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Jin S, Wang W, Ostic D, Zhang C, Lu N, Wang D, Ni W. Air quality and health benefits of increasing carbon mitigation tech-innovation in China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:6786-6804. [PMID: 36006537 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-22602-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2021] [Accepted: 08/15/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Most studies on the short-term local benefits of carbon mitigation technologies on air quality improvement and health focus on specific technologies such as biofuels or carbon sequestration technologies, while ignoring the overall role of the growing scale of low-carbon technologies. Based on STIRPAT model and EKC hypothesis, this paper takes 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2016 as research samples. We builded the panel double fixed effect model to empirical analysis of climate change on carbon mitigation tech-innovation suppressing the influence of haze pollution, on this basis, the mediating effect model was used to explore the mediation function of industrial structure and energy structure. Meanwhile, we drawed on the existing studies on air quality and health benefits, and quantify the co-benefits of carbon mitigation tech-innovation on health through the equivalent substitution formula. It shows that a 1% increase in the number of low-carbon patent applications can reduce haze pollution by 0.066%. According to this estimate, to 2029, China's carbon mitigation tech-innovation could reduce PM2.5 concentration to 15 μg/m3 preventing 5.597 million premature deaths. Moreover, carbon mitigation tech-innovation can also indirectly inhibit haze pollution by triggering more systematic economic structure changes such as energy and industrial structure. Additionally, we found that the role of gray tech-innovation (GT) related to improving the efficiency of fossil energy is stronger than that of clean technology (CT) related to the use of renewable energy. This suggests that for a large economy such as China, where coal is still the dominant source of energy consumption, the short-term local benefits of improving air quality and health through the use of gray tech-innovation to improve energy and industrial structure are still important to balance the cost of carbon mitigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shunlin Jin
- School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, China
| | - Weidong Wang
- School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, China.
| | - Dragana Ostic
- School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, China
| | - Caijing Zhang
- College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
| | - Na Lu
- School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, China
| | - Dong Wang
- School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, China
| | - Wenli Ni
- School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, China
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Wang S, Fisher EB, Feng L, Zhong X, Ellis JH, Hobbs BF. Linking energy sector and air quality models through downscaling: Long-run siting of electricity generators to account for spatial variability and technological innovation. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 772:145504. [PMID: 33581514 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145504] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2020] [Revised: 01/22/2021] [Accepted: 01/25/2021] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Modeling the air pollution implications of long-term energy transitions requires a downscaling process as an intermediate step between national-scale energy models and fine-scaled air quality models. Traditional "Grow-in-Place" (GIP) downscaling methods assume that future patterns of generator siting and emissions will be similar to those in the past. However, rapid technological change and shifting policy might yield very different future spatial patterns of power emissions. Here, we propose a "Site-and-Grow" (SAG) downscaling framework to couple the Electricity Market Module (EMM) of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) with the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate future changes in emissions from power sector. The SAG framework consists of two steps. First, we downscale regional energy information to subregions using a modified generation expansion model under the assumption that economic fundamentals drive decisions at that scale. Second, we use GIS-based screening to locate potential sites for new power plants, and specify the final county-level placement using a multicriteria value function, assuming that land use and environmental constraints are most influential. The method is implemented in one EMM region (Carolinas and Virginia) as a case study. We compare spatial and temporal variability of downscaled emissions using both GIP and SAG methods, as well as emissions differences among four NEMS scenarios (base case, high natural gas consumption, high penetration of electric vehicles, and marine vessel electrification in ports). The results indicate that coal power plant emissions such as SO2 and NOx continue to dominate emissions from all other traditional power plants even in 2040, which suggests that emission changes will mainly be determined by where old coal plants are retired. An ANOVA (analysis of variance) comparison of four energy scenarios with two downscaling methods shows that the choice of downscaling method can contribute as much to emissions patterns as much as the choice of scenario.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shen Wang
- Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Whiting School of Engineering, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
| | - Emily B Fisher
- Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Whiting School of Engineering, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Leyang Feng
- Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Whiting School of Engineering, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Xinrui Zhong
- Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Whiting School of Engineering, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - J Hugh Ellis
- Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Whiting School of Engineering, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Benjamin F Hobbs
- Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Whiting School of Engineering, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
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Gallagher CL, Holloway T. Integrating Air Quality and Public Health Benefits in U.S. Decarbonization Strategies. Front Public Health 2020; 8:563358. [PMID: 33330312 PMCID: PMC7717953 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.563358] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2020] [Accepted: 08/12/2020] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Research on air quality and human health “co-benefits” from climate mitigation strategies represents a growing area of policy-relevant scholarship. Compared to other aspects of climate and energy policy evaluation, however, there are still relatively few of these co-benefits analyses. This sparsity reflects a historical disconnect between research quantifying energy and climate, and research dealing with air quality and health. The air quality co-benefits of climate, clean energy, and transportation electrification policies are typically assessed with models spanning social, physical, chemical, and biological systems. This review article summarizes studies to date and presents methods used for these interdisciplinary analyses. Studies in the peer-reviewed literature (n = 26) have evaluated carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards, energy efficiency, renewable energy deployment, and clean transportation. A number of major findings have emerged from these studies: [1] decarbonization strategies can reduce air pollution disproportionally on the most polluted days; [2] renewable energy deployment and climate policies offer the highest health and economic benefits in regions with greater reliance on coal generation; [3] monetized air quality health co-benefits can offset costs of climate policy implementation; [4] monetized co-benefits typically exceed the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of renewable energies; [5] Electric vehicle (EV) adoption generally improves air quality on peak pollution days, but can result in ozone dis-benefits in urban centers due to the titration of ozone with nitrogen oxides. Drawing from these published studies, we review the state of knowledge on climate co-benefits to air quality and health, identifying opportunities for policy action and further research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ciaran L Gallagher
- Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States
| | - Tracey Holloway
- Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States.,Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States
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Ou Y, Shi W, Smith SJ, Ledna CM, West JJ, Nolte CG, Loughlin DH. Estimating environmental co-benefits of U.S. low-carbon pathways using an integrated assessment model with state-level resolution. APPLIED ENERGY 2018; 216:482-493. [PMID: 29713111 PMCID: PMC5920560 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.02.122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
There are many technological pathways that can lead to reduced carbon dioxide emissions. However, these pathways can have substantially different impacts on other environmental endpoints, such as air quality and energy-related water demand. This study uses an integrated assessment model with state-level resolution of the energy system to compare environmental impacts of alternative low-carbon pathways for the United States. One set of pathways emphasizes nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage, while another set emphasizes renewable energy, including wind, solar, geothermal power, and bioenergy. These are compared with pathways in which all technologies are available. Air pollutant emissions, mortality costs attributable to particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm in diameter, and energy-related water demands are evaluated for 50% and 80% carbon dioxide reduction targets in 2050. The renewable low-carbon pathways require less water withdrawal and consumption than the nuclear and carbon capture pathways. However, the renewable low-carbon pathways modeled in this study produce higher particulate matter-related mortality costs due to greater use of biomass in residential heating. Environmental co-benefits differ among states because of factors such as existing technology stock, resource availability, and environmental and energy policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yang Ou
- Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States
| | - Wenjing Shi
- Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States
| | - Steven J. Smith
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States
| | - Catherine M. Ledna
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States
| | - J. Jason West
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States
| | - Christopher G. Nolte
- Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States
| | - Daniel H. Loughlin
- Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States
