An increase in the number of predictive factors augments the likelihood of malignancy in branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas

Risk of pancreatic cancer and high-grade dysplasia in resected main-duct and mixed-type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms: A prevalence meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines recommend the resection of main duct- (MD) and mixed-type (MT) intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) based on specific risk criteria to prevent or treat pancreatic cancer in selected patients. This paradigm follows high rates of malignancy observed in published surgical series. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to provide robust, pooled rates of invasive carcinoma (IC) and high-grade dysplasia (HGD) in resected MD- and MT-IPMNs of the pancreas.

METHODS

The PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane CENTRAL databases were systematically searched. Studies that reported rates of IC or HGD, diagnosed by histopathology of surgical specimens, in MD- or MT-IPMNs were included. Pooled prevalence with 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) was calculated using a random effects model. Galbraith plots were used to evaluate heterogeneity. Risk of bias was assessed using the National Institutes of Health Quality Assessment Tool.

RESULTS

Based on 51 studies, 59 % (95 % CI: 54 %, 64 %) of resected MD- and MT-IPMN had IC or HGD, with IC in up to 39 % (95 % CI: 33 %, 44 %) of lesions and HGD in 20 % (95 % CI: 16 %, 25 %). Most studies were deemed to be of good quality and Galbraith plots demonstrated high concordance.

CONCLUSIONS

These results confirm the rates of IC and HGD in resected MD/MT-IPMNs. However, a significant proportion of patients have benign lesions, and future research is needed to develop precise diagnostics to distinguish between patients with and without high-risk or cancerous disease.

The Revised Kyoto Criteria and Risk of Malignancy Among Patients With Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The revised Kyoto guidelines have a new catalog of high-risk stigmata and worrisome features for the risk stratification of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). We aimed to validate the stratification system in terms of short- and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma.

METHODS

We included 3336 patients diagnosed with IPMNs in 2000-2021 and examined short-term (≤6 months) and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma diagnosis. We used the multivariable competing-risks proportional hazards regression model to calculate subdistribution hazard ratios for long-term incidence of pancreatic carcinoma with adjustment for potential confounders.

RESULTS

In short-term analyses, pancreatic carcinomas were prevalent predominantly in IPMNs with high-risk stigmata (49% vs 1.3% and 0.05% in IPMNs with worrisome features and no risk factors, respectively). In long-term analyses of worrisome features, the main pancreatic duct diameter of 5-9.9 mm, acute pancreatitis, and IPMN growth rate of 2.5 mm/y were associated with a high incidence with multivariable subdistribution hazard ratios of 3.46 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.04-5.89), 5.65 (95% CI, 1.86-17.2), and 3.83 (95% CI, 2.14-6.86), respectively. An increasing number of worrisome features at baseline was associated with a higher prevalence and incidence of pancreatic carcinoma (Ptrend < .001). Patients with 1, 2, and 3-4 worrisome features had multivariable subdistribution hazard ratios for pancreatic cancer incidence of 1.43 (95% CI, 0.93-2.19), 2.17 (95% CI, 1.17-4.05), and 10.1 (95% CI, 4.20-24.5), respectively (vs no positive feature).

CONCLUSIONS

The revised Kyoto criteria stratify IPMN patients well in terms of the short- and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma diagnosis, potentially informing personalized patient management.

International evidence-based Kyoto guidelines for the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas

This study group aimed to revise the 2017 international consensus guidelines for the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) of the pancreas, and mainly focused on five topics; the revision of high-risk stigmata (HRS) and worrisome features (WF), surveillance of non-resected IPMN, surveillance after resection of IPMN, revision of pathological aspects, and investigation of molecular markers in cyst fluid. A new development from the prior guidelines is that systematic reviews were performed for each one of these topics, and published separately to provide evidence-based recommendations. One of the highlights of these new "evidence-based guidelines" is to propose a new management algorithm, and one major revision is to include into the assessment of HRS and WF the imaging findings from endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) and the results of cytological analysis from EUS-guided fine needle aspiration technique, when this is performed. Another key element of the current guidelines is to clarify whether lifetime surveillance for small IPMNs is required, and recommends two options, "stop surveillance" or "continue surveillance for possible development of concomitant pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma", for small unchanged BD-IPMN after 5 years surveillance. Several other points are also discussed, including identifying high-risk features for recurrence in patients who underwent resection of non-invasive IPMN with negative surgical margin, summaries of the recent observations in the pathology of IPMN. In addition, the emerging role of cyst fluid markers that can aid in distinguishing IPMN from other pancreatic cysts and identify those IPMNs that harbor high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma is discussed.

A Clinical Guide to the Management of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms: the Need for a More Graded Approach in Clinical Decision-making

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) have become a very common diagnosis and represent a spectrum of disease that ranges from benign to malignant lesions. Presently, clinical and radiographic features are used to predict the presence of high-grade dysplasia and invasive cancer to inform treatment decisions of whether to pursuit surgical resection or continued surveillance. However, the natural history of IPMNs is still not completely understood, with guidelines from different societies providing contradictory recommendations. This underscores the challenge in balancing the risk of missing cancer with long-term surveillance and the morbidity associated with surgical resection. In this review, we aim to reconcile the differences in the guidelines' recommendations and provide a clinical framework to the management of IPMNs with hopes of adding clarity to how treatment decisions should be made. We also highlight recent advances made in the field and future efforts that can minimize rates of missing cancer while also reducing the number of unnecessary operations.

Number of Worrisome Features and Risk of Malignancy in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm

BACKGROUND

The 2017 revised International Association of Pancreatology guidelines for management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) describe worrisome features (WF) and high-risk stigmata (HRS), recommending resection in the latter and further work-up and close surveillance for patients with WF. The effect of multiple WF on the likelihood of malignancy has not been evaluated.

STUDY DESIGN

Eight hundred ten patients who underwent pancreatic resection for IPMN in 2 tertiary referral centers were identified from prospective institutional databases. Patients were retrospectively categorized into subgroups according to the number of WF or HRS and presence of malignancy, defined as high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or invasive cancer on final pathology.

RESULTS

Three hundred seventy-nine (47%) patients had HRS, 370 (46%) had 1 or more WF, and 61 patients (7%) had neither. Malignancy was present in 70% (n = 267) of patients with HRS and in 30% (n = 127) of those with WF. Only 3 of 61 patients without WF/HRS had malignancy, and all only in the form of HGD. The risk of malignancy increased in a stepwise fashion with the number of WF, to 22%, 34%, and 59% with 1, 2, and 3 WF, respectively (p = 0.001), and reached 100% in patients with 4 or more WF. Although the relative risks differed for particular WF, the areas under the curve were not statistically different.

CONCLUSION

We confirm that presence of HRS in IPMN is associated with a very high likelihood of malignancy. The presence of a single WF has a malignancy risk of 22%, and additional WF increase this risk significantly. When 3 or more WF are present, the risk is similar to that of HRS.

Predictors of malignancy in main duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The International Consensus Guidelines updated in 2017 recommended surgery to all main duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (MD-IPMNs) with the main pancreatic duct (MPD) of 10 mm or more and those with mural nodules regardless of size. The aim of the present study was to identify predictors of malignancy in MD-IPMN among preoperative factors including MPD and mural nodule size.

METHODS

Twenty-six benign MD-IPMNs (7 resected and 19 nonresected) and 32 malignant MD-IPMNs (31 resected and 1 nonresected) were included in the study. MRCP, CT, EUS, and cytology were performed using pancreatic juice collected by endoscopic retrograde pancrestography (ERP). Resected IPMNs were classified as benign or malignant by histologic examination and nonresected MD-IPMNs by imaging, cytology, and observation. Cutoff values of candidate parameters were determined by receiver operating characteristic curves. Univariate and multivariate analyses by regression model were performed.

