Grassland sensitivity to drought is related to functional composition across East Asia and North America

Plant traits can be helpful for understanding grassland ecosystem responses to climate extremes, such as severe drought. However, intercontinental comparisons of how drought affects plant functional traits and ecosystem functioning are rare. The Extreme Drought in Grasslands experiment (EDGE) was established across the major grassland types in East Asia and North America (six sites on each continent) to measure variability in grassland ecosystem sensitivity to extreme, prolonged drought. At all sites, we quantified community-weighted mean functional composition and functional diversity of two leaf economic traits, specific leaf area and leaf nitrogen content, in response to drought. We found that experimental drought significantly increased community-weighted means of specific leaf area and leaf nitrogen content at all North American sites and at the wetter East Asian sites, but drought decreased community-weighted means of these traits at moderate to dry East Asian sites. Drought significantly decreased functional richness but increased functional evenness and dispersion at most East Asian and North American sites. Ecosystem drought sensitivity (percentage reduction in aboveground net primary productivity) positively correlated with community-weighted means of specific leaf area and leaf nitrogen content and negatively correlated with functional diversity (i.e., richness) on an intercontinental scale, but results differed within regions. These findings highlight both broad generalities but also unique responses to drought of community-weighted trait means as well as their functional diversity across grassland ecosystems.

Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events-the most common duration of drought-globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function-aboveground net primary production (ANPP)-was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

Signatures of autumn deluges revealed during spring drought in a semi-arid grassland

Increases in extremely large precipitation events (deluges) and shifts in seasonal patterns of water availability with climate change will both have important consequences for ecosystem function, particularly in water-limited regions. While previous work in the semi-arid shortgrass steppe of northeastern Colorado has demonstrated this ecosystem's strong sensitivity to growing season deluges, our understanding of ecosystem responses to deluges during the dormant season is limited. Here, we imposed experimental 100 mm deluges (~ 30% of mean annual precipitation) in either September or October in a native C4-dominated shortgrass steppe ecosystem to evaluate the impact of this post-growing season shift in water availability during the autumn and the following growing season. Soil moisture for both deluge treatments remained elevated compared with ambient levels through April as spring precipitation was atypically low. Despite overall low levels of productivity with spring drought, these deluges from the previous autumn increased aboveground net primary production (ANPP), primarily due to increases with C4 grasses. C3 ANPP was also enhanced, largely due to an increase in the annual C3 grass, Vulpia octoflora, in the October deluge treatment. While spring precipitation has historically been the primary determinant of ecosystem function in this ecosystem, this combination of two climate extremes-an extremely wet autumn followed by a naturally-occurring spring drought-revealed the potential for meaningful carryover effects from autumn precipitation. With climate change increasing the likelihood of extremes during all seasons, experiments which create novel climatic conditions can provide new insight into the dynamics of ecosystem functioning in the future.

Accounting for herbaceous communities in process-based models will advance our understanding of "grassy" ecosystems

Grassland and other herbaceous communities cover significant portions of Earth's terrestrial surface and provide many critical services, such as carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, and food production. Forecasts of global change impacts on these services will require predictive tools, such as process-based dynamic vegetation models. Yet, model representation of herbaceous communities and ecosystems lags substantially behind that of tree communities and forests. The limited representation of herbaceous communities within models arises from two important knowledge gaps: first, our empirical understanding of the principles governing herbaceous vegetation dynamics is either incomplete or does not provide mechanistic information necessary to drive herbaceous community processes with models; second, current model structure and parameterization of grass and other herbaceous plant functional types limits the ability of models to predict outcomes of competition and growth for herbaceous vegetation. In this review, we provide direction for addressing these gaps by: (1) presenting a brief history of how vegetation dynamics have been developed and incorporated into earth system models, (2) reporting on a model simulation activity to evaluate current model capability to represent herbaceous vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function, and (3) detailing several ecological properties and phenomena that should be a focus for both empiricists and modelers to improve representation of herbaceous vegetation in models. Together, empiricists and modelers can improve representation of herbaceous ecosystem processes within models. In so doing, we will greatly enhance our ability to forecast future states of the earth system, which is of high importance given the rapid rate of environmental change on our planet.

Effects of intra-annual precipitation patterns on grassland productivity moderated by the dominant species phenology

Phenology and productivity are important functional indicators of grassland ecosystems. However, our understanding of how intra-annual precipitation patterns affect plant phenology and productivity in grasslands is still limited. Here, we conducted a two-year precipitation manipulation experiment to explore the responses of plant phenology and productivity to intra-annual precipitation patterns at the community and dominant species levels in a temperate grassland. We found that increased early growing season precipitation enhanced the above-ground biomass of the dominant rhizome grass, Leymus chinensis, by advancing its flowering date, while increased late growing season precipitation increased the above-ground biomass of the dominant bunchgrass, Stipa grandis, by delaying senescence. The complementary effects in phenology and biomass of the dominant species, L. chinensis and S. grandis, maintained stable dynamics of the community above-ground biomass under intra-annual precipitation pattern variations. Our results highlight the critical role that intra-annual precipitation and soil moisture patterns play in the phenology of temperate grasslands. By understanding the response of phenology to intra-annual precipitation patterns, we can more accurately predict the productivity of temperate grasslands under future climate change.

