Global patterns of extreme drought-induced loss in land primary production: Identifying ecological extremes from rain-use efficiency

Exploring the comprehensive link between climatic factors and vegetation productivity in China

Understanding the influence of climatic factors on vegetation dynamics and cumulative effects is critical for global sustainable development. However, the response of vegetation to climate and the underlying mechanisms in different climatic zones remains unclear. In this study, we analyzed the response of vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) to climatic factors and the cumulative effects across various vegetation types and climatic zones, utilizing data on precipitation (Pr), temperature (Ta), and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results showed that: (1) GPP showed significant differences among the seven climatic zones, with the highest value observed in zone VII, reaching 1860.07 gC·m- 2, and the lowest in zone I, at 126.03 gC·m- 2. (2) GPP was significantly and positively correlated with temperature in climatic zones I, IV, V, and VI and with precipitation in climatic zones I, II, and IV. Additionally, a significant positive correlated was found between SPEI and GPP in climatic zones I, II, and IV. (3) Drought exerted a cumulative effect on GPP in 45.10% of the regions within China, with an average cumulative duration of 5 months. These effects persisted for 6-8 months in zones I, II, and VII, and for 2-4 months in zones III, IV and VI. Among different vegetation types, forests experienced longest cumulative effect time of 6 months, followed by grasslands (5 months), croplands (4 months), and shrublands (4 months). The cumulative time scale decreased with increasing annual SPEI. The varying responses and accumulation of GPP to drought among different vegetation types in various climatic zones underscore the complexity of vegetation-climate interactions the response and accumulation of GPP to drought.

Rain use efficiency gradients across Australian ecosystems

Rain use efficiency (RUE) quantifies the ecosystem's capacity to use precipitation water to assimilate atmospheric CO2. The spatial distribution of RUE and its drivers across the Australian continent is largely unknown. This knowledge gap limits our understanding of the possible contribution of Australian ecosystems to global carbon assimilation. This study investigates the spatial distribution of RUE across diverse terrestrial ecosystems in Australia. The results show that RUE ranges from 0.43 (1st percentile) to 3.10 (99th percentile) g C m-2 mm-1 with a continental mean of 1.19 g C m-2 mm-1. About 68 % of the spatiotemporal variability of RUE can be explained by a multiple linear regression model primarily contributed by climatic predictors. Benchmarked by the model estimation, drainage-diverging/converging landscapes tend to have reduced/increased RUE. The model also revealed the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration on RUE. The continental mean RUE would increase by between 29.3 and 64.8 % by the end of this century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in which the CO2 concentration is projected to double from the present level. This increase in projected RUE is attributed to the assumed greening effect of increasing CO2 concentration, which does not consider the saturation of CO2 fertilisation effect and the warming effect on increasing wildfire occurrence. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, RUE would decrease by about 7 %. This study provides baseline RUEs of various ecosystems in Australia for investigating the impacts of human interferences and climate change on the capacity of Australian vegetation to assimilate atmospheric CO2 under given precipitation.

JF, Calvo DA, Carbognani M, Cardoni A, Carlyle CN, Castillo-Garcia M, Chang SX, Chieppa J, Cianciaruso MV, Cohen O, Cordeiro AL, Cusack DF, Dahlke S, Daleo P, D'Antonio CM, Dietterich LH, S. Doherty T, Dubbert M, Ebeling A, Eisenhauer N, Fischer FM, Forte TGW, Gebauer T, Gozalo B, Greenville AC, Guidoni-Martins KG, Hannusch HJ, Vatsø Haugum S, Hautier Y, Hefting M, Henry HAL, Hoss D, Ingrisch J, Iribarne O, Isbell F, Johnson Y, Jordan S, Kelly EF, Kimmel K, Kreyling J, Kröel-Dulay G, Kröpfl A, Kübert A, Kulmatiski A, Lamb EG, Larsen KS, Larson J, Lawson J, Leder CV, Linstädter A, Liu J, Liu S, Lodge AG, Longo G, Loydi A, Luan J, Curtis Lubbe F, Macfarlane C, Mackie-Haas K, Malyshev AV, Maturano-Ruiz A, Merchant T, Metcalfe DB, Mori AS, Mudongo E, Newman GS, Nielsen UN, Nimmo D, Niu Y, Nobre P, O'Connor RC, Ogaya R, Oñatibia GR, Orbán I, Osborne B, Otfinowski R, Pärtel M, Penuelas J, Peri PL, Peter G, Petraglia A, Picon-Cochard C, Pillar VD, Piñeiro-Guerra JM, Ploughe LW, Plowes RM, Portales-Reyes C, Prober SM, Pueyo Y, Reed SC, Ritchie EG, Rodríguez DA, Rogers WE, Roscher C, Sánchez AM, Santos BA, Cecilia Scarfó M, Seabloom EW, Shi B, Souza L, Stampfli A, Standish RJ, Sternberg M, Sun W, Sünnemann M, Tedder M, Thorvaldsen P, Tian D, Tielbörger K, Valdecantos A, van den Brink L, Vandvik V, Vankoughnett MR, Guri Velle L, Wang C, Wang Y, Wardle GM, Werner C, Wei C, Wiehl G, Williams JL, Wolf AA, Zeiter M, Zhang F, Zhu J, Zong N, Zuo X. Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events-the most common duration of drought-globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function-aboveground net primary production (ANPP)-was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

Diverse responses of gross primary production and leaf area index to drought on the Mongolian Plateau

