The dynamics ofWuchereria bancroftiinfection: a model-based analysis of longitudinal data from Pondicherry, India

Heterogeneity in elimination efforts could increase the risk of resurgence of lymphatic filariasis in Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Progress in lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination is spatially heterogeneous in many endemic countries, which may lead to resurgence in areas that have achieved elimination. Understanding the drivers and consequences of such heterogeneity could help inform strategies to reach global LF elimination goals by 2030. This study assesses whether differences in age-specific compliance with mass drug administration (MDA) could explain LF prevalence patterns in southeastern Madagascar and explores how spatial heterogeneity in prevalence and age-specific MDA compliance may affect the risk of LF resurgence after transmission interruption.

METHODOLOGY

We used LYMFASIM model with parameters in line with the context of southeastern Madagascar and explored a wide range of scenarios with different MDA compliance for adults and children (40-100%) to estimate the proportion of elimination, non-elimination and resurgence events associated with each scenario. Finally, we evaluated the risk of resurgence associated with different levels of migration (2-6%) from surrounding districts combined with varying levels of LF microfilaria (mf) prevalence (0-24%) during that same study period.

RESULTS

Differences in MDA compliance between adults and children better explained the observed heterogeneity in LF prevalence for these age groups than differences in exposure alone. The risk of resurgence associated with differences in MDA compliance scenarios ranged from 0 to 19% and was highest when compliance was high for children (e.g. 90%) and low for adults (e.g. 50%). The risk of resurgence associated with migration was generally higher, exceeding 60% risk for all the migration levels explored (2-6% per year) when mf prevalence in the source districts was between 9% and 20%.

CONCLUSION

Gaps in the implementation of LF elimination programme can increase the risk of resurgence and undermine elimination efforts. In Madagascar, districts that have not attained elimination pose a significant risk for those that have achieved it. More research is needed to help guide LF elimination programme on the optimal strategies for surveillance and control that maximize the chances to sustain elimination and avoid resurgence.

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging.

METHODS

We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment.

RESULTS

Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.

Predictive Value of Microfilariae-Based Stop-MDA Thresholds After Triple Drug Therapy With IDA Against Lymphatic Filariasis in Treatment-Naive Indian Settings

Mass drug administration (MDA) of antifilarial drugs is the main strategy for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). Recent clinical trials indicated that the triple-drug therapy with ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole (IDA) is much more effective against LF than the widely used two-drug combinations (albendazole plus either ivermectin or diethylcarbamazine). For IDA-based MDA, the stop-MDA decision is made based on microfilariae (mf) prevalence in adults. In this study, we assess how the probability of eventually reaching elimination of transmission depends on the critical threshold used in transmission assessment surveys (TAS-es) to define whether transmission was successfully suppressed and triple-drug MDA can be stopped. This analysis focuses on treatment-naive Indian settings. We do this for a range of epidemiological and programmatic contexts, using the established LYMFASIM model for transmission and control of LF. Based on our simulations, a single TAS, one year after the last MDA round, provides limited predictive value of having achieved suppressed transmission, while a higher MDA coverage increases elimination probability, thus leading to a higher predictive value. Every additional TAS, conditional on previous TAS-es being passed with the same threshold, further improves the predictive value for low values of stop-MDA thresholds. An mf prevalence threshold of 0.5% corresponding to TAS-3 results in ≥95% predictive value even when the MDA coverage is relatively low.

Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030.

METHODS

Here we used a novel approach to combine historical geo-spatial disease prevalence maps of LF in Ethiopia with 3 contemporary disease transmission models to project trends in infection under different intervention scenarios at subnational level.

RESULTS

Our findings show that local context, particularly the coverage of interventions, is an important determinant for the success of control and elimination programmes. Furthermore, although current strategies seem sufficient to achieve LF elimination by 2030, some areas may benefit from the implementation of alternative strategies, such as using enhanced coverage or increased frequency, to accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of geospatial disease prevalence maps of LF with transmission models and intervention histories enables the projection of trends in infection at the subnational level under different control scenarios in Ethiopia. This approach, which adapts transmission models to local settings, may be useful to inform the design of optimal interventions at the subnational level in other LF endemic regions.

How Does the Proportion of Never Treatment Influence the Success of Mass Drug Administration Programs for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis?

BACKGROUND

Mass drug administration (MDA) is the cornerstone for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). The proportion of the population that is never treated (NT) is a crucial determinant of whether this goal is achieved within reasonable time frames.

METHODS

Using 2 individual-based stochastic LF transmission models, we assess the maximum permissible level of NT for which the 1% microfilaremia (mf) prevalence threshold can be achieved (with 90% probability) within 10 years under different scenarios of annual MDA coverage, drug combination and transmission setting.

RESULTS

For Anopheles-transmission settings, we find that treating 80% of the eligible population annually with ivermectin + albendazole (IA) can achieve the 1% mf prevalence threshold within 10 years of annual treatment when baseline mf prevalence is 10%, as long as NT <10%. Higher proportions of NT are acceptable when more efficacious treatment regimens are used. For Culex-transmission settings with a low (5%) baseline mf prevalence and diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) or ivermectin + diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (IDA) treatment, elimination can be reached if treatment coverage among eligibles is 80% or higher. For 10% baseline mf prevalence, the target can be achieved when the annual coverage is 80% and NT ≤15%. Higher infection prevalence or levels of NT would make achieving the target more difficult.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of people never treated in MDA programmes for LF can strongly influence the achievement of elimination and the impact of NT is greater in high transmission areas. This study provides a starting point for further development of criteria for the evaluation of NT.

Comparing antigenaemia- and microfilaraemia as criteria for stopping decisions in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in Africa

BACKGROUND

Mass drug administration (MDA) is the main strategy towards lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination. Progress is monitored by assessing microfilaraemia (Mf) or circulating filarial antigenaemia (CFA) prevalence, the latter being more practical for field surveys. The current criterion for stopping MDA requires <2% CFA prevalence in 6- to 7-year olds, but this criterion is not evidence-based. We used mathematical modelling to investigate the validity of different thresholds regarding testing method and age group for African MDA programmes using ivermectin plus albendazole.

METHODOLGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We verified that our model captures observed patterns in Mf and CFA prevalence during annual MDA, assuming that CFA tests are positive if at least one adult worm is present. We then assessed how well elimination can be predicted from CFA prevalence in 6-7-year-old children or from Mf or CFA prevalence in the 5+ or 15+ population, and determined safe (>95% positive predictive value) thresholds for stopping MDA. The model captured trends in Mf and CFA prevalences reasonably well. Elimination cannot be predicted with sufficient certainty from CFA prevalence in 6-7-year olds. Resurgence may still occur if all children are antigen-negative, irrespective of the number tested. Mf-based criteria also show unfavourable results (PPV <95% or unpractically low threshold). CFA prevalences in the 5+ or 15+ population are the best predictors, and post-MDA threshold values for stopping MDA can be as high as 10% for 15+. These thresholds are robust for various alternative assumptions regarding baseline endemicity, biological parameters and sampling strategies.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

For African areas with moderate to high pre-treatment Mf prevalence that have had 6 or more rounds of annual ivermectin/albendazole MDA with adequate coverage, we recommend to adopt a CFA threshold prevalence of 10% in adults (15+) for stopping MDA. This could be combined with Mf testing of CFA positives to ensure absence of a significant Mf reservoir for transmission.

