SARS-CoV-2 incubation period across variants of concern, individual factors, and circumstances of infection in France: a case series analysis from the ComCor study

Development of a SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamic model for patients with COVID-19 based on the amount of viral RNA and viral titer

The target-cell limited model, which is one of the mathematical modeling approaches providing a quantitative understanding of viral dynamics, has been applied to describe viral RNA profiles of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in previous studies. However, these models have been developed mainly using patient data from the early phase of the pandemic. Furthermore, no reports focused on the profiles of the viral titer. In this study, the dynamics of both viral RNA and viral titer were characterized using data reflecting the current clinical situation in which the Omicron variant has become epidemic and vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 have become available. Consecutive data for 5212 viral RNA levels and 5216 viral titers were obtained from 720 patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a phase II/III study for ensitrelvir. Our model assumed that productively infected cells would produce only infectious viruses, which could be transformed into non-infectious viruses, and has been used to describe the dynamics of both viral RNA levels and viral titer. The time from infection to symptom onset (tinf) of unvaccinated patients was estimated to be 3.0 days, which was shorter than that of the vaccinated patients. The immune-related parameter as a power function for the vaccinated patients was 1.1 times stronger than that for the unvaccinated patients. Our model allows the prediction of the viral dynamics in patients with COVID-19 from the time of infection to symptom onset. Vaccination status was identified as a factor influencing tinf and the immune function.

The Asymptomatic Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Infections in Households: A Systematic Review

Understanding the clinical spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 infection, including the asymptomatic fraction, is important as asymptomatic individuals are still able to infect other individuals and contribute to ongoing transmission. The WHO Unity Household transmission investigation (HHTI) protocol provides a platform for the prospective and systematic collection of high-quality clinical, epidemiological, serological and virological data from SARS-CoV-2 confirmed cases and their household contacts. These data can be used to understand key severity and transmissibility parameters-including the asymptomatic proportion-in relation to local epidemic context and help inform public health response. We aimed to estimate the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infections in Unity-aligned HHTIs. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis in alignment with the PRISMA 2020 guidelines and registered our systematic review on PROSPERO (CRD42022378648). We searched EMBASE, Web of Science, MEDLINE and bioRxiv and medRxiv from 1 November 2021 to 22 August 2023. We identified 8368 records, of which 98 underwent full text review. We identified only three studies for data extraction, with substantial variation in study design and corresponding estimates of the asymptomatic proportion. As a result, we did not generate a pooled estimate or I2 metric. The limited number of quality studies that we identified highlights the need for improved preparedness and response capabilities to facilitate robust HHTI implementation, analysis and reporting, to better inform national, regional and global risk assessments and policymaking.

A unifying model to explain frequent SARS-CoV-2 rebound after nirmatrelvir treatment and limited prophylactic efficacy

In a pivotal trial (EPIC-HR), a 5-day course of oral ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, given early during symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (within three days of symptoms onset), decreased hospitalization and death by 89.1% and nasal viral load by 0.87 log relative to placebo in high-risk individuals. Yet, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir failed as post-exposure prophylaxis in a trial, and frequent viral rebound has been observed in subsequent cohorts. We develop a mathematical model capturing viral-immune dynamics and nirmatrelvir pharmacokinetics that recapitulates viral loads from this and another clinical trial (PLATCOV). Our results suggest that nirmatrelvir's in vivo potency is significantly lower than in vitro assays predict. According to our model, a maximally potent agent would reduce the viral load by approximately 3.5 logs relative to placebo at 5 days. The model identifies that earlier initiation and shorter treatment duration are key predictors of post-treatment rebound. Extension of treatment to 10 days for Omicron variant infection in vaccinated individuals, rather than increasing dose or dosing frequency, is predicted to lower the incidence of viral rebound significantly.

