Relationships between cold-temperature indices and all causes and cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality in a subtropical island

Short-term effects of temperature-related indices on emergency ambulance dispatches due to mental and behavioral disorders in Shenzhen, China

Introduction

The precise associations between temperature-related indices and mental and behavioral disorders (MBDs) have yet to be fully elucidated. Our study aims to ascertain the most effective temperature-related index and assess its immediate impact on emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) due to MBDs in Shenzhen, China.

Methods

EADs data and meteorological data from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2020, in Shenzhen were collected. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) were utilized to examine the non-linear and lagged effects of temperature-related indices on EADs due to MBDs. The Quasi Akaike Information criterion (QAIC) was used to determine the optimal index after standardizing temperature-related indices. After adjusting for confounding factors in the model, we estimated the immediate and cumulative effects of temperature on EADs due to MBDs.

Results

The analysis of short-term temperature effects on EADs due to MBDs revealed Humidex as the most suitable index. Referring to the optimal Humidex (3.2th percentile, 12.00°C), we observed a significant effect of Humidex over the threshold (34.6th percentile, 26.80°C) on EADs due to MBDs at lag 0-5. The cumulative relative risks for high temperature (90th percentile, 41.90°C) and extreme high temperature (99th percentile, 44.20°C) at lag 0-5 were 1.318 (95% CI: 1.159-1.499) and 1.338 (95% CI: 1.153-1.553), respectively. No significant cold effect was observed on EADs due to MBDs.

Conclusion

High Humidex was associated with more EADs due to MBDs in subtropical regions. Health authorities should implement effective measures to raise public awareness of risks related to high temperature and protect vulnerable populations.

Assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in China

Background

With the intensification of global climate warming, extreme low temperature events such as cold spells have become an increasingly significant threat to public health. Few studies have examined the relationship between cold spells and mortality in multiple Chinese provinces.

Methods

We employed health impact functions for temperature and mortality to quantify the health risks of the first winter cold spell in China on November 26th, 2022, and analyzed the reasons for the stronger development of the cold spell in terms of the circulation field.

Results

This cold spell was a result of the continuous reinforcement of the blocking high-pressure system in the Ural Mountains, leading to the deepening of the cold vortex in front of it. Temperature changes associated with the movement of cold fronts produced additional mortality risks and mortality burdens. In general, the average excess risk (ER) of death during the cold spell in China was 2.75%, with a total cumulative excess of 369,056 deaths. The health risks associated with temperatures were unevenly distributed spatially in China, with the ER values ranging from a minimum of 0.14% to a maximum of 5.72%, and temperature drops disproportionately affect southern regions of China more than northern regions. The cumulative excess deaths exibited the highest in eastern and central China, with 87,655 and 80,230 respectively, and the lowest in northwest China with 27,474 deaths. Among the provinces, excess deaths pronounced the highest in Shandong with 29,492 and the lowest in Tibet with only 196.

Conclusion

The study can provide some insight into the mortality burden of cold spells in China, while emphasising the importance of understanding the complex relationship between extreme low temperature events and human health. The outcomes could provide valuable revelations for informing pertinent public health policies.

A life course approach to asthma and wheezing among young children caused by ozone: A prospective birth cohort in northern China

BACKGROUND

Given differences in vulnerability of children in early life, a life course approach to asthma and wheezing (AW) in young children caused by ozone (O₃) is not fully understood.

METHODS

We conducted a birth cohort in Jinan, China from 2018 to 2021 to elucidate the onset model of childhood AW due to O₃ exposure. An inverse distance weighted model was used for individual exposure assessment. The time-dependent Cox proportional-hazard model and logistic model were used to investigate the effects of O₃ exposure on AW. Principal component analysis, interaction analysis, and distributed lag model were used to analyze the life course approach.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence rate for AW among 6501 children aged 2 was 1.4%. A high level of O₃ was related to AW (HR: 2.10, 95% CI: 1.31, 3.37). Only O₃ exposure after birth was associated with AW, with an OR of 1.82 (1.08, 3.12), after adjusting for the effect before birth. Furthermore, adjusting for other air pollutants, the HR for the individual effect of high O₃ exposure on AW was 2.44 (1.53, 3.89). Interestingly, P values for interactions for O₃ and the principal components of other pollutants, as well as the characteristic variable of open windows were less than 0.1. Moreover, an increase in the IQR of O₃ exposure at the 31st to 37th weeks before birth and the 1st to 105th weeks after birth was associated with an increase in the HRs for AW.

CONCLUSIONS

High-level of O₃ exposure after birth could lead to AW among young children. Importantly, the AW onset model may include the risk factors accumulation and the sensitive period model. Specifically, there are two sensitive windows in early life, and the correlated insults between the high level of O₃ and other pollutants as well as open windows in the asthma-inducing effect.

Have residents adapted to heat wave and cold spell in the 21st century? Evidence from 136 Chinese cities

Global climate change has increased the probability and intensity of extreme weather events. The adverse health effect of extreme temperature has gone through a temporal variation over years. Time-series data including city-level daily cardiovascular death records and meteorological data were collected from 136 Chinese cities during 2006 and 2019. A time-varying distributed lag model with interaction terms was applied to assess the temporal change of mortality risk and attributable mortality of heat wave and cold spell. The mortality effect of heat wave generally increased and that of cold spell decreased significantly in the total population during the study period. The heat wave effect increased especially among the female and people aged 65 to 74. As for the cold spell, the reduced susceptibility was detected both in the temperate and cold climatic zone. Our findings appeal for counterpart measures corresponding to sub-populations and regions responding to future extreme climate events from the public and individuals.

Analysis of the heat- and cold-related cardiovascular mortality in an urban mediterranean environment through various thermal indices

During the last decades the effects of thermal stress on public health have been a great concern worldwide. Thermal stress is determined by air temperature in combination with other meteorological parameters, such as relative humidity and wind speed. The present study is focused on the Mediterranean city of Thessaloniki, Greece and it aims to explore the association between thermal stress and mortality from cardiovascular diseases, using both air temperature and other thermal indices as indicators. For that, an over-dispersed Poisson regression function was used, in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, in order to capture the delayed and nonlinear effects of temperature. Our results revealed a reverse J-shaped exposure-response curve for the total population and females and a U-shaped association for males. In all cases examined, the minimum mortality temperature was identified around the 80th percentile of each distribution. It is noteworthy that despite the fact that the highest risks of cardiovascular mortality were estimated for exposure to extreme temperatures, moderate temperatures were found to cause the highest burden of mortality. On the whole, our estimations demonstrated that the population in Thessaloniki is more susceptible to cold effects and in regard with gender, females seem to be more vulnerable to ambient thermal conditions.

