1
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Cantoni J, Kalantari Z, Destouni G. Legacy contributions to diffuse water pollution: Data-driven multi-catchment quantification for nutrients and carbon. Sci Total Environ 2023; 879:163092. [PMID: 37001269 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163092] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2022] [Revised: 02/27/2023] [Accepted: 03/23/2023] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
Legacy pollutants are increasingly proposed as possible reasons for widespread failures to improve water quality, despite the implementation of stricter regulations and mitigation measures. This study investigates this possibility, using multi-catchment data and relatively simple, yet mechanistically-based, source distinction relationships between water discharges and chemical concentrations and loads. The relationships are tested and supported by the available catchment data. They show dominant legacy contributions for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) across catchment locations and scales, from local to country-wide around Sweden. Consistently across the study catchments, close relationships are found between the legacy concentrations of TN and TOC and the land shares of agriculture and of the sum of agriculture and forests, respectively. The legacy distinction and quantification capabilities provided by the data-driven approach of this study could guide more effective pollution mitigation and should be tested in further research for other chemicals and various sites around the world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacopo Cantoni
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Zahra Kalantari
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, SE-100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
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2
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Ma Y, Kalantari Z, Destouni G. Infectious Disease Sensitivity to Climate and Other Driver-Pressure Changes: Research Effort and Gaps for Lyme Disease and Cryptosporidiosis. Geohealth 2023; 7:e2022GH000760. [PMID: 37303696 PMCID: PMC10251199 DOI: 10.1029/2022gh000760] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2022] [Revised: 05/24/2023] [Accepted: 05/25/2023] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Climate sensitivity of infectious diseases is discussed in many studies. A quantitative basis for distinguishing and predicting the disease impacts of climate and other environmental and anthropogenic driver-pressure changes, however, is often lacking. To assess research effort and identify possible key gaps that can guide further research, we here apply a scoping review approach to two widespread infectious diseases: Lyme disease (LD) as a vector-borne and cryptosporidiosis as a water-borne disease. Based on the emerging publication data, we further structure and quantitatively assess the driver-pressure foci and interlinkages considered in the published research so far. This shows important research gaps for the roles of rarely investigated water-related and socioeconomic factors for LD, and land-related factors for cryptosporidiosis. For both diseases, the interactions of host and parasite communities with climate and other driver-pressure factors are understudied, as are also important world regions relative to the disease geographies; in particular, Asia and Africa emerge as main geographic gaps for LD and cryptosporidiosis research, respectively. The scoping approach developed and gaps identified in this study should be useful for further assessment and guidance of research on infectious disease sensitivity to climate and other environmental and anthropogenic changes around the world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Y. Ma
- Department of Physical GeographyStockholm UniversityStockholmSweden
| | - Z. Kalantari
- Department of Physical GeographyStockholm UniversityStockholmSweden
- Department of Sustainable DevelopmentEnvironmental Science and Engineering (SEED)KTH Royal Institute of TechnologyStockholmSweden
| | - G. Destouni
- Department of Physical GeographyStockholm UniversityStockholmSweden
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3
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Hambäck PA, Dawson L, Geranmayeh P, Jarsjö J, Kačergytė I, Peacock M, Collentine D, Destouni G, Futter M, Hugelius G, Hedman S, Jonsson S, Klatt BK, Lindström A, Nilsson JE, Pärt T, Schneider LD, Strand JA, Urrutia-Cordero P, Åhlén D, Åhlén I, Blicharska M. Tradeoffs and synergies in wetland multifunctionality: A scaling issue. Sci Total Environ 2023; 862:160746. [PMID: 36513236 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160746] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2022] [Revised: 08/31/2022] [Accepted: 12/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Wetland area in agricultural landscapes has been heavily reduced to gain land for crop production, but in recent years there is increased societal recognition of the negative consequences from wetland loss on nutrient retention, biodiversity and a range of other benefits to humans. The current trend is therefore to re-establish wetlands, often with an aim to achieve the simultaneous delivery of multiple ecosystem services, i.e., multifunctionality. Here we review the literature on key objectives used to motivate wetland re-establishment in temperate agricultural landscapes (provision of flow regulation, nutrient retention, climate mitigation, biodiversity conservation and cultural ecosystem services), and their relationships to environmental properties, in order to identify potential for tradeoffs and synergies concerning the development of multifunctional wetlands. Through this process, we find that there is a need for a change in scale from a focus on single wetlands to wetlandscapes (multiple neighboring wetlands including their catchments and surrounding landscape features) if multiple societal and environmental goals are to be achieved. Finally, we discuss the key factors to be considered when planning for re-establishment of wetlands that can support achievement of a wide range of objectives at the landscape scale.
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Affiliation(s)
- P A Hambäck
- Dept of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - L Dawson
- School of Forest Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skinnskatteberg, Sweden
| | - P Geranmayeh
- Dept of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - J Jarsjö
- Dept of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - I Kačergytė
- Dept of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - M Peacock
- Dept of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; Dept of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, UK
| | - D Collentine
- Dept of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - G Destouni
- Dept of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - M Futter
- Dept of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - G Hugelius
- Dept of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - S Hedman
- The Rural Economy and Agricultural Society, Eldsberga, Sweden
| | - S Jonsson
- Dept of Environmental Science, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - B K Klatt
- The Rural Economy and Agricultural Society, Eldsberga, Sweden; Dept of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - A Lindström
- National Veterinary Institute, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - J E Nilsson
- Dept of Environmental and Biosciences, Halmstad University, Halmstad, Sweden; Dept of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - T Pärt
- Dept of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - L D Schneider
- The Rural Economy and Agricultural Society, Eldsberga, Sweden
| | - J A Strand
- The Rural Economy and Agricultural Society, Eldsberga, Sweden
| | | | - D Åhlén
- Dept of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - I Åhlén
- Dept of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - M Blicharska
- Natural Resources and Sustainable Development, Dept of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
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4
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Vigouroux G, Destouni G. Gap identification in coastal eutrophication research - Scoping review for the Baltic system case. Sci Total Environ 2022; 839:156240. [PMID: 35644392 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156240] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2022] [Revised: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 05/22/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Coastal eutrophication is a major issue worldwide, also affecting the Baltic Sea and its coastal waters. Effective management responses to coastal eutrophication require good understanding of the interacting coastal pressures from land, the open sea, and the atmosphere, and associated coastal ecosystem impacts. In this study, we investigate how research on Baltic coastal eutrophication has handled these interactions so far and what key research gaps still remain. We do this through a scoping review, identifying 832 scientific papers with a focus on Baltic coastal eutrophication. These are categorized in terms of study focus, methods, and consideration of coastal system components and land-coast-sea interactions. The coastal component categories include coastal functions (including also socio-economic driver aspects), pressures that are natural (or mediated by a natural process or system) or directly anthropogenic, and management responses. The classification results show that considerably more studies focus on coastal eutrophication pressures (52%) or impacts (39%) than on characterizing the coastal eutrophication itself (20%). Moreover, few studies investigate pressures and impacts together, indicating that feedbacks are understudied. Regarding methods, more studies focus on data collection (62%) than on linking and synthetic methods (44%; e.g., modelling), and very few studies use remote sensing (6%) or participatory (3%) methods. Coastal links with land and open sea are mentioned but much less investigated. Among the coastal functions, studies considering ecological aspects are dominant, but much fewer studies investigate human aspects and the coastal filter function. Among the coastal pressures, studies considering nutrient loads are dominant, but much fewer studies investigate the sources of these loads, especially long-lived legacy sources and possible solutions for their mitigation. Overall, few studies investigate synergies, trade-offs and incentives for various solutions to address cross-scale multi-solution management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guillaume Vigouroux
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
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5
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Kåresdotter E, Destouni G, Ghajarnia N, Lammers RB, Kalantari Z. Distinguishing Direct Human-Driven Effects on the Global Terrestrial Water Cycle. Earths Future 2022; 10:e2022EF002848. [PMID: 36246544 PMCID: PMC9539502 DOI: 10.1029/2022ef002848] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2022] [Revised: 06/21/2022] [Accepted: 08/04/2022] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Population growth is increasing the pressure on water resource availability. For useful assessment and planning for societal water availability impacts, it is imperative to disentangle the direct influences of human activities in the landscape from external climate-driven influences on water flows and their variation and change. In this study we used the water balance model, a gridded global hydrological model, to quantify and distinguish human-driven change components, modified by interventions such as dams, reservoirs, and water withdrawals for irrigation, industry, and households, from climate-driven change components on four key water balance variables in the terrestrial hydrological system (evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture, storage change). We also analyzed emergent effect patterns in and across different parts of the world, facilitating exploration of spatial variability and regional patterns on multiple spatial scales, from pixel to global, including previously uninvestigated parts of the world. Our results show that human activities drive changes in all hydrological variables, with different magnitudes and directions depending on geographical location. The differences between model scenarios with and without human activities were largest in regions with the highest population densities. In such regions, which also have relatively large numbers of dams for irrigation, water largely tends to be removed from storage and go to feed increased runoff and evapotranspiration fluxes. Our analysis considers a more complete set of hydrological variables than previous studies and can guide further research and management planning for future hydrological and water availability trends, including in relatively data-poor parts of the world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elisie Kåresdotter
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate ResearchStockholm UniversityStockholmSweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate ResearchStockholm UniversityStockholmSweden
| | - Navid Ghajarnia
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate ResearchStockholm UniversityStockholmSweden
| | - Richard B. Lammers
- Earth Systems Research CenterInstitute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and SpaceUniversity of New HampshireDurhamNHUSA
| | - Zahra Kalantari
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate ResearchStockholm UniversityStockholmSweden
- Department of Sustainable DevelopmentEnvironmental Science and Engineering (SEED)KTH Royal Institute of TechnologyStockholmSweden
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6
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Ferreira CSS, Seifollahi-Aghmiuni S, Destouni G, Ghajarnia N, Kalantari Z. Soil degradation in the European Mediterranean region: Processes, status and consequences. Sci Total Environ 2022; 805:150106. [PMID: 34537691 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2021] [Revised: 08/30/2021] [Accepted: 08/30/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Soil, a non-renewable resource, sustains life on Earth by supporting around 95% of global food production and providing ecosystem services such as biomass production, filtration of contaminants and transfer of mass and energy between spheres. Unsustainable management practices and climate change are threatening the natural capital of soils, particularly in the Mediterranean region, where increasing population, rapid land-use changes, associated socio-economic activities and climate change are imposing high pressures on the region's shallow soils. Despite evidence of high soil susceptibility to degradation and desertification, the true extent of soil degradation in the region is unknown. This paper reviews and summarises the scientific literature and relevant official reports, with the aim to advance this knowledge by synthesizing, mapping, and identifying gaps regarding the status, causes, and consequences of soil degradation processes in the European Mediterranean region. This is needed as scientific underpinning of efforts to counteract soil degradation in the region. Three main degradation categories are then considered: physical (soil sealing, compaction, erosion), chemical (soil organic matter, contamination, salinisation), and biological. We find some degradation processes to be relatively well-documented (e.g. soil erosion), while others, such as loss of biodiversity, remain poorly addressed, with limited data availability. We suggest establishment of a continuous, harmonised soil monitoring system at national and regional scale in the Mediterranean region to provide comparable datasets and chart the spatial extent and temporal changes in soil degradation, and corresponding economic implications. This is critical to support decision-making and fulfilment of related sustainable development goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carla S S Ferreira
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden; Navarino Environmental Observatory, Costa Navarino, Navarino Dunes Messinia 24001, Greece.