New variants of COVID-19 (XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16, the "Arcturus"): A review of highly questioned concerns, a brief comparison between different peaks in the COVID-19 pandemic, with a focused systematic review on expert recommendations for prevention, vaccination, and treatment measures in the general population and at-risk groups

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic has taken many forms and continues to evolve, now around the Omicron wave, raising concerns over the globe. With COVID-19 being declared no longer a "public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC)," the COVID pandemic is still far from over, as new Omicron subvariants of interest and concern have risen since January of 2023. Mainly with the XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16 subvariants, the pandemic is still very much "alive" and "breathing."

METHODS

This review consists of five highly concerning questions about the current state of the COVID Omicron peak. We searched four main online databases to answer the first four questions. For the last one, we performed a systematic review of the literature, with keywords "Omicron," "Guidelines," and "Recommendations."

RESULTS

A total of 31 articles were included. The main symptoms of the current Omicron wave include a characteristically high fever, coughing, conjunctivitis (with itching eyes), sore throat, runny nose, congestion, fatigue, body ache, and headache. The median incubation period of the symptoms is shorter than the previous peaks. Vaccination against COVID can still be considered effective for the new subvariants.

CONCLUSION

Guidelines recommend continuation of personal protective measures, third and fourth dose boosters, along with administration of bivalent messenger RNA vaccine boosters. The consensus antiviral treatment is combination therapy using Nirmatrelvir and Ritonavir, and the consensus for pre-exposure prophylaxis is Tixagevimab and Cilgavimab combination. We hope the present paper raises awareness for the continuing presence of COVID and ways to lower the risks, especially for at-risk groups.

Outdoor air pollution as a risk factor for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2: A nationwide test-negative case-control study in the Netherlands

Air pollution is a known risk factor for several diseases, but the extent to which it influences COVID-19 compared to other respiratory diseases remains unclear. We performed a test-negative case-control study among people with COVID-19-compatible symptoms who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, to assess whether their long- and short-term exposure to ambient air pollution (AAP) was associated with testing positive (vs. negative) for SARS-CoV-2. We used individual-level data for all adult residents in the Netherlands who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 between June and November 2020, when only symptomatic people were tested, and modeled ambient concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and O3 at geocoded residential addresses. In long-term exposure analysis, we selected individuals who did not change residential address in 2017-2019 (1.7 million tests) and considered the average concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 in that period, and different sources of PM (industry, livestock, other agricultural activities, road traffic, other Dutch sources, foreign sources). In short-term exposure analysis, individuals not changing residential address in the two weeks before testing day (2.7 million tests) were included in the analyses, thus considering 1- and 2-week average concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and O3 before testing day as exposure. Mixed-effects logistic regression analysis with adjustment for several confounders, including municipality and testing week to account for spatiotemporal variation in viral circulation, was used. Overall, there was no statistically significant effect of long-term exposure to the studied pollutants on the odds of testing positive vs. negative for SARS-CoV-2. However, significant positive associations of long-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 from specifically foreign and livestock sources, and to PM10 from other agricultural sources, were observed. Short-term exposure to PM10 (adjusting for NO2) and PM2.5 were also positively associated with increased odds of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. While these exposures seemed to increase COVID-19 risk relative to other respiratory diseases, the underlying biological mechanisms remain unclear. This study reinforces the need to continue to strive for better air quality to support public health.

flepiMoP: The evolution of a flexible infectious disease modeling pipeline during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented demand for projections of disease burden and healthcare utilization under scenarios ranging from unmitigated spread to strict social distancing policies. In response, members of the Johns Hopkins Infectious Disease Dynamics Group developed flepiMoP (formerly called the COVID Scenario Modeling Pipeline), a comprehensive open-source software pipeline designed for creating and simulating compartmental models of infectious disease transmission and inferring parameters through these models. The framework has been used extensively to produce short-term forecasts and longer-term scenario projections of COVID-19 at the state and county level in the US, for COVID-19 in other countries at various geographic scales, and more recently for seasonal influenza. In this paper, we highlight how the flepiMoP has evolved throughout the COVID-19 pandemic to address changing epidemiological dynamics, new interventions, and shifts in policy-relevant model outputs. As the framework has reached a mature state, we provide a detailed overview of flepiMoP's key features and remaining limitations, thereby distributing flepiMoP and its documentation as a flexible and powerful tool for researchers and public health professionals to rapidly build and deploy large-scale complex infectious disease models for any pathogen and demographic setup.

