Using clinical information to make individualized prognostic predictions in people at ultra high risk for psychosis

Improving prediction of psychosis in youth at clinical high-risk: pre-baseline symptom duration and cortical thinning as moderators of the NAPLS2 risk calculator

BACKGROUND

Clinical implementation of risk calculator models in the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has been hindered by heterogeneous risk distributions across study cohorts which could be attributed to pre-ascertainment illness progression. To examine this, we tested whether the duration of attenuated psychotic symptom (APS) worsening prior to baseline moderated performance of the North American prodrome longitudinal study 2 (NAPLS2) risk calculator. We also examined whether rates of cortical thinning, another marker of illness progression, bolstered clinical prediction models.

METHODS

Participants from both the NAPLS2 and NAPLS3 samples were classified as either 'long' or 'short' symptom duration based on time since APS increase prior to baseline. The NAPLS2 risk calculator model was applied to each of these groups. In a subset of NAPLS3 participants who completed follow-up magnetic resonance imaging scans, change in cortical thickness was combined with the individual risk score to predict conversion to psychosis.

RESULTS

The risk calculator models achieved similar performance across the combined NAPLS2/NAPLS3 sample [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.69], the long duration group (AUC = 0.71), and the short duration group (AUC = 0.71). The shorter duration group was younger and had higher baseline APS than the longer duration group. The addition of cortical thinning improved the prediction of conversion significantly for the short duration group (AUC = 0.84), with a moderate improvement in prediction for the longer duration group (AUC = 0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that early illness progression differs among CHR-P patients, is detectable with both clinical and neuroimaging measures, and could play an essential role in the prediction of clinical outcomes.

Recent Updates on Predicting Conversion in Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review highlights recent advances in the prediction and treatment of psychotic conversion. Over the past 25 years, research into the prodromal phase of psychotic illness has expanded with the promise of early identification of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis who are likely to convert to psychosis.

RECENT FINDINGS

Meta-analyses highlight conversion rates between 20 and 30% within 2-3 years using existing clinical criteria while research into more specific risk factors, biomarkers, and refinement of psychosis risk calculators has exploded, improving our ability to predict psychotic conversion with greater accuracy. Recent studies highlight risk factors and biomarkers likely to contribute to earlier identification and provide insight into neurodevelopmental abnormalities, CHR subtypes, and interventions that can target specific risk profiles linked to neural mechanisms. Ongoing initiatives that assess longer-term (> 5-10 years) outcome of CHR participants can provide valuable information about predictors of later conversion and diagnostic outcomes while large-scale international biomarker studies provide hope for precision intervention that will alter the course of early psychosis globally.

Dynamic Prediction of Outcomes for Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: A Joint Modeling Approach

Importance

Leveraging the dynamic nature of clinical variables in the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has the potential to significantly improve the performance of outcome prediction models.

Objective

To improve performance of prediction models and elucidate dynamic clinical profiles using joint modeling to predict conversion to psychosis and symptom remission.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Data were collected as part of the third wave of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 3), which is a 9-site prospective longitudinal study. Participants were individuals aged 12 to 30 years who met criteria for a psychosis-risk syndrome. Clinical, neurocognitive, and demographic variables were collected at baseline and at multiple follow-up visits, beginning at 2 months and up to 24 months. An initial feature selection process identified longitudinal clinical variables that showed differential change for each outcome group across 2 months. With these variables, a joint modeling framework was used to estimate the likelihood of eventual outcomes. Models were developed and tested in a 10-fold cross-validation framework. Clinical data were collected between February 2015 and November 2018, and data were analyzed from February 2022 to December 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Prediction models were built to predict conversion to psychosis and symptom remission. Participants met criteria for conversion if their positive symptoms reached the fully psychotic range and for symptom remission if they were subprodromal on the Scale of Psychosis-Risk Symptoms for a duration of 6 months or more.

Results

Of 488 included NAPLS 3 participants, 232 (47.5%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 18.2 (3.4) years. Joint models achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting conversion (balanced accuracy [BAC], 0.91) and remission (BAC, 0.99) compared with baseline models (conversion: BAC, 0.65; remission: BAC, 0.60). Clinical variables that showed differential change between outcome groups across a 2-month span, including measures of symptom severity and aspects of functioning, were also identified. Further, intra-individual risks for each outcome were more negatively correlated when using joint models (r = -0.92; P < .001) compared with baseline models (r = -0.50; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, joint models significantly outperformed baseline models in predicting both conversion and remission, demonstrating that monitoring short-term clinical change may help to parse heterogeneous dynamic clinical trajectories in a CHR-P population. These findings could inform additional study of targeted treatment selection and could move the field closer to clinical implementation of prediction models.

Predictors of transition in patients with clinical high risk for psychosis: an umbrella review

Diagnosis of a clinical high-risk (CHR) state enables timely treatment of individuals at risk for a psychotic disorder, thereby contributing to improving illness outcomes. However, only a minority of patients diagnosed with CHR will make the transition to overt psychosis. To identify patients most likely to benefit from early intervention, several studies have investigated characteristics that distinguish CHR patients who will later develop a psychotic disorder from those who will not. We aimed to summarize evidence from systematic reviews and meta-analyses on predictors of transition to psychosis in CHR patients, among characteristics and biomarkers assessed at baseline. A systematic search was conducted in Pubmed, Scopus, PsychInfo and Cochrane databases to identify reviews and meta-analyses of studies that investigated specific baseline predictors or biomarkers for transition to psychosis in CHR patients using a cross-sectional or longitudinal design. Non-peer-reviewed publications, gray literature, narrative reviews and publications not written in English were excluded from analyses. We provide a narrative synthesis of results from all included reviews and meta-analyses. For each included publication, we indicate the number of studies cited in each domain and its quality rating. A total of 40 publications (21 systematic reviews and 19 meta-analyses) that reviewed a total of 272 original studies qualified for inclusion. Baseline predictors most consistently associated with later transition included clinical characteristics such as attenuated psychotic and negative symptoms and functioning, verbal memory deficits and the electrophysiological marker of mismatch negativity. Few predictors reached a level of evidence sufficient to inform clinical practice, reflecting generalizability issues in a field characterized by studies with small, heterogeneous samples and relatively few transition events. Sample pooling and harmonization of methods across sites and projects are necessary to overcome these limitations.

Psychotic disorders as a framework for precision psychiatry

People with psychotic disorders can show marked interindividual variations in the onset of illness, responses to treatment and relapse, but they receive broadly similar clinical care. Precision psychiatry is an approach that aims to stratify people with a given disorder according to different clinical outcomes and tailor treatment to their individual needs. At present, interindividual differences in outcomes of psychotic disorders are difficult to predict on the basis of clinical assessment alone. Therefore, current research in psychosis seeks to build models that predict outcomes by integrating clinical information with a range of biological measures. Here, we review recent progress in the application of precision psychiatry to psychotic disorders and consider the challenges associated with implementing this approach in clinical practice.

