Epidemiological Modelling for Monitoring and Evaluation of Lymphatic Filariasis Control

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging.

METHODS

We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment.

RESULTS

Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.

Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030.

METHODS

Here we used a novel approach to combine historical geo-spatial disease prevalence maps of LF in Ethiopia with 3 contemporary disease transmission models to project trends in infection under different intervention scenarios at subnational level.

RESULTS

Our findings show that local context, particularly the coverage of interventions, is an important determinant for the success of control and elimination programmes. Furthermore, although current strategies seem sufficient to achieve LF elimination by 2030, some areas may benefit from the implementation of alternative strategies, such as using enhanced coverage or increased frequency, to accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of geospatial disease prevalence maps of LF with transmission models and intervention histories enables the projection of trends in infection at the subnational level under different control scenarios in Ethiopia. This approach, which adapts transmission models to local settings, may be useful to inform the design of optimal interventions at the subnational level in other LF endemic regions.

Sensitivity analysis and parameters estimation for the transmission of lymphatic filariasis

Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease which poses public health concern and socio-economic challenges in developing and low-income countries. In this paper, we formulate a deterministic mathematical model for transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis to generate data by white noise and use least square method to estimate parameter values. The validity of estimated parameter values is tested by Gaussian distribution method. The residuals of model outputs are normally distributed and hence can be used to study the dynamics of Lymphatic filariasis. After deriving the basic reproduction number, R 0 by the next generation matrix approach, the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient is employed to explore which parameters significantly affect and most influential to the model outputs. The analysis for equilibrium states shows that the Lymphatic free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less a unity and endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R 0 ≥ 1 . The findings reveal that rate of human infection, recruitment rate of mosquitoes increase the average new infections for Lymphatic filariasis. Moreover, asymptomatic individuals contribute significantly in the transmission of Lymphatic filariasis.

Evaluating elimination thresholds and stopping criteria for interventions against the vector-borne macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis, using mathematical modelling

We leveraged the ability of EPIFIL transmission models fit to field data to evaluate the use of the WHO Transmission Assessment Survey (TAS) for supporting Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) intervention stopping decisions. Our results indicate that understanding the underlying parasite extinction dynamics, particularly the protracted transient dynamics involved in shifts to the extinct state, is crucial for understanding the impacts of using TAS for determining the achievement of LF elimination. These findings warn that employing stopping criteria set for operational purposes, as employed in the TAS strategy, without a full consideration of the dynamics of extinction could seriously undermine the goal of achieving global LF elimination.

Modeling the population-level impact of treatment on COVID-19 disease and SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Different COVID-19 treatment candidates are under development, and some are becoming available including two promising drugs from Merck and Pfizer. This study provides conceptual frameworks for the effects of three types of treatments, both therapeutic and prophylactic, and to investigate their population-level impact, to inform drug development, licensure, decision-making, and implementation. Different drug efficacies were assessed using an age-structured mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression, with application to the United States as an illustrative example. Severe and critical infection treatment reduces progression to COVID-19 severe and critical disease and death with small number of treatments needed to avert one disease or death. Post-exposure prophylaxis treatment had a large impact on flattening the epidemic curve, with large reductions in infection, disease, and death, but the impact was strongly age dependent. Pre-exposure prophylaxis treatment had the best impact and effectiveness, with immense reductions in infection, disease, and death, driven by the robust control of infection transmission. Effectiveness of both pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxis treatments was disproportionally larger when a larger segment of the population was targeted than a specific age group. Additional downstream potential effects of treatment, beyond the primary outcome, enhance the population-level impact of both treatments. COVID-19 treatments are an important modality in controlling SARS-CoV-2 disease burden. Different types of treatment act synergistically for a larger impact, for these treatments and vaccination.

Efficacy and Safety of a Single Dose of Ivermectin, Diethylcarbamazine, and Albendazole for Treatment of Lymphatic Filariasis in Côte d'Ivoire: An Open-label Randomized Controlled Trial

Background

Improved drug regimens are needed to accelerate elimination of lymphatic filariasis in Africa. This study determined whether a single co-administered dose of ivermectin plus diethylcarbamazine plus albendazole [IDA] is noninferior to standard 3 annual doses of ivermectin plus albendazole (IA) used in many LF-endemic areas of Africa.

Methods

Treatment-naive adults with Wuchereria bancrofti microfilaremia in Côte d’Ivoire were randomized to receive a single dose of IDA (n = 43) or 3 annual doses of IA (n = 52) in an open-label, single-blinded trial. The primary endpoint was the proportion of participants who were microfilaria (Mf) negative at 36 months. Secondary endpoints were Mf clearance at 6, 12, and 24 months; inactivation of adult worm nests; and safety.

