Associations of peak shifts in age--prevalence for human malarias with bednet coverage

Case Definitions of Clinical Malaria in Children from Three Health Districts in the North Region of Cameroon

Malaria endemicity in Cameroon greatly varies according to ecological environment. In such conditions, parasitaemia, which is associated with fever, may not always suffice to define an episode of clinical malaria. The evaluation of malaria control intervention strategies mostly consists of identifying cases of clinical malaria and is crucial to promote better diagnosis for accurate measurement of the impact of the intervention. We sought out to define and quantify clinical malaria cases in children from three health districts in the Northern region of Cameroon. A cohort study of 6,195 children aged between 6 and 120 months was carried out during the raining season (July to October) between 2013 and 2014. Differential diagnosis of clinical malaria was performed using the parasite density and axillary temperature. At recruitment, patients with malaria-related symptoms (fever [axillary temperature ≥ 37.5°C], chills, severe malaise, headache, or vomiting) and a malaria positive blood smear were classified under clinical malaria group. The malaria attributable fraction was calculated using logistic regression models. Plasmodium falciparum was responsible for over 91% of infections. Children from Pitoa health district had the highest number of asymptomatic infections (45.60%) compared to those from Garoua and Mayo Oulo. The most suitable cut-off for the association between parasite densities and fever was found among children less than 24 months. Overall, parasite densities that ranged above 3,200 parasites per μl of blood could be used to define the malaria attributable fever cases. In groups of children aged between 24 and 59 months and 60 and 94 months, the optimum cut-off parasite density was 6,400 parasites per μl of blood, while children aged between 95 and 120 months had a cut-off of 800 parasites per μl of blood. In the same ecoepidemiological zone, clinical malaria case definitions are influenced by age and location (health district) and this could be considered when evaluating malaria intervention strategies in endemic areas.

Multiplicity of Infection Is a Poor Predictor of Village-Level Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum Population Prevalence in the Southwest Pacific

Across 8101 individuals in 46 villages, the proportion of Plasmodium spp. multiple clone infections (0%–53.8%) did not reflect prevalence by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR; 1.9%–38.4%), except for P. vivax in Solomon Islands (P < .001). Thus this parameter was not informative to identify transmission foci. In contrast, prevalence by microscopy and qPCR correlated well.

Sustained Malaria Control Over an 8-Year Period in Papua New Guinea: The Challenge of Low-Density Asymptomatic Plasmodium Infections

Background

The scale-up of effective malaria control in the last decade has resulted in a substantial decline in the incidence of clinical malaria in many countries. The effects on the proportions of asymptomatic and submicroscopic infections and on transmission potential are yet poorly understood.

Methods

In Papua New Guinea, vector control has been intensified since 2008, and improved diagnosis and treatment was introduced in 2012. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted in Madang Province in 2006 (with 1280 survey participants), 2010 (with 2117 participants), and 2014 (with 2516 participants). Infections were quantified by highly sensitive quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis, and gametocytes were quantified by reverse-transcription qPCR analysis.

Results

Plasmodium falciparum prevalence determined by qPCR decreased from 42% in 2006 to 9% in 2014. The P. vivax prevalence decreased from 42% in 2006 to 13% in 2010 but then increased to 20% in 2014. Parasite densities decreased 5-fold from 2006 to 2010; 72% of P. falciparum and 87% of P. vivax infections were submicroscopic in 2014. Gametocyte density and positivity correlated closely with parasitemia, and population gametocyte prevalence decreased 3-fold for P. falciparum and 29% for P. vivax from 2010 to 2014.

Conclusions

Sustained control has resulted in reduced malaria transmission potential, but an increasing proportion of gametocyte carriers are asymptomatic and submicroscopic and represent a challenge to malaria control.

Natural immune response to Plasmodium vivax alpha-helical coiled coil protein motifs and its association with the risk of P. vivax malaria

Protein α-helical coiled coil structures are known to induce antibodies able to block critical functions in different pathogens. In a previous study, a total of 50 proteins of Plasmodium vivax erythrocytic asexual stages containing α-helical coiled coil structural motifs were identified in silico, and the corresponding peptides were chemically synthesized. A total of 43 peptides were recognized by naturally acquired antibodies in plasma samples from both Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Colombian adult donors. In this study, the association between IgG antibodies to these peptides and clinical immunity was further explored by measuring total IgG antibody levels to 24 peptides in baseline samples from a longitudinal study of children aged 1–3 years (n = 164) followed for 16 months. Samples were reactive to all peptides tested. Eight peptides were recognized by >50% of individuals, whereas only one peptide had < 20% reactivity. Children infected at baseline were seropositive to 23/24 peptides. No significant association was observed between antibody titers and age or molecular force of infection, suggesting that antibody levels had already reached an equilibrium. There was a strong association between antibody levels to all peptides and protection against P. vivax clinical episodes during the 16 months follow-up. These results suggest that the selected coiled coil antigens might be good markers of both exposure and acquired immunity to P. vivax malaria, and further preclinical investigation should be performed to determine their potential as P. vivax vaccine antigens.

Effects of community-level bed net coverage on malaria morbidity in Lilongwe, Malawi

BACKGROUND

The protective effect of insecticide-treated bed nets against individual-level malaria transmission is well known, however community-level effects are less understood. Protective effects from community-level bed net use against malaria transmission have been observed in clinical trials, however, the relationship is less clear outside of a controlled research setting. The objective of this research was to investigate the effect of community-level bed net use against malaria transmission outside of a bed net clinical trial setting in Lilongwe, Malawi following national efforts to scale-up ownership of long-lasting, insecticide-treated bed nets.

METHODS

An annual, cross-sectional, household-randomized, malaria transmission intensity survey was conducted in Lilongwe, Malawi (2011-2013). Health, demographic, and geographic-location data were collected. Participant blood samples were tested for Plasmodium falciparum presence. The percentage of people sleeping under a bed net within 400-m and 1-km radii of all participants was measured. Mixed effects logistic regression models were used to measure the relationship between malaria prevalence and surrounding bed net coverage. Each year, 800 people were enrolled (400 <5 years; 200 5-19 years; 200 ≥20 years; total n = 2400).

RESULTS

From 2011 to 2013, malaria prevalence declined from 12.9 to 5.6%, while bed net use increased from 53.8 to 78.6%. For every 1% increase in community bed net coverage, malaria prevalence decreased among children under 5 years old [adjusted odds ratio: 0.98 (0.96, 1.00)]. Similar effects were observed in participants 5-19 years [unadjusted odds ratio: 0.98 (0.97, 1.00)]; the effect was attenuated after adjusting for individual-level bed net use. Community coverage was not associated with malaria prevalence among adults ≥20 years. Supplemental analyses identified more pronounced indirect protective effects from community-level bed net use against malaria transmission among children under 5 years who were sleeping under a bed net [adjusted odds ratio: 0.97 (0.94, 0.99)], compared to children who were not sleeping under a bed net [adjusted odds ratio: 0.99 (0.97, 1.01)].

CONCLUSIONS

Malawi's efforts to scale up ownership of long-lasting, insecticide-treated bed nets are effective in increasing reported use. Increased community-level bed net coverage appears to provide additional protection against malaria transmission beyond individual use in a real-world context.

Global Epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax

Plasmodium vivax is the most widespread human malaria, putting 2.5 billion people at risk of infection. Its unique biological and epidemiological characteristics pose challenges to control strategies that have been principally targeted against Plasmodium falciparum Unlike P. falciparum, P. vivax infections have typically low blood-stage parasitemia with gametocytes emerging before illness manifests, and dormant liver stages causing relapses. These traits affect both its geographic distribution and transmission patterns. Asymptomatic infections, high-risk groups, and resulting case burdens are described in this review. Despite relatively low prevalence measurements and parasitemia levels, along with high proportions of asymptomatic cases, this parasite is not benign. Plasmodium vivax can be associated with severe and even fatal illness. Spreading resistance to chloroquine against the acute attack, and the operational inadequacy of primaquine against the multiple attacks of relapse, exacerbates the risk of poor outcomes among the tens of millions suffering from infection each year. Without strategies accounting for these P. vivax-specific characteristics, progress toward elimination of endemic malaria transmission will be substantially impeded.

Malaria intervention scale-up in Africa: effectiveness predictions for health programme planning tools, based on dynamic transmission modelling

Background

Scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue to further important gains made in the past decade, but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. Statistical models were developed summarizing dynamically simulated relations between increases in coverage and intervention impact, to inform a malaria module in the Spectrum health programme planning tool.