RESULTS

MPD and mural nodule size and cytology results differed significantly between benign and malignant groups. Cutoff values of MPD and mural nodule sizes were 15 mm and 10 mm with areas under the curve of .66 and .86, respectively. Mural nodules of 10 mm or more (odds ratio, 8.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-61.2; P = .038) and positive cytology (odds ratio, 42.5; 95% confidence interval, 4.10-439; P = .002) were shown to be independent predictors of malignancy by multivariate analysis. When MD-IPMNs with either predictor were diagnosed to be malignant, sensitivities, specificities, and overall accuracy for malignancy were 94%, 85%, and 90%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Mural nodules of 10 mm or more and positive cytology were independent predictors of malignancy in MD-IPMN.

Clinical suspicion of pancreatic cancer despite negative endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration biopsy

BACKGROUND

The early and accurate diagnosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is vital for improving the efficacy of therapeutic interventions and to provide patients with the best chance of survival. While endoscopic ultrasound-fine needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) has been demonstrated to be a reliable and accurate diagnostic tool for solid pancreatic neoplasms, the ongoing management of patients with a high clinical suspicion for malignancy but with a negative EUS-FNA biopsy result can prove a challenge.

METHODS

We describe five patients from a single centre who presented for further work-up of a pancreatic mass and/or imaging features concerning for a periampullary malignancy.

RESULTS

All patients had at least one EUS-FNA biopsy performed which returned no malignant cells on cytology. Despite these negative cytology results, all patients underwent further invasive investigation through upfront resection (pancreaticoduodenectomy) or extra-pancreatic biopsy (laparoscopic biopsy of peritoneal nodule) due to worrisome features on imaging, biochemical factors and clinical presentation culminating in a high degree of suspicion for malignancy. The final tissue histopathological diagnosis in all patients was pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

CONCLUSION

This case series highlights the important clinical findings, imaging and biochemical features which need to be considered in patients who have high suspicion for malignancy despite having a negative EUS-FNA cytology result. In these patients with a high index of suspicion, surgical intervention through an upfront resection or further invasive investigation should not be delayed.

Imaging Features for Predicting High-Grade Dysplasia or Malignancy in Branch Duct Type Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The consensus guidelines for branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) of the pancreas are mostly based on imaging features. This study aimed to determine imaging features and their diagnostic accuracy for predicting high-grade dysplasia (HGD)/malignancy in BD-IPMN, including mixed type.

METHODS

The PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched, and data were extracted from relevant studies. As the main diagnostic accuracy index, diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) of imaging features for diagnosing HGD/malignancy in BD-IPMNs were pooled using the random-effects model. A bivariate random-effects approach was used to construct summary receiver operating characteristic curves for sensitivity and specificity estimation.

RESULTS

The pooled DOR was the highest for the enhanced solid component/mural nodule (MN) (DOR, 12.21; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 6.14-24.27), followed by a main pancreatic duct (MPD) diameter of 10 mm or greater (DOR, 7.93; 95 % CI, 3.02-20.83), solid component (DOR, 4.85; 95 % CI, 2.49-9.42), lymphadenopathy (DOR, 4.84; 95 % CI, 1.11-21.06), MN (DOR, 4.48; 95 % CI, 3.15-6.39), an MPD diameter of 5 mm or greater (DOR, 3.69; 95 % CI, 2.62-5.19), abrupt change in MPD caliber with distal pancreatic atrophy (DOR, 2.65; 95 % CI, 1.66-4.24), thickened/enhancing walls (DOR, 2.38; 95 % CI, 1.57-3.60), and cyst size of 3 cm or larger (DOR, 1.98; 95 % CI, 1.48-2.64). The largest area under the curve (0.89 and 0.95, respectively) and high specificity (0.95 and 0.98, respectively) also were found for enhanced solid component/MN and an MPD diameter of 10 mm or greater, albeit with low sensitivity (0.38 and 0.14, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The aforementioned imaging features could aid in predicting HGD/malignancy of BD-IPMN. Furthermore, enhanced solid component/MN and an MPD diameter of 10 mm or greater were the most important predictors of HGD/malignancy in BD-IPMN and should be considered as indications for surgery.

Clinical Utility and Limitation of Diagnostic Ability for Different Degrees of Dysplasia of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas Using 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose-Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography

Simple Summary

Elucidating risk factors for different degrees of dysplasia of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) of the pancreas is important in determining strategies for management. In this study, we searched for risk factors for different degrees of dysplasia of IPMNs. Our study indicated that there were no useful factors that significantly differentiated low-grade dysplasia and high-grade dysplasia; however, ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose–positron emission tomography/computed tomography is useful for differentiating between non-invasive and invasive IPMNs. Our results offer critical information that may determine surgical treatment strategies.

Abstract

The diagnostic value of ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) uptake in the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) of the pancreas remains unclear. This study aimed to assess the role of FDG uptake in the diagnosis of different degrees of dysplasia of IPMNs. We retrospectively analyzed the following three points in 84 patients with IPMNs: (1) risk factors to predict high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and invasive carcinoma (INV); (2) the relationship between FDG uptake and glucose transporter 1 (GLUT-1) expression; and (3) the relationship between FDG uptake and the presence of mural nodules. The histopathological diagnosis was low-grade dysplasia (LGD) in 43 patients, HGD in 16, and INV in 25. The maximum standardized uptake value (SUV-max) was significantly higher in INV than in LGD/HGD (p < 0.0001, p = 0.0136). The sensitivity and specificity to discriminate INV from LGD/HGD were 80.0% and 86.2%, respectively, using the receiver operator characteristic curve, when the optimal cutoff score of SUV-max was set at 4.03. Those values were not different between HGD and LGD. More than half of HGD patients had low GLUT-1 expression. Taken together, FDG-PET/CT is useful in distinguishing between non-invasive and invasive IPMN. Our results offer critical information that may determine surgical treatment strategies.

Assessment of Malignancy Potential in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas on MDCT

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVE

To assess the malignancy potential of intraduct papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) on multidetector-row computerized tomography according to the 2012 International Consensus Guidelines (ICG).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study retrospectively collected IPMNs confirmed by surgery from 2016 to 2019. The imaging findings of IPMNs were analyzed. IPMNs were classified as malignancy in the presence of high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma and began in the presence of low- and intermediate-grade dysplasia.

RESULTS

A total of 207 patients (mean age: 63.7 ± 7.9 years) were included, and the prevalence of malignancy was 28.0% (58 of 207). According to the 2012 ICG, the imaging findings of IPMNs were divided into worrisome features (WFs) and high-risk stigmata (HRS). The malignancy of IPMN with only one WF was relatively low (1.4%, 3 of 207). In multivariate regression analyses, the independent factors of IPMNs were enhanced mural nodule ≥5 mm (odds ratio [OR] = 19.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.8-55.4), abrupt change in the main pancreatic duct caliber with distal pancreatic atrophy (OR = 4.6, 95%CI 1.67-12.71), and thickened enhanced cyst walls (OR = 2.9, 95%CI 1.1-8.2). When the presence of more than two WFs or HRS (score ≥ 3) was regarded as indicating the malignancy potential of IPMNs on multidetector-row computerized tomography, the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were 89.7%, 75.8%, 79.7%, 59.1%, and 95.0%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

According to the ICG in 2012, patients with IPMNs with only one WF have a low risk for malignancy, and the presence of at least two WFs or any HRS (score ≥3) suggests malignant IPMNs.

