Global Sensitivity Analysis Challenges in Biological Systems Modeling

The development of drug resistance in metastatic tumours under chemotherapy: An evolutionary perspective

We present a mathematical model of the evolutionary dynamics of a metastatic tumour under chemotherapy, comprising non-local partial differential equations for the phenotype-structured cell populations in the primary tumour and its metastasis. These equations are coupled with a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model of drug administration and distribution, implementing a realistic delivery schedule. The model is carefully calibrated from the literature, focusing on BRAF-mutated melanoma treated with Dabrafenib as a case study. By means of long-time asymptotic and global sensitivity analyses, as well as numerical simulations, we explore the impact of cell migration from the primary to the metastatic site, physiological aspects of the tumour tissues and drug dose on the development of chemoresistance and treatment efficacy. Our findings provide a possible explanation for empirical evidence indicating that chemotherapy may foster metastatic spread and that metastases may be less impacted by the chemotherapeutic agent.

GlyCompute: towards the automated analysis of protein N-linked glycosylation kinetics via an open-source computational framework

Understanding the complex biosynthetic pathways of glycosylation is crucial for the expanding field of glycosciences. Computer-aided glycosylation analysis has greatly benefited in recent years from the development of tools found in web-based portals and open-source libraries. However, the in silico analysis of cellular glycosylation kinetics is underrepresented in current glycoscience-related tools and databases. This could be partly attributed to the limited accessibility of kinetic models developed using proprietary software and the difficulty in reliably parameterising such models. This work aims to address these challenges by proposing GlyCompute, an open-source framework demonstrating a novel, streamlined approach for the assembly, simulation, and parameterisation of kinetic models of protein N-linked glycosylation. Specifically, given one or more sets of experimentally observed N-glycan structures and their relative abundances, minimum representations of a glycosylation reaction network are generated. The topology of the resulting networks is then used to automatically assemble the material balances and kinetic mechanisms underpinning the mathematical model. To match the experimentally observed relative abundances, a sequential parameter estimation strategy using Bayesian inference is proposed, with stages determined automatically based on the underlying network topology. The proposed framework was tested on a case study involving the simultaneous fitting of the kinetic model to two protein N-linked glycoprofiles produced by the same CHO cell culture, showing good agreement with experimental observations. We envision that GlyCompute could help glycoscientists gain quantitative insights into the effect of enzyme kinetics and their perturbations on experimentally observed glycoprofiles in biomanufacturing and clinical settings.

Optimal control problem arising from COVID-19 transmission model with rapid-test

The world health organization (WHO) has declared the Coronavirus (COVID-19) a pandemic. In light of this ongoing global issue, different health and safety measure has been recommended by the WHO to ensure the proactive, comprehensive, and coordinated steps to bring back the whole world into a normal situation. This is an infectious disease and can be modeled as a system of non-linear differential equations with reaction rates which consider the rapid-test as the intervention program. Therefore, we have developed the biologically feasible region, i.e., positively invariant for the model and boundedness solution of the system. Our system becomes well-posed mathematically and epidemiologically for sensitive analysis and our analytical result shows an occurrence of a forward bifurcation when the basic reproduction number is equal to unity. Further, the local sensitivities for each model state concerning the model parameters are computed using three different techniques: non-normalizations, half-normalizations, and full normalizations. The numerical approximations have been measured by using System Biology Toolbox (SBedit) with MATLAB, and the model is analyzed graphically. Our result on the sensitivity analysis shows a potential of rapid-test for the eradication program of COVID-19. Therefore, we continue our result by reconstructing our model as an optimal control problem. Our numerical simulation shows a time-dependent rapid test intervention succeeded in suppressing the spread of COVID-19 effectively with a low cost of the intervention. Finally, we forecast three COVID-19 incidence data from China, Italy, and Pakistan. Our result suggests that Italy already shows a decreasing trend of cases, while Pakistan is getting closer to the peak of COVID-19.

