Worsened physical condition due to climate change contributes to the increasing hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

Disentangling the contributions of anthropogenic nutrient input and physical forcing to long-term deoxygenation off the Pearl River Estuary, China

Deoxygenation in estuarine and coastal waters worldwide has been largely attributed to the increasing anthropogenic nutrient input, whereas the contribution by long-term (decadal) changes in physical forcing is less investigated. This study aims to disentangle the impacts of three-decade changes in summer river nutrient concentration and physical forcing on the deoxygenation off a large eutrophic estuary, the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) in China. Using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model, we reproduce the observed summer oxygen conditions under the historical (the 1990s) and present (the 2020s) status of river nutrient concentration, freshwater discharge, and wind forcing. We show that the bottom hypoxic (dissolved oxygen < 2 mg/L) area off the PRE in the 2020s has increased by 73 % relative to the 1990s. The expansion is a result of the increased bottom water oxygen consumption outweighing the enhanced vertical oxygen supply, with the former driven by the sharp increase in inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations (160 %) and the latter caused by the decadal decline in both freshwater discharge (38 %) and wind speed (12.5 %) in summer. Model experiments suggest that if the observed changes in physical forcing had not occurred, the dramatic increase in anthropogenic nutrient concentrations from the 1990s to 2020s could have led to a much greater expansion of hypoxic area (249 %). On the contrary, the decadal decrease in summer freshwater discharge alone (while keeping the nutrient loading the same as in the 1990s) almost eliminates hypoxia off the PRE by weakening water column stratification and limiting the offshore spread of nutrients and organic matter, whereas the declined wind speed increases the hypoxic area by 247 % mainly through enhancing water column stability. Our results reveal that long-term changes in physical forcing are confounding the effects of anthropogenic nutrient input on deoxygenation, underlining the need to consider regional forcing changes in nutrient management to meet water quality goals.

Oxidative stress-mediated deleterious effects of hypoxia in the brackish water flea Diaphanosoma celebensis

In this study, we investigated the acute toxicity, in vivo effects, oxidative stress, and gene expression changes caused by hypoxia on the brackish water flea Diaphanosoma celebensis. The no-observed-effect concentration (NOEC) of 48 h of hypoxia exposure was found to be 2 mg/L O2. Chronic exposure to NOEC caused a significant decline in lifespan but had no effect on total fecundity. The induction of reactive oxygen species increased in a time-dependent manner over 48 h, whereas the content of antioxidant enzymes (superoxide dismutase and catalase) decreased. The transcription and translation levels were modulated by hypoxia exposure. In particular, a significant increase in hemoglobin level was followed by up-regulation of hypoxia-inducible factor 1α gene expression and activation of the mitogen-activated protein kinase pathway. In conclusion, our findings provide a better understanding of the molecular mechanism of the adverse effects of hypoxia in brackish water zooplankton.

Long-term developments in seasonal hypoxia and response to climate change: A three-decade modeling study in the Ariake Sea, Japan

Hypoxia in the Ariake Sea, Japan, is steadily increasing in both duration and spatial coverage. Hypoxia, defined as dissolved oxygen (DO) below 3 mg/L, is strongly associated with the amplified frequency of extreme rainfall events driven by climate change, which poses a mounting threat to marine ecosystems on a global scale. In this study, we employed a general three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic coastal model and a phytoplankton-based ecosystem model to identify the potential cause of seasonal hypoxic events over three decades. The results indicated a substantial decrease in bottom DO levels from 1992 to 2021, with the rate of increase in hypoxic area being 8 km2/yr (95 % CI: -0.38, 16.2) and the anoxic area increasing from almost non-existent to 100 km2. Notably, among various environmental drivers, increased river discharge was identified as a pivotal factor in the occurrence of hypoxia. Large-scale river discharge events can potentially increase water stratification, leading to the formation of hypoxia. River discharge volume and the duration of bottom hypoxia in the Ariake Sea were correlated. The duration of hypoxia was strongly associated with river discharge magnitude, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.56 to 0.82 across six observational stations. Furthermore, analysis of varied simulated environmental factors over multiple years revealed diverse responses to climate change, indicating that the Ariake Sea is prone to experiencing a decline in its physical and water quality conditions.

Hypoxia leads to gill endoplasmic reticulum stress and disruption of mitochondrial homeostasis in grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella): Mitigation effect of thiamine

Hypoxia in water environment is one of the important problems faced by intensive aquaculture. Under hypoxia stress, the effects of dietary thiamine were investigated on grass carp gill tissue damage and their mechanisms. Six thiamine diets with different thiamine levels (0.22, 0.43, 0.73, 1.03, 1.33 and 1.63 mg/kg) were fed grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) for 63 days. Then, 96-hour hypoxia stress test was conducted. This study described that thiamine enhanced the growth performance of adult grass carp and ameliorated nutritional status of thiamine (pyruvic acid, glucose, lactic acid and transketolase). Additionally, thiamine alleviated the deterioration of blood parameters [glutamic oxalacetic transaminase (GOT), glutamic pyruvic transaminase (GPT), glucose, cortisol, lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), erythrocyte fragility, and red blood cell count (RBC count)] caused by hypoxia stress, and reduced reactive oxygen species (ROS) content and oxidative damage to the gills. In addition, thiamine alleviated endoplasmic reticulum stress in the gills, which may be related to its inhibition of RNA-dependent protein kinase-like ER kinase (PERK)/eukaryotic translation initiation factor-2α (eIF2α)/activating transcription factor4 (ATF4), inositol-requiring enzyme 1 (IRE1)/X-Box binding protein 1 (XBP1) and activating transcription factor 6 (ATF6) pathways. Furthermore, thiamine maintaining mitochondrial dynamics balance was probably related to promoting mitochondrial fusion and inhibiting mitochondrial fission, and inhibiting mitophagy may involve PTEN induced putative kinase 1 (PINK1)/Parkin-dependent pathway and hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF)-Bcl-2 adenovirus E1B 19 kDa interacting protein 3 (BNIP3) pathway. In summary, thiamine alleviated hypoxia stress in fish gills, which may be related to reducing endoplasmic reticulum stress, regulating mitochondrial dynamics balance and reducing mitophagy. The thiamine requirement for optimum growth [percent weight gain (PWG)] of adult grass carp was estimated to be 0.81 mg/kg diet. Based on the index of anti-hypoxia stress (ROS content in gill), the thiamine requirement for adult grass carp was estimated to be 1.32 mg/kg diet.

