Cost-effectiveness of live attenuated influenza vaccine versus inactivated influenza vaccine among children aged 24-59 months in the United States

Evaluation of the Effect of Influenza Vaccine on the Development of Symptoms in SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Outcome in Patients Hospitalized due to COVID-19

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. It is unclear whether influenza vaccination reduces the severity of disease symptoms. Previous studies have suggested a beneficial effect of influenza vaccination on the severity of COVID-19. The aim of this study was to evaluate the possible protective effect of the influenza vaccine on the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 infection symptoms and prognosis in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, identified by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. Chi-square tests, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and multivariate analysis were performed to assess the association between influenza vaccination and the presence of symptoms in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and their outcome.

RESULTS

In this study, 1712 patients received positive laboratory tests for SARS-CoV-2; influenza vaccination was a protective factor against the presence of characteristic COVID-19 symptoms such as polypnea, anosmia, dysgeusia, and fever (p < 0.001). Influenza-vaccinated patients had fewer days of hospitalization (p = 0.029).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study support that influenza vaccination is associated with a decrease in the number of symptoms in patients hospitalized due to COVID-19, with fewer days of hospitalization, but not with the outcome of disease.

Inclusion of Safety-Related Issues in Economic Evaluations for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines: A Systematic Review

(1) Background: Vaccines for seasonal influenza are a good preventive and cost-effective strategy. However, it is unknown if and how these economic evaluations include the adverse events following immunization (AEFI), and what the impact of such inclusion is on the health economic outcomes. (2) Methods: We searched the literature, up to January 2020, to identify economic evaluations of seasonal influenza vaccines that considered AEFIs. The review protocol was published in PROSPERO (CDR42017058523). (3) Results: A total of 52 economic evaluations considered AEFI-related parameters in their analyses, reflecting 16% of the economic evaluations on seasonal influenza vaccines in the initial study selection. Most studies used the societal perspective (64%) and evaluated vaccination of children (37%). Where considered, studies included direct medical costs of AEFIs (90%), indirect costs (27%), and disutilities/quality-adjusted life years loss due to AEFIs (37%). The majority of these studies accounted for the effects of the costs of AEFI on cost-effectiveness for Guillain–Barré syndrome. In those papers allowing cost share estimation, direct medical cost of AFEIs was less than 2% of total direct costs. (4) Conclusions: Although the overall impact of AEFIs on the cost-effectiveness outcomes was found to be low, we urge their inclusion in economic evaluations of seasonal influenza vaccines to reflect comprehensive reports for the decision makers and end-users of the vaccination strategies.

The value of decreasing the duration of the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection

Finding medications or vaccines that may decrease the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could potentially reduce transmission in the broader population. We developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential clinical and economic impact of reducing the infectious period duration. Simulation experiments found that reducing the average infectious period duration could avert a median of 442,852 [treating 25% of symptomatic cases, reducing by 0.5 days, reproductive number (R₀) 3.5, and starting treatment when 15% of the population has been exposed] to 44.4 million SARS-CoV-2 cases (treating 75% of all infected cases, reducing by 3.5 days, R₀ 2.0). With R₀ 2.5, reducing the average infectious period duration by 0.5 days for 25% of symptomatic cases averted 1.4 million cases and 99,398 hospitalizations; increasing to 75% of symptomatic cases averted 2.8 million cases. At $500/person, treating 25% of symptomatic cases saved $209.5 billion (societal perspective). Further reducing the average infectious period duration by 3.5 days averted 7.4 million cases (treating 25% of symptomatic cases). Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R₀ 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). Our study quantifies the potential effects of reducing the SARS-CoV-2 infectious period duration.

Finding medications or vaccines that may decrease the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could potentially reduce transmission in the broader population. We developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential clinical and economic impact of reducing the infectious period duration. Our simulation experiments found that reducing the average infectious period duration could avert a median of 442,852 to 44.4 million SARS-CoV-2 cases, varying the proportion of cases treated, average duration of the infectious period, and the reproductive rate. At $500/person, treating 25% of symptomatic cases saved $209.5 billion (societal perspective, R₀ 2.5). Further reducing the average infectious period duration by 3.5 days averted 7.4 million cases (treating 25% of symptomatic cases). Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R₀ 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). Our study suggests that finding ways to reduce the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 could help decrease its spread and impact.

How Efficacious Must a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine be to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic by Itself

BACKGROUND

Given the continuing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and much of the U.S. implementing social distancing due to the lack of alternatives, there has been a push to develop a vaccine to eliminate the need for social distancing.

METHODS

In 2020, we developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus and vaccination.

RESULTS

Simulation experiments revealed that when vaccine efficacy exceeded 70%, coverage exceeded 60%, and vaccination occurred on day 1, the attack rate dropped to 22% with daily cases not exceeding 3.2 million (reproductive rate, R0, 2.5). When R0 was 3.5, the attack rate dropped to 41% with daily cases not exceeding 14.4 million. Increasing coverage to 75% when vaccination occurred by day 90 resulted in 5% attack rate and daily cases not exceeding 258,029when R0 was 2.5 and a 26% attack rate and maximum daily cases of 22.6 million when R0 was 3.5. When vaccination did not occur until day 180, coverage (i.e., those vaccinated plus those otherwise immune) had to reach 100%. A vaccine with an efficacy between 40% and 70% could still obviate the need for other measures under certain circumstances such as much higher, and in some cases, potentially unachievable, vaccination coverages.

CONCLUSION

Our study found that to either prevent or largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing), the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70%.

Cost effectiveness of school-located influenza vaccination programs for elementary and secondary school children

Background

Studies have noted variations in the cost-effectiveness of school-located influenza vaccination (SLIV), but little is known about how SLIV’s cost-effectiveness may vary by targeted age group (e.g., elementary or secondary school students), or vaccine consent process (paper-based or web-based). Further, SLIV’s cost-effectiveness may be impacted by its spillover effect on practice-based vaccination; prior studies have not addressed this issue.

Methods

We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis on two SLIV programs in upstate New York in 2015–2016: (a) elementary school SLIV using a stepped wedge design with schools as clusters (24 suburban and 18 urban schools) and (b) secondary school SLIV using a cluster randomized trial (16 suburban and 4 urban schools). The cost-per-additionally-vaccinated child (i.e., incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER)) was estimated by dividing the incremental SLIV intervention cost by the incremental effectiveness (i.e., the additional number of vaccinated students in intervention schools compared to control schools). We performed deterministic analyses, one-way sensitivity analyses, and probabilistic analyses.

Results

The overall effectiveness measure (proportion of children vaccinated) was 5.7 and 5.5 percentage points higher, respectively, in intervention elementary (52.8%) and secondary schools (48.2%) than grade-matched control schools. SLIV programs vaccinated a small proportion of children in intervention elementary (5.2%) and secondary schools (2.5%). In elementary and secondary schools, the ICER excluding vaccine purchase was $85.71 and $86.51 per-additionally-vaccinated-child, respectively. When additionally accounting for observed spillover impact on practice-based vaccination, the ICER decreased to $80.53 in elementary schools -- decreasing substantially in secondary schools. (to $53.40). These estimates were higher than the published practice-based vaccination cost (median = $25.50, mean = $45.48). Also, these estimates were higher than our 2009–2011 urban SLIV program mean costs ($65) due to additional costs for use of a new web-based consent system ($12.97 per-additionally-vaccinated-child) and higher project coordination costs in 2015–2016. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that ICER estimates were most sensitive to the SLIV effectiveness.

Conclusions

SLIV raises vaccination rates and may increase practice-based vaccination in primary care practices. While these SLIV programs are effective, to be as cost-effective as practice-based vaccination our SLIV programs would need to vaccinate more students and/or lower the costs for consent systems and project coordination.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.govNCT02227186 (August 25, 2014), updated NCT03137667 (May 2, 2017).

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-019-4228-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Family Spillover Effects in Pediatric Cost-Utility Analyses

BACKGROUND

Childhood illness can impose significant costs and health strains on family members, but these are not routinely captured by pediatric economic evaluations. This review investigated how family "spillover effects" related to costs and health outcomes are considered in pediatric cost-utility analyses (CUAs).

METHODS

We reviewed pediatric CUAs published between 2000 and 2015 using the Tufts Medical Center Cost-effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry and the Pediatric Economic Database Evaluation (PEDE) Registry. We selected studies conducted from the societal perspective and included in both registries. We investigated how frequently family spillover was incorporated into analyses, and how the inclusion of spillover health effects and costs changed CUA results.

