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Zeng Q, Zhou J, Meng Q, Qian W, Wang Z, Yang L, Wang Z, Yang T, Liu L, Qin Z, Zhao X, Kan H, Hong F. Environmental inequalities and multimorbidity: Insights from the Southwest China Multi-Ethnic Cohort Study. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 908:167744. [PMID: 37863237 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167744] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2023] [Revised: 09/24/2023] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 10/22/2023]
Abstract
Multimorbidity is an increasingly significant public health challenge worldwide. Although the association between environmental factors and the morbidity and mortality of individual chronic diseases is well-established, the relationship between environmental inequalities and multimorbidity, as well as the patterns of multimorbidity across different areas and ethnic groups, remains unclear. We first focus on analyzing the differences in environmental exposures and patterns of multimorbidity across diverse areas and ethnic groups. The results show that individuals of Han ethnicity residing in Chongqing and Sichuan are exposure to higher levels of air pollutants such as PM2.5, PM10, and NO2. Conversely, Tibetans in Tibet and Yi people in Yunnan face elevated concentrations of O3. Furthermore, the Dong, Miao, Buyi ethnicities in Guizhou and Bai in Yunnan have greater access to green spaces. The key multimorbidity patterns observed in Southwest China are related to metabolic abnormalities combined with digestive system diseases. However, significant differences in multimorbidity patterns exist among different regions and ethnic groups. Further utilizing the logistic regression model, the analysis demonstrates that increased exposure to environmental pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, O3) is significantly associated with higher odds ratios of multimorbidity. Conversely, a greater presence of green spaces (NDVI 250, NDVI 500, NDVI 1000) significantly reduces the risk of multimorbidity. This large-scale epidemiological study provides some evidence of a significant association between environmental inequalities and multimorbidity. By addressing these environmental inequalities and promoting healthy environments for all, we can work towards reducing the prevalence of multimorbidity and improving overall population health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qibing Zeng
- The Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Disease Control, Ministry of Education & Guizhou Provincial Ecological Food Creation Engineering Research Center & School of Public Health, Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang, 550025, China
| | - Jingbo Zhou
- Lab of Computational Chemistry and Drug Design, State Key Laboratory of Chemical Oncogenomics, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, 518055, China
| | - Qiong Meng
- School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, 650500, China
| | - Wen Qian
- Chengdu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, 610044, China
| | - Zihao Wang
- Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, 400042, China
| | - La Yang
- High Altitude Health Science Research Center of Tibet University, Lhasa, 850013, China
| | - Ziyun Wang
- The Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Disease Control, Ministry of Education & Guizhou Provincial Ecological Food Creation Engineering Research Center & School of Public Health, Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang, 550025, China
| | - Tingting Yang
- The Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Disease Control, Ministry of Education & Guizhou Provincial Ecological Food Creation Engineering Research Center & School of Public Health, Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang, 550025, China
| | - Leilei Liu
- The Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Disease Control, Ministry of Education & Guizhou Provincial Ecological Food Creation Engineering Research Center & School of Public Health, Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang, 550025, China
| | - Zixiu Qin
- The Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Disease Control, Ministry of Education & Guizhou Provincial Ecological Food Creation Engineering Research Center & School of Public Health, Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang, 550025, China
| | - Xing Zhao
- West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041, China.
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China.
| | - Feng Hong
- The Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Disease Control, Ministry of Education & Guizhou Provincial Ecological Food Creation Engineering Research Center & School of Public Health, Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang, 550025, China.
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Kim SE, Hashizume M, Armstrong B, Gasparrini A, Oka K, Hijioka Y, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Honda Y. Mortality Risk of Hot Nights: A Nationwide Population-Based Retrospective Study in Japan. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2023; 131:57005. [PMID: 37172196 PMCID: PMC10181675 DOI: 10.1289/ehp11444] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2022] [Revised: 03/06/2023] [Accepted: 03/30/2023] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The health effects of heat are well documented; however, limited information is available regarding the health risks of hot nights. Hot nights have become more common, increasing at a faster rate than hot days, making it urgent to understand the characteristics of the hot night risk. OBJECTIVES We estimated the effects of hot nights on the cause- and location-specific mortality in a nationwide assessment over 43 y (1973-2015) using a unified analytical framework in the 47 prefectures of Japan. METHODS Hot nights were defined as days with a) minimum temperature ≥ 25 ° C (HN 25 ) and b) minimum temperature ≥ 95 th percentile (HN 95 th ) for the prefecture. We conducted a time-series analysis using a two-stage approach during the hot night occurrence season (April-November). For each prefecture, we estimated associations between hot nights and mortality controlling for potential confounders including daily mean temperature. We then used a random-effects meta-analytic model to estimate the pooled cumulative association. RESULTS Overall, 24,721,226 deaths were included in this study. Nationally, all-cause mortality increased by 9%-10% [HN 25 relative risk ( RR ) = 1.09 , 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08, 1.10; HN 95 th RR = 1.10 , 95% CI: 1.09, 1.11] during hot nights in comparison with nonhot nights. All 11 cause-specific mortalities were strongly associated with hot nights, and the corresponding associations appeared to be acute and lasted a few weeks, depending on the cause of death. The strength of the association between hot nights and mortality varied among prefectures. We found a higher mortality risk from hot nights in early summer in comparison with the late summer in all regions. CONCLUSIONS Our findings support the evidence of mortality impacts from hot nights in excess of that explicable by daily mean temperature and have implications useful for establishing public health policy and research efforts estimating the health effects of climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11444.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Japan
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kazutaka Oka
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Yasuaki Hijioka
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
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Zhang W, Yang Y, Liu Y, Zhou L, Yang Y, Pan L, Ba Y, Wang R, Huo Y, Ren X, Bai Y, Cheng N. Associations between congenital heart disease and air pollutants at different gestational weeks: a time-series analysis. ENVIRONMENTAL GEOCHEMISTRY AND HEALTH 2023; 45:2213-2228. [PMID: 35869374 DOI: 10.1007/s10653-022-01315-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2021] [Accepted: 05/28/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Exposure to air pollution during pregnancy has been linked to birth defects. But the directions of studies on the associations between air pollutants exposure and effect on the incidence of congenital heart disease (CHDs) were inconsistent. To date, few studies were concentrated on the effects of both particulate matter and gaseous air pollutant exposure on CHDs across the full gestational week simultaneously. Our study aimed to investigate the critical exposure windows for each air pollutant throughout 40 gestational weeks. Data on CHDs, air pollution, and meteorological factors from 2013 to 2019 were collected in Lanzhou, China. A distributed lag nonlinear model combined with a quasi-Poisson regression model was applied to evaluate the weekly exposure-lag-response association between air pollutants levels and CHDs, and the subgroup analyses were conducted by gender (baby boy and baby girl). The study included 1607 mother-infant pairs. The results demonstrated that exposure of pregnant women to particulate matter ≤ 5 μm (PM2.5) at lag 1-4 weeks was significantly associated with the risk of CHDs, and the strongest effects were observed in the lag 1 week (1.150, 95%CI 1.059-1.248). For exposure to particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM10) at lag 1-3 weeks, the strongest effects were observed in the lag 1 week (1.075, 95% CI 1.026-1.128). For exposure to sulfur dioxide (SO2) at lag 1-4 weeks, the strongest effects were observed in the lag 1 week (1.154, 95% CI 1.025-1.299). For exposure to carbon monoxide (CO) at lag 1-3 weeks, the strongest effects were observed in the lag 1 week (1.089, 95% CI 1.002-1.183). For exposure to ozone (O3) concentration at lag 9-15 weeks, the strongest effects were observed in the lag 15 weeks (1.628, 95% CI 1.001-2.649). The cumulative effects of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, and CO along weeks with a maximum of 1.609 (95%CI 1.000-2.589), 1.286 (95%CI 1.007-1.641), 1.648 (95%CI 1.018-2.668), and 1.368 (95%CI 1.003, 1.865), respectively. The effects were obvious in the initial gestational weeks too. Through the gender stratification analysis, the air pollutants with significant effects were PM2.5 for baby boys and PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, NO2, and O3 for baby girl. For the relationship between CHDs and air pollution in Lanzhou, PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, and O3 played an important role in the initial gestational weeks, especially for baby girl.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenling Zhang
- School of Public Health, Institute of Epidemiology and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, People's Republic of China
- Center for Reproductive Health and birth defects at Lanzhou University, Basic Medical College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, People's Republic of China
| | - Yanjun Yang
- Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital of Lanzhou, Lanzhou, 730050, Gansu, People's Republic of China
| | - Yanyan Liu
- School of Public Health, Institute of Epidemiology and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, People's Republic of China
- Center for Reproductive Health and birth defects at Lanzhou University, Basic Medical College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, People's Republic of China
| | - Li Zhou
- Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital of Lanzhou, Lanzhou, 730050, Gansu, People's Republic of China
| | - Yan Yang
- Center for Reproductive Health and birth defects at Lanzhou University, Basic Medical College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, People's Republic of China
| | - Li Pan
- Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital of Lanzhou, Lanzhou, 730050, Gansu, People's Republic of China
| | - Yupei Ba
- School of Public Health, Institute of Epidemiology and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, People's Republic of China
- Center for Reproductive Health and birth defects at Lanzhou University, Basic Medical College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, People's Republic of China
| | - Ruijuan Wang
- Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital of Lanzhou, Lanzhou, 730050, Gansu, People's Republic of China
| | - Yanbei Huo
- School of Public Health, Institute of Epidemiology and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, People's Republic of China
- Center for Reproductive Health and birth defects at Lanzhou University, Basic Medical College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiaoyu Ren
- Center for Reproductive Health and birth defects at Lanzhou University, Basic Medical College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, People's Republic of China
| | - Yana Bai
- School of Public Health, Institute of Epidemiology and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, People's Republic of China
| | - Ning Cheng
- Center for Reproductive Health and birth defects at Lanzhou University, Basic Medical College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, People's Republic of China.
