Association between all-cause and cause-specific mortality and the GOLD stages 1-4: A 30-year follow-up among Finnish adults

All-cause and cause-specific mortality by spirometric pattern and sex - a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Chronic airway obstruction (CAO) and restrictive spirometry pattern (RSP) are associated with mortality, but sex-specific patterns of all-cause and specific causes of death have hardly been evaluated.

OBJECTIVES

To study the possible sex-dependent differences of all-cause mortality and patterns of cause-specific mortality among men and women with CAO and RSP, respectively, to that of normal lung function (NLF).

DESIGN

Population-based prospective cohort study.

METHODS

Individuals with CAO [FEV1/vital capacity (VC) < 0.70], RSP [FEV1/VC ⩾ 0.70 and forced vital capacity (FVC) < 80% predicted] and NLF (FEV1/VC ⩾ 0.70 and FVC ⩾ 80% predicted) were identified within the Obstructive Lung Disease in Northern Sweden (OLIN) studies in 2002-2004. Mortality data were collected through April 2016, totally covering 19,000 patient-years. Cox regression and Fine-Gray regression accounting for competing risks were utilized to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) adjusted for age, body mass index, sex, smoking habits and pack-years.

RESULTS

The adjusted hazard for all-cause mortality was higher in CAO and RSP than in NLF (HR, 95% CI; 1.69, 1.31-2.02 and 1.24, 1.06-1.71), and the higher hazards were driven by males. CAO had a higher hazard of respiratory and cardiovascular death than NLF (2.68, 1.05-6.82 and 1.40, 1.04-1.90). The hazard of respiratory death was significant in women (3.41, 1.05-11.07) while the hazard of cardiovascular death was significant in men (1.49, 1.01-2.22). In RSP, the higher hazard for respiratory death remained after adjustment (2.68, 1.05-6.82) but not for cardiovascular death (1.11, 0.74-1.66), with a similar pattern in both sexes.

CONCLUSION

The higher hazard for all-cause mortality in CAO and RSP than in NLF was male driven. CAO was associated with respiratory death in women and cardiovascular death in men, while RSP is associated with respiratory death, similarly in both sexes.

An analysis of the regional heterogeneity in tissue elasticity in lung cancer patients with COPD

Purpose

Recent advancements in obtaining image-based biomarkers from CT images have enabled lung function characterization, which could aid in lung interventional planning. However, the regional heterogeneity in these biomarkers has not been well documented, yet it is critical to several procedures for lung cancer and COPD. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the interlobar and intralobar heterogeneity of tissue elasticity and study their relationship with COPD severity.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed a set of 23 lung cancer patients for this study, 14 of whom had COPD. For each patient, we employed a 5DCT scanning protocol to obtain end-exhalation and end-inhalation images and semi-automatically segmented the lobes. We calculated tissue elasticity using a biomechanical property estimation model. To obtain a measure of lobar elasticity, we calculated the mean of the voxel-wise elasticity values within each lobe. To analyze interlobar heterogeneity, we defined an index that represented the properties of the least elastic lobe as compared to the rest of the lobes, termed the Elasticity Heterogeneity Index (EHI). An index of 0 indicated total homogeneity, and higher indices indicated higher heterogeneity. Additionally, we measured intralobar heterogeneity by calculating the coefficient of variation of elasticity within each lobe.

Results

The mean EHI was 0.223 ± 0.183. The mean coefficient of variation of the elasticity distributions was 51.1% ± 16.6%. For mild COPD patients, the interlobar heterogeneity was low compared to the other categories. For moderate-to-severe COPD patients, the interlobar and intralobar heterogeneities were highest, showing significant differences from the other groups.

Conclusion

We observed a high level of lung tissue heterogeneity to occur between and within the lobes in all COPD severity cases, especially in moderate-to-severe cases. Heterogeneity results demonstrate the value of a regional, function-guided approach like elasticity for procedures such as surgical decision making and treatment planning.

Mortality of asthma, COPD, and asthma-COPD overlap during an 18-year follow up

BACKGROUND

We studied asthma, COPD, and asthma-COPD overlap (ACO) to predict mortality in a cohort of Finnish adults with an 18-year follow up.

METHODS

A national health examination survey representing Finnish adults aged ≥30 years was performed in 2000-2001. The study cohort included 5922 participants (73.8% of the sample) with all relevant data, including a comprehensive clinical examination and spirometry. These participants were followed continuously from baseline until end of 2018 for total, cardiovascular, cancer, and respiratory mortality through a record linkage. Asthma, COPD, and ACO were defined based on the survey data, including spirometry and register data. There were three separate groups of obstructive subjects (one definition excluding the others).

