Cost-effectiveness of scaling up mass drug administration for the control of soil-transmitted helminths: a comparison of cost function and constant costs analyses

Cost and budget impact of mass drug administration compared to expanded school-based targeted preventive chemotherapy for soil-transmitted helminth control in Zamboanga Peninsula, the Philippines

Background

School-based targeted preventive chemotherapy (PC), the primary strategy for soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control, typically focusing on primary schoolchildren, was expanded to secondary school students in the Philippines in 2016. This program still excludes adults, who may also suffer from considerable morbidity and can be a significant reservoir of infection. Mass drug administration (MDA), where the entire population is treated, would bring additional health benefits but will also increase implementation costs. The incremental cost of implementing MDA for STH control compared to expanded school-based targeted PC, however, is unknown.

Methods

A cost survey was conducted in Zamboanga Peninsula region in 2021 to estimate the economic and financial cost of implementing MDA compared to the expanded school-based targeted PC from a government payer perspective. A budget impact analysis was conducted to estimate the financial cost to the government of implementing MDA over a five-year timeframe. Monte Carlo simulation accounted for uncertainty in cost estimates. Costs were reported in 2021 United States Dollars ($).

Findings

The economic cost of MDA was $809,000 per year (95% CI: $679,000-$950,000) or $0.22 per person targeted (95% CI: $0.19-$0.26), while the expanded school-based targeted PC would cost $625,000 (95% CI: $549,000-$706,000) or $0.57 per person targeted (95% CI: $0.50-$0.64). Over five years, the financial cost to the government for MDA would be $3,113,000 (95% CI: $2,475,000-$3,810,000); $740,000 (95% CI: $486,000-$1,019,000) higher than expanded school-based targeted PC.

Interpretation

Implementing MDA in the region will increase the economic and financial costs by 29% and 31%, respectively, when compared to expanded school-based targeted PC. Implementing MDA would require the Department of Health to increase their total expenditure for STH control by 0.2% and could be key in addressing the ongoing STH burden.

Funding

The project was funded by the Australian Centre for the Control and Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (NHMRC GA19028), and JPCDT was supported by a UNSW Scientia PhD Scholarship. SVN is funded by an NHMRC Investigator Grant (APP 2018220).

Cost-effectiveness of sentinel screening of endemic diseases alongside malaria diagnosis: A case study in schistosomiasis

BACKGROUND

In countries where malaria is endemic, the use of rapid diagnostic tests(RDTs) has become routine, especially in rural settings. Such regions are characterised by often having other co-endemic infectious diseases, at high levels of prevalence.

AIM

To illustrate the potential added-value of "sentinel" screening for patients presenting for a routine diagnostic test for malaria, at healthcare facilities in Uganda.

METHODS

We developed an economic model by combining two decision trees, one for malaria and a second for the co-endemic disease schistosomiasis. The integrated model was designed to inform policy strategies for the co-endemic disease in addition to malaria (i.e., whether to test opportunistically for schistosomiasis or use mass drug administration(MDA) as per usual practice).We performed the analysis on three comparators varying testing accuracy and costs.

RESULTS

Sentinel screening can provide added value to the testing of patients compared with the status quo: when schistosomiasis prevalence is high then MDA is preferential; if low prevalence, treating no one is preferred. If the disease has average levels of prevalence, then a strategy involving testing is preferred. Prevalence thresholds driving the dominant strategy are dependent upon the model parameters, which are highly context specific. At average levels of prevalence for schistosomiasis and malaria for Uganda, adding a sentinel screening was cost-effective when the accuracy of test was higher than current diagnostics and when economies of scope were generated(Expected value clinical Information = 0.65$ per DALY averted, 137.91$ per correct diagnoses).Protocols using diagnostics with current accuracy levels were preferred only for levels of MDA coverage below 75%.

CONCLUSION

The importance of the epidemiological setting is crucial in determining the best cost-effective strategy for detecting endemic disease. Economies of scope can make sentinel screenings cost-effective strategies in specific contexts. Blanket thresholds recommended for MDA may not always be the preferred option for endemic diseases.

Cost and cost-effectiveness analysis of mass drug administration compared to school-based targeted preventive chemotherapy for hookworm control in Dak Lak province, Vietnam

Background

School-based targeted preventive chemotherapy (PC), the main strategy for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) control, excludes other at-risk populations including adults and preschool children. Mass drug administration (MDA), covering all age groups, would bring additional health benefits but also requires greater investment. This cost survey and cost-effectiveness analysis compared MDA with school-based targeted PC for STH control in Dak Lak, Vietnam, where STH are endemic.

Methods

A cost survey was conducted in 2020 to estimate the total and per person economic and financial cost of each strategy. Monte Carlo simulation accounted for uncertainty in cost estimates. The primary effectiveness measure was hookworm-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, and secondary measures were hookworm infection-years averted and moderate-to-heavy intensity hookworm infection-years averted. A Markov model was used to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of MDA compared to school-based targeted PC using a government payer perspective and a ten-year time horizon. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were performed. Costs are reported in 2020 USD ($).

Findings

The economic cost per person was $0.27 for MDA and $0.43 for school-based targeted PC. MDA in Dak Lak will cost $472,000 per year, while school-based targeted PC will cost $117,000. Over 10 years, MDA is estimated to avert an additional 121,465 DALYs; 4,019,262 hookworm infection-years, and 765,844 moderate-to-heavy intensity hookworm infection-years compared to school-based targeted PC. The ICER was $28.55 per DALY averted; $0.87 per hookworm infection-years averted, and $4.54 per moderate-to-heavy intensity hookworm infection-years averted. MDA was cost-effective in all PSA iterations.

Interpretation

In areas where hookworm predominates and adults suffer a significant burden of infection, MDA is cost effective compared to school based targeted PC and is the best strategy to achieve global targets.

Funding

The project was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia (Project Grant APP1139561) and JPCDT was supported by a UNSW Scientia PhD Scholarship.

Estimating health care costs at scale in low- and middle-income countries: Mathematical notations and frameworks for the application of cost functions

Appropriate costing and economic modeling are major factors for the successful scale-up of health interventions. Various cost functions are currently being used to estimate costs of health interventions at scale in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) potentially resulting in disparate cost projections. The aim of this study is to gain understanding of current methods used and provide guidance to inform the use of cost functions that is fit for purpose. We reviewed seven databases covering the economic and global health literature to identify studies reporting a quantitative analysis of costs informing the projected scale-up of a health intervention in LMICs between 2003 and 2019. Of the 8725 articles identified, 40 met the inclusion criteria. We classified studies according to the type of cost functions applied-accounting or econometric-and described the intended use of cost projections. Based on these findings, we developed new mathematical notations and cost function frameworks for the analysis of healthcare costs at scale in LMICs setting. These notations estimate variable returns to scale in cost projection methods, which is currently ignored in most studies. The frameworks help to balance simplicity versus accuracy and increase the overall transparency in reporting of methods.

Integrated control of neglected tropical diseases in Brazil: document review of a national campaign in light of WHO recommendations

Objective

To describe the results of a national campaign aimed at the integrated control of neglected tropical diseases in Brazil in light of the World Health Organization (WHO) official documentation related to the integration of strategies for the prevention, control, and elimination or eradication of neglected tropical diseases.

Methods

A document review that included official WHO documents published between 2007 and 2020 and campaign results extracted from the official technical report produced by the Brazilian Ministry of Health.

Results

The integrated control of neglected tropical diseases was gradually incorporated in the WHO documentation over time. Preventive chemotherapy through mass drug administration, intensified case management, and integrated vector management were extensively recommended as strategies for integrated control. The Brazilian campaign was carried out in four iterations between 2013 and 2017. Children aged 5 to 14 years enrolled in municipal public schools nationwide were targeted. In summary, a total of 1 074 and 73 522 new cases of leprosy and trachoma, respectively, were detected. Nearly 18 million doses of preventive chemotherapy for soil-transmitted helminthiasis were administered. More than 700 cases of schistosomiasis were diagnosed and treated.

Conclusions

The integrated strategies implemented in Brazil throughout the campaign generated results aligned with the WHO recommendations for the control of neglected tropical diseases, especially those regarding mass drug administration, active case detection, and intensified case management. Therefore, the continuity of the campaign with adequate evaluation tools must be encouraged as a constant public health policy in the Brazilian government agenda.