The detection and attribution of extreme reductions in vegetation growth across the global land surface

Negative extreme anomalies in vegetation growth (NEGs) usually indicate severely impaired ecosystem services. These NEGs can result from diverse natural and anthropogenic causes, especially climate extremes (CEs). However, the relationship between NEGs and many types of CEs remains largely unknown at regional and global scales. Here, with satellite-derived vegetation index data and supporting tree-ring chronologies, we identify periods of NEGs from 1981 to 2015 across the global land surface. We find 70% of these NEGs are attributable to five types of CEs and their combinations, with compound CEs generally more detrimental than individual ones. More importantly, we find that dominant CEs for NEGs vary by biome and region. Specifically, cold and/or wet extremes dominate NEGs in temperate mountains and high latitudes, whereas soil drought and related compound extremes are primarily responsible for NEGs in wet tropical, arid and semi-arid regions. Key characteristics (e.g., the frequency, intensity and duration of CEs, and the vulnerability of vegetation) that determine the dominance of CEs are also region- and biome-dependent. For example, in the wet tropics, dominant individual CEs have both higher intensity and longer duration than non-dominant ones. However, in the dry tropics and some temperate regions, a longer CE duration is more important than higher intensity. Our work provides the first global accounting of the attribution of NEGs to diverse climatic extremes. Our analysis has important implications for developing climate-specific disaster prevention and mitigation plans among different regions of the globe in a changing climate.

Responses of a semiarid grassland to recurrent drought are linked to community functional composition

Recurrent droughts are an inevitable consequence of climate change, yet how grasslands respond to such events is unclear. We conducted a 6-year rainfall manipulation experiment in a semiarid grassland that consisted of an initial 2-year drought (2015-2016), followed by a recovery period (2017-2018) and, finally, a second 2-year drought (2019-2020). In each year, we estimated aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), species richness, community-weighted mean (CWM) plant traits, and several indices of functional diversity. The initial drought led to reduced ANPP, which was primarily driven by limited growth of forbs in the first year and grasses in the second year. Total ANPP completely recovered as the rapid recovery of grass productivity compensated for the slow recovery of forb productivity. The subsequent drought led to a greater reduction in total ANPP than the initial drought due to the greater decline of both grass and forb productivity. The structural equation models revealed that soil moisture influenced ANPP responses directly during the initial drought, and indirectly during the subsequent drought by lowering functional diversity, which resulted in reduced total ANPP. Additionally, ANPP was positively influenced by CWM plant height and leaf nitrogen during the recovery period and recurrent drought, respectively. Overall, the greater impact of the second drought on ecosystem function than the initial drought, as well as the underlying differential mechanism, underscores the need for an understanding of how increased drought frequency may alter semiarid grassland functioning.

Traits that distinguish dominant species across aridity gradients differ from those that respond to soil moisture

Many plant traits respond to changes in water availability and might be useful for understanding ecosystem properties such as net primary production (NPP). This is especially evident in grasslands where NPP is water-limited and primarily determined by the traits of dominant species. We measured root and shoot morphology, leaf hydraulic traits, and NPP of four dominant North American prairie grasses in response to four levels of soil moisture in a greenhouse experiment. We expected that traits of species from drier regions would be more responsive to reduced water availability and that this would make these species more resistant to low soil moisture than species from wetter regions. All four species grew taller, produced more biomass, and increased total root length in wetter treatments. Each species reduced its leaf turgor loss point (TLP) in drier conditions, but only two species (one xeric, one mesic) maintained leaf water potential above TLP. We identified a suite of traits that clearly distinguished species from one another, but, surprisingly, these traits were relatively unresponsive to reduced soil moisture. Specifically, more xeric species produced thinner roots with higher specific root length and had a lower root mass fraction. This suggest that root traits are critical for distinguishing species from one another but might not respond strongly to changing water availability, though this warrants further investigation in the field. Overall, we found that NPP of these dominant grass species responded similarly to varying levels of soil moisture despite differences in species morphology, physiology, and habitat of origin.

Multiple global change drivers show independent, not interactive effects: a long-term case study in tallgrass prairie

Ecosystems are faced with an onslaught of co-occurring global change drivers. While frequently studied independently, the effects of multiple global change drivers have the potential to be additive, antagonistic, or synergistic. Global warming, for example, may intensify the effects of more variable precipitation regimes with warmer temperatures increasing evapotranspiration and thereby amplifying the effect of already dry soils. Here, we present the long-term effects (11 years) of altered precipitation patterns (increased intra-annual variability in the growing season) and warming (1 °C year-round) on plant community composition and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), a key measure of ecosystem functioning in mesic tallgrass prairie. Based on past results, we expected that increased precipitation variability and warming would have additive effects on both community composition and ANPP. Increased precipitation variability altered plant community composition and increased richness, with no effect on ANPP. In contrast, warming decreased ANPP via reduction in grass stems and biomass but had no effect on the plant community. Contrary to expectations, across all measured variables, precipitation and warming treatments had no interactive effects. While treatment interactions did not occur, each treatment did individually impact a different component of the ecosystem (i.e., community vs. function). Thus, different aspects of the ecosystem may be sensitive to different global change drivers in mesic grassland ecosystems.