RESULTS

We found 142 pediatric CUAs meeting inclusion criteria. Of those, 105 (72%) considered either family spillover costs (n = 98 time costs, n = 33 out-of-pocket costs, n = 2 caregiver healthcare costs) or health outcomes (n = 15). Twenty-four studies included 43 pairs of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) with and without spillover. In 19 pairs of ICERs, adding spillover changed the ICER enough to cross a common cost-effectiveness threshold (i.e., $50,000/QALY, $100,000/QALY, $150,000/QALY; values are in 2016 US$). Incorporating spillover generally made interventions more cost-effective (n = 18; 42%), or did not change CUA results enough to cross a threshold (n = 24; 56%). Including family spillover reduced ICERs by 31% ($40,000/QALY) on average.

CONCLUSION

Most pediatric CUAs conducted from a societal perspective include family costs but fewer include family health effects. Inclusion of family spillover effects tends to make CUA results more favorable. Future pediatric CUAs should aim to more fully incorporate the family burden of illness.

Potential Cost-Effectiveness of a Universal Influenza Vaccine in Older Adults

Background and Objectives

“Universal” vaccines that could have multistrain and multiyear effectiveness are being developed. Their potential cost-effectiveness in geriatric populations is unknown.

Research Design and Methods

A Markov model estimated effects of a theoretical universal influenza vaccine compared with available seasonal vaccines in hypothetical cohorts of U.S. 65+-year olds followed over a 5-year time horizon to capture potential multiyear protection. Outcomes included costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained and influenza cases avoided.

Results

Using hypothetical universal vaccine parameter values (cost $100, vaccine effectiveness 39%, uptake 64%, effectiveness duration 5 years), universal vaccine was less costly than seasonal influenza vaccination strategies. High-dose trivalent influenza vaccine, compared with universal vaccine, gained 0.0028 quality-adjusted life-years and cost $82 more, or $28,700 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Other seasonal vaccines were not favorable economically. Five-year influenza risk with universal vaccination was 32.3% under base case assumptions, compared with <30% with adjuvanted or high-dose vaccine use. In sensitivity analyses, universal vaccine was favored when uptake or vaccine effectiveness was greater than standard-dose influenza vaccine. If absolute universal vaccine effectiveness was 10% less than standard-dose vaccine, universal vaccine could be cost-saving but not more effective than other strategies. Universal vaccine was not favored if its effectiveness duration was <3 years.

Discussion and Implications

Universal vaccine use in older persons could be either cost effective or cost saving when universal vaccine parameters are within plausible ranges. However, if its effectiveness is substantially less than current vaccines, its use would probably not be favored in geriatric populations.

Epidemiologic and economic impact of pharmacies as vaccination locations during an influenza epidemic

Introduction:

During an influenza epidemic, where early vaccination is crucial, pharmacies may be a resource to increase vaccine distribution reach and capacity.

Methods:

We utilized an agent-based model of the US and a clinical and economics outcomes model to simulate the impact of different influenza epidemics and the impact of utilizing pharmacies in addition to traditional (hospitals, clinic/physician offices, and urgent care centers) locations for vaccination for the year 2017.

Results:

For an epidemic with a reproductive rate (R0) of 1.30, adding pharmacies with typical business hours averted 11.9 million symptomatic influenza cases, 23,577 to 94,307 deaths, $1.0 billion in direct (vaccine administration and healthcare) costs, $4.2–44.4 billion in productivity losses, and $5.2–45.3 billion in overall costs (varying with mortality rate). Increasing the epidemic severity (R0 of 1.63), averted 16.0 million symptomatic influenza cases, 35,407 to 141,625 deaths, $1.9 billion in direct costs, $6.0–65.5 billion in productivity losses, and $7.8–67.3 billion in overall costs (varying with mortality rate). Extending pharmacy hours averted up to 16.5 million symptomatic influenza cases, 145,278 deaths, $1.9 billion direct costs, $4.1 billion in productivity loss, and $69.5 billion in overall costs. Adding pharmacies resulted in a cost-benefit of $4.1 to $11.5 billion, varying epidemic severity, mortality rate, pharmacy hours, location vaccination rate, and delay in the availability of the vaccine.

Conclusions:

Administering vaccines through pharmacies in addition to traditional locations in the event of an epidemic can increase vaccination coverage, mitigating up to 23.7 million symptomatic influenza cases, providing cost-savings up to $2.8 billion to third-party payers and $99.8 billion to society. Pharmacies should be considered as points of dispensing epidemic vaccines in addition to traditional settings as soon as vaccines become available.

Cost-effectiveness and public health impact of alternative influenza vaccination strategies in high-risk adults

PURPOSE

High-dose trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (HD-IIV3) or recombinant trivalent influenza vaccine (RIV) may increase influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in adults with conditions that place them at high risk for influenza complications. This analysis models the public health impact and cost-effectiveness (CE) of these vaccines for 50-64year-olds.

METHODS

Markov model CE analysis compared 5 strategies in 50-64year-olds: no vaccination; only standard-dose IIV3 offered (SD-IIV3 only), only quadrivalent influenza vaccine offered (SD-IIV4 only); high-risk patients receiving HD-IIV3, others receiving SD-IIV3 (HD-IIV3 & SD-IIV3); and high-risk patients receiving HD-IIV3, others receiving SD-IIV4 (HD-IIV3 & SD-IIV4). In a secondary analysis, RIV replaced HD-IIV3. Parameters were obtained from U.S. databases, the medical literature and extrapolations from VE estimates. Effectiveness was measured as 3%/year discounted quality adjusted life year (QALY) losses avoided.

RESULTS

The least expensive strategy was SD-IIV3 only, with total costs of $99.84/person. The SD-IIV4 only strategy cost an additional $0.91/person, or $37,700/QALY gained. The HD-IIV3 & SD-IIV4 strategy cost $1.06 more than SD-IIV4 only, or $71,500/QALY gained. No vaccination and HD-IIV3 & SD-IIV3 strategies were dominated. Results were sensitive to influenza incidence, vaccine cost, standard-dose VE in the entire population and high-dose VE in high-risk patients. The CE of RIV for high-risk patients was dependent on as yet unknown parameter values.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on available data, using high-dose influenza vaccine or RIV in middle-aged, high-risk patients may be an economically favorable vaccination strategy with public health benefits. Clinical trials of these vaccines in this population may be warranted.

Cost-Effectiveness and Public Health Effect of Influenza Vaccine Strategies for U.S. Elderly Adults

OBJECTIVES

To compare the cost-effectiveness of four influenza vaccines available in the United States for persons aged 65 and older: trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV3), quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV4), a more-expensive high-dose IIV3, and a newly approved adjuvanted IIV3.

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model and sensitivity analyses.

SETTING

A hypothetical influenza vaccination season modeled according to possible U.S. influenza vaccination policies.

PARTICIPANTS

Hypothetical cohort of individuals aged 65 and older in the United States.

MEASUREMENTS

Cost-effectiveness and public health benefits of available influenza vaccination strategies in U.S. elderly adults.

RESULTS

IIV3 cost $3,690 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, IIV4 cost $20,939 more than IIV3 per QALY gained, and high-dose IIV3 cost $31,214 more per QALY than IIV4. The model projected 83,775 fewer influenza cases and 980 fewer deaths with high-dose IIV3 than with the next most-effective vaccine: IIV4. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, high-dose IIV3 was the favored strategy if willingness to pay is $25,000 or more per QALY gained. Adjuvanted IIV3 cost-effectiveness depends on its price and effectiveness (neither yet determined in the United States) but could be favored if its relative effectiveness is 15% greater than that of IIV3.

CONCLUSION

From economic and public health standpoints, high-dose IIV3 for adults aged 65 years and older is likely to be favored over the other vaccines, based on currently available data. The cost-effectiveness of adjuvanted IIV3 should be reviewed after its effectiveness has been compared with that of other vaccines and its U.S. price is established.

