Morbidity profiles of patients consulting during influenza and respiratory syncytial virus active periods

A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Phase 1 Study to Evaluate the Safety, Reactogenicity, and Immunogenicity of Single Vaccination of Ad26.RSV.preF-Based Regimen in Japanese Adults Aged 60 Years and Older

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is increasingly recognized as a significant cause of lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD) in older adults. The Ad26.RSV.preF/RSV preF protein vaccine demonstrated protective efficacy against RSV related LRTD in a Phase 2b study in the United States. Hence, Ad26.RSV.preF/RSV preF protein vaccine candidate was evaluated in the Japanese older adult population.

METHODS

This Phase 1 study evaluated safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of Ad26.RSV.preF/RSV preF protein vaccine at dose level of 1 × 1011 vp/150 μg in Japanese healthy adult aged ≥60 years. The study included a screening Phase, vaccination, 28-day follow up Phase, a 182-day follow-up period, and final visit on Day 183. A total of 36 participants were randomized in a 2:1 ratio to receive Ad26.RSV.preF/RSV preF protein vaccine (n = 24) or placebo (n = 12). After study intervention administration, the safety and immunogenicity analysis were performed as per planned schedule. Immune responses including virus-neutralizing and preF-specific binding antibodies were measured on Days 1, 15, 29, and 183.

RESULTS

There were no deaths, SAEs, or AEs leading to discontinuation reported during the study. The Ad26.RSV.preF/RSV preF protein vaccine had acceptable safety and tolerability profile with no safety concern in Japanese older adults. The Ad26.RSV.preF/RSV preF protein vaccine induced RSV-specific humoral immunity, with increase in antibody titers on Days 15 and 29 compared with baseline which was well maintained until Day 183.

CONCLUSIONS

A single dose of Ad26.RSV.preF/RSV preF protein vaccine had an acceptable safety and tolerability profile and induced RSV-specific humoral immunity in Japanese healthy adults.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT number: NCT04354480; Clinical Registry number: CR108768.

Circulation patterns and molecular epidemiology of human respiratory syncytial virus over five consecutive seasons in Morocco

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is the leading cause of respiratory tract infections in infants and young children. we investigated the prevalence and characteristics of HRSV in Morocco and explored trends in circulating genotypes through partial G gene analysis of HRSV strains prevalent from 2012 to 2017.

Methods

Respiratory samples were gathered from both outpatients and inpatients meeting ILI or SARI case definitions. The patients' ages varied from 1 month to 99 years old. Nucleic acids were extracted and HRSV type/subtype was detected by RT-qPCR. A subset of positive samples was randomly selected in each epidemic year, the complete viral genome was sequenced, phylogenetic analysis was performed using the MEGA7 program and the genotypes were confirmed.

Results

The 3679 specimens were collected from 2012 to 2017, of which 726 (19.7%) were positive for HRSV. The 35% (257/726) of HRSV-positives were of the HRSV-A subtype, while the HRSV-B subtype accounted for 61% (442/726). The co-infection rate was 3.7% (27/726). The virus circulates in a periodic pattern, where epidemics occur during the fall months through early spring. HRSV genotype was confirmed in 127 specimens (56 HRSV-A and 71 HRSV-B). Based on phylogenetic analysis, all HRSV-A were ON1 genotype, and HRSV-B were mostly BA9 genotype. HRSV-B belonging to the BA10 genotype was detected in 2012 exclusively.

Conclusions

BA9, BA10, and ON1 were the only HRSV genotypes detected between 2012 and 2017. Variations in the G gene amino acid chain were identified in local strains, which suggests an increased need for continuous genomic surveillance.

Comparative analysis of RSV-related hospitalisations in children and adults over a 7 year-period before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

RSV is an important cause for respiratory illness in children and the elderly. We analysed RSV seasons since 2016 in both age groups for differences, similarities and timely associations before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We studied epidemiological and clinical features of seven consecutive RSV seasons since 2016 retrospectively in children and adults who were systematically monitored for RSV infections by PCR when hospitalized in Regensburg, Germany.

RESULTS

Data from 1903 RSV positive, hospitalised patients were analysed (1446 children, 457 adults). We observed a complete absence of RSV associated hospitalizations in season 2020/2021. While in the season of 2021/2022, RSV associated hospitalizations in children returned to considerable numbers earlier than expected, hospitalizations in the elderly were still mitigated during that season in temporal association with the continuation of NPI measures for COVID-19 in the elderly until summer of 2022. Overall, children were hospitalized more often for RSV, while the elderly showed more severe outcomes. RSV hospitalisations continuously increase in both age groups, following a bi-annual pattern of severe and less severe seasons, which was not altered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

CONCLUSION

We demonstrate the relation between RSV waves in children and the elderly. NPI measures may protect the elderly from RSV infections and epidemiological data could be used to predict RSV waves early enough to prepare countermeasures.

Estimating the burden of adult hospitalized RSV infection including special populations

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies in the U.S. have made estimates of the RSV burden among adults that vary widely due to differences in methodology, reliance on influenza surveillance, which does not adequately capture all RSV clinical symptoms, and lack of diagnostic methods to identify RSV when viral loads are low. Nevertheless, accurate burden estimates can inform healthcare planning, resource allocation and potentially, RSV vaccine policy.

METHODS

A simple method combined with statewide and local hospitalization, medical record and U.S. Census data were used to estimate population-based RSV hospitalization burden among adults ages 18-64 years, ≥65 years, and including immunocompetent, immunocompromised and pregnant individuals during 2015-2018 for Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. Economic burden of hospitalization was estimated using state-provided average hospitalization charges for comparisons across patient groups.

RESULTS

The largest burden was borne by adults ≥ 65 years of age whose rates per 100,000 population of that age group (939/100,000) were 7.0-9.0 times those of adults 18-64 years of age (118/100,000). Immunosuppressed patients bore the greatest relative burden of RSV hospitalizations (1,288-1,562/100,000 immunosuppressed individuals). RSV burden ranged from 0 to 808/100,000 pregnant women. Average total charges for RSV hospitalization in Allegheny County across all adults increased from $39 million in 2015-2016 to $57 million in 2016-2017 to $89 million in 2017-2018, due to both increased average charges for an acute respiratory hospitalization and increased numbers of RSV cases.

