Effectiveness of influenza vaccination on influenza-associated hospitalisations over time among children in Hong Kong: a test-negative case-control study

Exploring the effect of clinical case definitions on influenza vaccine effectiveness estimation at primary care level: Results from the end-of-season 2022-23 VEBIS multicentre study in Europe

BACKGROUND

Within influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies at primary care level with a laboratory-confirmed outcome, clinical case definitions for recruitment of patients can vary. We used the 2022-23 VEBIS primary care European multicentre study end-of-season data to evaluate whether the clinical case definition affected IVE estimates.

METHODS

We estimated VE using a multicentre test-negative case-control design. We measured VE against any influenza and influenza (sub)types, by age group (0-14, 15-64, ≥65 years) and by influenza vaccine target group, using logistic regression. We estimated IVE among patients meeting the European Union (EU) acute respiratory infection (ARI) case definition and among those meeting the EU influenza-like illness (ILI) case definition, including only sites providing information on specific symptoms and recruiting patients using an ARI case definition (as the EU ILI case definition is a subset of the EU ARI one).

RESULTS

We included 24 319 patients meeting the EU ARI case definition, of whom 21 804 patients (90 %) meet the EU ILI case definition, for the overall pooled VE analysis against any influenza. The overall and influenza (sub)type-specific VE varied by ≤2 % between EU ILI and EU ARI populations.

DISCUSSION

Among all analyses, we found similar VE estimates between the EU ILI and EU ARI populations, with few (10%) additional non-ILI ARI patients recruited. These results indicate that VE in the 2022-23 influenza season was not affected by use of a different clinical case definition for recruitment, although we recommend investigating whether this holds true for next seasons.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against hospitalizations associated with influenza A(H3N2) in Hong Kong children aged 9 months to 17 years, June-November 2023

A test negative study was carried out from 13 June through to 15 November 2023 enrolling 3183 children hospitalized with acute respiratory illness in Hong Kong. Influenza A and B viruses were detected in 528 (16.6%) children, among which 419 (79.4%) were influenza A(H3N2). The overall vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization associated with any influenza virus infection was estimated as 22.4% (95% CI: -11.7%, 46.1%), and against influenza A(H3N2) specifically was 14.3% (95% CI: -29.2%, 43.2%). Despite the moderate to low VE estimated here, which could be a result of waning immunity and antigenic drift, influenza vaccination remains an important approach to reduce the impact of influenza in children.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Influenza-Associated Hospitalization in Hong Kong Children Aged 9 Months to 17 Years, March-June 2023

In March-June 2023, we conducted a test-negative study in 1671 children who were hospitalized with acute respiratory illness in Hong Kong. Two hundred and eighty-six children (17.2%) were tested positive for influenza virus including 188 with A(H1N1). We estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza-associated hospitalization as 69.6% (95% confidence interval: 49.3%, 81.7%).

Repeatability and timing of tropical influenza epidemics

Much of the world experiences influenza in yearly recurring seasons, particularly in temperate areas. These patterns can be considered repeatable if they occur predictably and consistently at the same time of year. In tropical areas, including southeast Asia, timing of influenza epidemics is less consistent, leading to a lack of consensus regarding whether influenza is repeatable. This study aimed to assess repeatability of influenza in Vietnam, with repeatability defined as seasonality that occurs at a consistent time of year with low variation. We developed a mathematical model incorporating parameters to represent periods of increased transmission and then fitted the model to data collected from sentinel hospitals throughout Vietnam as well as four temperate locations. We fitted the model for individual (sub)types of influenza as well as all combined influenza throughout northern, central, and southern Vietnam. Repeatability was evaluated through the variance of the timings of peak transmission. Model fits from Vietnam show high variance (sd = 64-179 days) in peak transmission timing, with peaks occurring at irregular intervals and throughout different times of year. Fits from temperate locations showed regular, annual epidemics in winter months, with low variance in peak timings (sd = 32-57 days). This suggests that influenza patterns are not repeatable or seasonal in Vietnam. Influenza prevention in Vietnam therefore cannot rely on anticipation of regularly occurring outbreaks.