The Role of Praziquantel in the Prevention and Treatment of Fibrosis Associated with Schistosomiasis: A Review

Schistosomiasis remains a major global public health concern. Currently, the control of this neglected tropical disease still depends on chemotherapy to reduce the prevalence and intensity of the parasite infection. It has been widely accepted that praziquantel is highly effective against all species of Schistosoma, and this agent is virtually the only drug of choice for the treatment of human schistosomiasis. Mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel has been shown to be effective in greatly reducing the prevalence and morbidity due to schistosomiasis worldwide. In addition to antischistosomal activity, a large number of experiential and clinical evidence has demonstrated the action of praziquantel against fibrosis caused by S. mansoni and S. japonicum infections through decreasing the expression of fibrotic biomarkers such as α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA), collagen, matrix metalloproteinase (MMP), and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase (TIMP), and inhibiting the expression of proinflammatory cytokines such as interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, and transforming growth factor (TGF)-β, as well as chemokines, and similar antifibrotic activity was observed in mouse models of fibrosis induced by carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) and concanavalin A (Con-A). In this review, we discuss the role of praziquantel in the prevention and treatment of fibrosis associated with schistosomiasis and the possible mechanisms. We call for randomized, controlled clinical trials to evaluate the efficacy and safety of praziquantel in the treatment of schistosomiasis-induced hepatic fibrosis, and further studies to investigate the potential of praziquantel against fibrosis associated with alcohol consumption, viruses, and toxins seem justified.

Cost-effectiveness evaluation of different control strategies for Clonorchis sinensis infection in a high endemic area of China: A modelling study

Clonorchiasis is an important food-borne parasitic disease caused by Clonorchis sinensis infection. The evaluation of long-term cost-effectiveness of control strategies is important for disease control and prevention. The present study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of the three recommended strategies (i.e., WHO, Chinese and Guangdong strategies) and different combinations of commonly used measures (i.e., preventive chemotherapy, information, education, and communication (IEC) and environmental improvement) on clonorchiasis. The study area, Fusha town in Guangdong Province, was a typical high endemic area in China. The analysis was based on a multi-group transmission model of C. sinensis infection. We set the intervention duration for 10 years and post-intervention period for 50 years. The corresponding costs and DALYs were estimated. Strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) less than 1/5 of the willingness-to-pay threshold were identified as highly cost-effective strategies. The optimal control strategy was obtained using the next best comparator method. The ICERs of Guangdong strategy were $172 (95% CI: $143-$230) US for praziquantel and $106 (95% CI: $85-$143) US for albendazole, suggesting the highest cost-effectiveness among the three recommended strategies. For praziquantel, 470 sets of control strategies were identified as highly cost-effective strategies for achieving infection control (prevalence<5%). The optimal strategy consisted of chemotherapy targeted on at-risk population, IEC and environmental improvement, with coverages all being 100%, and with the ICER of $202 (95% CI: $168-$271) US. The results for transmission control (prevalence<1%) and albendazole were obtained with the same procedures. The findings may help to develop control policies for C. sinensis infection in high endemic areas. Moreover, the method adopted is applicable for assessment of optimal strategies in other endemic areas.

Clonorchiasis, a food-borne trematodiases, affects millions of people in Asia. Highly cost-effective control strategies are critical for its control. Previous studies considering the economic evaluation of control strategies were rare, mostly based on interventions in practical, and not capable of evaluating long-term cost-effectiveness of strategies with possible combinations of control measures or under various coverages. Based on a dynamic, multi-group transmission model, we simulated different control strategies in a high clonorchiasis endemic area, and evaluated their cost-effectiveness. Among the three recommended strategies (i.e., WHO, Chinese and Guangdong strategies), the Guangdong strategy was the most cost-effective. For praziquantel, 470 sets of control strategies were identified as highly cost-effective strategies for achieving infection control (prevalence<5%) among the strategies of possible combinations of the three common measures (i.e., preventive chemotherapy, information, education, and communication (IEC) and environmental modification). The optimal strategy consisted of chemotherapy targeted on at-risk population, IEC and environmental improvement, with coverages all being 100%. The results for transmission control (prevalence<1%) and albendazole were obtained with the same procedures. The numerical results may help to develop control strategies for C. sinensis infection in high endemic areas. The methodology is applicable for other different endemic areas.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

Economic evaluations of scaling up strategies of evidence-based health interventions: a systematic review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Scaling science aims to help roll out evidence-based research results on a wide scale to benefit more individuals. Yet, little is known on how to evaluate economic aspects of scaling up strategies of evidence-based health interventions.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Using the Joanna Briggs Institute guidance on systematic reviews, we will conduct a systematic review of characteristics and methods applied in economic evaluations in scaling up strategies. To be eligible for inclusion, studies must include a scaling up strategy of an evidence-based health intervention delivered and received by any individual or organisation in any country and setting. They must report costs and cost-effectiveness outcomes. We will consider full or partial economic evaluations, modelling and methodological studies. We searched peer-reviewed publications in Medline, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Library Database, PEDE, EconLIT, INHATA from their inception onwards. We will search grey literature from international organisations, bilateral agencies, non-governmental organisations, consultancy firms websites and region-specific databases. Two independent reviewers will screen the records against the eligibility criteria and extract data using a pretested extraction form. We will extract data on study characteristics, scaling up strategies, economic evaluation methods and their components. We will appraise the methodological quality of included studies using the BMJ Checklist. We will narratively summarise the studies' descriptive characteristics, methodological strengths/weaknesses and the main drivers of cost-effectiveness outcomes. This study will help identify what are the trade-offs of scaling up evidence-based interventions to allocate resources efficiently.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

No ethics approval is required as no primary data will be collected. The results will be published in a peer-reviewed, international journal and presented at national and international conferences.

Modelling the ability of mass drug administration to interrupt soil-transmitted helminth transmission: Community-based deworming in Kenya as a case study

The World Health Organization has recommended the application of mass drug administration (MDA) in treating high prevalence neglected tropical diseases such as soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. MDA—which is safe, effective and inexpensive—has been widely applied to eliminate or interrupt the transmission of STHs in particular and has been offered to people in endemic regions without requiring individual diagnosis. We propose two mathematical models to investigate the impact of MDA on the mean number of worms in both treated and untreated human subpopulations. By varying the efficay of drugs, initial conditions of the models, coverage and frequency of MDA (both annual and biannual), we examine the dynamic behaviour of both models and the possibility of interruption of transmission. Both models predict that the interruption of transmission is possible if the drug efficacy is sufficiently high, but STH infection remains endemic if the drug efficacy is sufficiently low. In between these two critical values, the two models produce different predictions. By applying an additional round of biannual and annual MDA, we find that interruption of transmission is likely to happen in both cases with lower drug efficacy. In order to interrupt the transmission of STH or eliminate the infection efficiently and effectively, it is crucial to identify the appropriate efficacy of drug, coverage, frequency, timing and number of rounds of MDA.

We determine the best options for annual and biannual mass drug administration to control soil-transmitted helminths. An additional round of drugs can allow weaker drugs to be used. We apply the results to a community-based deworming project in Kenya.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

Prevalence and intensity of soil-transmitted helminth infections of children in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a geospatial analysis

BACKGROUND

Driven by global targets to eliminate soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem, governments have rapidly rolled out control programmes using school and community-based platforms. To justify and target ongoing investment, quantification of impact and identification of remaining high-risk areas are needed. We aimed to assess regional progress towards these targets.

METHODS

We did a continental-scale ecological analysis using a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model to estimate the effects of known environmental, socioeconomic, and control-related factors on the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths, and we mapped the probability that implementation units had achieved moderate-to-heavy intensity infection prevalence of less than 2% among children aged 5-14 years between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2018.

