Mortality decrease according to socioeconomic groups during the economic crisis in Spain: a cohort study of 36 million people

What is the relationship between changes in the size of economies and mortality derived population health measures in high income countries: A causal systematic review

CONTEXT

The economy has been long recognised as an important determinant of population health and a healthy population is considered important for economic prosperity.

AIM

To systematically review the evidence for a causal bidirectional relationship between aggregate economic activity (AEA) at national level for High Income Countries, and 1) population health (using mortality and life expectancy rates as indicators) and 2) inequalities in population health.

METHODS

We undertook a systematic review of quantitative studies considering the relationship between AEA (GDP, GNI, GNP or recession) and population health (mortality or life expectancy) and inequalities for High Income Countries. We searched eight databases and grey literature. Study quality was assessed using an adapted version of the Effective Public Health Practice Project's Quality Assessment tool. We used Gordis' adaptation of the Bradford-Hill framework to assess causality. The studies were synthesised using Cochrane recommended alternative methods to meta-analysis and reported following the Synthesis without Meta-analysis (SWiM) guidelines. We assessed the certainty of the evidence base in line with GRADE principles.

FINDINGS

Of 21,099 records screened, 51 articles were included in our analysis. There was no evidence for a consistent causal relationship (either beneficial or harmful) of changes in AEA leading to changes in population health (as indicated by mortality or life expectancy). There was evidence suggesting that better population health is causally related to greater AEA, but with low certainty. There was insufficient evidence to consider the causal impact of AEA on health inequalities or vice versa.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in AEA in High Income Countries did not have a consistently beneficial or harmful causal relationship with health, suggesting that impacts observed may be contextually contingent. We tentatively suggest that improving population health might be important for economic prosperity. Whether or not AEA and health inequalities are causally linked is yet to be established.

Increase in educational inequalities in alcohol-related mortality in Spain during a period of economic growth

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol-related mortality risk is almost always greater in lower than higher socio-economic positions (SEPs). There is little information on the evolution of this SEP gradient and its relationship with the economic cycle. Some results suggest that during economic expansions, there is a hypersensitivity of low-SEP people to harmful drinking. The main objective of this study was to measure the evolution of educational inequality in alcohol-related and non-alcohol related mortality by sex and age group in Spain during 2012-19.

DESIGN, SETTING AND MEASUREMENTS

This is a repeated cross-sectional study. This study includes all residents in Spain aged 25 years and over from 2012 to 2019. (1) We calculated age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) from strongly/moderately alcohol-related causes (directly alcohol-attributable, unspecified liver cirrhosis, liver and upper aerodigestive tract cancers and moderately alcohol-related), weakly alcohol-related causes and other causes by educational level. (2) We used age-adjusted relative index of inequality (RII) and slope index of inequality (SII) to measure relative and absolute educational inequality in mortality, respectively. (3) Age-adjusted annual percentage change (APC) was also used to measure linear trends in mortality by educational level. RII, SII and APC were obtained from negative binomial regression.

FINDINGS

Between 2012-15 and 2016-19, economic growth accelerated, the RII in mortality from strongly/moderately alcohol-related causes increased from 2.0 to 2.2 among men and from 1.1 to 1.3 among women, and the SII in deaths/100 000 person-years from 181.4 to 190.9 among men and from 18.9 to 46.5 among women. It also increased relative and absolute inequality in mortality from weakly alcohol-related and other causes of death in both men and women. These increases in inequality were due primarily to a flattening or even reversal of the downward mortality trend among low- and medium-educated people.

CONCLUSIONS

During the economic expansion of 2012-19 in Spain, changes in mortality risk from strongly/moderately alcohol-related causes were especially unfavourable among low- and medium-educated people.

Age and cause-of-death contributions to educational inequalities in life expectancy and lifespan variation in a low-mortality country: A cross-sectional study of 1.67 million deaths in Spain (2016-19)

BACKGROUND

We aim to assess the age- and cause-specific contributions to differences in life expectancy and lifespan variation between the high- and low-educated groups in Spain.

METHODS

We use sex-, age-, education- and cause-specific mortality and population data for individuals aged 30 and over for 2016-19 in Spain. We estimated life expectancies, and standard deviations of the age-at-death distribution (lifespan variation), and we disentangled the contribution of age-causes of death to educational differences in both indicators.

FINDINGS

Life expectancy at age 30 was higher for high-educated groups compared to low-educated groups, 5.5 years for males and 3.0 years for females. Lifespan variation was higher for low-educated groups compared to high-educated groups, 2.9 years for males and 2.2 years for females. The main contributors to the life expectancy gaps in males were lung cancer (0.58 years) and ischaemic heart diseases (0.42 years), and in females were other cardiovascular causes (0.26 years), and ischaemic heart diseases (0.22 years). The main contributors to the lifespan variation gaps were in males lung cancer (-0.25 years) and ischaemic heart diseases (-0.22 years), while in females were other neoplasms and other diseases of the nervous system.

INTERPRETATION

Whereas behavioural causes are more important in explaining educational inequalities in mortality among men, ageing-related causes of death seem more important among women. Attempts at narrowing socioeconomic gaps in mortality may benefit from applying gender-specific preventive policy measures.

The Effect of the Great Recession on Italian Life Expectancy

The 2008 economic crisis, also called the Great Recession, produced only a moderate rise in unemployment in Italy, but the consequences for public debt management were far more serious. Italy makes for a good case study for evaluating the effect on life expectancy at birth of the cost containment program in the health care system, implemented after the crisis began. To this end we employed the Artificial Control method using the data from the Human Mortality Database to assess the causal effect of the 2008 economic crisis on the subsequent evolution of life expectancy at birth (until 2019, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic). Our analysis identifies a significant deceleration in the progression of Italian life expectancy. Ten years after the onset of the crisis, Italy appears to have lost almost 1 year of life expectancy with respect to what would have been expected had the crisis never happened.

A 13-Year Study of Fatal Falls From Height in Northern Tunisia

INTRODUCTION

Falls from height are a major cause of unintentional injury death, resulting in high disability and mortality. We investigated the characteristics of fatal falls and their relationship with intentionality, injury patterns, and death on impact.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study, we examined 545 cases of fatal falls from height that underwent autopsy in the forensic department of the Charles Nicolle hospital of Tunis (Tunisia) between January 2008 and December 2020. Cases were reviewed in terms of demographics, fall characteristics, and autopsy findings.