| | - Samaneh Seifollahi-Aghmiuni
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden; Navarino Environmental Observatory, Costa Navarino, Navarino Dunes Messinia 24001, Greece
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden; Navarino Environmental Observatory, Costa Navarino, Navarino Dunes Messinia 24001, Greece
| | - Navid Ghajarnia
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Zahra Kalantari
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden; Navarino Environmental Observatory, Costa Navarino, Navarino Dunes Messinia 24001, Greece; Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, SE-100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
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7
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Goldenberg R, Kalantari Z, Destouni G. Comparative quantification of local climate regulation by green and blue urban areas in cities across Europe. Sci Rep 2021; 11:23872. [PMID: 34903796 PMCID: PMC8669022 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-03140-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2021] [Accepted: 11/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Urban growth alters environmental conditions with major consequences for climate regulation and the exposure of population to heat. Nature-based solutions may be used to alleviate the increasing urban climate pressures, but the climate regulation services that these solutions can supply for and across different urban conditions remains understudied. We comparatively investigate the urban ecosystem service realization (considering the ecosystem service supply and demand spatial interactions) of local climate regulation by vegetated (green) and water-covered (blue) areas across 660 European cities. Results show relatively robust power-law relationships with city population density (average R2 of 0.34) of main indicators of ecosystem service realization. Country-wise fitting for city-average indicators strengthens these relationships, in particular for western European cities (average R2 of 0.66). Cross-city results also show strong power-law relationship of effectiveness in ecosystem service realization with socio-economic measures like Human Development Index and GPD per capita, in particular for the area fraction of city parts with high ecosystem service realization (R2 of 0.77). The quantified relationships are useful for comparative understanding of differences in ecosystem services realization between cities and city parts, and quantitative projection of possible change trends under different types of city growth so that relevant measures can be taken to counteract undesirable trends.
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Affiliation(s)
- Romain Goldenberg
- Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Center for Climate Research and Navarino Environmental Observatory, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Zahra Kalantari
- Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Center for Climate Research and Navarino Environmental Observatory, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Center for Climate Research and Navarino Environmental Observatory, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
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8
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Vigouroux G, Kari E, Beltrán-Abaunza JM, Uotila P, Yuan D, Destouni G. Trend correlations for coastal eutrophication and its main local and whole-sea drivers - Application to the Baltic Sea. Sci Total Environ 2021; 779:146367. [PMID: 34030242 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2020] [Revised: 03/05/2021] [Accepted: 03/05/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Coastal eutrophication is a major environmental issue worldwide. In the Baltic Sea, eutrophication affects both the coastal waters and the open sea. Various policy frameworks aim to hinder its progress but eutrophication-relevant water quality variables, such as chlorophyll-a concentrations, still exhibit opposite temporal trends in various Baltic Sea marine and coastal waters. In this study, we investigate the temporal-trend linkages of measured water quality variables and their various anthropogenic, climatic and hydrospheric drivers over the period 1990-2020 with focus on the Swedish coastal waters and related marine basins in the Baltic Sea. We find that it is necessary to distinguish more and less isolated coastal waters, based on their water exchanges with the open sea, to capture different coastal eutrophication dynamics. In less isolated coastal waters, eutrophication is primarily related to nitrogen concentrations, while it is more related to phosphorus concentrations in more isolated coastal waters. In the open sea, trends in eutrophication conditions correlate best with trends in climatic and hydrospheric drivers, like wind speed and water salinity, respectively. In the coastal waters, driver signals are more mixed, with considerable influences from anthropogenic land-based nutrient loads and sea-ice cover duration. Summer chlorophyll-a concentration in the open sea stands out as a main change driver of summer chlorophyll-a concentration in less isolated coastal waters. Overall, coastal waters are a melting pot of driver influences over various scales, from local land-based drivers to large-scale total catchment and open sea conditions. The latter in turn depend on long-term integration of pathway-dependent influences from the various coastal parts of the Baltic Sea and their land-based nutrient load drivers, combined with overarching climate conditions and internal feedback loops. As such, our results challenge any unidirectional local source-to-sea paradigm and emphasize a need for concerted local land-catchment and whole-sea measures for robust coastal eutrophication management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guillaume Vigouroux
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Elina Kari
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland.
| | | | - Petteri Uotila
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland.
| | - Dekui Yuan
- Department of Mechanics, School of Mechanical Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300354, China.
