Syndromic surveillance for local outbreak detection and awareness: evaluating outbreak signals of acute gastroenteritis in telephone triage, web-based queries and over-the-counter pharmacy sales

Comparing healthcare needs by language: interpreted Arabic and Somali telehealth calls in two regions of Sweden, 2014-18

BACKGROUND

Limited language fluency can impede healthcare system navigation. In Sweden, the national telehealth line (Healthcare Guide 1177) offers interpretation in Arabic and Somali. We compared calls by language to identify differences in healthcare use for immigrant populations, focusing on three contact causes: pregnancy; vomiting or nausea in children; and worry/anxiety.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 3.9 million (n = 18 351 Arabic, n = 7199 Somali) telehealth calls (2014-18). Using multivariable logistic regression, we investigated associations between language of the call (Arabic, Somali, non-interpreted) and each contact cause. Potential confounders (age, region, year, and additionally for vomiting or nausea, month) and an interaction between age and language were considered.

RESULTS

Compared with non-interpreted calls, interpreted calls were associated with increased odds of being for pregnancy, especially for 19 to 29-year-olds [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) (95% CI) = 4.04 (3.66-4.46) and 4.60 (4.05-5.23), for Arabic and Somali calls, respectively]. Vomiting or nausea showed similar results, with aOR increasing with age: from 0.90 (0.75-1.07) (Arabic, <1 year) to 3.79 (2.86-5.01) (Somali, 5-9 years). In contrast, in unadjusted analyses, Arabic and Somali calls were associated with decreased odds of being for worry/anxiety [OR = 0.47 (0.38-0.58) and 0.34 (0.21-0.50)], respectively, compared with non-interpreted calls.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest callers to the interpreted lines may need additional assistance navigating the healthcare system for pregnancy and for vomiting or nausea among children. These findings can inform healthcare services planning for immigrants to Sweden and highlight a novel use of telehealth data as a way to uncover disparities in healthcare use within a multi-linguistic population.

Gastroenteritis Outbreaks after Contamination of Water Supply Systems: Public Health Response Gaps and Challenges, Greece, 2004-2023

BACKGROUND

waterborne disease outbreaks (WGDOs) following the contamination of drinking water remain a public health concern.

METHODS

The current study aims to assess the occurrence and identify gaps in the notification and investigation of WGDOs in Greece. Data for 2004-2023 were retrieved and summarized.

RESULTS

Thirty-five outbreaks with 6128 recorded cases were identified. The median time from the date of onset in the first cases to reporting was 7 days (range: 1-26 days). Authorities were informed by health care services in thirty (85.7%) outbreaks and by the media in five (14.3%). The investigation methods used varied. An analytical study was conducted in nine (25.7%) outbreaks and the testing of clinical samples in twenty-seven (77.1%). In three (11.1%) outbreaks, clinical samples were simultaneously tested for multiple bacteria, viruses, and parasites. Water samples were collected in nineteen (54.3%) outbreaks (in three after chlorination) with a mean time lag of 5 days (range: 1-20 days) from the first cases. A pathogen in clinical samples was identified in 20 (57.1%) outbreaks and, in 1 (6.25%), the same microorganism was isolated in both clinical and water samples.

CONCLUSIONS

delays in reporting and the heterogeneity of investigations depict that the surveillance of WGDOs and response practices should be strengthened, and operational procedures should be standardised.

The amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater relates to the development of the pandemic and its burden on the health system

Virus surveillance in wastewater can be a useful indicator of the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in communities. However, knowledge about how the amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater relates to different data on the burden on the health system is still limited. Herein, we monitored the amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and the spectrum of virus variants in weekly pooled wastewater samples for two years from mid-February 2020 and compared with several clinical data. The two-year monitoring showed the weekly changes in the amount of viral RNA in wastewater preceded the hospital care needs for COVID-19 and the number of acute calls on adult acute respiratory distress by 1-2 weeks during the first three waves of COVID-19. Our study demonstrates that virus surveillance in wastewater can predict the development of a pandemic and its burden on the health system, regardless of society's test capacity and possibility of tracking infected cases.

The potential roles of pharmacy medication sales data to augment the syndromic surveillance system in response to COVID-19 and preparedness for other future infectious disease outbreaks in Indonesia

BACKGROUND

Indonesia faces a continuous threat from communicable disease outbreaks. The current COVID-19 outbreak, the previous one of SARS, and many other infectious outbreaks encountered in the country warn of the need to develop comprehensive early warning systems to enable timely health responses in the long run. In this article, we argue that over the counter medication sales data at community pharmacies in Indonesia can potentially augment and increase the detection power of the current syndromic surveillance system, particularly in dealing with COVID-19 and other future infectious disease outbreaks in the country.

MAIN BODY

This article discusses the experience of other countries in employing pharmacy medication sales data to serve as potential syndromic surveillance platform and contribute to pandemic responses. We argue why it is worth considering utilising medication sales data from pharmacies in Indonesia to support the current surveillance system which enables the provision of early warnings of disease outbreaks. We then discuss the potential challenges of operationalising these data and suggest a way forward for the development and implementation of the syndromic surveillance system at community pharmacy settings in Indonesia.

CONCLUSION

While there are several challenges in developing a workable system in Indonesia that need to be addressed, introducing a syndromic surveillance system using pharmacy-setting medication sales data is worth investigating in the country.

The effectiveness of syndromic surveillance for the early detection of waterborne outbreaks: a systematic review

Background

Waterborne outbreaks are still a risk in high-income countries, and their early detection is crucial to limit their societal consequences. Although syndromic surveillance is widely used for the purpose of detecting outbreaks days earlier than traditional surveillance systems, evidence of the effectiveness of such systems is lacking. Thus, our objective was to conduct a systematic review of the effectiveness of syndromic surveillance to detect waterborne outbreaks.