Differential responses of grassland community nonstructural carbohydrate to experimental drought along a natural aridity gradient

Plant nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC) can reflect community and ecosystem responses to environmental changes such as water availability. Climate change is predicted to increase aridity and the frequency of extreme drought events in grasslands, but it is unclear how community-scale NSC will respond to drought or how such responses may vary along aridity gradients. We experimentally imposed a 4-year drought in six grasslands along a natural aridity gradient and measured the community-weighted mean of leaf soluble sugar (SS_CWM) and total leaf NSC (NSC_CWM) concentrations. We observed a bell-shape relationship across this gradient, where SS_CWM and total NSC_CWM concentrations were lowest at intermediate aridity, with this pattern driven primarily by species turnover. Drought manipulation increased both SS_CWM and total NSC_CWM concentrations at one moderately arid grassland but decreased total NSC_CWM concentrations at one moist site. These differential responses to experimental drought depended on the relative role of species turnover and intraspecific variation in driving shifts in SS_CWM and total NSC_CWM concentrations. Specifically, the synergistic effects of species turnover and intraspecific variation drove the responses of leaf NSC concentrations to drought, while their opposing effects diminished the effect of drought on plant SS_CWM and total NSC_CWM concentrations. Plant resource strategies were more acquisitive, via higher chlorophyll_CWM concentration, to offset reduced NSC_CWM concentrations and net aboveground primary productivity (ANPP) with increasing aridity at more mesic sites, but more conservative (i.e., decreased plant height_CWM and ANPP) to reduce NSC consumption at drier sites. The relationship between water availability and NSC_CWM concentrations may contribute to community drought resistance and improve plant viability and adaptation strategies to a changing climate.

Compound hydroclimatic extremes in a semi-arid grassland: Drought, deluge, and the carbon cycle

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events including droughts and large precipitation events or "deluges." While many studies have focused on the ecological impacts of individual events (e.g., a heat wave), there is growing recognition that when extreme events co-occur as compound extremes, (e.g., a heatwave during a drought), the additive effects on ecosystems are often greater than either extreme alone. In this study, we assessed a unique type of extreme-a contrasting compound extreme-where the extremes may have offsetting, rather than additive ecological effects, by examining how a deluge during a drought impacts productivity and carbon cycling in a semi-arid grassland. The experiment consisted of four treatments: a control (average precipitation), an extreme drought (<5th percentile), an extreme drought interrupted by a single deluge (>95th percentile), or an extreme drought interrupted by the equivalent amount of precipitation added in several smaller events. We highlight three key results. First, extreme drought resulted in early senescence, reduced carbon uptake, and a decline in net primary productivity relative to the control treatment. Second, the deluge imposed during extreme drought stimulated carbon fluxes and plant growth well above the levels of both the control and the drought treatment with several additional smaller rainfall events, emphasizing the importance of precipitation amount, event size, and timing. Third, while the deluge's positive effects on carbon fluxes and plant growth persisted for 1 month, the deluge did not completely offset the negative effects of extreme drought on end-of-season productivity. Thus, in the case of these contrasting hydroclimatic extremes, a deluge during a drought can stimulate temporally dynamic ecosystem processes (e.g., net ecosystem exchange) while only partially compensating for reductions in ecosystem functions over longer time scales (e.g., aboveground net primary productivity).

Shifting seasonal patterns of water availability: ecosystem responses to an unappreciated dimension of climate change

Seasonal patterns of water availability can differ dramatically among ecosystems, with well-known consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. Less appreciated is that climate change can shift the seasonality of water availability (e.g. to wetter springs, drier summers), resulting in both subtle and profound ecological impacts. Here we (1) review evidence that the seasonal availability of water is being altered in ecosystems worldwide, (2) explore several mechanisms potentially driving these changes, and (3) highlight the breadth of ecological consequences resulting from shifts in the seasonality of water availability. We conclude that seasonal patterns of water availability are changing globally, but in regionally specific ways requiring more rigorous and nuanced assessments of ecosystem vulnerability as well as the ecological consequences.

Seasonal changes in GPP/SIF ratios and their climatic determinants across the Northern Hemisphere

Satellite-derived sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been increasingly used for estimating gross primary production (GPP). However, the relationship between SIF and GPP has not been well defined, impeding the translation of satellite observed SIF to GPP. Previous studies have generally assumed a linear relationship between SIF and GPP at daily and longer time scales, but support for this assumption is lacking. Here, we used the GPP/SIF ratio to investigate seasonal variations in the relationship between SIF and GPP over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Based on multiple SIF products and MODIS and FLUXCOM GPP data, we found strong seasonal hump-shaped patterns for the GPP/SIF ratio over northern latitudes, with higher values in the summer than in the spring or autumn. This hump-shaped GPP/SIF seasonal variation was confirmed by examining different SIF products and was evident for most vegetation types except evergreen broadleaf forests. The seasonal amplitude of the GPP/SIF ratio decreased from the boreal/arctic region to drylands and the tropics. For most of the NH, the lowest GPP/SIF values occurred in October or September, while the maximum GPP/SIF values were evident in June and July. The most pronounced seasonal amplitude of GPP/SIF occurred in intermediate temperature and precipitation ranges. GPP/SIF was positively related to temperature in the early and late parts of the growing season, but not during the peak growing months. These shifting relationships between temperature and GPP/SIF across different months appeared to play a key role in the seasonal dynamics of GPP/SIF. Several mechanisms may explain the patterns we observed, and future research encompassing a broad range of climate and vegetation settings is needed to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal relationships between SIF and GPP. Nonetheless, the strong seasonal variation in GPP/SIF we identified highlights the importance of incorporating this behavior into SIF-based GPP estimations.

Semiarid grasslands and extreme precipitation events: do experimental results scale to the landscape?

