Spatiotemporal characterization of PM2.5, O3, and trace gases associated with East Asian continental outflows via drone sounding

East Asian continental outflows with PM2.5, O3, and other species may determine the baseline conditions and affect the air quality in downwind areas via long-range transport (LRT). To gain insight into the impact and spatiotemporal characteristics of airborne pollutants in East Asian continental outflows, a versatile multicopter drone sounding platform was used to simultaneously observe PM2.5, O3, CO2, and meteorological variables (temperature, specific humidity, pressure, and wind vector) above the northern tip of Taiwan, Cape Fuiguei, which often encounters continental outflows during winter monsoon periods. By coordinating hourly high-spatial-resolution profiles provided by drone soundings, WRF/CMAQ model air quality predictions, HYSPLIT-simulated backward trajectories, and MERRA-2 reanalysis data, we analyzed two prominent phenomena of airborne pollutants in continental outflows to better understand their physical/chemical characteristics. First, we found that pollutants were well mixed within a sounding height of 500 m when continental outflows passed through and completely enveloped Cape Fuiguei. Eddies induced by significant fluctuations in wind speeds coupled with minimal temperature inversion and LRT facilitated vertical mixing, possibly resulting in high homogeneity of pollutants within the outflow layer. Second, the drone soundings indicated exceptionally high O3 concentrations (70-100 ppbv) but relatively low concentrations of PM2.5 (10-20 μg/m3), CO2 (420-425 ppmv), and VOCs in some air masses. The low levels of PM2.5, CO2, and VOCs ruled out photochemistry as the cause of the formation of high-level O3. Further coordination of spatiotemporal data with air mass trajectories and O3 cross sections provided by MERRA-2 suggested that the high O3 concentrations could be attributed to stratospheric intrusion and advection via continental outflows. High-level O3 concentrations persisted in the lower troposphere, even reaching the surface, suggesting that stratospheric intrusion O3 may be involved in the rising trend in O3 concentrations in parts of East Asia in recent years in addition to surface photochemical factors.

Invert global and China's terrestrial carbon fluxes over 2019-2021 based on assimilating richer atmospheric CO2 observations

With China's commitment to reach carbon peak by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, it is particularly important to obtain terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes with low uncertainty both globally and in China. The use of more observation data may help reduce the uncertainty of inverting carbon fluxes. This study uses the observation data from global stations, background stations and provincial stations in China, as well as the OCO-2 satellite, and uses the China Carbon Monitoring, Verification and Supporting System for Global (CCMVS-G) to estimate the carbon fluxes of global and Chinese terrestrial ecosystems from 2019 to 2021. The results revealed that the global terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink was approximately -3.40 Pg C/yr from 2019 to 2021. The carbon sinks in the Northern Hemisphere are large, especially in Asia, North America, and Europe. From 2019 to 2021, the carbon sink of China's terrestrial ecosystem was approximately -0.44 Pg C/yr. Carbon sinks exhibit significant seasonal and interannual variations in China. After assimilating the observation data, the uncertainty of the posterior flux is smaller than that of the prior flux, a more reasonable distribution of carbon sources and sinks can be obtained, and more accurate boundary conditions can be provided for the China Carbon Monitoring, Verification and Supporting System for Regional (CCMVS-R). In the future, it is important to establish a well-designed CO2 ground-based observation network.

Sea-surface pCO2 maps for the Bay of Bengal based on advanced machine learning algorithms

Lack of sufficient observations has been an impediment for understanding the spatial and temporal variability of sea-surface pCO2 for the Bay of Bengal (BoB). The limited number of observations into existing machine learning (ML) products from BoB often results in high prediction errors. This study develops climatological sea-surface pCO2 maps using a significant number of open and coastal ocean observations of pCO2 and associated variables regulating pCO2 variability in BoB. We employ four advanced ML algorithms to predict pCO2. We use the best ML model to produce a high-resolution climatological product (INCOIS-ReML). The comparison of INCOIS-ReML pCO2 with RAMA buoy-based sea-surface pCO2 observations indicates INCOIS-ReML's satisfactory performance. Further, the comparison of INCOIS-ReML pCO2 with existing ML products establishes the superiority of INCOIS-ReML. The high-resolution INCOIS-ReML greatly captures the spatial variability of pCO2 and associated air-sea CO2 flux compared to other ML products in the coastal BoB and the northern BoB.

Improved atmospheric constraints on Southern Ocean CO2 exchange

We present improved estimates of air-sea CO2 exchange over three latitude bands of the Southern Ocean using atmospheric CO2 measurements from global airborne campaigns and an atmospheric 4-box inverse model based on a mass-indexed isentropic coordinate (Mθe). These flux estimates show two features not clearly resolved in previous estimates based on inverting surface CO2 measurements: a weak winter-time outgassing in the polar region and a sharp phase transition of the seasonal flux cycles between polar/subpolar and subtropical regions. The estimates suggest much stronger summer-time uptake in the polar/subpolar regions than estimates derived through neural-network interpolation of pCO2 data obtained with profiling floats but somewhat weaker uptake than a recent study by Long et al. [Science 374, 1275-1280 (2021)], who used the same airborne data and multiple atmospheric transport models (ATMs) to constrain surface fluxes. Our study also uses moist static energy (MSE) budgets from reanalyses to show that most ATMs tend to have excessive diabatic mixing (transport across moist isentrope, θe, or Mθe surfaces) at high southern latitudes in the austral summer, which leads to biases in estimates of air-sea CO2 exchange. Furthermore, we show that the MSE-based constraint is consistent with an independent constraint on atmospheric mixing based on combining airborne and surface CO2 observations.