The Domestic Dog as a Laboratory Host for Brugia malayi

Of the three nematodes responsible for lymphatic filariasis in humans, only Brugia malayi is actively maintained in research settings owing to its viability in small animal hosts, principal among which is the domestic cat. While the microfilaremic feline host is necessary for propagation of parasites on any significant scale, this system is plagued by a number of challenges not as pronounced in canine filarial models. For this reason, we investigated the capacity in which dogs may serve as competent laboratory hosts for B. malayi. We infected a total of 20 dogs by subcutaneous injection of 500 B. malayi third-stage larvae (L3) in either a single (n = 10) or repeated infection events (125 L3 per week for four weeks; n = 10). Within each group, half of the individuals were injected in the inguinal region and half in the dorsum of the hind paw. To track the course of microfilaremia in this host, blood samples were examined by microscopy biweekly for two years following infection. Additionally, to identify cellular responses with potential value as predictors of patency, we measured peripheral blood leukocyte counts for the first year of infection. A total of 10 of 20 dogs developed detectable microfilaremia. Peak microfilaria density varied but attained levels useful for parasite propagation (median = 1933 mL⁻¹; range: 33–9950 mL⁻¹). Nine of these dogs remained patent at 104 weeks. A two-way ANOVA revealed no significant differences between infection groups in lifetime microfilaria production (p = 0.42), nor did regression analysis reveal any likely predictive relationships to leukocyte values. The results of this study demonstrate the competence of the dog as a host for B. malayi and its potential to serve in the laboratory role currently provided by the cat, while also clarifying the potential for zoonosis in filariasis-endemic regions.

The Course of Brugia malayi Microfilaremia in Experimentally Infected Cats

As one of the causative agents of lymphatic filariasis in humans, Brugia malayi has been established as the laboratory model of choice for studying this infection owing to its viability in small animal hosts, with the domestic cat being significant among these. The usefulness of individual feline infections is highly dependent on the levels of circulating microfilariae in the blood; thus, characterizing the course of microfilaremia benefits our understanding of this model. In B. malayi-endemic regions, cats are also known reservoirs of infection, and describing microfilaremia in a controlled setting may improve transmission modeling. We followed the course of B. malayi infection in 10 experimentally infected cats from inoculation to ultimate resolution. Seven cats developed patency, with a peak microfilaria concentration of 6525/mL. In addition, to identify cellular responses with potential value as predictors of patency, we measured the peripheral blood leukocyte counts during the first 8 months of infection and tested for correlations with lifelong microfilaria production. No strong relationships were observed, though cell values did appear to shift with the maturation phases of the parasite. The data we present reflect the course of microfilaremia in an important laboratory model under controlled conditions.

Risk of Recrudescence of Lymphatic Filariasis after Post-MDA Surveillance in Brugia malayi Endemic Belitung District, Indonesia

Belitung district in Bangka-Belitung Province, Indonesia with a population of 0.27 million is endemic for Brugia malayi and 5 rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) were completed by 2010. Based on the results of 3 transmission assessment surveys (TAS), the district is declared as achieving elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) in 2017. The findings of an independent survey conducted by the National Institute of Health Research and Development (NIHRD) in the same year showed microfilaria (Mf) prevalence of 1.3% in this district. In 2019, NIHRD conducted microfilaria survey in 2 villages in Belitung district. Screening of 311 and 360 individuals in Lasar and Suak Gual villages showed Mf prevalence of 5.1% and 2.2% with mean Mf density of 120 and 354 mf/ml in the respective villages. Mf prevalence was significantly higher among farmers and fishermen compared to others and the gender specific difference was not significant. The results of a questionnaire based interview showed that 62.4% of the respondents reported to have participated in MDA in Lasar while it was 57.7% in Suak Gual village. About 42% of the Mf positive cases did not participate in MDA. Environmental surveys identified many swampy areas supporting the breeding of Mansonia vector species. Persistence of infection is evident and in the event of successful TAS3 it is necessary to monitor the situation and plan for focal MDA. Appropriate surveillance strategies including xenomonitoring in post-MDA situations need to be developed to prevent resurgence of infection. Possible role of animal reservoirs is discussed.

Potential strategies for strengthening surveillance of lymphatic filariasis in American Samoa after mass drug administration: Reducing 'number needed to test' by targeting older age groups, hotspots, and household members of infected persons

Under the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF), American Samoa conducted mass drug administration (MDA) from 2000-2006. Despite passing Transmission Assessment Surveys (TAS) in 2011/2012 and 2015, American Samoa failed TAS-3 in 2016, with antigen (Ag) prevalence of 0.7% (95%CI 0.3-1.8%) in 6-7 year-olds. A 2016 community survey (Ag prevalence 6.2% (95%CI 4.4-8.5%) in age ≥8 years) confirmed resurgence. Using data from the 2016 survey, this study aims to i) investigate antibody prevalence in TAS-3 and the community survey, ii) identify risk factors associated with being seropositive for Ag and anti-filarial antibodies, and iii) compare the efficiency of different sampling strategies for identifying seropositive persons in the post-MDA setting. Antibody prevalence in TAS-3 (n = 1143) were 1.6% for Bm14 (95%CI 0.9-2.9%), 7.9% for Wb123 (95%CI 6.4-9.6%), and 20.2% for Bm33 (95%CI 16.7-24.3%); and in the community survey (n = 2507), 13.9% for Bm14 (95%CI 11.2-17.2%), 27.9% for Wb123 (95%CI 24.6-31.4%), and 47.3% for Bm33 (95%CI 42.1-52.6%). Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for being seropositive for Ag and antibodies. Higher Ag prevalence was found in males (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.01), age ≥18 years (aOR 2.18), residents of Fagali'i (aOR 15.81), and outdoor workers (aOR 2.61). Ag prevalence was 20.7% (95%CI 9.7-53.5%) in households of Ag-positive children identified in TAS-3. We used NNTestav (average number needed to test to identify one positive) to compare the efficiency of the following strategies for identifying persons who were seropositive for Ag and each antibody: i) TAS of 6-7 year-old children, ii) population representative surveys of older age groups, and iii) targeted surveillance of subpopulations at higher risk of being seropositive (older ages, householders of Ag-positive TAS children, and known hotspots). For Ag, NNTestav ranged from 142.5 for TAS, to <5 for households of index children. NNTestav was lower in older ages, and highest for Ag, followed by Bm14, Wb123 and Bm33 antibodies. We propose a multi-stage surveillance strategy, starting with population-representative sampling (e.g. TAS or population representative survey of older ages), followed by strategies that target subpopulations and/or locations with low NNTestav. This approach could potentially improve the efficiency of identifying remaining infected persons and residual hotspots. Surveillance programs should also explore the utility of antibodies as indicators of transmission.

Defining a prevalence level to describe the elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) transmission and designing monitoring & evaluating (M&E) programmes post the cessation of mass drug administration (MDA)

The global decline in prevalence of lymphatic filariasis has been one of the major successes of the WHO's NTD programme. The recommended strategy of intensive, community-wide mass drug administration, aims to break localised transmission by either reducing the prevalence of microfilaria positive infections to below 1%, or antigen positive infections to below 2%. After the threshold is reached, and mass drug administration is stopped, geographically defined evaluation units must pass Transmission Assessment Surveys to demonstrate that transmission has been interrupted. In this study, we use an empirically parameterised stochastic transmission model to investigate the appropriateness of 1% microfilaria-positive prevalence as a stopping threshold, and statistically evaluate how well various monitoring prevalence-thresholds predict elimination or disease resurgence in the future by calculating their predictive value. Our results support the 1% filaremia prevalence target as appropriate stopping criteria. However, because at low prevalence-levels random events dominate the transmission dynamics, we find single prevalence measurements have poor predictive power for predicting resurgence, which suggests alternative criteria for restarting MDA may be beneficial.

Are Alternative Strategies Required to Accelerate the Global Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis? Insights From Mathematical Models

Background

With the 2020 target year for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) approaching, there is an urgent need to assess how long mass drug administration (MDA) programs with annual ivermectin + albendazole (IA) or diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) would still have to be continued, and how elimination can be accelerated. We addressed this using mathematical modeling.

Methods

We used 3 structurally different mathematical models for LF transmission (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, TRANSFIL) to simulate trends in microfilariae (mf) prevalence for a range of endemic settings, both for the current annual MDA strategy and alternative strategies, assessing the required duration to bring mf prevalence below the critical threshold of 1%.

Results

Three annual MDA rounds with IA or DA and good coverage (≥65%) are sufficient to reach the threshold in settings that are currently at mf prevalence <4%, but the required duration increases with increasing mf prevalence. Switching to biannual MDA or employing triple-drug therapy (ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole [IDA]) could reduce program duration by about one-third. Optimization of coverage reduces the time to elimination and is particularly important for settings with a history of poorly implemented MDA (low coverage, high systematic noncompliance).