Method

We searched the Cochrane Library, Medline/PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and Web of Science for relevant published articles using a combination of the keywords ‘drinking water’, ‘surveillance’, and ‘waterborne disease’ for the period of 1990 to 2018. The references lists of the identified articles for full-text record assessment were screened, and searches in Google Scholar using the same key words were conducted. We assessed the risk of bias in the included articles using the ROBINS-I tool and PRECEPT for the cumulative body of evidence.

Results

From the 1959 articles identified, we reviewed 52 articles, of which 18 met the eligibility criteria. Twelve were descriptive/analytical studies, whereas six were simulation studies. There is no clear evidence for syndromic surveillance in terms of the ability to detect waterborne outbreaks (low sensitivity and high specificity). However, one simulation study implied that multiple sources of signals combined with spatial information may increase the timeliness in detecting a waterborne outbreak and reduce false alarms.

Conclusion

This review demonstrates that there is no conclusive evidence on the effectiveness of syndromic surveillance for the detection of waterborne outbreaks, thus suggesting the need to focus on primary prevention measures to reduce the risk of waterborne outbreaks. Future studies should investigate methods for combining health and environmental data with an assessment of needed financial and human resources for implementing such surveillance systems. In addition, a more critical thematic narrative synthesis on the most promising sources of data, and an assessment of the basis for arguments that joint analysis of different data or dimensions of data (e.g. spatial and temporal) might perform better, should be carried out.

Trial registration

PROSPERO: International prospective register of systematic reviews. 2019. CRD42019122332.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06387-y.

Large waterborne Campylobacter outbreak: use of multiple approaches to investigate contamination of the drinking water supply system, Norway, June 2019

On 6 June 2019, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health was notified of more than 50 cases of gastroenteritis in Askøy. A reservoir in a water supply system was suspected as the source of the outbreak because of the acute onset and geographical distribution of cases. We investigated the outbreak to confirm the source, extent of the outbreak and effect of control measures. A case was defined as a person in a household served by Water Supply System A (WSS-A) who had gastroenteritis for more than 24 h between 1 and 19 June 2019. We conducted pilot interviews, a telephone survey and an SMS-based cohort study of residents served by WSS-A. System information of WSS-A was collected. Whole genome sequencing on human and environmental isolates was performed. Among 6,108 individuals, 1,573 fulfilled the case definition. Residents served by the reservoir had a 4.6× higher risk of illness than others. Campylobacter jejuni isolated from cases (n = 24) and water samples (n = 4) had identical core genome MLST profiles. Contamination through cracks in the reservoir most probably occurred during heavy rainfall. Water supply systems are susceptible to contamination, particularly to certain weather conditions. This highlights the importance of water safety planning and risk-based surveillance to mitigate risks.

Adapting Syndromic Surveillance Baselines After Public Health Interventions

BACKGROUND

Public health surveillance requires historical baselines to identify unusual activity. However, these baselines require adjustment after public health interventions. We describe an example of such an adjustment after the introduction of rotavirus vaccine in England in July 2013.

METHODS

We retrospectively measured the magnitude of differences between baselines and observed counts (residuals) before and after the introduction of a public health intervention, the introduction of a rotavirus vaccine in July 2013. We considered gastroenteritis, diarrhea, and vomiting to be indicators for national syndromic surveillance, including telephone calls to a telehealth system, emergency department visits, and unscheduled consultations with general practitioners. The start of the preintervention period varied depending on the availability of surveillance data: June 2005 for telehealth, November 2009 for emergency departments, and July 2010 for general practitioner data. The postintervention period was July 2013 to the second quarter of 2016. We then determined whether baselines incorporating a step-change reduction or a change in seasonality resulted in more accurate models of activity.

RESULTS

Residuals in the unadjusted baseline models increased by 42%-198% from preintervention to postintervention. Increases in residuals for vomiting indicators were 19%-44% higher than for diarrhea. Both step-change and seasonality adjustments improved the surveillance models; we found the greatest reduction in residuals in seasonally adjusted models (4%-75%).

CONCLUSION

Our results demonstrated the importance of adjusting surveillance baselines after public health interventions, particularly accounting for changes in seasonality. Adjusted baselines produced more representative expected values than did unadjusted baselines, resulting in fewer false alarms and a greater likelihood of detecting public health threats.

Investigating novel approaches to tick-borne encephalitis surveillance in Sweden, 2010-2017

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a vaccine-preventable, high-priority disease in Sweden, with increasing incidence. However, surveillance is limited to case reports. We investigated relationships between reported TBE incidence and syndromic surveillance data to determine if these novel data sources could provide earlier indications of disease activity. We retrospectively compared national, weekly (2010-2017) reported TBE incidence to the percentage of TBE-related a) searches on the main Swedish healthcare information website and b) calls to its telehealth service using Spearman's ρ to determine the most strongly correlated lags. We conducted a sub-analysis (2012-2017) of TBE-related Google Trends queries and compared the number of TBE-related media stories to each novel surveillance dataset. Healthcare website searches for "tbe" and "vaccine" combined, "tbe", "tick", and "tick bite" led case data by 12, 8, 7, and 6 weeks, respectively (ρ = 0.87-0.89); telehealth calls led by 4 weeks (ρ = 0.92; all p < 0.001). Correlations and lags for Google Trends and healthcare website searches were fairly similar to each other. In comparison, correlation between the different syndromic surveillance datasets and the number of media stories was lower (ρ = 0.25-0.56). We observed volume discrepancies between TBE incidence and the novel surveillance datasets during some years, particularly for web searches. Syndromic surveillance data were strongly correlated with and preceded case data by 4-12 weeks. Syndromic data may provide advanced awareness and earlier indications of TBE activity, which can improve timing and specificity of public health communications. The use of these data as supplements to notifiable disease data for national planning and preparedness in real-time should be investigated.