FINDINGS

We incorporated data from 26 304 georeferenced surveys, spanning 3096 (60%) of the 5183 programmatic implementation units. Our findings suggest a reduction in the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths in children aged 5-14 years in sub-Saharan Africa, from 44% in 2000 to 13% in 2018, driven by sustained delivery of preventive chemotherapy, improved sanitation, and economic development. Nevertheless, 1301 (25%) of 5183 implementation units still had an estimated prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity infection exceeding the 2% target threshold in 2018, largely concentrated in nine countries (in 1026 [79%] of 1301 implementation units): Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Angola, Mozambique, Madagascar, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates highlight the areas to target and strengthen interventions, and the areas where data gaps remain. If elimination of soil-transmitted helminths as a public health problem is to be achieved in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, continued investment in treatment and prevention activities are essential to ensure that no areas are left behind.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating Cost Functions for Resource Allocation Using Transmission Models: A Case Study of Tuberculosis Case Finding in South Africa

OBJECTIVE

Cost functions linked to transmission dynamic models are commonly used to estimate the resources required for infectious disease policies. We present a conceptual and empirical approach for estimating these functions, allowing for nonconstant marginal costs. We aim to expand on the current approach which commonly assumes linearity of cost over scale.

METHODS

We propose a theoretical framework adapted from the field of transport economics. We specify joint functions of production of services within a disease-specific program. We expand these functions to include qualitative insights of program expansion patterns. We present the difference in incremental total costs between an approach assuming constant unit costs and alternative approaches that assume economies of scale, scope and homogeneous or heterogeneous facility recruitment into the programme during scale-up. We illustrate the framework's application in tuberculosis, using secondary data from the literature and routine reporting systems in South Africa.

RESULTS

Economies of capacity and scope substantially change cost estimates over time. Cost data requirements for the proposed approach included standardized and disaggregated unit costs (for a limited number of outputs) and information on the facilities network available to the program.

CONCLUSIONS

The defined functional form will determine the magnitude and shape of costs when outputs and coverage are increasing. This in turn will impact resource allocation decisions. Infectious diseases modelers and economists should use transparent and empirically based cost models for analyses that inform resource allocation decisions. This framework describes a general approach for developing these models.

Evaluating survey designs for targeting preventive chemotherapy against Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni across sub-Saharan Africa: a geostatistical analysis and modelling study

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis control programmes primarily use school-based surveys to identify areas for mass drug administration of preventive chemotherapy. However, as the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis can be highly focal, transmission may not be detected by surveys implemented at districts or larger spatial units. Improved mapping strategies are required to accurately and cost-effectively target preventive chemotherapy to remaining foci across all possible spatial distributions of schistosomiasis.

METHODS

Here, we use geostatistical models to quantify the spatial heterogeneity of Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni across sub-Saharan Africa using the most comprehensive dataset available on school-based surveys. Applying this information to parameterise simulations, we assess the accuracy and cost of targeting alternative implementation unit sizes across the range of plausible schistosomiasis distributions. We evaluate the consequences of decisions based on survey designs implemented at district and subdistrict levels sampling different numbers of schools. Cost data were obtained from field surveys conducted across multiple countries and years, with cost effectiveness evaluated as the cost per correctly identified school.

RESULTS

Models identified marked differences in prevalence and spatial distributions between countries and species; however, results suggest implementing surveys at subdistrict level increase the accuracy of treatment classifications across most scenarios. While sampling intensively at the subdistrict level resulted in the highest classification accuracy, this sampling strategy resulted in the highest costs. Alternatively, sampling the same numbers of schools currently recommended at the district level but stratifying by subdistrict increased cost effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a new tool to evaluate schistosomiasis survey designs across a range of transmission settings. Results highlight the importance of considering spatial structure when designing sampling strategies, illustrating that a substantial proportion of children may be undertreated even when an implementation unit is correctly classified. Control programmes need to weigh the increased accuracy of more detailed mapping strategies against the survey costs and treatment priorities.

Informing Balanced Investment in Services and Health Systems: A Case Study of Priority Setting for Tuberculosis Interventions in South Africa

OBJECTIVES

Health systems face nonfinancial constraints that can influence the opportunity cost of interventions. Empirical methods to explore their impact, however, are underdeveloped. We develop a conceptual framework for defining health system constraints and empirical estimation methods that rely on routine data. We then present an empirical approach for incorporating nonfinancial constraints in cost-effectiveness models of health benefit packages for the health sector.

METHODS

We illustrate the application of this approach through a case study of defining a package of services for tuberculosis case-finding in South Africa. An economic model combining transmission model outputs with unit costs was developed to examine the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening and diagnostic algorithms. Constraints were operationalized as restrictions on achievable coverage based on: (1) financial resources; (2) human resources; and (3) policy constraints around diagnostics purchasing. Cost-effectiveness of the interventions was assessed under one "unconstrained" and several "constrained" scenarios. For the unconstrained scenario, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated with and without the costs of "relaxing" constraints.

RESULTS

We find substantial differences in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios across scenarios, leading to variations in the decision rules for prioritizing interventions. In constrained scenarios, the limiting factor for most interventions was not financial, but rather the availability of human resources.

CONCLUSIONS

We find that optimal prioritization among different tuberculosis control strategies in South Africa is influenced by whether and how constraints are taken into consideration. We thus demonstrate both the importance and feasibility of considering nonfinancial constraints in health sector resource allocation models.

Community-based survey on helminth infections in Kwilu province, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and implications for local control strategies

To adequately plan mass drug administration campaigns, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) needs further support for the mapping and monitoring of schistosomiasis (SCH) and soil-transmitted helminths (STH). We conducted a community-based survey in the health districts of Mosango and Yasa Bonga of the Kwilu province, DRC. A stratified two-stage cluster random sampling method was used to include participants into three different strata: Preschool-aged children (PSAC), school-aged children (SAC), and adults who were further subdivided into women of reproductive age (WRA) and other adults. In total, surveyors visited 30 villages, and 1 206 individuals participated in the study. Stool samples were collected to perform duplicate Kato-Katz smears for the detection of SCH and STH infection. Hookworm was the most prevalent infection in both districts, 34.1% (95%CI: 32.0–38.4), followed by A. lumbricoides (2.7%; 95%CI: 1.3–2.9) and T. trichiura (1.9%; 95%CI: 1.1–2.7). We did not find any SCH infection. The prevalence of each STH infection was similar across all risk groups, and the majority of the infected individuals was carrying light intensity infection. Compared to SAC, other adults were equally infected with hookworm. The prevalence of STH infection in SAC guides the MDA implementation because schoolchildren are most at risk and easily accessible program targets if school attendance is high. The current treatment strategy targets PSAC, SAC and WRA. However, this study shows that adults in general could also benefit from deworming. Therefore, community-wide preventive chemotherapy would be the most appropriate choice to control the hookworm burden rapidly.

Helminths are a group of intestinal worms that cause abdominal discomfort, diarrhea, and anemia due to blood loss in the stool. Regular mass drug administration (MDA) is one strategy to fight these worm infections. The appropriate MDA treatment scheme is chosen based on a population survey estimating the burden of infection. This survey is usually done in schoolchildren because they suffer the most from these infections and they are easy to reach through school infrastructures. However, one particular worm, the hookworm, is also highly present and clinically relevant in adults. We conducted a community-based survey in two districts of the Kwilu Province of the DRC. We found that hookworm was the predominant infection in the area and that adults were as often infected as the schoolchildren. Therefore, to effectively reduce hookworm infection, we advise extending treatment schemes to the entire community.

Economic evaluations of human schistosomiasis interventions: a systematic review and identification of associated research needs

Background: Schistosomiasis is one of the most prevalent neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) with an estimated 229 million people requiring preventive treatment worldwide. Recommendations for preventive chemotherapy strategies have been made by the World Health Organization (WHO) whereby the frequency of treatment is determined by the settings prevalence. Despite recent progress, many countries still need to scale up treatment and important questions remain regarding optimal control strategies. This paper presents a systematic review of the economic evaluations of human schistosomiasis interventions. Methods: A systematic review of the literature was conducted on 22nd August 2019 using the PubMed (MEDLINE) and ISI Web of Science electronic databases. The focus was economic evaluations of schistosomiasis interventions, such as cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses. No date or language stipulations were applied to the searches. Results: We identified 53 relevant health economic analyses of schistosomiasis interventions. Most studies related to Schistosoma japonicum followed by S. haematobium. Several studies also included other NTDs. In Africa, most studies evaluated preventive chemotherapy, whereas in China they mostly evaluated programmes using a combination of interventions (such as chemotherapy, snail control and health education). There was wide variation in the methodology and epidemiological settings investigated. A range of effectiveness metrics were used by the different studies. Conclusions: Due to the variation across the identified studies, it was not possible to make definitive policy recommendations. Although, in general, the current WHO recommended preventive chemotherapy approach to control schistosomiasis was found to be cost-effective. This finding has important implications for policymakers, advocacy groups and potential funders. However, there are several important inconsistencies and research gaps (such as how the health benefits of interventions are quantified) that need to be addressed to identify the resources required to achieve schistosomiasis control and elimination.

