1
|
Simões M, Zorn J, Hogerwerf L, Velders GJM, Portengen L, Gerlofs-Nijland M, Dijkema M, Strak M, Jacobs J, Wesseling J, de Vries WJ, Mijnen-Visser S, Smit LAM, Vermeulen R, Mughini-Gras L. Outdoor air pollution as a risk factor for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2: A nationwide test-negative case-control study in the Netherlands. Int J Hyg Environ Health 2024; 259:114382. [PMID: 38652943 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2024.114382] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2024] [Revised: 04/02/2024] [Accepted: 04/15/2024] [Indexed: 04/25/2024]
Abstract
Air pollution is a known risk factor for several diseases, but the extent to which it influences COVID-19 compared to other respiratory diseases remains unclear. We performed a test-negative case-control study among people with COVID-19-compatible symptoms who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, to assess whether their long- and short-term exposure to ambient air pollution (AAP) was associated with testing positive (vs. negative) for SARS-CoV-2. We used individual-level data for all adult residents in the Netherlands who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 between June and November 2020, when only symptomatic people were tested, and modeled ambient concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and O3 at geocoded residential addresses. In long-term exposure analysis, we selected individuals who did not change residential address in 2017-2019 (1.7 million tests) and considered the average concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 in that period, and different sources of PM (industry, livestock, other agricultural activities, road traffic, other Dutch sources, foreign sources). In short-term exposure analysis, individuals not changing residential address in the two weeks before testing day (2.7 million tests) were included in the analyses, thus considering 1- and 2-week average concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and O3 before testing day as exposure. Mixed-effects logistic regression analysis with adjustment for several confounders, including municipality and testing week to account for spatiotemporal variation in viral circulation, was used. Overall, there was no statistically significant effect of long-term exposure to the studied pollutants on the odds of testing positive vs. negative for SARS-CoV-2. However, significant positive associations of long-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 from specifically foreign and livestock sources, and to PM10 from other agricultural sources, were observed. Short-term exposure to PM10 (adjusting for NO2) and PM2.5 were also positively associated with increased odds of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. While these exposures seemed to increase COVID-19 risk relative to other respiratory diseases, the underlying biological mechanisms remain unclear. This study reinforces the need to continue to strive for better air quality to support public health.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mariana Simões
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Jelle Zorn
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Infectious Disease Control (CIb), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Lenny Hogerwerf
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Infectious Disease Control (CIb), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Guus J M Velders
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands; National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Center for Environmental Quality (MIL), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Lützen Portengen
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Miriam Gerlofs-Nijland
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Center for Sustainability, Environment and Health (DMG), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Marieke Dijkema
- Municipal Health Services, Provinces of Overijssel and Gelderland, the Netherlands
| | - Maciek Strak
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Center for Sustainability, Environment and Health (DMG), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - José Jacobs
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Center for Sustainability, Environment and Health (DMG), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Joost Wesseling
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Center for Environmental Quality (MIL), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Wilco J de Vries
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Center for Environmental Quality (MIL), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Suzanne Mijnen-Visser
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Center for Environmental Quality (MIL), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Lidwien A M Smit
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Roel Vermeulen
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Lapo Mughini-Gras
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands; National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Infectious Disease Control (CIb), Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Zorn J, Simões M, Velders GJM, Gerlofs-Nijland M, Strak M, Jacobs J, Dijkema MBA, Hagenaars TJ, Smit LAM, Vermeulen R, Mughini-Gras L, Hogerwerf L, Klinkenberg D. Effects of long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution on COVID-19 incidence: A population-based cohort study accounting for SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels in the Netherlands. Environ Res 2024; 252:118812. [PMID: 38561121 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.118812] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2024] [Revised: 03/25/2024] [Accepted: 03/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/04/2024]
Abstract
Several studies have linked air pollution to COVID-19 morbidity and severity. However, these studies do not account for exposure levels to SARS-CoV-2, nor for different sources of air pollution. We analyzed individual-level data for 8.3 million adults in the Netherlands to assess associations between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and SARS-CoV-2 infection (i.e., positive test) and COVID-19 hospitalisation risks, accounting for spatiotemporal variation in SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels during the first two major epidemic waves (February 2020-February 2021). We estimated average annual concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 at residential addresses, overall and by PM source (road traffic, industry, livestock, other agricultural sources, foreign sources, other Dutch sources), at 1 × 1 km resolution, and weekly SARS-CoV-2 exposure at municipal level. Using generalized additive models, we performed interval-censored survival analyses to assess associations between individuals' average exposure to PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 in the three years before the pandemic (2017-2019) and COVID-19-outcomes, adjusting for SARS-CoV-2 exposure, individual and area-specific confounders. In single-pollutant models, per interquartile (IQR) increase in exposure, PM10 was associated with 7% increased infection risk and 16% increased hospitalisation risk, PM2.5 with 8% increased infection risk and 18% increased hospitalisation risk, and NO2 with 3% increased infection risk and 11% increased hospitalisation risk. Bi-pollutant models suggested that effects were mainly driven by PM. Associations for PM were confirmed when stratifying by urbanization degree, epidemic wave and testing policy. All emission sources of PM, except industry, showed adverse effects on both outcomes. Livestock showed the most detrimental effects per unit exposure, whereas road traffic affected severity (hospitalisation) more than infection risk. This study shows that long-term exposure to air pollution increases both SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalisation risks, even after controlling for SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels, and that PM may have differential effects on these COVID-19 outcomes depending on the emission source.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jelle Zorn