Predictive Features of Malignancy in Branch Duct Type Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas: A Meta-Analysis

Simple Summary

Currently, there are several guidelines that are widely used to establish the treatment strategy for branch duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms. Although there are some common grounds, there are discrepancies on which features they adopt, how much each feature is weighted, and how the features are combined. Furthermore, some of the features are based on lower level evidences or expert opinions. The aim of this meta-analysis was to investigate important clinical, radiological, and biochemical risk factors for malignancy and their impact as predictors. This study found symptom, size, cyst wall thickening, presence of mural nodule, change in main pancreatic duct caliber, lymphadenopathy, CA 19-9, and CEA as risk factors. Lymphadenopathy (odd ratio [OR]: 8.55), abrupt caliber change (OR: 7.41), and mural nodule (OR: 4.10) had the highest odd ratios. We expect the higher level evidences of this study to help shape better guidelines and reduce discrepancies among future guidelines.

Abstract

The current guidelines on branch duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) recommend various predictive features of malignancy as well as different treatment strategies. This study aimed to identify the risk factors for malignancy with higher level of evidence. A meta-analysis was performed on 40 literatures published between 2000 and 2019. These literatures included 6301 patients with pathologically proven IPMN. Malignancy was defined as high-grade dysplasia and invasive carcinoma. It was significantly associated with symptoms (odds ratio [OR] 1.35, confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.79), size ≥ 3 cm (OR 1.90, CI 1.51–2.40), cystic wall thickening (OR 2.53, CI 1.50–4.27), mural nodule (OR 4.10, CI 3.38–4.97), main pancreatic duct dilatation (OR 2.98, CI 2.11–4.21), abrupt caliber change of the pancreatic duct (OR 7.41, CI 2.49–22.06), lymphadenopathy (OR 8.55, CI 3.25–22.51), elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (OR 4.01, CI 2.55–6.28), and elevated carcinoembryonic antigen (OR 2.04, CI 1.60–2.61). Multilocular cysts and multiple cysts did not show a significant association with malignancy. This study examined the clinical, radiological, and biochemical features of BD-IPMN, often used as malignancy predictors according to the widely used guidelines. The results confirmed that all the features currently being used are valid.

Risk of malignancy in small pancreatic cysts decreases over time

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cysts <15 mm without worrisome features have practically no risk of malignancy at the time of diagnosis but this can change over time. Optimal duration of follow-up is a matter of debate. We evaluated predictors of malignancy and attempted to identify a time to safely discontinue surveillance.

METHODS

Bi-centric study utilizing prospectively collected databases of patients with pancreatic cysts measuring <15 mm and without worrisome features who underwent surveillance at the Massachusetts General Hospital (1988-2017) and at the University of Verona Hospital Trust (2000-2016). The risk of malignant transformation was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method and parametric survival models, and predictors of malignancy were evaluated using Cox regression.

RESULTS

806 patients were identified. Median follow-up was 58 months (6-347). Over time, 58 (7.2%) cysts were resected and of those, 11 had high grade dysplasia (HGD) or invasive cancer. Three additional patients had unresectable cancer for a total rate of malignancy of 1.7%. Predictors of development of malignancy included an increase in size ≥2.5 mm/year (HR = 29.54, 95% CI: 9.39-92.91, P < 0.001) and the development of worrisome features (HR = 9.17, 95% CI: 2.99-28.10, P = 0.001). Comparison of parametric survival models suggested that the risk of malignancy decreased after three years of surveillance and was lower than 0.2% after five years.

CONCLUSIONS

Pancreatic cysts <15  mm at the time of diagnosis have a very low risk of malignant transformation. Our findings indicate the risk decreases over time. Size increase of ≥2.5 mm/year is the strongest predictor of malignancy.

Surgical indication for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm without mural nodule ≥5 mm

BACKGROUND

In intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm, a mural nodule ≥5 mm is an important predictor of malignancy. Surgical indication is less clear in cases of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm without mural nodule ≥5 mm. This is a retrospective study evaluating predictors of high-grade dysplasia or invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm without mural nodule ≥5 mm.

METHODS

Among consecutive patients who underwent surgery for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm between 1999 and 2018, 174 had intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm with mural nodule ≥5 mm (mural nodule[+] ≥5 mm group). The remaining 155 patients had intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm but did not have mural nodule ≥5 mm: 24 patients with mural nodule <5 mm (mural nodule[+] <5 mm group) and 131 patients without mural nodule (mural nodule[-] group). We investigated predictors of high-grade dysplasia or invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm in cases of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm without mural nodule ≥5 mm.

RESULTS

The frequency of high-grade dysplasia invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm was significantly higher in the mural nodule(+) ≥5 mm group (87.4%) than in the mural nodule(+) <5 mm group (37.5%, P < .001) and mural nodule(-) group (45.0%, P < .001). However, frequency was not significantly different between mural nodule(+) <5 mm and mural nodule(-) groups (P = .494). Multivariate analysis showed three independent predictors of high-grade dysplasia invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm without mural nodule ≥5 mm: branch cyst ≥40 mm (P = .038, odds ratio 3.704; 95% confidence interval, 1.075-12.821), positive cytology of pancreatic juice (P = .039, odds ratio 16.792; 95% confidence interval, 1.152-244.744), and carcinoembryonic antigen in pancreatic juice ≥30 mg/mL (P < .001, odds ratio 14.925; 95% confidence interval, 4.525-50.0).

CONCLUSION

For cases of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm without mural nodule ≥5 mm, large cysts, positive cytology of the pancreatic juice, and high levels of carcinoembryonic antigen in pancreatic juice may be useful to determine surgical indication, although further studies are needed to confirm these results.

Development of a new risk score for invasive cancer in branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms according to morphological characterization by EUS

Background and Objective

The management of branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) is determined by a number of guidelines. The current weight of risk factors by EUS predicting invasive cancer is unknown. The aim of this study is to develop a risk score for early prediction of invasive cancer according to morphological characterization by EUS in a surgical cohort.

Materials and Methods

This is an observational, multicenter retrospective study. All consecutive patients with a histologically proven BD-IPMN who underwent previous EUS between 2005 and 2017 were included. Morphological features by EUS were evaluated. A score using a logistic regression model was performed to assess the risk of invasive cancer.

Results

Of 335 patients who underwent pancreatic surgery, 131 (median age: 66 years, 50.4% - male) were included. By multivariable analysis, lymph nodes (odds ratio [OR]: 17.7 [confidence interval (CI) 95%: 2.8-112.6], P = 0.002, 4 points), main pancreatic duct ≥10 mm (OR: 8.6 [CI 95%: 1.9-39.5], P = 0.006, 2 points), abrupt change of pancreatic duct (OR: 5.5 [CI 95%: 1.4-22.2], P = 0.016, 1.5 points), and solid component (OR: 4.2 [CI 95%: 1.3-13.6], P = 0.017, 1 point) were independent factors associated with invasive cancer and included in the model. The following categories of the score (0-8.5 points) - A (0-1), B (1.5-3), C (3.5-5), and D (5.5-8.5 points) - presented a positive predictive value of 8.5%, 38.9%, 62.5%, and 100%, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.857 (P < 0.001), with an overall sensitivity and specificity of 84% and 70% in the internal validation of the score.

Conclusion

This EUS predictive score for invasive cancer in BD-IPMN has a high accuracy and could be an additional tool to consider in patient management.

Risk of advanced lesions in patients with branch-duct IPMN and relative indications for surgery according to European evidence-based guidelines

BACKGROUND

European evidence-based guidelines proposed surgery for branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) based on the presence of 1-2 relative indications, depending on the comorbidity burden.

AIMS

To assess the accuracy of the guidelines in patients with relative indications in a surgical cohort of demonstrated BD-IPMNs.