Methods

The dynamic Plasmodiumfalciparum transmission model OpenMalaria was used to simulate health effects of scale-up of insecticide-treated net (ITN) usage, indoor residual spraying (IRS), management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CM) and seasonal malaria chemoprophylaxis (SMC) over a 10-year horizon, over a range of settings with stable endemic malaria. Generalized linear regression models (GLMs) were used to summarize determinants of impact across a range of sub-Sahara African settings.

Results

Selected (best) GLMs explained 94–97 % of variation in simulated post-intervention parasite infection prevalence, 86–97 % of variation in case incidence (three age groups, three 3-year horizons), and 74–95 % of variation in malaria mortality. For any given effective population coverage, CM and ITNs were predicted to avert most prevalent infections, cases and deaths, with lower impacts for IRS, and impacts of SMC limited to young children reached. Proportional impacts were larger at lower endemicity, and (except for SMC) largest in low-endemic settings with little seasonality. Incremental health impacts for a given coverage increase started to diminish noticeably at above ~40 % coverage, while in high-endemic settings, CM and ITNs acted in synergy by lowering endemicity. Vector control and CM, by reducing endemicity and acquired immunity, entail a partial rebound in malaria mortality among people above 5 years of age from around 5–7 years following scale-up. SMC does not reduce endemicity, but slightly shifts malaria to older ages by reducing immunity in child cohorts reached.

Conclusion

Health improvements following malaria intervention scale-up vary with endemicity, seasonality, age and time. Statistical models can emulate epidemiological dynamics and inform strategic planning and target setting for malaria control.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1461-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Prevalence of malaria, prevention measures, and main clinical features in febrile children admitted to the Franceville Regional Hospital, Gabon

Recently, major progress has been made in controlling malaria in Africa. However, in Gabon, little information is available on the role of malaria in childhood febrile syndromes, the use and efficacy of preventive measures, and Plasmodium species distribution. Here, we characterized malaria in febrile children in Franceville, Gabon through a cross-sectional study at the pediatric unit of the Franceville Regional Hospital. We registered 940 febrile children. Their general condition was markedly altered in 11.7% of cases (n = 89/760); among them 19 (21.4%) had a severely altered condition. Malaria was the second most frequent etiology (22.0%; n = 162/738), after respiratory tract infections (37.3%; n = 275/738). Children with malaria (63 ± 39 months) were older than children without malaria (40 ± 37 months) (p = 0.0013). Hemoglobin, red blood cell, white blood cell, and platelet values were lower in children with malaria than in those without malaria (p < 0.0001). Anemia was the most common feature of severe malaria (70.6%; n = 12/17), followed by neurological involvement (23.5%; n = 4/17). The prevalence of malaria was significantly higher in children older than 60 months than in younger children (40% vs. 15.5%; p < 0.0001). Plasmodium falciparum accounted for 97.5% of cases (158/162), followed by Plasmodium malariae (2.5%; n = 4/162). Bed net use was high (74.4%; n = 697/936) and contributed to malaria prevention (p = 0.001). Good basic knowledge of malaria also had a preventive effect (p < 0.0001). The prevalence of malaria in children in Franceville did not decrease significantly from 2009 to 2012, remaining at about 20%, highlighting that preventive measures should be reinforced.

Identifying risk factors for Plasmodium infection and anaemia in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo

Background

There is little data on the risk factors for malaria infection in large cities in central Africa and in all age groups. There may be different associations with the risk factors for areas with different malaria transmission intensities such as the effect of fever or age. This study aimed at identifying risk factors associated with Plasmodium infection and anaemia among children 6–59 months and individuals aged older than 5 years in Kinshasa, a large city with heterogeneity in malaria prevalence.

Methods

This study analysed data from 3342 children aged 6–59 months from 25 non-rural health zones (HZs) and for 816 individuals aged older than 5 years from two HZs in Kinshasa (non-rural), collected during a cross sectional malaria survey in 2011. Logistic regression with random effects was used to investigate predictors for malaria and anaemia. Differences in risk factors in areas with a prevalence of less than 10 and 10 % or greater were investigated.

Results

There was evidence of a different age-pattern in the two transmission settings. For children under 5 years, the highest prevalence of malaria was observed in the 48–59 months group in both transmission settings, but it increased more gently for the lower transmission HZs (p = 0.009). In a separate analysis in children over 5 years in two selected HZs, the peak prevalence was in 5–9 years old in the higher transmission setting and in 15–19 years old in the lower transmission setting. Reported fever was associated with malaria in both transmission strata, with no evidence of a difference in these associations (p = 0.71); however in children older than 5 years there was a significant interaction with a stronger association in the low transmission HZ. Insecticide-treated net (ITN) use was associated with a lower risk of malaria infection in children 6–59 months in the high transmission HZs. Similar estimates were found in children over 5 years and the lower transmission HZ but the associations there were not significant. There was no evidence of a difference in these associations by strata. The risk of anaemia decreased with increasing age in all strata, whereas it increased with malaria infection and reported fever. ITN use did not show evidence of protection against anaemia. Low socio-economic status was associated with malaria in high transmission setting in children 6–59 months and anaemia in low transmission setting.

Conclusions

This study shows that in areas of low transmission in Kinshasa, the peak prevalence occurs in older age groups however ITN use was highest in children under 5 years. Targeted distribution of ITN to all age groups should be continued. For most risk factors, there was no evidence of an interaction with transmission intensity however the associations with age and with fever in the last 2 weeks did vary significantly.

Seasonality and shift in age-specific malaria prevalence and incidence in Binko and Carrière villages close to the lake in Selingué, Mali

BACKGROUND

Malaria transmission in Mali is seasonal and peaks at the end of the rainy season in October. This study assessed the seasonal variations in the epidemiology of malaria among children under 10 years of age living in two villages in Selingué: Carrière, located along the Sankarani River but distant from the hydroelectric dam, and Binko, near irrigated rice fields, close to the dam. The aim of this study was to provide baseline data, seasonal pattern and age distribution of malaria incidence in two sites situated close to a lake in Selingué.

METHODS

Geographically, Selingué area is located in the basin of Sakanrani and belongs to the district of Yanfolila in the third administrative region of Mali, Sikasso. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted in October 2010 (end of transmission season) and in July 2011 (beginning of transmission season) to determine the point prevalence of asymptomatic parasitaemia, and anaemia among the children. Cumulative incidence of malaria per month was determined in a cohort of 549 children through active and passive case detection from November 2010 through October 2011. The number of clinical episodes per year was determined among the children in the cohort. Logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for malaria.

RESULTS

The prevalence of malaria parasitaemia varied significantly between villages with a strong seasonality in Carrière (52.0-18.9 % in October 2010 and July 2011, respectively) compared with Binko (29.8-23.8 % in October 2010 and July 2011, respectively). Children 6-9 years old were at least twice more likely to carry parasites than children up to 5 years old. For malaria incidence, 64.8-71.9 % of all children experienced at least one episode of clinical malaria in Binko and Carrière, respectively. The peak incidence was observed between August and October (end of the rainy season), but the incidence remained high until December. Surprisingly, the risk of clinical malaria was two- to nine-fold higher among children 5-9 years old compared to younger children.

CONCLUSIONS

A shift in the peak of clinical episodes from children under 5-9 years of age calls for expanding control interventions, such as seasonal malaria chemoprophylaxis targeting the peak transmission months.

Malaria prevalence and incidence in an isolated, meso-endemic area of Mozambique

Isolated areas, such as the 2 × 7 km peninsula of Linga Linga in Mozambique, are the places where malaria might be most easily eliminated. Currently available control strategies include long-lasting insecticidal bednets impregnated with pyrethroid insecticides (LLINs), rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for diagnosis and artemisinin based combination therapy (ACT) for treatment and these were applied on the peninsula. In 2007, following a census of the population and mapping of 500 households, five annual all-age prevalence surveys were conducted. Information on LLIN use, house construction, and animal ownership was obtained. A spatially structured generalized additive model indicated that malaria risk was greatest towards the northern end of the peninsula and that people living in houses with grass or thatch roofs had a greater risk of malaria than those living in houses with corrugated iron roofs. Incidence peaked nine weeks after rainfall (r² = 0.34, p = 0.0002). From 2009 incidence was measured at a centrally based project clinic. The proportion of under nine-year-old resident attendees diagnosed with malaria decreased significantly from 48% in 2009, to 35% in 2010 and 25% in 2011. At the same time, there was a shift in the peak age of cases from 1–4 year olds to 5–9 year olds. Nevertheless, in order to further reduce malaria transmission in an area such as Linga Linga, additional vector control measures need to be considered.

