Tick-borne encephalitis incidence forecasts for Austria, Germany, and Switzerland

Outdoor recreation, tick borne encephalitis incidence and seasonality in Finland, Norway and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020/2021)

During the pandemic outdoor activities were encouraged to mitigate transmission risk while providing safe spaces for social interactions. Human behaviour, which may favour or disfavour, contact rates between questing ticks and humans, is a key factor impacting tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) incidence. We analyzed annual and weekly TBE cases in Finland, Norway and Sweden from 2010 to 2021 to assess trend, seasonality, and discuss changes in human tick exposure imposed by COVID-19. We compared the pre-pandemic incidence (2010-2019) with the pandemic incidence (2020-2021) by fitting a generalized linear model (GLM) to incidence data. Pre-pandemic incidence was 1.0, 0.29 and 2.8 for Finland, Norway and Sweden, respectively, compared to incidence of 2.2, 1.0 and 3.9 during the pandemic years. However, there was an increasing trend for all countries across the whole study period. Therefore, we predicted the number of cases in 2020/2021 based on a model fitted to the annual cases in 2010-2019. The incidences during the pandemic were 1.3 times higher for Finland, 1.7 times higher for Norway and no difference for Sweden. When social restrictions were enforced to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 there were profound changes in outdoor recreational behavior. Future consideration of public health interventions that promote outdoor activities may increase exposure to vector-borne diseases.

Ecological and environmental factors affecting the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Europe, 2017 to 2021

BackgroundTick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a disease which can lead to severe neurological symptoms, caused by the TBE virus (TBEV). The natural transmission cycle occurs in foci and involves ticks as vectors and several key hosts that act as reservoirs and amplifiers of the infection spread. Recently, the incidence of TBE in Europe has been rising in both endemic and new regions.AimIn this study we want to provide comprehensive understanding of the main ecological and environmental factors that affect TBE spread across Europe.MethodsWe searched available literature on covariates linked with the circulation of TBEV in Europe. We then assessed the best predictors for TBE incidence in 11 European countries by means of statistical regression, using data on human infections provided by the European Surveillance System (TESSy), averaged between 2017 and 2021.ResultsWe retrieved data from 62 full-text articles and identified 31 different covariates associated with TBE occurrence. Finally, we selected eight variables from the best model, including factors linked to vegetation cover, climate, and the presence of tick hosts.DiscussionThe existing literature is heterogeneous, both in study design and covariate types. Here, we summarised and statistically validated the covariates affecting the variability of TBEV across Europe. The analysis of the factors enhancing disease emergence is a fundamental step towards the identification of potential hotspots of viral circulation. Hence, our results can support modelling efforts to estimate the risk of TBEV infections and help decision-makers implement surveillance and prevention campaigns.

Correlation between airborne pollen data and the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in northern Italy

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is caused by a flavivirus that infects animals including humans. In Europe, the TBE virus circulates enzootically in natural foci among ticks and rodent hosts. The abundance of ticks depends on the abundance of rodent hosts, which in turn depends on the availability of food resources, such as tree seeds. Trees can exhibit large inter-annual fluctuations in seed production (masting), which influences the abundance of rodents the following year, and the abundance of nymphal ticks two years later. Thus, the biology of this system predicts a 2-year time lag between masting and the incidence of tick-borne diseases such as TBE. As airborne pollen abundance is related to masting, we investigated whether inter-annual variation in pollen load could be directly correlated with inter-annual variation in the incidence of TBE in human populations with a 2-year time lag. We focused our study on the province of Trento (northern Italy), where 206 TBE cases were notified between 1992 and 2020. We tested the relationship between TBE incidence and pollen load collected from 1989 to 2020 for 7 different tree species common in our study area. Through univariate analysis we found that the pollen quantities recorded two years prior for two tree species, hop-hornbeam (Ostrya carpinifolia) and downy oak (Quercus pubescens), were positively correlated with TBE emergence (R² = 0.2) while a multivariate model with both tree species better explained the variation in annual TBE incidence (R² = 0.34). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at quantifying the correlation between pollen quantities and the incidence of TBE in human populations. As pollen loads are collected by widespread aerobiological networks using standardized procedures, our study could be easily replicated to test their potential as early warning system for TBE and other tick-borne diseases.