Sustained Within-season Vaccine Effectiveness Against Influenza-associated Hospitalization in Children: Evidence From the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, 2015-2016 Through 2019-2020

BACKGROUND

Adult studies have demonstrated within-season declines in influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE); data in children are limited.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective, test-negative study of children 6 months through 17 years hospitalized with acute respiratory illness at 7 pediatric medical centers during the 2015-2016 through 2019-2020 influenza seasons. Case-patients were children with an influenza-positive molecular test matched by illness onset to influenza-negative control-patients. We estimated VE [100% × (1 - odds ratio)] by comparing the odds of receipt of ≥1 dose of influenza vaccine ≥14 days before illness onset among influenza-positive children to influenza-negative children. Changes in VE over time between vaccination date and illness onset date were estimated using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 8430 children, 4653 (55%) received ≥1 dose of influenza vaccine. On average, 48% were vaccinated through October and 85% through December each season. Influenza vaccine receipt was lower in case-patients than control-patients (39% vs 57%, P < .001); overall VE against hospitalization was 53% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 46, 60%). Pooling data across 5 seasons, the odds of influenza-associated hospitalization increased 4.2% (-3.2%, 12.2%) per month since vaccination, with an average VE decrease of 1.9% per month (n = 4000, P = .275). Odds of hospitalization increased 2.9% (95% CI: -5.4%, 11.8%) and 9.6% (95% CI: -7.0%, 29.1%) per month in children ≤8 years (n = 3084) and 9-17 years (n = 916), respectively. These findings were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed minimal, not statistically significant within-season declines in VE. Vaccination following current Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) guidelines for timing of vaccine receipt remains the best strategy for preventing influenza-associated hospitalizations in children.

Effects of baloxavir and oseltamivir antiviral therapy on the transmission of seasonal influenza in China: A mathematical modeling analysis

New antiviral influenza treatments can effectively alleviate illness while reducing viral shedding. However, how such effects can translate into lower population infections of seasonal influenza in China remains unknown. To shed light on the public health impacts of novel antiviral agents for influenza, we constructed a dynamic transmission model to simulate the seasonal influenza epidemics in China. Two antivirus treatments, baloxavir and oseltamivir, were evaluated by estimating their impacts on the incidences of influenza infection in a single flu season. In the base-case analysis of a 10% antiviral treatment uptake rate, 2760 and 3420 per 10 000 persons contracted influenza under the treatment of baloxavir and oseltamivir, respectively. These incidence rates amounted to an 18.90% relative risk reduction (RRR) of infection associated with baloxavir in relation to oseltamivir. The corresponding RRR was 82.16% when the antiviral treatment uptake rate was increased to 35%. In addition, the peak of the prevalence of infected individuals per 10 000 persons under the baloxavir treatment was 177 (range: 93-274) fewer than that of oseltamivir. Our analyses suggest that the baloxavir treatment strategy reduces the incidence of influenza in China compared with oseltamivir in the setting of a seasonal flu epidemic. Also, increasing the uptake rate of antiviral treatment can potentially prevent millions of infections during a single flu season.

BNT162b2 Protection against the Omicron Variant in Children and Adolescents

BACKGROUND

Spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) B.1.1.529 (omicron) variant, which led to increased U.S. hospitalizations for coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), generated concern about immune evasion and the duration of protection from vaccines in children and adolescents.

METHODS

Using a case-control, test-negative design, we assessed vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 leading to hospitalization and against critical Covid-19 (i.e., leading to receipt of life support or to death). From July 1, 2021, to February 17, 2022, we enrolled case patients with Covid-19 and controls without Covid-19 at 31 hospitals in 23 states. We estimated vaccine effectiveness by comparing the odds of antecedent full vaccination (two doses of BNT162b2 messenger RNA vaccine) at least 14 days before illness among case patients and controls, according to time since vaccination for patients 12 to 18 years of age and in periods coinciding with circulation of B.1.617.2 (delta) (July 1, 2021, to December 18, 2021) and omicron (December 19, 2021, to February 17, 2022) among patients 5 to 11 and 12 to 18 years of age.

RESULTS

We enrolled 1185 case patients (1043 [88%] of whom were unvaccinated, 291 [25%] of whom received life support, and 14 of whom died) and 1627 controls. During the delta-predominant period, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization for Covid-19 among adolescents 12 to 18 years of age was 93% (95% confidence interval [CI], 89 to 95) 2 to 22 weeks after vaccination and was 92% (95% CI, 80 to 97) at 23 to 44 weeks. Among adolescents 12 to 18 years of age (median interval since vaccination, 162 days) during the omicron-predominant period, vaccine effectiveness was 40% (95% CI, 9 to 60) against hospitalization for Covid-19, 79% (95% CI, 51 to 91) against critical Covid-19, and 20% (95% CI, -25 to 49) against noncritical Covid-19. During the omicron period, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization among children 5 to 11 years of age was 68% (95% CI, 42 to 82; median interval since vaccination, 34 days).