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Fan JF, Xiao YC, Feng YF, Niu LY, Tan X, Sun JC, Leng YQ, Li WY, Wang WZ, Wang YK. A systematic review and meta-analysis of cold exposure and cardiovascular disease outcomes. Front Cardiovasc Med 2023; 10:1084611. [PMID: 37051068 PMCID: PMC10083291 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2023.1084611] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2022] [Accepted: 02/22/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023] Open
Abstract
BackgroundCold exposure has been considered an essential risk factor for the global disease burden, while its role in cardiovascular diseases is still underappreciated. The increase in frequency and duration of extreme cold weather events like cold spells makes it an urgent task to evaluate the effects of ambient cold on different types of cardiovascular disease and to understand the factors contributing to the population's vulnerability.MethodsIn the present systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane. We included original research that explored the association between cold exposure (low temperature and cold spell) and cardiovascular disease outcomes (mortality and morbidity). We did a random-effects meta-analysis to pool the relative risk (RR) of the association between a 1°C decrease in temperature or cold spells and cardiovascular disease outcomes.ResultsIn total, we included 159 studies in the meta-analysis. As a result, every 1°C decrease in temperature increased cardiovascular disease-related mortality by 1.6% (RR 1.016; [95% CI 1.015–1.018]) and morbidity by 1.2% (RR 1.012; [95% CI 1.010–1.014]). The most pronounced effects of low temperatures were observed in the mortality of coronary heart disease (RR 1.015; [95% CI 1.011–1.019]) and the morbidity of aortic aneurysm and dissection (RR 1.026; [95% CI 1.021–1.031]), while the effects were not significant in hypertensive disease outcomes. Notably, we identified climate zone, country income level and age as crucial influential factors in the impact of ambient cold exposure on cardiovascular disease. Moreover, the impact of cold spells on cardiovascular disease outcomes is significant, which increased mortality by 32.4% (RR 1.324; [95% CI 1.2341.421]) and morbidity by 13.8% (RR 1.138; [95% CI 1.015–1.276]).ConclusionCold exposure could be a critical risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, and the cold effect varies between disease types and climate zones.Systematic Review Registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO, identifier: CRD42022347247.
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Psistaki K, Dokas IM, Paschalidou AK. Analysis of the heat- and cold-related cardiovascular mortality in an urban mediterranean environment through various thermal indices. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 216:114831. [PMID: 36402186 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114831] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2022] [Revised: 10/31/2022] [Accepted: 11/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
During the last decades the effects of thermal stress on public health have been a great concern worldwide. Thermal stress is determined by air temperature in combination with other meteorological parameters, such as relative humidity and wind speed. The present study is focused on the Mediterranean city of Thessaloniki, Greece and it aims to explore the association between thermal stress and mortality from cardiovascular diseases, using both air temperature and other thermal indices as indicators. For that, an over-dispersed Poisson regression function was used, in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, in order to capture the delayed and nonlinear effects of temperature. Our results revealed a reverse J-shaped exposure-response curve for the total population and females and a U-shaped association for males. In all cases examined, the minimum mortality temperature was identified around the 80th percentile of each distribution. It is noteworthy that despite the fact that the highest risks of cardiovascular mortality were estimated for exposure to extreme temperatures, moderate temperatures were found to cause the highest burden of mortality. On the whole, our estimations demonstrated that the population in Thessaloniki is more susceptible to cold effects and in regard with gender, females seem to be more vulnerable to ambient thermal conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- K Psistaki
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, Orestiada, 68200, Greece
| | - I M Dokas
- Department of Civil Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, Greece
| | - A K Paschalidou
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, Orestiada, 68200, Greece.
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Psistaki K, Dokas IM, Paschalidou AK. The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Cardiorespiratory Mortality in Northern Greece. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 20:555. [PMID: 36612877 PMCID: PMC9819162 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20010555] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2022] [Revised: 12/22/2022] [Accepted: 12/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
It is well-established that exposure to non-optimum temperatures adversely affects public health, with the negative impact varying with latitude, as well as various climatic and population characteristics. This work aims to assess the relationship between ambient temperature and mortality from cardiorespiratory diseases in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, in Northern Greece. For this, a standard time-series over-dispersed Poisson regression was fit, along with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM), using a maximum lag of 21 days, to capture the non-linear and delayed temperature-related effects. A U-shaped relationship was found between temperature and cardiorespiratory mortality for the overall population and various subgroups and the minimum mortality temperature was observed around the 65th percentile of the temperature distribution. Exposure to extremely high temperatures was found to put the highest risk of cardiorespiratory mortality in all cases, except for females which were found to be more sensitive to extreme cold. It is remarkable that the highest burden of temperature-related mortality was attributed to moderate temperatures and primarily to moderate cold. The elderly were found to be particularly susceptible to both cold and hot thermal stress. These results provide new evidence on the health response of the population to low and high temperatures and could be useful to local authorities and policy-makers for developing interventions and prevention strategies for reducing the adverse impact of ambient temperature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kyriaki Psistaki
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, 68200 Orestiada, Greece
| | - Ioannis M. Dokas
- Department of Civil Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, 67100 Xanthi, Greece
| | - Anastasia K. Paschalidou
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, 68200 Orestiada, Greece
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Abstract
Rationale: Avoiding excess health damages attributable to climate change is a primary motivator for policy interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the health benefits of climate mitigation, as included in the policy assessment process, have been estimated without much input from health experts. Objectives: In accordance with recommendations from the National Academies in a 2017 report on approaches to update the social cost of greenhouse gases (SC-GHG), an expert panel of 26 health researchers and climate economists gathered for a virtual technical workshop in May 2021 to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis and recommend improvements to the estimation of health impacts in economic-climate models. Methods: Regionally resolved effect estimates of unit increases in temperature on net all-cause mortality risk were generated through random-effects pooling of studies identified through a systematic review. Results: Effect estimates and associated uncertainties varied by global region, but net increases in mortality risk associated with increased average annual temperatures (ranging from 0.1% to 1.1% per 1°C) were estimated for all global regions. Key recommendations for the development and utilization of health damage modules were provided by the expert panel and included the following: not relying on individual methodologies in estimating health damages; incorporating a broader range of cause-specific mortality impacts; improving the climate parameters available in economic models; accounting for socioeconomic trajectories and adaptation factors when estimating health damages; and carefully considering how air pollution impacts should be incorporated in economic-climate models. Conclusions: This work provides an example of how subject-matter experts can work alongside climate economists in making continued improvements to SC-GHG estimates.
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The effect of ambient temperature on in-hospital mortality: a study in Nanjing, China. Sci Rep 2022; 12:6304. [PMID: 35428808 PMCID: PMC9012784 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-10395-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2021] [Accepted: 03/31/2022] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
To reduce the inpatient mortality and improve the quality of hospital management, we explore the relationship between temperatures and in-hospital mortality in a large sample across 10 years in Nanjing, Jiangsu. We collected 10 years’ data on patient deaths from a large research hospital. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to find the association between daily mean temperatures and in-hospital mortality. A total of 6160 in-hospital deaths were documented. Overall, peak RR appeared at 8 °C, with the range of 1 to 20 °C having a significantly high mortality risk. In the elderly (age ≥ 65 years), peak RR appeared at 5 °C, with range − 3 to 21 °C having a significantly high mortality risk. In males, peak RR appeared at 8 °C, with the range 0 to 24 °C having a significantly high mortality risk. Moderate cold (define as 2.5th percentile of daily mean temperatures to the MT), not extreme temperatures (≤ 2.5th percentile or ≥ 97.5th percentile of daily mean temperatures), increased the risk of death in hospital patients, especially in elderly and male in-hospital patients.