RESULTS

Asthma and COPD were significantly associated with higher total mortality in Cox's model adjusted for sex, age, smoking, education level, BMI, leisure time physical activity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and hypertension. Hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) for asthma, COPD, and ACO were 1.29 (1.05-1.58), 1.50 (1.20-1.88), and 1.26 (0.97-1.65), respectively. Additionally, asthma (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.09-1.97) and COPD (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) were associated with cardiovascular mortality. Although ACO did not predict mortality in the whole cohort, there was a significant association with mortality risk among those with hs-CRP 1-2.99 mg/l.

CONCLUSIONS

Asthma or COPD predicts higher total mortality and premature death from cardiovascular diseases.

Relationship between Incidental Abnormalities on Screening Thoracic Computed Tomography and Mortality: A Long-Term Follow-Up Analysis

OBJECTIVE

The present study aimed to assess the relationship between incidental abnormalities on thoracic computed tomography (CT) and mortality in a general screening population using a long-term follow-up analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively collected the medical records and CT images of 840 participants (mean age ± standard deviation [SD], 58.5 ± 6.7 years; 564 male) who underwent thoracic CT at a single health promotion center between 2007 and 2010. Two thoracic radiologists independently reviewed all CT images and evaluated any incidental abnormalities (interstitial lung abnormality [ILA], emphysema, coronary artery calcification [CAC], aortic valve [AV] calcification, and pulmonary nodules). Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank and z-tests was performed to assess the relationship between incidental CT abnormalities and all-cause mortality in the subsequent follow-up. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to further identify risk factors of all-cause mortality among the incidental CT abnormalities and clinical factors.

RESULTS

Among the 840 participants, 55 (6%), 171 (20%), 288 (34%), 396 (47%), and 97 (11%) had findings of ILA, emphysema, CAC, pulmonary nodule, and AV calcification, respectively, on initial CT. The participants were followed up for a mean period ± SD of 10.9 ± 1.4 years. All incidental CT abnormalities were associated with all-cause mortality in univariable analysis (p < 0.05). However, multivariable analysis further revealed fibrotic ILA as an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 2.52 [95% confidence interval, 1.02-6.22], p = 0.046). ILA were also identified as an independent risk factor for lung cancer or respiratory disease-related deaths.

CONCLUSION

Incidental abnormalities on screening thoracic CT were associated with increased mortality during the long-term follow-up. Among incidental CT abnormalities, fibrotic ILA were independently associated with increased mortality. Appropriate management and surveillance may be required for patients with fibrotic ILA on thoracic CT obtained for general screening purposes.

Association between cardiovascular disease- and inflammation-related serum biomarkers and poor lung function in elderly

Background

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a common comorbidity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and reduced lung function is an important risk factor for CVD and CVD-related death. However, the mechanisms behind the increased risk for CVD in COPD patients are not fully understood.

Methods

We examined the association between CVD- and inflammation-related serum biomarkers, and pulmonary function in a geriatric population. 266 biomarkers related to CVD and inflammation were analyzed in blood samples from 611 subjects aged 66–86 years who participated in the Good Aging in Skåne study. Serum levels were assessed by a proximity extension assay. Pulmonary function was measured using the lower limit of normality (LLN) spirometry criteria, i.e., forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC)  <  LLN. Logistic regression models were implemented and multiple comparisons were accounted for.

Results

10.3% of the study participants fulfilled pulmonary function decline criteria according to LLN. Out of the 266 biomarkers, only plasminogen activator, urokinase receptor (PLAUR) was statistically significantly associated with decreased pulmonary function. We could not find a statistically significant association between pulmonary function decline and other biomarkers previously linked to COPD, such as interleukin 6, tumor necrosis factor and surfactant protein D.

Conclusion

We found that serum levels of PLAUR are associated with pulmonary function decline in older adults. PLAUR is activated following inflammation and promotes matrix metallopeptidase (MMP) activation and extracellular matrix (ECM) degradation. This implies that PLAUR could play a role in the early phase of COPD pathogenesis.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12014-021-09329-7.

Management and outcomes of patients with chronic obstructive lung disease and lung cancer in a public healthcare system

Hypothesis

There is limited data on the care and outcomes of individuals with both chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer, particularly in advanced disease. We hypothesized such patients would receive less cancer treatment and have worse outcomes.