Multivariate joint models for the dynamic prediction of psychosis in individuals with clinical high risk

This study attempted to construct and validate dynamic prediction via multivariate joint models and compare the prognostic performance of these models to both static and univariate joint models. Individuals with clinical high risk(CHR)(n = 289) were recruited and re-assessed for positive symptoms, general functions, and conversion to psychosis at 2-months, 1-year, and 2-years to develop the dynamic models. A multivariate joint model of positive psychotic symptoms was assessed using the Structured Interview for Prodromal Symptoms(SIPSp) and general function assessed by global assessment of functioning scores(GAFs) with time-to-conversion to psychosis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve(AUC) was used to test the accuracy of the models. Among 298 CHR individuals, 68 converted to psychosis within 2 years after the initial assessments. Multivariate joint models showed that declining GAFs and increasing SIPSp corresponded to significant and trending to significantly increased risk of psychosis onset and had much higher prognostic accuracy (cross-validated AUC=0.9) compared to the static model(AUC=0.6) and univariate joint models(cross-validated AUC=0.6-0.8). Our results showed that multivariate joint models could be highly efficient in forecasting psychosis onset for CHR individuals. Longitudinal assessments for psychopathology and general functions can be useful for dynamically predicting the prognosis of the pre-morbid phase of psychosis.

Predictive validity of psychosis risk models when applied to adolescent psychiatric patients

BACKGROUND

Several multivariate algorithms have been developed for predicting psychosis, as attempts to obtain better prognosis prediction than with current clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria. The models have typically been based on samples from specialized clinics. We evaluated the generalizability of 19 prediction models to clinical practice in an unselected adolescent psychiatric sample.

METHODS

In total, 153 adolescent psychiatric patients in the Helsinki Prodromal Study underwent an extensive baseline assessment including the SIPS interview and a neurocognitive battery, with 50 participants (33%) fulfilling CHR criteria. The adolescents were followed up for 7 years using comprehensive national registers. Assessed outcomes were (1) any psychotic disorder diagnosis (n = 18, 12%) and (2) first psychiatric hospitalization (n = 25, 16%) as an index of overall deterioration of functioning.

RESULTS

Most models improved the overall prediction accuracy over standard CHR criteria (area under the curve estimates ranging between 0.51 and 0.82), although the accuracy was worse than that in the samples used to develop the models, also when applied only to the CHR subsample. The best models for transition to psychosis included the severity of positive symptoms, especially delusions, and negative symptoms. Exploratory models revealed baseline negative symptoms, low functioning, delusions, and sleep problems in combination to be the best predictor of psychiatric hospitalization in the upcoming years.

CONCLUSIONS

Including the severity levels of both positive and negative symptomatology proved beneficial in predicting psychosis. Despite these advances, the applicability of extended psychosis-risk models to general psychiatric practice appears limited.

Can machine learning identify childhood characteristics that predict future development of bipolar disorder a decade later?

Early identification of bipolar disorder may provide appropriate support and treatment, however there is no current evidence for statistically predicting whether a child will develop bipolar disorder. Machine learning methods offer an opportunity for developing empirically-based predictors of bipolar disorder. This study examined whether bipolar disorder can be predicted using clinical data and machine learning algorithms. 492 children, ages 6-18 at baseline, were recruited from longitudinal case-control family studies. Participants were assessed at baseline, then followed-up after 10 years. In addition to sociodemographic data, children were assessed with psychometric scales, structured diagnostic interviews, and cognitive and social functioning assessments. Using the Balanced Random Forest algorithm, we examined whether the diagnostic outcome of full or subsyndromal bipolar disorder could be predicted from baseline data. 45 children (10%) developed bipolar disorder at follow-up. The model predicted subsequent bipolar disorder with 75% sensitivity, 76% specificity, and an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics of 75%. Predictors best differentiating between children who did or did not develop bipolar disorder were the Child Behavioral Checklist Externalizing and Internalizing behaviors, the Child Behavioral Checklist Total t-score, problematic school functions indexed through the Child Behavioral Checklist School Competence scale, and the Child Behavioral Checklist Anxiety/Depression and Aggression scales. Our study provides the first quantitative model to predict bipolar disorder. Longitudinal prediction may help clinicians assess children with emergent psychopathology for future risk of bipolar disorder, an area of clinical and scientific importance. Machine learning algorithms could be implemented to alert clinicians to risk for bipolar disorder.

Relationships between global functioning and neuropsychological predictors in subjects at high risk of psychosis or with a recent onset of depression

OBJECTIVE

Psychotic disorders are frequently associated with decline in functioning and cognitive difficulties are observed in subjects at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. In this work, we applied automatic approaches to neurocognitive and functioning measures, with the aim of investigating the link between global, social and occupational functioning, and cognition.

METHODS

102 CHR subjects and 110 patients with recent onset depression (ROD) were recruited. Global assessment of functioning (GAF) related to symptoms (GAF-S) and disability (GAF-D). and global functioning social (GF-S) and role (GF-R), at baseline and of the previous month and year, and a set of neurocognitive measures, were used for classification and regression.

RESULTS

Neurocognitive measures related to GF-R at baseline (r = 0.20, p = 0.004), GF-S at present (r = 0.14, p = 0.042) and of the past year (r = 0.19, p = 0.005), for GAF-F of the past month (r = 0.24, p < 0.001) and GAF-D of the past year (r = 0.28, p = 0.002). Classification reached values of balanced accuracy of 61% for GF-R and GAF-D.

CONCLUSION

We found that neurocognition was related to psychosocial functioning. More specifically, a deficit in executive functions was associated to poor social and occupational functioning.

A randomized Phase II trial evaluating efficacy, safety, and tolerability of oral BI 409306 in attenuated psychosis syndrome: Design and rationale

AIM

Attenuated psychosis syndrome (APS), a condition for further study in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-5, comprises psychotic symptoms that are qualitatively similar to those observed in schizophrenia but are less severe. Patients with APS are at high risk of converting to first-episode psychosis (FEP). As evidence for effective pharmacological interventions in APS is limited, novel treatments may provide symptomatic relief and delay/prevent psychotic conversion. This trial aims to investigate the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of BI 409306, a potent and selective phosphodiesterase-9 inhibitor, versus placebo in APS. Novel biomarkers of psychosis are being investigated.

METHODS

In this Phase II, multinational, double-blind, parallel-group trial, randomized (1:1) patients will receive BI 409306 50 mg or placebo twice daily for 52 weeks. Patients (n = 300) will be enrolled to determine time to remission of APS, time to FEP, change in everyday functional capacity (Schizophrenia Cognition Rating Scale), and change from baseline in Brief Assessment of Cognition composite score and Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale scores. Potential biomarkers of psychosis under investigation include functional measures of brain activity and automated speech analyses. Safety is being assessed throughout.

CONCLUSIONS

This trial will determine whether BI 409306 is superior to placebo in achieving sustainable remission of APS and improvements in cognition and functional capacity. These advances may provide evidence-based treatment options for symptomatic relief in APS. Furthermore, the study will assess the effect of BI 409306 on psychotic conversion and explore the identification of patients at risk for conversion using novel biomarkers.

Prevention of Suicidal Relapses in Adolescents With a Smartphone Application: Bayesian Network Analysis of a Preclinical Trial Using In Silico Patient Simulations

Background

Recently, artificial intelligence technologies and machine learning methods have offered attractive prospects to design and manage crisis response processes, especially in suicide crisis management. In other domains, most algorithms are based on big data to help diagnose and suggest rational treatment options in medicine. But data in psychiatry are related to behavior and clinical evaluation. They are more heterogeneous, less objective, and incomplete compared to other fields of medicine. Consequently, the use of psychiatric clinical data may lead to less accurate and sometimes impossible-to-build algorithms and provide inefficient digital tools. In this case, the Bayesian network (BN) might be helpful and accurate when constructed from expert knowledge. Medical Companion is a government-funded smartphone application based on repeated questions posed to the subject and algorithm-matched advice to prevent relapse of suicide attempts within several months.