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Mariana Simões
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Guus J M Velders
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Miriam Gerlofs-Nijland
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Maciek Strak
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - José Jacobs
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Marieke B A Dijkema
- Environment and Health in Overijssel and Gelderland, Public Health Services Gelderland-Midden, the Netherlands
| | | | - Lidwien A M Smit
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Roel Vermeulen
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Lapo Mughini-Gras
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands; Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
| | - Lenny Hogerwerf
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Don Klinkenberg
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Sokhi RS, Singh V, Querol X, Finardi S, Targino AC, Andrade MDF, Pavlovic R, Garland RM, Massagué J, Kong S, Baklanov A, Ren L, Tarasova O, Carmichael G, Peuch VH, Anand V, Arbilla G, Badali K, Beig G, Belalcazar LC, Bolignano A, Brimblecombe P, Camacho P, Casallas A, Charland JP, Choi J, Chourdakis E, Coll I, Collins M, Cyrys J, da Silva CM, Di Giosa AD, Di Leo A, Ferro C, Gavidia-Calderon M, Gayen A, Ginzburg A, Godefroy F, Gonzalez YA, Guevara-Luna M, Haque SM, Havenga H, Herod D, Hõrrak U, Hussein T, Ibarra S, Jaimes M, Kaasik M, Khaiwal R, Kim J, Kousa A, Kukkonen J, Kulmala M, Kuula J, La Violette N, Lanzani G, Liu X, MacDougall S, Manseau PM, Marchegiani G, McDonald B, Mishra SV, Molina LT, Mooibroek D, Mor S, Moussiopoulos N, Murena F, Niemi JV, Noe S, Nogueira T, Norman M, Pérez-Camaño JL, Petäjä T, Piketh S, Rathod A, Reid K, Retama A, Rivera O, Rojas NY, Rojas-Quincho JP, San José R, Sánchez O, Seguel RJ, Sillanpää S, Su Y, Tapper N, Terrazas A, Timonen H, Toscano D, Tsegas G, Velders GJM, Vlachokostas C, von Schneidemesser E, Vpm R, Yadav R, Zalakeviciute R, Zavala M. A global observational analysis to understand changes in air quality during exceptionally low anthropogenic emission conditions. Environ Int 2021; 157:106818. [PMID: 34425482 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2021.106818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 59] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2021] [Revised: 07/21/2021] [Accepted: 08/05/2021] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
This global study, which has been coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO/GAW) programme, aims to understand the behaviour of key air pollutant species during the COVID-19 pandemic period of exceptionally low emissions across the globe. We investigated the effects of the differences in both emissions and regional and local meteorology in 2020 compared with the period 2015-2019. By adopting a globally consistent approach, this comprehensive observational analysis focuses on changes in air quality in and around cities across the globe for the following air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, PMC (coarse fraction of PM), NO2, SO2, NOx, CO, O3 and the total gaseous oxidant (OX = NO2 + O3) during the pre-lockdown, partial lockdown, full lockdown and two relaxation periods spanning from January to September 2020. The analysis is based on in situ ground-based air quality observations at over 540 traffic, background and rural stations, from 63 cities and covering 25 countries over seven geographical regions of the world. Anomalies in the air pollutant concentrations (increases or decreases during 2020 periods compared to equivalent 2015-2019 periods) were calculated and the possible effects of meteorological conditions were analysed by computing anomalies from ERA5 reanalyses and local observations for these periods. We observed a positive correlation between the reductions in NO2 and NOx concentrations and peoples' mobility for most cities. A correlation between PMC and mobility changes was also seen for some Asian and South American cities. A clear signal was not observed for other pollutants, suggesting that sources besides vehicular emissions also substantially contributed to the change in air quality. As a global and regional overview of the changes in ambient concentrations of key air quality species, we observed decreases of up to about 70% in mean NO2 and between 30% and 40% in mean PM2.5 concentrations over 2020 full lockdown compared to the same period in 2015-2019. However, PM2.5 exhibited complex signals, even within the same region, with increases in some Spanish cities, attributed mainly to the long-range transport of African dust and/or biomass burning (corroborated with the analysis of NO2/CO ratio). Some Chinese cities showed similar increases in PM2.5 during the lockdown periods, but in this case, it was likely due to secondary PM formation. Changes in O3 concentrations were highly heterogeneous, with no overall change or small increases (as in the case of Europe), and positive anomalies of 25% and 30% in East Asia and South America, respectively, with Colombia showing the largest positive anomaly of ~70%. The SO2 anomalies were negative for 2020 compared to 2015-2019 (between ~25 to 60%) for all regions. For CO, negative anomalies were observed for all regions with the largest decrease for South America of up to ~40%. The NO2/CO ratio indicated that specific sites (such as those in Spanish cities) were affected by biomass burning plumes, which outweighed the NO2 decrease due to the general reduction in mobility (ratio of ~60%). Analysis of the total oxidant (OX = NO2 + O3) showed that primary NO2 emissions at urban locations were greater than the O3 production, whereas at background sites, OX was mostly driven by the regional contributions rather than local NO2 and O3 concentrations. The present study clearly highlights the importance of meteorology and episodic contributions (e.g., from dust, domestic, agricultural biomass burning and crop fertilizing) when analysing air quality in and around cities even during large emissions reductions. There is still the need to better understand how the chemical responses of secondary pollutants to emission change under complex meteorological conditions, along with climate change and socio-economic drivers may affect future air quality. The implications for regional and global policies are also significant, as our study clearly indicates that PM2.5 concentrations would not likely meet the World Health Organization guidelines in many parts of the world, despite the drastic reductions in mobility. Consequently, revisions of air quality regulation (e.g., the Gothenburg Protocol) with more ambitious targets that are specific to the different regions of the world may well be required.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ranjeet S Sokhi
- Centre for Atmospheric and Climate Physics (CACP) and Centre for Climate Change Research (C3R), University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, UK.