Malaria, anaemia and under-nutrition: three frequently co-existing conditions among preschool children in rural Rwanda

Background

Malaria, anaemia and under-nutrition are three highly prevalent and frequently co-existing diseases that cause significant morbidity and mortality particularly among children aged less than 5 years. Currently, there is paucity of conclusive studies on the burden of and associations between malaria, anaemia and under-nutrition in Rwanda and comparable sub-Saharan and thus, this study measured the prevalence of malaria parasitaemia, anaemia and under-nutrition among preschool age children in a rural Rwandan setting and evaluated for interactions between and risk determinants for these three conditions.

Methods

A cross-sectional household (HH) survey involving children aged 6–59 months was conducted. Data on malaria parasitaemia, haemoglobin densities, anthropometry, demographics, socioeconomic status (SES) and malaria prevention knowledge and practices were collected.

Results

The prevalences of malaria parasitaemia and anaemia were 5.9 and 7.0 %, respectively, whilst the prevalence of stunting was 41.3 %. Malaria parasitaemia risk differed by age groups with odds ratio (OR) = 2.53; P = 0.04 for age group 24–35 months, OR = 3.5; P = 0.037 for age group 36–47 months, and OR = 3.03; P = 0.014 for age group 48–60 months, whilst a reduced risk was found among children living in high SES HHs (OR = 0.37; P = 0.029). Risk of anaemia was high among children aged ≥12 months, those with malaria parasitaemia (OR = 3.86; P ≤ 0.0001) and children living in HHs of lower SES. Overall, under-nutrition was not associated with malaria parasitaemia. Underweight was higher among males (OR = 1.444; P = 0.019) and children with anaemia (OR = 1.98; P = 0.004).

Conclusions

In this study group, four in 10 and one in 10 children were found stunted and underweight, respectively, in an area of low malaria transmission. Under-nutrition was not associated with malaria risk. While the high prevalence of stunting requires urgent response, reductions in malaria parasitaemia and anaemia rates may require, in addition to scaled-up use of insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual insecticide spraying, improvements in HH SES and better housing to reduce risk of malaria.

Distribution of malaria exposure in endemic countries in Africa considering country levels of effective treatment

Background

Malaria prevalence, clinical incidence, treatment, and transmission rates are dynamically interrelated. Prevalence is often considered a measure of malaria transmission, but treatment of clinical malaria reduces prevalence, and consequently also infectiousness to the mosquito vector and onward transmission. The impact of the frequency of treatment on prevalence in a population is generally not considered. This can lead to potential underestimation of malaria exposure in settings with good health systems. Furthermore, these dynamical relationships between prevalence, treatment, and transmission have not generally been taken into account in estimates of burden.

Methods

Using prevalence as an input, estimates of disease incidence and transmission [as the distribution of the entomological inoculation rate (EIR)] for Plasmodium falciparum have now been made for 43 countries in Africa using both empirical relationships (that do not allow for treatment) and OpenMalaria dynamic micro-simulation models (that explicitly include the effects of treatment). For each estimate, prevalence inputs were taken from geo-statistical models fitted for the year 2010 by the Malaria Atlas Project to all available observed prevalence data. National level estimates of the effectiveness of case management in treating clinical attacks were used as inputs to the estimation of both EIR and disease incidence by the dynamic models.

Results and conclusions

When coverage of effective treatment is taken into account, higher country level estimates of average EIR and thus higher disease burden, are obtained for a given prevalence level, especially where access to treatment is high, and prevalence relatively low. These methods provide a unified framework for comparison of both the immediate and longer-term impacts of case management and of preventive interventions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0864-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Malaria and immunity during pregnancy and postpartum: a tale of two species

It is well established that pregnant women are at an increased risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection when compared to non-pregnant individuals and limited epidemiological data suggest Plasmodium vivax risk also increases with pregnancy. The risk of P. falciparum declines with successive pregnancies due to the acquisition of immunity to pregnancy-specific P. falciparum variants. However, despite similar declines in P. vivax risk with successive pregnancies, there is a paucity of evidence P. vivax-specific immunity. Cross-species immunity, as well as immunological and physiological changes that occur during pregnancy may influence the susceptibility to both P. vivax and P. falciparum. The period following delivery, the postpartum period, is relatively understudied and available epidemiological data suggests that it may also be a period of increased risk of infection to Plasmodium spp. Here we review the literature and directly compare and contrast the epidemiology, clinical pathogenesis and immunological features of P. vivax and P. falciparum in pregnancy, with a particular focus on studies performed in areas co-endemic for both species. Furthermore, we review the intriguing epidemiology literature of both P. falciparum and P. vivax postpartum and relate observations to the growing literature pertaining to malaria immunology in the postpartum period.

Malaria parasite carriage and risk determinants in a rural population: a malariometric survey in Rwanda

Background

Based on routine health facility case data, Rwanda has achieved a significant malaria burden reduction in the past ten years. However, community-based malaria parasitaemia burden and reasons for continued residual infections, despite a high coverage of control interventions, have yet to be characterized. Measurement of malaria parasitaemia rates and evaluation of associated risk factors among asymptomatic household members in a rural community in Rwanda were conducted.

Methods

A malariometric household survey was conducted between June and November 2013, involving 12,965 persons living in 3,989 households located in 35 villages in a sector in eastern Rwanda. Screening for malaria parasite carriage and collection of demographic, socio-economic, house structural features, and prior fever management data, were performed. Logistic regression models with adjustment for within- and between-households clustering were used to assess malaria parasitaemia risk determinants.

Results

Overall, malaria parasitaemia was found in 652 (5%) individuals, with 518 (13%) of households having at least one parasitaemic member. High malaria parasite carriage risk was associated with being male, child or adolescent (age group 4–15), reported history of fever and living in a household with multiple occupants. A malaria parasite carriage risk-protective effect was associated with living in households of, higher socio-economic status, where the head of household was educated and where the house floor or walls were made of cement/bricks rather than mud/earth/wood materials. Parasitaemia cases were found to significantly cluster in the Gikundamvura area that neighbours marshlands.

Conclusion

Overall, Ruhuha Sector can be classified as hypo-endemic, albeit with a particular ‘cell of villages’ posing a higher risk for malaria parasitaemia than others. Efforts to further reduce transmission and eventually eliminate malaria locally should focus on investments in programmes that improve house structure features (that limit indoor malaria transmission), making insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying implementation more effective.

The independent effect of living in malaria hotspots on future malaria infection: an observational study from Misungwi, Tanzania

BACKGROUND

As malaria transmission declines, continued improvements of prevention and control interventions will increasingly rely on accurate knowledge of risk factors and an ability to define high-risk areas and populations at risk for focal targeting of interventions. This paper explores the independent association between living in a hotspot and prospective risk of malaria infection.

METHODS

Malaria infection status defined by nPCR and AMA-1 status in year 1 were used to define geographic hotspots using two geospatial statistical methods (SaTScan and Kernel density smoothing). Other malaria risk factors for malaria infection were explored by fitting a multivariable model.

RESULTS

This study demonstrated that residing in infection hotspot of malaria transmission is an independent predictor of malaria infection in the future.

CONCLUSION

It is likely that targeting such hotspots with better coverage and improved malaria control strategies will result in more cost-efficient uses of resources to move towards malaria elimination.

Proposed use of spatial mortality assessments as part of the pesticide evaluation scheme for vector control

Background

The WHO Pesticide Evaluation Scheme to evaluate the efficacy of insecticides does not include the testing of a lethal effect at a distance. A tool was developed to evaluate the spatial mortality of an insecticide product against adult mosquitoes at a distance under laboratory and field conditions. Operational implications are discussed.

