Has HIV/AIDS displaced other health funding priorities? Evidence from a new dataset of development aid for health

Analysis of maternal and child health spillover effects in PEPFAR countries

OBJECTIVES

This study examined whether the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) funding had effects beyond HIV, specifically on several measures of maternal and child health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). The results of previous research on the question of PEPFAR health spillovers have been inconsistent. This study, using a large, multicountry panel data set of 157 LMICs including 90 recipient countries, adds to the literature.

DESIGN

Seven indicators including child and maternal mortality, several child vaccination rates and anaemia among childbearing-age women are important population health indicators. Panel data and difference-in-differences estimators (DID) were used to estimate the impact of the PEPFAR programme from inception in 2004 to 2018 using a comparison group of 67 LMICs. Several different models of baseline (2004) covariates were used to help balance the comparison and treatment groups. Staggered DID was used to estimate impacts since all countries did not start receiving aid at PEPFAR's inception.

SETTING

All 157 LMICs from 1990 to 2018.

PARTICIPANTS

90 LMICs receiving PEPFAR aid and cohorts of those countries, including those required to submit annual country operational plans (COP), other recipient countries (non-COP), and three groupings of countries based on cumulative amount of per capita aid received (high, medium, low).

INTERVENTIONS

PEPFAR aid to combat the HIV epidemic.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Maternal mortality and child mortality rates, vaccination rates to protect children for diphtheria, whooping cough and tetanus, measles, HepB3, and tetanus, and prevalence of anaemia in women of childbearing age.

RESULTS

Across PEPFAR recipient countries, large, favourable PEPFAR health effects were found for rates of childhood immunisation, child mortality and maternal mortality. These beneficial health effects were large and significant in all segments of PEPFAR recipient countries studied. We also found significant and favourable programme effects on the prevalence of anaemia in women of childbearing age in PEPFAR recipient countries receiving the most intensive financial support from the PEPFAR programme. Other recipient countries did not demonstrate significant effects on anaemia.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that important health indicators, beyond HIV, have been consistently and favourably influenced by PEPFAR presence. Child and maternal mortality have been substantially reduced, and childhood immunisation rates increased. We also found no evidence of 'crowding out' or negative spillovers in these resource-poor countries. These findings add to the body of evidence that PEPFAR has had favourable health effects beyond HIV. The implications of these findings are that foreign aid for health in one area may have favourable health effects in other areas in recipient countries. More research is needed on the influence of the mechanisms at work that create these spillover health effects of PEPFAR.

Global collective action in mental health financing: Allocation of development assistance for mental health in 142 countries, 2000-2015

Collective action between international donors is central to the mobilisation of global solidarity in global health. This is especially important in mental health where resources remain extremely limited. In this paper I investigate global collective action in mental health financing, looking at the responsiveness of international donors to mental health needs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). I analyse factors at the level of recipient countries (needs, interests, policy environment) associated with allocation of development assistance for mental health (DAMH) using a two-part regression model applied to a time series cross-sectional dataset of 142 LMICs between 2000 and 2015. Findings reveal that international donors' disbursements are not well aligned with mental health needs of recipient countries, and, moreover, contextual factors might be playing more prominent roles in resource allocation. Countries are more likely to receive DAMH if they experience significant outbreaks of infectious diseases or have lower gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and lower market openness. Selected recipient countries are more likely to receive higher DAMH amounts per capita if they have lower GDP per capita, higher government health expenditure, or higher mortality rates due to conflicts or natural disasters. Past DAMH recipients are more likely to be selected and, when selected, to receive higher DAMH amounts per capita. My results demonstrate that more holistic collective action amongst international donors is required to address mental health needs in LMICs. Investments should better reflect needs, particularly during and after emergencies such as COVID-19, and could be amplified by leveraging synergies across other health conditions and sectors.