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
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9
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Åhlén I, Vigouroux G, Destouni G, Pietroń J, Ghajarnia N, Anaya J, Blanco J, Borja S, Chalov S, Chun KP, Clerici N, Desormeaux A, Girard P, Gorelits O, Hansen A, Jaramillo F, Kalantari Z, Labbaci A, Licero-Villanueva L, Livsey J, Maneas G, Pisarello KLM, Pahani DM, Palomino-Ángel S, Price R, Ricaurte-Villota C, Fernanda Ricaurte L, Rivera-Monroy VH, Rodriguez A, Rodriguez E, Salgado J, Sannel B, Seifollahi-Aghmiuni S, Simard M, Sjöberg Y, Terskii P, Thorslund J, Zamora DA, Jarsjö J. Publisher Correction: Hydro-climatic changes of wetlandscapes across the world. Sci Rep 2021; 11:13400. [PMID: 34158573 PMCID: PMC8219735 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-92697-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- I Åhlén
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - G Vigouroux
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - G Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - J Pietroń
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.,WSP Sverige AB, Ullevigatan 19, 411 40, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - N Ghajarnia
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - J Anaya
- Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Medellín, Carrera 87 30-65, 050026, Medellín, Colombia
| | - J Blanco
- Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Y Naturales, Instituto de Biología, Universidad de Antioquia, Calle 70 No. 52-21, 050010, Medellín, Colombia
| | - S Borja
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - S Chalov
- Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia, 119991
| | - K P Chun
- Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, SAR, Hong Kong, China
| | - N Clerici
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Universidad del Rosario, 13409, Bogotá, DC, Colombia
| | - A Desormeaux
- School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32603, USA
| | - P Girard
- Centro de Pesquisa do Pantanal and BioScience Institute, Federal University of Mato Grosso, Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brazil
| | - O Gorelits
- Zubov State Oceanographic Institute, Moscow, 119034, Russia
| | - A Hansen
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, 66045, USA
| | - F Jaramillo
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.,Baltic Sea Centre, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Z Kalantari
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - A Labbaci
- Department of Geology, Faculty of Sciences, Ibn Zohr University, Agadir, Morocco
| | - L Licero-Villanueva
- Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University of Greifswald, 17489, Greifswald, Germany
| | - J Livsey
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - G Maneas
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.,Navarino Environmental Observatory, 24 001, Messinia, Greece
| | - K L McCurley Pisarello
- Department of Soil and Water Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
| | - D Moshir Pahani
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - S Palomino-Ángel
- Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Medellín, Carrera 87 30-65, 050026, Medellín, Colombia.,Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de San Buenaventura, Carrera 56C N° 51-110, 050010, Medellín, Colombia
| | - R Price
- Department of Earth and Environment, Southeast Environmental Research Center, Florida International University, Miami, FL, 33199, USA
| | - C Ricaurte-Villota
- Instituto de investigaciones marinas y costeras de Colombia "José Benito Vives de Andreis"- INVEMAR, 470006, Santa Marta, Colombia
| | - L Fernanda Ricaurte
- Alexander von Humboldt Biological Resources Research Institute, Calle 28 A No. 15-09, 70803, Bogotá, DC, Colombia
| | - V H Rivera-Monroy
- Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, College of the Coast and Environment, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA
| | - A Rodriguez
- Instituto de investigaciones marinas y costeras de Colombia "José Benito Vives de Andreis"- INVEMAR, 470006, Santa Marta, Colombia
| | - E Rodriguez
- Civil and Agricultural Engineering Department, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 11001, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - J Salgado
- Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad de Los Andes, Cra. 1 No. 18A-12, 111711, Bogotá, Colombia.,Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Católica de Colombia, Av. Caracas No. 46-72, 111311, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - B Sannel
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - S Seifollahi-Aghmiuni
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - M Simard
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - Y Sjöberg
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - P Terskii
- Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia, 119991
| | - J Thorslund
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.,Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - D A Zamora
- Civil and Agricultural Engineering Department, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 11001, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - J Jarsjö
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
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10
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Åhlén I, Vigouroux G, Destouni G, Pietroń J, Ghajarnia N, Anaya J, Blanco J, Borja S, Chalov S, Chun KP, Clerici N, Desormeaux A, Girard P, Gorelits O, Hansen A, Jaramillo F, Kalantari Z, Labbaci A, Licero-Villanueva L, Livsey J, Maneas G, Pisarello KLM, Pahani DM, Palomino-Ángel S, Price R, Ricaurte-Villota C, Fernanda Ricaurte L, Rivera-Monroy VH, Rodriguez A, Rodriguez E, Salgado J, Sannel B, Seifollahi-Aghmiuni S, Simard M, Sjöberg Y, Terskii P, Thorslund J, Zamora DA, Jarsjö J. Hydro-climatic changes of wetlandscapes across the world. Sci Rep 2021; 11:2754. [PMID: 33531523 PMCID: PMC7854620 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-81137-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2020] [Accepted: 12/22/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Assessments of ecosystem service and function losses of wetlandscapes (i.e., wetlands and their hydrological catchments) suffer from knowledge gaps regarding impacts of ongoing hydro-climatic change. This study investigates hydro-climatic changes during 1976-2015 in 25 wetlandscapes distributed across the world's tropical, arid, temperate and cold climate zones. Results show that the wetlandscapes were subject to precipitation (P) and temperature (T) changes consistent with mean changes over the world's land area. However, arid and cold wetlandscapes experienced higher T increases than their respective climate zone. Also, average P decreased in arid and cold wetlandscapes, contrarily to P of arid and cold climate zones, suggesting that these wetlandscapes are located in regions of elevated climate pressures. For most wetlandscapes with available runoff (R) data, the decreases were larger in R than in P, which was attributed to aggravation of climate change impacts by enhanced evapotranspiration losses, e.g. caused by land-use changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- I Åhlén
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - G Vigouroux
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - G Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - J Pietroń
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.,WSP Sverige AB, Ullevigatan 19, 411 40, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - N Ghajarnia
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - J Anaya
- Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Medellín, Carrera 87 30-65, 050026, Medellín, Colombia
| | - J Blanco
- Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Instituto de Biología, Universidad de Antioquia, Calle 70 No. 52-21, 050010, Medellín, Colombia
| | - S Borja
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - S Chalov
- Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia, 119991
| | - K P Chun
- Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - N Clerici
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Universidad del Rosario, 13409, Bogotá, DC, Colombia
| | - A Desormeaux
- School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32603, USA
| | - P Girard
- Centro de Pesquisa do Pantanal and BioScience Institute, Federal University of Mato Grosso, Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brazil
| | - O Gorelits
- Zubov State Oceanographic Institute, Moscow, 119034, Russia
| | - A Hansen
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, 66045, USA
| | - F Jaramillo
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.,Baltic Sea Centre, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Z Kalantari
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - A Labbaci
- Department of Geology, Faculty of Sciences, Ibn Zohr University, Agadir, Morocco
| | - L Licero-Villanueva
- Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, University of Greifswald, 17489, Greifswald, Germany
| | - J Livsey
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - G Maneas
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.,Navarino Environmental Observatory, 24 001, Messinia, Greece
| | - K L McCurley Pisarello
- Department of Soil and Water Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
| | - D Moshir Pahani
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - S Palomino-Ángel
- Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Medellín, Carrera 87 30-65, 050026, Medellín, Colombia.,Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de San Buenaventura, Carrera 56C N° 51-110, 050010, Medellín, Colombia
| | - R Price
- Department of Earth and Environment, Southeast Environmental Research Center, Florida International University, Miami, FL, 33199, USA
| | - C Ricaurte-Villota
- Instituto de investigaciones marinas y costeras de Colombia "José Benito Vives de Andreis"-INVEMAR, 470006, Santa Marta, Colombia
| | - L Fernanda Ricaurte
- Alexander von Humboldt Biological Resources Research Institute, Calle 28 A No. 15-09, Bogotá, DC, 70803, Colombia
| | - V H Rivera-Monroy
- Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, College of the Coast and Environment, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA
| | - A Rodriguez
- Instituto de investigaciones marinas y costeras de Colombia "José Benito Vives de Andreis"-INVEMAR, 470006, Santa Marta, Colombia
| | - E Rodriguez
- Civil and Agricultural Engineering Department, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 11001, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - J Salgado
- Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad de Los Andes, Cra. 1 No. 18A-12, 111711, Bogotá, Colombia.,Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Católica de Colombia, Av. Caracas No. 46-72, 111311, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - B Sannel
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - S Seifollahi-Aghmiuni
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - M Simard
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - Y Sjöberg
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - P Terskii
- Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia, 119991
| | - J Thorslund
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden.,Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - D A Zamora
- Civil and Agricultural Engineering Department, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 11001, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - J Jarsjö
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
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11
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Albert JS, Destouni G, Duke-Sylvester SM, Magurran AE, Oberdorff T, Reis RE, Winemiller KO, Ripple WJ. Scientists' warning to humanity on the freshwater biodiversity crisis. Ambio 2021; 50:85-94. [PMID: 32040746 PMCID: PMC7708569 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-020-01318-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 145] [Impact Index Per Article: 48.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2019] [Revised: 12/09/2019] [Accepted: 01/07/2020] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Freshwater ecosystems provide irreplaceable services for both nature and society. The quality and quantity of freshwater affect biogeochemical processes and ecological dynamics that determine biodiversity, ecosystem productivity, and human health and welfare at local, regional and global scales. Freshwater ecosystems and their associated riparian habitats are amongst the most biologically diverse on Earth, and have inestimable economic, health, cultural, scientific and educational values. Yet human impacts to lakes, rivers, streams, wetlands and groundwater are dramatically reducing biodiversity and robbing critical natural resources and services from current and future generations. Freshwater biodiversity is declining rapidly on every continent and in every major river basin on Earth, and this degradation is occurring more rapidly than in terrestrial ecosystems. Currently, about one third of all global freshwater discharges pass through human agricultural, industrial or urban infrastructure. About one fifth of the Earth's arable land is now already equipped for irrigation, including all the most productive lands, and this proportion is projected to surpass one third by midcentury to feed the rapidly expanding populations of humans and commensal species, especially poultry and ruminant livestock. Less than one fifth of the world's preindustrial freshwater wetlands remain, and this proportion is projected to decline to under one tenth by midcentury, with imminent threats from water transfer megaprojects in Brazil and India, and coastal wetland drainage megaprojects in China. The Living Planet Index for freshwater vertebrate populations has declined to just one third that of 1970, and is projected to sink below one fifth by midcentury. A linear model of global economic expansion yields the chilling prediction that human utilization of critical freshwater resources will approach one half of the Earth's total capacity by midcentury. Although the magnitude and growth of the human freshwater footprint are greater than is generally understood by policy makers, the news media, or the general public, slowing and reversing dramatic losses of freshwater species and ecosystems is still possible. We recommend a set of urgent policy actions that promote clean water, conserve watershed services, and restore freshwater ecosystems and their vital services. Effective management of freshwater resources and ecosystems must be ranked amongst humanity's highest priorities.