CONCLUSIONS

These RSV burden estimates add to the body of knowledge to guide public health policy makers and offer a method for simply and easily producing population-based burden estimates.

European multicenter evaluation of Xpert® Xpress SARS-CoV-2/Flu/RSV test

Rapid diagnostics for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) are paramount for reducing the spread of the current pandemic. During additional seasonal epidemics with influenza A/B and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), the clinical signs and symptoms cannot be distinguished easily from SARS‐CoV‐2. Therefore, a new assay combining four targets in the form of the new Xpert Xpress SARS‐CoV‐2/Flu/RSV assay was evaluated. The assay was compared to the Xpert Xpress SARS‐CoV‐2, Xpert Xpress Flu/RSV, Seegene Flu/RSV, influenza A/B r‐gene® and RSV/hMPV r‐gene®. A total of 295 nasopharyngeal and throat swabs were tested at four institutes throughout Europe including 72 samples positive for SARS‐CoV‐2, 65 for influenza A, 47 for influenza B, and 77 for RSV. The sensitivity of the new assay was above 95% for all targets, with the highest for SARS‐CoV‐2 (97.2%). The overall correlation of SARS‐CoV‐2 Ct values between Xpert Xpress SARS‐CoV‐2 assay and Xpert Xpress SARS‐CoV‐2/Flu/RSV assay was high. The agreement between Ct values above 30 showed the multiplex giving higher Ct values for SARS‐CoV‐2 on average than the singleplex assay. In conclusion, the new assay is a rapid and reliable alternative with less hands‐on time for the detection of not one, but four upper respiratory tract pathogens that may circulate at the same time.

Recommendations for respiratory syncytial virus surveillance at national level

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections and hospitalisations among young children and is globally responsible for many deaths in young children, especially in infants aged <6 months. Furthermore, RSV is a common cause of severe respiratory disease and hospitalisation among older adults. The development of new candidate vaccines and monoclonal antibodies highlights the need for reliable surveillance of RSV. In the European Union (EU), no up-to-date general recommendations on RSV surveillance are currently available. Based on outcomes of a workshop with 29 European experts in the field of RSV virology, epidemiology and public health, we provide recommendations for developing a feasible and sustainable national surveillance strategy for RSV that will enable harmonisation and data comparison at the European level. We discuss three surveillance components: active sentinel community surveillance, active sentinel hospital surveillance and passive laboratory surveillance, using the EU acute respiratory infection and World Health Organization (WHO) extended severe acute respiratory infection case definitions. Furthermore, we recommend the use of quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR-based assays as the standard detection method for RSV and virus genetic characterisation, if possible, to monitor genetic evolution. These guidelines provide a basis for good quality, feasible and affordable surveillance of RSV. Harmonisation of surveillance standards at the European and global level will contribute to the wider availability of national level RSV surveillance data for regional and global analysis, and for estimation of RSV burden and the impact of future immunisation programmes.

Recommendations for developing a feasible and sustainable national surveillance strategy for respiratory syncytial virus that will enable harmonisation and data comparison at the European level.https://bit.ly/3rWUOOI

Phase 1 Safety and Immunogenicity Study of a Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccine With an Adenovirus 26 Vector Encoding Prefusion F (Ad26.RSV.preF) in Adults Aged ≥60 Years

BACKGROUND

Despite the high disease burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in older adults, there is no approved vaccine. We evaluated the experimental RSV vaccine, Ad26.RSV.preF, a replication-incompetent adenovirus 26 vector encoding the F protein stabilized in prefusion conformation.

METHODS

This phase 1 clinical trial was performed in healthy adults aged ≥60 years. Seventy-two participants received 1 or 2 intramuscular injections of low-dose (LD; 5 × 1010 vector particles) or high-dose (HD; 1 × 1011 vector particles) Ad26.RSV.preF vaccine or placebo, with approximately 12 months between doses and 2-year follow-up for safety and immunogenicity outcomes.

RESULTS

Solicited adverse events were reported by 44% of vaccine recipients and were transient and mild or moderate in intensity. No serious adverse events were related to vaccination. After the first vaccination, geometric mean titers for RSV-A2 neutralization increased from baseline (432 for LD and 512 for HD vaccine) to day 29 (1031 for LD and 1617 for HD). Pre-F-specific antibody geometric mean titers and median frequencies of F-specific interferon γ-secreting T cells also increased substantially from baseline. These immune responses were still maintained above baseline levels 2 years after immunization and could be boosted with a second immunization at 1 year.

CONCLUSIONS

Ad26.RSV.preF (LD and HD) had an acceptable safety profile and elicited sustained humoral and cellular immune responses after a single immunization in older adults.

Prevention of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Healthy Adults by a Single Immunization of Ad26.RSV.preF in a Human Challenge Study

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a significant cause of severe lower respiratory tract disease in children and older adults, but has no approved vaccine. This study assessed the potential of Ad26.RSV.preF to protect against RSV infection and disease in an RSV human challenge model.

METHODS

In this double-blind, placebo-controlled study, healthy adults aged 18-50 years were randomized 1:1 to receive 1x1011 vp Ad26.RSV.preF or placebo intramuscularly. Twenty-eight days post-immunization, volunteers were challenged intranasally with RSV-A (Memphis 37b). Assesments included viral load (VL), RSV infections, clinical symptom score (CSS), safety and immunogenicity.

RESULTS

Post-challenge, VL, RSV infections and disease severity were lower in Ad26.RSV.preF (n=27) versus placebo (n=26) recipients: median VL-AUC (area under the curve) qRT-PCR: 0.0 versus 236.0 (P=.012; predefined primary endpoint); median VL-AUC quantitative culture: 0.0 versus 109; RSV infections 11 (40.7%) versus 17 (65.4%); median RSV AUC-CSS 35 versus 167, respectively. From baseline to 28 days post-immunization, geometric mean fold-increases in RSV A2 neutralizing antibody titers of 5.8 and 0.9 were observed in Ad26.RSV.preF and placebo, respectively. Ad26.RSV.preF was well tolerated.

CONCLUSIONS

Ad26.RSV.preF demonstrated protection from RSV infection through immunization in a human challenge model, and therefore could potentially protect against natural RSV infection and disease.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT03334695.