Drought is a crucial factor regulating vegetation growth on the Mongolian Plateau (MP). Previous studies of drought effects on the MP have mainly concentrated on drought characterization, while the response of vegetation to drought remains unclear. To close this knowledge gap, we examined the response of MP vegetation to drought in terms of gross primary production (GPP) and leaf area index (LAI) from 1982 to 2018. Our findings show that intra-seasonally the frequency of drought occurrence in autumn had a greater impact on GPP (relative importance over 70 %), while the intensity of drought was more influential for LAI (relative importance approximately 60 %). Inter-seasonally, summer droughts had the most pronounced effect on vegetation (with median standardized anomalies of -0.72 for GPP and -0.4 for LAI, respectively). Additionally, we found that meteorological drought was more consistent with atmospheric aridity (high vapor pressure deficit) than soil drought (low soil moisture). This study advances knowledge of vegetation's susceptibility to climate extremes and improves the precision of predicting ecosystem response to climate change.

Water use efficiency across scales: from genes to landscapes

Water scarcity is already set to be one of the main issues of the 21st century, because of competing needs between civil, industrial, and agricultural use. Agriculture is currently the largest user of water, but its share is bound to decrease as societies develop and clearly it needs to become more water efficient. Improving water use efficiency (WUE) at the plant level is important, but translating this at the farm/landscape level presents considerable challenges. As we move up from the scale of cells, organs, and plants to more integrated scales such as plots, fields, farm systems, and landscapes, other factors such as trade-offs need to be considered to try to improve WUE. These include choices of crop variety/species, farm management practices, landscape design, infrastructure development, and ecosystem functions, where human decisions matter. This review is a cross-disciplinary attempt to analyse approaches to addressing WUE at these different scales, including definitions of the metrics of analysis and consideration of trade-offs. The equations we present in this perspectives paper use similar metrics across scales to make them easier to connect and are developed to highlight which levers, at different scales, can improve WUE. We also refer to models operating at these different scales to assess WUE. While our entry point is plants and crops, we scale up the analysis of WUE to farm systems and landscapes.

Temporal dynamics of ecosystem, inherent, and underlying water use efficiencies of forests, grasslands, and croplands and their responses to climate change

BACKGROUND

Understanding temporal trends and varying responses of water use efficiency (WUE) to environmental changes of diverse ecosystems is key to predicting vegetation growth. WUE dynamics of major ecosystem types (e.g., forest, grassland and cropland) have been studied using various WUE definitions/metrics, but a comparative study on WUE dynamics and their driving forces among different ecosystem types using multiple WUE metrics is lacking. We used eddy covariance measurements for 42 FLUXNET2015 sites (396 site years) from 1997 to 2014, as well as three commonly used WUE metrics (i.e., ecosystem, inherent, and underlying WUE) to investigate the commonalities and differences in WUE trends and driving factors among deciduous broadleaf forests (DBFs), evergreen needleleaf forests (ENFs), grasslands, and croplands.

RESULTS

Our results showed that the temporal trends of WUE were not statistically significant at 73.8% of the forest, grassland and cropland sites, and none of the three WUE metrics exhibited better performance than the others in quantifying WUE. Meanwhile, the trends observed for the three WUE metrics were not significantly different among forest, grassland and cropland ecosystems. In addition, WUE was mainly driven by atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at sites with significant WUE trends, and by vapor pressure deficit (VPD) at sites without significant trends (except cropland).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings revealed the commonalities and differences in the application of three WUE metrics in disparate ecosystems, and further highlighted the important effect of VPD on WUE change.

Dynamic Response and Adaptation of Grassland Ecosystems in the Three-River Headwaters Region under Changing Environment: A Review

The Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR) is crucial to the sustainable development of China and Southeast Asia. The sustainability of grassland ecosystems in the region has been seriously challenged in recent years. This paper reviewed the changes in the grasslands of the TRHR and their responses to climate change and human activities. The review showed that accurate monitoring of grassland ecological information is the basis for effective management. Although alpine grassland coverage and the above-ground biomass of the alpine grassland have generally increased in the region over the past 30 years, the degradation has not been fundamentally curbed. Grassland degradation substantially reduced topsoil nutrients and affected their distribution, deteriorated soil moisture conditions, and aggravated soil erosion. Grassland degradation led to loss of productivity and species diversity, and this is already harming the well-being of pastoralists. The "warm and wet" trend of the climate promoted the restoration of alpine grasslands, but widespread overgrazing is considered as one of the main reasons for grassland degradation, and related differences still exist. Since 2000, the grassland restoration policy has achieved fruitful results, but the formulation of the policy still needs to integrate market logic effectively and strengthen the understanding of the relationship between ecological protection and cultural protection. In addition, appropriate human intervention mechanisms are urgently needed due to the uncertainty of future climate change. For mildly and moderately degraded grassland, traditional methods are applicable. However, the severely degraded "black soil beach" needs to be restored by artificial seeding, and the stability of the plant-soil system needs to be emphasized to establish a relatively stable community to prevent secondary degradation.