Spatiotemporal spread of tick-borne encephalitis in the EU/EEA, 2012 to 2020

BackgroundTick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a vaccine-preventable disease involving the central nervous system. TBE became a notifiable disease on the EU/EEA level in 2012.AimWe aimed to provide an updated epidemiological assessment of TBE in the EU/EEA, focusing on spatiotemporal changes.MethodsWe performed a descriptive analysis of case characteristics, time and location using data of human TBE cases reported by EU/EEA countries to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control with disease onset in 2012-2020. We analysed data at EU/EEA, national, and subnational levels and calculated notification rates using Eurostat population data. Regression models were used for temporal analysis.ResultsFrom 2012 to 2020, 19 countries reported 29,974 TBE cases, of which 24,629 (98.6%) were autochthonous. Czechia, Germany and Lithuania reported 52.9% of all cases. The highest notification rates were recorded in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia (16.2, 9.5 and 7.5 cases/100,000 population, respectively). Fifty regions from 10 countries, had a notification rate ≥ 5/100,000. There was an increasing trend in number of cases during the study period with an estimated 0.053 additional TBE cases every week. In 2020, 11.5% more TBE cases were reported than predicted based on data from 2016 to 2019. A geographical spread of cases was observed, particularly in regions situated north-west of known endemic regions.ConclusionA close monitoring of ongoing changes to the TBE epidemiological situation in Europe can support the timely adaption of vaccination recommendations. Further analyses to identify populations and geographical areas where vaccination programmes can be of benefit are needed.

Tick feeding modulates the human skin immune landscape to facilitate tick-borne pathogen transmission

During cutaneous tick attachment, the feeding cavity becomes a site of transmission for tick salivary compounds and tick-borne pathogens. However, the immunological consequences of tick feeding for human skin remain unclear. Here, we assessed human skin and blood samples upon tick bite and developed a human skin explant model mimicking Ixodes ricinus bites and tick-borne pathogen infection. Following tick attachment, we observed rapidly occurring patterns of immunomodulation, including increases in neutrophils and cutaneous B and T cells. T cells upregulated tissue residency markers, while lymphocytic cytokine production was impaired. In early stages of Borrelia burgdorferi model infections, we detected strain-specific immune responses and close spatial relationships between macrophages and spirochetes. Preincubation of spirochetes with tick salivary gland extracts hampered accumulation of immune cells and increased spirochete loads. Collectively, we showed that tick feeding exerts profound changes on the skin immune network that interfere with the primary response against tick-borne pathogens.

The epidemiology of infectious diseases in Europe in 2020 versus 2017-2019 and the rise of tick-borne encephalitis (1995-2020)

Health control measures instituted in 2020 to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic decreased the case numbers of many infectious diseases across Europe. One notable exception was tick-borne encephalitis (TBE). In Austria, Germany, Switzerland, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic, the upturn was significantly higher compared to the average of the three years previously (P<0.05), with increases of 88%, 48%, 51%, 28%, and 18%, respectively. Six countries reported TBE incidences of ≥5 cases/100,000, defined as highly endemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Possible factors contributing to this surge may include increased participation in outdoor activities in endemic regions and increased tick counts/tick activity. In highly endemic regions, the WHO recommends that vaccination be offered to all age groups, including children.