Safety and Immunogenicity of the Ad26.RSV.preF Investigational Vaccine Coadministered With an Influenza Vaccine in Older Adults

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza cause significant disease burden in older adults. Overlapping RSV and influenza seasonality presents the opportunity to coadminister vaccines for both infections. This study assessed coadministration of the investigational vaccine, Ad26.RSV.preF, an adenovirus serotype 26 (Ad26) vector encoding RSV F protein stabilized in its prefusion conformation (pre-F), with a seasonal influenza vaccine in older adults.

Methods

In this phase 2a, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, 180 adults aged ≥60 years received Ad26.RSV.preF plus Fluarix on day 1 and placebo on day 29, or placebo plus Fluarix on day 1 and Ad26.RSV.preF on day 29 (control).

Results

The coadministration regimen had an acceptable tolerability profile. Reactogenicity was generally higher after Ad26.RSV.preF versus Fluarix, but symptoms were generally transient and mild or moderate. At 28 days after the first vaccination, the upper confidence intervals of the hemagglutination inhibition antibody geometric mean ratio (control/coadministration) for all influenza strains were &lt;2, demonstrating noninferiority. Robust neutralizing and binding antibody responses to RSV A2 were observed in both groups.

Conclusions

Coadministration of Fluarix with Ad26.RSV.preF vaccine had an acceptable safety profile and showed no evidence of interference in immune response. The results are compatible with simultaneous seasonal vaccination with both vaccines.

Clinical Trials Registration

NCT03339713.

Influenza-associated mortality in South Africa, 2009-2013: The importance of choices related to influenza infection proxies

Background

Regression modeling methods are commonly used to estimate influenza‐associated mortality using covariates such as laboratory‐confirmed influenza activity in the population as a proxy of influenza incidence.

Objective

We examined the choices of influenza proxies that can be used from influenza laboratory surveillance data and their impact on influenza‐associated mortality estimates.

Method

Semiparametric generalized additive models with a smoothing spline were applied on national mortality data from South Africa and influenza surveillance data as covariates to obtain influenza‐associated mortality estimates from respiratory causes from 2009 to 2013. Proxies examined included alternative ways of expressing influenza laboratory surveillance data such as weekly or yearly proportion or rate of positive samples, using influenza subtypes, or total influenza data and expressing the data as influenza season‐specific or across all seasons.

Result

Based on model fit, weekly proportion and influenza subtype‐specific proxy formulation provided the best fit. The choice of proxies used gave large differences to mortality estimates, but the 95% confidence interval of these estimates overlaps.

Conclusion

Regardless of proxy chosen, mortality estimates produced may be broadly consistent and not statistically significant for public health practice.

Retrospective Observational Study of Atypical Winter Respiratory Illness Season Using Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance, England, 2014-15

During winter 2014-15, England experienced severe strains on acute health services. We investigated whether syndromic surveillance could contribute to understanding of the unusually high level of healthcare needs. We compared trends for several respiratory syndromic indicators from that winter to historical baselines. Cumulative and mean incidence rates were compared by winter and age group. All-age influenza-like illness was at expected levels; however, severe asthma and pneumonia levels were above those expected. Across several respiratory indicators, cumulative incidence rates during 2014-15 were similar to those of previous years, but higher for older persons; we saw increased rates of acute respiratory disease, including influenza like illness, severe asthma, and pneumonia, in the 65-74- and >75-year age groups. Age group-specific statistical algorithms may provide insights into the burden on health services and improve early warning in future winters.

Is the onset of influenza in the community age-related?

We studied the spread of influenza in the community between 1993 and 2009 using primary-care surveillance data to investigate if the onset of influenza was age-related. Virus detections [A(H3N2), B, A(H1N1)] and clinical incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) in 12·3 million person-years in the long-running Royal College of General Practitioners-linked clinical-virological surveillance programme in England & Wales were examined. The number of days between symptom onset and the all-age peak ILI incidence were compared by age group for each influenza type/subtype. We found that virus detection and ILI incidence increase, peak and decrease were in unison. The mean interval between symptom onset to peak ILI incidence in virus detections (all ages) was: A(H3N2) 20·5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 19·7-21·6] days; B, 18·8 (95% CI 15·8·0-21·7) days; and A(H1N1) 17·0 (95% CI 15·6-18·4) days. Differences by age group were examined using the Kruskal-Wallis test. For A(H3N2) and A(H1N1) viruses the interval was similar in each age group. For influenza B there were highly significant differences by age group (P = 0·0001). Clinical incidence rates of ILI reported in the 8 weeks preceding the period of influenza virus activity were used to estimate a baseline incidence and threshold value (upper 95% CI of estimate) which was used as a marker of epidemic progress. Differences between the age groups in the week in which the threshold was reached were small and not localized to any age group. In conclusion we found no evidence to suggest that influenza A(H3N2) and A(H1N1) occurs in the community in one age group before another. For influenza B, virus detection was earlier in children aged 5-14 years than in persons aged ⩾25 years.

Model estimates of the burden of outpatient visits attributable to influenza in the United States

Background

Although many studies have modelled the national burdens of hospitalizations and deaths due to influenza, few studies have considered the outpatient burden. To fill this gap for the United States (US), we applied traditional statistical modelling approaches to time series derived from large medical claims databases held in the private sector.

Methods

We accessed ICD-9-coded office visit data extracted from Truven Health Analytics’ MarketScan Commercial database covering about one third of the US population <65 years during 2001–2009, and Medicare Supplemental data covering about one fifth of US seniors 65+ during 2006–2009. We extracted weekly time series of visits due to respiratory diagnoses, otitis media (OM), and urinary tract infections (UTI), a “negative control”. We used multiple linear regression modelling to estimate age-specific influenza-related excess in office visits.

Results

In the <65 year age group, in the 8 pre-pandemic seasons studied and for the broadest defined respiratory outcome, the model attributed an average of ~14.5 M (Standard deviation [SD] across seasons 3.9 million) office visits to influenza (rate of 5,581/100,000 population). Of these, ~80 % of visits occurred in the 5–17 and 18–49 age group. In school children aged 5–17 year olds and adult 18–64 year age groups the majority of visits were due to influenza B, while A/H3N2 explained most visits in children <5 year olds. The model further attributed ~2.2 M OM visits (SD across seasons 790,000) annually to influenza, of which 86 % of these occurred in children <18 years; this indicates that 6.4 % of all infants <2 years and 4.9 % of all toddlers aged 2–4 years in the US have an influenza-attributable outpatient visit with an OM diagnosis. In seniors 65 years and older, our model attributed ~0.7 M (SD across seasons 351,000) respiratory visits to influenza (rate of 1,887/100,000 population). The model identified no significant excess UTI (negative control) visits in most seasons.