Results

At 36 months posttreatment with IDA, 18/33 (55%; 95% CI, 38–72%) cleared Mf versus 33/42 (79%; 67–91%) with IA (P = .045). At 6 and 12 months IDA was superior to IA in clearing Mf (89% [77–99%] and 71% [56–85%]), respectively, versus 34% (20–48%) and 26% (14–42%) (P < .001). IDA was equivalent to IA at 24 months (61% [45–77%] vs 54% [38–72%]; P = .53). IDA was superior to IA for inactivating adult worms at all time points. Both treatments were well tolerated, and there were no serious adverse events.

Conclusions

A single dose of IDA was superior to 2 doses of IA in reducing the overall Mf burden by 24 months. Reinfection may have contributed to the lack of sustained clearance of Mf with IDA.

Clinical Trials Registration

NCT02974049.

Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses

This study aims to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development/licensure/decision-making/implementation, using mathematical modeling, by determining key preferred vaccine product characteristics and associated population-level impacts of a vaccine eliciting long-term protection. A prophylactic vaccine with efficacy against acquisition (VE_S) ≥70% can eliminate the infection. A vaccine with VE_S <70% may still control the infection if it reduces infectiousness or infection duration among those vaccinated who acquire the infection, if it is supplemented with <20% reduction in contact rate, or if it is complemented with herd-immunity. At VE_S of 50%, the number of vaccinated persons needed to avert one infection is 2.4, and the number is 25.5 to avert one severe disease case, 33.2 to avert one critical disease case, and 65.1 to avert one death. The probability of a major outbreak is zero at VE_S ≥70% regardless of the number of virus introductions. However, an increase in social contact rate among those vaccinated (behavior compensation) can undermine vaccine impact. In addition to the reduction in infection acquisition, developers should assess the natural history and disease progression outcomes when evaluating vaccine impact.

Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses

This study aims to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development/licensure/decision-making/implementation, using mathematical modeling, by determining key preferred vaccine product characteristics and associated population-level impacts of a vaccine eliciting long-term protection. A prophylactic vaccine with efficacy against acquisition (VES) ≥70% can eliminate the infection. A vaccine with VES <70% may still control the infection if it reduces infectiousness or infection duration among those vaccinated who acquire the infection, if it is supplemented with <20% reduction in contact rate, or if it is complemented with herd-immunity. At VES of 50%, the number of vaccinated persons needed to avert one infection is 2.4, and the number is 25.5 to avert one severe disease case, 33.2 to avert one critical disease case, and 65.1 to avert one death. The probability of a major outbreak is zero at VES ≥70% regardless of the number of virus introductions. However, an increase in social contact rate among those vaccinated (behavior compensation) can undermine vaccine impact. In addition to the reduction in infection acquisition, developers should assess the natural history and disease progression outcomes when evaluating vaccine impact.

Predicting lymphatic filariasis elimination in data-limited settings: A reconstructive computational framework for combining data generation and model discovery

Although there is increasing importance placed on the use of mathematical models for the effective design and management of long-term parasite elimination, it is becoming clear that transmission models are most useful when they reflect the processes pertaining to local infection dynamics as opposed to generalized dynamics. Such localized models must also be developed even when the data required for characterizing local transmission processes are limited or incomplete, as is often the case for neglected tropical diseases, including the disease system studied in this work, viz. lymphatic filariasis (LF). Here, we draw on progress made in the field of computational knowledge discovery to present a reconstructive simulation framework that addresses these challenges by facilitating the discovery of both data and models concurrently in areas where we have insufficient observational data. Using available data from eight sites from Nigeria and elsewhere, we demonstrate that our data-model discovery system is able to estimate local transmission models and missing pre-control infection information using generalized knowledge of filarial transmission dynamics, monitoring survey data, and details of historical interventions. Forecasts of the impacts of interventions carried out in each site made by the models estimated using the reconstructed baseline data matched temporal infection observations and provided useful information regarding when transmission interruption is likely to have occurred. Assessments of elimination and resurgence probabilities based on the models also suggest a protective effect of vector control against the reemergence of LF transmission after stopping drug treatments. The reconstructive computational framework for model and data discovery developed here highlights how coupling models with available data can generate new knowledge about complex, data-limited systems, and support the effective management of disease programs in the face of critical data gaps.

As modelling becomes commonly used in the design and evaluation of parasite elimination programs, the need for well-defined models and datasets describing the nature of transmission processes in local settings is becoming pronounced. For many neglected tropical diseases, however, data for site-specific model identification are typically sparse or incomplete. In this study, we present a new data-model computational discovery system that couples data-assimilation methods based on existing monitoring survey data with model-generated data about baseline conditions to discover the local transmission models required for simulating the impacts of interventions in typical endemic locations for the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF). Using data from eight study sites in Nigeria and elsewhere, we show that our reconstructive computational framework is able to combine information contained within partially-available site-specific monitoring data with knowledge of parasite transmission dynamics embedded in process-based models to generate the missing data required for inducing reliable locally applicable LF models. We also show that the models so discovered are able to generate the intervention forecasts required for supporting management-relevant decisions in parasite elimination.