Methods

We analyzed administrative data from the province of Ontario including demographics, hospitalization records, physician billings, cancer diagnosis, and treatments. COPD was defined using the ICES-derived COPD cohort (1996–2014) with data from 2002 to 2014. Descriptive statistics and multivariable analyses were undertaken.

Results

Of 105 304 individuals with lung cancer, 43 375 (41%) had stage data and 36 738 (34.9%) had COPD. Those with COPD were likely to be younger, have a Charlson score ≤ 1, have lower income, to live rurally, and to have stage I/II lung cancer (29.8 vs 26.5%; all p<0.001). For the COPD population with stage I/II cancer, surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy were less likely (56.8 vs. 65.9% and 15.4 vs. 17.1%, respectively), while radiation was more likely (26.0 vs. 21.8%) (p all < 0.001). In the stage III/IV population, individuals with COPD received less chemotherapy (55.9 vs 64.4%) or radiation (42.5 vs 47.5%; all p<0.001). Inhaler and oxygen use was higher those with COPD, as were hospitalizations for respiratory infections and COPD exacerbations. On multivariable analysis, overall survival was worse among those with COPD (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.19–1.22).

Conclusions

A co-diagnosis of COPD and lung cancer is associated with less curative treatment in early stage disease, less palliative treatment in late stage disease, and poorer outcomes.

Mortality risk attributable to classification of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and reduced lung function: A 21-year longitudinal cohort study

AIM

The mortality risk attributable to the classifications of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains unclear. We investigated the associations of mortality with COPD classifications and reduced lung function in a large longitudinal cohort in Taiwan.

METHODS

A total of 388,401 adults (≥25 years of age) were recruited between 1996 and 2016 underwent 834,491 medical examinations including spirometry. We used the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) to establish the COPD classifications. A time-dependent Cox regression model was used to investigate the associations between the morality risk and COPD classifications. We also examined the associations between mortality and lung function.

RESULTS

The mean age of the participants was 42.1 years, and the median follow-up duration was 16.2 years. We identified 28,283 natural-cause deaths, and the mortality rate was 4.7 per 1,000 person-years. The hazard ratios (HRs) [95%confidence interval (95%CI)] of mortality in the participants with restrictive spirometry pattern and COPD GOLD Ⅰ-Ⅳ were 1.31 (1.27-1.35), 1.18 (1.00-1.39), 1.43 (1.35-1.51), 1.78 (1.66-1.90), and 2.13 (1.94-2.34), respectively, with reference to the participants with normal lung function. The natural-cause mortality risk increased by 33% [HR(95%CI): 1.33 (1.28-1.39)] for participants with COPD. Reduced lung function was also associated with a higher mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

A more advanced classification of COPD was associated with a greater increase in the mortality risk. Our study suggests that early detection of COPD and slowing the disease progress in patients with COPD are crucial for mortality prevention.

Prediction of Mortality Using Different COPD Risk Assessments - A 12-Year Follow-Up

Purpose

A multidimensional approach in the risk assessment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is preferable. The aim of this study is to compare the prognostic ability for mortality by different COPD assessment systems; spirometric staging, classification by GOLD 2011, GOLD 2017, the age, dyspnea, obstruction (ADO) and the dyspnea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation (DOSE) indices.

Patients and Methods

A total of 490 patients diagnosed with COPD were recruited from primary and secondary care in central Sweden in 2005. The cohort was followed until 2017. Data for categorization using the different assessment systems were obtained through questionnaire data from 2005 and medical record reviews between 2000 and 2003. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess mortality risk. Receiver operating characteristic curves estimated areas under the curve (AUC) to evaluate each assessment systems´ ability to predict mortality.

Results

By the end of follow-up, 49% of the patients were deceased. The mortality rate was higher for patients categorized as stage 3–4, GOLD D in both GOLD classifications and those with a DOSE score above 4 and ADO score above 8. The ADO index was most accurate for predicting mortality, AUC 0.79 (95% CI 0.75–0.83) for all-cause mortality and 0.80 (95% CI 0.75–0.85) for respiratory mortality. The AUC values for stages 1–4, GOLD 2011, GOLD 2017 and DOSE index were 0.73, 0.66, 0.63 and 0.69, respectively, for all-cause mortality.

Conclusion

All of the risk assessment systems predict mortality. The ADO index was in this study the best predictor and could be a helpful tool in COPD risk assessment.