Reversion of Cold-Adapted Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine into a Pathogenic Virus

The only licensed live attenuated influenza A virus vaccines (LAIVs) in the United States (FluMist) are created using internal protein-coding gene segments from the cold-adapted temperature-sensitive master donor virus A/Ann Arbor/6/1960 and HA/NA gene segments from circulating viruses. During serial passage of A/Ann Arbor/6/1960 at low temperatures to select the desired attenuating phenotypes, multiple cold-adaptive mutations and temperature-sensitive mutations arose. A substantial amount of scientific and clinical evidence has proven that FluMist is safe and effective. Nevertheless, no study has been conducted specifically to determine if the attenuating temperature-sensitive phenotype can revert and, if so, the types of substitutions that will emerge (i.e., compensatory substitutions versus reversion of existing attenuating mutations). Serial passage of the monovalent FluMist 2009 H1N1 pandemic vaccine at increasing temperatures in vitro generated a variant that replicated efficiently at higher temperatures. Sequencing of the variant identified seven nonsynonymous mutations, PB1-E51K, PB1-I171V, PA-N350K, PA-L366I, NP-N125Y, NP-V186I, and NS2-G63E. None occurred at positions previously reported to affect the temperature sensitivity of influenza A viruses. Synthetic genomics technology was used to synthesize the whole genome of the virus, and the roles of individual mutations were characterized by assessing their effects on RNA polymerase activity and virus replication kinetics at various temperatures. The revertant also regained virulence and caused significant disease in mice, with severity comparable to that caused by a wild-type 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus.

IMPORTANCE

The live attenuated influenza vaccine FluMist has been proven safe and effective and is widely used in the United States. The phenotype and genotype of the vaccine virus are believed to be very stable, and mutants that cause disease in animals or humans have never been reported. By propagating the virus under well-controlled laboratory conditions, we found that the FluMist vaccine backbone could regain virulence to cause severe disease in mice. The identification of the responsible substitutions and elucidation of the underlying mechanisms provide unique insights into the attenuation of influenza virus, which is important to basic research on vaccines, attenuation reversion, and replication. In addition, this study suggests that the safety of LAIVs should be closely monitored after mass vaccination and that novel strategies to continue to improve LAIV vaccine safety should be investigated.

Cost Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccine for U.S. Children: Live Attenuated and Inactivated Influenza Vaccine

INTRODUCTION

Prior studies showed that live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) is more effective than inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) in children aged 2-8 years, supporting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendations in 2014 for preferential LAIV use in this age group. However, 2014-2015 U.S. effectiveness data indicated relatively poor effectiveness of both vaccines, leading CDC in 2015 to no longer prefer LAIV.

METHODS

An age-structured model of influenza transmission and vaccination was developed, which incorporated both direct and indirect protection induced by vaccination. Based on this model, the cost effectiveness of influenza vaccination strategies in children aged 2-8 years in the U.S. was estimated. The base case assumed a mixed vaccination strategy where 33.3% and 66.7% of vaccinated children aged 2-8 years receive LAIV and IIV, respectively. Analyses were performed in 2014-2015.

RESULTS

Using published meta-analysis vaccine effectiveness data (83% LAIV and 64% IIV), exclusive LAIV use would be a cost-effective strategy when vaccinating children aged 2-8 years, whereas IIV would not be preferred. However, when 2014-2015 U.S. effectiveness data (0% LAIV and 15% IIV) were used, IIV was likely to be preferred.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost effectiveness of influenza vaccination in children aged 2-8 years is highly dependent on vaccine effectiveness; the vaccine type with higher effectiveness is preferred. In general, exclusive IIV use is preferred over LAIV use, as long as vaccine effectiveness is higher for IIV than for LAIV.

Unremarked or Unperformed? Systematic Review on Reporting of Validation Efforts of Health Economic Decision Models in Seasonal Influenza and Early Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

Transparent reporting of validation efforts of health economic models give stakeholders better insight into the credibility of model outcomes. In this study we reviewed recently published studies on seasonal influenza and early breast cancer in order to gain insight into the reporting of model validation efforts in the overall health economic literature.

METHODS

A literature search was performed in Pubmed and Embase to retrieve health economic modelling studies published between 2008 and 2014. Reporting on model validation was evaluated by checking for the word validation, and by using AdViSHE (Assessment of the Validation Status of Health Economic decision models), a tool containing a structured list of relevant items for validation. Additionally, we contacted corresponding authors to ask whether more validation efforts were performed other than those reported in the manuscripts.

RESULTS

A total of 53 studies on seasonal influenza and 41 studies on early breast cancer were included in our review. The word validation was used in 16 studies (30 %) on seasonal influenza and 23 studies (56 %) on early breast cancer; however, in a minority of studies, this referred to a model validation technique. Fifty-seven percent of seasonal influenza studies and 71 % of early breast cancer studies reported one or more validation techniques. Cross-validation of study outcomes was found most often. A limited number of studies reported on model validation efforts, although good examples were identified. Author comments indicated that more validation techniques were performed than those reported in the manuscripts.

CONCLUSIONS

Although validation is deemed important by many researchers, this is not reflected in the reporting habits of health economic modelling studies. Systematic reporting of validation efforts would be desirable to further enhance decision makers' confidence in health economic models and their outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of seasonal inactivated influenza vaccination among pregnant women

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal inactivated influenza vaccination among pregnant women using data from three recent influenza seasons in the United States.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We developed a decision-analytic model following a cohort of 5.2 million pregnant women and their infants aged <6 months to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating women against seasonal influenza during pregnancy from a societal perspective. The main outcome measures were quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained and cost-effectiveness ratios. Data sources included surveillance data, epidemiological studies, and published vaccine cost data. Sensitivity analyses were also performed. All costs and outcomes were discounted at 3% annually.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Total costs (direct and indirect), effects (QALY gains, averted case numbers), and incremental cost-effectiveness of seasonal inactivated influenza vaccination among pregnant women (cost per QALY gained).

RESULTS

Using a recent benchmark of 52.2% vaccination coverage among pregnant women, we studied a hypothetical cohort of 2,753,015 vaccinated pregnant women. With an estimated vaccine effectiveness of 73% among pregnant women and 63% among infants <6 months, QALY gains for each season were 305 (2010-2011), 123 (2011-2012), and 610 (2012-2013). Compared with no vaccination, seasonal influenza vaccination during pregnancy was cost-saving when using data from the 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 influenza seasons. The cost-effectiveness ratio was greater than $100,000/QALY with the 2011-2012 influenza season data, when CDC reported a low attack rate compared to other recent seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination for pregnant women can reduce morbidity from influenza in both pregnant women and their infants aged <6 months. Seasonal influenza vaccination during pregnancy is cost-saving during moderate to severe influenza seasons.

Cost Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccine Choices in Children Aged 2-8 Years in the U.S

INTRODUCTION

Prior evidence found live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) more effective than inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) in children aged 2-8 years, leading CDC in 2014 to prefer LAIV use in this group. However, since 2013, LAIV has not proven superior, leading CDC in 2015 to rescind their LAIV preference statement. Here, the cost effectiveness of preferred LAIV use compared with IIV in children aged 2-8 years is estimated.

METHODS

A Markov model estimated vaccination strategy cost effectiveness in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Base case assumptions were equal vaccine uptake; IIV use when LAIV was not indicated (in 11.7% of the cohort); and no indirect vaccination effects. Sensitivity analyses included estimates of indirect effects from both equation- and agent-based models. Analyses were performed in 2014-2015.

RESULTS

Using prior effectiveness data in children aged 2-8 years (LAIV=83%, IIV=64%), preferred LAIV use was less costly and more effective than IIV (dominant), with results sensitive only to LAIV and IIV effectiveness variation. Using 2014-2015 U.S. effectiveness data (LAIV=0%, IIV=15%), IIV was dominant. In two-way sensitivity analyses, LAIV use was cost saving over the entire range of IIV effectiveness (0%-81%) when absolute LAIV effectiveness was >7.1% higher than IIV, but never cost saving when absolute LAIV effectiveness was <3.5% higher than IIV.

CONCLUSIONS

Results support CDC's decision to no longer prefer LAIV use and provide guidance on effectiveness differences between influenza vaccines that might lead to preferential LAIV recommendation for children aged 2-8 years.

Cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent influenza vaccine in Hong Kong - A decision analysis

Trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) selects one of the 2 co-circulating influenza B lineages whereas quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) includes both lineages. We examined potential cost-effectiveness of QIV versus TIV from perspectives of healthcare provider and society of Hong Kong. A decision tree was designed to simulate the outcomes of QIV vs. TIV in 6 age groups: 0-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years, 15-64 years, 65-79 y and ≥80 years. Direct cost alone, direct and indirect costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) loss due to TIV-unmatched influenza B infection were simulated for each study arm. Outcome measure was incremental cost per QALY (ICER). In base-case analysis, QIV was more effective than TIV in all-age population with additional direct cost per QALY (ICER-direct cost) and additional total cost per QALY (ICER-total cost) of USD 22,603 and USD 12,558, respectively. Age-stratified analysis showed that QIV was cost-effective in age groups 6 months to 9 y and ≥80 years from provider's perspective, and it was cost-effective in all age group except 15-64 y from societal perspective. Percentage of TIV-unmatched influenza B in circulation and additional vaccine cost of QIV were key influential factors. From perspectives of healthcare provider and society, QIV was the preferred option in 52.77% and 66.94% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, respectively. QIV appears to be cost-effective in Hong Kong population, except for age group 15-64 years, from societal perspective. From healthcare provider's perspective, QIV seems to be cost-effective in very young (6 months-9 years) and older (≥80 years) age groups.

Cost effectiveness analysis of Year 2 of an elementary school-located influenza vaccination program-Results from a randomized controlled trial

Background

School-located vaccination against influenza (SLV-I) has the potential to improve current suboptimal influenza immunization coverage for U.S. school-aged children. However, little is known about SLV-I’s cost-effectiveness. The objective of this study is to establish the cost-effectiveness of SLV-I based on a two-year community-based randomized controlled trial (Year 1: 2009–2010 vaccination season, an unusual H1N1 pandemic influenza season, and Year 2: 2010–2011, a more typical influenza season).

Methods

We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis on a two-year randomized controlled trial of a Western New York SLV-I program. SLV-I clinics were offered in 21 intervention elementary schools (Year 1 n = 9,027; Year 2 n = 9,145 children) with standard-of-care (no SLV-I) in control schools (Year 1 n = 4,534 (10 schools); Year 2 n = 4,796 children (11 schools)). We estimated the cost-per-vaccinated child, by dividing the incremental cost of the intervention by the incremental effectiveness (i.e., the number of additionally vaccinated students in intervention schools compared to control schools).

Results

In Years 1 and 2, respectively, the effectiveness measure (proportion of children vaccinated) was 11.2 and 12.0 percentage points higher in intervention (40.7 % and 40.4 %) than control schools. In year 2, the cost-per-vaccinated child excluding vaccine purchase ($59.88 in 2010 US $) consisted of three component costs: (A) the school costs ($8.25); (B) the project coordination costs ($32.33); and (C) the vendor costs excluding vaccine purchase ($16.68), summed through Monte Carlo simulation. Compared to Year 1, the two component costs (A) and (C) decreased, while the component cost (B) increased in Year 2. The cost-per-vaccinated child, excluding vaccine purchase, was $59.73 (Year 1) and $59.88 (Year 2, statistically indistinguishable from Year 1), higher than the published cost of providing influenza vaccination in medical practices ($39.54). However, taking indirect costs (e.g., averted parental costs to visit medical practices) into account, vaccination was less costly in SLV-I ($23.96 in Year 1, $24.07 in Year 2) than in medical practices.

Conclusions

Our two-year trial’s findings reinforced the evidence to support SLV-I as a potentially favorable system to increase childhood influenza vaccination rates in a cost-efficient way. Increased efficiencies in SLV-I are needed for a sustainable and scalable SLV-I program.

Extending the elderly- and risk-group programme of vaccination against seasonal influenza in England and Wales: a cost-effectiveness study

BACKGROUND

The present study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of extending the pre-2013 influenza immunisation programme for high-risk and elderly individuals to those at low risk of developing complications following infection with seasonal influenza.

METHODS

We performed an economic evaluation comparing different extensions of the pre-2013 influenza programme to seven possible age groups of low-risk individuals (aged 2-4 years, 50-64 years, 5-16 years, 2-4 and 50-64 years, 2-16 years, 2-16 and 50-64 years, and 2-64 years). These extensions are evaluated incrementally on four base scenarios (no vaccination, risk group only with coverage as observed between 1995 and 2009, risk group and 65+, and risk group with 75% coverage and 65+). Impact of vaccination is assessed using a transmission model built and parameterised from a previously published study. The study population is all individuals of all ages in England and Wales representing an average total of 52.6 million people over 14 influenza seasons (1995-2009).

RESULTS

The influenza programme (risk group and elderly) prior to 2013 is likely to be cost effective (incremental cost effectiveness ratio: 7,475 £/QALY, net benefit: 253 M£ [15-829]). Extension to any one of the low-risk target groups defined earlier is likely to be cost-effective. However, strategies that do not include vaccination of school-aged children are less likely to be cost-effective. The most efficient strategy is extension to the 5-16 year age group while universal vaccination (extension to all low-risk individuals over 2 years) will achieve the highest net benefit. While extension to the 2-16 year age group is likely to be very cost effective, the cost-effectiveness of extensions beyond 2-16 years is very uncertain. Extension to the 5-16 year age group would likely remain cost-effective even without herd immunity effects to other age groups. As our study includes a strong historical component, our results depend on the efficacy of the influenza vaccine remaining at levels similar to the ones achieved in the past over a long-period of time (assumed to vary between 28% and 70% depending of the circulating strains and age groups).

CONCLUSIONS

Making use of surveillance data from over a decade in conjunction with a dynamic model, we find that vaccination of children in the United Kingdom is likely to be highly cost-effective, not only for their own benefit but also to reduce the disease burden in the rest of the community.

An economic model assessing the value of microneedle patch delivery of the seasonal influenza vaccine

BACKGROUND

New vaccine technologies may improve the acceptability, delivery (potentially enabling self-administration), and product efficacy of influenza vaccines. One such technology is the microneedle patch (MNP), a skin delivery technology currently in development. Although MNPs hold promise in preclinical studies, their potential economic and epidemiologic impacts have not yet been evaluated.

METHODS

We utilized a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) transmission model linked to an economic influenza outcomes model to assess the economic value of introducing the MNP into the current influenza vaccine market in the United States from the third-party payer and societal perspectives. We also explored the impact of different vaccination settings, self-administration, the MNP price, vaccine efficacy, compliance, and MNP market share. Outcomes included costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), cases, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs; cost/QALY).

RESULTS

With healthcare provider administration, MNP introduction would be cost-effective (ICERs ≤$23,347/QALY) at all MNP price points ($9.50-$30) and market shares (10-60%) assessed, except when compliance and efficacy were assumed to be the same as existing vaccines and the MNP occupied a 10% market share. If MNP self-administration were available (assuming the same efficacy as current technologies), MNP compliance or its efficacy would need to increase by ≥3% in order to be cost-effective (ICERs ≤$1401/QALY), assuming a 2% reduction in administration success with unsupervised self-administration. Under these conditions, MNP introduction would be cost-effective for all price points and market shares assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

When healthcare providers administered the MNP, its introduction would be cost-effective or dominant (i.e., less costly and more effective) in the majority of scenarios assessed. If self-administration were available, MNP introduction would be cost-effective if it increased compliance enough to overcome any decrease in self-administration success or if the MNP presentation afforded an increase in efficacy over current delivery methods for influenza vaccines.

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of intranasal live attenuated influenza vaccination of children in Germany

In 2011, intranasally administered live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) was approved in the EU for prophylaxis of seasonal influenza in 2-17-year-old children. Our objective was to estimate the potential epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of an LAIV-based extension of the influenza vaccination programme to healthy children in Germany. An age-structured dynamic model of influenza transmission was developed and combined with a decision-tree to evaluate different vaccination strategies in the German health care system. Model inputs were based on published literature or were derived by expert consulting using the Delphi technique. Unit costs were drawn from German sources. Under base-case assumptions, annual routine vaccination of children aged 2-17 years with LAIV assuming an uptake of 50% would prevent, across all ages, 16 million cases of symptomatic influenza, over 600,000 cases of acute otitis media, nearly 130,000 cases of community-acquired pneumonia, nearly 1.7 million prescriptions of antibiotics and over 165,000 hospitalisations over 10 years. The discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was <euro> 1,228 per quality-adjusted life year gained from a broad third-party payer perspective (including reimbursed direct costs and specific transfer payments), when compared with the current strategy of vaccinating primarily risk groups with the conventional trivalent inactivated vaccine. Inclusion of patient co-payments and indirect costs in terms of productivity losses resulted in discounted 10-year cost savings of <euro> 3.4 billion. In conclusion, adopting universal influenza immunisation of healthy children and adolescents would lead to a substantial reduction in influenza-associated disease at a reasonable cost to the German statutory health insurance system. On the basis of the epidemiological and health economic simulation results, a recommendation of introducing annual routine influenza vaccination of children 2-17 years of age might be taken into consideration.