Global sensitivity analysis informed model reduction and selection applied to a Valsalva maneuver model

In this study, we develop a methodology for model reduction and selection informed by global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods. We apply these techniques to a control model that takes systolic blood pressure and thoracic tissue pressure data as inputs and predicts heart rate in response to the Valsalva maneuver (VM). The study compares four GSA methods based on Sobol' indices (SIs) quantifying the parameter influence on the difference between the model output and the heart rate data. The GSA methods include standard scalar SIs determining the average parameter influence over the time interval studied and three time-varying methods analyzing how parameter influence changes over time. The time-varying methods include a new technique, termed limited-memory SIs, predicting parameter influence using a moving window approach. Using the limited-memory SIs, we perform model reduction and selection to analyze the necessity of modeling both the aortic and carotid baroreceptor regions in response to the VM. We compare the original model to systematically reduced models including (i) the aortic and carotid regions, (ii) the aortic region only, and (iii) the carotid region only. Model selection is done quantitatively using the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria and qualitatively by comparing the neurological predictions. Results show that it is necessary to incorporate both the aortic and carotid regions to model the VM.

Towards in silico Process Modeling for Vaccines

Chemical, manufacturing, and control development timelines occupy a significant part of vaccine end-to-end development. In the on-going race for accelerating timelines, in silico process development constitutes a viable strategy that can be achieved through an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven or a mechanistically oriented approach. In this opinion, we focus on the mechanistic option and report on the modeling competencies required to achieve it. By inspecting the most frequent vaccine process units, we identify fluid mechanics, thermodynamics and transport phenomena, intracellular modeling, hybrid modeling and data science, and model-based design of experiments as the pillars for vaccine development. In addition, we craft a generic pathway for accommodating the modeling competencies into an in silico process development strategy.

An Early Stage Researcher's Primer on Systems Medicine Terminology

Background: Systems Medicine is a novel approach to medicine, that is, an interdisciplinary field that considers the human body as a system, composed of multiple parts and of complex relationships at multiple levels, and further integrated into an environment. Exploring Systems Medicine implies understanding and combining concepts coming from diametral different fields, including medicine, biology, statistics, modeling and simulation, and data science. Such heterogeneity leads to semantic issues, which may slow down implementation and fruitful interaction between these highly diverse fields. Methods: In this review, we collect and explain more than100 terms related to Systems Medicine. These include both modeling and data science terms and basic systems medicine terms, along with some synthetic definitions, examples of applications, and lists of relevant references. Results: This glossary aims at being a first aid kit for the Systems Medicine researcher facing an unfamiliar term, where he/she can get a first understanding of them, and, more importantly, examples and references for digging into the topic.

A quantitative and qualitative analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic model

Global efforts around the world are focused on to discuss several health care strategies for minimizing the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) on the community. As it is clear that this virus becomes a public health threat and spreading easily among individuals. Mathematical models with computational simulations are effective tools that help global efforts to estimate key transmission parameters and further improvements for controlling this disease. This is an infectious disease and can be modeled as a system of non-linear differential equations with reaction rates. This work reviews and develops some suggested models for the COVID-19 that can address important questions about global health care and suggest important notes. Then, we suggest an updated model that includes a system of differential equations with transmission parameters. Some key computational simulations and sensitivity analysis are investigated. Also, the local sensitivities for each model state concerning the model parameters are computed using three different techniques: non-normalizations, half normalizations, and full normalizations. Results based on the computational simulations show that the model dynamics are significantly changed for different key model parameters. Interestingly, we identify that transition rates between asymptomatic infected with both reported and unreported symptomatic infected individuals are very sensitive parameters concerning model variables in spreading this disease. This helps international efforts to reduce the number of infected individuals from the disease and to prevent the propagation of new coronavirus more widely on the community. Another novelty of this paper is the identification of the critical model parameters, which makes it easy to be used by biologists with less knowledge of mathematical modeling and also facilitates the improvement of the model for future development theoretically and practically.

