Magnitudes of biomarker reductions in response to controlled reductions in cigarettes smoked per day: a one-week clinical confinement study

Impact of coronavirus pandemic on stock index: A polynomial regression with time delay

Motivation

Under contemporary market conditions in China, the stock index has been volatile and highly reflect trends in the coronavirus pandemic, but rare scientific research has been conducted to model the possible nonlinear relations between the two indicators. Added, on the advent that covid-related news in one time period impacts the stock market in another period, time delay can be an equally good predictor of the stock index but rarely investigated.

Objectives

To contribute to filling the gaps identified in existing research, this study models relationship between the stock market index and coronavirus pandemic by leveraging volatility in the stock market and covid data through time delay and best degree in a polynomial environment. The resultant optimal time delay and best degree model is used to derive a high-accuracy prediction of stock market index.

Novelty

In line with the possible relations, the novelty of this study is that it proposes, validates and implements polynomial regression with time delay to model nonlinear relationship between the stock index and covid.

Methods

This study utilizes high-frequency data from January 2020 to the first week of July 2022 to model the nonlinear relationship between the stock index, new covid cases and time delay under polynomial regression environment.

Findings

The empirical results show that time delay and new covid cases, when modelled in a polynomial environment with optimal degree and delay, do present better representation of the nonlinear relationship such predictors have with stock index for China. Relative to results from the polynomial regression without delay, the empirical evidence from the model with delay show that an optimal time delay of 17 weeks makes it possible to predict the stock index at high accuracy and record improvements of 16-fold or higher. The representative delay model is used to project for up to 17 weeks for future trends in the stock index.

Implication

The implication of the findings herein is that the prowess of the time delay polynomial regression is heavily dependent on instability in covid-related time trends and that researchers and decision-makers should consider modeling to cover for the unsteadiness in coronavirus cases to achieve better results.

Changes in Biomarkers of Exposure and Potential Harm in Smokers Switched to Vuse Vibe or Vuse Ciro Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems

Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) have the potential to provide nicotine to tobacco consumers while reducing exposure to combustion-related toxicants. Here, we report changes in biomarkers of exposure (BoE) and biomarkers of potential harm (BoPH) in smokers who completely switched to Vuse Vibe and Vuse Ciro ENDS products, or to smoking abstinence in a randomized, controlled clinical study. Thirteen BoE (12 urinary and one blood) that indicate exposure to harmful and potentially harmful toxicants (HPHCs) were evaluated at baseline on day 5. Urinary BoPH linked to oxidative stress, platelet activation, and inflammation were also assessed at baseline, and on day 5 and day 7. Nicotine exposure was lower in Vuse Vibe and Vuse Ciro groups compared to baseline values. Urinary non-nicotine BoE decreased significantly (52.3-96.7%) in the Vuse ENDS groups, and the reductions were similar in magnitude to those observed in the abstinence group. Blood carboxyhemoglobin decreased 52.8-55.0% in all study groups. Decreases (10-50%) in BoPH were observed in all study groups. Thus, smokers who switch exclusively to Vuse Vibe or Vuse Ciro products or completely abstain from smoking are exposed to substantially lower levels of HPHCs, and experience improvements in BoPH of oxidative stress and inflammation pathways.

Biomarkers of Exposure and Potential Harm in Two Weeks of Smoking Abstinence: Changes in Biomarkers of Platelet Function, Oxidative Stress, and Inflammation

: Chronic cigarette smoking is a major risk factor for many serious diseases. While complete cessation of smoking is the best option to reduce harm from smoking, adverse impacts of smoking on health could persist for several years after cessation. Therefore, Biomarkers of Potential Harm (BoPH) are useful in interim evaluations of the beneficial effects of smoking cessation or switching to potentially lower-risk tobacco products. A 14-day smoking abstinence study was conducted under clinical confinement conditions and enrolled 70 subjects into younger (24–34 years, n = 33) and older (35–60 years, n = 37) age cohorts. Biomarkers of Exposure (BoE), which indicate exposure to nicotine and other toxicants, were measured at baseline, 7 and 14 days. Several BoPH including previously identified eicosanoids (leukotriene 4 (LTE4) and 2,3-dinor thromboxane 2 (2,3-d-TXB2) and others were evaluated. Significant declines in BoE, LTE4, 2,3-d-TXB2, neutrophils, WBC and select RBC, and arterial blood gas parameters were observed in both age cohorts at Days 7 and 14 compared to baseline, while other BoPH (e.g., FeNO) showed age-related effects. Rapid and reproducible reductions in LTE4, 2,3-d-TXB2 WBC, and neutrophil counts were consistently detected following smoking abstinence, indicating the value of these markers as useful BoPH.

