Prioritization of risk groups for influenza vaccination in resource limited settings - A case study from South Africa

Cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in WHO-defined high-risk populations in Bangladesh

Background

Bangladesh carries a substantial health and economic burden of seasonal influenza, particularly among the World Health Organization (WHO)-defined high-risk populations. We implemented a modelling study to determine the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in each of five high-risk groups (pregnant women, children under five years of age, adults with underlying health conditions, older adults (≥60 years), and healthcare personnel) to inform policy decisions on risk group prioritisation for influenza vaccination in Bangladesh.

Methods

We implemented a Markov decision-analytic model to estimate the impact of influenza vaccination for each target risk group. We obtained model inputs from hospital-based influenza surveillance data, unpublished surveys, and published literature (preferentially from studies in Bangladesh, followed by regional and global ones). We used quality-adjusted life years (QALY) as the health outcome of interest. We also estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each risk group by comparing the costs and QALY of vaccinating compared to not vaccinating each group, where the ICER represents the additional cost needed to achieve one year of additional QALY from a given intervention. We considered a willingness-to-pay threshold (ICER) of less than one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as highly cost-effective and of one to three times GDP per capita as cost-effective (per WHO standard). For Bangladesh, this threshold ranges between USD 2462 and USD 7386.

Results

The estimated ICERs were USD -99, USD -87, USD -4, USD 792, and USD 229 per QALY gained for healthcare personnel, older adults (≥60), children aged less than five years, adults with comorbid conditions, and pregnant women, respectively. For all risk groups, ICERs were below the WHO willingness-to-pay threshold for Bangladesh. Vaccinating pregnant women and adults with comorbid conditions was highly cost-effective per additional life year gained, while vaccinating healthcare personnel, older adults (≥60), and children under five years were cost-saving per additional life year gained.

Conclusions

Influenza vaccination to all target risk groups in Bangladesh would be either cost-saving or cost-effective, per WHO guidelines of GDP-based thresholds.

Estimating averted illnesses from influenza vaccination for children and pregnant women - El Salvador, Panama, and Peru, 2011-2018

BACKGROUND

Estimating the burden of disease averted by vaccination can assist policymakers to implement, adjust, and communicate the value of vaccination programs. Demonstrating the use of a newly available modeling tool, we estimated the burden of influenza illnesses averted by seasonal influenza vaccination in El Salvador, Panama, and Peru during 2011-2017 among two influenza vaccine target populations: children aged 6-23 months and pregnant women.

METHODS

We derived model inputs, including incidence, vaccine coverage, vaccine effectiveness, and multipliers from publicly available country-level influenza surveillance data and cohort studies. We also estimated changes in illnesses averted when countries' vaccine coverage was achieved using four different vaccine deployment strategies.

RESULTS

Among children aged 6-23 months, influenza vaccination averted an estimated cumulative 2,161 hospitalizations, 81,907 medically-attended illnesses, and 126,987 overall illnesses during the study period, with a prevented fraction ranging from 0.3 % to 12.5 %. Among pregnant women, influenza vaccination averted an estimated cumulative 173 hospitalizations, 6,122 medically attended illnesses, and 16,412 overall illnesses, with a prevented fraction ranging from 0.2 % to 10.9 %. Compared to an influenza vaccine campaign with equal vaccine distribution during March-June, scenarios in which total cumulative coverage was achieved in March and April consistently resulted in the greatest increase in averted illness (23 %-3,129 % increase among young children and 22 %-3,260 % increase among pregnant women).

DISCUSSION

Influenza vaccination campaigns in El Salvador, Panama, and Peru conducted between 2011 and 2018 prevented hundreds to thousands of influenza-associated hospitalizations and illnesses in young children and pregnant women. Existing vaccination programs could prevent additional illnesses, using the same number of vaccines, by achieving the highest possible coverage within the first two months of an influenza vaccine campaign.

Does the South African government have a duty to fund influenza vaccination of adults 65 years and older?