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Choi HM, Chen C, Son JY, Bell ML. Temperature-mortality relationship in North Carolina, USA: Regional and urban-rural differences. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 787:147672. [PMID: 34000533 PMCID: PMC8214419 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147672] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2020] [Revised: 05/06/2021] [Accepted: 05/06/2021] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Health disparities exist between urban and rural populations, yet research on rural-urban disparities in temperature-mortality relationships is limited. As inequality in the United States increases, understanding urban-rural and regional differences in the temperature-mortality association is crucial. OBJECTIVE We examined regional and urban-rural differences of the temperature-mortality association in North Carolina (NC), USA, and investigated potential effect modifiers. METHODS We applied time-series models allowing nonlinear temperature-mortality associations for 17 years (2000-2016) to generate heat and cold county-specific estimates. We used second-stage analysis to quantify the overall effects. We also explored potential effect modifiers (e.g. social associations, greenness) using stratified analysis. The analysis considered relative effects (comparing risks at 99th to 90th temperature percentiles based on county-specific temperature distributions for heat, and 1st to 10th percentiles for cold) and absolute effects (comparing risks at specific temperatures). RESULTS We found null effects for heat-related mortality (relative effect: 1.001 (95% CI: 0.995-1.007)). Overall cold-mortality risk for relative effects was 1.019 (1.015-1.023). All three regions had statistically significant cold-related mortality risks for relative and absolute effects (relative effect: 1.019 (1.010-1.027) for Coastal Plains, 1.021 (1.015-1.027) for Piedmont, 1.014 (1.006-1.023) for Mountains). The heat mortality risk was not statistically significant, whereas the cold mortality risk was statistically significant, showing higher cold-mortality risks in urban areas than rural areas (relative effect for heat: 1.006 (0.997-1.016) for urban, 1.002 (0.988-1.017) for rural areas; relative effect for cold: 1.023 (1.017-1.030) for urban, 1.012 (1.001-1.023) for rural areas). Findings are suggestive of higher relative cold risks in counties with the less social association, higher population density, less green-space, higher PM2.5, lower education level, higher residential segregation, higher income inequality, and higher income (e.g., Ratio of Relative Risks 1.72 (0.68, 4.35) comparing low to high education). CONCLUSION Results indicate cold-mortality risks in NC, with potential differences by regional, urban-rural areas, and community characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Chen Chen
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Ji-Young Son
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
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Petkova EP, Dimitrova LK, Sera F, Gasparrini A. Mortality attributable to heat and cold among the elderly in Sofia, Bulgaria. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2021; 65:865-872. [PMID: 33416949 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02064-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2020] [Revised: 12/04/2020] [Accepted: 12/10/2020] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Although a number of epidemiological studies have examined the effects of non-optimal temperatures on mortality in Europe, evidence about the mortality risks associated with exposures to hot and cold temperatures in Bulgaria is scarce. This study provides evidence about mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures in adults aged 65 and over in Sofia, Bulgaria, between 2000 and 2017. We quantified the relationship between the daily mean temperature and mortality in the total elderly adult population aged 65 and over, among males and females aged 65 and over, as well as individuals aged 65-84 and 85 years or older. We used a distributed lag non-linear model with a 25-day lag to fully capture the effects of both cold and hot temperatures and calculated the fractions of mortality attributable to mild and extreme hot and cold temperatures. Cold temperatures had a greater impact on mortality than hot temperatures during the studied period. Most of the temperature-attributable mortality was due to moderate cold, followed by moderate heat, extreme cold, and extreme heat. The total mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures was greater among females compared to males and among individuals aged 85 and over compared to those aged 65 to 84. The findings of this study can serve as a foundation for future research and policy development aimed at characterizing and reducing the risks from temperature exposures among vulnerable populations in the country, climate adaptation planning and improved public health preparedness, and response to non-optimal temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elisaveta P Petkova
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
| | - Lyudmila K Dimitrova
- Department of Computer and Information Technology, Prof. Asen Zlatarov University, Burgas, Bulgaria
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1H 9SH, UK
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1H 9SH, UK
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Zhang W, Du G, Xiong L, Liu T, Zheng Z, Yuan Q, Yang J, Wu Y, Zhu R, Hu G. Extreme temperatures and cardiovascular mortality: assessing effect modification by subgroups in Ganzhou, China. Glob Health Action 2021; 14:1965305. [PMID: 34482804 PMCID: PMC8425637 DOI: 10.1080/16549716.2021.1965305] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Many people die from cardiovascular diseases each year, and extreme temperatures are regarded as a risk factor for cardiovascular deaths. However, the relationship between temperature and cardiovascular deaths varies in different regions because of population density, demographic inequality, and economic situation, and the evidence in Ganzhou, China is limited and inconclusive. Objective This study aimed to assess extreme temperature-related cardiovascular mortality and identify the potential vulnerable people. Methods After controlling other meteorological measures, air pollution, seasonality, relative humidity, day of the week, and public holidays, we examined temperature-related cardiovascular mortality along 21 lag days by Poisson in Ganzhou, China. Results A J-shaped relationship was observed between mean temperature and cardiovascular mortality. Extremely low temperatures substantially increased the relative risks (RR) of cardiovascular mortality. The effect of cold temperature was delayed by 2–6 days and persisted for 4–10 days. However, the risk of cardiovascular mortality related to extremely high temperatures was not significant (p > 0.05). Subgroup analysis indicated that extremely low temperatures had a stronger association with cardiovascular mortality in people with cerebrovascular diseases (RR: 1.282, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.020–1.611), males (RR: 1.492, 95% CI: 1.175–1.896), married people (RR: 1.590, 95% CI: 1.224–2.064), and people above the age of 65 years (RR: 1.641, 95% CI: 1.106–2.434) than in people with ischemic heart disease, females, unmarried people, and the elderly (≥65 years old), respectively. Conclusions The type of cardiovascular disease, sex, age, and marital status modified the effects of extremely low temperatures on the risk of cardiovascular mortality. These findings may help local governments to establish warning systems and precautionary measures to reduce temperature-related cardiovascular mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases of Ministry of Education, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, China.,Department of Occupational Health and Occupational Medicine, School of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, China
| | - Gang Du
- Ganzhou Center For Disease Control And Prevention, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, China
| | - Liang Xiong
- Key Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases of Ministry of Education, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, China.,Department of Occupational Health and Occupational Medicine, School of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, China
| | - Tingting Liu
- Key Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases of Ministry of Education, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, China.,Department of Occupational Health and Occupational Medicine, School of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, China
| | - Zuobing Zheng
- Key Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases of Ministry of Education, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, China.,Department of Occupational Health and Occupational Medicine, School of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, China
| | - Qiong Yuan
- Key Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases of Ministry of Education, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, China.,Department of Occupational Health and Occupational Medicine, School of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, China
| | - Jiahui Yang
- Key Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases of Ministry of Education, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, China.,Department of Occupational Health and Occupational Medicine, School of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, China
| | - Yangna Wu
- Key Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases of Ministry of Education, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, China.,Department of Occupational Health and Occupational Medicine, School of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, China
| | - Rongfei Zhu
- Key Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases of Ministry of Education, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, China.,Department of Occupational Health and Occupational Medicine, School of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, China
| | - Gonghua Hu
- Key Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Diseases of Ministry of Education, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, China.,Department of Occupational Health and Occupational Medicine, School of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou, Jiangxi, China
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12
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Zhao Y, Gongsang Q, Ji J, Li J, Qi F, Li J, Qiangba G, Danzeng W, Chen F, Zhou H, Yin J, Pei N, Xie J, Cai H, Pang H, Li J, Chen W, Li B. Characterizing dynamic changes of plasma cell-free Echinococcus granulosus DNA before and after cystic echinococcosis treatment initiation. Genomics 2020; 113:576-582. [PMID: 33383141 DOI: 10.1016/j.ygeno.2020.12.035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2020] [Revised: 12/16/2020] [Accepted: 12/24/2020] [Indexed: 01/10/2023]
Abstract
Over one million people are living with cystic echinococcosis (CE) and alveolar echinococcosis (AE). For CE, long-term albendazole treatment is often needed, which requires regular follow-up. Follow-up is mainly through imaging which is insensitive to subtle changes and subjective to experience. We investigated the changes of Echinococcus granulosus (Eg) cell-free DNA (cfDNA) in plasma of CE patients before and after albendazole treatment to evaluate its potential as an objective marker for treatment follow-up. Plasma samples of nine CE patients were collected before and after treatment. We identified Eg cfDNA from every sample through high-throughput sequencing. Eg cfDNA concentration and fragment length increased significantly after the treatment period. Ultrasound examination before and after the treatment initiation reflected the drug effects to a certain extent, as the cyst size of four patients reduced. Our findings indicated that Eg cfDNA from plasma could be a potential marker in the monitoring of CE treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanping Zhao
- BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China; Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Unknown Pathogen Identification, BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China
| | - Quzhen Gongsang
- Tibet Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lhasa 850010, China; NHC Key Laboratory of Echinococcosis Prevention and Control, Lhasa 850010, China
| | - Jingkai Ji
- BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China; Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Unknown Pathogen Identification, BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China
| | - Junhua Li
- BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China; Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Unknown Pathogen Identification, BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China; School of Biology and Biological Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China
| | - Fahai Qi
- Seni District Health Commission, Naqu 852000, China
| | - Jiandong Li
- BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China; Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Unknown Pathogen Identification, BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China
| | - Gezhen Qiangba
- BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China; Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Unknown Pathogen Identification, BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China
| | - Wangmu Danzeng
- BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China; BGI-Tibet, BGI-Shenzhen, Lhasa 850000, China
| | - Fang Chen
- BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China; MGI, BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China
| | - Hongcheng Zhou
- BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China; China National GeneBank, BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China
| | - Jiefang Yin
- BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China; Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Unknown Pathogen Identification, BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China
| | - Na Pei
- BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China; Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Unknown Pathogen Identification, BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China
| | - Jiandan Xie
- BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China; Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Unknown Pathogen Identification, BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China
| | - Huimin Cai
- BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China; Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Unknown Pathogen Identification, BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen 518083, China
| | - Huasheng Pang
- Tibet Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lhasa 850010, China; NHC Key Laboratory of Echinococcosis Prevention and Control, Lhasa 850010, China.
| | - Jingzhong Li
- Tibet Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lhasa 850010, China; NHC Key Laboratory of Echinococcosis Prevention and Control, Lhasa 850010, China.
| | - Weijun Chen
- BGI Education Center, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518083, China; BGI PathoGenesis Pharmaceutical Technology, BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen, China.
| | - Bin Li
- Second People's Hospital of Tibet Autonomous Region, Lhasa 850000, China.
