Genetic associations with longevity are on average stronger in females than in males

It is long observed that females tend to live longer than males in nearly every country. However, the underlying mechanism remains elusive. In this study, we discovered that genetic associations with longevity are on average stronger in females than in males through bio-demographic analyses of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) dataset of 2178 centenarians and 2299 middle-age controls of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study (CLHLS). This discovery is replicated across North and South regions of China, and is further confirmed by North-South discovery/replication analyses of different and independent datasets of Chinese healthy aging candidate genes with CLHLS participants who are not in CLHLS GWAS, including 2972 centenarians and 1992 middle-age controls. Our polygenic risk score analyses of eight exclusive groups of sex-specific genes, analyses of sex-specific and not-sex-specific individual genes, and Genome-wide Complex Trait Analysis using all SNPs all reconfirm that genetic associations with longevity are on average stronger in females than in males. Our discovery/replication analyses are based on genetic datasets of in total 5150 centenarians and compatible middle-age controls, which comprises the worldwide largest sample of centenarians. The present study's findings may partially explain the well-known male-female health-survival paradox and suggest that genetic variants may be associated with different reactions between males and females to the same vaccine, drug treatment and/or nutritional intervention. Thus, our findings provide evidence to steer away from traditional view that "one-size-fits-all" for clinical interventions, and to consider sex differences for improving healthcare efficiency. We suggest future investigations focusing on effects of interactions between sex-specific genetic variants and environment on longevity as well as biological function.

The effect of temporal data aggregation to assess the impact of changing temperatures in Europe: an epidemiological modelling study

Background

Daily time-series regression models are commonly used to estimate the lagged nonlinear relation between temperature and mortality. A major impediment to this type of analysis is the restricted access to daily health records. The use of weekly and monthly data represents a possible solution unexplored to date.

Methods

We temporally aggregated daily temperatures and mortality records from 147 contiguous regions in 16 European countries, representing their entire population of over 400 million people. We estimated temperature-lag-mortality relationships by using standard time-series quasi-Poisson regression models applied to daily data, and compared the results with those obtained with different degrees of temporal aggregation.

Findings

We observed progressively larger differences in the epidemiological estimates with the degree of temporal data aggregation. The daily data model estimated an annual cold and heat-related mortality of 290,104 (213,745-359,636) and 39,434 (30,782-47,084) deaths, respectively, and the weekly model underestimated these numbers by 8.56% and 21.56%. Importantly, differences were systematically smaller during extreme cold and heat periods, such as the summer of 2003, with an underestimation of only 4.62% in the weekly data model. We applied this framework to infer that the heat-related mortality burden during the year 2022 in Europe may have exceeded the 70,000 deaths.

Interpretation

The present work represents a first reference study validating the use of weekly time series as an approximation to the short-term effects of cold and heat on human mortality. This approach can be adopted to complement access-restricted data networks, and facilitate data access for research, translation and policy-making.

Funding

The study was supported by the ERC Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT (https://www.early-adapt.eu/), and the ERC Proof-of-Concept Grants HHS-EWS and FORECAST-AIR.

Dimensionality and invariance of ADL, IADL, BI-M2/WG-SS, and GALI in large surveys in France (2008-2014) and implications for measuring disability in epidemiology

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological investigation and surveillance of disability requires well-constructed, invariant, and, if possible, exchangeable measures. However, the current or recommended measures have not been thoroughly investigated with respect to these issues. Here we examined the dimensional structure and invariance of four measures across sociodemographic groups: Activities of Daily Living (ADL), Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL), Budapest Initiative Mark 2 (BI-M2) and Washington Group on Disability Statistics Short Set (WG-SS), and Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI).

METHODS

We used data from three large nationwide representative surveys conducted in France between 2008 and 2014. The surveys included these four measures and classical and modern approaches (correlations, principal component analysis, Rasch modeling) were used to assess their dimensional structure as well as their invariance through differential item functioning (DIF) for sociodemographic characteristics. Polytomous logistic regression models were used to assess gradients in health inequalities associated with these measures.

RESULTS

For many items of ADL, IADL, and BI-M2/WG-SS, we consistently observed disordered response thresholds, rejection of unidimensionality, and DIF evidence for sociodemographic characteristics across the survey samples. Health inequality gradients were erratic. In addition, it was impossible to identify a common continuum for GALI, ADL, IADL, and BI-M2/WG-SS or their constituent items.

CONCLUSION

This study warns against the current practice of investigating disability in epidemiology using measures that are unsuitable for epidemiological use, incommensurable, and inadequate regarding the basic requisites of dimensionality and invariance. Developing invariant measures and equating them along a common continuum to enlarge the common bases of measurement should therefore be a priority.

Individual and contextual risk factors for mortality in nursing home residents during the first wave of COVID-19 in France: a multilevel analysis of a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Mortality amongst nursing home (NH) residents increased by 43% during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We estimated the 'contextual effect' on mortality, tried to explain it by NH characteristics and identified resident- and NH-level risk factors for mortality.

METHODS

The contextual effect was measured for two cohorts of NH residents managed by the general scheme in metropolitan France (RESIDESMS data from 03/01/2020 to 05/31/2020 and 03/01/2019 to 05/31/2019) by the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) estimated from mixed-effects logistic regression.

RESULTS

Amongst 385,300 residents (5,339 NHs) included in 2020 (median age 89 years, 25% men), 9.1% died, versus 6.7% of 379,926 residents (5,270 NHs) in 2019. In the empty model, the ICC was 9.3% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2019. Only the geographic location partially explained the heterogeneity observed in 2020 (ICC: 6.5% after adjustment). Associations with mortality were stronger in 2020 than in 2019 for male sex and diabetes and weaker for heart disease, chronic respiratory disease and residence <6 months. Mortality was higher in 2020 (15.1%) than 2019 (6.3%) in NHs with at least one death with a mention of COVID-19 and more heterogeneous (ICC: 8.0%) than in the others (mortality: 6.7% in both years; ICC: 1.1%).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that the COVID-19 crisis had a heterogeneous impact on mortality in NH residents and that geographic location explain a part of the contextual effect, which appears to have had little influence on mortality in NHs not being affected by the virus.

Daylight saving time affects European mortality patterns

Daylight saving time (DST) consists in a one-hour advancement of legal time in spring offset by a backward transition of the same magnitude in fall. It creates a minimal circadian misalignment that could disrupt sleep and homoeostasis in susceptible individuals and lead to an increased incidence of pathologies and accidents during the weeks immediately following both transitions. How this shift affects mortality dynamics on a large population scale remains, however, unknown. This study examines the impact of DST on all-cause mortality in 16 European countries for the period 1998-2012. It shows that mortality decreases in spring and increases in fall during the first two weeks following each DST transition. Moreover, the alignment of time data around DST transition dates revealed a septadian mortality pattern (lowest on Sundays, highest on Mondays) that persists all-year round, irrespective of seasonal variations, in men and women aged above 40.