Economic evaluations of human schistosomiasis interventions: a systematic review and identification of associated research needs

Background: Schistosomiasis is one of the most prevalent neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) with an estimated 229 million people requiring preventive treatment worldwide. Recommendations for preventive chemotherapy strategies have been made by the World Health Organization (WHO) whereby the frequency of treatment is determined by the settings prevalence. Despite recent progress, many countries still need to scale up treatment and important questions remain regarding optimal control strategies. This paper presents a systematic review of the economic evaluations of human schistosomiasis interventions. Methods: A systematic review of the literature was conducted on 22nd August 2019 using the PubMed (MEDLINE) and ISI Web of Science electronic databases. The focus was economic evaluations of schistosomiasis interventions, such as cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses. No date or language stipulations were applied to the searches. Results: We identified 53 relevant health economic analyses of schistosomiasis interventions. Most studies related to Schistosoma japonicum followed by S. haematobium. Several studies also included other NTDs. In Africa, most studies evaluated preventive chemotherapy, whereas in China they mostly evaluated programmes using a combination of interventions (such as chemotherapy, snail control and health education). There was wide variation in the methodology and epidemiological settings investigated. A range of effectiveness metrics were used by the different studies. Conclusions: Due to the variation across the identified studies, it was not possible to make definitive policy recommendations. Although, in general, the current WHO recommended preventive chemotherapy approach to control schistosomiasis was found to be cost-effective. This finding has important implications for policymakers, advocacy groups and potential funders. However, there are several important inconsistencies and research gaps (such as how the health benefits of interventions are quantified) that need to be addressed to identify the resources required to achieve schistosomiasis control and elimination.

The pitfalls of scaling up evidence-based interventions in health

Policy-makers worldwide are increasingly interested in scaling up evidence-based interventions (EBIs) to larger populations, and implementation scientists are developing frameworks and methodologies for achieving this. But scaling-up does not always produce the desired results. Why not? We aimed to enhance awareness of the various pitfalls to be anticipated when planning scale-up. In lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the scale-up of health programs to prevent or respond to outbreaks of communicable diseases has been occurring for many decades. In high-income countries, there is new interest in the scaling up of interventions that address communicable and non-communicable diseases alike. We scanned the literature worldwide on problems encountered when implementing scale-up plans revealed a number of potential pitfalls that we discuss in this paper. We identified and discussed the following six major pitfalls of scaling-up EBIs: 1) the cost-effectiveness estimation pitfall, i.e. accurate cost-effectiveness estimates about real-world implementation are almost impossible, making predictions of economies of scale unreliable; 2) the health inequities pitfall, i.e. some people will necessarily be left out and therefore not benefit from the scaled-up EBIs; 3) the scaled-up harm pitfall, i.e. the harms as well as the benefits may be amplified by the scaling-up; 4) the ethical pitfall, i.e. informed consent may be a challenge on a grander scale; 5) the top-down pitfall, i.e. the needs, preferences and culture of end-users may be forgotten when scale-up is directed from above; and 6) the contextual pitfall, i.e. it may not be possible to adapt the EBIs to every context. If its pitfalls are addressed head on, scaling-up may be a powerful process for translating research data into practical improvements in healthcare in both LMICs and high-income countries, ensuring that more people benefit from EBIs.

Insights from quantitative analysis and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goals for soil-transmitted helminths

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a group of parasitic worms that infect humans, causing a wide spectrum of disease, notably anaemia, growth retardation, and delayed cognitive development. The three main STHs are Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm ( Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale). Approximately 1.5 billion people are infected with STHs worldwide. The World Health Organization goal for 2030 is morbidity control, defined as reaching <2% prevalence of medium-to-high intensity infections in preschool-age children and school-age children (SAC). Treatment guidelines for achieving this goal have been recommended. The Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical and statistical models to quantify, predict, and evaluate the impact of control measures on STHs. These models show that the morbidity target can be achieved following current guidelines in moderate prevalence settings (20-50% in SAC). In high prevalence settings, semi-annual preventive chemotherapy (PC) ideally including adults, or at least women of reproductive age, is required. For T. trichiura, dual therapy with albendazole and ivermectin is required. In general, stopping PC is not possible without infection resurgence, unless effective measures for improved access to water, hygiene, and sanitation have been implemented, or elimination of transmission has been achieved. Current diagnostic methods are based on egg counts in stool samples, but these are known to have poor sensitivity at low prevalence levels. A target threshold for novel, more sensitive diagnostics should be defined relative to currently preferred diagnostics (Kato-Katz). Our analyses identify the extent of systematic non-access to treatment and the individual patterns of compliance over multiple rounds of treatment as the biggest unknowns and the main impediment to reaching the target. Moreover, the link between morbidity and infection intensity has not been fully elucidated. By providing more insights on all the above, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for STHs.

Investigating the Effectiveness of Current and Modified World Health Organization Guidelines for the Control of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections

Background

Considerable efforts have been made to better understand the effectiveness of large-scale preventive chemotherapy therapy for the control of morbidity caused by infection with soil-transmitted helminths (STHs): Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and the 2 hookworm species, Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale. Current World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for STH control include mass drug administration (MDA) programs based on prevalence measurements, aiming at reducing morbidity in pre–school-aged children (pre-SAC) and school-aged children (SAC) by lowering the prevalence of moderate- to heavy-intensity infections to <1%.

Methods

We project the likely impact of following the current WHO guidelines and assess whether the WHO morbidity goals will be achieved across a range of transmission settings. We also investigate modifications that could be made to the current WHO treatment guidelines, and project their potential impacts in achieving morbidity and transmission control.

Results

While the standard guidelines are sufficient at low transmission levels, community-wide treatment (ie, involving pre-SAC, SAC, and adults) is essential if WHO morbidity goals are to be met in moderate- to high-transmission settings. Moreover, removing the recommendation of decreasing the treatment frequency at midline (5–6 years after the start of MDA) further improves the likelihood of achieving morbidity control in SAC.

Conclusions

We meld analyses based on 2 mathematical models of parasite transmission and control by MDA for the dominant STH species, to generate a unified treatment approach applicable across all settings, regardless of which STH infection is most common. We recommend clearly defined changes to the current WHO guidelines.

Economic Evaluations of Mass Drug Administration: The Importance of Economies of Scale and Scope

It is recognized that changing the current approaches for the control of the neglected tropical diseases will be needed to reach the World Health Organization’s (WHO) 2020 goals. Consequently, it is important that economic evaluations of the alternative approaches are conducted. A vital component of such evaluations is the issue of how the intervention’s costs should be incorporated. We discuss this issue—focusing on mass drug administration. We argue that the common approach of assuming an intervention’s cost per treatment is constant, regardless of the number of individuals treated, is a misleading way to consider the delivery costs of mass drug administration due to the occurrence of economies/diseconomies of scale and scope. Greater care and consideration are required when the costs are incorporated into such analyses. Without this, these economic evaluations could potentially lead to incorrect policy recommendations.