A One-Health Approach to Investigating an Outbreak of Alimentary Tick-Borne Encephalitis in a Non-endemic Area in France (Ain, Eastern France): A Longitudinal Serological Study in Livestock, Detection in Ticks, and the First Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus Isolation and Molecular Characterisation

Tick-borne encephalitis virus’ (TBEV) geographic range and the human incidence are increasing throughout Europe, putting a number of non-endemic regions and countries at risk of outbreaks. In spring 2020, there was an outbreak of tick-born encephalitis (TBE) in Ain, Eastern France, where the virus had never been detected before. All patients but one had consumed traditional unpasteurised raw goat cheese from a local producer. We conducted an investigation in the suspected farm using an integrative One Health approach. Our methodology included (i) the detection of virus in cheese and milk products, (ii) serological testing of all animals in the suspected farm and surrounding farms, (iii) an analysis of the landscape and localisation of wooded area, (iv) the capture of questing ticks and small mammals for virus detection and estimating enzootic hazard, and (v) virus isolation and genome sequencing. This approach allowed us to confirm the alimentary origin of the TBE outbreak and witness in real-time the seroconversion of recently exposed individuals and excretion of virus in goat milk. In addition, we identified a wooded focus area where and around which there is a risk of TBEV exposure. We provide the first TBEV isolate responsible for the first alimentary-transmitted TBE in France, obtained its full-length genome sequence, and found that it belongs to the European subtype of TBEV. TBEV is now a notifiable human disease in France, which should facilitate surveillance of its incidence and distribution throughout France.

Maps of ticks (Acari: Argasidae, Ixodidae) for Austria and South Tyrol, Italy

A first compilation of georeferenced tick locations in Austria and South Tyrol, Italy, is presented here. This allows the tick fauna to be examined in the various climatic regions of the European Alps. The dataset comprises 424 tick locations of Austria and 48 tick locations of South Tyrol, which were digitized from literature and visualized in the form of geographical maps. The tick fauna of Austria includes two species of Argasidae in the genera Argas and Carios and 15 species of Ixodidae in the genera Dermacentor, Haemaphysalis, and Ixodes, altogether 17 tick species. In addition, two species of Ixodidae in the genera Hyalomma (each spring imported by migratory birds) and Rhipicephalus (occasionally imported by dogs returning from abroad with their owners) are included in the tick atlas. Of these, the georeferenced locations of 18 tick species are depicted in maps. The occurrence of the one remaining tick species, Ixodes inopinatus, is given at the level of the federal states. The first Austrian distribution map of the long-legged bat tick Ixodes vespertilionis, which was reported from 21 caves, deserves special mention. The most common and widespread tick species is Ixodes ricinus, with records in all nine federal states of Austria, followed by Ixodes canisuga, Ixodes hexagonus, and I. vespertilionis in six federal states each. Haemaphysalis concinna and Dermacentor reticulatus are only endemic in the eastern plains, while Dermacentor marginatus only occurs in the west, in the Tyrolean Alpine valleys. Eight tick species were reported from South Tyrol, Italy. There, the most frequently flagged tick from the vegetation is also I. ricinus, while D. marginatus and Haemaphysalis punctata are often collected from sheep. The locations are shown together with those from North and East Tyrol on a separate Tyrol map. The tick atlas in Austria and South Tyrol as well as the underlying digital dataset in the supplement contribute to the closing of data gaps in global distribution maps of ticks and improve the data basis for new species distribution models.

Beech tree masting explains the inter-annual variation in the fall and spring peaks of Ixodes ricinus ticks with different time lags

BACKGROUND

The tick Ixodes ricinus is an important vector of tick-borne diseases including Lyme borreliosis. In continental Europe, the nymphal stage of I. ricinus often has a bimodal phenology with a large spring peak and a smaller fall peak. There is consensus about the origin of the spring nymphal peak, but there are two alternative hypotheses for the fall nymphal peak. In the direct development hypothesis, larvae quest as nymphs in the fall of the same year that they obtained their larval blood meal. In the developmental diapause hypothesis, larvae overwinter in the engorged state and quest as nymphs one year after they obtained their larval blood meal. These two hypotheses make different predictions about the time lags that separate the larval blood meal and the density of questing nymphs (DON) in the spring and fall.