A Trial of a Triple-Drug Treatment for Lymphatic Filariasis

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization has targeted lymphatic filariasis for global elimination by 2020 with a strategy of mass drug administration. This trial tested whether a single dose of a three-drug regimen of ivermectin plus diethylcarbamazine plus albendazole results in a greater sustained clearance of microfilariae than a single dose of a two-drug regimen of diethylcarbamazine plus albendazole and is noninferior to the two-drug regimen administered once a year for 3 years.

METHODS

In a randomized, controlled trial involving adults from Papua New Guinea with Wuchereria bancrofti microfilaremia, we assigned 182 participants to receive a single dose of the three-drug regimen (60 participants), a single dose of the two-drug regimen (61 participants), or the two-drug regimen once a year for 3 years (61 participants). Clearance of microfilariae from the blood was measured at 12, 24, and 36 months after trial initiation.

RESULTS

The three-drug regimen cleared microfilaremia in 55 of 57 participants (96%) at 12 months, in 52 of 54 participants (96%) at 24 months, and in 55 of 57 participants (96%) at 36 months. A single dose of the two-drug regimen cleared microfilaremia in 18 of 56 participants (32%) at 12 months, in 31 of 55 participants (56%) at 24 months, and in 43 of 52 participants (83%) at 36 months (P=0.02 for the three-drug regimen vs. a single dose of the two-drug regimen at 36 months). The two-drug regimen administered once a year for 3 years cleared microfilaremia in 20 of 59 participants (34%) at 12 months, in 42 of 56 participants (75%) at 24 months, and in 51 of 52 participants (98%) at 36 months (P=0.004 for noninferiority of the three-drug regimen vs. the two-drug regimen administered once a year for 3 years at 36 months). Moderate adverse events were more common in the group that received the three-drug regimen than in the combined two-drug-regimen groups (27% vs. 5%, P<0.001). There were no serious adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

The three-drug regimen induced clearance of microfilariae from the blood for 3 years in almost all participants who received the treatment and was superior to the two-drug regimen administered once and noninferior to the two-drug regimen administered once a year for 3 years. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01975441 .).

Substantiating freedom from parasitic infection by combining transmission model predictions with disease surveys

Stopping interventions is a critical decision for parasite elimination programmes. Quantifying the probability that elimination has occurred due to interventions can be facilitated by combining infection status information from parasitological surveys with extinction thresholds predicted by parasite transmission models. Here we demonstrate how the integrated use of these two pieces of information derived from infection monitoring data can be used to develop an analytic framework for guiding the making of defensible decisions to stop interventions. We present a computational tool to perform these probability calculations and demonstrate its practical utility for supporting intervention cessation decisions by applying the framework to infection data from programmes aiming to eliminate onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis in Uganda and Nigeria, respectively. We highlight a possible method for validating the results in the field, and discuss further refinements and extensions required to deploy this predictive tool for guiding decision making by programme managers.

The decision when to stop an intervention is a critical component of parasite elimination programmes, but reliance on surveillance data alone can be inaccurate. Here, Michael et al. combine parasite transmission model predictions with disease survey data to more reliably determine when interventions can be stopped.

A surveillance system for lymphatic filariasis after its elimination in Sri Lanka

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) has been declared eliminated in Sri Lanka in September 2016. To maintain elimination status, a surveillance system to detect hidden endemic foci or LF resurgence is of highest priority. In this paper, we have reported an investigation of LF transmission in Trincomalee district where a surveillance program was not carried out due to 30 years of civil unrest. Proposed surveillance system included, measurement of anti-filarial IgG4 in urine of schoolchildren in areas where LF transmission could exist and assessment of circulating filarial antigen (CFA) and microfilaria (mf) in all urine antibody positive schoolchildren, their family members and 10-15 neighbours of each urine antibody positive household. Spatial distribution of the anti-filarial antibody titers in urine in a high antibody suspected area was analyzed using GPS logger data. Among 2301 school children from 11 schools studied, 41 (1.8%) urine antibody positives were found. The antibody positive rates of the schools ranged between 0 and 4.0%. Nine of the 630 (1.4%) examined became positive for CFA but were negative for mf. Although there were no mf positives, positive CFA and antibody results indicated the existence of Wuchereria bancrofti in Trincomalee. Highest antibody titres in an area correlated with the prevalences of urine antibodies and CFA. Spatial analysis showed LF transmission foci. Therefore, a combination of the non-invasive methods, urine ELISA and GPS mapping, will be a new effective surveillance system to identify hidden LF transmission foci.