| | - Vikas Singh
- National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadanki, AP, India
| | - Xavier Querol
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Research Council (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Admir Créso Targino
- Graduate Program in Environment Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Londrina, Brazil
| | | | - Radenko Pavlovic
- Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Canada
| | - Rebecca M Garland
- Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, South Africa; Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa; Department of Geography, Geo-informatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Jordi Massagué
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Research Council (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain; Department of Mining, Industrial and ICT Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech (UPC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Shaofei Kong
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
| | - Alexander Baklanov
- Science and Innovation Department, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Lu Ren
- Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, University of Iowa, Iowa City, United States
| | - Oksana Tarasova
- Science and Innovation Department, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Greg Carmichael
- Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, University of Iowa, Iowa City, United States
| | - Vincent-Henri Peuch
- ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK
| | - Vrinda Anand
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India, India
| | | | - Kaitlin Badali
- Analysis and Air Quality Section, Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Gufran Beig
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India, India
| | | | - Andrea Bolignano
- Agenzia Regionale di Protezione dell'Ambiente del Lazio, Rome, Italy
| | - Peter Brimblecombe
- Department of Marine Environment and Engineering, National Sun Yat Sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Patricia Camacho
- Secretaria del Medio Ambiente de la Ciudad de México (SEDEMA), Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Alejandro Casallas
- Earth System Physics, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy; Escuela de Ciencias Exactas e Ingenieria, Universidad Sergio Arboleda, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Jean-Pierre Charland
- Analysis and Air Quality Section, Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Jason Choi
- Environment Protection Authority Victoria, Centre for Applied Sciences, Macleod, Australia
| | - Eleftherios Chourdakis
- Laboratory of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering, Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Isabelle Coll
- Université Paris-Est Créteil and Université de Paris, CNRS, LISA, Creteil, France
| | - Marty Collins
- Air Monitoring Operations, Resource Stewardship Division, Environment and Parks, Edmonton, Canada
| | - Josef Cyrys
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany
| | | | | | - Anna Di Leo
- Agenzia Regionale di Protezione dell'Ambiente della Lombardia, Milano, Italy
| | - Camilo Ferro
- Escuela de Ciencias Exactas e Ingenieria, Universidad Sergio Arboleda, Bogotá, Colombia
| | | | - Amiya Gayen
- Department of Geography, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India
| | | | - Fabrice Godefroy
- Service de l'Environnement, Division du Contrôle des Rejets et Suivi Environnemental, Montréal, Canada
| | | | - Marco Guevara-Luna
- Conservación, Bioprospección y Desarrollo Sostenible, Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia, Bogotá, Colombia
| | | | - Henno Havenga
- Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa
| | - Dennis Herod
- National Smog Analysis, Analysis and Air Quality Section, Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Urmas Hõrrak
- Institute of Physics, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Tareq Hussein
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR/Physics), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Sergio Ibarra
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Monica Jaimes
- Secretaria del Medio Ambiente de la Ciudad de México (SEDEMA), Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Marko Kaasik
- Institute of Physics, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ravindra Khaiwal
- Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, PGIMER, Chandigarh, India
| | - Jhoon Kim
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Anu Kousa
- Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Jaakko Kukkonen
- Centre for Atmospheric and Climate Physics (CACP) and Centre for Climate Change Research (C3R), University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, UK; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Markku Kulmala
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR/Physics), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Joel Kuula
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Nathalie La Violette
- Direction de la qualité de l'air et du climat, Direction générale du suivi de l'état de l'environnement, Ministère de l'Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques Québec, Canada
| | - Guido Lanzani
- Agenzia Regionale di Protezione dell'Ambiente della Lombardia, Milano, Italy
| | - Xi Liu
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
| | | | - Patrick M Manseau
- Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Canada
| | - Giada Marchegiani
- Agenzia Regionale di Protezione dell'Ambiente del Lazio, Rome, Italy
| | - Brian McDonald
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, USA
| | | | | | - Dennis Mooibroek
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Suman Mor
- Department of Environment Studies, Punjab University, Chandigarh, India
| | - Nicolas Moussiopoulos
- Laboratory of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering, Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Fabio Murena
- Department of Chemical, Material and Production Engineering (DICMAPI), Naples, Italy
| | - Jarkko V Niemi
- Direction de la qualité de l'air et du climat, Direction générale du suivi de l'état de l'environnement, Ministère de l'Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques Québec, Canada
| | - Steffen Noe
- Estonian University of Life Sciences, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Thiago Nogueira
- Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Michael Norman
- Environment and Health Administration, City of Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Tuukka Petäjä
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR/Physics), University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Stuart Piketh
- Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa
| | - Aditi Rathod
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India, India
| | - Ken Reid
- Air Quality and Climate Change, Metro Vancouver Regional District, Burnaby, Canada
| | | | - Olivia Rivera
- Secretaria del Medio Ambiente de la Ciudad de México (SEDEMA), Mexico City, Mexico