Heat and outpatient visits of skin diseases – A multisite analysis in China, 2014–2018

Background

Many studies have shown that various kinds of diseases were associated with the variation of ambient temperature. However, there’s only a scrap of evidence paying attention to the link between temperature and skin diseases, and no relevant national research was performed in China.

Objective

This study aimed to quantify the effect of heat on skin diseases and identify the vulnerable populations and areas in China.

Methods

Daily meteorological data, air pollutant data and outpatient data were collected from in 18 sites of China during 2014–2018. A time-series study with distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate meta-analysis was applied to analyze the site-specific and pooled associations between daily mean temperature and daily outpatient visits of skin diseases by using the data of warm season (from June to September). Stratified analysis by age, sex and climate zones and subtypes of skin diseases were also conducted.

Results

We found a positive linear relationship between the ambient temperature and risk of skin diseases, with a 1.25% (95%CI: 0.34%, 2.16%) increase of risk of outpatient visits for each 1 °C increase in daily mean temperature during the warm season. In general, groups aged 18–44 years, males and people living in temperate climate regions were more susceptible to high temperature. Immune dysfunction including dermatitis and eczema were heat-sensitive skin diseases.

Conclusions

Our findings suggested that people should take notice of heat-related skin diseases and also provided some references about related health burden for strategy-makers. Targeted measures for vulnerable populations need to be taken to reduce disease burden, including monitoring and early warning systems, and sun-protection measures.

Temporal evolution of threshold temperatures for extremely cold days in Spain

In contrast to research on heat waves, there are no studies in recent years that analyze the temporal evolution of threshold temperatures (Tthreshold) for extremely cold days (ECD). It is unknown whether threshold temperatures have increased more quickly than the minimum daily temperature (Tmin) in recent years. The objective of this study was to analyze the temporal evolution of the minimum daily temperature (Tmin) in a group of Spanish provinces and compare it with the evolution of threshold temperatures. An ecological, retrospective time series study was carried out using daily observations between January 1, 1983 and December 31, 2018 (36 years) in 10 provinces that are representative of the different climate territories in Spain. For each representative observatory in each province, the values of Tmin were obtained for the winter months (November-March). The value of Tthreshold was determined for each province and each year, using dispersion diagrams for the pre-whitened series, with daily mortality due to natural causes displayed on the Y axis (CIEX: A00-R99) and Tmin grouped by 10 degree intervals on the X axis. To determine the temporal evolution of Tmin and Tthreshold for each province, linear models were fitted, with time as the independent variable. During the winter months, Tmin increased at an average rate of 0.2 °C/decade (IC95: 0.1-0.3), while Tthreshold remained practically constant during the period, at 0.1 °C/decade (IC95% -0.1 0.3). These values are much lower than those obtained in the case of heat, both in terms of the evolution of maximum daily temperature and that of Tthreshold. In conclusion, the fact that this trend has been maintained across time in a scenario of climate change, with a slow increase in minimum daily temperatures and constant values of Threshold, suggests a decrease in the number of ECD.

Evaluating the predictive ability of temperature-related indices on the stroke morbidity in Shenzhen, China: Under cross-validation methods framework

BACKGROUND

Composite temperature-related indices have been utilized to comprehensively reflect the impact of multiple meteorological factors on health. We aimed to evaluate the predictive ability of temperature-related indices, choose the best predictor of stroke morbidity, and explore the association between them.

METHODS

We built distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the associations between temperature-related indices and stroke morbidity and then applied two types of cross-validation (CV) methods to choose the best predictor. The effects of this index on overall stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and ischemic stroke (IS) morbidity were explored and we explained how this index worked using heatmaps. Stratified analyses were conducted to identify vulnerable populations.

RESULTS

Among 12 temperature-related indices, the alternative temperature-humidity index (THIa) had the best overall performance in terms of root mean square error when combining the results from two CVs. With the median value of THIa (25.70 °C) as the reference, the relative risks (RRs) of low THIa (10th percentile) reached a maximum at lag 0-10, with RRs of 1.20 (95%CI:1.10-1.31), 1.49 (95%CI:1.29-1.73) and 1.12 (95%CI:1.03-1.23) for total stroke, ICH and IS, respectively. According to the THIa formula, we matched the effects of THIa on stroke under various combinations of temperature and relative humidity. We found that, although the low temperature (<20 °C) had the greatest adverse effect, the modification effect of humidity on it was not evident. In contrast, lower humidity could reverse the protective effect of temperature into a harmful effect at the moderate-high temperature (24 °C-27 °C). Stratification analyses showed that the female was more vulnerable to low THIa in IS.

CONCLUSIONS

THIa is the best temperature-related predictor of stroke morbidity. In addition to the most dangerous cold weather, the government should pay more attention to days with moderate-high temperature and low humidity, which have been overlooked in the past.

The effect and its critical window for ambient temperature and humidity in pregnancy on term low birth weight

As common meteorological factors in daily life, there is limited evidence for the effect of ambient temperature and humidity during pregnancy on the risk of term low birth weight. Furthermore, little is known about the interaction of ambient temperature and humidity on TLBW. The objective of the study was to explore the effect of ambient temperature, humidity during pregnancy, and their interaction on the risk of TLBW and, moreover, to identify exposure critical window. We recruited 6640 infants and their mothers to build a birth cohort study in Jinan City, China, from January 2018 to December 2019. The associations between temperature and humidity during pregnancy and TLBW were estimated by generalized additive model, logistic regression model, and interaction analysis, and the critical window was identified by the distributed lag non-linear model. The incidence of TLBW was 1.36% for the infants in the birth cohort. TLBW was related to the low level of temperature and humidity in the whole pregnancy, compared with the moderate level and the adjusted ORs were 4.44 (1.65-11.42) and 6.23 (1.92-21.39), respectively. The indicators of the interaction analysis of temperature and humidity were not statistically significant. For the low level of humidity, the association with TLBW was statistically significant at first to sixth gestational weeks, and the maximum OR in male infants (3.95, 1.70-9.16) was higher than that in females (1.96, 1.06-3.63). For the low level of temperature, we failed to find significant association with TLBW at each gestational week. The low level of temperature and humidity during pregnancy could increase the risk of TLBW. There was no statistical interaction between temperature and humidity on TLBW. Moreover, the early stage of pregnancy was the critical window for humidity exposure, in which the boys had a greater effect.