Conclusions

This is to our knowledge a first study of the outpatient burden of influenza in the US in a large database. The model estimated that 10 % of all children <18 years and 4 % of the entire population <65 years seek outpatient care for respiratory illness attributable to influenza annually.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrial.gov, NCT02019732.

Hypertonic saline (HS) for acute bronchiolitis: Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute bronchiolitis is the commonest cause of hospitalisation in infancy. Currently management consists of supportive care and oxygen. A Cochrane review concluded that, "nebulised 3 % saline may significantly reduce the length of hospital stay". We conducted a systematic review of controlled trials of nebulised hypertonic saline (HS) for infants hospitalised with primary acute bronchiolitis.

METHODS

Searches to January 2015 involved: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; Ovid MEDLINE; Embase; Google Scholar; Web of Science; and, a variety of trials registers. We hand searched Chest, Paediatrics and Journal of Paediatrics on 14 January 2015. Reference lists of eligible trial publications were checked. Randomised or quasi-randomised trials which compared HS versus either normal saline (+/- adjunct treatment) or no treatment were included. Eligible studies involved children less than 2 years old hospitalised due to the first episode of acute bronchiolitis. Two reviewers extracted data to calculate mean differences (MD) and 95 % Confidence Intervals (CIs) for length of hospital stay (LoS-primary outcome), Clinical Severity Score (CSS) and Serious Adverse Events (SAEs). Meta-analysis was undertaken using a fixed effect model, supplemented with additional sensitivity analyses. We investigated statistical heterogeneity using I(2). Risk of bias, within and between studies, was assessed using the Cochrane tool, an outcome reporting bias checklist and a funnel plot.

RESULTS

Fifteen trials were included in the systematic review (n = 1922), HS reduced mean LoS by 0.36, (95 % CI 0.50 to 0.22) days, but with considerable heterogeneity (I(2) = 78 %) and sensitivity to alternative analysis methods. A reduction in CSS was observed where assessed [n = 516; MD -1.36, CI -1.52, -1.20]. One trial reported one possible intervention related SAE, no other studies described intervention related SAEs.

CONCLUSIONS

There is disparity between the overall combined effect on LoS as compared with the negative results from the largest and most precise trials. Together with high levels of heterogeneity, this means that neither individual trials nor pooled estimates provide a firm evidence-base for routine use of HS in inpatient acute bronchiolitis.

Saline in acute bronchiolitis RCT and economic evaluation: hypertonic saline in acute bronchiolitis - randomised controlled trial and systematic review

BACKGROUND

Acute bronchiolitis is the most common cause of hospitalisation in infancy. Supportive care and oxygen are the cornerstones of management. A Cochrane review concluded that the use of nebulised 3% hypertonic saline (HS) may significantly reduce the duration of hospitalisation.

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that HS reduces the time to when infants were assessed as being fit for discharge, defined as in air with saturations of > 92% for 6 hours, by 25%.

DESIGN

Parallel-group, pragmatic randomised controlled trial, cost-utility analysis and systematic review.

SETTING

Ten UK hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

Infants with acute bronchiolitis requiring oxygen therapy were allocated within 4 hours of admission.

INTERVENTIONS

Supportive care with oxygen as required, minimal handling and fluid administration as appropriate to the severity of the disease, 3% nebulised HS every ± 6 hours.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The trial primary outcome was time until the infant met objective discharge criteria. Secondary end points included time to discharge and adverse events. The costs analysed related to length of stay (LoS), readmissions, nebulised saline and other NHS resource use. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated using an existing utility decrement derived for hospitalisation in children, together with the time spent in hospital in the trial.

DATA SOURCES

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and other databases from inception or from 2010 onwards, searched ClinicalTrials.gov and other registries and hand-searched Chest, Paediatrics and Journal of Paediatrics to January 2015.

REVIEW METHODS

We included randomised/quasi-randomised trials which compared HS versus saline (± adjunct treatment) or no treatment. We used a fixed-effects model to combine mean differences for LoS and assessed statistical heterogeneity using the I (2) statistic.

RESULTS

The trial randomised 158 infants to HS (n = 141 analysed) and 159 to standard care (n = 149 analysed). There was no difference between the two arms in the time to being declared fit for discharge [median 76.6 vs. 75.9 hours, hazard ratio (HR) 0.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75 to 1.20] or to actual discharge (median 88.5 vs. 88.7 hours, HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.23). There was no difference in adverse events. One infant developed bradycardia with desaturation associated with HS. Mean hospital costs were £2595 and £2727 for the control and intervention groups, respectively (p = 0.657). Incremental QALYs were 0.0000175 (p = 0.757). An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £7.6M per QALY gained was not appreciably altered by sensitivity analyses. The systematic review comprised 15 trials (n = 1922) including our own. HS reduced the mean LoS by -0.36 days (95% CI -0.50 to -0.22 days). High levels of heterogeneity (I (2) = 78%) indicate that the result should be treated cautiously.

CONCLUSIONS

In this trial, HS had no clinical benefit on LoS or readiness for discharge and was not a cost-effective treatment for acute bronchiolitis. Claims that HS achieves small reductions in LoS must be treated with scepticism.

FUTURE WORK

Well-powered randomised controlled trials of high-flow oxygen are needed.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as NCT01469845 and CRD42014007569.

FUNDING DETAILS

This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment (HTA) programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 66. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

Superinfection between influenza and RSV alternating patterns in San Luis Potosí State, México

The objective of this paper is to explain through the ecological hypothesis superinfection and competitive interaction between two viral populations and niche (host) availability, the alternating patterns of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and influenza observed in a regional hospital in San Luis Potosí State, México using a mathematical model as a methodological tool. The data analyzed consists of community-based and hospital-based Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) consultations provided by health-care institutions reported to the State Health Service Epidemiology Department from 2003 through 2009.