Insights from quantitative analysis and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goals for soil-transmitted helminths

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a group of parasitic worms that infect humans, causing a wide spectrum of disease, notably anaemia, growth retardation, and delayed cognitive development. The three main STHs are Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm (Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale). Approximately 1.5 billion people are infected with STHs worldwide. The World Health Organization goal for 2030 is morbidity control, defined as reaching <2% prevalence of medium-to-high intensity infections in preschool-age children and school-age children (SAC). Treatment guidelines for achieving this goal have been recommended. The Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical and statistical models to quantify, predict, and evaluate the impact of control measures on STHs. These models show that the morbidity target can be achieved following current guidelines in moderate prevalence settings (20-50% in SAC). In high prevalence settings, semi-annual preventive chemotherapy (PC) ideally including adults, or at least women of reproductive age, is required. For T. trichiura, dual therapy with albendazole and ivermectin is required. In general, stopping PC is not possible without infection resurgence, unless effective measures for improved access to water, hygiene, and sanitation have been implemented, or elimination of transmission has been achieved. Current diagnostic methods are based on egg counts in stool samples, but these are known to have poor sensitivity at low prevalence levels. A target threshold for novel, more sensitive diagnostics should be defined relative to currently preferred diagnostics (Kato-Katz). Our analyses identify the extent of systematic non-access to treatment and the individual patterns of compliance over multiple rounds of treatment as the biggest unknowns and the main impediment to reaching the target. Moreover, the link between morbidity and infection intensity has not been fully elucidated. By providing more insights on all the above, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for STHs.

Mapping Schistosoma mansoni endemicity in Rwanda: a critical assessment of geographical disparities arising from circulating cathodic antigen versus Kato-Katz diagnostics

BACKGROUND

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by Schistosoma parasites. Intervention relies on identifying high-risk regions, yet rapid Schistosoma diagnostics (Kato-Katz stool assays (KK) and circulating cathodic antigen urine assays (CCA)) yield different prevalence estimates. We mapped S. mansoni prevalence and delineated at-risk regions using a survey of schoolchildren in Rwanda, where S. mansoni is an endemic parasite. We asked if different diagnostics resulted in disparities in projected infection risk.

METHODS

Infection data was obtained from a 2014 Rwandan school-based survey that used KK and CCA diagnostics. Across 386 schools screened by CCA (N = 19,217). To allow for uncertainty when interpreting ambiguous CCA trace readings, which accounted for 28.8% of total test results, we generated two presence-absence datasets: CCA trace as positive and CCA trace as negative. Samples (N = 9,175) from 185 schools were also screened by KK. We included land surface temperature (LST) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation and Normalized Difference Water Indices (NDVI, NDWI) as predictors in geostatistical regressions.

FINDINGS

Across 8,647 children tested by both methods, prevalence was 35.93% for CCA trace as positive, 7.21% for CCA trace as negative and 1.95% for KK. LST was identified as a risk factor using KK, whereas NDVI was a risk factor for CCA models. Models predicted high endemicity in Northern and Western regions of Rwanda, though the CCA trace as positive model identified additional high-risk areas that were overlooked by the other methods. Estimates of current burden for children at highest risk (boys aged 5-9 years) varied by an order of magnitude, with 671,856 boys projected to be infected by CCA trace as positive and only 60,453 projected by CCA trace as negative results.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that people in Rwanda's Northern, Western and capital regions are at high risk of S. mansoni infection. However, variation in identification of environmental risk factors and delineation of at-risk regions using different diagnostics likely provides confusing messages to disease intervention managers. Further research and statistical analyses, such as latent class analysis, can be used to improve CCA result classification and assess its use in guiding treatment regimes.

Heterogeneity in transmission parameters of hookworm infection within the baseline data from the TUMIKIA study in Kenya

Background

As many countries with endemic soil-transmitted helminth (STH) burdens achieve high coverage levels of mass drug administration (MDA) to treat school-aged and pre-school-aged children, understanding the detailed effects of MDA on the epidemiology of STH infections is desirable in formulating future policies for morbidity and/or transmission control. Prevalence and mean intensity of infection are characterized by heterogeneity across a region, leading to uncertainty in the impact of MDA strategies. In this paper, we analyze this heterogeneity in terms of factors that govern the transmission dynamics of the parasite in the host population.

Results

Using data from the TUMIKIA study in Kenya (cluster STH prevalence range at baseline: 0–63%), we estimated these parameters and their variability across 120 population clusters in the study region, using a simple parasite transmission model and Gibbs-sampling Monte Carlo Markov chain techniques. We observed great heterogeneity in R₀ values, with estimates ranging from 1.23 to 3.27, while k-values (which vary inversely with the degree of parasite aggregation within the human host population) range from 0.007 to 0.29 in a positive association with increasing prevalence. The main finding of this study is the increasing trend for greater parasite aggregation as prevalence declines to low levels, reflected in the low values of the negative binomial parameter k in clusters with low hookworm prevalence. Localized climatic and socioeconomic factors are investigated as potential drivers of these observed epidemiological patterns.

Conclusions

Our results show that lower prevalence is associated with higher degrees of aggregation and hence prevalence alone is not a good indicator of transmission intensity. As a consequence, approaches to MDA and monitoring and evaluation of community infection status may need to be adapted as transmission elimination is aimed for by targeted treatment approaches.

Contrasting the value of targeted versus area-wide mosquito control scenarios to limit arbovirus transmission with human mobility patterns based on different tropical urban population centers

Vector control is still our primary intervention for both prevention and mitigation of epidemics of many vector-borne diseases. Efficiently targeting control measures is important since control can involve substantial economic costs. Targeting is not always straightforward, as transmission of vector-borne diseases is affected by various types of host movement. Here we assess how taking daily commuting patterns into consideration can help improve vector control efforts. We examine three tropical urban centers (San Juan, Recife, and Jakarta) that have recently been exposed to Zika and/or dengue infections and consider whether the distribution of human populations and resulting commuting flows affects the optimal scale at which control interventions should be implemented. We developed a stochastic, spatial model and investigated four control scenarios. The scenarios differed in the spatial extent of their implementation and were: 1) a response at the level of an individual neighborhood; 2) a response targeted at a neighborhood in which infected humans were detected and the one with which it was most strongly connected by human movement; 3) a limited area-wide response where all neighborhoods within a certain radius of the focal area were included; and 4) a collective response where all participating neighborhoods implemented control. The relative effectiveness of the scenarios varied only slightly between different settings, with the number of infections averted over time increasing with the scale of implementation. This difference depended on the efficacy of control at the neighborhood level. At low levels of efficacy, the scenarios mirrored each other in infections averted. At high levels of efficacy, impact increased with the scale of the intervention. As a result, the choice between scenarios will not only be a function of the amount of effort decision-makers are willing to invest, but largely epend on the overall effectiveness of vector control approaches.

Control and prevention of Aedes-transmitted viruses, such as dengue, chikungunya, or Zika relies heavily on vector control approaches. Given the effort and cost involved in implementation of vector control, targeting of control measures is highly desirable. However, it is unclear to what extent the effectiveness of highly focal and reactive control measures depends on the commuting and movement patterns of humans. To investigate this question, we developed a model and four control scenarios that ranged from highly focal to area-wide larval control. The distribution of humans and their commuting patterns were modelled after three major tropical urban centers, San Juan, Recife, and Jakarta. We show that as implementation is applied across a wider area, a greater number of infections is averted. Critically, this only occurs if the efficacy of control at the neighborhood level is sufficiently high. A consistent outcome across the three settings was that the focal strategy was most likely to provide the best outcome at lower levels of effort, and when the efficacy of control was low. These outcomes suggest that optimal control strategies will likely have to be tailored to individual settings by decision makers and would benefit from localized cost-effectiveness modelling studies.

Economic performance and cost-effectiveness of using a DEC-salt social enterprise for eliminating the major neglected tropical disease, lymphatic filariasis

Background

Salt fortified with the drug, diethylcarbamazine (DEC), and introduced into a competitive market has the potential to overcome the obstacles associated with tablet-based Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) elimination programs. Questions remain, however, regarding the economic viability, production capacity, and effectiveness of this strategy as a sustainable means to bring about LF elimination in resource poor settings.