Developing influenza and respiratory syncytial virus activity thresholds for syndromic surveillance in England

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are common causes of respiratory tract infections and place a burden on health services each winter. Systems to describe the timing and intensity of such activity will improve the public health response and deployment of interventions to these pressures. Here we develop early warning and activity intensity thresholds for monitoring influenza and RSV using two novel data sources: general practitioner out-of-hours consultations (GP OOH) and telehealth calls (NHS 111). Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) thresholds were developed for winter 2017-2018. The NHS 111 cold/flu threshold was breached several weeks in advance of other systems. The NHS 111 RSV epidemic threshold was breached in week 41, in advance of RSV laboratory reporting. Combining the use of MEM thresholds with daily monitoring of NHS 111 and GP OOH syndromic surveillance systems provides the potential to alert to threshold breaches in real-time. An advantage of using thresholds across different health systems is the ability to capture a range of healthcare-seeking behaviour, which may reflect differences in disease severity. This study also provides a quantifiable measure of seasonal RSV activity, which contributes to our understanding of RSV activity in advance of the potential introduction of new RSV vaccines.

The Application of Internet-Based Sources for Public Health Surveillance (Infoveillance): Systematic Review

Background

Public health surveillance is based on the continuous and systematic collection, analysis, and interpretation of data. This informs the development of early warning systems to monitor epidemics and documents the impact of intervention measures. The introduction of digital data sources, and specifically sources available on the internet, has impacted the field of public health surveillance. New opportunities enabled by the underlying availability and scale of internet-based sources (IBSs) have paved the way for novel approaches for disease surveillance, exploration of health communities, and the study of epidemic dynamics. This field and approach is also known as infodemiology or infoveillance.

Objective

This review aimed to assess research findings regarding the application of IBSs for public health surveillance (infodemiology or infoveillance). To achieve this, we have presented a comprehensive systematic literature review with a focus on these sources and their limitations, the diseases targeted, and commonly applied methods.

Methods

A systematic literature review was conducted targeting publications between 2012 and 2018 that leveraged IBSs for public health surveillance, outbreak forecasting, disease characterization, diagnosis prediction, content analysis, and health-topic identification. The search results were filtered according to previously defined inclusion and exclusion criteria.

Results

Spanning a total of 162 publications, we determined infectious diseases to be the preferred case study (108/162, 66.7%). Of the eight categories of IBSs (search queries, social media, news, discussion forums, websites, web encyclopedia, and online obituaries), search queries and social media were applied in 95.1% (154/162) of the reviewed publications. We also identified limitations in representativeness and biased user age groups, as well as high susceptibility to media events by search queries, social media, and web encyclopedias.

Conclusions

IBSs are a valuable proxy to study illnesses affecting the general population; however, it is important to characterize which diseases are best suited for the available sources; the literature shows that the level of engagement among online platforms can be a potential indicator. There is a necessity to understand the population’s online behavior; in addition, the exploration of health information dissemination and its content is significantly unexplored. With this information, we can understand how the population communicates about illnesses online and, in the process, benefit public health.

Symptom monitoring of childhood illnesses and referrals: A pilot study on the feasibility of a mobile phone-based system as a disease surveillance tool in a rural health district of Ghana

Despite the potential of mobile technology in improving health systems, its use as a surveillance tool is still unclear. This study aimed to examine the feasibility of a mobile phone-based system as a surveillance tool for identifying common symptoms of childhood illnesses. We conducted a community-based cross-sectional study involving caregivers (n = 161) of children under 5 years. The system was designed to assess disease symptoms of the sick children and provide health advice to caregivers regarding what to do with the sick child. The capacity of the system to correctly assess the disease symptoms of sick children, and provide referral was examined using Kappa statistics. Of the 126 calls recorded by the system, 52 (41.3%) were valid with complete data. The level of agreement between the system and clinicians' report with respect to common symptoms of childhood illnesses varied: fever (kappa = 0.70, p < 0.001); vomiting (kappa = 0.46, p < 0.002); diarrhoea (kappa = 0.44, p < 0.007); and cough (kappa = 0.37, p < 0.0129). An acceptable level of symptom reliability was achieved by the system. The results suggest that the system can be used as a first line surveillance tool for identifying potential childhood disease outbreaks based on symptom reports.

Sick leave due to diarrhea caused by contamination of drinking water supply with Cryptosporidium hominis in Sweden: a retrospective study

We investigated sick leave from work, studies, preschool, and kindergarten occurring between 1 November 2010 and 31 January 2011 and associated with a waterborne outbreak of diarrhea caused by Cryptosporidium hominis in late November 2010 in Östersund, Sweden with 45.2% of 60,000 residents being symptomatic. A questionnaire defining acute watery diarrhoea and/or ≥3 diarrhea episodes/day as cryptosporidiosis was sent to 1,508 residents in late January 2011 (response rate 69.2%). Among adults aged 18-60 years, 24.0% took sick leave for a mean of 4.6 (SD ± 4.0) days due to cryptosporidiosis, and an additional 10.6% were absent from work a mean of 4.0 (±2.2) days to care for symptomatic children. Among children (aged ≤17 years), 35.0% stayed home sick from kindergarten/preschool or school/university for a mean of 5.2 (±3.8) days resulting in 5.1 (±4.4) days of absence from work per sick child shared between parents/guardians. The estimated total number of sick leave days was 50,000 for adults and 20,700 for children, with an estimated direct cost of €7 million for employers. The potential impact on society of sick leave caused by waterborne diseases must be considered in decisions regarding the quality of drinking water.