| | | | | | - Roberto San José
- Computer Science School, ESMG, Technical University of Madrid (UPM), Madrid, Spain
| | - Odón Sánchez
- Atmospheric Pollution Research Group, Universidad Nacional Tecnológica de Lima Sur, Lima, Peru
| | - Rodrigo J Seguel
- Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | | | - Yushan Su
- Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch, Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks, Toronto, Canada
| | - Nigel Tapper
- School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Australia
| | - Antonio Terrazas
- Secretaria del Medio Ambiente de la Ciudad de México (SEDEMA), Mexico City, Mexico
| | | | - Domenico Toscano
- Department of Chemical, Material and Production Engineering (DICMAPI), Naples, Italy
| | - George Tsegas
- Laboratory of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering, Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Guus J M Velders
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Christos Vlachokostas
- Laboratory of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering, Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | | | - Rajasree Vpm
- Centre for Atmospheric and Climate Physics (CACP) and Centre for Climate Change Research (C3R), University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, UK
| | - Ravi Yadav
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India, India
| | - Rasa Zalakeviciute
- Grupo de Biodiversidad, Medio Ambiente y Salud (BIOMAS), Universidad de Las Americas, Quito, Ecuador
| | - Miguel Zavala
- Molina Center for Energy and the Environment, CA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Flerlage H, Velders GJM, de Boer J. A review of bottom-up and top-down emission estimates of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in different parts of the world. Chemosphere 2021; 283:131208. [PMID: 34153914 DOI: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2021.131208] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2021] [Revised: 06/07/2021] [Accepted: 06/10/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are widespread alternatives for the ozone-depleting substances chlorofluorocarbons and hydrochlorofluorocarbons. They are used mainly as refrigerants or as foam-blowing agents. HFCs do not deplete the ozone layer, but they are very potent greenhouse gases, already contributing to global warming. Since 2019 HFCs are regulated under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, which demands reliable emission estimates to monitor the phase-down. Quantification of emissions is performed with two methods: bottom-up from product inventories or data on chemical sales; or top-down, inferred from atmospheric measurements by inverse modelling or interspecies correlation. Here, we review and compare the two methods and give an overview of HFC emissions from different parts of the world. Emission estimates reported by the different methods vary considerably. HFC emissions of developed countries (Annex I) are reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. These bottom-up estimates add up to only half of global emissions estimated from atmospheric data. Several studies with regional top-down estimates have shown that this gap is not owed to large-scale underreporting of emissions from developed countries, but mostly due to emissions from developing countries (non-Annex I). China accounts for a large fraction of the emissions causing the gap, but not entirely. Bottom-up and top-down estimations of emissions from other developing countries that could identify other large emitters are largely unavailable. Especially South America, West-, Central- and East-Africa, India, the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Australia are not well covered by measurement stations that could provide atmospheric data for top-down estimates.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hannah Flerlage
- Vrije Universiteit, Department of Environment and Health, Faculty of Sciences, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
| | - Guus J M Velders
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, the Netherlands
| | - Jacob de Boer
- Vrije Universiteit, Department of Environment and Health, Faculty of Sciences, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Velders GJM, Willers SM, Wesseling J, den Elshout SV, van der Swaluw E, Mooibroek D, van Ratingen S. Improvements in air quality in the Netherlands during the corona lockdown based on observations and model simulations. Atmos Environ (1994) 2021; 247:118158. [PMID: 36569605 PMCID: PMC9759808 DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.118158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2020] [Revised: 12/04/2020] [Accepted: 12/15/2020] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
The lockdown measures in response to the SARS-CoV-2 virus outbreak in 2020 have resulted in reductions in emissions of air pollutants and corresponding ambient concentrations. In the Netherlands, the most stringent lockdown measures were in effect from March to May 2020. These measures coincided with a period of unusual meteorological conditions with wind from the north-east and clear-sky conditions, which complicates the quantification of the effect of the lockdown measures on the air quality. Here we quantify the lockdown effects on the concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx and NO2), particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and ozone (O3) in the Netherlands, by analyzing observations and simulations with the atmospheric chemistry-transport model EMEP/MSC-W in its EMEP4NL configuration, after eliminating the effects of meteorological conditions during the lockdown. Based on statistical analyses with a Random Forest method, we estimate that the lockdown reduced observed NO2 concentrations by 30% (95% confidence interval 25-35%), 26% (21-32%), and 18% (10-25%) for traffic, urban, and rural background locations, respectively. Slightly smaller reductions of 8-28% are found with the EMEP4NL simulations for urban and regional background locations based on estimates in reductions in economic activity and emissions of traffic and industry in the Netherlands and other European countries. Reductions in observed PM2.5 concentrations of about 20% (10-25%) are found for all locations, which is somewhat larger than the estimates of 5-16% based on the model simulations. A comparison of the calculated NO2 traffic contributions with observations shows a substantial drop of about 35% in traffic contributions during the lockdown period, which is similar to the estimated reductions in mobility data as reported by Apple and Google. Since the largest health effects related to air pollution in the Netherlands are associated with exposure to PM10 and PM2.5, the lockdown measures in spring of 2020 have temporarily improved the air quality in the Netherlands. The concentrations of the most health relevant compounds have only been reduced by about 10-25%.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Guus J M Velders
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720, BA, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, the Netherlands
