Data-driven analysis of nutrient inputs and transfers through nested catchments

Legacy nutrients in the Baltic Sea drainage basin: How past practices affect eutrophication management

We have constructed a nutrient fate model for the Baltic Sea that links anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to the catchment to the dynamics of waterborne loads to the Baltic Sea, covering the time-period from 1900 to present. During this period, nutrient inputs to the drainage basin approximately tripled to a peak in the 1980s, after which they declined. Our model accounts for temporary nutrient storage on land and in inland waters, forming active legacy pools that contribute to nutrient export to the Baltic Sea, and for nutrient removal by terrestrial and aquatic sinks. The model indicates that response times to changes in anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the drainage basin are approximately 4 years for riverine nitrogen and 6-18 years for riverine phosphorus loads. Mineral fertilizer use in agriculture dominates nutrient inputs to the drainage basin, whereas the composition of riverine loads also depends on the collection and treatment of domestic sewage. Removal by terrestrial and aquatic nutrient sinks was the dominant fate of both nitrogen and phosphorus in our model. The amount of nutrients currently stored in legacy pools is therefore much smaller than what the difference between cumulative nutrient inputs to the catchment and the export to the sea suggests. Nevertheless, mobilization from these storage pools is the primary contribution to current anthropogenic riverine nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. For phosphorus, the legacy effects of past reductions in inputs to the catchment can entail a significant, yet unrealized contribution toward the load reductions stipulated by Baltic Sea management plans. Therefore, accounting for nutrient storage, time-lags, and legacy effects could notably reduce the need for additional future mitigation measures.

Legacy sources determine current water quality: Nitrogen and phosphorus in streams of Australia, China, Sweden and USA

Waterborne nutrient loads to downstream ecosystems integrate contributions from both active and legacy sources. Effective mitigation of nutrient pollution and eutrophication around the world requires distinction of these, largely unknown, relative load contributions. Here, the active and legacy contributions to nitrogen and phosphorus loads are distinguished in numerous streams and associated hydrological catchments of Australia, China, Sweden, and USA. The legacy contributions overshadow the active ones in all countries during 2005-2020. China and USA, with higher population densities and related overall human-activity levels, also have substantial active contributions. The median values of legacy concentration contributions of total nitrogen range from 321 (in Sweden) to 1850 μg/L (in USA); whereas the active contributions range from 2.2 (in Australia) to 315 μg/L (in USA). In China, nitrogen data are available only for ammonia, with median concentration contributions of 294 μg/L for legacy and 352 μg/L for active sources. For total phosphorus, the median values of legacy concentration contributions range from 28.8 (in Sweden) to 270 μg/L (in USA), while the active ones range from 0.1 (in Australia) to 67.3 μg/L (in USA). For relatively fast mitigation responses, China and USA need to mitigate their current nutrient emissions, while Australia and Sweden need a shift in mitigation focus to targeting their dominant legacy source contributions. The data-driven method testing in this study supports the used source distinction-attribution approach. This enables consistent source identification and tailoring of targeted measures for effective nutrient load mitigation in various regional contexts.

Catchment-scale microbial sulfate reduction (MSR) of acid mine drainage (AMD) revealed by sulfur isotopes

Laboratory experiments and point observations, for instance in wetlands, have shown evidence that microbial sulfate reduction (MSR) can lower sulfate and toxic metal concentrations in acid mine drainage (AMD). We here hypothesize that MSR can impact the fate of AMD in entire catchments. To test this, we developed a sulfur isotope fractionation and mass-balance method, and applied it at multiple locations in the catchment of an abandoned copper mine (Nautanen, northern Sweden). Results showed that MSR caused considerable, catchment-scale immobilization of sulfur corresponding to a retention of 27 ± 15% under unfrozen conditions in the summer season, with local values ranging between 13 ± 10% and 53 ± 18%. Present evidence of extensive MSR in Nautanen, together with previous evidence of local MSR occurring under many different conditions, suggest that field-scale MSR is most likely important also at other AMD sites, where retention of AMD may be enhanced through nature-based solutions. More generally, the developed isotope fractionation analysis scheme provides a relatively simple tool for quantification of spatio-temporal trends in MSR, answering to the emerging need of pollution control from cumulative anthropogenic pressures in the landscape, where strategies taking advantage of MSR can provide viable options.