The frequency and magnitude of deluges (extremely large rain events) are increasing globally as the atmosphere warms. Small-scale experiments suggest that semiarid grasslands are particularly sensitive to both the timing and size of deluge events. However, the assumption that plot-scale results can be extrapolated across landscapes with variable soil textures, plant communities, and grazing regimes has seldom been tested, despite being key to forecasting regional consequences of precipitation extremes. We used precipitation data from an extensive rain gauge network to identify natural deluges (mean size = 60 ± 31 mm, 1984-2012) that occurred across a ˜60-km² heterogeneous native shortgrass steppe landscape in Colorado. We then related spatial variation in deluge precipitation to postdeluge responses in canopy greenness (normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) via satellite imagery. Consistent with results from experiments, this semiarid grassland was most sensitive to mid-growing-season deluges, and postdeluge canopy greenness usually increased linearly (67% of the time) with increasing deluge size. This suggests that aboveground productivity in these semiarid systems will likely increase, rather than asymptote, with forecasted increases in deluge size. Importantly, differences in grazing regime did not significantly alter deluge responses, indicating that these patterns are robust to this widespread management practice.

Plant traits and soil fertility mediate productivity losses under extreme drought in C3 grasslands

Extreme drought decreases aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in most grasslands, but the magnitude of ANPP reductions varies especially in C₃ -dominated grasslands. Because the mechanisms underlying such differential ecosystem responses to drought are not well resolved, we experimentally imposed an extreme 4-yr drought (2015-2018) in two C₃ grasslands that differed in aridity. These sites had similar annual precipitation and dominant grass species (Leymus chinensis) but different annual temperatures and thus water availability. Drought treatments differentially affected these two semiarid grasslands, with ANPP of the drier site reduced more than at the wetter site. Structural equation modeling revealed that community-weighted means for some traits modified relationships between soil moisture and ANPP, often due to intraspecific variation. Specifically, drought reduced community mean plant height at both sites, resulting in a reduction in ANPP beyond that attributable to reduced soil moisture alone. Higher community mean leaf carbon content enhanced the negative effects of drought on ANPP at the drier site, and ANPP-soil-moisture relationships were influenced by soil C:N ratio at the wetter site. Importantly, neither species richness nor functional dispersion were significantly correlated with ANPP at either site. Overall, as expected, soil moisture was a dominant, direct driver of ANPP response to drought, but differential sensitivity to drought in these two grasslands was also related to soil fertility and plant traits.

Determinants of community compositional change are equally affected by global change

Global change is impacting plant community composition, but the mechanisms underlying these changes are unclear. Using a dataset of 58 global change experiments, we tested the five fundamental mechanisms of community change: changes in evenness and richness, reordering, species gains and losses. We found 71% of communities were impacted by global change treatments, and 88% of communities that were exposed to two or more global change drivers were impacted. Further, all mechanisms of change were equally likely to be affected by global change treatments-species losses and changes in richness were just as common as species gains and reordering. We also found no evidence of a progression of community changes, for example, reordering and changes in evenness did not precede species gains and losses. We demonstrate that all processes underlying plant community composition changes are equally affected by treatments and often occur simultaneously, necessitating a wholistic approach to quantifying community changes.

Why Coordinated Distributed Experiments Should Go Global

The performance of coordinated distributed experiments designed to compare ecosystem sensitivity to global-change drivers depends on whether they cover a significant proportion of the global range of environmental variables. In the present article, we described the global distribution of climatic and soil variables and quantified main differences among continents. Then, as a test case, we assessed the representativeness of the International Drought Experiment (IDE) in parameter space. Considering the global environmental variability at this scale, the different continents harbor unique combinations of parameters. As such, coordinated experiments set up across a single continent may fail to capture the full extent of global variation in climate and soil parameter space. IDE with representation on all continents has the potential to address global scale hypotheses about ecosystem sensitivity to environmental change. Our results provide a unique vision of climate and soil variability at the global scale and highlight the need to design globally distributed networks.

Moisture availability mediates the relationship between terrestrial gross primary production and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence: Insights from global-scale variations

Effective use of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to estimate and monitor gross primary production (GPP) in terrestrial ecosystems requires a comprehensive understanding and quantification of the relationship between SIF and GPP. To date, this understanding is incomplete and somewhat controversial in the literature. Here we derived the GPP/SIF ratio from multiple data sources as a diagnostic metric to explore its global-scale patterns of spatial variation and potential climatic dependence. We found that the growing season GPP/SIF ratio varied substantially across global land surfaces, with the highest ratios consistently found in boreal regions. Spatial variation in GPP/SIF was strongly modulated by climate variables. The most striking pattern was a consistent decrease in GPP/SIF from cold-and-wet climates to hot-and-dry climates. We propose that the reduction in GPP/SIF with decreasing moisture availability may be related to stomatal responses to aridity. Furthermore, we show that GPP/SIF can be empirically modeled from climate variables using a machine learning (random forest) framework, which can improve the modeling of ecosystem production and quantify its uncertainty in global terrestrial biosphere models. Our results point to the need for targeted field and experimental studies to better understand the patterns observed and to improve the modeling of the relationship between SIF and GPP over broad scales.