Part three: a randomized study to assess biomarker changes in cigarette smokers switched to Vuse Solo or Abstinence

Biomarkers of exposure (BoE) can help evaluate exposure to combustion-related, tobacco-specific toxicants after smokers switch from cigarettes to potentially less-harmful products like electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS). This paper reports data for one (Vuse Solo Original) of three products evaluated in a randomized, controlled, confinement study of BoE in smokers switched to ENDS. Subjects smoked their usual brand cigarette ad libitum for two days, then were randomized to one of three ENDS for a 7-day ad libitum use period, or to smoking abstinence. Thirteen BoE were assessed at baseline and Day 5, and percent change in mean values for each BoE was calculated. Biomarkers of potential harm (BoPH) linked to oxidative stress, platelet activation, and inflammation were also assessed. Levels decreased among subjects randomized to Vuse Solo versus Abstinence, respectively, for the following BoE: 42-96% versus 52-97% (non-nicotine constituents); 51% versus 55% (blood carboxyhemoglobin); and 29% versus 96% (nicotine exposure). Significant decreases were observed in three BoPH: leukotriene E4, 11-dehydro-thromboxane B2, and 2,3-dinor thromboxane B2 on Day 7 in the Vuse Solo and Abstinence groups. These findings show that ENDS use results in substantially reduced exposure to toxicants compared to smoking, which may lead to reduced biological effects.

Assessment of the Exposure to Aromatic Amines in Users of Various Tobacco/Nicotine Products

Aromatic amines such as ortho-toluidine (o-Tol), 2-aminonaphthalene (2-AN), and 4-aminobiphenyl (4-ABP) are human bladder carcinogens and occur at various workplaces, in ambient air, in food products, as well as in tobacco smoke. In a clinical study comprising a period of 74 h under confinement, we investigated the exposure to these three aromatic amines as well as to 3-aminobiphenyl (3-ABP) by measuring them in urine of habitual users of combustible cigarettes (CCs), electronic cigarettes (ECs), heated tobacco products (HTPs), oral tobacco (OT), and nicotine replacement therapy products (NRTs). Non-users (NU) of any tobacco/nicotine products served as (negative) control group. Smokers (CC) exhibited the highest levels for all four aromatic amines measured, significantly elevated compared to NU and non-CC users. Urinary levels in users of EC, HTP, NRT (mostly nicotine gum), and OT (mostly snus) were not significantly different from those in NU. Users of HTP showed slightly elevated urinary excretion levels of o-Tol, 3-ABP, and 4-ABP compared to some other non-CC groups. Dose markers such as daily consumption, urinary nicotine equivalents (Nequ), and plasma cotinine (CotP) were found to be consistently and significantly correlated with the excretion of aromatic amines for smokers (CC) only. Excretion levels of 3- and 4-ABP in smokers were significantly lower in the urine collected overnight compared to that collected during the day, which is just the opposite of what we observed for other biomarkers in this study. The possible reason for this observation is discussed. In conclusion, in contrast to smoking of CCs, the use of ECs, HTPs, nicotine gum, and oral tobacco was not observed to be associated with significant exposure to the aromatic amines o-Tol, 2-AN, 3-ABP, and 4-ABP. The observed slight increase in o-Tol, 3-ABP, and 4-ABP excretions in HTP users has to be verified in larger studies.