Seasonal incidence of medically attended respiratory syncytial virus infection in a community cohort of adults ≥50 years old

BACKGROUND

Diagnostic testing for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is not routinely performed in adults. We estimated medically attended RSV seasonal incidence in a community cohort of adults ≥50 years old during four influenza seasons (2006-07 through 2009-10).

METHODS

Patients seeking care for acute respiratory illness (ARI) were prospectively enrolled and tested for RSV by multiplex RT-PCR. Results from enrolled patients were used to estimate projected cases among non-enrolled patients with ARI. The seasonal incidence of medically attended RSV was the sum of actual and projected cases divided by the community cohort denominator. Since each enrollment period did not include the entire RSV season, incidence estimates were adjusted to account for the statewide proportion of RSV occurring outside the study enrollment period.

RESULTS

There were 16,088 to 17,694 adults in the cohort each season and 164 RSV cases in all 4 seasons. The overall seasonal incidence of medically attended RSV was 154 episodes (95% CI, 132-180) per 10,000 persons; the incidence was highest in 2007-08 (179) and lowest in 2006-07 (110). Among persons 50-59, 60-69, and ≥70 years old, RSV incidence was 124 (95% CI, 99-156), 147 (95% CI, 110-196), and 199 (95% CI, 153-258), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of medically attended RSV increased with age and was similar during four seasons.

Estimates of mortality attributable to influenza and RSV in the United States during 1997-2009 by influenza type or subtype, age, cause of death, and risk status

BACKGROUND

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cause substantial mortality from respiratory and other causes in the USA, especially among people aged 65 and older.

OBJECTIVES

We estimated the influenza-attributable mortality and RSV-attributable mortality in the USA, stratified by age and risk status, using outcome definitions with different sensitivity and specificity.

METHODS

Influenza- and RSV-associated mortality was assessed from October 1997-March 2009 using multiple linear regression modeling on data obtained from designated government repositories.

RESULTS

The main outcomes and measures included mortality outcome definitions-pneumonia and influenza, respiratory broad, and cardiorespiratory disease. A seasonal average of 10,682 (2287-16,363), 19,100 (4862-29,245), and 28,169 (6797-42,316) deaths was attributed to influenza for pneumonia and influenza, respiratory broad, and cardiorespiratory outcome definitions, respectively. Corresponding values for RSV were 6211 (4584-8169), 11,300 (8546-14,244), and 17,199 (13,384-21,891), respectively. A/H3N2 accounted for seasonal average of 71% influenza-attributable deaths; influenza B accounted for most (51-95%) deaths during four seasons. Approximately 70% influenza-attributable deaths occurred in individuals ≥75 years, with increasing mortality for influenza A/H3N2 and B, but not A/H1N1. In children aged 0-4 years, an average of 97 deaths was attributed to influenza (A/H3N2 = 49, B = 33, A/H1N1 = 15) and 165 to respiratory broad outcome definition (RSV). Influenza-attributable mortality was 2.94-fold higher in high-risk individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza-attributable mortality was highest in older and high-risk individuals and mortality in children was higher than reported in passive Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance. Influenza B-attributable mortality was higher than A in four of 12 seasons. Our estimates represent an updated assessment of influenza-attributable mortality in the USA.

A robust parameter estimation method for estimating disease burden of respiratory viruses

BACKGROUND

Poisson model has been widely applied to estimate the disease burden of influenza, but there has been little success in providing reliable estimates for other respiratory viruses.

METHODS

We compared the estimates of excess hospitalization rates derived from the Poisson models with different combinations of inference methods and virus proxies respectively, with the aim to determine the optimal modeling approach. These models were validated by comparing the estimates of excess hospitalization attributable to respiratory viruses with the observed rates of laboratory confirmed paediatric hospitalization for acute respiratory infections obtained from a population based study.

RESULTS

The Bayesian inference method generally outperformed the classical likelihood estimation, particularly for RSV and parainfluenza, in terms of providing estimates closer to the observed hospitalization rates. Compared to the other proxy variables, age-specific positive counts provided better estimates for influenza, RSV and parainfluenza, regardless of inference methods. The Bayesian inference combined with age-specific positive counts also provided valid and reliable estimates for excess hospitalization associated with multiple respiratory viruses in both the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and interpandemic period.

CONCLUSIONS

Poisson models using the Bayesian inference method and virus proxies of age-specific positive counts should be considered in disease burden studies on multiple respiratory viruses.

Medically attended respiratory syncytial virus infections in adults aged ≥ 50 years: clinical characteristics and outcomes

BACKGROUND

Few studies have examined respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in adults. We assessed the characteristics and outcomes of RSV relative to other viral infections.

METHODS

Patients ≥ 50 years old with acute respiratory illness were recruited for studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness from 2004 through 2010. Nasopharyngeal swabs from enrollees were analyzed for the presence of RSV and other respiratory viruses by multiplex reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Clinical data were obtained from interview and medical records.

RESULTS

A total of 2225 samples were tested across all seasons. The mean age was 64.2 (SD, 10.7) years; the mean interval from illness onset to sample collection was 4 (SD, 2.2) days. One or more viruses were detected in 1202 (54%) participants. In a multivariable logistic regression model, RSV was associated with ages 65-79 years (vs 50-64 years), symptoms of cough, nasal congestion and wheezing, and longer interval from illness onset to clinical encounter. RSV was not associated with the presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or congestive heart failure in univariate analyses. Hospital admission within 30 days after illness onset was less common among patients with RSV compared to those with influenza (unadjusted odds ratio = 0.54 [95% confidence interval, .29-1.01], P = .06).

CONCLUSIONS

RSV is a common cause of acute respiratory illness in adults aged ≥ 50 years; the risk of infection increases with age. Delays in healthcare seeking and reduced risk of hospital admission in patients with RSV suggest a milder course of illness relative to influenza.

RSV vaccine in development: assessing the potential cost-effectiveness in the Dutch elderly population

OBJECTIVES

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is increasingly recognized as an important cause of morbidity, mortality and health-care utilization in the elderly population. A theoretical model was built to assess the levels of vaccine effectiveness and vaccine costs for which a hypothetical RSV-vaccine for Dutch elderly could be cost-effective.

METHODS

Different vaccination strategies were evaluated by changing the levels of vaccine effectiveness and the willingness to pay per quality-adjusted life year gained (QALY). Outcome measures included direct medical costs, QALYs, life years gained, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and the maximum total vaccination costs per individual (i.e. (vaccine price+administration costs)×nr of doses) while remaining cost-effective.