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13
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Paudel U, Pant KP. Beyond Smoking: Environmental Determinants of Asthma Prevalence in Western Nepal. J Health Pollut 2020; 10:200310. [PMID: 32175181 PMCID: PMC7058133 DOI: 10.5696/2156-9614-10.25.200310] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2019] [Accepted: 12/31/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Asthma is widely prevalent in Nepal, but the causes are not well known aside from some general associations with ambient air pollution and microbial exposures. Information on the wide-ranging determinants of asthma prevalence among the population at risk can help policy makers to reduce risk. OBJECTIVE The present study is a preliminary investigation of the environmental, socioeconomic and behavioral determinants of asthma prevalence in western Nepal. METHODS A survey was conducted among 420 randomly selected households in western Nepal. A cross-sectional analytical study design was employed with the primary data using econometric tools of probit and logistic regression. RESULTS Environmental variables such as extreme cold winter, deteriorating river water quality and air pollution were associated with an increase in asthma prevalence. However, individual or household characteristics such as advancing age of household head, use of pesticides in the home for the control of pests, piped drinking water with old pipes and lack of participation in awareness programs were associated with an increase in asthma prevalence. DISCUSSION Among environmental factors, decreasing river water quality, increasing air pollution, and extremely cold winters are more likely to contribute to asthma prevalence. In light of the effects of environmental factors on the prevalence of asthma in Nepal, the high public and private costs of asthma could further impoverish the rural poor. CONCLUSIONS Environmental health policy makers should design adaptation strategies along with additional community programs addressing asthma-instigating factors. Programs to reduce environmental pollution can reduce morbidity due to asthma. PARTICIPANT CONSENT Obtained. ETHICS APPROVAL This study was approved by the Ethical Committee of the Nepal Health Research Council. COMPETING INTERESTS The authors declare no competing financial interests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Uttam Paudel
- Environmental Health Economist, Tribhuvan University, Nepal
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14
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Liu J, Ma Y, Wang Y, Li S, Liu S, He X, Li L, Guo L, Niu J, Luo B, Zhang K. The Impact of Cold and Heat on Years of Life Lost in a Northwestern Chinese City with Temperate Continental Climate. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16193529. [PMID: 31547211 PMCID: PMC6801473 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16193529] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2019] [Revised: 09/06/2019] [Accepted: 09/13/2019] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Cold spells and heat waves in a changing climate are well known as great public-health concerns due to their adverse effects on human health. However, very few studies have quantified health impacts of heat and cold in the region of Northwestern China. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the effects of cold and heat on years of life lost (YLL) in Lanzhou, a city with temperate continental climate. We compiled a daily dataset including deaths, weather variables, and air pollutants in Lanzhou, China, from 2014–2017. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate single-day and cumulative effects of heat and cold on daily YLL. Results indicated that both cold and heat were associated with increased YLL for registered residents in Lanzhou. Estimated heat effects appeared immediately in the first two days, while estimated cold effects lasted over a longer period (up to 30 days). Cold significantly increased the YLL of all residents except for males and those with respiratory diseases (≥65 years). Our results showed that both heat and cold had more pronounced effects on cardiovascular diseases compared to respiratory diseases. Males might be more vulnerable to heat, while females might suffer more YLL from cold. The effects of cold or heat on the elderly might appear earlier and last longer than those for other age groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiangtao Liu
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Yueling Ma
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Yuhong Wang
- Lanzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Sheng Li
- Lanzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Shuyu Liu
- Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Xiaotao He
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Lanyu Li
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Lei Guo
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Jingping Niu
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Bin Luo
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
- Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai 200030, China.
| | - Kai Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
- Southwest Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
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15
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Khan MD, Thi Vu HH, Lai QT, Ahn JW. Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:E2799. [PMID: 31390751 PMCID: PMC6696070 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16152799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2019] [Revised: 07/31/2019] [Accepted: 08/01/2019] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
For decades, researchers have debated whether climate change has an adverse impact on diseases, especially infectious diseases. They have identified a strong relationship between climate variables and vector's growth, mortality rate, reproduction, and spatiotemporal distribution. Epidemiological data further indicates the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases post every single extreme weather event. Based on studies conducted mostly between 1990-2018, three aspects that resemble the impact of climate change impact on diseases are: (a) emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases, (b) impact of extreme weather events, and (c) social upliftment with education and adaptation. This review mainly examines and discusses the impact of climate change based on scientific evidences in published literature. Humans are highly vulnerable to diseases and other post-catastrophic effects of extreme events, as evidenced in literature. It is high time that human beings understand the adverse impacts of climate change and take proper and sustainable control measures. There is also the important requirement for allocation of effective technologies, maintenance of healthy lifestyles, and public education.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohd Danish Khan
- Resources Recycling Department, University of Science and Technology, (UST), 217, Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34113, Korea
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea
| | - Hong Ha Thi Vu
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea
| | - Quang Tuan Lai
- Resources Recycling Department, University of Science and Technology, (UST), 217, Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34113, Korea
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea
| | - Ji Whan Ahn
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea.
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16
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Chan EYY, Ho JY, Hung HHY, Liu S, Lam HCY. Health impact of climate change in cities of middle-income countries: the case of China. Br Med Bull 2019; 130:5-24. [PMID: 31070715 PMCID: PMC6587073 DOI: 10.1093/bmb/ldz011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2018] [Revised: 01/31/2019] [Accepted: 04/23/2019] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND This review examines the human health impact of climate change in China. Through reviewing available research findings under four major climate change phenomena, namely extreme temperature, altered rainfall pattern, rise of sea level and extreme weather events, relevant implications for other middle-income population with similar contexts will be synthesized. SOURCES OF DATA Sources of data included bilingual peer-reviewed articles published between 2000 and 2018 in PubMed, Google Scholar and China Academic Journals Full-text Database. AREAS OF AGREEMENT The impact of temperature on mortality outcomes was the most extensively studied, with the strongest cause-specific mortality risks between temperature and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. The geographical focuses of the studies indicated variations in health risks and impacts of different climate change phenomena across the country. AREAS OF CONTROVERSY While rainfall-related studies predominantly focus on its impact on infectious and vector-borne diseases, consistent associations were not often found. GROWING POINTS Mental health outcomes of climate change had been gaining increasing attention, particularly in the context of extreme weather events. The number of projection studies on the long-term impact had been growing. AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH The lack of studies on the health implications of rising sea levels and on comorbidity and injury outcomes warrants immediate attention. Evidence is needed to understand health impacts on vulnerable populations living in growing urbanized cities and urban enclaves, in particular migrant workers. Location-specific climate-health outcome thresholds (such as temperature-mortality threshold) will be needed to support evidence-based clinical management plans and health impact mitigation strategies to protect vulnerable communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily Y Y Chan
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.,Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.,Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.,François-Xavier Bagnoud Center for Health & Human Rights, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Janice Y Ho
- Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Heidi H Y Hung
- Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Sida Liu
- Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Holly C Y Lam
- Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response (CCOUC), Division of Global Health and Humanitarian Medicine, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
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17
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Luo Q, Li S, Guo Y, Han X, Jaakkola JJK. A systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between daily mean temperature and mortality in China. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2019; 173:281-299. [PMID: 30928859 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.03.044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2018] [Accepted: 03/17/2019] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE We summarized the evidence on the effects of heat and cold exposures on mortality in China. We included studies published on this topic in both Chinese and English, thereby filling a gap in knowledge using data from a country that consists of one-fifth of the world's population. METHODS We conducted a systematic search of peer-reviewed studies on the association between daily mean temperature and mortality published from 2001 up to July 2018. We searched one Chinese database (China National Knowledge infrastructure, http://www.cnki.net) and three English databases (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science). We converted the effect estimates of heat/cold to rate ratios (RRs) associated with 1° increase/decrease beyond the heat/cold reference temperatures. For studies that provided lag-specific estimates, we used both the maximum and minimum of RR estimates. We calculated summary effect estimates for all-cause and cause-specific mortalities, as well as RRs stratified by sex, age, and socioeconomic status. We also investigated patterns of heat and cold adaptation at different latitudes, and at different reference temperatures. RESULTS In total, 45 articles were included in this systematic review. For every 1° temperature increase/decrease beyond reference points, the rate of non-accidental mortality increased by 2% (RR, 1.02; 95% confidence interval (95% CI [1.01-1.02]) for heat and 4% (RR, 1.04; 95% CI [1.03-1.04]) for cold, respectively; the rate of cardiovascular mortality increased 3% (RR, 1.03; 95% CI [1.03-1.04]) for heat and 6% (RR, 1.06; 95% CI [1.04-1.07]) for cold; the rate of respiratory mortality increased 2% (RR, 1.02; 95% CI [1.01-1.03]) for heat and 2% (RR, 1.02; 95% CI [1.00-1.04]) for cold; the rate of cerebrovascular mortality increased 2% (RR, 1.02; 95% CI [1.02-1.03]) for heat and 3% (RR, 1.03; 95% CI [1.02-1.04]) for cold. We identified a variation in optimal temperature range related to latitude of the residential area, and differences in people's capability to adapt to heat versus cold. CONCLUSION We found consistent evidence of the association between temperature and mortality, as well as evidence of patterns in human adaptation, and we discussed the implications of our findings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qianlai Luo
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland.
| | - Shanshan Li
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Australia
| | - Yuming Guo
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Australia
| | - Xuemei Han
- NatureServe, 4600 North Fairfax Drive, Arlington, Virginia, 22203, USA
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
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18
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Jiao A, Yu C, Xiang Q, Zhang F, Chen D, Zhang L, Hu K, Zhang L, Zhang Y. Impact of summer heat on mortality and years of life lost: Application of a novel indicator of daily excess hourly heat. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2019; 172:596-603. [PMID: 30875513 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.01.056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2018] [Revised: 01/30/2019] [Accepted: 01/31/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies have widely assessed heat-mortality relationships across global regions, while the epidemiological evidence regarding the heat effect on years of life lost (YLL) is relatively sparse. Current investigations using daily mean data cannot take hourly temperature variation into consideration and may underestimate heat effects. We developed a novel indicator, daily excess hourly heat (DEHH), to precisely evaluate the potential heat effects on mortality and YLL. METHODS Hourly data on temperature and daily information, including concentrations of air pollutants, relative humidity, and records of all registered deaths were obtained in Wuhan, China during the warm seasons (May-September) of 2009-2012. DEHH, developed in this study, is defined as daily total hourly temperatures that exceed a specific heat threshold. By performing time series regression analyses, we assessed the changes in daily mortality and YLL per interquartile range (IQR) increase in DEHH across different lag days. RESULTS The heat threshold evaluated by the Akaike Information Criterion for DEHH calculation is 30 °C (92th percentile of whole-year mean temperature distribution). Daily average DEHH was 13.9 °C, with an IQR of 19.9 °C. Linear exposure-response curves were found between DEHH and two health outcomes. Generally, heat effects lasted for 2-3 days and DEHH at lag 0-1 was most strongly associated with increased mortality and YLL. The effects were especially remarkable for stroke and ischemic heart disease mortality. Most intense effect on YLL was found in non-accidental deaths (20.11, 95% confidence interval: 8.90-31.33) at lag 0-1. More DEHH-related mortality and YLL from cardiovascular deaths were observed among males. People aged 0-74 years and males suffered more from YLL burden due to high temperatures. CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrated that DEHH may be an alternative indicator to precisely measure heat effects on daily mortality and YLL. Further DEHH-based evidence from large scale investigations is needed so as to better understand heat-associated health burden and improve public response to extremely high temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anqi Jiao
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China; Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
| | - Qianqian Xiang
- Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, China
| | - Faxue Zhang
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
| | - Dieyi Chen
- Department of Global Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
| | - Lan Zhang
- Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, China
| | - Kejia Hu
- Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan 316021, China
| | - Ling Zhang
- Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
| | - Yunquan Zhang
- Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China; Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China.