Scientists' warning to humanity on the freshwater biodiversity crisis

Freshwater ecosystems provide irreplaceable services for both nature and society. The quality and quantity of freshwater affect biogeochemical processes and ecological dynamics that determine biodiversity, ecosystem productivity, and human health and welfare at local, regional and global scales. Freshwater ecosystems and their associated riparian habitats are amongst the most biologically diverse on Earth, and have inestimable economic, health, cultural, scientific and educational values. Yet human impacts to lakes, rivers, streams, wetlands and groundwater are dramatically reducing biodiversity and robbing critical natural resources and services from current and future generations. Freshwater biodiversity is declining rapidly on every continent and in every major river basin on Earth, and this degradation is occurring more rapidly than in terrestrial ecosystems. Currently, about one third of all global freshwater discharges pass through human agricultural, industrial or urban infrastructure. About one fifth of the Earth's arable land is now already equipped for irrigation, including all the most productive lands, and this proportion is projected to surpass one third by midcentury to feed the rapidly expanding populations of humans and commensal species, especially poultry and ruminant livestock. Less than one fifth of the world's preindustrial freshwater wetlands remain, and this proportion is projected to decline to under one tenth by midcentury, with imminent threats from water transfer megaprojects in Brazil and India, and coastal wetland drainage megaprojects in China. The Living Planet Index for freshwater vertebrate populations has declined to just one third that of 1970, and is projected to sink below one fifth by midcentury. A linear model of global economic expansion yields the chilling prediction that human utilization of critical freshwater resources will approach one half of the Earth's total capacity by midcentury. Although the magnitude and growth of the human freshwater footprint are greater than is generally understood by policy makers, the news media, or the general public, slowing and reversing dramatic losses of freshwater species and ecosystems is still possible. We recommend a set of urgent policy actions that promote clean water, conserve watershed services, and restore freshwater ecosystems and their vital services. Effective management of freshwater resources and ecosystems must be ranked amongst humanity's highest priorities.

Scenarios of Nutrient-Related Solute Loading and Transport Fate from Different Land Catchments and Coasts into the Baltic Sea

This study uses controlled numerical experimentation to comparatively simulate and investigate solute transport and concentration responses and patterns in the Baltic Sea for various solute releases from the land through two different coastal cases. These cases are the Swedish Kalmar County coast and the Polish coast of the Vistula River outlet. For equivalent solute releases, the coastal flow conditions and their interactions with main marine currents determine the local coastal solute spreading, while the overall spreading over the Baltic Sea is similar for the two coastal cases, despite their large local differences. For nutrient-proportional solute release scenarios, the highly-populated Vistula catchment yields much greater total, but smaller per-capita nutrient impacts, in the Baltic Sea than the Kalmar County catchment. To be as low as from the Vistula catchment, the per-capita nutrient contribution from Kalmar County would have to be reduced much more than required on average per Swedish inhabitant by the Baltic Sea Action Plan. This highlights an unfairness issue in the per-capita distribution of nutrient load allowance among the Baltic countries, which needs to be considered and handled in further research and international efforts aimed to combat the Baltic Sea eutrophication.

Data-driven competitive facilitative tree interactions and their implications on nature-based solutions

Spatio-temporal data are more ubiquitous and richer than even before and the availability of such data poses great challenges in data analytics. Ecological facilitation, the positive effect of density of individuals on the individual's survival across a stress gradient, is a complex phenomenon. A large number of tree individuals coupled with soil moisture, temperature, and water stress data across a long temporal period were followed. Data-driven analysis in the absence of hypothesis was performed. Information theoretic analysis of multiple statistical models was employed in order to quantify the best data-driven index of vegetation density and spatial scale of interactions. Sequentially, tree survival was quantified as a function of the size of the individual, vegetation density, and time at the optimal spatial interaction scale. Land surface temperature and soil moisture were also statistically explained by tree size, density, and time. Results indicated that in space both facilitation and competition co-exist in the same ecosystem and the sign and magnitude of this depend on the spatial scale. Overall, within the optimal data-driven spatial scale, tree survival was best explained by the interaction between density and year, sifting overall from facilitation to competition through time. However, small sized trees were always facilitated by increased densities, while large sized trees had either negative or no density effects. Tree size was more important predictor than density in survival and this has implications for nature-based solutions: maintaining large tree individuals or planting species that can become large-sized can safeguard against tree-less areas by promoting survival at long time periods through harsh environmental conditions. Large trees had also a significant effect in moderating land surface temperature and this effect was higher than the one of vegetation density on temperature.