Non-optimum ambient temperature may decrease pulmonary function: A longitudinal study with intensively repeated measurements among asthmatic adult patients in 25 Chinese cities

BACKGROUND

Non-optimum ambient temperature has not been widely perceived as an important environmental risk factor for asthma, and the association between ambient temperature and pulmonary function is rarely explored. Our study aimed to investigate the associations between non-optimum ambient temperature and pulmonary function among asthmatic adult patients.

METHODS

We performed a longitudinal study among 4,992 eligible adult asthmatic patients in 25 cities of China from 2017 to 2020. The patients were required to complete pulmonary function test every day in the morning and evening. Linear mixed-effects models and distributed lag non-linear models were used to evaluate the associations between ambient temperature and pulmonary function.

RESULTS

We evaluated 298,396 records of pulmonary function tests. We found inversely J-shaped exposure-response relationship curves for ambient temperature and pulmonary function. The effects of extreme low temperature occurred at lag 0 h and vanished at lag 72 h (almost 3 days). Compared with referent temperature (29.5 °C), extreme low temperature (-9.4 °C) was associated with decreases of 60.4 mL in FEV₁, 299.7 mL/s in PEF, and 101.5 mL in FVC. Extreme high temperature (34.2 °C) was associated with decreases of 26.0 mL in FEV₁, 35.8 mL/s in PEF, and 23.4 mL in FVC. Patients of male, overweight, and elder ages were vulnerable populations, and cold effects were more prominent in the south and in areas without central heating.

CONCLUSIONS

Both extreme low and high ambient temperatures were associated with decreased pulmonary function in adult asthmatic patients. The effect could last for almost 3 days and low temperature was more harmful.

Low ambient temperature as a novel risk factor of oral diseases: A time-series study

BACKGROUND

The seasonal variation of oral diseases has been observed in life, but the influences of oral diseases associated with non-optimal ambient temperature were unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether non-optimum ambient temperature is associated with increased risks of oral diseases.

METHODS

We conducted a time series study based on outpatient data from the Shanghai Health Information Center, containing all public hospitals in Shanghai from 2016 to 2019. Generalized additive models with distributed lagged nonlinear models were applied to fit the data.

RESULT

A total of 3,882,636 outpatient cases of oral diseases were collected. Low temperature (<7 °C) posed increased risks for oral diseases. Daily temperature above 7 °C had no effect on oral diseases. The excess risks were present on the lag 1 day and lasted till lag 7 day. Relative to referent temperatures, the cumulative risks of total oral diseases, pulpitis, periodontitis, gum pain, stomatitis, and glossitis at extreme low temperature (-3 °C, 1st percentile) over lag 0-7 day were 1.92 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.40, 2.63), 2.40 (95% CI: 1.78, 3.25), 1.62 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.29), 1.75 (95% CI: 1.08, 2.83), 1.81 (95% CI: 1.30, 2.53), and 2.22 (95% CI: 1.23, 3.99). These associations were larger in patients who were above age 60.

CONCLUSION

This study provided novel epidemiological evidence that low ambient temperature may increase the risks of oral diseases. The temperature thresholds for eight oral diseases range from 3 to 7 °C. The excess risks could last for 7 days and were larger in older patients.

Assessing the effects of meteorological factors on daily children's respiratory disease hospitalizations: A retrospective study

Respiratory disease symptoms in children are aggravated by frequent changes in meteorological conditions. The net effective temperature (NET) integrates temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed as a cooling indicator. This study aims to assess the effect of daily changes in meteorological factors and corresponding NET data on children's hospitalizations for different ages, genders and subtypes of respiratory infections in Baotou, China. Distributed lag non-linear models were constructed to simultaneously assess the exposure–response associations between daily admission counts of children with respiratory diseases and daily NET and other meteorological factors, as well as their lag dependencies. As air pollution significantly affects the respiratory tract, it was considered as confounding factor. In general, the cumulative meteorological factors had greater effects on lower respiratory tract infections than upper respiratory tract infections (RR: temperature [5.21 vs. 2.33], wind speed [4.89 vs. 3.12], and humidity [1.77 vs. 0.97]). The effects of cumulative meteorological factors on female children were greater than those on male children (RR: temperature [2.14 vs. 1.82], wind speed [5.46 vs. 1.90], and humidity [1.60 vs. 1.55]). Temperature and wind speed showed an influence on 4–7-year-old children, but these factors had no influence on other age groups; humidity only showed an influence on the 0–3-year-old group. The NET value had a large effect on lower respiratory infections, in the 4–7-year-old group and female children. In conclusion, a complex non-linear relationship exists between climate variability and children's respiratory diseases. The results of the study can be used to support the development of important meteorological information tools for early warnings of respiratory disease events in children. Concurrently, the NET values can be used for comprehensive assessments of climate change in the future, which will help the government and health authorities better minimize the impacts of children's respiratory diseases.

Individual- and community-level shifts in mortality patterns during the January 2016 East Asia cold wave associated with a super El Niño event: Empirical evidence in Hong Kong

Despite the fact that cold weather has been widely documented as a major factor that can elevate the mortality in a subtropical population due to a lack of adaptability, the disastrous impacts from a major cold event in East Asia caused by a super El Niño event in January 2016 have passed largely unreported. In order to minimize the catastrophic risk from such events given ongoing concerns about climate change, as also noted in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR), it is important to evaluate the individual- and community-level shifts in mortality patterns during such cold waves, in order to develop health protocols for surveillance and disaster planning. This study evaluated the impacts of the 2016 cold wave on mortality patterns in Hong Kong because this city has been highlighted as a city with severe negative impacts from the disaster by social media. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we found significantly higher daily mortality for up to ten weeks during this cold wave compared to the same calendar days between 2007 and 2015. We also found that the short-term impact of the cold wave was prolonged and fatal, with the potential to increase the mortality across the city for up to five weeks compared to the pre-disaster period. An examination of the individual- and community-level shifts in mortality patterns reveals that the unmarried and economically inactive were most vulnerable during the 2016 cold wave, and respiratory diseases were the greatest medical problems, while age and gender effects as well as cardiovascular diseases did not enhance the fatal effect. The excessive mortality was citywide, and not limited to particular locations or specific characteristics of a community within the city. Based on the results, disaster education as well as social and health services should be provided to all local people for an extended period in order to minimize the fatal and prolonged effects of future cold waves.