RESULTS

Using base-case assumptions, it was estimated that vaccination of all persons 60 years and older would prevent 3402GP visits, 2989 antibiotic prescriptions, 535 hospitalizations and 249 deaths and would cost €73,261 per QALY, for a vaccine effectiveness of 70%. Vaccinating only the high risk population of 60 years and older would reduce the estimates to 2042GP visits, 2009 antibiotic prescriptions, 179 hospitalizations and 209 deaths and this reduced the cost per QALY to €34,796 per QALY. Using the same assumptions, the maximum total vaccination costs per individual ranged from €26 when vaccinating all persons 60 and older to €68 when vaccinating only persons aged 85 and above, using a willingness to pay threshold of €50,000 per QALY. For the high risk population aged 60 years and older the estimated maximum total vaccination costs ranged from €52 to €99.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination of Dutch elderly against RSV was found cost-effective for several scenarios. As expected, vaccination is more likely to be cost-effective when only including persons who are at increased risk for contracting RSV or the potential complications of RSV. This theoretical study shows that based on the disease burden in the Dutch population aged 60yrs and older there is potential to develop a vaccine that might be considered cost-effective in the Netherlands.

Cost-effectiveness of potential infant vaccination against respiratory syncytial virus infection in The Netherlands

INTRODUCTION

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is one of the major causes of respiratory illness in infants, infecting virtually every child before the age of 2 years. Currently, several Phase 1 trials with RSV vaccines in infants are ongoing or have been completed. As yet, no efficacy estimates are available for these vaccine candidates. Nevertheless, cost-effectiveness estimates might be informative to enable preliminary positioning of an RSV vaccine.

METHODS

A decision analysis model was developed in which a Dutch birth cohort was followed for 12 months. A number of potential vaccination strategies were reviewed such as vaccination at specific ages, a two- or three-dosing scheme and seasonal vaccination versus year-round vaccination. The impact of the assumptions made was explored in various sensitivity analyses, including probabilistic analysis. Outcome measures included the number of GP visits, hospitalizations and deaths, costs, quality-adjusted life years and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

RESULTS

Currently, without vaccination, an annual number of 28,738 of RSV-related GP visits, 1623 hospitalizations, and 4.5 deaths are estimated in children in the age of 0-1 year. The total annual cost to society of RSV in the non-vaccination scenario is €7.7 million (95%CI: 1.7-16.7) and the annual disease burden is estimated at 597 QALYs (95%CI: 133-1319). In case all infants would be offered a potentially safe and effective 3-dose RSV vaccination scheme at the age of 0, 1 and 3 months, the total annual net costs were estimated to increase to €21.2 million, but 544 hospitalizations and 1.5 deaths would be averted. The ICER was estimated at €34,142 (95%CI: € 21,652-€ 87,766) per QALY gained. A reduced dose schedule, seasonal vaccination, and consideration of out-of-pocket expenses all resulted in more favorable ICER values, whereas a reduced vaccine efficacy or a delay in the timing of vaccination resulted in less favorable ICERs.

DISCUSSION

Our model used recently updated estimates on the burden of RSV disease in children and it included plausible utilities. However, due to the absence of clinical trial data, a number of crucial assumptions had to be made related to the characteristics of potential RSV vaccine. The outcomes of our modeling exercise show that vaccination of infants against RSV might be cost-effective. However, clinical trial data are warranted.

Ten lessons for the next influenza pandemic-an English perspective: a personal reflection based on community surveillance data

We review experience in England of the swine flu pandemic between May 2009 and April 2010. The surveillance data from the Royal College of General Practitioners Weekly Returns Service and the linked virological data collected in the integrated program with the Health Protection Agency are used as a reference frame to consider issues emerging during the pandemic. Ten lessons are summarized. (1) Delay between illness onset in the first worldwide cases and virological diagnosis restricted opportunities for containment by regional prophylaxis. (2) Pandemic vaccines are unlikely to be available for effective prevention during the first wave of a pandemic. (3) Open, realistic and continuing communication with the public is important. (4) Surveillance programs should be continued through summer as well as winter. (5) Severity of illness should be incorporated in pandemic definition. (6) The reliability of diagnostic tests as used in routine clinical practice calls for further investigation. (7) Evidence from serological studies is not consistent with evidence based on health care requests made by sick persons and is thus of limited value in cost effectiveness studies. (8) Pregnancy is an important risk factor. (9) New strategies for administering vaccines need to be explored. (10) Acceptance by the public and by health professionals of influenza vaccination as the major plank on which the impact of influenza is controlled has still not been achieved.

Absenteeism in schools during the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic: a useful tool for early detection of influenza activity in the community?

Certain influenza outbreaks, including the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, can predominantly affect school-age children. Therefore the use of school absenteeism data has been considered as a potential tool for providing early warning of increasing influenza activity in the community. This study retrospectively evaluates the usefulness of these data by comparing them with existing syndromic surveillance systems and laboratory data. Weekly mean percentages of absenteeism in 373 state schools (children aged 4-18 years) in Birmingham, UK, from September 2006 to September 2009, were compared with established syndromic surveillance systems including a telephone health helpline, a general practitioner sentinel network and laboratory data for influenza. Correlation coefficients were used to examine the relationship between each syndromic system. In June 2009, school absenteeism generally peaked concomitantly with the existing influenza surveillance systems in England. Weekly school absenteeism surveillance would not have detected pandemic influenza A(H1N1) earlier but daily absenteeism data and the development of baselines could improve the timeliness of the system.

The use of a neonatal mouse model to study respiratory syncytial virus infections

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is the most significant cause of viral death in infants worldwide. The significant morbidity and mortality associated with this disease underscores the urgent need for the development of an RSV vaccine. The development of an RSV vaccine has been hampered by our limited understanding of the human host immune system, which plays a significant role in RSV pathogenesis, susceptibility and vaccine efficacy. As a result, animal models have been developed to better understand the mechanisms by which RSV causes disease. Within the past few years, a revolutionary variation on these animal models has emerged--age at time of initial infection--and early studies in neonatal mice (aged <7 days at time of initial infection) indicate the validity of this model to understand RSV infection in infants. This article reviews available information on current murine and emerging neonatal mouse RSV models.