Does lung function predict the risk of disability pension? An 11-year register-based follow-up study

Background

Spirometry is widely used in medical surveillance in occupational health and as a diagnostic test for obstructive and restrictive lung disease. We evaluated the effect of spirometry parameters on the risk of all-cause disability pension in a follow-up study of an occupationally active general population-based cohort.

Methods

We measured the pulmonary function of 3386 currently working participants of the Health 2000 Survey in the clinical phase at baseline using spirometry. We obtained the retirement events of the cohort from the nationwide register for 2000–2011. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine disability pensions.

Results

At baseline, we identified 111 (3.3%) participants with obstructive spirometry, 95 (2.8%) with restrictive spirometry, and 3180 controls without restriction or obstruction. The age, sex, educational level, body-mass index, co-morbidities (1 or ≥ 2), and the smoking-adjusted hazard ratio of disability pension was 1.07 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.64–1.78) for those with obstructive spirometry, and 1.44 (95% CI 0.89–2.32) for those with restrictive spirometry. As continuous variables, and divided into quartiles, the risk of the lowest quartile of forced ventilation capacity (FVC)% of predicted was 1.49 (95%CI 1.10–2.01) and forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁)% of predicted 1.66 (95%CI: 1.23–2.24) in comparison to the highest quartile in the adjusted models.

Conclusions

Obstructive or restrictive spirometry did not predict disability pension when dichotomized classified variables (normal compared to abnormal) were used. As continuous variables and when divided into quartiles, lower lung volumes showed an increase in the risk of disability pension. Physicians should take this into account when they use spirometry as a prognostic factor of work disability.

The impact of comorbidities on mortality among men and women with COPD: report from the OLIN COPD study

BACKGROUND

Comorbidities probably contribute to the increased mortality observed among subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but sex differences in the prognostic impact of comorbidities have rarely been evaluated in population-based studies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of common comorbidities, cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes mellitus (DM), and anxiety/depression (A/D), on mortality among men and women with and without airway obstruction in a population-based study.

METHODS

All subjects with airway obstruction [forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV₁)/(forced) vital capacity ((F)VC) <0.70, n = 993] were, together with age- and sex-matched referents, identified after examinations of population-based cohorts in 2002-2004. Spirometric groups: normal lung function (NLF) and COPD (post-bronchodilator FEV₁/(F)VC <0.70) and additionally, LLN-COPD (FEV₁/(F)VC <lower limit of normal). Mortality data was collected until December 2015.

RESULTS

In COPD, the prevalence of CVD and DM was higher in men, whereas the prevalence of A/D was higher in women. The cumulative mortality was significantly higher in COPD than NLF, and higher in men than women in both groups. Among women with COPD, CVD and A/D but not DM increased the risk of death independent of age, body mass index, smoking habits, and disease severity, whereas among men DM and A/D but not CVD increased the risk for death. When the LLN criterion was applied, the pattern was similar.

CONCLUSION

There were sex-dependent differences regarding the impact of comorbidities on prognosis in COPD. Even though the prevalence of CVD was higher in men, the impact of CVD on mortality was higher in women, and despite higher prevalence of A/D in women, the impact on mortality was similar in both sexes. The reviews of this paper are available via the supplemental material section.

Sequential screening for lung cancer in a high-risk group: randomised controlled trial: LungSEARCH: a randomised controlled trial of Surveillance using sputum and imaging for the EARly detection of lung Cancer in a High-risk group

BACKGROUND

Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening detects early-stage lung cancer and reduces mortality. We proposed a sequential approach targeted to a high-risk group as a potentially efficient screening strategy.

METHODS

LungSEARCH was a national multicentre randomised trial. Current/ex-smokers with mild/moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were allocated (1:1) to have 5 years surveillance or not. Screened participants provided annual sputum samples for cytology and cytometry, and if abnormal were offered annual LDCT and autofluorescence bronchoscopy (AFB). Those with normal sputum provided annual samples. The primary end-point was the percentage of lung cancers diagnosed at stage I/II (nonsmall cell) or limited disease (small cell).