Conclusions

Modeling suggests that, in several settings, current annual MDA strategies will be insufficient to achieve the 2020 LF elimination targets, and programs could consider policy adjustment to accelerate, guided by recent monitoring and evaluation data. Biannual treatment and IDA hold promise in reducing program duration, provided that coverage is good, but their efficacy remains to be confirmed by more extensive field studies.

The roadmap towards elimination of lymphatic filariasis by 2030: insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis was launched in 2000 to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem by 1) interrupting transmission through mass drug administration (MDA) and 2) offering basic care to those suffering from lymphoedema or hydrocele due to the infection. Although impressive progress has been made, the initial target year of 2020 will not be met everywhere. The World Health Organization recently proposed 2030 as the new target year for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem. In this letter, LF modelers of the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) Modelling Consortium reflect on the proposed targets for 2030 from a quantitative perspective. While elimination as a public health problem seems technically and operationally feasible, it is uncertain whether this will eventually also lead to complete elimination of transmission. The risk of resurgence needs to be mitigated by strong surveillance after stopping interventions and sometimes perhaps additional interventions.

Evaluating the Evidence for Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination

In the global drive for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF), 15 countries have achieved validation of elimination as a public health problem (EPHP). Recent empirical evidence has demonstrated that EPHP does not always lead to elimination of transmission (EOT). Here we show how the probability of elimination explicitly depends on key biological parameters, many of which have been poorly characterized, leading to a poor evidence base for the elimination threshold. As more countries progress towards EPHP it is essential that this process is well-informed, as prematurely halting treatment and surveillance programs could pose a serious threat to global progress. We highlight that refinement of the weak empirical evidence base is vital to understand drivers of elimination and inform long-term policy.

Quantifying the value of surveillance data for improving model predictions of lymphatic filariasis elimination

Background

Mathematical models are increasingly being used to evaluate strategies aiming to achieve the control or elimination of parasitic diseases. Recently, owing to growing realization that process-oriented models are useful for ecological forecasts only if the biological processes are well defined, attention has focused on data assimilation as a means to improve the predictive performance of these models.

Methodology and principal findings

We report on the development of an analytical framework to quantify the relative values of various longitudinal infection surveillance data collected in field sites undergoing mass drug administrations (MDAs) for calibrating three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and for improving their predictions of the required durations of drug interventions to achieve parasite elimination in endemic populations. The relative information contribution of site-specific data collected at the time points proposed by the WHO monitoring framework was evaluated using model-data updating procedures, and via calculations of the Shannon information index and weighted variances from the probability distributions of the estimated timelines to parasite extinction made by each model. Results show that data-informed models provided more precise forecasts of elimination timelines in each site compared to model-only simulations. Data streams that included year 5 post-MDA microfilariae (mf) survey data, however, reduced each model’s uncertainty most compared to data streams containing only baseline and/or post-MDA 3 or longer-term mf survey data irrespective of MDA coverage, suggesting that data up to this monitoring point may be optimal for informing the present LF models. We show that the improvements observed in the predictive performance of the best data-informed models may be a function of temporal changes in inter-parameter interactions. Such best data-informed models may also produce more accurate predictions of the durations of drug interventions required to achieve parasite elimination.

Significance

Knowledge of relative information contributions of model only versus data-informed models is valuable for improving the usefulness of LF model predictions in management decision making, learning system dynamics, and for supporting the design of parasite monitoring programmes. The present results further pinpoint the crucial need for longitudinal infection surveillance data for enhancing the precision and accuracy of model predictions of the intervention durations required to achieve parasite elimination in an endemic location.

Although parasite transmission models offer powerful tools for predicting the impacts of interventions, there is growing realization that these models can be useful for this purpose only if their governing biological processes are well defined. Recently, model-data assimilation has been applied to address this problem and improve the performance of process-oriented models for ecological forecasting. Here, we developed an analytical framework that allowed the sequential coupling of the three existing lymphatic filariasis (LF) models with longitudinal infection monitoring data collected in field sites undergoing mass drug administrations (MDAs) to examine the relative value of such data for parameterizing these models and for improving their predictions of the required durations of drug interventions to break parasite transmission. We found that data-informed models provided more precise and reliable forecasts of elimination timelines in the study sites compared to model-only predictions, and that data collected up to 5 years post-MDA reduced each model’s predictive uncertainty most. We also found that this improved performance may be intriguingly related to temporal changes in system dynamics. Our results underscore the significance of sequential model-data fusion for enhancing the understanding of LF transmission dynamics, design of surveillance, and generation of reliable model predictions for management decision making.

Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework

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No single mathematical model captures all features of parasite transmission dynamics.

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Multi-model ensemble modelling can overcome biases of single models.

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A multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis models is proposed and evaluated.

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The multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models in predicting infection.

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The ensemble approach may improve use of models to inform disease control policy.

Mathematical models of parasite transmission provide powerful tools for assessing the impacts of interventions. Owing to complexity and uncertainty, no single model may capture all features of transmission and elimination dynamics. Multi-model ensemble modelling offers a framework to help overcome biases of single models. We report on the development of a first multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and evaluate its predictive performance in comparison with that of the constituents using calibration and validation data from three case study sites, one each from the three major LF endemic regions: Africa, Southeast Asia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). We assessed the performance of the respective models for predicting the outcomes of annual MDA strategies for various baseline scenarios thought to exemplify the current endemic conditions in the three regions. The results show that the constructed multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models when evaluated across all sites. Single models that best fitted calibration data tended to do less well in simulating the out-of-sample, or validation, intervention data. Scenario modelling results demonstrate that the multi-model ensemble is able to compensate for variance between single models in order to produce more plausible predictions of intervention impacts. Our results highlight the value of an ensemble approach to modelling parasite control dynamics. However, its optimal use will require further methodological improvements as well as consideration of the organizational mechanisms required to ensure that modelling results and data are shared effectively between all stakeholders.

Measuring and modelling the effects of systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration

It is well understood that the success or failure of a mass drug administration campaign critically depends on the level of coverage achieved. To that end coverage levels are often closely scrutinised during campaigns and the response to underperforming campaigns is to attempt to improve coverage. Modelling work has indicated, however, that the quality of the coverage achieved may also have a significant impact on the outcome. If the coverage achieved is likely to miss similar people every round then this can have a serious detrimental effect on the campaign outcome. We begin by reviewing the current modelling descriptions of this effect and introduce a new modelling framework that can be used to simulate a given level of systematic non-adherence. We formalise the likelihood that people may miss several rounds of treatment using the correlation in the attendance of different rounds. Using two very simplified models of the infection of helminths and non-helminths, respectively, we demonstrate that the modelling description used and the correlation included between treatment rounds can have a profound effect on the time to elimination of disease in a population. It is therefore clear that more detailed coverage data is required to accurately predict the time to disease elimination. We review published coverage data in which individuals are asked how many previous rounds they have attended, and show how this information may be used to assess the level of systematic non-adherence. We note that while the coverages in the data found range from 40.5% to 95.5%, still the correlations found lie in a fairly narrow range (between 0.2806 and 0.5351). This indicates that the level of systematic non-adherence may be similar even in data from different years, countries, diseases and administered drugs.

Effectiveness of a triple-drug regimen for global elimination of lymphatic filariasis: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis is targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2020. The principal approach used by current programmes is annual mass drug administration with two pairs of drugs with a good safety profile. However, one dose of a triple-drug regimen (ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole) has been shown to clear the transmissible stage of the helminth completely in treated individuals. The aim of this study was to use modelling to assess the potential value of mass drug administration with the triple-drug regimen for accelerating elimination of lymphatic filariasis in different epidemiological settings.

METHODS

We used three different transmission models to compare the number of rounds of mass drug administration needed to achieve a prevalence of microfilaraemia less than 1% with the triple-drug regimen and with current two-drug regimens.