RESULTS

The population was predominately male (86.6%). Four hundred twenty-one (77.3%) originated from accidents, 120 (22%) were found to be suicidal, with 4 homicide cases. A notable decline in cases was noticed following the Jasmine revolution, 2011 (R squared = 0.8). The mean height of falls was 8 m. Higher falls were associated with a set of organ-specific injuries. Organ injury pattern did not differ based on intentionality. Female victims were 2.4 times more likely to sustain pelvic injuries than males. The majority of victims deceased before reaching health care structures. Death on impact was strongly associated with higher falls, cranial impact, and organ-specific injuries, including cardiac, pulmonary, and skull injuries.Falls from height are in many cases preventable. A clearly defined fall safety policy, strict implementation of evidence-based interventions, efficient allocation of resources, and raising safety awareness must to be urgently implemented.

CONCLUSION

Understanding patterns of injury and the factors that influence death on impact may be of further interest in the prevention and management of survivors in the acute period.

An impact of economic slowdown on health. New evidence from 21 European countries

Background

The economic slowdown affects the population's health. Based on a social gradient concept, we usually assume that this detrimental impact results from a lower social status, joblessness, or other related factors. Although many researchers dealt with the relationship between economy and health, the findings are still inconsistent, primarily related to unemployment. This study reinvestigates a relationship between the economy's condition and health by decomposing it into macroeconomic indicators.

Methods

We use data for 21 European countries to estimate the panel models, covering the years 1995–2019. Dependent variables describe population health (objective measures – life expectancy for a newborn and 65 years old, healthy life expectancy, separately for male and female). The explanatory variables primarily represent GDP and other variables describing the public finance and health sectors.

Results

(1) the level of economic activity affects the population’s health – GDP stimulates the life expectancies positively; this finding is strongly statistically significant; (2) the unemployment rate also positively affects health; hence, increasing the unemployment rate is linked to better health – this effect is relatively short-term.

Conclusions

Social benefits or budgetary imbalance may play a protective role during an economic downturn.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13740-6.

Inequalities in life expectancy by educational level and its decomposition in Barcelona, 2004-2018

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the gap in life expectancy by educational level in the city of Barcelona from 2004 to 2018 and to decompose this gap by age and causes of death.

METHOD

We computed abridged life tables at the age of 25 years by sex from 2004 to 2018 using standard methods. Educational level was categorised in two groups (lower secondary or less vs. upper secondary or higher education). The life expectancy gap was further decomposed by age and by causes of death based in Arriaga's method in 5-year age blocks up to the age of ≥ 90 years and broad causes of death using ICD-10 codes.

RESULTS

The life expectancy gap at 25 years by educational level oscillated without trend at around 3.08 years for men and 1.93 years for women. Decomposition by age showed a favourable significant shift in the contribution to this gap from young to older ages for men, with few changes for women. Decomposition by causes of death showed that the diseases concentrating the largest share of the contribution were neoplasms and respiratory and circulatory disease. There was a significant downward trend in external causes for men and in infectious diseases for both men and women but a significant upward trend for respiratory disease for both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

The stability of the life expectancy gap by educational level during the period analysed resulted from a combination of divergent trends by age and causes of death among high and low educational levels.

The long-term effect of the Great Recession on European mortality

Some European countries, such as Greece and Spain, were severely hit by the 2008 economic crisis whereas others, such as Germany, were practically spared by it. This divergence allowed us to implement a difference in differences research design which offered the possibility to observe the long-lasting effects produced by the crisis on European life expectancy. Our analysis—based on Eurostat data from 2001 to 2019—shows that life expectancy increased faster, after the onset of the crisis, in those countries where the rise in unemployment was more intense. Furthermore, our results show that this gain in life expectancy persisted, and sometimes further increased, until 2019 when most macro-economic variables had returned to their pre-crisis values. Previous research has identified that mortality behaves procyclically in developed countries: when the economy slows down mortality decreases and vice versa. Our findings show, by contrast, that life expectancy behaves asymmetrically: it responded to an increase but not to a decrease in unemployment. This calls for a reconsideration of the causal mechanisms linking together the economic cycle and mortality in developed countries.

The Influence of Economic Factors on the Relationship between Partnership Status and Health: A Gender Approach to the Spanish Case

This study explores the relevance of economic factors (e.g., a household's economic capacity and the prevailing economic context) to understand the relationship between the partnership status and the health of Spanish adult women and men (age 30-59). To do so, it draws on cross-sectional data from the Spanish sample of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) for the years 2005, 2010, and 2015 (i.e., before, during, and after the 2008-2012 economic recession). The results reveal dissimilar patterns of association between partnership status and both the health of, and the economic difficulties faced by Spanish women and men in each of the three years studied. Most notably, the partnership status of Spanish women has a greater impact on their likelihood of experiencing economic difficulties and poor health than does that of their male counterparts. Additionally, women are also more likely to experience economic difficulties during and after the economic recession. The disadvantageous situation of Spanish women in the public sphere is shown to have a negative impact on their ability to cope with the economic difficulties associated with the end of a union and a contextual recession.

Mortality differences between migrants and Italians residing in Rome before, during, and in the aftermath of the great recession. A longitudinal cohort study from 2001 to 2015

Background

In Europe, one of the most consistent findings is that of migrant mortality advantage in high-income countries. Furthermore, the literature shows that economic shocks, which bring worse health outcomes, can severely affect the most disadvantaged individuals. We analyse differences and changes in all-cause mortality between Italians and migrants residing in Rome before, during, and in the aftermath of the Great Recession (2001–2015) by birth-cohort.

Methods

The analysis is a longitudinal open cohort study. Mortality data come from the Register of the Causes of Death (58,637 deaths) and the population denominator (n = 2,454,410) comes from the Municipal Register of Rome. By comparing three time-periods (2001–2005, 2006–2010, and 2011–2015), we analyse all-cause mortality of Rome residents born, respectively, in the intervals 1937–1976, 1942–1981, 1947–1986 (aged 25–64 years at entry into observation). Computing birth-cohort-specific death rates and applying parametric survival models with age as the time-scale, we compare mortality differences between migrants and Italians by gender, area of origin, and time-period.

Results

Overall, we find a lower risk of dying for migrants than Italians regardless of gender (Women: HR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.56–0.66; Men: HR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.45–0.53), and a lower death risk over time for the total population. Nevertheless, such a pattern changes according to gender and migrants’ area of origin.