Two outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis associated with cattle spring pasture events

Over a period of less than four weeks, 50 human cases of cryptosporidiosis were reported from a relatively small geographical area in Sweden. All cases were associated with visits to cattle spring pasture events at two farms (referred to as Farm A and B). Epidemiological and microbiological evidence show that contact with calves at the farms was the most likely source of Cryptosporidium infections. Gp60 sequences from human and calf isolates at Farm A were identical to each other, but differed from those at Farm B where, again, human and calf gp60 sequences were identical, proving that the two outbreaks had no common origin. As a direct consequence of these two outbreaks, and guided by knowledge gained from the outbreak investigations, the Swedish Board of Agriculture and all relevant farmer advisory organizations have updated their hygiene instructions for farm visits.

[Patterns of access to information on protection against UV during the Brazilian summer: is there such a thing as the "summer effect"?]

Internet search patterns associated with "windows" of collective interest have been increasingly investigated in the field of public health. This article sets out to identify search patterns relating to the quest for information on skin protection after the perception of excessive exposure to UV radiation - the so-called "summer effect" as it is commonly referred to in Brazil. To calculate the number of hits on the Brazilian National Cancer Institute website - a renowned source of information resources on prevention - log analyzer software was used to measure the volume of hits on specific content pages. The pages on skin protection and self-examination (pages of interest) were monitored over a 48-month period. It was seen that, although the monthly average of hits on pages of interest revealed statistically significant annual growth, the results for the analysis of variance showed no significant differences between the number of hits in the summer compared with other months (p = 0.7491). In short, the perception of intense exposure to the summer sun did not encourage further interest to search for information on prevention.

Waterborne disease outbreak detection: an integrated approach using health administrative databases

Hundreds of waterborne disease outbreaks (WBDO) of acute gastroenteritis (AGI) due to contaminated tap water are reported in developed countries each year. Such outbreaks are probably under-detected. The aim of our study was to develop an integrated approach to detect and study clusters of AGI in geographical areas with homogeneous exposure to drinking water. Data for the number of AGI cases are available at the municipality level while exposure to tap water depends on drinking water networks (DWN). These two geographical units do not systematically overlap. This study proposed to develop an algorithm which would match the most relevant grouping of municipalities with a specific DWN, in order that tap water exposure can be taken into account when investigating future disease outbreaks. A space-time detection method was applied to the grouping of municipalities. Seven hundred and fourteen new geographical areas (groupings of municipalities) were obtained compared with the 1,310 municipalities and the 1,706 DWN. Eleven potential WBDO were identified in these groupings of municipalities. For ten of them, additional environmental investigations identified at least one event that could have caused microbiological contamination of DWN in the days previous to the occurrence of a reported WBDO.

Utility and potential of rapid epidemic intelligence from internet-based sources

OBJECTIVES

Rapid epidemic detection is an important objective of surveillance to enable timely intervention, but traditional validated surveillance data may not be available in the required timeframe for acute epidemic control. Increasing volumes of data on the Internet have prompted interest in methods that could use unstructured sources to enhance traditional disease surveillance and gain rapid epidemic intelligence. We aimed to summarise Internet-based methods that use freely-accessible, unstructured data for epidemic surveillance and explore their timeliness and accuracy outcomes.

METHODS

Steps outlined in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist were used to guide a systematic review of research related to the use of informal or unstructured data by Internet-based intelligence methods for surveillance.

RESULTS

We identified 84 articles published between 2006-2016 relating to Internet-based public health surveillance methods. Studies used search queries, social media posts and approaches derived from existing Internet-based systems for early epidemic alerts and real-time monitoring. Most studies noted improved timeliness compared to official reporting, such as in the 2014 Ebola epidemic where epidemic alerts were generated first from ProMED-mail. Internet-based methods showed variable correlation strength with official datasets, with some methods showing reasonable accuracy.

CONCLUSION

The proliferation of publicly available information on the Internet provided a new avenue for epidemic intelligence. Methodologies have been developed to collect Internet data and some systems are already used to enhance the timeliness of traditional surveillance systems. To improve the utility of Internet-based systems, the key attributes of timeliness and data accuracy should be included in future evaluations of surveillance systems.

Enhanced Influenza Surveillance Using Telephone Triage and Electronic Syndromic Surveillance in the Department of Veterans Affairs, 2011-2015

Telephone triage (TT) is a method whereby medical professionals speak by telephone to patients to assess their symptoms or health concerns and offer advice. These services are often administered through an electronic TT system, which guides TT professionals during the encounter through the use of structured protocols and algorithms to help determine the severity of the patients' health issue and refer them to appropriate care. TT is also an emerging data source for public health surveillance of infectious and noninfectious diseases, including influenza. We calculated Spearman correlation coefficients to compare the weekly number of US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) TT calls with other conventional influenza measures for the 2011-2012 through 2014-2015 influenza seasons, for which there were a total of 35 666 influenza-coded TT encounters. Influenza-coded calls were strongly correlated with weekly VA influenza-coded hospitalizations (0.85), emergency department visits (0.90), influenza-like illness outpatient visits (0.92), influenza tests performed (0.86), positive influenza tests (0.82), and influenza antiviral prescriptions (0.89). The correlation between VA-TT and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) national data for weekly influenza hospitalizations, influenza tests performed, and positive influenza tests was also strong. TT correlates well with VA health care use and CDC data and is a timely data source for monitoring influenza activity.