Personal Cold Protection Behaviour and Its Associated Factors in 2016/17 Cold Days in Hong Kong: A Two-Year Cohort Telephone Survey Study

Background: Despite larger health burdens attributed to cold than heat, few studies have examined personal cold protection behaviours (PCPB). This study examined PCPB during cold waves and identified the associated factors in a subtropical city for those without central heating system. Methods: A cohort telephone survey was conducted in Hong Kong during a colder cold wave (2016) and a warmer cold wave (2017) among adults (≥15). Socio-demographic information, risk perception, self-reported adverse health effects and patterns of PCPB during cold waves were collected. Associated factors of PCPB in 2017 were identified using multiple logistic regression. Results: The cohort included 429 subjects. PCPB uptake rates were higher during the colder cold wave (p < 0.0005) except for ensuring indoor ventilation. Of the vulnerable groups, 63.7% had low self-perceived health risks. High risk perception, experience of adverse health effects during the 2016 cold wave, females and older groups were positive associated factors of PCPB in 2017 (p < 0.05). Conclusions: PCPB changed with self-risk perception. However vulnerable groups commonly underestimated their own risk. Indoor ventilation may be a concern during cold days in settings that are less prepared for cold weather. Targeted awareness-raising promotion for vulnerable groups and practical strategies for ensuring indoor ventilation are needed.

Effects of urbanization on winter wind chill conditions over China

Human-perceived wind chill describes the combined effects of wind velocity and low temperature, strongly related to human health and natural environment. Although long-term trends in the air or ambient temperature over China under global warming have been well studied in the literature, the changes in human-perceived wind chill conditions, especially under possible urbanization effects, are still not completely known. This paper investigates the changes of wind chill over China and quantifies the associated urbanization effect by examining nearly 2000 meteorological stations during 1961-2014 using the generalized additive model (GAM). Results show that the winter wind chill temperature (WCT) in China exhibits more prominent raising trends than the air temperature, i.e., 0.623 and 0.349 °C per decade, respectively. The wind speed (V) and wind chill days (WCD) decreased by 0.149 m/s and 1.970 days per decade, respectively. These trends become more substantial in densely populated and highly urbanized areas such as the North China Plain. The expansion of urban built-up area induces additional warming (reducing) to the increase (decrease) in WCT (WCD). On average, an increase from 0% to 100% in the urban fraction induced 0.290 ± 0.067 °C higher WCT (± denotes the 95% confidence interval), along with a reduction in V and WCD by 0.052 ± 0.014 m/s and 3.513 ± 0.387 days, respectively; whereas, the presence of the grassland and forest significantly diminishes the WCT and increases the WCD and surface V. It is expected that wind chill over China tends to be weakened under glocal warming and local urbanization in the near future. Our results have important implications for climate change mitigation, urban planning, landscape design, and air pollution abatement.

The effects of meteorological variables on ambulance attendance for cardiovascular diseases in Rasht, Iran

Climate change has a devastating effect on human societies, including their economic, cultural and health conditions. Our objective was to investigate the association between meteorological variables and ambulance attendance in the event of cardiovascular diseases using time-series analyses. We used a time series analysis to investigate the relationship between meteorological variables and ambulance attendance in the event of cardiovascular diseases from 2010 to 2015. To examine the effect of high temperatures on ambulance attendance, we investigated the relative risk of the daily volume of high temperature attendance, the 99th temperature percentile compared to the 75th temperature percentile. Upon examining the effect of cold temperatures on ambulance attendance, or the relative risk of the daily volume of attendance with low temperatures, the 1st temperature percentile compared to the 25th temperature percentile. In 1826 days, from March 21, 2010 to March 19, 2015, there were 7051 emergency calls for cardiovascular diseases. Significant variations were identified in the monthly (P < 0.001) and seasonal (P < 0.001) distributions. The highest seasonal incidence occurred in the winter and lowest was observed in the summer. With regard to association between cold temperature and calls for ambulance attendance in the event of cardiovascular diseases according to lag days, our findings showed a significant increase in lag 7 ((RR, 1.026; 95% CI, 1.003 to 1.050), lag 8 (RR, 1.023; 95% CI, 1.005to 1.041) and lag 9 (RR, 1.019; 95% CI, 1.002 to 1.036) respectively. These results suggest that the demand for an ambulance for cardiovascular diseases was higher in the cold weather and that humidity can increase this demand in the warm seasons.

Spatiotemporal Prediction of Increasing Winter Perceived Temperature across a Sub-Tropical City for Sustainable Planning and Climate Change Mitigation

Climate variability has been documented as being key to influencing human wellbeing across cities as it is linked to mortality and illness due to changes in the perceived weather cycle. Many studies have investigated the impact of summer temperature on human health and have proposed mitigation strategies for summer heat waves. However, sub-tropical cities are still experiencing winter temperature variations. Increasing winter perceived temperature through the decades may soon affect city wellbeing, due to a larger temperature change between normal winter days and extreme cold events, which may cause higher health risk due to lack of adaptation and self-preparedness. Therefore, winter perceived temperature should also be considered and integrated in urban sustainable planning. This study has integrated the increasing winter perceived temperature as a factor for developing spatiotemporal protocols for mitigating the adverse impact of climate change. Land surface temperature (LST) derived from satellite images and building data extracted from aerial photographs were used to simulate the adjusted wind chill equivalent temperature (AWCET) particularly for sub-tropical scenarios between 1990 and 2010 of the Kowloon Peninsula, Hong Kong. Compared with perceived temperature based on the representative station located at the headquarters of the Hong Kong Observatory, the temperature of half the study area in the Kowloon Peninsula has raised by 1.5 °C. The areas with less green space and less public open space in 2010 show higher relative temperatures. Socioeconomically deprived areas (e.g., areas with lower median monthly income) may suffer more from this scenario, but not all types of socioeconomic disparities are associated with poor sustainable planning. Based on our results and the "no-one left behind" guideline from the United Nations, climate change mitigation should be conducted by targeting socioeconomic neighborhoods more than just aging communities.