A new two-decade (2001-2019) high-resolution agricultural primary productivity dataset for India

The present study describes a new dataset that estimates seasonally integrated agricultural gross primary productivity (GPP). Several models are being used to estimate GPP using remote sensing (RS) for regional and global studies. Using biophysical and climatic variables (MODIS, SBSS, ECWMF reanalysis etc.) and validated by crop statistics, the present study provides a new dataset of agricultural GPP for monsoon and winter seasons in India for two decades (2001-2019). This dataset (GPPCY-IN) is based on the light use efficiency (LUE) principle and applied a dynamic LUE for each year and season to capture the seasonal variations more efficiently. An additional dataset (NGPPCY-IN) is also derived from crop production statistics and RS GPP to translate district-level statistics at the pixel level. Along with validation with crop statistics, the derived dataset was also compared with in situ GPP estimations. This dataset will be useful for many applications and has been created for estimating integrated yield loss by taking GPP as a proxy compared to resource and time-consuming field-based methods for crop insurance.

Global exacerbation of episodic local vegetation greenness decline since the 21st century

Extreme climate-induced vegetation greenness decline significantly affects the stability of ecosystem function. Extreme climate events have occurred frequently in the recent 20 years and the possibility of climate anomalies is forecasted to increase in the future. But currently, the spatial and temporal response of episodic local vegetation decline to climate extremes at a global scale are still unclear. In this study, the detrend NDVI data was utilized as the indicator of vegetation growth, and a spatiotemporally contiguous recognition method was proposed to identify episodic large-scale vegetation decline events globally, subsequently, the spatiotemporal characteristics of these vegetation decline events and their interannual variation trends during 2000-2019 were explored. The results showed that (1) the spatiotemporally contiguous recognition method proposed by this paper was proven to be accurate in identifying the hotspot regions of large-scale vegetation decline. A total of 243 large-scale vegetation decline events were recognized globally during 2000-2019 drived by the method. (2) The global hotspots of large-scale vegetation decline were mainly distributed in the low-elevation areas at middle and low latitudes, especially at 15°S ~ 35°S, 15°N and 35°N, where covered north-western Africa, the Sahel, the Middle East, Central Asia, western India, the border of north-eastern China and Mongolia, western and south-central United States, northern Mexico, southern Africa, Australia, and southern and north-eastern South America. (3) Recent global episodic local vegetation decline has increased significantly since 2000, at the rate of 180,000 km² of vegetation decline areas increasing per year. Particular, the severity of vegetation decline grew significantly since 2010 at the regions where covered the latitudes of approximately 15°N, 30°N and 65°N. Additionally, the severity of vegetation decline ranging from 20°S to 30°S weakened significantly since 2010. These findings were expected to provide the valuable scientific understanding for global vegetation decline and ecosystem responses to frequent climate extremes.

What happens after drought ends: synthesizing terms and definitions

Drought is intensifying globally with climate change, creating an urgency to understand ecosystem response to drought both during and after these events end to limit loss of ecosystem functioning. The literature is replete with studies of how ecosystems respond during drought, yet there are far fewer studies focused on ecosystem dynamics after drought ends. Furthermore, while the terms used to describe drought can be variable and inconsistent, so can those that describe ecosystem responses following drought. With this review, we sought to evaluate and create clear definitions of the terms that ecologists use to describe post-drought responses. We found that legacy effects, resilience and recovery were used most commonly with respect to post-drought ecosystem responses, but the definitions used to describe these terms were variable. Based on our review of the literature, we propose a framework for generalizing ecosystem responses after drought ends, which we refer to as 'the post-drought period'. We suggest that future papers need to clearly describe characteristics of the imposed drought, and we encourage authors to use the term post-drought period as a general term that encompasses responses after drought ends and use other terms as more specific descriptors of responses during the post-drought period.

Distribution of ecological restoration projects associated with land use and land cover change in China and their ecological impacts

China is prone to broad land degradation and thus has been implementing ecological restoration projects (ERPs) since the reform and opening up. The extent of ERPs, as well as the varied planting efforts including tree gain projects (TGPs), grass gain projects (GGPs), and shrub gain projects (SGPs), have remained largely unknown. In addition, the mixed success of ERPs on preventing soil erosion and improving biodiversity is not well known. Based on a land use and land cover (LULC) product and a trajectory-based change detection approach, we successfully generated the first national map of ERPs associated with land use and land cover change (LUCC) and its three associated subcategories. Then, we applied the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to evaluate the dynamics of sediment retention and habitat quality. In addition, we explored the heterogeneous patterns for the ecological impacts of ERPs. Our results suggested that during the past 40 years, a total ERP area of 9.54 × 10⁶ hm² was observed nationwide, mainly in the northwestern provinces of China. Of the three ERP subcategories, TGPs accounted for the largest area (48.55%), followed by GGPs (47.50%) and SGPs (3.96%). The national average sediment retention experienced a significant increase, whereas the national average habitat quality experienced a significant decline. ERP-driven increases in habitat quality were offset partly by the LUCCs induced by economic development policies in some regions, especially in northeast China. The simultaneous effect of construction land expansion and ERP implementation on sediment retention made the synchronization between ERP implementation and sediment retention improvement insignificant. We also suggested the optimal direction for ERP implementation.