A Conceptual Architecture for National Biosurveillance: Moving Beyond Situational Awareness to Enable Digital Detection of Emerging Threats

Despite numerous calls for improvement, the US biosurveillance enterprise remains a patchwork of uncoordinated systems that fail to take advantage of the rapid progress in information processing, communication, and analytics made in the past decade. By synthesizing components from the extensive biosurveillance literature, we propose a conceptual framework for a national biosurveillance architecture and provide suggestions for implementation. The framework differs from the current federal biosurveillance development pathway in that it is not focused on systems useful for "situational awareness" but is instead focused on the long-term goal of having true warning capabilities. Therefore, a guiding design objective is the ability to digitally detect emerging threats that span jurisdictional boundaries, because attempting to solve the most challenging biosurveillance problem first provides the strongest foundation to meet simpler surveillance objectives. Core components of the vision are: (1) a whole-of-government approach to support currently disparate federal surveillance efforts that have a common data need, including those for food safety, vaccine and medical product safety, and infectious disease surveillance; (2) an information architecture that enables secure national access to electronic health records, yet does not require that data be sent to a centralized location for surveillance analysis; (3) an inference architecture that leverages advances in "big data" analytics and learning inference engines-a significant departure from the statistical process control paradigm that underpins nearly all current syndromic surveillance systems; and (4) an organizational architecture with a governance model aimed at establishing national biosurveillance as a critical part of the US national infrastructure. Although it will take many years to implement, and a national campaign of education and debate to acquire public buy-in for such a comprehensive system, the potential benefits warrant increased consideration by the US government.

Early outbreak detection by linking health advice line calls to water distribution areas retrospectively demonstrated in a large waterborne outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Sweden

Background

In the winter and spring of 2011 a large outbreak of cryptosporidiosis occurred in Skellefteå municipality, Sweden. This study summarizes the outbreak investigation in terms of outbreak size, duration, clinical characteristics, possible source(s) and the potential for earlier detection using calls to a health advice line.

Methods

The investigation included two epidemiological questionnaires and microbial analysis of samples from patients, water and other environmental sources. In addition, a retrospective study based on phone calls to a health advice line was performed by comparing patterns of phone calls between different water distribution areas.

Results

Our analyses showed that approximately 18,500 individuals were affected by a waterborne outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Skellefteå in 2011. This makes it the second largest outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Europe to date. Cryptosporidium hominis oocysts of subtype IbA10G2 were found in patient and sewage samples, but not in raw water or in drinking water, and the initial contamination source could not be determined. The outbreak went unnoticed to authorities for several months. The analysis of the calls to the health advice line provides strong indications early in the outbreak that it was linked to a particular water treatment plant.

Conclusions

We conclude that an earlier detection of the outbreak by linking calls to a health advice line to water distribution areas could have limited the outbreak substantially.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-017-4233-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The burden of seasonal respiratory infections on a national telehealth service in England

Seasonal respiratory illnesses present a major burden on primary care services. We assessed the burden of respiratory illness on a national telehealth system in England and investigated the potential for providing early warning of respiratory infection. We compared weekly laboratory reports for respiratory pathogens with telehealth calls (NHS 111) between week 40 in 2013 and week 29 in 2015. Multiple linear regression was used to identify which pathogens had a significant association with respiratory calls. Children aged <5 and 5-14 years, and adults over 65 years were modelled separately as were time lags of up to 4 weeks between calls and laboratory specimen dates. Associations with respiratory pathogens explained over 83% of the variation in cold/flu, cough and difficulty breathing calls. Based on the first two seasons available, the greatest burden was associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza, with associations found in all age bands. The most sensitive signal for influenza was calls for 'cold/flu', whilst for RSV it was calls for cough. The best-fitting models showed calls increasing a week before laboratory specimen dates. Daily surveillance of these calls can provide early warning of seasonal rises in influenza and RSV, contributing to the national respiratory surveillance programme.

Developing and validating a new national remote health advice syndromic surveillance system in England

Background

Public Health England (PHE) coordinates a suite of real-time national syndromic surveillance systems monitoring general practice, emergency department and remote health advice data. We describe the development and informal evaluation of a new syndromic surveillance system using NHS 111 remote health advice data.

Methods

NHS 111 syndromic indicators were monitored daily at national and local level. Statistical models were applied to daily data to identify significant exceedances; statistical baselines were developed for each syndrome and area using a multi-level hierarchical mixed effects model.

Results

Between November 2013 and October 2014, there were on average 19 095 NHS 111 calls each weekday and 43 084 each weekend day in the PHE dataset. There was a predominance of females using the service (57%); highest percentage of calls received was in the age group 1-4 years (14%). This system was used to monitor respiratory and gastrointestinal infections over the winter of 2013-14, the potential public health impact of severe flooding across parts of southern England and poor air quality episodes across England in April 2014.

Conclusions

This new system complements and supplements the existing PHE syndromic surveillance systems and is now integrated into the routine daily processes that form this national syndromic surveillance service.

Safe drinking water and waterborne outbreaks

The present work compiles a review on drinking waterborne outbreaks, with the perspective of production and distribution of microbiologically safe water, during 2000-2014. The outbreaks are categorised in raw water contamination, treatment deficiencies and distribution network failure. The main causes for contamination were: for groundwater, intrusion of animal faeces or wastewater due to heavy rain; in surface water, discharge of wastewater into the water source and increased turbidity and colour; at treatment plants, malfunctioning of the disinfection equipment; and for distribution systems, cross-connections, pipe breaks and wastewater intrusion into the network. Pathogens causing the largest number of affected consumers were Cryptosporidium, norovirus, Giardia, Campylobacter, and rotavirus. The largest number of different pathogens was found for the treatment works and the distribution network. The largest number of affected consumers with gastrointestinal illness was for contamination events from a surface water source, while the largest number of individual events occurred for the distribution network.