The rise and fall of global health issues: an arenas model applied to the COVID-19 pandemic shock

Background

The global health agenda is ill-defined as an analytical construct, complicating attempts by scholars and proponents to make claims about the agenda status of issues. We draw on Kingdon’s definition of the agenda and Hilgartner and Bosk’s public arenas model to conceptualize the global health agenda as those subjects or problems to which collectivities of actors operating nationally and globally are paying serious attention at any given time. We propose an arenas model for global health agenda setting and illustrate its potential utility by assessing priority indicators in five arenas, including international aid, pharmaceutical industry, scientific research, news media and civil society. We then apply the model to illustrate how the status of established (HIV/AIDS), emergent (diabetes) and rising (Alzheimer’s disease) issues might be measured, compared and change in light of a pandemic shock (COVID-19).

Results

Coronavirus priority indicators rose precipitously in all five arenas in 2020, reflecting the kind of punctuation often caused by focusing events. The magnitude of change varied somewhat by arena, with the most pronounced shift in the global news media arena. Priority indicators for the other issues showed decreases of up to 21% and increases of up to 41% between 2019 and 2020, with increases suggesting that the agenda for global health issues expanded in some arenas in 2020— COVID-19 did not consistently displace priority for HIV/AIDS, diabetes or Alzheimer’s disease, though it might have for other issues.

Conclusions

We advance an arenas model as a novel means of addressing conceptual and measurement challenges that often undermine the validity of claims concerning the global health agenda status of problems and contributing causal factors. Our presentation of the model and illustrative analysis lays the groundwork for more systematic investigation of trends in global health agenda setting. Further specification of the model is needed to ensure accurate representation of vital national and transnational arenas and their interactions, applicability to a range of disease-specific, health systems, governance and policy issues, and sensitivity to subtler influences on global health agenda setting than pandemic shocks.

Sustainable development for global mental health: a typology and systematic evidence mapping of external actors in low-income and middle-income countries

INTRODUCTION

Mental disorders account for a substantial burden of disease and costs in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), but attract few resources. With LMIC governments often under economic pressure, an understanding of the external funding landscape is urgently needed. This study develops a new typology of external actors in global health adapted for the sustainable development goals (SDGs) era and uses it to systematically map available evidence on external actors in global mental health.

METHODS

The new typology was developed in line with conceptualisation in the literature and the SDGs to include 11 types of external actors for health in LMICs. Five databases (EconLit, Embase, Global Health, MEDLINE, PsycINFO) were searched for manuscripts published in peer-reviewed journals in English, French, Italian, Portuguese or Spanish between 1 January 2000 and 31 July 2018 and reporting information on external actors for mental disorders in LMICs. Records were screened by abstract, then full-text against inclusion criteria. Data were extracted and synthesised using narrative analysis.

RESULTS

79 studies were included in the final review. Five were quantitative studies analysing the resource flow of development assistance for mental health globally over the last two decades. The remainder were qualitative studies providing a description of external actors: the majority of them were published in the last decade, focused on Africa, and on public sector (bilateral and multilateral governmental organisations) and third sector organisations (non-governmental organisations). Evidence was particularly scarce for for-profit organisations and individual households.

CONCLUSION

This study reveals opportunities for unlocking additional funding for global mental health in the SDG-era from an ecosystem of external actors, and highlights the need to coordinate efforts and to use sustainable, ethical approaches to disbursements. Further research is needed to understand all external actors and the allocation of their contributions in different settings.