Promoting effect of raft-raised scallop culture on the formation of coastal hypoxia

The coastal waters around the Yangma Island are an important mariculture area of raft-raised scallop and bottom-seeded sea cucumber in the North Yellow Sea, China. Large-scale hypoxia in the bottom water of this area has caused the death of a large number of sea cucumbers and heavy economic losses. To find out the formation mechanism of hypoxia, the data obtained in each August during 2015-2018 were analyzed. Compared with the non-hypoxic year (2018), the temperature, trophic index (TRIX) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the bottom water were relatively higher, and the water column was stratified causing by continuous high air temperature and low wind speed meteorological conditions in the hypoxic years (2015-2017). These sites with the coexistence of thermocline and halocline, and the thickness of thermocline >2.5 m and its upper boundary >7.0 m deep, were prone to hypoxia. Spatially, the hypoxic place was highly consistent with the scallop cultivating places, and the DOC, TRIX, NH₄⁺/NO₃^- and apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) at the culture sites were higher, indicating that organic matter and nutrients released by scallops may lead to local oxygen depletion. In addition, the bottom water of the culture sites had higher salinity, but lower turbidity and temperature, indicating that the slowed water exchange caused by scallop culture was a dynamic factor of hypoxia. All sites with AOU >4 mg/L at the bottom had hypoxia occurrence, even if there was no thermocline. In other words, stratification promoted the formation of hypoxia in coastal bottom water, but it was not indispensable. The raft-raised scallop culture could promote the formation of coastal hypoxia, which should arouse the attention for other coastal areas with intensive bivalve production.

Hydrological models for climate-based assessments at the watershed scale: A critical review of existing hydrologic and water quality models

Global changes, including climate and land use changes, can result in significant impact to water resources. Planning for these changes requires making projections, even in the face of considerable uncertainties, to make informed management and policy decisions. A number of climate change scenarios and projections at global and regional levels are available that can be used to predict the likely range of outcomes. However, there is a need to translate these projections into potential implications for hydrology and water quality. Since there are dozens of hydrologic models, there is a need to evaluate them critically and to develop guidance regarding selecting the appropriate model for a given objective. We conducted a review of 21 different models commonly used for modeling hydrology (8), water quality (6) or both (7) at the watershed scale. Six of the models are strictly water quality models that depend on a separate model or observed data for hydrology. Seven additional models are useful for estimating hydrology and water quality simultaneously. The models were then evaluated based on ten different criteria, including functionality, scope, ability to model extreme events, data requirements, availability, and technical support, among others. The models were ranked Low, Medium or High in each of the criteria. The results indicate that three hydrologic models, MIKE-SHE, HEC-HMS, and MODHMS, as well as two full hydrology and water quality models, SWAT and WARMF, stand out in terms of functionality, availability, applicability to a wide range of watersheds and scales, ease of implementation, and availability of support. Modelers should carefully select the best model for their application, in part guided by the criteria discussed herein.

Drivers of hypoxia variability in a shallow and eutrophicated semi-enclosed fjord

Seasonal deoxygenation of coastal waters has been observed with increasing frequency around the world, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and continued benthic capacity to buffer hypoxia. Here, we present a hydrodynamical-ecological model study of the Limfjord in Denmark, an example of a semi-enclosed water body affected by recurring seasonal deoxygenation. Applying observations and model results, we show that water temperature, combined with wind strength and direction are the most important controllers of short-term interannual variability of bottom oxygen, while ventilation through episodic water inflow from the North Sea and local stratification create a spatial decoupling of deoxygenation. Nutrient load to the fjord drives sustained high biological productivity, but does not affect the interannual variability to the same degree. However, high biological turnover rates likely push the system closer towards a deoxygenated state, making the fjord more sensitive to future changes in temperature, wind and ventilation by reducing the buffer capacity of the sediments.