Quantifying the value of surveillance data for improving model predictions of lymphatic filariasis elimination

Background

Mathematical models are increasingly being used to evaluate strategies aiming to achieve the control or elimination of parasitic diseases. Recently, owing to growing realization that process-oriented models are useful for ecological forecasts only if the biological processes are well defined, attention has focused on data assimilation as a means to improve the predictive performance of these models.

Methodology and principal findings

We report on the development of an analytical framework to quantify the relative values of various longitudinal infection surveillance data collected in field sites undergoing mass drug administrations (MDAs) for calibrating three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and for improving their predictions of the required durations of drug interventions to achieve parasite elimination in endemic populations. The relative information contribution of site-specific data collected at the time points proposed by the WHO monitoring framework was evaluated using model-data updating procedures, and via calculations of the Shannon information index and weighted variances from the probability distributions of the estimated timelines to parasite extinction made by each model. Results show that data-informed models provided more precise forecasts of elimination timelines in each site compared to model-only simulations. Data streams that included year 5 post-MDA microfilariae (mf) survey data, however, reduced each model’s uncertainty most compared to data streams containing only baseline and/or post-MDA 3 or longer-term mf survey data irrespective of MDA coverage, suggesting that data up to this monitoring point may be optimal for informing the present LF models. We show that the improvements observed in the predictive performance of the best data-informed models may be a function of temporal changes in inter-parameter interactions. Such best data-informed models may also produce more accurate predictions of the durations of drug interventions required to achieve parasite elimination.

Significance

Knowledge of relative information contributions of model only versus data-informed models is valuable for improving the usefulness of LF model predictions in management decision making, learning system dynamics, and for supporting the design of parasite monitoring programmes. The present results further pinpoint the crucial need for longitudinal infection surveillance data for enhancing the precision and accuracy of model predictions of the intervention durations required to achieve parasite elimination in an endemic location.

Although parasite transmission models offer powerful tools for predicting the impacts of interventions, there is growing realization that these models can be useful for this purpose only if their governing biological processes are well defined. Recently, model-data assimilation has been applied to address this problem and improve the performance of process-oriented models for ecological forecasting. Here, we developed an analytical framework that allowed the sequential coupling of the three existing lymphatic filariasis (LF) models with longitudinal infection monitoring data collected in field sites undergoing mass drug administrations (MDAs) to examine the relative value of such data for parameterizing these models and for improving their predictions of the required durations of drug interventions to break parasite transmission. We found that data-informed models provided more precise and reliable forecasts of elimination timelines in the study sites compared to model-only predictions, and that data collected up to 5 years post-MDA reduced each model’s predictive uncertainty most. We also found that this improved performance may be intriguingly related to temporal changes in system dynamics. Our results underscore the significance of sequential model-data fusion for enhancing the understanding of LF transmission dynamics, design of surveillance, and generation of reliable model predictions for management decision making.

Review of mathematical models of HSV-2 vaccination: Implications for vaccine development

Development of a vaccine against herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), a life-long sexually-transmitted infection (STI), would be a major step forward in improving global sexual and reproductive health. In this review, we identified published literature of dynamic mathematical models assessing the impact of either prophylactic or therapeutic HSV-2 vaccination at the population level. We compared each study's model structure and assumptions as well as predicted vaccination impact. We examined possible causes of heterogeneity across model predictions, key gaps, and the implications of these findings for future modelling efforts. Only eight modelling studies have assessed the potential public health impact of HSV-2 vaccination, with the majority focusing on impact of prophylactic vaccines. The studies showed that even an imperfect prophylactic HSV-2 vaccine could have an important public health impact on HSV-2 incidence, and could also impact HIV indirectly in high HIV prevalence settings. Therapeutic vaccines also may provide public health benefits, though they have been explored less extensively. However, there was substantial variation in predicted population-level impact for both types of vaccine, reflecting differences in assumptions between model scenarios. Importantly, many models did not account for heterogeneity in infection rates such as by age, sex and sexual activity. Future modelling work to inform decisions on HSV vaccine development and implementation should consider cost-effectiveness, account for additional HSV-2 sequelae such as neonatal transmission, and model greater heterogeneity in infection rates between individuals, more realistic vaccine deployment, and more thorough sensitivity and uncertainty analyses.

Mathematical models used to inform study design or surveillance systems in infectious diseases: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Mathematical models offer the possibility to investigate the infectious disease dynamics over time and may help in informing design of studies. A systematic review was performed in order to determine to what extent mathematical models have been incorporated into the process of planning studies and hence inform study design for infectious diseases transmitted between humans and/or animals.

METHODS

We searched Ovid Medline and two trial registry platforms (Cochrane, WHO) using search terms related to infection, mathematical model, and study design from the earliest dates to October 2016. Eligible publications and registered trials included mathematical models (compartmental, individual-based, or Markov) which were described and used to inform the design of infectious disease studies. We extracted information about the investigated infection, population, model characteristics, and study design.