In this paper, we draw on the thinking about solidarity, reciprocity and distributive justice grounded in Afro-communitarian ethics from the Global South to argue for institutions, particularly the South African (SA) government, have a prima facie duty to foster influenza vaccine uptake for adults 65 years and older. Although we focus specifically on the South African government to defend our position, we believe that our argument extends to all governments. Notably, these duties are that the SA government ought to make influenza vaccines freely available for the older adult in both the public and private health facilities, provided financial allocation and their extant relationships allow for this. Further, the SA government has a duty to improve influenza vaccine procurement and availability in the country, preferably through increasing manufacturing capabilities. This paper is intrinsically valuable to promote epistemic justice, thereby contributing toward the decolonization of the global healthcare system. Moreover, this project has social significance in contributing to mitigation efforts against future public health challenges associated with population aging in resource-limited developing African nations, wherein the impact of population transition will be felt most.

Acceptability, cost-effectiveness, and capacity of a facility-based seasonal influenza vaccination among high-risk groups: a study protocol in selected tertiary care hospitals of Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

In Bangladesh, seasonal influenza imposes considerable disease and economic burden, especially for those at high-risk of severe disease. The most successful approach for influenza prevention is the administration of a vaccine. Many poor and middle-income nations, including Bangladesh, do not have a national strategy or program in place for seasonal influenza vaccines, despite the World Health Organization's (WHO) advice to prioritize high-risk populations. Additionally, there is a scarcity of substantial data on the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in these countries. The aim of our study is to determine acceptability, health beliefs, barriers, and intention of receiving influenza vaccine among high-risk populations, assess the cost-effectiveness of implementing a facility-based seasonal influenza vaccination programme, and investigate the required capacity for a potential seasonal influenza vaccination programme.

METHODS

We will undertake this study following STROBE guidelines. We will conduct the study in inpatient and outpatient departments of three selected tertiary-level hospitals leveraging the ongoing hospital-based influenza surveillance (HBIS) platform. The study population will include the WHO-defined four high-risk groups excluding healthcare workers: children six months to eight years, pregnant women, elderly ≥ 60 years, and adults with chronic diseases. We will collect quantitative data on participants' acceptability, health beliefs, barriers, and vaccination intentions using the health belief model (HBM) from patients meeting the criteria for high-risk populations attending two public tertiary-level hospitals. In one of the two public tertiary-level hospitals, we will arrange an influenza vaccination campaign before the influenza season, where the vaccine will be offered free of cost to high-risk patients, and in the second hospital, vaccination will not be offered. Both the vaccinated and unvaccinated participants will then be followed-up once a month for one year to record any influenza-like illness, hospitalization, and death. Additional data for objective two will be collected from patients with symptoms of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) at one public and one private hospital to determine both direct and indirect costs associated with influenza illness. We will estimate the required number of influenza vaccines, safe injections, and total storage volume utilizing secondary data. We will use a deterministic Markov decision-analytic model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of facility-based influenza vaccination in Bangladesh.

DISCUSSION

The results of this study will enable the National Immunization Technical Advisory Group and the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare of Bangladesh to decide what steps to take to develop and implement an influenza vaccination strategy targeting high-risk populations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The Clinicaltrials.gov registration number is NCT05996549. The registration for the protocol version 2.0 took place in August 2023, with the initial participant being enrolled in March 2022.

Maternal vaccination: A narrative review

Background

Vaccinations in general are considered to be one of the greatest achievements in medicine, saving millions of lives globally.

Aim

This narrative review highlights issues related to vaccination in pregnancy and provides information on those vaccines registered for use in pregnancy.

Method

Published articles on vaccinations in pregnancy are included in this review. The search engines used included PubMed, Medline, Google Scholar, and ScienceDirect.

Results

Vaccinations during pregnancy are more likely to be administered in high income countries (HICs) compared to low-income countries (LICs) due to easier access to healthcare services and better communicable disease awareness. Maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality rates associated with infectious diseases are higher in LICs with access to maternal care services, infrastructure and hospital equipment lacking in these settings.

Conclusion

Suitable vaccinations are recommended for use in pregnancy to prevent harm to women, their foetuses and newborns from some communicable diseases, and they have resulted in declines in maternal and infant morbidity and mortality. Furthermore, this review has shown that vaccination during pregnancy is not only safe for both the woman and her foetus but also effective. Therefore, health professionals and national governments should strongly consider approved vaccinations prior to or during pregnancy.