| | | | - Joost Wesseling
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720, BA, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | | | - Eric van der Swaluw
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720, BA, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Dennis Mooibroek
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720, BA, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Sjoerd van Ratingen
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720, BA, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Lickley M, Solomon S, Fletcher S, Velders GJM, Daniel J, Rigby M, Montzka SA, Kuijpers LJM, Stone K. Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate. Nat Commun 2020; 11:1380. [PMID: 32184388 PMCID: PMC7078219 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15162-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2019] [Accepted: 02/20/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic model for CFC-11, 12, and 113 banks and their emissions, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. We find that bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggested, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). Left unrecovered, these CFC banks could delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO2 emission. Derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, but are much larger than expected, raising questions about its sources. Following international agreements, the use of chlorofluorocarbons in production is supposed to be phased out. Here, the authors present a new estimate of these products already in use and their emissions and show that they are larger than expected and that not recovering these banks leads to a substantial delay in the polar ozone hole recovery.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Megan Lickley
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
| | - Susan Solomon
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA
| | - Sarah Fletcher
- Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 02139-4307, USA
| | - Guus J M Velders
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - John Daniel
- Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations, Boulder, CO, 80305-3328, USA
| | - Matthew Rigby
- School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1QU, UK
| | - Stephen A Montzka
- Global Monitoring Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA
| | | | - Kane Stone
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Fischer PH, Marra M, Ameling CB, Velders GJM, Hoogerbrugge R, de Vries W, Wesseling J, Janssen NAH, Houthuijs D. Particulate air pollution from different sources and mortality in 7.5 million adults - The Dutch Environmental Longitudinal Study (DUELS). Sci Total Environ 2020; 705:135778. [PMID: 31972935 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135778] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2019] [Revised: 11/20/2019] [Accepted: 11/24/2019] [Indexed: 04/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Long-term exposure to particulate air pollution has been associated with mortality in urban cohort studies. Few studies have investigated the association between emission contributions from different particle sources and mortality in large-scale population registries, including non-urban populations. OBJECTIVES The aim of the study was to evaluate the associations between long-term exposure to particulate air pollution from different source categories and non-accidental mortality in the Netherlands based on existing national databases. METHODS We used existing Dutch national databases on mortality, individual characteristics, residence history, neighbourhood characteristics and modelled air pollution concentrations from different sources and air pollution components: particulate matter PM10, primary particulate matter PM10 (PPM10), particulate matter PM2.5, primary particulate matter PM2.5 (PPM2.5), elemental carbon (EC), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) in PM10 (SIA10) or in PM2.5 (SIA2.5). We established a cohort of 7.5 million individuals 30 years or older. We followed the cohort for eight years (2008-2015). We applied Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusting for potential individual and area-specific confounders. RESULTS We found statistically significant associations between total and primary particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), elemental carbon and mortality. Adjustment for nitrogen dioxide did not change the associations. Secondary inorganic aerosol showed less consistent associations. All primary PM sources were associated with mortality, except agricultural emissions and, depending on the statistical model, industrial PM emissions. CONCLUSIONS We could not identify one or more specific source categories of particulate air pollution as main determinants of the mortality effects found in this and in a previous study. This suggests that present policy measures should be focussed on the wider spectrum of air pollution sources instead of on specific sources.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Paul H Fischer
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
| | - Marten Marra
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Caroline B Ameling
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Guus J M Velders
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, the Netherlands
| | - Ronald Hoogerbrugge
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Wilco de Vries
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Joost Wesseling
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Nicole A H Janssen
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Danny Houthuijs
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Fang X, Ravishankara AR, Velders GJM, Molina MJ, Su S, Zhang J, Hu J, Prinn RG. Changes in Emissions of Ozone-Depleting Substances from China Due to Implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Environ Sci Technol 2018; 52:11359-11366. [PMID: 30130965 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.8b01280] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
The ozone layer depletion and its recovery, as well as the climate influence of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and their substitutes that influence climate, are of interest to both the scientific community and the public. Here we report on the emissions of ODSs and their substitute from China, which is currently the largest consumer (and emitter) of these substances. We provide, for the first time, comprehensive information on ODSs and replacement hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions in China starting from 1980 based on reported production and usage. We also assess the impacts (and costs) of controls on ODS consumption and emissions on the ozone layer (in terms of CFC-11-equivalent) and climate (in CO2-equivalent). In addition, we show that while China's future ODS emissions are likely to be defined as long as there is full compliance with the Montreal Protocol; its HFC emissions through 2050 are very uncertain. Our findings imply that HFC controls over the next decades that are more stringent than those under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol would be beneficial in mitigating global climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Xuekun Fang