Methods

Insecticide paint, Inesfly 5A IGR™, containing two organophosphates (OPs): chlorpyrifos and diazinon, and one insect growth regulator (IGR): pyriproxyfen, was the product tested. Laboratory tests were performed using “distance boxes” with surfaces treated with one layer of control or insecticide paint at a dose of 1 kg/6 sq m. Field tests were conducted up to 12 months in six experimental huts randomly allocated to control or one or two layers of insecticide paint at 1 kg/6 sq m. All distance tests were performed using reference-susceptible strains of Anopheles gambiae and Culex quinquefasciatus left overnight at a distance of 1 m from control or treated surfaces.

Results

After an overnight exposition at distances of 1 m, field and laboratory evaluations at 0 months after treatment (T0) yielded 100% mortality rates on surfaces treated with one layer at 1 kg/6 sq m against susceptible strains of An. gambiae and Cx. quinquefasciatus. Testing for long-term efficacy in the field gave mortality rates of 96-100% after an overnight exposition at a distance of 1 m for up to 12 months in huts where a larger volume was treated (walls and ceilings) with one or two layers of insecticide paint.

Conclusion

A comprehensive evaluation of the full profile of insecticide products, both upon contact and spatially, may help rationalize vector control efforts more efficiently. Treating a large enough volume may extend a product’s mortality efficacy in the long-term, which contact tests would fail to assess. It is hereby proposed to explore the development of cost effective methods to assess spatial mortality and to include them as one additional measurement of insecticide efficacy against mosquitoes and other arthropod vectors in WHOPES Phase I and Phase II studies.

Malaria prevalence, spatial clustering and risk factors in a low endemic area of Eastern Rwanda: a cross sectional study

Background

Rwanda reported significant reductions in malaria burden following scale up of control intervention from 2005 to 2010. This study sought to; measure malaria prevalence, describe spatial malaria clustering and investigate for malaria risk factors among health-centre-presumed malaria cases and their household members in Eastern Rwanda.

Methods

A two-stage health centre and household-based survey was conducted in Ruhuha sector, Eastern Rwanda from April to October 2011. At the health centre, data, including malaria diagnosis and individual level malaria risk factors, was collected. At households of these Index cases, a follow-up survey, including malaria screening for all household members and collecting household level malaria risk factor data, was conducted.

Results

Malaria prevalence among health centre attendees was 22.8%. At the household level, 90 households (out of 520) had at least one malaria-infected member and the overall malaria prevalence for the 2634 household members screened was 5.1%. Among health centre attendees, the age group 5–15 years was significantly associated with an increased malaria risk and a reported ownership of ≥4 bednets was significantly associated with a reduced malaria risk. At the household level, age groups 5–15 and >15 years and being associated with a malaria positive index case were associated with an increased malaria risk, while an observed ownership of ≥4 bednets was associated with a malaria risk-protective effect. Significant spatial malaria clustering among household cases with clusters located close to water- based agro-ecosystems was observed.

Conclusions

Malaria prevalence was significantly higher among health centre attendees and their household members in an area with significant household spatial malaria clustering. Circle surveillance involving passive case finding at health centres and proactive case detection in households can be a powerful tool for identifying household level malaria burden, risk factors and clustering.

Predictors of Plasmodium falciparum malaria incidence in Chano Mille, South Ethiopia: a longitudinal study

We assessed potential effects of local meteorological and environmental conditions, indoor residual spraying with insecticides, insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) use at individual and community levels, and individual factors on Plasmodium falciparum malaria incidence in a village in south Ethiopia. A cohort of 8,121 people was followed for 101 weeks with active and passive surveillance. Among 317 microscopically confirmed P. falciparum malaria episodes, 29.3% occurred among temporary residents. The incidence density was 3.6/10,000 person-weeks of observation. We observed higher malaria incidence among males, children 5-14 years of age, ITNs non-users, the poor, and people who lived closer to vector breeding places. Rainfall increased and indoor residual spraying with Deltamethrin reduced falciparum incidence. Although ITNs prevented falciparum malaria for the users, we did not find that free mass ITNs distribution reduced falciparum malaria on a village level.

Simulated impact of RTS,S/AS01 vaccination programs in the context of changing malaria transmission

Introduction

The RTS,S/AS01 pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine is in phase III clinical trials. It is critical to anticipate where and how it should be implemented if trials are successful. Such planning may be complicated by changing levels of malaria transmission.

Methods/results

Computer simulations were used to examine RTS,S/AS01 impact, using a vaccine profile based on phase II trial results, and assuming that protection decays only slowly. Settings were simulated in which baseline transmission (in the absence of vaccine) was fixed or varied between 2 and 20 infectious mosquito bites per person per annum (ibpa) over ten years. Four delivery strategies were studied: routine infant immunization (EPI), EPI plus infant catch-up, EPI plus school-based campaigns, and EPI plus mass campaigns. Impacts in changing transmission settings were similar to those in fixed settings. Assuming a persistent effect of vaccination, at 2 ibpa, the vaccine averted approximately 5–7 deaths per 1000 doses of vaccine when delivered via mass campaigns, but the benefit was less at higher transmission levels. EPI, catch-up and school-based strategies averted 2–3 deaths per 1000 doses in settings with 2 ibpa. In settings where transmission was decreasing or increasing, EPI, catch-up and school-based strategies averted approximately 3–4 deaths per 1000 doses.

Discussion

Where transmission is changing, it appears to be sufficient to consider simulations of pre-erythrocytic vaccine impact at a range of initial transmission levels. At 2 ibpa, mass campaigns averted the most deaths and reduced transmission, but this requires further study. If delivered via EPI, RTS,S/AS01 could avert approximately 6–11 deaths per 1000 vaccinees in all examined settings, similar to estimates for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in African infants. These results support RTS,S/AS01 implementation via EPI, for example alongside vector control interventions, providing that the phase III trials provide support for our assumptions about efficacy.

Research challenges and gaps in malaria knowledge in Papua New Guinea

Taking into consideration the relative number of people living in Papua New Guinea the burden of malaria in this country is among the highest in Asia and the Pacific region. This article summarizes the research questions and challenges being undertaken by the Southwest Pacific International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research in the context of the epidemiology, transmission and pathogenesis of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax at the present time and the recent past. It is hoped that the research accomplished and local infrastructure strengthened by this effort will help inform regional and national policy with regard to the control and ultimately elimination of malaria in this region of the world.

Ensemble modeling of the likely public health impact of a pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine

BACKGROUND

The RTS,S malaria vaccine may soon be licensed. Models of impact of such vaccines have mainly considered deployment via the World Health Organization's Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in areas of stable endemic transmission of Plasmodium falciparum, and have been calibrated for such settings. Their applicability to low transmission settings is unclear. Evaluations of the efficiency of different deployment strategies in diverse settings should consider uncertainties in model structure.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

An ensemble of 14 individual-based stochastic simulation models of P. falciparum dynamics, with differing assumptions about immune decay, transmission heterogeneity, and treatment access, was constructed. After fitting to an extensive library of field data, each model was used to predict the likely health benefits of RTS,S deployment, via EPI (with or without catch-up vaccinations), supplementary vaccination of school-age children, or mass vaccination every 5 y. Settings with seasonally varying transmission, with overall pre-intervention entomological inoculation rates (EIRs) of two, 11, and 20 infectious bites per person per annum, were considered. Predicted benefits of EPI vaccination programs over the simulated 14-y time horizon were dependent on duration of protection. Nevertheless, EPI strategies (with an initial catch-up phase) averted the most deaths per dose at the higher EIRs, although model uncertainty increased with EIR. At two infectious bites per person per annum, mass vaccination strategies substantially reduced transmission, leading to much greater health effects per dose, even at modest coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

In higher transmission settings, EPI strategies will be most efficient, but vaccination additional to the EPI in targeted low transmission settings, even at modest coverage, might be more efficient than national-level vaccination of infants. The feasibility and economics of mass vaccination, and the circumstances under which vaccination will avert epidemics, remain unclear. The approach of using an ensemble of models provides more secure conclusions than a single-model approach, and suggests greater confidence in predictions of health effects for lower transmission settings than for higher ones.

Features and prognosis of severe malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax and mixed Plasmodium species in Papua New Guinean children

Background

Mortality from severe pediatric falciparum malaria appears low in Oceania but Plasmodium vivax is increasingly recognized as a cause of complications and death. The features and prognosis of mixed Plasmodium species infections are poorly characterized. Detailed prospective studies that include accurate malaria diagnosis and detection of co-morbidities are lacking.