Objective

Our paper aims to present our development of a BN algorithm as a medical device in accordance with the American Psychiatric Association digital healthcare guidelines and to provide results from a preclinical phase.

Methods

The experts are psychiatrists working in university hospitals who are experienced and trained in managing suicidal crises. As recommended when building a BN, we divided the process into 2 tasks. Task 1 is structure determination, representing the qualitative part of the BN. The factors were chosen for their known and demonstrated link with suicidal risk in the literature (clinical, behavioral, and psychometrics) and therapeutic accuracy (advice). Task 2 is parameter elicitation, with the conditional probabilities corresponding to the quantitative part. The 4-step simulation (use case) process allowed us to ensure that the advice was adapted to the clinical states of patients and the context.

Results

For task 1, in this formative part, we defined clinical questions related to the mental state of the patients, and we proposed specific factors related to the questions. Subsequently, we suggested specific advice related to the patient’s state. We obtained a structure for the BN with a graphical representation of causal relations between variables. For task 2, several runs of simulations confirmed the a priori model of experts regarding mental state, refining the precision of our model. Moreover, we noticed that the advice had the same distribution as the previous state and was clinically relevant. After 2 rounds of simulation, the experts found the exact match.

Conclusions

BN is an efficient methodology to build an algorithm for a digital assistant dedicated to suicidal crisis management. Digital psychiatry is an emerging field, but it needs validation and testing before being used with patients. Similar to psychotropics, any medical device requires a phase II (preclinical) trial. With this method, we propose another step to respond to the American Psychiatric Association guidelines.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03975881; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03975881

Individualized Prediction of Prodromal Symptom Remission for Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

The clinical high-risk period before a first episode of psychosis (CHR-P) has been widely studied with the goal of understanding the development of psychosis; however, less attention has been paid to the 75%-80% of CHR-P individuals who do not transition to psychosis. It is an open question whether multivariable models could be developed to predict remission outcomes at the same level of performance and generalizability as those that predict conversion to psychosis. Participants were drawn from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS3). An empirically derived set of clinical and demographic predictor variables were selected with elastic net regularization and were included in a gradient boosting machine algorithm to predict prodromal symptom remission. The predictive model was tested in a comparably sized independent sample (NAPLS2). The classification algorithm developed in NAPLS3 achieved an area under the curve of 0.66 (0.60-0.72) with a sensitivity of 0.68 and specificity of 0.53 when tested in an independent external sample (NAPLS2). Overall, future remitters had lower baseline prodromal symptoms than nonremitters. This study is the first to use a data-driven machine-learning approach to assess clinical and demographic predictors of symptomatic remission in individuals who do not convert to psychosis. The predictive power of the models in this study suggest that remission represents a unique clinical phenomenon. Further study is warranted to best understand factors contributing to resilience and recovery from the CHR-P state.

Basic self-disturbance in subjects at clinical high risk for psychosis: Relationship with clinical and functional outcomes at one year follow-up

Basic self-disturbance (BSD) is assumed to drive symptom development in schizophrenia spectrum disorders and in clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis. We investigated the relationship between BSD at baseline, assessed with the Examination of Anomalous Self-Experience (EASE), and symptoms and functional outcome after one year in 32 patients, including 26 CHR and six with non-progressive attenuated psychotic symptoms. Correlations between baseline BSD levels and positive, negative and disorganization symptoms, and global functioning level at follow-up were significant. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that higher levels of baseline BSD predicted more severe positive symptoms and lower global functioning at follow-up, after adjusting for baseline positive symptoms and functioning. Subjects who were not in symptomatic and functional remission after one year had higher levels of BSD and negative symptoms, and lower functioning level, at baseline. Baseline BSD in participants with schizophrenia spectrum diagnoses at follow-up (9 of 12 were schizotypal personality disorder) were at the levels seen in schizotypal disorders in previous studies, but not significantly different from the other participants. Early identification and assessment of BSD may constitute a useful prognostic tool and a signal for therapeutic targets in CHR conditions. Further CHR studies investigating these relationships with larger samples are recommended.

AI in patient flow: applications of artificial intelligence to improve patient flow in NHS acute mental health inpatient units

Introduction

Growing demand for mental health services, coupled with funding and resource limitations, creates an opportunity for novel technological solutions including artificial intelligence (AI). This study aims to identify issues in patient flow on mental health units and align them with potential AI solutions, ultimately devising a model for their integration at service level.

Method

Following a narrative literature review and pilot interview, 20 semi-structured interviews were conducted with AI and mental health experts. Thematic analysis was then used to analyse and synthesise gathered data and construct an enhanced model.

Results

Predictive variables for length-of-stay and readmission rate are not consistent in the literature. There are, however, common themes in patient flow issues. An analysis identified several potential areas for AI-enhanced patient flow. Firstly, AI could improve patient flow by streamlining administrative tasks and optimising allocation of resources. Secondly, real-time data analytics systems could support clinician decision-making in triage, discharge, diagnosis and treatment stages. Finally, longer-term, development of solutions such as digital phenotyping could help transform mental health care to a more preventative, personalised model.

Conclusions

Recommendations were formulated for NHS trusts open to adopting AI patient flow enhancements. Although AI offers many promising use-cases, greater collaborative investment and infrastructure are needed to deliver clinically validated improvements. Concerns around data-use, regulation and transparency remain, and hospitals must continue to balance guidelines with stakeholder priorities. Further research is needed to connect existing case studies and develop a framework for their evaluation.

The relationship between cognitive deficits and impaired short-term functional outcome in clinical high-risk for psychosis participants: A machine learning and modelling approach

Poor functional outcomes are common in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P), but the contribution of cognitive deficits remains unclear. We examined the potential utility of cognitive variables in predictive models of functioning at baseline and follow-up with machine learning methods. Additional models fitted on baseline functioning variables were used as a benchmark to evaluate model performance. Data were available for 1) 146 CHR-P individuals of whom 118 completed a 6- and/or 12-month follow-up, 2) 47 participants not fulfilling CHR criteria (CHR-Ns) but displaying affective and substance use disorders and 3) 55 healthy controls (HCs). Predictors of baseline global assessment of functioning (GAF) scores were selected by L1-regularised least angle regression and then used to train classifiers to predict functional outcome in CHR-P individuals. In CHR-P participants, cognitive deficits together with clinical and functioning variables explained 41% of the variance in baseline GAF scores while cognitive variables alone explained 12%. These variables allowed classification of functional outcome with an average balanced accuracy (BAC) of 63% in both mixed- and cross-site models. However, higher accuracies (68%-70%) were achieved using classifiers fitted only on baseline functioning variables. Our findings suggest that cognitive deficits, alongside clinical and functioning variables, displayed robust relationships with impaired functioning in CHR-P participants at baseline and follow-up. Moreover, these variables allow for prediction of functional outcome. However, models based on baseline functioning variables showed a similar performance, highlighting the need to develop more accurate algorithms for predicting functional outcome in CHR-P participants.

Applications of artificial intelligence to improve patient flow on mental health inpatient units - Narrative literature review

BACKGROUND

Despite a growing body of research into both Artificial intelligence and mental health inpatient flow issues, few studies adequately combine the two. This review summarises findings in the fields of AI in psychiatry and patient flow from the past 5 years, finds links and identifies gaps for future research.