Immunomodulation with IL-4R alpha antisense oligonucleotide prevents respiratory syncytial virus-mediated pulmonary disease

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant morbidity and mortality in infants worldwide. Severe RSV infections in infants cause bronchiolitis, wheeze, and/or cough and significantly increase the risk for developing asthma. RSV pathogenesis is thought to be due to a Th2-type immune response initiated in response to RSV infection, specifically in the infant. Using a neonatal mouse system as an appropriate model for human infants, we sought to determine whether local inhibition of IL-4Rα expression during primary RSV infection in the neonate would prevent Th2-skewed responses to secondary RSV infection and improve long-term pulmonary function. To reduce IL-4Rα expression, antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs) specific for IL-4Rα were administered intranasally to neonatal mice at the time of primary infection. Mice were initially infected with RSV at 1 wk of age and were reinfected at 6 wk of age. Administration of IL-4Rα ASOs during primary RSV infection in neonatal mice abolished the pulmonary dysfunction normally observed following reinfection in the adult. This ablation of pulmonary dysfunction correlated with a persistent rebalancing of the Th cell compartment with decreased Th2 responses (i.e., reduced goblet cell hyperplasia, Th2 cells, and cytokine secretion) and increased Th1 responses (i.e., elevated Th1 cell numbers and type I Abs and cytokines). Our data support our hypothesis that a reduction in the Th2 immune response during primary infection in neonates prevents Th2-mediated pulmonary pathology initially and upon reinfection and further suggest that vaccine strategies incorporating IL-4Rα ASOs may be of significant benefit to infants.

Assessing the burden of paediatric influenza in Europe: the European Paediatric Influenza Analysis (EPIA) project

The European Paediatric Influenza Analysis (EPIA) project is a multi-country project that was created to collect, analyse and present data regarding the paediatric influenza burden in European countries, with the purpose of providing the necessary information to make evidence-based decisions regarding influenza immunisation recommendations for children. The initial approach taken is based on existing weekly virological and age-specific influenza-like illness (ILI) data from surveillance networks across Europe. We use a multiple regression model guided by longitudinal weekly patterns of influenza virus to attribute the weekly ILI consultation incidence pattern to each influenza (sub)type, while controlling for the effect of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemics. Modelling the ILI consultation incidence during 2002/2003-2008 revealed that influenza infections that presented for medical attention as ILI affected between 0.3% and 9.8% of children aged 0-4 and 5-14 years in England, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain in an average season. With the exception of Spain, these rates were always higher in children aged 0-4 years. Across the six seasons analysed (five seasons were analysed from the Italian data), the model attributed 47-83% of the ILI burden in primary care to influenza virus infection in the various countries, with the A(H3N2) virus playing the most important role, followed by influenza viruses B and A(H1N1). National season averages from the four countries studied indicated that between 0.4% and 18% of children consulted a physician for ILI, with the percentage depending on the country and health care system. Influenza virus infections explained the majority of paediatric ILI consultations in all countries. The next step will be to apply the EPIA modelling approach to severe outcomes indicators (i.e. hospitalisations and mortality data) to generate a complete range of mild and severe influenza burden estimates needed for decision making concerning paediatric influenza vaccination.

Fatal cases of influenza a in childhood

BACKGROUND

In the northern hemisphere winter of 2003-04 antigenic variant strains (A/Fujian/411/02 -like) of influenza A H3N2 emerged. Circulation of these strains in the UK was accompanied by an unusually high number of laboratory confirmed influenza associated fatalities in children. This study was carried out to better understand risk factors associated with fatal cases of influenza in children.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Case histories, autopsy reports and death registration certificates for seventeen fatal cases of laboratory confirmed influenza in children were analyzed. None had a recognized pre-existing risk factor for severe influenza and none had been vaccinated. Three cases had evidence of significant bacterial co-infection. Influenza strains recovered from fatal cases were antigenically similar to those circulating in the community. A comparison of protective antibody titres in age stratified cohort sera taken before and after winter 2003-04 showed that young children had the highest attack rate during this season (21% difference, 95% confidence interval from 0.09 to 0.33, p = 0.0009). Clinical incidences of influenza-like illness (ILI) in young age groups were shown to be highest only in the years when novel antigenic drift variants emerged.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This work presents a rare insight into fatal influenza H3N2 in healthy children. It confirms that circulating seasonal influenza A H3N2 strains can cause severe disease and death in children in the apparent absence of associated bacterial infection or predisposing risk factors. This adds to the body of evidence demonstrating the burden of severe illness due to seasonal influenza A in childhood.

Common respiratory infections diagnosed in general practice

Acute respiratory infections are one of the most common causes for presentation to a general practitioner. The range of symptoms associated with each infection can be wide ranging in both presentation and severity, depending on age of the patient, underlying co-morbidities and other confounding factors. In this chapter we describe the most common respiratory infections ranging from relatively mild infections such as the common cold, through to more serious presentations including pneumonia. Data are presented from a general practitioner morbidity surveillance system based in England and Wales. Each acute respiratory syndrome is described in respect of seasonality, secular trends and microbiological aetiology providing an insight into the complex nature of these acute respiratory episodes. The more serious endpoints of acute respiratory infections are hospitalisation and death. Many acute respiratory infections are mild in nature and generally self-limiting and therefore do not commonly require further medical interventions. However, despite major advances in the prevention and treatment of acute respiratory infections in recent years, hospitalisation and deaths continue to exert pressures on national health resources and provide an economic burden in countries across the world on an annual basis.

Excess drug prescriptions during influenza and RSV seasons in the Netherlands: potential implications for extended influenza vaccination

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are responsible for considerable morbidity, mortality and health-care resource use. For the Netherlands, we estimated age and risk-group specific numbers of antibiotics, otologicals and cardiovascular prescriptions per 10,000 person-years during periods with elevated activity of influenza or RSV, and compared these with peri-season rates. Data were taken from the University of Groningen in-house prescription database (www.iadb.nl) and virological surveillance for the period 1998-2006. During influenza and RSV periods excess antibiotic prescriptions were estimated for all age groups. In the age groups 0-1 and 2-4 years, excess antibiotic prescriptions during periods with elevated RSV activity (65% and 59% of peri-seasonal rates) exceeded the surpluses estimated during the influenza-activity periods (24% and 34% of peri-seasonal rates) while for otologicals excess prescriptions were higher for influenza (22% and 27%) than for RSV (14% and 17%). Among persons of 50 years and older, notably those without medical high-risk conditions, excess prescriptions for cardiovascular medications were estimated during the influenza periods at approximately 10% (this was also already seen in persons aged 45-49). Our results may have implications for influenza vaccination policies. In particular, extension of influenza vaccination to groups of non-elderly adults and young children may lower excess prescriptions during these influenza periods for all three types of drug prescriptions investigated.