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19
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Green H, Bailey J, Schwarz L, Vanos J, Ebi K, Benmarhnia T. Impact of heat on mortality and morbidity in low and middle income countries: A review of the epidemiological evidence and considerations for future research. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2019; 171:80-91. [PMID: 30660921 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.01.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 75] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2018] [Revised: 01/04/2019] [Accepted: 01/04/2019] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Heat waves and high air temperature are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. However, the majority of research conducted on this topic is focused on high income areas of the world. Although heat waves have the most severe impacts on vulnerable populations, relatively few studies have studied their impacts in low and middle income countries (LMICs). The aim of this paper is to review the existing evidence in the literature on the impact of heat on human health in LMICs. We identified peer-reviewed epidemiologic studies published in English between January 1980 and August 2018 investigating potential associations between high ambient temperature or heat waves and mortality or morbidity. We selected studies according to the following criteria: quantitative studies that used primary and/or secondary data and report effect estimates where ambient temperature or heat waves are the main exposure of interest in relation to human morbidity or mortality within LMICs. Of the total 146 studies selected, eighty-two were conducted in China, nine in other countries of East Asia and the Pacific, twelve in South Asia, ten in Sub-Saharan Africa, eight in the Middle East and North Africa, and seven in each of Latin America and Europe. The majority of studies (92.9%) found positive associations between heat and human morbidity/mortality. Additionally, while outcome variables and study design differed greatly, most utilized a time-series study design and examined overall heath related morbidity/mortality impacts in an entire population, although it is notable that the selected studies generally found that the elderly, women, and individuals within the low socioeconomic brackets were the most vulnerable to the effects of high temperature. By highlighting the existing evidence on the impact of extreme heat on health in LMICs, we hope to determine data needs and help direct future studies in addressing this knowledge gap. The focus on LMICs is justified by the lack of studies and data studying the health burden of higher temperatures in these regions even though LMICs have a lower capacity to adapt to high temperatures and thus an increased risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hunter Green
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, 92093 CA, USA
| | - Jennifer Bailey
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Lara Schwarz
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, 92093 CA, USA; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Jennifer Vanos
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, 92093 CA, USA; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Kristie Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Tarik Benmarhnia
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, 92093 CA, USA; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA.
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Yin Q, Wang J, Su J, Wei Z. A new method to estimate the temperature-CVD mortality relationship. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2019; 26:8895-8901. [PMID: 30715716 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-019-04247-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2018] [Accepted: 01/14/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Few detailed, individual-focused studies have researched the added effect of temperature on cardiovascular disease (CVD), particularly in China. Moreover, no prior studies have explored the exposure-response relationship among all populations and different sub-sociodemographic groups. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to evaluate the adverse health effects of temperature on CVD mortality for all populations and different sub-sociodemographic groups (by age, sex, educational level, living arrangement, and occupation) in Beijing. Based on the exposure-response relationships, firstly, we proposed a new model (COCKTAIL, Code Of Climate Key To An Ill) for revealing the split-and-merge relationships of the temperature-CVD mortality curve. This method could be used to apply the CVD deaths in a studied area to forecast the exposure-response relationships in the same area in the future. Secondly, this is the most detailed study to analyze the relationship between temperature and CVD mortality for different subgroups among the existing researches for developed and developing countries. We found that the cold temperature (at - 14 °C) was the risk factor for people with low socioeconomic status, especially for single people (including unmarried, divorced, and widowed), for indoor workers, and for people with low education, compared with the minimum mortality temperature, with a cumulative increase of 3.9 (80%CI, 2.9-5.4), 3.8 (80%CI, 2.8-5.1), and 4.5 (80%CI, 3.1-6.3) times respectively. Meanwhile, the hot temperature (at 35 °C) was the risk factor for CVD death, with a cumulative increase of 2.6 (80%CI, 2.0-3.4) for females, and 3.1 (80%CI, 2.4-4.2) for single people. The varying CVD vulnerability in terms of CVD mortality among various groups may assist governments in preparing health resources and taking measures to prevent or reduce temperature-related deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qian Yin
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Nature Resources Research, A11, Datun Road, Beijing, China
| | - Jinfeng Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Nature Resources Research, A11, Datun Road, Beijing, China.
- The University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
| | - Jianting Su
- Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China
- Beijing Research Center for Preventive Medicine, Beijing, China
| | - Zaihua Wei
- Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China
- Beijing Research Center for Preventive Medicine, Beijing, China
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Odame EA, Li Y, Zheng S, Vaidyanathan A, Silver K. Assessing Heat-Related Mortality Risks among Rural Populations: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Epidemiological Evidence. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2018; 15:ijerph15081597. [PMID: 30060529 PMCID: PMC6122068 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15081597] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2018] [Revised: 07/24/2018] [Accepted: 07/25/2018] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Most epidemiological studies of high temperature effects on mortality have focused on urban settings, while heat-related health risks in rural areas remain underexplored. To date there has been no meta-analysis of epidemiologic literature concerning heat-related mortality in rural settings. This study aims to systematically review the current literature for assessing heat-related mortality risk among rural populations. We conducted a comprehensive literature search using PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar to identify articles published up to April 2018. Key selection criteria included study location, health endpoints, and study design. Fourteen studies conducted in rural areas in seven countries on four continents met the selection criteria, and eleven were included in the meta-analysis. Using the random effects model, the pooled estimates of relative risks (RRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were 1.030 (95% CI: 1.013, 1.048) and 1.111 (95% CI: 1.045, 1.181) per 1 °C increase in daily mean temperature, respectively. We found excess risks in rural settings not to be smaller than risks in urban settings. Our results suggest that rural populations, like urban populations, are also vulnerable to heat-related mortality. Further evaluation of heat-related mortality among rural populations is warranted to develop public health interventions in rural communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emmanuel A Odame
- Department of Environmental Health, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN 37614, USA.
| | - Ying Li
- Department of Environmental Health, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN 37614, USA.
| | - Shimin Zheng
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN 37614, USA.
| | - Ambarish Vaidyanathan
- National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30341, USA.
| | - Ken Silver
- Department of Environmental Health, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN 37614, USA.
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Li Y, Ren T, Kinney PL, Joyner A, Zhang W. Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2018; 163:171-185. [PMID: 29448153 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2018.01.047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2017] [Revised: 01/10/2018] [Accepted: 01/31/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Global climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and has the potential to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat because of high concentrations of susceptible people. As the world's largest developing country, China has experienced noticeable changes in climate, partially evidenced by frequent occurrence of extreme heat in urban areas, which could expose millions of residents to summer heat stress that may result in increased health risk, including mortality. While there is a growing literature on future impacts of extreme temperatures on public health, projecting changes in future health outcomes associated with climate warming remains challenging and underexplored, particularly in developing countries. This is an exploratory study aimed at projecting future heat-related mortality risk in major urban areas in China. We focus on the 51 largest Chinese cities that include about one third of the total population in China, and project the potential changes in heat-related mortality based on 19 different global-scale climate models and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). City-specific risk estimates for high temperature and all-cause mortality were used to estimate annual heat-related mortality over two future twenty-year time periods. We estimated that for the 20-year period in Mid-21st century (2041-2060) relative to 1970-2000, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in the 51 cities to be approximately 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300-43,500), 31,700 (95% CI: 26,200-36,600) and 25,800 (95% CI: 21,300-29,800) deaths per year under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Slowing climate change through the most stringent emission control scenario RCP2.6, relative to RCP8.5, was estimated to avoid 12,900 (95% CI: 10,800-14,800) deaths per year in the 51 cities in the 2050s, and 35,100 (95% CI: 29,200-40,100) deaths per year in the 2070s. The highest mortality risk is primarily in cities located in the North, East and Central regions of China. Population adaptation to heat is likely to reduce excess heat mortality, but the extent of adaptation is still unclear. Future heat mortality risk attributable to exposure to elevated warm season temperature is likely to be considerable in China's urban centers, with substantial geographic variations. Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk and produce substantial public health benefits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying Li
- Department of Environmental Health, College of Public Health, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN 37614, USA
| | - Ting Ren
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
| | - Patrick L Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02118, USA
| | - Andrew Joyner
- Department of Geosciences, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN 37614, USA
| | - Wei Zhang
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China.