Sensitivity analysis and optimization of optical Y-branch structure parameters

Aimed at the structural parameters in the new optical Y-branch, this paper uses the Morris screening method and Sobol method in global sensitivity analysis to analyze the sensitivity of each parameter when the input optical field introduces an offset. The sensitivity parameters of the optical Y-branch are selected, and global sensitivity analysis of the sensitivity parameters is performed. The results of sensitivity analysis improve the parameter optimization process of the optical Y-branch. Finally, the optical Y-branch is optimized to obtain a small insertion loss, good uniformity, low wavelength-dependent loss, and polarization-dependent loss.

Sensitivity analysis methods in the biomedical sciences

Sensitivity analysis is an important part of a mathematical modeller's toolbox for model analysis. In this review paper, we describe the most frequently used sensitivity techniques, discussing their advantages and limitations, before applying each method to a simple model. Also included is a summary of current software packages, as well as a modeller's guide for carrying out sensitivity analyses. Finally, we apply the popular Morris and Sobol methods to two models with biomedical applications, with the intention of providing a deeper understanding behind both the principles of these methods and the presentation of their results.

Global sensitivity analysis of biological multi-scale models

Mathematical models of biological systems need to both reflect and manage the inherent complexities of biological phenomena. Through their versatility and ability to capture behavior at multiple scales, multi-scale models offer a valuable approach. Due to the typically nonlinear and stochastic nature of multi-scale models as well as unknown parameter values, various types of uncertainty are present; thus, effective assessment and quantification of such uncertainty through sensitivity analysis is important. In this review, we discuss global sensitivity analysis in the context of multi-scale and multi-compartment models and highlight its value in model development and analysis. We present an overview of sensitivity analysis methods, approaches for extending such methods to a multi-scale setting, and examples of how sensitivity analysis can inform model reduction. Through schematics and references to past work, we aim to emphasize the advantages and usefulness of such techniques.

Toward a Comprehensive and Efficient Robust Optimization Framework for (Bio)chemical Processes

Model-based design principles have received considerable attention in biotechnology and the chemical industry over the last two decades. However, parameter uncertainties of first-principle models are critical in model-based design and have led to the development of robustification concepts. Various strategies have been introduced to solve the robust optimization problem. Most approaches suffer from either unreasonable computational expense or low approximation accuracy. Moreover, they are not rigorous and do not consider robust optimization problems where parameter correlation and equality constraints exist. In this work, we propose a highly efficient framework for solving robust optimization problems with the so-called point estimation method (PEM). The PEM has a fair trade-off between computational expense and approximation accuracy and can be easily extended to problems of parameter correlations. From a statistical point of view, moment-based methods are used to approximate robust inequality and equality constraints for a robust process design. We also apply a global sensitivity analysis to further simplify robust optimization problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed framework with two case studies: (1) designing a heating/cooling profile for the essential part of a continuous production process; and (2) optimizing the feeding profile for a fed-batch reactor of the penicillin fermentation process. According to the derived results, the proposed framework of robust process design addresses uncertainties adequately and scales well with the number of uncertain parameters. Thus, the described robustification concept should be an ideal candidate for more complex (bio)chemical problems in model-based design.

Stem cell biomanufacturing under uncertainty: A case study in optimizing red blood cell production

As breakthrough cellular therapy discoveries are translated into reliable, commercializable applications, effective stem cell biomanufacturing requires systematically developing and optimizing bioprocess design and operation. This article proposes a rigorous computational framework for stem cell biomanufacturing under uncertainty. Our mathematical tool kit incorporates: high‐fidelity modeling, single variate and multivariate sensitivity analysis, global topological superstructure optimization, and robust optimization. The advantages of the proposed bioprocess optimization framework using, as a case study, a dual hollow fiber bioreactor producing red blood cells from progenitor cells were quantitatively demonstrated. The optimization phase reduces the cost by a factor of 4, and the price of insuring process performance against uncertainty is approximately 15% over the nominal optimal solution. Mathematical modeling and optimization can guide decision making; the possible commercial impact of this cellular therapy using the disruptive technology paradigm was quantitatively evaluated. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 64: 3011–3022, 2018

Relevant biological processes for tissue development with stem cells and their mechanistic modeling: A review

A potential alternative for tissue transplants is tissue engineering, in which the interaction of cells and biomaterials can be optimized. Tissue development in vitro depends on the complex interaction of several biological processes such as extracellular matrix synthesis, vascularization and cell proliferation, adhesion, migration, death, and differentiation. The complexity of an individual phenomenon or of the combination of these processes can be studied with phenomenological modeling techniques. This work reviews the main biological phenomena in tissue development and their mathematical modeling, focusing on mesenchymal stem cell growth in three-dimensional scaffolds.