Waterborne Diseases and Climate Change: Impact and Implications

Waterborne diseases are caused by a multitude of pathogens and associated with a significant burden in both developed and developing countries. While the assessment of the adverse impacts of climate change on human heath from infectious diseases has mainly focused on vector-borne diseases, waterborne diseases prevalence and transmission patterns are also likely to be impacted by environmental change. This chapter will outline relevant waterborne pathogens, summarise the impact of climate change on disease transmission and explore climate change adaptation options in order to reduce the increased burden of waterborne diseases.

Evaluating Hospital-Based Surveillance for Outbreak Detection in Bangladesh: Analysis of Healthcare Utilization Data

BACKGROUND

The International Health Regulations outline core requirements to ensure the detection of public health threats of international concern. Assessing the capacity of surveillance systems to detect these threats is crucial for evaluating a country's ability to meet these requirements.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We propose a framework to evaluate the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance and apply it to severe neurological infectious diseases and fatal respiratory infectious diseases in Bangladesh. We identified cases in selected communities within surveillance hospital catchment areas using key informant and house-to-house surveys and ascertained where cases had sought care. We estimated the probability of surveillance detecting different sized outbreaks by distance from the surveillance hospital and compared characteristics of cases identified in the community and cases attending surveillance hospitals. We estimated that surveillance detected 26% (95% CI 18%-33%) of severe neurological disease cases and 18% (95% CI 16%-21%) of fatal respiratory disease cases residing at 10 km distance from a surveillance hospital. Detection probabilities decreased markedly with distance. The probability of detecting small outbreaks (three cases) dropped below 50% at distances greater than 26 km for severe neurological disease and at distances greater than 7 km for fatal respiratory disease. Characteristics of cases attending surveillance hospitals were largely representative of all cases; however, neurological disease cases aged <5 y or from the lowest socioeconomic group and fatal respiratory disease cases aged ≥60 y were underrepresented. Our estimates of outbreak detection rely on suspected cases that attend a surveillance hospital receiving laboratory confirmation of disease and being reported to the surveillance system. The extent to which this occurs will depend on disease characteristics (e.g., severity and symptom specificity) and surveillance resources.

CONCLUSION

We present a new approach to evaluating the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance, making it possible to predict its ability to detect emerging threats.

Disease surveillance based on Internet-based linear models: an Australian case study of previously unmodeled infection diseases

Effective disease surveillance is critical to the functioning of health systems. Traditional approaches are, however, limited in their ability to deliver timely information. Internet-based surveillance systems are a promising approach that may circumvent many of the limitations of traditional health surveillance systems and provide more intelligence on cases of infection, including cases from those that do not use the healthcare system. Infectious disease surveillance systems built on Internet search metrics have been shown to produce accurate estimates of disease weeks before traditional systems and are an economically attractive approach to surveillance; they are, however, also prone to error under certain circumstances. This study sought to explore previously unmodeled diseases by investigating the link between Google Trends search metrics and Australian weekly notification data. We propose using four alternative disease modelling strategies based on linear models that studied the length of the training period used for model construction, determined the most appropriate lag for search metrics, used wavelet transformation for denoising data and enabled the identification of key search queries for each disease. Out of the twenty-four diseases assessed with Australian data, our nowcasting results highlighted promise for two diseases of international concern, Ross River virus and pneumococcal disease.

Efficacy of water treatment processes and endemic gastrointestinal illness - A multi-city study in Sweden

Outbreaks of acute gastrointestinal illnesses (AGI) have been linked to insufficient drinking water treatment on numerous occasions in the industrialized world, but it is largely unknown to what extent public drinking water influences the endemic level of AGI. This paper aimed to examine endemic AGI and the relationship with pathogen elimination efficacy in public drinking water treatment processes. For this reason, time series data of all telephone calls to the Swedish National Healthcare Guide between November 2007 and February 2014 from twenty Swedish cities were obtained. Calls concerning vomiting, diarrhea or abdominal pain (AGI calls) were separated from other concerns (non-AGI calls). Information on which type of microbial barriers each drinking water treatment plant in these cities have been used were obtained, together with the barriers' theoretical pathogen log reduction efficacy. The total log reduction in the drinking water plants varied between 0.0 and 6.1 units for viruses, 0.0-14.6 units for bacteria and 0.0-7.3 units regarding protozoans. To achieve one general efficacy parameter for each plant, a weighted mean value of the log reductions (WLR) was calculated, with the weights based on how commonly these pathogen groups cause AGI. The WLR in the plants varied between 0.0 and 6.4 units. The effect of different pathogen elimination efficacy on levels of AGI calls relative non-AGI calls was evaluated in regression models, controlling for long term trends, population size, age distribution, and climatological area. Populations receiving drinking water produced with higher total log reduction was associated with a lower relative number of AGI calls. In overall, AGI calls decreased by 4% (OR = 0.96, CI: 0.96-0.97) for each unit increase in the WLR. The findings apply to both groundwater and surface water study sites, but are particularly evident among surface water sites during seasons when viruses are the main cause of AGI. This study proposes that the endemic level of gastroenteritis can indeed be reduced with more advanced treatment processes at many municipal drinking water treatment plants.

What is the utility of using syndromic surveillance systems during large subnational infectious gastrointestinal disease outbreaks? An observational study using case studies from the past 5 years in England

Syndromic surveillance systems in England have demonstrated utility in the early identification of seasonal gastrointestinal illness (GI) tracking its spatio-temporal distribution and enabling early public health action. There would be additional public health utility if syndromic surveillance systems could detect or track subnational infectious disease outbreaks. To investigate using syndromic surveillance for this purpose we retrospectively identified eight large GI outbreaks between 2009 and 2014 (four randomly and four purposively sampled). We then examined syndromic surveillance information prospectively collected by the Real-time Syndromic Surveillance team within Public Health England for evidence of possible outbreak-related changes. None of the outbreaks were identified contemporaneously and no alerts were made to relevant public health teams. Retrospectively, two of the outbreaks - which happened at similar times and in proximal geographical locations - demonstrated changes in the local trends of relevant syndromic indicators and exhibited a clustering of statistical alarms, but did not warrant alerting local health protection teams. Our suite of syndromic surveillance systems may be more suited to their original purposes than as means of detecting or monitoring localized, subnational GI outbreaks. This should, however, be considered in the context of this study's limitations; further prospective work is needed to fully explore the use of syndromic surveillance for this purpose. Provided geographical coverage is sufficient, syndromic surveillance systems could be able to provide reassurance of no or minor excess healthcare systems usage during localized GI incidents.