CONCLUSIONS

BNT162b2 vaccination reduced the risk of omicron-associated hospitalization by two thirds among children 5 to 11 years of age. Although two doses provided lower protection against omicron-associated hospitalization than against delta-associated hospitalization among adolescents 12 to 18 years of age, vaccination prevented critical illness caused by either variant. (Funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).

Parental Preferences of Influenza Vaccination for Children in China: A National Survey with a Discrete Choice Experiment

The influenza vaccination coverage among children is low in China. We aimed to conduct a nationwide survey to quantify parental preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for influenza vaccination for their children. Parents with children aged six months to 18 years from six provinces in China were investigated by a discrete choice experiment regarding six influenza vaccination attributes. Mixed logit models were used to estimate the relative importance of vaccine attributes and parents’ WTP. Interaction analysis and subgroup analysis were conducted to explore preference heterogeneity. A total of 1206 parents were included in the analysis. Parents reported vaccine effectiveness as the most important vaccine attribute. The mode of vaccine administration had no significant impact on parents’ preferences. Parents aged over 30 years with higher education or income levels were more likely to prefer no influenza vaccination for their children. The largest marginal WTP (CNY 802.57) for vaccination and the largest increase in vaccine uptake (41.85%) occurred with improved vaccine effectiveness from 30% to 80%. Parents from central regions or mid-latitude areas had a relatively lower WTP than those from other regions. No significant difference in the relative importance of vaccine attributes were observed among parents from various regions of China.

Response and Duration of Serum Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies After Inactivated Vaccination Within 160 Days

Background

A vaccine against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with highly effective protection is urgently needed. The anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody response and duration after vaccination are crucial predictive indicators.

Objectives

To evaluate the response and duration for 5 subsets of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies after vaccination and their predictive value for protection.

Methods

We determined the response and duration for 5 subsets of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (neutralizing antibody, anti-RBD total antibody, anti-Spike IgG, anti-Spike IgM, and anti-Spike IgA) in 61 volunteers within 160 days after the CoronaVac vaccine. A logistic regression model was used to determine the predictors of the persistence of neutralizing antibody persistence.

Results

The seropositivity rates of neutralizing antibody, anti-RBD total antibody, anti-Spike IgG, anti-Spike IgM, and anti-Spike IgA were only 4.92%, 27.87%, 21.31%, 3.28% and 0.00%, respectively, at the end of the first dose (28 days). After the second dose, the seropositivity rates reached peaks of 95.08%, 100.00%, 100.00%, 59.02% and 31.15% in two weeks (42 days). Their decay was obvious and the seropositivity rate remained at 19.67%, 54.10%, 50.82%, 3.28% and 0.00% on day 160, respectively. The level of neutralizing antibody reached a peak of 149.40 (101.00-244.60) IU/mL two weeks after the second dose (42 days) and dropped to 14.23 (7.62-30.73) IU/mL at 160 days, with a half-life of 35.61(95% CI, 32.68 to 39.12) days. Younger participants (≤31 years) had 6.179 times more persistent neutralizing antibodies than older participants (>31 years) (P<0.05). Participants with anti-Spike IgA seropositivity had 4.314 times greater persistence of neutralizing antibodies than participants without anti-Spike IgA seroconversion (P<0.05).

Conclusions

Antibody response for the CoronaVac vaccine was intense and comprehensive with 95.08% neutralizing seropositivity rate, while decay was also obvious after 160 days. Therefore, booster doses should be considered in the vaccine strategies.

Cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in pregnant women, healthcare workers and adults >= 60 years of age in Lao People's Democratic Republic

BACKGROUND

Pregnant women, healthcare workers (HW), and adults >= 60 years have shown an increased vulnerability to seasonal influenza virus infections and/or complications. In 2012, the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) initiated a national influenza vaccination program for these target groups. A cost-effectiveness evaluation of this program was undertaken to inform program sustainability.

METHODS

We designed a decision-analytical model and collected influenza-related medical resource utilization and cost data, including indirect costs. Model inputs were obtained from medical record abstraction, interviews of patients and staff at hospitals in the national influenza sentinel surveillance system and/or from literature reviews. We compared the annual disease and economic impact of influenza illnesses in each of the target groups in Lao PDR under scenarios of no vaccination and vaccination, and then estimated the cost-effectiveness of the vaccination program. We performed sensitivity analyses to identify influential variables.