FINDINGS

In settings with a low baseline prevalence of lymphatic filariasis (5%), the triple-drug regimen reduced the number of rounds of mass drug administration needed to reach the target prevalence by one or two rounds, compared with the two-drug regimen. For areas with higher baseline prevalence (10-40%), the triple-drug regimen strikingly reduced the number of rounds of mass drug administration needed, by about four or five, but only at moderate-to-high levels of population coverage (>65%) and if systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration was low.

INTERPRETATION

Simulation modelling suggests that the triple-drug regimen has potential to accelerate the elimination of lymphatic filariasis if high population coverage of mass drug administration can be achieved and if systematic non-adherence with mass drug administration is low. Future work will reassess these estimates in light of more clinical trial data and to understand the effect on an individual country's programme.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Scope of detectability of circulating antigens of human lymphatic filarial parasite Wuchereria bancrofti with smaller amount of serum by Og4C3 assay: its application in lymphatic filariasis elimination programme

Filarial antigen detection is an appropriate epidemiological indicator for mapping lymphatic filariasis and impact evaluation of filariasis elimination programme in view of low sensitivity of parasite detection. Monoclonal antibody-based Og4C3 immunological test requires 100 µl serum, which is difficult to collect by finger prick method during community based surveys. Hence, we tested lesser volume of serum compared to standard volume of 100 µl to compare its sensitivity and specificity in detecting the circulating filarial antigens. Blood samples were collected from individuals who tested positive [with titer groups 4 (border line positives), 6 (medium positives), and 8 (high positives)] and negative (titre group 3) for Og4C3 assay. Different volumes of serum samples were used to make-up required volume (100 µl) with appropriate dilutions and subjected to Og4C3 assay. The results showed that known negative samples tested negative at all the serum volumes tested. All positives (titer groups 6 and 8) showed positivity at all reduced volumes of serum sample. However one of the medium positive sample showed negative reaction in 5 µl volume of serum and two of the border line positives showed negative at all the serum volume tested. The results thus showed as less as 15 µl serum is adequate for use in Og4C3 assay. So the test can be performed without losing its sensitivity even with 5 µl serum samples at high titre of antigen (titre group 8) and 15 µl for other groups and this method has scope in programme evaluation.

Understanding the relationship between prevalence of microfilariae and antigenaemia using a model of lymphatic filariasis infection

Background

Lymphatic filariasis is a debilitating neglected tropical disease that affects impoverished communities. Rapid diagnostic tests of antigenaemia are a practical alternative to parasitological tests of microfilaraemia for mapping and surveillance. However the relationship between these two methods of measuring burden has previously been difficult to interpret.

Methods

A statistical model of the distribution of worm burden and microfilariae (mf) and resulting antigenaemic and mf prevalence was developed and fitted to surveys of two contrasting sentinel sites undergoing interventions. The fitted model was then used to explore the relationship in various pre- and post-intervention scenarios.

Results

The model had good quantitative agreement with the data and provided estimates of the reduction in mf output due to treatment. When extrapolating the results to a range of prevalences there was good qualitative agreement with published data.

Conclusions

The observed relationship between antigenamic and mf prevalence is a natural consequence of the relationship between prevalence and intensity of adult worms and mf production. The method described here allows the estimation of key epidemiological parameters and consequently gives insight into the efficacy of an intervention programme.

Lessons Learned From Developing an Eradication Investment Case for Lymphatic Filariasis

In the last few years, the concepts of disease elimination and eradication have again gained consideration from the global health community, with Guinea worm disease (dracunculiasis) on track to become the first parasitic disease to be eradicated. Given the many complex and interlinking issues involved in committing to a disease eradication initiative, such commitments must be based on a solid assessment of a broad range of factors. In this chapter, we discuss the value and implications of undertaking a systematic and fact-based analysis of the overall situation prior to embarking on an elimination or eradication programme. As an example, we draw upon insights gained from a series of lymphatic filariasis (LF) studies from our research group that adopted an eradication investment case (EIC) framework. The justification for EICs, and related epidemiological, geospatial and other mathematical/operational research modelling, stems from the necessity for proper planning prior to committing to disease eradication. Across all considerations for LF eradication, including: time, treatments, level of investments necessary, health impact, cost-effectiveness, and broader economic benefits, scaling-up mass drug administration coverage to all endemic communities immediately provided the most favourable results. The coherent and consistent pursuit of eradication goals, operationally tailored to a given socioecological system and based on integrated measures of available tools will lead relatively rapidly to elimination in many parts of endemic areas and provide the cornerstone towards eradication.

Mathematical modelling of lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in India: required duration of mass drug administration and post-treatment level of infection indicators

Background

India has made great progress towards the elimination of lymphatic filariasis. By 2015, most endemic districts had completed at least five annual rounds of mass drug administration (MDA). The next challenge is to determine when MDA can be stopped. We performed a simulation study with the individual-based model LYMFASIM to help clarify this.

Methods

We used a model-variant for Indian settings. We considered different hypotheses on detectability of antigenaemia (Ag) in relation to underlying adult worm burden, choosing the most likely hypothesis by comparing the model predicted association between community-level microfilaraemia (Mf) and antigenaemia (Ag) prevalence levels to observed data (collated from literature). Next, we estimated how long MDA must be continued in order to achieve elimination in different transmission settings and what Mf and Ag prevalence may still remain 1 year after the last required MDA round. The robustness of key-outcomes was assessed in a sensitivity analysis.

Results

Our model matched observed data qualitatively well when we assumed an Ag detection rate of 50 % for single worm infections, which increases with the number of adult worms (modelled by relating detection to the presence of female worms). The required duration of annual MDA increased with higher baseline endemicity and lower coverage (varying between 2 and 12 rounds), while the remaining residual infection 1 year after the last required treatment declined with transmission intensity. For low and high transmission settings, the median residual infection levels were 1.0 % and 0.4 % (Mf prevalence in the 5+ population), and 3.5 % and 2.0 % (Ag prevalence in 6–7 year-old children).

Conclusion

To achieve elimination in high transmission settings, MDA must be continued longer and infection levels must be reduced to lower levels than in low-endemic communities. Although our simulations were for Indian settings, qualitatively similar patterns are also expected in other areas. This should be taken into account in decision algorithms to define whether MDA can be interrupted. Transmission assessment surveys should ideally be targeted to communities with the highest pre-control transmission levels, to minimize the risk of programme failure.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1768-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

From the worm to the pill, the parasitic worm product ES-62 raises new horizons in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis

Evidence from human studies suggests that parasitic worm infection can protect humans against rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and this idea is strengthened by data generated in model systems. Although therapeutic use of parasitic worms is currently being explored, there are obvious benefits in pursuing drug development through identification and isolation of the 'active ingredients'. ES-62 is a secreted glycoprotein of the filarial nematode Acanthocheilonema viteae, which we have found to protect against the development of collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) in mice. ES-62 activity is dependent on the inflammatory phenotype of the local environment and protection arises via inhibition of Th17- and γδT cell-dependent IL-17 production. At the same time, NK and NK T cell IL-17 production is left intact, and such selectivity suggests that ES-62 might make a particularly attractive therapeutic for RA. However, as a potentially immunogenic protein, ES-62 is unsuitable for development as a drug. Nevertheless, ES-62 activity is dependent on covalently attached phosphorylcholine (PC) residues and we have therefore produced a library of PC-based drug-like ES-62 small-molecule analogues (SMAs) as an alternative therapeutic strategy. Screening this library, we have found an ES-62 SMA that mirrors ES-62 in protecting against CIA and by the same IL-17-dependent mechanism of action.

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.

Modelling strategies to break transmission of lymphatic filariasis--aggregation, adherence and vector competence greatly alter elimination

BACKGROUND

With ambitious targets to eliminate lymphatic filariasis over the coming years, there is a need to identify optimal strategies to achieve them in areas with different baseline prevalence and stages of control. Modelling can assist in identifying what data should be collected and what strategies are best for which scenarios.