- Center for Global Change Science , Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Cambridge , Massachusetts 02139 , United States
- State Key Joint Laboratory for Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering , Peking University , Beijing 100871 , China
| | - A R Ravishankara
- Department of Chemistry and Department of Atmospheric Science , Colorado State University , Fort Collins , Colorado 80523 , United States
| | - Guus J M Velders
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) , P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven , The Netherlands
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU) , Utrecht University , 3508 TC Utrecht , The Netherlands
| | - Mario J Molina
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry , University of California, San Diego , La Jolla , California 92093 , United States
| | - Shenshen Su
- State Key Joint Laboratory for Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering , Peking University , Beijing 100871 , China
- Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute , Beijing 100120 , China
| | - Jianbo Zhang
- State Key Joint Laboratory for Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering , Peking University , Beijing 100871 , China
| | - Jianxin Hu
- State Key Joint Laboratory for Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering , Peking University , Beijing 100871 , China
| | - Ronald G Prinn
- Center for Global Change Science , Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Cambridge , Massachusetts 02139 , United States
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Liang Q, Chipperfield MP, Fleming EL, Abraham NL, Braesicke P, Burkholder JB, Daniel JS, Dhomse S, Fraser PJ, Hardiman SC, Jackman CH, Kinnison DE, Krummel PB, Montzka SA, Morgenstern O, McCulloch A, Mühle J, Newman PA, Orkin VL, Pitari G, Prinn RG, Rigby M, Rozanov E, Stenke A, Tummon F, Velders GJM, Visioni D, Weiss RF. Deriving Global OH Abundance and Atmospheric Lifetimes for Long-Lived Gases: A Search for CH 3CCl 3 Alternatives. J Geophys Res Atmos 2017; 122:11914-11933. [PMID: 38515436 PMCID: PMC10956888 DOI: 10.1002/2017jd026926] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/23/2024]
Abstract
An accurate estimate of global hydroxyl radical (OH) abundance is important for projections of air quality, climate, and stratospheric ozone recovery. As the atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) (MCF), the commonly used OH reference gas, approaches zero, it is important to find alternative approaches to infer atmospheric OH abundance and variability. The lack of global bottom-up emission inventories is the primary obstacle in choosing a MCF alternative. We illustrate that global emissions of long-lived trace gases can be inferred from their observed mixing ratio differences between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), given realistic estimates of their NH-SH exchange time, the emission partitioning between the two hemispheres, and the NH versus SH OH abundance ratio. Using the observed long-term trend and emissions derived from the measured hemispheric gradient, the combination of HFC-32 (CH2F2), HFC-134a (CH2FCF3, HFC-152a (CH3CHF2), and HCFC-22 (CHClF2), instead of a single gas, will be useful as a MCF alternative to infer global and hemispheric OH abundance and trace gas lifetimes. The primary assumption on which this multispecies approach relies is that the OH lifetimes can be estimated by scaling the thermal reaction rates of a reference gas at 272 K on global and hemispheric scales. Thus, the derived hemispheric and global OH estimates are forced to reconcile the observed trends and gradient for all four compounds simultaneously. However, currently, observations of these gases from the surface networks do not provide more accurate OH abundance estimate than that from MCF.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Qing Liang
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
- Universities Space Research Association, GESTAR, Columbia, Maryland, USA
| | - Martyn P Chipperfield
- National Centre for Earth Observation, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Eric L Fleming
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc, Lanham, Maryland, USA
| | - N Luke Abraham
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Leeds, UK
- Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - James B Burkholder
- Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - John S Daniel
- Chemical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Sandip Dhomse
- National Centre for Earth Observation, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Paul J Fraser
- Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Vic, Australia
| | | | - Charles H Jackman
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Paul B Krummel
- Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Vic, Australia
| | - Stephen A Montzka
- Global Monitoring Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Olaf Morgenstern
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
| | | | - Jens Mühle
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Paul A Newman
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Vladimir L Orkin
- National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, Maryland, USA
| | - Giovanni Pitari
- Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, Università dell'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
| | - Ronald G Prinn
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Matthew Rigby
- School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Eugene Rozanov
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Centre, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
| | - Andrea Stenke
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Fiona Tummon
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Guus J M Velders
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, Netherlands
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Daniele Visioni
- Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, Università dell'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
| | - Ray F Weiss