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Guo Y, Zeng Z, Tian J, Xu F, Chen L, Zhou A. Uncovering the strategies of green development in a Chinese province driven by reallocating the emission caps of multiple pollutants among industries. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2017; 607-608:1487-1496. [PMID: 28787800 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.234] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2017] [Revised: 06/26/2017] [Accepted: 06/26/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
This study aims to address the question of reallocating emissions caps on CO2 and four common pollutants (COD, NH3-N, SO2, and NOx) among all the industries to facilitate regional green development. We developed a model by considering emissions caps, economic growth, inter-sector linkage, and the smoothness of industrial structure change comprehensively. The model is applied to the Zhejiang Province, a typical Chinese coastal area that has high level of industrialization but severe environmental issues. By integrating multi-criteria decision analysis, input-output table, and scenario analysis, the model uncovers key sectors with relatively high sensitivity to the reallocation of emission caps, and reasonable solutions for emission caps reallocation among all industries are proposed. The results also indicate the spillover of pollutant emissions will be a crucial issue for some industries. The uncertainty in the model is quantified using a Monte Carlo simulation and the results indicate that industrial re-structuring, economic targets, and emission intensity were the most decisive factors to fulfill the emission caps control in the Zhejiang Province. The sensitivity analysis results implied that the key sectors which need to be significantly adjusted on emissions quotas remain the same in most cases. Finally, the policy implications of the study are explored.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yang Guo
- School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Zizhang Zeng
- School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Jinping Tian
- School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
| | - Feng Xu
- School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, #15 Beisanhuan East Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Lujun Chen
- School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Science and Technology, Department of Environment, Yangtze Delta Region Institute of Tsinghua University, Zhejiang, Jiaxing 314006, China
| | - Anguo Zhou
- Academy of Environmental Research and Design of Zhejiang Province, #111 Tianmushan Road, Hangzhou City 310000, China
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Zhang Y, Smith SJ, Bowden JH, Adelman Z, West JJ. Co-benefits of global, domestic, and sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality and human health in 2050. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS : ERL [WEB SITE] 2017; 12:114033. [PMID: 33204303 PMCID: PMC7668559 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8f76] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can bring ancillary benefits of improved air quality and reduced premature mortality, in addition to slowing climate change. Here we study the co-benefits of global and domestic GHG mitigation on US air quality and human health in 2050 at fine resolution using dynamical downscaling of meteorology and air quality from global simulations to the continental US, and quantify for the first time the co-benefits from foreign GHG mitigation. Relative to the reference scenario from which RCP4.5 was created, global GHG reductions in RCP4.5 avoid 16000 PM2.5-related all-cause deaths yr-1 (90% confidence interval, 11700-20300), and 8000 (3600-12400) O3-related respiratory deaths yr-1 in the US in 2050. Foreign GHG mitigation avoids 15% and 62% of PM2.5- and O3-related total avoided deaths, highlighting the importance of foreign mitigation for US health. GHG mitigation in the US residential sector brings the largest co-benefits for PM2.5-related deaths (21% of total domestic co-benefits), and industry for O3 (17%). Monetized benefits for avoided deaths from ozone and PM2.5 are $137 ($87-187) per ton CO2 at high valuation and $45 ($29-62) at low valuation, of which 31% are from foreign GHG reductions. These benefits likely exceed the marginal cost of GHG reductions in 2050. The US gains significantly greater air quality and health co-benefits when its GHG emission reductions are concurrent with reductions in other nations. Similarly, previous studies estimating co-benefits locally or regionally may greatly underestimate the full co-benefits of coordinated global actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuqiang Zhang
- Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
- Now at Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA
| | - Steven J. Smith
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
| | - Jared H. Bowden
- Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Zachariah Adelman
- Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
- Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - J. Jason West
- Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
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7