Conclusion

Given the relevance of international migrations in Europe, studying migrants’ health has proved increasingly important. The deterioration in migrant health and the gradual weakening of migrants’ mortality advantage is likely to become a public health issue with important consequences for the healthcare system of all European countries.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-12176-8.

Business cycle and mortality in Spain

In the last couple of decades, there has been a lot of interest on the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on health and mortality rates. Many studies, for different countries, find that mortality is procyclical. However, studies examining the effects of more recent recessions are less conclusive, finding mortality to be less procyclical, or even countercyclical. In this paper, using data of Spanish provinces from 1999 to 2016, we investigate how this relationship works in the context of a country that is subject to extreme business cycle fluctuations. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of unemployment for different mortality causes and we explore differences by sex, age group and level of education. In general terms, we find mortality to be procyclical so that when the economy is in a recession, mortality falls. When exploring mortality causes, we show that deaths from cardiovascular disease, cancer, senility, transport accidents and homicides are procyclical. By sex, we find procyclicality for both men and women. By age, mortality is procyclical for all age groups; however, the causes of death that result in this procyclical behavior are specific to each age group. By educational level, suicide appears as a countercyclical cause for individuals with intermediate levels of education.

Avoidable mortality for causes amenable to medical care and suicide in physicians in Spain

OBJECTIVE

To compare avoidable mortality for causes amenable to medical care and suicide in physicians versus other professionals with similar university studies and socioeconomic position in Spain.

METHODS

All people aged 25-64 years who were employed on 1 November 2001 (8,697,387 men and 5,282,611 women) were included. Their vital status was followed for 10 years and the cause of death of deceased was recorded. Using a Poisson regression to estimate the mortality rate ratio (MRR), we compared mortality due to causes of death amenable to medical care, all other causes, and suicide in physicians versus other professionals. Mortality in physicians was used as a reference.

RESULTS

The lowest MRR for causes amenable to medical care was observed in engineers/architects (men: 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72, 0.97; women: 0.93, 95% CI 0.64, 1.35) and healthcare professions other than physicians/pharmacists/nurses (men: 0.86, 95% CI 0.56, 1.34; women: 0.69, 95% CI 0.32, 1.46). Regarding mortality for all other causes of death, professionals from these and other occupations presented lower mortality than physicians. Other healthcare professions, entrepreneurs, and managers/executives completed suicide at a higher rate than physicians.

CONCLUSION

Although the accessibility to the healthcare system and to the pharmacological drugs could suggest that physicians would present low rates for causes amenable to medical care and high rates of suicide, our results show that this is not the case in Spain.

Educational inequalities in suicide in the highly volatile economy of Argentina

PURPOSE

Little is known about how economic fluctuations affect educational inequalities in mortality in low- or middle-income countries. The objective of this study is to analyze the temporal variations in educational differentials in suicide in four Argentinian provinces.

METHODS

Data on suicides for ages 25 years and over and three age groups (25-44, 45-64, and 65 +) in four Argentinian provinces during the period 1999-2013 were linked to population data and information on the educational level of the deceased. Regression models were estimated using age, sex, year, province of residence, educational level, and economic character of the year (expansion or recession) as explanatory variables.

RESULTS

The educational gap in suicide mortality widened since the expansion following the crisis of 1999-2002, and then only decreased in 2005 and 2011. For ages 45-64, the confidence intervals of the suicide rate overlapped each year, and the suicide rate of the middle-high education population exceeded the suicide rate of the low-education population in 2 recession years, 1999 and 2002. Considering the years of economic expansion or recession as a dichotomous variable, at ages 45-64 differences in suicide rates by educational level disappeared during years of recession, while they were present in years of expansion.

CONCLUSION

Suicides rise during economic downturns but these periods could reduce the educational gaps of suicide mortality by increasing the vulnerability of adults of high educational level to changes in the economy.

Long-term impact of the 2008 economic crisis in Spain on road traffic collisions mortality by socioeconomic position

We aimed to assess the effect of the 2008 crisis on road traffic collision (RTC) mortality in Spain, by socioeconomic position (SEP) and type of road use. This prospective, country-wide study covered all adults living in Spain and aged ≥30 years in November 2001. The long-term effect of the crisis was assessed by measuring the monthly percentage change (MPC) in RTC mortality between the pre-crisis (2002-2007) and crisis period (2008-2011). During the recession, RTC mortality fell more in people with low compared to high SEP, so MPCs difference between periods were of a higher magnitude in the low compared to high SEP groups, especially among men motorcyclists. RTC mortality trends were favorable following the 2008 crisis, particularly among low-SEP groups. In men motorcyclists, the upward trend of the pre-crisis period reversed course.

Suicide time-series structural change analysis in Portugal (1913-2018): Impact of register bias on suicide trends

BACKGROUND

Suicide is a potentially preventable cause of death. Epidemiology might help to identify death determinants and to monitor prevention strategies. Few studies address secular trends in suicide deaths, and even fewer describe trend-changes in relation to data collection/registration bias. Moreover, suicide is admittedly underreported. It is crucial to validate results in the context of other external causes of death trends, such as unintentional and undetermined intent deaths. We aimed to explore trends in suicide and other external causes of death in Portugal from the inception of registries until 2018, considering breaks in series.

METHODS

We collected data from all available official primary sources. We calculated cause-specific age-standardized death rates (SDR) by sex for ages equal or higher than 15 years with reference to the European Standard Population. We considered suicide (S), undetermined intent deaths (UnD), accidents (Accs), and all causes of death (ttMty). A time-series structural analysis was executed.

RESULTS

Suicide and other external causes of death rates were consistently higher in males than females. A global decline of deaths by suicide, undetermined intention and unintentional is observable. Breakpoints in years 1930, 1954, 1982, 2000-2001 were associated with major changes in deaths registration procedures or methodology.

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemiology of suicide in Portugal has changed over 106 years. However, adjusted data and consideration of bias reduce trends fluctuation. Trend changes are akin to specific changes in methodology of death registry. Suicide surveillance will improve with more reliable and stable procedures.