METHODS

The OVID database was used to access Embase and Medline. Top journals such as JAMA, Nature and The Lancet were screened for other relevant studies. Selection bias was limited by strict inclusion and exclusion criteria.

RESEARCH

3,675 papers were identified in March 2020, of which a limited number focused on AI for mental health unit patient flow. After initial screening, 323 were selected and 83 were subsequently analysed. The literature review revealed a wide range of applications with three main themes: diagnosis (33%), prognosis (39%) and treatment (28%). The main themes that emerged from AI in patient flow studies were: readmissions (41%), resource allocation (44%) and limitations (91%). The review extrapolates those solutions and suggests how they could potentially improve patient flow on mental health units, along with challenges and limitations they could face.

CONCLUSION

Research widely addresses potential uses of AI in mental health, with some focused on its applicability in psychiatric inpatients units, however research rarely discusses improvements in patient flow. Studies investigated various uses of AI to improve patient flow across specialities. This review highlights a gap in research and the unique research opportunity it presents.

Multimodal Machine Learning Workflows for Prediction of Psychosis in Patients With Clinical High-Risk Syndromes and Recent-Onset Depression

IMPORTANCE

Diverse models have been developed to predict psychosis in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states. Whether prediction can be improved by efficiently combining clinical and biological models and by broadening the risk spectrum to young patients with depressive syndromes remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether psychosis transition can be predicted in patients with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) using multimodal machine learning that optimally integrates clinical and neurocognitive data, structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI), and polygenic risk scores (PRS) for schizophrenia; to assess models' geographic generalizability; to test and integrate clinicians' predictions; and to maximize clinical utility by building a sequential prognostic system.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This multisite, longitudinal prognostic study performed in 7 academic early recognition services in 5 European countries followed up patients with CHR syndromes or ROD and healthy volunteers. The referred sample of 167 patients with CHR syndromes and 167 with ROD was recruited from February 1, 2014, to May 31, 2017, of whom 26 (23 with CHR syndromes and 3 with ROD) developed psychosis. Patients with 18-month follow-up (n = 246) were used for model training and leave-one-site-out cross-validation. The remaining 88 patients with nontransition served as the validation of model specificity. Three hundred thirty-four healthy volunteers provided a normative sample for prognostic signature evaluation. Three independent Swiss projects contributed a further 45 cases with psychosis transition and 600 with nontransition for the external validation of clinical-neurocognitive, sMRI-based, and combined models. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Accuracy and generalizability of prognostic systems.

RESULTS

A total of 668 individuals (334 patients and 334 controls) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 25.1 [5.8] years; 354 [53.0%] female and 314 [47.0%] male). Clinicians attained a balanced accuracy of 73.2% by effectively ruling out (specificity, 84.9%) but ineffectively ruling in (sensitivity, 61.5%) psychosis transition. In contrast, algorithms showed high sensitivity (76.0%-88.0%) but low specificity (53.5%-66.8%). A cybernetic risk calculator combining all algorithmic and human components predicted psychosis with a balanced accuracy of 85.5% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 86.4%). In comparison, an optimal prognostic workflow produced a balanced accuracy of 85.9% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 87.3%) at a much lower diagnostic burden by sequentially integrating clinical-neurocognitive, expert-based, PRS-based, and sMRI-based risk estimates as needed for the given patient. Findings were supported by good external validation results.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that psychosis transition can be predicted in a broader risk spectrum by sequentially integrating algorithms' and clinicians' risk estimates. For clinical translation, the proposed workflow should undergo large-scale international validation.

Lower speech connectedness linked to incidence of psychosis in people at clinical high risk

BACKGROUND

Formal thought disorder is a cardinal feature of psychotic disorders, and is also evident in subtle forms before psychosis onset in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P). Assessing speech output or assessing expressive language with speech as the medium at this stage may be particularly useful in predicting later transition to psychosis.

METHOD

Speech samples were acquired through administration of the Thought and Language Index (TLI) in 24 CHR-P participants, 16 people with first-episode psychosis (FEP) and 13 healthy controls. The CHR-P individuals were then followed clinically for a mean of 7 years (s.d. = 1.5) to determine if they transitioned to psychosis. Non-semantic speech graph analysis was used to assess the connectedness of transcribed speech in all groups.

RESULTS

Speech was significantly more disconnected in the FEP group than in both healthy controls (p < .01) and the CHR-P group (p < .05). Results remained significant when IQ was included as a covariate. Significant correlations were found between speech connectedness measures and scores on the TLI, a manual assessment of formal thought disorder. In the CHR-P group, lower scores on two measures of speech connectedness were associated with subsequent transition to psychosis (8 transitions, 16 non-transitions; p < .05).

CONCLUSION

These findings support the utility and validity of speech graph analysis methods in characterizing speech connectedness in the early phases of psychosis. This approach has the potential to be developed into an automated, objective and time-efficient way of stratifying individuals at CHR-P according to level of psychosis risk.

Prediction and Prevention in the Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis Paradigm: A Review of the Current Status and Recommendations for Future Directions of Inquiry

Prediction and prevention of negative clinical and functional outcomes represent the two primary objectives of research conducted within the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) paradigm. Several multivariable "risk calculator" models have been developed to predict the likelihood of developing psychosis, although these models have not been translated to clinical use. Overall, less progress has been made in developing effective interventions. In this paper, we review the existing literature on both prediction and prevention in the CHR-P paradigm and, primarily, outline ways in which expanding and combining these paths of inquiry could lead to a greater improvement in individual outcomes for those most at risk.

Development of Proteomic Prediction Models for Transition to Psychotic Disorder in the Clinical High-Risk State and Psychotic Experiences in Adolescence

IMPORTANCE

Biomarkers that are predictive of outcomes in individuals at risk of psychosis would facilitate individualized prognosis and stratification strategies.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether proteomic biomarkers may aid prediction of transition to psychotic disorder in the clinical high-risk (CHR) state and adolescent psychotic experiences (PEs) in the general population.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This diagnostic study comprised 2 case-control studies nested within the European Network of National Schizophrenia Networks Studying Gene-Environment Interactions (EU-GEI) and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). EU-GEI is an international multisite prospective study of participants at CHR referred from local mental health services. ALSPAC is a United Kingdom-based general population birth cohort. Included were EU-GEI participants who met CHR criteria at baseline and ALSPAC participants who did not report PEs at age 12 years. Data were analyzed from September 2018 to April 2020.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

In EU-GEI, transition status was assessed by the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States or contact with clinical services. In ALSPAC, PEs at age 18 years were assessed using the Psychosis-Like Symptoms Interview. Proteomic data were obtained from mass spectrometry of baseline plasma samples in EU-GEI and plasma samples at age 12 years in ALSPAC. Support vector machine learning algorithms were used to develop predictive models.