Methods and Findings

We followed 340 Papua New Guinean (PNG) children with PCR-confirmed severe malaria (77.1% P. falciparum, 7.9% P. vivax, 14.7% P. falciparum/vivax) hospitalized over a 3-year period. Bacterial cultures were performed to identify co-incident sepsis. Clinical management was under national guidelines. Of 262 children with severe falciparum malaria, 30.9%, 24.8% and 23.2% had impaired consciousness, severe anemia, and metabolic acidosis/hyperlactatemia, respectively. Two (0.8%) presented with hypoglycemia, seven (2.7%) were discharged with neurologic impairment, and one child died (0.4%). The 27 severe vivax malaria cases presented with similar phenotypic features to the falciparum malaria cases but respiratory distress was five times more common (P = 0.001); one child died (3.7%). The 50 children with P. falciparum/vivax infections shared phenotypic features of mono-species infections, but were more likely to present in deep coma and had the highest mortality (8.0%; P = 0.003 vs falciparum malaria). Overall, bacterial cultures were positive in only two non-fatal cases. 83.6% of the children had alpha-thalassemia trait and seven with coma/impaired consciousness had South Asian ovalocytosis (SAO).

Conclusions

The low mortality from severe falciparum malaria in PNG children may reflect protective genetic factors other than alpha-thalassemia trait/SAO, good nutrition, and/or infrequent co-incident sepsis. Severe vivax malaria had similar features but severe P. falciparum/vivax infections were associated with the most severe phenotype and worst prognosis.

Multiplicity and diversity of Plasmodium vivax infections in a highly endemic region in Papua New Guinea

Plasmodium vivax is highly endemic in the lowlands of Papua New Guinea and accounts for a large proportion of the malaria cases in children less than 5 years of age. We collected 2117 blood samples at 2-monthly intervals from a cohort of 268 children aged 1 to 4.5 years and estimated the diversity and multiplicity of P. vivax infection. All P. vivax clones were genotyped using the merozoite surface protein 1 F3 fragment (msp1F3) and the microsatellite MS16 as molecular markers. High diversity was observed with msp1F3 (H_E = 88.1%) and MS16 (H_E = 97.8%). Of the 1162 P. vivax positive samples, 74% harbored multi-clone infections with a mean multiplicity of 2.7 (IQR = 1–3). The multiplicity of P. vivax infection increased slightly with age (P = 0.02), with the strongest increase in very young children. Intensified efforts to control malaria can benefit from knowledge of the diversity and MOI both for assessing the endemic situation and monitoring the effects of interventions.

The parasite Plasmodium vivax is the second most frequent cause of malaria in humans. In the Maprik area in lowland Papua New Guinea, P. vivax and P. falciparum are sympatric each with a prevalence of around 50%. Longitudinal samples from 268 children aged 1 to 4.5 years over 16 months were collected. The 1162 blood samples positive for P. vivax were genotyped for two size-polymorphic molecular markers. A very high parasite diversity was observed. The number of co-infecting parasite clones per carrier (multiplicity) was nearly twice as high for P. vivax as for P. falciparum despite the similar prevalences of the species. The P. vivax multiplicity increased with age, with the strongest increase in young children below 1.5. This is likely to be a consequence of fast acquisition of immunity against P. vivax malaria and also of relapses, the release of long-lasting, silent liver stages to the blood stream. This is the first dataset from a highly endemic setting that presents data on a large number of individual P. vivax clones genotyped with highly diverse markers.

Malaria risk factors in north-east Tanzania

Background

Understanding the factors which determine a household's or individual's risk of malaria infection is important for targeting control interventions at all intensities of transmission. Malaria ecology in Tanzania appears to have reduced over recent years. This study investigated potential risk factors and clustering in face of changing infection dynamics.

Methods

Household survey data were collected in villages of rural Muheza district. Children aged between six months and thirteen years were tested for presence of malaria parasites using microscopy. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed to identify significant risk factors for children. Geographical information systems combined with global positioning data and spatial scan statistic analysis were used to identify clusters of malaria.

Results

Using an insecticide-treated mosquito net of any type proved to be highly protective against malaria (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59-0.96). Children aged five to thirteen years were at higher risk of having malaria than those aged under five years (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.01-2.91). The odds of malaria were less for females when compared to males (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.39-0.98). Two spatial clusters of significantly increased malaria risk were identified in two out of five villages.

Conclusions

This study provides evidence that recent declines in malaria transmission and prevalence may shift the age groups at risk of malaria infection to older children. Risk factor analysis provides support for universal coverage and targeting of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) to all age groups. Clustering of cases indicates heterogeneity of risk. Improved targeting of LLINs or additional supplementary control interventions to high risk clusters may improve outcomes and efficiency as malaria transmission continues to fall under intensified control.

The problems of eligibility and endogenous confounders when assessing the mortality impact of a nationwide disease-prevention programme: the case of insecticide-treated nets in Togo

Evaluation of the mortality impact of nationwide disease-prevention efforts is complicated by potential endogeneity: programme recipients may have unobserved characteristics that simultaneously make them both more likely to become recipients and more likely to survive as a result of other health practices. This population-based study assesses the mortality impact of a nationwide programme that distributed insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) to mothers of children aged 9-59 months in Togo. By comparing mortality rates before and after the programme according to households' eligibility status, we demonstrate that a one-time programme that restricts eligibility to households with a surviving child excludes some households with a high risk of child mortality. We then apply simultaneous estimation models to untangle the mortality impact of ITNs from the effects of unobserved confounders and show that among eligible households, living in a household with ITNs significantly reduces mortality for children aged 20-59 months, even after controlling for endogeneity.

Progress in modelling malaria transmission

Transmission of human malaria is a complicated dynamic process that involves populations of humans, parasites, and vectors. The first mathematical models of malaria are now more than a century old, and they are still a useful conceptual synthetic description of transmission, but they fail in some important ways. To address some of those failures, malaria transmission models have now been extended to consider malaria immunity, superinfection, and heterogeneous biting, among other factors. These extensions of the basic theory often arise from field studies in a single place, but tests of the theory come comparing standard measures of malaria taken from many places across the transmission spectrum. Several good models now exist that describe these basic patterns across the spectrum from low to high endemicity. The future of malaria modeling will involve applying these models to make decisions about real systems and finding new ways to test the underlying causes of the patterns.

Serine protease activities in Leishmania (Leishmania) chagasi promastigotes

The present work reports the isolation, biochemical characterization, and subcellular location of serine proteases from aqueous, detergent soluble, and culture supernatant of Leishmania chagasi promastigote extracts, respectively, LCSII, LCSI, and LCSIII. The active enzyme molecular masses of LCSII were about 105, 66, and 60 kDa; of LCSI, 60 and 58 kDa; and of LCSIII, approximately 76 and 68 kDa. Optimal pH for the enzymes was 7.0 for LCSI and LCSIII and 8.5 for LCSII, and the optimal temperature for all enzymes was 37°C, using α-N-ρ-tosyl-L: -arginine methyl ester as substrate. Assay of thermal stability indicated that LCSIII is the more stable enzyme. Hemoglobin, bovine serum albumin, and ovalbumin were hydrolyzed by LCSII and LCSI but not by LCSIII. Inhibition studies suggested that enzymes belong to the serine protease class modulated by divalent cations. Rabbit antiserum against 56-kDa serine protease of Leishmania amazonensis identified proteins in all extracts of L. chagasi. Furthermore, immunocytochemistry demonstrated that serine proteases are located in flagellar pocket region and cytoplasmic vesicles of L. chagasi promastigotes. These findings indicate that L. chagasi serine proteases differ from L. amazonensis proteases and all known flagellate proteases, but display some similarities with serine proteases from other Leishmania species, suggesting a conservation of this enzymatic activity in the genus.

Cohort trial reveals community impact of insecticide-treated nets on malariometric indices in urban Ghana

The efficacy of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in prevention of malaria and anaemia has been shown in rural settings, but their impact in urban settings is unknown. We carried out an ITN intervention in two communities in urban Accra, Ghana, where local malaria transmission is known to occur. There was evidence for a mass or community effect, despite ITN use by fewer than 35% of households. Children living within 300 m of a household with an ITN had higher haemoglobin concentrations (0.5g/dl higher, P=0.011) and less anaemia (odds ratio 2.21, 95% CI 1.08-4.52, P=0.031 at month 6), than children living more than 300 m away from a household with an ITN, although malaria parasitaemias were similar. With urban populations growing rapidly across Africa, this study shows that ITNs will be an effective tool to assist African countries to achieve their Millennium Development Goals in urban settings. [Registered trial number ISRCTN42261314; http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN42261314].