Sector-wide or disease-specific? Implications of trends in development assistance for health for the SDG era

The record of the Millennium Development Goals broadly reflects the trade-offs of disease-specific financing: substantial progress in particular areas, facilitated by time-bound targets that are easy to measure and communicate, which shifted attention and resources away from other areas, masked inequalities and exacerbated fragmentation. In many ways, the Sustainable Development Goals reflect a profound shift towards a more holistic, system-wide approach. To inform responses to this shift, this article builds upon existing work on aggregate trends in donor financing, bringing together what have largely been disparate analyses of sector-wide and disease-specific financing approaches. Looking across the last 26 years, the article examines how international donors have allocated development assistance for health (DAH) between these two approaches and how attempts to bridge them have fared in practice. Since 1990, DAH has overwhelmingly favoured disease-specific earmarks over health sector support, with the latter peaking in 1998. Attempts to integrate system strengthening elements into disease-specific funding mechanisms have varied by disease, and more integrated funding platforms have failed to gain traction. Health sector support largely remains an unfulfilled promise: proportionately low amounts (albeit absolute increases) which have been inconsistently allocated, and the overall approach inconsistently applied in practice. Thus, the expansive orientation of the Sustainable Development Goals runs counter to trends over the last several decades. Financing proposals and efforts to adapt global health institutions must acknowledge and account for the persistent challenges in the financing and implementation of integrated, cross-sector policies. National and subnational experimentation may offer alternatives within and beyond the health sector.

Contraceptive Practice in Sub-Saharan Africa

Forty eight of the African continent's 54 sovereign states are located in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region, with the government of each defining and shaping its own health services and delivery systems. This paper reviews the trends and patterns of contraceptive practice in the region. Using survey data available from the Demographic and Health Surveys and Performance Monitoring and Accountability 2020, the study finds modern contraceptive practice to be on the rise overall but with much geographic variation. The contraceptive methods most frequently used are injectables and, more recently, implants. Higher levels of use are observed among unmarried sexually active than married females. Although use is rising, contraceptive discontinuation rates are also high. Recent program initiatives discussed include expanding long-acting contraceptive options, promoting and delivering contraceptive methods in the postpartum period, and relying on community health workers for contraceptive outreach and service delivery. SSA's family planning situation remains challenged by weak health systems which must address competing priorities to manage disease prevention as well as primary health care. Increasing investments in family planning delivery in many SSA countries, however, augur for continued rapid uptake of modern contraception, possibly matching if not outpacing the record of other regions.

Development assistance for health: past trends, associations, and the future of international financial flows for health

BACKGROUND

Disbursements of development assistance for health (DAH) have risen substantially during the past several decades. More recently, the international community's attention has turned to other international challenges, introducing uncertainty about the future of disbursements for DAH.

METHODS

We collected audited budget statements, annual reports, and project-level records from the main international agencies that disbursed DAH from 1990 to the end of 2015. We standardised and combined records to provide a comprehensive set of annual disbursements. We tracked each dollar of DAH back to the source and forward to the recipient. We removed transfers between agencies to avoid double-counting and adjusted for inflation. We classified assistance into nine primary health focus areas: HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, maternal health, newborn and child health, other infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, Ebola, and sector-wide approaches and health system strengthening. For our statistical analysis, we grouped these health focus areas into two categories: MDG-related focus areas (HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, child and newborn health, and maternal health) and non-MDG-related focus areas (other infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, sector-wide approaches, and other). We used linear regression to test for structural shifts in disbursement patterns at the onset of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs; ie, from 2000) and the global financial crisis (impact estimated to occur in 2010). We built on past trends and associations with an ensemble model to estimate DAH through the end of 2040.

FINDINGS

In 2015, US$36·4 billion of DAH was disbursed, marking the fifth consecutive year of little change in the amount of resources provided by global health development partners. Between 2000 and 2009, DAH increased at 11·3% per year, whereas between 2010 and 2015, annual growth was just 1·2%. In 2015, 29·7% of DAH was for HIV/AIDS, 17·9% was for child and newborn health, and 9·8% was for maternal health. Linear regression identifies three distinct periods of growth in DAH. Between 2000 and 2009, MDG-related DAH increased by $290·4 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 174·3 million to 406·5 million) per year. These increases were significantly greater than were increases in non-MDG DAH during the same period (p=0·009), and were also significantly greater than increases in the previous period (p<0·0001). Between 2000 and 2009, growth in DAH was highest for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Since 2010, DAH for maternal health and newborn and child health has continued to climb, although DAH for HIV/AIDS and most other health focus areas has remained flat or decreased. Our estimates of future DAH based on past trends and associations present a wide range of potential futures, although our mean estimate of $64·1 billion (95% UI $30·4 billion to $161·8 billion) shows an increase between now and 2040, although with a large uncertainty interval.