METHODS

We develop a new individual-based, stochastic mathematical model of the transmission of lymphatic filariasis. We validate the model by fitting to a first time point and predicting future timepoints from surveillance data in Kenya and Sri Lanka, which have different vectors and different stages of the control programme. We then simulate different treatment scenarios in low, medium and high transmission settings, comparing once yearly mass drug administration (MDA) with more frequent MDA and higher coverage. We investigate the potential impact that vector control, systematic non-compliance and different levels of aggregation have on the dynamics of transmission and control.

RESULTS

In all settings, increasing coverage from 65 to 80 % has a similar impact on control to treating twice a year at 65 % coverage, for fewer drug treatments being distributed. Vector control has a large impact, even at moderate levels. The extent of aggregation of parasite loads amongst a small portion of the population, which has been estimated to be highly variable in different settings, can undermine the success of a programme, particularly if high risk sub-communities are not accessing interventions.

CONCLUSION

Even moderate levels of vector control have a large impact both on the reduction in prevalence and the maintenance of gains made during MDA, even when parasite loads are highly aggregated, and use of vector control is at moderate levels. For the same prevalence, differences in aggregation and adherence can result in very different dynamics. The novel analysis of a small amount of surveillance data and resulting simulations highlight the need for more individual level data to be analysed to effectively tailor programmes in the drive for elimination.

A novel member of the let-7 microRNA family is associated with developmental transitions in filarial nematode parasites

Background

Filarial nematodes are important pathogens in the tropics transmitted to humans via the bite of blood sucking arthropod vectors. The molecular mechanisms underpinning survival and differentiation of these parasites following transmission are poorly understood. microRNAs are small non-coding RNA molecules that regulate target mRNAs and we set out to investigate whether they play a role in the infection event.

Results

microRNAs differentially expressed during the early post-infective stages of Brugia pahangi L3 were identified by microarray analysis. One of these, bpa-miR-5364, was selected for further study as it is upregulated ~12-fold at 24 hours post-infection, is specific to clade III nematodes, and is a novel member of the let-7 family, which are known to have key developmental functions in the free-living nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. Predicted mRNA targets of bpa-miR-5364 were identified using bioinformatics and comparative genomics approaches that relied on the conservation of miR-5364 binding sites in the orthologous mRNAs of other filarial nematodes. Finally, we confirmed the interaction between bpa-miR-5364 and three of its predicted targets using a dual luciferase assay.

Conclusions

These data provide new insight into the molecular mechanisms underpinning the transmission of third stage larvae of filarial nematodes from vector to mammal. This study is the first to identify parasitic nematode mRNAs that are verified targets of specific microRNAs and demonstrates that post-transcriptional control of gene expression via stage-specific expression of microRNAs may be important in the success of filarial infection.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12864-015-1536-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Modelling lymphatic filariasis transmission and control: modelling frameworks, lessons learned and future directions

Mathematical modelling provides a useful tool for policy making and planning in lymphatic filariasis control programmes, by providing trend forecasts based on sound scientific knowledge and principles. This is now especially true, in view of the ambitious target to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem globally by the year 2020 and the short remaining timeline to achieve this. To meet this target, elimination programmes need to be accelerated, requiring further optimization of strategies and tailoring to local circumstances. Insights from epidemiological transmission models provide a useful basis. Two general models of lymphatic filariasis transmission and control are nowadays in use to support decision-making, namely a population-based deterministic model (EPIFIL) and an individual-based stochastic model (LYMFASIM). Model predictions confirm that lymphatic filariasis transmission can be interrupted by annual mass drug administration (MDA), but this may need to be continued much longer than the initially suggested 4-6 years in areas with high transmission intensity or poor treatment coverage. However, the models have not been validated against longitudinal data describing the impact of MDA programmes. Some critical issues remain to be incorporated in one or both of the models to make predictions on elimination more realistic, including the possible occurrence of systematic noncompliance, the risk of emerging parasite resistance to anthelmintic drugs, and spatial heterogeneities. Rapid advances are needed to maximize the utility of models in decision-making for the ongoing ambitious lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes.

Lessons from helminth infections: ES-62 highlights new interventional approaches in rheumatoid arthritis

Parasitic worms are able to survive in their mammalian host for many years due to their ability to manipulate the immune response by secreting immunomodulatory products. It is increasingly clear that, reflecting the anti-inflammatory actions of such worm-derived immunomodulators, there is an inverse correlation between helminth infection and autoimmune diseases in the developing world. As the decrease in helminth infections due to increased sanitation has correlated with an alarming increase in prevalence of such disorders in industrialized countries, this ‘hygiene hypothesis’ has led to the proposal that worms and their secreted products offer a novel platform for the development of safe and effective strategies for the treatment of autoimmune disorders. In this study we review the anti-inflammatory effects of one such immunomodulator, ES-62 on innate and adaptive immune responses and the mechanisms it exploits to afford protection in the murine collagen-induced arthritis (CIA) model of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). As its core mechanism involves targeting of interleukin (IL)-17 responses, which despite being pathogenic in RA are important for combating infection, we discuss how its selective targeting of IL-17 production by T helper type 17 (Th17) and γδ T cells, while leaving that of CD49b⁺ natural killer (NK and NK T) cells intact, reflects the ability of helminths to modulate the immune system without immunocompromising the host. Exploiting helminth immunomodulatory mechanisms therefore offers the potential for safer therapies than current biologicals, such as ‘IL-17 blockers’, that are not able to discriminate sources of IL-17 and hence present adverse effects that limit their therapeutic potential.

ES-62, a therapeutic anti-inflammatory agent evolved by the filarial nematode Acanthocheilonema viteae

Filarial nematodes cause long-term infections in hundreds of millions of people. A significant proportion of those affected develop a number of debilitating health problems but, remarkably, such infections are often unnoticed for many years. It is well known that parasitic worms modulate, yet do not completely inhibit, host immunological pathways, promoting their survival by limiting effective immune mechanisms. Such immunoregulation largely depends on molecules released by the worms, termed excretory-secretory products (ES). One of these products is the molecule ES-62, which is actively secreted by the rodent filarial nematode Acanthocheilonema viteae. ES-62 has been shown to exert anti-inflammatory actions thorough its phosphorylcholine (PC)-containing moiety on a variety of cells of the immune system, affecting intracellular signalling pathways associated with antigen receptor- and TLR-dependent responses. We summarise here how ES-62 modulates key signal transduction elements and how such immunomodulation confers protection to mice subjected to certain experimental models of inflammatory disease. Finally, we discuss recent results showing that it is possible to synthetise small molecule analogues (SMAs) that mimic the anti-inflammatory properties of ES-62, opening an exciting new drug development field in translational medicine.

A repurposing strategy for Hsp90 inhibitors demonstrates their potency against filarial nematodes

Novel drugs are required for the elimination of infections caused by filarial worms, as most commonly used drugs largely target the microfilariae or first stage larvae of these infections. Previous studies, conducted in vitro, have shown that inhibition of Hsp90 kills adult Brugia pahangi. As numerous small molecule inhibitors of Hsp90 have been developed for use in cancer chemotherapy, we tested the activity of several novel Hsp90 inhibitors in a fluorescence polarization assay and against microfilariae and adult worms of Brugia in vitro. The results from all three assays correlated reasonably well and one particular compound, NVP-AUY922, was shown to be particularly active, inhibiting Mf output from female worms at concentrations as low as 5.0 nanomolar after 6 days exposure to drug. NVP-AUY922 was also active on adult worms after a short 24 h exposure to drug. Based on these in vitro data, NVP-AUY922 was tested in vivo in a mouse model and was shown to significantly reduce the recovery of both adult worms and microfilariae. These studies provide proof of principle that the repurposing of currently available Hsp90 inhibitors may have potential for the development of novel agents with macrofilaricidal properties.