Transitions in nitrogen and organic matter form and concentration correspond to bacterial population dynamics in a hypoxic urban estuary

Nitrogen (N) inputs to developed coastlines are linked with multiple ecosystem and socio-economic impacts worldwide such as algal blooms, habitat/resource deterioration, and hypoxia. This study investigated the microbial and biogeochemical processes associated with recurrent, seasonal bottom-water hypoxia in an urban estuary, western Long Island Sound (WLIS), that receives high N inputs. A 2-year (2020-2021) field study spanned two hypoxia events and entailed surface and bottom depth water sampling for dissolved nutrients as inorganic N (DIN; ammonia-N and nitrite + nitrate (N + N)), organic N, orthophosphate, organic carbon (DOC), as well as chlorophyll a and bacterial abundances. Physical water quality data were obtained from concurrent conductivity, temperature, and depth casts. Results showed that dissolved organic matter was highest at the most-hypoxic locations, DOC was negatively and significantly correlated with bottom-water dissolved oxygen (Pearson's r = -0.53, p = 0.05), and ammonia-N was the dominant DIN form pre-hypoxia before declining throughout hypoxia. N + N concentrations showed the reverse, being minimal pre-hypoxia then increasing during and following hypoxia, indicating that ammonia oxidation likely contributed to the switch in dominant DIN forms and is a key pathway in WLIS water column nitrification. Similarly, at the most hypoxic sampling site, bottom depth bacteria concentrations ranged ~ 1.8 × 10⁴-1.1 × 10⁵ cells ml^-1 pre-hypoxia, declined throughout hypoxia, and were positively and significantly correlated (Pearson's r = 0.57; p = 0.03) with ammonia-N, confirming that hypoxia influences N-cycling within LIS. These findings provide novel insight to feedbacks between major biogeochemical (N and C) cycles and hypoxia in urban estuaries.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10533-023-01021-2.

What drove the nonlinear hypoxia response to nutrient loading in Chesapeake Bay during the 20th century?

Previous data analysis showed that the large expansion of hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay between 1950s and 1980s was correlated to the increased riverine nutrient loading, but the physical and biogeochemical processes driving this hypoxia response need to be better understood. Using a validated coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model, we conducted a hindcast simulation of dissolved oxygen during the 40-year period (1950-1989) when the nutrient loading doubled. The model reproduced the observed decline in O₂ concentration at monitoring stations and the expansion of the hypoxic volume. The peak summer hypoxic volume expanded from ∼5 km³ during 1950-1969 to ∼10 km³ during 1970-1989. To discern how different physical and biochemical processes regulated dissolved O₂, we examined O₂ budget in a fixed control volume of the bottom water most susceptible to hypoxia. The increased water column respiration was found to be the dominant driver of the hypoxia expansion. Further analysis showed a nonlinear response to the nutrient loading. The accumulative hypoxia volume days per unit of nitrate load showed an abrupt (∼50 %) jump around 1968. The summer mean hypoxic volume increased with the winter-spring nutrient load, but it was 1.3 km³ (about 30 %) higher in 1968-1989 than in 1950-1967 at the same nutrient load. This upward shift in hypoxia was caused by the upward shift in the relationship between the water column respiration and winter-spring nutrient load. Hypoxia suppressed nitrification and denitrification processes in the sediment, amplifying nutrient recycling by 15 % and water column respiration by 12 %. Our modeling analysis demonstrated a feedback mechanism for driving the nonlinear hypoxia response to nutrient loading.

A coastal Ramsar site on transition to hypoxia and tracking pollution sources: a case study of south-west coast of India

Coastal lakes and estuaries are considered economic drivers for coastal communities by delivering invaluable economic and ecosystem services. The coastal ecosystems are facing recurrent hypoxia events (dissolved oxygen; DO < 2.0 mg L^-1) and are emerging as a major threat to ecosystem structure and functioning. The Ashtamudi Lake, (area = 56 km²), is one of the Ramsar sites in the State of Kerala and located on the SW coast of India. The waterways are extensively used for backwater tourism and for fishery activities. This paper discusses the spatio-temporal variation of water quality attributes with emphasis on hypoxia during non-monsoon and monsoon seasons. The extent of hypoxia on fishery diversity was discussed. The Southern Zone, adjacent to the urban area, shows the hypoxic condition with higher concentration of BOD, NO₃-N, and NH₄-N. The hypoxic condition is largely limited to the Southern Zone in both seasons. The occurrence of low DO in the lake is highly related to salinity and organic load in the lake system. The tracking of pollution sources in the lake system was also done through identification of pollution potential zones and found that catchments adjacent to Southern and Western Zones (urban regions) are the major source of pollution. The study suggests that hypoxia is chiefly attributed to anthropogenic interventions in the form of discharge of wastes into the lake causing overloading of nutrients and organic effluents, decrease in the freshwater supply, the absence of proper freshwater mixing or dilution, and effluent discharge from nearby urban centers.

Eutrophication status assessment in the Laizhou Bay, Bohai Sea: Further evidence for the ecosystem degradation

Laizhou Bay is plagued by many environmental problems (e.g., acidification and eutrophication) that are likely to increase in the coming decades along with social and demographic trends. We thus conducted 12 cruises from July 2019 to December 2021 in the Laizhou Bay to evaluate the potential influences of human activities on its eutrophication status. The results showed that the parameters of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and oxygen (DO) exceeded the water quality standard in some cases during the past 3 years, suggesting DIN and DO were the crucial factors controlling water quality in the bay. Meanwhile, DIN was identified as a major pollutant in the region, and played an important role in driving the phytoplankton dynamics. Furthermore, with the increases in human-related nutrient inputs (especially DIN), the bay environment reached the mild eutrophication level and was probably at risk from excessive nutrient loads at present, further evidencing the ecosystem degradation.