No effect of the Penalty Point System on road traffic accident mortality among men with a high socioeconomic status in Spain

The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of the Penalty Point System (PPS) on road traffic accident mortality by gender and socioeconomic status. We conducted a nationwide prospective study covering adult people living in Spain on November 2001. They were followed up until 30 Nov 2007 to determine vital status and cause of death. An interrupted time-series analysis was used to assess whether PPS (explanatory variable) had both immediate and long-term effect on the rates of road traffic accident mortality (RTAMs) separately by gender. Subjects were classified by socioeconomic status (low and high) using two indicators: educational attainment (up to lower secondary education; upper secondary education or more) and occupation (manual and non-manual workers). We performed several segmented Poisson regression models, controlling for trend, seasonality, 2004 road safety measures and fuel consumption as proxy for traffic exposure. Among men, we found a decrease on the RTAMs immediately after PPS in those with low educational level (16.2 %, IC95 %: 6.1 %-25.2 %) and manual workers (16.3 %, IC95 %: 2.8 %-27.8 %), and a non-significant increase among those with high education level and non-manual workers (6.2 % and 1.8 %). Among women, there were no significant differences in the immediate effect of PPS by socioeconomic status. We did not identify significant trend changes between pre-PPS and post-PPS periods in any socioeconomic group. In a context of downward trend of traffic mortality, the PPS implementation led to an immediate reduction on death rates only among men with a low socioeconomic status.

Inequalities in the long-term impact of the economic recession on preventive healthcare use and health-related lifestyle in Spain (2006-2017)

Study of the long-term impact of economic recession on lifestyle according to socioeconomic groups is scarce. This study examines health-related lifestyle and preventive medical attendance in different socioeconomic groups in the Spanish adult population (18-64 years of age) before, during and after an economic recession. Data were collected from three waves of the Spanish National Health Survey (2006, 2012 and 2017). Self-perceived health, health-related lifestyle and common preventive medical attendance were evaluated by means of multivariate logistic models. The increase in good self-perceived health in 2006-2012 was 7.1%, 6.9% and 8.3% for the high, middle and low group, respectively, and 5.2%, 5.9% and 7.9% for the high, middle and low group, respectively, in 2006-2017. In 2006-2012 and 2006-2017, the gap increased between people of the high and low groups in smoking prevalence (2.8%-4.7%), physical activity (2.0%-4.0%), daily fruit (1.0%-6.3%) and vegetable intake (2.5%-6.1%). The probability of women´s gynaecological attendance increased statistically significant for cytology in three groups in 2006-2012 and 2006-2017 (OR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.08-1.67; OR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.18-1.7; OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.21-1.47 for the high, middle and low groups, respectively, in 2006-2012 and OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.08-1.67; OR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.35-1.95; OR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.37-1.66 for the high, middle and low groups, respectively, in 2006-2017), but not for mammography. This study reveals long-term socioeconomic inequalities in lifestyle behaviours after the economic recession. Health policies must be emphasised in these population subgroups and in more disadvantaged populations.

Economic fluctuations and urban-rural differences in educational inequalities in mortality in the Baltic countries and Finland in 2000-2015: a register-based study

We examined urban-rural differences in educational inequalities in mortality in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Finland in the context of macroeconomic changes. Educational inequalities among 30–74 year olds were examined in 2000–2003, 2004–2007, 2008–2011 and 2012–2015 using census-linked longitudinal mortality data. We estimated age-standardized mortality rates and the relative and slope index of inequality. Overall mortality rates were larger in rural areas except among Finnish women. Relative educational inequalities in mortality were often larger in urban areas among men but in rural areas among women. Absolute inequalities were mostly larger in rural areas excepting Finnish men. Between 2000–2003 and 2012–2015 relative inequalities increased in most countries while absolute inequalities decreased except in Lithuania. In the Baltic countries the changes in both relative and absolute inequalities tended to be more favorable in urban areas; in Finland they were more favorable in rural areas. The overall pattern changed during the reccessionary period from 2004–2007 to 2008–2011 when relative inequalities often diminished or the increase slowed, while the decrease in absolute inequalities accelerated with larger improvements observed in urban areas. Despite substantial progress in reducing overall mortality rates in both urban and rural areas in all countries, low educated men and women in rural areas in the Baltic countries are becoming increasingly disadvantaged in terms of mortality reduction.

An analysis of death trends in Argentina, 1990-2017, with emphasis on the effects of economic crises

Background

Economic crises have heterogeneous effects on population-level mortality between high- and low- or middle-income countries. Argentina - a middle income country- has suffered economic crises repeatedly over the past 30 years and is a model case study for the effects of economic crises on mortality.

Methods

Over 28 years (1990-2017), all death records in Argentina were analysed at the most disaggregated level possible (departments, that is, second-level administrative divisions). Age-and-sex-standardized all-cause mortality, premature death (<75 years) and the probability of death at different ages for both the entire population and each socio-economic quintile were calculated by level of unsatisfied basic needs (UBNs). Standardized rates are reported as biannual average and 95% confidence interval.

Results

Considered globally since the beginning of the series and using the 1990-1 biennium as a reference category, the standardized death rate was significantly reduced from biennium 2 (1992-3) to biennium 14 (2016-7), interrupted by two statistically significant increases in mortality, in years 2002-3 and 2016-7. In 2002-3, women had greater increase in mortality than men, and in 2016-7, even more so. The probability of dying before 75 years of age increased significantly in the last biennium, mostly among people between 50 and 74 years in the most deprived quintiles.

Conclusions

Despite significant overall improvement over time, economic crises impose severe increases in mortality, especially among vulnerable groups such as the poor, the elderly, and women.

Macroeconomic fluctuations and educational inequalities in suicide mortality among working-age men in the Baltic countries and Finland in 2000-2015: A register-based study

INTRODUCTION

In the 2000s, the Baltic countries experienced unprecedented economic growth followed by a deep recession. This study aimed to examine changes and educational inequalities in suicide mortality among working-age men in the Baltic countries and Finland in relation to macroeconomic fluctuations.

METHODS

We analysed changes in overall suicide mortality and by educational level between the 2000-2003, 2004-2007, 2008-2011 and 2012-2015 periods among men aged 30-64 years using census-linked longitudinal mortality data. We estimated age-standardised mortality rates, mortality rate ratios (Poisson regression), the relative index of inequality and slope index of inequality.

RESULTS

Overall suicide mortality fell markedly from 2000-2003 to 2004-2007. The decline was largest among high educated men in the Baltic countries and among middle and low educated men in Finland. From 2004-2007 to 2008-2011, the positive trend slowed and while suicide mortality continued to fall among middle and low educated men, it increased somewhat among high educated men in all Baltic countries. In Finland, suicide mortality decreased among the high educated and increased slightly among low educated men.