A Randomized, Controlled Study to Assess Biomarkers of Exposure in Adult Smokers Switching to Oral Nicotine Products

This open-label, randomized, controlled, in-clinic, 6-parallel-group study evaluated changes in biomarkers of exposure (BoEs) to select harmful and potentially harmful constituents in adult smokers (N = 213) not planning to quit smoking. Adult smokers were randomized to continue smoking (CS), reduce smoking by 50% and dual use oral tobacco-derived nicotine (OTDN) products (VERVE chews/discs), stop smoking and exclusively use discs or chews, or stop using all tobacco products (NT). The primary objective compared 24-hour urinary total 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol (NNAL; a biomarker for the carcinogen 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone) in dual and exclusive use of discs and chews to continue smoking and NT on day 7. NNAL levels on day 7 were significantly lower (P < .05) among dual and exclusive users of discs/chews compared to continue smoking; median percent reductions were ≈30% and ≈73%, respectively. NNAL levels were not significantly different between those who used discs/chews and the NT group. Many of the additional secondary biomarkers of exposure were significantly lower in dual users (10/19) and exclusive users of discs/chews (17/19) compared to the continue smoking group. Overall, reductions in secondary biomarkers of exposure were greater in exclusive users than dual users. The 24-hour urinary nicotine equivalents were significantly lower (P < .05) among exclusive users of discs/chews compared to continue smoking. The discs/chews appeared to be well tolerated. These results demonstrate that while switching completely to discs/chews substantially reduces exposure to select harmful and potentially harmful constituents, dual use with 50% reduction in cigarette consumption also reduces exposure. oral tobacco-derived nicotine products like discs/chews may present a harm reduction opportunity for adult smokers, particularly those not intending to quit smoking.

Reduced levels of biomarkers of exposure in smokers switching to the Carbon-Heated Tobacco Product 1.0: a controlled, randomized, open-label 5-day exposure trial

In addition to smoking cessation, for those who would otherwise continue to smoke, replacing cigarettes with less harmful alternatives can reduce the harms of smoking. Heating instead of burning tobacco reduces, or eliminates, the formation of harmful and potentially harmful constituents (HPHC) that are found in cigarette smoke. The Carbon-Heated Tobacco Product (CHTP), a heat-not-burn tobacco product, mimics the cigarette smoking ritual. This randomized, open-label, two-arm, parallel-group, short-term confinement study tested the hypothesis that the geometric means of the BoExp levels for subjects switching to CHTP 1.0 for 5 days are lower relative to those continuing to smoke cigarettes. Biomarkers of exposure (BoExp), including nicotine, urinary excretion of mutagenic constituents (Ames test), and cytochrome P450 (CYP) 1A2 activity, were measured in blood and/or 24-h urine samples during ad libitum product use. Nicotine exposure remained at similar levels in individuals using CHTP as in those continuing to smoke cigarettes. Switching to CHTP resulted in marked decreases in all other urinary BoExp (56–97%), carboxyhemoglobin (59%), urinary mutagenic constituents, and CYP1A2 activity compared with continued cigarette smoking. Our results provide evidence of decreased exposure to 15 selected HPHCs in smokers switching from cigarettes to exclusive CHTP use.

Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02503254; Date of first registration: 20/07/2015 https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02503254.

Study protocol Study protocol published at: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ProvidedDocs/54/NCT02503254/Prot_000.pdf.

Biomarkers of Tobacco Exposure Decrease After Smokers Switch to an E-Cigarette or Nicotine Gum

Introduction

The aerosol composition of electronic cigarettes (ECs) suggests that exposure to toxicants during use is greatly reduced compared to exposure from combustible cigarettes (CCs).

Methods

This randomized, parallel-group, clinical study enrolled smokers to switch to Vuse Solo (VS) Digital Vapor Cigarettes (Original or Menthol) or Nicorette 4 mg nicotine gum (NG) in a controlled setting. Subjects who smoked CCs ad libitum for 2 days during a baseline period were then randomized to ad libitum use of either VS or NG for 5 days. Biomarkers of 23 toxicants were measured in 24-hour urine samples and blood collected at baseline and following product switch.