RESULTS

The EU-GEI subsample (133 participants at CHR (mean [SD] age, 22.6 [4.5] years; 68 [51.1%] male) comprised 49 (36.8%) who developed psychosis and 84 (63.2%) who did not. A model based on baseline clinical and proteomic data demonstrated excellent performance for prediction of transition outcome (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.95; positive predictive value [PPV], 75.0%; and negative predictive value [NPV], 98.6%). Functional analysis of differentially expressed proteins implicated the complement and coagulation cascade. A model based on the 10 most predictive proteins accurately predicted transition status in training (AUC, 0.99; PPV, 76.9%; and NPV, 100%) and test (AUC, 0.92; PPV, 81.8%; and NPV, 96.8%) data. The ALSPAC subsample (121 participants from the general population with plasma samples available at age 12 years (61 [50.4%] male) comprised 55 participants (45.5%) with PEs at age 18 years and 61 (50.4%) without PEs at age 18 years. A model using proteomic data at age 12 years predicted PEs at age 18 years, with an AUC of 0.74 (PPV, 67.8%; and NPV, 75.8%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In individuals at risk of psychosis, proteomic biomarkers may contribute to individualized prognosis and stratification strategies. These findings implicate early dysregulation of the complement and coagulation cascade in the development of psychosis outcomes.

Self-evaluation of negative symptoms in adolescent and young adult first psychiatric episodes

BACKGROUND

Negative Symptoms (blunted affect, alogia, anhedonia, avolition, and asociality) are usually described in schizophrenia but they are also present in other psychiatric disorders. The diagnosis and prognosis relevance of negative symptoms (NS) self-assessment during a first psychiatric episode is still unknown.

AIMS

To determine (i) the rate of self-assessed NS in a first psychiatric episode among adolescents and young adults compared to control subjects; and (ii), whether there is a difference in the prevalence of NS between schizophrenia and major depressive disorder first episodes.

METHODS

The population included patients aged 15-25 years, with no psychiatric history and no history of medication. A dimensional evaluation was assessed during hospitalization, including depressive (Hamilton Depression Scale), psychotic symptoms (Prodromal Questionnaire, 16 items) and the self-evaluation of negative symptoms (SNS scale). Prospective categorical diagnoses were updated 6 months after hospitalization. The population included 117 individuals (58 patients and 59 healthy controls).

RESULTS

Among healthy individuals, 47.5% reported at least one NS, the most reported being amotivation. After binary logistic regression, Negative Symptoms (SNS score) were associated with a diagnostic of psychiatric disorder at the 6-months follow-up (OR = 1.163, p = .001), whereas depressive symptoms and psychotic experiences were not. A SNS threshold allowed to screen first episode patients and SZ patients in the general population (assessed with ROC curve). A high prevalence of self-reported NS was observed across diagnostic boundaries in first psychiatric episodes, with a mean SNS score of 19.3 ± 7.1 for schizophrenic disorders and 20.7 ± 8.6 for depressive disorders. The prevalence of NS was not significantly different between depressive disorders and schizophrenic disorders (p > .05).

CONCLUSION

NS are an important transnosographic dimension during first psychiatric episodes among adolescents and young adults. Negative symptoms self-assessment with the SNS scale is relevant during a first psychiatric episode.

Predicting the individual risk of psychosis conversion in at-risk mental state (ARMS): a multivariate model reveals the influence of nonpsychotic prodromal symptoms

To improve the prediction of the individual risk of conversion to psychosis in UHR subjects, by considering all CAARMS' symptoms at first presentation and using a multivariate machine learning method known as logistic regression with Elastic-net shrinkage. 46 young individuals who sought help from the specialized outpatient unit at Sainte-Anne hospital and who met CAARMS criteria for UHR were assessed, among whom 27 were reassessed at follow-up (22.4 ± 6.54 months) and included in the analysis. Elastic net logistic regression was trained, using CAARMS items at baseline to predict individual evolution between converters (UHR-P) and non-converters (UHR-NP). Elastic-net was used to select the few CAARMS items that best predict the clinical evolution. All validations and significances of predictive models were computed with non-parametric re-sampling strategies that provide robust estimators even when the distributional assumption cannot be guaranteed. Among the 25 CAARMS items, the Elastic net selected 'obsessive-compulsive symptoms' and 'aggression/dangerous behavior' as risk factors for conversion while 'anhedonia' and 'mood swings/lability' were associated with non-conversion at follow-up. In the ten-fold stratified cross-validation, the classification achieved 81.8% of sensitivity (P = 0.035) and 93.7% of specificity (P = 0.0016). Non-psychotic prodromal symptoms bring valuable information to improve the prediction of conversion to psychosis. Elastic net logistic regression applied to clinical data is a promising way to switch from group prediction to an individualized prediction.

Structural and functional imaging markers for susceptibility to psychosis

The introduction of clinical criteria for the operationalization of psychosis high risk provided a basis for early detection and treatment of vulnerable individuals. However, about two-thirds of people meeting clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria will never develop a psychotic disorder. In the effort to increase prognostic precision, structural and functional neuroimaging have received growing attention as a potentially useful resource in the prediction of psychotic transition in CHR patients. The present review summarizes current research on neuroimaging biomarkers in the CHR state, with a particular focus on their prognostic utility and limitations. Large, multimodal/multicenter studies are warranted to address issues important for clinical applicability such as generalizability and replicability, standardization of clinical definitions and neuroimaging methods, and consideration of contextual factors (e.g., age, comorbidity).

Individualized Diagnostic and Prognostic Models for Patients With Psychosis Risk Syndromes: A Meta-analytic View on the State of the Art

BACKGROUND

The clinical high risk (CHR) paradigm has facilitated research into the underpinnings of help-seeking individuals at risk for developing psychosis, aiming at predicting and possibly preventing transition to the overt disorder. Statistical methods such as machine learning and Cox regression have provided the methodological basis for this research by enabling the construction of diagnostic models (i.e., distinguishing CHR individuals from healthy individuals) and prognostic models (i.e., predicting a future outcome) based on different data modalities, including clinical, neurocognitive, and neurobiological data. However, their translation to clinical practice is still hindered by the high heterogeneity of both CHR populations and methodologies applied.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed the literature on diagnostic and prognostic models built on Cox regression and machine learning. Furthermore, we conducted a meta-analysis on prediction performances investigating heterogeneity of methodological approaches and data modality.

RESULTS

A total of 44 articles were included, covering 3707 individuals for prognostic studies and 1052 individuals for diagnostic studies (572 CHR patients and 480 healthy control subjects). CHR patients could be classified against healthy control subjects with 78% sensitivity and 77% specificity. Across prognostic models, sensitivity reached 67% and specificity reached 78%. Machine learning models outperformed those applying Cox regression by 10% sensitivity. There was a publication bias for prognostic studies yet no other moderator effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results may be driven by substantial clinical and methodological heterogeneity currently affecting several aspects of the CHR field and limiting the clinical implementability of the proposed models. We discuss conceptual and methodological harmonization strategies to facilitate more reliable and generalizable models for future clinical practice.

Dynamic ElecTronic hEalth reCord deTection (DETECT) of individuals at risk of a first episode of psychosis: a case-control development and validation study

BACKGROUND

Many individuals who will experience a first episode of psychosis (FEP) are not detected before occurrence, limiting the effect of preventive interventions. The combination of machine-learning methods and electronic health records (EHRs) could help address this gap.