Differential patterns of infection and disease with P. falciparum and P. vivax in young Papua New Guinean children

Background

Where P. vivax and P. falciparum occur in the same population, the peak burden of P. vivax infection and illness is often concentrated in younger age groups. Experiences from malaria therapy patients indicate that immunity is acquired faster to P. vivax than to P. falciparum challenge. There is however little prospective data on the comparative risk of infection and disease from both species in young children living in co-endemic areas.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A cohort of 264 Papua New Guinean children aged 1-3 years (at enrolment) were actively followed-up for Plasmodium infection and febrile illness for 16 months. Infection status was determined by light microscopy and PCR every 8 weeks and at each febrile episode. A generalised estimating equation (GEE) approach was used to analyse both prevalence of infection and incidence of clinical episodes. A more pronounced rise in prevalence of P. falciparum compared to P. vivax infection was evident with increasing age. Although the overall incidence of clinical episodes was comparable (P. falciparum: 2.56, P. vivax 2.46 episodes / child / yr), P. falciparum and P. vivax infectious episodes showed strong but opposing age trends: P. falciparum incidence increased until the age of 30 months with little change thereafter, but incidence of P. vivax decreased significantly with age throughout the entire age range. For P. falciparum, both prevalence and incidence of P. falciparum showed marked seasonality, whereas only P. vivax incidence but not prevalence decreased in the dry season.

Conclusions/Significance

Under high, perennial exposure, children in PNG begin acquiring significant clinical immunity, characterized by an increasing ability to control parasite densities below the pyrogenic threshold to P. vivax, but not to P. falciparum, in the 2^nd and 3^rd year of life. The ability to relapse from long-lasting liver-stages restricts the seasonal variation in prevalence of P. vivax infections.

Comparison of Plasmodium falciparum allelic frequency distribution in different endemic settings by high-resolution genotyping

Background

The diversity of genotyping markers of Plasmodium falciparum depends on transmission intensity. It has been reported that the diversity of the merozoite surface protein 2 (msp2) is greater in areas of high compared to low endemicity, however, results for msp1 were inconsistent. These previous reports relied on low resolution genotyping techniques.

Methods

In the present study, a high-resolution capillary electrophoresis-based technique was applied to genotype samples from areas of different endemicity in Papua New Guinea and Tanzania. For both endemic settings, the diversity of msp1 and msp2 was investigated; the mean multiplicity of infection (MOI) and the F_ST values were determined to investigate whether more accurate sizing generates different results.

Results and Conclusion

The results of the present study confirmed previous reports of a higher mean MOI for both marker genes and increased genetic diversity in areas of higher endemicity as estimated by the total number of distinct alleles for msp2. For msp1 a minor increase in diversity was observed. Measures of between population variance in allele frequencies (F_ST) indicated little genetic differentiation for both marker genes between the two populations from different endemic settings. MOI adjusted for the probability of multiple infections sharing the same allele was estimated by using the msp2 allele frequency distribution and the distribution of observed numbers of concurrent infections. For the high-resolution typing technique applied in this study, this adjustment made little difference to the estimated mean MOI compared to the observed mean MOI.

Three different Plasmodium species show similar patterns of clinical tolerance of malaria infection

Background

In areas where malaria endemicity is high, many people harbour blood stage parasites without acute febrile illness, complicating the estimation of disease burden from infection data. For Plasmodium falciparum the density of parasitaemia that can be tolerated is low in the youngest children, but reaches a maximum in the age groups at highest risk of infection. There is little data on the age dependence of tolerance in other species of human malaria.

Methods

Parasite densities measured in 24,386 presumptive malaria cases at two local health centres in the Wosera area of Papua New Guinea were compared with the distributions of parasite densities recorded in community surveys in the same area. We then analyse the proportions of cases attributable to each of Plasmodium falciparum, P. vivax, and P. malariae as functions of parasite density and age using a latent class model. These attributable fractions are then used to compute the incidence of attributable disease.

Results

Overall 33.3%, 6.1%, and 0.1% of the presumptive cases were attributable to P. falciparum, P. vivax, and P. malariae respectively. The incidence of attributable disease and parasite density broadly follow similar age patterns. The logarithm of the incidence of acute illness is approximately proportion to the logarithm of the parasite density for all three malaria species, with little age variation in the relationship for P. vivax or P. malariae. P. falciparum shows more age variation in disease incidence at given levels of parasitaemia than the other species.

Conclusion

The similarities between Plasmodium species in the relationships between parasite density and risk of attributable disease are compatible with the hypothesis that pan-specific mechanisms may regulate tolerance to different human Plasmodia. A straightforward mathematical expression might be used to project disease burden from parasite density distributions assessed in community-based parasitological surveys.

High sensitivity detection of Plasmodium species reveals positive correlations between infections of different species, shifts in age distribution and reduced local variation in Papua New Guinea

Background

When diagnosed by standard light microscopy (LM), malaria prevalence can vary significantly between sites, even at local scale, and mixed species infections are consistently less common than expect in areas co-endemic for Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium malariae. The development of a high-throughput molecular species diagnostic assay now enables routine PCR-based surveillance of malaria infections in large field and intervention studies, and improves resolution of species distribution within and between communities.

Methods

This study reports differences in the prevalence of infections with all four human malarial species and of mixed infections as diagnosed by LM and post-PCR ligase detection reaction – fluorescent microsphere (LDR-FMA) assay in 15 villages in the central Sepik area of Papua New Guinea.

Results

Significantly higher rates of infection by P. falciparum, P. vivax, P. malariae and Plasmodium ovale were observed in LDR-FMA compared to LM diagnosis (p < 0.001). Increases were particularly pronounced for P. malariae (3.9% vs 13.4%) and P. ovale (0.0% vs 4.8%). In contrast to LM diagnosis, which suggested a significant deficit of mixed species infections, a significant excess of mixed infections over expectation was detected by LDR-FMA (p < 0.001). Age of peak prevalence shifted to older age groups in LDR-FMA diagnosed infections for P. falciparum (LM: 7–9 yrs 47.5%, LDR-FMA: 10–19 yrs 74.2%) and P. vivax (LM: 4–6 yrs 24.2%, LDR-FMA: 7–9 yrs 50.9%) but not P. malariae infections (10–19 yrs, LM: 7.7% LDR-FMA: 21.6%). Significant geographical variation in prevalence was found for all species (except for LM-diagnosed P. falciparum), with the extent of this variation greater in LDR-FMA than LM diagnosed infections (overall, 84.4% vs. 37.6%). Insecticide-treated bednet (ITN) coverage was also the dominant factor linked to geographical differences in Plasmodium species infection prevalence explaining between 60.6% – 74.5% of this variation for LDR-FMA and 81.8% – 90.0% for LM (except P. falciparum), respectively.

Conclusion

The present study demonstrates that application of molecular diagnosis reveals patterns of malaria risk that are significantly different from those obtained by standard LM. Results provide insight relevant to design of malaria control and eradication strategies.

Risk factors of visceral leishmaniasis in East Africa: a case-control study in Pokot territory of Kenya and Uganda

BACKGROUND

In East Africa, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is endemic in parts of Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya and Uganda. It is caused by Leishmania donovani and transmitted by the sandfly vector Phlebotomus martini. In the Pokot focus, reaching from western Kenya into eastern Uganda, formulation of a prevention strategy has been hindered by the lack of knowledge on VL risk factors as well as by lack of support from health sector donors. The present study was conducted to establish the necessary evidence-base and to stimulate interest in supporting the control of this neglected tropical disease in Uganda and Kenya.

METHODS

A case-control study was carried out from June to December 2006. Cases were recruited at Amudat hospital, Nakapiripirit district, Uganda, after clinical and parasitological confirmation of symptomatic VL infection. Controls were individuals that tested negative using a rK39 antigen-based dipstick, which were recruited at random from the same communities as the cases. Data were analysed using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

Ninety-three cases and 226 controls were recruited into the study. Multivariate analysis identified low socio-economic status and treating livestock with insecticide as risk factors for VL. Sleeping near animals, owning a mosquito net and knowing about VL symptoms were associated with a reduced risk of VL.

CONCLUSIONS

VL affects the poorest of the poor of the Pokot tribe. Distribution of insecticide-treated mosquito nets combined with dissemination of culturally appropriate behaviour-change education is likely to be an effective prevention strategy.