RESULTS

Overall, the vaccination of pregnant women, HWs, and adults >= 60 years could annually save 11,474 doctor visits, 1,961 days of hospitalizations, 43,027 days of work, and 1,416 life-years due to laboratory-confirmed influenza illness. After comparing the total vaccination program costs of 23.4 billion Kip, to the 18.4 billion Kip saved through vaccination, we estimated the vaccination program to incur a net cost of five billion Kip (599,391 USD) annually. The incremental cost per life-year saved (ICER) was 44 million Kip (5,295 USD) and 6.9 million Kip (825 USD) for pregnant women and adults >= 60 years, respectively. However, vaccinating HWs provided societal cost-savings, returning 2.88 Kip for every single Kip invested. Influenza vaccine effectiveness, attack rate and illness duration were the most influential variables to the model.

CONCLUSION

Providing influenza vaccination to HWs in Lao PDR is cost-saving while vaccinating pregnant women and adults >= 60 is cost-effective and highly cost-effective, respectively, per WHO standards.

Feasibility of age- and gestation-based routine universal influenza vaccines schedules for children aged 6 months - 2 years and pregnant women

BACKGROUND

Hong Kong's seasonal influenza schedule follows the World Health Organization's northern hemisphere vaccine composition recommendations but with year-round influenza activity there is the potential to implement routine age- and gestation-based schedules utilising both northern and southern hemisphere vaccines for children aged 6 months to 2 years and for pregnant women. This study assessed the potential feasibility of such schedules.

METHODS

A literature review was conducted and in-depth interviews with vaccine experts, policy makers and nurses were undertaken.

RESULTS

The following schedules were proposed and assessed for perceived feasibility: 1) a four-dose schedule in the first two years of life requiring an additional unscheduled clinic visit at 7 months; 2) a three-dose schedule excluding the 4-week booster after the first dose; 3) a two-dose schedule for pregnant women involving a dose at the booking visit and a dose with pertussis vaccine at 7 months gestation; and 4) a one-dose schedule at 7 months gestation.

CONCLUSIONS

Age- and gestation-based routine influenza vaccination schedules are theoretically feasible for both young children and pregnant women. The three-dose paediatric and one-dose obstetric schedules were assessed in interviews with vaccine experts, policy makers and nurses to be most acceptable. Further clinical studies are required to determine whether such schedules are non-inferior to current seasonal-based schedules in terms of vaccine effectiveness and vaccine uptake.

Sustained Effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna Vaccines Against COVID-19 Associated Hospitalizations Among Adults - United States, March-July 2021

Real-world evaluations have demonstrated high effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations (1-4) measured shortly after vaccination; longer follow-up is needed to assess durability of protection. In an evaluation at 21 hospitals in 18 states, the duration of mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations was assessed among adults aged ≥18 years. Among 3,089 hospitalized adults (including 1,194 COVID-19 case-patients and 1,895 non-COVID-19 control-patients), the median age was 59 years, 48.7% were female, and 21.1% had an immunocompromising condition. Overall, 141 (11.8%) case-patients and 988 (52.1%) controls were fully vaccinated (defined as receipt of the second dose of Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines ≥14 days before illness onset), with a median interval of 65 days (range = 14-166 days) after receipt of second dose. VE against COVID-19-associated hospitalization during the full surveillance period was 86% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 82%-88%) overall and 90% (95% CI = 87%-92%) among adults without immunocompromising conditions. VE against COVID-19- associated hospitalization was 86% (95% CI = 82%-90%) 2-12 weeks and 84% (95% CI = 77%-90%) 13-24 weeks from receipt of the second vaccine dose, with no significant change between these periods (p = 0.854). Whole genome sequencing of 454 case-patient specimens found that 242 (53.3%) belonged to the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) lineage and 74 (16.3%) to the B.1.617.2 (Delta) lineage. Effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against COVID-19-associated hospitalization was sustained over a 24-week period, including among groups at higher risk for severe COVID-19; ongoing monitoring is needed as new SARS-CoV-2 variants emerge. To reduce their risk for hospitalization, all eligible persons should be offered COVID-19 vaccination.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza-associated hospitalization in children in Hong Kong, 2010-2020

BACKGROUND

Influenza virus infections can cause hospitalizations in children, and annual vaccination of children can provide protection against influenza.