METHODS

Inter-annual variation in seed production (masting) by deciduous trees is a time-lagged index for the density of vertebrate hosts (e.g., rodents) which provide blood meals for larval ticks. We used a long-term data set on the masting of the European beech tree and a 15-year study on the DON at 4 different elevation sites in western Switzerland to differentiate between the two alternative hypotheses for the origin of the fall nymphal peak.

RESULTS

Questing I. ricinus nymphs had a bimodal phenology at the three lower elevation sites, but a unimodal phenology at the top elevation site. At the lower elevation sites, the DON in the fall was strongly correlated with the DON in the spring of the following year. The inter-annual variation in the densities of I. ricinus nymphs in the fall and spring was best explained by a 1-year versus a 2-year time lag with the beech tree masting index. Fall nymphs had higher fat content than spring nymphs indicating that they were younger. All these observations are consistent with the direct development hypothesis for the fall peak of I. ricinus nymphs at our study site. Our study provides new insight into the complex bimodal phenology of this important disease vector.

CONCLUSIONS

Public health officials in Europe should be aware that following a strong mast year, the DON will increase 1 year later in the fall and 2 years later in the spring. Studies of I. ricinus populations with a bimodal phenology should consider that the spring and fall peak in the same calendar year represent different generations of ticks.

The regional decline and rise of tick-borne encephalitis incidence do not correlate with Lyme borreliosis, Austria, 2005 to 2018

Background

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus is a human pathogen that is expanding its endemic zones in Europe, emerging in previously unaffected regions. In Austria, increasing incidence in alpine regions in the west has been countered by a decline in traditional endemic areas to the east of the country.

Aim

To shed light on the cause of this disparity, we compared the temporal changes of human TBE incidences in all federal provinces of Austria with those of Lyme borreliosis (LB), which has the same tick vector and rodent reservoir.

Methods

This comparative analysis was based on the surveillance of hospitalised TBE cases by the National Reference Center for TBE and on the analysis of hospitalised LB cases from hospital discharge records across all of Austria from 2005 to 2018.

Results

The incidences of the two diseases and their annual fluctuations were not geographically concordant. Neither the decline in TBE in the eastern lowlands nor the increase in western alpine regions is paralleled by similar changes in the incidence of LB.

Conclusion

The discrepancy between changes in incidence of TBE and LB support the contributions of virus-specific factors beyond the mere availability of tick vectors and/or human outdoor activity, which are a prerequisite for the transmission of both diseases. A better understanding of parameters controlling human pathogenicity and the maintenance of TBE virus in its natural vector−host cycle will generate further insights into the focal nature of TBE and can potentially improve forecasts of TBE risk on smaller regional scales.

Knowledge and vaccination practices among family physicians in northeastern France regarding tick-borne encephalitis virus

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases have been emerging in Europe. The Franche-Comte area, in northeastern France, borders Switzerland, but the two countries differ in their approach to TBE surveillance and prevention. Because family physicians (FPs) are in direct contact with the local population, at-risk of infected tick bites, they need to be well aware of TBE epidemiology and management. An observational survey was performed in 2019 in order to investigate Franche-Comte physicians' knowledge and vaccination practices with regard to TBE. Standardized online questionnaires were sent to a list of FPs practicing in Franche-Comte. The questionnaires included socio-demographic details, questions about TBE knowledge, symptomatology and vaccination. The response rate was 14.7%. FPs practicing in rural areas reported a significantly higher frequency of consultations for tick bites. While 81% of FPs indicated that they had some knowledge about TBE, only 20% were at ease with its clinical symptomatology. Thirty-one % of the FP participants performed TBE vaccinations. A general lack of knowledge about TBE and its clinical symptoms was observed in this survey. FPs play an essential role in screening and preventing TBE, especially those practicing in rural areas and in areas bordering Switzerland.