Nematode-derived proteins suppress proliferation and cytokine production of antigen-specific T cells via induction of cell death

In order to establish long-lasting infections in their mammalian host, filarial nematodes have developed sophisticated strategies to dampen their host’s immune response. Proteins that are actively secreted by the parasites have been shown to induce the expansion of regulatory T cells and to directly interfere with effector T cell function. Here, we analyze the suppressive capacity of Onchocercavolvulus-derived excreted/secreted proteins. Addition of two recombinant O. volvulus proteins, abundant larval transcript-2 (OvALT-2) and novel larval transcript-1 (OvNLT-1) to cell cultures of T cell receptor transgenic CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells suppressed antigen-specific stimulation in vitro. Ovalbumin-specific CD4⁺ DO11.10 and OT-II T cells that had been stimulated with their cognate antigen in the presence of OvALT-2 or OvNLT-1 displayed reduced DNA synthesis quantified by ³H-thymidine incorporation and reduced cell division quantified by CFSE dilution. Furthermore, the IL-2 and IFN-γ response of ovalbumin-specific CD8⁺ OT-I T cells was suppressed by OvALT-2 and OvNLT-1. In contrast, another recombinant O. volvulus protein, microfilariae surface-associated antigen (Ov103), did not modulate T cell activation, thus serving as internal control for non-ESP-mediated artifacts. Suppressive capacity of the identified ESP was associated with induction of apoptosis in T cells demonstrated by increased exposure of phosphatidylserine on the plasma membrane. Of note, the digestion of recombinant proteins with proteinase K did not abolish the suppression of antigen-specific proliferation although the suppressive capacity of the identified excreted/secreted products was not mediated by low molecular weight contaminants in the undigested preparations. In summary, we identified two suppressive excreted/secreted products from O. volvulus, which interfere with the function of antigen-specific T cells in vitro.

Surveillance of lymphatic filariasis after stopping ten years of mass drug administration in rural communities in south India

BACKGROUND

While various studies provided insight into the impact of mass drug administration (MDA), information on the dynamics of the post-MDA threshold level lymphatic filariasis (LF) infection facilitates understanding its disappearance pattern and determining the duration of post-MDA monitoring and evaluation.

METHODS

The changes in microfilaraemia (Mf) prevalence and vector infection rates were monitored for four (2005-2008) and six years (2005-2010) respectively after stopping ten rounds of annual mass diethylcarbamazine (DEC) administration in a group of five villages located in South India. Four years after stopping MDA, circulating filarial antigenaemia (Ag) status among children and adults was also assessed in two villages.

RESULTS

Overall Mf prevalence (n = 700) and vector infection rates (n=803-3520) showed a declining trend. Two villages maintained zero Mf status in each of the four years, vector infection rate was zero from the third year onwards and Ag prevalence in adults was 0.4% (n = 226). In two other villages despite persistence of Mf and vector infection there was zero vector infectivity rate during the third to sixth year and Ag prevalence among children (n = 50) was nil. In the fifth village Mf prevailed at <1.0% and Ag prevalence among 1-7 year old children was 4.6% (n = 44) and vector infectivity rate during the sixth year was 0.1% (n = 852).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of sporadic new infections is evident in highly endemic communities such as the fifth village. However, there is uncertainty on the potential of the Ag positive children to reestablish infection. Six years of post-MDA monitoring and evaluation appears to be adequate to discern the status of transmission interruption and appropriate decision making.

Modeling the impact and costs of semiannual mass drug administration for accelerated elimination of lymphatic filariasis

The Global Program to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) has a target date of 2020. This program is progressing well in many countries. However, progress has been slow in some countries, and others have not yet started their mass drug administration (MDA) programs. Acceleration is needed. We studied how increasing MDA frequency from once to twice per year would affect program duration and costs by using computer simulation modeling and cost projections. We used the LYMFASIM simulation model to estimate how many annual or semiannual MDA rounds would be required to eliminate LF for Indian and West African scenarios with varied pre-control endemicity and coverage levels. Results were used to estimate total program costs assuming a target population of 100,000 eligibles, a 3% discount rate, and not counting the costs of donated drugs. A sensitivity analysis was done to investigate the robustness of these results with varied assumptions for key parameters. Model predictions suggested that semiannual MDA will require the same number of MDA rounds to achieve LF elimination as annual MDA in most scenarios. Thus semiannual MDA programs should achieve this goal in half of the time required for annual programs. Due to efficiency gains, total program costs for semiannual MDA programs are projected to be lower than those for annual MDA programs in most scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this conclusion is robust. Semiannual MDA is likely to shorten the time and lower the cost required for LF elimination in countries where it can be implemented. This strategy may improve prospects for global elimination of LF by the target year 2020.

The Global Program to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) employs annual mass drug administration (MDA) of antifilarial drugs to reduce infection rates in populations and interrupt transmission. While this program is working well in many countries, progress has been slow in others, and some countries have not yet started MDA programs. We used computer simulation modeling and cost projections to study how increasing MDA frequency from once to twice per year would affect program duration and costs. Our results suggest that semiannual MDA is likely to reduce the time required to eliminate LF by 50% and reduce total program costs (excluding the cost of donated drugs) in most situations. For these and other reasons, we expect semiannual MDA to be superior to annual MDA in most endemic settings. Semiannual MDA should be considered as a means of accelerating LF elimination in areas where it can be implemented, because this may improve prospects for global elimination of LF by the target year 2020.

Transmission models and management of lymphatic filariasis elimination

The planning and evaluation of parasitic control programmes are complicated by the many interacting population dynamic and programmatic factors that determine infection trends under different control options. A key need is quantification about the status of the parasite system state at any one given timepoint and the dynamic change brought upon that state as an intervention program proceeds. Here, we focus on the control and elimination of the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, to show how mathematical models of parasite transmission can provide a quantitative framework for aiding the design of parasite elimination and monitoring programs by their ability to support (1) conducting rational analysis and definition of endpoints for different programmatic aims or objectives, including transmission endpoints for disease elimination, (2) undertaking strategic analysis to aid the optimal design of intervention programs to meet set endpoints under different endemic settings and (3) providing support for performing informed evaluations of ongoing programs, including aiding the formation of timely adaptive management strategies to correct for any observed deficiencies in program effectiveness. The results also highlight how the use of a model-based framework will be critical to addressing the impacts of ecological complexities, heterogeneities and uncertainties on effective parasite management and thereby guiding the development of strategies to resolve and overcome such real-world complexities. In particular, we underscore how this approach can provide a link between ecological science and policy by revealing novel tools and measures to appraise and enhance the biological controllability or eradicability of parasitic diseases. We conclude by emphasizing an urgent need to develop and apply flexible adaptive management frameworks informed by mathematical models that are based on learning and reducing uncertainty using monitoring data, apply phased or sequential decision-making to address extant uncertainty and focus on developing ecologically resilient management strategies, in ongoing efforts to control or eliminate filariasis and other parasitic diseases in resource-poor communities.

Association between mannose-binding lectin polymorphisms and Wuchereria bancrofti infection in two communities in North-Eastern Tanzania

The association between selected mannose-binding lectin (MBL) genotype polymorphisms and Wuchereria bancrofti infection status was assessed among individuals whose infection status had been monitored for three decades. Blood samples were collected in 2006 and examined for polymorphisms in the mbl-2 gene and for W. bancrofti-specific circulating filarial antigen (CFA) status. Logistic regression analysis showed a significant association between MBL genotype and CFA status, with low-expression MBL genotype individuals being almost three times more likely to be CFA positive than high-expression MBL genotype individuals (odds ratio [OR] = 2.90). When individuals' filarial infection (microfilaria) status in 1975 was included in the analyses, the gain of new infections between the two examination points was almost 10 times higher among individuals with low than among those with high MBL expression genotype (OR = 9.51). The susceptibility to W. bancrofti infection thus appears to be significantly affected by the MBL expression genotype of the host.