METHODS

This case-control development and validation study is based on EHR data from IBM Explorys. The IBM Explorys Platform holds standardised, longitudinal, de-identified, patient-level EHR data pooled from different health-care systems with distinct EHRs. The present EHR-based studies were retrospective, matched (1:1), case-control studies compliant with RECORD, STROBE, and TRIPOD statements. The study included individuals in the IBM Explorys database who at some point between 1990 and 2018 had a diagnosis of FEP followed by schizophrenia, and psychosis-free matched control individuals from a random subsample of the full cohort. For every individual in the FEP cohort, the individual in the control cohort was matched to have a similar date for inclusion in the database and a similar total observation time. Individuals in the FEP cohort had their index date defined as the first diagnosis of psychosis or the first prescription of antipsychotic medication. Individuals in the control cohort had their index date defined to occur the same number of days after inclusion in the database as their matching FEP individual. The FEP and control cohorts were both randomly split into development and validation datasets in a ratio of 7:3. The subset of individuals in the validation dataset who had all their health-care encounters at providers that were not seen in the development dataset made up the external validation subset. A novel recurrent neural network model was developed to predict the risk of FEP 1 year before the index date by employing demographics and medical events (in the categories diagnoses, prescriptions, procedures, encounters and admissions, observations, and laboratory test results) dynamically collected in the EHR as part of clinical routine. We named the recurrent neural network Dynamic ElecTronic hEalth reCord deTection (DETECT). The main outcomes were accuracy and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Decision-curve analyses and dynamic patient journey plots were used to evaluate clinical usefulness.

FINDINGS

The FEP and control cohorts each comprised 72 860 individuals. 102 030 individuals (51 015 matching pairs) were randomly allocated to the development dataset and the remaining 43 690 to the validation dataset. In the validation dataset, 4770 individuals had all their encounters outside of the 118 790 health-care providers that were encountered in the development dataset. The data from these individuals made up the external validation subset. The median follow-up (observation time before index date) was 6·0 years (IQR 3·0-10·4). In the development dataset, DETECT's prognostic accuracy was 0·787 and AUROC was 0·868. In the validation dataset, DETECT's prognostic accuracy was 0·774 and AUROC was 0·856. In the external test subset, DETECT's balanced prognostic accuracy was 0·724 and AUROC was 0·799. Prevalence-adjusted decision-curve analyses suggested that DETECT was associated with a positive net benefit in two different scenarios for FEP detection.

INTERPRETATION

DETECT showed adequate prognostic accuracy to detect individuals at risk of developing a FEP in primary and secondary care. Replication and refinement in a population-based setting are needed to consolidate these findings.

FUNDING

Lundbeck.

Towards Precision Medicine in Psychosis: Benefits and Challenges of Multimodal Multicenter Studies-PSYSCAN: Translating Neuroimaging Findings From Research into Clinical Practice

In the last 2 decades, several neuroimaging studies investigated brain abnormalities associated with the early stages of psychosis in the hope that these could aid the prediction of onset and clinical outcome. Despite advancements in the field, neuroimaging has yet to deliver. This is in part explained by the use of univariate analytical techniques, small samples and lack of statistical power, lack of external validation of potential biomarkers, and lack of integration of nonimaging measures (eg, genetic, clinical, cognitive data). PSYSCAN is an international, longitudinal, multicenter study on the early stages of psychosis which uses machine learning techniques to analyze imaging, clinical, cognitive, and biological data with the aim of facilitating the prediction of psychosis onset and outcome. In this article, we provide an overview of the PSYSCAN protocol and we discuss benefits and methodological challenges of large multicenter studies that employ neuroimaging measures.

Efficient Prediction of Vitamin B Deficiencies via Machine-Learning Using Routine Blood Test Results in Patients With Intense Psychiatric Episode

BACKGROUND

Vitamin B deficiency is common worldwide and may lead to psychiatric symptoms; however, vitamin B deficiency epidemiology in patients with intense psychiatric episode has rarely been examined. Moreover, vitamin deficiency testing is costly and time-consuming, which has hampered effectively ruling out vitamin deficiency-induced intense psychiatric symptoms. In this study, we aimed to clarify the epidemiology of these deficiencies and efficiently predict them using machine-learning models from patient characteristics and routine blood test results that can be obtained within one hour.

METHODS

We reviewed 497 consecutive patients, who are deemed to be at imminent risk of seriously harming themselves or others, over a period of 2 years in a single psychiatric tertiary-care center. Machine-learning models (k-nearest neighbors, logistic regression, support vector machine, and random forest) were trained to predict each deficiency from age, sex, and 29 routine blood test results gathered in the period from September 2015 to December 2016. The models were validated using a dataset collected from January 2017 through August 2017.

RESULTS

We found that 112 (22.5%), 80 (16.1%), and 72 (14.5%) patients had vitamin B1, vitamin B12, and folate (vitamin B9) deficiency, respectively. Further, the machine-learning models were well generalized to predict deficiency in the future unseen data, especially using random forest; areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the validation dataset (i.e., the dataset not used for training the models) were 0.716, 0.599, and 0.796, respectively. The Gini importance of these vitamins provided further evidence of a relationship between these vitamins and the complete blood count, while also indicating a hitherto rarely considered, potential association between these vitamins and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) or thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH).

DISCUSSION

This study demonstrates that machine-learning can efficiently predict some vitamin deficiencies in patients with active psychiatric symptoms, based on the largest cohort to date with intense psychiatric episode. The prediction method may expedite risk stratification and clinical decision-making regarding whether replacement therapy should be prescribed. Further research includes validating its external generalizability in other clinical situations and clarify whether interventions based on this method could improve patient care and cost-effectiveness.

Dynamic prediction systems of transition to psychosis using joint modelling: extensions to the base system

Seeking risk factors and constructing prediction models for transition to psychosis in individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) has been an important research area. Our previous work showed that dynamic prediction could perform better than the conventional approach of using only baseline predictors in predicting transition to a psychotic disorder in UHR individuals. Dynamic prediction is the prediction of the occurrence of an event outcome using longitudinal data and has been made possible using a statistical methodology called joint modelling. The application of joint modelling and dynamic prediction in our previous work was relatively simple. In this paper, we examined extensions to our previous work in three ways: how to use the estimated changes in transition probability at repeated assessments over time to perform prediction, how to model the trajectory of the longitudinal data and how to model the relationship between the longitudinal data and the risk of transition to psychosis. Data from the Pace400 study (n = 398 UHR individuals), a follow-up study with transition to psychosis as the primary outcome, were used to investigate these extensions. Our results indicated that these extensions can enhance improvement in terms of model fit and sensitivity and specificity values. We have shown that dynamic prediction through joint modelling not only can utilize the richness of longitudinal data but also offers versatility in how prediction can be conducted. Our results have again confirmed that dynamic prediction via joint modelling should be considered as a useful tool for predicting transition to psychosis.

Negative Symptoms and Functioning in Youth at Risk of Psychosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

LEARNING OBJECTIVE

After participating in this activity, learners should be better able to:• Evaluate the relationship between negative symptoms and functioning in youth at clinical high risk for psychosis.

AIM

Youth at CHR for psychosis often demonstrate significant negative symptoms and poor functioning, though the magnitude and direction of the relationship between the two remains unknown. The objective of this systematic review is to summarize the relationship between negative symptoms and functioning in CHR samples.

METHOD

Electronic databases CINAHL, EBM, Embase, MEDLINE, and PsycINFO were searched from inception. Studies were selected if they included any study that reported a relationship between negative symptoms and functioning in youth at clinical high risk (CHR). The correlation coefficient r was converted to Cohen's d, and all random-effects meta-analyses were performed using the transformed values.