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Dodder RS, Barnwell JT, Yelverton WH. Scenarios for Low Carbon and Low Water Electric Power Plant Operations: Implications for Upstream Water Use. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2016; 50:11460-11470. [PMID: 27709910 PMCID: PMC7364179 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b03048] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Electric sector water use, in particular for thermoelectric operations, is a critical component of the water-energy nexus. On a life cycle basis per unit of electricity generated, operational (e.g., cooling system) water use is substantially higher than water demands for the fuel cycle (e.g., natural gas and coal) and power plant manufacturing (e.g., equipment and construction). However, could shifting toward low carbon and low water electric power operations create trade-offs across the electricity life cycle? We compare business-as-usual with scenarios of carbon reductions and water constraints using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model. Our scenarios show that, for water withdrawals, the trade-offs are minimal: operational water use accounts for over 95% of life cycle withdrawals. For water consumption, however, this analysis identifies potential trade-offs under some scenarios. Nationally, water use for the fuel cycle and power plant manufacturing can reach up to 26% of the total life cycle consumption. In the western United States, nonoperational consumption can even exceed operational demands. In particular, water use for biomass feedstock irrigation and manufacturing/construction of solar power facilities could increase with high deployment. As the United States moves toward lower carbon electric power operations, consideration of shifting water demands can help avoid unintended consequences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca S Dodder
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development , Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711, United States
| | - Jessica T Barnwell
- Student Services Contractor, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development , Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711, United States
| | - William H Yelverton
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development , Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711, United States
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Zhang Y, Bowden JH, Adelman Z, Naik V, Horowitz LW, Smith SJ, West JJ. Co-benefits of global and regional greenhouse gas mitigation on U.S. air quality in 2050. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 2016; 16:9533-9548. [PMID: 30245703 PMCID: PMC6150466 DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-9533-2016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Policies to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will not only slow climate change, but can also have ancillary benefits of improved air quality. Here we examine the co-benefits of both global and regional GHG mitigation on U.S. air quality in 2050 at fine resolution, using dynamical downscaling methods, building on a previous global co-benefits study (West et al., 2013). The co-benefits for U.S. air quality are quantified via two mechanisms: through reductions in co-emitted air pollutants from the same sources, and by slowing climate change and its influence on air quality, following West et al. (2013). Additionally, we separate the total co-benefits into contributions from domestic GHG mitigation versus mitigation in foreign countries. We use the WRF model to dynamically downscale future global climate to the regional scale, the SMOKE program to directly process global anthropogenic emissions into the regional domain, and we provide dynamical boundary conditions from global simulations to the regional CMAQ model. The total co-benefits of global GHG mitigation from the RCP4.5 scenario compared with its reference are estimated to be higher in the eastern U.S. (ranging from 0.6-1.0 μg m-3) than the west (0-0.4 μg m-3) for PM2.5, with an average of 0.47 μg m-3 over U.S.; for O3, the total co-benefits are more uniform at 2-5 ppb with U.S. average of 3.55 ppb. Comparing the two mechanisms of co-benefits, we find that reductions of co-emitted air pollutants have a much greater influence on both PM2.5 (96% of the total co-benefits) and O3 (89% of the total) than the second co-benefits mechanism via slowing climate change, consistent with West et al. (2013). GHG mitigation from foreign countries contributes more to the U.S. O3 reduction (76% of the total) than that from domestic GHG mitigation only (24%), highlighting the importance of global methane reductions and the intercontinental transport of air pollutants. For PM2.5, the benefits of domestic GHG control are greater (74% of total). Since foreign contributions to co-benefits can be substantial, with foreign O3 benefits much larger than those from domestic reductions, previous studies that focus on local or regional co-benefits may greatly underestimate the total co-benefits of global GHG reductions. We conclude that the U.S. can gain significantly greater domestic air quality co-benefits by engaging with other nations to control GHGs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuqiang Zhang
- Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599
| | - Jared H. Bowden
- Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599
| | - Zachariah Adelman
- Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599
- Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599
| | - Vaishali Naik
- UCAR/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540
| | | | - Steven J. Smith
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740
| | - J. Jason West
- Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599