The therapeutic potential of the filarial nematode-derived immunodulator, ES-62 in inflammatory disease

The dramatic recent rise in the incidence of allergic or autoimmune inflammatory diseases in the West has been proposed to reflect the lack of appropriate priming of the immune response by infectious agents such as parasitic worms during childhood. Consistent with this, there is increasing evidence supporting an inverse relationship between worm infection and T helper type 1/17 (Th1/17)-based inflammatory disorders such as rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, type 1 diabetes and multiple sclerosis. Perhaps more surprisingly, given that such worms often induce strong Th2-type immune responses, there also appears to be an inverse correlation between parasite load and atopy. These findings therefore suggest that the co-evolution of helminths with hosts, which has resulted in the ability of worms to modulate inflammatory responses to promote parasite survival, has also produced the benefit of protecting the host from pathological lesions arising from aggressive proinflammatory responses to infection or, indeed, aberrant inflammatory responses underlying autoimmune and allergic disorders. By focusing upon the properties of the filarial nematode-derived immunomodulatory molecule, ES-62, in this review we shall discuss the potential of exploiting the immunomodulatory products of parasitic worms to identify and develop novel therapeutics for inflammation.

Immunomodulation by phosphocholine--biosynthesis, structures and immunological implications of parasitic PC-epitopes

Phosphocholine (PC) as a small haptenic molecule present on antigens of parasites can provoke various effects on immune cells leading to immunomodulation of the host's immune system. This immunomodulation not only allows long-term persistence but also prevents severe pathology due to down-regulation of cellular immune responses. Additionally, PC plays an important role for development and fertility of the parasites. To fully understand the mechanisms of immunomodulation the detailed knowledge of the biosynthesis of the PC-epitopes, their molecular structure and biological function has to be elucidated. The implication of parasite-specific transferases in the biosynthesis of the PC-epitopes and the sensitivity of parasites towards disruption of the choline metabolism offers new perspectives for the development of anti-parasitic drugs and therapies. Furthermore, the immunomodulation provoked by PC-epitopes preventing inflammatory reactions may be useful in the treatment of inflammatory diseases. This review summarizes the current knowledge on the biosynthesis of PC-epitopes, their structures and immunological implications.

Immunomodulatory activity and therapeutic potential of the filarial nematode secreted product, ES-62

ES-62 is a protein that is actively secreted by filarial nematodes during parasitism of the vertebrate host. The molecule is able to directly interact with a number of cells of the immune system including B-lymphocytes, dendritic cells, macrophages and mast cells. Interaction appears to be dependent on complexing with TLR4 and results in modulation of the activity of a number of signal transduction molecules including MAP kinases, PI-3 kinase and NF-kappaB. Immunomodulatory activity of ES-62 appears to be largely due to the presence of phosphorylcholine (PC) moieties covalently attached to N-type glycans. The net effect of ES-62's interaction with the immune system is the generation of an anti-inflammatory immunological phenotype. As a consequence of this, ES-62 demonstrates striking drug-like activity in models of disease associated with aberrant inflammation, in particular those associated with autoimmunity and allergy.

LYMFASIM, a simulation model for predicting the impact of lymphatic filariasis control: quantification for African villages

LYMFASIM is a simulation model for lymphatic filariasis transmission and control. We quantified its parameters to simulate Wuchereria bancrofti transmission by Anopheles mosquitoes in African villages, using a wide variety of reported data. The developed model captures the general epidemiological patterns, but also the differences between communities. It was calibrated to represent the relationship between mosquito biting rate and the prevalence of microfilariae (mf) in the human population, the age-pattern in mf prevalence, and the relation between mf prevalence and geometric mean mf intensity. Explorative simulations suggest that the impact of mass treatment depends strongly on the mosquito biting rate and on the assumed coverage, compliance and efficacy. Our sensitivity analysis showed that some biological parameters strongly influence the predicted equilibrium pre-treatment mf prevalence (e.g. the lifespan of adult worms and mf). Other parameters primarily affect the post-treatment trends (e.g. severity of density dependence in the mosquito uptake of infection from the human blood, between-person variability in exposure to mosquito bites). The longitudinal data, which are being collected for evaluation of ongoing elimination programmes, can help to further validate the model. The model can help to assess when ongoing elimination activities in African populations can be stopped and to design surveillance schemes. It can be a valuable tool for decision making in the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis.

Parasitic nematode modulation of allergic disease

Incidence of allergic diseases such as asthma has increased at an alarming rate in Western countries in the past few decades. However, in parts of the world in which parasitic nematode infections are highly prevalent, allergy remains uncommon. Hence, it has been postulated that nematodes offer humans protection against this type of disease. This article reviews the evidence to support this idea, considering data from human studies and results from investigations into the protective effects of nematodes in animal models of allergic disease. The evidence strongly favors a protective role for nematodes; thus, the search is on to find the molecules involved, with a view toward using them for therapeutic purposes. The article also describes the nature and mode of action of recently characterized nematode-derived molecules with antiallergic properties and highlights their therapeutic efficacy in allergy models.

Therapeutic immunomodulators from nematode parasites

There has been an alarming increase in the incidence of autoimmune and allergic diseases in Western countries in the past few decades. However, in countries endemic for parasitic helminth infections, such diseases remain relatively rare. Hence, it has been hypothesised that helminths may protect against the development of autoimmunity and allergy. This article reviews the evidence supporting this idea with respect to helminths of the phylum Nematoda (nematodes), considering data from human studies and animal models of inflammatory disease. The nature and mode of action of nematode-derived molecules with immunomodulatory properties are considered, and their therapeutic efficacy in models of autoimmunity and allergy described. The recent and future use of nematodes and their products in treating human disease are also discussed.

Filarial nematode secreted product ES-62 is an anti-inflammatory agent: therapeutic potential of small molecule derivatives and ES-62 peptide mimetics

1. The 'hygiene hypothesis' postulates that the recent increased incidence of allergic or autoimmune diseases (e.g. asthma, type I diabetes) in the West reflects an absence of appropriate priming of the immune response by infectious agents, such as parasitic worms, during childhood. 2. Consistent with this, it has long been recognized that several autoimmune disorders, such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA), a T helper (Th) 1-mediated autoimmune disease characterized by excess production of pro-inflammatory cytokines, such as tumour necrosis factor-alpha, exhibit reduced incidence and severity in geographical regions with high parasite load, suggesting that environmental factors may subtly alter disease progression. 3. Infection with worms also appears to suppress Th2-biased inflammatory disorders, such as asthma, because there also appears to be an inverse correlation between parasite load and atopy. This is perhaps more surprising, given that helminths often induce strong Th2-type immune responses characterized by release of specific cytokines, such as interleukin (IL)-4, IL-5 and IL-13. 4. Therefore, these findings suggest that the co-evolution of helminths with hosts, which has resulted in the ability of worms to modulate inflammatory responses in order to promote parasite survival, may also have generated a predisposition for the host to develop autoimmunity and allergy in the absence of infection. 5. The mechanisms underlying such immunomodulation are not clear, but appear to involve the release of parasite-derived molecules that allow the worms to modulate or evade the host immune response by a number of mechanisms, including skewing of cytokine responses and the induction of T regulatory cells. 6. In the present review we discuss the properties of one such filarial nematode-derived immunomodulatory molecule, namely ES-62, its anti-inflammatory action and the therapeutic potential of small molecule derivatives and peptides that mimic its action.

Changes in Wuchereria bancrofti infection in a highly endemic community following 10 rounds of mass administration of diethylcarbamazine

Mass drug administration (MDA) is the principal strategy of the programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF). Evaluation of MDA in highly endemic 'sentinel' communities is necessary to understand its impact on LF infection. This study examined the changes in Wuchereria bancrofti infection following 10 rounds of annual mass administration of diethylcarbamazine (DEC) in a highly endemic community. The mean number of DEC treatments received per adult in the community was 7.4+/-2.0. Following 10 rounds of DEC administration, the number of microfilaria (mf) carriers fell from 565 to 55. None of the pre-MDA amicrofilaraemic individuals showed circulating filarial antigen (CFA). However, 54.5% of the pre-MDA microfilaraemic individuals were positive for CFA. All the pre-MDA high intensity mf carriers continued to be positive for CFA, and some of them also showed blood mf. These patients are the most difficult to be cured by MDA and were distributed in 8.2% of the households. All the children born during the last 7 years of the MDA programme were negative for CFA. The study suggests that six to seven DEC treatments per individual suppresses microfilaraemia, except in some people with heavy infection, and repeated MDA has very good potential to prevent infection in children.

