Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a systematic comparison of predictions from four mathematical models

Global burden of malaria and neglected tropical diseases in children and adolescents, 1990-2019: a population-based, cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the global burden of malaria and neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) in children and adolescents aged 0-19 years and to analyse trends to inform public health and policy decisions.

DESIGN

Population-based, cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Global analysis across 204 countries and territories.

PARTICIPANTS

Children and adolescents aged 0-19 years with malaria and NTDs, stratified by age, gender and location from 1990 to 2019.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Yearly incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for malaria and NTDs, age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardised DALY rates (ASDRs).

RESULTS

The global burden of malaria and NTDs among children and adolescents aged 0-19 years remains substantial. In 2019, 195.6 million cases of malaria and NTDs were recorded globally, resulting in 43.9 million (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 25.0-70.4 million) DALYs. The incidence rate increased until 2005 and then declined. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest ASDR, while high-income regions had the lowest. Significant ASDR reductions occurred in Andean Latin America and South Asia. The burden was highest in low-Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, with malaria accounting for over 93% of DALYs among children under five. Females had slightly higher incidence rates, while DALYs were evenly distributed between genders. There was an inverse association observed between SDI and ASDRs.

CONCLUSIONS

Malaria and NTDs continue to disproportionately affect children and adolescents in low-SDI regions, especially sub-Saharan Africa. Sustaining gains while accelerating control efforts is the key to successful control progress and ambiguous elimination goals for both malaria and NTDs.

Quantifying the potential value of entomological data collection for programmatic decision-making on malaria control in sub-Saharan African settings

BACKGROUND

The availability of many tools for malaria control leads to complex decisions regarding the most cost-effective intervention package based on local epidemiology. Mosquito characteristics influence the impact of vector control, but entomological surveillance is often limited due to a lack of resources in national malaria programmes.

METHODS

This study quantified the monetary value of information provided by entomological data collection for programmatic decision-making using a mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission. The 3-year impact and cost of various intervention packages was simulated in different sub-Saharan African settings, including combinations of scaling-up insecticide-treated nets (ITN), switching to next-generation ITNs, and a treatment and prevention package. The DALYs averted and their net monetary benefit were compared at different cost-effectiveness thresholds and the value of resolving uncertainty in entomological model parameters was calculated.

RESULTS

Across transmission settings and at cost-effectiveness thresholds over US$170 per DALY averted, the most cost-effective intervention package was switching to and scaling up pyrethroid-pyrrole ITNs combined with the treatment and prevention package. The median expected value of perfect information on the entomological indicators was US$0.05 (range 0.02-0.23) and US$0.17 (range 0.09-1.43) per person at risk at thresholds of US$75 and US$1000 per DALY averted, respectively. This represented less than 2% of the net monetary benefit of implementing the most cost-effective intervention package. Value of information estimates at cost-effectiveness thresholds over US$250 were higher than current investments into entomological monitoring by the US President's Malaria Initiative.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that entomological data collection should not delay implementation of interventions with demonstrated efficacy in most settings, but that sustained investments into and use of entomological surveillance are nevertheless worthwhile and have broad value to national malaria programmes.

Therapeutic development to accelerate malaria control through intentional intervention layering

The clinical development of novel vaccines, injectable therapeutics, and oral chemoprevention drugs has the potential to deliver significant advancements in the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. These innovations could support regions in accelerating malaria control, transforming existing intervention packages by supplementing interventions with imperfect effectiveness or offering an entirely new tool. However, to layer new medical tools as part of an existing programme, malaria researchers must come to an agreement on the gaps that currently limit the effectiveness of medical interventions for moderate to low transmission settings. In this perspective, three crucial gaps that may prevent new therapeutics from being used to their fullest extent are presented. First, do burden reduction outcomes, which are typically monitored in studies of new medical products, sufficiently capture the broader goal of accelerating malaria control? Layering novel malaria products requires monitoring health outcomes that reflect the novel product's targeted stage of the parasite life cycle, in addition to all-infection and prevalence-based outcomes. Second, what public health outcome does a novel medical prevention tool provide that existing malaria interventions cannot fully deliver? Novel medical tools should be developed not just for an incremental improvement in preventive efficacy over an existing product, but also to meet a gap in protection. Specifically, this means designing products with components that target parts of the parasite life cycle beyond the scope of existing therapeutics, and better addressing populations and settings not well covered by existing tools. Finally, when do the population-level benefits of a multi-tool prevention programme justify the individual-level outcomes from receiving multiple interventions? An individual-level perspective should be key for exploring when and how layering a novel prevention intervention can accelerate efforts towards P. falciparum malaria control.

How can modeling responsibly inform decision-making in malaria?

When models are used to inform decision-making, both their strengths and limitations must be considered. Using malaria as an example, we explain how and why models are limited and offer guidance for ensuring a model is well-suited for its intended purpose.

A systematic review on malaria and dengue vaccines for the effective management of these mosquito borne diseases: Improving public health

Insect vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose significant global health challenges, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. The WHO has launched the "Global Vector Control Response (GVCR) 2017-2030" to address these diseases, emphasizing a comprehensive approach to vector control. This systematic review investigates the potential of malaria and dengue vaccines in controlling mosquito-borne VBDs, aiming to alleviate disease burdens and enhance public health. Following PRISMA 2020 guidelines, the review incorporated 39 new studies out of 934 identified records. It encompasses various studies assessing malaria and dengue vaccines, emphasizing the significance of vaccination as a preventive measure. The findings indicate variations in vaccine efficacy, duration of protection, and safety considerations for each disease, influencing public health strategies. The review underscores the urgent need for vaccines to combat the increasing burden of VBDs like malaria and dengue, advocating for ongoing research and investment in vaccine development.

Antibody mechanisms of protection against malaria in RTS,S-vaccinated children: a post-hoc serological analysis of phase 2 trial

BACKGROUND

The RTS,S malaria vaccine is currently recommended for children aged 5-6 months in regions with moderate-to-high Plasmodium falciparum transmission. However, vaccination only confers 55% efficacy over 12 months and wanes within 18 months. The immunological mechanisms of RTS,S-mediated immunity are poorly understood; therefore, we aimed to identify antibody response types associated with protection against malaria in children vaccinated with RTS,S.

METHODS

In this post-hoc analysis, we evaluated antibody responses in 737 children aged 1-4 years vaccinated with RTS,S in a phase 2b clinical trial conducted in Mozambique in 2003. We evaluated all available samples collected from children 30 days after the three-dose vaccination schedule at study month 3 (M3; n=737 available of 803 children allocated to receive RTS,S). For comparison, we tested a subset of samples collected before vaccination at study month 0 (M0; n=50) and from children in the control vaccine group (M0 n=25; M3 n=99). We quantified the induction of antibodies to different regions of the vaccine antigen that function by fixing serum complement proteins and binding to Fcγ receptors (FcγRs; FcγRI, FcγRIIa, and FcγRIII) expressed on immune cells as potential mechanisms of immunity.

FINDINGS

Functional antibody responses to the C-terminal region of the vaccine antigen, circumsporozoite protein (CSP), were associated with a reduced risk of malaria (C1q p=0·0060, FcγRIIa p=0·014, and FcγRIII p=0·019). These associations remained significant in male participants when the analyses were stratified by sex (C1q p=0·012, FcγRI p=0·023, FcγRIIa p=0·0070, and FcγRIII p=0·0080). IgA to the central repeat (p=0·0010) and C-terminal (p=0·0040) regions of CSP were also associated with protection. We show that IgA can bind FcαRI and mediate opsonic phagocytosis using a serum pool and monoclonal antibodies. Multiparameter analysis using machine-learning methods suggest that IgA, complement fixation, and FcγRI binding were most predictive of protection against malaria (hazard ratio <1) and suggested that associations differed between male and female participants.

INTERPRETATION

We provide evidence that functional antibody responses mediated by IgG and IgA are associated with protection against malaria in young children vaccinated with RTS,S, and suggest potential differences in the correlates of immunity between males and females. These findings reveal new avenues that could be used to achieve malaria vaccines with higher efficacy.

FUNDING

National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia, and Thrasher Research Fund.