The usefulness of school-based syndromic surveillance for detecting malaria epidemics: experiences from a pilot project in Ethiopia

Background

Syndromic surveillance is a supplementary approach to routine surveillance, using pre-diagnostic and non-clinical surrogate data to identify possible infectious disease outbreaks. To date, syndromic surveillance has primarily been used in high-income countries for diseases such as influenza -- however, the approach may also be relevant to resource-poor settings. This study investigated the potential for monitoring school absenteeism and febrile illness, as part of a school-based surveillance system to identify localised malaria epidemics in Ethiopia.

Methods

Repeated cross-sectional school- and community-based surveys were conducted in six epidemic-prone districts in southern Ethiopia during the 2012 minor malaria transmission season to characterise prospective surrogate and syndromic indicators of malaria burden. Changes in these indicators over the transmission season were compared to standard indicators of malaria (clinical and confirmed cases) at proximal health facilities. Subsequently, two pilot surveillance systems were implemented, each at ten sites throughout the peak transmission season. Indicators piloted were school attendance recorded by teachers, or child-reported recent absenteeism from school and reported febrile illness.

Results

Lack of seasonal increase in malaria burden limited the ability to evaluate sensitivity of the piloted syndromic surveillance systems compared to existing surveillance at health facilities. Weekly absenteeism was easily calculated by school staff using existing attendance registers, while syndromic indicators were more challenging to collect weekly from schoolchildren. In this setting, enrolment of school-aged children was found to be low, at 54 %. Non-enrolment was associated with low household wealth, lack of parental education, household size, and distance from school.

Conclusions

School absenteeism is a plausible simple indicator of unusual health events within a community, such as malaria epidemics, but the sensitivity of an absenteeism-based surveillance system to detect epidemics could not be rigorously evaluated in this study. Further piloting during a demonstrated increase in malaria transmission within a community is recommended.

Tracking Cholera through Surveillance of Oral Rehydration Solution Sales at Pharmacies: Insights from Urban Bangladesh

Background

In Bangladesh, pharmacy-purchased oral rehydration solution (ORS) is often used to treat diarrhea, including cholera. Over-the-counter sales have been used for epidemiologic surveillance in the past, but rarely, if ever, in low-income countries. With few early indicators for cholera outbreaks in endemic areas, diarrhea-related product sales may serve as a useful surveillance tool.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We tracked daily ORS sales at 50 pharmacies and drug-sellers in an urban Bangladesh community of 129,000 for 6-months while simultaneously conducting surveillance for diarrhea hospitalizations among residents. We developed a mobile phone based system to track the sales of ORS and deployed it in parallel with a paper-based system. Our objectives were to determine if the mobile phone system was practical and acceptable to pharmacists and drug sellers, whether data were reported accurately compared to a paper-based system, and whether ORS sales were associated with future incidence of cholera hospitalizations within the community. We recorded 47,215 customers purchasing ORS, and 315 hospitalized diarrhea cases, 22% of which had culture-confirmed cholera. ORS sales and diarrhea incidence were independently associated with the mean daily temperature; therefore both unadjusted and adjusted models were explored. Through unadjusted cross-correlation statistics and generalized linear models, we found increases in ORS sales were significantly associated with increases in hospitalized diarrhea cases up to 9-days later and hospitalized cholera cases up to one day later. After adjusting for mean daily temperature, ORS was significantly associated with hospitalized diarrhea two days later and hospitalized cholera one day later.

Conclusions/Significance

Pharmacy sales data may serve as a feasible and useful surveillance tool. Given the relatively short lagged correlation between ORS sales and diarrhea, rapid and accurate sales data are key. More work is needed in creating actionable algorithms that make use of this data and in understanding the generalizability of our findings to other settings.

In Bangladesh, people often purchase oral rehydration solution (ORS) at their neighborhood pharmacy to treat diarrhea, including cholera. Over-the-counter sales have been used for epidemiologic surveillance, but rarely in low-income countries. With few early indicators for cholera outbreaks in endemic areas, diarrhea-related product sales may be a useful surveillance tool. We tracked daily ORS sales at pharmacies and drug-sellers in an urban Bangladesh community with both a mobile phone and paper-based system while conducting surveillance for diarrhea hospitalizations among residents. We found that increases in ORS sales were significantly associated increases in hospitalized diarrhea cases up to two days later and hospitalized cholera cases up to one day later. Our findings suggest that surveillance systems based on over-the-counter product sales may be a feasible and useful way to detect outbreaks in low-income settings and that mobile technology may make it even easier to collect implement.

Description of two waterborne disease outbreaks in France: a comparative study with data from cohort studies and from health administrative databases

Waterborne disease outbreaks (WBDO) of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) are a public health concern in France. Their occurrence is probably underestimated due to the lack of a specific surveillance system. The French health insurance database provides an interesting opportunity to improve the detection of these events. A specific algorithm to identify AGI cases from drug payment reimbursement data in the health insurance database has been previously developed. The purpose of our comparative study was to retrospectively assess the ability of the health insurance data to describe WBDO. Data from the health insurance database was compared with the data from cohort studies conducted in two WBDO in 2010 and 2012. The temporal distribution of cases, the day of the peak and the duration of the epidemic, as measured using the health insurance data, were similar to the data from one of the two cohort studies. However, health insurance data accounted for 54 cases compared to the estimated 252 cases accounted for in the cohort study. The accuracy of using health insurance data to describe WBDO depends on the medical consultation rate in the impacted population. As this is never the case, data analysis underestimates the total number of AGI cases. However this data source can be considered for the development of a detection system of a WBDO in France, given its ability to describe an epidemic signal.