Contribution

This review provides insight on the necessity of vaccination during pregnancy. In addition, it urges health professionals to inform patients of the importance of regular antenatal visits, and to receive the required vaccinations for a better health outcome.

Costs of seasonal influenza vaccination in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Influenza accounts for a substantial number of deaths and hospitalisations annually in South Africa. To address this disease burden, the South African National Department of Health introduced a trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination programme in 2010.

METHODS

We adapted and populated the WHO Seasonal Influenza Immunization Costing Tool (WHO SIICT) with country-specific data to estimate the cost of the influenza vaccination programme in South Africa. Data were obtained through key-informant interviews at different levels of the health system and through a review of existing secondary data sources. Costs were estimated from a public provider perspective and expressed in 2018 prices. We conducted scenario analyses to assess the impact of different levels of programme expansion and the use of quadrivalent vaccines on total programme costs.

RESULTS

Total financial and economic costs were estimated at approximately USD 2.93 million and USD 7.91 million, respectively, while financial and economic cost per person immunised was estimated at USD 3.29 and USD 8.88, respectively. Expanding the programme by 5% and 10% increased economic cost per person immunised to USD 9.36 and USD 9.52 in the two scenarios, respectively. Finally, replacing trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) with quadrivalent vaccine increased financial and economic costs to USD 4.89 and USD 10.48 per person immunised, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We adapted the WHO SIICT and provide estimates of the total costs of the seasonal influenza vaccination programme in South Africa. These estimates provide a basis for planning future programme expansion and may serve as inputs for cost-effectiveness analyses of seasonal influenza vaccination programmes.

Willingness to accept COVID-19 vaccination among people living with HIV in a high HIV prevalence community

Background

People living with HIV (PLWH) may have a poorer prognosis with COVID-19 infection and are an important population for COVID-19 vaccination. We assessed the willingness and reasons for COVID-19 vaccine acceptance or hesitancy among PLWH in South Africa.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study consisting of telephone interviews with a randomly selected subset of participants enrolled in a prospective observational cohort study evaluating a decentralized antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery program in South Africa. Questions assessed willingness to accept a future COVID-19 vaccine, concerns regarding COVID-19 vaccination, and overall vaccine confidence. Interviews were conducted between September 2020 and January 2021. We evaluated participant demographics, sources of COVID-19 information, stigma and medical mistrust, uptake of non-pharmaceutical interventions, and socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic as potential covariates of willingness to accept vaccination.

Results

We completed interviews with 213 participants; 153 (72%) were female, median age 35y, and 100 (47%) had completed secondary school. Among the participants, 121 (57%) were willing to accept future vaccination, 46 (22%) were unsure, and 45 (21%) stated they did not intend to be vaccinated. Fear of side effects, reported by 42 (20%), was the most common concern about COVID-19 vaccination. Older age was associated with willingness to accept vaccination (aOR 1.75 for every 10-year increase in age, 95% CI 1.10–2.78, p = 0.02), while higher medical mistrust related to COVID-19 (aOR 0.21, 95% CI 0.093–0.45, p < 0.001) and use of social media for COVID-19 information (aOR 0.30, 95% CI 0.11–0.84, p = 0.02) were associated with lower willingness to accept vaccination.

Conclusions

In this cohort of PLWH in South Africa, over half were willing to accept COVID-19 vaccination, although a substantial proportion remained unsure or were not willing to be vaccinated. Public health messaging should emphasize the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccination and address misinformation and medical mistrust among PLWH. Ongoing efforts to ensure access to COVID-19 vaccines for vulnerable populations are crucial.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13623-w.