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Affiliation(s)
- James S. Albert
- Department of Biology, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA 70503 USA
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Anne E. Magurran
- Centre for Biological Diversity, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, KY16 UK
| | - Thierry Oberdorff
- UMR5174 EDB (Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité Biologique), CNRS, IRD, UPS, Université Paul Sabatier, 31062 Toulouse, France
| | - Roberto E. Reis
- Department of Biodiversity and Ecology, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS 90619-900 Brazil
| | - Kirk O. Winemiller
- Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843 USA
| | - William J. Ripple
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97330 USA
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12
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Pan H, Page J, Zhang L, Cong C, Ferreira C, Jonsson E, Näsström H, Destouni G, Deal B, Kalantari Z. Understanding interactions between urban development policies and GHG emissions: A case study in Stockholm Region. Ambio 2020; 49:1313-1327. [PMID: 31749102 PMCID: PMC7190688 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-019-01290-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2019] [Revised: 08/26/2019] [Accepted: 10/31/2019] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Human-induced urban growth and sprawl have implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may not be included in conventional GHG accounting methods. Improved understanding of this issue requires use of interactive, spatial-explicit social-ecological systems modeling. This paper develops a comprehensive approach to modeling GHG emissions from urban developments, considering Stockholm County, Sweden as a case study. GHG projections to 2040 with a social-ecological system model yield overall greater emissions than simple extrapolations in official climate action planning. The most pronounced difference in emissions (39% higher) from energy use single-residence buildings resulting from urban sprawl. And this difference is not accounted for in the simple extrapolations. Scenario results indicate that a zoning policy, restricting urban development in certain areas, can mitigate 72% of the total emission effects of the model-projected urban sprawl. The study outcomes include a decision support interface for communicating results and policy implications with policymakers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haozhi Pan
- School of Design, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 800 Dongchuan Rd., Shanghai, 200240 China
| | - Jessica Page
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Le Zhang
- Department of Landscape Architecture, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Temple Buell Hall 611 Taft Drive, Champaign, 61820 IL USA
| | - Cong Cong
- Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Temple Buell Hall 611 Taft Drive, Champaign, 61820 IL USA
| | - Carla Ferreira
- Escola Superior Agrária de Coimbra, Bencanta, 3045 Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Elisie Jonsson
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Helena Näsström
- Regional Planning, Growth and Regional Planning Management, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Brian Deal
- Department of Landscape Architecture, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Temple Buell Hall 611 Taft Drive, Champaign, 61820 IL USA
| | - Zahra Kalantari
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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13
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Moshir Panahi D, Kalantari Z, Ghajarnia N, Seifollahi-Aghmiuni S, Destouni G. Variability and change in the hydro-climate and water resources of Iran over a recent 30-year period. Sci Rep 2020; 10:7450. [PMID: 32366897 PMCID: PMC7198531 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-64089-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2019] [Accepted: 04/09/2020] [Indexed: 12/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Comprehensive assessment of hydro-climatic variations and change trends is essential for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to key water resource changes in different parts of the world. We performed such an assessment on Iran, as representative of an arid/semi-arid and geopolitically important world region. We acquired and calculated data time series of surface temperature (T), precipitation (P), runoff (R), evapotranspiration (ET), and water storage change (DS), to determine their status and changes in and among the 30 main hydrological basins in Iran over the period 1986–2016. From 1986–2000 to 2001–2016, the country warmed, P mostly decreased and R even more so, while water storage was depleted (DS < 0) and ET increased in some basins. Overall, the extra water provided from primarily groundwater depletion has fed and kept ET at levels beyond those sustained by the annually renewable water input from P. This indicates unsustainable use of water for maintaining and expanding human activities, such as irrigated agriculture, in this part of the world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Davood Moshir Panahi
- Department of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, 13114-16846, Iran. .,Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-10691, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Zahra Kalantari
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Navid Ghajarnia
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Samaneh Seifollahi-Aghmiuni
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-10691, Stockholm, Sweden
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14
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Åhlén I, Hambäck P, Thorslund J, Frampton A, Destouni G, Jarsjö J. Wetlandscape size thresholds for ecosystem service delivery: Evidence from the Norrström drainage basin, Sweden. Sci Total Environ 2020; 704:135452. [PMID: 31810688 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2019] [Revised: 11/04/2019] [Accepted: 11/07/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Wetlands are interconnected with the larger surrounding landscape through the hydrological cycling of water and waterborne substances. Therefore, the borders of individual wetlands may not be appropriate landscape system boundaries for understanding large-scale functions and ecosystem services of wetlandscapes (wetland network - landscape systems), and how these can be impacted by climate and land-use changes. Recognizing that such large-scale behaviours may not be easily predicted by simple extrapolation of individual wetland behaviours, we here investigate properties of 15 Swedish wetlandscapes in the extensive (22 650 km2) Norrström drainage basin (NDB) comprising as many as 1699 wetlands. Results based on wetland survey data in combination with GIS-based ecohydrological analyses showed that wetlands located in wetlandscapes above a certain size (in the NDB: ~250 km2) consistently formed networks with characteristics required to support key ecosystem services such as nutrient/pollutant retention and biodiversity support. This was in contrast to smaller wetlandscapes (<250 km2), which had smaller and less diverse wetlands with insufficient throughflow to significantly impact large-scale flows of water and nutrients/pollutants. The existence of such wetlandscape-size thresholds is consistent with scale-dependent flow accumulation patterns in catchments, suggesting likely transferability of this result also to other regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Imenne Åhlén
- Department of Physical Geography, and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Peter Hambäck
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Josefin Thorslund
- Department of Physical Geography, and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Andrew Frampton
- Department of Physical Geography, and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography, and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jerker Jarsjö
- Department of Physical Geography, and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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15
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Kalantari Z, Santos Ferreira CS, Page J, Goldenberg R, Olsson J, Destouni G. Meeting sustainable development challenges in growing cities: Coupled social-ecological systems modeling of land use and water changes. J Environ Manage 2019; 245:471-480. [PMID: 31170636 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.05.086] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2019] [Revised: 05/19/2019] [Accepted: 05/21/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Ongoing urban expansion may degrade natural resources, ecosystems, and the services they provide to human societies, e.g., through land use and water changes and feedbacks. In order to control and minimize such negative impacts of urbanization, best practices for sustainable urban development must be identified, supported, and reinforced. To accomplish this, assessment methods and tools need to consider the couplings and feedbacks between social and ecological systems, as the basis for improving the planning and management of urban development. Collaborative efforts by academics, urban planners, and other relevant actors are also essential in this context. This will require relevant methods and tools for testing and projecting scenarios of coupled social-ecological system (CSES) behavior, changes, and feedbacks, in support of sustainable development of growing cities. This paper presents a CSES modeling approach that can provide such support, by coupling socio-economically driven land use changes and associated hydrological changes. The paper exemplifies and tests the applicability of this approach for a concrete case study with relevant data availability, the Tyresån catchment in Stockholm County, Sweden. Results show that model integration in the approach can reveal impacts of urbanization on hydrological and water resource, and the implications and feedbacks for urban societies and ecosystems. The CSES approach introduces new model challenges, but holds promise for improved model support towards sustainable urban development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zahra Kalantari
- Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, SE-106 91, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | | | - Jessica Page
- Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, SE-106 91, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Romain Goldenberg
- Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, SE-106 91, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jonas Olsson
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Sweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, SE-106 91, Stockholm, Sweden
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16
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Kalantari Z, Ferreira CSS, Koutsouris AJ, Ahlmer AK, Cerdà A, Destouni G. Assessing flood probability for transportation infrastructure based on catchment characteristics, sediment connectivity and remotely sensed soil moisture. Sci Total Environ 2019; 661:393-406. [PMID: 30677685 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2018] [Revised: 01/01/2019] [Accepted: 01/02/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Flooding may damage important transportation infrastructures, such as roads, railways and bridges, which need to be well planned and designed to be able to withstand current and possible future climate-driven increases in flood frequencies and magnitudes. This study develops a novel approach to predictive statistical modelling of the probability of flooding at major road-stream intersection sites, where water, sediment and debris can accumulate and cause failure of drainage facilities and associated road damages. Two areas in south-west Sweden, affected by severe floods in August 2014, are used in representative case studies for this development. A set of physical catchment-descriptors (PCDs), characterizing key aspects of topography, morphology, soil type, land use, hydrology (precipitation and soil moisture) and sediment connectivity in the water- and sediment-contributing catchments, are used for the predictive flood modelling. A main novel contribution to such modelling is to integrate the spatiotemporal characteristics of remotely-sensed soil moisture in indices of sediment connectivity (IC), thereby also allowing for investigation of the role of soil moisture in the flood probability for different road-stream intersections. The results suggest five categories of PCDs as especially important for flood probability quantification and identification of particularly flood-prone intersections along roads (railways, etc.) These include: channel slope at the road-stream intersection and average elevation, soil properties (mainly percentage of till), land use cover (mainly percentage of urban areas), and a sediment connectivity index that considers soil moisture in addition to morphology over the catchment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zahra Kalantari
- Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
| | | | - Alexander J Koutsouris
- Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Artemi Cerdà
- Soil Erosion and Degradation Research Group, Department of Geography, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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17
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Vigouroux G, Destouni G, Jönsson A, Cvetkovic V. A scalable dynamic characterisation approach for water quality management in semi-enclosed seas and archipelagos. Mar Pollut Bull 2019; 139:311-327. [PMID: 30686432 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.12.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2018] [Revised: 12/09/2018] [Accepted: 12/12/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
In semi-enclosed seas, eutrophication may affect both the coastal waters and the whole sea. We develop and test a modelling approach that can account for nutrient loads from land as well as for influences and feedbacks on water quality across the scales of a whole semi-enclosed sea and its coastal zones. We test its applicability in the example cases of the Baltic Sea and one of its local archipelagos, the Archipelago Sea. For the Baltic Sea scale, model validation shows good representation of surface water quality dynamics and a generally moderate model performance for deeper waters. For the Archipelago Sea, management scenario simulations show that successful sea measures may have the most important effects on coastal water quality. This highlights the need to consistently account for whole-sea water-quality dynamics and management effects, in addition to effects of land drivers, in modelling for characterisation and management of local water quality.