Climatic Change of Summer Wind Direction and Its Impact on Hydrodynamic Circulation in the Pearl River Estuary

Assessing the trend of sea surface wind is important for understanding the response of the marine environment to climate change. Analysis of wind data reveals that the summer wind direction in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) shifts anticlockwise at a rate of −0.36°yr−1 over the past 42 years (1979–2020). The mean wind direction in July shifts from 183.6° (in 1979) to 169.3° (in 2020) and is predicted as 142.1° by 2100. How this long-term wind direction change affects the PRE hydrodynamic circulation structure has not been examined yet. A fully calibrated high resolution 3D hydrodynamic model is used to evaluate the response of local hydrodynamics to wind direction shifting in this study. The model results indicate that both the cross-channel wind-driven transport and along-channel seaward flow are weakened as wind direction shifts. Consequently, the lateral circulation is slowed down significantly while the longitudinal exchange flow is weakened slightly. A remarkable increase in stratification occurs in the coastal sea adjacent to the Modaomen where hypoxia has been frequently reported. The residence time of Lingding Bay increases slightly. The Momentum budget indicates the wind direction shifting can cause major changes in the barotropic pressure term, which is mainly balanced by the baroclinic pressure term and diffusion term.

Nitrogen reductions have decreased hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay: Evidence from empirical and numerical modeling

Seasonal hypoxia is a characteristic feature of the Chesapeake Bay due to anthropogenic nutrient input from agriculture and urbanization throughout the watershed. Although coordinated management efforts since 1985 have reduced nutrient inputs to the Bay, oxygen concentrations at depth in the summer still frequently fail to meet water quality standards that have been set to protect critical estuarine living resources. To quantify the impact of watershed nitrogen reductions on Bay hypoxia during a recent period including both average discharge and extremely wet years (2016-2019), this study employed both statistical and three-dimensional (3-D) numerical modeling analyses. Numerical model results suggest that if the nitrogen reductions since 1985 had not occurred, annual hypoxic volumes (O₂ < 3 mg L^-1) would have been ~50-120% greater during the average discharge years of 2016-2017 and ~20-50% greater during the wet years of 2018-2019. The effect was even greater for O₂ < 1 mg L^-1, where annual volumes would have been ~80-280% greater in 2016-2017 and ~30-100% greater in 2018-2019. These results were supported by statistical analysis of empirical data, though the magnitude of improvement due to nitrogen reductions was greater in the numerical modeling results than in the statistical analysis. This discrepancy is largely accounted for by warming in the Bay that has exacerbated hypoxia and offset roughly 6-34% of the improvement from nitrogen reductions. Although these results may reassure policymakers and stakeholders that their efforts to reduce hypoxia have improved ecosystem health in the Bay, they also indicate that greater reductions are needed to counteract the ever-increasing impacts of climate change.

Analysis of long-term (2002-2020) trends and peak events in total suspended solids concentrations in the Chesapeake Bay using MODIS imagery

Water quality monitoring programs have been widely implemented worldwide to monitor and assess water quality and to understand its trends. However, water quality analysis based on point-source field observations is difficult to perform at large spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, a fully automated Google Earth Engine (GEE) application algorithm was developed to estimate the total suspended solids (TSS) concentration in the Chesapeake Bay based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra imagery. Combining long-term archived satellite data (2002-2020) with field observations, the concentrations and spatiotemporal patterns of TSS in the bay water were evaluated. Time series analysis showed a statistically significant decreasing trend in TSS concentration between 2002 and 2020, suggesting that the sediment concentration in the bay has gradually been decreasing over the last two decades. The decreasing trend was observed in 49 out of 60 segments of the bay, implying that substantial progress has been made toward attaining the Chesapeake Bay water quality standards. Based on the monthly TSS analysis, 12 major peak events of TSS were identified in the Chesapeake Bay, which coincided with extreme winter blizzards and summer hurricane events. The GEE application and the results presented herein complement the existing monitoring program in attaining the water quality standards of the bay.

Spatiotemporal BME characterization and mapping of sea surface chlorophyll in Chesapeake Bay (USA) using auxiliary sea surface temperature data

Improving the spatiotemporal coverage of remote sensing (RS) products, such as sea surface chlorophyll concentration (SSCC), can offer a better understanding of the spatiotemporal SSCC distribution for ocean management purposes. In the first part of this work, 834 in-situ SSCC measurements of the SeaBASS-NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) during 2002-2016 served as the empirical dataset. A moving window with ±3 days and ±0.5° centered at each of the in-situ SSCC measurements established a search neighborhood for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Level 2 (MODIS L2) SSCC and MODIS L2 sea surface temperature (SST) data, and the matched SSCC and SST data were used for building a linear SSCC-SST relationship. The unmatched SST was introduced to the linear model for generating soft SSCC data with uniform distributions. The inherent spatiotemporal dependency of the SSCC distribution was then represented by the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method, which incorporated the soft SSCC data as auxiliary variable for SSCC estimation and mapping purposes. The results showed that a 75.3% accuracy improvement of remote SSCC retrieval in terms of R² can be achieved by BME-based method compared to the original MODIS L2 product. Subsequently, the BME-based method was applied to obtain daily SSCC dataset in Chesapeake Bay (USA) during the period 2010-2019. It was found that the SSCC distribution exhibited a decreasing spatial trend from the upper bay to the outer bay, whereas decreasing and increasing temporal trends were detected during the periods 2011-2014 and 2016-2019, respectively. The generalized Cauchy process was used to quantitatively describe the autocorrelation SSCC function in the Chesapeake Bay. The results showed that the outer bay exhibited the strongest long-range dependence among the four sub-regions, whereas the middle bay exhibited the weakest long-range dependence. Finally, one-point and two-point stochastic site indicators (SSIs) were employed to explore the spatiotemporal SSCC characteristics in Chesapeake Bay. The one-point SSI results showed that nearly 100% of the upper, middle and the lower bay areas experienced a high SSCC level (>5 mg/m³) during the entire study period. The area with SSCC >5 mg/m³ in the outer bay increased a lot during the winter season, but the area with SSCC >10 or 20 mg/m³ decreased significantly in the upper, middle and lower bay. Simultaneously, the SSCC dispersion in these areas was rather small during the winter season. On the other hand, the two-point SSI results showed that although the SSCC levels differ among the four sub-regions, but the SSCC connectivity structures between pairs of points also displayed some similarities in terms of their spatiotemporal dependency. In conclusion, the proposed BME-based method was shown to be a promising remote SSCC mapping technique that exhibited a powerful ability to improve both accuracy and coverage of RS products. The SSIs can be also used to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of a variety of natural attributes in waters.