Results

A total of 153 subjects completed the study. Total nicotine equivalents decreased in all groups, but higher levels were observed in the VS groups compared to the NG groups, with decreases of 38% and 60%–67%, respectively. All other biomarkers were significantly decreased in subjects switched to VS, and the magnitude of biomarker decreases was similar to subjects switched to NG. Decreases ranged from 30% to greater than 85% for constituents such as benzene and acrylonitrile.

Conclusions

These results indicate that exposure to toxicants when using VS is significantly reduced compared to CC smoking, and these reductions are similar to those observed with use of NG. Although statistically significantly decreased, nicotine exposure is maintained closer to CC smoking with VS use compared to NG use. This research suggests that use of VS exposes consumers to fewer and lower levels of smoke toxicants than CCs while still providing nicotine to the consumer.

Implications

This is the first study to report changes in nicotine delivery and biomarkers of tobacco exposure following a short-term product switch from CCs to either an EC or NG in a controlled environment. The study shows that nicotine exposure decreased in both groups but was maintained closer to CC smoking with the EC groups. Biomarkers of tobacco combustion decreased to similar levels in both EC and gum groups.

Comparison of Urinary Biomarkers of Exposure in Humans Using Electronic Cigarettes, Combustible Cigarettes, and Smokeless Tobacco

BACKGROUND

Cigarette smoking is associated with an increase in cardiovascular disease risk, attributable in part to reactive volatile organic chemicals (VOCs). However, little is known about the extent of VOC exposure due to the use of other tobacco products.

METHODS

We recruited 48 healthy, tobacco users in four groups: cigarette, smokeless tobacco, occasional users of first generation e-cigarette and e-cigarette menthol and 12 healthy nontobacco users. After abstaining for 48 h, tobacco users used an assigned product. Urine was collected at baseline followed by five collections over a 3-h period to measure urinary metabolites of VOCs, nicotine, and tobacco alkaloids.

RESULTS

Urinary levels of nicotine were ≃2-fold lower in occasional e-cigarette and smokeless tobacco users than in the cigarette smokers; cotinine and 3-hydroxycotinine levels were similar in all groups. Compared with nontobacco users, e-cigarette users had higher levels of urinary metabolites of xylene, cyanide, styrene, ethylbenzene, and benzene at baseline and elevated urinary levels of metabolites of xylene, N,N-dimethylformamide, and acrylonitrile after e-cigarette use. Metabolites of acrolein, crotonaldehyde, and 1,3-butadiene were significantly higher in smokers than in users of other products or nontobacco users. VOC metabolite levels in smokeless tobacco group were comparable to those found in nonusers with the exception of xylene metabolite-2-methylhippuric acid (2MHA), which was almost three fold higher than in nontobacco users.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking results in exposure to a range of VOCs at concentrations higher than those observed with other products, and first generation e-cigarette use is associated with elevated levels of N,N-dimethylformamide and xylene metabolites.

IMPLICATIONS

This study shows that occasional users of first generation e-cigarettes have lower levels of nicotine exposure than the users of combustible cigarettes. Compared with combustible cigarettes, e-cigarettes, and smokeless tobacco products deliver lower levels of most VOCs, with the exception of xylene, N,N-dimethylformamide, and acrylonitrile, whose metabolite levels were higher in the urine of e-cigarette users than nontobacco users. Absence of anatabine in the urine of e-cigarette users suggests that measuring urinary levels of this alkaloid may be useful in distinguishing between users of e-cigarettes and combustible cigarettes. However, these results have to be validated in a larger cohortcomprised of users of e-cigarettes of multiple brands.

Biological and Functional Changes in Healthy Adult Smokers Who Are Continuously Abstinent From Smoking for One Year: Protocol for a Prospective, Observational, Multicenter Cohort Study

Background

The harm of smoking results mainly from long-term exposure to harmful and potentially harmful constituents (HPHCs) generated by tobacco combustion. Smoking cessation (SC) engenders favorable changes of clinical signs, pathomechanisms, and metabolic processes that together could reduce the harm of smoking-related diseases to a relative risk level approximating that of never-smokers over time. In most SC studies, the main focus is on the quitting rate of the SC program being tested. As there is limited information in the literature on short to multiple long-term functional or biological changes following SC, more data on short to mid-term favorable impacts of SC are needed.