RESULTS

We identified 28 unique publications but no registered trials. Focusing on compartmental and individual-based models we found 12 observational/surveillance studies and 11 clinical trials. Infections studied were equally animal and human infectious diseases for the observational/surveillance studies, while all but one between humans for clinical trials. The mathematical models were used to inform, amongst other things, the required sample size (n = 16), the statistical power (n = 9), the frequency at which samples should be taken (n = 6), and from whom (n = 6).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the fact that mathematical models have been advocated to be used at the planning stage of studies or surveillance systems, they are used scarcely. With only one exception, the publications described theoretical studies, hence, not being utilised in real studies.

Modeling the Parasitic Filariasis Spread by Mosquito in Periodic Environment

In this paper a mosquito-borne parasitic infection model in periodic environment is considered. Threshold parameter R0 is given by linear next infection operator, which determined the dynamic behaviors of system. We obtain that when R0 < 1, the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable and when R0 > 1 by Poincaré map we obtain that disease is uniformly persistent. Numerical simulations support the results and sensitivity analysis shows effects of parameters on R0, which provided references to seek optimal measures to control the transmission of lymphatic filariasis.

Can Lymphatic Filariasis Be Eliminated by 2020?

Interventions against neglected tropical diseases (NTD), including lymphatic filariasis (LF), scaled up dramatically after the signing of the London Declaration (LD) in 2012. LF is targeted for elimination by 2020, but some countries are considered not on track to meet the 2020 target using the recommended preventive chemotherapy and morbidity management strategies. In this Opinion article we review the prospects for achieving LF elimination by 2020 in the light of the renewed global action against NTDs and the global efforts to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs) by 2030. We conclude that LF can be eliminated by 2020 using cross-sectoral and integrated approaches because of the compound effect of the other SDG activities related to poverty reduction and water and sanitation.

Bayesian calibration of simulation models for supporting management of the elimination of the macroparasitic disease, Lymphatic Filariasis

Background

Mathematical models of parasite transmission can help integrate a large body of information into a consistent framework, which can then be used for gaining mechanistic insights and making predictions. However, uncertainty, spatial variability and complexity, can hamper the use of such models for decision making in parasite management programs.

Methods

We have adapted a Bayesian melding framework for calibrating simulation models to address the need for robust modelling tools that can effectively support management of lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination in diverse endemic settings. We applied this methodology to LF infection and vector biting data from sites across the major LF endemic regions in order to quantify model parameters, and generate reliable predictions of infection dynamics along with credible intervals for modelled output variables. We used the locally calibrated models to estimate breakpoint values for various indicators of parasite transmission, and simulate timelines to parasite extinction as a function of local variations in infection dynamics and breakpoints, and effects of various currently applied and proposed LF intervention strategies.

Results

We demonstrate that as a result of parameter constraining by local data, breakpoint values for all the major indicators of LF transmission varied significantly between the sites investigated. Intervention simulations using the fitted models showed that as a result of heterogeneity in local transmission and extinction dynamics, timelines to parasite elimination in response to the current Mass Drug Administration (MDA) and various proposed MDA with vector control strategies also varied significantly between the study sites. Including vector control, however, markedly reduced the duration of interventions required to achieve elimination as well as decreased the risk of recrudescence following stopping of MDA.

Conclusions

We have demonstrated how a Bayesian data-model assimilation framework can enhance the use of transmission models for supporting reliable decision making in the management of LF elimination. Extending this framework for delivering predictions in settings either lacking or with only sparse data to inform the modelling process, however, will require development of procedures to estimate and use spatio-temporal variations in model parameters and inputs directly, and forms the next stage of the work reported here.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1132-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of Coadministered Diethylcarbamazine, Albendazole, and Ivermectin for Treatment of Bancroftian Filariasis

BACKGROUND

Available treatments for lymphatic filariasis (LF) are limited in their longterm clearance of microfilaria from the blood. The safety and efficacy of a single-dose triple-drug therapy of the antifilarial drugs diethylcarbamazine (DEC), ivermectin (IVM), and albendazole (ALB) for LF are unknown.

METHODS

We performed a pilot study to test the efficacy, safety, and pharmacokinetics of single-dose DEC, IVM, and ALB in Wuchereria bancrofti-infected Papua New Guineans. Adults were randomized into 2 treatment arms, DEC 6 mg/kg + ALB 400 mg (N = 12) or DEC 6 mg/kg + ALB 400 mg + IVM 200 μg/kg (N = 12), and monitored for microfilaria, parasite antigenemia, adverse events (AEs), and serum drug levels.