Operational TBE incidence forecasts for Austria, Germany, and Switzerland 2019-2021

In spring 2019, forecasts of the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) for the next 2 years, i.e. 2019 and 2020, were made for the first time. For this purpose, negative binomial regression models with 4-5 predictors were fitted to the time series of annual human TBE incidences from Austria, Germany, and Switzerland. The most important predictor for TBE incidences is the fructification index of the European beech (Fagus sylvatica) 2 years prior as a proxi for the intensity of the TBE virus transmission cycle. These forecasts were repeated in spring 2020 after the updated predictors and the confirmed TBE cases for 2019 became available. Forecasting TBE incidences for 2020 and 2021 results in 156 ± 19 and 131 ± 23 TBE cases for Austria, 663 ± 95 and 543 ± 112 TBE cases for Germany as well as 472 ± 56 and 350 ± 62 TBE cases for Switzerland. The newly implemented operational TBE forecasts will be verified every year with confirmed TBE cases. An initial verification for 2019 demonstrates the high reliability of the forecasts.

Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus and Its European Distribution in Ticks and Endothermic Mammals

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is the most common viral tick-borne disease in Europe causing thousands of human infections every year. Available risk maps in Europe are solely based on human incidences, but often underestimate areas with TBE virus circulation as shown by several autochthonous cases detected outside known risk areas. A dataset of more than 1300 georeferenced TBE virus detections in ticks and mammals except for humans was compiled and used to estimate the probability of TBE virus presence in Europe. For this, a random forests model was implemented using temperature- and precipitation-dependent bioclimatic variables of the WorldClim dataset, altitude, as well as land cover of the ESA GlobCover dataset. The highest probabilities of TBE virus presence were identified in Central Europe, in the south of the Nordic countries, and in the Baltic countries. The model performance was evaluated by an out-of-bag error (OOB) of 0.174 and a high area under the curve value (AUC) of 0.905. The TBE virus presence maps may subsequently be used to estimate the risk of TBE virus infections in humans and can support decision-makers to identify TBE risk areas and to encourage people to take appropriate actions against tick bites and TBE virus infections.

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases are not random: explaining trend, low- and high-frequency oscillations based on the Austrian TBE time series

BACKGROUND

Why human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases differ from year to year, in some years more 100%, has not been clarified, yet. The cause of the increasing or decreasing trends is also controversial. Austria is the only country in Europe where a 40-year TBE time series and an official vaccine coverage time series are available to investigate these open questions.

METHODS

A series of generalized linear models (GLMs) has been developed to identify demographic and environmental factors associated with the trend and the oscillations of the TBE time series. Both the observed and the predicted TBE time series were subjected to spectral analysis. The resulting power spectra indicate which predictors are responsible for the trend, the high-frequency and the low-frequency oscillations, and with which explained variance they contribute to the TBE oscillations.

RESULTS

The increasing trend can be associated with the demography of the increasing human population. The responsible GLM explains 12% of the variance of the TBE time series. The low-frequency oscillations (10 years) are associated with the decadal changes of the large-scale climate in Central Europe. These are well described by the so-called Scandinavian index. This 10-year oscillation cycle is reinforced by the socio-economic predictor net migration. Considering the net migration and the Scandinavian index increases the explained variance of the GLM to 44%. The high-frequency oscillations (2-3 years) are associated with fluctuations of the natural TBE transmission cycle between small mammals and ticks, which are driven by beech fructification. Considering also fructification 2 years prior explains 64% of the variance of the TBE time series. Additionally, annual sunshine duration as predictor for the human outdoor activity increases the explained variance to 70%.

CONCLUSIONS

The GLMs presented here provide the basis for annual TBE forecasts, which were mainly determined by beech fructification. A total of 3 of the 5 years with full fructification, resulting in high TBE case numbers 2 years later, occurred after 2010. The effects of climate change are therefore not visible through a direct correlation of the TBE cases with rising temperatures, but indirectly via the increased frequency of mast seeding.