METHODS

We analyzed a test-negative design study with data spanning from 2010/11 through 2019/20 to evaluate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against influenza hospitalization in children by age group, influenza type/subtype and time period within each season. We enrolled children admitted to hospital with acute febrile respiratory illnesses. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were tested by culture and/or RT-PCR to determine influenza status, and vaccination status was obtained by interviewing parents or legal guardians and was verified where possible. VE was estimated by conditional logistic regression model adjusting for sex, age and age-squared, matching on week.

RESULTS

Influenza seasons in Hong Kong are prolonged with influenza-associated hospitalizations occurring in almost every month of the year during the study period. Influenza vaccination was effective in preventing influenza-associated hospitalizations in children of all ages. Influenza VE was higher in younger children than in older children, and higher against hospitalization due to influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 than A(H3N2) and B.

CONCLUSIONS

The childhood influenza vaccination program in Hong Kong has prevented influenza-associated hospitalizations particularly in younger children. Our findings support the use of influenza vaccines in children as an effective approach to influenza control and prevention.

Vaccine Effectiveness Against Influenza Hospitalization Among Children in the United States, 2015-2016

BACKGROUND

Annual United States (US) estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in children typically measure protection against outpatient medically attended influenza illness, with limited data evaluating VE against influenza hospitalizations. We estimated VE for preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization among US children.

METHODS

We included children aged 6 months-17 years with acute respiratory illness enrolled in the New Vaccine Surveillance Network during the 2015-2016 influenza season. Documented influenza vaccination status was obtained from state immunization information systems, the electronic medical record, and/or provider records. Midturbinate nasal and throat swabs were tested for influenza using molecular assays. We estimated VE as 100% × (1 - odds ratio), comparing the odds of vaccination among subjects testing influenza positive with subjects testing negative, using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 1653 participants, 36 of 707 (5%) of those fully vaccinated, 18 of 226 (8%) of those partially vaccinated, and 85 of 720 (12%) of unvaccinated children tested positive for influenza. Of those vaccinated, almost 90% were documented to have received inactivated vaccine. The majority (81%) of influenza cases were in children ≤ 8 years of age. Of the 139 influenza-positive cases, 42% were A(H1N1)pdm09, 42% were B viruses, and 14% were A(H3N2). Overall, adjusted VE for fully vaccinated children was 56% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34%-71%) against any influenza-associated hospitalization, 68% (95% CI, 36%-84%) for A(H1N1)pdm09, and 44% (95% CI, -1% to 69%) for B viruses.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings demonstrate the importance of annual influenza vaccination in prevention of severe influenza disease and of reducing the number of children who remain unvaccinated or partially vaccinated against influenza.

Understanding the Impact of Resistance to Influenza Antivirals

Influenza poses a significant burden on society and health care systems. Although antivirals are an integral tool in effective influenza management, the potential for the emergence of antiviral-resistant viruses can lead to uncertainty and hesitation among front-line prescribers and policy makers. Here, we provide an overview of influenza antiviral resistance in context, exploring the key concepts underlying its development and clinical impact. Due to the acute nature of influenza in immunocompetent patients, resistant viruses that develop during antiviral treatment of a single patient ("treatment-emergent resistance") are usually cleared in a relatively short time, with no impact on future antiviral efficacy. In addition, although available data are limited by small numbers of patients, they show that antiviral treatment still provides clinical benefit to the patient within whom resistance emerges. In contrast, the sustained community transmission of resistant variants in the absence of treatment ("acquired resistance") is of greater concern and can potentially render front-line antivirals ineffective. Importantly, however, resistant viruses are usually associated with reduced fitness such that their widespread transmission is relatively rare. Influenza antivirals are an essential part of effective influenza management due to their ability to reduce the risk of complications and death in infected patients. Although antiviral resistance should be taken seriously and requires continuous careful monitoring, it is not comparable to antibiotic resistance in bacteria, which can become permanent and widespread, with far-reaching medical consequences. The benefits of antiviral treatment far outweigh concerns of potential resistance, which in the vast majority of cases does not have a significant clinical impact.