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Affiliation(s)
- G Vigouroux
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden; Resources, Energy and Infrastructure, Sustainability Assessment and Management, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Teknikringen 10B, Stockholm 100 44, Sweden.
| | - G Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm 106 91, Sweden.
| | - A Jönsson
- COWI AB, Solna Strandväg 78, Solna 171 54, Sweden.
| | - V Cvetkovic
- Resources, Energy and Infrastructure, Sustainability Assessment and Management, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Teknikringen 10B, Stockholm 100 44, Sweden.
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18
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Levi L, Cvetkovic V, Destouni G. Data-driven analysis of nutrient inputs and transfers through nested catchments. Sci Total Environ 2018; 610-611:482-494. [PMID: 28820979 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2017] [Revised: 07/31/2017] [Accepted: 08/01/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
A data-driven screening methodology is developed for estimating nutrient input and retention-delivery in catchments with measured water discharges and nutrient concentrations along the river network. The methodology is applied to the Sava River Catchment (SRC), a major transboundary catchment in southeast Europe, with seven monitoring stations along the main river, defining seven nested catchments and seven incremental subcatchments that are analysed and compared in this study. For the relatively large nested catchments (>40,000km2), characteristic regional values emerge for nutrient input per unit area of around 30T/yr/km2 for dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and 2T/yr/km2 for total phosphorus (TP). For the smaller nested catchments and incremental subcatchments, corresponding values fluctuate and indicate hotspot areas with total nutrient inputs of 158T/yr/km2 for DIN and 13T/yr/km2 for TP. The delivered fraction of total nutrient input mass (termed delivery factor) and associated nutrient loads per area are scale-dependent, exhibiting power-law decay with increasing catchment area, with exponents of around 0.2-0.3 for DIN and 0.3-0.5 for TP. For the largest of the nested catchments in the SRC, the delivery factor is around 0.08 for DIN and 0.03 for TP. Overall, the nutrient data for nested catchments within the SRC show consistency with previously reported data for multiple nested catchments within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin, identifying close nutrient relationships to driving hydro-climatic conditions (runoff for nutrient loads) and socio-economic conditions (population density and farmland share for nutrient concentrations).
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Affiliation(s)
- Lea Levi
- Department of Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering (SEED), Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Physical Geography and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Applied Hydraulics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Geodesy, University of Split, Split, Croatia.
| | - Vladimir Cvetkovic
- Department of Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering (SEED), Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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19
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Goldenberg R, Kalantari Z, Cvetkovic V, Mörtberg U, Deal B, Destouni G. Distinction, quantification and mapping of potential and realized supply-demand of flow-dependent ecosystem services. Sci Total Environ 2017; 593-594:599-609. [PMID: 28363174 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.130] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2016] [Revised: 03/14/2017] [Accepted: 03/14/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
This study addresses and conceptualizes the possible dependence of ecosystem services on prevailing air and/or water flow processes and conditions, and particularly on the trajectories and associated spatial reach of these flows in carrying services from supply to demand areas in the landscape. The present conceptualization considers and accounts for such flow-dependence in terms of potential and actually realized service supply and demand, which may generally differ and must therefore be distinguished due to and accounting for the prevailing conditions of service carrier flows. We here concretize and quantify such flow-dependence for a specific landscape case (the Stockholm region, Sweden) and for two examples of regulating ecosystem services: local climate regulation and storm water regulation. For these service and landscape examples, we identify, quantify and map key areas of potential and realized service supply and demand, based for the former (potential) on prevailing relatively static types of landscape conditions (such as land-cover/use, soil type and demographics), and for the latter (realized) on relevant carrier air and water flows. These first-order quantification examples constitute first steps towards further development of generally needed such flow-dependence assessments for various types of ecosystem services in different landscapes over the world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Romain Goldenberg
- Department of Physical Geography & Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Zahra Kalantari
- Department of Physical Geography & Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Vladimir Cvetkovic
- Division of Land and Water Resources, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, SE-10044 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Ulla Mörtberg
- Division of Land and Water Resources, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, SE-10044 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Brian Deal
- Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL-61820 Champaign, USA
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography & Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
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20
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Kalantari Z, Cavalli M, Cantone C, Crema S, Destouni G. Flood probability quantification for road infrastructure: Data-driven spatial-statistical approach and case study applications. Sci Total Environ 2017; 581-582:386-398. [PMID: 28062101 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.12.147] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2016] [Revised: 12/16/2016] [Accepted: 12/21/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Climate-driven increase in the frequency of extreme hydrological events is expected to impose greater strain on the built environment and major transport infrastructure, such as roads and railways. This study develops a data-driven spatial-statistical approach to quantifying and mapping the probability of flooding at critical road-stream intersection locations, where water flow and sediment transport may accumulate and cause serious road damage. The approach is based on novel integration of key watershed and road characteristics, including also measures of sediment connectivity. The approach is concretely applied to and quantified for two specific study case examples in southwest Sweden, with documented road flooding effects of recorded extreme rainfall. The novel contributions of this study in combining a sediment connectivity account with that of soil type, land use, spatial precipitation-runoff variability and road drainage in catchments, and in extending the connectivity measure use for different types of catchments, improve the accuracy of model results for road flood probability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zahra Kalantari
- Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Marco Cavalli
- Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, National Research Council, Padova, Italy.
| | - Carolina Cantone
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), SE-601 76 Norrköping, Sweden.
| | - Stefano Crema
- Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, National Research Council, Padova, Italy.
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
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Juston J, Lyon SW, Destouni G. Data-driven Nutrient-landscape Relationships across Regions and Scales. Water Environ Res 2016; 88:2023-2031. [PMID: 28661321 DOI: 10.2175/106143016x14504669768255] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Previous studies have identified relationships between nutrient exports and upstream conditions, but have often disconnected interpretations from hydrological flows and changes. Here, we investigated basic relationships between largely flow-independent nutrient concentrations and two key descriptors of upstream landscape and human activity: population density and arable land cover. Consistent data were gathered from previous studies of the Baltic Sea and Mississippi River basins. These data span wide ranges of subcatchment scales, hydroclimatic conditions, and landscape characteristics. In general, investigated relationships were stronger in the Baltic than in the Mississippi region and stronger for total nitrogen (TN) than total phosphorous (TP) concentrations. However, TN concentration was both highly and consistently correlated to arable land cover across all scales and both regions. These findings support that TN export from catchments is dictated principally by retention and slow release from subsurface legacy stores while export TP concentrations appear to be dictated more by faster particulate surface transport.
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Affiliation(s)
- John Juston
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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Augustsson A, Uddh Söderberg T, Jarsjö J, Åström M, Olofsson B, Balfors B, Destouni G. The risk of overestimating the risk-metal leaching to groundwater near contaminated glass waste deposits and exposure via drinking water. Sci Total Environ 2016; 566-567:1420-1431. [PMID: 27318517 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2016] [Revised: 05/26/2016] [Accepted: 06/02/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
This study investigates metal contamination patterns and exposure to Sb, As, Ba, Cd and Pb via intake of drinking water in a region in southeastern Sweden where the production of artistic glass has resulted in a large number of contaminated sites. Despite high total concentrations of metals in soil and groundwater at the glassworks sites properties, all drinking water samples from households with private wells, located at a 30-640m distance from a glassworks site, were below drinking water criteria from the WHO for Sb, As, Ba and Cd. A few drinking water samples showed concentrations of Pb above the WHO guideline, but As was the only element found in concentrations that could result in human exposure near toxicological reference values. An efficient retention of metals in the natural soil close to the source areas, which results in a moderate impact on local drinking water, is implied. Firstly, by the lack of significant difference in metal concentrations when comparing households located upstream and downstream of the main waste deposits, and secondly, by the lack of correlation between the metal concentration in drinking water and distance to the nearest glassworks site. However, elevated Pb and Cd concentrations in drinking water around glassworks sites when compared to regional groundwater indicate that diffuse contamination of the soils found outside the glassworks properties, and not only the glass waste landfills, may have a significant impact on groundwater quality. We further demonstrate that different mobilization patterns apply to different metals. Regarding the need to use reliable data to assess drinking water contamination and human exposure, we finally show that the conservative modelling approaches that are frequently used in routine risk assessments may result in exposure estimates many times higher than those based on measured concentrations in the drinking water that is actually being used for consumption.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Augustsson
- Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden.