Methodology and principal findings

We evaluated the performance and effectiveness of a novel social enterprise-based approach developed and tested in Léogâne, Haiti, as a strategy to sustainably and cost-efficiently distribute DEC-medicated salt into a competitive market at quantities sufficient to bring about the elimination of LF. We undertook a cost-revenue analysis to evaluate the production capability and financial feasibility of the developed DEC salt social enterprise, and a modeling study centered on applying a dynamic mathematical model localized to reflect local LF transmission dynamics to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of using this intervention versus standard annual Mass Drug Administration (MDA) for eliminating LF in Léogâne. We show that the salt enterprise because of its mixed product business strategy may have already reached the production capacity for delivering sufficient quantities of edible DEC-medicated salt to bring about LF transmission in the Léogâne study setting. Due to increasing revenues obtained from the sale of DEC salt over time, expansion of its delivery in the population, and greater cumulative impact on the survival of worms leading to shorter timelines to extinction, this strategy could also represent a significantly more cost-effective option than annual DEC tablet-based MDA for accomplishing LF elimination.

Significance

A social enterprise approach can offer an innovative market-based strategy by which edible salt fortified with DEC could be distributed to communities both on a financially sustainable basis and at sufficient quantity to eliminate LF. Deployment of similarly fashioned intervention strategies would improve current efforts to successfully accomplish the goal of LF elimination, particularly in difficult-to-control settings.

With less than three years remaining for meeting the initial 2020 target set by WHO for accomplishing the global elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF), concerns are emerging regarding the feasibility of meeting this goal using the current tablet-based Mass Drug Administration strategy. Salt fortified with the antifilarial drug, diethylcarbamazine (DEC), could offer an intervention that avoids many of the barriers connected with tablet-based elimination programs. We analyzed the economic performance and cost-effectiveness of a novel DEC-salt social enterprise developed and tested in Léogâne arrondissement, Haiti, as a particularly significant strategy for accomplishing sustainable LF elimination in such complex settings. We show that because of increasing revenue from the sale of the DEC salt over time, expansion of its delivery in the population, and the adverse effect of continuous consumption of the drug on worms, the delivery of DEC through a salt enterprise can represent a significantly more cost-effective option than annual DEC tablet-based MDA for accomplishing LF elimination in settings, like Léogâne. We indicate that development of policy and research into how to deploy similarly-fashioned interventions, or work with the salt industry to increase population use of medicated salt, would improve present efforts to successfully accomplish the elimination of LF.

Impact of community-based integrated mass drug administration on schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminth prevalence in Togo

Background

Togo has conducted annual, integrated, community-based mass drug administration (MDA) for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and schistosomiasis since 2010. Treatment frequency and target populations are determined by disease prevalence, as measured by baseline surveys in 2007 and 2009, and WHO guidelines. Reported programmatic treatment coverage has averaged over 94%. Togo conducted a cross-sectional survey in 2015 to assess the impact of four to five years of MDA on these diseases.

Methodology/Principal findings

In every sub-district in the country outside the capital, the same schools were visited as at baseline and a sample of fifteen children age 6 to 9 years old was drawn. Each child submitted urine and a stool sample. Urine samples were tested by dipstick for the presence of blood as a proxy measure of Schistosoma haematobium infection. Stool samples were analyzed by the Kato-Katz method for STH and Schistosoma mansoni. At baseline, 17,100 children were enrolled at 1,129 schools in 562 sub-districts; in 2015, 16,890 children were enrolled at the same schools. The overall prevalence of both STH and schistosomiasis declined significantly, from 31.5% to 11.6% for STH and from 23.5% to 5.0% for schistosomiasis (p<0.001 in both instances). Egg counts from both years were available only for hookworm and S. mansoni; intensity of infection decreased significantly for both infections from 2009 to 2015 (p<0.001 for both infections). In areas with high baseline prevalence, rebound of hookworm infection was noted in children who had not received albendazole in the past 6 months.

Conclusions/Significance

After four to five years of MDA in Togo, the prevalence and intensity of STH and schistosomiasis infection were significantly reduced compared to baseline. Data on STH indicate that stopping MDA in areas with high baseline prevalence may result in significant rebound of infection. Togo’s findings may help refine treatment recommendations for these diseases.

Mass drug administration (MDA) is a key component of programs aimed at controlling soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and schistosomiasis, diseases that disproportionately impact individuals in developing countries and adversely affect physical and cognitive development. The World Health Organization recommends evaluating the impact of mass drug administration on the prevalence of these infections after five years of MDA. We present here a study of the impact of four to five years of MDA on the prevalence and intensity of STH and schistosomiasis infections in school children in Togo. The prevalence and intensity of these infections in 2015 were significantly reduced compared to a baseline survey conducted in 2009. Local baseline prevalence in 2009 was the strongest predictor of infection in 2015. These infections are more prevalent in boys than in girls, and in older versus younger children. We found that in areas with high baseline prevalence of hookworm the risk of rebound of infection is high among children who do not receive bi-annual treatment. This information is important for programs weighing the decision to stop MDA in areas where prevalence has been reduced through treatment. This and other findings from this study may help refine treatment recommendations for these diseases.

Equity and efficiency in the scaled-up implementation of integrated neglected tropical disease control: the health economics protocol of the COUNTDOWN multicountry observational study in Ghana, Cameroon and Liberia

INTRODUCTION

Worldwide, millions of individuals are affected by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). They are frequently the poorest and most marginalised members of society. Their living conditions, among other things, make them susceptible to such diseases. Historically, several large-scale treatment programmes providing mass drug administrations (MDAs) were carried out per single disease but over the last decade there has been an increasing trend towards co-implementation of MDA activities given the resources used for such programmes are often the same. The COUNTDOWN multicountry studies focus on scaled-up implementation of integrated control strategies against four diseases: lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis. The objective of the COUNTDOWN economic study is to assess the multicountry implementation of control interventions in terms of equity, impact and efficiency.

METHODS

The health economic study uses different analytical methods to assess the relationship between NTDs and poverty and the cost-effectiveness of different large-scale intervention options. Regression analysis will be used to study the determinants of NTD occurrence, the impact of NTDs on poverty, factors that hinder access to MDAs and the effect of NTDs on quality-of-life of those affected, including disability. Cost-effectiveness analyses of various integration methods will be performed using health economic modelling to estimate the cost and programme impact of different integration options. Here, cost-effectiveness ratios will be calculated, including multivariate sensitivity analyses, using Bayesian analysis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval has been received both at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and in all participating countries. Results of the various substudies will be presented for publication in peer-reviewed journals.

STUDY DATES

1 July 2016 to 30 June-October 2019.

100 Years of Mass Deworming Programmes: A Policy Perspective From the World Bank's Disease Control Priorities Analyses

For more than 100 years, countries have used mass drug administration as a public health response to soil-transmitted helminth infection. The series of analyses published as Disease Control Priorities is the World Bank's vehicle for exploring the cost-effectiveness and value for money of public health interventions. The first edition was published in 1993 as a technical supplement to the World Bank's World Development Report Investing in Health where deworming was used as an illustrative example of value for money in treating diseases with relatively low morbidity but high prevalence. Over the second (2006) and now third (2017) editions deworming has been an increasingly persuasive example to use for this argument. The latest analyses recognize the negative impact of intestinal worm infection on human capital in poor communities and document a continuing decline in worm infection as a result of the combination of high levels of mass treatment and ongoing economic development trends in poor communities.

Economic evaluations of lymphatic filariasis interventions: a systematic review and research needs

In 2000, the World Health Organization established the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF), with the goal of eliminating the disease as a public health problem by 2020. Since the start of the programme, a cumulative total of 6.2 billion treatments have been delivered to affected populations - with more than 556 million people treated in 2015 alone. In this paper, we perform a rigorous systematic review of the economic evaluations of lymphatic filariasis interventions have been conducted. We demonstrate that the standard interventions to control lymphatic filariasis are consistently found to be highly cost-effective. This finding has important implications for advocacy groups and potential funders. However, there are several important inconsistencies and research gaps that need to be addressed as we move forward towards the 2020 elimination goals. One of the most important identified research gaps was a lack of evaluation of new interventions specifically targeting areas co-endemic with onchocerciasis and Loa loa - which could become a major barrier to achieving elimination.

Current epidemiological evidence for predisposition to high or low intensity human helminth infection: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The human helminth infections include ascariasis, trichuriasis, hookworm infections, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis (LF) and onchocerciasis. It is estimated that almost 2 billion people worldwide are infected with helminths. Whilst the WHO treatment guidelines for helminth infections are mostly aimed at controlling morbidity, there has been a recent shift with some countries moving towards goals of disease elimination through mass drug administration, especially for LF and onchocerciasis. However, as prevalence is driven lower, treating entire populations may no longer be the most efficient or cost-effective strategy. Instead, it may be beneficial to identify individuals or demographic groups who are persistently infected, often termed as being "predisposed" to infection, and target treatment at them.