RESULTS

Triple-drug therapy induced >2-log reductions in microfilaria levels at 36 and 168 hours after treatment compared with approximately 1-log reduction with 2 drugs. All 12 individuals who received 3 drugs were microfilaria negative 1 year after treatment, whereas 11 of 12 individuals in the 2-drug regimen were microfilaria positive. In 6 participants followed 2 years after treatment, those who received 3 drugs remained microfilaria negative. AEs, particularly fever, myalgias, pruritus, and proteinuria/hematuria, occurred in 83% vs 50% of those receiving triple-drug compared to 2-drug treatment respectively (P = .021); all resolved within 7 days after treatment. No serious AEs were observed in either group. There was no significant effect of IVM on DEC or ALB drug levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Triple-drug therapy is safe and more effective than DEC + ALB for Bancroftian filariasis and has the potential to accelerate elimination of lymphatic filariasis.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT01975441.

Modelling lymphatic filariasis transmission and control: modelling frameworks, lessons learned and future directions

Mathematical modelling provides a useful tool for policy making and planning in lymphatic filariasis control programmes, by providing trend forecasts based on sound scientific knowledge and principles. This is now especially true, in view of the ambitious target to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem globally by the year 2020 and the short remaining timeline to achieve this. To meet this target, elimination programmes need to be accelerated, requiring further optimization of strategies and tailoring to local circumstances. Insights from epidemiological transmission models provide a useful basis. Two general models of lymphatic filariasis transmission and control are nowadays in use to support decision-making, namely a population-based deterministic model (EPIFIL) and an individual-based stochastic model (LYMFASIM). Model predictions confirm that lymphatic filariasis transmission can be interrupted by annual mass drug administration (MDA), but this may need to be continued much longer than the initially suggested 4-6 years in areas with high transmission intensity or poor treatment coverage. However, the models have not been validated against longitudinal data describing the impact of MDA programmes. Some critical issues remain to be incorporated in one or both of the models to make predictions on elimination more realistic, including the possible occurrence of systematic noncompliance, the risk of emerging parasite resistance to anthelmintic drugs, and spatial heterogeneities. Rapid advances are needed to maximize the utility of models in decision-making for the ongoing ambitious lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes.

Investing in justice: ethics, evidence, and the eradication investment cases for lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis

It has been suggested that initiatives to eradicate specific communicable diseases need to be informed by eradication investment cases to assess the feasibility, costs, and consequences of eradication compared with elimination or control. A methodological challenge of eradication investment cases is how to account for the ethical importance of the benefits, burdens, and distributions thereof that are salient in people's experiences of the diseases and related interventions but are not assessed in traditional approaches to health and economic evaluation. We have offered a method of ethical analysis grounded in theories of social justice. We have described the method and its philosophical rationale and illustrated its use in application to eradication investment cases for lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis, 2 neglected tropical diseases that are candidates for eradication.

Sequential modelling of the effects of mass drug treatments on anopheline-mediated lymphatic filariasis infection in Papua New Guinea

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) has been targeted by the WHO for global eradication leading to the implementation of large scale intervention programs based on annual mass drug administrations (MDA) worldwide. Recent work has indicated that locality-specific bio-ecological complexities affecting parasite transmission may complicate the prediction of LF extinction endpoints, casting uncertainty on the achievement of this initiative. One source of difficulty is the limited quantity and quality of data used to parameterize models of parasite transmission, implying the important need to update initially-derived parameter values. Sequential analysis of longitudinal data following annual MDAs will also be important to gaining new understanding of the persistence dynamics of LF. Here, we apply a Bayesian statistical-dynamical modelling framework that enables assimilation of information in human infection data recorded from communities in Papua New Guinea that underwent annual MDAs, into our previously developed model of parasite transmission, in order to examine these questions in LF ecology and control.

RESULTS

Biological parameters underlying transmission obtained by fitting the model to longitudinal data remained stable throughout the study period. This enabled us to reliably reconstruct the observed baseline data in each community. Endpoint estimates also showed little variation. However, the updating procedure showed a shift towards higher and less variable values for worm kill but not for any other drug-related parameters. An intriguing finding is that the stability in key biological parameters could be disrupted by a significant reduction in the vector biting rate prevailing in a locality.

CONCLUSIONS

Temporal invariance of biological parameters in the face of intervention perturbations indicates a robust adaptation of LF transmission to local ecological conditions. The results imply that understanding the mechanisms that underlie locally adapted transmission dynamics will be integral to identifying points of system fragility, and thus countermeasures to reliably facilitate LF extinction both locally and globally.