CONCLUSIONS

In the Baltic countries, lower educated men had a smaller decline in suicide mortality than higher educated men during a period of rapid economic expansion, however, they were not more disadvantaged during the recession, possibly because of being less exposed to financial loss. Consequently, relative inequalities in suicide mortality may increase during economic booms and decrease during recessions.

An analysis of death trends in Argentina, 1990-2017, with emphasis on the effects of economic crises

BACKGROUND

Economic crises have heterogeneous effects on population-level mortality between high- and low- or middle-income countries. Argentina - a middle income country- has suffered economic crises repeatedly over the past 30 years and is a model case study for the effects of economic crises on mortality.

METHODS

Over 28 years (1990-2017), all death records in Argentina were analysed at the most disaggregated level possible (departments, that is, second-level administrative divisions). Age-and-sex-standardized all-cause mortality, premature death (<75 years) and the probability of death at different ages for both the entire population and each socio-economic quintile were calculated by level of unsatisfied basic needs (UBNs). Standardized rates are reported as biannual average and 95% confidence interval.

RESULTS

Considered globally since the beginning of the series and using the 1990-1 biennium as a reference category, the standardized death rate was significantly reduced from biennium 2 (1992-3) to biennium 14 (2016-7), interrupted by two statistically significant increases in mortality, in years 2002-3 and 2016-7. In 2002-3, women had greater increase in mortality than men, and in 2016-7, even more so. The probability of dying before 75 years of age increased significantly in the last biennium, mostly among people between 50 and 74 years in the most deprived quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite significant overall improvement over time, economic crises impose severe increases in mortality, especially among vulnerable groups such as the poor, the elderly, and women.

Trends in disease-free life expectancy at age 65 in Spain: Diverging patterns by sex, region and disease

Life expectancy in Spain is among the highest in the world. Nevertheless, we do not know if improvements in health conditions at older ages have followed postponements of death. Previous studies in Spain show a stable trend in years lived in ill health in the past. In this paper we investigate changes between 2006, 2012 and 2017 in life expectancy with and without disease at age 65 in Spain and, for the first time, in Spanish regions, which have autonomous powers of health planning, public health and healthcare. Results show that, at the country level, disease-free life expectancy reduced between 2006 and 2017 in Spain. This was explained by an expansion of most diseases except for some cardiovascular and respiratory chronic conditions. However, at the regional level the evolution was different, especially regarding each disease and sex. First, regional differences reduced between 2006 and 2012 but largely widened in 2017, suggesting that not all regions had the same ability to recover after the 2008 financial crisis that caused government cuts to health services. Second, regional analysis also highlighted diverging trends by sex. While men experienced expansion of morbidity in most regions, women experienced a compression in about half of them, ending up with women showing higher disease-free life expectancies than men in 9 out of the 17 regions considered. This study, then, calls attention to the importance of focusing the analysis of health surveillance to more disaggregated levels, more in accordance with the level of health management, as regional trends showed heterogeneity in the prevalence of diseases and different progresses in the relationship between sexes.

Socio-economic inequalities on cancer mortality in nine European areas: The effect of the last economic recession

BACKGROUND

The effect of inequalities aggravated by economic recessions in the mortality rates of certain diseases has been previously described. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between socio-economic deprivation and cancer mortality. We focused on lung, colon, prostate, and breast cancers in nine European urban areas over three periods: two before (2000-2003 and 2004-2008) and one after (2009-2014) the onset of the 2008 financial crisis.

METHODS

This is an ecological study of trends. The units of analysis were small areas within nine European urban areas. We used a composite deprivation index as a socio-economic indicator. As a mortality indicator, we used the smoothed standardized mortality ratio, calculated using the hierarchical Bayesian model proposed by Besag, York and Mollié. To analyze the evolution of socio-economic inequalities, we fitted an ecological regression model that included the socio-economic indicator, the period of time, and the interaction between these terms.

RESULTS

In men, socio-economic inequalities in all-cancer and lung cancer mortality were observed in most of the cities studied, but did not increase after the onset of the economic crisis. In women, only two cities (Stockholm and London) showed socio-economic inequalities in all-cancer and lung cancer mortality; there was also no increase in inequalities.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results did not validate our hypothesis that inequalities increase in times of crisis. However, they emphasize the importance of socio-economic measurements for understanding mortality inequalities, and can be used to inform prevention strategies and help plan local health programs aimed at reducing health inequalities.

Changes in drug and alcohol-related mortality by educational status during the 2008-2011 economic crisis: Results from a Spanish longitudinal study

INTRODUCTION

The objective was to assess changes in drug- and alcohol-related mortality by educational attainment during the last financial crisis in Spain.

METHODS

Data came from the 2001 Census Longitudinal Study. We included 22.2 million residents in Spain aged ≥35 at census date followed-up until December 2011. Outcomes were drug-related mortality (DRM) and deaths directly attributable to alcohol (DDA). Mortality risks before and during the crisis were assessed using age-standardized rates and educational inequalities by estimating age-adjusted Rate Ratios (RR) and Relative Indexes of inequality (RII) between educational groups.

RESULTS

During the first four year of the crisis, DRM and DDA in men and women increased in all educational subgroups except for DRM in men with tertiary studies (-15%). The increase in mortality was larger in those with higher educational status, with women with tertiary studies experiencing the largest increases in DRM (+100%) and DDA (+114%). Mortality risks for both outcomes followed an educational gradient before and during the crisis in men and women, with those with primary studies being at higher risk. Absolute and relative measures of inequality decreased during the crisis, except for DRM in men.

CONCLUSIONS

DRM and DDA follow an inverse educational gradient, with those with primary studies being at higher risk. During the last financial crisis, DRM decreased only in men with tertiary studies, with DRM and DDA increasing in all other groups. The increase was larger in those with higher educational status, reducing inequalities in all groups except of DRM in men.