INTERPRETATION

Our results provide evidence of two substantial shifts in DAH growth during the past 26 years. DAH disbursements increased faster in the first decade of the 2000s than in the 1990s, but DAH associated with the MDGs increased the most out of all focus areas. Since 2010, limited growth has characterised DAH and we expect this pattern to persist. Despite the fact that DAH is still growing, albeit minimally, DAH is shifting among the major health focus areas, with relatively little growth for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. These changes in the growth and focus of DAH will have critical effects on health services in some low-income countries. Coordination and collaboration between donors and domestic governments is more important than ever because they have a great opportunity and responsibility to ensure robust health systems and service provision for those most in need.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Has the Swap Influenced Aid Flows in the Health Sector?

The sector wide approach (SWAp) emerged during the 1990s as a mechanism for managing aid from the multiplicity of development partners that operate in the recipient country's health, education or agricultural sectors. Health SWAps aim to give increased control to recipient governments, allowing greater domestic influence over how health aid is allocated and facilitating allocative efficiency gains. This paper assesses whether health SWAps have increased recipient control of health aid via increased general sector-support and have facilitated (re)allocations of health aid across disease areas. Using a uniquely compiled panel data set of countries receiving development assistance for health over the period 1990-2010, we employ fixed effects and dynamic panel models to assess the impact of introducing a health SWAp on levels of general sector-support for health and allocations of health-sector aid across key funding silos (including HIV, 'maternal and child health' and 'sector-support'). Our results suggest that health SWAps have influenced health-sector aid flows in a manner consistent with increased recipient control and improvements in allocative efficiency.

Financing HIV programming: how much should low- and middle-income countries and their donors pay?

Global HIV control funding falls short of need. To maximize health outcomes, it is critical that national governments sustain reasonable commitments, and that international donor assistance be distributed according to country needs and funding gaps. We develop a country classification framework in terms of actual versus expected national domestic funding, considering resource needs and donor financing. With UNAIDS and World Bank data, we examine domestic and donor HIV program funding in relation to need in 84 low- and middle-income countries. We estimate expected domestic contributions per person living with HIV (PLWH) as a function of per capita income, relative size of the health sector, and per capita foreign debt service. Countries are categorized according to levels of actual versus expected domestic contributions, and resource gap. Compared to national resource needs (UNAIDS Investment Framework), we identify imbalances among countries in actual versus expected domestic and donor contributions: 17 countries, with relatively high HIV prevalence and GNI per capita, have domestic funding below expected (median per PLWH $143 and $376, respectively), yet total available funding including from donors would exceed the need ($368 and $305, respectively) if domestic contribution equaled expected. Conversely, 27 countries have actual domestic funding above the expected (medians $294 and $149) but total (domestic+donor) funding does not meet estimated need ($685 and $1,173). Across the 84 countries, in 2009, estimated resource need totaled $10.3 billion, actual domestic contributions $5.1 billion and actual donor contributions $3.7 billion. If domestic contributions would increase to the expected level in countries where the actual was below expected, total domestic contributions would increase to $7.4 billion, turning a funding gap of $1.5 billion into a surplus of $0.8 billion. Even with imperfect funding and resource-need data, the proposed country classification could help improve coherence and efficiency in domestic and international allocations.