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Babalola O, Razzaque A, Bishai D. Temperature extremes and infant mortality in Bangladesh: Hotter months, lower mortality. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0189252. [PMID: 29304145 PMCID: PMC5755750 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0189252] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2017] [Accepted: 11/22/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Our study aims to obtain estimates of the size effects of temperature extremes on infant mortality in Bangladesh using monthly time series data. Methods Data on temperature, child and infant mortality were obtained for Matlab district of rural Bangladesh for January 1982 to December 2008 encompassing 49,426 infant deaths. To investigate the relationship between mortality and temperature, we adopted a regression with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) errors model of seasonally adjusted temperature and mortality data. The relationship between monthly mean and maximum temperature on infant mortality was tested at 0 and 1 month lags respectively. Furthermore, our analysis was stratified to determine if the results differed by gender (boys versus girls) and by age (neonates (≤ 30 days) versus post neonates (>30days and <153days)). Dickey Fuller tests were performed to test for stationarity, and since the time series were non-stationary, we conducted the regression analysis based on the first differences of mortality and temperature. Results Hotter months were associated with lower infant mortality in Bangladesh. Each degree Celsius increase in mean monthly temperature reduced monthly mortality by 3.672 (SE 1.544, p<0.05) points. A one degree increase in mean monthly temperature one month prior reduced mortality by 0.767 (SE 0.439, p<0.1) for boys and by -0.0764 (SE 0.366, NS) for girls. Beneficial effects of maximum monthly temperature were on the order of 0.623 to -0.712 and statistically significant for girls and boys respectively. Effect sizes of mean monthly temperature were larger for neonates at 1.126 (SE 0.499, p<0.05) than for post-neonates at 0.880 (SE 0.310, p<0.05) reductions in mortality per degree. Conclusion There is no evidence that infant survival is adversely affected by monthly temperature extremes in Bangladesh. This may reflect a more heightened sensitivity of infants to hypothermia than hyperthermia in this environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olufemi Babalola
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Abdur Razzaque
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh (ICDDR,B), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - David Bishai
- Department of Population, Family, and Reproductive Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States of America
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Moghadamnia MT, Ardalan A, Mesdaghinia A, Keshtkar A, Naddafi K, Yekaninejad MS. Ambient temperature and cardiovascular mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis. PeerJ 2017; 5:e3574. [PMID: 28791197 PMCID: PMC5546177 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.3574] [Citation(s) in RCA: 99] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2017] [Accepted: 06/23/2017] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Our study aims at identifying and quantifying the relationship between the cold and heat exposure and the risk of cardiovascular mortality through a systematic review and meta-analysis. MATERIAL AND METHODS A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline. Peer-reviewed studies about the temperature and cardiovascular mortality were retrieved in the MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Scopus databases from January 2000 up to the end of 2015. The pooled effect sizes of short-term effect were calculated for the heat exposure and cold exposure separately. Also, we assessed the dose-response relationship of temperature-cardiovascular mortality by a change in units of latitudes, longitude, lag days and annual mean temperature by meta-regression. RESULT After screening the titles, abstracts and full texts, a total of 26 articles were included in the meta-analysis. The risk of cardiovascular mortality increased by 5% (RR, 1.055; 95% CI [1.050-1.060]) for the cold exposure and 1.3% (RR, 1.013; 95% CI [1.011-1.015]) for the heat exposure. The short-term effects of cold and heat exposure on the risk of cardiovascular mortality in males were 3.8% (RR, 1.038; 95% CI [1.034-1.043]) and 1.1%( RR, 1.011; 95% CI [1.009-1.013]) respectively. Moreover, the effects of cold and heat exposure on risk of cardiovascular mortality in females were 4.1% (RR, 1.041; 95% CI [1.037-1.045]) and 1.4% (RR, 1.014; 95% CI [1.011-1.017]) respectively. In the elderly, it was at an 8.1% increase and a 6% increase in the heat and cold exposure, respectively. The greatest risk of cardiovascular mortality in cold temperature was in the 14 lag days (RR, 1.09; 95% CI [1.07-1.010]) and in hot temperatures in the seven lag days (RR, 1.14; 95% CI [1.09-1.17]). The significant dose-response relationship of latitude and longitude in cold exposure with cardiovascular mortality was found. The results showed that the risk of cardiovascular mortality increased with each degree increased significantly in latitude and longitude in cold exposure (0.2%, 95% CI [0.006-0.035]) and (0.07%, 95% CI [0.0003-0.014]) respectively. The risk of cardiovascular mortality increased with each degree increase in latitude in heat exposure (0.07%, 95% CI [0.0008-0.124]). CONCLUSION Our findings indicate that the increase and decrease in ambient temperature had a relationship with the cardiovascular mortality. To prevent the temperature- related mortality, persons with cardiovascular disease and the elderly should be targeted. The review has been registered with PROSPERO (registration number CRD42016037673).
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad Taghi Moghadamnia
- Department of Disaster Public Health, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ali Ardalan
- Department of Disaster Public Health, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Harvard University, Cambridge, United States of America
| | - Alireza Mesdaghinia
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Abbas Keshtkar
- Department of Health Sciences Education Development, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Kazem Naddafi
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mir Saeed Yekaninejad
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
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Li J, Woodward A, Hou XY, Zhu T, Zhang J, Brown H, Yang J, Qin R, Gao J, Gu S, Li J, Xu L, Liu X, Liu Q. Modification of the effects of air pollutants on mortality by temperature: A systematic review and meta-analysis. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2017; 575:1556-1570. [PMID: 27780592 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.070] [Citation(s) in RCA: 92] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2016] [Revised: 09/04/2016] [Accepted: 10/10/2016] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Temperature extremes and air pollution both pose significant threats to human health, but it remains uncertain whether pollutants' effects on mortality are modified by temperature levels. In this review, we summarized epidemiologic evidence on the modification by temperature of the acute effects of air pollutants on non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality. The EMBASE, PubMed, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, and Elsevier Science Direct databases were used to identify papers published up to 2nd December 2014. Studies with appropriate design, exposures and outcome indicators, quantitative estimates and high/intermediate quality were included. Twenty-one studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 12 reported the effects of PM10 on mortality modified by temperature, 10 studied O3, and the rest examined NO2, SO2, PM2.5, PM10-2.5, CO and black smoke. We divided temperature into low, medium, and high categories as defined in each study. In high temperature days, a 10μg/m3 increment in PM10 concentration corresponded to pooled estimates of 0.78% (95% CI: 0.44%, 1.11%) and 1.28% (0.66%, 1.91%) increase in non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality, both statistically significantly higher than the estimates in medium temperature stratum. Pooled effects of O3 on non-accidental mortality on low and high temperature days were increases of 0.48% (0.28%, 0.69%) and 0.47% (0.32%, 0.63%) respectively, for 10μg/m3 increase in exposure, both significantly higher than the increase of 0.20% (0.07%, 0.34%) on medium temperature days. The effect of O3 on cardiovascular mortality was strongest on high temperature days with pooled estimate of 1.63% (1.14%, 2.13%). No significant interactions between SO2/NO2 and temperature were detected by meta-analysis. Other pollutants were not analyzed due to the lack of suitable studies. In summary, we observed interactions between high temperature and PM10 and O3 in the effects on non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality. Low temperature modified the effects of air pollutants but not in a consistent fashion: the effect of PM10 oncardiovascular mortality was diminished but the association between O3 and non-accidental mortality was strengthened.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jing Li
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China; Changping District Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102200, China.
| | - Alistair Woodward
- School of Population Health, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
| | - Xiang-Yu Hou
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
| | - Tong Zhu
- College of Environmental Science and Engineering Director, Centre for Environment and Health, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
| | - Jinliang Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China.
| | - Helen Brown
- Campden BRI (Chipping Campden) Limited - part of the Campden BRI group, Chipping Campden, Gloucestershire, UK.
| | - Jun Yang
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
| | - Rennie Qin
- School of Population Health, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
| | - Jinghong Gao
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
| | - Shaohua Gu
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
| | - Jing Li
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China.
| | - Lei Xu
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
| | - Xiaobo Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China; Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China.
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Ding Z, Li L, Wei R, Dong W, Guo P, Yang S, Liu J, Zhang Q. Association of cold temperature and mortality and effect modification in the subtropical plateau monsoon climate of Yuxi, China. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2016; 150:431-437. [PMID: 27376930 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2016.06.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2016] [Revised: 05/11/2016] [Accepted: 06/17/2016] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Consistent evidence has shown excess mortality associated with cold temperature, but some important details of the cold-mortality association (e.g. slope and threshold) have not been adequately investigated and few studies focused on the cold effect in high-altitude areas of developing countries. We attempted to quantify the cold effect on mortality, identify the details, and evaluate effect modification in the distinct subtropical plateau monsoon climate of Yuxi, a high plateau region in southwest China. METHODS From daily mortality and meteorological data during 2009-2014, we used a quasi-Poisson model combined with a "natural cubic spline-natural cubic spline" distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the temperature-mortality relationship and then a simpler "hockey-stick" model to investigate the cold effect and details. RESULTS Cold temperature was associated with increased mortality, and the relative risk of cold effect (1st relative to 10th temperature percentile) on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality for lag 0-21 days was 1.40 (95% confidence interval: 1.19-1.66), 1.61 (1.28-2.02), and 1.13 (0.78-1.64), respectively. A 1°C decrease below a cold threshold of 9.1°C (8th percentile) for lags 0-21 was associated with a 7.35% (3.75-11.09%) increase in non-accidental mortality. The cold-mortality association was not significantly affected by cause-specific mortality, gender, age, marital status, ethnicity, occupation, or previous history of hypertension. CONCLUSIONS There is an adverse impact of cold on mortality in Yuxi, China, and a temperature of 9.1°C is an important cut-off for cold-related mortality for residents.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zan Ding
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong 515041, China; Yuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuxi, Yunnan 653000, China
| | - Liujiu Li
- Yuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuxi, Yunnan 653000, China
| | - Ruqin Wei
- Yuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuxi, Yunnan 653000, China
| | - Wenya Dong
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong 515041, China
| | - Pi Guo
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong 515041, China
| | - Shaoyi Yang
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong 515041, China
| | - Ju Liu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong 515041, China
| | - Qingying Zhang
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong 515041, China.