AnophelesModel: An R package to interface mosquito bionomics, human exposure and intervention effects with models of malaria intervention impact

In recent decades, field and semi-field studies of malaria transmission have gathered geographic-specific information about mosquito ecology, behaviour and their sensitivity to interventions. Mathematical models of malaria transmission can incorporate such data to infer the likely impact of vector control interventions and hence guide malaria control strategies in various geographies. To facilitate this process and make model predictions of intervention impact available for different geographical regions, we developed AnophelesModel. AnophelesModel is an online, open-access R package that quantifies the impact of vector control interventions depending on mosquito species and location-specific characteristics. In addition, it includes a previously published, comprehensive, curated database of field entomological data from over 50 Anopheles species, field data on mosquito and human behaviour, and estimates of vector control effectiveness. Using the input data, the package parameterizes a discrete-time, state transition model of the mosquito oviposition cycle and infers species-specific impacts of various interventions on vectorial capacity. In addition, it offers formatted outputs ready to use in downstream analyses and by other models of malaria transmission for accurate representation of the vector-specific components. Using AnophelesModel, we show how the key implications for intervention impact change for various vectors and locations. The package facilitates quantitative comparisons of likely intervention impacts in different geographical settings varying in vector compositions, and can thus guide towards more robust and efficient malaria control recommendations. The AnophelesModel R package is available under a GPL-3.0 license at https://github.com/SwissTPH/AnophelesModel.

Report from the World Health Organization's immunization and vaccines-related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC) meeting, virtual gathering, 26 February-1 March 2024

The Immunization and Vaccine-related Implementation Research Advisory Committee (IVIR-AC) is the World Health Organization's key standing advisory body to conduct an independent review of research, particularly of transmission and economic modeling analyses that estimate the impact and value of vaccines. From 26th February-1st March 2024, at its first of two semi-annual meetings, IVIR-AC provided feedback and recommendations across four sessions; this report summarizes the proceedings and recommendations from that meeting. Session topics included modeling of the impact and cost-effectiveness of the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine, meta-analysis of economic evaluations of vaccines, a global analysis estimating the impact of vaccination over the last 50 years, and modeling the impact of different RTS,S malaria vaccine dose schedules in seasonal settings.

Severe outcomes of malaria in children under time-varying exposure

In malaria epidemiology, interpolation frameworks based on available observations are critical for policy decisions and interpreting disease burden. Updating our understanding of the empirical evidence across different populations, settings, and timeframes is crucial to improving inference for supporting public health. Here, via individual-based modeling, we evaluate a large, multicountry, contemporary Plasmodium falciparum severe malaria dataset to better understand the relationship between prevalence and incidence of malaria pediatric hospitalizations - a proxy of malaria severe outcomes- in East-Africa. We find that life-long exposure dynamics, and subsequent protection patterns in children, substantially determine the likelihood of malaria hospitalizations relative to ongoing prevalence at the population level. Unsteady transmission patterns over a lifetime in children -increasing or decreasing- lead to an exponential relationship of hospitalization rates versus prevalence rather than the asymptotic pattern observed under steady transmission. Addressing this increase in the complexity of malaria epidemiology is crucial to update burden assessments via inference models that guide current and future policy decisions.

Reverse N-Substituted Hydroxamic Acid Derivatives of Fosmidomycin Target a Previously Unknown Subpocket of 1-Deoxy-d-xylulose 5-Phosphate Reductoisomerase (DXR)

Reverse analogs of the phosphonohydroxamic acid antibiotic fosmidomycin are potent inhibitors of the nonmevalonate isoprenoid biosynthesis enzyme 1-deoxy-d-xylulose 5-phosphate reductoisomerase (DXR, IspC) of Plasmodium falciparum. Some novel analogs with large phenylalkyl substituents at the hydroxamic acid nitrogen exhibit nanomolar PfDXR inhibition and potent in vitro growth inhibition of P. falciparum parasites coupled with good parasite selectivity. X-ray crystallographic studies demonstrated that the N-phenylpropyl substituent of the newly developed lead compound 13e is accommodated in a subpocket within the DXR catalytic domain but does not reach the NADPH binding pocket of the N-terminal domain. As shown for reverse carba and thia analogs, PfDXR selectively binds the S-enantiomer of the new lead compound. In addition, some representatives of the novel inhibitor subclass are nanomolar Escherichia coli DXR inhibitors, whereas the inhibition of Mycobacterium tuberculosis DXR is considerably weaker.

The public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

The R21/Matrix-M vaccine has demonstrated high efficacy against Plasmodium falciparum clinical malaria in children in sub-Saharan Africa. Using trial data, we aimed to estimate the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccine introduction across sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We fitted a semi-mechanistic model of the relationship between anti-circumsporozoite protein antibody titres and vaccine efficacy to data from 3 years of follow-up in the phase 2b trial of R21/Matrix-M in Nanoro, Burkina Faso. We validated the model by comparing predicted vaccine efficacy to that observed over 12-18 months in the phase 3 trial. Integrating this framework within a mathematical transmission model, we estimated the cases, malaria deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted and cost-effectiveness over a 15-year time horizon across a range of transmission settings in sub-Saharan Africa. Cost-effectiveness was estimated incorporating the cost of vaccine introduction (dose, consumables, and delivery) relative to existing interventions at baseline. We report estimates at a median of 20% parasite prevalence in children aged 2-10 years (PfPR2-10) and ranges from 3% to 65% PfPR2-10.

FINDINGS

Anti-circumsporozoite protein antibody titres were found to satisfy the criteria for a surrogate of protection for vaccine efficacy against clinical malaria. Age-based implementation of a four-dose regimen of R21/Matrix-M vaccine was estimated to avert 181 825 (range 38 815-333 491) clinical cases per 100 000 fully vaccinated children in perennial settings and 202 017 (29 868-405 702) clinical cases per 100 000 fully vaccinated children in seasonal settings. Similar estimates were obtained for seasonal or hybrid implementation. Under an assumed vaccine dose price of US$3, the incremental cost per clinical case averted was $7 (range 4-48) in perennial settings and $6 (3-63) in seasonal settings and the incremental cost per DALY averted was $34 (29-139) in perennial settings and $30 (22-172) in seasonal settings, with lower cost-effectiveness ratios in settings with higher PfPR2-10.

INTERPRETATION

Introduction of the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine could have a substantial public health benefit across sub-Saharan Africa.

FUNDING

The Wellcome Trust, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Medical Research Council, the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership 2 and 3, the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and the Serum Institute of India, Open Philanthropy.

Factors associated with malaria vaccine uptake in Nsanje district, Malawi

BACKGROUND

Malaria remains a significant global health burden affecting millions of people, children under 5 years and pregnant women being most vulnerable. In 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) endorsed the introduction of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine as Phase IV implementation evaluation in three countries: Malawi, Kenya and Ghana. Acceptability and factors influencing vaccination coverage in implementing areas is relatively unknown. In Malawi, only 60% of children were fully immunized with malaria vaccine in Nsanje district in 2021, which is below 80% WHO target. This study aimed at exploring factors influencing uptake of malaria vaccine and identify approaches to increase vaccination.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional study conducted in April-May, 2023, 410 mothers/caregivers with children aged 24-36 months were selected by stratified random sampling and interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Vaccination data was collected from health passports, for those without health passports, data was collected using recall history. Regression analyses were used to test association between independent variables and full uptake of malaria vaccine.

RESULTS

Uptake of malaria vaccine was 90.5% for dose 1, but reduced to 87.6%, 69.5% and 41.2% for dose 2, 3, and 4 respectively. Children of caregivers with secondary or upper education and those who attended antenatal clinic four times or more had increased odds of full uptake of malaria vaccine [OR: 2.43, 95%CI 1.08-6.51 and OR: 1.89, 95%CI 1.18-3.02], respectively. Children who ever suffered side-effects following immunization and those who travelled long distances to reach the vaccination centre had reduced odds of full uptake of malaria vaccine [OR: 0.35, 95%CI 0.06-0.25 and OR: 0.30, 95%CI 0.03-0.39] respectively. Only 17% (n = 65) of mothers/caregivers knew the correct schedule for vaccination and 38.5% (n = 158) knew the correct number of doses a child was to receive.

CONCLUSION

Only RTS,S dose 1 and 2 uptake met WHO coverage targets. Mothers/caregivers had low level of information regarding malaria vaccine, especially on numbers of doses to be received and dosing schedule. The primary modifiable factor influencing vaccine uptake was mother/caregiver knowledge about the vaccine. Thus, to increase the uptake Nsanje District Health Directorate should strengthen communities' education about malaria vaccine. Programmes to strengthen mother/caregiver knowledge should be included in scale-up of the vaccine in Malawi and across sub-Saharan Africa.

Modeling of malaria vaccine effectiveness on disease burden and drug resistance in 42 African countries

BACKGROUND

The emergence of antimalarial drug resistance poses a major threat to effective malaria treatment and control. This study aims to inform policymakers and vaccine developers on the potential of an effective malaria vaccine in reducing drug-resistant infections.

METHODS

A compartmental model estimating cases, drug-resistant cases, and deaths averted from 2021 to 2030 with a vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum infection administered yearly to 1-year-olds in 42 African countries. Three vaccine efficacy (VE) scenarios and one scenario of rapidly increasing drug resistance are modeled.