Objective

The overall aim of the study was to assess the reversibility of the harm related to smoking over 1 year of continuous smoking abstinence (SA). This has been verified by assessing a set of biomarkers of exposure to HPHCs and a set of biomarkers of effect indicative of multiple pathophysiological pathways underlying the development of smoking-related diseases.

Methods

This multiregional (United States, Japan, and Europe), multicenter (42 sites) cohort study consisting of a 1-year SA period in an ambulatory setting was conducted from May 2015 to May 2017. A total of 1184 male and female adult healthy smokers, willing to quit smoking, were enrolled in the study. Nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) was provided for up to 3 months upon the subject’s request. SC counseling and behavioral support were continuously provided. Biomarkers of exposure to HPHCs and biomarkers of effect were assessed in urine and blood at baseline, Month 3, Month 6, and Month 12. Cardiovascular biomarkers of effect included parameters reflecting inflammation (white blood cell), lipid metabolism (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol), endothelial function (soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1), platelet function (11-dehydrothromboxane B2), oxidative stress (8-epi-prostaglandin F2 alpha), and carbon monoxide exposure (carboxyhemoglobin). Respiratory biomarkers of effect included lung function parameters and cough symptoms. The biomarkers of effect to evaluate genotoxicity (total 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol) and xenobiotic metabolism (cytochrome P450 2A6 activity) were also assessed. Continuous SA was verified at each visit following the actual quit date using self-reporting and chemical verification. Safety assessments included adverse events and serious adverse events, body weight, vital signs, spirometry, electrocardiogram, clinical chemistry, hematology and urine analysis safety panel, physical examination, and concomitant medications.

Results

In total, 1184 subjects (50.1% male) were enrolled; 30% of them quit smoking successfully for 1 year. Data analyses of the study results are ongoing and will be published after study completion.

Conclusions

This study provides insights into biological and functional changes and health effects, after continuous SA over 1 year. Study results will be instrumental in assessing novel alternative products to cigarettes considered for tobacco harm reduction strategies.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02432729; http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02432729 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/78QxovZrr)

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/12138

Vitamin B-6 Status Correlates with Disease Activity in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients During Treatment with TNFα Inhibitors

BACKGROUND

A frequent observation in inflammatory conditions, including rheumatoid arthritis (RA), is low circulating amounts of pyridoxal 5'-phosphate (PLP), the metabolically active form of vitamin B-6. Recently, a functional marker of vitamin B-6 status, the ratio of 3-hydroxykynurenine (HK): xanthurenic acid (XA) in plasma (HK: XA), was proposed.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated vitamin B-6 status in patients with RA before and after established treatment with TNFα inhibitors.

METHODS

We performed a longitudinal study of RA patients (n = 106, 36% men, median age 54 y) starting first treatment with a TNFα inhibitor (infliximab, etanercept, adalimumab, golimumab, or certolizumab). Clinical assessment (Disease Activity Score for 28 standard joints, DAS28), joint ultrasonography, and blood draw were performed at baseline and after 3 mo treatment. Plasma concentrations of PLP, HK, and XA were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Associations of changes in vitamin B-6 markers with change in DAS28 were assessed by generalized additive models regression and with European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response categories by linear regression.

RESULTS

At baseline PLP was inversely correlated with CRP (ρ = -0.27, P = 0.007), whereas HK: XA correlated with DAS28 (ρ = 0.46, P < 0.001), CRP (ρ = 0.36, P < 0.001), and ultrasonography scores (ρ = 0.29-0.35, P ≤ 0.003). After 3 mo treatment, the change (a 33% overall reduction) in DAS28 was related to changes in both PLP (ß = -0.28, P = 0.01) and HK: XA (ß = 0.33, P < 0.001). Good responders (45%) according to EULAR criteria experienced a 31% increase in PLP (P = 0.003) and an 11% decrease in HK: XA (P = 0.1), whereas nonresponders (24%) experienced a 25% increase in HK: XA (P = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

Two independent measures of vitamin B-6 status confirm an association with disease activity in RA patients. The association of HK: XA with disease activity may also imply perturbations in kynurenine metabolism in RA. This trial was registered at helseforskning.etikkom.no as 2011/490.