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Dong W, Zeng Q, Ma Y, Li G, Pan X. Impact of Heat Wave Definitions on the Added Effect of Heat Waves on Cardiovascular Mortality in Beijing, China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2016; 13:ijerph13090933. [PMID: 27657103 PMCID: PMC5036765 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph13090933] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2016] [Revised: 08/30/2016] [Accepted: 09/04/2016] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Heat waves are associated with increased mortality, however, few studies have examined the added effect of heat waves. Moreover, there is limited evidence for the influence of different heat wave definitions (HWs) on cardiovascular mortality in Beijing, the capital of China. The aim of this study was to find the best HW definitions for cardiovascular mortality, and we examined the effect modification by an individual characteristic on cardiovascular mortality in Beijing, a typical northern city in China. We applied a Poisson generalized additive approach to estimate the differences in cardiovascular mortality during heat waves (using 12 HWs) compared with non-heat-wave days in Beijing from 2006 to 2009. We also validated the model fit by checking the residuals to ensure that the autocorrelation was successfully removed. In addition, the effect modifications by individual characteristics were explored in different HWs. Our results showed that the associations between heat waves and cardiovascular mortality differed from different HWs. HWs using the 93th percentile of the daily average temperature (27.7 °C) and a duration ≥5 days had the greatest risk, with an increase of 18% (95% confidence interval (CI): 6%, 31%) in the overall population, 24% (95% CI: 10%, 39%) in an older group (ages ≥65 years), and 22% (95% CI: 3%, 44%) in a female group. The added effect of heat waves was apparent after 5 consecutive heat wave days for the overall population and the older group. Females and the elderly were at higher risk than males and younger subjects (ages <65 years). Our findings suggest that heat wave definitions play a significant role in the relationship between heat wave and cardiovascular mortality. Using a suitable definition may have implications for designing local heat early warning systems and protecting the susceptible populations during heat waves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wentan Dong
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38, Xueyuan Rd, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China.
| | - Qiang Zeng
- Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China.
| | - Yue Ma
- Department of psychology, DePauw University, 408 South Locust Street, Greencastle, IN 46135, USA.
| | - Guoxing Li
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38, Xueyuan Rd, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China.
| | - Xiaochuan Pan
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38, Xueyuan Rd, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China.
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Dang TN, Seposo XT, Duc NHC, Thang TB, An DD, Hang LTM, Long TT, Loan BTH, Honda Y. Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in Hue, Viet Nam, 2009-2013. Glob Health Action 2016; 9:28738. [PMID: 26781954 PMCID: PMC4716554 DOI: 10.3402/gha.v9.28738] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2015] [Revised: 11/30/2015] [Accepted: 12/07/2015] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The relationship between temperature and mortality has been found to be U-, V-, or J-shaped in developed temperate countries; however, in developing tropical/subtropical cities, it remains unclear. Objectives Our goal was to investigate the relationship between temperature and mortality in Hue, a subtropical city in Viet Nam. Design We collected daily mortality data from the Vietnamese A6 mortality reporting system for 6,214 deceased persons between 2009 and 2013. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the temperature effects on all-cause and cause-specific mortality by assuming negative binomial distribution for count data. We developed an objective-oriented model selection with four steps following the Akaike information criterion (AIC) rule (i.e. a smaller AIC value indicates a better model). Results High temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with short lags, whereas low temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with long lags. The low temperatures increased risk in all-category mortality compared to high temperatures. We observed elevated temperature-mortality risk in vulnerable groups: elderly people (high temperature effect, relative risk [RR]=1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.11–1.83; low temperature effect, RR=2.0, 95% CI=1.13–3.52), females (low temperature effect, RR=2.19, 95% CI=1.14–4.21), people with respiratory disease (high temperature effect, RR=2.45, 95% CI=0.91–6.63), and those with cardiovascular disease (high temperature effect, RR=1.6, 95% CI=1.15–2.22; low temperature effect, RR=1.99, 95% CI=0.92–4.28). Conclusions In Hue, the temperature significantly increased the risk of mortality, especially in vulnerable groups (i.e. elderly, female, people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases). These findings may provide a foundation for developing adequate policies to address the effects of temperature on health in Hue City.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tran Ngoc Dang
- Department of Health Care Policy and Management, Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan.,Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam;
| | - Xerxes T Seposo
- Department of Health Care Policy and Management, Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Nguyen Huu Chau Duc
- Department of Global Health Promotion, Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan.,Department of Pediatrics, Hue University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Hue City, Viet Nam
| | - Tran Binh Thang
- Institute for Community Heath Research, Hue University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Hue City, Viet Nam
| | - Do Dang An
- Department of International Cooperation, Ministry of Health, Hanoi, Viet Nam
| | - Lai Thi Minh Hang
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Kagoshima, Kagoshima, Japan
| | - Tran Thanh Long
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Kagoshima, Kagoshima, Japan
| | - Bui Thi Hong Loan
- Department of Global Public Health, Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
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Bai L, Woodward A, Liu Q. County-level heat vulnerability of urban and rural residents in Tibet, China. Environ Health 2016; 15:3. [PMID: 26757705 PMCID: PMC4711018 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-015-0081-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2015] [Accepted: 12/07/2015] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tibet is especially vulnerable to climate change due to the relatively rapid rise of temperature over past decades. The effects on mortality and morbidity of extreme heat in Tibet have been examined in previous studies; no heat adaptation initiatives have yet been implemented. We estimated heat vulnerability of urban and rural populations in 73 Tibetan counties and identified potential areas for public health intervention and further research. METHODS According to data availability and vulnerability factors identified previously in Tibet and elsewhere, we selected 10 variables related to advanced age, low income, illiteracy, physical and mental disability, small living spaces and living alone. We separately created and mapped county-level cumulative heat vulnerability indices for urban and rural residents by summing up factor scores produced by a principal components analysis (PCA). RESULTS For both study populations, PCA yielded four factors with similar structure. The components for rural and urban residents explained 76.5 % and 77.7 % respectively of the variability in the original vulnerability variables. We found spatial variability of heat vulnerability across counties, with generally higher vulnerability in high-altitude counties. Although we observed similar median values and ranges of the cumulative heat vulnerability index values among urban and rural residents overall, the pattern varied strongly from one county to another. CONCLUSIONS We have developed a measure of population vulnerability to high temperatures in Tibet. These are preliminary findings, but they may assist targeted adaptation plans in response to future rapid warming in Tibet.
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Affiliation(s)
- Li Bai
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102206, P. R. China.
| | - Alistair Woodward
- School of Population Health, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand.
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing, 102206, P. R. China.
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, 44 WenHua Road, Jinan, 250012, Shangdong, P. R. China.
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30
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Gu S, Huang C, Bai L, Chu C, Liu Q. Heat-related illness in China, summer of 2013. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2016; 60:131-137. [PMID: 26109498 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-015-1011-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2014] [Revised: 05/05/2015] [Accepted: 05/13/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Extreme heat events have occurred more frequently in China in recent years, leading to serious impacts on human life and the health care system. To identify the characteristics of individuals with heat-related illnesses in China during the summer of 2013, we collected the data from the Heat-related Illness Surveillance System in Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). A total of 5758 cases were reported in the summer of 2013, mostly concentrated in urban areas around the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. We found a difference in age distribution of percentage of deaths from heat-related illness between males and females. Severe cases in males mostly occurred in the age group 45-74 years but in females mostly in the age group over 75. A distributed lag non-linear model had been used to identify population vulnerabilities in Ningbo and Chongqing. The results show that there was a clear positive relationship between maximum temperature and heat-related illness, and the heat effect was nonlinear and could last for 3 days. The elderly and males in the range of 45-64 years old might be the most vulnerable people of heat-related illness in China. We also highlighted some deficiencies of the surveillance system, such that the reported data were not accurate, comprehensive, or timely enough at this stage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shaohua Gu
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
| | - Cunrui Huang
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
| | - Li Bai
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
| | - Cordia Chu
- Centre for Environment and Population Health, School of Environment, Griffith University, Nathan, Australia.
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
- Centre for Environment and Population Health, School of Environment, Griffith University, Nathan, Australia.
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, China.
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31
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Wu X, Lu Y, Zhou S, Chen L, Xu B. Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2016; 86:14-23. [PMID: 26479830 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2015.09.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 351] [Impact Index Per Article: 43.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2015] [Revised: 08/28/2015] [Accepted: 09/02/2015] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoxu Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Yongmei Lu
- Department of Geography, Texas State University, San Marcos, TX 78666-4684, USA.
| | - Sen Zhou
- Center for Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University Beijing, 100084, China
| | - Lifan Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Bing Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Center for Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University Beijing, 100084, China; Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA.