How big is big enough? Surprising responses of a semiarid grassland to increasing deluge size

Climate change has intensified the hydrologic cycle globally, increasing the magnitude and frequency of large precipitation events, or deluges. Dryland ecosystems are expected to be particularly responsive to increases in deluge size, as their ecological processes are largely dependent on distinct soil moisture pulses. To better understand how increasing deluge size will affect ecosystem function, we conducted a field experiment in a native semiarid shortgrass steppe (Colorado, USA). We quantified ecological responses to a range of deluge sizes, from moderate to extreme, with the goal of identifying response patterns and thresholds beyond which ecological processes would not increase further (saturate). Using a replicated regression approach, we imposed single deluges that ranged in size from 20 to 120 mm (82.3rd to >99.9th percentile of historical event size) on undisturbed grassland plots. We quantified pre- and postdeluge responses in soil moisture, soil respiration, and canopy greenness, as well as leaf water potential, growth, and flowering of the dominant grass species (Bouteloua gracilis). We also measured end of season above- and belowground net primary production (ANPP, BNPP). As expected, this water-limited ecosystem responded strongly to the applied deluges, but surprisingly, most variables increased linearly with deluge size. We found little evidence for response thresholds within the range of deluge sizes imposed, at least during this dry year. Instead, response patterns reflected the linear increase in the duration of elevated soil moisture (2-22 days) with increasing event size. Flowering of B. gracilis and soil respiration responded particularly strongly to deluge size (14- and 4-fold increases, respectively), as did ANPP and BNPP (~60% increase for both). Overall, our results suggest that this semiarid grassland will respond positively and linearly to predicted increases in deluge size, and that event sizes may need to exceed historical magnitudes, or occur during wet years, before responses saturate.

Precipitation-productivity relationships and the duration of precipitation anomalies: An underappreciated dimension of climate change

In terrestrial ecosystems, climate change forecasts of increased frequencies and magnitudes of wet and dry precipitation anomalies are expected to shift precipitation-net primary productivity (PPT-NPP) relationships from linear to nonlinear. Less understood, however, is how future changes in the duration of PPT anomalies will alter PPT-NPP relationships. A review of the literature shows strong potential for the duration of wet and dry PPT anomalies to impact NPP and to interact with the magnitude of anomalies. Within semi-arid and mesic grassland ecosystems, PPT gradient experiments indicate that short-duration (1 year) PPT anomalies are often insufficient to drive nonlinear aboveground NPP responses. But long-term studies, within desert to forest ecosystems, demonstrate how multi-year PPT anomalies may result in increasing impacts on NPP through time, and thus alter PPT-NPP relationships. We present a conceptual model detailing how NPP responses to PPT anomalies may amplify with the duration of an event, how responses may vary in xeric vs. mesic ecosystems, and how these differences are most likely due to demographic mechanisms. Experiments that can unravel the independent and interactive impacts of the magnitude and duration of wet and dry PPT anomalies are needed, with multi-site long-term PPT gradient experiments particularly well-suited for this task.

Is a drought a drought in grasslands? Productivity responses to different types of drought

Drought, defined as a marked deficiency of precipitation relative to normal, occurs as periods of below-average precipitation or complete failure of precipitation inputs, and can be limited to a single season or prolonged over multiple years. Grasslands are typically quite sensitive to drought, but there can be substantial variability in the magnitude of loss of ecosystem function. We hypothesized that differences in how drought occurs may contribute to this variability. In four native Great Plains grasslands (three C₄- and one C₃-dominated) spanning a ~ 500-mm precipitation gradient, we imposed drought for four consecutive years by (1) reducing each rainfall event by 66% during the growing season (chronic drought) or (2) completely excluding rainfall during a shorter portion of the growing season (intense drought). The drought treatments were similar in magnitude but differed in the following characteristics: event number, event size and length of dry periods. We observed consistent drought-induced reductions (28-37%) in aboveground net primary production (ANPP) only in the C₄-dominated grasslands. In general, intense drought reduced ANPP more than chronic drought, with little evidence that drought duration altered this pattern. Conversely, belowground net primary production (BNPP) was reduced by drought in all grasslands (32-64%), with BNPP reductions greater in intense vs. chronic drought treatments in the most mesic grassland. We conclude that grassland productivity responses to drought did not strongly differ between these two types of drought, but when differences existed, intense drought consistently reduced function more than chronic drought.

Asymmetric responses of ecosystem productivity to rainfall anomalies vary inversely with mean annual rainfall over the conterminous United States

The CONterminous United States (CONUS) presents a large range of climate conditions and biomes where terrestrial primary productivity and its inter-annual variability are controlled regionally by rainfall and/or temperature. Here, the response of ecosystem productivity to those climate variables was investigated across different biomes from 2010 to 2018 using three climate datasets of precipitation, air temperature or drought severity, combined with several proxies of ecosystem productivity: a remote sensing product of aboveground biomass, an net primary productivity (NPP) remote sensing product, an NPP model-based product and four gross primary productivity products. We used an asymmetry index (AI) where positive AI indicates a greater increase of ecosystem productivity in wet years compared to the decline in dry years, and negative AI indicates a greater decline of ecosystem productivity in dry years compared to the increase in wet years. We found consistent spatial patterns of AI across the CONUS for the different products, with negative asymmetries over the Great Plains and positive asymmetries over the southwestern CONUS. Shrubs and, to a lesser extent, evergreen forests show a persistent positive asymmetry, whilst (natural) grasslands appear to have transitioned from positive to negative anomalies during the last decade. The general tendency of dominant negative asymmetry response for ecosystem productivity across the CONUS appears to be influenced by the negative asymmetry of precipitation anomalies. AI was found to be a function of mean rainfall: more positive AIs were found in dry areas where plants are adapted to drought and take advantage of rainfall pulses, and more negative AIs were found in wet areas, with a threshold delineating the two regimes corresponding to a mean annual rainfall of 200-400 mm/year.