Circulating cotinine concentrations and lung cancer risk in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3)

Background

Self-reported smoking is the principal measure used to assess lung cancer risk in epidemiological studies. We evaluated if circulating cotinine-a nicotine metabolite and biomarker of recent tobacco exposure-provides additional information on lung cancer risk.

Methods

The study was conducted in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3) involving 20 prospective cohort studies. Pre-diagnostic serum cotinine concentrations were measured in one laboratory on 5364 lung cancer cases and 5364 individually matched controls. We used conditional logistic regression to evaluate the association between circulating cotinine and lung cancer, and assessed if cotinine provided additional risk-discriminative information compared with self-reported smoking (smoking status, smoking intensity, smoking duration), using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results

We observed a strong positive association between cotinine and lung cancer risk for current smokers [odds ratio (OR ) per 500 nmol/L increase in cotinine (OR500): 1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32-1.47]. Cotinine concentrations consistent with active smoking (≥115 nmol/L) were common in former smokers (cases: 14.6%; controls: 9.2%) and rare in never smokers (cases: 2.7%; controls: 0.8%). Former and never smokers with cotinine concentrations indicative of active smoking (≥115 nmol/L) also showed increased lung cancer risk. For current smokers, the risk-discriminative performance of cotinine combined with self-reported smoking (AUCintegrated: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.68-0.71) yielded a small improvement over self-reported smoking alone (AUCsmoke: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.64-0.68) (P = 1.5x10-9).

Conclusions

Circulating cotinine concentrations are consistently associated with lung cancer risk for current smokers and provide additional risk-discriminative information compared with self-report smoking alone.

Evaluation of Biological and Functional Changes in Healthy Smokers Switching to the Tobacco Heating System 2.2 Versus Continued Tobacco Smoking: Protocol for a Randomized, Controlled, Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND

Tobacco harm reduction, substituting less harmful tobacco products for combustible cigarettes, is a complementary approach for smokers who would otherwise continue to smoke. The Philip Morris International (PMI) Tobacco Heating System (THS) 2.2 is a novel tobacco product with the potential to reduce the risk of harm in smokers compared to continued smoking of combustible cigarettes. It heats tobacco electrically in a controlled manner, never allowing the temperature to exceed 350°C, thereby preventing the combustion process from taking place and producing substantially lower levels of toxicants while providing nicotine, taste, ritual, and a sensory experience that closely parallels combustible cigarettes. Previous clinical studies have demonstrated reduced exposure to the toxicants (approaching the levels observed after quitting) for smokers who switched to THS 2.2, for three months. For adult smokers who would otherwise continue smoking combustible cigarettes, switching to THS 2.2 may represent an alternative way to reduce the risk of tobacco-related diseases.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to further substantiate the harm reduction potential of THS 2.2 by demonstrating favorable changes in a set of 8 coprimary endpoints, representative of pathomechanistic pathways (ie, inflammation, oxidative stress, lipid metabolism, respiratory function, and genotoxicity), linked to smoking-related diseases, in smokers switching from combustible cigarettes to THS 2.2.

METHODS

This study was a randomized, controlled, two-arm parallel group, multicenter ambulatory US study conducted in healthy adult smokers switching from combustible cigarettes to THS 2.2 compared with smokers continuing to smoke combustible cigarettes for six months. Subjects had a smoking history of at least ten years and did not intend to quit within the next six months.

RESULTS

Enrollment started in March 2015 and the trial was completed in September 2016. In total, 984 subjects were randomized (combustible cigarettes, n=483; THS 2.2, n=477), and 803 completed the study. The results are expected to be available in a subsequent publication in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

In this paper, we describe the rationale and design for this clinical study that focused on the evaluation of THS 2.2's potential to reduce the risk of smoking-related diseases compared with that of combustible cigarettes. This study will provide insights regarding favorable changes in biological and functional endpoints informed by effects known to be seen upon smoking cessation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02396381; http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02396381 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/71PCRdagP).

REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER

RR1-10.2196/11294.

Crowd-Sourced Verification of Computational Methods and Data in Systems Toxicology: A Case Study with a Heat-Not-Burn Candidate Modified Risk Tobacco Product

Systems toxicology intends to quantify the effect of toxic molecules in biological systems and unravel their mechanisms of toxicity. The development of advanced computational methods is required for analyzing and integrating high throughput data generated for this purpose as well as for extrapolating predictive toxicological outcomes and risk estimates. To ensure the performance and reliability of the methods and verify conclusions from systems toxicology data analysis, it is important to conduct unbiased evaluations by independent third parties. As a case study, we report here the results of an independent verification of methods and data in systems toxicology by crowdsourcing. The sbv IMPROVER systems toxicology computational challenge aimed to evaluate computational methods for the development of blood-based gene expression signature classification models with the ability to predict smoking exposure status. Participants created/trained models on blood gene expression data sets including smokers/mice exposed to 3R4F (a reference cigarette) or noncurrent smokers/Sham (mice exposed to air). Participants applied their models on unseen data to predict whether subjects classify closer to smoke-exposed or nonsmoke exposed groups. The data sets also included data from subjects that had been exposed to potential modified risk tobacco products (MRTPs) or that had switched to a MRTP after exposure to conventional cigarette smoke. The scoring of anonymized participants' predictions was done using predefined metrics. The top 3 performers' methods predicted class labels with area under the precision recall scores above 0.9. Furthermore, although various computational approaches were used, the crowd's results confirmed our own data analysis outcomes with regards to the classification of MRTP-related samples. Mice exposed directly to a MRTP were classified closer to the Sham group. After switching to a MRTP, the confidence that subjects belonged to the smoke-exposed group decreased significantly. Smoking exposure gene signatures that contributed to the group separation included a core set of genes highly consistent across teams such as AHRR, LRRN3, SASH1, and P2RY6. In conclusion, crowdsourcing constitutes a pertinent approach, in complement to the classical peer review process, to independently and unbiasedly verify computational methods and data for risk assessment using systems toxicology.

A randomised, parallel group study to evaluate the safety profile of an electronic vapour product over 12 weeks

A randomised, parallel group clinical study was performed to evaluate the safety profile of an e-vapour product (EVP; 2.0% nicotine) in smokers of conventional cigarettes (CCs) switching to use the EVP for 12 weeks. During the study, no clinically significant product-related findings were observed in terms of vital signs, electrocardiogram, lung function tests and standard clinical laboratory parameters. Adverse events (AEs) reported by EVP subjects were more frequent during the first week after switching to the EVP. The frequency of AEs reduced thereafter and out of a total of 1515 reported AEs, 495 were judged as being related to nicotine withdrawal symptoms. The most frequently stated AEs were headache, sore throat, desire to smoke and cough reported by 47.4, 27.8, 27.5 and 17.0% of subjects, respectively. Only 6% of AEs were judged as probably or definitely related to the EVP. Additional observations in EVP subjects included a decrease in the level of urine nicotine equivalents by up to 33.8%, and decreases in the level of three biomarkers of exposure to toxicants known to be present in CC smoke (benzene, acrolein and 4-[methylnitrosamino]-1-[3-pyridyl]-1-butanone). The decrease in nicotine equivalents coincided with an increase in nicotine withdrawal symptoms, measured by a questionnaire, which subsided after two weeks. The data presented here shows the potential EVPs may offer smokers looking for an alternative to CCs.

Evaluation of Biomarkers of Exposure in Smokers Switching to a Carbon-Heated Tobacco Product: A Controlled, Randomized, Open-Label 5-Day Exposure Study

Introduction:

Tobacco harm reduction aims to provide reduced risk alternatives to adult smokers who would otherwise continue smoking combustible cigarettes (CCs). This randomized, open-label, three-arm, parallel-group, single-center, short-term confinement study aimed to investigate the effects of exposure to selected harmful and potentially harmful constituents (HPHCs) of cigarette smoke in adult smokers who switched to a carbon-heated tobacco product (CHTP) compared with adult smokers who continued to smoke CCs and those who abstained from smoking for 5 days.