METHODS

The authors searched Embase, MEDLINE, Global Health, and Web of Science for all English language, human-based papers investigating predisposition to helminth infections published up to October 31st, 2017. The varying definitions used to describe predisposition, and the statistical tests used to determine its presence, are summarised. Evidence for predisposition is presented, stratified by helminth species, and risk factors for predisposition to infection are identified and discussed.

RESULTS

In total, 43 papers were identified, summarising results from 34 different studies in 23 countries. Consistent evidence of predisposition to infection with certain species of human helminth was identified. Children were regularly found to experience greater predisposition to Ascaris lumbricoides, Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium than adults. Females were found to be more predisposed to A. lumbricoides infection than were males. Household clustering of infection was identified for A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura and S. japonicum. Ascaris lumbricoides and T. trichiura also showed evidence of familial predisposition. Whilst strong evidence for predisposition to hookworm infection was identified, findings with regards to which groups were affected were considerably more varied than for other helminth species.

CONCLUSION

This review has found consistent evidence of predisposition to heavy (and light) infection for certain human helminth species. However, further research is needed to identify reasons for the reported differences between demographic groups. Molecular epidemiological methods associated with whole genome sequencing to determine 'who infects whom' may shed more light on the factors generating predisposition.

Systematic review of studies generating individual participant data on the efficacy of drugs for treating soil-transmitted helminthiases and the case for data-sharing

Background

Preventive chemotherapy and transmission control (PCT) by mass drug administration is the cornerstone of the World Health Organization (WHO)’s policy to control soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs) caused by Ascaris lumbricoides (roundworm), Trichuris trichiura (whipworm) and hookworm species (Necator americanus and Ancylostama duodenale) which affect over 1 billion people globally. Despite consensus that drug efficacies should be monitored for signs of decline that could jeopardise the effectiveness of PCT, systematic monitoring and evaluation is seldom implemented. Drug trials mostly report aggregate efficacies in groups of participants, but heterogeneities in design complicate classical meta-analyses of these data. Individual participant data (IPD) permit more detailed analysis of drug efficacies, offering increased sensitivity to identify atypical responses potentially caused by emerging drug resistance.

Methodology

We performed a systematic literature review to identify studies concluding after 2000 that collected IPD suitable for estimating drug efficacy against STH. We included studies that administered a variety of anthelmintics with follow ups less than 60 days after treatment. We estimated the number of IPD and extracted cohort- and study-level meta-data.

Principal findings

We estimate that there exist individual data on approximately 35,000 participants from 129 studies conducted in 39 countries, including 34 out of 103 countries where PCT is recommended. We find significant heterogeneity in diagnostic methods, times of outcome assessment, and the reported measure of efficacy. We also quantify cohorts comprising pre-school age children, pregnant women, and co-infected participants, including with HIV.

Conclusions

We argue that establishing a global IPD repository would improve the capacity to monitor and evaluate the efficacy of anthelmintic drugs, respond to changes and safeguard the ongoing effectiveness of PCT. Establishing a fair, transparent data governance policy will be key for the engagement of the global STH community.

Soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs) caused by roundworm, whipworm or hookworm affect over one billion of the world’s poorest people mostly living in low and middle income countries, exerting a major health and economic toll. These infections are controlled by regular mass drug distribution to affected populations. But with very few alternative medicines, the effectiveness of treatment programmes is vulnerable to the potential emergence of drug resistance. Despite a recent scale-up of mass drug distribution, systematic monitoring and evaluation of the efficacy of treatment is too rarely undertaken and our knowledge of how the drugs are performing is largely based on information from clinical trials. However, the design and reporting of information from these trials is very variable which makes it difficult to form a comprehensive picture of the status and trends in drug efficacy. Here, we present a systematic review of published studies completed since 2000, characterise variation in their design, implementation and reporting and estimate the abundance of individual participant data. We argue that the co-ordinated sharing of these individual data would greatly increase the capacity of the global health community to monitor effectively drug efficacy, to respond accordingly to changes, and thereby to safeguard the effectiveness of STH control.

Optimising cluster survey design for planning schistosomiasis preventive chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

The cornerstone of current schistosomiasis control programmes is delivery of praziquantel to at-risk populations. Such preventive chemotherapy requires accurate information on the geographic distribution of infection, yet the performance of alternative survey designs for estimating prevalence and converting this into treatment decisions has not been thoroughly evaluated.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We used baseline schistosomiasis mapping surveys from three countries (Malawi, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia) to generate spatially realistic gold standard datasets, against which we tested alternative two-stage cluster survey designs. We assessed how sampling different numbers of schools per district (2-20) and children per school (10-50) influences the accuracy of prevalence estimates and treatment class assignment, and we compared survey cost-efficiency using data from Malawi. Due to the focal nature of schistosomiasis, up to 53% simulated surveys involving 2-5 schools per district failed to detect schistosomiasis in low endemicity areas (1-10% prevalence). Increasing the number of schools surveyed per district improved treatment class assignment far more than increasing the number of children sampled per school. For Malawi, surveys of 15 schools per district and 20-30 children per school reliably detected endemic schistosomiasis and maximised cost-efficiency. In sensitivity analyses where treatment costs and the country considered were varied, optimal survey size was remarkably consistent, with cost-efficiency maximised at 15-20 schools per district.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Among two-stage cluster surveys for schistosomiasis, our simulations indicated that surveying 15-20 schools per district and 20-30 children per school optimised cost-efficiency and minimised the risk of under-treatment, with surveys involving more schools of greater cost-efficiency as treatment costs rose.

Evaluating the variation in the projected benefit of community-wide mass treatment for schistosomiasis: Implications for future economic evaluations

Background

The majority of schistosomiasis control programmes focus on targeting school-aged children. Expanding the use of community-wide mass treatment to reach more adults is under consideration. However, it should be noted that this would require a further increase in programmatic resources, international aid, and commitment for the provision of praziquantel. Consequently, it is important to understand (i) where a change of strategy would have the greatest benefit, and (ii) how generalisable the conclusions of field trials and analytical studies based on mathematical models investigating the impact of community-wide mass treatment, are to a broad range of settings.

Methods

In this paper, we employ a previously described deterministic fully age-structured schistosomiasis transmission model and evaluate the benefit of community-wide mass treatment both in terms of controlling morbidity and eliminating transmission for Schistosoma mansoni, across a wide range of epidemiological settings and programmatic scenarios. This included variation in the baseline relative worm pre-control burden in adults, the overall level of transmission in defined settings, choice of effectiveness metric (basing morbidity calculations on prevalence or intensity), the level of school enrolment and treatment compliance.

Results

Community-wide mass treatment was found to be more effective for controlling the transmission of schistosome parasites than using a school-based programme only targeting school-aged children. However, in the context of morbidity control, the potential benefit of switching to community-wide mass treatment was highly variable across the different scenarios analysed. In contrast, for areas where the goal is to eliminate transmission, the projected benefit of community-wide mass treatment was more consistent.

Conclusion

Whether community-wide mass treatment is appropriate will depend on the local epidemiological setting (i.e. the relative pre-control burden in adults and transmission intensity), and whether the goal is morbidity control or eliminating transmission. This has important implications regarding the generalisability of cost-effectiveness analyses of schistosomiasis interventions. Our results indicate that areas with poor school-enrolment/coverage could benefit more from community-wide treatment of praziquantel and should potentially be prioritised for any change in strategy. This work highlights the importance of not over-generalising conclusions and policy in this area, but of basing decisions on high quality epidemiological data and quantitative analyses of the impact of interventions in a range of settings.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-017-2141-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Probabilistic forecasts of trachoma transmission at the district level: A statistical model comparison

The World Health Organization and its partners are aiming to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem by 2020. In this study, we compare forecasts of TF prevalence in 2011 for 7 different statistical and mechanistic models across 9 de-identified trachoma endemic districts, representing 4 unique trachoma endemic countries. We forecast TF prevalence between 1-6 years ahead in time and compare the 7 different models to the observed 2011 data using a log-likelihood score. An SIS model, including a district-specific random effect for the district-specific transmission coefficient, had the highest log-likelihood score across all 9 districts and was therefore the best performing model. While overall the deterministic transmission model was the least well performing model, although it did comparably well to the other models for 8 of 9 districts. We perform a statistically rigorous comparison of the forecasting ability of a range of mathematical and statistical models across multiple endemic districts between 1 and 6 years ahead of the last collected TF prevalence data point in 2011, assessing results against surveillance data. This study is a step towards making statements about likelihood and time to elimination with regard to the WHO GET2020 goals.