Exploring the Role of Contiguous Farmland Cultivation and Adoption of No-Tillage Technology in Improving Transferees’ Income Structure: Evidence from China

Seasonal alternations of extreme weather such as continuous drought and rare rainstorms significantly influence farmers’ adoption of agricultural technologies. Compared with traditional tillage, no-tillage technology has more advantages to cope with extreme weather. It is hypothesized that the cultivation of contiguous farmland is still minimal in spite of the transference of farmland on a large scale in China, which ultimately halts the adoption of no-tillage technology and influences the income of households. The current study used 793 farmland transferees’ data from Shaanxi, Gansu, and Ningxia provinces of China to explore this phenomenon empirically. By employing the endogenous switching regression model, the study revealed that contiguous farmland significantly promotes the adoption of no-tillage technology and positively influences households’ agricultural and non-agricultural income. Meanwhile, the moderating effect of the stability of farmland rental contracts is explored. Further, it was also found that education level, organizational participation, relationship networks, and information acquisition channels influence the income of transferees who opt for no-tillage technology. The study further revealed that if a transferee who opts for no-tillage technology switches to traditional technology, their agricultural and non-agricultural income will decrease by 0.2893 and 1.6979 ten thousand yuan (RMB), respectively. In contrast, if a transferee who opts for traditional technology then switches to adopt no-tillage technology, their agricultural and non-agricultural income will increase by 0.1919 and 1.3044 ten thousand yuan (RMB), respectively. Conclusively, the current study’s empirical findings offer policymakers possible guidelines to devise strategies and encourage transferees to opt for no-tillage applications to increase their families’ income.

Global evidence on the asymmetric response of gross primary productivity to interannual precipitation changes

Understanding gross primary productivity (GPP) response to precipitation (PPT) changes is essential for predicting land carbon uptake under increasing PPT variability and extremes. Previous studies found that ecosystem GPP may have an asymmetric response to PPT changes, leading to the inconsistency of GPP gains in wet years compared to GPP declines in dry years. However, it is unclear how the asymmetric responses vary among vegetation types and under different PPT variabilities. This study evaluated the global patterns of asymmetries of GPP response to different PPT changes using two state-of-science global GPP datasets. The result shows that under mild PPT changes (|ΔPPT| ≤ 25%), grasslands, savannas, shrublands, and tundra show positive asymmetric responses (i.e., larger GPP gains in wet years than GPP losses in dry years), while other vegetation types show negative asymmetric responses (i.e., larger GPP losses in dry years than GPP gains in wet years). Conversely, all vegetation types show negative GPP asymmetric responses to moderate (25% < |ΔPPT| ≤ 50%) and extreme (|ΔPPT| > 50%) PPT changes. Thus, we propose a new non-linear asymmetric GPP-PPT model that incorporates three modes with regards to vegetation types. Meanwhile, we found that the spatial patterns of asymmetry were mainly driven by PPT amount and variability. Stronger and negative asymmetries were found in areas with smaller PPT amount and variability, while positive asymmetries were found in areas with higher PPT variability. These findings promote our understanding of carbon dynamics under increased PPT variability and extremes and provide new insights for land models to better predict future carbon uptake and its feedback to climate change.

Legislative and functional aspects of different metrics used for ozone risk assessment to forests

Surface ozone (O₃) is a threat to forests by decreasing photosynthesis and, consequently, influencing the strength of land carbon sink. However, due to the lack of continuous surface O₃ measurements, observational-based assessments of O₃ impacts on forests are largely missing at hemispheric to global scales. Currently, some metrics are used for regulatory purposes by governments or national agencies to protect forests against the negative impacts of ozone: in particular, both Europe and United States (US) makes use of two different exposure-based metrics, i.e. AOT40 and W126, respectively. However, because of some limitations in these metrics, a new standard is under consideration by the European Union (EU) to replace the current exposure metric. We analyse here the different air quality standards set or proposed for use in Europe and in the US to protect forests from O₃ and to evaluate their spatial and temporal consistency while assessing their effectiveness in protecting northern-hemisphere forests. Then, we compare their results with the information obtained from a complex land surface model (ORCHIDEE). We find that present O₃ uptake decreases gross primary production (GPP) in 37.7% of the NH forested area of northern hemisphere with a mean loss of 2.4% year^-1. We show how the proposed US (W126) and the currently used European (AOT40) air quality standards substantially overestimate the extension of potential vulnerable regions, predicting that 46% and 61% of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) forested area are at risk of O₃ pollution. Conversely, the new proposed European standard (POD1) identifies lower extension of vulnerability regions (39.6%).

The spatiotemporal variations and propagation of droughts in Plateau Mountains of China

Drought incidents and the pressure on water resources have increased in recent years, which has threatened sustainable development. Recently, research has been conducted on drought propagation. However, few studies have investigated the characteristics and mechanisms of drought propagation in plateau mountainous regions with complex topography, which limits the efforts to mitigate drought. We used the Longchuan River Basin (LRB) in Southwest China as a case study to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts and the process of drought propagation in plateau mountainous regions. Our results demonstrated that: (1) the variation in the intensity, frequency, and coverage of droughts indicated that meteorological droughts and hydrological droughts were increasingly serious, while agricultural droughts were eased from 2000 to 2015; (2) the propagation time between different types of droughts was approximately 2 months; and (3) the propagation sequences of droughts varied by altitude; in particular, agricultural droughts propagated to hydrological droughts at higher altitudes, and the opposite occurred at lower altitudes. We concluded that elevation plays a critical role in the time-space differentiation of drought propagation in plateau mountains. More attention should be paid to the spatial differentiation of drought propagation based on land use under different topographic conditions. The results of this study can provide a new perspective for future drought propagation studies.