Effect of the Financial Crisis on Socioeconomic Inequalities in Mortality in Small Areas in Seven Spanish Cities

Background: The aim of this study was to analyze the trend in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in small areas due to several specific causes before (2001–2004, 2005–2008) and during (2009–2012) the economic crisis in seven Spanish cities. Methods: This ecological study of trends, with census tracts as the areas of analysis, was based on three periods. Several causes of death were studied. A socioeconomic deprivation index was calculated for each census tract. For each small area, we estimated standardized mortality ratios, and controlled for their variability using Bayesian models (sSMR). We also estimated the relative risk of mortality according to deprivation in the different cities, periods, and sexes. Results: In general, a similar geographical pattern was found for the socioeconomic deprivation index and sSMR. For men, there was an association in all cities between the deprivation index and all-cause mortality that remained stable over the three periods. For women, there was an association in Barcelona, Granada, and Sevilla between the deprivation index and all-cause mortality in the third period. Patterns by causes of death were more heterogeneous. Conclusions: After the start of the financial crisis, socioeconomic inequalities in total mortality in small areas of Spanish cities remained stable in most cities, although several causes of death showed a different pattern.

Effect of the recent economic crisis on socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in nine urban areas in Europe

OBJECTIVE

To analyse socioeconomic inequalities in all-cause mortality among men and women in nine European urban areas during the recent economic crisis, and to compare the results to those from two periods before the crisis.

METHOD

This is an ecological study of trends based on three time periods (2000-2003, 2004-2008 and 2009-2014). The units of analysis were the small areas of nine European urban areas. We used a composite deprivation index as a socioeconomic indicator, along with other single indicators. As a mortality indicator, we used the smoothed standardized mortality ratio, calculated using the hierarchical Bayesian model proposed by Besag, York and Mollié. To analyse the evolution of socioeconomic inequalities, we fitted an ecological regression model that included the socioeconomic indicator, the period of time, and the interaction between these terms.

RESULTS

We observed significant inequalities in mortality among men for almost all the socioeconomic indicators, periods, and urban areas studied. However, no significant changes occurred during the period of the economic crisis. While inequalities among women were less common, there was a statistically significant increase in inequality during the crisis period in terms of unemployment and the deprivation index in Prague and Stockholm, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Future analyses should also consider time-lag in the effect of crises on mortality and specific causes of death, and differential effects between genders.

[Permanent disability and premature mortality in a cohort of affiliates with the Spanish Social Security, 2004-2015]

OBJECTIVE

To describe a surveillance and monitoring system based on the analysis of the incidence rate of permanent disability (PD) and premature mortality (PM) in a sample of members of the Spanish Social Security.

METHOD

Study of three birth cohorts (1950-1959, 1960-1969 and 1970-1979) of people affiliated to the general Social Security system, included in the Continuous Sample of Labour Lives, who has been active for at least one day between 2004 and 2015 (N = 753,341). For each cohort, the annual incidence rates of PD and MP were estimated according to occupation and economic activity in women and men.

RESULTS

Between 2004 and 2015 the rates of PI and MP showed higher values in men with respect to women in practically all cohorts of births, occupations and economic activities groups. The trend throughout the observation period was increasing, both in the incidence of PD and PM in men and women, for the three birth cohorts and for all occupational categories.

CONCLUSIONS

The results derived from this work allows the continuous monitoring of the temporal evolution of the incidence of permanent disability and premature mortality in a representative sample of social security affiliates.

Stable socioeconomic inequalities in ischaemic heart disease mortality during the economic crisis: a time trend analysis in 2 Spanish settings

Background

Prior studies have identified a decrease in ischaemic heart disease mortality during the recent economic recession. The Spanish population was severely affected by the Great Recession, however, there is little evidence on its effects on socioeconomic inequalities in ischaemic heart disease mortality. This study examines trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality due to ischaemic heart disease (IHD).

Methods

We used linked census records with mortality registers available from the Basque Country and Barcelona city for population above 25 years, between 2001 and 04, the accelerated economic growth period of 2005–08, and 2009–12, with the last period coinciding with the Great Recession. Applying Poisson models, we calculated relative and absolute indexes of inequalities by education level for each period, age group, gender, and site.

Results

We found moderate age-adjusted inequalities in IHD with a gradient of increasing rates through less educational level, but no significant evidence of increasing trends in socioeconomic inequalities in IHD mortality, rather an inverted U-shape time trend in some groups below 75 years in relative inequalities. Absolute inequalities decrease in the last period except for women from 50 to 64 years.

Conclusions

This study shows that the economic crisis has not increased socioeconomic inequalities in IHD mortality in two geographical settings in Spain.

Reversal of Upward Trends in Mortality During the Great Recession by Employment Status at Baseline in a National Longitudinal Study

Because of the healthy worker effect, mortality rates increased in individuals who were employed and those who were unemployed, and decreased in those economically inactive at baseline in reported studies. To determine if such trends continue during economic recessions, we analyzed mortality rates in Spain before and during the Great Recession in these subgroups. We included 21,933,351 individuals who were employed, unemployed, or inactive in November 2001 and aged 30-64 years in each calendar-year of follow-up (2002-2011). Annual age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated in each group. The annual percentage change in mortality rates adjusted for age and educational level in employed and unemployed persons were also calculated for 2002-2007 and 2008-2011. In employed and unemployed men, mortality rates increased until 2007 and then declined, whereas in employed and unemployed women, mortality rates increased and then stabilized during 2008-2011. The mortality rate among inactive men and women decreased throughout the follow-up. In the employed and the unemployed, the annual percentage change was reversed during 2008-2011 compared with 2002-2007 (-1.2 vs. 3.2 in employed men; -0.3 vs. 4.1 in employed women; -0.8 vs. 2.9 in unemployed men; and -0.6 vs. 1.3 in unemployed women). The upward trends in mortality rates among individuals who were employed or unemployed in 2001 were reversed during the Great Recession (2008-2011).

What can public health do for the welfare state? Occupational health could be an answer

BACKGROUND

The welfare state has a long history of uncertain future. Nonetheless, health indicators of people living in countries with a more universal and generous welfare state remain better than those living under less generous and more individualist welfare regimes. In this essay, we reflect on how occupational health, as part of public health, can contribute to the sustainability of the welfare state.

METHODS

Over the course of the political and social transformations of the State, from single guarantor of security to assuming civil and social rights, the practice of public health has added, to its original objectives related to the control of epidemics of contagious diseases, the promotion of health and the reduction of inequalities in health. In the context of the 2030 Agenda of Sustainable Development Goals, there is a great opportunity to expand the welfare state through public health policies.