Comparison of Japanese Centenarians' and Noncentenarians' Medical Expenditures in the Last Year of Life

IMPORTANCE

Although research has shown that centenarians tend to experience shorter periods of serious illness compared with other age groups, few studies have focused on the medical expenditures of centenarians as a potential indicator of the scale of medical resources used in their last year of life.

OBJECTIVE

To compare Japanese centenarians' and noncentenarians' monthly medical expenditures during the year before death according to age and sex.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study used linked national health and long-term care insurance data collected from April 2013 to March 2018 in Nara Prefecture, Japan, for residents aged 75 years or older who were insured under the Medical Care System for older adults and died between April 2014 and March 2018. Data were analyzed from April 2013 to March 2018.

EXPOSURES

Age of 100 years or older (centenarians) vs 75 to 99 years (noncentenarians).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The numbers of unique inpatients and outpatients and medical expenditures related to decedents' hospitalization and outpatient care were extracted and analyzed based on sex and age group. The Jonckheere-Terpstra test was used to identify trends in unadjusted medical expenditures by age group, and generalized estimating equations were used to estimate monthly median expenditures by age group with adjustment for comorbidity burden and functional status.

RESULTS

Of 34 317 patients aged 75 to 109 years (16 202 men [47.2%] and 18 115 women [52.8%]) who died between April 2014 and March 2018, 872 (2.5%) were aged 100 to 104 years (131 men [15.0%] and 741 women [85.0%]) and 78 (0.2%) were aged 105 to 109 years (fewer than 10 were men). The analysis of unadjusted medical expenditures in the last year of life showed a significant trend of lower expenditures for the older age groups; the median adjusted total expenditures during the 30 days before death by age group were $6784 (IQR, $4884-$9703) for ages 75 to 79 years, $5894 (IQR, $4292-$8536) for 80 to 84 years, $5069 (IQR, $3676-$7150) for 85 to 89 years, $4205 (IQR, $3085-$5914) for 90 to 94 years, $3522 (IQR, $2626-$4861) for 95 to 99 years, $2898 (IQR, $2241-$3835) for 100 to 104 years, and $2626 (IQR, $1938-$3527) for 105 to 109 years. The proportion of inpatients among all patients in the year before death also decreased with increasing age: 4311 of all 4551 patients aged 75 to 79 years (94.7%); 43 of all 78 patients aged 105 to 109 years (55.1%); 2831 of 2956 men aged 75 to 79 years (95.8%); 50.0% of men aged 105 to 109 years (the number is not reported owing to the small sample size); 1480 of 1595 women aged 75 to 79 years (92.8%); and 55.7% of women aged 105 to 109 years (the number of women is not reported to prevent back-calculation of the number of men). Specifically, 274 of 872 patients aged 100 to 104 years (31.4%) and 35 of 78 patients aged 105 to 109 years (44.9%) had not been admitted to a hospital in the year before death.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study found that medical expenditures in the last year of life tended to be lower for centenarians than for noncentenarians aged 75 years or older in Japan. The proportion of inpatients also decreased with increasing age. These findings may inform future health care services coverage and policies for centenarians.

Magnitude, change over time, demographic characteristics and geographic distribution of excess deaths among nursing home residents during the first wave of COVID-19 in France: a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

The objectives were to assess the excess deaths among Nursing Home (NH) residents during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, to determine their part in the total excess deaths and whether there was a mortality displacement.

METHODS

We studied a cohort of 494,753 adults in 6,515 NHs in France exposed to COVID-19 pandemic (from 1 March to 31 May 2020) and compared with the 2014-2019 cohorts using data from the French National Health Data System. The main outcome was death. Excess deaths and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were estimated.

RESULT

There were 13,505 excess deaths. Mortality increased by 43% (SMR: 1.43). The mortality excess was higher among males than females (SMR: 1.51 and 1.38) and decreased with increasing age (SMRs in females: 1.61 in the 60-74 age group, 1.58 for 75-84, 1.41 for 85-94 and 1.31 for 95 or over; males: SMRs: 1.59 for 60-74, 1.69 for 75-84, 1.47 for 85-94 and 1.41 for 95 or over). No mortality displacement effect was observed up until 30 August 2020. By extrapolating to all NH residents nationally (N = 570,003), we estimated that they accounted for 51% of the general population excess deaths (N = 15,114 out of 29,563).

CONCLUSION

NH residents accounted for half of the total excess deaths in France during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The excess death rate was higher among males than females and among younger than older residents.

Projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe: a time series analysis of 147 contiguous regions in 16 countries

BACKGROUND

Europe has emerged as a major climate change hotspot, both in terms of an increase in seasonal averages and climate extremes. Projections of temperature-attributable mortality, however, have not been comprehensively reported for an extensive part of the continent. Therefore, we aim to estimate the future effect of climate change on temperature-attributable mortality across Europe.

METHODS

We did a time series analysis study. We derived temperature-mortality associations by collecting daily temperature and all-cause mortality records of both urban and rural areas for the observational period between 1998 and 2012 from 147 regions in 16 European countries. We estimated the location-specific temperature-mortality relationships by using standard time series quasi-Poisson regression in conjunction with a distributed lag non-linear model. These associations were used to transform the daily temperature simulations from the climate models in the historical period (1971-2005) and scenario period (2006-2099) into projections of temperature-attributable mortality. We combined the resulting risk functions with daily time series of future temperatures simulated by four climate models (ie, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MIROC5) under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (ie, Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP]2.6, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5), providing projections of future mortality attributable fraction due to moderate and extreme cold and heat temperatures.

FINDINGS

Overall, 7·17% (95% CI 5·81-8·50) of deaths registered in the observational period were attributed to non-optimal temperatures, cold being more harmful than heat by a factor of ten (6·51% [95% CI 5·14-7·80] vs 0·65% [0·40-0·89]), and with large regional differences across countries-eg, ranging from 4·85% (95% CI 3·75-6·00) in Germany to 9·87% (8·53-11·19) in Italy. The projection of temperature anomalies by RCP scenario depicts a progressive increase in temperatures, more exacerbated in the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 (4·54°C by 2070-2099) than in RCP6.0 (2·89°C) and RCP2.6 (1·67°C). This increase in temperatures was transformed into attributable fraction. Projections consistently indicated that the increase in heat attributable fraction will start to exceed the reduction of cold attributable fraction in the second half of the 21st century, especially in the Mediterranean and in the higher emission scenarios. The comparison between scenarios highlighted the important role of mitigation, given that the total attributable fraction will only remain stable in RCP2.6, whereas the total attributable fraction will rapidly start to increase in RCP6.0 by the end of the century and in RCP8.5 already by the middle of the century.

INTERPRETATION

The increase in heat attributable fraction will start to exceed the reduction of cold attributable fraction in the second half of the 21st century. This finding highlights the importance of implementing mitigation policies. These measures would be especially beneficial in the Mediterranean, where the high vulnerability to heat will lead to an imbalance between the decreasing cold and increasing heat-attributable mortality.

FUNDING

None.