Seasonal influenza vaccination for children in Thailand: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza is a major cause of mortality worldwide. Routine immunization of children has the potential to reduce this mortality through both direct and indirect protection, but has not been adopted by any low- or middle-income countries. We developed a framework to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination policies in developing countries and used it to consider annual vaccination of school- and preschool-aged children with either trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) or trivalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in Thailand. We also compared these approaches with a policy of expanding TIV coverage in the elderly.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed an age-structured model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of eight vaccination policies parameterized using country-level data from Thailand. For policies using LAIV, we considered five different age groups of children to vaccinate. We adopted a Bayesian evidence-synthesis framework, expressing uncertainty in parameters through probability distributions derived by fitting the model to prospectively collected laboratory-confirmed influenza data from 2005-2009, by meta-analysis of clinical trial data, and by using prior probability distributions derived from literature review and elicitation of expert opinion. We performed sensitivity analyses using alternative assumptions about prior immunity, contact patterns between age groups, the proportion of infections that are symptomatic, cost per unit vaccine, and vaccine effectiveness. Vaccination of children with LAIV was found to be highly cost-effective, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios between about 2,000 and 5,000 international dollars per disability-adjusted life year averted, and was consistently preferred to TIV-based policies. These findings were robust to extensive sensitivity analyses. The optimal age group to vaccinate with LAIV, however, was sensitive both to the willingness to pay for health benefits and to assumptions about contact patterns between age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccinating school-aged children with LAIV is likely to be cost-effective in Thailand in the short term, though the long-term consequences of such a policy cannot be reliably predicted given current knowledge of influenza epidemiology and immunology. Our work provides a coherent framework that can be used for similar analyses in other low- and middle-income countries.

Quantifying the economic value and quality of life impact of earlier influenza vaccination

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccination is administered throughout the influenza disease season, even as late as March. Given such timing, what is the value of vaccinating the population earlier than currently being practiced?

METHODS

We used real data on when individuals were vaccinated in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, and the following 2 models to determine the value of vaccinating individuals earlier (by the end of September, October, and November): Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED), an agent-based model (ABM), and FluEcon, our influenza economic model that translates cases from the ABM to outcomes and costs [health care and lost productivity costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)]. We varied the reproductive number (R0) from 1.2 to 1.6.

RESULTS

Applying the current timing of vaccinations averted 223,761 influenza cases, $16.3 million in direct health care costs, $50.0 million in productivity losses, and 804 in QALYs, compared with no vaccination (February peak, R0 1.2). When the population does not have preexisting immunity and the influenza season peaks in February (R0 1.2-1.6), moving individuals who currently received the vaccine after September to the end of September could avert an additional 9634-17,794 influenza cases, $0.6-$1.4 million in direct costs, $2.1-$4.0 million in productivity losses, and 35-64 QALYs. Moving the vaccination of just children to September (R0 1.2-1.6) averted 11,366-1660 influenza cases, $0.6-$0.03 million in direct costs, $2.3-$0.2 million in productivity losses, and 42-8 QALYs. Moving the season peak to December increased these benefits, whereas increasing preexisting immunity reduced these benefits.

CONCLUSION

Even though many people are vaccinated well after September/October, they likely are still vaccinated early enough to provide substantial cost-savings.

Increasing uptake of live attenuated influenza vaccine among children in the United States, 2008-2014

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommends annual influenza vaccination for all persons in the United States aged ≥6 months. On June 25, 2014, ACIP preferentially recommended live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) for healthy children aged 2-8 years. Little is known about national LAIV uptake. To determine uptake of LAIV relative to inactivated influenza vaccine, we analyzed vaccination records from six immunization information system sentinel sites (approximately 10% of US population). LAIV usage increased over time in all sites. Among children 2-8 years of age vaccinated for influenza, exclusive LAIV usage in the collective sentinel site area increased from 20.1% (2008-09 season) to 38.0% (2013-14). During 2013-14, at least half of vaccinated children received LAIV in Minnesota (50.0%) and North Dakota (55.5%). Increasing LAIV usage suggests formulation acceptability, and this preexisting trend offers a favorable context for implementation of ACIP's preferential recommendation.

Vaccination of children with a live-attenuated, intranasal influenza vaccine - analysis and evaluation through a Health Technology Assessment

BACKGROUND

Influenza is a worldwide prevalent infectious disease of the respiratory tract annually causing high morbidity and mortality in Germany. Influenza is preventable by vaccination and this vaccination is so far recommended by the The German Standing Committee on Vaccination (STIKO) as a standard vaccination for people from the age of 60 onwards. Up to date a parenterally administered trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) has been in use almost exclusively. Since 2011 however a live-attenuated vaccine (LAIV) has been approved additionally. Consecutively, since 2013 the STIKO recommends LAIV (besides TIV) for children from 2 to 17 years of age, within the scope of vaccination by specified indications. LAIV should be preferred administered in children from 2 to 6 of age. The objective of this Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is to address various research issues regarding the vaccination of children with LAIV. The analysis was performed from a medical, epidemiological and health economic perspective, as well as from an ethical, social and legal point of view.

METHOD

An extensive systematic database research was performed to obtain relevant information. In addition a supplementary research by hand was done. Identified literature was screened in two passes by two independent reviewers using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Included literature was evaluated in full-text using acknowledged standards. Studies were graded with the highest level of evidence (1++), if they met the criteria of European Medicines Agency (EMA)-Guidance: Points to consider on applications with 1. meta-analyses; 2. one pivotal study.

RESULTS

For the medical section, the age of the study participants ranges from 6 months to 17 years. Regarding study efficacy, in children aged 6 months to ≤7 years, LAIV is superior to placebo as well as to a vac-cination with TIV (Relative Risk Reduction - RRR - of laboratory confirmed influenza infection approx. 80% and 50%, respectively). In children aged >7 to 17 years (= 18th year of their lives), LAIV is superior to a vaccination with TIV (RRR 32%). For this age group, no studies that compared LAIV with placebo were identified. It can be concluded that there is high evidence for superior efficacy of LAIV (compared to placebo or TIV) among children aged 6 months to ≤7 years. For children from >7 to 17 years, there is moderate evidence for superiority of LAIV for children with asthma, while direct evidence for children from the general population is lacking for this age group. Due to the efficacy of LAIV in children aged 6 months to ≤7 years (high evidence) and the efficacy of LAIV in children with asthma aged >7 to 17 years (moderate evidence), LAIV is also very likely to be efficacious among children in the general population aged >7 to 17 years (indirect evidence). In the included studies with children aged 2 to 17 years, LAIV was safe and well-tolerated; while in younger children LAIV may increase the risk of obstruction of the airways (e.g. wheezing). In the majority of the evaluated epidemiological studies, LAIV proved to be effective in the prevention of influenza among children aged 2-17 years under everyday conditions (effectiveness). The trend appears to indicate that LAIV is more effective than TIV, although this can only be based on limited evidence for methodological reasons (observational studies). In addition to a direct protective effect for vaccinated children themselves, indirect protective ("herd protection") effects were reported among non-vaccinated elderly population groups, even at relatively low vaccination coverage of children. With regard to safety, LAIV generally can be considered equivalent to TIV. This also applies to the use among children with mild chronically obstructive conditions, from whom LAIV therefore does not have to be withheld. In all included epidemiological studies, there was some risk of bias identified, e.g. due to residual confounding or other methodology-related sources of error. In the evaluated studies, both the vaccination of children with previous illnesses and the routine vaccination of (healthy) children frequently involve cost savings. This is especially the case if one includes indirect costs from a societal perspective. From a payer perspective, a routine vaccination of children is often regarded as a highly cost-effective intervention. However, not all of the studies arrive at consistent results. In isolated cases, relatively high levels of cost-effectiveness are reported that make it difficult to perform a conclusive assessment from an economic perspective. Based on the included studies, it is not possible to make a clear statement about the budget impact of using LAIV. None of the evaluated studies provides results for the context of the German healthcare setting. The efficacy of the vaccine, physicians' recommendations, and a potential reduction in influenza symptoms appear to play a role in the vaccination decision taken by parents/custodians on behalf of their children. Major barriers to the utilization of influenza vaccination services are a low level of perception and an underestimation of the disease risk, reservations concerning the safety and efficacy of the vaccine, and potential side effects of the vaccine. For some of the parents surveyed, the question as to whether the vaccine is administered as an injection or nasal spray might also be important.