Impacts of cold weather on emergency hospital admission in Texas, 2004-2013

Cold weather has been identified as a major cause of weather-related deaths in the U.S. Although the effects of cold weather on mortality has been investigated extensively, studies on how cold weather affects hospital admissions are limited particularly in the Southern United States. This study aimed to examine impacts of cold weather on emergency hospital admissions (EHA) in 12 major Texas metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for the 10-year period, 2004-2013. A two-stage approach was employed to examine the associations between cold weather and EHA. First, the cold effects on each MSA were estimated using distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). Then a random effects meta-analysis was applied to estimate pooled effects across all 12 MSAs. Percent increase in risk and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated as with a 1 °C (°C) decrease in temperature below a MSA-specific threshold for cold effects. Age-stratified and cause-specific EHA were modeled separately. The majority of the 12 Texas MSAs were associated with an increased risk in EHA ranging from 0.1% to 3.8% with a 1 ⁰C decrease below cold thresholds. The pooled effect estimate was 1.6% (95% CI: 0.9%, 2.2%) increase in all-cause EHA risk with 1 ⁰C decrease in temperature. Cold wave effects were also observed in most eastern and southern Texas MSAs. Effects of cold on all-cause EHA were highest in the very elderly (2.4%, 95% CI: 1.2%, 3.6%). Pooled estimates for cause-specific EHA association were strongest in pneumonia (3.3%, 95% CI: 2.8%, 3.9%), followed by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (3.3%, 95% CI: 2.1%, 4.5%) and respiratory diseases (2.8%, 95% CI: 1.9%, 3.7%). Cold weather generally increases EHA risk significantly in Texas, especially in respiratory diseases, and cold effects estimates increased by elderly population (aged over 75 years). Our findings provide insight into better intervention strategy to reduce adverse health effects of cold weather among targeted vulnerable populations.

Association between apparent temperature and acute coronary syndrome admission in Rasht, Iran

Objective

Our objective was to assess the relations between apparent temperature and incidence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in Rasht, Iran.

Methods

We used a time-series analysis to investigate the relationship between apparent temperature and hospital admission from 2005 to 2014. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the association between ACS hospitalisation and apparent temperature. To examine the high-temperature effect on ACS hospital admission, the relative risk of ACS hospital admission associated with high temperature, the 99th percentile of temperature (34.7°C) compared with the 75th percentile of temperature (26.9°C), was calculated. To assess the cold effect on ACS hospital admission, the relative risk of ACS hospital admission associated with cold temperature, the first percentile of temperature (-0.2°C) compared with the 25th percentile of temperature (8.2°C), was evaluated.

Results

The cumulative effect of hot exposure on ACS admissions was statistically significant, with a relative risk of 2.04 (95% CI 1.06 to 4.16). The cumulative effect of cold temperature on ACS admissions was found to be non-significant. The highest risk of ACS admission in women was in 38°C (RR, 2.03, 95%  CI 1.04 to 4.18). The effect of hot temperature on ACS admission occurred immediately (lag 0) (RR, 1.09, 95%  CI 1.001 to 1.19).

Conclusions

The high apparent temperature is correlated with a higher ACS admission especially on the same day. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related morbidity especially in the elderly.

Cold-related mortality vs heat-related mortality in a changing climate: A case study in Vilnius (Lithuania)

INTRODUCTION

Direct health effects of extreme temperatures are a significant environmental health problem in Lithuania, and could worsen further under climate change. This paper attempts to describe the change in environmental temperature conditions that the urban population of Vilnius could experience under climate change, and the effects such change could have on excess heat-related and cold-related mortality in two future periods within the 21st century.

METHODS

We modelled the urban climate of Vilnius for the summer and winter seasons during a sample period (2009-2015) and projected summertime and wintertime daily temperatures for two prospective periods, one in the near (2030-2045) and one in the far future (2085-2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the historical relationship between temperature and mortality for the period 2009-2015, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under a changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatisation and acclimatisation to heat and cold based on a constant-percentile threshold temperature.

RESULTS

During the sample period 2009-2015 in summertime we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 30 °C (the 96th percentile of the series), with an average of around 7 deaths per year. Under a no acclimatisation scenario, annual average heat-related mortality would rise to 24 deaths/year (95% CI: 8.4-38.4) in the near future and to 46 deaths/year (95% CI: 16.4-74.4) in the far future. Under a heat acclimatisation scenario, mortality would not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. Regarding wintertime cold-related mortality in the sample period 2009-2015, we observed increased mortality on days on which the minimum daily temperature fell below - 12 °C (the 7th percentile of the series), with an average of around 10 deaths a year. Keeping the threshold temperature constant, annual average cold-related mortality would decrease markedly in the near future, to 5 deaths/year (95% CI: 0.8-7.9) and even more in the far future, down to 0.44 deaths/year (95% C: 0.1-0.8). Assuming a "middle ground" between the acclimatisation and non-acclimatisation scenarios, the decrease in cold-related mortality will not compensate the increase in heat-related mortality.

CONCLUSION

Thermal extremes, both heat and cold, constitute a serious public health threat in Vilnius, and in a changing climate the decrease in mortality attributable to cold will not compensate for the increase in mortality attributable to heat. Study results reinforce the notion that public health prevention against thermal extremes should be designed as a dynamic, adaptive process from the inception.

Impact of weather factors on influenza hospitalization across different age groups in subtropical Hong Kong

Accumulating evidence demonstrates the significant influence of weather factors, especially temperature and humidity, on influenza seasonality. However, it is still unclear whether temperature variation within the same day, that is diurnal temperature range (DTR), is related to influenza seasonality. In addition, the different effects of weather factors on influenza seasonality across age groups have not been well documented in previous studies. Our study aims to explore the effects of DTR and humidity on influenza seasonality, and the differences in the association between weather factors and influenza seasonality among different age groups in Hong Kong, China. Generalized additive models were conducted to flexibly assess the impact of DTR, absolute humidity (vapor pressure, VP), and relative humidity on influenza seasonality in Hong Kong, China, from January 2012 to December 2016. Stratified analyses were performed to determine if the effects of weather factors differ across age groups (< 5, 5-9, 10-64, and > 64 years). The results suggested that DTR, absolute humidity, and relative humidity were significantly related to influenza seasonality in dry period (when VP is less than 20 mb), while no significant association was found in humid period (when VP is greater than 20 mb). The percentage changes of hospitalization rates due to influenza associated with per unit increase of weather factors in the very young children (age 0-4) and the elderly (age 65+) were higher than that in the adults (age 10-64). Diurnal temperature range is significantly associated with influenza seasonality in dry period, and the effects of weather factors differ across age groups in Hong Kong, China.