RESULTS

When VE is constant at 40% for 4 years and then drops to 0%, 235.7 (Uncertainty Interval [UI] 187.8-305.9) cases per 1000 children, 0.6 (UI 0.4-1.0) resistant cases per 1000, and 0.6 (UI 0.5-0.9) deaths per 1000 are averted. When VE begins at 80% and drops 20 percentage points each year, 313.9 (UI 249.8-406.6) cases per 1000, 0.9 (UI 0.6-1.3) resistant cases per 1000, and 0.9 (UI 0.6-1.2) deaths per 1000 are averted. When VE remains 40% for 10 years, 384.7 (UI 311.7-496.5) cases per 1000, 1.0 (0.7-1.6) resistant cases per 1000, and 1.1 (UI 0.8-1.5) deaths per 1000 are averted. Assuming an effective vaccine and an increase in current levels of drug resistance to 80% by 2030, 10.4 (UI 7.3-15.8) resistant cases per 1000 children are averted.

CONCLUSIONS

Widespread deployment of a malaria vaccine could substantially reduce health burden in Africa. Maintaining VE longer may be more impactful than a higher initial VE that falls rapidly.

Malaria vaccine-related adverse events among children under 5 in sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

INTRODUCTION

The RTS,S vaccine has been approved for use in children under 5 living in moderate to high malaria transmission areas. However, clinically important adverse events have been reported in countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This systematic review aims to assess the frequency, severity and clinical importance of vaccine-related adverse events.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This systematic review protocol has been prepared following robust methods and reported in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses for protocols guidelines. We will search PubMed, CINAHL, LILACS, Google Scholar, SCOPUS, WEB OF SCIENCE, Cochrane library, HINARI, African Journals Online, Trip Pro and TOXNET from 2000 to 30 September 2023, without language restrictions. We will also search conference proceedings, dissertations, World Bank Open Knowledge Repository, and WHO, PATH, UNICEF, Food and Drugs Authorities and European Medicines Agency databases, preprint repositories and reference lists of relevant studies for additional studies. Experts in the field will be contacted for unpublished or published studies missed by our searches. At least two reviewers will independently select studies and extract data using pretested tools and assess risk of bias in the included studies using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Any disagreements will be resolved through discussion between the reviewers. Heterogeneity will be explored graphically, and statistically using the I2 statistic. We will conduct random-effects meta-analysis when heterogeneity is appreciable, and express dichotomous outcomes (serious adverse events, cerebral malaria and febrile convulsion) as risk ratio (RR) with their 95% CI. We will perform subgroup analysis to assess the impact of heterogeneity and sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of the effect estimates. The overall level of evidence will be assessed using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval is not required for a systematic review. The findings of this study will be disseminated through stakeholder forums, conferences and peer-review publications.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021275155.

Does ignoring transmission dynamics lead to underestimation of the impact of interventions against mosquito-borne disease?

New vector-control technologies to fight mosquito-borne diseases are urgently needed, the adoption of which depends on efficacy estimates from large-scale cluster-randomised trials (CRTs). The release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes is one promising strategy to curb dengue virus (DENV) transmission, and a recent CRT reported impressive reductions in dengue incidence following the release of these mosquitoes. Such trials can be affected by multiple sources of bias, however. We used mathematical models of DENV transmission during a CRT of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes to explore three such biases: human movement, mosquito movement and coupled transmission dynamics between trial arms. We show that failure to account for each of these biases would lead to underestimated efficacy, and that the majority of this underestimation is due to a heretofore unrecognised bias caused by transmission coupling. Taken together, our findings suggest that Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes could be even more promising than the recent CRT suggested. By emphasising the importance of accounting for transmission coupling between arms, which requires a mathematical model, we highlight the key role that models can play in interpreting and extrapolating the results from trials of vector control interventions.

An Estimate Of The Return On Investment Of A Malaria Vaccine In 20 Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2021-30

Malaria is a leading global health problem that was responsible for an estimated 619,000 deaths worldwide in 2021. We modeled the return on investment (ROI) for the introduction and continuation of a four-dose malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01, from 2021 to 2030 in twenty sub-Saharan African countries supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We used the Decade of Vaccine Economics benefits and costing outputs to calculate an ROI using health impact data modeled by the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (hereafter "Swiss") and Imperial College London (hereafter "Imperial"). The Swiss estimates with a base vaccine price of US$7.00 resulted in an ROI of 0.42, and the Imperial impact estimates with the same base vaccine price resulted in an ROI of 2.30. Inclusion of the fifth seasonal dose for ten countries exhibiting high seasonal disease burden increased the Swiss ROI by 143 percent, to 1.02, and the Imperial ROI by 23.5 percent, to 2.84. To improve ROI, decision makers should continue to improve delivery platforms, decrease vaccine delivery costs, deliver the malaria vaccine in fewer doses, and provide access to vaccine resources.

The shared ethical framework to allocate scarce medical resources: a lesson from COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has helped to clarify the fair and equitable allocation of scarce medical resources, both within and among countries. The ethical allocation of such resources entails a three-step process: (1) elucidating the fundamental ethical values for allocation, (2) using these values to delineate priority tiers for scarce resources, and (3) implementing the prioritisation to faithfully realise the fundamental values. Myriad reports and assessments have elucidated five core substantive values for ethical allocation: maximising benefits and minimising harms, mitigating unfair disadvantage, equal moral concern, reciprocity, and instrumental value. These values are universal. None of the values are sufficient alone, and their relative weight and application will vary by context. In addition, there are procedural principles such as transparency, engagement, and evidence-responsiveness. Prioritising instrumental value and minimising harms during the COVID-19 pandemic led to widespread agreement on priority tiers to include health-care workers, first responders, people living in congregate housing, and people with an increased risk of death, such as older adults and individuals with medical conditions. However, the pandemic also revealed problems with the implementation of these values and priority tiers, such as allocation on the basis of population rather than COVID-19 burden, and passive allocation that exacerbated disparities by requiring recipients to spend time booking and travelling to appointments. This ethical framework should be the starting point for the allocation of scarce medical resources in future pandemics and other public health conditions. For instance, allocation of the new malaria vaccine among sub-Saharan African countries should be based not on reciprocity to countries that participated in research, but on maximally reducing serious illness and deaths, especially among infants and children.

Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of Shigella vaccination in 102 low-income and middle-income countries in children aged 5 years or younger: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Vaccine impact and cost-effectiveness models have mostly focused on acute burden. Shigella-attributable moderate-to-severe diarrhoea has been shown to be associated with childhood linear growth faltering. Evidence also links less severe diarrhoea to linear growth faltering. As Shigella vaccines are in late stages of clinical development, we aimed to estimate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against Shigella burden that includes stunting and the acute burden attributable to less severe diarrhoea and moderate-to-severe diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used a simulation model to estimate Shigella burden and potential vaccination in children aged 5 years or younger from 102 low-income to middle-income countries from 2025 to 2044. Our model included stunting associated with Shigella-related moderate-to-severe diarrhoea and less severe diarrhoea and we explored vaccination impact on health and economic outcomes.

FINDINGS

We estimate 109 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39-204) Shigella-attributable stunting cases and 1·4 million (0·8-2·1) deaths in unvaccinated children over 20 years. We project that Shigella vaccination could avert 43 million (13-92) stunting cases and 590 000 (297 000-983 000) deaths over 20 years. The overall mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$849 (95% uncertainty interval 423-1575; median $790 [IQR 635-1005]) per disability-adjusted life-year averted. Vaccination was most cost-effective in the WHO African region and in low-income countries. Including the burden of Shigella-related less severe diarrhoea improved mean ICERs by 47-48% for these groups and substantially improved ICERs for other regions.

INTERPRETATION

Our model suggests that Shigella vaccination would be a cost-effective intervention, with a substantial impact in specific countries and regions. Other regions could potentially benefit upon the inclusion of the burden of Shigella-related stunting and less severe diarrhoea in the analysis.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Wellcome Trust.

Perennial malaria chemoprevention with and without malaria vaccination to reduce malaria burden in young children: a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

A recent WHO recommendation for perennial malaria chemoprevention (PMC) encourages countries to adapt dose timing and number to local conditions. However, knowledge gaps on the epidemiological impact of PMC and possible combination with the malaria vaccine RTS,S hinder informed policy decisions in countries where malaria burden in young children remains high.

METHODS

The EMOD malaria model was used to predict the impact of PMC with and without RTS,S on clinical and severe malaria cases in children under the age of two years (U2). PMC and RTS,S effect sizes were fit to trial data. PMC was simulated with three to seven doses (PMC-3-7) before the age of eighteen months and RTS,S with three doses, shown to be effective at nine months. Simulations were run for transmission intensities of one to 128 infectious bites per person per year, corresponding to incidences of < 1 to 5500 cases per 1000 population U2. Intervention coverage was either set to 80% or based on 2018 household survey data for Southern Nigeria as a sample use case. The protective efficacy (PE) for clinical and severe cases in children U2 was calculated in comparison to no PMC and no RTS,S.