Publisher Correction: A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies identifies multiple longevity genes

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22613-2

The Real Facts Supporting Jeanne Calment as the Oldest Ever Human

BACKGROUND

The 122 years and 164 days age claim of Jeanne Calment, the world oldest person who died in 1997, is the most thoroughly validated age claim. Recently the claim that families Calment and Billot organized a conspiracy concerning tax fraud based on identity fraud between mother and daughter gained international media attention.

METHODS

Here, we reference the original components of the validation as well as additional documentation to address various claims of the conspiracy theory and provide evidence for why these claims are based on inaccurate facts or unrelated to the death of Yvonne Billot-Calment, the daughter of Jeanne Calment, in 1934.

RESULTS

Also, countering the contention that the occurrence of a 122 year old person is statistically impossible, mathematical models are presented which also supports the hypothesis that though extremely rare, as would be expected for the oldest person ever, Jeanne Calment's age claim is plausible.

CONCLUSIONS

In total, the quality of the investigation supporting the claim of conspiracy as well as the mathematical analysis aiming to back it do not reach the level expected for a scientific publication.

Use of healthcare services and assistive devices among centenarians: results of the cross-sectional, international5-COOP study

OBJECTIVES

To measure the use of healthcare services and assistive devices by centenarians in five countries.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study using a survey questionnaire.

SETTING

Community-dwelling and institutionalised centenarians living in Japan, France, Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark.

PARTICIPANTS

1253 participants aged 100 or in their 100th year of life, of whom 1004 (80.1%) were female and 596 (47.6%) lived in institutions.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Recent use of medical visits, nursing care at home, home-delivered meals, acute care hospital stays overnight, professional assessments such as sight tests, mobility aids and other assistive devices. A set of national healthcare system indicators was collected to help interpret differences between countries.

RESULTS

There was considerable variability in the healthcare services and assistive devices used by centenarians depending on their country and whether they were community-dwelling or institutionalised. In contrast to the relatively homogeneous rates of hospitalisation in the past year (around 20%), community-dwelling centenarians reported widely ranging rates of medical visits in the past 3 months (at least one visit, from 32.2% in Japan to 86.6% in France). The proportion of community-dwellers using a mobility device to get around indoors (either a walking aid or a wheelchair) ranged from 48.3% in Japan to 79.2% in Sweden. Participants living in institutions and reporting the use of a mobility device ranged from 78.6% in Japan to 98.2% in Denmark.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest major differences in care received by centenarians across countries. Some may result from the characteristics of national healthcare systems, especially types of healthcare insurance coverage and the amounts of specific resources available. However, unexplored factors also seem to be at stake and may be partly related to personal health and cultural differences.

Gender Differences in Disability and Economic Hardship in Older Europeans

European women live longer, but they experience more old age-related disability than men. Disability is related to social factors, among which is poverty, through various pathways. While women's poverty has been pointed up as a challenge for Europe, our study investigates to what extent and in which countries a greater exposure to economic hardship is associated with older women's disability disadvantage. We used the 2014 EU-SILC data in 30 European countries for men and women aged 50-79 years (N = [1179-17,474]). Disability was measured by self-reported activity limitation and economic hardship by difficulties in "making both ends meet" and "facing unexpected expenses". Country-specific nested logistic regressions measured the women's disability disadvantage and its association with economic hardship. We found that activity limitations and economic hardship varied substantially across Europe, being the lowest in Sweden and Norway. We found gender gaps in activity limitations in 23 countries, always to women's disadvantage. After adjusting for age, this disadvantage was significant in 19 countries. In 11 of these countries, women's excess disability is associated with excess economic hardship in women, especially in Iceland, France, Sweden, and Austria. Women's excess disability and social factors such as economic hardship are linked, even in protective countries. These situations of double disadvantage for women deserve attention when designing policies to reduce health inequalities and to promote healthy ageing.

A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies identifies multiple longevity genes

Human longevity is heritable, but genome-wide association (GWA) studies have had limited success. Here, we perform two meta-analyses of GWA studies of a rigorous longevity phenotype definition including 11,262/3484 cases surviving at or beyond the age corresponding to the 90th/99th survival percentile, respectively, and 25,483 controls whose age at death or at last contact was at or below the age corresponding to the 60th survival percentile. Consistent with previous reports, rs429358 (apolipoprotein E (ApoE) ε4) is associated with lower odds of surviving to the 90th and 99th percentile age, while rs7412 (ApoE ε2) shows the opposite. Moreover, rs7676745, located near GPR78, associates with lower odds of surviving to the 90th percentile age. Gene-level association analysis reveals a role for tissue-specific expression of multiple genes in longevity. Finally, genetic correlation of the longevity GWA results with that of several disease-related phenotypes points to a shared genetic architecture between health and longevity.

Contribution of chronic conditions to gender disparities in health expectancies in Belgium, 2001, 2004 and 2008

Background

We aimed to investigate the contribution of chronic conditions to gender differences in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and life expectancy with disability (LED) in Belgium in 2001, 2004 and 2008.

Methods

Data on disability and chronic conditions from participants of the 2001, 2004 and 2008 Health Interview Surveys in Belgium were used to estimate disability prevalence by cause using the attribution method. Disability prevalence was applied to life tables to estimate DFLE and LED using the Sullivan method. Decomposition techniques were used to assess the contribution of mortality and disability and further of causes of death and disability to gender disparities in DFLE and LED.

Results

Higher LE, DFLE and LED were observed for women compared with men in all years studied. A decrease in the gender gap in LE (2001: 5.9; 2004: 5.6; 2008: 5.3) was observed in our cross-sectional approach followed by a decrease in gender differences in DFLE (2001: 1.9; 2004: 1.3; 2008: 0.5) and increase in LED (2001: 4.0; 2004: 4.4; 2008: 4.8). The higher LED in women was attributed to their lower mortality due to lung/larynx/trachea cancer, ischaemic heart diseases, and external causes (2001 and 2004) and higher disability prevalence due to musculoskeletal conditions (2008). Higher DFLE was observed in women owing to their lower mortality from lung/larynx/trachea cancer, ischaemic heart diseases, digestive cancer and chronic respiratory diseases.

Conclusion

To promote healthy ageing of populations, priority should be given to reduce the LED disadvantage in women by targeting non-fatal diseases, such as musculoskeletal conditions.

Contribution of chronic conditions to smoking differences in life expectancy with and without disability in Belgium

Background

Smoking is the leading cause of premature mortality and morbidity. This study aimed at assessing the impact of smoking on life expectancy (LE) and LE with (LED) and without disability (DFLE). We further estimated the contribution of disability and mortality and their causes to differences in LED and DFLE by smoking.

Methods

Data on disability, chronic conditions, and smoking from 17 148 participants of the 1997, 2001, 2004 Belgian Health Interview Surveys were used to estimate causes of disability using the attribution method. A 10-year mortality follow-up of survey participants was used. The Sullivan method was applied to estimate LED and DFLE. The contribution of disability and mortality and of causes of disability and death to smoking differences in LED and DFLE was assessed using decomposition methods.