Temporal variation in associations between temperature and years of life lost in a southern China city with typical subtropical climate

Though some studies have explored the association between temperature and years of life lost (YLL), limited evidence is available regarding the effect of temporal variation on the temperature-YLL relationship, especially in developing countries. We explored temporal variation in the associations between temperature and YLL before and after 2013 heat waves (period I: Jan 2008 to Sep 2013, period II: Oct 2013 to Dec 2015) in Ningbo, a southern China city with typical subtropical climate. The heat associations showed an increasing trend. The number of YLL due to heat-related respiratory mortality was significantly higher in period II (46.03, 95% CI: 11.97, 80.08) than in period I (7.21, 95% CI: -10.04, 24.46) among married individuals. In contrast, the cold associations presented an attenuating trend, and the number of YLL due to non-accidental mortality was significantly lower in period II (262.32, 95% CI: -304.18, 828.83) than in period I (916.78, 95% CI: 596.05, 1237.51). These results indicate more effort still needed to be made to reduce heat-related YLL even after periods of extreme heat. Furthermore, using YLL provided complementary information for identifying vulnerable subgroups, which has important implications for the planning of public health interventions.

Ambient temperature and emergency department visits: Time-series analysis in 12 Chinese cities

BACKGROUND

The association between ambient temperature and mortality has been well documented worldwide. However, limited data are available on nonfatal health outcomes, such as emergency department visits (EDVs), particularly from China.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the temperature-EDV association in 12 Chinese cities; and to assess the modification effects by region, gender and age.

METHODS

Daily meteorological data and non-accidental EDVs were collected during 2011-2014. Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model was applied to examine the temperature-lag-EDV association in each city. The effect estimates were pooled using multivariate meta-analysis at the national and regional level. Stratified analyses were performed by gender and age-groups. Sensitivity analyses adjusting for air pollution and relative humidity were conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 4,443,127 EDVs were collected from the 12 cities. Both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased risk of EDVs, with minimum-mortality temperature located at 64th percentile of temperature. The effect of cold temperature appeared on day 2 and persisted until day 30, causing a cumulative relative risk (RR) of 1.80 (1.54, 2.11). The effect of hot temperature appeared immediately and lasted until day 3, with a cumulative RR of 1.15 (1.03, 1.29). The effect of temperature on EDVs was similar in male and female but was attenuated with increasing age. The effect of cold temperature on EDVs was greater in southern areas of the country whereas the hot effect was greater in northern cities. The association was robust to a large range of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

In China, there is a U-shaped association between temperature and risk of EDVs that is independent of air pollution and humidity. The temperature-EDV association varies with latitude and age-groups but is not affected by gender. Forecasting models for hospital emergency departments may be improved if temperature is included as an independent predictor.

Association of cold temperature and mortality and effect modification in the subtropical plateau monsoon climate of Yuxi, China

BACKGROUND

Consistent evidence has shown excess mortality associated with cold temperature, but some important details of the cold-mortality association (e.g. slope and threshold) have not been adequately investigated and few studies focused on the cold effect in high-altitude areas of developing countries. We attempted to quantify the cold effect on mortality, identify the details, and evaluate effect modification in the distinct subtropical plateau monsoon climate of Yuxi, a high plateau region in southwest China.

METHODS

From daily mortality and meteorological data during 2009-2014, we used a quasi-Poisson model combined with a "natural cubic spline-natural cubic spline" distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the temperature-mortality relationship and then a simpler "hockey-stick" model to investigate the cold effect and details.

RESULTS

Cold temperature was associated with increased mortality, and the relative risk of cold effect (1st relative to 10th temperature percentile) on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality for lag 0-21 days was 1.40 (95% confidence interval: 1.19-1.66), 1.61 (1.28-2.02), and 1.13 (0.78-1.64), respectively. A 1°C decrease below a cold threshold of 9.1°C (8th percentile) for lags 0-21 was associated with a 7.35% (3.75-11.09%) increase in non-accidental mortality. The cold-mortality association was not significantly affected by cause-specific mortality, gender, age, marital status, ethnicity, occupation, or previous history of hypertension.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an adverse impact of cold on mortality in Yuxi, China, and a temperature of 9.1°C is an important cut-off for cold-related mortality for residents.

Milder form of heat-related symptoms and thermal sensation: a study in a Mediterranean climate

Mild heat-related health effects and their potential association with meteorological and personal parameters in relation to subjective and objective thermal sensation were investigated. Micrometeorological measurements and questionnaire surveys were conducted in an urban Mediterranean environment during a warm, cool, and a transitional season. The participants were asked to indicate their thermal sensation based on a seven-point scale and report whether they were experiencing any of the following symptoms: headache, dizziness, breathing difficulties, and exhaustion. Two thermal indices, Actual Sensation Vote (ASV) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), were estimated in order to obtain an objective measure of individuals' thermal sensation. Binary logistic regression was applied to identify risk parameters while cluster analysis was used to determine thresholds of air temperature, ASV and UTCI related to health effects. Exhaustion was the most frequent symptom reported by the interviewees. Females and smokers were more likely to report heat-related symptoms than males and nonsmokers. Based on cluster analysis, 35 °C could be a cutoff point for the manifestation of heat-related symptoms during summer. The threshold for ASV was 0.85 corresponding to "warm" thermal sensation and for UTCI was about 30.85 °C corresponding to "moderate heat stress" according to the Mediterranean assessment scale.

Mortality attributable to extreme temperatures in Spain: A comparative analysis by city

BACKGROUND

The Low Temperature Days (LTD) have attracted far less attention than that of High Temperature Days (HTD), though its impact on mortality is at least comparable. This lower degree of attention may perhaps be due to the fact that its influence on mortality is less pronounced and longer-term, and that there are other concomitant infectious winters factors. In a climate-change scenario, the studies undertaken to date report differing results. The aim of this study was to analyse mortality attributable to both thermal extremes in Spain's 52 provinces across the period 2000-2009, and estimate the related economic cost to show the benefit or "profitability" of implementing prevention plans against LTD.