Health benefits, risks, and cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in children

Annual vaccination of all children 6-59 months of age is recommended in the United States but not in most of Europe. This paper reviews issues surrounding the epidemiology of influenza and vaccine effectiveness relevant to the determination of vaccination policy. Most clinical trials of vaccines (and treatments) that provide the evidence for current policy took place in the 1990s when rates of influenza-like illness (ILI) were twice those reported in recent years. The impact of influenza in the community is concealed by the variety of diagnoses appropriate to describing acute respiratory infections. Even in influenza virus active periods diagnoses of coryza, acute bronchitis, and otitis media made by general practitioners greatly exceed those of ILI. Respiratory syncytial virus presents particular problems because it often circulates at the same time as influenza. Thus, the diagnostic uncertainty and variety of respiratory pathogens causing similar illnesses are major confounders when estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness. Although meta-analyses have cast doubt on the wisdom of the universal vaccination of children, high-quality clinical trials have demonstrated efficacy against laboratory-confirmed infection. The distinction between this positive benefit and the wider issue of effectiveness against ILI in the community poses difficulties for determining policy. Mathematical models examining this issue are populated with data that are mostly estimated: therefore, the sensitivity analysis is critical and the conclusions are invariably accompanied by reservations. National policies based on demonstrated cost effectiveness are desirable, but these should not become a barrier to parents wishing to secure a benefit for their child or family, provided there is clear evidence of clinical efficacy.

Lessons from 40 years' surveillance of influenza in England and Wales

The influenza virus continues to pose a significant threat to public health throughout the world. Current avian influenza outbreaks in humans have heightened the need for improved surveillance and planning. Despite recent advances in the development of vaccines and antiviral drugs, seasonal epidemics of influenza continue to contribute significantly to general practitioner workloads, emergency hospital admissions, and deaths. In this paper we review data produced by the Royal College of General Practitioners Weekly Returns Service, a sentinel general practice surveillance network that has been in operation for over 40 years in England and Wales. We show a gradually decreasing trend in the incidence of respiratory illness associated with influenza virus infection (influenza-like illness; ILI) over the 40 years and speculate that there are limits to how far an existing virus can drift and yet produce substantial new epidemics. The burden of disease caused by influenza presented to general practitioners varies considerably by age in each winter. In the pandemic winter of 1969/70 persons of working age were most severely affected; in the serious influenza epidemic of 1989/90 children were particularly affected; in the millennium winter (in which the NHS was severely stretched) ILI was almost confined to adults, especially the elderly. Serious confounders from infections due to respiratory syncytial virus are discussed, especially in relation to assessing influenza vaccine effectiveness. Increasing pressure on hospitals during epidemic periods are shown and are attributed to changing patterns of health-care delivery.

Rate-difference method proved satisfactory in estimating the influenza burden in primary care visits

OBJECTIVE

To compare different methods to estimate the disease burden of influenza, using influenza and respiratory syncytial virus-(RSV) associated primary care data as an example.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

In a retrospective study in the Netherlands over 1997-2003, primary care attended respiratory episodes and national viral surveillance data were used to compare the rate-difference method to other, more complex methods.

RESULTS

The influenza-associated excess estimated by the different methods varied. The estimates provided by the rate-difference model lay well within this range. According to the rate-difference method, influenza-associated primary care consultations were present for all ages, including low-risk adults. The highest influenza-associated burden was demonstrated for children below the age of 5 years. The RSV-associated primary care burden was highest in the youngest age category and well above that associated with influenza. Significant RSV-associated excess was also recorded among adults, particularly in high-risk adults and the elderly.

CONCLUSION

The straightforward rate-difference model seemed satisfactory to estimate the influenza-associated burden. Significant influenza-associated excess was demonstrated among persons not yet recommended for influenza vaccination in The Netherlands. The RSV-associated burden was highest for the youngest children, but also significant for adults.

Can syndromic thresholds provide early warning of national influenza outbreaks?

BACKGROUND

Influenza incidence thresholds are used to help predict the likely impact of influenza and inform health professionals and the public of current activity. We evaluate the potential of syndromic data (calls to a UK health helpline NHS Direct) to provide early warning of national influenza outbreaks.

METHODS

Time series of NHS Direct calls concerning 'cold/flu' and fever syndromes for England and Wales were compared against influenza-like-illness clinical incidence data and laboratory reports of influenza. Poisson regression models were used to derive NHS Direct thresholds. The early warning potential of thresholds was evaluated retrospectively for 2002-06 and prospectively for winter 2006-07.

RESULTS

NHS Direct 'cold/flu' and fever calls generally rose and peaked at the same time as clinical and laboratory influenza data. We derived a national 'cold/flu' threshold of 1.2% of total calls and a fever (5-14 years) threshold of 9%. An initial lower fever threshold of 7.7% was discarded as it produced false alarms. Thresholds provided 2 weeks advanced warning of seasonal influenza activity during three of the four winters studied retrospectively, and 6 days advance warning during prospective evaluation.

CONCLUSION

Syndromic thresholds based on NHS Direct data provide advance warning of influenza circulating in the community. We recommend that age-group specific thresholds be developed for other clinical influenza surveillance systems in the UK and elsewhere.

The state of play in the battle against antimicrobial resistance: a general practitioner perspective

This article summarizes personal reflections from the perspective of general practice on developments with regard to antibiotic resistance and the containment of antibiotic prescribing during the lifetime of the Specialist Advisory Committee on Antimicrobial Resistance in England. These reflections concern the entry of antibiotics into the food chain, recent extensions of prescribing responsibilities and developments towards improved surveillance and reduced antibiotic prescribing. A large gap remains between the scientific appreciation of the risks from antimicrobial resistance and effective means to measure it and thereby hopefully control it.