Optimal bioprocess design through a gene regulatory network - Growth kinetic hybrid model: Towards replacing Monod kinetics

Currently, design and optimisation of biotechnological bioprocesses is performed either through exhaustive experimentation and/or with the use of empirical, unstructured growth kinetics models. Whereas, elaborate systems biology approaches have been recently explored, mixed-substrate utilisation is predominantly ignored despite its significance in enhancing bioprocess performance. Herein, bioprocess optimisation for an industrially-relevant bioremediation process involving a mixture of highly toxic substrates, m-xylene and toluene, was achieved through application of a novel experimental-modelling gene regulatory network - growth kinetic (GRN-GK) hybrid framework. The GRN model described the TOL and ortho-cleavage pathways in Pseudomonas putida mt-2 and captured the transcriptional kinetics expression patterns of the promoters. The GRN model informed the formulation of the growth kinetics model replacing the empirical and unstructured Monod kinetics. The GRN-GK framework's predictive capability and potential as a systematic optimal bioprocess design tool, was demonstrated by effectively predicting bioprocess performance, which was in agreement with experimental values, when compared to four commonly used models that deviated significantly from the experimental values. Significantly, a fed-batch biodegradation process was designed and optimised through the model-based control of TOL Pr promoter expression resulting in 61% and 60% enhanced pollutant removal and biomass formation, respectively, compared to the batch process. This provides strong evidence of model-based bioprocess optimisation at the gene level, rendering the GRN-GK framework as a novel and applicable approach to optimal bioprocess design. Finally, model analysis using global sensitivity analysis (GSA) suggests an alternative, systematic approach for model-driven strain modification for synthetic biology and metabolic engineering applications.

Mathematical modelling of interacting mechanisms for hypoxia mediated cell cycle commitment for mesenchymal stromal cells

Background

Existing experimental data have shown hypoxia to be an important factor affecting the proliferation of mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs), but the contrasting observations made at various hypoxic levels raise the questions of whether hypoxia accelerates proliferation, and how. On the other hand, in order to meet the increasing demand of MSCs, an optimised bioreactor control strategy is needed to enhance in vitro production.

Results

A comprehensive, single-cell mathematical model has been constructed in this work, which combines cellular oxygen sensing with hypoxia-mediated cell cycle progression to predict cell cycle commitment as a proxy to proliferation rate. With oxygen levels defined for in vitro cell culture, the model predicts enhanced proliferation under intermediate (2–8%) and mild (8–15%) hypoxia and cell quiescence under severe (< 2%) hypoxia. Global sensitivity analysis and quasi-Monte Carlo simulation revealed that within a certain range (+/− 100%), model parameters affect (with varying significance) the minimum commitment time, but the existence of a range of optimal oxygen tension could be preserved with the hypothesized effects of Hif2α and reactive oxygen species (ROS). It appears that Hif2α counteracts Hif1α and ROS-mediated protein deactivation under intermediate hypoxia and normoxia (20%), respectively, to regulate the response of cell cycle commitment to oxygen tension.