Current evidence on the use of antifilarial agents in the management of bancroftian filariasis

Many trials have explored the efficacy of individual drugs and drug combinations to treat bancroftian filariasis. This narrative review summarizes the current evidence for drug management of bancroftian filariasis. Diethylcarbamazine (DEC) remains the prime antifilarial agent with a well-established microfilaricidal and some macrofilaricidal effects. Ivermectin (IVM) is highly microfilaricidal but minimally macrofilaricidal. The role of albendazole (ALB) in treatment regimens is not well established though the drug has a microfilaricidal effect. The combination of DEC+ALB has a better long-term impact than IVM+ALB. Recent trials have shown that doxycycline therapy against Wolbachia, an endosymbiotic bacterium of the parasite, is capable of reducing microfilaria rates and adult worm activity. Followup studies on mass drug administration (MDA) are yet to show a complete interruption of transmission, though the infection rates are reduced to a very low level.

Lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis

Lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis are parasitic helminth diseases that constitute a serious public health issue in tropical regions. The filarial nematodes that cause these diseases are transmitted by blood-feeding insects and produce chronic and long-term infection through suppression of host immunity. Disease pathogenesis is linked to host inflammation invoked by the death of the parasite, causing hydrocoele, lymphoedema, and elephantiasis in lymphatic filariasis, and skin disease and blindness in onchocerciasis. Most filarial species that infect people co-exist in mutualistic symbiosis with Wolbachia bacteria, which are essential for growth, development, and survival of their nematode hosts. These endosymbionts contribute to inflammatory disease pathogenesis and are a target for doxycycline therapy, which delivers macrofilaricidal activity, improves pathological outcomes, and is effective as monotherapy. Drugs to treat filariasis include diethylcarbamazine, ivermectin, and albendazole, which are used mostly in combination to reduce microfilariae in blood (lymphatic filariasis) and skin (onchocerciasis). Global programmes for control and elimination have been developed to provide sustained delivery of drugs to affected communities to interrupt transmission of disease and ultimately eliminate this burden on public health.

Transmission models and management of lymphatic filariasis elimination

The planning and evaluation of parasitic control programmes are complicated by the many interacting population dynamic and programmatic factors that determine infection trends under different control options. A key need is quantification about the status of the parasite system state at any one given timepoint and the dynamic change brought upon that state as an intervention program proceeds. Here, we focus on the control and elimination of the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, to show how mathematical models of parasite transmission can provide a quantitative framework for aiding the design of parasite elimination and monitoring programs by their ability to support (1) conducting rational analysis and definition of endpoints for different programmatic aims or objectives, including transmission endpoints for disease elimination, (2) undertaking strategic analysis to aid the optimal design of intervention programs to meet set endpoints under different endemic settings and (3) providing support for performing informed evaluations of ongoing programs, including aiding the formation of timely adaptive management strategies to correct for any observed deficiencies in program effectiveness. The results also highlight how the use of a model-based framework will be critical to addressing the impacts of ecological complexities, heterogeneities and uncertainties on effective parasite management and thereby guiding the development of strategies to resolve and overcome such real-world complexities. In particular, we underscore how this approach can provide a link between ecological science and policy by revealing novel tools and measures to appraise and enhance the biological controllability or eradicability of parasitic diseases. We conclude by emphasizing an urgent need to develop and apply flexible adaptive management frameworks informed by mathematical models that are based on learning and reducing uncertainty using monitoring data, apply phased or sequential decision-making to address extant uncertainty and focus on developing ecologically resilient management strategies, in ongoing efforts to control or eliminate filariasis and other parasitic diseases in resource-poor communities.

Geographic and ecologic heterogeneity in elimination thresholds for the major vector-borne helminthic disease, lymphatic filariasis

Background

Large-scale intervention programmes to control or eliminate several infectious diseases are currently underway worldwide. However, a major unresolved question remains: what are reasonable stopping points for these programmes? Recent theoretical work has highlighted how the ecological complexity and heterogeneity inherent in the transmission dynamics of macroparasites can result in elimination thresholds that vary between local communities. Here, we examine the empirical evidence for this hypothesis and its implications for the global elimination of the major macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis, by applying a novel Bayesian computer simulation procedure to fit a dynamic model of the transmission of this parasitic disease to field data from nine villages with different ecological and geographical characteristics. Baseline lymphatic filariasis microfilarial age-prevalence data from three geographically distinct endemic regions, across which the major vector populations implicated in parasite transmission also differed, were used to fit and calibrate the relevant vector-specific filariasis transmission models. Ensembles of parasite elimination thresholds, generated using the Bayesian fitting procedure, were then examined in order to evaluate site-specific heterogeneity in the values of these thresholds and investigate the ecological factors that may underlie such variability

Results

We show that parameters of density-dependent functions relating to immunity, parasite establishment, as well as parasite aggregation, varied significantly between the nine different settings, contributing to locally varying filarial elimination thresholds. Parasite elimination thresholds predicted for the settings in which the mosquito vector is anopheline were, however, found to be higher than those in which the mosquito is culicine, substantiating our previous theoretical findings. The results also indicate that the probability that the parasite will be eliminated following six rounds of Mass Drug Administration with diethylcarbamazine and albendazole decreases markedly but non-linearly as the annual biting rate and parasite reproduction number increases.