Evaluation of Ecological Stability in Semi-Arid Open-Pit Coal Mining Area Based on Structure and Function Coupling during 2002–2017

Open-pit coal mining plays an important role in supporting national economic development; however, it has caused ecological problems and even seriously impacted regional ecological stability. Given the importance of maintaining ecological stability in semi-arid coal mining areas, this study used a coupling coordination degree approach based on the structural and functional state transition model (SFSTM) to evaluate the spatio–temporal variation of ecological stability from 2002 to 2017 by using MODIS and Landsat datasets in the semi-arid open-pit coal mining area. Besides, random points were created for different ecological stability levels (containing natural areas, coal mining areas, and reclamation areas) and segment linear regression was conducted to determine the structural change threshold for negative state transitions based on mining and positive state transitions based on reclamation. Furthermore, the impact factors of ecological stability were analyzed. Results showed that ecological stability fluctuated significantly over 16 years, showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. It was found that precipitation and temperature were the key natural factors affecting ecological stability, and mining activities constituted the dominant factor. The average perturbation distances to ecological stability from mining activities in the west, southwest, and east mining groups were 7500, 5500, and 8000 m, respectively. SFSTM is appliable to the coal mining ecosystem. Quantitative models of ecological stability response can help resolve ambiguity about management efficacy and the ecological stability results facilitate iterative updating of knowledge by using monitoring data from coal mining areas. Moreover, the proposed ecological structural threshold provides a useful early warning tool, which can aid in the reduction of ecosystem uncertainty and avoid reverse transformations of the positive state in the coal mining areas.

Would the obtainable gross primary productivity (GPP) products stand up? A critical assessment of 45 global GPP products

Gross primary productivity (GPP) is a vital variable of the global carbon cycle, but the quantification of global GPP is subject to significant uncertainty due to the lack of direct observations at a global scale. Here, we evaluated and compared 45 GPP products in terms of their applicability to different vegetation types at various spatiotemporal scales. The results show that 44 GPP products and obsGPP (Model Tree Ensemble GPP derived from observations and named obsGPP) have similar global patterns with correlation coefficients greater than 0.8 except for NGT, where GOSIF, RS, and BESS are prominent. GPP products have the greatest variation in Suriname, with a mean 75th and 25th percentile difference value of 0.4748 (normalized), and we recommend RS, SDGVM and LPJ-wsl as they provide GPP estimates close to the average GPP. In terms of seasonal estimations, considerable disagreement occurs among the GPP products in winter, with a range from 118.76 to 314.95 gC/m²/season, among which JULES has the closest GPP value to the average GPP estimation. For studies concerning vegetation types preference is given to the LUE average GPP. The 45 GPP products are more consistent on grasslands but, have obvious differences for savannas. All GPP products have their own specific spatiotemporal scales, such as global or national scales or different seasons and different vegetation types (forest, grasslands, etc.). This study provides guidelines for selecting GPP products.

A meta-analysis of responses in floral traits and flower-visitor interactions to water deficit

Alterations in water availability and drought events as predicted by climate change scenarios will increasingly impact natural communities with effects already emerging at present. Water deficit leads to increasing physiological stress in plants, likely affecting floral development and causing changes in floral morphology, nectar and pollen production or scent. Understanding how these floral traits are altered by water deficit is necessary to predict changes in plant-pollinator interactions and how communities are impacted in the future. Here we employ a meta-analysis approach to synthesize the current evidence of experimental water deficit on floral traits and plant-pollinator interactions. Furthermore, we explore experimental factors potentially increasing heterogeneity between studies and provide ideas how to enhance comparability between studies. In the end, we highlight future directions and knowledge gaps for floral traits and plant-pollinator interactions under water deficit. Our analysis showed consistent decreases in floral size, number of flowers and nectar volume to reduced water availability. Other floral traits such as the start of flowering or herkogamy showed no consistent pattern. This indicates that effects of reduced water availability differ between specific traits that are potentially involved in different functions such as pollinator attraction or efficiency. We found no general decreasing visitation rates with water deficit for flower-visitor interactions. Furthermore, the comparison of available studies suggests that increased reporting of plant stress severity and including more hydraulic and physiological measurements will improve the comparability across experiments and aid a more mechanistic understanding of plant-pollinator interactions under altered environmental conditions. Overall, our results show that water deficit has the potential to strongly affect plant-pollinator interactions via changes in specific floral traits. Linking these changes to pollination services and pollinator performance is one crucial step for understanding how changing water availability and drought events under climate change will alter plant and pollinator communities.

Global positive gross primary productivity extremes and climate contributions during 1982-2016

Gross primary production (GPP) quantifies the photosynthetic uptake of carbon by the terrestrial ecosystem. Positive GPP extremes represent the potential capacity of the terrestrial ecosystem to uptake carbon dioxide. Studying the positive GPP extreme is vital for the global carbon cycle and mitigation of global warming. With increasing climate extreme events, many kinds of research focus on studying negative GPP and the negative impact of climatic extremes on GPP. There is still a lack of research on positive GPP extremes and whether climatic extremes could be beneficial to global carbon uptake. In this study, we used daily Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) to simulate GPP of the global terrestrial ecosystem during 1982-2016 and combined TRENDY models to detect positive GPP extremes and investigate the effects of climate extremes on GPP. We found the results of the TRENDY models have large differences in some areas of the globe, and the BEPS model driven by remote sensing data could be more suitable for simulating the long-term time series of global terrestrial GPP. Compared to other plant functional types, grasslands contributed the most to positive GPP extremes, accounting for approximately 41.6% (TRENDY) and 34.8% (BEPS) of the global positive GPP extremes. The probabilities of positive GPP extremes caused by positive precipitation extremes were significantly higher than those caused by temperature and radiation in most areas of the globe, indicating that sufficient precipitation (not a flood) would boost the carbon uptake ability of the global terrestrial ecosystem to form positive GPP extremes. On the contrary, the partial correlation coefficients between temperature and GPP were negative in most areas of globe, suggesting that global warming will not be conducive to carbon uptake of the terrestrial ecosystem. This study may provide new knowledge on the global positive GPP extremes.

Seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions

Increasing frequencies of droughts require proactive preparedness, particularly in semi-arid regions. As forecasting of such hydrometeorological extremes several months ahead allows for necessary climate proofing, we assess the potential economic value of the seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 for decision making in water management. For seven drought-prone regions analyzed in America, Africa, and Asia, the relative frequency of drought months significantly increased from 10 to 30% between 1981 and 2018. We demonstrate that seasonal forecast-based action for droughts achieves potential economic savings up to 70% of those from optimal early action. For very warm months and droughts, savings of at least 20% occur even for forecast horizons of several months. Our in-depth analysis for the Upper-Atbara dam in Sudan reveals avoidable losses of 16 Mio US$ in one example year for early-action based drought reservoir operation. These findings stress the advantage and necessity of considering seasonal forecasts in hydrological decision making.

The direct and indirect effects of extreme climate events on insects

Extreme climate events are predicted to increase in the future, which will have significant effects on insect biodiversity. Research into this area has been rapidly expanding, but knowledge gaps still exist. We conducted a review of the literature to provide a synthesis of extreme climate events on insects and identify future areas of research. In our review, we asked the following questions: 1) What are the direct and indirect mechanisms that extreme climate events affect individual insects? 2) What are the effects of extreme climate events on insect populations and demography? 3) What are the implications of the extreme climate events effects on insect communities? Drought was among the most frequently described type of extreme climate event affecting insects, as well as the effects of temperature extremes and extreme temperature variation. Our review explores the factors that determine the sensitivity or resilience to climate extremes for individuals, populations, and communities. We also identify areas of future research to better understand the role of extreme climate events on insects including effects on non-trophic interactions, alteration of population dynamics, and mediation of the functional the trait set of communities. Many insect species are under threat from global change and extreme climate events are a contributing factor. Biologists and policy makers should consider the role of extreme events in their work to mitigate the loss of biodiversity and delivery of ecosystem services by insects.

The Spatial-Temporal Variation Characteristics of Natural Vegetation Drought in the Yangtze River Source Region, China

In the context of climate change, ecosystem in Yangtze River Source Region (YRSR) is under threat from severe droughts. This study introduced a new natural vegetation drought index, standardized supply-demand water index (SSDI), and identified natural vegetation drought events and parameters (e.g., duration, severity, peak, and coverage area) based on run theory. Then the drought-prone regions were investigated via 2-dimensional joint copula. The results indicate that (1) compared with traditional meteorological drought index, the SSDI is reliable and can reflect the comprehensive characteristics of the ecological drought information more easily and effectively; (2) the YRSR had witnessed the most severe drought episodes in the periods of late-1970s, mid-1980s, and mid-1990s, but the SSDI showed a wetting trend since the mid-2000s. Additionally, droughts in the Southern YRSR were relatively more severe with longer drought duration; (3) in most areas of Togton River Basin and Dam River Basin, the severe ecological drought events occurred more frequently; (4) drought duration and severity in the YRSR were more susceptible to temperature when the temperature rise was above 1.0 °C. The average drought duration and severity increased by 20.7% and 32.6% with a temperature rise of 1 °C. Investigating and evaluating drought characteristics, causes, and drought index effectiveness provide essential information for balanced water resource allocation, utilization, and drought prevention. Understanding these spatial-temporal characteristics of drought and return period was useful for drought risk assessment and sustainable development of water resources.

Plant traits related to precipitation sensitivity of species and communities in semiarid shortgrass prairie

Understanding how plant communities respond to temporal patterns of precipitation in water-limited ecosystems is necessary to predict interannual variation and trends in ecosystem properties, including forage production, biogeochemical cycling, and biodiversity. In North American shortgrass prairie, we measured plant abundance, functional traits related to growth rate and drought tolerance, and aboveground net primary productivity to identify: species-level responsiveness to precipitation (precipitation sensitivity S_spp ) across functional groups; S_spp relationships to continuous plant traits; and whether continuous trait-S_spp relationships scaled to the community level. Across 32 plant species, we found strong bivariate relationships of both leaf dry matter content (LDMC) and leaf osmotic potential Ψ_osm with S_spp . Yet, LDMC and specific leaf area were retained in the lowest Akaike information criterion multiple regression model, explaining 59% of S_spp . Most relationships between continuous traits and S_spp scaled to the community level but were often contingent on the presence/absence of particular species and/or land management at a site. Thus, plant communities in shortgrass prairie may shift towards slower growing, more stress-resistant species in drought years and/or chronically drier climate. These findings highlight the importance of both leaf economic and drought tolerance traits in determining species and community responses to altered precipitation.

Can climate change transform non-toxic sediments into toxic soils?