Conclusion

Overall, this modelling study offered an integrative framework to capture several interacting mechanisms and allowed in silico analysis of their individual and collective roles in shaping the hypoxia-mediated commitment to cell cycle. The model offers a starting point to the establishment of a suitable mechanism that can satisfactorily explain the different existing experimental observations from different studies, and warrants future extension and dedicated experimental validation to eventually support bioreactor optimisation.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12918-018-0560-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling in Lead Optimization. 2. Rational Bioavailability Design by Global Sensitivity Analysis To Identify Properties Affecting Bioavailability

When medicinal chemists need to improve oral bioavailability (%F) during lead optimization, they systematically modify compound properties mainly based on their own experience and general rules of thumb. However, at least a dozen properties can influence %F, and the difficulty of multiparameter optimization for such complex nonlinear processes grows combinatorially with the number of variables. Furthermore, strategies can be in conflict. For example, adding a polar or charged group will generally increase solubility but decrease permeability. Identifying the 2 or 3 properties that most influence %F for a given compound series would make %F optimization much more efficient. We previously reported an adaptation of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) simulations to predict %F for lead series from purely computational inputs within a 2-fold average error. Here, we run thousands of such simulations to generate a comprehensive "bioavailability landscape" for each series. A key innovation was recognition that the large and variable number of p K_a's in drug molecules could be replaced by just the two straddling the isoelectric point. Another was use of the ZINC database to cull out chemically inaccessible regions of property space. A quadratic partial least squares regression (PLS) accurately fits a continuous surface to these thousands of bioavailability predictions. The PLS coefficients indicate the globally sensitive compound properties. The PLS surface also displays the %F landscape in these sensitive properties locally around compounds of particular interest. Finally, being quick to calculate, the PLS equation can be combined with models for activity and other properties for multiobjective lead optimization.

Sobol Sensitivity Analysis: A Tool to Guide the Development and Evaluation of Systems Pharmacology Models

A systems pharmacology model typically integrates pharmacokinetic, biochemical network, and systems biology concepts into a unifying approach. It typically consists of a large number of parameters and reaction species that are interlinked based upon the underlying (patho)physiology and the mechanism of drug action. The more complex these models are, the greater the challenge of reliably identifying and estimating respective model parameters. Global sensitivity analysis provides an innovative tool that can meet this challenge. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst. Pharmacol. (2015) 4, 69-79; doi:10.1002/psp4.6; published online 25 February 2015.

Modeling and simulation for toxicity assessment

The effect of various toxicants on growth/death and morphology of human cells is investigated using the xCELLigence Real-Time Cell Analysis High Troughput in vitro assay. The cell index is measured as a proxy for the number of cells, and for each test substance in each cell line, time-dependent concentration response curves (TCRCs) are generated. In this paper we propose a mathematical model to study the effect of toxicants with various initial concentrations on the cell index. This model is based on the logistic equation and linear kinetics. We consider a three dimensional system of differential equations with variables corresponding to the cell index, the intracellular concentration of toxicant, and the extracellular concentration of toxicant. To efficiently estimate the model's parameters, we design an Expectation Maximization algorithm. The model is validated by showing that it accurately represents the information provided by the TCRCs recorded after the experiments. Using stability analysis and numerical simulations, we determine the lowest concentration of toxin that can kill the cells. This information can be used to better design experimental studies for cytotoxicity profiling assessment.

Global sensitivity analysis of a model related to memory formation in synapses: Model reduction based on epistemic parameter uncertainties and related issues

We investigate the epistemic uncertainties of parameters of a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of CaMKII-NMDAR complex related to memory formation in synapses using global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The model, which was published in this journal, is nonlinear and complex with Ca²⁺ patterns with different level of frequencies as inputs. We explore the effects of parameter on the key outputs of the model to discover the most sensitive ones using GSA and partial ranking correlation coefficient (PRCC) and to understand why they are sensitive and others are not based on the biology of the problem. We also extend the model to add presynaptic neurotransmitter vesicles release to have action potentials as inputs of different frequencies. We perform GSA on this extended model to show that the parameter sensitivities are different for the extended model as shown by PRCC landscapes. Based on the results of GSA and PRCC, we reduce the original model to a less complex model taking the most important biological processes into account. We validate the reduced model against the outputs of the original model. We show that the parameter sensitivities are dependent on the inputs and GSA would make us understand the sensitivities and the importance of the parameters. A thorough phenomenological understanding of the relationships involved is essential to interpret the results of GSA and hence for the possible model reduction.