METHODS

This report describes a multi-centre, observational, retrospective study. All consecutive patients with relative indications and histologically confirmed BD-IPMN were included. The main outcome was risk of invasive carcinoma in patients with relative indications.

RESULTS

Ninety-one patients with BD-IPMN underwent surgery because of absolute (n = 21), relative (n = 60), or no formal indications (n = 10). In total, there were 60 patients (mean age: 66 ± 9, 50% male) with one (n = 35, 58.3%) or ≥2 relative indications (n = 25, 41.7%). The global advanced lesion and invasive carcinoma rates were 40% and 13.3%, respectively. No risk factor was associated with high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma. Patients with one indication had a lower risk of invasive carcinoma than did those with ≥2 relative indications (5.7% vs. 24%, respectively, p = 0.048); however, the advanced lesion rates were comparable (37.1% vs. 44%, p = 0.593).

CONCLUSIONS

Invasive carcinoma is considerably more frequent in patients with two or more relative indications. The surgical strategy in these selected cases should be decided on an individual basis.

European evidence-based guidelines on pancreatic cystic neoplasms

Evidence-based guidelines on the management of pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCN) are lacking. This guideline is a joint initiative of the European Study Group on Cystic Tumours of the Pancreas, United European Gastroenterology, European Pancreatic Club, European-African Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association, European Digestive Surgery, and the European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. It replaces the 2013 European consensus statement guidelines on PCN. European and non-European experts performed systematic reviews and used GRADE methodology to answer relevant clinical questions on nine topics (biomarkers, radiology, endoscopy, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN), mucinous cystic neoplasm (MCN), serous cystic neoplasm, rare cysts, (neo)adjuvant treatment, and pathology). Recommendations include conservative management, relative and absolute indications for surgery. A conservative approach is recommended for asymptomatic MCN and IPMN measuring <40 mm without an enhancing nodule. Relative indications for surgery in IPMN include a main pancreatic duct (MPD) diameter between 5 and 9.9 mm or a cyst diameter ≥40 mm. Absolute indications for surgery in IPMN, due to the high-risk of malignant transformation, include jaundice, an enhancing mural nodule >5 mm, and MPD diameter >10 mm. Lifelong follow-up of IPMN is recommended in patients who are fit for surgery. The European evidence-based guidelines on PCN aim to improve the diagnosis and management of PCN.

Systematic review, meta-analysis, and a high-volume center experience supporting the new role of mural nodules proposed by the updated 2017 international guidelines on IPMN of the pancreas

BACKGROUND

Mural nodules (MNs) have a predominant role in the 2016 revision of the international guidelines on intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) of the pancreas. The aim of this study was to evaluate MNs as predictors of invasive cancer (iCa) or high-grade dysplasia (HGD) in IPMNs and to investigate the role of MN size in risk prediction.

METHODS

A PRISMA-compliant systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis on selected studies were conducted. The random effect model was adopted, and the pooled SMD (standardized mean difference) obtained. The surgical series of IPMNs at a single high-volume institution was reviewed.

RESULTS

This review included 70 studies and 2297 resected IPMNs. MNs have a positive predictive value for malignancy of 62.2%. The meta-analysis suggested that MN size has a considerable effect on predicting IPMNs with both iCa or HGD with a mean SMD of 0.79. All studies included in the meta-analysis used contrast-enhanced endosonography (CE-EUS) to assess MNs. Due to the heterogeneity of the proposed thresholds, no reliable MN size cut-off was identified. Of 317 IPMNs resected at our institution, 102 (32.1%) had a preoperative diagnosis of MN. Multivariate analysis showed that MN is the only independent predictor of iCa and HGD for all types of IPMNs.

CONCLUSION

MNs are reliable predictors of iCa and HGD in IPMNs as proposed by the 2016 IAP guidelines. CE-EUS seems to be the best tool for characterizing size and has the best accuracy for predicting malignancy. Further studies should determine potential MN dimensional cut-offs.

Predictive performance of factors associated with malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia of the pancreas

Background

Estimation of the risk of malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia (IPMN) of the pancreas is a clinical challenge. Several routinely used clinical factors form the basis of the current consensus guidelines. This study aimed to determine the predictive values of the most commonly assessed risk factors.

Methods

A meta-analysis of individual risk factors of malignancy in IPMN was performed. Contingency tables were derived from these data, and sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values, and diagnostic odds ratios (DOR) were determined. Hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) curves for each factor were calculated and the respective area under the curve (AUC) was assessed.

Results

A total of 3443 studies were screened initially. Analysis of recent literature revealed 60 studies with 13 relevant risk factors including clinical, serological and radiological parameters. The largest area under the HSROC curve was found for weight loss (0·84) and jaundice/raised bilirubin level (0·80), followed by increased carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (0·79) or carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 (0·78) levels. The most sensitive factors were patient age (71 per cent) and mural nodules (65 per cent), and jaundice/raised bilirubin level (97 per cent) and increased CEA level (95 per cent) were most specific. None of the analysed factors reached a positive or negative level of prediction beyond 90 per cent.

Conclusion

None of the established criteria safely distinguishes malignant from non-malignant lesions.

Validation of the 2012 Fukuoka Consensus Guideline for Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas From a Single Institution Experience

OBJECTIVES

The 2012 Fukuoka consensus guideline has stratified the risks of malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) of the pancreas into "high-risk stigmata" (HRS) and "worrisome feature" (WF). This study aimed to evaluate its clinical validity based on a single institution experience.

METHODS

Eighty-nine patients who underwent surgical resection with pathological diagnosis of IPMN were retrospectively studied.

RESULTS

High-risk stigmata was significantly correlated with the prevalence of malignant IPMN as compared with WF. The positive predictive values of HRS and WF were 66.7% and 35.7% for branch duct IPMN and 80% and 38.1% for main duct IPMN, respectively. Univariate analysis indicated that all the factors in HRS and WF had statistical significance. Whereas multivariate analysis revealed only enhanced solid component (odds ratio [OR], 50.01; P = 0.008), presence of mural nodule (OR, 73.83; P < 0.001) and lymphadenopathy (OR, 20.85; P = 0.03) were independent predictors. Scoring HRS and WF by different numbers of positive factors resulted in improved predictive value. The area under the curve of HRS score was significantly lower than that of WF or HRS + WF score (0.680 vs 0.900 or 0.902, respectively; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

As supplementary to the 2012 Fukuoka guideline, we suggest that calculating scores of WF and HRS may have superior diagnostic accuracy in predicting malignant IPMN.

Revisions of international consensus Fukuoka guidelines for the management of IPMN of the pancreas

The management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) continues to evolve. In particular, the indications for resection of branch duct IPMN have changed from early resection to more deliberate observation as proposed by the international consensus guidelines of 2006 and 2012. Another guideline proposed by the American Gastroenterological Association in 2015 restricted indications for surgery more stringently and recommended physicians to stop surveillance if no significant change had occurred in a pancreatic cyst after five years of surveillance, or if a patient underwent resection and a non-malignant IPMN was found. Whether or not it is safe to do so, as well as the method and interval of surveillance, has generated substantial debate. Based on a consensus symposium held during the meeting of the International Association of Pancreatology in Sendai, Japan, in 2016, the working group has revised the guidelines regarding prediction of invasive carcinoma and high-grade dysplasia, surveillance, and postoperative follow-up of IPMN. As the working group did not recognize the need for major revisions of the guidelines, we made only minor revisions and added most recent articles where appropriate. The present guidelines include updated information and recommendations based on our current understanding, and highlight issues that remain controversial or where further research is required.