Google unveils a glimpse of allergic rhinitis in the real world

Google Trends (GT) is a Web-based surveillance tool used to explore the searching trends of specific queries on Google. Recent studies have suggested the utility of GT in predicting outbreaks of influenza and other diseases. However, this utility has not been thoroughly evaluated for allergic diseases. Therefore, we investigated the utility of GT for predicting the epidemiology of allergic rhinitis. In the USA, GT for allergic rhinitis showed repetitive seasonality that peaked in late April and early May and then rapidly decreased, and a second small peak occurred in September. These trends are highly correlated with the searching trends for other queries such as 'pollen count', antihistamines such as loratadine and cetirizine (all r > 0.88 and all P < 0.001), and even the total pollen count collected from 21 pollen counters across the USA (r = 0.928, P < 0.001). Google Trends for allergic rhinitis was similar to the monthly changes in rhinitis symptoms according to the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III, sales for Claritin(®) and all over-the-counter antihistamines, and the number of monthly page views of 'claritin.com'. In conclusion, GT closely reflects the real-world epidemiology of allergic rhinitis in the USA and could potentially be used as a monitoring tool for allergic rhinitis.

Using internet search queries for infectious disease surveillance: screening diseases for suitability

BACKGROUND

Internet-based surveillance systems provide a novel approach to monitoring infectious diseases. Surveillance systems built on internet data are economically, logistically and epidemiologically appealing and have shown significant promise. The potential for these systems has increased with increased internet availability and shifts in health-related information seeking behaviour. This approach to monitoring infectious diseases has, however, only been applied to single or small groups of select diseases. This study aims to systematically investigate the potential for developing surveillance and early warning systems using internet search data, for a wide range of infectious diseases.

METHODS

Official notifications for 64 infectious diseases in Australia were downloaded and correlated with frequencies for 164 internet search terms for the period 2009-13 using Spearman's rank correlations. Time series cross correlations were performed to assess the potential for search terms to be used in construction of early warning systems.

RESULTS

Notifications for 17 infectious diseases (26.6%) were found to be significantly correlated with a selected search term. The use of internet metrics as a means of surveillance has not previously been described for 12 (70.6%) of these diseases. The majority of diseases identified were vaccine-preventable, vector-borne or sexually transmissible; cross correlations, however, indicated that vector-borne and vaccine preventable diseases are best suited for development of early warning systems.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study suggest that internet-based surveillance systems have broader applicability to monitoring infectious diseases than has previously been recognised. Furthermore, internet-based surveillance systems have a potential role in forecasting emerging infectious disease events, especially for vaccine-preventable and vector-borne diseases.

Large outbreak of Cryptosporidium hominis infection transmitted through the public water supply, Sweden

In November 2010, ≈27,000 (≈45%) inhabitants of Östersund, Sweden, were affected by a waterborne outbreak of cryptosporidiosis. The outbreak was characterized by a rapid onset and high attack rate, especially among young and middle-aged persons. Young age, number of infected family members, amount of water consumed daily, and gluten intolerance were identified as risk factors for acquiring cryptosporidiosis. Also, chronic intestinal disease and young age were significantly associated with prolonged diarrhea. Identification of Cryptosporidium hominis subtype IbA10G2 in human and environmental samples and consistently low numbers of oocysts in drinking water confirmed insufficient reduction of parasites by the municipal water treatment plant. The current outbreak shows that use of inadequate microbial barriers at water treatment plants can have serious consequences for public health. This risk can be minimized by optimizing control of raw water quality and employing multiple barriers that remove or inactivate all groups of pathogens.

Syndromic surveillance of influenza activity in Sweden: an evaluation of three tools

An evaluation was conducted to determine which syndromic surveillance tools complement traditional surveillance by serving as earlier indicators of influenza activity in Sweden. Web queries, medical hotline statistics, and school absenteeism data were evaluated against two traditional surveillance tools. Cross-correlation calculations utilized aggregated weekly data for all-age, nationwide activity for four influenza seasons, from 2009/2010 to 2012/2013. The surveillance tool indicative of earlier influenza activity, by way of statistical and visual evidence, was identified. The web query algorithm and medical hotline statistics performed equally well as each other and to the traditional surveillance tools. School absenteeism data were not reliable resources for influenza surveillance. Overall, the syndromic surveillance tools did not perform with enough consistency in season lead nor in earlier timing of the peak week to be considered as early indicators. They do, however, capture incident cases before they have formally entered the primary healthcare system.

A call for urgent monitoring of food and water security based on relevant indicators for the Arctic

This perspective paper argues for an urgent need to monitor a set of 12 concrete, measurable indicators of food and water security in the Arctic over time. Such a quantitative indicator approach may be viewed as representing a reductionist rather than a holistic perspective, but is nevertheless necessary for actually knowing what reality aspects to monitor in order to accurately understand, quantify, and be able to project critical changes to food and water security of both indigenous and non-indigenous people in the Arctic. More relevant indicators may be developed in the future, taking us further toward reconciliation between reductionist and holistic approaches to change assessment and understanding. However, the potential of such further development to improved holistic change assessment is not an argument not to urgently start to monitor and quantify the changes in food and water security indicators that are immediately available and adequate for the Arctic context.