Assessing the interruption of the transmission of human helminths with mass drug administration alone: optimizing the design of cluster randomized trials

BACKGROUND

A method is outlined for the use of an individual-based stochastic model of parasite transmission dynamics to assess different designs for a cluster randomized trial in which mass drug administration (MDA) is employed in attempts to eliminate the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) in defined geographic locations. The hypothesis to be tested is: Can MDA alone interrupt the transmission of STH species in defined settings? Clustering is at a village level and the choice of clusters of villages is stratified by transmission intensity (low, medium and high) and parasite species mix (either Ascaris, Trichuris or hookworm dominant).

RESULTS

The methodological approach first uses an age-structured deterministic model to predict the MDA coverage required for treating pre-school aged children (Pre-SAC), school aged children (SAC) and adults (Adults) to eliminate transmission (crossing the breakpoint in transmission created by sexual mating in dioecious helminths) with 3 rounds of annual MDA. Stochastic individual-based models are then used to calculate the positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively, for observing elimination or the bounce back of infection) for a defined prevalence of infection 2 years post the cessation of MDA. For the arm only involving the treatment of Pre-SAC and SAC, the failure rate is predicted to be very high (particularly for hookworm-infected villages) unless transmission intensity is very low (R0, or the effective reproductive number R, just above unity in value).

CONCLUSIONS

The calculations are designed to consider various trial arms and stratifications; namely, community-based treatment and Pre-SAC and SAC only treatment (the two arms of the trial), different STH transmission settings of low, medium and high, and different STH species mixes. Results are considered in the light of the complications introduced by the choice of statistic to define success or failure, varying adherence to treatment, migration and parameter uncertainty.

Effectiveness of Albendazole for Hookworm Varies Widely by Community and Correlates with Nutritional Factors: A Cross-Sectional Study of School-Age Children in Ghana

Mass drug administration (MDA) targeting school-age children is recommended by the World Health Organization for the global control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections. Although considered safe and cost-effective to deliver, benzimidazole anthelminthics are variably effective against the three most common STHs, and widespread use has raised concern about the potential for emerging resistance. To identify factors mediating response to albendazole, we conducted a cross-sectional study of hookworm infection in the Kintampo North Municipality of Ghana in 2011. Among 140 school-age children residing in five contiguous communities, the hookworm prevalence was 59% (82/140). The overall cure rate following administration of single-dose albendazole (400 mg) was 35% (27/76), with a community-wide fecal egg reduction rate (ERR) of 61% (95% confidence interval: 51.8-71.1). Significant disparities were observed in albendazole effectiveness by community, with a cure rate as low as 0% (N = 24) in Jato Akuraa and ERRs ranging from 53% to 95% across the five study sites. Individual host factors associated with response to deworming treatment included time since last meal, pretreatment blood hemoglobin level, and mid-upper arm circumference. These data demonstrate significant community-level variation in the effectiveness of albendazole, even among populations living in close proximity. Identification of host factors that influence response to albendazole, most notably the timing of drug administration and nutritional factors, creates an opportunity to enhance the effectiveness of deworming through targeted interventions. These findings also demonstrate the importance of measuring anthelminthic response as part of the monitoring and evaluation of community-based deworming programs.

Soil-Transmitted Helminths: Mathematical Models of Transmission, the Impact of Mass Drug Administration and Transmission Elimination Criteria

Infections caused by soil-transmitted helminthias (STHs) affect over a billion people worldwide, causing anaemia and having a large social and economic impact through poor educational outcomes. They are identified in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases as a target for renewed effort to ameliorate their global public health burden through mass drug administration (MDA) and water and hygiene improvement. In this chapter, we review the underlying biology and epidemiology of the three causative intestinal nematode species that are mostly considered under the STH umbrella term. We review efforts to model the transmission cycle of these helminths in populations and the effects of preventative chemotherapy on their control and elimination. Recent modelling shows that the different epidemiological characteristics of the parasitic nematode species that make up the STH group can lead to quite distinct responses to any given form of MDA. When connected with models of treatment cost-effectiveness, these models are potentially a powerful tool for informing public policy. A number of shortcomings are identified; lack of critical types of data and poor understanding of diagnostic sensitivities hamper efforts to test and hence improve models.

Analysis of the population-level impact of co-administering ivermectin with albendazole or mebendazole for the control and elimination of Trichuris trichiura

Introduction

Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are predominately controlled by providing children with preventive chemotherapy with either albendazole or mebendazole. However, neither has a high efficacy against Trichuris trichiura. This low efficacy limits the overall effectiveness of the current STH control programmes against T. trichiura. It has been demonstrated that co-administering ivermectin with albendazole or mebendazole significantly increases the efficacy of current treatments, which may increase the overall effectiveness of control programmes.

Methods

Using a STH transmission mathematical model, we evaluated the potential impact of co-administering ivermectin with albendazole or mebendazole to treat T. trichiura within a preventive chemotherapy programme targeting children (2–15 year olds). We evaluated the impact in terms of reduction in prevalent infections, mean worm burden, and prevalence of heavy infections.

Results

Although the current treatment strategy reduced T. trichiura worm burden and prevalence of heavy infections, due to their poor efficacy the long term impact of preventive chemotherapy for children was smaller compared to the other STH. Co-administering ivermectin increased the projected impact of the preventive chemotherapy programme in terms of all three of the explored metrics, practically in high transmission settings. Furthermore, ivermectin co-administration greatly increased the feasibility of and timeframe for breaking transmission.

Conclusions

Co-administering ivermectin notably increased the projected impact of preventive chemotherapy in high transmission settings and increased the feasibility for breaking transmission. This has important implications for control programmes, some of which may be shifting focus from morbidity control to interruption of transmission, and some of which may be logistically unable to provide preventive chemotherapy twice a year as recommended. However, the benefit of co-administering ivermectin is limited by the fact that 2–5 year olds are often ineligible to receive treatment.

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The impact of chemotherapy against Trichuris is smaller compared to what can be seen for the other soil-transmitted helminths.

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Co-administering ivermectin increases the projected impact of preventive chemotherapy.

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It also has the potential to interrupt transmission in some settings.

An economic evaluation of expanding hookworm control strategies to target the whole community

Background

The WHO treatment guidelines for the soil-transmitted helminths (STH) focus on targeting children for the control of morbidity induced by heavy infections. However, unlike the other STHs, the majority of hookworm infections are harboured by adults. This untreated burden may have important implications for controlling both hookworm’s morbidity and transmission. This is particularly significant in the context of the increased interest in investigating STH elimination strategies.

Methods

We used a deterministic STH transmission model and parameter estimates derived from field epidemiological studies to evaluate the impact of child-targeted (2–14 year olds) versus community-wide treatment against hookworm in terms of preventing morbidity and the timeframe for breaking transmission. Furthermore, we investigated how mass treatment may influence the long-term programmatic costs of preventive chemotherapy for hookworm.

Results

The model projected that a large proportion of the overall morbidity due to hookworm was unaffected by the current child-targeted strategy. Furthermore, driving worm burdens to levels low enough to potentially break transmission was only possible when using community-wide treatment. Due to these projected reductions in programme duration, it was possible for community-wide treatment to generate cost savings – even if it notably increases the annual distribution costs.

Conclusions

Community-wide treatment is notably more cost-effective for controlling hookworm’s morbidity and transmission than the current child-targeted strategies and could even be cost-saving in many settings in the longer term. These calculations suggest that it is not optimum to treat using the same treatment strategies as other STH. Hookworm morbidity and transmission control require community-wide treatment.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1187-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.