| | - T Uddh Söderberg
- Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden
| | - J Jarsjö
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - M Åström
- Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden
| | - B Olofsson
- Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Sciences and Engineering, KTH, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - B Balfors
- Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Sciences and Engineering, KTH, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - G Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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Prieto C, Destouni G. Climate-Driven Phenological Change: Developing Robust Spatiotemporal Modeling and Projection Capability. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0141207. [PMID: 26545112 PMCID: PMC4636262 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0141207] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2015] [Accepted: 10/05/2015] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Our possibility to appropriately detect, interpret and respond to climate-driven phenological changes depends on our ability to model and predict the changes. This ability may be hampered by non-linearity in climate-phenological relations, and by spatiotemporal variability and scale mismatches of climate and phenological data. A modeling methodology capable of handling such complexities can be a powerful tool for phenological change projection. Here we develop such a methodology using citizen scientists' observations of first flight dates for orange tip butterflies (Anthocharis cardamines) in three areas extending along a steep climate gradient. The developed methodology links point data of first flight observations to calculated cumulative degree-days until first flight based on gridded temperature data. Using this methodology we identify and quantify a first flight model that is consistent across different regions, data support scales and assumptions of subgrid variability and observation bias. Model application to observed warming over the past 60 years demonstrates the model usefulness for assessment of climate-driven first flight change. The cross-regional consistency of the model implies predictive capability for future changes, and calls for further application and testing of analogous modeling approaches to other species, phenological variables and parts of the world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carmen Prieto
- Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- * E-mail:
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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Levi L, Jaramillo F, Andričević R, Destouni G. Hydroclimatic changes and drivers in the Sava River Catchment and comparison with Swedish catchments. Ambio 2015; 44:624-34. [PMID: 25753574 PMCID: PMC4591234 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-015-0641-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2014] [Revised: 08/25/2014] [Accepted: 02/11/2015] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
In this study, we investigate long-term hydroclimatic changes and their possible relation to regional changes in climate, land-use and water-use over the twentieth century in the transboundary Sava River Catchment (SRC) in South Eastern Europe. In a hydropower dominated part of the SRC, unlike in an unregulated part, we find increase in average annual evapotranspiration and decrease in temporal runoff variability, which are not readily explainable by observed concurrent climate change in temperature and precipitation and may be more related to landscape-internal change drivers. Among the latter investigated here, results indicate hydropower developments as most closely related to the found hydroclimatic shifts, consistent with previous such indications in studies of Swedish hydropower catchments. Overall, the present results have quantitatively framed the recent history and present state of hydroclimate in the SRC, of relevance for water resources in several countries and for a majority of their populations. This provides a useful basis for further assessment of possible future hydroclimatic changes, under different scenarios of climate change and land/water-use developments in the region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lea Levi
- Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering (SEED), Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Teknikringen 76, 100 44, Stockholm, Sweden.
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden.
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden.
- Department of Applied Hydraulics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Geodesy, University of Split, 21 000, Split, Croatia.
| | - Fernando Jaramillo
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden.
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | - Roko Andričević
- Department of Applied Hydraulics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Geodesy, University of Split, 21 000, Split, Croatia.
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden.
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden.
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Jaramillo F, Destouni G. Comment on "Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet". Science 2015; 348:1217. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa9629] [Citation(s) in RCA: 88] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2015] [Accepted: 04/14/2015] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
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27
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Bring A, Rogberg P, Destouni G. Variability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea. Ambio 2015; 44 Suppl 3:381-391. [PMID: 26022321 PMCID: PMC4447692 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-015-0657-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Changes to runoff due to climate change may influence management of nutrient loading to the sea. Assuming unchanged river nutrient concentrations, we evaluate the effects of changing runoff on commitments to nutrient reductions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. For several countries, climate projections point to large variability in load changes in relation to reduction targets. These changes either increase loads, making the target more difficult to reach, or decrease them, leading instead to a full achievement of the target. The impact of variability in climate projections varies with the size of the reduction target and is larger for countries with more limited commitments. In the end, a number of focused actions are needed to manage the effects of climate change on nutrient loads: reducing uncertainty in climate projections, deciding on frameworks to identify best performing models with respect to land surface hydrology, and increasing efforts at sustained monitoring of water flow changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arvid Bring
- />Water Systems Analysis Group, Institute for the Study of the Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire, 8 College Road, Durham, NH 03824 USA
| | - Peter Rogberg
- />Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- />Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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Törnqvist R, Jarsjö J, Thorslund J, Rao PSC, Basu NB, Destouni G. Mechanisms of basin-scale nitrogen load reductions under intensified irrigated agriculture. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0120015. [PMID: 25789866 PMCID: PMC4366109 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0120015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2014] [Accepted: 02/02/2015] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Irrigated agriculture can modify the cycling and transport of nitrogen (N), due to associated water diversions, water losses, and changes in transport flow-paths. We investigate dominant processes behind observed long-term changes in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations and loads of the extensive (465,000 km2) semi-arid Amu Darya River basin (ADRB) in Central Asia. We specifically considered a 40-year period (1960-2000) of large irrigation expansion, reduced river water flows, increased fertilizer application and net increase of N input into the soil-water system. Results showed that observed decreases in riverine DIN concentration near the Aral Sea outlet of ADRB primarily were due to increased recirculation of irrigation water, which extends the flow-path lengths and enhances N attenuation. The observed DIN concentrations matched a developed analytical relation between concentration attenuation and recirculation ratio, showing that a fourfold increase in basin-scale recirculation can increase DIN attenuation from 85 to 99%. Such effects have previously only been observed at small scales, in laboratory experiments and at individual agricultural plots. These results imply that increased recirculation can have contributed to observed increases in N attenuation in agriculturally dominated drainage basins in different parts of the world. Additionally, it can be important for basin scale attenuation of other pollutants, including phosphorous, metals and organic matter. A six-fold lower DIN export from ADRB during the period 1981-2000, compared to the period 1960-1980, was due to the combined result of drastic river flow reduction of almost 70%, and decreased DIN concentrations at the basin outlet. Several arid and semi-arid regions around the world are projected to undergo similar reductions in discharge as the ADRB due to climate change and agricultural intensification, and may therefore undergo comparable shifts in DIN export as shown here for the ADRB. For example, projected future increases of irrigation water withdrawals between 2005 and 2050 may decrease the DIN export from arid world regions by 40%.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecka Törnqvist
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jerker Jarsjö
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Josefin Thorslund
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - P. Suresh C. Rao
- School of Civil Engineering and Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette, West Lafayette, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Nandita B. Basu
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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Quin A, Jaramillo F, Destouni G. Dissecting the ecosystem service of large-scale pollutant retention: The role of wetlands and other landscape features. Ambio 2015; 44 Suppl 1:S127-37. [PMID: 25576287 PMCID: PMC4288994 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-014-0594-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Various features of a landscape contribute to the regulating ecosystem service of reducing waterborne pollutant loading to downstream environments. At local scales, wetlands have been shown to be effective in retaining pollutants. Here, we investigate the landscape-scale contribution to pollutant retention provided by multiple wetlands. We develop a general analytical model which shows that the retention contribution of wetlands and other landscape features is only significant if a large fraction of the total waterborne pollutant transport passes through them. Next, by means of a statistical analysis of official data, we quantify the nutrient retention contribution of wetlands for multiple sub-catchments in two Swedish Water Management Districts. We compare this with the retention contribution of two other landscape features: the waterborne transport distance and major lakes. The landscape-scale retention contribution of wetlands is undetectable; rather, the other two landscape features account for much of the total nutrient retention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew Quin
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Fernando Jaramillo
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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Abstract
Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucile Verrot
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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Strandmark A, Bring A, Cousins SAO, Destouni G, Kautsky H, Kolb G, de la Torre-Castro M, Hambäck PA. Climate change effects on the Baltic Sea borderland between land and sea. Ambio 2015; 44 Suppl 1:S28-38. [PMID: 25576278 PMCID: PMC4288993 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-014-0586-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Coastal habitats are situated on the border between land and sea, and ecosystem structure and functioning is influenced by both marine and terrestrial processes. Despite this, most scientific studies and monitoring are conducted either with a terrestrial or an aquatic focus. To address issues concerning climate change impacts in coastal areas, a cross-ecosystem approach is necessary. Since habitats along the Baltic coastlines vary in hydrology, natural geography, and ecology, climate change projections for Baltic shore ecosystems are bound to be highly speculative. Societal responses to climate change in the Baltic coastal ecosystems should have an ecosystem approach and match the biophysical realities of the Baltic Sea area. Knowledge about ecosystem processes and their responses to a changing climate should be integrated within the decision process, both locally and nationally, in order to increase the awareness of, and to prepare for climate change impacts in coastal areas of the Baltic Sea.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alma Strandmark
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Arvid Bring
- Water Systems Analysis Group, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire, 8 College Road, Durham, NH 03824 USA
| | - Sara A. O. Cousins
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Hans Kautsky