Influenza Vaccination Results in Differential Hemagglutinin Stalk-Specific Fc-Mediated Functions in Individuals Living With or Without HIV

Influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) stalk-specific antibodies have been shown to potently induce Fc-mediated effector functions which are important in protection from disease. In placebo-controlled maternal influenza (MatFlu) vaccination trials of pregnant women living with or without HIV, reduced risk of influenza illness was associated with high HA stalk antibody titers following trivalent inactivated vaccination (TIV). However, the mechanisms of immunity conferred by the HA stalk antibodies were not well understood. Here, we investigated HA stalk-specific Fc effector functions including antibody-dependent cellular phagocytosis (ADCP), antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC), antibody-dependent complement deposition (ADCD), and FcγRIIa and FcγRIIIa binding in response to seasonal influenza vaccination. These were measured pre- and 1-month post-vaccination in 141 HIV-uninfected women (67 TIV and 74 placebo recipients) and 119 women living with HIV (WLWH; 66 TIV and 53 placebo recipients). In contrast to HIV-uninfected women, where HA stalk-specific ADCP and FcγRIIa binding were significantly boosted, WLWH showed no increase in response to vaccination. HA stalk-specific ADCC potential and FcγRIIIa binding were not boosted regardless of HIV status but were higher in WLWH compared with HIV-uninfected women prior to vaccination. HA stalk-specific ADCD was significantly increased by vaccination in all women, but was significantly lower in the WLWH both pre- and post- vaccination. Co-ordination between HA stalk-specific ADCP and ADCD in WLWH was improved by vaccination. Fc polyfunctionality was enhanced by vaccination in HIV-uninfected women and driven by the HA stalk antibody titers. However, in the WLWH, higher pre-vaccination Fc polyfunctionality was maintained post-vaccination but was decoupled from titer. Overall, we showed differential regulation of Fc effector HA stalk responses, suggesting that HIV infection results in unique humoral immunity in response to influenza vaccination, with relevance for future strategies that aim to target the HA stalk in this population.

Multi-period vaccine allocation model in a pandemic: A case study of COVID-19 in Australia

While the swift development and production of a COVID-19 vaccine has been a remarkable success, it is equally crucial to ensure that the vaccine is allocated and distributed in a timely and efficient manner. Prior research on pandemic supply chain has not fully incorporated the underlying factors and constraints in designing a vaccine allocation model. This study proposes an innovative vaccine allocation model to contain the spread of infectious diseases incorporating key contributing factors to the risk of uninoculated people including susceptibility rate and exposure risk. Analyses of the data collected from the state of Victoria in Australia show that a vaccine allocation model can deliver a superior performance in minimizing the risk of unvaccinated people when a multi-period approach is employed and augmenting operational mechanisms including transshipment between medical centers, capacity sharing, and mobile units being integrated into the vaccine allocation model.

A decision support system for prioritised COVID-19 two-dosage vaccination allocation and distribution

This study proposes a decision support system (DSS) that integrates GIS, analytics, and simulation methods to help develop a priority-based distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in a large urban setting. The methodology applies novel hierarchical heuristic-simulation procedures to create a holistic algorithm for prioritising the process of demand allocation and optimising vaccine distribution. The Melbourne metropolitan area in Australia with a population of over five million is used as a case study. Three vaccine supply scenarios, namely limited, excessive, and disruption, were formulated to operationalise a two-dose vaccination program. Vaccine distribution with hard constraints were simulated and then further validated with sensitivity analyses. The results show that vaccines can be prioritised to society's most vulnerable segments and distributed using the current logistics network with 10 vehicles. Compared with other vaccine distribution plans with no prioritisation, such as equal allocation of vaccines to local government areas based on population size or one on a first-come-first-serve basis, the plans generated by the proposed DSS ensure prioritised vaccination of the most needed and vulnerable population. The aim is to curb the spread of the infection and reduce mortality rate more effectively. They also achieve vaccination of the entire population with less logistical resources required. As such, this study contributes to knowledge and practice in pandemic vaccine distribution and enables governments to make real-time decisions and adjustments in daily distribution plans. In this way any unforeseen disruptions in the vaccine supply chain can be coped with.

An evaluation of an influenza vaccination campaign targeting pregnant women in 27 clinics in two provinces of South Africa, 2015 - 2018

Introduction

Despite prioritization, routine antenatal influenza vaccine coverage is < 16% in South Africa. We aimed to describe maternal influenza vaccine coverage in 27 antenatal clinics (ANCs) in Gauteng and Western Cape (WC) Provinces, where in collaboration with the Department of Health (DoH), we augmented the annual influenza vaccination programme among pregnant women.