Global sensitivity analysis and Bayesian parameter inference for solute transport in porous media colonized by biofilms

The concept of dual flowing continuum is a promising approach for modeling solute transport in porous media that includes biofilm phases. The highly dispersed transit time distributions often generated by these media are taken into consideration by simply stipulating that advection-dispersion transport occurs through both the porous and the biofilm phases. Both phases are coupled but assigned with contrasting hydrodynamic properties. However, the dual flowing continuum suffers from intrinsic equifinality in the sense that the outlet solute concentration can be the result of several parameter sets of the two flowing phases. To assess the applicability of the dual flowing continuum, we investigate how the model behaves with respect to its parameters. For the purpose of this study, a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) and a Statistical Calibration (SC) of model parameters are performed for two transport scenarios that differ by the strength of interaction between the flowing phases. The GSA is shown to be a valuable tool to understand how the complex system behaves. The results indicate that the rate of mass transfer between the two phases is a key parameter of the model behavior and influences the identifiability of the other parameters. For weak mass exchanges, the output concentration is mainly controlled by the velocity in the porous medium and by the porosity of both flowing phases. In the case of large mass exchanges, the kinetics of this exchange also controls the output concentration. The SC results show that transport with large mass exchange between the flowing phases is more likely affected by equifinality than transport with weak exchange. The SC also indicates that weakly sensitive parameters, such as the dispersion in each phase, can be accurately identified. Removing them from calibration procedures is not recommended because it might result in biased estimations of the highly sensitive parameters.

A Personalized Framework for Dynamic Modeling of Disease Trajectories in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is the most common peripheral blood and bone marrow cancer in the developed world. This manuscript proposes mathematical model equations representing the disease dynamics of B-cell CLL. We interconnect delay differential cell cycle models in each of the tumor-involved disease centers using physiologically relevant cell migration. We further introduce five hypothetical case studies representing CLL heterogeneity commonly seen in clinical practice and demonstrate how the proposed CLL model framework may capture disease pathophysiology across patient types. We conclude by exploring the capacity of the proposed temporally- and spatially distributed model to capture the heterogeneity of CLL disease progression. By using global sensitivity analysis, the critical parameters influencing disease trajectory over space and time are: 1) the initial number of CLL cells in peripheral blood, the number of involved lymph nodes, the presence and degree of splenomegaly; 2) the migratory fraction of nonproliferating as well as proliferating CLL cells from bone marrow into blood and of proliferating CLL cells from blood into lymph nodes; and 3) the parameters inducing nonproliferative cells to proliferate. The proposed model offers a practical platform that may be explored in future personalized patient protocols once validated.

A Neutrophil Phenotype Model for Extracorporeal Treatment of Sepsis

Neutrophils play a central role in eliminating bacterial pathogens, but may also contribute to end-organ damage in sepsis. Interleukin-8 (IL-8), a key modulator of neutrophil function, signals through neutrophil specific surface receptors CXCR-1 and CXCR-2. In this study a mechanistic computational model was used to evaluate and deploy an extracorporeal sepsis treatment which modulates CXCR-1/2 levels. First, a simplified mechanistic computational model of IL-8 mediated activation of CXCR-1/2 receptors was developed, containing 16 ODEs and 43 parameters. Receptor level dynamics and systemic parameters were coupled with multiple neutrophil phenotypes to generate dynamic populations of activated neutrophils which reduce pathogen load, and/or primed neutrophils which cause adverse tissue damage when misdirected. The mathematical model was calibrated using experimental data from baboons administered a two-hour infusion of E coli and followed for a maximum of 28 days. Ensembles of parameters were generated using a Bayesian parallel tempering approach to produce model fits that could recreate experimental outcomes. Stepwise logistic regression identified seven model parameters as key determinants of mortality. Sensitivity analysis showed that parameters controlling the level of killer cell neutrophils affected the overall systemic damage of individuals. To evaluate rescue strategies and provide probabilistic predictions of their impact on mortality, time of onset, duration, and capture efficacy of an extracorporeal device that modulated neutrophil phenotype were explored. Our findings suggest that interventions aiming to modulate phenotypic composition are time sensitive. When introduced between 3–6 hours of infection for a 72 hour duration, the survivor population increased from 31% to 40–80%. Treatment efficacy quickly diminishes if not introduced within 15 hours of infection. Significant harm is possible with treatment durations ranging from 5–24 hours, which may reduce survival to 13%. In severe sepsis, an extracorporeal treatment which modulates CXCR-1/2 levels has therapeutic potential, but also potential for harm. Further development of the computational model will help guide optimal device development and determine which patient populations should be targeted by treatment.