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Gundula Kolb
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Peter A. Hambäck
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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Nilsson LM, Destouni G, Berner J, Dudarev AA, Mulvad G, Odland JØ, Parkinson A, Tikhonov C, Rautio A, Evengård B. A call for urgent monitoring of food and water security based on relevant indicators for the Arctic. Ambio 2013; 42:816-22. [PMID: 23918411 PMCID: PMC3790131 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-013-0427-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2013] [Revised: 06/20/2013] [Accepted: 06/26/2013] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
This perspective paper argues for an urgent need to monitor a set of 12 concrete, measurable indicators of food and water security in the Arctic over time. Such a quantitative indicator approach may be viewed as representing a reductionist rather than a holistic perspective, but is nevertheless necessary for actually knowing what reality aspects to monitor in order to accurately understand, quantify, and be able to project critical changes to food and water security of both indigenous and non-indigenous people in the Arctic. More relevant indicators may be developed in the future, taking us further toward reconciliation between reductionist and holistic approaches to change assessment and understanding. However, the potential of such further development to improved holistic change assessment is not an argument not to urgently start to monitor and quantify the changes in food and water security indicators that are immediately available and adequate for the Arctic context.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lena Maria Nilsson
- Arctic Research Centre, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Nutritional Research, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, 901 85 Umeå, Sweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology and Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - James Berner
- Division of Community Health, Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, Anchorage, AK USA
| | - Alexey A. Dudarev
- Hygiene Department, Northwest Public Health Research Center, 4, 2-Sovetskaya Street, 191036 St. Petersburg, Russia
| | - Gert Mulvad
- Greenland Center for Health Research, University of Greenland, Postboks 1001, 3900 Nuuk, Greenland
| | - Jon Øyvind Odland
- Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Tromsø, 9019 Tromsö, Norway
| | - Alan Parkinson
- Arctic Investigations Program, US Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, Anchorage, AK 99516 USA
| | - Constantine Tikhonov
- Environmental Public Health Division, First Nations and Inuit Health Branch, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON Canada
| | - Arja Rautio
- Thule Institute, University of Oulu, P.O. Box 7300, Oulu, Finland
| | - Birgitta Evengård
- Arctic Research Centre, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Umeå University Hospital, 901 85 Umeå, Sweden
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Bosson E, Sabel U, Gustafsson LG, Sassner M, Destouni G. Influences of shifts in climate, landscape, and permafrost on terrestrial hydrology. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd016429] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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Gren IM, Destouni G. Does divergence of nutrient load measurements matter for successful mitigation of marine eutrophication? Ambio 2012; 41:151-160. [PMID: 22396095 PMCID: PMC3357834 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-011-0182-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2011] [Revised: 07/15/2011] [Accepted: 07/29/2011] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Successful implementation of an international nutrient abatement agreement, such as the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), requires consistent understanding of the baseline nutrient loads, and a perception of acceptable costs and fairness in targeted reductions of these base line loads. This article presents a general framework for identifying the implications of divergence between different nutrient load quantification approaches, with regard to both cost and fairness criteria outcomes, for the international agreement to decrease nutrient loads into the Baltic Sea as presented in the BSAP. The results indicate that even relatively small divergence in the nutrient load quantification translates into relatively large differences in abatement cost for different Baltic Sea countries. A robust result, irrespective of differences in nutrient load assessments, is a conflict between abatement cost effectiveness and fairness, with relatively poor countries facing heavy abatement cost burdens for cost-effective international load abatement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ing-Marie Gren
- Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7013, 750 07 Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
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Bring A, Destouni G. Relevance of hydro-climatic change projection and monitoring for assessment of water cycle changes in the Arctic. Ambio 2011; 40:361-9. [PMID: 21809779 PMCID: PMC3357737 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-010-0109-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2010] [Revised: 07/16/2010] [Accepted: 11/11/2010] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation changes. Direct observations further show systematically larger (smaller) runoff than precipitation increases (decreases). This result is partly attributable to uncertainties and systematic bias in precipitation observations, but still indicates that some of the observed increase in Arctic river runoff is due to water storage changes, for example melting permafrost and/or groundwater storage changes, within the drainage basins. Such causes of runoff change affect sea level, in addition to ocean salinity, and inland water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff. In contrast to this need, our results show that the density of Arctic runoff monitoring has become increasingly biased and less relevant by decreasing most and being lowest in river basins with the largest expected climatic changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arvid Bring
- Department of Physical Geography & Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
- Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography & Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
- Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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Affiliation(s)
- Shilpa M. Asokan
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology; Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University; Stockholm Sweden
| | - Jerker Jarsjö
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology; Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University; Stockholm Sweden
| | - Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology; Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University; Stockholm Sweden
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37
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Destouni G, Persson K, Prieto C, Jarsjö J. General quantification of catchment-scale nutrient and pollutant transport through the subsurface to surface and coastal waters. Environ Sci Technol 2010; 44:2048-55. [PMID: 20158209 DOI: 10.1021/es902338y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
This study develops a general quantification framework for consistent intermodel and intercatchment comparison of the nutrient and pollutant mass loading from multiple sources in a catchment area to downstream surface and coastal waters. The framework accounts for the wide spectrum of different transport pathways and travel times through the subsurface (soil, groundwater, sediment) and the linked surface (streams, lakes, wetlands) water systems of a catchment. The account is based on key flow partitioning and mass delivery fractions, which can be quantified differently by different flow and transport and reaction models. The framework application is exemplified for two Swedish catchment cases with regard to the transport of phosphorus and of a generic attenuating solute. The results show essential differences in model quantifications of transport pathways and temporal spreading, with important implications for our understanding of cause and effect in the catchment-scale nutrient and pollutant loading to downstream waters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, SE-106 91, Stockholm, Sweden.
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Abstract
The Energy Committee of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has in a series of projects gathered information and knowledge on renewable energy from various sources, both within and outside the academic world. In this article, we synthesize and summarize some of the main points on renewable energy from the various Energy Committee projects and the Committee's Energy 2050 symposium, regarding energy from water and wind, bioenergy, and solar energy. We further summarize the Energy Committee's scenario estimates of future renewable energy contributions to the global energy system, and other presentations given at the Energy 2050 symposium. In general, international coordination and investment in energy research and development is crucial to enable future reliance on renewable energy sources with minimal fossil fuel use.
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Affiliation(s)
- Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden.
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40
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Bishop K, Beven K, Destouni G, Abrahamsson K, Andersson L, Johnson RK, Rodhe J, Hjerdt N. Nature as the "natural" goal for water management: a conversation. Ambio 2009; 38:209-14. [PMID: 19739555 DOI: 10.1579/0044-7447-38.4.209] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
The goals for water-quality and ecosystem integrity are often defined relative to "natural" reference conditions in many water-management systems, including the European Union Water Framework Directive. This paper examines the difficulties created for water management by using "natural" as the goal. These difficulties are articulated from different perspectives in an informal (fictional) conversation that takes place after a workshop on reference conditions in water-resources management. The difficulties include defining the natural state and modeling how a system might be progressed toward the natural, as well as the feasibility and desirability of restoring a natural state. The paper also considers the appropriateness for developing countries to adopt the use of natural as the goal for water management. We conclude that failure to critically examine the complexities of having "natural" as the goal will compromise the ability to manage the issues that arise in real basins by not making the ambiguities associated with this "natural" goal explicit. This is unfortunate both for the western world that has embraced this model of "natural as the goal" and for the developing world in so far as they are encouraged to adopt this model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kevin Bishop
- Department of Environmental Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden.
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41
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Conley DJ, Bonsdorff E, Carstensen J, Destouni G, Gustafsson BG, Hansson LA, Rabalais NN, Voss M, Zillén L. Tackling hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: is engineering a solution? Environ Sci Technol 2009; 43:3407-11. [PMID: 19544832 DOI: 10.1021/es8027633] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
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42
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Conley DJ, Björck S, Bonsdorff E, Carstensen J, Destouni G, Gustafsson BG, Hietanen S, Kortekaas M, Kuosa H, Meier HEM, Müller-Karulis B, Nordberg K, Norkko A, Nürnberg G, Pitkänen H, Rabalais NN, Rosenberg R, Savchuk OP, Slomp CP, Voss M, Wulff F, Zillén L. Hypoxia-related processes in the Baltic Sea. Environ Sci Technol 2009; 43:3412-20. [PMID: 19544833 DOI: 10.1021/es802762a] [Citation(s) in RCA: 145] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Hypoxia, a growing worldwide problem, has been intermittently present in the modern Baltic Sea since its formation ca. 8000 cal. yr BP. However, both the spatial extent and intensity of hypoxia have increased with anthropogenic eutrophication due to nutrient inputs. Physical processes, which control stratification and the renewal of oxygen in bottom waters, are important constraints on the formation and maintenance of hypoxia. Climate controlled inflows of saline water from the North Sea through the Danish Straits is a critical controlling factor governing the spatial extent and duration of hypoxia. Hypoxia regulates the biogeochemical cycles of both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in the water column and sediments. Significant amounts of P are currently released from sediments, an order of magnitude larger than anthropogenic inputs. The Baltic Sea is unique for coastal marine ecosystems experiencing N losses in hypoxic waters below the halocline. Although benthic communities in the Baltic Sea are naturally constrained by salinity gradients, hypoxia has resulted in habitat loss over vast areas and the elimination of benthic fauna, and has severely disrupted benthic food webs. Nutrient load reductions are needed to reduce the extent, severity, and effects of hypoxia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel J Conley
- GeoBiosphere Science Centre, Lund University, SE-223 62 Lund, Sweden.