Natural History of Pancreatic Cysts

Pancreatic cystic neoplasms are discovered with increasing frequency. Accurate knowledge of the natural history of cystic neoplasms is crucial to develop useful and cost-effective strategies for surveillance and surgical resection. To date, the natural history of cystic neoplasms is still incomplete due to lack of adequate diagnostic accuracy in the absence of surgical pathology. Nevertheless, current evidence points to risk factors for malignant transformation to help clinical management. New biomarkers that accurately distinguish cyst neoplasms and those most likely to progress to cancer would help clarify the natural history of cystic neoplasms.

Impact of surgery and surveillance in the management of branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas according to Fukuoka guidelines: the Bologna experience

The objective of the study was to evaluate the Fukuoka guidelines in indicating the proper management for recognising the risk factors of malignancy. Data of patients with branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms who underwent pancreatic resection or surveillance according to the Fukuoka risk parameters were collected in a prospective database. The clinical outcome (development of pancreatic cancer, overall and disease-specific survival) and pathological results were evaluated in all patients and in resected cases, respectively. The data of 197 patients were collected: 23 primarily resected and 174 primarily followed. Of the latter, 16 were secondarily resected. Among the patients resected, 21 (53.9%) showed diagnosis of in situ or invasive carcinoma and only contrast-enhancing mural nodules were significantly related to malignancy (P = 0.002), with a DOR of 3.3 and an LH+ of 2.2. Development of pancreatic cancer was shown in ten (5.7%) of the patients primarily followed. The overall survival and disease-specific survival were similar between patients primarily followed and primarily resected. It seems reasonable to suggest that a branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm should be treated as a benign and indolent disease that is rarely malignant. Enhancing mural nodules represent the best indicator for surgery.

Dynamics of Fukuoka Criteria and Patient Management in Pancreatic Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms (IPMNs) During Follow-Up

BACKGROUND Pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) present a clinical challenge. Evidence-based guidelines are lacking. The so-called "Fukuoka criteria" were developed to assess the risk of malignancy in IPMNs upon imaging. However, little is known about their diagnostic value and the natural course of IPMNs. Thus, the aim of this study was the assessment of Fukuoka criteria and patient management in pancreatic IPMNs -during follow-up. MATERIAL AND METHODS IPMNs were identified via retrospective survey of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) examinations. Fukuoka criteria were assessed on EUS findings and additional imaging (CT, MRI, ultrasound). Patients' symptoms and comorbidities were recorded. Dynamics of Fukuoka criteria and patient management were compared at first presentation and during follow-up. RESULTS We screened 1324 EUS examinations. Sixty-five patients (male/female, 14/37; mean age, 68.8 years; range, 48-85 years) with IPMNs were identified (57 branch duct (BD-)IPMNs, 3 main duct (MD-) IPMNs, 5 mixed-type (MT)-IPMNs). Seven patients received surgical resection (4 BD-IPMNs, 2 MD-IPMNs, 1 MT-IPMN). Nine BD-IPMNs had neither surgery nor follow-up. Fifty-one patients (44 BD-IPMNs, 2 MD-IPMNs, 5 MT-IPMNs) underwent follow-up (mean duration, 18.7 months; range, 3-139 months). There were 15/51 patients who were initially Fukuoka-positive. One MD-IPMN, 4/5 MT-IPMNs, and 13/44 BD-IPMNs showed progressive changes but were not resected due to patients' refusal or comorbidities. Four BD-IPMNs converted to Fukuoka-positive. CONCLUSIONS Evidence-based guidelines for non-invasive dignity assessment of IPMNs are lacking. In our study, MD-IPMNs displayed greater dynamics than BD-IPMNs and MT-IPMNs concerning Fukuoka criteria. Prospective long-term studies are needed to clarify prognostic significance of the single Fukuoka criteria and sensible duration of follow-up.

The Sendai and Fukuoka consensus criteria for the management of branch duct IPMN - A meta-analysis on their accuracy

INTRODUCTION

The risk of malignancy in branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia of the pancreas (BD-IPMN) is controversially debated. An increasing number of studies report on outcomes using the Sendai or Fukuoka consensus criteria for treatment decision-making. The objective of this work was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the Sendai and Fukuoka criteria.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed studies on Sendai or Fukuoka criteria-guided management of BD-IPMN. Pooled sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratios as compound measures of diagnostic accuracy were calculated from studies matching the inclusion criteria. The meta-analysis was performed using a random effects model.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies with a total of 2710 patients were included. Twelve of these used the Sendai criteria. In these studies, 23% of Sendai-negative patients had a high grade dysplastic lesion or an invasive carcinoma in final histology. Pooled sensitivity was 56%, specificity was 74% and the diagnostic odds ratio for malignancy in Sendai-positive lesions was 7.45. When the results of follow-up examinations were included, diagnostic accuracy improved significantly (14.66, p < 0.001). Three studies were identified that used the Fukuoka criteria for decision making. Of 200 patients with Fukuoka-negative lesions who underwent surgery, 22 had a malignant lesion in final histology (11%). Pooled sensitivity was 83%, specificity was 53% and the diagnostic odds ratio was 8.76.

CONCLUSION

The Fukuoka criteria have considerably improved sensitivity but still lack adequate specificity. For further reduction of a potential surgical overtreatment of BD-IPMN, the development of criteria with an increased specificity is required.

Serum Carbohydrate Antigen 19-9 in Differential Diagnosis of Benign and Malignant Pancreatic Cystic Neoplasms: A Meta-Analysis

Background

Using serum carbohydrate antigen 19–9 (CA 19–9) in discriminating between benign and malignant pancreatic disease remains controversial. We aim to evaluate the diagnostic value of serum CA 19–9 in predicting malignant pancreatic cystic lesions.

Methods

Eligible studies were identified through searching MEDLINE and EMBASE prior to March 2016. Studies were assessed for quality using the Quality Assessment for Studies of Diagnostic Accuracy, 2nd version (QUADAS-2). Pooled sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using random-effects models. Summary receiver operator characteristic (SROC) curves and the area under curve (AUC) were performed.

Results

A total of thirteen studies including 1437 patients were enrolled in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.47(95% CI: 0.35–0.59), and 0.88(95% CI: 0.86–0.91), respectively, and the AUC was 0.87(95% CI, 0.84–0.90). Meta-regression analysis showed that sample size, region and reference standards were not the main sources of heterogeneity.

Conclusions

Serum CA 19–9 has satisfying pooled specificity while poor pooled sensitivity for discriminating benign from malignant PCNs. It deserves to be widely used as complementary to other clinical diagnostic methods.

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) with high-grade dysplasia is a risk factor for the subsequent development of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Non-invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) with high-grade dysplasia and IPMN-associated invasive pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) are frequently included under the term "malignancy". The goal of this study is to clarify the difference between these two entities.

METHODS

From 1996 to 2013, data of 616 patients who underwent pancreatic resection for an IPMN were reviewed.

RESULTS

The median overall survival for patients with IPMN with high-grade dysplasia (92 months) was similar to survival for patients with IPMN with low/intermediate-grade dysplasia (118 months, p = 0.081), and superior to that of patients with IPMN-associated PDAC (29 months, p < 0.001). IPMN-associated PDAC had lymph node metastasis in 53%, perineural invasion in 58%, and vascular invasion in 33%. In contrast, no lymph node metastasis, perineural or vascular invasion was observed with high-grade dysplasia. None of the patients with IPMN with high-grade dysplasia developed recurrence outside the remnant pancreas. In stark contrast 58% of patients with IPMN-associated PDAC recurred outside the remnant pancreas. The rate of progression within the remnant pancreas was significant in patients with IPMN with high-grade (24%) and with low/intermediate dysplasia (22%, p = 0.816).