HIV donor funding has both boosted and curbed the delivery of different non-HIV health services in sub-Saharan Africa

Donor funding for HIV programs has increased rapidly over the past decade, raising questions about whether other health services in recipient-country health systems are being crowded out or strengthened. This article--an investigation of the impacts of increased HIV donor funding on non-HIV health services in sub-Saharan Africa during 2003-10--provides evidence of both effects. HIV aid in some countries has crowded out the delivery of childhood immunizations, especially in countries with the lowest density of health care providers. At the same time, HIV aid may have positively affected some maternal health services, such as prenatal blood testing. These mixed results suggest that donors should be more attentive to domestic resource constraints, such as limited numbers of health workers; should integrate more fully with existing health systems; and should address these constraints up front to limit possible negative effects on the delivery of other health services.

Disruptive innovations for designing and diffusing evidence-based interventions

Evidence-based therapeutic and preventive intervention programs (EBIs) have been growing exponentially. Yet EBIs have not been broadly adopted in the United States. In order for our EBI science to significantly reduce disease burden, we need to critically reexamine our scientific conventions and norms. Innovation may be spurred by reexamining the traditional biomedical model for validating, implementing, and diffusing EBI products and science. The model of disruptive innovations suggests that we reengineer EBIs on the basis of their most robust features in order to serve more people in less time and at lower cost. A disruptive innovation provides a simpler and less expensive alternative that meets the essential needs for the majority of consumers and is more accessible, scalable, replicable, and sustainable. Examples of disruptive innovations from other fields include minute clinics embedded in retail chain drug stores, $2 generic eyeglasses, automated teller machines, and telemedicine. Four new research approaches will be required to support disruptive innovations in EBI science: synthesize common elements across EBIs; experiment with new delivery formats (e.g., consumer controlled, self-directed, brief, paraprofessional, coaching, and technology and media strategies); adopt market strategies to promote and diffuse EBI science, knowledge, and products; and adopt continuous quality improvement as a research paradigm for systematically improving EBIs, based on ongoing monitoring data and feedback. EBI science can have more impact if it can better leverage what we know from existing EBIs in order to inspire, engage, inform, and support families and children to adopt and sustain healthy daily routines and lifestyles.

Transitioning HIV care and treatment programs in southern Africa to full local management

Global AIDS programs such as the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) face a challenging health care management transition. HIV care must evolve from vertically-organized, externally-supported efforts to sustainable, locally controlled components that are integrated into the horizontal primary health care systems of host nations. We compared four southern African nations in AIDS care, financial, literacy, and health worker capacity parameters (2005 to 2009) to contrast in their capacities to absorb the huge HIV care and prevention endeavors that are now managed with international technical and fiscal support. Botswana has a relatively high national income, a small population, and an advanced HIV/AIDS care program; it is well poised to take on management of its HIV/AIDS programs. South Africa has had a slower start, given HIV denialism philosophies of the previous government leadership. Nonetheless, South Africa has the national income, health care management, and health worker capacity to succeed in fully local management. The sheer magnitude of the burden is daunting, however, and South Africa will need continuing fiscal assistance. In contrast, Zambia and Mozambique have comparatively lower per capita incomes, many fewer health care workers per capita, and lower national literacy rates. It is improbable that fully independent management of their HIV programs is feasible on the timetable being contemplated by donors, nor is locally sustainable financing conceivable at present. A tailored nation-by-nation approach is needed for the transition to full local capacitation; donor nation policymakers must ensure that global resources and technical support are not removed prematurely.

Does donor assistance for HIV respond to media pressure?

HIV/AIDS is a heavily mediatised disease. In this article, we test whether media attention is affecting donors' disbursement of aid for HIV to African countries. We use information available on the number of articles and press documents on HIV issues and other health concerns published in donor countries to construct a proxy of media coverage. This proxy is then included as an explanatory variable in a regression of aid for HIV to Africa. After controlling for several donor characteristics, we find that greater media coverage increases aid disbursement. This may be good news for the HIV campaign but may result in displacement effects to the extent that other diseases that cause greater mortality and morbidity receive less media coverage than HIV and thus less health aid.