COVID-19 transmission between the community and meat processing plants in Ireland: A retrospective modelling study

Outbreaks of COVID-19 in meat processing plants (MPPs) were recorded globally throughout the pandemic. There was speculation these outbreaks resulted in dissemination of COVID-19 throughout the surrounding county leading to high incidence rates. We aimed to investigate the dynamics of spread between MPPs and their surrounding counties. In this retrospective longitudinal study, data were collected on the number and size of outbreaks in 33 MPPs and county infections in Ireland between March 2020 and May 2021. These data were used to investigate the relationship between outbreaks in MPPs and county infection rates through statistical analysis, and the development of a novel SEIR model. We found an association between the number of MPPs present in a county and county incidence rates, however, incidence rates in the counties did not increase as a consequence of an outbreak in an MPP. The model results indicate that county incidence rates in the weeks prior to an MPP outbreak could reliably predict the size of that outbreak in a plant, r(49) = 0·62, p < 0·0001, RMSD = 5·6. In Ireland, outbreaks in MPPs were strongly correlated with high levels of infection in the surrounding county, rather than being a driver of infection in the county. The modified SEIR model described here can provide an explanation of the generative process required to cause outbreaks of the size and scale that occur in MPPs.

Assessment of fever screening at airports in detecting domestic passengers infected with SARS-CoV-2, 2020-2022, Okinawa prefecture, Japan

BACKGROUND

While airport screening measures for COVID-19 infected passengers at international airports worldwide have been greatly relaxed, observational studies evaluating fever screening alone at airports remain scarce. The purpose of this study is to retrospectively assess the effectiveness of fever screening at airports in preventing the influx of COVID-19 infected persons.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective epidemiological analysis of fever screening implemented at 9 airports in Okinawa Prefecture from May 2020 to March 2022. The number of passengers covered during the same period was 9,003,616 arriving at 9 airports in Okinawa Prefecture and 5,712,983 departing passengers at Naha Airport. The capture rate was defined as the proportion of reported COVID-19 cases who would have passed through airport screening to the number of suspected cases through fever screening at the airport, and this calculation used passengers arriving at Naha Airport and surveillance data collected by Okinawa Prefecture between May 2020 and March 2021.

RESULTS

From May 2020 to March 2021, 4.09 million people were reported to pass through airports in Okinawa. During the same period, at least 122 people with COVID-19 infection arrived at the airports in Okinawa, but only a 10 suspected cases were detected; therefore, the capture rate is estimated to be up to 8.2% (95% CI: 4.00-14.56%). Our result of a fever screening rate is 0.0002% (95%CI: 0.0003-0.0006%) (10 suspected cases /2,971,198 arriving passengers). The refusal rate of passengers detected by thermography who did not respond to temperature measurements was 0.70% (95% CI: 0.19-1.78%) (4 passengers/572 passengers).

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that airport screening based on thermography alone missed over 90% of COVID-19 infected cases, indicating that thermography screening may be ineffective as a border control measure. The fact that only 10 febrile cases were detected after screening approximately 3 million passengers suggests the need to introduce measures targeting asymptomatic infections, especially with long incubation periods. Therefore, other countermeasures, e.g. preboarding RT-PCR testing, are highly recommended during an epidemic satisfying World Health Organization (WHO) Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) criteria with pathogen characteristics similar or exceeding SARS-CoV-2, especially when traveling to rural cities with limited medical resources.

SARS-CoV-2 Test-to-Stay in Daycare

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Test-to-stay concepts apply serial testing of children in daycare after exposure to SARS-CoV-2 without use of quarantine. This study aims to assess the safety of a test-to-stay screening in daycare facilities.