CONCLUSION

Non-invasive IPMN with high-grade dysplasia should not be considered a malignant entity. Compared to patients with IPMN with low/intermediate-grade dysplasia, those with high-grade dysplasia have an increased risk of subsequent development of PDAC in the remnant pancreas.

Accuracy of 2012 International Consensus Guidelines for the prediction of malignancy of branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

OBJECTIVE

To determine accuracy of 2012 International Consensus Guidelines (ICG) predicting malignancy in a surgical cohort of branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMN).

METHODS

This study included all consecutive patients with final pathological diagnosis of pure BD-IPMN resected between 2006 and 2014 at Beaujon Hospital. Neoplasms were classified as malignant in presence of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or invasive carcinoma. Medical, pathological, and radiological data were retrospectively recorded.

RESULTS

One hundred and twenty patients (65 males, mean age: 57.9 ± 10.8 years) were included. Malignant BD-IPMN accounted for 30% (HGD: 18%, invasive: 12%). Thickened cyst walls (odds ratio (OR): 3.058, 95% confidence interval (CI 95%): 1.102-8.484, p = 0.032), main duct diameter 5-9 mm (OR: 3.395, CI 95%: 1.349-8.543, p = 0.007), and mural nodule (OR: 3.802, CI 95%: 1.156-12.511, p = 0.028) were independently associated with malignancy in multivariate analysis. Among the 89 patients (74%) who underwent surgical resection with ICG criteria, the malignancy rate was 38%, compared with 6% in the 31 ICG-negative group. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy for malignancy of having at least one ICG criteria were 94%, 34%, 38%, 94%, and 53%, respectively. Patients with malignant tumors had more ICG criteria than those with benign lesions (2.06 ± 0.98 vs. 0.99 ± 0.95, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

2012 ICG criteria are useful to manage BD-IPMN permitting not to miss a malignant form (NPV of 94%), but frequently point out unnecessary surgery (PPV of 38%). Malignancy rate increases with the number of ICG criteria. In patients with only one criterion, additional criteria would be necessary.

International consensus on the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas

International consensus guidelines for the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) of the pancreas revised in 2012 (Fukuoka consensus) seem to be accepted well worldwide. Division of various factors to predict malignant transformation into two categories, i.e., "high-risk stigmata" and "worrisome features", is also accepted as practically useful for stratifying the risk factors. Our current interest resides in the development of noninvasive and/or invasive pancreatic cancer in areas of the pancreas distinct from IPMN. Invasive pancreatic cancers derived from and concomitant with IPMN should be distinguished to clarify the incidence of each entity, although some more definitive method for differentiation has to be devised in some cases where histological distinction is obscure. IPMN is a clue to early detection of pancreatic cancer. The optimal surveillance protocol for IPMN on observation should be determined in consideration of both of these different pancreatic cancers.

What Is the Best Way to Identify Malignant Transformation Within Pancreatic IPMN: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses

OBJECTIVES

Pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasias (IPMNs) represent 25% of all cystic neoplasms and are precursor lesions for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. This study aims to identify the best imaging modality for detecting malignant transformation in IPMN, the sensitivity and specificity of risk features on imaging, and the usefulness of tumor markers in serum and cyst fluid to predict malignancy in IPMN.

METHODS

Databases were searched from November 2006 to March 2014. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic techniques/imaging features of suspected malignancy in IPMN using a hierarchical summary receiver operator characteristic (HSROC) approach were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 467 eligible studies were identified, of which 51 studies met the inclusion criteria and 37 of these were incorporated into meta-analyses. The pooled sensitivity and specificity for risk features predictive of malignancy on computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging were 0.809 and 0.762 respectively, and on positron emission tomography were 0.968 and 0.911. Mural nodule, cyst size, and main pancreatic duct dilation found on imaging had pooled sensitivity for prediction of malignancy of 0.690, 0.682, and 0.614, respectively, and specificity of 0.798, 0.574, and 0.687. Raised serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) levels yielded sensitivity of 0.380 and specificity of 0903. Combining parameters yielded a sensitivity of 0.743 and specificity of 0.906.

CONCLUSIONS

PET holds the most promise in identifying malignant transformation within an IPMN. Combining parameters increases sensitivity and specificity; the presence of mural nodule on imaging was the most sensitive whereas raised serum CA19-9 (>37 KU/l) was the most specific feature predictive of malignancy in IPMNs.

Assessment of Malignant Potential in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas: Comparison between Multidetector CT and MR Imaging with MR Cholangiopancreatography

PURPOSE

To compare the diagnostic performance of multidetector computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) imaging with MR cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) in identifying the malignant potential of pancreatic intraductal papillary neoplasms (IPMNs) and evaluate their intermodality agreement.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Institutional review board approval was obtained, and the requirement for informed consent was waived for this retrospective study. In 129 patients with pathologically proved pancreatic IPMNs, three reviewers independently evaluated their preoperative CT and MR imaging with MRCP findings. Intermodality agreement between multidetector CT and MR imaging with MRCP, as well as interobserver agreement of each imaging modality, for depicting high-risk stigmata and worrisome features were assessed. Diagnostic values of other signs of overt malignancy, including the presence of a parenchymal mass and local-regional extension, were analyzed. Diagnostic performance and intermodality agreement were assessed by using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis and weighted κ statistics.

RESULTS

Overall, multidetector CT and MR imaging with MRCP were similar in their ability to depict signs suspicious or indicative of malignancy in patients with IPMN (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.82 for both), with good intermodality agreement (κ = 0.75) and moderate interobserver agreement (κ = 0.47-0.59) when high-grade dysplasia was used as the cutoff for malignancy. When parenchymal masses and local-regional extensions were also considered as overt signs of malignancy, the ability to identify invasive IPMNs significantly increased (AUC = 0.87 for CT and AUC = 0.88 for MR imaging), with high sensitivity (94.3%), while maintaining specificity (69.1%).

CONCLUSION

The diagnostic performance of multidetector CT and MR imaging with MRCP for identifying the malignant potential of pancreatic IPMNs was similar and showed good intermodality agreement, suggesting that follow-up with either modality may be used.

Interobserver agreement for detection of malignant features of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas on MDCT

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this retrospective study was to measure interobserver agreement in the assessment of malignant imaging features of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) on MDCT.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Pancreatic protocol CT studies were reviewed for 84 patients with resected IPMNs. Maximal diameter of the dominant cyst, presence of a mural nodule, presence of a solid component, and diameters of the main pancreatic duct (MPD) and common bile duct (CBD) were measured by four radiologists independently. In each patient, the IPMN was classified into one of three types: main duct, branch duct, or mixed IPMN. Interobserver agreement of lesion features was examined using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for continuous features and Fleiss kappa for categorical features.

RESULTS

The final dataset included 55 branch duct IPMNs, nine main duct IPMNs, and 20 mixed IPMNs. Moderate agreement (ĸ = 0.458; 95% CI, 0.345-0.564) was observed in assigning branch duct, main duct, or mixed IPMN subtypes. Measurement agreement was substantial to excellent for dominant cyst (ICC = 0.852; 95% CI, 0.777-0.907), MPD (0.753, 0.655-0.837), and CBD (0.608, 0.463-0.724) but only fair to moderate for the detection of the presence of mural nodule (ĸ = 0.284, 0.125-0.432) or solid component (ĸ = 0.405, 0211-0.577).

CONCLUSION

Substantial to excellent interobserver agreement in the measurement of cyst diameter, MPD, and CBD support their use for characterizing malignant features of IPMN on MDCT. However, the subjective interpretation of the presence of solid components and mural nodules by individual radiologists was more variable.

