The association between white blood cell count and outcomes in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Effect of Antifibrotic Use on Mortality in Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Rationale: Observational studies report a significant protective effect of antifibrotics on mortality among patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Many of these studies, however, were subject to immortal time bias because of the mishandling of delayed antifibrotic initiation. Objectives: To evaluate the antifibrotic effect on mortality among patients with IPF using appropriate statistical methods that avoid immortal time bias. Methods: Using a large administrative database, we identified 10,289 patients with IPF, of whom 2,300 used antifibrotics. Treating delayed antifibrotic initiation as a time-dependent variable, three statistical methods were used to control baseline characteristics and avoid immortal time bias. Stratified analysis was performed for patients who initiated antifibrotics early and those who initiated treatment late. For comparison, methods that mishandle immortal time bias were performed. A simulation study was conducted to demonstrate the performance of these models in a wide range of scenarios. Results: All three statistical methods yielded nonsignificant results for the antifibrotic effect on mortality, with the stratified analysis for patients with early antifibrotic initiation suggesting evidence for reduced mortality risk (for all patients, hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-1.01; P = 0.08; for patients who were 65 years or older, hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.98; P = 0.03). Methods that mishandle immortal time bias demonstrated significantly lower mortality risk for antifibrotic users. Bias of these methods was evident in the simulation study, where appropriate methods performed well with little to no bias. Conclusions: Findings in this study did not confirm an association between antifibrotics and mortality, with a stratified analysis showing support for a potential treatment effect with early treatment initiation.

Antifibrotics and mortality in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: external validity and avoidance of immortal time bias

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Pooled analyses of previous randomized controlled trials reported that antifibrotics improved survival in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but the results were only based on short-term outcome data from selected patients who met strict criteria. Observational studies/meta-analyses also suggested that antifibrotics improve survival, but these studies failed to control for immortal time bias that considerably exaggerates drug effects. Therefore, whether antifibrotics truly improve long-term survival in patients with IPF in the real world remains undetermined and requires external validity.

METHODS

We used data from the Japanese National Claims Database to estimate the intention-to-treat effect of antifibrotics on mortality. To address immortal time bias, we employed models treating antifibrotic initiation as a time-dependent covariate and target trial emulation (TTE), both incorporating new-user designs for antifibrotics and treating lung transplantation as a competing event.

RESULTS

Of 30,154 patients with IPF, 14,525 received antifibrotics. Multivariate Fine-Gray models with antifibrotic initiation as a time-dependent covariate revealed that compared with no treatment, nintedanib (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81-0.89) and pirfenidone (aHR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.86-0.93) were associated with reduced mortality. The TTE model also replicated the associations of nintedanib (aHR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.65-0.74) and pirfenidone (aHR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.78-0.85) with reduced mortality. Subgroup analyses confirmed this association regardless of age, sex, and comorbidities, excluding certain subpopulations.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this large-scale real-world analysis support the generalizability of the association between antifibrotics and improved survival in various IPF populations.

Modified blood cell GAP model as a prognostic biomarker in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Background

The Gender, Age and Physiology (GAP) model is a simple mortality prediction tool in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis that uses demographic and physiological variables available at initial evaluation. White blood cell variables may have associations with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis outcomes. We evaluated whether incorporating blood cell counts in modified GAP (cGAP) models would improve outcome prediction in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Patients and methods

This retrospective analysis included pooled data from phase 3 randomised trials of pirfenidone in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (ASCEND, CAPACITY 004, CAPACITY 006). Study outcomes (disease progression, all-cause mortality, all-cause hospitalisation, respiratory-related hospitalisation) were evaluated during the initial 1-year period. Shared frailty models were used to evaluate associations between continuous and categorical baseline white and red blood cell parameters and study outcomes in a bivariate context, and to evaluate the impact of adding continuous monocyte count (cGAP1) or white and red blood cell parameters (cGAP2) to traditional GAP variables in a multivariable context based on C-statistics changes.

Results

Data were pooled from 1247 patients (pirfenidone, n=623; placebo, n=624). Significant associations (bivariate analyses) were idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis progression with neutrophil and eosinophil counts; all-cause mortality with monocyte and neutrophil counts; all-cause hospitalisation with monocyte count, neutrophil count and haemoglobin level; and respiratory-related hospitalisation with monocyte count, neutrophil count and haemoglobin level. In multivariate analyses, C-statistics were highest for the cGAP2 model for each of the outcomes.