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Fang X, Velders GJM, Ravishankara AR, Molina MJ, Hu J, Prinn RG. Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) Emissions in China: An Inventory for 2005-2013 and Projections to 2050. Environ Sci Technol 2016; 50:2027-2034. [PMID: 26731627 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b04376] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Many hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) that are widely used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (now regulated under the Montreal Protocol) are very potent greenhouse gases (GHGs). China's past and future HFC emissions are of great interest because China has emerged as a major producer and consumer of HFCs. Here, we present for the first time a comprehensive inventory estimate of China's HFC emissions during 2005-2013. Results show a rapid increase in HFC production, consumption, and emissions in China during the period and that the emissions of HFC with a relatively high global warming potential (GWP) grew faster than those with a relatively low GWP. The proportions of China's historical HFC CO2-equivalent emissions to China's CO2 emissions or global HFC CO2-equivalent emissions increased rapidly during 2005-2013. Using the "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario, in which HFCs are used to replace a significant fraction of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) in China (to date, there are no regulations on HFC uses in China), emissions of HFCs are projected to be significant components of China's and global future GHG emissions. However, potentials do exist for minimizing China's HFC emissions (for example, if regulations on HFC uses are established in China). Our findings on China's historical and projected HFC emission trajectories could also apply to other developing countries, with important implications for mitigating global GHG emissions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Xuekun Fang
- State Key Joint Laboratory for Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University , Beijing 100871, China
- Center for Global Change Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology , 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
| | - Guus J M Velders
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) , P.O. Box 1, Bilthoven 3720 BA, The Netherlands
| | - A R Ravishankara
- Department of Chemistry and Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University , Fort Collins, Colorado 80523, United States
| | - Mario J Molina
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of California, San Diego , La Jolla, California 92093, United States
| | - Jianxin Hu
- State Key Joint Laboratory for Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University , Beijing 100871, China
| | - Ronald G Prinn
- Center for Global Change Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology , 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Solomon KR, Velders GJM, Wilson SR, Madronich S, Longstreth J, Aucamp PJ, Bornman JF. Sources, fates, toxicity, and risks of trifluoroacetic acid and its salts: Relevance to substances regulated under the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols. J Toxicol Environ Health B Crit Rev 2016; 19:289-304. [PMID: 27351319 DOI: 10.1080/10937404.2016.1175981] [Citation(s) in RCA: 75] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) is a breakdown product of several hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC), regulated under the Montreal Protocol (MP), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) used mainly as refrigerants. Trifluoroacetic acid is (1) produced naturally and synthetically, (2) used in the chemical industry, and (3) a potential environmental breakdown product of a large number (>1 million) chemicals, including pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and polymers. The contribution of these chemicals to global amounts of TFA is uncertain, in contrast to that from HCFC and HFC regulated under the MP. TFA salts are stable in the environment and accumulate in terminal sinks such as playas, salt lakes, and oceans, where the only process for loss of water is evaporation. Total contribution to existing amounts of TFA in the oceans as a result of the continued use of HCFCs, HFCs, and hydrofluoroolefines (HFOs) up to 2050 is estimated to be a small fraction (<7.5%) of the approximately 0.2 μg acid equivalents/L estimated to be present at the start of the millennium. As an acid or as a salt TFA is low to moderately toxic to a range of organisms. Based on current projections of future use of HCFCs and HFCs, the amount of TFA formed in the troposphere from substances regulated under the MP is too small to be a risk to the health of humans and environment. However, the formation of TFA derived from degradation of HCFC and HFC warrants continued attention, in part because of a long environmental lifetime and due many other potential but highly uncertain sources.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Keith R Solomon
- a Centre for Toxicology, School of Environmental Sciences , University of Guelph , Guelph , Ontario , Canada
| | - Guus J M Velders
- b National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) , Bilthoven , The Netherlands
| | - Stephen R Wilson
- c Centre for Atmospheric Chemistry , University of Wollongong , Wollongong , NSW , Australia
| | - Sasha Madronich
- d National Center for Atmospheric Research , Boulder , Colorado , USA
| | - Janice Longstreth
- e The Institute for Global Risk Research , Bethesda , Maryland , USA
| | - Pieter J Aucamp
- f Ptersa Environmental Consultants , Faerie Glen , South Africa
| | - Janet F Bornman
- g International Institute of Agri-Food Security, Curtin University , Perth , Western Australia
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Chipperfield MP, Dhomse SS, Feng W, McKenzie RL, Velders GJM, Pyle JA. Quantifying the ozone and ultraviolet benefits already achieved by the Montreal Protocol. Nat Commun 2015; 6:7233. [PMID: 26011106 PMCID: PMC4455099 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms8233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 80] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2014] [Accepted: 04/21/2015] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Chlorine- and bromine-containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol. In consequence, atmospheric equivalent chlorine peaked in 1993 and has been declining slowly since then. Consistent with this, models project a gradual increase in stratospheric ozone with the Antarctic ozone hole expected to disappear by ∼2050. However, we show that by 2013 the Montreal Protocol had already achieved significant benefits for the ozone layer. Using a 3D atmospheric chemistry transport model, we demonstrate that much larger ozone depletion than observed has been avoided by the protocol, with beneficial impacts on surface ultraviolet. A deep Arctic ozone hole, with column values <120 DU, would have occurred given meteorological conditions in 2011. The Antarctic ozone hole would have grown in size by 40% by 2013, with enhanced loss at subpolar latitudes. The decline over northern hemisphere middle latitudes would have continued, more than doubling to ∼15% by 2013. Ozone-depleting substances have been controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol, ensuring atmospheric concentrations are now in decline. Here, the authors use a 3D model and suggest that these controls have already had significant benefits, with much larger ozone depletion than previously thought avoided by the protocol.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- M P Chipperfield
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.,National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO), University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - S S Dhomse