METHODS

714 daycare facilities and approximately 50 000 children ≤6 years in Cologne, Germany participated in a SARS-CoV-2 Pool-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) screening from March 2021 to April 2022. The screening initially comprised post-exposure quarantine and was adapted to a test-to-stay approach during its course. To assess safety of the test-to-stay approach, we explored potential changes in frequencies of infections among children after the adaptation to the test-to-stay approach by applying regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) analyses. To this end, PCR-test data were linked with routinely collected data on reported infections in children and analyzed using ordinary least squares regressions.

RESULTS

219 885 Pool-PCRs and 352 305 Single-PCRs were performed. 6440 (2.93%) Pool-PCRs tested positive, and 17 208 infections in children were reported. We estimated that during a period of 30 weeks, the test-to-stay concept avoided between 7 and 20 days of quarantine per eligible daycare child. RDiT revealed a 26% reduction (Exp. Coef: 0.74, confidence interval 0.52-1.06) in infection frequency among children and indicated no significant increase attributable to the test-to-stay approach. This result was not sensitive to adjustments for 7-day incidence, season, SARS-CoV-2 variant, and socioeconomic status.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses provide evidence that suggest safety of the test-to-stay approach compared with quarantine measures. This approach offers a promising option to avoid use of quarantine after exposure to respiratory pathogens in daycare settings.

A unifying model to explain high nirmatrelvir therapeutic efficacy against SARS-CoV-2, despite low post-exposure prophylaxis efficacy and frequent viral rebound

In a pivotal trial (EPIC-HR), a 5-day course of oral ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir, given early during symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (within three days of symptoms onset), decreased hospitalization and death by 89.1% and nasal viral load by 0.87 log relative to placebo in high-risk individuals. Yet, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir failed as post-exposure prophylaxis in a trial, and frequent viral rebound has been observed in subsequent cohorts. We developed a mathematical model capturing viral-immune dynamics and nirmatrelvir pharmacokinetics that recapitulated viral loads from this and another clinical trial (PLATCOV). Our results suggest that nirmatrelvir's in vivo potency is significantly lower than in vitro assays predict. According to our model, a maximally potent agent would reduce the viral load by approximately 3.5 logs relative to placebo at 5 days. The model identifies that earlier initiation and shorter treatment duration are key predictors of post-treatment rebound. Extension of treatment to 10 days for Omicron variant infection in vaccinated individuals, rather than increasing dose or dosing frequency, is predicted to lower the incidence of viral rebound significantly.

COVID-19-associated cerebral microbleeds in the general population

Cerebral microbleeds are frequent incidental findings on brain MRI and have previously been shown to occur in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cohorts of critically ill patients. We aimed to determine the risk of having microbleeds on medically indicated brain MRI and compare non-hospitalized COVID-19-infected patients with non-infected controls. In this retrospective case-control study, we included patients over 18 years of age, having an MRI with a susceptibility-weighted sequence, between 1 January 2019 and 1 July 2021. Cases were identified based on a positive reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction test for SARS-CoV-2 and matched with three non-exposed controls, based on age, sex, body mass index and comorbidities. The number of cerebral microbleeds on each scan was determined using artificial intelligence. We included 73 cases and 219 matched non-exposed controls. COVID-19 was associated with significantly greater odds of having cerebral microbleeds on MRI [odds ratio 2.66 (1.23-5.76, 95% confidence interval)], increasingly so when patients with dementia and hospitalized patients were excluded. Our findings indicate that cerebral microbleeds may be associated with COVID-19 infections. This finding may add to the pathophysiological considerations of cerebral microbleeds and help explain cases of incidental cerebral microbleeds in patients with previous COVID-19.

Parametric analysis of the transmission dynamics during indigenous aggregated outbreaks caused by five SARS-CoV-2 strains in Nanjing, China

Background

SARS-CoV-2 strains have been of great concern due to their high infectivity and antibody evasion.