Results

Never smokers live longer than daily smokers. DFLE advantage at age 15 of +8.5/+4.3 years (y) in men/women never compared with daily smokers was the result of lower mortality (+6.2y/+3y) and lower disability (2.3y/1.3y). The extra 0.3y/1.6y LED in never smokers was due to lower mortality (+2.6y/+2.9y) and lower disability (-2.3y/-1.3y). Lower mortality from lung/larynx/trachea cancer, chronic respiratory, and ischaemic heart diseases was the main contributor to higher LED and DFLE in never smokers. Lower disability from musculoskeletal conditions in men and chronic respiratory diseases in women increased LED and DFLE in never smokers.

Conclusions

Mortality and disability advantage among never smokers contributed to longer DFLE, while mortality advantage contributed to their longer LED.

Prevalence and Correlates of Falls Among Centenarians: Results from the Five-Country Oldest Old Project (5-COOP)

Background

Many studies have been conducted to investigate risk factors of falls in older people, but little is known about falls among centenarians. We analyzed the cross-sectional data from the Five-Country Oldest Old Project (5-COOP) to investigate the prevalence and correlates of falls among centenarians.

Methods

Data collection was carried out in 2011–2014 in Japan, France, Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark. The sample consisted of 1,165 centenarians who were at least 100 years old in 2011. The outcome variable was falls in the past 6 months. Demographics, chronic conditions, pain, visual impairment, global cognitive function, dizziness and syncope, number of medications, functional limitation (ie, dressing, bathing, toileting, transferring, incontinence, and feeding), mobility difficulty, poor strength, and assistive device usage were included in the analysis.

Results

The prevalence of falls within the last 6 months was 33.7%, ranging from 21.6% (Japan) to 40.9% (France). Being male, experiencing dizziness, syncope, incontinence, and using assistive devices indoors were associated with an increased risk of falls among centenarians. Significant cross-country differences in the relationships between some risk factors (ie, gender, difficulty with bathing, toileting, transferring, and feeding, and using assistive devices for walking indoors and outdoors) and falls were observed. Subsample analysis using data from each country also showed that factors related to falls were different.

Conclusions

The prevalence of falls among centenarians is high and fall-related factors may be different than those for their younger counterparts. Given that centenarians is an emerging population, more studies investigating risk factors are needed to better understand falls among centenarians.

Effect of the Great Recession on regional mortality trends in Europe

Previous studies have consistently shown the recurrent relationship between macroeconomic cycles and changes in mortality trends, so that recessions are generally associated with periods of faster life expectancy rise, and periods of economic growth with slower reductions or even increases in mortality trends. Here we analyze the link between annual per capita estimates of gross domestic product and daily atmospheric temperatures and standardized death rates for a large ensemble of European regions to describe the effect of the Great Recession on annual and seasonal changes in all-cause human mortality trends. Results show that the countries and regions with the largest (smallest) economic slowdown were also those with the largest (smallest) strengthening of the declining mortality trend. This procyclical evolution of mortality rates is found to be stronger during the cold part of the year, showing that it also depends on the seasonal timing of the underlying causes of death.

Sex Differences in Genetic Associations With Longevity

IMPORTANCE

Sex differences in genetic associations with human longevity remain largely unknown; investigations on this topic are important for individualized health care.

OBJECTIVE

To explore sex differences in genetic associations with longevity.

DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

This population-based case-control study used sex-specific genome-wide association study and polygenic risk score (PRS) analyses to examine sex differences in genetic associations with longevity. Five hundred sixty-four male and 1614 female participants older than 100 years were compared with a control group of 773 male and 1526 female individuals aged 40 to 64 years. All were Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study participants with Han ethnicity who were recruited in 1998 and 2008 to 2014.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Sex-specific loci and pathways associated with longevity and PRS measures of joint effects of sex-specific loci.

RESULTS

Eleven male-specific and 11 female-specific longevity loci (P < 10-5) and 35 male-specific and 25 female-specific longevity loci (10-5 ≤ P < 10-4) were identified. Each of these loci's associations with longevity were replicated in north and south regions of China in one sex but were not significant in the other sex (P = .13-.97), and loci-sex interaction effects were significant (P < .05). The associations of loci rs60210535 of the LINC00871 gene with longevity were replicated in Chinese women (P = 9.0 × 10-5) and US women (P = 4.6 × 10-5) but not significant in Chinese and US men. The associations of the loci rs2622624 of the ABCG2 gene were replicated in Chinese women (P = 6.8 × 10-5) and European women (P = .003) but not significant in both Chinese and European men. Eleven male-specific pathways (inflammation and immunity genes) and 34 female-specific pathways (tryptophan metabolism and PGC-1α induced) were significantly associated with longevity (P < .005; false discovery rate < 0.05). The PRS analyses demonstrated that sex-specific associations with longevity of the 4 exclusive groups of 11 male-specific and 11 female-specific loci (P < 10-5) and 35 male-specific and 25 female-specific loci (10-5 ≤P < 10-4) were jointly replicated across north and south discovery and target samples. Analyses using the combined data set of north and south showed that these 4 groups of sex-specific loci were jointly and significantly associated with longevity in one sex (P = 2.9 × 10-70 to 1.3 × 10-39) but not jointly significant in the other sex (P = .11 to .70), while interaction effects between PRS and sex were significant (P = 4.8 × 10-50 to 1.2 × 10-16).

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

The sex differences in genetic associations with longevity are remarkable, but have been overlooked by previously published genome-wide association studies on longevity. This study contributes to filling this research gap and provides a scientific basis for further investigating effects of sex-specific genetic variants and their interactions with environment on healthy aging, which may substantially contribute to more effective and targeted individualized health care for male and female elderly individuals.

Frailty and Associated Factors among Centenarians in the 5-COOP Countries

BACKGROUND

The global number of centenarians is still strongly growing and information about the health and healthcare needs of this segment of the population is needed. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of frailty among centenarians included in a multinational study and to investigate associated factors.

METHODS

The 5-COOP study is a cross-sectional survey including 1,253 centenarians in 5 countries (Japan, France, Switzerland, Denmark, and Sweden). Data were collected using a standardized questionnaire during a face-to-face interview (73.3%), telephone interview (14.5%), or by postal questionnaire (12.2%). The 5 dimensions of the frailty phenotype (weight loss, fatigue, weakness, slow walking speed, and low level of physical activity) were assessed by using self-reported data. Factors associated with frailty criteria were investigated by using multivariate regression models.

RESULTS

Almost 95% of the participants had at least 1 frailty criterion. The overall prevalence of frailty (3 criteria or more) was 64.7% (from 51.5% in Sweden to 77.6% in Switzerland), and 32.2% of the participants had 4 or 5 criteria. The most frequent criteria were weakness (84.2%), slow walking speed (77.6%), and low level of physical activity (72.5%), followed by fatigue (43.8%) and weight loss (23.8%). Factors associated with frailty included data collection modes, country of residence, gender, living in institution, depression, dementia, disability, falls, and sensory impairments.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that reaching 100 years of age rarely goes without frailty and sheds light on factors associated with frailty at a very old age.