Temporal variability in production is not consistently affected by global change drivers across herbaceous-dominated ecosystems

Understanding how global change drivers (GCDs) affect aboveground net primary production (ANPP) through time is essential to predicting the reliability and maintenance of ecosystem function and services in the future. While GCDs, such as drought, warming and elevated nutrients, are known to affect mean ANPP, less is known about how they affect inter-annual variability in ANPP. We examined 27 global change experiments located in 11 different herbaceous ecosystems that varied in both abiotic and biotic conditions, to investigate changes in the mean and temporal variability of ANPP (measured as the coefficient of variation) in response to different GCD manipulations, including resource additions, warming, and irrigation. From this comprehensive data synthesis, we found that GCD treatments increased mean ANPP. However, GCD manipulations both increased and decreased temporal variability of ANPP (24% of comparisons), with no net effect overall. These inconsistent effects on temporal variation in ANPP can, in part, be attributed to site characteristics, such as mean annual precipitation and temperature as well as plant community evenness. For example, decreases in temporal variability in ANPP with the GCD treatments occurred in wetter and warmer sites with lower plant community evenness. Further, the addition of several nutrients simultaneously increased the sensitivity of ANPP to interannual variation in precipitation. Based on this analysis, we expect that GCDs will likely affect the magnitude more than the reliability over time of ecosystem production in the future.

Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: Where do we stand?

Changes in rainfall amounts and patterns have been observed and are expected to continue in the near future with potentially significant ecological and societal consequences. Modelling vegetation responses to changes in rainfall is thus crucial to project water and carbon cycles in the future. In this study, we present the results of a new model-data intercomparison project, where we tested the ability of 10 terrestrial biosphere models to reproduce the observed sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to rainfall changes at 10 sites across the globe, in nine of which, rainfall exclusion and/or irrigation experiments had been performed. The key results are as follows: (a) Inter-model variation is generally large and model agreement varies with timescales. In severely water-limited sites, models only agree on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration and to a smaller extent on gross primary productivity. In more mesic sites, model agreement for both water and carbon fluxes is typically higher on fine (daily-monthly) timescales and reduces on longer (seasonal-annual) scales. (b) Models on average overestimate the relationship between ecosystem productivity and mean rainfall amounts across sites (in space) and have a low capacity in reproducing the temporal (interannual) sensitivity of vegetation productivity to annual rainfall at a given site, even though observation uncertainty is comparable to inter-model variability. (c) Most models reproduced the sign of the observed patterns in productivity changes in rainfall manipulation experiments but had a low capacity in reproducing the observed magnitude of productivity changes. Models better reproduced the observed productivity responses due to rainfall exclusion than addition. (d) All models attribute ecosystem productivity changes to the intensity of vegetation stress and peak leaf area, whereas the impact of the change in growing season length is negligible. The relative contribution of the peak leaf area and vegetation stress intensity was highly variable among models.

Rapid recovery of ecosystem function following extreme drought in a South African savanna grassland

Climatic extremes, such as severe drought, are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. Thus, identifying mechanisms of resilience is critical to predicting the vulnerability of ecosystems. An exceptional drought (<first percentile) impacted much of southern Africa during the 2015 and 2016 growing seasons, including the site of a long-term fire experiment in Kruger National Park, South Africa. Prior to the drought, experimental fire frequencies (annual, triennial, and unburned) created savanna grassland plant communities that differed in composition and function, providing a unique opportunity to assess ecosystem resilience mechanisms under different fire regimes. Surprisingly, aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) recovered fully in all fire frequencies the year after this exceptional drought. In burned sites, resilience was due mostly to annual forb ANPP compensating for reduced grass ANPP. In unburned sites, resilience of total and grass ANPP was due to subdominant annual and perennial grass species facilitating recovery in ANPP after mortality of other common grasses. This was possible because of high evenness among grass species in unburned sites predrought. These findings highlight the importance of both functional diversity and within-functional group evenness as mechanisms of ecosystem resilience to extreme drought.

Precipitation amount and event size interact to reduce ecosystem functioning during dry years in a mesic grassland

Ongoing intensification of the hydrological cycle is altering rainfall regimes by increasing the frequency of extreme wet and dry years and the size of individual rainfall events. Despite long-standing recognition of the importance of precipitation amount and variability for most terrestrial ecosystem processes, we lack understanding of their interactive effects on ecosystem functioning. We quantified this interaction in native grassland by experimentally eliminating temporal variability in growing season rainfall over a wide range of precipitation amounts, from extreme wet to dry conditions. We contrasted the rain use efficiency (RUE) of above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) under conditions of experimentally reduced versus naturally high rainfall variability using a 32-year precipitation-ANPP dataset from the same site as our experiment. We found that increased growing season rainfall variability can reduce RUE and thus ecosystem functioning by as much as 42% during dry years, but that such impacts weaken as years become wetter. During low precipitation years, RUE is lowest when rainfall event sizes are relatively large, and when a larger proportion of total rainfall is derived from large events. Thus, a shift towards precipitation regimes dominated by fewer but larger rainfall events, already documented over much of the globe, can be expected to reduce the functioning of mesic ecosystems primarily during drought, when ecosystem processes are already compromised by low water availability.