RESULTS

The projected impact of PMC or RTS,S was greater at moderate to high transmission than at low or very high transmission. Across the simulated transmission levels, PE estimates of PMC-3 at 80% coverage ranged from 5.7 to 8.8% for clinical, and from 6.1 to 13.6% for severe malaria (PE of RTS,S 10-32% and 24.6-27.5% for clinical and severe malaria, respectively. In children U2, PMC with seven doses nearly averted as many cases as RTS,S, while the combination of both was more impactful than either intervention alone. When operational coverage, as seen in Southern Nigeria, increased to a hypothetical target of 80%, cases were reduced beyond the relative increase in coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

PMC can substantially reduce clinical and severe cases in the first two years of life in areas with high malaria burden and perennial transmission. A better understanding of the malaria risk profile by age in early childhood and on feasible coverage by age, is needed for selecting an appropriate PMC schedule in a given setting.

A sting in the tail-are antibodies against the C-terminus of Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein protective?

Malaria remains a huge burden on global public health. Annually there are more than 200 million cases with > 600,000 deaths worldwide, the vast majority of which occur within Sub-Saharan Africa (WHO; World Malaria Report, 2021). Malaria disease is the consequence of infection by a protozoan parasite from the genus Plasmodium with most morbidity and mortality caused by P. falciparum. With rates of infection plateauing and rebounding in some areas (in particular, as a result of the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic), there have been increasing calls for new initiatives that can reduce malaria incidence towards local elimination or the hoped for goal of global eradication. In 2021, the World Health Organisation approved the first malaria vaccine RTS,S/AS01 (also called Mosquirix™), indicating it to be safe for use in young children and advocating its integration into routine immunisation programmes. Approval of this vaccine clearly represents a major landmark in global efforts towards malaria control and eradication aspirations. RTS,S modest efficacy, however, points at the need to better understand immune responses to the parasite if we hope to design next generation malaria vaccines with increased potency.

Modelling the relative cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine compared to investment in vector control or chemoprophylaxis

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization has recommended a 4-dose schedule of the RTS,S/AS01 (RTS,S) vaccine for children in regions of moderate to high P. falciparum transmission. Faced with limited supply and finite resources, global funders and domestic malaria control programs will need to examine the relative cost-effectiveness of RTS,S and identify target areas for vaccine implementation relative to scale-up of existing interventions.

METHODS

Using an individual-based mathematical model of P. falciparum, we modelled the cost-effectiveness of RTS,S across a range of settings in sub-Saharan Africa, incorporating various rainfall patterns, insecticide-treated net (ITN) use, treatment coverage, and parasite prevalence bands. We compare age-based and seasonal RTS,S administration to increasing ITN usage, switching to next generation ITNs in settings experiencing insecticide-resistance, and introduction of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) in areas of seasonal transmission.

RESULTS

For RTS,S to be the most cost-effective intervention option considered, the maximum cost per dose was less than $9.30 USD in 90.9% of scenarios. Nearly all (89.8%) values at or above $9.30 USD per dose were in settings with 60% established bed net use and / or with established SMC, and 76.3% were in the highest PfPR_2-10 band modelled (40%). Addition of RTS,S to strategies involving 60% ITN use, increased ITN usage or a switch to PBO nets, and SMC, if eligible, still led to significant marginal case reductions, with a median of 2,653 (IQR: 1,741 to 3,966) cases averted per 100,000 people annually, and 82,270 (IQR: 54,034 to 123,105) cases averted per 100,000 fully vaccinated children (receiving at least three doses).

CONCLUSIONS

Use of RTS,S results in reductions in malaria cases and deaths even when layered upon existing interventions. When comparing relative cost-effectiveness, scale up of ITNs, introduction of SMC, and switching to new technology nets should be prioritized in eligible settings.

Cost of introducing and delivering malaria vaccine (RTS,S/AS01E) in areas of seasonal malaria transmission, Mali and Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

The WHO recommends use of the RTS,S/AS01_E (RTS,S) malaria vaccine for young children living in areas of moderate to high Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission and suggests countries consider seasonal vaccination in areas with highly seasonal malaria. Seasonal vaccination is uncommon and may require adaptations with potential cost consequences. This study prospectively estimates cost of seasonal malaria vaccine delivery in Mali and Burkina Faso.

METHODS

Three scenarios for seasonal vaccine delivery are costed (1) mass campaign only, (2) routine Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) and (3) mixed delivery (mass campaign and routine EPI)), from the government's perspective. Resource use data are informed by previous new vaccine introductions, supplemented with primary data from a sample of health facilities and administrative units.

FINDINGS

At an assumed vaccine price of US $5 per dose, the economic cost per dose administered ranges between $7.73 and $8.68 (mass campaign), $7.04 and $7.38 (routine EPI) and $7.26 and $7.93 (mixed delivery). Excluding commodities, the cost ranges between $1.17 and $2.12 (mass campaign), $0.48 and $0.82 (routine EPI) and $0.70 and $1.37 (mixed delivery). The financial non-commodity cost per dose administered ranges between $0.99 and $1.99 (mass campaign), $0.39 and $0.76 (routine EPI) and $0.58 and $1.28 (mixed delivery). Excluding commodity costs, service delivery is the main cost driver under the mass campaign scenario, accounting for 36% to 55% of the financial cost. Service delivery accounts for 2%-8% and 12%-23% of the total financial cost under routine EPI and mixed delivery scenarios, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Vaccine delivery using the mass campaign approach is most costly followed by mixed delivery and routine EPI delivery approaches, in both countries. Our cost estimates provide useful insights for decisions regarding delivery approaches, as countries plan the malaria vaccine rollout.

Pre-referral rectal artesunate is no "magic bullet" in weak health systems

Severe malaria is a potentially fatal condition that requires urgent treatment. In a clinical trial, a sub-group of children treated with rectal artesunate (RAS) before being referred to a health facility had an increased chance of survival. We recently published in BMC Medicine results of the CARAMAL Project that did not find the same protective effect of pre-referral RAS implemented at scale under real-world conditions in three African countries. Instead, CARAMAL identified serious health system shortfalls that impacted the entire continuum of care, constraining the effectiveness of RAS. Correspondence to the article criticized the observational study design and the alleged interpretation and consequences of our findings.Here, we clarify that we do not dispute the life-saving potential of RAS, and discuss the methodological criticism. We acknowledge the potential for confounding in observational studies. Nevertheless, the totality of CARAMAL evidence is in full support of our conclusion that the conditions under which RAS can be beneficial were not met in our settings, as children often failed to complete referral and post-referral treatment was inadequate.The criticism did not appear to acknowledge the realities of highly malarious settings documented in detail in the CARAMAL project. Suggesting that trial-demonstrated efficacy is sufficient to warrant large-scale deployment of pre-referral RAS ignores the paramount importance of functioning health systems for its delivery, for completing post-referral treatment, and for achieving complete cure. Presenting RAS as a "magic bullet" distracts from the most urgent priority: fixing health systems so they can provide a functioning continuum of care and save the lives of sick children.The data underlying our publication is freely accessible on Zenodo.

Modelling to inform next-generation medical interventions for malaria prevention and treatment

Global progress against malaria has stagnated and novel medical interventions to prevent malaria are needed to fill gaps in existing tools and improve protection against infection and disease. Candidate selection for next-generation interventions should be supported by the best available evidence. Target product profiles and preferred product characteristics play a key role in setting selection criteria requirements and early endorsement by health authorities. While clinical evidence and expert opinion often inform product development decisions, integrating modelling evidence early and iteratively into this process provides an opportunity to link product characteristics with expected public health outcomes. Population models of malaria transmission can provide a better understanding of which, and at what magnitude, key intervention characteristics drive public health impact, and provide quantitative evidence to support selection of use-cases, transmission settings, and deployment strategies. We describe how modelling evidence can guide and accelerate development of new malaria vaccines, monoclonal antibodies, and chemoprevention.

Cost of introducing and delivering RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine within the malaria vaccine implementation program

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommended widespread use of the RTS,S/AS01 (RTS,S) malaria vaccine among children residing in regions of moderate to high malaria transmission. This recommendation is informed by RTS,S evidence, including findings from the pilot rollout of the vaccine in Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi. This study estimates the incremental costs of introducing and delivering the malaria vaccine within routine immunization programs in the context of malaria vaccine pilot introduction, to help inform decision-making.