Conclusion

Modified GAP models incorporating monocyte counts alone or plus other white and red blood cell variables may be useful to improve prediction of outcomes in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Identification of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis and Prediction of Disease Severity via Machine Learning Analysis of Comprehensive Metabolic Panel and Complete Blood Count Data

BACKGROUND

Diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) typically relies on high-resolution computed tomography imaging (HRCT) or histopathology, while monitoring disease severity is done via frequent pulmonary function testing (PFT). More reliable and convenient methods of diagnosing fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD) type and monitoring severity would allow for early identification and enhance current therapeutic interventions. This study tested the hypothesis that a machine learning (ML) ensemble analysis of comprehensive metabolic panel (CMP) and complete blood count (CBC) data can accurately distinguish IPF from connective tissue disease ILD (CTD-ILD) and predict disease severity as seen with PFT.

METHODS

Outpatient data with diagnosis of IPF or CTD-ILD (n = 103 visits by 53 patients) were analyzed via ML methodology to evaluate (1) IPF vs CTD-ILD diagnosis; (2) %predicted Diffusing Capacity of Lung for Carbon Monoxide (DLCO) moderate or mild vs severe; (3) %predicted Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) moderate or mild vs severe; and (4) %predicted FVC mild vs moderate or severe.

RESULTS

ML methodology identified IPF from CTD-ILD with AUCTEST = 0.893, while PFT was classified as DLCO moderate or mild vs severe with AUCTEST = 0.749, FVC moderate or mild vs severe with AUCTEST = 0.741, and FVC mild vs moderate or severe with AUCTEST = 0.739. Key features included albumin, alanine transaminase, %lymphocytes, hemoglobin, %eosinophils, white blood cell count, %monocytes, and %neutrophils.

CONCLUSION

Analysis of CMP and CBC data via proposed ML methodology offers the potential to distinguish IPF from CTD-ILD and predict severity on associated PFT with accuracy that meets or exceeds current clinical practice.

Stem cell-based therapy for COVID-19

While The World Health Organization (WHO) has announced that COVID-19 is no longer a public health emergency of international concern(PHEIC), the risk of reinfection and new emerging variants still makes it crucial to study and work towards the prevention of COVID-19. Stem cell and stem cell-like derivatives have shown some promising results in clinical trials and preclinical studies as an alternative treatment option for the pulmonary illnesses caused by the COVID-19 and can be used as a potential vaccine. In this review, we will systematically summarize the pathophysiological process and potential mechanisms underlying stem cell-based therapy in COVID-19, and the registered COVID-19 clinical trials, and engineered extracellular vesicle as a potential vaccine for preventing COVID-19.

The influence of immortal time bias in observational studies examining associations of antifibrotic therapy with survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: A simulation study

Background

Immortal time bias (ITB) has been overlooked in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We aimed to identify the presence of ITB in observational studies examining associations between antifibrotic therapy and survival in patients with IPF and illustrate how ITB may affect effect size estimates of those associations.

Methods

Immortal time bias was identified in observational studies using the ITB Study Assessment Checklist. We used a simulation study to illustrate how ITB may affect effect size estimates of antifibrotic therapy on survival in patients with IPF based on four statistical techniques including time-fixed, exclusion, time-dependent and landmark methods.

Results

Of the 16 included IPF studies, ITB was detected in 14 studies, while there were insufficient data for assessment in two others. Our simulation study showed that use of time-fixed [hazard ratio (HR) 0.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47-0.64] and exclusion methods (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.67-0.92) overestimated the effectiveness of antifibrotic therapy on survival in simulated subjects with IPF, in comparison of the time-dependent method (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.79-1.09). The influence of ITB was mitigated using the 1 year landmark method (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.58-0.81), compared to the time-fixed method.

Conclusion

The effectiveness of antifibrotic therapy on survival in IPF can be overestimated in observational studies, if ITB is mishandled. This study adds to the evidence for addressing the influence of ITB in IPF and provides several recommendations to minimize ITB. Identifying the presence of ITB should be routinely considered in future IPF studies, with the time-dependent method being an optimal approach to minimize ITB.