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Dai Z, Viswanathan H, Middleton R, Pan F, Ampomah W, Yang C, Jia W, Xiao T, Lee SY, McPherson B, Balch R, Grigg R, White M. CO2 Accounting and Risk Analysis for CO2 Sequestration at Enhanced Oil Recovery Sites. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2016; 50:7546-7554. [PMID: 27362472 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b01744] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Using CO2 in enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) is a promising technology for emissions management because CO2-EOR can dramatically reduce sequestration costs in the absence of emissions policies that include incentives for carbon capture and storage. This study develops a multiscale statistical framework to perform CO2 accounting and risk analysis in an EOR environment at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major risk metrics: CO2/water injection/production rates, cumulative net CO2 storage, cumulative oil/gas productions, and CO2 breakthrough time. The median and confidence intervals are estimated for quantifying uncertainty ranges of the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO2-EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable. The results from this study provide valuable insights for understanding CO2 storage potential and the corresponding environmental and economic risks of commercial-scale CO2-sequestration in depleted reservoirs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhenxue Dai
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory , Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, United States
| | - Hari Viswanathan
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory , Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, United States
| | - Richard Middleton
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory , Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, United States
| | - Feng Pan
- Energy and Geoscience Institute, The University of Utah , Salt Lake City, Utah 84108, United States
| | - William Ampomah
- Petroleum Recovery Research Center, New Mexico Tech , Socorro, New Mexico 87801, United States
| | - Changbing Yang
- Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin , Austin, Texas 78713, United States
| | - Wei Jia
- Energy and Geoscience Institute, The University of Utah , Salt Lake City, Utah 84108, United States
| | - Ting Xiao
- Energy and Geoscience Institute, The University of Utah , Salt Lake City, Utah 84108, United States
| | - Si-Yong Lee
- Schlumberger Carbon Services , Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
| | - Brian McPherson
- Energy and Geoscience Institute, The University of Utah , Salt Lake City, Utah 84108, United States
| | - Robert Balch
- Petroleum Recovery Research Center, New Mexico Tech , Socorro, New Mexico 87801, United States
| | - Reid Grigg
- Petroleum Recovery Research Center, New Mexico Tech , Socorro, New Mexico 87801, United States
| | - Mark White
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , Richland, Washington 99354, United States
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10
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Garcia-Menendez F, Saari RK, Monier E, Selin NE. U.S. Air Quality and Health Benefits from Avoided Climate Change under Greenhouse Gas Mitigation. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2015; 49:7580-8. [PMID: 26053628 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b01324] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
We evaluate the impact of climate change on U.S. air quality and health in 2050 and 2100 using a global modeling framework and integrated economic, climate, and air pollution projections. Three internally consistent socioeconomic scenarios are used to value health benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation policies specifically derived from slowing climate change. Our projections suggest that climate change, exclusive of changes in air pollutant emissions, can significantly impact ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution across the U.S. and increase associated health effects. Climate policy can substantially reduce these impacts, and climate-related air pollution health benefits alone can offset a significant fraction of mitigation costs. We find that in contrast to cobenefits from reductions to coemitted pollutants, the climate-induced air quality benefits of policy increase with time and are largest between 2050 and 2100. Our projections also suggest that increasing climate policy stringency beyond a certain degree may lead to diminishing returns relative to its cost. However, our results indicate that the air quality impacts of climate change are substantial and should be considered by cost-benefit climate policy analyses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fernando Garcia-Menendez
- †Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, ‡Engineering Systems Division, and §Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
| | - Rebecca K Saari
- †Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, ‡Engineering Systems Division, and §Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
| | - Erwan Monier
- †Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, ‡Engineering Systems Division, and §Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
| | - Noelle E Selin
- †Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, ‡Engineering Systems Division, and §Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States
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11
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Rudokas J, Miller PJ, Trail MA, Russell AG. Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2015; 49:5170-5177. [PMID: 25803240 DOI: 10.1021/es505159z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason Rudokas
- †Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, Boston, Massachusetts 02111, United States
| | - Paul J Miller
- †Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, Boston, Massachusetts 02111, United States
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