METHODS

An activity-based, retrospective costing was conducted from the governments' perspective. Vaccine introduction and delivery costs supported by the donors during the pilot introduction were attributed as costs to the governments under routine implementation. Detailed resource use data were extracted from the pilot program expenditure and activity reports for 2019-2021. Primary data from representative health facilities were collected to inform recurrent operational and service delivery costs.Costs were categorized as introduction or recurrent costs. Both financial and economic costs were estimated and reported in 2020 USD. The cost of donated vaccine doses was evaluated at $2, $5 and $10 per dose and included in the economic cost estimates. Financial costs include the procurement add on costs for the donated vaccines and immunization supplies, along with other direct expenses.

FINDINGS

At a vaccine price of $5 per dose, the incremental cost per dose administered across countries ranges from $2.30 to $3.01 (financial), and $8.28 to $10.29 (economic). The non-vaccine cost of delivery ranges between $1.04 and $2.46 (financial) and $1.52 and $4.62 (economic), by country. Considering only recurrent costs, the non-vaccine cost of delivery per dose ranges between $0.29 and $0.89 (financial) and $0.59 and $2.29 (economic), by country. Introduction costs constitute between 33% and 71% of total financial costs. Commodity and procurement add-on costs are the main cost drivers of total cost across countries. Incremental resource needs for implementation are dependent on country's baseline immunization program capacity constraints.

INTERPRETATION

The financial costs of introducing RTS,S are comparable with costs of introducing other new vaccines. Country resource requirements for malaria vaccine introduction are most influenced by vaccine price and potential donor funding for vaccine purchases and introduction support.

Barriers and facilitators to nationwide implementation of the malaria vaccine in Ghana

Interventions such as antimalarial drugs, bed nets and insecticides have helped curb the burden of malaria in the past decade, yet malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children below the age of 5 years. In 2019, Ghana, Malawi and Kenya in sub-Saharan Africa (countries with moderate to high transmission areas of malaria and deaths) started piloting the RTS,S/AS01E malaria vaccine in selected regions. Using qualitative methods, this study examined the main factors (forces) that will influence or hinder the nationwide implementation of the malaria vaccine, if approved, in Ghana. We conducted in-depth interviews with 12 key individuals (national, research/academia and programme implementing partners) in the public health sector in Ghana from October 2018 to February 2019. Results were analysed using Kurt Lewin's force field analysis to understand how organizations interact with their external environment in the delivery of health policies such as the implementation of the malaria vaccine. We found that the disease burden of malaria deaths in Ghana, the efficacy of the vaccine, stakeholder involvement and evidence for the feasibility of vaccine delivery generated by the consortium of researchers (body of researchers) that can track the implementation were the driving forces to scale up the vaccine into a routine health system. On the other hand, the needed logistics, funding, administration of the four-dose vaccine and follow-up were identified as potential barriers. The most influential force collectively highlighted by the respondents was the disease burden, and the most influential barrier was the logistics of delivering the vaccine. Our findings provide decision makers with key barriers and facilitators to guide policy and decision-making for malaria control in Ghana and other similar settings in low- and middle-income countries.

Seasonal use case for the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

A 2021 clinical trial of seasonal RTS,S/AS01_E (RTS,S) vaccination showed that vaccination was non-inferior to seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) in preventing clinical malaria. The combination of these two interventions provided significant additional protection against clinical and severe malaria outcomes. Projections of the effect of this novel approach to RTS,S vaccination in seasonal transmission settings for extended timeframes and across a range of epidemiological settings are needed to inform policy recommendations.

METHODS

We used a mathematical, individual-based model of malaria transmission that was fitted to data on the relationship between entomological inoculation rate and parasite prevalence, clinical disease, severe disease, and deaths from multiple sites across Africa. The model was validated with results from a phase 3b trial assessing the effect of SV-RTS,S in Mali and Burkina Faso. We developed three intervention efficacy models with varying degrees and durations of protection for our population-level modelling analysis to assess the potential effect of an RTS,S vaccination schedule based on age (doses were delivered to children aged 6 months, 7·5 months, and 9 months for the first three doses, and at 27 months of age for the fourth dose) or season (children aged 5-17 months at the time of first vaccination received the first three doses in the 3 months preceding the transmission season, with any subsequent doses up to five doses delivered annually) in seasonal transmission settings both in the absence and presence of SMC with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine. This is modelled as a full therapeutic course delivered every month for four or five months of the peak in transmission season. Estimates of cases and deaths averted in a population of 100 000 children aged 0-5 years were calculated over a 15-year time period for a range of levels of malaria transmission intensity (Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence in children aged 2-10 years between 10% and 65%) and over two west Africa seasonality archetypes.

FINDINGS

Seasonally targeting RTS,S resulted in greater absolute reductions in malaria cases and deaths compared with an age-based strategy, averting an additional 14 000-47 000 cases per 100 000 children aged 5 years and younger over 15 years, dependent on seasonality and transmission intensity. We predicted that adding seasonally targeted RTS,S to SMC would reduce clinical incidence by up to an additional 42 000-67 000 cases per 100 000 children aged 5 years and younger over 15 years compared with SMC alone. Transmission season duration was a key determinant of intervention effect, with the advantage of adding RTS,S to SMC predicted to be smaller with shorter transmission seasons.

INTERPRETATION

RTS,S vaccination in seasonal settings could be a valuable additional tool to existing interventions, with seasonal delivery maximising the effect relative to an age-based approach. Decisions surrounding deployment strategies of RTS,S in such settings will need to consider the local and regional variations in seasonality, current rates of other interventions, and potential achievable RTS,S coverage.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office, The Wellcome Trust, and The Royal society.

The RTS,S malaria vaccine: Current impact and foundation for the future

The RTS,S vaccine has recently been recommended for implementation as a childhood vaccine in regions with moderate-to-high malaria transmission. We discuss mechanisms of vaccine protection and longevity, implementation considerations, and future research needed to increase the vaccine’s health impact, including vaccine modifications for higher efficacy and longevity of protection.

Design and development of a self-assembling protein nanoparticle displaying PfHAP2 antigenic determinants recognized by natural acquired antibodies

Backgrounds

In order to move towards the elimination and eradication of malaria in the world, the development of vaccines is inevitable. Many modern vaccines are based on recombinant technology; however, they may not provide a fully protective, long-lasting immune response. One of the strategies to improve recombinant vaccines is designing the nanovaccines such as self-assembling protein nanoparticles (SAPNs). Hence, the presentation of epitopes in a repeat array and correct conformation should be considered. P. falciparum generative cell-specific 1 (PfGCS1) is a main transmission-blocking vaccine candidate with two highly conserved fragments, HAP2-GCS1 and cd loop, inducing partial malaria transmission inhibitory antibodies. Therefore, to design an effective malaria vaccine, we used cd loop and HAP2-GCS1 fragments at the amino and carboxy terminuses of the SAPN-forming amino acid sequence, respectively.

Methodology/Principal findings

The SAPN monomer (PfGCS1-SAPN) sequence was designed, and the three-dimensional (3D) structure was predicted. The result of this prediction ensured the presence of antigens on the SAPN surface. Then the accuracy of the predicted 3D structure and its stability were confirmed by 100 ns molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. The designed SAPN substructure sequence was synthesized, cloned, and expressed in Escherichia coli. With a gradual decrease in urea concentration in dialysis solutions, the purified proteins progressed to the final desired structure of the SAPN, which then was confirmed by Dynamic Light Scattering (DLS) and Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM) tests. According to the Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA), antigenic determinants were presented on the SAPN surface and interacted with antibodies in the serum of malaria patients.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results show that the SAPN formed by PfGCS1-SAPN has produced the correct shape and size, and the antigenic determinants are presented on the surface of the SAPN, which indicates that the designed SAPN has great potential to be used in the future as a malaria vaccine.

RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine (Mosquirix®): a profile of its use

RTS,S/AS01 (Mosquirix^®) is a vaccine against malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum. In a phase 3 trial, RTS,S/AS01 showed vaccine efficacy against clinical malaria, severe malaria and malaria hospitalization, with an acceptable safety and tolerability profile, in children aged 6 weeks to 17 months; the vaccine efficacy was greater in children than in infants and waned over time. In another phase 3 trial, RTS,S/AS01 was noninferior to seasonal malaria chemoprevention in children. WHO recommends a 4-dose schedule of RTS,S/AS01 for the prevention of P. falciparum malaria in children from 5 months of age living in regions with moderate to high malaria transmission, with an optional 5-dose schedule for areas with highly seasonal malaria transmission. First results from large pilot implementation in Africa show that RTS,S/AS01 has a favourable safety profile, increases equity in access to malaria prevention, is highly cost effective, can be delivered through routine national immunization programmes and substantially reduces severe malaria burden.