The use of the global activity limitation Indicator and healthy life years by member states and the European Commission

Background

In 2005, the European Union (EU) started to use a disability-free life expectancy, known as Healthy Life Years (HLY), to monitor progress in the strategic European policies such as the 2000 Lisbon strategy. HLY are based on the underlying measure: the Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI). Twelve years after its implementation, this study aims to assess its current use in EU Member States and the European Commission.

Methods

In March 2017, a questionnaire was sent to 28 Member states and the European Commission. The questionnaire inquired how the GALI and HLY are used to set policy targets, in which surveys the GALI has been introduced since 2005, how the GALI and HLY are presented, and what the capacity in each country is to investigate the GALI and HLY.

Results

The survey was answered by 22 Member States and by the Commission. HLY are often used to set targets and develop strategies in health such as national health plans. Analysis of HLY has even led to policy change. In some countries, HLY have become the main indicator for health, gaining more importance than life expectancy. More recently, the GALI and HLY have also been used for policy targets outside the health sector such as in the area of pension and retirement age or in the context of sustainable development. Regarding surveys, the GALI is mostly obtained from the EU-SILC, SHARE and EHIS, but is also increasingly introduced in national surveys. National health reporting systems usually present HLY on their national statistics websites. Most countries have up to three specialists working on the GALI and HLY, which has been consistent through time. Others have increased their capacity over various institutions.

Conclusion

HLY is an indicator that is systematically used to monitor health developments in most EU countries. The SHARE, EU-SILC and EHIS are commonly used to assess HLY through the GALI. The results are then described in reports and presented on national statistics websites and used in different policy settings. Expertise to analyse the GALI and HLY is available in most countries.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13690-018-0279-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Economic Hardship and Educational Differentials in Disability in 26 European Countries

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this article is to study to what extent European variations in differentials in disability by education level are associated to variation in poverty.

METHOD

Using the European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) for 26 countries, we measure the prevalence of activity limitation (AL) and the rate of economic hardship (EH) by level of education. We measure the increased AL prevalence (disadvantage) of the low-educated relative to the middle-educated and the reduced AL prevalence (advantage) of the high-educated groups, controlling or not for EH.

RESULTS

The rate of EH and the extent of the AL-advantage/disadvantage vary substantially across Europe. EH contributes to the AL-advantage/disadvantage but to different extent depending on its level across educational groups.

DISCUSSION

Associations between poverty, education, and disability are complex. In general, large EH goes along with increased disability differentials. Actions to reduce poverty are needed in Europe to reduce the levels and differentials in disability.

Impact of Question Wording on the Measurement of Activity Limitation: Evidence From a Randomized Test in France

OBJECTIVE

The Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI), a single question measuring disability, had been introduced in various European surveys since 2004. The complexity of its wording has been questioned. Our study compares alternative variants aiming to simplify the wording.

METHOD

We used the Health-Related Opinion Survey run in 2014 in France (N = 3,009). Its split sample design allows testing four variants of the questions. We analyzed the prevalence of activity limitation (AL) resulting from the four different constructs of the GALI using multinomial logistic regressions, adjusted for background variables and functional limitations (FLs).

RESULTS

The alternative GALI variants result in significantly different prevalences compared with the original question, in particular for people with FL. The current variant is more inclusive than the routed variants.

DISCUSSION

Our study suggests limited benefits of changing the GALI construct which do not outweigh the costs of breaking the established chronological series of the current variant.

MACVIA-LR (Fighting Chronic Diseases for Active and Healthy Ageing in Languedoc-Roussillon): A Success Story of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing

The Région Languedoc Roussillon is the umbrella organisation for an interconnected and integrated project on active and healthy ageing (AHA). It covers the 3 pillars of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (EIP on AHA): (A) Prevention and health promotion, (B) Care and cure, (C) and (D) Active and independent living of elderly people. All sub-activities (poly-pharmacy, falls prevention initiative, prevention of frailty, chronic respiratory diseases, chronic diseases with multimorbidities, chronic infectious diseases, active and independent living and disability) have been included in MACVIA-LR which has a strong political commitment and involves all stakeholders (public, private, patients, policy makers) including CARSAT-LR and the Eurobiomed cluster. It is a Reference Site of the EIP on AHA. The framework of MACVIA-LR has the vision that the prevention and management of chronic diseases is essential for the promotion of AHA and for the reduction of handicap. The main objectives of MACVIA-LR are: (i) to develop innovative solutions for a network of Living labs in order to reduce avoidable hospitalisations and loss of autonomy while improving quality of life, (ii) to disseminate the innovation. The three years of MACVIA-LR activities are reported in this paper.

Building Bridges for Innovation in Ageing: Synergies between Action Groups of the EIP on AHA

The Strategic Implementation Plan of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (EIP on AHA) proposed six Action Groups. After almost three years of activity, many achievements have been obtained through commitments or collaborative work of the Action Groups. However, they have often worked in silos and, consequently, synergies between Action Groups have been proposed to strengthen the triple win of the EIP on AHA. The paper presents the methodology and current status of the Task Force on EIP on AHA synergies. Synergies are in line with the Action Groups' new Renovated Action Plan (2016-2018) to ensure that their future objectives are coherent and fully connected. The outcomes and impact of synergies are using the Monitoring and Assessment Framework for the EIP on AHA (MAFEIP). Eight proposals for synergies have been approved by the Task Force: Five cross-cutting synergies which can be used for all current and future synergies as they consider overarching domains (appropriate polypharmacy, citizen empowerment, teaching and coaching on AHA, deployment of synergies to EU regions, Responsible Research and Innovation), and three cross-cutting synergies focussing on current Action Group activities (falls, frailty, integrated care and chronic respiratory diseases).

Examination of the Causes and Mechanisms of the Increase in Disability-Free Life Expectancy

From 1981 to 1991, life expectancy at birth in France increased by 2.5 years. Health survey data show that during this 10-year period, disability-free life expectancy increased significantly by 3.0 years in males and 2.6 years in females. Consequently, the proportion of years lived without disability within life expectancy has increased. For example, in males it increased from 86.4% to 87.5% in this time period. These observations show that, contrary to the frequent predictions of "pandemia" of disabilities or expansion of morbidity, the major increase in life expectancy in France over the past 10 years has been accompanied by a compression of morbidity. In the present study, the authors explore the causes and mechanisms of this positive development.

Health, frailty and disability after ninety: Results of an observational study in France

BACKGROUND

In spite of their increasing demographic weight, health characteristics of the oldest old remain poorly described in epidemiological studies.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the health of people aged 70 years and over included in the SIPAF study, and to compare the prevalence of health indicators including successful aging, frailty, and disability between three age groups including the oldest old.

METHODS

The study population is composed of 2350 retired people recruited between 2008 and 2010, of whom 512 are aged 90 and over (21.8%). A comprehensive geriatric assessment was performed at home by trained nurses. The prevalence of health and functional indicators, as well as the distribution of people among successful ageing, frailty, and disability, were described by age group (70-79, 80-89, 90+) and sex.