Conclusions

This paper shows that specific ecological conditions in a community can lead to significant local differences in population dynamics and, consequently, elimination threshold estimates for lymphatic filariasis. These findings, and the difficulty of measuring the key local parameters (infection aggregation and acquired immunity) governing differences in transmission thresholds between communities, mean that it is necessary for us to rethink the utility of the current anticipatory approaches for achieving the elimination of filariasis both locally and globally.

The role of monitoring mosquito infection in the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis

In addition to monitoring infection in the human host, there is also a need to assess larval infection in the vector mosquito population to evaluate the success of interventions for eliminating lymphatic filariasis transmission from endemic communities. Here, we review the current status of the available tools for quantifying vector infection and existing knowledge and evidence regarding potential infection thresholds for determining transmission interruption, to assess the potential for using vector infection monitoring as a tool for evaluating the success of filariasis treatment programmes.

Role of vector control in the global program to eliminate lymphatic filariasis

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a major cause of acute and chronic morbidity in the tropical and subtropical parts of the world. The availability of safe, single-dose, drug treatment regimens capable of suppressing microfilaremia to very low levels, along with improvements in techniques for diagnosing infection, has resulted in the targeting of this major mosquito-borne disease for global elimination. The Global Program to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) was launched in 2000 with the principal objective of breaking the cycles of transmission of Wuchereria bancrofti and Brugia spp. through the application of annual mass drug administrations (MDAs) to entire at-risk populations. Although significant progress in initiating MDA programs in endemic countries has been made, emerging challenges to this approach have raised questions regarding the effectiveness of using MDA alone to eliminate LF without the inclusion of supplementary vector control. Here, we review advances in knowledge of vector ecology, vector-parasite relationships, and both empirical and theoretical evidence regarding vector management to assess the feasibility and strategic value of including vector control in the GPELF initiative to achieve the global elimination of LF.

Expression of defensin, cecropin, and transferrin in Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) infected with Wuchereria bancrofti (Spirurida: Onchocercidae), and the abnormal development of nematodes in the mosquito

The temporal expression of defensin, cecropin and transferrin was assessed in Aedes aegypti naturally refractory to Wuchereria bancrofti upon infection with this worm, in parallel to analysis of filarial development in the insect. Compared to controls, transcription of defensin and cecropin was higher in infected mosquitoes as soon as 2h post infection and peaked before 48h. Transferrin transcription was higher in infected mosquitoes at 24h, and at 48h was almost leveled to controls. At 72h and 7 days post infection, levels of all transcripts in infected insects decreased gradually and were similar to controls in most cases. Worm development in A. aegypti was visually abnormal from the beginning of infection. Here, we report, for the first time, the up-regulation of endogenous immune molecules in A. aegypti infected with W. bancrofti and provide a description of the worm development inside the insect. The specificities of A. aegypti-W. bancrofti model compared to other mosquito-filaria systems are discussed.

Complex ecological dynamics and eradicability of the vector borne macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis

BACKGROUND

The current global efforts to control the morbidity and mortality caused by infectious diseases affecting developing countries--such as HIV/AIDS, polio, tuberculosis, malaria and the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs)-have led to an increasing focus on the biological controllability or eradicability of disease transmission by management action. Here, we use an age-structured dynamical model of lymphatic filariasis transmission to show how a quantitative understanding of the dynamic processes underlying infection persistence and extinction is key to evaluating the eradicability of this macroparasitic disease.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We investigated the persistence and extinction dynamics of lymphatic filariasis by undertaking a numerical equilibrium analysis of a deterministic model of parasite transmission, based on varying values of the initial L3 larval density in the system. The results highlighted the likely occurrence of complex dynamics in parasite transmission with three major outcomes for the eradicability of filariasis. First, both vector biting and worm breakpoint thresholds are shown to be complex dynamic entities with values dependent on the nature and magnitude of vector-and host specific density-dependent processes and the degree of host infection aggregation prevailing in endemic communities. Second, these thresholds as well as the potential size of the attractor domains and hence system resilience are strongly dependent on peculiarities of infection dynamics in different vector species. Finally, the existence of multiple stable states indicates the presence of hysteresis nonlinearity in the filariasis system dynamics in which infection thresholds for infection invasion are lower but occur at higher biting rates than do the corresponding thresholds for parasite elimination.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The variable dynamic nature of thresholds and parasite system resilience reflecting both initial conditions and vector species-infection specificities, and the existence of hysteresis loop phenomenon, suggests that eradication of filariasis may require taking a more flexible and locally relevant approach to designing elimination programmes compared to the current command and control approach advocated by the global programme.