The extracellular sialidase NEU3 primes neutrophils

Some extracellular glycoconjugates have sialic acid as the terminal sugar, and sialidases are enzymes that remove this sugar. Mammals have 4 sialidases and can be elevated in inflammation and fibrosis. In this report, we show that incubation of human neutrophils with the extracellular human sialidase NEU3, but not NEU1, NEU2 or NEU4, induces human male and female neutrophils to change from a round to a more amoeboid morphology, causes the primed human neutrophil markers CD11b, CD18, and CD66a to localize to the cell cortex, and decreases the localization of the unprimed human neutrophil markers CD43 and CD62-L at the cell cortex. NEU3, but not the other 3 sialidases, also causes human male and female neutrophils to increase their F-actin content. Human neutrophils treated with NEU3 show a decrease in cortical levels of Sambucus nigra lectin staining and an increase in cortical levels of peanut agglutinin staining, indicating a NEU3-induced desialylation. The inhibition of NEU3 by the NEU3 inhibitor 2-acetylpyridine attenuated the NEU3 effect on neutrophil morphology, indicating that the effect of NEU3 is dependent on its enzymatic activity. Together, these results indicate that NEU3 can prime human male and female neutrophils, and that NEU3 is a potential regulator of inflammation.

Fibrotic Lung Disease Alters Neutrophil Trafficking and Promotes Neutrophil Elastase and Extracellular Trap Release

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive, irreversible disease characterized by collagen deposition within the interstitium of the lung. This impairs gas exchange and results in eventual respiratory failure. Clinical studies show a correlation between elevated neutrophil numbers and IPF disease progression; however, the mechanistic roles neutrophils play in this disease are not well described. In the present study, we describe alterations to the trafficking and function of neutrophils after the development of fibrosis. We observed increased numbers of total and aged neutrophils in peripheral tissues of fibrotic mice. This appeared to be driven by an upregulation of neutrophil chemokine Cxcl2 by lung cells. In addition, neutrophil recruitment back to the bone marrow for clearance appeared to be impaired, because we saw decreased aged neutrophils in the bone marrow of fibrotic mice. Neutrophils in fibrosis were activated, because ex vivo assays showed increased elastase and extracellular trap release by neutrophils from fibrotic mice. This likely mediated disease exacerbation, because mice exhibiting a progressive disease phenotype with greater weight loss and mortality had more activated neutrophils and increased levels of extracellular DNA present in their lungs than did mice with a nonprogressive disease phenotype. These findings further our understanding of the dynamics of neutrophil populations and their trafficking in progressive fibrotic lung disease and may help inform treatments targeting neutrophil function for patients with IPF experiencing disease exacerbation in the future.

Neutrophil lymphocyte ratio as an indicator for disease progression in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

RATIONALE

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive fibrotic lung disease. Patients present at different stages and disease course is varied. Blood monocytes have been linked to all-cause mortality, and neutrophils to progression to IPF in patients with the indeterminate for usual interstitial pneumonia CT pattern.

OBJECTIVE

To determine association between blood monocytes, neutrophils and lymphocytes levels (and their derived indexes), with lung function decline and mortality in IPF.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of an IPF cohort (n=128) who had their first clinical visit at the Oxford Interstitial Lung Disease Service between 2013 and 2017. Association between blood monocytes, neutrophils, lymphocytes and derived indexes (within 4 months of visit) and decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) and all-cause mortality were assessed using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to assess time-to-event for 10% FVC decline and mortality for patients dichotomised to high and low leucocyte counts.

RESULTS

Median length of follow-up was 31.0 months (IQR 16.2-42.4); 41.4% demonstrated FVC decline >10% per year and 43.8% died. In multivariate models (incorporating age, gender and initial FVC%), raised neutrophils, lymphopaenia and neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio were associated with FVC decline (p≤0.01); while both monocytes and neutrophil levels (and their derived indexes) were associated with all-cause mortality (p≤0.01). Kaplan-Meier analysis also showed association between neutrophils and its derived indexes but not monocyte, with FVC decline.

CONCLUSION

Blood neutrophil and lymphopaenia are more sensitive than monocytes as prognostic indicators of disease progression in those with established IPF.

Neutrophil Extracellular Traps in ANCA-Associated Vasculitis and Interstitial Lung Disease: A Scoping Review