RESULTS

Compared to their younger counterparts, people aged 90 years and over were more likely to experience functional limitations, sensory impairment, cognitive impairment, poor mood, and frailty. One third of the nonagenarians needed help in at least one basic activity of daily living and 25% met the frailty criteria. In contrast, the prevalence of most chronic diseases did not increase after ninety. Successful ageing concerned 9% of the oldest old. Women were less likely to experience successful ageing and more likely to be frail or dependent.

CONCLUSION

This study shows the diversity of health states in very old age and points out that one quarter of the people aged 90 and over said frail are likely to take advantage of preventive actions of disability.

Harmonising summary measures of population health using global survey instruments

Summary measures of population health—health expectancies in particular—have become a standard for quantifying and monitoring population health. To date, cross-national comparability of health expectancies is limited, except within the European Union (EU). To advance international comparability, the European Joint Action on Healthy Life Years (JA: EHLEIS) set up an international working group. The working group discussed the conceptual basis of summary measures of population health and made suggestions for the development of comparable health expectancies to be used across the EU and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) members. In this paper, which summarises the main results, we argue that harmonised health data needed for health expectancy calculation can best be obtained from ‘global’ survey measures, which provide a snapshot of the health situation using 1 or a few survey questions. We claim that 2 global measures of health should be pursued for their high policy relevance: a global measure of participation restriction and a global measure of functional limitation. We finally provide a blueprint for the future development and implementation of the 2 global measures. The blueprint sets the basis for subsequent international collaboration, having as a core group Member States of the EU, the USA and Japan. Other countries, in particular OECD members, are invited to join the initiative.

Contribution of Chronic Conditions to the Disability Burden across Smoking Categories in Middle-Aged Adults, Belgium

INTRODUCTION

Smoking is considered the single most important preventable cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, contributing to increased incidence and severity of disabling conditions. The aim of this study was to assess the contribution of chronic conditions to the disability burden across smoking categories in middle-aged adults in Belgium.

METHODS

Data from 10,224 individuals aged 40 to 60 years who participated in the 1997, 2001, 2004, or 2008 Health Interview Surveys in Belgium were used. Smoking status was defined as never, former (cessation ≥2 years), former (cessation <2 years), occasional light (<20 cigarettes/day), daily light, and daily heavy (≥20 cigarettes/day). To attribute disability to chronic conditions, binomial additive hazards models were fitted separately for each smoking category adjusted for gender, except for former (cessation <2 years) and occasional light smokers due to the small sample size.

RESULTS

An increasing trend in the disability prevalence was observed across smoking categories in men (never = 4.8%, former (cessation ≥2 years) = 5.8%, daily light = 7.8%, daily heavy = 10.7%) and women (never = 7.6%, former (cessation ≥2 years) = 8.0%, daily light = 10.2%, daily heavy = 12.0%). Musculoskeletal conditions showed a substantial contribution to the disability burden in men and women across all smoking categories. Other important contributors were depression and cardiovascular diseases in never smokers; depression, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes in former smokers (cessation ≥2 years); chronic respiratory diseases, cancer, and cardiovascular diseases in daily light smokers; cardiovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases in men and depression and diabetes in women daily heavy smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Beyond the well-known effect of smoking on mortality, our findings showed an increasing trend of the disability prevalence and different contributors to the disability burden across smoking categories. This information can be useful from a public health perspective to define strategies to reduce disability in Belgium.

ICC-dementia (International Centenarian Consortium - dementia): an international consortium to determine the prevalence and incidence of dementia in centenarians across diverse ethnoracial and sociocultural groups

Background

Considerable variability exists in international prevalence and incidence estimates of dementia. The accuracy of estimates of dementia in the oldest-old and the controversial question of whether dementia incidence and prevalence decline at very old age will be crucial for better understanding the dynamics between survival to extreme old age and the occurrence and risk for various types of dementia and comorbidities. International Centenarian Consortium – Dementia (ICC-Dementia) seeks to harmonise centenarian and near-centenarian studies internationally to describe the cognitive and functional profiles of exceptionally old individuals, and ascertain the trajectories of decline and thereby the age-standardised prevalence and incidence of dementia in this population. The primary goal of the ICC-Dementia is to establish a large and thorough heterogeneous sample that has the power to answer epidemiological questions that small, separate studies cannot. A secondary aim is to examine cohort-specific effects and differential survivorship into very old age. We hope to lay the foundation for further investigation into risk and protective factors for dementia and healthy exceptional brain ageing in centenarians across diverse ethnoracial and sociocultural groups.

Methods

Studies focusing on individuals aged ≥95 years (approximately the oldest 1 percentile for men, oldest 5th percentile for women), with a minimum sample of 80 individuals, including assessment of cognition and functional status, are invited to participate. There are currently seventeen member or potential member studies from Asia, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. Initial attempts at harmonising key variables are in progress.

Discussion

General challenges facing large, international consortia like ICC-Dementia include timely and effective communication among member studies, ethical and practical issues relating to human subject studies and data sharing, and the challenges related to data harmonisation. A specific challenge for ICC-Dementia relates to the concept and definition of’abnormal’ in this exceptional group of individuals who are rarely free of physical, sensory and/or cognitive impairments.

Human longevity is influenced by many genetic variants: evidence from 75,000 UK Biobank participants

Variation in human lifespan is 20 to 30% heritable in twins but few genetic variants have been identified. We undertook a Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) using age at death of parents of middle-aged UK Biobank participants of European decent (n=75,244 with father's and/or mother's data, excluding early deaths). Genetic risk scores for 19 phenotypes (n=777 proven variants) were also tested. In GWAS, a nicotine receptor locus(CHRNA3, previously associated with increased smoking and lung cancer) was associated with fathers' survival. Less common variants requiring further confirmation were also identified. Offspring of longer lived parents had more protective alleles for coronary artery disease, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, cholesterol and triglyceride levels, type-1 diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease and Alzheimer's disease. In candidate analyses, variants in the TOMM40/APOE locus were associated with longevity, but FOXO variants were not. Associations between extreme longevity (mother >=98 years, fathers >=95 years, n=1,339) and disease alleles were similar, with an additional association with HDL cholesterol (p=5.7x10-3). These results support a multiple protective factors model influencing lifespan and longevity (top 1% survival) in humans, with prominent roles for cardiovascular-related pathways. Several of these genetically influenced risks, including blood pressure and tobacco exposure, are potentially modifiable.

Impact of Chronic Conditions and Multimorbidity on the Disability Burden in the Older Population in Belgium

BACKGROUND

The increase in longevity along with a high prevalence of chronic conditions contribute to increased disability burden. Despite the high occurrence of multimorbidity observed in advanced ages, most studies are restricted to the investigation of individual diseases. In this study, we assessed the impact of chronic conditions and multimorbidity on the disability burden in the older population in Belgium.

METHODS

Data from 9,482 participants in the 2001, 2004, or 2008 Belgian Health Interview Surveys aged 55 years or older were analyzed. Disability was defined based on the Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI). To attribute disability to single chronic conditions and disease pairs, a multiple additive hazard model was fitted.