CONCLUSION

In children aged 2 to 17 years, the use of LAIV can lead to a reduction of the number of influenza cases and the associated burden of disease. In addition, indirect preventive effects may be expected, especially among elderly age groups. Currently there are no data available for the German healthcare setting. Long-term direct and indirect effectiveness and safety should be supported by surveillance programs with a broader use of LAIV. Since there is no general model available for the German healthcare setting, statements concerning the cost-effectiveness can be made only with precaution. Beside this there is a need to conduct health eco-nomic studies to show the impact of influenza vaccination for children in Germany. Such studies should be based on a dynamic transmission model. Only these models are able to include the indirect protective effects of vaccination correctly. With regard to ethical, social and legal aspects, physicians should discuss with parents the motivations for vaccinating their children and upcoming barriers in order to achieve broader vaccination coverage. The present HTA provides an extensive basis for further scientific approaches and pending decisions relating to health policy.

Assessing the evidence: live attenuated influenza vaccine in children younger than 2 years. A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) is effective in children but contraindicated in children <2 years of age.

METHODS

We searched Medline, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus, PsycInfo and CINAHL through February 2013 for existing systematic reviews, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies (for safety). We included studies enrolling healthy children <2 years of age who received LAIV, compared with placebo or inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV). Data were extracted independently by 2 investigators. The relative risk (RR) was pooled across studies using the random effects model.

RESULTS

We found 7 eligible randomized controlled trials and 2 observational studies. Randomized controlled trials included 6281 children and were at low to moderate risk of bias. LAIV reduced the incidence of influenza compared with placebo (relative risk = 0.36, 95% confidence interval: 0.23-0.58, P < 0.05) with a number needed to vaccinate of 17. LAIV increased the incidence of minor side effects (fever and rhinorrhea). LAIV had a similar effect in preventing influenza (relative risk = 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.45-1.30, P > 0.05) compared with inactivated influenza vaccine. There was an increase of hospitalization rate (post hoc analysis) and medical attended wheezing with LAIV.

CONCLUSIONS

LAIV is highly effective in children <2 years of age compared with placebo and is as effective to inactivated influenza vaccine. The safety profile of LAIV is reasonable although evidence is sparse. LAIV may be considered as an option in this age group particularly during seasons with vaccine shortage.

Prevention of influenza in healthy children

Healthy children are high transmitters of influenza and can experience poor influenza outcomes. Many questions remain about the efficacy and impect of preventive measures because most existing studies report imprecise proxies of influenza incidence, do not follow subjects throughout the entire influenza season and across multiple influenza seasons, or do not control for important factors such as timing of implementation and social contact patterns. Modeling and simulation are key methodologies to answer questions regarding influenza prevention. While vaccination may be the most efficacious existing intervention, variations in circulating strains and children's immune systems keep current vaccines from being fully protective, necessitating further clinical and economic studies and technology improvements. Hand hygiene appears to be an important adjunct but improving compliance, standardizing regimens and quantifying its impact remain challenging. Future studies should help better define the specific indications and circumstances for antiviral use and the role of nutritional supplements and nonpharmaceutical interventions.

Cost effectiveness analysis of elementary school-located vaccination against influenza--results from a randomized controlled trial

School-located vaccination against influenza (SLV-I) has been suggested to help meet the need for annual vaccination of large numbers of school-aged children with seasonal influenza vaccine. However, little is known about the cost and cost-effectiveness of SLV-I. We conducted a cost-analysis and a cost-effectiveness analysis based on a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of an SLV-I program implemented in Monroe County, New York during the 2009-2010 vaccination season. We hypothesized that SLV-I is more cost effective, or less-costly, compared to a conventional, office-located influenza vaccination delivery. First and second SLV-I clinics were offered in 21 intervention elementary schools (n=9027 children) with standard of care (no SLV-I) in 11 control schools (n=4534 children). The direct costs, to purchase and administer vaccines, were estimated from our RCT. The effectiveness measure, receipt of ≥1 dose of influenza vaccine, was 13.2 percentage points higher in SLV-I schools than control schools. The school costs ($9.16/dose in 2009 dollars) plus project costs ($23.00/dose) plus vendor costs excluding vaccine purchase ($19.89/dose) was higher in direct costs ($52.05/dose) than the previously reported mean/median cost [$38.23/$21.44 per dose] for providing influenza vaccination in pediatric practices. However SLV-I averted parent costs to visit medical practices ($35.08 per vaccine). Combining direct and averted costs through Monte Carlo Simulation, SLV-I costs were $19.26/dose in net costs, which is below practice-based influenza vaccination costs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated to be $92.50 or $38.59 (also including averted parent costs). When additionally accounting for the costs averted by disease prevention (i.e., both reduced disease transmission to household members and reduced loss of productivity from caring for a sick child), the SLV-I model appears to be cost-saving to society, compared to "no vaccination". Our findings support the expanded implementation of SLV-I, but also the need to focus on efficient delivery to reduce direct costs.

Cost-effectiveness of childhood influenza vaccination in England and Wales: Results from a dynamic transmission model

This study uses a dynamic influenza transmission model to directly compare the cost-effectiveness of various policies of annual paediatric influenza vaccination in England and Wales, varying the target age range and level of coverage. The model accounts for both the protection of those immunised and the indirect protection of the rest of the population via herd immunity. The impact of augmenting current practice with a policy to vaccinate pre-school age children, on their own or with school age children, was assessed in terms of quality adjusted life years and health service costs. Vaccinating 2-18 year olds was estimated to be the most cost-effective policy in an incremental cost-effectiveness analysis, at an assumed annual vaccine uptake rate of 50%. The mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for this policy was estimated at £251/QALY relative to current practice. Paediatric vaccination would appear to be a highly cost-effective intervention that directly protects those targeted for vaccination, with indirect protection extending to both the very young and the elderly.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of intranasal live attenuated vaccine (LAIV) versus injectable inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) for Canadian children and adolescents

Background

Influenza affects all age groups and is common in children. Between 15% and 42% of preschool- and school-aged children experience influenza each season. Recently, intranasal live attenuated influenza vaccine, trivalent (LAIV) has been approved in Canada.

Objective

The objective of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of LAIV compared with that of the injectable inactivated influenza vaccine, trivalent (TIV) in Canadian children and adolescents from both a payer (eg. Ministry of Health) perspective and a societal perspective.

Methods

A cost-effectiveness model comparing LAIV and TIV in children aged 24–59 months old was supplemented by primary (ie, a survey of 144 Canadian physicians) and secondary (eg, literature) data to model children aged 2–17 years old. Parameter uncertainty was addressed through univariate and probability analyses.

Results

Although LAIV increased vaccination costs when compared to TIV, LAIV reduced the number of influenza cases and lowered the number of hospitalizations, emergency room visits, outpatient visits, and parents’ days lost from work. The estimated offsets in direct and societal costs saved were CAD$4.20 and CAD$35.34, respectively, per vaccinated child aged 2–17 years old. When costs and outcomes were considered, LAIV when compared to TIV, was the dominant strategy. At a willingness to pay of CAD$50,000 per quality adjusted life year gained, or CAD$100,000 per quality adjusted life year gained, the probabilistic results indicated that the probability of LAIV being cost-effective was almost 1.

Conclusions

LAIV reduces the burden of influenza in children and adolescents. Consistent with previously reported results, vaccinating children with LAIV, rather than TIV, is the dominant strategy from both a societal perspective and a Ministry of Health perspective.

Economic evaluations of childhood influenza vaccination: a critical review

The potential benefits of influenza vaccination programmes targeted at children have gained increasing attention in recent years. We conducted a literature search of economic evaluations of influenza vaccination in those aged ≤18 years. The search revealed 20 relevant articles, which were reviewed. The studies differed widely in terms of the costs and benefits that were included. The conclusions were generally favourable for vaccination, but often applied a wider perspective (i.e. including productivity losses) than the reference case for economic evaluations used in many countries. Several evaluations estimated outcomes from a single-year epidemiological study, which may limit their validity given the year-to-year variation in influenza transmissibility, virulence, vaccine match and prior immunity. Only one study used a dynamic transmission model able to fully incorporate the indirect herd protection to the wider community. The use of dynamic models offers great scope to capture the population-wide implications of seasonal vaccination efforts, particularly those targeted at children.