Methods

In this study, data were collected on indigenous aggregated outbreaks in Nanjing from January 2020 to December 2022, caused by five strains including the original strain, the Delta variant, and the Omicron variant (BA.2, BA.5.2, and BF.7). The basic epidemiological characteristics of infected individuals were described and then parametric analysis of transmission dynamics was performed, including the calculation of incubation period, serial interval (SI), the basic reproductive number (R0), and the household secondary attack rate (HSAR). Finally, we compared the trends of transmission dynamic parameters of different strains.

Results

The incubation period for the original strain, the Delta variant, Omicron BA.2, Omicron BA.5.2, and Omicron BF.7 were 6 d (95% CI: 3.5-7.5 d), 5 d (95% CI: 4.0-6.0 d), 3 d (95% CI: 3.0-4.0 d), 3 d (95% CI: 3.0-3.0 d), and 2 d (95% CI: 2.0-3.0 d), respectively; Also, the SI of the five strains were 5.69 d, 4.79 d, 2.7 d, 2.12 d, and 2.43 d, respectively. Notably, the incubation period and SI of the five had both a progressive shortening trend (p < 0.001); Moreover, R0 of the five were 2.39 (95% CI: 1.30-4.29), 3.73 (95% CI: 2.66-5.15), 5.28 (95% CI: 3.52-8.10), 5.54 (95% CI: 2.69-11.17), 7.39 (95% CI: 2.97-18.76), with an increasing trend gradually (p < 0.01); HSAR of the five were 25.5% (95% CI: 20.1-31.7%), 27.4% (95% CI: 22.0-33.4%), 42.9% (95% CI: 34.3-51.8%), 53.1% (95% CI: 45.0-60.9%), 41.4% (95% CI, 25.5-59.3%), also with an increasing trend (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Compared to the original strain, the incubation period and SI decreased while R0 and HSAR increased, suggesting that transmission in the population was faster and the scope of the population was wider. Overall, it's crucial to keep implementing comprehensive measures like monitoring and alert systems, herd immunization plans, and outbreak control.

Latent and incubation periods of Delta, BA.1, and BA.2 variant cases and associated factors: a cross-sectional study in China

BACKGROUND

The latent and incubation periods characterize the transmission of infectious viruses and are the basis for the development of outbreak prevention and control strategies. However, systematic studies on the latent period and associated factors with the incubation period for SAS-CoV-2 variants are still lacking. We inferred the two durations of Delta, BA.1, and BA.2 cases and analyzed the associated factors.

METHODS

The Delta, BA.1, and BA.2 (and its lineages BA.2.2 and BA.2.76) cases with clear transmission chains and infectors from 10 local SAS-CoV-2 epidemics in China were enrolled. The latent and incubation periods were fitted by the Gamma distribution, and associated factors were analyzed using the accelerated failure time model.

RESULTS

The mean latent period for 672 Delta, 208 BA.1, and 677 BA.2 cases was 4.40 (95%CI: 4.24 ~ 4.63), 2.50 (95%CI: 2.27 ~ 2.76), and 2.58 (95%CI: 2.48 ~ 2.69) days, respectively, with 85.65% (95%CI: 83.40 ~ 87.77%), 97.80% (95%CI: 96.35 ~ 98.89%), and 98.87% (95%CI: 98.40 ~ 99.27%) of them starting to shed viruses within 7 days after exposure. In 405 Delta, 75 BA.1, and 345 BA.2 symptomatic cases, the mean latent period was 0.76, 1.07, and 0.79 days shorter than the mean incubation period [5.04 (95%CI: 4.83 ~ 5.33), 3.42 (95%CI: 3.00 ~ 3.89), and 3.39 (95%CI: 3.24 ~ 3.55) days], respectively. No significant difference was observed in the two durations between BA.1 and BA.2 cases. After controlling for the sex, clinical severity, vaccination history, number of infectors, the length of exposure window and shedding window, the latent period [Delta: exp(β) = 0.81, 95%CI: 0.66 ~ 0.98, p = 0.034; Omicron: exp(β) = 0.82, 95%CI: 0.71 ~ 0.94, p = 0.004] and incubation period [Delta: exp(β) = 0.69, 95%CI: 0.55 ~ 0.86, p < 0.001; Omicron: exp(β) = 0.83, 95%CI: 0.72 ~ 0.96, p = 0.013] were significantly shorter in 18 ~ 49 years but did not change significantly in ≥ 50 years compared with 0 ~ 17 years.