Advancing estuarine ecological forecasts: seasonal hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

Ecological forecasts are quantitative tools that can guide ecosystem management. The coemergence of extensive environmental monitoring and quantitative frameworks allows for widespread development and continued improvement of ecological forecasting systems. We use a relatively simple estuarine hypoxia model to demonstrate advances in addressing some of the most critical challenges and opportunities of contemporary ecological forecasting, including predictive accuracy, uncertainty characterization, and management relevance. We explore the impacts of different combinations of forecast metrics, drivers, and driver time windows on predictive performance. We also incorporate multiple sets of state-variable observations from different sources and separately quantify model prediction error and measurement uncertainty through a flexible Bayesian hierarchical framework. Results illustrate the benefits of (1) adopting forecast metrics and drivers that strike an optimal balance between predictability and relevance to management, (2) incorporating multiple data sources in the calibration data set to separate and propagate different sources of uncertainty, and (3) using the model in scenario mode to probabilistically evaluate the effects of alternative management decisions on future ecosystem state. In the Chesapeake Bay, the subject of this case study, we find that average summer or total annual hypoxia metrics are more predictable than monthly metrics and that measurement error represents an important source of uncertainty. Application of the model in scenario mode suggests that absent watershed management actions over the past decades, long-term average hypoxia would have increased by 7% compared to 1985. Conversely, the model projects that if management goals currently in place to restore the Bay are met, long-term average hypoxia would eventually decrease by 32% with respect to the mid-1980s.

Responses of marine ecosystems to climate change impacts and their treatment in biogeochemical ecosystem models

To predict the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and the effectiveness of intervention and mitigation strategies, we need reliable marine ecosystem response models such as biogeochemical models that reproduce climate change effects. We reviewed marine ecosystem parameters and processes that are modified by climate change and examined their representations in biogeochemical ecosystem models. The interactions among important aspects of marine ecosystem modelling are not often considered due to complexity: these include the use of multiple IPCC scenarios, ensemble modelling approach, independent calibration datasets, the consideration of changes in cloud cover, ocean currents, wind speed, sea-level rise, storm frequency, storm intensity, and the incorporation of species adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Including our recommendations in future marine modelling studies could help improve the accuracy and reliability of model predictions of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

Future trends of dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations in Northwestern Mediterranean coastal waters under climate change

Coastal ecosystems are amongst the most vulnerable to climate change, due to their location at the land-sea interface. In coastal waters, the nitrogen cycle can be significantly altered by rising temperatures and other factors derived from climate change, affecting phytoplankton and higher trophic levels. This research analyzes the effect of meteorological variables on dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) species in coastal inshore waters of a Northwestern Mediterranean region under climate change. We built simple mathematical schemes based on artificial neural networks (ANN), trained with field data. Then, we used regional climatic projections for the Spanish Mediterranean coast to provide inputs to the trained ANNs, and thus, allowing the estimation of future DIN trends throughout the 21st century. The results obtained indicate that nitrite and nitrate concentrations are expected to decrease mainly due to rising temperatures and decreasing continental inputs. Major changes are projected for the winter season, driven by a rise in minimum temperatures which decrease the nitrite and nitrate peaks observed at low temperatures. Ammonium concentrations are not expected to undergo a significant annual trend but may either increase or decrease during some months. These results entail a preliminary simplified approach to estimate the impact of meteorological changes on DIN concentrations in coastal waters under climate change.

Modeling the combined impact of climate change and sea-level rise on general circulation and residence time in a semi-enclosed sea

This study provides an assessment of possible changes in the general circulation and residence time in the Persian Gulf under potential future sea-level rise and changes in the wind field due to the climate change. To determine the climate-change-induced impacts, Mike 3 Flow Model FM was used to simulate hydrodynamic and transport processes in the Persian Gulf in both historical (1998-2014) and future periods (2081-2100). Historical simulation was driven by ERA-Interim data. A statistical approach was employed to modify the values and directions of the future wind field obtained from the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) scenarios derived from CMCC-CM model of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The numerical model was calibrated and validated using measured data. Results indicated that in the historical period, residence time ranged between values of less than a month in the Strait of Hormuz and 10 years in the semi-enclosed area close to the south of Bahrain. The changes in wind field based on RCP 8.5 scenario were found to be the most disadvantageous for the Persian Gulf's capacity to flush dissolved pollutants out. Under this scenario, residence time would be 17% longer than that of historical one. This is mainly because the change in the wind field is large enough to overwhelm general circulation, showing a relationship between the residence time and the residual circulation. Impact of change in the wind field according to RCP 4.5 scenario on the modeled residence time is negligible. The numerical outputs also showed that the sea-level rise would slightly decrease the current velocity, resulting in a negligible increase in residence time. The findings of this study are intended to support establishing climate-adaptation management plans for coastal zones of the studied area in line with sustainable development goals.