Cost-benefit analysis of in-hospital influenza vaccination of postpartum women

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the potential economic benefits associated with hospital-based postpartum influenza vaccination.

METHODS

We constructed a decision analysis model to estimate the potential cost benefit of this strategy from both a societal perspective and a third-party perspective. We included a hypothetical cohort of 1.47 million U.S. postpartum women, assuming an influenza season beginning September 1 and ending April 30. Probabilities and costs were derived from published literature, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, and expert recommendations. We used one-way and two-way sensitivity analyses. All cost estimates were inflated to year 2010 U.S. dollars and discounted at a 3% annual discount rate.

RESULTS

From the societal perceptive, the expected costs per vaccinated and unvaccinated mother were $328.45 and $341.02 respectively, resulting in an expected net benefit of $12.57 per vaccinated mother. The overall savings in the cohort were predicted to range from $3.69 to $14.75 million, depending on the vaccination coverage rate. This strategy would be cost-beneficial, holding all other variables to the base case, if the annual maternal influenza attack rate is more than 2.8%, influenza vaccine efficacy is more than 47%, or if vaccine acquisition and administration cost per dose are less than $32.78. The strategy would not generate net savings from the third-party perspective. Sensitivity analyses were robust, but disease incidence and vaccine efficacy were important drivers.

CONCLUSION

Our model suggests that postpartum influenza vaccination is a cost-beneficial approach for prevention of maternal and infantile influenza from a societal perspective.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III.

The influence of altruism on influenza vaccination decisions

Game theory is based on the assumption that individuals act according to self-interest and make decisions that maximize their personal payoffs. To test this fundamental assumption, we conducted a survey study in the context of influenza vaccination decisions. Contrary to the assumption of self-interest, we found that altruism plays an important role in vaccination decisions. Nevertheless, altruistic motivation has not yet been considered in epidemiological models, in predictions of vaccination decisions or in the design of vaccination policies. To determine the impact of altruism on the adherence to optimal vaccination policies and on resulting disease burden, we incorporated altruism into a game-theoretic epidemiological model of influenza vaccination. We found that altruism significantly shifted vaccination decisions away from individual self-interest and towards the community optimum, greatly reducing the total cost, morbidity and mortality for the community. Therefore, promoting altruism could be a potential strategy to improve public health outcomes.

Engineering temperature sensitive live attenuated influenza vaccines from emerging viruses

The licensed live attenuated influenza A vaccine (LAIV) in the United States is created by making a reassortant containing six internal genes from a cold-adapted master donor strain (ca A/AA/6/60) and two surface glycoprotein genes from a circulating/emerging strain (e.g., A/CA/7/09 for the 2009/2010 H1N1 pandemic). Technologies to rapidly create recombinant viruses directly from patient specimens were used to engineer alternative LAIV candidates that have genomes composed entirely of vRNAs from pandemic or seasonal strains. Multiple mutations involved in the temperature-sensitive (ts) phenotype of the ca A/AA/6/60 master donor strain were introduced into a 2009 H1N1 pandemic strain rA/New York/1682/2009 (rNY1682-WT) to create rNY1682-TS1, and additional mutations identified in other ts viruses were added to rNY1682-TS1 to create rNY1682-TS2. Both rNY1682-TS1 and rNY1682-TS2 replicated efficiently at 30°C and 33°C. However, rNY1682-TS1 was partially restricted, and rNY1682-TS2 was completely restricted at 39°C. Additionally, engineering the TS1 or TS2 mutations into a distantly related human seasonal H1N1 influenza A virus also resulted pronounced restriction of replication in vitro. Clinical symptoms and virus replication in the lungs of mice showed that although rNY1682-TS2 and the licensed FluMist(®)-H1N1pdm LAIV that was used to combat the 2009/2010 pandemic were similarly attenuated, the rNY1682-TS2 was more protective upon challenge with a virulent mutant of pandemic H1N1 virus or a heterologous H1N1 (A/PR/8/1934) virus. This study demonstrates that engineering key temperature sensitive mutations (PB1-K391E, D581G, A661T; PB2-P112S, N265S, N556D, Y658H) into the genomes of influenza A viruses attenuates divergent human virus lineages and provides an alternative strategy for the generation of LAIVs.

The population based socioeconomic burden of pediatric influenza-associated hospitalization in Hong Kong

We described the monetary and non-monetary cost incurred by children hospitalized for virologically confirmed influenza virus infection in a population-based prospective 3-year study. The mean direct and indirect cost of each child hospitalized was $1217.82 (95% CI, 1111.54-1324.23) and $1328.33 (95% CI, $1136.79-1520.00) for influenza A and B, respectively. School age patients took a mean (SD) of 4.70 (3.05) days and 5.31 (3.62) days of sick leave for influenza A and B infection, respectively. Pediatric influenza A and B hospitalization was associated with 662-1046 days of school absenteeism and 214-336 days of parental work loss per 10,000 population <18 years of age per year. We showed that the cost incurred by hospitalization alone, was comparable to the cost of annual universal pediatric influenza vaccination especially in children 6 months to under 6 years of age and vaccination would result in much larger cost-savings when non-monetary costs are included.

Cost-effectiveness and socio-economic aspects of childhood influenza vaccination

Children have high rates of healthcare utilization due to influenza. In addition, children also transmit influenza to others in their households and the community. The costs of influenza in children include the direct medical care costs from increased outpatient visits and hospitalizations, and also indirect costs due to productivity losses especially for their parents and due to transmission of the virus to others. A variety of studies using different methods and assumptions have assessed the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination of children, and many find that vaccination is either cost saving or cost effective.

Influence of timing of seasonal influenza vaccination on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in pregnancy

The purpose of this review was to estimate the impact of timing of seasonal influenza vaccination during pregnancy on health and economic outcomes. Cost-effectiveness analysis with a dynamic model of the US population of pregnant women and infants who were <6 months incorporated seasonal variation in influenza incidence. Compared with no vaccination, seasonal influenza vaccination in pregnancy costs $70,089 per quality-adjusted life year. Most of the benefit for infants was limited to those whose mothers were vaccinated within the first 4 weeks of vaccine availability. Once all women who were pregnant at the time of vaccine availability were vaccinated, vaccination of newly pregnant women had benefits for mothers but not infants. Delay of vaccination beyond November reduced both effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. The greatest population benefit from seasonal influenza vaccination in pregnancy was realized if pregnant women were vaccinated as soon as possible after trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine became available. Efforts to increase vaccine rates should be concentrated early in the influenza season.

Erratic flu vaccination emerges from short-sighted behavior in contact networks

The effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination programs depends on individual-level compliance. Perceptions about risks associated with infection and vaccination can strongly influence vaccination decisions and thus the ultimate course of an epidemic. Here we investigate the interplay between contact patterns, influenza-related behavior, and disease dynamics by incorporating game theory into network models. When individuals make decisions based on past epidemics, we find that individuals with many contacts vaccinate, whereas individuals with few contacts do not. However, the threshold number of contacts above which to vaccinate is highly dependent on the overall network structure of the population and has the potential to oscillate more wildly than has been observed empirically. When we increase the number of prior seasons that individuals recall when making vaccination decisions, behavior and thus disease dynamics become less variable. For some networks, we also find that higher flu transmission rates may, counterintuitively, lead to lower (vaccine-mediated) disease prevalence. Our work demonstrates that rich and complex dynamics can result from the interaction between infectious diseases, human contact patterns, and behavior.

Prevalence of antibodies against seasonal influenza A and B viruses in children in Netherlands

To gain insight into the age at which children become infected with influenza viruses for the first time, we analyzed the seroprevalence of antibodies against influenza viruses in children 0 to 7 years of age in the Netherlands. Serum samples were collected during a cross-sectional population-based study in 2006 and 2007 and were tested for the presence of antibodies against influenza A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B viruses representative of viruses present in previous influenza seasons using the hemagglutination inhibition assay. The seroprevalence of antibodies to influenza virus was higher in children 1 to 6 months of age than in children 7 to 12 months of age, which likely reflects the presence of maternally derived antibodies. The proportion of study subjects >1 year of age with detectable antibodies against influenza viruses gradually increased with age until they reached the age of 6 years, when they all had antibodies to at least one influenza A virus. These findings may have implications for the development of vaccination strategies aiming at the protection of young children against seasonal and/or pandemic influenza virus infection.