Background: Deregulated neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) formation is implicated in various diseases, including ANCA-associated vasculitis and pulmonary fibrosis (PF). Lung involvement is frequent in AAV, and interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) are strongly related to MPO-ANCA positivity and mainly reported in microscopic polyangiitis. The association between AAV and ILD is a strong indicator of poor prognosis and limited survival. Neutrophils, ANCA and NET interplay in PF development in AAV. This study aimed to review the literature concerning the implications of NET in lung fibrogenesis specifically focused on AAV associated with ILD, and the potential of NET as a theranostic marker. Methods: Through scoping review methodology, we used a descriptive thematic analysis to understand the pathogenic role of NETs in patients with AAV and pulmonary fibrosis and their further role as a theranostic marker of this disease. Results: The implications of NET in the pathogenesis of AAV and ILD, as well as an association between these two diseases, have been identified, but the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms are still unknown. The pharmacological or genetic inhibition of NET release reduces disease severity in multiple inflammatory disease models, indicating that NETs are potential therapeutic targets. In this regard, despite the lack of clinical data, we may hypothesise that an optimal management of AAV-ILD patients would require not only B-cells targeted therapy, but also NETs inhibition. Conclusion: Preliminary findings seem to display a lack of efficacy of traditional immunosuppressants, such as Rituximab, in this subset of patients, while to date no patients suffering from a definite ILD have been enrolled in clinical trials. Further insights would be provided by their employment, as a combination treatment, in common clinical practice. Although we can imagine that the inhibition of NETs in patients with AAV-ILD could reduce severity and mortality, we still lack the scientific basis that could improve our understanding of the disease from a molecular point of view.

Fibrotic lung disease inhibits innate immune responses to Staphylococcal pneumonia via impaired neutrophil and macrophage function

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and fatal disease characterized by collagen deposition within the lung interstitium. Bacterial infection is associated with increased morbidity and more rapid mortality in IPF patient populations, and pathogens such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) are commonly isolated from the lungs of hospitalized patients with IPF. Despite this, the effects of fibrotic lung injury on critical immune responses to infection remain unknown. In the present study, we show that, like humans with IPF, fibrotic mice infected with MRSA exhibit increased morbidity and mortality compared with uninfected fibrotic mice. We determine that fibrosis conferred a defect in MRSA clearance compared with nonfibrotic mice, resulting from blunted innate immune responses. We show that fibrosis inhibited neutrophil intracellular killing of MRSA through impaired neutrophil elastase release and oxidative radical production. Additionally, we demonstrate that lung macrophages from fibrotic mice have impaired phagocytosis of MRSA. Our study describes potentially novel impairments of antimicrobial responses upon pulmonary fibrosis development, and our findings suggest a possible mechanism for why patients with IPF are at greater risk of morbidity and mortality related to infection.

Mortality and survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

There are substantial advances in diagnosis and treatment for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but without much evidence available on recent mortality and survival trends.

Methods

A narrative synthesis approach was used to investigate the mortality trends, then meta-analyses for survival trends were carried out based on various time periods.

Results

Six studies reported the mortality data for IPF in 22 countries, and 62 studies (covering 63 307 patients from 20 countries) reported survival data for IPF. Age-standardised mortality for IPF varied from ∼0.5 to ∼12 per 100 000 population per year after year 2000. There were increased mortality trends for IPF in Australia, Brazil, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and UK, while Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Romania and the USA showed decreased mortality trends. The overall 3-year and 5-year cumulative survival rates (CSRs) were 61.8% (95% CI 58.7-64.9; I2=97.1%) and 45.6% (95% CI 41.5-49.7; I2=97.7%), respectively. Prior to 2010, the pooled 3-year CSR was 59.9% (95% CI 55.8-64.1; I2=95.8%), then not significantly (p=0.067) increased to 66.2% (95% CI 62.9-69.5; I2=92.6%) in the 2010s decade. After excluding three studies in which no patients received antifibrotics after year 2010, the pooled 3-year CSRs significantly (p=0.039) increased to 67.4% (95% CI 63.9-70.9; I2=93.1%) in the 2010s decade.

Discussion

IPF is a diagnosis associated with high mortality. There was no observed increasing survival trend for patients with IPF before year 2010, with then a switch to an improvement, which is probably multifactorial.

Use of peripheral neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and peripheral monocyte levels to predict survival in fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (fHP): a multicentre retrospective cohort study

The factors determining disease course and survival in fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (fHP) have not been fully elucidated.The aim of this study was to describe the characteristics of patients with fHP in a real-world cohort and investigate factors associated with worse outcomes. We aimed to explore the use of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and peripheral blood monocyte levels in predicting mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective, multicentre, observational UK cohort study.