RESULTS

1568 participants were randomised during 2007-2011 from 10 UK centres. 85.2% of those screened provided an adequate baseline sputum sample. There were 42 lung cancers among 785 screened individuals and 36 lung cancers among 783 controls. 54.8% (23 out of 42) of screened individuals versus 45.2% (14 out of 31) of controls with known staging were diagnosed with early-stage disease (one-sided p=0.24). Relative risk was 1.21 (95% CI 0.75-1.95) or 0.82 (95% CI 0.52-1.31) for early-stage or advanced cancers, respectively. Overall sensitivity for sputum (in those randomised to surveillance) was low (40.5%) with a cumulative false-positive rate (FPR) of 32.8%. 55% of cancers had normal sputum results throughout. Among sputum-positive individuals who had AFB, sensitivity was 45.5% and cumulative FPR was 39.5%; the corresponding measures for those who had LDCT were 100% and 16.1%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our sequential strategy, using sputum cytology/cytometry to select high-risk individuals for AFB and LDCT, did not lead to a clear stage shift and did not improve the efficiency of lung cancer screening.

Advances in spirometry testing for lung function analysis

Introduction: Spirometry, the most common lung function test, is used to evaluate individuals with respiratory complaints or known respiratory disease. However, its underutilization and the misinterpretation of its parameters are causes for concern. Areas covered: This review describes new spirometry-derived metrics, new reference equations, recent recommendations for presentation of results, recent spirometry-based prevalence studies, and technological advances in spirometry equipment. Expert opinion: The underutilization of spirometry can be overcome by increasing access to portable, hand-held, and user-friendly spirometers, together with strategies that increase awareness of the importance of spirometry. New metrics derived from spirometry, together with traditional spirometric criteria, can identify individuals with structural lung disease and respiratory morbidity. Some problems with the reference equations were solved by the Global Lung Function Initiative (GLI), which covers a wider age range and more ethnic groups and provides limits of normality using the z-score. Despite these advantages, the GLI equations lack data from large populations (especially those from Africa, South Asia, and Latin America) and greater representation of older people. Another disadvantage attributed to the GLI is the lack of predicted values for peak expiratory flow and other airflows, limiting the interpretation of the maximal expiratory flow-volume curve.

Airflow limitation classified with the fixed ratio or the lower limit of normal and cause-specific mortality - A prospective study

BACKGROUND

There is controversy as to whether airflow limitation should be defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁)/vital capacity (VC) < 0.7 or as FEV₁/VC< the lower limit of normal (LLN). The aim was to examine whether different definitions of airflow limitation differ in predicting mortality.

METHODS

Longitudinal prospective study of a national cohort of Swedish workers (199,408 men; 7988 women), aged 20-64 years with spirometry without bronchodilation at baseline followed from 1979 until death, or censorship at 2010. Airflow limitation (AL) by Global Obstructive Lung Disease criteria, AL_GOLD, was defined as FEV₁/VC < 0.7; AL_LLN as FEV₁/VC < LLN. All all-cause, COPD and cardiovascular disease mortality was analyzed among men and women in relation to AL_GOLD and AL_LLN, adjusted for age and smoking.

RESULTS

Among men, all-cause mortality risks were similar by airflow limitation criteria: AL_GOLD RR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.26-1.38; AL_LLN, RR = 1.37, 95% CI 1.31-1.44. The risk estimates were also similar by airflow limitation definition for cardiovascular mortality and for COPD mortality. Among women, all-cause mortality was also similar by airflow limitation criteria, but significantly higher as compared to men: AL_GOLD RR = 2.10, 95% CI 1.66-2.66; AL_LLN, RR = 2.09, 95% CI 1.66-2.62. Also cardiovascular and COPD mortality by airflow limitation criteria was significantly higher among women as compared to men.

CONCLUSIONS

Defined either as FEV₁/VC < 0.7 or as FEV₁/VC < LLN, airflow limitation predicted excess mortality risk of similar magnitude. Mortality in relation to airflow limitation was higher among women compared to men.

Airway obstruction, serum vitamin D and mortality in a 33-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and low vitamin D status predict mortality, but their combined effect on mortality remains inconclusive. We aimed to investigate a joint effect of airway obstruction and vitamin D status on mortality in a nationally representative cohort.

METHODS

We analysed data of 6676 Finnish adults participating between 1978 and 1980 in a national health examination survey, undergoing spirometry and having all necessary data collected. We followed them up in national registers through record linkage until 31 December 2011. We categorised the subjects with obstruction using the lower limit of normal (LLN) and the measured serum 25-hydroxyvitamin-D (s-25(OH)D) into tertiles.