How ecologists define drought, and why we should do better

Drought, widely studied as an important driver of ecosystem dynamics, is predicted to increase in frequency and severity globally. To study drought, ecologists must define or at least operationalize what constitutes a drought. How this is accomplished in practice is unclear, particularly given that climatologists have long struggled to agree on definitions of drought, beyond general variants of "an abnormal deficiency of water." We conducted a literature review of ecological drought studies (564 papers) to assess how ecologists describe and study drought. We found that ecologists characterize drought in a wide variety of ways (reduced precipitation, low soil moisture, reduced streamflow, etc.), but relatively few publications (~32%) explicitly define what are, and are not, drought conditions. More troubling, a surprising number of papers (~30%) simply equated "dry conditions" with "drought" and provided little characterization of the drought conditions studied. For a subset of these, we calculated Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index values for the reported drought periods. We found that while almost 90% of the studies were conducted under conditions quantifiable as slightly to extremely drier than average, ~50% were within the range of normal climatic variability. We conclude that the current state of the ecological drought literature hinders synthesis and our ability to draw broad ecological inferences because drought is often declared but is not explicitly defined or well characterized. We suggest that future drought publications provide at least one of the following: (a) the climatic context of the drought period based on long-term records; (b) standardized climatic index values; (c) published metrics from drought-monitoring organizations; (d) a quantitative definition of what the authors consider to be drought conditions for their system. With more detailed and consistent quantification of drought conditions, comparisons among studies can be more rigorous, increasing our understanding of the ecological effects of drought.

Decadal-scale shifts in soil hydraulic properties as induced by altered precipitation

Soil hydraulic properties influence the partitioning of rainfall into infiltration versus runoff, determine plant-available water, and constrain evapotranspiration. Although rapid changes in soil hydraulic properties from direct human disturbance are well documented, climate change may also induce such shifts on decadal time scales. Using soils from a 25-year precipitation manipulation experiment, we found that a 35% increase in water inputs substantially reduced infiltration rates and modestly increased water retention. We posit that these shifts were catalyzed by greater pore blockage by plant roots and reduced shrink-swell cycles. Given that precipitation regimes are expected to change at accelerating rates globally, shifts in soil structure could occur over broad regions more rapidly than expected and thus alter water storage and movement in numerous terrestrial ecosystems.

Asymmetry in above- and belowground productivity responses to N addition in a semi-arid temperate steppe

Nitrogen (N) enrichment often increases aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of the ecosystem, but it is unclear if belowground net primary productivity (BNPP) track responses of ANPP. Moreover, the frequency of N inputs may affect primary productivity but is rarely studied. To assess the response patterns of above- and belowground productivity to rates of N addition under different addition frequencies, we manipulated the rate (0-50 g N m^-2  year^-1 ) and frequency (twice vs. monthly additions per year) of NH₄ NO₃ inputs for six consecutive years in a temperate grassland in northern China and measured ANPP and BNPP from 2012 to 2014. In the low range of N addition rates, BNPP showed the greatest negative response and ANPP showed the greatest positive responses with increases in N addition (<10 g N m^-2  year^-1 ). As N addition increased beyond 10 g N m^-2  year^-1 , increases in ANPP dampened and decreases in BNPP ceased altogether. The response pattern of net primary productivity (combined above- and belowground; NPP) corresponded more closely to ANPP than to BNPP. The N effects on BNPP and BNPP/NPP (f_BNPP ) were not dependent on N addition frequency in the range of N additions typically associated with N deposition. BNPP was more sensitive to N addition frequency than ANPP, especially at low rates of N addition. Our findings provide new insights into how plants regulate carbon allocation to different organs with increasing N rates and changing addition frequencies. These root response patterns, if incorporated into Earth system models, may improve the predictive power of C dynamics in dryland ecosystems in the face of global atmospheric N deposition.

Experimentally derived nitrogen critical loads for northern Great Plains vegetation

The critical load concept facilitates communication between scientists and policy makers and land managers by translating the complex effects of air pollution on ecosystems into unambiguous numbers that can be used to inform air quality targets. Anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition adversely affects a variety of ecosystems, but the information used to derive critical loads for North American ecosystems is sparse and often based on experiments investigating N loads substantially higher than current or expected atmospheric deposition. In a 4-yr field experiment in the northern Great Plains (NGP) of North America, where current N deposition levels range from ~3 to 9 kg N·ha^-1 ·yr^-1 , we added 12 levels of N, from 2.5 to 100 kg N·ha^-1 ·yr^-1 , to three sites spanning a range of soil fertility and productivity. Our results suggest a conservative critical load of 4-6 kg N·ha^-1 ·yr^-1 for the most sensitive vegetation type we investigated, badlands sparse vegetation, a community that supports plant species adapted to low fertility conditions, where N addition at this rate increased productivity and litter load. In contrast, for the two more productive vegetation types characteristic of most NGP grasslands, a critical load of 6-10 kg N·ha^-1 ·yr^-1 was identified. Here, N addition at this level altered plant tissue chemistry and increased nonnative species. These critical loads are below the currently suggested range of 10-25 kg N·ha^-1 ·yr^-1 for NGP vegetation and within the range of current or near-future deposition, suggesting that N deposition may already be inducing fundamental changes in NGP ecosystems.