RESULTS

Patients with fHP were significantly younger than those with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) (median age fHP 73 vs IPF 75 years) and were much more likely to be woman (fHP 61% vs IPF 26%). In almost half of all fHP cases (49%, n=104/211), no causative antigen was identified from either the history or specific antigen testing. Overall, fHP was associated with a better survival than IPF, although median survival of both groups was poor (fHP 62 months vs IPF 52 months).IPF survival in patients with a high NLR was significantly lower than those with a low NLR (44 vs 83 months). A monocyte count ≥0.95 K/uL also predicted significantly poorer outcomes for patients with IPF compared with <0.95 K/uL (33 vs 57 months). In contrast, NLR and monocyte count did not predict survival in the fHP cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Although fHP has a statistically lower mortality than IPF, absolute survival time of both conditions is poor. High baseline NLR and absolute monocyte counts predict worse survival in IPF but not in fHP, highlighting the potential for divergence in their pathogenic mechanisms.

Impact of Antifibrotic Therapy on Mortality and Acute Exacerbation in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Nintedanib and pirfenidone are two antifibrotic medications currently approved for slowing the rate of lung function decline in IPF, but data on treatment effect on mortality and risk of acute exacerbation (AE) remains limited or unknown.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Does antifibrotic treatment decrease risk of mortality and AE?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

A comprehensive search of several databases, including Ovid MEDLINE(R), Ovid Embase, Ovid Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Ovid Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Scopus, was conducted. Studies were included if they were original articles comparing mortality or AE events in IPF patients with and without antifibrotic treatment. Relative risk (RR) with 95%CI was pooled using random-effects meta-analyses with inverse variance method, assessing two primary outcomes of all-cause mortality and AE risk.

RESULTS

A total of 12,956 patients across 26 studies (eight randomized controlled trials and 18 cohort studies) were included in the meta-analysis. Antifibrotic treatment was associated with decreased risk of all-cause mortality with a pooled RR of 0.55 (95% CI, 0.45-0.66) and I2 of 82%. This effect was consistent across additional subgroup analyses, including stratification by study type, risk of bias, duration of follow-up, and antifibrotic subtype. Antifibrotic treatment also reduced the risk of AE, with a pooled RR of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.53-0.76), and I2 of 0%. Effect on AE risk was consistent across subgroup analyses by study type and for nintedanib but not for pirfenidone.

INTERPRETATION

Antifibrotic treatment appears to reduce the risk of all-cause mortality and AE in IPF. Despite greater heterogeneity with pooled analysis, its effect was robust in subgroup analyses by study type, duration of follow-up, and antifibrotic subtype.

Neutrophils Modulate Fibrogenesis in Chronic Pulmonary Diseases

Chronic inflammatory pulmonary diseases are characterized by recurrent and persistent inflammation of the airways, commonly associated with poor clinical outcomes. Although their etiologies vary tremendously, airway neutrophilia is a common feature of these diseases. Neutrophils, as vital regulators linking innate and adaptive immune systems, are a double-edged sword in the immune response of the lung involving mechanisms such as phagocytosis, degranulation, neutrophil extracellular trap formation, exosome secretion, release of cytokines and chemokines, and autophagy. Although neutrophils serve as strong defenders against extracellular pathogens, neutrophils and their components can trigger various cascades leading to inflammation and fibrogenesis. Here, we review current studies to elucidate the versatile roles of neutrophils in chronic pulmonary inflammatory diseases and describe the common pathogenesis of these diseases. This may provide new insights into therapeutic strategies for chronic lung diseases.

Changes in Neutrophil-Lymphocyte or Platelet-Lymphocyte Ratios and Their Associations with Clinical Outcomes in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Identification of prognostic and predictive biomarkers in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) could aid assessment of disease severity and prediction of progression and response to treatment. This analysis examined reference ranges for neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in IPF, and the relationship between NLR or PLR changes and clinical outcomes over 12 months. This post hoc analysis included patients with IPF from the Phase III, double-blind trials of pirfenidone, ASCEND (NCT01366209) and CAPACITY (NCT00287716 and NCT00287729). The relationship between change from baseline to Month 12 in NLR or PLR (divided into quartiles (Q1-Q4)) and outcomes (mortality, respiratory hospitalization, declines in lung function, exercise capacity and quality of life) was assessed. Estimated reference ranges at baseline for all patients analyzed (n = 1334) were 1.1-6.4 for NLR and 56.8-250.5 for PLR. Significant trends were observed across NLR and PLR quartiles for all outcomes in placebo-treated patients, with patients manifesting the greatest NLR or PLR changes experiencing the worst outcomes. These results suggest that the greatest NLR or PLR changes over 12 months were associated with worse clinical outcomes. Further research is needed to determine the utility of NLR and PLR as prognostic biomarkers in IPF.