Serum carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 for prediction of malignancy and invasiveness in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: A meta-analysis

The clinical importance of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) of the pancreas has been increasing due to the large number of newly diagnosed cases. A meta-analysis was used to assess the accuracy of serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) for the identification of malignant and invasive IPMN. A literature search of PubMed and Web of Knowledge was conducted. Studies included in the analysis addressed the diagnostic accuracy of serum CEA and CA19-9 and pooled estimates of sensitivity, specificity, positive- and negative-likelihood ratios (PLR and NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated using random-effects models. Predefined subgroup analysis was performed. Fifteen studies (published between 2001 and 2013) were analyzed, including a total of 1,629 patients. Pooled estimates of CEA in malignant and invasive IPNM prediction were: Pooled sensitivity, 18 and 18%; pooled specificity, 93 and 95%; PLR, 2.83 and 3.54; NLR, 0.89 and 0.89; and DOR, 3.35 and 3.6, respectively. Pooled estimates of CA19-9 in malignant and invasive IPMN prediction were: Pooled sensitivity, 40 and 52%; pooled specificity, 89 and 88%; PLR, 2.93 and 3.78; NLR, 0.74 and 0.6; and DOR, 4.34 and 6.33, respectively. In conclusion, serum CEA has low sensitivity and high specificity for malignant and invasive IPMN. Serum CA19-9 is a useful non-invasive preoperative tool for differentiating between invasive and benign IPMN and should be taken into account in the decision to perform surgery.

"High-risk stigmata" of the 2012 international consensus guidelines correlate with the malignant grade of branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

OBJECTIVES

The 2012 international consensus guidelines for the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) of the pancreas stratified patients into 2 clinical categories, "high-risk stigmata" and "worrisome features," and recommended different therapeutic strategies for these groups. The aim of this study was to elucidate the significance of these categories in terms of predicting malignant IPMNs.

METHODS

The medical records of 100 consecutive patients who underwent pancreatectomy for IPMNs were retrospectively reviewed. Seventy patients with branch duct IPMNs (BD-IPMNs) were stratified into 3 groups. The relationships between the number of predictive factors and histopathologic grade were investigated.

RESULTS

The prevalence rates of malignant IPMN, invasive carcinoma, and lymph node metastasis in the high-risk group were 80%, 55%, and 20%, respectively, with these percentages significantly increasing in a stepwise manner according to the number of predictive factors. In contrast, there was no significant correlation between the number of worrisome features and grade of malignancy in patients stratified as having worrisome BD-IPMNs.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of high-risk stigmata correlated significantly with the grade of malignancy of BD-IPMNs. The presence of at least 1 high-risk stigma in patients with BD-IPMNs indicates a need for pancreatectomy with lymphadenectomy.

International Consensus Guidelines parameters for the prediction of malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm are not properly weighted and are not cumulative

BACKGROUND

The International Consensus Guidelines (ICG) stratify risk for malignancy in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) into three progressive categories according to whether patients show 'no criteria', 'worrisome features' (WFs) or 'high-risk stigmata' (HRS).

OBJECTIVES

This study was conducted to test the hypothesis that type (clinical versus radiological) and quantity of ICG WFs and HRS carry unequal weight and are not cumulative in the prediction of risk for malignancy or invasiveness in IPMN.

METHODS

A retrospective review of a prospectively maintained database of patients who underwent surgical resection for IPMN at a single, university-based medical centre during 1992-2012 was performed. Differences that achieved a P-value of <0.05 were considered significant.

RESULTS

Of 362 patients, 340 were eligible for entry into the study and were categorized as demonstrating no criteria (n = 70), WFs (n = 185) or HRS (n = 85). Patients in the WFs group had higher rates of malignant and invasive IPMN than those in the no-criteria group [26.5% versus 4.3% (P < 0.0001) and 15.7% versus 4.3% (P = 0.02), respectively]. Patients in the HRS group had higher rates of malignant and invasive IPMN than those in the WFs group [56.5% versus 26.5% (P = 0.0001) and 42.4% versus 15.7% (P = 0.0001), respectively]. When radiological parameters only were considered for WFs versus HRS, no difference was found in rates of malignant or invasive IPMN. By contrast, when clinical parameters only were considered, patients in the HRS group had higher rates of malignant or invasive IPMN [66.7% versus 8.1% (P = 0.04) and 66.7% versus 2.7% (P = 0.01), respectively]. There was no stepwise increase in rates of malignant or invasive IPMN with the number of WFs. However, patients with only one WF had a lower risk for malignancy than patients with two or more WFs.

CONCLUSIONS

The type and quantity of ICG WFs and HRS carry unequal weight and are not cumulative in the prediction of risk for malignancy or invasiveness in IPMN.

Imaging features to distinguish malignant and benign branch-duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To systematically determine the imaging findings for distinguishing malignant and benign branch-duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs), including mixed type, and their diagnostic value through meta-analysis of published studies.

BACKGROUND

Management of BD-IPMNs, including mixed type, largely relies on imaging findings. The current knowledge on imaging findings to distinguish malignant and benign BD-IPMNs has weak evidence and is mostly from scattered individual retrospective studies.

METHODS

Thorough literature search in Ovid-MEDLINE and EMBASE databases was conducted to identify studies where findings of computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and endoscopic ultrasonography of BD-IPMNs with or without main pancreatic duct (MPD) dilatation were correlated with surgical/pathological findings. Review of 1128 article candidates, including full-text review of 102 articles, identified 23 eligible articles with a total of 1373 patients for meta-analysis. Dichotomous data regarding distinction between malignant and benign BD-IPMNs were pooled using random effects model to obtain the diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of various individual imaging findings for diagnosing malignant BD-IPMN.

RESULTS

Presence of mural nodules revealed the highest pooled DOR (95% CI) of 6.0 (4.1-8.8) followed by MPD dilatation [3.4 (2.3-5.2)], thick septum/wall [unadjusted, 3.3 (1.5-6.9); publication bias-adjusted, 2.3 (0.9-5.5)], and cyst size greater than 3 cm [2.3 (1.5-3.5)]. Multilocularity and multiplicity of the cystic lesions did not reveal statistically significant association with malignancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Presence of mural nodules should be regarded highly suspicious for malignancy warranting a surgical excision whereas cyst size greater than 3 cm, MPD dilatation (5-9 mm), or thick septum/wall may better be managed by careful observation and/or further evaluation.

Evaluation of the Sendai and 2012 International Consensus Guidelines based on cross-sectional imaging findings performed for the initial triage of mucinous cystic lesions of the pancreas: a single institution experience with 114 surgically treated patients

BACKGROUND

The Sendai Consensus Guidelines (SCG) were formulated in 2006 to guide the management of mucinous cystic lesions of the pancreas (CLPs) and were updated in 2012 (International Consensus Guidelines, ICG 2012). This study aims to evaluate the clinical utility of the ICG 2012 with the SCG based on initial cross-sectional imaging findings.

METHODS

One hundred fourteen patients with mucinous CLPs were reviewed and classified according to the ICG 2012 as high risk (HR(ICG2012)), worrisome (W(ICG2012)), and low risk (LR(ICG2012)), and according to the SCG as high risk (HR(SCG)) and low risk (LR(SCG)).

RESULTS

On univariate analysis, the presence of symptoms, obstructive jaundice, elevated serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA)/carbohydrate antigen (CA)19-9, solid component, main pancreatic duct ≥ 10 mm, and main pancreatic duct ≥ 5 mm was associated with high grade dysplasia/invasive carcinoma in all mucinous CLPs. Increasing number of HR(SCG) or HR(ICG2012) features was associated with a significantly increased likelihood of malignancy. The positive predictive value of HR(SCG) and HR(ICG2012) for high grade dysplasia/invasive carcinoma was 46% and 62.5% respectively. The negative predictive value of both LR(SCG) and LR(ICG2012) was 100%.

