Cancer incidence and mortality in Australia from 2020 to 2044 and an exploratory analysis of the potential effect of treatment delays during the COVID-19 pandemic: a statistical modelling study

Decreasing incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Hungary between 2011 and 2021 revealed by robust estimates reconciling multiple data sources

Objective

Hungary has repeatedly been shown to have the highest cancer-related mortality and incidence in Europe. Despite lung cancer being the most abundant malignant diagnosis in Hungary, numerous concerns have been raised recently regarding the bias inherent to reported incidence estimates. Re-analysis of reimbursement claims has been suggested previously by our group as an alternative approach, offering revised figures of lung cancer incidence between 2011 and 2016. Leveraging on this methodology, we aimed at updating Hungarian lung cancer incidence estimates with an additional 5 years (2017-2021), including years affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, we also attempted to improve the robustness of estimates by taking additional characteristics of the patient pathway into account.

Methods

Lung cancer patients between 2011 and 2021 were identified based on reimbursement-associated ICD-10 codes, histology codes and time patterns. Multiple query architectures were tested for sensitivity and compared to official estimates of the Hungarian National Cancer Registry (HNCR). Epidemiological trends were estimated by Poisson-regression, corrected for age and sex.

Results

A total of 89,948 lung cancer patients diagnosed in Hungary between 2011 and 2021 have been identified by our study. In 2019 alone, 7,887 patients were diagnosed according to our optimized query. ESP2013 standardized rate was estimated between 92.5/100,000 (2011) and 78.4/100,000 (2019). In 2019, standardized incidence was 106.8/100,000 for men and 59.7/100,000 for women. Up until the COVID-19 pandemic, lung cancer incidence was decreasing by 3.18% (2.1%-4.3%) yearly in men, while there was no significant decrease in women. Young age groups (40-49 and 50-59) featured the largest improvement, but women aged 60-79 are at an increasing risk for developing lung cancer. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a statistically significant decrease in lung cancer incidence, especially in the 50-59 age group (both sexes).

Conclusion

Our results show that using an optimized approach, re-analysis of reimbursement claims yields robust estimates of lung cancer incidence. According to this approach, the incidence rate of male lung cancer is declining in Hungary, in concordance with the trend observed for lung cancer mortality. Among women aged 60-79, the incidence of lung cancer has risen, requiring more attention in the near future.

The effect of COVID-19 on cancer incidences in the U.S

Fundamental data analysis assists in the evaluation of critical questions to discern essential facts and elicit formerly invisible evidence. In this article, we provide clarity into a subtle phenomenon observed in cancer incidences throughout the time of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed the cancer incidence data from the American Cancer Society [1]. We partitioned the data into three groups: the pre-COVID-19 years (2017, 2018), during the COVID-19 years (2019, 2020, 2021), and the post-COVID-19 years (2022, 2023). In a novel manner, we applied principal components analysis (PCA), computed the angles between the cancer incidence vectors, and then added lognormal probability concepts in our analysis. Our analytic results revealed that the cancer incidences shifted within each era (pre, during, and post), with a meaningful change in the cancer incidences occurring in 2020, the peak of the COVID-19 era. We defined, computed, and interpreted the exceedance probability for a cancer type to have 1000 incidences in a future year among the breast, cervical, colorectal, uterine corpus, leukemia, lung & bronchus, melanoma, Hodgkin's lymphoma, prostate, and urinary cancers. We also defined, estimated, and illustrated indices for other cancer diagnoses from the vantage point of breast cancer in pre, during, and post-COVID-19 eras. The angle vectors post the COVID-19 were 72% less than pre-pandemic and 28% less than during the pandemic. The movement of cancer vectors was dynamic between these eras, and movement greatly differed by type of cancer. A trend chart of cervical cancer showed statistical anomalies in the years 2019 and 2021. Based on our findings, a few future research directions are pointed out.

COVID-related disruptions to colorectal cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment could increase cancer Burden in Australia and Canada: A modelling study

COVID-19 disrupted cancer control worldwide, impacting preventative screening, diagnoses, and treatment services. This modelling study estimates the impact of disruptions on colorectal cancer cases and deaths in Canada and Australia, informed by data on screening, diagnosis, and treatment procedures. Modelling was used to estimate short- and long-term effects on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality, including ongoing impact of patient backlogs. A hypothetical mitigation strategy was simulated, with diagnostic and treatment capacities increased by 5% from 2022 to address backlogs. Colorectal cancer screening dropped by 40% in Canada and 6.3% in Australia in 2020. Significant decreases to diagnostic and treatment procedures were also observed in Australia and Canada, which were estimated to lead to additional patient wait times. These changes would lead to an estimated increase of 255 colorectal cancer cases and 1,820 colorectal cancer deaths in Canada and 234 cases and 1,186 deaths in Australia over 2020-2030; a 1.9% and 2.4% increase in mortality, respectively, vs a scenario with no screening disruption or diagnostic/treatment delays. Diagnostic and treatment capacity mitigation would avert 789 and 350 deaths in Canada and Australia, respectively. COVID-related disruptions had a significant impact on colorectal cancer screening, diagnostic, and treatment procedures in Canada and Australia. Modelling demonstrates that downstream effects on disease burden could be substantial. However, backlogs can be managed and deaths averted with even small increases to diagnostic and treatment capacity. Careful management of resources can improve patient outcomes after any temporary disruption, and these results can inform targeted approaches early detection of cancers.

Disparate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delays in colorectal cancer treatment: A National Cancer Database study

BACKGROUND

Timely treatment for patients with colorectal cancer may have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the impact of the pandemic on delays to treatment with surgery or systemic therapy for patients with colorectal cancer and delineated factors predictive of delayed treatment.

METHODS

Using the National Cancer Database, patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer were categorized by year of diagnosis as COVID-19 era (2020) versus pre-COVID-19 (2018-2019). Categorical variables were compared by χ2 analysis. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess odds ratios for delayed time to surgery or chemoimmunotherapy, defined as >60 days.

RESULTS

In total, 50,689 patients colorectal cancer were diagnosed patients who were pre-COVID-19 vs 21,331 within the COVID-19-era. Patients diagnosed with COVID-19 had a higher stage at diagnosis. There were no differences in the proportion of delayed time to surgery for patients diagnosed in 2020, but patients who were tested for COVID-19 had increased proportions of delayed time to surgery (P < .0001). In multivariate analysis, Black race (P = .0026) and uninsured/underinsured status (P = .0017) were associated with delayed time to surgery. Diagnosis during COVID-19 did not increase delayed time to chemoimmunotherapy, regardless of COVID-19 testing or positivity; however, delays were seen for Black (P < .0001), Hispanic (P < .0001), and uninsured/underinsured patients (P < .0001).

CONCLUSION

Although the pandemic did not delay treatment for colorectal cancer overall, vulnerable and underserved populations were disproportionately affected by delays to all forms of therapy. The difference in colorectal cancer outcomes in the coming years as a result of delays in treatment may be significant for these patients.

Diffuse large B cell lymphoma characteristics and outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic in two tertiary centers - an Israeli/ Italian study

The COVID-19 pandemic posed a major challenge in cancer care worldwide which might have an impact on the management of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We conducted a retrospective study comparing characteristics, management, and outcomes of DLBCL patients diagnosed during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic (1/3/2020-28/2/2021) to those diagnosed in the previous year (1/3/2019-28/2/2020) in two tertiary centers in Italy and Israel. 182 patients were diagnosed with DLBCL during the study period. More patients were diagnosed during the pandemic compared to the year before: 60 vs. 29 and 54 vs. 39 in Italy and in Israel, respectively. Trends towards older age and higher transformation rates were shown during the pandemic. The interval between the initiation of symptoms and diagnosis was longer during the pandemic. Five and four patients were diagnosed with COVID-19 during treatment in Italy and in Israel, respectively. there was no difference in dose density and intensity of treatment, before and during the pandemic. The median follow-up during and before the pandemic was 15.2 and 25.5 months, respectively. Progression-free survival (PFS) was slightly shorter during the pandemic compared to the year before (64.9% vs. 70.6%; p = 0.0499). In multivariate analysis, older age and transformed disease were independently related to PFS, while diagnosis of DLBCL during the pandemic was not. Despite the challenges caused by COVID-19 pandemic, the management of DLBCL patients remained unchanged including dose density and intensity. Nevertheless, a shorter PFS during the outbreak might be attributed to differences in patients' characteristics.

Trends and projections of cause-specific premature mortality in Australia to 2044: a statistical modelling study

Background

Long-term projections of premature mortality (defined as deaths age <75 years) help to inform decisions about public health priorities. This study aimed to project premature mortality rates in Australia to 2044, and to estimate numbers of deaths and potential years of life lost (PYLL) due to premature mortality overall and for 59 causes.

Methods

We examined the past trends in premature mortality rates using Australian mortality data by sex, 5-year age group and 5-year calendar period up to 2019. Cigarette smoking exposure data (1945-2019) were included to project lung cancer mortality. Age-period-cohort or generalised linear models were developed and validated for each cause to project premature mortality rates to 2044.

Findings

Over the 25-year period from 1990-1994 to 2015-2019, there was a 44.4% decrease in the overall age-standardised premature mortality rate. This decline is expected to continue, from 162.4 deaths/100,000 population in 2015-2019 to 141.7/100,000 in 2040-2044 (12.7% decrease). Despite declining rates, total numbers of premature deaths are projected to increase by 22.8%, rising from 272,815 deaths in 2015-2019 to 334,894 deaths in 2040-2044. This is expected to result in 1.58 million premature deaths over the 25-year period 2020-2044, accounting for 24.5 million PYLL. Of the high-level cause categories, cancer is projected to remain the most common cause of premature death in Australia by 2044, followed by cardiovascular disease, external causes (including injury, poisoning, and suicide), and respiratory diseases.

Interpretation

Despite continuously declining overall premature mortality rates, the total number of premature deaths in Australia is projected to remain substantial, and cancer will continue to be the leading cause. These projections can inform the targeting of public health efforts and can serve as benchmarks against which to measure the impact of future interventions. They emphasise the ongoing importance of accelerating the prevention, early detection, and treatment of key health conditions.

Funding

No funding was provided for this study.

Impact of COVID-19 on risks and deaths of non-communicable diseases in the Western Pacific region

Countries and areas in the Western Pacific region (WPR) experienced the COVID-19 pandemic and took various preventive measures, which affected non-communicable diseases (NCDs) risks and mortality. Due to differences in COVID-19 prevention measures and other characteristics such as culture, religions, political systems, socioeconomic development, lifestyles, and health care systems, the effects of COVID-19 on NCDs varied greatly among WPR countries. Most countries had an increased all-cause and NCDs mortality during the pandemic, but some developed countries, including New Zealand, Singapore and Australia reported decreased mortality. The pandemic and the preventive measures increased NCD risk factors including unhealthy diet, lack of physical activity and sleep disorders. The effects varied by socioeconomic status and health conditions. COVID-19 related stress, food shortages, and confined lifestyle had immediate detrimental effects on NCDs, and also affected pregnancy outcomes with long-term effects on NCDs risks in coming years.

Encapsulated Rose Bengal Enhances the Photodynamic Treatment of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Cells

Among breast cancer subtypes, triple-negative breast cancer stands out as the most aggressive, with patients facing a 40% mortality rate within the initial five years. The limited treatment options and unfavourable prognosis for triple-negative patients necessitate the development of novel therapeutic strategies. Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is an alternative treatment that can effectively target triple-negative neoplastic cells such as MDA-MB-231. In this in vitro study, we conducted a comparative analysis of the PDT killing rate of unbound Rose Bengal (RB) in solution versus RB-encapsulated chitosan nanoparticles to determine the most effective approach for inducing cytotoxicity at low laser powers (90 mW, 50 mW, 25 mW and 10 mW) and RB concentrations (50 µg/mL, 25 µg/mL, 10 µg/mL and 5 µg/mL). Intracellular singlet oxygen production and cell uptake were also determined for both treatment modalities. Dark toxicity was also assessed for normal breast cells. Despite the low laser power and concentration of nanoparticles (10 mW and 5 µg/mL), MDA-MB-231 cells experienced a substantial reduction in viability (8 ± 1%) compared to those treated with RB solution (38 ± 10%). RB nanoparticles demonstrated higher singlet oxygen production and greater uptake by cancer cells than RB solutions. Moreover, RB nanoparticles display strong cytocompatibility with normal breast cells (MCF-10A). The low activation threshold may be a crucial advantage for specifically targeting malignant cells in deep tissues.

US Cancer Detection Decreased Nearly 9 Percent During The First Year Of The COVID-19 Pandemic

We investigated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer detection, using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, which recently released data through the first year of the pandemic (2020). Across all cancer sites, cancer incidence fell by 8.7 percent. The most common cancers that experienced the largest disruptions were lung and bronchus, melanoma of the skin, and thyroid cancer.

Trends and Projection of the Incidence of Active Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Southwestern China: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

The control of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is critical for achieving the vision of World Health Organization's End TB goal.

OBJECTIVE

This study analyzes the temporal trends in PTB incidence associated with age, period, and birth cohorts from 2006 to 2020 in Yunnan, China; projects the PTB burden till 2030; and explores the drivers of PTB incidence.

METHODS

The aggregated PTB incidence rates between 2005 and 2020 were obtained from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System. We used the age-period-cohort model to evaluate the age, period, and cohort effects on PTB incidence. We applied the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to project future PTB incidence from 2021 to 2030. We applied the decomposition algorithm to attribute the incidence trends to population aging, population growth, and age-specific changes from 2006 to 2030.

RESULTS

From 2006 to 2020, the PTB incidence in Yunnan was relatively stable, although the absolute number showed an increase. The net drift was -1.56% (95% CI -2.41% to -0.70%). An M-shaped bimodal local drift and a longitudinal age curve were observed. The overall local drift was below zero for most age groups except for the age groups of 15-19 years (2.37%, 95% CI -0.28% to 5.09%) and 50-54 years (0.41%, 95% CI -1.78% to 2.64%). The highest risk of PTB incidence was observed in the age group of 65-69 years, and another peak was observed in the age group of 20-24 years. Downward trends were observed for both period and cohort effects, but the cohort effect trends were uneven. A higher risk was observed for the birth cohorts of 1961-1970 (rate ratio [RR]1961-1965=1.10, 95% CI 0.88-1.38; RR1966-1970=1.11, 95% CI 0.92-1.37) and 2001-2010 (RR2001-2005=0.92, 95% CI 0.63-1.34; RR2006-2010=0.84, 95% CI 0.45-1.58) than for the adjacent cohorts. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model projected that PTB incidence will continually increase from 2021 to 2030 and that PTB incidence in 2030 will be 2.28 times higher than that in 2006. The age-specific change was the leading cause for the growing PTB disease burden.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there are several levels and measures for PTB control, the disease burden is likely to increase in the future. To bridge the gap of TB-free vision, our study suggests that public health policies be put in place soon, including large-scale active case-finding, priority prevention policies for high-risk older adult and young adult populations, and reduction of possible grandparent-grandchildren transmission patterns.

Rates of newly diagnosed breast cancer at commission on cancer facilities during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this study was to examine the impact of the early part of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of newly diagnosed breast cancer cases at Commission on Cancer (CoC)-accredited facilities relative to the United States (U.S.) population.

METHODS

We examined the incidence of breast cancer cases at CoC sites using the U.S. Census population as the denominator. Breast cancer incidence was stratified by patient age, race and ethnicity, and geographic location.

RESULTS

A total of 1,499,806 patients with breast cancer were included. For females, breast cancer cases per 100,000 individuals went from 188 in 2015 to 203 in 2019 and then dropped to 176 in 2020 with a 15.7% decrease from 2019 to 2020. Breast cancer cases per 100,000 males went from 1.7 in 2015 to 1.8 in 2019 and then declined to 1.5 in 2020 with a 21.8% decrease from 2019 to 2020. For both females and males, cases per 100,000 individuals decreased from 2019 to 2020 for almost all age groups. For females, rates dropped from 2019 to 2020 for all races and ethnicities and geographic locations. The largest percent change was seen among Hispanic patients (-18.4%) and patients in the Middle Atlantic division (-18.6%). The stage distribution (0-IV) for female and male patients remained stable from 2018 to 2020.

CONCLUSION

The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a decreased number of newly diagnosed breast cancer cases at Commission on Cancer sites.

Decrease in the number of new cancer diagnoses during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic - cohort study of 3.5 million individuals in western Poland

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has considerably affected healthcare systems worldwide and is expected to influence cancer incidence, mortality, stage at diagnosis, and survival. This study aimed to assess COVID-19-related changes in cancer incidence observed in 2020 in the Greater Poland region.

Materials and methods

Data from the Greater Poland Cancer Registry on cancer patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2020 were analysed. To quantify the change in the number of incident cancer cases during the COVID-19 pandemic, we calculated the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and the incidence rate difference (IRD) to assume the pandemic-attributable gap in cancer incidence.

Results

In 2020, in Greater Poland, the expected number of new cancer cases was 18 154 (9 226 among males and 8 927 among females), while the observed number was 14 770 (7 336 among males and 7 434 among females). The registered number of cancer cases decreased in 2020 by 20% (SIR 0·80, 95% CI 0·78 to 0·81) and 17% (SIR 0·83, 95% CI 0·81 to 0·85) in males and females, respectively. Among men, the most significant difference was reported for myeloma (SIR 0·59, 95% CI 0·45 to 0·77), among women for bone cancer (SIR 0·47, 95% CI 0·20 to 0·93). In females the observed incidence was higher than expected for cancer of an unspecified site (SIR 1·19, 95% CI 1·01 to 1·38). In our study, the decrease in new cancer cases was greater in males than in females.

Discussion

The observed incidence was affected in most cancer sites, with the most significant deviation from the expected number in the case of myeloma. An increase in the observed incidence was reported only in women diagnosed with cancer of an unspecified site, which might reflect shortages in access to oncological diagnostics.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Incidence and Observed Survival of Malignant Brain Tumors in Belgium

(1) Background: This study evaluates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence, treatment, and survival of adults diagnosed with malignant brain tumors in Belgium in 2020. (2) Methods: We examined patients aged 20 and older with malignant brain tumors (2004-2020) from the Belgian Cancer Registry database, assessing incidence, WHO performance status, vital status, and treatment data. We compared 2020 incidence rates with projected rates and age-standardized rates to 2015-2019. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess observed survival (OS). (3) Results: In 2020, there was an 8% drop in age-specific incidence rates, particularly for those over 50. Incidence rates plunged by 37% in April 2020 during the first COVID-19 peak but partially recovered by July. For all malignant brain tumors together, the two-year OS decreased by four percentage points (p.p.) in 2020 and three p.p. in 2019, compared to that in 2015-2018. Fewer patients (-9 p.p.) with glioblastoma underwent surgery, and the proportion of patients not receiving surgery, radiotherapy, or systemic therapy increased by six percentage points in 2020. (4) Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly impacted the diagnosis, treatment strategies, and survival of brain tumor patients in Belgium during 2020. These findings should guide policymakers in future outbreak responses, emphasizing the need to maintain or adapt (neuro)-oncological care pathways and promote informed decision making when care capacity is limited.

Cancer Prevalence Projections in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020-2050: A Statistical Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

We provide comprehensive sex-stratified projections of cancer prevalence for 22 cancer sites in Japan from 2020 to 2050.

METHODS

Using a scenario-based approach, we projected cancer prevalence by combining projected incidence cases and survival probabilities. Age-specific incidences were forecasted using age-period-cohort models, while survival rates were estimated using a period-analysis approach and multiple parametric survival models. To understand changes in cancer prevalence, decomposition analysis was conducted, assessing the contributions of incidence, survival, and population demographics.

RESULTS

By 2050, cancer prevalence in Japan is projected to reach 3,665,900 (3,210,200 to 4,201,400) thousand cases, representing a 13.1% increase from 2020. This rise is primarily due to a significant increase in female survivors (+27.6%) compared with a modest increase in males (+0.8%), resulting in females overtaking males in prevalence counts from 2040 onward. In 2050, the projected most prevalent cancer sites in Japan include colorectal, female breast, prostate, lung, and stomach cancers, accounting for 66.4% of all survivors. Among males, the highest absolute increases in prevalence are projected for prostate, lung, and malignant lymphoma cancers, while among females, the highest absolute increases are expected for female breast, colorectal, and corpus uteri cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings emphasize the evolving cancer prevalence, influenced by aging populations, changes in cancer incidence rates, and improved survival. Effective prevention, detection, and treatment strategies are crucial to address the growing cancer burden.

IMPACT

This study contributes to comprehensive cancer control strategies and ensures sufficient support for cancer survivors in Japan.

Dynamic zero-COVID policy and healthcare utilization patterns in China during the Shanghai COVID-19 Omicron outbreak

BACKGROUND

In April 2022, an outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus Omicron variant in Shanghai precipitated an extensive lockdown. We assessed changes in healthcare utilization during this outbreak and investigated the relationship between the stringency of mitigation strategies and disruptions in healthcare utilization.

METHODS

Using provincial-level data from routine health information systems covering all hospitals across Mainland China, we conducted an interrupted time series analysis to examine changes in healthcare utilization during the Shanghai outbreak. Linear regression was used to evaluate the direction and magnitude of the association between the relative changes in the move-out movement index, a proxy for the stringency in population-level mitigation strategies, and the estimated relative changes in healthcare utilization.

RESULTS

Overall, there were 22.9 billion outpatient visits and 1.2 billion discharged inpatients during the study period from January 2016 to May 2022, including 9.1 billion (39.7%) and 0.46 billion (38.2%) in the post-COVID-19 period (January 2020-May 2022), respectively. From March through May 2022, the outbreak resulted in an accumulative loss of 23.5 million (47%) outpatient visits and 0.6 million (55%) discharged inpatients in Shanghai, and a loss of 150.3 million (14%) outpatient visits and 3.6 million (7%) discharged inpatients in other regions. We find that for every 10-percentage point reduction in the relative change of move-out index, a 2.7 (95% CI: 2.0-3.4) percentage point decline in the relative change of outpatient visits, and a 4.3 (95% CI: 3.5-5.2) percentage points decline in the relative change of inpatient discharges.

CONCLUSIONS

The Shanghai COVID-19 Omicron outbreak associates with a substantial reduction in outpatient visits and inpatient discharges within Shanghai and other regions in China. The stringency of the COVID-19 lockdown policies associates with more profound reductions in healthcare utilization.

Physical Activity Levels in People with Cancer Undergoing Chemotherapy: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

Physical activity (PA) has been shown to improve chemotherapy side effects, survival rates and treatment adherence in people with cancer. This review aimed to identify whether people undergoing chemotherapy in different exercise interventions meet PA guidelines during chemotherapy.

DATA SOURCES

Databases searched were CINAHL complete, PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, AMED, Joanna Briggs Institute, OVID MEDLINE, and Google Scholar. Eligibility and risk-of-bias were reviewed by two authors. PROSPERO registration: CRD42018093839.

CONCLUSION

Thirty-three studies were eligible (14 randomized controlled trials, six pre-post, and 13 cross-sectional studies), which included 2,722 people with cancer undergoing chemotherapy. Studies (n = 11/13) found PA interventions successfully increased or maintained PA participation levels, whereas PA declined without intervention. This review has identified that due to limited evidence it is not possible to determine the most appropriate intervention to improve PA for people undergoing chemotherapy. Despite the well-documented benefits of PA, most people undergoing chemotherapy do not achieve the PA guidelines. Clinicians should be aware that during treatment, participants may not meet PA guidelines even if they participate in an intervention. However, interventions may prevent PA levels from declining. Further research is required to determine the most effective approaches to increase PA levels while undergoing chemotherapy.

IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING PRACTICE

Nurses are well placed to have conversations with patients undergoing chemotherapy regarding PA levels. PA should be considered as part of a treatment regimen. Tailored advice must be provided aiming to improve health outcomes. Referral to an exercise professional is best practice to improve the uptake of PA.

New Regional Dynamic Cancer Model across the European Union

BACKGROUND

Can increasing levels of economic wealth significantly influence changes in cancer incidence and mortality rates?

METHODS

We investigated this issue by means of regression analyses based on the study of incidence and mortality indicators for lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal; colon; pancreatic; lung; leukaemia; brain and central nervous system cancers in correlation with the levels of economic welfare and financial allocations to health at the level of the European Union member states, with the exception of Luxembourg and Cyprus for which there are no official statistical data reported.

RESULTS

The results of the study showed that there were significant disparities both regionally and by gender, requiring corrective public policy measures that were formulated in this study.

CONCLUSIONS

The conclusions highlight the main findings of the study in terms of the evolution of the disease, present the significant aspects that characterise the evolution of each type of cancer during the period analysed (1993-2021), and highlight the novelty and limitations of the study and future directions of research. As a result, increasing economic welfare is a potential factor in halting the effects of cancer incidence and mortality at the population level, while the financial allocations to health of EU member countries' budgets are a drawback due to large regional disparities.

Early survival for patients newly diagnosed with cancer during COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the association between the COVID-19 pandemic and early survival among newly diagnosed cancer patients.

METHODS

This retrospective population-based cohort study used linked administrative datasets from Ontario, Canada. Adults (≥18 years) who received a cancer diagnosis between March 15 and December 31, 2020, were included in a pandemic cohort, while those diagnosed during the same dates in 2018/2019 were included in a pre-pandemic cohort. All patients were followed for one full year after the date of diagnosis. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess survival in relation to the pandemic, patient characteristics at diagnosis, and the modality of first cancer treatment as a time-varying covariate. Interaction terms were explored to measure the pandemic association with survival for each cancer type.

RESULTS

Among 179,746 patients, 53,387 (29.7%) were in the pandemic cohort and 37,741 (21.0%) died over the first post-diagnosis year. No association between the pandemic and survival was found when adjusting for patient characteristics at diagnosis (HR 0.99 [95% CI 0.96-1.01]), while marginally better survival was found for the pandemic cohort when the modality of treatment was additionally considered (HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.95-0.99]). When examining each cancer type, only a new melanoma diagnosis was associated with a worse survival in the pandemic cohort (HR 1.25 [95% CI 1.05-1.49]).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients able to receive a cancer diagnosis during the pandemic, one-year overall survival was not different than those diagnosed in the previous 2 years. This study highlights the complex nature of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on cancer care.

Estimating Excess Mortality Due to Prostate, Breast, and Uterus Cancer during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Peru: A Time Series Analysis

During the COVID-19 pandemic, most of the deaths in Peru were related to COVID-19; however, cancer deaths have also been exacerbated in the first months of the pandemic. Despite this, excess mortalities of prostate, breast, and uterus cancer are not available by age group and region from January to December 2020. Therefore, we estimated the excess deaths and excess death rates (per 100,000 habitants) due to prostate, breast, and uterus cancer in 25 Peruvian regions. We did a time series analysis. Prostate, breast, and uterus cancer death data for 25 Peruvian regions were retrieved during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as well as data for up to 3 years prior (2017-2019) from the Sistema Informatico Nacional de Defunciones at the Ministry of Health of Peru. Deaths in 2020 were defined as observed deaths. The expected deaths (in 2020) were estimated using the average deaths over 3 preceding years (2017, 2018 and 2019). Excess mortality was calculated as the difference between observed mortality and expected mortality in 2020. We estimated that the number of excess deaths and the excess death rates due to prostate, breast, and uterus cancer were 610 deaths (55%; 12.8 deaths per 100,000 men), 443 deaths (43%; 6 deaths per 100,000 women), and 154 deaths (25%; 2 deaths per 100,000 women), respectively. Excess numbers of deaths and excess death rates due to prostate and breast cancer increased with age. These excess deaths were higher in men aged ≥ 80 years (596 deaths (64%) and 150 deaths per 100,000 men) and women aged 70-79 years (229 deaths (58%) and 15 deaths per 100,000 women), respectively. In summary, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there were excess prostate and breast cancer mortalities in 2020 in Peru, while excess uterus cancer mortalities were low. Age-stratified excess death rates for prostate cancer and breast cancer were higher in men ≥ 80 years and in women ≥ 70 years, respectively.

Reconstruction surgery in head and neck cancer patients amidst the COVID-19 pandemic: Current practice and lessons for the future

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has imposed a radical change in daily life and work routine. In this context, health systems have suffered important and serious repercussions in all fields. Among the changes brought about by the state of global health emergency, adjustments to guidelines, priorities, structures, professional teams, and epidemiological data stand out. In light of this, the oncological field has witnessed several changes in the approach to cancer, whether due to delay in diagnosis, screening deficit, personnel shortage or the psychological impact that the pandemic has had on cancer patients. This article focuses on the management of oral carcinoma and the surgical approaches that oral and maxillofacial specialists have had at their disposal during the health emergency. In this period, the oral and maxillofacial surgeons have faced many obstacles. The proximity of maxillofacial structures to the airways, the need of elective and punctual procedures in cancerous lesions, the aggressiveness of head and neck tumors, and the need for important healthcare costs to support such delicate surgeries are examples of some of the challenges imposed for this field. One of the possible surgical 'solutions' to the difficulties in managing surgical cases of oral carcinoma during the pandemic is locoregional flaps, which in the pre-COVID-19 era were less used than free flaps. However, during the health emergency, its use has been widely reassessed. This setback may represent a precedent for opening up new reflections. In the course of a long-term pandemic, a reassessment of the validity of different medical and surgical therapeutic approaches should be considered. Finally, given that the pandemic has high-lighted vulnerabilities and shortcomings in a number of ways, including the issues of essential resource shortages, underinvestment in public health services, lack of coordination and versatility among politicians, policymakers and health leaders, resulting in overloaded health systems, rapid case development, and high mortality, a more careful analysis of the changes needed in different health systems to satisfactorily face future emergencies is essential to be carried out. This should be directed especially towards improving the management of health systems, their coordination as well as reviewing related practices, even in the surgical field.

Exercise across the Lung Cancer Care Continuum: An Overview of Systematic Reviews

BACKGROUND

Growing evidence supports exercise for people with lung cancer. This overview aimed to summarise exercise intervention efficacy and safety across the care continuum.

METHODS

Eight databases (including Cochrane and Medline) were searched (inception-February 2022) for systematic reviews of RCTs/quasi-RCTs. Eligibility: population-adults with lung cancer; intervention: exercise (e.g., aerobic, resistance) +/- non-exercise (e.g., nutrition); comparator: usual care/non-exercise; primary outcomes: exercise capacity, physical function, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and post-operative complications. Duplicate, independent title/abstract and full-text screening, data extraction and quality ratings (AMSTAR-2) were completed.

RESULTS

Thirty systematic reviews involving between 157 and 2109 participants (n = 6440 total) were included. Most reviews (n = 28) involved surgical participants. Twenty-five reviews performed meta-analyses. The review quality was commonly rated critically low (n = 22) or low (n = 7). Reviews commonly included combinations of aerobic, resistance and/or respiratory exercise interventions. Pre-operative meta-analyses demonstrated that exercise reduces post-operative complications (n = 4/7) and improves exercise capacity (n = 6/6), whilst HRQoL findings were non-significant (n = 3/3). Post-operative meta-analyses reported significant improvements in exercise capacity (n = 2/3) and muscle strength (n = 1/1) and non-significant HRQoL changes (n = 8/10). Interventions delivered to mixed surgical and non-surgical populations improved exercise capacity (n = 3/4), muscle strength (n = 2/2) and HRQoL (n = 3). Meta-analyses of interventions in non-surgical populations demonstrated inconsistent findings. Adverse event rates were low, however, few reviews reported on safety.

CONCLUSIONS

A large body of evidence supports lung cancer exercise interventions to reduce complications and improve exercise capacity in pre- and post-operative populations. Additional higher-quality research is needed, particularly in the non-surgical population, including subgroup analyses of exercise type and setting.

Sex differences in drug effects and/or toxicity in oncology

The prevalence, incidence, and severity of a wide variety of diseases and ailments are significantly influenced by the significant disparities that occur between the sexes. The way that men and women react to pharmacological treatment also varies. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend these reactions in order to conduct risk assessment correctly and to develop safe and efficient therapies. Even from that limited vantage point, the manner and timing of our drug usage might have unintended and unanticipated consequences. There are sex-specific differences in the incidence and mortality of certain malignancies. One of the most important discoveries in cancer epidemiology is the gender inequalities. Cancer incidence differences between the sexes are thought to be regulated at the genetic and molecular levels and by sex hormones like oestrogen. Differences based on sex and gender are among the least investigated factors impacting cancer susceptibility, progression, survival, and therapy response despite their established importance in clinical care. The molecular mechanisms underlying sex differences in particular are poorly known, hence the majority of precision medicine approaches employ mutational or other genetic data to assign therapy without taking into account how the patient's sex may affect therapeutic efficacy. In patients receiving chemotherapy, there are definite gender-dependent disparities in response rates and the likelihood of side effects. This review explores the influence of sex as a biological variable in drug effects or toxicity in oncology.

Increased Delay in Diagnosis, but Not Treatment, Among Patients With Oral Cancer During the COVID-19 Pandemic

This retrospective cohort study assesses delays in diagnosis and treatment for patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma in a tertiary care university hospital in Naples, Italy.

Early access for innovative oncology medicines: a different story in each nation

BACKGROUND

As innovative oncology medicines are rapidly developed, there is increasing pressure on payers to offer patients timely access to life-saving therapies. The uncertainty surrounding these therapies when phase III clinical trials are pending has necessitated new, adapted pathways to market access, with timelines that greatly vary by country. Understanding differences between pathways may identify opportunities to expedite patient access universally.

OBJECTIVES

To describe early access pathways for new oncology medicines among selected countries with established health technology assessment (HTA) frameworks and publicly funded health systems, with a special focus on real-world evidence (RWE).

METHODS

We reviewed the HTA agency websites of the selected OECD countries: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) for England and Wales; Haute Autorité de Santé (HAS) for France; IQWiG and G-BA for Germany; Agenzia Italiana del Farmaco (AIFA) for Italy; Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC) for Australia; and CADTH and Institut National d'Excellence en Santé et Services Sociaux (INESSS) for Canada as the primary source of evidence.

RESULTS

Processes for early patient access to innovative oncology therapies varied across selected countries; however, most countries have an established pathway for publicly funded early access (England and Wales, France, Germany, Italy, and Australia). The utilization of RWE to support earlier access (coverage with evidence) also varied by country, with some HTA organizations being actively engaged in these agreements (NICE, AIFA, and HAS) and others having no established processes in place (G-BA and CADTH/INESSS).

CONCLUSIONS

This review of early access pathways for novel oncology medicines found substantial variability between countries of interest. Coverage with evidence frameworks may provide a unique opportunity for industry and payers to collaborate on earlier access to innovative cancer therapies with life-saving potential.

Hospital Strain and COVID-19 Fatality - England, April 2020-March 2022

What is already known about this topic?

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, tremendous efforts have been made in countries to suppress epidemic peaks and strengthen hospital services to avoid hospital strain and ultimately reduce the risk of death from COVID-19. However, there is limited empirical evidence that hospital strain increases COVID-19 deaths.

What is added by this report?

We found the risk of death from COVID-19 was linearly associated with the number of patients currently in hospitals, a measure of hospital strain, before the Omicron period. This risk could be increased by a maximum of 188.0%.

What are the implications for public health practice?

These findings suggest that any (additional) effort to reduce hospital strain would be beneficial during early large COVID-19 outbreaks and possibly also others alike. During an Omicron outbreak, vigilance remains necessary to prevent excess deaths caused by hospital strain as happened in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.

Long-Term Projections of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020-2054: An Empirical Validation Approach

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to project new cancer cases/deaths forward to 2054, and decompose changes in cancer cases/deaths to assess the impact of demographic transitions on cancer burden.

METHODS

We collected data on cancer cases/deaths up to 2019, empirically validated the projection performance of multiple statistical models, and selected optimal models by applying time series cross-validation.

RESULTS

We showed an increasing number of new cancer cases but decreasing number of cancer deaths in both genders, with a large burden attributed to population aging. We observed the increasing incidence rates in most cancer sites but reducing rates in some infection-associated cancers, including stomach and liver cancers. Colorectal and lung cancers were projected to remain as leading cancer burdens of both incidence and mortality in Japan over 2020-2054, while prostate and female breast cancers would be the leading incidence burdens among men and women, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from decomposition analysis require more supportive interventions for reducing mortality and improving the quality of life of Japanese elders. We emphasize the important role of governments and policymakers in reforming policies for controlling cancer risk factors, including oncogenic infections. The rapid increase and continued presence of those cancer burdens associated with modifiable risk factors warrant greater efforts in cancer control programs, specifically in enhancing cancer screening and controlling cancer risk factors in Japan.

Cancer Patients First Treated with Chemotherapy: Are They More Likely to Receive Surgery in the Pandemic?

Due to the ramping down of cancer surgery in early pandemic, many newly diagnosed patients received other treatments first. We aimed to quantify the pandemic-related shift in rate of surgery following chemotherapy. This is a retrospective population-based cohort study involving adults diagnosed with cancer between 3 January 2016 and 7 November 2020 in Ontario, Canada who received chemotherapy as first treatment within 6-months of diagnosis. Competing-risks regression models with interaction effects were used to quantify the association between COVID-19 period (receiving a cancer diagnosis before or on/after 15 March 2020) and receipt of surgical reSection 9-months after first chemotherapy. Among 51,653 patients, 8.5% (n = 19,558) of them ultimately underwent surgery 9-months after chemotherapy initiation. Receipt of surgery was higher during the pandemic than before (sHR 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.13). Material deprivation was independently associated with lower receipt of surgery (least vs. most deprived quintile: sHR 1.11, 95% CI 1.04-1.17), but did not change with the pandemic. The surgical rate increase was most pronounced for breast cancer (sHR 1.13, 95% CI 1.06-1.20). These pandemic-related shifts in cancer treatment requires further evaluations to understand the long-term consequences. Persistent material deprivation-related inequity in cancer surgical access needs to be addressed.

Impact of Covid-19 on gastrointestinal cancer surgery: A National Survey

Purpose

To understand the actual impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and frame the future strategies, we conducted a pan India survey to study the impact on the surgical management of gastrointestinal cancers.

Methods

A national multicentre survey in the form of a questionnaire from 16 tertiary care gastrointestinal oncology centres across India was conducted from January 2019 to June 2021 that was divided into a 15-month pre-Covid era and a similar period of active Covid pandemic era.

Results

There was significant disruption of services; 13 (81%) centres worked as dedicated Covid care centres and 43% reported suspension of essential care for more than 6 months. In active Covid phase, there was a 14.5% decrease in registrations and proportion of decrease was highest in the centres from South zone (22%). There was decrease in resections across all organ systems; maximum reduction was noted in hepatic resections (33%) followed by oesophageal and gastric resections (31 and 25% respectively). There was minimal decrease in colorectal resections (5%). A total of 584 (7.1%) patients had either active Covid-19 infection or developed infection in the post-operative period or had recovered from Covid-19 infection. Only 3 (18%) centres reported higher morbidity, while the rest of the centres reported similar or lower morbidity rates when compared to pre-Covid phase; however, 6 (37%) centres reported slightly higher mortality in the active Covid phase.

Conclusion

Covid-19 pandemic resulted in significant reduction in new cancer registrations and elective gastrointestinal cancer surgeries. Perioperative morbidity remained similar despite 7.1% perioperative Covid 19 exposure.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00423-022-02675-6.

Public Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Australia: The Role of the Morrison Government

The Australian Commonwealth government has four health-related responsibilities during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: to provide national leadership; to manage external borders; to protect residents of residential aged care facilities; and to approve, procure and roll-out tests and vaccines. State governments are responsible for determining what public health measures are appropriate and implementing them-including managing the border quarantine arrangements and the testing, tracing, and isolation regime-and managing the hospital response. This paper analyses the national government's response to the pandemic and discusses why it has attracted a thesaurus of negative adjectives.

Projections of smoking-related cancer mortality in Australia to 2044

BACKGROUND

While many high-income countries including Australia have successfully implemented a range of tobacco control policies, smoking remains the leading preventable cause of cancer death in Australia. We have projected Australian mortality rates for cancer types, which have been shown to have an established relationship with cigarette smoking and estimated numbers of cancer deaths attributable to smoking to 2044.

METHODS

Cancer types were grouped according to the proportion of cases currently caused by smoking: 8%-30% and >30%. For each group, an age-period- cohort model or generalised linear model with cigarette smoking exposure as a covariate was selected based on the model fit statistics and validation using observed data. The smoking-attributable fraction (SAF) was calculated for each smoking-related cancer using Australian smoking prevalence data and published relative risks.

RESULTS

Despite the decreasing mortality rates projected for the period 2015-2019 to 2040-2044 for both men and women, the overall number of smoking-related cancer deaths is estimated to increase by 28.7% for men and 35.8% for women: from 138 707 (77 839 men and 60 868 women) in 2015-2019 to 182 819 (100 153 men and 82 666 women) in 2040-2044. Over the period 2020-2044, there will be 254 583 cancer deaths (173 943 men and 80 640 women) directly attributable to smoking, with lung, larynx, oesophagus and oral (comprising lip, oral cavity and pharynx) cancers having the largest SAFs.

INTERPRETATION

Cigarette smoking will cause over 250 000 cancer deaths in Australia from 2020 to 2044. Continued efforts in tobacco control remain a public health priority, even in countries where smoking prevalence has substantially declined.