RESULTS

Musculoskeletal conditions (45.3%), chronic respiratory diseases (11.2%), and cardiovascular diseases (10.2%) diseases were the most frequent conditions. Cardiovascular diseases, the co-occurrence of chronic respiratory diseases and depression, neurological diseases, cancer, and the combination of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases were the top five disabling conditions. The disability prevalence in the older population in Belgium was 35.6% (confidence interval =35.0; 36.2%). The most important contributors to the disability burden were musculoskeletal, cardiovascular, and chronic respiratory diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

The present findings provide a deeper understanding of the role of chronic conditions and multimorbidity on the disability burden in the older population in Belgium. Although the disease pairs showed a low contribution to the disability burden, their occurrence presented a high impact on disability. Prevention strategies to tackle disability should target the main contributors to the disability burden and the most disabling conditions/disease pairs, especially in the clinical practice.

Decreased Proportion of Dementia-Free Life Expectancy in Hong Kong SAR

BACKGROUND

Estimations of life expectancies (LE) in health and ill health are important for planning future health care support. This study aimed at quantifying whether an increased LE is accompanied by an increase in the duration of life with dementia (DemLE) in Hong Kong SAR.

METHODS

Two parameters from a logistic model were used to fit the overall trend of the weighted prevalence of dementia. Abridged age- and sex-specific life tables and Sullivan's method were used to calculate dementia-free LE (DemFLE) for 1998 and 2013.

RESULTS

In 2013, among elderly individuals in Hong Kong aged 65 years, men had lived with dementia for 1.8 years and women for 3.6 years. These values are similar to those for subjects aged ≥85 years, while the proportion of DemLE was much greater at advanced ages. Elderly female individuals tend to experience a greater number of years with dementia than males.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate although LE has increased for all older age groups over time, the increase in DemFLE has not been greater than the gain in LE, suggesting an absolute expansion of the burden of dementia to the community between 1998 and 2013. The results suggest that more caregiving resources and manpower will be needed in the future as the population ages.

Educational differentials in disability vary across and within welfare regimes: a comparison of 26 European countries in 2009

BACKGROUND

Social differentials in disability prevalence exist in all European countries, but their scale varies markedly. To improve understanding of this variation, the article focuses on each end of the social gradient. It compares the extent of the higher disability prevalence in low social groups (referred to as disability disadvantage) and of the lower prevalence in high social groups (disability advantage); country-specific advantages/disadvantages are discussed regarding the possible influence of welfare regimes.

METHODS

Cross-sectional disability prevalence is measured by longstanding health-related activity limitation (AL) in the 2009 European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) across 26 countries classified into four welfare regime groups. Logistic models adjusted by country, age and sex (in all 30-79 years and in three age-bands) measured the country-specific ORs across education, representing the AL-disadvantage of low-educated and AL-advantage of high-educated groups relative to middle-educated groups.

RESULTS

The relative AL-disadvantage of the low-educated groups was small in Sweden (eg, 1.2 (1.0-1.4)), Finland, Romania, Bulgaria and Spain (youngest age-band), but was large in the Czech Republic (eg, 1.9 (1.7-2.2)), Denmark, Belgium, Italy and Hungary. The high-educated groups had a small relative AL-advantage in Denmark (eg, 0.9 (0.8-1.1)), but a large AL-advantage in Lithuania (eg, 0.5 (0.4-0.6)), half of the Baltic and Eastern European countries, Norway and Germany (youngest age-band). There were notable differences within welfare regime groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The country-specific disability advantages/disadvantages across educational groups identified here could help to identify determining factors and the efficiency of national policies implemented to tackle social differentials in health.

Operational Definition of Active and Healthy Ageing (AHA): A Conceptual Framework

Health is a multi-dimensional concept, capturing how people feel and function. The broad concept of Active and Healthy Ageing was proposed by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as the process of optimizing opportunities for health to enhance quality of life as people age. It applies to both individuals and population groups. A universal Active and Healthy Ageing definition is not available and it may differ depending on the purpose of the definition and/or the questions raised. While the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (EIP on AHA) has had a major impact, a definition of Active and Healthy Ageing is urgently needed. A meeting was organised in Montpellier, France, October 20-21, 2014 as the annual conference of the EIP on AHA Reference Site MACVIA-LR (Contre les Maladies Chroniques pour un Vieillissement Actif en Languedoc Roussillon) to propose an operational definition of Active and Healthy Ageing including tools that may be used for this. The current paper describes the rationale and the process by which the aims of the meeting will be reached.

Health and function assessments in two adjacent Danish birth cohorts of centenarians: Impact of design and methodology

Using the results from measures of functional ability, cognitive and physical performance from two adjacent birth cohorts of 100-year-old adults, we aimed to elucidate the possible impact of difference in participation rates, design, and interviewer mode. Participants were birth cohort members born in 1910 (DK-1910) and 1911-12 (DK-1911). Both surveys used the same assessment instruments, but the design was different, and data collection was carried out by trained survey agency interviewers in DK-1910 and trained nurses in DK-1911. Participation rate in DK-1911 (49.8 % (251/504)) was lower than in DK-1910 (66.9 % (273/408)) (p < 0.001). The proportion of interviews with the participant answering alone or mainly alone was significantly higher in DK-1911 (77 %) than in DK-1910 (56 %), and the proportion living in nursing home was significantly lower (44 vs. 54 %, respectively). Higher proportions of DK-1911 independently performed all activities of daily living (ADL) compared to DK-1910, but only significantly for toileting, bathing, and feeding (all p < 0.01). Mini-mental state examination (MMSE) score was higher in DK-1911 than in DK-1910 (23.5 vs. 21.0; p < 0.001). Handgrip strength, gait speed, and chair stand were almost similar. DK-1911 participants had significantly better one-year survival than DK-1911 non-participants and DK-1910 participants and non-participants (p = 0.001). These results suggest that lower participation rate entails selection towards healthier participants in terms of ADL and cognitive functioning. Caution is warranted when comparing studies of centenarians with different participation rates, design, and interviewer mode, and further studies of these methodological issues are required.

Comparison of socio-economic indicators explaining inequalities in Healthy Life Years at age 50 in Europe: 2005 and 2010

BACKGROUND

The first estimates of Healthy Life Years at age 50 (HLY50) across the EU25 countries in 2005 showed substantial variation in healthy ageing. We investigate whether factors contributing to HLY50 inequalities have changed between 2005 and 2010.

METHODS

HLY50 for each country and year were calculated using Sullivan's method, applying the age-specific prevalence of activity limitation from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) survey to life tables. Inequalities in life expectancy at age 50 (LE50) and HLY50 between countries were defined as the difference between the maximum and minimum LE50 or HLY50. Relationships between HLY50 and macro-level socio-economic indicators were investigated using meta-regression. Men and women were analysed separately.