The effects of hydrological extremes on denitrification, dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) and mineralization in a coastal lagoon

Hydrological extremes of unusually high or low river discharge may deeply affect the biogeochemistry of coastal lagoons, but the effects are poorly explored. In this study, microbial nitrogen processes were analyzed through intact core incubations and ¹⁵N-isotope addition at three sites in the eutrophic Sacca di Goro lagoon (Northern Adriatic Sea) both under high discharge (spring) and after prolonged low discharge (late-summer) of the main freshwater inputs. Under high discharge/nitrate load, denitrification was the leading process and there was no internal recycling. The site located at the mouth of the main freshwater input and characterized by low salinity exhibited the highest denitrification rate (up to 1150 ± 81 μmol N m^-2 h^-1), mostly sustained by nitrification stimulated by burrowing macrofauna. In contrast, we recorded high internal recycling under low discharge, when denitrification dropped at all sites due to low nitrate concentrations, reduced bioturbation and nitrification. The highest recycling was measured at the sites close to the sea entrance and characterized by high salinity and particularly at the clams cultivated area (up to 1003 ± 70 μmol N m^-2 h^-1). At this site, internal recycling was sustained by ammonification of biodeposits, bivalve excretion and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA), which represented 30% of nitrate reduction. Flash floods and high nitrate loads may overwhelm the denitrification capacity of the lagoon due to the reduced residence time and to the saturation of microbial enzymatic activity, resulting in high transport of nitrate to the sea. Prolonged dry periods favor large internal recycling, due to a combination of high temperatures, low oxygen solubility and low bioturbation, which may prolong the extent of algal blooms with negative effects on lagoon biogeochemical services. We conclude that hydrological extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under climate change scenarios, strongly alter N cycling in coastal sediments.

Discerning effects of warming, sea level rise and nutrient management on long-term hypoxia trends in Chesapeake Bay

Analyses of dissolved oxygen concentration in Chesapeake Bay over the past three decades suggested seasonally-dependent changes in hypoxic volume and an earlier end of hypoxic conditions. While these studies hypothesized and evaluated multiple potential driving mechanisms, quantitative evidence for the relative effects of various drivers has yet to be presented. In this study, a coupled physical-biogeochemical model was used to conduct hindcast simulations between 1985 and 2016. Additional numerical experiments, in which the long-term trends in external drivers were removed, were analyzed to discern the separate effects of temperature increase, sea level rise and nutrient reduction. After the removal of seasonal and interannual variations, dissolved oxygen concentration in all regions of the estuary showed a statistically significant declining trend: ~0.1 mg/L per decade. Most of this decline occurred during winter and spring while May-August hypoxic volumes showed no changes and September hypoxic volume showed a slight decrease (~0.9 km³). Our simulations show that warming was the dominant driver of the long-term oxygen decline, overwhelming the effects of sea level rise and modest oxygen increases associated with nutrient reduction. There was no statistically significant trend in the initiation of hypoxia in spring, where the potential delay associated with nutrient reduction was offset by warming-induced oxygen declines, and both nutrient reduction and warming contributed to an earlier disintegration of hypoxia in the fall. These results suggest that recent warming has prevented oxygen improvements in Chesapeake Bay expected from nutrient input reductions and support the expectation that continued warming will serve to counter future nutrient management actions.

Fifty years of ecological changes: Regime shifts and drivers in a coastal Mediterranean lagoon during oligotrophication

Thau lagoon is a large Mediterranean coastal lagoons and it supports traditional shellfish farming activities. It has been subject to eutrophication leading to major anoxic events associated with massive mortalities of shellfish stocks. Since the 1970s, improvements have been made to wastewater treatment systems, which have gradually led to oligotrophication of the lagoon. The aim of our study was to determine how the decrease in nutrient inputs resulted in major ecological changes in Thau lagoon, by analysing five decades of time-series (1970-2018) of observations on pelagic and benthic autotrophic communities. We were able to identify two periods during the oligotrophication process. Period 1 (1970-1992) was considered a eutrophic period, characterised by the shift from seagrass dominance to dominance of red macroalgae. Period 2 (1993-2018), characterised by improved eutrophication status, was further divided into three: a transition phase (1993-2003) during which the water column continued to recover but the benthic community lagged behind in recovery and in partial resilience; a regime shift (2003-2006), after which the water column became oligotrophic and seagrass began to recover (2007-2018). Considering anoxia crises as indicators of ecosystem resilience and resistance, we used a generalised linear model to analyse meteorological and environmental data with the aim of identifying the triggers of summer anoxia over the study period. Among the meteorological variables studied, air temperature had the strongest positive effect, followed by the period and wind intensity (both negative effects) and by rainfall in July (positive effect). The risk of triggering anoxia was lower in period 2, evidence for the increasing resistance of the ecosystem to climatic stress throughout the oligotrophication process. At the ecosystem scale and in the long term perspective, the ecological gains related to oligotrophication are especially important in the context of climate change, with more frequent and severe heat waves predicted.