Methods

From 2015 through 2018, 40,230 additional doses of influenza vaccine were added to the available stock and administered as part of routine antenatal care. Educational talks were given daily and data were collected on women attending ANCs. We compared characteristics of vaccinated and unvaccinated women using multivariable logistic regression.

Results

We screened 62,979 pregnant women during the period when Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccines were available (27,068 in Gauteng and 35,911 in WC). Vaccine coverage at the targeted clinics was 78.7% (49,355/62682), although pregnant women in WC were more likely to be vaccinated compared to those in the Gauteng (Odds ratio (OR) =3.7 p < 0.001). Women aged 25—29 and > 35 years were less likely to be vaccinated than women aged 18—24 years (OR = 0.9 p = 0.053; OR = 0.9 p < 0.001). HIV positive status was not associated with vaccination (OR = 1.0 p = 0.266). Reasons for not vaccinating included: vaccine stock-outs where ANCs depleted available stock of vaccines and/or were awaiting delivery of vaccines (54.6%, 6949/12723), refusal/indecision (25.8%, 3285), and current illness that contraindicated vaccination (19.6%, 2489).

Conclusion

Antenatal vaccination uptake was likely improved by the increased vaccine supply and vaccine education offered during our campaign.

Asymptomatic transmission and high community burden of seasonal influenza in an urban and a rural community in South Africa, 2017-18 (PHIRST): a population cohort study

BACKGROUND

Data on influenza community burden and transmission are important to plan interventions especially in resource-limited settings. However, data are limited, particularly from low-income and middle-income countries. We aimed to evaluate the community burden and transmission of influenza in a rural and an urban setting in South Africa.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study approximately 50 households were selected sequentially from both a rural setting (Agincourt, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa; with a health and sociodemographic surveillance system) and an urban setting (Klerksdorp, Northwest Province, South Africa; using global positioning system data), enrolled, and followed up for 10 months in 2017 and 2018. Different households were enrolled in each year. Households of more than two individuals in which 80% or more of the occupants agreed to participate were included in the study. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected twice per week from participating household members irrespective of symptoms and tested for influenza using real-time RT-PCR. The primary outcome was the incidence of influenza infection, defined as the number of real-time RT-PCR-positive episodes divided by the person-time under observation. Household cumulative infection risk (HCIR) was defined as the number of subsequent infections within a household following influenza introduction.

FINDINGS

81 430 nasopharyngeal samples were collected from 1116 participants in 225 households (follow-up rate 88%). 917 (1%) tested positive for influenza; 178 (79%) of 225 households had one or more influenza-positive individual. The incidence of influenza infection was 43·6 (95% CI 39·8-47·7) per 100 person-seasons. 69 (17%) of 408 individuals who had one influenza infection had a repeat influenza infection during the same season. The incidence (67·4 per 100 person-seasons) and proportion with repeat infections (22 [23%] of 97 children) were highest in children younger than 5 years and decreased with increasing age (p<0·0001). Overall, 268 (56%) of 478 infections were symptomatic and 66 (14%) of 478 infections were medically attended. The overall HCIR was 10% (109 of 1088 exposed household members infected [95% CI 9-13%). Transmission (HCIR) from index cases was highest in participants aged 1-4 years (16%; 40 of 252 exposed household members) and individuals with two or more symptoms (17%; 68 of 396 exposed household members). Individuals with asymptomatic influenza transmitted infection to 29 (6%) of 509 household contacts. HIV infection, affecting 167 (16%) of 1075 individuals, was not associated with increased incidence or HCIR.

INTERPRETATION

Approximately half of influenza infections were symptomatic, with asymptomatic individuals transmitting influenza to 6% of household contacts. This suggests that strategies, such as quarantine and isolation, might be ineffective to control influenza. Vaccination of children, with the aim of reducing influenza transmission might be effective in African settings given the young population and high influenza burden.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

A Retrospective observational cohort study of the effect of antenatal influenza vaccination on birth outcomes in Cape Town, South Africa, 2015-2016

Background

There are conflicting data concerning the impact of antenatal influenza vaccination on birth outcomes including low birthweight (LBW), preterm birth, small for gestational age (SGA), and stillbirth.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study of infants born to women residing in Mitchells Plain, Cape Town. Infants were born at 4 health facilities during May 28 – December 31, 2015 and April 15 – December 31, 2016. We performed crude and multivariable logistic regression, propensity score (PS) matching logistic regression, and inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) regression to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) against LBW, preterm birth, SGA, and stillbirth adjusting for measured confounders.