Malaria is a life-threatening disease caused by Plasmodium parasites, which are spread to humans through bites of infected mosquitoes. RTS,S/AS01 (Mosquirix^®) is a vaccine against malaria caused by P. falciparum. In phase 3 trials, RTS,S/AS01 showed vaccine efficacy against P. falciparum malaria and was at least as effective as seasonal malaria chemoprevention in children, with an acceptable safety and tolerability profile. Results of the first 2 years of a large scale pilot implementation of RTS,S/AS01 in Africa allowed WHO to recommend the vaccine for the prevention of P. falciparum malaria in children from 5 months of age living in regions with moderate to high malaria transmission, with an optional use for seasonal malaria.

The fight against malaria: Diminishing gains and growing challenges

Since the year 2000, historic reductions in malaria incidence and mortality have been driven by the widespread distribution of bed nets, drugs, and insecticides for the prevention and treatment of malaria. Scale-up of these tools has been enabled by an increase in malaria financing compounded by price reductions, yet these trends are unlikely to continue at the same rate. Rapid population growth in high-endemic areas requires procurement of more of these tools just to maintain current coverage, even as prices are likely to increase as resistance to drugs and insecticides forces shifts to newer products. Further progress toward the long-term goal of malaria eradication requires a combination of greater funding, more cost-effective resource allocation, and fundamental changes to the global malaria control strategy.

What Africa can do to accelerate and sustain progress against malaria

After a longstanding global presence, malaria is now largely non-existent or suppressed in most parts of the world. Today, cases and deaths are primarily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa. According to many experts, this persistence on the African continent reflects factors such as resistance to insecticides and drugs as well as insufficient access to essential commodities such as insecticide-treated nets and effective drugs. Crucially, however, this narrative ignores many central weaknesses in the fight against malaria and instead reinforces a narrow, commodity-driven vision of disease control. This paper therefore describes the core challenges hindering malaria programs in Africa and highlights key opportunities to rethink current strategies for sustainable control and elimination. The epidemiology of malaria in Africa presents far greater challenges than elsewhere and requires context-specific initiatives tailored to national and sub-national targets. To sustain progress, African countries must systematically address key weaknesses in its health systems, improve the quality and use of data for surveillance-responses, improve both technical and leadership competencies for malaria control, and gradually reduce overreliance on commodities while expanding multisectoral initiatives such as improved housing and environmental sanitation. They must also leverage increased funding from both domestic and international sources, and support pivotal research and development efforts locally. Effective vaccines and drugs, or other potentially transformative technologies such as genedrive modified mosquitoes, could further accelerate malaria control by complementing current tools. However, our underlying strategies remain insufficient and must be expanded to include more holistic and context-specific approaches critical to achieve and sustain effective malaria control.

Leveraging mathematical models of disease dynamics and machine learning to improve development of novel malaria interventions

Background

Substantial research is underway to develop next-generation interventions that address current malaria control challenges. As there is limited testing in their early development, it is difficult to predefine intervention properties such as efficacy that achieve target health goals, and therefore challenging to prioritize selection of novel candidate interventions. Here, we present a quantitative approach to guide intervention development using mathematical models of malaria dynamics coupled with machine learning. Our analysis identifies requirements of efficacy, coverage, and duration of effect for five novel malaria interventions to achieve targeted reductions in malaria prevalence.

Methods

A mathematical model of malaria transmission dynamics is used to simulate deployment and predict potential impact of new malaria interventions by considering operational, health-system, population, and disease characteristics. Our method relies on consultation with product development stakeholders to define the putative space of novel intervention specifications. We couple the disease model with machine learning to search this multi-dimensional space and efficiently identify optimal intervention properties that achieve specified health goals.

Results

We apply our approach to five malaria interventions under development. Aiming for malaria prevalence reduction, we identify and quantify key determinants of intervention impact along with their minimal properties required to achieve the desired health goals. While coverage is generally identified as the largest driver of impact, higher efficacy, longer protection duration or multiple deployments per year are needed to increase prevalence reduction. We show that interventions on multiple parasite or vector targets, as well as combinations the new interventions with drug treatment, lead to significant burden reductions and lower efficacy or duration requirements.

Conclusions

Our approach uses disease dynamic models and machine learning to support decision-making and resource investment, facilitating development of new malaria interventions. By evaluating the intervention capabilities in relation to the targeted health goal, our analysis allows prioritization of interventions and of their specifications from an early stage in development, and subsequent investments to be channeled cost-effectively towards impact maximization. This study highlights the role of mathematical models to support intervention development. Although we focus on five malaria interventions, the analysis is generalizable to other new malaria interventions.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-022-00981-1.

Contribution and quality of mathematical modeling evidence in World Health Organization guidelines: A systematic review

Mathematical modeling studies are frequently conducted to guide policy in global health. However, the contribution of mathematical modeling studies to World Health Organization (WHO) guideline recommendations, and the quality of evidence contributed by these studies remains unknown. We conducted a systematic review of the WHO Guidelines Review Committee database to identify guideline recommendations that included evidence from mathematical modeling studies since inception of the Guidelines Review Committee on 1 December, 2007. We included WHO guideline recommendations citing a mathematical modeling study in the primary evidence base. We defined a mathematical model as a framework that predicted epidemiologic, health or economic impact of an intervention or decision in the clinical or public health context. The primary outcome was inclusion of evidence from mathematical modeling studies in a guideline recommendation. We evaluated each unique modeling study across multiple domains of quality. Between 1 December 2007 and 1 April 2019, the WHO Guidelines Review Committee approved 154 guidelines providing 1619 guideline recommendations. Mathematical modeling studies informed 46 WHO guidelines (29.9%) and 101 unique guideline recommendations (6.2%). Modeling evidence addressed topics related to infectious diseases in 38 guidelines (82.6%) and 81 recommendations (80.2%), most commonly for HIV and tuberculosis. Evidence from modeling studies was assessed in the GRADE evidence profile for 12 recommendations (12.9%) and GRADE evidence-to-decision framework for 45 recommendations (44.6%). Modeling-informed recommendations were more likely than other recommendations within the same guidelines to be issued with a "conditional" rather than "strong" strength of recommendation (53.5% versus 37.8%), and the evidence underlying modeling-informed recommendations was more likely to be assessed as very low quality (41.6% versus 24.1%). Upon review of individual modeling studies, we estimated that 33.8% of models performed a calibration, 29.4% of models performed a validation of results, and 20.6% of models reported a change in the study conclusion in the sensitivity analysis. While policy recommendations in WHO guidelines are informed by evidence from modeling studies, the validity of modeling studies included in guidelines development is heterogeneous. Quality assessment is needed to support the evaluation and incorporation of evidence from mathematical modeling studies in guidelines development.

Reflections on the 2021 World Malaria Report and the future of malaria control

The World Malaria Report, released in December 2021, reflects the unique challenges currently facing the global malaria community. The report showed the devastating toll of malaria, with an estimated 627,000 people losing their lives to the disease in 2020. The improved methodological approach used for calculating cause of death for young children revealed a systematic underestimation of disease burden over the past two decades; and that Africa has an even greater malaria crisis than previously known. While countries were able to prevent the worst-case scenarios, the disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic revealed how weak health systems and inadequate financing can limit the capacity of the continent to address the malaria challenge. African countries also face a convergence of biological threats that could redefine malaria control, notably widespread pyrethroid resistance and emerging resistance to artemisinin. Despite these challenges, there is cause for optimism in lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic, recent acceleration of cutting edge research and development, and new partnerships that encourage leadership from and ownership by affected countries. This article presents key insights from the 2021 World Malaria Report and reflections on the future trajectories: it was informed by an in-depth discussion with leading malaria experts from the World Health Organization (WHO), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the U.S. President's Malaria Initiative (PMI). The discussion took place during the 34th edition of the Ifakara Master Classes, held virtually on December 15th, 2021.

Mosquirix™ RTS, S/AS01 Vaccine Development, Immunogenicity, and Efficacy

Malaria is a parasitic infection caused by bites from Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum)-infected mosquitoes with a present scale of symptoms ranging from moderate fever to neurological disorders. P. falciparum is the most lethal of the five strains of malaria, and is a major case of morbidity and mortality in endemic regions. Recent advancements in malaria diagnostic tools and prevention strategies have improved conjugation antimalarial therapies using fumigation and long-lasting insecticidal sprays, thus lowering malarial infections. Declines in the total number of infected individuals have been correlated with antimalarial drugs. Despite this, malaria remains a major health threat, affecting more than 30 million men, women, and children around the globe, and 20 percent of all children around the globe have malaria parasites in their blood. To overcome this life-threatening condition, novel therapeutic strategies, including immunization, are urgently needed to tackle this infection around the world. In line with this, the development of the RTS, S vaccine was a significant step forward in the fight against malaria. RTS, S is a vaccine for P. falciparum in which R specifies central repeat units, T the T-cell epitopes, and S indicates surface antigen. The RTS, S/AS01 malarial vaccine was synthesized and screened in several clinical trials between 2009 and 2014, involving thousands of young children in seven African countries, showing that children who received the vaccine did not suffer from severe malaria. Mosquirix™ was approved by the World Health Organization in 2021, indicating it to be safe and advocating its integration into routine immunization programs and existing malaria control measures. This paper examines the various stages of the vaccine’s development, including the evaluation of its immunogenicity and efficacy on the basis of a total of 2.3 million administered doses through a routine immunization program. The protection and effectiveness provided by the vaccine are strong, and evidence shows that it can be effectively delivered through the routine child immunization platform. The economic cost of the vaccine remains to be considered.