Understanding the Knowledge and Data Landscape of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in the Chesapeake Bay Region: A Systematic Review

Climate change is increasingly threatening coastal communities around the world. This article reviews the literature on climate change impacts and adaptation in the Chesapeake Bay region (USA). We reviewed both climate impacts and adaptation literature (n = 283) published in the period 2007–2018 to answer the questions: (i) how are indicators of climate impacts measured and reported by different types of authors (e.g., scientists, government, and NGOs), document types (e.g., academic articles or reports), and geographic focus (e.g., State, region, county, or municipal level)? (ii) what are the current approaches for measuring the most pressing climate impacts in the Chesapeake Bay? We found that scientists produce the most amount of data but are increasingly shifting towards engaging with practitioners through reports and online resources. Most indicators focus on the Chesapeake Bay scale, but data is most needed at the local level where adaptive policies are implemented. Our analysis shows emerging approaches to monitoring climate hazards and areas where synergies between types of authors are likely to increase resilience in the 21st century. This review expands the understanding of the information network in the Chesapeake Bay and explores the institutional landscape of stakeholders involved in the production and consumption of environmental and social change data. The analysis and insights of this review may be extended to similar regions around the planet experiencing or anticipating similar climate hazards to the Chesapeake Bay.

Eutrophication control strategies for highly anthropogenic influenced coastal waters

Rapid economic development and urbanization necessitate an understanding of anthropogenic effects on coastal eutrophication. It is a significant challenge for governments to alleviate water degradation and remediate coastal ecosystems. Shenzhen Bay in China, located in a developed and populous area, was selected to analyze the decadal scale influence of anthropogenic activities on eutrophication as well as the effectiveness of governmental remediation strategies. The results showed that the contribution of nutrients from anthropogenic sources accounted for over 80% of the total loads into the bay. Beginning in 1990, increased anthropogenic activities resulted in the loss of environmental capability and resilience, exacerbated eutrophication and water quality degradation. However, the status of eutrophication has been improved since 2005, following the application of intensive management actions implemented in 2000. The practice of eutrophication control suggested that, in view of technical and engineering feasibility, coastal strategies for similar shallow bays should initially reduce phosphorus, followed by nitrogen and eco-remediation to alleviate the serious aquatic situation immediately. The recovery period of eutrophication would be at least five years after governmental actions from Shenzhen Bay's experience. Furthermore, simulated scenarios indicated that eutrophication ranking of Shenzhen Bay could reach and remains medium Moderate, following a 35% reduction in total nitrogen and a 20% reduction in total phosphorus with corresponding eco-remediation.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydro-Climate of Peninsular Malaysia

In this study, a regional climate model was used to dynamically downscale 15 future climate projections from three GCMs covering four emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1FI, A1B, A2) based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets to 6-km horizontal resolution over the whole Peninsular Malaysia. Impacts of climate change in the 21st century on the precipitation, air temperature, and soil water storage were assessed covering ten watersheds and twelve coastal regions. Then, by coupling a physical hydrology model with the regional climate model, the impacts of the climate change on river flows were assessed at the outlets of ten watersheds in Peninsular Malaysia. It was found that the increase in the 30-year mean annual precipitation from 1970–2000 to 2070–2100 will vary from 17.1 to 36.3 percent among the ten watersheds, and from 22.9 to 45.4 percent among twelve coastal regions. The ensemble average of the basin-average annual mean air temperature will increase about 2.52 °C to 2.95 °C from 2010 to 2100. In comparison to the historical period, the change in the 30-year mean basin-average annual mean soil water storage over the ten watersheds will vary from 0.7 to 10.9 percent at the end of 21st century, and that over the twelve coastal regions will vary from −1.7 to 15.8 percent. Ensemble averages of the annual mean flows of the 15 projections show increasing trends for the 10 watersheds, especially in the second half of the 21st century. In comparison to the historical period, the change in the 30-year average annual mean flows will vary from −2.1 to 14.3 percent in the early 21st century, 4.4 to 23.8 percent in the middle 21st century, and 19.1 to 45.8 percent in the end of 21st century.

A Coupled Modeling Approach for Water Management in a River-Reservoir System

A coupled model is an effective tool to understand the nutrient fate associated with hydrodynamic and ecosystem processes and thereby developing a water resource management strategy. This paper presents a coupled modeling approach that consists of a watershed model and a hydrodynamic model to evaluate the nutrient fate in a river–reservoir system. The results obtained from the model showed a good agreement with field observations. The results revealed that the Shuikou reservoir (Fuzhou, China)exhibited complicated hydrodynamic characteristics, which may induce the pattern of nutrient export. Reservoirs can greatly lower water quality as a result of decreasing water movement. Three scenarios were analyzed for water management. The NH₃-N (Ammonia Nitrogen) decreased sharply in the outlet of Shuikou reservoir after NH₃-N level in its tributary was reduced. After removing the farming cages, the water quality of the outlet of Shuikou reservoir was improved significantly. The DO (Dissolved Oxygen) had increased by 3%–10%, NH₃-N had reduced by 5%–17%, and TP (Total Phosphorus) had reduced by 6%–21%. This study demonstrates that the proposed coupled modeling approach can effectively characterize waterway risks for water management in such a river–reservoir system.