Our work addresses a neglected aspect of heavy metal (HM) pollution of sediments in small floodplain reservoirs. Very little is known about this type of water bodies, in contrast to oxbow lakes or old river beds. The study examines the spatial horizontal distribution of HM and the effect of texture, organic carbon (OC) content, morphometric and location features on HM concentrations. Moreover, the data from the assessment of sediment toxicity were analysed with respect to recent years' droughts to estimate the potential toxicity of sediments as soils. The statistical analyses showed that the texture and the OC content had a significant impact on the HM concentrations. Fine-grained and OC-rich sediments exhibited higher HM pollution. Only one morphometric/location factor was shown to affect HM levels in sediments - the angle between the reservoir axis and the riverbed. The angle value affected the texture and, consequently, the HM content: with a rising angle the share of the coarse-grained fraction increased leading to a decrease in the HM concentration. The spatial horizontal HM distribution did not show statistically significant results, nonetheless, HM content was found to rise along with the distance from the initial part of reservoir. The toxicity levels were not exceeded in sediments, however, the evaluation of the material as soil showed that, according to European Union guidelines, the content of at least one HM was toxic in 80% of the samples. Contaminated floodplain reservoirs should be regarded as a double threat to riverine ecosystems. On the one hand, they are one of the main non-point sources of river valley pollution; on the other hand, given the drying up of reservoirs, sediments become soils and the soil-bound heavy metals become more toxic to the environment.

Precipitation controls seed bank size and its role in alpine meadow community regeneration with increasing altitude

The Tibetan Plateau has undergone significant climate warming in recent decades, and precipitation has also become increasingly variable. Much research has explored the effects of climate change on vegetation on this plateau. As potential vegetation buried in the soil, the soil seed bank is an important resource for ecosystem restoration and resilience. However, almost no studies have explored the effects of climate change on seed banks and the mechanisms of these effects. We used an altitudinal gradient to represent a decrease in temperature and collected soil seed bank samples from 27 alpine meadows (3,158-4,002 m) along this gradient. A structural equation model was used to explore the direct effects of mean annual precipitation (MAP) and mean annual temperature (MAT) on the soil seed bank and their indirect effects through aboveground vegetation and soil environmental factors. The species richness and abundance of the aboveground vegetation varied little along the altitudinal gradient, while the species richness and density of the seed bank decreased. The similarity between the seed bank and aboveground vegetation decreased with altitude; specifically, it decreased with MAP but was not related to MAT. The increase in MAP with increasing altitude directly decreased the species richness and density of the seed bank, while the increase in MAP and decrease in MAT with increasing altitude indirectly increased and decreased the species richness of the seed bank, respectively, by directly increasing and decreasing the species richness of the plant community. The size of the soil seed bank declined with increasing altitude. Increases in precipitation directly decreased the species richness and density and indirectly decreased the species richness of the seed bank with increasing elevation. The role of the seed bank in aboveground plant community regeneration decreases with increasing altitude, and this process is controlled by precipitation but not temperature.

Rapid recovery of ecosystem function following extreme drought in a South African savanna grassland

Climatic extremes, such as severe drought, are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. Thus, identifying mechanisms of resilience is critical to predicting the vulnerability of ecosystems. An exceptional drought (<first percentile) impacted much of southern Africa during the 2015 and 2016 growing seasons, including the site of a long-term fire experiment in Kruger National Park, South Africa. Prior to the drought, experimental fire frequencies (annual, triennial, and unburned) created savanna grassland plant communities that differed in composition and function, providing a unique opportunity to assess ecosystem resilience mechanisms under different fire regimes. Surprisingly, aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) recovered fully in all fire frequencies the year after this exceptional drought. In burned sites, resilience was due mostly to annual forb ANPP compensating for reduced grass ANPP. In unburned sites, resilience of total and grass ANPP was due to subdominant annual and perennial grass species facilitating recovery in ANPP after mortality of other common grasses. This was possible because of high evenness among grass species in unburned sites predrought. These findings highlight the importance of both functional diversity and within-functional group evenness as mechanisms of ecosystem resilience to extreme drought.

Precipitation amount and event size interact to reduce ecosystem functioning during dry years in a mesic grassland

Ongoing intensification of the hydrological cycle is altering rainfall regimes by increasing the frequency of extreme wet and dry years and the size of individual rainfall events. Despite long-standing recognition of the importance of precipitation amount and variability for most terrestrial ecosystem processes, we lack understanding of their interactive effects on ecosystem functioning. We quantified this interaction in native grassland by experimentally eliminating temporal variability in growing season rainfall over a wide range of precipitation amounts, from extreme wet to dry conditions. We contrasted the rain use efficiency (RUE) of above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) under conditions of experimentally reduced versus naturally high rainfall variability using a 32-year precipitation-ANPP dataset from the same site as our experiment. We found that increased growing season rainfall variability can reduce RUE and thus ecosystem functioning by as much as 42% during dry years, but that such impacts weaken as years become wetter. During low precipitation years, RUE is lowest when rainfall event sizes are relatively large, and when a larger proportion of total rainfall is derived from large events. Thus, a shift towards precipitation regimes dominated by fewer but larger rainfall events, already documented over much of the globe, can be expected to reduce the functioning of mesic ecosystems primarily during drought, when ecosystem processes are already compromised by low water availability.