CONCLUSION

Pre-symptomatic transmission can occur in Delta, BA.1, and BA.2 cases. The latent and incubation periods between BA.1 and BA.2 were similar but shorter compared with Delta. Age may be associated with the latent and incubation periods of SARS-CoV-2.

Randomized controlled trial of molnupiravir SARS-CoV-2 viral and antibody response in at-risk adult outpatients

Viral clearance, antibody response and the mutagenic effect of molnupiravir has not been elucidated in at-risk populations. Non-hospitalised participants within 5 days of SARS-CoV-2 symptoms randomised to receive molnupiravir (n = 253) or Usual Care (n = 324) were recruited to study viral and antibody dynamics and the effect of molnupiravir on viral whole genome sequence from 1437 viral genomes. Molnupiravir accelerates viral load decline, but virus is detectable by Day 5 in most cases. At Day 14 (9 days post-treatment), molnupiravir is associated with significantly higher viral persistence and significantly lower anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody titres compared to Usual Care. Serial sequencing reveals increased mutagenesis with molnupiravir treatment. Persistence of detectable viral RNA at Day 14 in the molnupiravir group is associated with higher transition mutations following treatment cessation. Viral viability at Day 14 is similar in both groups with post-molnupiravir treated samples cultured up to 9 days post cessation of treatment. The current 5-day molnupiravir course is too short. Longer courses should be tested to reduce the risk of potentially transmissible molnupiravir-mutated variants being generated. Trial registration: ISRCTN30448031.

Source of SARS-CoV-2 infection: results from a series of 584,846 cases in France from October 2020 to August 2022

BACKGROUND

We aimed to study the source of infection for recently SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals from October 2020 to August 2022 in France.

METHODS

Participants from the nationwide ComCor case-control study who reported recent SARS-CoV-2 infection were asked to document the source and circumstances of their infection through an online questionnaire. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the factors associated with not identifying any source of infection.

RESULTS

Among 584,846 adults with a recent SARS-CoV-2 infection in France, 46.9% identified the source of infection and an additional 22.6% suspected an event during which they might have become infected. Known and suspected sources of infection were household members (30.8%), extended family (15.6%), work colleagues (15.0%), friends (11.0%), and possibly multiple/other sources (27.6%). When the source of infection was known, was not a household member, and involved a unique contact (n = 69,788), characteristics associated with transmission events were indoors settings (91.6%), prolonged (> 15 min) encounters (50.5%), symptomatic source case (64.9%), and neither the source of infection nor the participant wearing a mask (82.2%). Male gender, older age, lower education, living alone, using public transportation, attending places of public recreation (bars, restaurants, nightclubs), public gatherings, and cultural events, and practicing indoor sports were all independently associated with not knowing the source of infection.

CONCLUSION

Two-thirds of infections were attributed to interactions with close relatives, friends, or work colleagues. Extra-household indoor encounters without masks were commonly reported and represented avoidable circumstances of infection.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT04607941.

A data set of symptoms and needs of individuals affected by COVID-19

Here we provide data from an online survey of 639 people diagnosed with COVID-19 and resident in France, who were diagnosed with COVID-19 between 30th Jan 2020 and 29th August 2022. In addition to demographic information the survey includes questions about participants' symptoms (by category), symptom onset and persistence, and the effects these symptoms had on their daily lives. Participants were able to include information related to their perceived medical, social and professional needs. These data are needed in order to create effective care policies addressing post-COVID sequelae. Information related to symptom association & dynamics is expected to be useful to clinicians and may also inform more fundamental studies.