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.,National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO), University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | - W Feng
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.,National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), UK
| | - R L McKenzie
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Lauder Private Bag 50061, New Zealand
| | - G J M Velders
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, PO Box 1, Bilthoven 3720 BA, The Netherlands
| | - J A Pyle
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), UK.,Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1EW, UK
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Velders GJM, Ravishankara AR, Miller MK, Molina MJ, Alcamo J, Daniel JS, Fahey DW, Montzka SA, Reimann S. Climate change. Preserving Montreal Protocol climate benefits by limiting HFCs. Science 2012; 335:922-3. [PMID: 22362993 DOI: 10.1126/science.1216414] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Guus J M Velders
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
14
|
Struijs J, van Dijk A, Slaper H, van Wijnen HJ, Velders GJM, Chaplin G, Huijbregts MAJ. Spatial- and time-explicit human damage modeling of ozone depleting substances in life cycle impact assessment. Environ Sci Technol 2010; 44:204-209. [PMID: 19958022 DOI: 10.1021/es9017865] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer is mainly caused by emissions of persistent halocarbons of anthropogenic origin. The resulting increase of solar ultraviolet radiation at the Earth's surface is associated with increased exposure of humans and increased human health damage. Here we assessed the change in human health damage caused by three types of skin cancer and cataract in terms of (healthy) years of life lost per kiloton emission reduction of an ozone-depleting substance (ODS). This so-called characterization factor is used in Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs). Characterization factors are provided for the emissions of five chlorofluorocarbons, three hydrochlorofluorocarbons, three (bromine-containing) halons, carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform, and anthropogenic emissions of methyl bromide. We employed dynamic calculations on a global scale for this purpose, taking physical and social geographic data into account such as skin tones, population density, average age, and life expectancy. When emission rates of all ODSs in 2007 are multiplied by our characterization factors, the resulting number of years of life lost may be a factor of 5 higher than reported previously. This increase is merely explained through the global demographic development until 2100 we took into account.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jaap Struijs
- Laboratory for Ecological Risk Assessment, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
15
|
Velders GJM, Fahey DW, Daniel JS, McFarland M, Andersen SO. The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2009; 106:10949-54. [PMID: 19549868 PMCID: PMC2700150 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0902817106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 94] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2009] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades in response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal Protocol. The projected increases result primarily from sustained growth in demand for refrigeration, air-conditioning (AC) and insulating foam products in developing countries assuming no new regulation of HFC consumption or emissions. New HFC scenarios are presented based on current hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) consumption in leading applications, patterns of replacements of HCFCs by HFCs in developed countries, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Global HFC emissions significantly exceed previous estimates after 2025 with developing country emissions as much as 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050. Global HFC emissions in 2050 are equivalent to 9-19% (CO(2)-eq. basis) of projected global CO(2) emissions in business-as-usual scenarios and contribute a radiative forcing equivalent to that from 6-13 years of CO(2) emissions near 2050. This percentage increases to 28-45% compared with projected CO(2) emissions in a 450-ppm CO(2) stabilization scenario. In a hypothetical scenario based on a global cap followed by 4% annual reductions in consumption, HFC radiative forcing is shown to peak and begin to decline before 2050.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Guus J M Velders
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
| | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
16
|
Abstract
The 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer is a landmark agreement that has successfully reduced the global production, consumption, and emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). ODSs are also greenhouse gases that contribute to the radiative forcing of climate change. Using historical ODSs emissions and scenarios of potential emissions, we show that the ODS contribution to radiative forcing most likely would have been much larger if the ODS link to stratospheric ozone depletion had not been recognized in 1974 and followed by a series of regulations. The climate protection already achieved by the Montreal Protocol alone is far larger than the reduction target of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Additional climate benefits that are significant compared with the Kyoto Protocol reduction target could be achieved by actions under the Montreal Protocol, by managing the emissions of substitute fluorocarbon gases and/or implementing alternative gases with lower global warming potentials.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Guus J M Velders
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
| | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
17
|
Velders GJM, Gillet JM, Becker PJ, Feil D. Electron density analysis of nonlinear optical materials: an ab initio study of different conformations of benzene derivatives. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2002. [DOI: 10.1021/j100175a035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
|
18
|
Velders GJM, Feil D. Effect of electron correlation on the electron density distribution and (hyper)polarizability of molecules. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2002. [DOI: 10.1021/j100205a028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
|
19
|
Velders GJM, Granier C, Portmann RW, Pfeilsticker K, Wenig M, Wagner T, Platt U, Richter A, Burrows JP. Global tropospheric NO2column distributions: Comparing three-dimensional model calculations with GOME measurements. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2001. [DOI: 10.1029/2000jd900762] [Citation(s) in RCA: 81] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
20
|
|
21
|
Velders GJM, Feil D. Structure and electron density distribution of the nitrate ion and urea molecule upon protonation. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 1992. [DOI: 10.1007/bf01113208] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
|