Standardizing estimates of the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate

Background

The Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) is a commonly reported index of malaria transmission intensity. PfPR rises after birth to a plateau before declining in older children and adults. Studies of populations with different age ranges generally report average PfPR, so age is an important source of heterogeneity in reported PfPR data. This confounds simple comparisons of PfPR surveys conducted at different times or places.

Methods

Several algorithms for standardizing PfPR were developed using 21 studies that stratify in detail PfPR by age. An additional 121 studies were found that recorded PfPR from the same population over at least two different age ranges; these paired estimates were used to evaluate these algorithms. The best algorithm was judged to be the one that described most of the variance when converting the PfPR pairs from one age-range to another.

Results

The analysis suggests that the relationship between PfPR and age is predictable across the observed range of malaria endemicity. PfPR reaches a peak after about two years and remains fairly constant in older children until age ten before declining throughout adolescence and adulthood. The PfPR pairs were poorly correlated; using one to predict the other would explain only 5% of the total variance. By contrast, the PfPR predicted by the best algorithm explained 72% of the variance.

Conclusion

The PfPR in older children is useful for standardization because it has good biological, epidemiological and statistical properties. It is also historically consistent with the classical categories of hypoendemic, mesoendemic and hyperendemic malaria. This algorithm provides a reliable method for standardizing PfPR for the purposes of comparing studies and mapping malaria endemicity. The scripts for doing so are freely available to all.

Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium ovale--the "bashful" malaria parasites

Although Plasmodium malariae was first described as an infectious disease of humans by Golgi in 1886 and Plasmodium ovale identified by Stevens in 1922, there are still large gaps in our knowledge of the importance of these infections as causes of malaria in different parts of the world. They have traditionally been thought of as mild illnesses that are caused by rare and, in case of P. ovale, short-lived parasites. However, recent advances in sensitive PCR diagnosis are causing a re-evaluation of this assumption. Low-level infection seems to be common across malaria-endemic areas, often as complex mixed infections. The potential interactions of P. malariae and P. ovale with Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax might explain some basic questions of malaria epidemiology, and understanding these interactions could have an important influence on the deployment of interventions such as malaria vaccines.

Community-randomized trial of lambdacyhalothrin-treated hammock nets for malaria control in Yanomami communities in the Amazon region of Venezuela

We conducted a community-randomized controlled trial in an area of moderate malaria transmission in the Amazon region, southern Venezuela, home of the Yanomami indigenous ethnic group. The aim was to compare the malaria incidence rate in villages with lambdacyhalothrin-treated hammock nets (ITHN) or with placebo-treated hammock nets (PTHN). In both arms of the study, intensive surveillance for early case detection was maintained and prompt malaria treatment was administered. Baseline data were collected before the intervention and a population of around 924 Yanomami was followed for 2 years. Despite the recent introduction of nets in the Yanomami villages and the adverse natural conditions in the area, the nets were accepted enthusiastically by the study population, used conscientiously and looked after carefully. The malaria incidence rate per thousand person-years at risk was 114.6 in the IHTN group and 186.8 in the PTHN group. The adjusted rate ratios indicated that ITHN prevent 56% [IRR: 0.44, 95% confidence interval (CI): 52-59%] of new malaria cases. ITHN reduced the prevalence of parasitaemia by 83% [relative risks (RR): 0.17, 95% CI: 47-100%], according to a cross-sectional survey carried out during the high transmission season. The prevalence of splenomegaly and anaemia was too low to detect any possible reduction as a result of ITHN. The main conclusion of the present study is that ITHN can reduce malaria incidence in the area and it is the most feasible method for malaria control in a forested area where indigenous villages are scattered over a large territory. This is the first community-level epidemiological trial to show that ITHN are highly effective against malaria transmitted by Anopheles darlingi.

Mathematical modeling of the impact of malaria vaccines on the clinical epidemiology and natural history of Plasmodium falciparum malaria: Overview

We report a major project to develop integrated mathematical models for predicting the epidemiologic and economic effects of malaria vaccines both at the individual and population level. The project has developed models of the within-host dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum that have been fitted to parasite density profiles from malaria therapy patients, and simulations of P. falciparum epidemiology fitted to field malariologic datasets from a large ensemble of settings across Africa. The models provide a unique platform for predicting both the short- and long-term effects of malaria vaccines on the burden of disease, allowing for the temporal dynamics of effects on immunity and transmission. We discuss how the models can be used to obtain robust cost-effectiveness estimates for a wide range of malaria vaccines and vaccination delivery strategies in different eco-epidemiologic settings. This paper outlines for a non-mathematical audience the approach we have taken and its underlying rationale.

An epidemiologic model of the incidence of acute illness in Plasmodium falciparum malaria

We propose a stochastic model for simulating malaria tolerance. The model relates the probability of a clinical attack of malaria to the peripheral parasite densities via a pyrogenic threshold that itself responds dynamically to the parasite load. The parameters of the model have been estimated by fitting it to the relationship between incidence of clinical episodes and the entomologic inoculation rate, using age-specific incidence data from two villages in Senegal and one village in Tanzania. The model reproduces the shifts in age distribution of clinical episodes associated with variation in transmission intensity, and in keeping with the data, predicts a slightly higher lifetime number of episodes in the mesoendemic village of Ndiop than in the holoendemic village of Dielmo. This model provides a parsimonious explanation of counter-intuitive relationships between the overall incidence of clinical malaria and transmission intensity. In contrast to the theory of endemic stability, recently proposed to apply to P. falciparum, it does not assume any intrinsic age dependence in the outcome of infection. This model can be used to explore the consequences for predictions of the effects of different anti-malarial interventions on the incidence of clinical malaria.

Which delivery systems reach the poor? A review of equity of coverage of ever-treated nets, never-treated nets, and immunisation to reduce child mortality in Africa

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and childhood vaccination are two of the most powerful interventions available to prevent childhood mortality in Africa, but ITN coverage is still very low. Current debates about how to increase ITN coverage are concerned with the roles of different supply and delivery systems, in particular whether or not commercial net markets have any useful role. Here, we review data available on coverage and equity of coverage of three interventions to prevent childhood mortality. We compiled and analysed data from nationally representative surveys in 26 African countries to compare equity of coverage of (1) the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI), (2) any net, (3) ever-treated nets (ie, ITNs), and (4) never-treated nets (ie, untreated nets; UTNs). We assumed that ever-treated net coverage mostly reflects the activities of public-health programmes and projects, and that never-treated net coverage mostly reflects the activity of local unsubsidised commercial markets. We discuss the validity, limitations, and possible biases of these assumptions. We estimate that 87% of the 8.4 million children protected by nets used UTNs. We used the concentration index (CI) to assess equity of coverage of the interventions. The data shows that never-treated net coverage is surprisingly equitable: overall, and despite substantial regional variations, it is comparable in equity to EPI (median CI(UTN)=0.166, CI(EPI)=0.075; p=0.3). In almost all countries, coverage of ITNs is strongly concentrated in the least poor households, and significantly more inequitable than both UTNs (median CI(ITN)=0.435, mean CI(UTN)=0.158; p<0.001) and EPI (median CI(ITN)=0.435, CI(EPI)=0.075; p<0.001). These results suggest that the public-health value of commercial net markets has been greatly underestimated, and that these markets have so far contributed more to equitable and sustainable coverage of mosquito nets, and hence to the prevention of malaria in Africa, than have the ITNs delivered by public-health systems and projects.

Prevention of Relapse after Chemotherapy in a Chronic Intracellular Infection: Mechanisms in Experimental Visceral Leishmaniasis

In visceral leishmaniasis, chemotherapy probably seldom eradicates all parasites in tissue macrophages; nevertheless, most T cell-intact patients show long-lasting clinical cure after treatment despite residual intracellular infection. To characterize prevention of posttreatment relapse, amphotericin B was used to kill approximately 90-95% of Leishmania donovani in livers of mice deficient in mechanisms of acquired antileishmanial resistance. Recrudescence subsequently developed 1) in animals deficient in both CD4 and CD8 T cells as well as CD40L-mediated T cell costimulation, but not in a) CD4 or CD8 cells alone, b) NK cell lytic activity, or c) ICAM-1-recruited monocytes; and 2) in mice deficient in IFN-gamma, but not in the IFN-gamma-inducing cytokines, a) IL-12, b) IL-12 and IL-23, or c) IL-18. Posttreatment recrudescence also did not develop in animals deficient in macrophage phagocyte NADPH oxidase (phox) or inducible NO synthase (iNOS) alone or, surprisingly, in those deficient in both phox and iNOS. Therefore, regulation of the intracellular replication of residual Leishmania donovani that escape chemotherapy evolves to a host mechanism distinguishable from initial acquired resistance at the T cell, cytokine, and macrophage levels. Posttreatment, either CD8 or CD4 cells can direct the response, IL-12 is not required, and iNOS and phox, the activated macrophage's primary IFN-gamma-inducible leishmanicidal pathways, both become dispensable.