Results

Maternal vaccination status, antenatal history, and ≥1 birth outcome(s) were available for 4084/5333 (76.6%) pregnancies, 2109 (51.6%) vaccinated, and 1975 (48.4%) unvaccinated. The proportion LBW was lower in vaccinated (6.9%) vs. unvaccinated (12.5%) in multivariable [VE 0.27 (95% CI 0.07‐0.42)], PS [VE 0.30 (95% CI 0.09‐0.51)], and IPTW [VE 0.24 (95% CI 0.04‐0.45)]. Preterm birth was less frequent in vaccinated (8.6%) than unvaccinated (16.4%) in multivariable [VE 0.26 (0.09‐0.40)], PS [VE 0.25 (95% CI 0.09‐0.41)], and IPTW [VE 0.34 (95% CI 0.18‐0.51)]. The proportion SGA was lower in vaccinated (6.0%) than unvaccinated (8.8%) but not in adjusted models. There were few stillbirths in our study population, 30/4084 (0.7%).

Conclusions

Using multiple analytic approaches, we found that influenza vaccination was associated with lower prevalence of LBW (24‐30%) and preterm birth (25‐34%) in Cape Town during 2015‐2016.

The epidemiology of seasonal influenza after the 2009 influenza pandemic in Africa: a systematic review

Background

Influenza infection is a serious public health problem that causes an estimated 3 to 5 million cases and 250,000 deaths worldwide every year. The epidemiology of influenza is well-documented in high- and middle-income countries, however minimal effort had been made to understand the epidemiology, burden and seasonality of influenza in Africa. This study aims to assess the state of knowledge of seasonal influenza epidemiology in Africa and identify potential data gaps for policy formulation following the 2009 pandemic.

Method

We reviewed articles from Africa published into four databases namely: MEDLINE (PubMed), Google Scholar, Cochrane Library and Scientific Research Publishing from 2010 to 2019.

Results

We screened titles and abstracts of 2070 studies of which 311 were selected for full content evaluation and 199 studies were considered. Selected articles varied substantially on the basis of the topics they addressed covering the field of influenza surveillance (n=80); influenza risk factors and co-morbidities (n=15); influenza burden (n=37); influenza vaccination (n=40); influenza and other respiratory pathogens (n=22) and influenza diagnosis (n=5).

Conclusion

Significant progress has been made since the last pandemic in understanding the influenza epidemiology in Africa. However, efforts still remain for most countries to have sufficient data to allow countries to prioritize strategies for influenza prevention and control.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of South Africa's seasonal influenza vaccination programme

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza imposes a significant health and economic burden in South Africa, particularly in populations vulnerable to severe consequences of influenza. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of South Africa's seasonal influenza vaccination strategy, which involves vaccinating vulnerable populations with trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) during routine facility visits. Vulnerable populations included in our analysis are persons aged ≥ 65 years; pregnant women; persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), persons of any age with underlying medical conditions (UMC) and children aged 6-59 months.

METHOD

We employed the World Health Organisation's (WHO) Cost Effectiveness Tool for Seasonal Influenza Vaccination (CETSIV), a decision tree model, to evaluate the 2018 seasonal influenza vaccination campaign from a public healthcare provider and societal perspective. CETSIV was populated with existing country-specific demographic, epidemiologic and coverage data to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) by comparing costs and benefits of the influenza vaccination programme to no vaccination.

RESULTS

The highest number of clinical events (influenza cases, outpatient visits, hospitalisation and deaths) were averted in PLWHA and persons with other UMCs. Using a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$ 3400 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), our findings suggest that the vaccination programme is cost-effective for all vulnerable populations except for children aged 6-59 months. ICERs ranged from ~US$ 1 750 /QALY in PLWHA to ~US$ 7500/QALY in children. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the vaccination programme was cost-effective in pregnant women, PLWHA, persons with UMCs and persons aged ≥65 years in >80% of simulations. These findings were robust to changes in many model inputs but were most sensitive to uncertainty in estimates of influenza-associated illness burden.