Optimizing protection against influenza in children eligible for the vaccine for children program

BACKGROUND

Children eligible for the Vaccines for Children (VFC) program are immunized against influenza at lower rates and less likely to receive their second recommended dose. Live, attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) has higher vaccine efficacies (VEs) than trivalent, inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV). Increased use of LAIV could provide better protection against influenza for this vulnerable population.

METHODS

Published VE estimates and vaccine utilization data from a nationwide study of randomly selected pediatric practices were used to model percentages of VFC children that would be immune following immunization.

RESULTS

A total of 22,329 influenza vaccine doses were administered to 20,626 VFC-eligible children aged 24 months to 17 years in the study population. Among children recommended to receive 2 doses, only 1234 of 3018 (41%) aged 24 to 59 months and 469 of 1908 (25%) aged 5 to 8 years received their second dose. Of the vaccinated VFC population, 73% to 83% would be immune using LAIV compared with 53% to 68% with TIV. Differences in aggregate immunity were greatest among 24- to 59-month olds with 71% to 78% of LAIV immunized children immune compared with 48% to 60% with TIV. In this model, 29% to 47% more children aged 24 to 59 months would be immune prior to peak influenza season when vaccinated with LAIV.

CONCLUSIONS

Because VE is higher and most VFC children fail to receive their second recommended dose, population protection is substantially higher with LAIV. Although LAIV cannot be given to all children, LAIV should be used preferentially for the VFC population, particularly for children aged 24 to 59 months and those needing 2 doses.

To test or to treat? An analysis of influenza testing and antiviral treatment strategies using economic computer modeling

BACKGROUND

Due to the unpredictable burden of pandemic influenza, the best strategy to manage testing, such as rapid or polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and antiviral medications for patients who present with influenza-like illness (ILI) is unknown.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We developed a set of computer simulation models to evaluate the potential economic value of seven strategies under seasonal and pandemic influenza conditions: (1) using clinical judgment alone to guide antiviral use, (2) using PCR to determine whether to initiate antivirals, (3) using a rapid (point-of-care) test to determine antiviral use, (4) using a combination of a point-of-care test and clinical judgment, (5) using clinical judgment and confirming the diagnosis with PCR testing, (6) treating all with antivirals, and (7) not treating anyone with antivirals. For healthy younger adults (<65 years old) presenting with ILI in a seasonal influenza scenario, strategies were only cost-effective from the societal perspective. Clinical judgment, followed by PCR and point-of-care testing, was found to be cost-effective given a high influenza probability. Doubling hospitalization risk and mortality (representing either higher risk individuals or more virulent strains) made using clinical judgment to guide antiviral decision-making cost-effective, as well as PCR testing, point-of-care testing, and point-of-care testing used in conjunction with clinical judgment. For older adults (> or = 65 years old), in both seasonal and pandemic influenza scenarios, employing PCR was the most cost-effective option, with the closest competitor being clinical judgment (when judgment accuracy > or = 50%). Point-of-care testing plus clinical judgment was cost-effective with higher probabilities of influenza. Treating all symptomatic ILI patients with antivirals was cost-effective only in older adults.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our study delineated the conditions under which different testing and antiviral strategies may be cost-effective, showing the importance of accuracy, as seen with PCR or highly sensitive clinical judgment.

Relative impact of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus in young children

OBJECTIVE

We measured the relative impact of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in young children in terms of emergency department (ED) visits, clinical care requirements, and overall resource use.

METHODS

Patients who were aged <or=7 years and treated in the ED of a tertiary care pediatric hospital for an acute respiratory infection were enrolled during 2 winter seasons between 2003 and 2005. We quantified health care resource use for children with influenza or RSV infections, and extrapolated results to estimate the national resource use associated with influenza and RSV infections.

RESULTS

Nationally, an estimated 10.2 ED visits per 1000 children were attributable to influenza and 21.5 visits per 1000 to RSV. Children who were aged 0 to 23 months and infected with RSV had the highest rate of ED visits with 64.4 visits per 1000 children. Significantly more children required hospitalization as a result of an RSV infection compared with influenza, with national hospitalization rates of 8.5 and 1.4 per 1000 children, respectively. The total number of workdays missed yearly by caregivers of children who required ED care was 246965 days for influenza infections and 716404 days for RSV infections.

CONCLUSION

For young children, RSV is associated with higher rates of ED visits, hospitalization, and caregiver resource use than is influenza. Our results provide data on the large number of children who receive outpatient care for influenza and RSV illnesses and serve to inform analyses of prevention programs and treatments for both influenza and RSV disease.

Oseltamivir for influenza postexposure prophylaxis: economic evaluation for children aged 1-12 years in the U.S

BACKGROUND

Postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) with oseltamivir (Tamiflu) has been shown to be effective and is approved in children exposed to a case of influenza in a household setting. Given limited healthcare budgets, it is important to understand the costs and cost effectiveness of PEP in children.

PURPOSE

This study aims to estimate the cost effectiveness of oseltamivir PEP for children aged 1-12 years in the U.S.

METHODS

A decision-tree model with a 1-year time horizon was used to assess the cost effectiveness of oseltamivir PEP for 10 days at approved doses compared with no prophylaxis for children aged 1-12 years who were exposed to a household index case of influenza from the U.S. societal and payer perspectives. Model inputs included U.S. influenza epidemiology data, efficacy data from oseltamivir PEP clinical trials, direct medical resource use and costs for PEP and influenza treatment derived from large U.S. databases, and indirect costs based on caregiver lost productivity. Base-case estimates were tested in extensive sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

For the societal perspective, the model estimated 12,184 fewer cases of influenza per 100,000 children exposed and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,452 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Results were most sensitive to the influenza attack rate, PEP protective efficacy, and prescribing patterns for initiating PEP. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that oseltamivir PEP was likely to be cost effective for all willingness-to-pay threshold values above $34,300 per QALY gained. Results were similar for the payer perspective.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there is no official cost-effectiveness threshold in the U.S., results from the current study show that when compared with no prophylaxis, oseltamivir PEP for children has cost-effectiveness ratios similar to those of vaccines for preventing influenza.

Yearly influenza vaccinations: a double-edged sword?

Yearly vaccination against seasonal influenza viruses is recommended for certain individuals at high risk of complications associated with influenza. It has been recommended in some countries, including the USA, that all children aged 6-59 months are vaccinated against seasonal influenza. However, it has been shown-mainly in animals-that infection with influenza A viruses can induce protective immunity to influenza A viruses of other unrelated subtypes. This so-called heterosubtypic immunity does not provide full protection, but can limit virus replication and reduce morbidity and mortality of the host. This type of immunity might be relevant to human beings when a new subtype of influenza A virus is introduced into the population, such as the new influenza A H1N1 virus responsible for the present influenza pandemic and the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses that are causing an ever increasing number of human infections with high mortality rates. Preventing infection with seasonal influenza viruses by vaccination might prevent the induction of heterosubtypic immunity to pandemic strains, which might be a disadvantage to immunologically naive people-eg, infants.

Vaccination against human influenza A/H3N2 virus prevents the induction of heterosubtypic immunity against lethal infection with avian influenza A/H5N1 virus

Annual vaccination against seasonal influenza viruses is recommended for certain individuals that have a high risk for complications resulting from infection with these viruses. Recently it was recommended in a number of countries including the USA to vaccinate all healthy children between 6 and 59 months of age as well. However, vaccination of immunologically naïve subjects against seasonal influenza may prevent the induction of heterosubtypic immunity against potentially pandemic strains of an alternative subtype, otherwise induced by infection with the seasonal strains. Here we show in a mouse model that the induction of protective heterosubtypic immunity by infection with a human A/H3N2 influenza virus is prevented by effective vaccination against the A/H3N2 strain. Consequently, vaccinated mice were no longer protected against a lethal infection with an avian A/H5N1 influenza virus. As a result H3N2-vaccinated mice continued to loose body weight after A/H5N1 infection, had 100-fold higher lung virus titers on day 7 post infection and more severe histopathological changes than mice that were not protected by vaccination against A/H3N2 influenza. The lack of protection correlated with reduced virus-specific CD8+ T cell responses after A/H5N1 virus challenge infection. These findings may have implications for the general recommendation to vaccinate all healthy children against seasonal influenza in the light of the current pandemic threat caused by highly pathogenic avian A/H5N1 influenza viruses.