Evaluation of the total maximum allocated load of dissolved inorganic nitrogen using a watershed-coastal ocean coupled model

Due to the recent rapid increase in human activity and economic development, many coastal areas have recently experienced a high degree of land-based pollution. Evaluating the total maximum allocated load (TMAL) of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) nutrients and the remaining capacity is of importance for improving water quality. A considerable amount of nutrients derived from the coastal watershed can be found in wet seasons, which is non-negligible for the estimation of remaining capacity. Therefore, we use a watershed-coastal ocean coupled model combined with an optimization algorithm to tackle this issue. In contrast with previous studies, this study provides a method to estimate the spatiotemporal variations in TMALs and we then compare it to the current DIN nutrient load, including both point sources and non-point sources. Our results suggest that the TMAL of Daya Bay (DB), which is located in the northern part of the South China Sea, is about 7976 metric tons per year (t/yr) and ranges from 191 metric tons per month (t/month) to 1072 t/month. The increase of non-point source (NPS) DIN input also plays an important role in daily overload events during wet seasons. Moreover, the TMALs show an inverse exponential correlation with the water age, but only about 65% of the variance is explained. This suggests that the variations from the optimization algorithm and from local water function zoning plans are also important. According to our prediction of the DIN input, the TMAL of DB will soon be exhausted in the next several years. Consequently, prompt actions are necessary to consider the distribution of TMALs in urban developments and to decelerate the rapid growth of DIN input. Therefore, the results of this study will be helpful for both local pollution control and future urban planning.

Evaluating expression of autophagy-related genes in oriental river prawn Macrobrachium nipponense as potential biomarkers for hypoxia exposure

Autophagy, a crucial process for maintaining cellular homeostasis, is under the control of several autophagy-related (ATG) proteins, and is highly conserved in most animals, but its response to adverse environmental conditions is poorly understood in crustaceans. Herein, we hypothesised that autophagy acts as a protective response to hypoxia, and Beclin 1, ATG7 and ATG8 in oriental river prawn (Macrobrachium nipponense) were chosen as potential biomarkers under hypoxia exposure; thus, their full-length cDNA sequences were cloned and characterised. Open reading frames (ORFs) of 1281, 2076 and 360 bp, encoding proteins of 427, 692 and 120 amino acid residues, respectively, were obtained. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated the three M. nipponense proteins do not form a clade with vertebrate homologs. Protein and mRNA levels were investigated in different tissues and developmental stages, and all three were significantly upregulated in a time-dependent manner in the hepatopancreas following hypoxia stress. Biochemical and morphological analysis of hepatocytes revealed that hypoxia increased the abundance of hepatic autophagic vacuoles and stimulated anaerobic metabolism. RNA interference-mediated silencing of ATG8 significantly increased the death rate of M. nipponense juveniles under hypoxia stress conditions. Together, these results suggest that Beclin 1, ATG7 and ATG8 contribute to autophagy-based responses against hypoxia in M. nipponense. The findings also expand our understanding of the potential role of autophagy as an adaptive response against hypoxia toxicity in crustaceans. The results showed that hepatic ATG8 levels may be directly indicative of acute hypoxia in prawns, and provide insight into the time at which hypoxia exposure occurs. Autophagy-related genes expression pattern seems to be sensitive and good biomarkers of acute hypoxia exposure.

Climatically-modulated decline in wind speed may strongly affect eutrophication in shallow lakes

Surface wind speed has declined significantly globally. However, the response of aquatic systems to decreasing wind speeds has received little attention. We examined the effects of a long-term decrease in wind speed on shallow, eutrophic Lake Taihu, China's third largest lake, by combining high-frequency monitoring, long-term meteorological and water quality data with short-term laboratory sediment nutrient release experiments. The annual mean wind speed showed a significant decreasing trend and the maximum continuous days with wind speed <3 m/s increased significantly from 1996 to 2017. The high-frequency monitoring data showed that bottom water hypoxia occurred occasionally in summer and autumn. The water quality data combined with the experimental results suggest that lower wind speed and longer low wind duration can enhance the release of phosphorus (P) from the sediments and increase nitrogen (N) losses, likely via denitrification, because a longer stability period leads to lower dissolved oxygen concentrations near the lake bottom. The results of Bayesian functional Linear regression with Sparse Step functions (Bliss) indicated that wind speed during spring and summer strongly affected chlorophyll a (Chla) concentrations in the summer by enhancing the release of nutrients from the sediments. The results of the structural equation models indicated that declined wind speed might increase phytoplankton biomass (as Chla) by altering nutrient availability. Increasing water temperatures and decreasing wind speeds synergistically enhance water column stability, which may offset some of the immediate benefits of reductions in external nutrient loading by enhancing internal loading. Given predicted global change, it will become increasingly important to reduce the external nutrient loading for overall improvement of water quality in this and other shallow eutrophic lakes.

Modeling Summer Hypoxia Spatial Distribution and Fish Habitat Volume in Artificial Estuarine Waterway

This study analyzes the dissolved oxygen (DO) depletion or hypoxia formation affecting the ecological vulnerability of Gyeongin-Ara Waterway (GAW), an artificial estuarine waterway. The physical, chemical, and biochemical factors affecting the summer hypoxia dynamics and distribution are simulated and the habitat volumes of major fish species are calculated. CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model, is applied for the simulation. Comparison with observation reveals that the salinity stratification, vertical DO gradient, and summer hypoxia characteristics are realistically reproduced by the model. Comprehensive analysis of the spatial distributions of the residence time, salinity, and DO concentration reveal that the residence time is longest at the bottom of a freshwater inflow zone. Accordingly, residence time is identified as the physical factor having the greatest influence on hypoxia. It is also clear that a hypoxic water mass diffuses towards the entire waterway during neap tides and summer, when the seawater inflow decreases. Based on the modeling results, the DO depletion drivers are identified and the hypoxic zone formation and distribution are sufficiently explained. Finally, fish habitat volumes are calculated. In particular, the survival habitat volume of Mugil cephalus is found to decrease by 32–34% as a result of hypoxia from July to August. The model employed in this study could be utilized to establish an operational plan for the waterway, which would increase fish habitat volumes.