Sub-national tailoring of malaria interventions in Mainland Tanzania: simulation of the impact of strata-specific intervention combinations using modelling

Background

To accelerate progress against malaria in high burden countries, a strategic reorientation of resources at the sub-national level is needed. This paper describes how mathematical modelling was used in mainland Tanzania to support the strategic revision that followed the mid-term review of the 2015–2020 national malaria strategic plan (NMSP) and the epidemiological risk stratification at the council level in 2018.

Methods

Intervention mixes, selected by the National Malaria Control Programme, were simulated for each malaria risk strata per council. Intervention mixes included combinations of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN), indoor residual spraying, larval source management, and intermittent preventive therapies for school children (IPTsc). Effective case management was either based on estimates from the malaria indicator survey in 2016 or set to a hypothetical target of 85%. A previously calibrated mathematical model in OpenMalaria was used to compare intervention impact predictions for prevalence and incidence between 2016 and 2020, or 2022.

Results

For each malaria risk stratum four to ten intervention mixes were explored. In the low-risk and urban strata, the scenario without a ITN mass campaign in 2019, predicted high increase in prevalence by 2020 and 2022, while in the very-low strata the target prevalence of less than 1% was maintained at low pre-intervention transmission intensity and high case management. In the moderate and high strata, IPTsc in addition to existing vector control was predicted to reduce the incidence by an additional 15% and prevalence by 22%. In the high-risk strata, all interventions together reached a maximum reduction of 76%, with around 70% of that reduction attributable to high case management and ITNs. Overall, the simulated revised NMSP was predicted to achieve a slightly lower prevalence in 2020 compared to the 2015–2020 NMSP (5.3% vs 6.3%).

Conclusion

Modelling supported the choice of intervention per malaria risk strata by providing impact comparisons of various alternative intervention mixes to address specific questions relevant to the country. The use of a council-calibrated model, that reproduces local malaria trends, represents a useful tool for compiling available evidence into a single analytical platform, that complement other evidence, to aid national programmes with decision-making processes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04099-5.

Optimal control analysis of hepatocytic-erythrocytic dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria

This paper presents an in-host malaria model subject to anti-malarial drug treatment and malaria vaccine antigens combinations. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle is applied to establish optimal control strategies against infected erythrocytes, infected hepatocytes and malaria parasites. Results from numerical simulation reveal that a combination of pre-erythrocytic vaccine antigen, blood schizontocide and gametocytocide drugs would offer the best strategy to eradicate clinical P. falciparum malaria. Sensitivity analysis, further reveal that the efficacy of blood schizontocides and blood stage vaccines are crucial in the control of clinical malaria infection. Futhermore, we found that an effective blood schizontocide should be used alongside efficacious blood stage vaccine for rapid eradication of infective malaria parasites. The authors hope that the results of this study will help accelerate malaria elimination efforts by combining malaria vaccines and anti-malarial drugs against the deadly P. falciparum malaria.

What Drives the Value of a Shigella Vaccine?

The development and licensure of a safe and highly efficacious Shigella vaccine has been a priority in international public health circles for decades and would represent a great scientific achievement. Nonetheless, in the context of increasingly crowded and costly childhood immunization programs, and with a myriad of other new and improved vaccines currently or soon on the market, there is no guarantee that even a highly effective Shigella vaccine would become a priority for adoption and introduction by the low- and middle-income countries that could benefit from it the most. We discuss here some of the major determinants and questions regarding the introduction of Shigella vaccines and the importance of developing a succinct, compelling public health value proposition.

Malaria hospitalisation in East Africa: age, phenotype and transmission intensity

BACKGROUND

Understanding the age patterns of disease is necessary to target interventions to maximise cost-effective impact. New malaria chemoprevention and vaccine initiatives target young children attending routine immunisation services. Here we explore the relationships between age and severity of malaria hospitalisation versus malaria transmission intensity.

METHODS

Clinical data from 21 surveillance hospitals in East Africa were reviewed. Malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years from discrete administrative areas since 2006 were identified. Each site-time period was matched to a model estimated community-based age-corrected parasite prevalence to provide predictions of prevalence in childhood (PfPR2-10). Admission with all-cause malaria, severe malaria anaemia (SMA), respiratory distress (RD) and cerebral malaria (CM) were analysed as means and predicted probabilities from Bayesian generalised mixed models.

RESULTS

52,684 malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years were described at 21 hospitals from 49 site-time locations where PfPR2-10 varied from < 1 to 48.7%. Twelve site-time periods were described as low transmission (PfPR2-10 < 5%), five low-moderate transmission (PfPR2-10 5-9%), 20 moderate transmission (PfPR2-10 10-29%) and 12 high transmission (PfPR2-10 ≥ 30%). The majority of malaria admissions were below 5 years of age (69-85%) and rare among children aged 10-14 years (0.7-5.4%) across all transmission settings. The mean age of all-cause malaria hospitalisation was 49.5 months (95% CI 45.1, 55.4) under low transmission compared with 34.1 months (95% CI 30.4, 38.3) at high transmission, with similar trends for each severe malaria phenotype. CM presented among older children at a mean of 48.7 months compared with 39.0 months and 33.7 months for SMA and RD, respectively. In moderate and high transmission settings, 34% and 42% of the children were aged between 2 and 23 months and so within the age range targeted by chemoprevention or vaccines.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeting chemoprevention or vaccination programmes to areas where community-based parasite prevalence is ≥10% is likely to match the age ranges covered by interventions (e.g. intermittent presumptive treatment in infancy to children aged 2-23 months and current vaccine age eligibility and duration of efficacy) and the age ranges of highest disease burden.

Adapting and validating the log quadratic model to derive under-five age- and cause-specific mortality (U5ACSM): a preliminary analysis

BACKGROUND

The mortality pattern from birth to age five is known to vary by underlying cause of mortality, which has been documented in multiple instances. Many countries without high functioning vital registration systems could benefit from estimates of age- and cause-specific mortality to inform health programming, however, to date the causes of under-five death have only been described for broad age categories such as for neonates (0-27 days), infants (0-11 months), and children age 12-59 months.

METHODS

We adapt the log quadratic model to mortality patterns for children under five to all-cause child mortality and then to age- and cause-specific mortality (U5ACSM). We apply these methods to empirical sample registration system mortality data in China from 1996 to 2015. Based on these empirical data, we simulate probabilities of mortality in the case when the true relationships between age and mortality by cause are known.

RESULTS

We estimate U5ACSM within 0.1-0.7 deaths per 1000 livebirths in hold out strata for life tables constructed from the China sample registration system, representing considerable improvement compared to an error of 1.2 per 1000 livebirths using a standard approach. This improved prediction error for U5ACSM is consistently demonstrated for all-cause as well as pneumonia- and injury-specific mortality. We also consistently identified cause-specific mortality patterns in simulated mortality scenarios.

CONCLUSION

The log quadratic model is a significant improvement over the standard approach for deriving U5ACSM based on both simulation and empirical results.

Model-informed target product profiles of long-acting-injectables for use as seasonal malaria prevention

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) has proven highly efficacious in reducing malaria incidence. However, the continued success of SMC is threatened by the spread of resistance against one of its main preventive ingredients, Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine (SP), operational challenges in delivery, and incomplete adherence to the regimens. Via a simulation study with an individual-based model of malaria dynamics, we provide quantitative evidence to assess long-acting injectables (LAIs) as potential alternatives to SMC. We explored the predicted impact of a range of novel preventive LAIs as a seasonal prevention tool in children aged three months to five years old during late-stage clinical trials and at implementation. LAIs were co-administered with a blood-stage clearing drug once at the beginning of the transmission season. We found the establishment of non-inferiority of LAIs to standard 3 or 4 rounds of SMC with SP-amodiaquine was challenging in clinical trial stages due to high intervention deployment coverage. However, our analysis of implementation settings where the achievable SMC coverage was much lower, show LAIs with fewer visits per season are potential suitable replacements to SMC. Suitability as a replacement with higher impact is possible if the duration of protection of LAIs covered the duration of the transmission season. Furthermore, optimising LAIs coverage and protective efficacy half-life via simulation analysis in settings with an SMC coverage of 60% revealed important trade-offs between protective efficacy decay and deployment coverage. Our analysis additionally highlights that for seasonal deployment for LAIs, it will be necessary to investigate the protective efficacy decay as early as possible during clinical development to ensure a well-informed candidate selection process.