Employee investigation and contact tracing program in a pediatric cancer hospital to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 among the workforce, patients, and caregivers

Background

Case investigations and contact tracing are essential disease control measures used by health departments. Early in the pandemic, they were seen as a key strategy to stop COVID-19 spread. The CDC urged rapid action to scale up and train a large workforce and collaborate across public and private agencies to halt COVID-19 transmission.

Methods

We developed a program for case investigation and contact tracing that followed CDC and local health guidelines, compliant with the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) regulations and tailored to the needs and resources of our institution. Program staff were trained and assessed for competency before joining the program.

Results

From March 2020 to May 2021, we performed 838 COVID-19 case investigations, which led to 136 contacts. Most employees reported a known SARS-CoV-2 exposure from the community (n = 435) or household (n = 343). Only seven (5.1%) employees were determined as more likely than not to have SARS-CoV-2 infection related to workplace exposure, and when so, lapses in following the masking recommendations were identified. Between June 2021-February 2022, our program adjusted to the demand of the different waves, particularly omicron, by significantly reducing the amount of data collected. No transmission from employees to patients or caregivers was observed during this period.

Conclusion

Prompt implementation of case investigation and contact tracing is possible, and it effectively reduces workplace exposures. This approach can be adapted to suit the specific needs and requirements of various healthcare settings, particularly those serving the most vulnerable patient populations.

Zoonosis and zooanthroponosis of emerging respiratory viruses

Lung infections in Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) are triggered by a variety of respiratory viruses. All human pandemics have been caused by the members of two major virus families, namely Orthomyxoviridae (influenza A viruses (IAVs); subtypes H1N1, H2N2, and H3N2) and Coronaviridae (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, SARS-CoV-2). These viruses acquired some adaptive changes in a known intermediate host including domestic birds (IAVs) or unknown intermediate host (SARS-CoV-2) following transmission from their natural reservoirs (e.g. migratory birds or bats, respectively). Verily, these acquired adaptive substitutions facilitated crossing species barriers by these viruses to infect humans in a phenomenon that is known as zoonosis. Besides, these adaptive substitutions aided the variant strain to transmit horizontally to other contact non-human animal species including pets and wild animals (zooanthroponosis). Herein we discuss the main zoonotic and reverse-zoonosis events that occurred during the last two pandemics of influenza A/H1N1 and SARS-CoV-2. We also highlight the impact of interspecies transmission of these pandemic viruses on virus evolution and possible prophylactic and therapeutic interventions. Based on information available and presented in this review article, it is important to close monitoring viral zoonosis and viral reverse zoonosis of pandemic strains within a One-Health and One-World approach to mitigate their unforeseen risks, such as virus evolution and resistance to limited prophylactic and therapeutic interventions.

Comparative analysis of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha (B.1.1.7), Gamma (P.1), Zeta (P.2) and Delta (B.1.617.2) in Vero-E6 cells: ultrastructural characterization of cytopathology and replication kinetics

This study compares the effects of virus-cell interactions among SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) isolated in Brazil in 2021, hypothesizing a correlation between cellular alterations and mortality and between viral load and transmissibility. For this purpose, reference isolates of Alpha, Gamma, Zeta, and Delta variants were inoculated into monolayers of Vero-E6 cells. Viral RNA was quantified in cell supernatants by RT‒PCR, and infected cells were analyzed by Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) for qualitative and quantitative evaluation of cellular changes 24, 48, and 72 hours postinfection (hpi). Ultrastructural analyses showed that all variants of SARS-CoV-2 altered the structure and function of mitochondria, nucleus, and rough endoplasmic reticulum of cells. Monolayers infected with the Delta variant showed the highest number of modified cells and the greatest statistically significant differences compared to those of other variants. Viral particles were observed in the cytosol and the cell membrane in 100 % of the cells at 48 hpi. Alpha showed the highest mean particle diameter (79 nm), and Gamma and Delta were the smallest (75 nm). Alpha and Gamma had the highest particle frequency per field at 48 hpi, while the same was observed for Zeta and Delta at 72 hpi and 24 hpi, respectively. The cycle threshold of viral RNA varied among the target protein, VOC, and time of infection. The findings presented here demonstrate that all four VOCs evaluated caused ultrastructural changes in Vero-E6 cells, which were more prominent when infection occured with the Delta variant.