Methods:

Biomarkers of exposure to HPHCs, including nicotine and urinary excretion of mutagenic material, were measured in 24-hour urine and blood samples in 112 male and female Caucasian smokers switching from CCs to the CHTP ad libitum use. Puffing topography was assessed during product use.

Results:

Switching to the CHTP or smoking abstinence (SA) resulted in marked decreases from baseline to Day 5 in all biomarkers of exposure measured, including carboxyhemoglobin (43% and 55% decrease in the CHTP and SA groups, respectively). The urinary excretion of mutagenic material was also markedly decreased on Day 5 compared with baseline (89% and 87% decrease in the CHTP and SA groups, respectively). No changes in biomarkers of exposure to HPHCs or urinary mutagenic material were observed between baseline and Day 5 in the CC group.

Conclusions:

Our results provide clear evidence supporting a reduction in the level of exposure to HPHCs of tobacco smoke in smokers who switch to CHTP under controlled conditions, similar to that observed in SA.

Implications:

The reductions observed in biomarkers of exposure to HPHCs of tobacco smoke in this short-term study could potentially also reduce the incidence of cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in those smokers who switch to a heated tobacco product.

A critical assessment of the scientific basis, and implementation, of regulations for the safety assessment and marketing of innovative tobacco-related products

Our scientific, logistical, ethical and animal welfare-related concerns about the latest US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulations for existing and so-called 'new' tobacco products, aimed at reducing harmful exposures, are explained. Such claims for sales in the USA now have to be based on a wide range of information, a key part of which will increasingly be data on safety and risk. One of the pathways to achieve marketing authorisation is to demonstrate substantial equivalence (SE) with benchmark products, called predicates. However, the regulations are insufficiently transparent with regard to: a) a rationale for the cut-off date for 'old' and 'new' products, and for exempting the former from regulation; b) the scientific validity and operation of SE; c) options for product labelling to circumvent SE; d) the experimental data required to support, and criteria to judge, a claim; and e) a strategy for risk assessment/management. Scientific problems related to the traditional animal methods used in respiratory disease and inhalation toxicology, and the use of quantitative comparators of toxicity, such as the No Observed Adverse Effect Level, are discussed. We review the advantages of relevant in vitro, mechanism-based, target tissue-oriented technologies, which an advisory report of the Institute of Medicine of the US National Academy of Sciences largely overlooked. These benefits include: a) the availability, for every major site in the respiratory tract, of organotypic human cell-based tissue culture systems, many of which are already being used by the industry; b) the accurate determination of concentrations of test materials received by target cells; c) methods for exposure to particulate and vapour phases of smoke, separately or combined; d) the ability to study tissue-specific biotransformation; and e) the use of modern, human-focused methodologies, unaffected by species differences. How data extrapolation, for risk assessment, from tissue culture to the whole animal, could be addressed, is also discussed. A cost (to animal welfare)-benefit (to society, including industry and consumers) analysis was conducted, taking into account the above information; the potential for animal suffering; the extensive data already available; the existence of other, less hazardous forms of nicotine delivery; the fact that much data will be generated solely for benchmarking; and that many smokers (especially nicotine-dependents) ignore health warnings. It is concluded that, in common with policies of several tobacco companies and countries, the use of laboratory animals for tobacco testing is very difficult, if not impossible, to justify. Instead, we propose and argue for an integrated testing scheme, starting with extensive chemical analysis of the ingredients and by-products associated with the use of tobacco products and their toxicity, followed by use of in vitro systems and early clinical studies (involving specific biomarkers) with weight-of-evidence assessments at each stage. Appropriate adjustment factors could be developed to enable concentration-response data obtained in vitro, with the other information generated by the strategy, to enable the FDA to meet its objectives. It is hoped that our intentionally provocative ideas will stimulate further debate on this contentious area of regulatory testing and public safety.