaling up impact of malaria control programmes: a tale of events in Sub-Saharan Africa and People's Republic of China

This review aims at providing synthetic information with scientific evidence on the trends in the malaria events from 1960 to 2011, with the hope that it will help policy makers to take informed decisions on public health issues and intervention designs on malaria control towards elimination in both Sub-Sahara Africa and in the People's Republic of China by highlighting the achievements, progress and challenges in research on moving malaria from epidemic status towards elimination. Our findings showed that since 1960, malaria control programmes in most countries have been disjointed and not harmonized. Interestingly, during the last decade, the causal factors of the unprecedented and substantial decline in malaria morbidity and mortality rates in most vulnerable groups in these endemic areas are multifaceted, including not only the spread of malaria and its related effects but also political and financial willingness, commitment and funding by governments and international donors. The benefits of scaling up the impact of malaria coverage interventions, improvement of health system approaches and sustained commitment of stakeholders are highlighted, although considerable efforts are still necessary in Sub-Sahara Africa. Furthermore, novel integrated control strategies aiming at moving malaria from epidemic status to control towards elimination, require solid research priorities both for sustainability of the most efficient existing tools and intervention coverage, and in gaining more insights in the understanding of the epidemiology, pathogenesis, vector dynamics, and socioeconomic aspects of the disease. In conclusion, political commitment and financial investment of stakeholders in sustaining the scaling up impact of malaria control interventions, networking between African and Chinese scientists, and their Western partners are urgently needed in upholding the recent gains, and in translating lessons learnt from the Chinese malaria control achievements and successes into practical interventions in malaria endemic countries in Africa and elsewhere.

Use of rapid diagnostic tests in malaria school surveys in Kenya: does their under-performance matter for planning malaria control?

Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are known to yield false-positive results, and their use in epidemiologic surveys will overestimate infection prevalence and potentially hinder efficient targeting of interventions. To examine the consequences of using RDTs in school surveys, we compared three RDT brands used during a nationwide school survey in Kenya with expert microscopy and investigated the cost implications of using alternative diagnostic approaches in identifying localities with differing levels of infection. Overall, RDT sensitivity was 96.1% and specificity was 70.8%. In terms of classifying districts and schools according to prevalence categories, RDTs were most reliable for the < 1% and > 40% categories and least reliable in the 1–4.9% category. In low-prevalence settings, microscopy was the most expensive approach, and RDT results corrected by either microscopy or polymerase chain reaction were the cheapest. Use of polymerase chain reaction–corrected RDT results is recommended in school malaria surveys, especially in settings with low-to-moderate malaria transmission.