Molnupiravir Revisited-Critical Assessment of Studies in Animal Models of COVID-19

Molnupiravir, a prodrug known for its broad antiviral activity, has demonstrated efficacy in animal models of COVID-19, prompting clinical trials, in which initial results indicated a significant effect against the disease. However, subsequent clinical studies did not confirm these findings, leading to the refusal of molnupiravir for permanent market authorization in many countries. This report critically assessed 22 studies published in 18 reports that investigated the efficacy of molnupiravir in animal models of COVID-19, with the purpose of determining how well the design of these models informed human studies. We found that the administered doses of molnupiravir in most studies involving animal COVID-19 models were disproportionately higher than the dose recommended for human use. Specifically, when adjusted for body surface area, over half of the doses of molnupiravir used in the animal studies exceeded twice the human dose. Direct comparison of reported drug exposure across species after oral administration of molnupiravir indicated that the antiviral efficacy of the dose recommended for human use was underestimated in some animal models and overestimated in others. Frequently, molnupiravir was given prophylactically or shortly after SARS-CoV-2 inoculation in these models, in contrast to clinical trials where such timing is not consistently achieved. Furthermore, the recommended five-day treatment duration for humans was exceeded in several animal studies. Collectively, we suggest that design elements in the animal studies under examination contributed to a preference favoring molnupiravir, and thus inflated expectations for its efficacy against COVID-19. Addressing these elements may offer strategies to enhance the clinical efficacy of molnupiravir for the treatment of COVID-19. Such strategies include dose increment, early treatment initiation, administration by inhalation, and use of the drug in antiviral combination therapy.

Assessing changes in incubation period, serial interval, and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

After the first COVID-19 wave caused by the ancestral lineage, the pandemic has been fueled from the continuous emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. Understanding key time-to-event periods for each emerging variant of concern is critical as it can provide insights into the future trajectory of the virus and help inform outbreak preparedness and response planning. Here, we aim to examine how the incubation period, serial interval, and generation time have changed from the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 lineage to different variants of concern.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis that synthesized the estimates of incubation period, serial interval, and generation time (both realized and intrinsic) for the ancestral lineage, Alpha, Beta, and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2.

RESULTS

Our study included 280 records obtained from 147 household studies, contact tracing studies, or studies where epidemiological links were known. With each emerging variant, we found a progressive shortening of each of the analyzed key time-to-event periods, although we did not find statistically significant differences between the Omicron subvariants. We found that Omicron BA.1 had the shortest pooled estimates for the incubation period (3.49 days, 95% CI: 3.13-4.86 days), Omicron BA.5 for the serial interval (2.37 days, 95% CI: 1.71-3.04 days), and Omicron BA.1 for the realized generation time (2.99 days, 95% CI: 2.48-3.49 days). Only one estimate for the intrinsic generation time was available for Omicron subvariants: 6.84 days (95% CrI: 5.72-8.60 days) for Omicron BA.1. The ancestral lineage had the highest pooled estimates for each investigated key time-to-event period. We also observed shorter pooled estimates for the serial interval compared to the incubation period across the virus lineages. When pooling the estimates across different virus lineages, we found considerable heterogeneities (I2 > 80%; I2 refers to the percentage of total variation across studies that is due to heterogeneity rather than chance), possibly resulting from heterogeneities between the different study populations (e.g., deployed interventions, social behavior, demographic characteristics).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study supports the importance of conducting contact tracing and epidemiological investigations to monitor changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns. Our findings highlight a progressive shortening of the incubation period, serial interval, and generation time, which can lead to epidemics that spread faster, with larger peak incidence, and harder to control. We also consistently found a shorter serial interval than incubation period, suggesting that a key feature of SARS-CoV-2 is the potential for pre-symptomatic transmission. These observations are instrumental to plan for future COVID-19 waves.