CONCLUSION

Both the guidelines were useful in the initial cross-sectional imaging evaluation of mucinous CLPs. The ICG 2012 guidelines were superior to the SCG guidelines.

Cyst features and risk of malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

International guidelines for the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) of the pancreas recommend surgical resection of those with specific characteristics. We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the risk of malignancy associated with each of these features of IPMNs.

METHODS

We performed a comprehensive search of MEDLINE from January 1, 1996, to November 11, 2011, for studies that included any of the features mentioned in the consensus guidelines for surgical resection of main duct and branch duct IPMNs. Data were analyzed from 41 studies for the following features: cyst size greater than 3 cm, the presence of mural nodules, dilated main pancreatic duct, symptoms, and main duct vs branch duct IPMNs. Malignant IPMNs were defined as those with carcinoma in situ or more advanced histology. A separate meta-analysis was performed for each risk factor to calculate pooled odds ratios (ORs). A random-effects model was used, based on the assumption of variation among study populations.

RESULTS

The risks of malignancy associated with individual cyst features were as follows: cyst size greater than 3 cm (OR, 62.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 30.8-126.3), presence of a mural nodule (OR, 9.3; 95% CI, 5.3-16.1), dilatation of the main pancreatic duct (OR, 7.27; 95% CI, 3.0-17.4), and main vs branch duct IPMN (OR, 4.7; 95% CI, 3.3-6.9). There was a moderate level of heterogeneity among studies (I(2) range, 34-67).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on a meta-analysis, cyst features proposed by the international guidelines for resection of IPMN were highly associated with malignancy. However, based on our findings, not all cyst features should be weighted equally when considering risk of malignancy; cyst size greater than 3 cm was associated most strongly with malignant IPMN.

Diagnosis and management of cystic pancreatic lesions

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this review is to outline the management guidelines for the care of patients with cystic pancreatic lesions.

CONCLUSION

The guidelines are as follows: Annual imaging surveillance is generally sufficient for benign serous cystadenomas smaller than 4 cm and for asymptomatic lesions. Asymptomatic thin-walled unilocular cystic lesions smaller than 3 cm or side-branch intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms should be followed up with CT or MRI at 6 and 12 months interval after detection. Cystic lesions with more complex features or with growth rates greater than 1 cm/year should be followed more closely or recommended for resection if the patient's condition allows surgery. Symptomatic cystic lesions, neoplasms with high malignant potential, and lesions larger than 3 cm should be referred for surgical evaluation. Endoscopic ultrasound with fine-needle aspiration (FNA) biopsy can be used preoperatively to assess the risk of malignancy.

High-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma are frequent in side-branch intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm measuring less than 3 cm on endoscopic ultrasound

BACKGROUND

Surgical resection for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) of the pancreas has increased over the last decade. While IPMN with main duct communication are generally recommended for resection, indications for resection of side-branch IPMN (SDIPMN) have been less clear. We reviewed our single institutional experience with SDIPMN and indications for resection.

METHODS

Patients who underwent resection for IPMN were identified from a prospectively maintained IRB-approved database. Patients with main pancreatic duct communication were excluded. Outcome, clinical and pathologic characteristics were correlated with endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) findings.

RESULTS

From 2000 to 2010, 105 patients who underwent preoperative EUS evaluation and resection for SDIPMN were identified. The mean age was within the sixth decade of life, and there was a slight female predominance (55 vs. 45 %). The most common presenting symptom was abdominal pain (N = 47, 45 %), followed by jaundice (N = 24, 23 %) and weight loss (N = 24, 23 %). Only ten patients (10 %) were asymptomatic at presentation; seven (70 %) had suspicious features on EUS. Of the total cohort, few patients had intracystic septations (N = 27, 26 %) or presence of mural nodules (N = 2, 2 %) on EUS. Of 39 patients who had invasive pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) on final pathology, EUS-fine needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) demonstrated malignancy in only 21 (54 %). An additional seven (18 %) had EUS-FNA findings of atypia or concern for mucinous neoplasm. EUS evaluation of cyst size was correlated with final pathology. Of 70 patients with EUS cyst size <3 cm, 12 (17 %) had a preoperative EUS diagnosis of malignancy. Final pathology revealed 24 (34 %) to have PDAC: 1 of 7 (14 %) patients with cyst size <1 cm, 2 of 19 (11 %) with cyst size 1-2 cm, and 21of 44 (48 %) with cyst size 2-3 cm. Fifteen of 35 (43 %) patients with cyst size >3 cm had PDAC on final pathology. Of the patients with cyst size <3 cm, 16 (23 %) had high-grade dysplasia on final pathology: 3 of 7 (43 %) with cyst size <1 cm, 3 of 19 (16 %) with cyst size 1-2 cm, and 10 of 44 (23 %) with cyst size 2-3 cm. Seven of 35 (20 %) patients with cyst size >3 cm had high-grade dysplasia on final pathology. Although overall survival (OS) at 48 months stratified by EUS cyst size did not significantly differ between groups, patients with PDAC on final pathology had significantly worse OS compared to noninvasive pathology. A total of eight patients (8 %) developed recurrent disease, all of whom had PDAC on final pathology.

CONCLUSION

EUS is a helpful modality for the diagnostic evaluation of SDIPMN. Considering the high incidence of malignancy as well as high-grade dysplasia in SDIPMN greater than 2 cm, EUS features should be used in conjunction with other clinical criteria to guide management decisions. Patients with SDIPMN greater than 2 cm that do not undergo surgical resection may benefit from more intensive surveillance.

Diagnostic significance of a dilated orifice of the duodenal papilla in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas

BACKGROUND

A dilated orifice of the duodenal papilla found during screening endoscopy or ERCP is well-known as one of the specific findings of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). However, its clinical significance is still unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the diagnostic significance of a dilated orifice of the duodenal papilla and evaluate whether this could be a factor predictive of malignancy or a subtype of IPMN.

DESIGN

Retrospective study.

SETTING

University hospital.

PATIENTS

This study involved 149 patients who underwent pancreatectomy for IPMN between January 1987 and June 2011.

INTERVENTION

ERCP.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS

The rate of malignant and intestinal type IPMNs in patients with and without papillary dilation.

RESULTS

A dilated orifice of the duodenal papilla was significantly associated with intestinal type IPMN (P < .001), but this finding could not predict the malignant grade of IPMN (P = .13). Multivariate analysis revealed that a dilated orifice was a significant factor for predicting intestinal type in both main duct (P = .01) and branch duct IPMNs (P < .001).

LIMITATIONS

The validity of the definition of papillary dilation, selection bias, and a retrospective study.

CONCLUSION

A dilated orifice of the duodenal papilla could be a significant factor for predicting intestinal type IPMN. This may lead to better clinical management of patients with IPMN.

[Strategy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas]

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is a premalignant pancreatic entity characterized by papillary growth of the ductal epithelium with rich mucin production and cystic dilatation of the main pancreatic duct and/or its branches. These neoplasms are often multifocal. Preoperative distinction between benign and malignant lesions is important to select the most appropriate treatment and to improve prognosis. Early surgical resection is the treatment of choice to avoid malignant transformation when predictive factors for malignancy are present. These factors include localization, cyst greater than 3cm, nodules in the cystic wall, atypias in the cyst fluid and the presence of symptoms. The extent of resection required for adequate treatment of IPMN of the pancreas is still controversial. Patients who retain a portion of their pancreas following resection of an IPMN need to be followed up with periodic imaging to detect recurrences, signs indicating a risk of malignant transformation, and metachronous lesions. The existence of possible synchronous or metachronous lesions in other organs should also be investigated.