How ecologists define drought, and why we should do better

Drought, widely studied as an important driver of ecosystem dynamics, is predicted to increase in frequency and severity globally. To study drought, ecologists must define or at least operationalize what constitutes a drought. How this is accomplished in practice is unclear, particularly given that climatologists have long struggled to agree on definitions of drought, beyond general variants of "an abnormal deficiency of water." We conducted a literature review of ecological drought studies (564 papers) to assess how ecologists describe and study drought. We found that ecologists characterize drought in a wide variety of ways (reduced precipitation, low soil moisture, reduced streamflow, etc.), but relatively few publications (~32%) explicitly define what are, and are not, drought conditions. More troubling, a surprising number of papers (~30%) simply equated "dry conditions" with "drought" and provided little characterization of the drought conditions studied. For a subset of these, we calculated Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index values for the reported drought periods. We found that while almost 90% of the studies were conducted under conditions quantifiable as slightly to extremely drier than average, ~50% were within the range of normal climatic variability. We conclude that the current state of the ecological drought literature hinders synthesis and our ability to draw broad ecological inferences because drought is often declared but is not explicitly defined or well characterized. We suggest that future drought publications provide at least one of the following: (a) the climatic context of the drought period based on long-term records; (b) standardized climatic index values; (c) published metrics from drought-monitoring organizations; (d) a quantitative definition of what the authors consider to be drought conditions for their system. With more detailed and consistent quantification of drought conditions, comparisons among studies can be more rigorous, increasing our understanding of the ecological effects of drought.

Contrasting Performance of the Remotely-Derived GPP Products over Different Climate Zones across China

Precise quantification of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) has been recognized as one of the most important components in understanding the carbon balance between the biosphere and the atmosphere. In recent years, although many large-scale GPP estimates from satellite data and ecosystem models have been generated, few attempts have been made to compare the different GPP products at national scales, particularly for various climate zones. In this study, two of the most widely-used GPP datasets were systematically compared over the eight climate zones across China’s terrestrial ecosystems from 2001 to 2015, which included the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP and the breathing Earth system simulator (BESS) GPP products. Additionally, the coarse (0.05o) GPP estimates from the vegetation photosynthesis model (VPM) at the same time scale were used for auxiliary analysis with the two products. Both MODIS and BESS products exhibited a decreasing trend from the southeast region to the northwest inland. The largest GPP was found in the tropical humid region with 5.49 g C m−2 d−1 and 5.07 g C m−2 d−1 for MODIS and BESS, respectively, while the lowest GPP was distributed in the warm temperate arid region, midtemperate semiarid region and plateau zone. Meanwhile, the work confirmed that all these GPP products showed apparent seasonality with the peaks in the summertime. However, large differences were found in the interannual variations across the three GPP products over different climate regions. Generally, the BESS GPP agreed better than the MODIS GPP when compared to the seasonal and interannual variations of VPM GPP. Furthermore, the spatial correlation analysis between terrestrial GPP and the climatic factors, including temperature and precipitation, indicated that natural rainfall dominated the variability in GPP of Northern China, such as the midtemperate semiarid region, while temperature was a key controlling factor in the Southern China and the Tibet Plateau area.

Reduced Carbon Dioxide Sink and Methane Source under Extreme Drought Condition in an Alpine Peatland

Potential changes in both the intensity and frequency of extreme drought events are vital aspects of regional climate change that can alter the distribution and dynamics of water availability and subsequently affect carbon cycles at the ecosystem level. The effects of extreme drought events on the carbon budget of peatland in the Zoige plateau and its response mechanisms were studied using an in-field controlled experimental method. The results indicated that the peatland ecosystem of the Zoige plateau functioned as a carbon sink while under the control (CK) or extreme drought (D) treatment throughout the entire growing season. Maximum fluxes of methane (CH4) emissions and the weakest carbon sink activity from this ecosystem were in the early growth stage, the most powerful carbon sink activity was during the peak growth stage, while the absorption sink activity of carbon dioxide (CO2) and CH4 was present during the senescence stage. Extreme drought reduced the gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Re) of the peatland ecosystem by 14.5% and 12.6%, respectively (p < 0.05) and the net ability to store carbon was reduced by 11.3%. Overall, the GPP was highly sensitive to extreme drought. Moreover, extreme drought significantly reduced the CH4 fluxes of the ecosystem and even changed the peatland from a CH4 emission source to a CH4 sink. Subsequent to drought treatment, extreme drought was also shown to have a carry-over effect on the carbon budget of this ecosystem. Soil water content and soil temperature were the main driving factors of carbon budget change in the peatland of the Zoige plateau, but with the increase in soil depth, these driving forces were decreased. The findings indicated that frequent extreme drought events in the future might reduce the net carbon sink function of peatland areas, with an especially strong influence on CO2.

Changes of Grassland Rain Use Efficiency and NDVI in Northwestern China from 1982 to 2013 and Its Response to Climate Change

The grasslands in arid and semi-arid regions rely heavily on the use of rain, thus, improving rain use efficiency (RUE) is essential for securing sustainable development of grassland ecosystems in these areas with limited rainfall. In this study, the spatial and temporal variabilities of RUE for grassland ecosystems over Northwestern China during 1982–2013 were analyzed using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation data. Results showed that: (1) Although grassland area has decreased gradually over the past 30 years, the NDVI in most areas showed that the vegetation was gradually restored; (2) The trends of RUE increased in the east of Northwestern China and decreased in the west of Northwestern China. However, the trends of RUE for the high-coverage grasslands (vs. low-coverage grassland) increased (decreased) significantly over the past 30 years. (3) The RUE for the grasslands was positively correlated with air temperature, while it was negatively correlated with the change of annual mean precipitation in northwestern China. Moreover, the obvious RUE increasing trends were found in the vegetation restoration areas, while the RUE decreasing trends appeared in the vegetation degradation areas. This study will be helpful for understanding the impacts of climate change on securing the sustainable development of grassland ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions.