Interactions between climate and COVID-19

Dynamic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 evolution based on different countries

Since late 2019, COVID-19 has significantly impacted the world. Understanding the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 is crucial for protecting against future infectious pathogens. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive chronological analysis of SARS-CoV-2 evolution by examining mutation prevalence from the source countries of VOCs: United Kingdom, India, Brazil, South Africa, plus two countries: United States, Russia, utilizing genomic sequences from GISAID. Our methodological approach involved large-scale genomic sequence alignment using MAFFT, Python-based data processing on a high-performance computing platform, and advanced statistical methods the Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC), and also Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models for correlation analysis. Our findings elucidate the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 evolution, highlighting the virus's changing behaviour over various pandemic stages. Key results include the discovery of three temporal mutation patterns-lineage distinct, long-span, and competitive mutations-with varying levels of impact on the virus. Notably, we observed a convergence of advantageous mutations in the spike protein, especially in the later stages of the pandemic, indicating a substantial evolutionary pressure on the virus. One of the most significant revelations is the predominant role of natural immunity over vaccination-induced immunity in driving these evolutionary changes. This emphasizes the critical need for regular vaccine updates to maintain efficacy against evolving strains. In conclusion, our study not only sheds light on the evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 but also underscores the urgency for robust, continuous global data collection and sharing. It highlights the necessity for rapid adaptations in medical countermeasures, including vaccine development, to stay ahead of pathogen evolution. This research provides valuable insights for future pandemic preparedness and response strategies.

Do Weather Conditions Still Have an Impact on the COVID-19 Pandemic? An Observation of the Mid-2022 COVID-19 Peak in Taiwan

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, the role of weather conditions in influencing transmission has been unclear, with results varying across different studies. Given the changes in border policies and the higher vaccination rates compared to earlier conditions, this study aimed to reassess the impact of weather on COVID-19, focusing on local climate effects. We analyzed daily COVID-19 case data and weather factors such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and a diurnal temperature range from 1 March to 15 August 2022 across six regions in Taiwan. This study found a positive correlation between maximum daily temperature and relative humidity with new COVID-19 cases, whereas wind speed and diurnal temperature range were negatively correlated. Additionally, a significant positive correlation was identified between the unease environmental condition factor (UECF, calculated as RH*Tmax/WS), the kind of Climate Factor Complex (CFC), and confirmed cases. The findings highlight the influence of local weather conditions on COVID-19 transmission, suggesting that such factors can alter environmental comfort and human behavior, thereby affecting disease spread. We also introduced the Fire-Qi Period concept to explain the cyclic climatic variations influencing infectious disease outbreaks globally. This study emphasizes the necessity of considering both local and global climatic effects on infectious diseases.

Association metrological factors with Covid-19 mortality in Tehran, Iran (2020-2021)

The outbreak of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has raised questions about the potential role of climate and environmental factors in disease transmission. This study examined meteorological and demographic factors to determine their impact on mortality and hospitalization rates in Tehran, Iran from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2022. Notably, hospitalization cases were positively associated with temperature (P-value: 0.001 in spring, P-value: 0.045 in winter) and pressure (P-value: 0.004 in spring), while being negatively associated with wind speed (P-value: 0.03 in spring, P-value: 0.01 in autumn) and humidity (P-value: 0.001 in autumn) during the spring and autumn seasons. Conversely, mortality was associated with wind speed (P-value: 0.01) and pressure (P-value: 0.02) during winter and spring, respectively. Moreover, temperature was associated with mortality in both spring (P-value: 0.00) and winter (P-value: 0.04). The findings suggest that identifying the environmental factors that contribute to the spread of COVID-19 can help prevent future waves of the pandemic in Tehran.

Prediction models of COVID-19 fatality in nine Peruvian provinces: A secondary analysis of the national epidemiological surveillance system

There are initiatives to promote the creation of predictive COVID-19 fatality models to assist decision-makers. The study aimed to develop prediction models for COVID-19 fatality using population data recorded in the national epidemiological surveillance system of Peru. A retrospective cohort study was conducted (March to September of 2020). The study population consisted of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported in the surveillance system of nine provinces of Lima, Peru. A random sample of 80% of the study population was selected, and four prediction models were constructed using four different strategies to select variables: 1) previously analyzed variables in machine learning models; 2) based on the LASSO method; 3) based on significance; and 4) based on a post-hoc approach with variables consistently included in the three previous strategies. The internal validation was performed with the remaining 20% of the population. Four prediction models were successfully created and validate using data from 22,098 cases. All models performed adequately and similarly; however, we selected models derived from strategy 1 (AUC 0.89, CI95% 0.87-0.91) and strategy 4 (AUC 0.88, CI95% 0.86-0.90). The performance of both models was robust in validation and sensitivity analyses. This study offers insights into estimating COVID-19 fatality within the Peruvian population. Our findings contribute to the advancement of prediction models for COVID-19 fatality and may aid in identifying individuals at increased risk, enabling targeted interventions to mitigate the disease. Future studies should confirm the performance and validate the usefulness of the models described here under real-world conditions and settings.

COVID-19 epidemic in Panama

Objective

It is necessary to establish the evolution that the pandemic has had in Panama by weeks and months and to clearly establish the existence of surges or peaks, according to cases and deaths and the relationship with age groups.

Methodology

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all confirmed COVID-19 cases reported by the Ministry of Health of Panama during the first 3 years of the epidemic (March 9, 2020, March 11, 2023). All cases were obtained from information provided by the Ministry of Health. We obtained daily information of the population at the national level reported as new cases, deaths, admission to hospitals, admission to intensive care units and by age groups. The information is classified by epidemiological week and by month from the diagnosis of the first case until March 2023.

Results

During the three years of the study, 1,032,316 cases of COVID-19 were registered in the Republic of Panama, and the number of deaths reported was 8,621, for a fatality rate of 0.83 % throughout that period. The number of deaths decreased over the 3 years of the pandemic; however, similar to the cases, there were periods of surges (peaks) per year in June/July and in December/January. The lethality progressively increased according to the age of the affected patients. During the first year, the lethality in those under 20 years of age was 0.05 %, and in those over 80 years old, it was 17.54 %. This pattern was maintained during the second year; however, there was a large decrease in all age groups.

Conclusion

the highest lethality rate in Panama occurred in the first year of the pandemic, with a great decrease in the third year; the impact of lethality is proportional to the age of the individual, with a high possibility of death in those over 80 years of age. During each pandemic year, there are two peaks (surges of new cases and deaths) per year, which are important times to take into account to generate strategies aimed at reducing the impact.

Impact of Climate Change, Food Insecurity, and COVID-19 on the Health of Neonates and Children: A Narrative Review

Climate change, food insecurity, and epidemics affect all population sub-groups. This article reviews the current evidence on the relationships between climate change, food insecurity, and the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of newborn and child health. The authors searched Medline, PsycINFO, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and Scopus databases using a structured approach. Food insecurity, particularly from the lack of food access and affordability, increased amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Factors such as nationwide lockdowns, increased unemployment and financial instability, and school closures precipitated food insecurity. Children born to immigrant parents, belonging to racial and ethnic minority groupsor low-income families, and those who were Autistic were highly vulnerable. Climate change also contributes to food insecurity, with increased susceptibility among neonates and children compared to adults. There is a need for further research on the relationships between climate-linked exposures and COVID-19 transmission. Multisectoral collaborations and multilevel interventions are necessary to mobilize local and national resources for mitigating and preventing the synergistic effects of the three concurrent crises. The evidence-informed discourse on this topic can help in improved preparedness and response for future outbreaks and epidemics. The policy interventions for newborn and child survival need to factor in climate change, food insecurity, and emerging diseases.

Justice implications of health and food security policies for Indigenous peoples facing COVID-19: a qualitative study and policy analysis in Peru

The spread of COVID-19 in Peru resulted in the declaration of a national health emergency, in which Indigenous peoples were identified as being particularly vulnerable due to their pre-existing poor health indicators and disadvantaged social conditions. The aim of this paper is to examine how the Peruvian government responded to the health and food needs of the Shawi and Ashaninka Indigenous peoples of Peru during the first 18 months of the pandemic (March 2020-August 2021). This study uses both official policy documents and real-world experiences to evaluate policy responses in terms of their immediate impact and their longer-term sustainability and contribution to the improvement of health, well-being and justice for Indigenous communities. Four health and food security responses were evaluated: the Amazon Health Plan and Indigenous Command; food aid; cash aid; and COVID-19 vaccination. We employed the Multidimensional Injustice Framework to analyse the justice implications of the design and implementation of responses. Data collection included 71 interviews with government officials (n = 7), Indigenous leaders (n = 31) and community members (n = 33). The results show how national and regional governments released policies to address the health and food needs of Indigenous peoples directly or indirectly, as part of a broader focus on vulnerable people. However, justice implications were not sufficiently addressed in the design or implementation of the responses. On the distributive dimension, Indigenous communities were prioritized to receive health goods and services, nevertheless, the distribution had shortcomings that impeded their collection and Indigenous food systems and livelihoods were largely overlooked. On the procedural dimension, Indigenous representatives were included to provide culturally sensitive feedback on health interventions, but without funding, and furthermore, the community members had only passive participation. This paper points out the importance of considering and addressing justice implications for more effective and fairer health and food policy responses to current and future health crises.

The asymmetric effects of climate risk on higher-moment connectedness among carbon, energy and metals markets

Climate change affects price fluctuations in the carbon, energy and metals markets through physical and transition risks. Climate physical risk is mainly caused by extreme weather, natural disasters and other events caused by climate change, whereas climate transition risk mainly results from the gradual switchover to a low-carbon economy. Given that the connectedness between financial markets may be affected by various factors such as extreme events and economic transformation, understanding the different roles of climate physical risk and transition risk on the higher-moment connectedness across markets has important implications for investors to construct portfolios and regulators to establish regulation system. Here, using the GJRSK model, time-frequency connectedness framework and quantile-on-quantile method, we show asymmetric effects of climate risk on connectedness among carbon, energy and metals markets, with higher impacts of climate physical risk on upward risk spillovers, and greater effects of climate transition risk on the downside risk of kurtosis connectedness.

Risk-return profile of environmentally friendly assets: Evidence from the NASDAQ OMX green economy index family

The COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical risks and net-zero targets have created not only pressures but incentives for energy investors. The renewable energy has become the largest energy sector and provided significant investment opportunities. However, companies operating in this sector are highly risky due to economic and political barriers. Therefore, it is of crucial importance for investors to properly assess the risk-return dynamics of these investments. This paper examines the risk-return characteristics of clean energy equities at a disaggregate level using a battery of performance metrics. The main results provide evidence of significant heterogeneity across clean energy sub-sectors; for instance, fuel cell and solar stocks display higher downside risks than the others, while the developer/operator equities are the least risky. The findings further provide evidence of higher risk-adjusted returns during the coronavirus pandemic; as an example, energy management companies appear to provide the highest risk-adjusted returns in the wake of the COVID-19. Comparing the performance with traditional sectors, clean energy stocks outperform certain sectors, including dirty assets. These findings offer important implications for investors, portfolio managers, and policy makers.

Risk perception of compound emergencies: A household survey on flood evacuation and sheltering behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic

Compound hazards are derived from independent disasters that occur simultaneously. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the coupling of low-probability high-impact climate events has introduced a novel form of conflicting stressors that inhibits the operation of traditional logistics developed for single-hazard emergencies. The competing goals of hindering virus contagion and expediting massive evacuation have posed unique challenges for community safety. Yet, how a community perceives associated risks has been debated. This research utilized a web-based survey to explore the relationship between residents' perceptions of conflicting risks and emergency choices made during a historic compound event, the flooding in 2020 in Michigan, US that coincided with the pandemic. After the event, postal mail was randomly sent to 5,000 households living in the flooded area, collecting 556 responses. We developed two choice models for predicting survivors' evacuation options and sheltering length. The impact of sociodemographic factors on perceptions of COVID-19 risks was also examined. The results revealed greater levels of concern among females, democrats, and the economically inactive population. The relationship between evacuation choice and concern about virus exposure was dependent upon the number of seniors in the household. Concern about a lack of mask enforcement particularly discouraged evacuees from extended sheltering.

Influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change summit negotiations from the climate governance perspective

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruptions to the world since 2020, with over 647 million confirmed cases and 6.7 million reported deaths as of January 2023. Despite its far-reaching impact, the effects of COVID-19 on the progress of global climate change negotiations have yet to be thoroughly evaluated. This discussion paper conducts an examination of COVID-19's impact on climate change actions at global, national, and local levels through a comprehensive review of existing literature. This analysis reveals that the pandemic has resulted in delays in implementing climate policies and altered priorities from climate action to the pandemic response. Despite these setbacks, the pandemic has also presented opportunities for accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy. The interplay between these outcomes and the different levels of governance will play a crucial role in determining the success or failure of future climate change negotiations.

Policy responses to COVID-19 in Sri Lanka and the consideration of Indigenous Peoples

COVID-19 has had uneven impacts on health and well-being, with Indigenous communities in the Global South facing some of the highest risks. Focusing on the experience of Sri Lanka, this study identifies key policy responses to COVID-19, documents how they evolved over two years of the pandemic, and examines if and how government responses have addressed issues pertaining to Indigenous Peoples. Drawing upon an analysis of policy documents (n = 110) and interviews with policymakers (n = 20), we characterize seven key policy responses implemented by the Sri Lankan government: i) testing for and identifying COVID-19; ii) quarantine procedures; iii) provisional clinical treatments; iv) handling other diseases during COVID-19; v) movement; vi) guidelines to be adhered to by the general public; and vii) health and vaccination. The nature of these responses changed as the pandemic progressed. There is no evidence that policy development or implementation incorporated the voices and needs of Indigenous Peoples.

Modeling the Climatic Suitability of COVID-19 Cases in Brazil

Studies have shown that climate may affect the distribution of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and its incidence and fatality rates. Here, we applied an ensemble niche modeling approach to project the climatic suitability of COVID-19 cases in Brazil. We estimated the cumulative incidence, mortality rate, and fatality rate of COVID-19 between 2020 and 2021. Seven statistical algorithms (MAXENT, MARS, RF, FDA, CTA, GAM, and GLM) were selected to model the climate suitability for COVID-19 cases from diverse climate data, including temperature, precipitation, and humidity. The annual temperature range and precipitation seasonality showed a relatively high contribution to the models, partially explaining the distribution of COVID-19 cases in Brazil based on the climatic suitability of the territory. We observed a high probability of climatic suitability for high incidence in the North and South regions and a high probability of mortality and fatality rates in the Midwest and Southeast regions. Despite the social, viral, and human aspects regulating COVID-19 cases and death distribution, we suggest that climate may play an important role as a co-factor in the spread of cases. In Brazil, there are regions with a high probability that climatic suitability will contribute to the high incidence and fatality rates of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021.

COVID-19, travel restrictions and environmental consequences

The component of human life that has been most significantly altered by the COVID-19 epidemic is travel. Due to the upheaval produced by the pandemic breakout, countries are becoming increasingly avaricious and are scrambling to stockpile vaccines. The world has been locked down to reduce/control the pandemic outbreak, driving countries to shut their doors to other people from countries. The recent pandemic has had a short-term, positive effect on the environment, but travel restrictions have caused problems for the common person and are expected to deteriorate more soon, necessitating longer quarantines, vaccination requirements, vaccine passports, and immunization certificates required by countries for safe travel. Thus, this study has three objectives. First, we investigate the impact of COVID-19 on travel and the environment, as well as the role that tourists play in the transmission of the virus. Second, we examine how countries are handling COVID-19 vaccines. Finally, we pinpoint differences in vaccination coverage.

Indigenous peoples and the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic scoping review

Past influenza pandemics including the Spanish flu and H1N1 have disproportionately affected Indigenous Peoples. We conducted a systematic scoping review to provide an overview of the state of understanding of the experience of Indigenous peoples during the first 18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, in doing so we capture the state of knowledge available to governments and decision makers for addressing the needs of Indigenous peoples in these early months of the pandemic. We addressed three questions: (a) How is COVID-19 impacting the health and livelihoods of Indigenous peoples, (b) What system level challenges are Indigenous peoples experiencing, (c) How are Indigenous peoples responding? We searched Web of Science, Scopus, and PubMed databases and UN organization websites for publications about Indigenous peoples and COVID-19. Results were analyzed using descriptive statistics and content analysis. A total of 153 publications were included: 140 peer-reviewed articles and 13 from UN organizations. Editorial/commentaries were the most (43%) frequent type of publication. Analysis identified Indigenous peoples from 19 different countries, although 56% of publications were centered upon those in Brazil, United States, and Canada. The majority (90%) of articles focused upon the general adult population, few (<2%) used a gender lens. A small number of articles documented COVID-19 testing (0.04%), incidence (18%), or mortality (16%). Five themes of system level challenges affecting exposure and livelihoods evolved: ecological, poverty, communication, education and health care services. Responses were formal and informal strategies from governments, Indigenous organizations and communities. A lack of ethnically disaggregated health data and a gender lens are constraining our knowledge, which is clustered around a limited number of Indigenous peoples in mostly high-income countries. Many Indigenous peoples have autonomously implemented their own coping strategies while government responses have been largely reactive and inadequate. To 'build back better' we must address these knowledge gaps.