Sepsis occurs when a patient develops a whole body immune response due to infection. In this condition, white blood cells called neutrophils circulate in an active state, seeking and eliminating invading bacteria. However, when neutrophils are activated, healthy tissue is inadvertently targeted, leading to organ damage and potentially death. Even though sepsis kills millions worldwide, there are still no specific treatments approved in the United States. This may be due to the complexity and diversity of the body’s immune response, which can be managed well using computational modeling. We have developed a computational model to predict how different levels of neutrophil activation impact survival in an overactive inflammatory conditions. The model was utilized to assess the effectiveness of a simulated experimental sepsis treatment which modulates neutrophil populations and activity. This evaluation determined that treatment timing plays a critical role in therapeutic effectiveness. When utilized properly the treatment drastically improves survival, but there is also risk of causing patient harm when introduced at the wrong time. We intend for this computational model to support and guide further development of sepsis treatments and help translate these preliminary results from bench to bedside.

Cyclin and DNA distributed cell cycle model for GS-NS0 cells

Mammalian cell cultures are intrinsically heterogeneous at different scales (molecular to bioreactor). The cell cycle is at the centre of capturing heterogeneity since it plays a critical role in the growth, death, and productivity of mammalian cell cultures. Current cell cycle models use biological variables (mass/volume/age) that are non-mechanistic, and difficult to experimentally determine, to describe cell cycle transition and capture culture heterogeneity. To address this problem, cyclins-key molecules that regulate cell cycle transition-have been utilized. Herein, a novel integrated experimental-modelling platform is presented whereby experimental quantification of key cell cycle metrics (cell cycle timings, cell cycle fractions, and cyclin expression determined by flow cytometry) is used to develop a cyclin and DNA distributed model for the industrially relevant cell line, GS-NS0. Cyclins/DNA synthesis rates were linked to stimulatory/inhibitory factors in the culture medium, which ultimately affect cell growth. Cell antibody productivity was characterized using cell cycle-specific production rates. The solution method delivered fast computational time that renders the model's use suitable for model-based applications. Model structure was studied by global sensitivity analysis (GSA), which identified parameters with a significant effect on the model output, followed by re-estimation of its significant parameters from a control set of batch experiments. A good model fit to the experimental data, both at the cell cycle and viable cell density levels, was observed. The cell population heterogeneity of disturbed (after cell arrest) and undisturbed cell growth was captured proving the versatility of the modelling approach. Cell cycle models able to capture population heterogeneity facilitate in depth understanding of these complex systems and enable systematic formulation of culture strategies to improve growth and productivity. It is envisaged that this modelling approach will pave the model-based development of industrial cell lines and clinical studies.

Global sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model of acute inflammation identifies nonlinear dependence of cumulative tissue damage on host interleukin-6 responses