Emulator-based Bayesian optimization for efficient multi-objective calibration of an individual-based model of malaria

Individual-based models have become important tools in the global battle against infectious diseases, yet model complexity can make calibration to biological and epidemiological data challenging. We propose using a Bayesian optimization framework employing Gaussian process or machine learning emulator functions to calibrate a complex malaria transmission simulator. We demonstrate our approach by optimizing over a high-dimensional parameter space with respect to a portfolio of multiple fitting objectives built from datasets capturing the natural history of malaria transmission and disease progression. Our approach quickly outperforms previous calibrations, yielding an improved final goodness of fit. Per-objective parameter importance and sensitivity diagnostics provided by our approach offer epidemiological insights and enhance trust in predictions through greater interpretability.

Insights from modelling malaria vaccines for policy decisions: the focus on RTS,S

Mathematical models are increasingly used to inform decisions throughout product development pathways from pre-clinical studies to country implementation of novel health interventions. This review illustrates the utility of simulation approaches by reviewing the literature on malaria vaccine modelling, with a focus on its link to the development of policy guidance for the first licensed product, RTS,S/AS01. The main contributions of modelling studies have been in inferring the mechanism of action and efficacy profile of RTS,S; to predicting the public health impact; and economic modelling mainly comprising cost-effectiveness analysis. The value of both product-specific and generic modelling of vaccines is highlighted.

Analysis of the potential for a malaria vaccine to reduce gaps in malaria intervention coverage

Background

The RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine is currently being evaluated in a cluster-randomized pilot implementation programme in three African countries. This study seeks to identify whether vaccination could reach additional children who are at risk from malaria but do not currently have access to, or use, core malaria interventions.

Methods

Using data from household surveys, the overlap between malaria intervention coverage and childhood vaccination (diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis dose 3, DTP3) uptake in 20 African countries with at least one first administrative level unit with Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence greater than 10% was calculated. Multilevel logistic regression was used to explore patterns of overlap by demographic and socioeconomic variables. The public health impact of delivering RTS,S/AS01 to those children who do not use an insecticide-treated net (ITN), but who received the DTP3 vaccine, was also estimated.

Results

Uptake of DTP3 was higher than malaria intervention coverage in most countries. Overall, 34% of children did not use ITNs and received DTP3, while 35% of children used ITNs and received DTP3, although this breakdown varied by country. It was estimated that there are 33 million children in these 20 countries who do not use an ITN. Of these, 23 million (70%) received the DTP3 vaccine. Vaccinating those 23 million children who receive DTP3 but do not use an ITN could avert up to an estimated 9.7 million (range 8.5–10.8 million) clinical malaria cases each year, assuming all children who receive DTP3 are administered all four RTS,S doses. An additional 10.8 million (9.5–12.0 million) cases could be averted by vaccinating those 24 million children who receive the DTP3 vaccine and use an ITN. Children who had access to or used an ITN were 9–13% more likely to reside in rural areas compared to those who had neither intervention regardless of vaccination status. Mothers’ education status was a strong predictor of intervention uptake and was positively associated with use of ITNs and vaccination uptake and negatively associated with having access to an ITN but not using it. Wealth was also a strong predictor of intervention coverage.

Conclusions

Childhood vaccination to prevent malaria has the potential to reduce inequity in access to existing malaria interventions and could substantially reduce the childhood malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa, even in regions with lower existing DTP3 coverage.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-03966-x.

Cost-effectiveness and public health impact of RTS,S/AS01 E malaria vaccine in Malawi, using a Markov static model

Background: The RTS,S/AS01 _E malaria vaccine is being assessed in Malawi, Ghana and Kenya as part of a large-scale pilot implementation programme. Even if impactful, its incorporation into immunisation programmes will depend on demonstrating cost-effectiveness. We analysed the cost-effectiveness and public health impact of the RTS,S/AS01 _E malaria vaccine use in Malawi.

Methods: We calculated the Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted by vaccination and compared it to Malawi’s mean per capita Gross Domestic Product. We used a previously validated Markov model, which simulated malaria progression in a 2017 Malawian birth cohort for 15 years. We used a 46% vaccine efficacy, 75% vaccine coverage, USD5 estimated cost per vaccine dose, published local treatment costs for clinical malaria and Malawi specific malaria indicators for interventions such as bed net and antimalarial use. We took a healthcare provider, household and societal perspective. Costs were discounted at 3% per year, no discounting was applied to DALYs. For public health impact, we calculated the DALYs, and malaria events averted.

Results: The ICER/DALY averted was USD115 and USD109 for the health system perspective and societal perspective respectively, lower than GDP per capita of USD398.6 for Malawi. Sensitivity analyses exploring the impact of variation in vaccine costs, vaccine coverage rate and coverage of four doses showed vaccine implementation would be cost-effective across a wide range of different outcomes. RTS,S/AS01 was predicted to avert a median of 93,940 (range 20,490–126,540) clinical cases and 394 (127–708) deaths for the three-dose schedule, or 116,480 (31,450–160,410) clinical cases and 484 (189–859) deaths for the four-dose schedule, per 100 000 fully vaccinated children.

Conclusions: We predict the introduction of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in the Malawian expanded programme of immunisation (EPI) likely to be highly cost effective.

Is modelling complexity always needed? Insights from modelling PrEP introduction in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Mathematical models can be powerful policymaking tools. Simple, static models are user-friendly for policymakers. More complex, dynamic models account for time-dependent changes but are complicated to understand and produce. Under which conditions are static models adequate? We compare static and dynamic model predictions of whether behavioural disinhibition could undermine the impact of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision to female sex workers in South Africa.

METHODS

A static model of HIV risk was developed and adapted into a dynamic model. Both models were used to estimate the possible reduction in condom use, following PrEP introduction, without increasing HIV risk. The results were compared over a 20-year time horizon, in two contexts: at epidemic equilibrium and during an increasing epidemic.

RESULTS

Over time horizons of up to 5 years, the models are consistent. Over longer timeframes, the static model overstates the tolerated reduction in condom use where initial condom use is reasonably high ($\ge$50%) and/or PrEP effectiveness is low ($\le$45%), especially during an increasing epidemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Static models can provide useful deductions to guide policymaking around the introduction of a new HIV intervention over short-medium time horizons of up to 5 years. Over longer timeframes, static models may not sufficiently emphasise situations of programmatic importance, especially where underlying epidemics are still increasing.

Hyaluronan is a natural and effective immunological adjuvant for protein-based vaccines

One of the main goals of vaccine research is the development of adjuvants that can enhance immune responses and are both safe and biocompatible. We explored the application of the natural polymer hyaluronan (HA) as a promising immunological adjuvant for protein-based vaccines. Chemical conjugation of HA to antigens strongly increased their immunogenicity, reduced booster requirements, and allowed antigen dose sparing. HA-based bioconjugates stimulated robust and long-lasting humoral responses without the addition of other immunostimulatory compounds and proved highly efficient when compared to other adjuvants. Due to its intrinsic biocompatibility, HA allowed the exploitation of different injection routes and did not induce inflammation at the inoculation site. This polymer promoted rapid translocation of the antigen to draining lymph nodes, thus facilitating encounters with antigen-presenting cells. Overall, HA can be regarded as an effective and biocompatible adjuvant to be exploited for the design of a wide variety of vaccines.

Meeting report: WHO consultation on malaria vaccine development, Geneva, 15-16 July 2019

Considerable progress has been made in malaria control in the last two decades, but progress has stalled in the last few years. New tools are needed to achieve public health goals in malaria control and elimination. A first generation vaccine, RTS,S/AS01, is currently being evaluated as it undergoes pilot implementation through routine health systems in parts of three African countries. The development of this vaccine took over 30 years and has been full of uncertainties. Even now, important unknowns remain as to its future role in public health. Lessons need to be learnt for second generation and future vaccines, including how to facilitate early planning of investments, streamlining of development, regulatory and policy pathways. A number of candidate vaccines populate the current development pipeline, some of which have the potential to contribute to burden reduction if efficacy is confirmed in conditions of natural exposure, and if they are amenable to affordable supply and programmatic implementation. New, innovative technologies will be needed if future malaria vaccines are to overcome important scientific hurdles and induce durable, high level protection. WHO convened a stakeholder consultation on the status of malaria vaccine research and development to inform the recently reconstituted Malaria Vaccine Advisory Committee (MALVAC) which will assist WHO in updating its current guidance and recommendations about priorities and product preferences for malaria vaccines.