CONCLUSION

South Africa's seasonal influenza vaccination strategy of opportunistically targeting vulnerable populations during routine visits is cost-effective. A budget impact analysis will be useful for supporting future expansions of the programme.

Influenza disease burden among potential target risk groups for immunization in South Africa, 2013-2015

BACKGROUND

Data on influenza burden in risk groups for severe influenza are important to guide targeted influenza immunization, especially in resource limited settings. However, this information is limited overall and in particular in low- and middle-income countries. We sought to assess the mean annual national burden of medically and non-medically attended influenza-associated mild, severe-non-fatal and fatal illness among potential target groups for influenza immunization in South Africa during 2013-2015.

METHODS

We used published mean national annual estimates of mild, severe-non-fatal, and fatal influenza-associated illness in South Africa during 2013-2015 and estimated the number of such illnesses occurring among the following risk groups: (i) children aged 6-59 months; (ii) individuals aged 5-64 years with HIV, and/or pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), and/or selected underlying medical conditions (UMC); (iii) pregnant women; and (iv) individuals aged ≥65 years. We also estimated the number of individuals among the same risk groups in the population.

RESULTS

During 2013-2015, individuals in the selected risk groups accounted for 45.3% (24,569,328/54,086,144) of the population and 43.5% (4,614,763/10,598,138), 86.8% (111,245/128,173) and 94.5% (10,903/11,536) of the mean annual estimated number of influenza-associated mild, severe-non-fatal and fatal illness episodes, respectively. The rates of influenza-associated illness were highest in children aged 6-59 months (23,983 per 100,000 population) for mild illness, in pregnant women (930 per 100,000 population) for severe-non-fatal illness and in individuals aged ≥65 years (138 per 100,000 population) for fatal illness.

CONCLUSION

Influenza immunization of the selected risk groups has the potential to prevent a substantial number of influenza-associated severe illness. Nonetheless, because of the high number of individuals at risk, South Africa, due to financial resources constrains, may need to further prioritize interventions among risk populations. Cost-burden and cost-effectiveness estimates may assist with further prioritization.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of antenatal influenza vaccination among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected pregnant women in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Pregnant women and infants are at increased risk of severe disease from influenza. Antenatal influenza vaccination is safe and can reduce the risk of illness for women and their infants. We evaluated for South Africa the health effects of antenatal influenza vaccination among pregnant women and their infants aged <6 months old and assessed its cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

We constructed a decision tree model to simulate the population of pregnant women and infants aged <6 months in South Africa using TreeAge Pro Suite 2015. The model evaluated the change in societal costs and outcomes associated with a vaccination campaign that prioritized HIV-infected over HIV-uninfected pregnant women compared with no vaccination. We also examined the impacts of a campaign without prioritization. Upper and lower 90% uncertainty intervals (90% UI) were generated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis on 10000 Monte Carlo simulations. The cost-effectiveness threshold was set to the 2015 per capita gross domestic product of South Africa, US$5724.

RESULTS

Antenatal vaccination with prioritization averted 9070 (90% UI: 7407-11217) total cases of influenza among pregnant women and infants, including 411 (90% UI: 305-546) hospitalizations and 30 (90% UI: 22-40) deaths. This corresponds to an averted fraction of 13.5% (90% UI: 9.0-20.5%). Vaccinating without prioritization averted 7801 (90% UI: 6465-9527) cases of influenza, including 335 (90% UI: 254-440) hospitalizations and 24 (90% UI: 18-31) deaths. This corresponds to an averted fraction of 11.6% (90% UI: 7.8-17.4%). Vaccinating the cohort of pregnant women with prioritization had societal cost of $4689 (90% UI: $3128-$7294) per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained while vaccinating without prioritization had a cost of $5924 (90% UI: $3992-$9056) per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Antenatal influenza vaccination campaigns in South Africa would reduce the impact of influenza and could be cost-effective.