METHODS

Previous studies enabled us: to obtain the maximum daily temperature above which HTD occurred and the minimum daily temperature below which LTD occurred in the 52 provincial capitals analysed across the same study period; and to calculate the relative and attributable risks (%) associated with daily mortality in each capital. These measures of association were then used to make different calculations to obtain the daily mean mortality attributable to both thermal extremes. To this end, we obtained a summary of the number of degrees whereby the temperature exceeded (excess °C) or fell short (deficit °C) of the threshold temperature for each capital, and calculated the respective number of extreme temperatures days. The economic estimates rated the prevention plans as being 68% effective.

RESULTS

Over the period considered, the number of HTD (4373) was higher than the number of LTD (3006) for Spain as a whole. Notwithstanding this, in every provincial capital the mean daily mortality attributable to heat was lower (3deaths/day) than that attributable to cold (3.48deaths/day). In terms of the economic impact of the activation of prevention plans against LTD, these could be assumed to avoid 2.37 deaths on each LTD, which translated as a saving of €0.29M. Similarly, in the case of heat, 2.04 deaths could be assumed to be avoided each day on which the prevention plan against HTD was activated, amounting to a saving of €0.25M. While the economic cost of cold-related mortality across the ten-year period 2000-2009 was €871.7M, that attributable to heat could be put at €1093.2M.

CONCLUSION

The effect of extreme temperatures on daily mortality was similar across the study period for Spain overall. The lower number of days with LTD meant, however, that daily cold-related mortality was higher than daily heat-related mortality, thereby making prevention plans against LTD more "profitable" prevention plans against HTD in terms of avoidable mortality.

Estimating Temperature-Mortality Exposure-Response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-City Level of China

Few studies have explored temperature–mortality relationships in China, especially at the multi-large city level. This study was based on the data of seven typical, large Chinese cities to examine temperature-mortality relationships and optimum temperature of China. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to analyze the acute-effect of temperature on non-accidental mortality, and meta-analysis was used to merge data. Furthermore, the lagged effects of temperature up to 40 days on mortality and optimum temperature were analyzed using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We found that for all non-accidental mortality, high temperature could significantly increase the excess risk (ER) of death by 0.33% (95% confidence interval: 0.11%, 0.56%) with the temperature increase of 1 °C. Similar but non-significant ER of death was observed when temperature decreased. The lagged effect of temperature showed that the relative risk of non-accidental mortality was lowest at 21 °C. Our research suggests that high temperatures are more likely to cause an acute increase in mortality. There was a lagged effect of temperature on mortality, with an optimum temperature of 21 °C. Our results could provide a theoretical basis for climate-related public health policy.

Geographical variation in relative risks associated with cold waves in Spain: The need for a cold wave prevention plan

In general, there are few studies that analyse the impact of low temperatures on mortality and fewer still that use cold-wave-definition thresholds based on epidemiological and non-climatological criteria. Such a threshold definition, which took into account population features such as socio-economic and demographic characteristics, made it possible for a specific threshold temperature to be obtained for each of Spain's 52 provincial capitals in this study. Using generalised linear models with the Poisson regression link, and controlling for trend, autocorrelations and seasonalities of the series, and influenza epidemics, we obtained the impact of low temperatures on mortality in each provincial capital by calculating the relative risks (RRs) and attributable risks (ARs) for natural as well as circulatory and respiratory causes. The study showed higher minimum temperature thresholds in coastal areas, and an overall impact of cold on mortality in Spain due to natural causes RR=1.13 (95% CI: 1.11-1.16), circulatory causes RR=1.18 (95% CI: 1.15-1.22) and respiratory causes RR=1.24 (95% CI: 1.20-1.29) slightly greater than that obtained to date for heat. From a public health standpoint, there is a need for specific cold wave prevention plans at a regional level which would enable mortality attributable to low temperatures to be reduced. These plans have shown themselves to be effective in decreasing heat-related mortality, and we feel that they are essential for reducing cold-related effects on morbidity and mortality.

Searching for the best modeling specification for assessing the effects of temperature and humidity on health: a time series analysis in three European cities

Epidemiological time series studies suggest daily temperature and humidity are associated with adverse health effects including increased mortality and hospital admissions. However, there is no consensus over which metric or lag best describes the relationships. We investigated which temperature and humidity model specification most adequately predicted mortality in three large European cities. Daily counts of all-cause mortality, minimum, maximum and mean temperature and relative humidity and apparent temperature (a composite measure of ambient and dew point temperature) were assembled for Athens, London, and Rome for 6 years between 1999 and 2005. City-specific Poisson regression models were fitted separately for warm (April-September) and cold (October-March) periods adjusting for seasonality, air pollution, and public holidays. We investigated goodness of model fit for each metric for delayed effects up to 13 days using three model fit criteria: sum of the partial autocorrelation function, AIC, and GCV. No uniformly best index for all cities and seasonal periods was observed. The effects of temperature were uniformly shown to be more prolonged during cold periods and the majority of models suggested separate temperature and humidity variables performed better than apparent temperature in predicting mortality. Our study suggests that the nature of the effects of temperature and humidity on mortality vary between cities for unknown reasons which require further investigation but may relate to city-specific population, socioeconomic, and environmental characteristics. This may have consequences on epidemiological studies and local temperature-related warning systems.

The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost in Guangzhou, China

Limited evidence is available on the association between temperature and years of life lost (YLL). We applied distributed lag non-linear model to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on YLL due to cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, China. We found that hot effects appeared immediately, while cold effects were more delayed and lasted for 14 days. On average, 1 °C decrease from 25(th) to 1(st) percentile of temperature was associated with an increase of 31.15 (95%CI: 20.57, 41.74), 12.86 (8.05, 17.68) and 6.64 (3.68, 9.61) YLL along lag 0-14 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively. The corresponding estimate of cumulative hot effects (1 °C increase from 75(th) to 99(th) percentile of temperature) was 12.71 (-2.80, 28.23), 4.81 (-2.25, 11.88) and 2.81 (-1.54, 7.16). Effect estimates of cold and hot temperatures-related YLL were higher in people aged up to 75 years and persons with low education level than the elderly and those with high education level, respectively. The mortality risks associated with cold and hot temperatures were greater on the elderly and persons with low education level. This study highlights that YLL provides a complementary method for assessing the death burden of temperature.