RESULTS

On the other hand, the welfare state is only possible when persons are employed in the formal sector. Through their taxes, workers and employers support the welfare state. Occupational health, by preventing injury and illness, and promoting the health of working people, can contribute significantly to the existence of decent work and a quality labour market.

CONCLUSION

The mission of occupational health is to help people enjoy a healthy and prolonged working life, as a critical component of human well-being.

Trends in disease mortality before and during the Great Recession in individuals employed in Spain in 2001

BACKGROUND

Previous studies on economic recessions and mortality due to cancer and other chronic diseases have yielded inconsistent findings. We investigated the trend in all-disease mortality and mortality due to several specific diseases before and during the Great Recession of 2008 in individuals who were employed in 2001, at the beginning of follow-up.

METHODS

We follow in a nationwide longitudinal study over 15 million subjects who had a job in Spain in 2001. The analysed outcomes were mortality at ages 25-64 years due to all diseases, cancer and other chronic diseases. We calculated annual mortality rates from 2003 to 2011, and the annual percentage change (APC) in mortality rates during 2003-07 and 2008-11, as well as the effect size, measured by the APC difference between the two periods.

RESULTS

All-disease mortality increased from 2003 to 2007 in both men and women; then, between 2008 and 2011, all-disease mortality decreased in men and reached a plateau in women. In men, the APC in the all-disease mortality rate was 1.6 in 2003-07 and -1.4 in 2008-11 [effect size -3.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) -3.7 to -2.2]; in women it was 2.5 and -0.3 (effect size -2.8, 95% CI -4.2 to -1.3), respectively. Cancer mortality and mortality due to other chronic diseases revealed similar trends.

CONCLUSIONS

In the group of individuals with a job in 2001 the Great Recession reversed or stabilized the upward trend in all-disease mortality.

Mortality and Macroeconomic Conditions: What Can We Learn From France?

This study uses aggregate panel data on French départements to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and mortality from 1982 to 2014. We find no consistent relationship between macroeconomic conditions and all-cause mortality in France. The results are robust across different specifications, over time, and across different geographic levels. However, we find that heterogeneity across age groups and mortality causes matters. Furthermore, in areas with a low average educational level, a large population, and a high share of migrants, mortality is significantly countercyclical. Similar to the case in the United States, the relationship between the unemployment rate and mortality seems to have moved from slightly procyclical to slightly countercyclical over the period of analysis.

Cardiovascular mortality and risk behaviours by degree of urbanization before, during and after the economic crisis in Spain

BACKGROUND

To estimate the relationship of the degree of urbanization to cardiovascular mortality and to risk behaviours before, during and after the 2008 economic crisis in Spain.

METHODS

In three areas of residence - large urban areas, small urban areas and rural areas - we calculated the rate of premature mortality (0-74 years) from cardiovascular diseases before the crisis (2005-2007), during the crisis (2008-2010 and 2011-2013) and after the crisis (2014-2016), and the prevalence of risk behaviours in 2006, 2011 and 2016. In each period we estimated the mortality rate ratio (MRR) and the prevalence ratio, taking large urban areas as the reference.

RESULTS

In men, no significant differences were observed in mortality between the two urban areas, while the MRR in rural areas went from 0.92 [95% confidence interval, 0.90-0.94) in 2005-2007 to 0.94 (0.92-0.96) in 2014-2016. In women, no significant differences were observed in mortality between the rural and large urban areas, whereas the MRR in small urban areas decreased from 1.11 (1.08-1.14) in 2005-2007 to 1.06 (1.02-1.09) in 2014-2016. The rural areas had the lowest prevalence of smoking, obesity and physical inactivity in men, and of obesity in women. No significant differences were observed in smoking or physical inactivity by area of residence in women.

CONCLUSION

The pattern of cardiovascular mortality by degree of urbanization was similar before and after the crisis, although in women the excess mortality in small urban areas with respect to large urban areas was smaller after the crisis. The different pattern of risk behaviours in men and women, according to area of residence, could explain these findings.

Fiscal austerity and the health sector: the cost of adjustments

Fiscal austerity policies have been used as responses to economic crises and fiscal deficits in both developed and developing countries. While they vary in regard to their content, intensity and implementation, such models recommend reducing public expenses and social investments, retracting the public service and substituting the private sector in lieu of the State to provide certain services tied to social policies. The present article discusses the main effects of the recent economic crisis on public health based on an updated review with consideration for three dimensions: health risks, epidemiological profiles of different populations, and health policies. In Brazil, the combination of economic crisis and fiscal austerity policies is capable of producing a direr situation than those experienced in developed countries. The country is characterized by historically high levels of social inequality, an under-financed health sector, highly prevalent chronic degenerative diseases and persisting preventable infectious diseases. It is imperative to develop alternatives to mitigate the effects of the economic crisis taking into consideration not only the sustainability of public finance but also public well-being.

Educational inequalities in traffic deaths during fluctuations of the economy in four Argentinian provinces, 1999-2013

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to analyse how educational differentials in traffic mortality changed during economic fluctuations in four Argentinian provinces.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective quantitative analysis of secondary data.

METHODS

Data on fatalities due to traffic injuries (all traffic injuries, pedestrians/cyclists, motorcyclists, car users and unspecified road users) in four Argentinian provinces between 1999 and 2013 were linked to population data and information on the educational level of the deceased to compute mortality rates by educational level. Negative binomial models were estimated using age, sex, year, province of residence, year of economic expansion or recession and educational level as explanatory variables.

RESULTS

Annual traffic mortality differentials by educational level were lower during the period of economic crisis. An absolute increase in traffic mortality was observed in individuals of low educational level during economic expansions, but here, there were no traffic mortality differences for individuals of medium to high educational level. The educational gap in motorcyclist mortality widened during the period of quick economic expansion between 2005 and 2013.

CONCLUSIONS

We found less educational inequality in traffic mortality during an economic crisis in a developing country. However, the educational inequalities for different subtypes of traffic mortality show different patterns of evolution during the cycle of economic expansion and recession. Considering deaths due to traffic injuries, economic growth seems to be riskier for individuals of lower educational level compared with those of medium-high educational level.