Modelling the impact of universal influenza vaccines on seasonal influenza with different subtypes

Several candidates of universal influenza vaccine (UIV) have entered phase III clinical trials, which are expected to improve the willingness and coverage of the population substantially. The impact of UIV on the seasonal influenza epidemic in low influenza vaccination coverage regions like China remains unclear. We proposed a new compartmental model involving the transmission of different influenza subtypes to evaluate the effects of UIV. We calibrated the model by weekly surveillance data of influenza in Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, China, during 2010/11–2018/19 influenza seasons. We calculated the percentage of averted infections under 2-month (September to October) and 6-month (September to the next February) vaccination patterns with varied UIV effectiveness and coverage in each influenza season, compared with no UIV scenario. A total of 195 766 influenza-like illness (ILI) cases were reported during the nine influenza seasons (2010/11–2018/19), of which the highest ILI cases were among age group 0–4 (59.60%) years old, followed by 5–14 (25.22%), 25–59 (8.19%), 15–24 (3.75%) and ⩾60 (3.37%) years old. The influenza-positive rate for all age groups among ILI cases was 17.51%, which is highest among 5–14 (23.75%) age group and followed by 25–59 (16.44%), 15–24 (16.42%), 0–4 (14.66%) and ⩾60 (13.98%) age groups, respectively. Our model showed that UIV might greatly avert influenza infections irrespective of subtypes in each influenza season. For example, in the 2018/19 influenza season, 2-month vaccination pattern with low UIV effectiveness (50%) and coverage (10%), and high UIV effectiveness (75%) and coverage (30%) could avert 41.6% (95% CI 27.8–55.4%) and 83.4% (80.9–85.9%) of influenza infections, respectively; 6-month vaccination pattern with low and high UIV effectiveness and coverage could avert 32.0% (15.9–48.2%) and 74.2% (69.7–78.7%) of influenza infections, respectively. It would need 11.4% (7.9–15.0%) of coverage to reduce half of the influenza infections for 2-month vaccination pattern with low UIV effectiveness and 8.5% (5.0–11.2%) of coverage with high UIV effectiveness, while it would need 15.5% (8.9–20.7%) of coverage for 6-month vaccination pattern with low UIV effectiveness and 11.2% (6.5–15.0%) of coverage with high UIV effectiveness. We conclude that UIV could significantly reduce the influenza infections even for low UIV effectiveness and coverage. The 2-month vaccination pattern could avert more influenza infections than the 6-month vaccination pattern irrespective of influenza subtype and UIV effectiveness and coverage.

Influenza and COVID-19: What does co-existence mean?

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 continues to have a major impact on healthcare and social systems throughout the world. As the clinical and epidemiological features of COVID-19 have many parallels with influenza, it is important to ensure optimal management of both respiratory diseases as we anticipate their continued co-circulation. In particular, there is a need to ensure that effective surveillance and diagnostic capacities are in place to monitor these and other respiratory viruses, as this will underpin decisions on the appropriate clinical management of the respective diseases. As such, we propose a series of key recommendations for stakeholders, public health authorities, primary care physicians and surveillance bodies that will help mitigate the combined risks of concurrent influenza epidemics and the COVID-19 pandemic. We advocate the judicious use of influenza vaccines and antivirals, particularly among groups at high risk of complications, with healthcare workers also considered a priority for vaccination. It is likely that the increased use of emerging technologies such as telemedicine and contact tracing will permanently change our approach to managing infectious disease. The use of these technologies, alongside existing pharmaceutical strategies, will ensure that we achieve a holistic approach to the global public health measures needed to deal with the combined threat of influenza and COVID-19. Ensuring that this approach is optimal will be key as we move from a reactive pandemic response towards preparing for the long-term management of the remarkable clinical burden associated with these respiratory pathogens.

Early season estimate of influenza vaccination effectiveness against influenza hospitalisation in children, Hong Kong, winter influenza season 2018/19

The winter 2018/19 influenza season in Hong Kong has been predominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 as at January 2019. We enrolled 2,016 children in three public hospitals in Hong Kong between 2 September 2018 and 11 January 2019. Using the test-negative approach, we estimated high early season effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccine against influenza A or B of 90% (95% confidence interval (CI): 80–95%) and 92% (95% CI: 82–96%) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09.

Dynamic interactions of influenza viruses in Hong Kong during 1998-2018

Influenza epidemics cause substantial morbidity and mortality every year worldwide. Currently, two influenza A subtypes, A(H1N1) and A(H3N2), and type B viruses co-circulate in humans and infection with one type/subtype could provide cross-protection against the others. However, it remains unclear how such ecologic competition via cross-immunity and antigenic mutations that allow immune escape impact influenza epidemic dynamics at the population level. Here we develop a comprehensive model-inference system and apply it to study the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of the three influenza types/subtypes in Hong Kong, a city of global public health significance for influenza epidemic and pandemic control. Utilizing long-term influenza surveillance data since 1998, we are able to estimate the strength of cross-immunity between each virus-pairs, the timing and frequency of punctuated changes in population immunity in response to antigenic mutations in influenza viruses, and key epidemiological parameters over the last 20 years including the 2009 pandemic. We find evidence of cross-immunity in all types/subtypes, with strongest cross-immunity from A(H1N1) against A(H3N2). Our results also suggest that A(H3N2) may undergo antigenic mutations in both summers and winters and thus monitoring the virus in both seasons may be important for vaccine development. Overall, our study reveals intricate epidemiological interactions and underscores the importance of simultaneous monitoring of population immunity, incidence rates, and viral genetic and antigenic changes.

Effectiveness and Parental Acceptability of Social Networking Interventions for Promoting Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Among Young Children: Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza vaccination (SIV) coverage among young children remains low worldwide. Mobile social networking apps such as WhatsApp Messenger are promising tools for health interventions.

OBJECTIVE

This was a preliminary study to test the effectiveness and parental acceptability of a social networking intervention that sends weekly vaccination reminders and encourages exchange of SIV-related views and experiences among mothers via WhatsApp discussion groups for promoting childhood SIV. The second objective was to examine the effect of introducing time pressure on mothers' decision making for childhood SIV for vaccination decision making. This was done using countdowns of the recommended vaccination timing.

METHODS

Mothers of child(ren) aged 6 to 72 months were randomly allocated to control or to one of two social networking intervention groups receiving vaccination reminders with (SNI+TP) or without (SNI-TP) a time pressure component via WhatsApp discussion groups at a ratio of 5:2:2. All participants first completed a baseline assessment. Both the SNI-TP and SNI+TP groups subsequently received weekly vaccination reminders from October to December 2017 and participated in WhatsApp discussions about SIV moderated by a health professional. All participants completed a follow-up assessment from April to May 2018.

RESULTS

A total of 84.9% (174/205), 71% (57/80), and 75% (60/80) who were allocated to the control, SNI-TP, and SNI+TP groups, respectively, completed the outcome assessment. The social networking intervention significantly promoted mothers' self-efficacy for taking children for SIV (SNI-TP: odds ratio [OR] 2.69 [1.07-6.79]; SNI+TP: OR 2.50 [1.13-5.55]), but did not result in significantly improved children's SIV uptake. Moreover, after adjusting for mothers' working status, introducing additional time pressure reduced the overall SIV uptake in children of working mothers (OR 0.27 [0.10-0.77]) but significantly increased the SIV uptake among children of mothers without a full-time job (OR 6.53 [1.87-22.82]). Most participants' WhatsApp posts were about sharing experience or views (226/434, 52.1%) of which 44.7% (101/226) were categorized as negative, such as their concerns over vaccine safety, side effects and effectiveness. Although participants shared predominantly negative experience or views about SIV at the beginning of the discussion, the moderator was able to encourage the discussion of more positive experience or views and more knowledge and information. Most intervention group participants indicated willingness to receive the same interventions (110/117, 94.0%) and recommend the interventions to other mothers (102/117, 87.2%) in future.

CONCLUSIONS

Online information support can effectively promote mothers' self-efficacy for taking children for SIV but alone it may not sufficient to address maternal concerns over SIV to achieve a positive vaccination decision. However, the active involvement of health professionals in online discussions can shape positive discussions about vaccination. Time pressure on decision making interacts with maternal work status, facilitating vaccination uptake among mothers who may have more free time, but having the opposite effect among busier working mothers.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Hong Kong University Clinical Trials Registry HKUCTR-2250; https://tinyurl.com/vejv276.

Predicting Seasonal Influenza Based on SARIMA Model, in Mainland China from 2005 to 2018

Seasonal influenza is one of the mandatorily monitored infectious diseases, in China. Making full use of the influenza surveillance data helps to predict seasonal influenza. In this study, a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used to predict the influenza changes by analyzing monthly data of influenza incidence from January 2005 to December 2018, in China. The inter-annual incidence rate fluctuated from 2.76 to 55.07 per 100,000 individuals. The SARIMA (1, 0, 0) × (0, 1, 1) 12 model predicted that the influenza incidence in 2018 was similar to that of previous years, and it fitted the seasonal fluctuation. The relative errors between actual values and predicted values fluctuated from 0.0010 to 0.0137, which indicated that the predicted values matched the actual values well. This study demonstrated that the SARIMA model could effectively make short-term predictions of seasonal influenza.