The precise inflammatory role of the cytokine interleukin (IL)-6 and its utility as a biomarker or therapeutic target have been the source of much debate, presumably due to the complex pro- and anti-inflammatory effects of this cytokine. We previously developed a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) model to explain the dynamics of endotoxin (lipopolysaccharide; LPS)-induced acute inflammation and associated whole-animal damage/dysfunction (a proxy for the health of the organism), along with the inflammatory mediators tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, IL-6, IL-10, and nitric oxide (NO). The model was partially calibrated using data from endotoxemic C57Bl/6 mice. Herein, we investigated the sensitivity of the area under the damage curve (AUCD) to the 51 rate parameters of the ODE model for different levels of simulated LPS challenges using a global sensitivity approach called Random Sampling High Dimensional Model Representation (RS-HDMR). We explored sufficient parametric Monte Carlo samples to generate the variance-based Sobol' global sensitivity indices, and found that inflammatory damage was highly sensitive to the parameters affecting the activity of IL-6 during the different stages of acute inflammation. The AUCIL6 showed a bimodal distribution, with the lower peak representing healthy response and the higher peak representing sustained inflammation. Damage was minimal at low AUCIL6, giving rise to a healthy response. In contrast, intermediate levels of AUCIL6 resulted in high damage, and this was due to the insufficiency of damage recovery driven by anti-inflammatory responses from IL-10 and the activation of positive feedback sustained by IL-6. At high AUCIL6, damage recovery was interestingly restored in some population of simulated animals due to the NO-mediated anti-inflammatory responses. These observations suggest that the host's health status during acute inflammation depends in a nonlinear fashion on the magnitude of the inflammatory stimulus, on the host's propensity to produce IL-6, and on NO-mediated downstream responses.

Systematic methodology for the development of mathematical models for biological processes

Synthetic biology gives researchers the opportunity to rationally (re-)design cellular activities to achieve a desired function. The design of networks of pathways towards accomplishing this calls for the application of engineering principles, often using model-based tools. Success heavily depends on model reliability. Herein, we present a systematic methodology for developing predictive models comprising model formulation considerations, global sensitivity analysis, model reduction (for highly complex models or where experimental data are limited), optimal experimental design for parameter estimation, and predictive capability checking. Its efficacy and validity are demonstrated using an example from bioprocessing. This approach systematizes the process of developing reliable mathematical models at a minimum experimental cost, enabling in silico simulation and optimization.

Towards controlling the glycoform: a model framework linking extracellular metabolites to antibody glycosylation

Glycoproteins represent the largest group of the growing number of biologically-derived medicines. The associated glycan structures and their distribution are known to have a large impact on pharmacokinetics. A modelling framework was developed to provide a link from the extracellular environment and its effect on intracellular metabolites to the distribution of glycans on the constant region of an antibody product. The main focus of this work is the mechanistic in silico reconstruction of the nucleotide sugar donor (NSD) metabolic network by means of 34 species mass balances and the saturation kinetics rates of the 60 metabolic reactions involved. NSDs are the co-substrates of the glycosylation process in the Golgi apparatus and their simulated dynamic intracellular concentration profiles were linked to an existing model describing the distribution of N-linked glycan structures of the antibody constant region. The modelling framework also describes the growth dynamics of the cell population by means of modified Monod kinetics. Simulation results match well to experimental data from a murine hybridoma cell line. The result is a modelling platform which is able to describe the product glycoform based on extracellular conditions. It represents a first step towards the in silico prediction of the glycoform of a biotherapeutic and provides a platform for the optimisation of bioprocess conditions with respect to product quality.

What can we learn from global sensitivity analysis of biochemical systems?

Most biological models of intermediate size, and probably all large models, need to cope with the fact that many of their parameter values are unknown. In addition, it may not be possible to identify these values unambiguously on the basis of experimental data. This poses the question how reliable predictions made using such models are. Sensitivity analysis is commonly used to measure the impact of each model parameter on its variables. However, the results of such analyses can be dependent on an exact set of parameter values due to nonlinearity. To mitigate this problem, global sensitivity analysis techniques are used to calculate parameter sensitivities in a wider parameter space. We applied global sensitivity analysis to a selection of five signalling and metabolic models, several of which incorporate experimentally well-determined parameters. Assuming these models represent physiological reality, we explored how the results could change under increasing amounts of parameter uncertainty. Our results show that parameter sensitivities calculated with the physiological parameter values are not necessarily the most frequently observed under random sampling, even in a small interval around the physiological values. Often multimodal distributions were observed. Unsurprisingly, the range of possible sensitivity coefficient values increased with the level of parameter uncertainty, though the amount of parameter uncertainty at which the pattern of control was able to change differed among the models analysed. We suggest that this level of uncertainty can be used as a global measure of model robustness. Finally a comparison of different global sensitivity analysis techniques shows that, if high-throughput computing resources are available, then random sampling may actually be the most suitable technique.