Socioeconomic inequalities in health during the Great Recession: A scoping review of the research literature

Aims: The so-called 'Great Recession' in Europe triggered widespread concerns about population health, as reflected by an upsurge in empirical research on the health impacts of the economic crisis. A growing body of empirical studies has also been devoted to socioeconomic inequalities in health during the Great Recession. The aim of the current study is to summarise this health inequality literature by means of a scoping review. Methods: We have performed a scoping review of the research literature (English language) published in the years 2012-2017. Only empirical papers with (a) health status measured on the individual level, (b) information on socioeconomic position (i.e. employment status, educational level, income/wealth, and/or occupational class), and (c) data from European countries in both pre- and post-crisis years were considered relevant. In total, 49 empirical studies fulfilled these inclusion criteria. Results: The empirical findings in the 49 included studies predominantly show that socioeconomic inequalities in health either increased or remained stable from pre- to post-crisis years. Two-thirds (65%) of the studies found evidence of either increasing or partially increasing health inequalities. Thus, people in lower socioeconomic strata fared worse overall in terms of health during the Great Recession, compared to people with higher socioeconomic status. Conclusions: The Great Recession in Europe tends to be followed by increasing socioeconomic inequalities in health. Policymakers should take note of this finding. Widening socioeconomic inequalities in health is a major cause of concern, in particular if health deterioration among 'vulnerable groups' is caused by accelerating cumulative disadvantages.

Evaluation of the Biases in the Studies that Assess the Effects of the Great Recession on Health. A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Our main objective was to evaluate the fundamental biases detected in studies assessing the effects the Great Recession had on health for the case of Spain. As secondary objectives we presented methods to control these biases and to discuss the results of the studies in question if they had controlled for them.

METHODS

We carried out a systematic review of the literature published up to June 2018. We evaluated the biases that could have happened in all the eligible studies.

RESULTS

From the review, we finally selected 53 studies. Of the studies we reviewed, 60.38% or 32 out of 53, were evaluated as having a high risk of bias. The main biases our review revealed were problems with evaluation, time bias, lack of control of unobserved confounding, and non-exogeneity when defining the onset of the Great Recession.

CONCLUSIONS

The results from the studies that controlled the biases were quite consistent. Summing up, the studies reviewed found that the Great Recession increased the risk of declaring poor self-rated health and the deterioration of mental health. Both the mortality rate and the suicide rate may well have increased after the Great Recession, probably after a three- to four-year delay.

Mortality in working-age population during the Great Recession and austerity in Spain

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the mortality trend in Spain before, during and after the economic crisis and austerity policies in the working-age population.

METHODS

From 2005 to 2016 we calculated the annual all-cause mortality rate and the annual mortality rate from the main causes of death in the population aged 15 to 64. We also estimated the linear trends in mortality rates during four time intervals-2005-2007 (before crisis), 2008-2010 (first part of the crisis), 2011-2013 (second part of the crisis and implementation of austerity policies) and 2014-2016 (after the crisis)- by the annual percentage change (APC).

RESULTS

The all-cause mortality rate in men and women showed the greatest decline in 2008-2010 and the smallest decline in 2014-2016. The decline in 2011-2013 was higher than in 2014-2016. The APCs in 2005-2007, 2008-2010, 2011-2013 and 2014-2016 were -2.8, -4.1, -3.0 and -1.5 in men and -1.0. -2.1, -1.1 and -0.6 in women, respectively, although the APC in 2014-2016 in women was not significant. In 2014-2016, cancer mortality showed the largest decrease, mortality from cardiovascular diseases (men), respiratory diseases and traffic accidents reversed and showed an upward trend, and the downward trend in mortality from infectious diseases and digestive diseases was equal to or greater than that observed before the crisis.

CONCLUSION

The decline in all-cause mortality in the working-age population during the economic crisis and the introduction of austerity measures was greater than that observed before and after the economic crisis. The slowing of the decline after the crisis was due to the reversal of the trend in mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.

Socioeconomic status, life expectancy and mortality in a universal healthcare setting: An individual-level analysis of >6 million Catalan residents

We evaluated the association between individual-level socioeconomic status (SES), life expectancy, and mortality, in adult men and women from the general population living in Catalonia, a universal healthcare coverage setting. We used the Catalan Health Surveillance System database, which includes individual-level information on sociodemographic characteristics and mortality for all residents of Catalonia (Spain). We categorized individuals as high, medium, low or very low SES based on annual personal income and welfare receipt. We used 2016 mortality data to estimate life expectancy at age 18, and the probability of death by age, sex and SES categories. We followed a total of 6,027,424 Catalan residents in 2016. Men and women of very low SES had 12.0 and 9.4 years lower life expectancy compared to men and women of high SES, respectively. Low SES was also strongly associated with mortality in both men and women of any age. In the entire adult population of Catalonia, despite the availability of universal, high quality healthcare coverage, low SES is associated with lower life expectancy and higher mortality. Solutions to these large inequalities may combine tailored health promotion and management interventions, with solutions coming from outside of the health sector.

Austerity Policies and Mortality Rates in European Countries, 2011-2015

OBJECTIVES

To assess time trends in mortality rates in European countries for the period 2011 to 2015 by level of austerity measures imposed by governments in response to the economic and financial crisis.

METHODS

We analyzed standardized mortality rates (SMRs) for 2011 through 2015 in 15 European countries based on Eurostat data ( http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database ). We used the Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance (CAPB) in terciles as an independent variable to represent the level of austerity adopted in each country. We conducted a longitudinal analysis of panel data using generalized estimating equation models of SMR. We included interaction terms to assess the influence of time period and level of austerity.

RESULTS

SMRs generally declined in the study period, except in the last year of the study. In 2015, compared with countries in the low-austerity group, countries with intermediate austerity had excess mortality of 40.2 per 100 000 per year and those with high austerity had excess mortality of 31.22 per 100 000 per year.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest a negative effect on mortality in those countries that apply a higher level of austerity.

Effect of the Great Recession on regional mortality trends in Europe

Previous studies have consistently shown the recurrent relationship between macroeconomic cycles and changes in mortality trends, so that recessions are generally associated with periods of faster life expectancy rise, and periods of economic growth with slower reductions or even increases in mortality trends. Here we analyze the link between annual per capita estimates of gross domestic product and daily atmospheric temperatures and standardized death rates for a large ensemble of European regions to describe the effect of the Great Recession on annual and seasonal changes in all-cause human mortality trends. Results show that the countries and regions with the largest (smallest) economic slowdown were also those with the largest (smallest) strengthening of the declining mortality trend. This procyclical evolution of mortality rates is found to be stronger during the cold part of the year, showing that it also depends on the seasonal timing of the underlying causes of death.