Effectiveness of Partial and Full Influenza Vaccination Among Children Aged <9 Years in Hong Kong, 2011-2019

BACKGROUND

Two doses of influenza vaccination are recommended for previously unvaccinated children aged <9 years, and receipt of 1 dose is sometimes termed "partial vaccination." We assessed the effectiveness of partial and full influenza vaccination in preventing influenza-associated hospitalization among children in Hong Kong.

METHODS

Using the test-negative design we enrolled 23 187 children aged <9 years admitted to hospitals with acute respiratory illness from September 2011 through March 2019. Vaccination and influenza status were recorded. Fully vaccinated children included those vaccinated with 2 doses or, if previously vaccinated, those vaccinated with 1 dose. Partially vaccinated children included those who should have received 2 doses but only received 1 dose. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) by using conditional logistic regression models matched on epidemiological week.

RESULTS

Overall VE estimates among fully and partially vaccinated children were 73% (95% confidence interval, 69%-77%) and 31% (95% confidence interval, 8%-48%), respectively. A consistently higher VE was observed in children fully vaccinated against each influenza virus type/subtype. The effectiveness of partial vaccination did not vary by age group.

CONCLUSIONS

Partial vaccination was significantly less effective than full vaccination. Our study supports the current recommendation of 2 doses of influenza vaccination in previously unvaccinated children <9 years of age.

Intense interseasonal influenza outbreaks, Australia, 2018/19

BackgroundInterseasonal influenza outbreaks are not unusual in countries with temperate climates and well-defined influenza seasons. Usually, these are small and diminish before the main influenza season begins. However, the 2018/19 summer-autumn interseasonal influenza period in Australia saw unprecedented large and widespread influenza outbreaks.AimOur objective was to determine the extent of the intense 2018/19 interseasonal influenza outbreaks in Australia epidemiologically and examine the genetic, antigenic and structural properties of the viruses responsible for these outbreaks.MethodsThis observational study combined the epidemiological and virological surveillance data obtained from the Australian Government Department of Health, the New South Wales Ministry of Health, sentinel outpatient surveillance, public health laboratories and data generated by the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne and the Singapore Agency for Science, Technology and Research.ResultsThere was a record number of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases during the interseasonal period November 2018 to May 2019 (n= 85,286; 5 times the previous 3-year average) and also more institutional outbreaks, hospitalisations and deaths, than what is normally seen.ConclusionsThe unusually large interseasonal influenza outbreaks in 2018/19 followed a mild 2018 influenza season and resulted in a very early start to the 2019 influenza season across Australia. The reasons for this unusual event have yet to be fully elucidated but are likely to be a complex mix of climatic, virological and host immunity-related factors. These outbreaks reinforce the need for year-round surveillance of influenza, even in temperate climates with strong seasonality patterns.

Understanding the complex seasonality of seasonal influenza A and B virus transmission: Evidence from six years of surveillance data in Shanghai, China

OBJECTIVES

Understanding the complexity of influenza subtype seasonality is critical to promoting a suitable vaccination program. The aim of this study was to identify and compare the seasonality and epidemiological features of seasonal influenza subtypes after the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic and to lay a foundation for further investigation into the social and environmental factors affecting seasonal influenza virus transmission.

METHODS

Influenza-like illness (ILI) case surveillance was conducted in two sentinel hospitals in Pudong New Area, Shanghai between 2012 and 2018. Weekly data on ILI cases were analyzed. A time-series seasonal decomposition analysis was used to reveal the seasonality of influenza and epidemiological features among different subtypes.

RESULTS

In total, 10977 ILI patients were enrolled of whom 2385 (21.7%) had laboratory-confirmed influenza. Compared to influenza A (16.3%), influenza B (5.4%) was less frequently detected among the ILI patients (p<0.001). Semiannual epidemic peaks were identified in four of the years during the 6-year study period, while only one annual epidemic peak was found in the other two years. An epidemic peak occurred in each winter season, and a secondary peak also occasionally occurred in summer or spring. A/H3N2 predominated in both summer and winter, while A/H1N1, B/Yamagata, and B/Victoria circulated almost exclusively in winter or spring. Two lineages of influenza B seemed to predominate in alternating years.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the complexity of seasonal influenza virus activity in a subtropical region of China, presenting both semiannual and annual epidemic peaks in different years. The results of this study may provide further insight into possible improvements in the timing of influenza vaccination in Shanghai, China.