Ambient changes exceed treatment effects on plant species abundance in global change experiments

The responses of species to environmental changes will determine future community composition and ecosystem function. Many syntheses of global change experiments examine the magnitude of treatment effect sizes, but we lack an understanding of how plant responses to treatments compare to ongoing changes in the unmanipulated (ambient or background) system. We used a database of long-term global change studies manipulating CO₂ , nutrients, water, and temperature to answer three questions: (a) How do changes in plant species abundance in ambient plots relate to those in treated plots? (b) How does the magnitude of ambient change in species-level abundance over time relate to responsiveness to global change treatments? (c) Does the direction of species-level responses to global change treatments differ from the direction of ambient change? We estimated temporal trends in plant abundance for 791 plant species in ambient and treated plots across 16 long-term global change experiments yielding 2,116 experiment-species-treatment combinations. Surprisingly, for most species (57%) the magnitude of ambient change was greater than the magnitude of treatment effects. However, the direction of ambient change, whether a species was increasing or decreasing in abundance under ambient conditions, had no bearing on the direction of treatment effects. Although ambient communities are inherently dynamic, there is now widespread evidence that anthropogenic drivers are directionally altering plant communities in many ecosystems. Thus, global change treatment effects must be interpreted in the context of plant species trajectories that are likely driven by ongoing environmental changes.

Carbon exchange responses of a mesic grassland to an extreme gradient of precipitation

Growing evidence indicates that ecosystem processes may be differentially sensitive to dry versus wet years, and that current understanding of how precipitation affects ecosystem processes may not be predictive of responses to extremes. In an experiment within a mesic grassland, we addressed this uncertainty by assessing responses of two key carbon exchange processes-aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and soil respiration (R_s)-to an extensive gradient of growing season precipitation. This gradient comprised 11 levels that specifically included extreme values in precipitation; defined as the 1st, 5th, 95th, and 99th percentiles of the 112-year climate record. Across treatments, our experimental precipitation gradient linearly increased soil moisture availability in the rooting zone (upper 20 cm). Relative to ANPP under nominal precipitation amounts (defined as between the 15th and 85th percentiles), the magnitude of ANPP responses were greatest to extreme increases in precipitation, with an underlying linear response to both precipitation and soil moisture gradients. By contrast, R_s exhibited marginally greater responses to dry versus wet extremes, with a saturating relationship best explaining responses of R_s to both precipitation and soil moisture. Our findings indicate a linear relationship between ANPP and precipitation after incorporating responses to precipitation extremes in the ANPP-precipitation relationship, yet in contrast saturating responses of R_s. As a result, current linear ANPP-precipitation relationships (up to ~ 1000 mm) within mesic grasslands appear to hold as appropriate benchmarks for ecosystems models, yet such models should incorporate nonlinearities in responses of R_s amid increased frequencies and magnitudes of precipitation extremes.

Warming and land use change concurrently erode ecosystem services in Tibet

Alpine meadows on the Tibetan Plateau comprise the largest alpine ecosystem in the world and provide critical ecosystem services, including forage production and carbon sequestration, on which people depend from local to global scales. However, the provision of these services may be threatened by climate warming combined with land use policies that are altering if and how pastoralists can continue to graze livestock, the dominant livelihood practice in this region for millennia. We synthesized findings from a climate warming and yak grazing experiment with landscape-level observations in central Tibet to gain insight into the trajectories of change that Tibet's alpine meadows will undergo in response to expected changes in climate and land use. We show that within 5 years, experimental warming drove an alpine community with intact, sedge-dominated turfs into a degraded state. With removal of livestock, consistent with policy intended to reverse degradation, a longer-term shift to a more shrub-dominated community will likely occur. Neither degraded nor shrub meadows produce forage or sequester carbon to the same degree as intact meadows, indicating that climate warming and drying will reduce the ability of Tibet's alpine meadows to provide key ecosystem services, and that livestock reduction policies intended to counteract trajectories of land degradation instead endanger contemporary livelihoods on the Tibetan Plateau.

Drought timing, not previous drought exposure, determines sensitivity of two shortgrass species to water stress

Climate change will alter global precipitation patterns, making it increasingly important that we understand how ecosystems will be impacted by more frequent and severe droughts. Yet most drought studies examine a single, within-season drought, and we know relatively little about the impacts of multiple droughts that occur within a single growing season. This distinction is important because many plant species are able to acclimate physiologically, such that the effects of multiple droughts on ecosystem function deviate significantly from the effects of cumulative, independent droughts. Unfortunately, we know relatively little about the ability of dominant species to acclimate to drought in drought-sensitive ecosystems like semi-arid grasslands. Here, we tested for physiological acclimation to multiple drought events in two dominant shortgrass steppe species: Bouteloua gracilis (C₄) and Elymus elymoides (C₃). Neither species exhibited physiological acclimation to drought; leaf water potential, stomatal conductance, and photosynthesis rates were all similarly affected by a single, late period drought and a second, late period drought. Biomass was lowest in plants exposed to two droughts, but this is likely due to the cumulative effects of both an early and late period drought. Our results suggest that late period droughts do exert weaker effects on biomass production of two dominant shortgrass species, but that the weaker effects are due to ontogenetic changes in plant physiology as opposed to physiological acclimation against multiple droughts. As a consequence, current ecosystem models that incorporate grass phenology and seasonal physiology should provide accurate predictions of primary production under future climates.