RESULTS

Forty-one studies met the inclusion criteria, including a total of 4574 individuals at CHR for psychosis. Negative symptom total scores were significantly associated with poorer global functioning (d, -1.40; 95% CI, -1.82 to -0.98; I = 79.4%; p < .001 [9 studies, n = 782]), social functioning (d, -1.10; 95% CI, -1.27 to -0.93; I = 10.40%; p < .001 [12 studies, n = 811]), and role functioning (d, -0.96; 95% CI, -1.17 to -0.76; I = 41.1%; p < .001 [9 studies, n = 881]). In addition, negative symptoms were consistently associated with poor premorbid functioning. When examining negative symptom domains, avolition, anhedonia, and blunted affect were each significantly and independently associated with poorer social functioning and role functioning. In terms of prediction models, negative symptoms contributed to the prediction of lower functioning across multiple studies.

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis demonstrates a strong relationship between negative symptoms and functioning in youth at clinical high risk for psychosis.

Selective Review of Neuroimaging Findings in Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: On the Path to Biomarkers for Conversion

First episode psychosis (FEP), and subsequent diagnosis of schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder, predominantly occurs during late adolescence, is accompanied by a significant decline in function and represents a traumatic experience for patients and families alike. Prior to first episode psychosis, most patients experience a prodromal period of 1-2 years, during which symptoms first appear and then progress. During that time period, subjects are referred to as being at Clinical High Risk (CHR), as a prodromal period can only be designated in hindsight in those who convert. The clinical high-risk period represents a critical window during which interventions may be targeted to slow or prevent conversion to psychosis. However, only one third of subjects at clinical high risk will convert to psychosis and receive a formal diagnosis of a primary psychotic disorder. Therefore, in order for targeted interventions to be developed and applied, predicting who among this population will convert is of critical importance. To date, a variety of neuroimaging modalities have identified numerous differences between CHR subjects and healthy controls. However, complicating attempts at predicting conversion are increasingly recognized co-morbidities, such as major depressive disorder, in a significant number of CHR subjects. The result of this is that phenotypes discovered between CHR subjects and healthy controls are likely non-specific to psychosis and generalized for major mental illness. In this paper, we selectively review evidence for neuroimaging phenotypes in CHR subjects who later converted to psychosis. We then evaluate the recent landscape of machine learning as it relates to neuroimaging phenotypes in predicting conversion to psychosis.

Discovery and Validation of Prediction Algorithms for Psychosis in Youths at Clinical High Risk

In the past 2 to 3 decades, clinicians have used the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) paradigm to better understand factors that contribute to the onset of psychotic disorders. While this paradigm is useful to identify individuals at risk, the CHR-P criteria are not sufficient to predict outcomes from the CHR-P population. Because approximately 25% of the CHR-P population will ultimately convert to psychosis, more precise methods of prediction are needed to account for heterogeneity in both risk factors and outcomes in the CHR-P population. To this end, several groups in recent years have used data-driven approaches to refine predictive algorithms to predict both conversion to psychosis and functional outcomes. These models have generally used either clinical and behavioral data, including demographics and measures of symptom severity, neurocognitive functioning, and social functioning, or neuroimaging data, including structural and functional measures, to predict conversion to psychosis in CHR-P samples. This review focuses on the empirical models that have been derived within each of these lines of research and evaluates the performance and methodology of these models. This review also serves to inform best practices for data-driven approaches and directions moving forward to improve our prediction of psychotic disorders and associated outcomes. Because sample size is still the most critical consideration in the current models, we urge that algorithms to predict conversion be conducted using multisite data in order to obtain the power necessary to conclusively determine predictive accuracy without overfitting.

Clinical-learning versus machine-learning for transdiagnostic prediction of psychosis onset in individuals at-risk

Predicting the onset of psychosis in individuals at-risk is based on robust prognostic model building methods including a priori clinical knowledge (also termed clinical-learning) to preselect predictors or machine-learning methods to select predictors automatically. To date, there is no empirical research comparing the prognostic accuracy of these two methods for the prediction of psychosis onset. In a first experiment, no improved performance was observed when machine-learning methods (LASSO and RIDGE) were applied-using the same predictors-to an individualised, transdiagnostic, clinically based, risk calculator previously developed on the basis of clinical-learning (predictors: age, gender, age by gender, ethnicity, ICD-10 diagnostic spectrum), and externally validated twice. In a second experiment, two refined versions of the published model which expanded the granularity of the ICD-10 diagnosis were introduced: ICD-10 diagnostic categories and ICD-10 diagnostic subdivisions. Although these refined versions showed an increase in apparent performance, their external performance was similar to the original model. In a third experiment, the three refined models were analysed under machine-learning and clinical-learning with a variable event per variable ratio (EPV). The best performing model under low EPVs was obtained through machine-learning approaches. The development of prognostic models on the basis of a priori clinical knowledge, large samples and adequate events per variable is a robust clinical prediction method to forecast psychosis onset in patients at-risk, and is comparable to machine-learning methods, which are more difficult to interpret and implement. Machine-learning methods should be preferred for high dimensional data when no a priori knowledge is available.

The risks of risk. Regulating the use of machine learning for psychosis prediction

Recent advances in Machine Learning (ML) have the potential to revolutionise psychosis prediction and psychiatric assessment. This article has two objectives. First, it clarifies which aspects of English Law are relevant in order to regulate the use of ML in clinical research on psychosis prediction. It is argued that its lawful implementation will depend upon the legal requirements regarding the balance between potential harms and benefits, particularly with reference to: (i) any additional risks introduced by the use of ML for data analysis and outcome prediction; and (ii) the inclusion of vulnerable research populations such as minors or incapacitated adults. Second, this article investigates how clinical prediction via ML might affect the practice of risk assessment under mental health legislation, with reference to English Law. It is argued that there is a potential for virtuous applications of clinical prediction in psychiatry. However, reaffirming the distinction between psychosis risk and risk of harm is paramount. Establishing psychosis risk and assessing a person's risk of harm are discrete practices, and so should remain when using artificial intelligence for psychiatric assessment. Evaluating whether clinical prediction via ML might benefit individuals with psychosis will depend on which risk we try to assess and on what we try to predict, whether this is psychosis transition, a psychotic relapse, self-harm and suicidality, or harm to others.

Relative importance of symptoms, cognition, and other multilevel variables for psychiatric disease classifications by machine learning

This study used machine-learning algorithms to make unbiased estimates of the relative importance of various multilevel data for classifying cases with schizophrenia (n = 60), schizoaffective disorder (n = 19), bipolar disorder (n = 20), unipolar depression (n = 14), and healthy controls (n = 51) into psychiatric diagnostic categories. The Random Forest machine learning algorithm, which showed best efficacy (92.9% SD: 0.06), was used to generate variable importance ranking of positive, negative, and general psychopathology symptoms, cognitive indexes, global assessment of function (GAF), and parental ages at birth for sorting participants into diagnostic categories. Symptoms were ranked most influential for separating cases from healthy controls, followed by cognition and maternal age. To separate schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorder from bipolar/unipolar depression, GAF was most influential, followed by cognition and paternal age. For classifying schizophrenia from all other psychiatric disorders, low GAF and paternal age were similarly important, followed by cognition, psychopathology and maternal age. Controls misclassified as schizophrenia cases showed lower nonverbal abilities, mild negative and general psychopathology symptoms, and younger maternal or older paternal age. The importance of symptoms for classification of cases and lower GAF for diagnosing schizophrenia, notably more important and distinct from cognition and symptoms, concurs with current practices. The high importance of parental ages is noteworthy and merits further study.