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32
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Yang C, Meng X, Chen R, Cai J, Zhao Z, Wan Y, Kan H. Long-term variations in the association between ambient temperature and daily cardiovascular mortality in Shanghai, China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2015; 538:524-30. [PMID: 26318688 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.097] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2015] [Revised: 07/22/2015] [Accepted: 08/17/2015] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to explore the long-term variation in the association between ambient temperature and daily cardiovascular (CVD) mortality in Shanghai, China. MATERIALS AND METHODS We collected daily data on ambient temperature and CVD mortality from a central urban district in Shanghai, China, during the period from 1981 to 2012. We used overdispersed generalized additive Poisson regression together with a distributed lag nonlinear model to estimate potentially lagged and nonlinear effects of temperature on CVD mortality after controlling for the seasonality, relative humidity, day of the week, holidays and population size. To allow for the evaluation of long-term variations in the effects, we divided the entire study period into six sub-periods (1981-1985, 1986-1990, 1991-1995, 1996-2000, 2001-2005, and 2006-2012) and analyzed the effect estimates in each sub-period separately. RESULTS The association between temperature and daily CVD mortality was J-shaped with both low and high temperatures increasing the risk of CVD deaths. The effects of extremely low temperatures were delayed and persisted for two weeks, while extreme hot effects were limited to the first five days followed by a significant mortality displacement (9days). The relative risks (RRs) of extremely low, moderately low, moderately high, and extremely high temperatures comparing the 1st, 10th, 90th, and 99th percentile with the reference temperature (26°C) over the cumulative lags of 0-14days were 1.95 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.84,2.07], 1.61 (95% CI: 1.57,1.66), 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01,1.05), and 1.14 (95% CI: 1.07,1.21). The RRs for extremely low and moderately low temperature attenuated substantially from 9.78 and 5.52 in 1981-1985 to 1.42 and 1.18 in 2006-2012, respectively, but the RRs remained almost stable for extremely high and moderately high temperatures. CONCLUSIONS This time-series study suggested that there might have been some human adaptation to low ambient temperature in Shanghai, China, over the last 3 decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- Changyuan Yang
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Xia Meng
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP(3)), Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Jing Cai
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Zhuohui Zhao
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yue Wan
- Division of Environment and Health Management, Department of Science, Technology and Standards, Ministry of Environmental Protection, China.
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP(3)), Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
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33
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Liu C, Yavar Z, Sun Q. Cardiovascular response to thermoregulatory challenges. Am J Physiol Heart Circ Physiol 2015; 309:H1793-812. [PMID: 26432837 DOI: 10.1152/ajpheart.00199.2015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 168] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2015] [Accepted: 09/28/2015] [Indexed: 01/05/2023]
Abstract
A growing number of extreme climate events are occurring in the setting of ongoing climate change, with an increase in both the intensity and frequency. It has been shown that ambient temperature challenges have a direct and highly varied impact on cardiovascular health. With a rapidly growing amount of literature on this issue, we aim to review the recent publications regarding the impact of cold and heat on human populations with regard to cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality/morbidity while also examining lag effects, vulnerable subgroups, and relevant mechanisms. Although the relative risk of morbidity/mortality associated with extreme temperature varied greatly across different studies, both cold and hot temperatures were associated with a positive mean excess of cardiovascular deaths or hospital admissions. Cause-specific study of CVD morbidity/mortality indicated that the sensitivity to temperature was disease-specific, with different patterns for acute and chronic ischemic heart disease. Vulnerability to temperature-related mortality was associated with some characteristics of the populations, including sex, age, location, socioeconomic condition, and comorbidities such as cardiac diseases, kidney diseases, diabetes, and hypertension. Temperature-induced damage is thought to be related to enhanced sympathetic reactivity followed by activation of the sympathetic nervous system, renin-angiotensin system, as well as dehydration and a systemic inflammatory response. Future research should focus on multidisciplinary adaptation strategies that incorporate epidemiology, climatology, indoor/building environments, energy usage, labor legislative perfection, and human thermal comfort models. Studies on the underlying mechanism by which temperature challenge induces pathophysiological response and CVD await profound and lasting investigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cuiqing Liu
- Basic Medical College, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, China; and
| | - Zubin Yavar
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio
| | - Qinghua Sun
- Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio
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Yang J, Ou CQ, Guo Y, Li L, Guo C, Chen PY, Lin HL, Liu QY. The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost in Guangzhou, China. Sci Rep 2015; 5:12250. [PMID: 26247571 PMCID: PMC4527090 DOI: 10.1038/srep12250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2014] [Accepted: 06/23/2015] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Limited evidence is available on the association between temperature and years of life lost (YLL). We applied distributed lag non-linear model to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on YLL due to cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, China. We found that hot effects appeared immediately, while cold effects were more delayed and lasted for 14 days. On average, 1 °C decrease from 25(th) to 1(st) percentile of temperature was associated with an increase of 31.15 (95%CI: 20.57, 41.74), 12.86 (8.05, 17.68) and 6.64 (3.68, 9.61) YLL along lag 0-14 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively. The corresponding estimate of cumulative hot effects (1 °C increase from 75(th) to 99(th) percentile of temperature) was 12.71 (-2.80, 28.23), 4.81 (-2.25, 11.88) and 2.81 (-1.54, 7.16). Effect estimates of cold and hot temperatures-related YLL were higher in people aged up to 75 years and persons with low education level than the elderly and those with high education level, respectively. The mortality risks associated with cold and hot temperatures were greater on the elderly and persons with low education level. This study highlights that YLL provides a complementary method for assessing the death burden of temperature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jun Yang
- 1] State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China [2] Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
| | - Chun-Quan Ou
- State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
| | - Yuming Guo
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4006, Australia
| | - Li Li
- State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
| | - Cui Guo
- State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
| | - Ping-Yan Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
| | - Hua-Liang Lin
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Qunxian Road, 160, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Qi-Yong Liu
- 1] State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China [2] Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
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Wei J, Hansen A, Liu Q, Sun Y, Weinstein P, Bi P. The effect of meteorological variables on the transmission of hand, foot and mouth disease in four major cities of shanxi province, China: a time series data analysis (2009-2013). PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2015; 9:e0003572. [PMID: 25742504 PMCID: PMC4351101 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003572] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2014] [Accepted: 01/27/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Increased incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been recognized as a critical challenge to communicable disease control and public health response. This study aimed to quantify the association between climate variation and notified cases of HFMD in selected cities of Shanxi Province, and to provide evidence for disease control and prevention. Meteorological variables and HFMD cases data in 4 major cities (Datong, Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng) of Shanxi province, China, were obtained from the China Meteorology Administration and China CDC respectively over the period 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013. Correlations analyses and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were used to identify and quantify the relationship between the meteorological variables and HFMD. HFMD incidence varied seasonally with the majority of cases in the 4 cities occurring from May to July. Temperatures could play important roles in the incidence of HFMD in these regions. The SARIMA models indicate that a 1° C rise in average, maximum and minimum temperatures may lead to a similar relative increase in the number of cases in the 4 cities. The lag times for the effects of temperatures were identified in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng. The numbers of cases were positively associated with average and minimum temperatures at a lag of 1 week in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng, and with maximum temperature at a lag of 2 weeks in Yuncheng. Positive association between the temperature and HFMD has been identified from the 4 cities in Shanxi Province, although the role of weather variables on the transmission of HFMD varied in the 4 cities. Relevant prevention measures and public health action are required to reduce future risks of climate change with consideration of local climatic conditions. Understanding of the impact of weather variables on HFMD transmission remains limited due to various local climatic conditions, socioeconomic status and demographic characteristics in different regions. This study provides quantitative evidence that the incidence of HFMD cases was significantly associated with temperature in Shanxi Province, North China. The delayed effects of weather variables on HFMD dictate different public health responses in 4 major cities in Shanxi Province. The results may provide a direction for local community and health authorities to perform public health actions, and the SARIMA models are helpful in the prediction of epidemics, determination of high-risk areas and susceptible populations, allocation of health resources, and the formulation of relevant prevention strategies. In order to reduce future risks of climatic variations on HFMD epidemics, similar studies in other geographical areas are needed, together with a longer study period to enable trend analysis which takes into consideration local weather conditions and demographic characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junni Wei
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China
- * E-mail: (JW); (PB)
| | - Alana Hansen
- Discipline of Public Health, School of Population Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Yehuan Sun
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Phil Weinstein
- Division of Health Sciences, School of Pharmacy and Medical Sciences, The University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Peng Bi
- Discipline of Public Health, School of Population Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
- * E-mail: (JW); (PB)
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Chen K, Bi J, Chen J, Chen X, Huang L, Zhou L. Influence of heat wave definitions to the added effect of heat waves on daily mortality in Nanjing, China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2015; 506-507:18-25. [PMID: 25460935 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.10.092] [Citation(s) in RCA: 93] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2014] [Revised: 09/27/2014] [Accepted: 10/27/2014] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Few studies have explored the added effect of heat waves, especially in China. Moreover, no prior studies have assessed whether the choice of heat wave definitions affected this added effect. This study compared the associations between heat waves defined by different heat wave definitions (HWs) and cause-specific mortality in warm season in Nanjing, China. METHODS A distributed lag model was applied to evaluate the differences in daily mortality during heat-wave days (defined using 15 HWs) compared with non-heat-wave days in Nanjing, during 2007 to 2013. For different HWs, model fits were examined by the Akaike Information Criterion for quasi-Poisson and effects were compared by stratified analysis and bootstrapping. In addition, we explored the effect modifications by individual characteristics under different HWs. RESULTS Different HWs resulted in considerable differences in associations between heat waves and mortality. Heat waves defined as ≥4 consecutive days with daily average temperature >98th percentile had the best model fit and were associated with an increase of 24.6% (95% CI: 15.6%, 34.3%) total mortality, 46.9% (95% CI: 33.0%, 62.3%) cardiovascular mortality, 32.0% (95% CI: 8.5%, 60.5%) respiratory mortality, 51.3% (95% CI: 23.4%, 85.6%) stroke mortality, 63.4% (95% CI: 41.5%, 88.8%) ischemic heart disease mortality, and 47.6% (95% CI: 14.5%, 90.3%) chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality at lag day 2. Under different HWs, added effects of heat waves on mortality were higher for females versus males, the elderly versus young residents, and people with low education versus those with high education. Results were less sensitive to the inclusion of air pollutants. CONCLUSIONS Heat wave definition plays a critical role in the relationship between heat waves and mortality. Selecting an appropriate definition of heat waves is therefore important to design local heat warning systems and to reduce the burden of disease during heat waves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kai Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
| | - Jun Bi
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
| | - Jin Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
| | - Xiaodong Chen
- Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Nanjing, China
| | - Lei Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
| | - Lian Zhou
- Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Nanjing, China.
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