RESULTS

Both obstruction and low s-25(OH)D independently predicted mortality in a multivariate model adjusted also for age, sex, smoking, education, leisure physical activity, body mass index, asthma and serum C-reactive protein. However, a statistically significant (p = 0.007) interaction emerged: the adjusted mortality HRs (95% CI's) for s-25(OH)D in tertiles among the subjects without and with obstruction were 1.00 (lowest), 0.96 (0.87-1.05) and 0.89 (0.81-0.98); and 1.00, 0.96 (0.71-1.31) and 0.57 (0.40-0.80), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, obstruction and low s-25(OH)D predict mortality independently of each other. Our findings suggest that low vitamin D status might be particularly detrimental among subjects with obstruction.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in patients with lung cancer: prevalence, impact and management challenges

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer share a common etiological factor (cigarette smoking) and usually coexist in everyday clinical practice. The prevalence of COPD among newly diagnosed patients with lung cancer sometimes exceeds 50%. COPD is an independent risk factor (2-4 times higher than non-COPD subjects) for lung cancer development. The presence of emphysema in addition to other factors (e.g., smoking history, age) could be incorporated into risk scores in order to define the most appropriate target group for lung cancer screening using low-dose computed tomography. Clinical management of patients with coexistence of COPD and lung cancer requires a multidisciplinary oncology board that includes a pulmonologist. Detailed evaluation (lung function tests, cardiopulmonary exercise test) and management (inhaled drugs, smoking cessation, pulmonary rehabilitation) of COPD should be taken into account for lung cancer treatment (surgical approach, radiotherapy).

Tuberculosis, Airway Obstruction and Mortality in a Finnish Population

There is little long-term follow-up data concerning the association between past pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), airway obstruction and mortality. We aimed to analyse a national health examination survey data from 6701 adult Finns undergoing spirometry between 1978 and 1980 (follow-up through 2013). We identified TB either through a disease history or by a TB-indicative scar on a chest x-ray. We specified obstruction using the lower limit of normal (LLN) and classified severity using the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stages 1-4. After adjusting for smoking and other confounders, past TB associated with obstruction. Compared to non-TB patients, the adjusted odds ratio (OR; 95% CI) of obstruction reached 2.21 (1.52-3.21) among patients with a scar recorded by one radiologist, 2.48 (1.63-3.78) when recorded by both radiologists and 4.59 (2.86-7.37) among patients with a disease history. Among those with neither past TB nor obstruction, with past TB only, with an obstruction only and with both, we found hazard ratios (HRs; 95% CIs) for subsequent mortality of 1.00 (reference), 1.11 (1.03-1.20), 1.62 (1.31-2.00) and 1.77 (1.45-2.16), adjusted for age, gender, smoking, body mass index (BMI), physical activity, education and general health. In conclusion, past TB strongly determines obstruction, although on its own quite weakly predicts premature death. TB and obstruction combined predict an additive mortality pattern.

Mid-arm and calf circumferences are stronger mortality predictors than body mass index for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is currently the third most common cause of death in the world. Patients with COPD experience airflow obstruction, weight loss, skeletal muscle dysfunction, and comorbidities. Anthropometric indicators are risk factors for mortality in geriatric assessment.

Purpose

This study examined and compared the associations of anthropometric indicators, such as low body mass index (BMI), low mid-arm circumference (MAC), and low calf circumference (CC), with the prediction of a 3-year follow-up mortality risk in patients with COPD.

Methods

We recruited nonhospitalized patients with COPD without acute conditions from a general hospital in Taiwan. The BMI, MAC, and CC of all patients were measured, and they were followed for 3 years through telephone interviews and chart reviews. The Kaplan–Meier survival curves stratified by BMI, MAC, and CC were analyzed. Variables univariately associated with survival were entered into a multivariate Cox regression model. The Bayesian information criterion was used to compare the predictive ability of the three anthropometric indicators to predict mortality rate.

Results

In total, 104 patients were included (mean ± standard deviation age, 74.2±6.9 years; forced expiratory volume in 1 second [%], 58.4±20.4 predicted; males, 94.2%); 22 patients (21.2%) died during the 36-month follow-up. During this long-term follow-up, the three anthropometric indicators could predict mortality risk in patients with COPD (low BMI [<21 kg/m²], hazard ratio [HR] =2.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] =1.10–7.10; low MAC [<23.5 cm], HR =3.09, 95% CI =1.30–7.38; low CC [<30 cm], HR =4.40, 95% CI =1.82–10.63). CC showed the strongest potential in predicting the mortality risk, followed by MAC and BMI.

Conclusion

Among the three anthropometric variables examined, CC can be considered a strong predictor of mortality risk in patients with COPD.