RESULTS

Between 2005 and 2010 HLY50 inequalities for both men and women in Europe increased. In 2005 and 2010 HLY50 inequalities exceeded LE50 inequalities, particularly in the established EU15 countries in 2010 where HLY50 inequalities (men: 10.7 years; women: 12.5 years) were four times greater for men and three times for women than LE50 inequalities (men: 2.4 years; women: 4.1 years). Only material deprivation significantly explained variation in EU25 HLY50 in both years with, additionally, long-term unemployment in 2010.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that inequalities in HLY50 across Europe are large, increasing and partly explained by levels of material deprivation. Moreover long-term unemployment has become more influential in explaining variation in HLY50 between 2005 and 2010.

Polypharmacy and frailty: prevalence, relationship, and impact on mortality in a French sample of 2350 old people

PURPOSE

To assess the prevalence of polypharmacy and frailty, to examine their association, and to establish their independent and combined effects on mortality in a sample of French old people.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional population study of people aged 70 years and over. A total of 2350 respondents were interviewed at home in 2008-2010. Frailty was defined as impairment in three domains or more among nutrition, energy, physical activity, strength, and mobility, in the absence of difficulties in basic activities of daily living. Mortality data were documented after a mean follow-up period of 2.6 years.

RESULTS

Mean age of the population was 83.3 +/- 7.5 years, with 59.4% of women. Prevalence of frailty was 17.0%. Polypharmacy (5-9 drugs) was reported in 53.6% of the population, and excessive polypharmacy (10 drugs or more) in 13.8%. After adjustment for socio-demographic and health variables, polypharmacy and excessive polypharmacy were associated with frailty with odds ratio 1.77 [1.20-2.61] and 4.47 [2.37-8.42], respectively. Frailty (hazard ratio [HR] 2.56 [1.63-4.04]) and excessive polypharmacy (HR 1.83 [1.28-2.62]) were independent predictors of mortality. Compared with non-frail people without polypharmacy, frail people with excessive polypharmacy were six times more likely to die during the follow-up period (HR 6.30 [3.09-12.84]).

CONCLUSION

By showing the independent and combined effects of polypharmacy and frailty on mortality risk, this study should reinforce the awareness of clinicians with regard to these factors, rather prevalent in old people.

Contribution of chronic diseases to the disability burden in a population 15 years and older, Belgium, 1997-2008

Background

Age-associated disability reduces quality of life in older populations and leads to wide-range implications for social and health policy. The identification of diseases that contribute to the disability burden is crucial to the development of prevention and intervention strategies to reduce disability. In this study, we assessed the contribution of chronic diseases to the prevalence of disability in Belgium.

Methods

Data from 35,837 individuals aged 15 years or older who participated in the 1997, 2001, 2004, or 2008 Belgian Health Interview Surveys were used. Disability was defined as difficulties in doing at least one of six activities of daily living (transfer in and out of bed, transfer in and out of chair, dressing, washing hands and face, feeding, and going to the toilet) and/or mobility limitations (ability to walk without stopping less than 200 m). Multiple additive regression models were fitted separately for men and women to estimate the age-specific background disability rate (experienced by everyone, independent of the presence of specific diseases) and disease-specific disability rates (disability rate in subjects who reported selected chronic diseases).

Results

Musculoskeletal, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases were the main contributors to the disability burden in Belgium. Musculoskeletal diseases were the most prevalent diseases in men and women in all age groups. Neurological diseases and stroke were the most disabling diseases, i.e. caused the highest level of disability among the diseased individuals, in all age groups for men and women, respectively. Back pain was the main cause of disability in men aged 15 to 64 years, while heart attack was the major contributor to the disability prevalence in men aged 65 or older. Likewise, arthritis was the main cause of disability among women across all age groups. Depression was also an important contributor in young subjects (15–54 years). Cancer was not an important contributor to the disability prevalence in Belgium.

Conclusions

To reduce the burden of disability in Belgium, interventions should target musculoskeletal, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases especially among elderly. Furthermore, attention should also be given to depression in young individuals.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-1574-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Developmental determinants in non-communicable chronic diseases and ageing

Prenatal and peri-natal events play a fundamental role in health, development of diseases and ageing (Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD)). Research on the determinants of active and healthy ageing is a priority to: (i) inform strategies for reducing societal and individual costs of an ageing population and (ii) develop effective novel prevention strategies. It is important to compare the trajectories of respiratory diseases with those of other chronic diseases.

Evaluating the performance of a climate-driven mortality model during heat waves and cold spells in Europe

The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could potentially be made several months ahead of imminent heat waves and cold spells.

Comparison of two methods to report potentially avoidable hospitalizations in France in 2012: a cross-sectional study

Background

Potentially avoidable hospitalizations represent an indirect measure of access to effective primary care. However many approaches have been proposed to measure them and results may differ considerably. This work aimed at examining the agreement between the Weissman and Ansari approaches in order to measure potentially avoidable hospitalizations in France.

Methods

Based on the 2012 French national hospital discharge database (Programme de Médicalisation des Systèmes d’Information), potentially avoidable hospitalizations were measured using two approaches proposed by Weissman et al. and by Ansari et al. Age- and sex-standardised rates were calculated in each department. The two approaches were compared for diagnosis groups, type of stay, severity, age, sex, and length of stay.

Results

The number and age-standardised rate of potentially avoidable hospitalizations estimated by the Weissman et al. and Ansari et al. approaches were 742,474 (13.3 cases per 1,000 inhabitants) and 510,206 (9.0 cases per 1,000 inhabitants), respectively. There are significant differences by conditions groups, age, length of stay, severity level, and proportion of medical stays between the Weissman and Ansari methods.

Conclusions

Regarding potentially avoidable hospitalizations in France in 2012, the agreement between the Weissman and Ansari approaches is poor. The method used to measure potentially avoidable hospitalizations is critical, and might influence the assessment of accessibility and performance of primary care.

Assessing the validity of the Global Activity Limitation Indicator in fourteen European countries

Background

The Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI), the measure underlying the European indicator Healthy Life Years (HLY), is widely used to compare population health across countries. However, the comparability of the item has been questioned. This study aims to further validate the GALI in the adult European population.

Methods

Data from the European Health Interview Survey (EHIS), covering 14 European countries and 152,787 individuals, were used to explore how the GALI was associated with other measures of disability and whether the GALI was consistent or reflected different disability situations in different countries.

Results

When considering each country separately or all combined, we found that the GALI was significantly associated with measures of activities of daily living, instrumental activity of daily living, and functional limitations (P < 0.001 in all cases). Associations were largest for activity of daily living and lowest though still high for functional limitations. For each measure, the magnitude of the association was similar across most countries. Overall, however, the GALI differed significantly between countries in terms of how it reflected each of the three disability measures (P < 0.001 in all cases). We suspect cross-country differences in the results may be due to variations in: the implementation of the EHIS, the perception of functioning and limitations, and the understanding of the GALI question.

Conclusion

The study both confirms the relevance of this indicator to measure general activity limitations in the European population and the need for caution when comparing the level of the GALI from one country to another.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2288-15-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.