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Abstract
Environmental policies for water quality and ecosystem management do not commonly require explicit stochastic accounts of uncertainty and risk associated with the quantification and prediction of waterborne pollutant loads and abatement effects. In this study, we formulate and investigate a possible environmental policy that does require an explicit stochastic uncertainty account. We compare both the environmental and economic resource allocation performance of such an uncertainty-accounting environmental policy with that of deterministic, risk-prone and risk-averse environmental policies under a range of different hypothetical, yet still possible, scenarios. The comparison indicates that a stochastic uncertainty-accounting policy may perform better than deterministic policies over a range of different scenarios. Even in the absence of reliable site-specific data, reported literature values appear to be useful for such a stochastic account of uncertainty.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christian Baresel
- Department of Land and Water Resources Engineering, Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvägen 32, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden.
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Lindgren GA, Destouni G, Darracq A. Inland subsurface water system role for coastal nitrogen load dynamics and abatement responses. Environ Sci Technol 2007; 41:2159-64. [PMID: 17438757 DOI: 10.1021/es062535j] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
We simulate and analyze long-term dynamics of coastal nitrogen (N) loading and the inland source changes and processes that may have determined its development over the past 60-year period and may govern its possible future responses to various N source management scenarios. With regard to processes, the results show that average basin-scale N delivery fractions to the coast may not be representative of the coastal impacts of either diffuse or point inland sources. The effects of inland source changes may be greatly redistributed in space-time and delayed by slow N transport and mass transfer processes in the subsurface water system of coastal catchments. Extrapolation of current N transport-attenuation conditions for quantification of future abatement effects may therefore be misleading if the extrapolation models do not realistically represent delayed long-term influences of slow subsurface processes. With regard to policy, the results show that and why national Swedish and international Baltic Sea region policies for coastal N load abatement may be difficult or impossible to achieve by inland source abatement only. Large mitigation of both point and diffuse sources may be necessary to achieve targeted coastal N load reductions fast and maintain them also in the long term.
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Affiliation(s)
- Georg A Lindgren
- Environmental Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 75007 Uppsala.
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Destouni G, Lindgren GA, Gren IM. Effects of inland nitrogen transport and attenuation modeling on coastal nitrogen load abatement. Environ Sci Technol 2006; 40:6208-14. [PMID: 17120543 DOI: 10.1021/es060025j] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Modeling of the spatial distribution of nitrogen transport and attenuation from various inland sources and along different hydrological pathways to coastal waters is needed for relevant decisions on effective allocation of measures for coastal nitrogen load abatement. We identify, classify, and quantify uncertainties associated with main discrepancies between spatial process representations in different catchment-scale nitrogen transport-attenuation models. The results show important model differences, indicating scientific disagreement on the realistic spatial process understanding, representation, and quantification in nitrogen transport-attenuation modeling. By further developing solutions for economic optimization of spatially differentiated nitrogen source abatement in coastal catchments, we find this disagreement to considerably affect the economic efficiency of coastal nitrogen load reduction. It may also lead to stakeholder mistrust and conflict and needs to be recognized and handled in environmental policy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Georgia Destouni
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
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Abstract
We present an updated, harmonized hydrologic base map of the entire Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB), including 634 subdrainage basins. The updated map has a level of detail approximately 5 to 10 times higher than the current standard and includes various spatial-aggregation possibilities of relevance for water management. All 634 subdrainage basins and their various spatial aggregations are characterized in terms of population, land cover, drainage density, and slope. We identify, quantify, and characterize, in particular, drainage basins that are unmonitored with regard to the combination of water-flow and nutrient-concentration measurements needed to monitor coastal nutrient and pollutant loading. Results indicate that out of a total BSDB population of 84 239 000 in 2002, 24% lived in unmonitored coastal drainage basins that cover 13% of the total BSDB area. A more detailed analysis of Swedish catchments indicates that Sweden has a particularly large proportion of unmonitored coastal catchment areas (20% of the total Swedish area) with high population pressures (55% of the total Swedish population), when compared with average conditions for the whole BSDB. In general, the investigated characteristics of unmonitored coastal basins vary and differ largely from those in adjacent monitored drainage basins within the BSDB.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fredrik Hannerz
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden.
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Baresel C, Destouni G, Gren IM. The influence of metal source uncertainty on cost-effective allocation of mine water pollution abatement in catchments. J Environ Manage 2006; 78:138-48. [PMID: 16095805 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.03.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2004] [Revised: 02/11/2005] [Accepted: 03/02/2005] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
In mine water pollution abatement, it is commonly assumed that known mine waste sites are the major pollution sources, thus neglecting the possibility of significant contribution from other old and diffuse sources within a catchment. We investigate the influence of different types of pollution source uncertainty on cost-effective allocation of abatement measures for mine water pollution. A catchment-scale cost-minimization model is developed and applied to the catchment of the river Dalälven, Sweden, in order to exemplify important effects of such source uncertainty. Results indicate that, if the pollution distribution between point and diffuse sources is partly unknown, downstream abatement measures, such as constructed wetlands, at given compliance boundaries are often cost-effective. If downstream abatement measures are not practically feasible, the pollution source distribution between point and diffuse mine water sources is critical for cost-effective solutions to abatement measure allocation in catchments. In contrast, cost-effective solutions are relatively insensitive to uncertainty in total pollutant discharge from mine water sources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christian Baresel
- Department of Land and Water Resources Engineering, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Brinellvägen 32, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden.
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Baresel C, Destouni G. Novel quantification of coupled natural and cross-sectoral water and nutrient/pollutant flows for environmental management. Environ Sci Technol 2005; 39:6182-90. [PMID: 16173579 DOI: 10.1021/es050522k] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Human water use and anthropogenic water pollution and ecosystem deterioration have increased so much that it is now a strategic challenge to maximize benefits from various possible water uses, while ensuring that basic human needs are met and the environment is protected. We propose and develop a novel use of input-output flow analysis as a relatively simple, compact and powerful tool for quantification of coupled natural and cross-sectoral flows of water, nutrients, and pollutants in catchments. The tool quantifies implications of various environmental regulation and management scenarios for both natural water systems and engineered-economic systems and sectors that use and impact natural waters for meeting human needs. Specific case study application to water and nitrogen flows in the Swedish Norrström drainage basin indicates considerable nitrogen load contributions to surface and coastal waters from slow groundwater flow paths and legacies of accumulated nitrogen in subsurface and immobile water pools. This implies that effective nitrogen load abatement cannot focus only on active sources but must also include downstream measures, which can capture and abate nitrogen/pollutant loading from different types of known and yet unknown point and diffuse sources within associated catchments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christian Baresel
- Department of Land and Water Resources Engineering, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Brinellvägen 32, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden.
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Darracq A, Destouni G. In-stream nitrogen attenuation: model-aggregation effects and implications for coastal nitrogen impacts. Environ Sci Technol 2005; 39:3716-22. [PMID: 15952377 DOI: 10.1021/es049740o] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/02/2023]
Abstract
Eutrophication problems in coastal and marine waters worldwide emphasize the significance, for the scientific community as well as the whole society, of relevant quantification of catchment-scale nitrogen transport from land to coast. Different catchment-scale nitrogen budget models use, and base management recommendations on, quite different process representations of and spatial resolution approaches to in-stream nitrogen attenuation. We compare three different spatial resolution approaches to modeling nitrogen loss rates in streams of the same drainage basin. Results show that commonly used spatial model aggregation may lead to artificial decrease of calibrated nitrogen loss rates with increasing stream depth (or flow), in addition to any such dependences that may prevail in independently measurable reality. Coastal nitrogen impact predictions and practical management implications of large-scale model aggregation of nitrogen attenuation rates may further differ considerably from those based on rates from finer resolution modeling or independent measurements.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amélie Darracq
- Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, SE-106 91, Stockholm, Sweden.
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Darracq A, Greffe F, Hannerz F, Destouni G, Cvetkovic V. Nutrient transport scenarios in a changing Stockholm and Mälaren valley region, Sweden. Water Sci Technol 2005; 51:31-38. [PMID: 15850171] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Norrström catchment, west of Stockholm, covers most of the Mälaren valley. Provision of drinking water from Lake Mälaren is an absolute precondition for continued growth in the region. Stockholm County's population is expected to increase by 600,000 people before 2030. Current climate change predictions anticipate significant temperature and precipitation increases. We implement the PolFlow model embedded in PCRaster for quantifying water and substances fluxes on the catchment scale over a 30-year time horizon. We formulate scenarios for changes in water quality and quantity due to climate change and population development. Results indicate a mild impact from climate change on surface flow rates but substantial effects on sub-surface residence times. Population development slightly affects nutrients loads. Using source apportionment and sensitivity analysis, we identify a number of critical parameters/processes to be further studied, in order for future results to be more reliable and usable in a water resources management context.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Darracq
- Department of Land and Water Resources Engineering, Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvagen 32, SE-100 44, Stockholm, Sweden.
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