The practical importance of permanent and semipermanent habitats for controlling aquatic stages of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes: operational observations from a rural town in western Kenya

Control of aquatic-stage Anopheles is one of the oldest and most historically successful interventions to prevent malaria, but it has seen little application in Africa. Consequently, the ecology of immature afrotropical Anopheles has received insufficient attention. We therefore examined the population dynamics of African anopheline and culicine mosquitoes using operationally practicable techniques to examine the relative importance and availability of different larval habitats in an area of perennial malaria transmission in preparation for a pilot-scale larval control programme. The study was conducted in Mbita, a rural town on the shores of Lake Victoria in Western Kenya, over 20 months. Weekly larval surveys were conducted to identify the availability of stagnant water, habitat characteristics and larval densities. Adult mosquitoes were collected indoors at fortnightly intervals. Availability of aquatic habitats and abundance of mosquito larvae were directly correlated with rainfall. Adult mosquito densities followed similar patterns but with a time-lag of approximately 1 month. About 70% of all available habitats were man-made, half of them representing cement-lined pits. On average, 67% of all aquatic habitats on a given sampling date were colonized by Anopheles larvae, of which all identified morphologically were A. gambiae sensu lato. Natural and artificial habitats were equally productive over the study period and larval densities were positively correlated with presence of tufts of low vegetation and negatively with non-matted algal content. The permanence of a habitat had no significant influence on larval productivity. We conclude that A. gambiae is broadly distributed across a variety of habitat types, regardless of permanence. All potential breeding sites need to be considered as sources of malaria risk at any time of the year and exhaustively targeted in any larval control intervention.

EBV specific antibody-based and DNA-based assays in serologic diagnosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma

We assessed 5 EBV specific assays for their capacity to effect serologic diagnosis of suspected NPC. The assays were the immunofluorescent assays, VCA IgA and EA IgA, the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays specific for EBNA 1 IgA or zta IgG and an EBV DNA assay. Serum samples were taken from 218 symptomatic NPC patients presenting consecutively at a public hospital in Hong Kong, 51 of whom were subsequently diagnosed as having NPC; 4 had EBV-associated lung cancer with similar serology as NPC. The remaining patients included 23 who had other cancers and 140 who had other diseases. Objectives of serodiagnosis under such clinical settings, therefore, are to both exclude and predict a diagnosis of NPC. None of the assays individually can meet both requirements adequately, however. The difficulty was best overcome by combining EBNA 1 IgA and zta IgG. It was shown that 68.3% of the patients gave a confirmed test results, negative or positive, by both tests. A confirmed negative result was associated with a negative predictive value of 99.1%, providing a clear indication to exclude a diagnosis of NPC; a confirmed positive result was associated with a positive predictive value of 86.8%, providing a clear indication to proceed with diagnostic work-up of NPC. The remaining patients gave equivocal test results, being positive for one or the other test, which were associated with a positive predictive value of 43.3% and 24.2%, respectively.

Interleukin-10 (IL-10) in experimental visceral leishmaniasis and IL-10 receptor blockade as immunotherapy

Interleukin-10 (IL-10) is thought to promote intracellular infection, including human visceral leishmaniasis, by disabling Th1 cell-type responses and/or deactivating parasitized tissue macrophages. To develop a rationale for IL-10 inhibition as treatment in visceral infection, Th1 cytokine-driven responses were characterized in Leishmania donovani-infected BALB/c mice in which IL-10 was absent or overexpressed or its receptor (IL-10R) was blockaded. IL-10 knockout and normal mice treated prophylactically with anti-IL-10R demonstrated accelerated granuloma assembly and rapid parasite killing without untoward tissue inflammation; IL-12 and gamma interferon mRNA expression, inducible nitric oxide synthase reactivity, and responsiveness to antimony chemotherapy were also enhanced in knockout mice. In IL-10 transgenic mice, parasite replication was unrestrained, and except for antimony responsiveness, measured Th1 cell-dependent events were all initially impaired. Despite subsequent granuloma assembly, high-level infection persisted, and antimony-treated transgenic mice also relapsed. In normal mice with established infection, anti-IL-10R treatment was remarkably active, inducing near-cure by itself and synergism with antimony. IL-10's deactivating effects regulate outcome in experimental visceral leishmaniasis, and IL-10R blockade represents a potential immuno- and/or immunochemotherapeutic approach in this infection.

Impact of untreated bednets on prevalence of Wuchereria bancrofti transmitted by Anopheles farauti in Papua New Guinea

Despite the growing evidence that insecticide-treated mosquito nets reduce malaria morbidity and mortality in a variety of epidemiological conditions, their value against lymphatic filariasis infection and disease is yet to be established. The impact of untreated bednets on the prevalence of Wuchereria bancrofti (Cobbold) (Nematoda: Filarioidea) infection and disease was investigated on Bagabag island in Papua New Guinea, where both malaria and filariasis are transmitted by the same vector mosquitoes of the Anopheles punctulatus Dönitz group (Diptera: Culicidae). Community-wide surveys were conducted recording demographic characteristics including bednet usage. Physical examinations for hydrocoele and lymphoedema were performed and blood samples assessed for filarial and malaria parasites. Mosquitoes were sampled using the all-night landing catch method and individually dissected to determine W. bancrofti infection and infective rates. Bednet usage among residents was 61% and the mean age of users (25.6 years) was similar to non-users (22.5 years). Anopheles farauti Laveran was the only species were found to contain filarial larvae: 2.7% infected (all stages), 0.5% infective (L3). The overall W. bancrofti microfilaraemia and antigenaemia rates were 28.5% and 53.1%, respectively. Bednet users had lower prevalence of W. bancrofti microfilaraemia, antigenaemia and hydrocoele rates than non-users. In comparison, untreated bednets had no effect on the prevalence and intensity of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax infections. The impact of bednet usage on rates of microfilaraemia and antigenaemia remained significant even when confounding factors such as age, location and sex were taken into account, suggesting that untreated bednets protect against W. bancrofti infection.

Assessing the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma on the basis of EBV antibody spectrum

We have evaluated the performance of 3 new EBV ELISA for the diagnosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). The tests were specific for EBNA 1 IgA, EBNA 1 IgG and zta IgG, respectively. Their distinct antigenic specificity permits these assays to be used in concert in an approach that differentiates patients and apparently healthy subjects on the basis of their antibody spectrum. By so exploiting a distinguishing feature of NPC first described by Lloyd Olds and his group (Olds et al., Proc Nat Acad Sci 1966;56:1699-1704) [corrected] that the patients sustain high levels of a broad spectrum of serum EBV antibodies, this approach achieved a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 93%, surpassing the performance of each of these assays individually. The enhanced performance is especially useful in population screening. It was shown that relative risk of NPC sustained by apparently healthy subjects residing in a high incidence area for NPC in the Pearl River estuary in Southern China may vary according to EBV antibody spectrum. The risk of the cancer was markedly reduced with odds ratios of 0.009 for 59% of those who had low level of all 3 antibodies. The risk was increased as antibody spectrum broadens and the risk was the highest with an odds ratio of 138 for 0.4% of those who had high levels of all 3 antibodies. Thus, EBV antibody spectrum may serve to guide follow-up measures for early detection of the cancer and/or risk counseling according to level of the risk of the cancer sustained by the screened individuals.

Mosquito nets for the elderly?

Nine-year follow-up (ending 1999) of survival of 3738 individuals in a malaria-endemic area of Papua New Guinea found that the use of mosquito nets was associated with a large reduction in mortality in people aged > or = 40 years as well as in children aged < 5 years. There may be substantial benefits of malaria transmission reduction for older people, that have been overlooked in public health programmes and burden of disease calculations.