The Trends in Excess Mortality in Winter vs. Summer in a Sub-Tropical City and Its Association with Extreme Climate Conditions

While there is literature on excess winter mortality, there are few studies examining the evolution of its trend which may be changing in parallel with global warming. This study aimed to examine the trend in the excess mortality in winter as compared to summer among the older population in a sub-tropical city and to explore its association with extreme weather. We used a retrospective study based on the registered deaths among the older population in Hong Kong during 1976-2010. An Excess Mortality for Winter versus Summer (EMWS) Index was used to quantify the excess number of deaths in winter compared to summer. Multiple linear regressions were used to analyze the trends and its association with extreme weather. Overall, the EMWS Index for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, chronic lower respiratory diseases, pneumonia, and other causes were 43.0%, 34.2%, 42.7%, 23.4% and 17.6%, respectively. Significant decline was observed in the EMWS Index for chronic lower respiratory diseases and other causes. The trend in the index for cerebrovascular diseases depended on the age group, with older groups showing a decline but younger groups not showing any trend. Meteorological variables, in terms of extreme weather, were associated with the trends in the EMWS Index. We concluded that shrinking excess winter mortality from cerebrovascular diseases and chronic lower respiratory diseases was found in a sub-tropical city. These trends were associated with extreme weather, which coincided with global warming.

Temperature, hospital admissions and emergency room visits in Lhasa, Tibet: a time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Tibet of China, with an average altitude of over 4000 m, has experienced noticeable changes in its climate over the last 50 years. The association between temperature and morbidity (most commonly represented by hospital admissions) has been documented mainly in developed countries. Little is known about patterns in China; nor have the health effects of temperature variations been closely studied in highland areas, worldwide.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the temperature-morbidity association in Lhasa, the capital city of Tibet, using sex- and age-specific hospitalizations, excluding those due to external causes.

METHODS

A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on morbidity (including total emergency room visits, total and cause-specific hospital admissions, sex- and age-specific non-external admissions).

RESULTS

High temperatures are associated with increases in morbidity, to a greater extent than low temperatures. Lag effects of high and low temperatures were cause-specific. The relative risks (RR) of high temperature for total emergency room visits and non-external hospitalizations were 1.162 (95% CI: 1.002-1.349) and 1.161 (95% CI: 1.007-1.339) respectively, for lag 0-14 days. The strongest cumulative effect of heat for lag 0-27 days was on admissions for infectious diseases (RR: 2.067, 95% CI: 1.026-4.027). Acute heat effects at lag 0 were related with increases of renal (RR: 1.478, 95% CI: 1.005-2.174) and respiratory diseases (RR: 1.119, 95% CI: 1.010-1.240), whereas immediate cold effects increased admission for digestive diseases (RR: 1.132, 95% CI: 1.002-1.282). Those ≥65 years of age and males were more vulnerable to high temperatures.

CONCLUSION

We provide a first look at the temperature-morbidity relationship in Tibet. Exposure to both hot and cold temperatures resulted in increased admissions to hospital, but the immediate causes varied. We suggest that initiatives should be taken to reduce the adverse effects of temperature extremes in Tibet.

The effects of summer temperature and heat waves on heat-related illness in a coastal city of China, 2011-2013

BACKGROUND

Devastating health effects from recent heat waves in China have highlighted the importance of understanding health consequences from extreme heat stress. Despite the increasing mortality from extreme heat, very limited studies have quantified the effects of summer extreme temperature on heat-related illnesses in China.

METHODS

The associations between extreme heat and daily heat-related illnesses that occurred in the summers of 2011-2013 in Ningbo, China, have been examined, using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) based on 3862 cases. The excess morbidities of heat-related illness during each heat wave have been calculated separately and the cumulative heat wave effects on age-, sex-, and cause-specific illnesses in each year along lags have been estimated as well.

RESULTS

After controlling the effect of relative humidity, it is found that maximum temperature, rather than heat index, was a better predictor of heat-related illnesses in summers. A positive association between maximum temperatures and occurrence of heat-related diseases was apparent, especially at short lag effects. Six heat waves during the period of 2011-2013 were identified and all associated with excess heat-related illnesses. Relative to the average values for the corresponding periods in 2011 and 2012, a total estimated 679 extra heat-related illnesses occurred during three heat waves in 2013. The significant prolonged heat wave effects on total heat-related illnesses during heat waves in three study years have also been identified. The strongest cumulative effect of heat waves was on severe heat diseases in 2013, with a 10-fold increased risk. More males than females, individuals with more severe forms of illness, were more affected by the heat. However, all age groups were vulnerable.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent heat waves had a substantial and delayed effect on heat illnesses in Ningbo. Relevant active well-organized public health initiatives should be implemented to reduce the adverse effects of heat extremes on the illnesses.

Temperature and mortality on the roof of the world: a time-series analysis in three Tibetan counties, China

BACKGROUND

Tibet, with an average altitude of more than 4,000 meters, is warming faster than anywhere else in China. However, there have been no studies in Tibet of the relation between ambient temperature and mortality.

METHODS

We examined mean temperature and daily mortality in three Tibetan counties (Chengguan, Jiangzi and Naidong) using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) based on 5,610 deaths that occurred in 2008-2012. We separately investigated hot and cold effects on non-accidental deaths, cardiovascular deaths, out-of-hospital deaths and vulnerability factors including age, sex and education.

RESULTS

In all three counties, the effect of heat tended to be immediate, while the impact of cold lasted longer. The effects were consistent but modest in size and not statistically significant except for cumulative cold effects in Jiangzi (lag=0-14, RR=2.251, 95% CI=1.054-4.849). Those who were more vulnerable to temperature extremes tended to be men, the elderly (over 65 years) and illiterate persons. We found stronger temperature effects on cardiovascular deaths than on all-cause mortality, and we also observed an increase in out-of-hospital mortality in one county.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to investigate the temperature-mortality relationship in Tibet, and the findings may guide public health programs and other interventions to protect the population against extreme temperatures in a developing Tibet.