Innate Immune Responses to EndosymbioticWolbachiaBacteria inBrugia malayiandOnchocerca volvulusAre Dependent on TLR2, TLR6, MyD88, and Mal, but Not TLR4, TRIF, or TRAM

The discovery that endosymbiotic Wolbachia bacteria play an important role in the pathophysiology of diseases caused by filarial nematodes, including lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis (river blindness) has transformed our approach to these disabling diseases. Because these parasites infect hundreds of millions of individuals worldwide, understanding host factors involved in the pathogenesis of filarial-induced diseases is paramount. However, the role of early innate responses to filarial and Wolbachia ligands in the development of filarial diseases has not been fully elucidated. To determine the role of TLRs, we used cell lines transfected with human TLRs and macrophages from TLR and adaptor molecule-deficient mice and evaluated macrophage recruitment in vivo. Extracts of Brugia malayi and Onchocerca volvulus, which contain Wolbachia, directly stimulated human embryonic kidney cells expressing TLR2, but not TLR3 or TLR4. Wolbachia containing filarial extracts stimulated cytokine production in macrophages from C57BL/6 and TLR4(-/-) mice, but not from TLR2(-/-) or TLR6(-/-) mice. Similarly, macrophages from mice deficient in adaptor molecules Toll/IL-1R domain-containing adaptor-inducing IFN-beta and Toll/IL-1R domain-containing adaptor-inducing IFN-beta-related adaptor molecule produced equivalent cytokines as wild-type cells, whereas responses were absent in macrophages from MyD88(-/-) and Toll/IL-1R domain-containing adaptor protein (TIRAP)/MyD88 adaptor-like (Mal) deficient mice. Isolated Wolbachia bacteria demonstrated similar TLR and adaptor molecule requirements. In vivo, macrophage migration to the cornea in response to filarial extracts containing Wolbachia was dependent on TLR2 but not TLR4. These results establish that the innate inflammatory pathways activated by endosymbiotic Wolbachia in B. malayi and O. volvulus filaria are dependent on TLR2-TLR6 interactions and are mediated by adaptor molecules MyD88 and TIRAP/Mal.

Model-based analysis of trial data: microfilaria and worm-productivity loss after diethylcarbamazine-albendazole or ivermectin-albendazole combination therapy against Wuchereria bancrofti

OBJECTIVES

To determine the efficacies of combinations of ivermectin or diethylcarbamazine and albendazole, which are recommended for use in mass treatment programmes against lymphatic filariasis.

METHOD

Review of published trends in microfilarial (mf) intensities after treatment with these combination therapies. By fitting a mathematical model of treatment effects to the trial data, we quantified the efficacy of treatment, distinguishing between the killing of mf (mf loss) and a reduction in mf production by adult worms (worm-productivity loss). After diethylcarbamazine-albendazole treatment mf density dropped immediately, then slowly but steadily decreased further (four trials). After ivermectin-albendazole treatment, mf densities immediately dropped to near-zero levels, followed by a small increase (five trials). For diethylcarbamazine-albendazole treatment the average mf loss was approximately 83% (ranging from 54% to 100% in the different studies) and worm-productivity loss was 100% (in all studies). For ivermectin-albendazole treatment, average mf loss was 100% (ranging from 98% to 100%) and worm productivity loss was 96% (ranging from 83% to 100%). The effects were dose-dependent. Sensitivity analysis showed that the estimates did not depend on assumptions on worm lifespan or premature period and little on assumptions on mf lifespan.

CONCLUSION

The two therapies differ with respect to their direct effect on mf, but both are highly effective against adult worms. If mass treatment with these combination therapies achieves high coverage, they can have a large impact on lymphatic filariasis transmission.

Advances and challenges in predicting the impact of lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes by mathematical modelling

Mathematical simulation models for transmission and control of lymphatic filariasis are useful tools for studying the prospects of lymphatic filariasis elimination. Two simulation models are currently being used. The first, EPIFIL, is a population-based, deterministic model that simulates average trends in infection intensity over time. The second, LYMFASIM, is an individual-based, stochastic model that simulates acquisition and loss of infection for each individual in the simulated population, taking account of individual characteristics. For settings like Pondicherry (India), where Wuchereria bancrofti infection is transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus, the models give similar predictions of the coverage and number of treatment rounds required to bring microfilaraemia prevalence below a level of 0.5%. Nevertheless, published estimates of the duration of mass treatment required for elimination differed, due to the use of different indicators for elimination (EPIFIL: microfilaraemia prevalence < 0.5% after the last treatment; LYMFASIM: reduction of microfilaraemia prevalence to zero, within 40 years after the start of mass treatment). The two main challenges for future modelling work are: 1) quantification and validation of the models for other regions, for investigation of elimination prospects in situations with other vector-parasite combinations and endemicity levels than in Pondicherry; 2) application of the models to address a range of programmatic issues related to the monitoring and evaluation of ongoing control programmes. The models' usefulness could be enhanced by several extensions; inclusion of different diagnostic tests and natural history of disease in the models is of particular relevance.

Does longevity of adult Wuchereria bancrofti increase with decreasing intensity of parasite transmission? Insights from clinical observations

To interrupt transmission of Wuchereria bancrofti, a parasite that causes lymphatic filariasis, mass treatment of at-risk populations with antifilarial drugs is recommended for 4-6 years, the minimum estimated adult worm lifespan. Factors associated with adult worm longevity are unknown. In Recife, Brazil, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of 57 men whose adult W. bancrofti were not sensitive to diethylcarbamazine and who were followed with semi-annual physical examinations (to detect intrascrotal nodules, indicative of adult worm death) and ultrasound examinations (to detect the 'filaria dance sign' (FDS), indicative of living adult worms). After 5 years, the FDS remained detectable in 10 (24.4%) of 41 adult worm nests in 25 men from areas of high filariasis transmission intensity and in 30 (90.9%) of 33 nests in 32 men from areas of low transmission (P<0.001). New nodules and adult worm nests were detected only in men from high-transmission areas. Of 30 men who were microfilaria-positive initially and whose FDS remained detectable after 5 years of follow-up, 19 (63.3%) remained microfilaria-positive in 5 ml blood (mean density, 0.4 per ml). In conclusion, survival of adult W. bancrofti is inversely associated with transmission intensity. These findings have implications for filariasis elimination and research.

Subversion of immune cell signal transduction pathways by the secreted filarial nematode product, ES-62

Filarial nematodes achieve longevity within the infected host by suppressing and modulating the host immune response. To do this, the worms actively secrete products that have been demonstrated to possess immunomodulatory properties. In this article we discuss the immunomodulatory effects of the phosphorylcholine-containing filarial nematode secreted glycoprotein ES-62. In particular we describe how it modulates intracellular signal transduction pathways in a number of different cells of the immune system, in particular B-lymphocytes, T-lymphocytes, macrophages and dendritic cells.

Lack of immunological cross-reactivity between parasite-derived and recombinant forms of ES-62, a secreted protein of Acanthocheilonema viteae

The longevity of filarial nematodes is dependent on secreted immunomodulatory products. Previous investigation of one such product, ES-62, has suggested a critical role for post-translationally attached phosphorylcholine (PC) moieties. In order to further investigate this, ES-62 lacking PC was produced, using the Pichia pastoris recombinant gene expression system. Unlike parasite-derived ES-62, which is tetrameric the recombinant material was found to consist of a mixture of apparently stable tetramers, dimers and monomers. Nevertheless, the recombinant protein was considered to be an adequate PC-free ES-62 as it was recognized by existing antisera against the parasite-derived protein. However, subsequent to this, recognition of parasite-derived ES-62 by antibodies produced against the recombinant protein was found to be absent. In an attempt to explain this, recombinant ES-62 was subjected to structural analysis and was found to (i) contain 3 changes in amino acid composition; (ii) demonstrate significant alterations in glycosylation; (iii) show major differences in protein secondary structure. The effects of these alterations in relation to the observed change in immunogenicity were investigated and are discussed. The data presented clearly show that recognition by existing antibodies is insufficient proof that recombinant proteins can be used to mimic parasite-derived material in studies on nematode immunology and vaccination.