Machine learning in mental health: a scoping review of methods and applications

BACKGROUND

This paper aims to synthesise the literature on machine learning (ML) and big data applications for mental health, highlighting current research and applications in practice.

METHODS

We employed a scoping review methodology to rapidly map the field of ML in mental health. Eight health and information technology research databases were searched for papers covering this domain. Articles were assessed by two reviewers, and data were extracted on the article's mental health application, ML technique, data type, and study results. Articles were then synthesised via narrative review.

RESULTS

Three hundred papers focusing on the application of ML to mental health were identified. Four main application domains emerged in the literature, including: (i) detection and diagnosis; (ii) prognosis, treatment and support; (iii) public health, and; (iv) research and clinical administration. The most common mental health conditions addressed included depression, schizophrenia, and Alzheimer's disease. ML techniques used included support vector machines, decision trees, neural networks, latent Dirichlet allocation, and clustering.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the application of ML to mental health has demonstrated a range of benefits across the areas of diagnosis, treatment and support, research, and clinical administration. With the majority of studies identified focusing on the detection and diagnosis of mental health conditions, it is evident that there is significant room for the application of ML to other areas of psychology and mental health. The challenges of using ML techniques are discussed, as well as opportunities to improve and advance the field.

Predictors of Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Current research is examining predictors of the transition to psychosis in youth who are at clinical high risk based on attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS). Determining predictors of the development of psychosis is important for an improved understanding of mechanisms as well as the development of preventative strategies. The purpose is to review the most recent literature identifying predictors of the transition to psychosis in those who are already assessed as being at risk.

RECENT FINDINGS

Multidomain models, in particular, integrated models of symptoms, social functioning, and cognition variables, achieve better predictive performance than individual factors. There are many methodological issues; however, several solutions have now been described in the literature. For youth who already have APS, predicting who may go on to later develop psychosis is possible. Several studies are underway in large consortiums that may overcome some of the methodological concerns and develop improved means of prediction.

Early psychosis detection program in Chile: A first step for the South American challenge in psychosis research

AIM

Early detection and intervention (EDI) is a main challenge in psychosis research. The Chilean schizophrenia (SZ) national program has universal support and treatment by law for all SZ patients, but this does not yet extend to earlier stages of illness. Therefore, we have piloted an ultra-high risk (UHR) program to demonstrate the utility and feasibility of this public health approach in Chile.

METHODS

We introduce "The University of Chile High-risk Intervention Program," which is the first national EDI program for UHR youths. Longitudinal follow-up included clinical and cognitive assessments, and monitoring of physiological sensory and cognitive indices, through electroencephalographic techniques.

RESULTS

We recruited 27 UHR youths over 2 years. About 92.6% met criteria for attenuated psychosis syndrome (APS). Mean Scale of Psychosis-Risk Symptoms (SOPS) ratings in the cohort were 6.9 (SD 4.6) for positive, 9.1 (SD 8.3) for negative, 5.4 (SD 5.3) for disorganized and 6.3 (SD 4.1) for general symptoms. About 14.8% met criteria for comorbid anxiety disorders and 44.4% for mood disorders. Most participants received cognitive behavioural therapy (62.9%) and were prescribed low dose antipsychotics (85.2%). The transition rate to psychosis was 22% within 2 years.

CONCLUSIONS

We describe our experience in establishing the first EDI program for UHR subjects in Chile. Our cohort is similar in profile and risk to those identified in higher-income countries. We will extend our work to further optimize psychosocial and preventive interventions, to promote its inclusion in the Chilean SZ national program and to establish a South American collaboration network for SZ research.

Assessment and treatment of individuals at high risk for psychosis

Early detection and specialised early intervention for people at high risk for psychotic disorders have received growing attention in the past few decades, with the aim of delaying or preventing the outbreak of explicit psychotic symptoms and improving functional outcomes. This article summarises criteria for a diagnosis of high psychosis risk, the implications for such a diagnosis and recommendations for treatment.

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

After reading this article you will be able to: •

DECLARATION OF INTEREST

C.A. has received non-financial support from Sunovion and Lundbeck in the past 36 months.

Dynamic prediction of transition to psychosis using joint modelling

Considerable research has been conducted seeking risk factors and constructing prediction models for transition to psychosis in individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR). Nearly all such research has only employed baseline predictors, i.e. data collected at the baseline time point, even though longitudinal data on relevant measures such as psychopathology have often been collected at various time points. Dynamic prediction, which is the updating of prediction at a post-baseline assessment using baseline and longitudinal data accumulated up to that assessment, has not been utilized in the UHR context. This study explored the use of dynamic prediction and determined if it could enhance the prediction of frank psychosis onset in UHR individuals. An emerging statistical methodology called joint modelling was used to implement the dynamic prediction. Data from the NEURAPRO study (n = 304 UHR individuals), an intervention study with transition to psychosis study as the primary outcome, were used to investigate dynamic predictors. Compared with the conventional approach of using only baseline predictors, dynamic prediction using joint modelling showed significantly better sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios. As dynamic prediction can provide an up-to-date prediction for each individual at each new assessment post entry, it can be a useful tool to help clinicians adjust their prognostic judgements based on the unfolding clinical symptomatology of the patients. This study has shown that a dynamic approach to psychosis prediction using joint modelling has the potential to aid clinicians in making decisions about the provision of timely and personalized treatment to patients concerned.

Factor structure of the positive and negative syndrome scale (PANSS) in people at ultra high risk (UHR) for psychosis

INTRODUCTION

The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), a comprehensive psychopathology assessment scale used in the evaluation of psychopathology in schizophrenia, is also often used in the Ultra-High-Risk (UHR) population. This paper examined the dimensional structure of the PANSS in a UHR sample.

METHODS

A total of 168 individuals assessed to be at UHR for psychosis on the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS) were evaluated on the PANSS, Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenia (CDSS), Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI), Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia (BACS), and Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF). Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of the PANSS was performed to identify the factorial structure. Convergent validity was explored with the CAARMS, CDSS, BAI and BACS.

RESULTS

EFA of the PANSS yielded five symptom factors - Positive, Negative, Cognition/Disorganization, Anxiety/Depression, and Hostility. This 5-factor solution showed good convergent validity with the CAARMS composite score, CDSS, BAI, and BACS. Positive, Negative and Anxiety/Depression factors were associated with functioning.

CONCLUSION

The reported PANSS factor structure may serve to improve the understanding and measurement of clinical symptom dimensions manifested in people with UHR for future research and clinical setting.

Machine Learning Approaches for Clinical Psychology and Psychiatry

Machine learning approaches for clinical psychology and psychiatry explicitly focus on learning statistical functions from multidimensional data sets to make generalizable predictions about individuals. The goal of this review is to provide an accessible understanding of why this approach is important for future practice given its potential to augment decisions associated with the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of people suffering from mental illness using clinical and biological data. To this end, the limitations of current statistical paradigms in mental health research are critiqued, and an introduction is provided to critical machine learning methods used in clinical studies. A selective literature review is then presented aiming to reinforce the usefulness of machine learning methods and provide evidence of their potential. In the context of promising initial results, the current limitations of machine learning approaches are addressed, and considerations for future clinical translation are outlined.