A portable low-cost device to quantify advective gas fluxes from mofettes into the lower atmosphere: First application to Starzach mofettes (Germany)

In this study, we introduce a portable low-cost device for in situ gas emission measurement from focused point sources of CO2, such as mofettes. We assess the individual sensors' precision with calibration experiments and perform an independent verification of the system's ability to measure gas flow rates in the range of liters per second. The results from one week of continuous CO2 flow observation from a wet mofette at the Starzach site is presented and correlated with the ambient meteorological dynamics. In the observed period, the gas flow rate of the examined mofette exhibits a dominant cycle of around four seconds that is linked to the gas rising upwards through a water column. We find the examined mofette to have a daily emission of 465 kg ±16 %. Furthermore, two events were observed that increased the flow rate abruptly by around 25 % within only a few minutes and a decaying period of 24 hours. These types of events were previously observed by others at the same site but dismissed as measurement errors. We discuss these events as a hydrogeological phenomenon similar to cold-water geyser eruptions. For meteorological events like the passages of high pressure fronts with steep changes in atmospheric pressure, we do not see a significant correlation between atmospheric parameters and the rate of gas exhalation in our one-week time frame, suggesting that on short timescales the atmospheric pumping effect plays a minor role for wet mofettes at the Starzach site.

Recent decline in tropical temperature sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate variability

A two-fold enhancement in the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) to tropical temperature interannual variability (Γ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ ) till early 2000s has been reported, which suggests a drought-induced shift in terrestrial carbon cycle responding temperature fluctuations, thereby accelerating global warming. However, using six decades long atmospheric CO2 observations, we show thatΓ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ has significantly declined in the last two decades, to the level during the 1960s. TheΓ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ decline begs the question of whether the sensitivity of ecosystem carbon cycle to temperature variations at local scale has largely decreased. With state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models, we further find that the recentΓ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ decline is barely attributed to ecosystem carbon cycle response to temperature fluctuations at local scale, which instead results from a decrease in spatial coherence in tropical temperature variability and land use change. Our results suggest that the recently reported loss of rainforest resilience has not shown marked influence on the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem carbon cycle. Nevertheless, the increasing extent of land use change as well as more frequent and intensive drought events are likely to modulate the responses of ecosystem carbon cycle to temperature variations in the future. Therefore, our study highlights the priority to continuously monitor the temperature sensitivity of CGR variability and improve Earth system model representation on land use change, in order to predict the carbon-climate feedback.

Temperature dependence of spring carbon uptake in northern high latitudes during the past four decades

In the northern high latitudes, warmer spring temperatures generally lead to earlier leaf onsets, higher vegetation production, and enhanced spring carbon uptake. Yet, whether this positive linkage has diminished under climate change remains debated. Here, we used atmospheric CO2 measurements at Barrow (Alaska) during 1979-2020 to investigate the strength of temperature dependence of spring carbon uptake reflected by two indicators, spring zero-crossing date (SZC) and CO2 drawdown (SCC). We found a fall and rise in the interannual correlation of temperature with SZC and SCC (RSZC-T and RSCC-T ), showing a recent reversal of the previously reported weakening trend of RSZC-T and RSCC-T . We used a terrestrial biosphere model coupled with an atmospheric transport model to reproduce this fall and rise phenomenon and conducted factorial simulations to explore its potential causes. We found that a strong-weak-strong spatial synchrony of spring temperature anomalies per se has contributed to the fall and rise trend in RSZC-T and RSCC-T , despite an overall unbroken temperature control on net ecosystem CO2 fluxes at local scale. Our results provide an alternative explanation for the apparent drop of RSZC-T and RSCC-T during the late 1990s and 2000s, and suggest a continued positive linkage between spring carbon uptake and temperature during the past four decades. We thus caution the interpretation of apparent climate sensitivities of carbon cycle retrieved from spatially aggregated signals.

Record-high CO2 emissions from boreal fires in 2021

Extreme wildfires are becoming more common and increasingly affecting Earth's climate. Wildfires in boreal forests have attracted much less attention than those in tropical forests, although boreal forests are one of the most extensive biomes on Earth and are experiencing the fastest warming. We used a satellite-based atmospheric inversion system to monitor fire emissions in boreal forests. Wildfires are rapidly expanding into boreal forests with emerging warmer and drier fire seasons. Boreal fires, typically accounting for 10% of global fire carbon dioxide emissions, contributed 23% (0.48 billion metric tons of carbon) in 2021, by far the highest fraction since 2000. 2021 was an abnormal year because North American and Eurasian boreal forests synchronously experienced their greatest water deficit. Increasing numbers of extreme boreal fires and stronger climate-fire feedbacks challenge climate mitigation efforts.

Constraining China's land carbon sink from emerging satellite CO2 observations: Progress and challenges

Land carbon sink is a vital component for the achievement of China's ambitious carbon neutrality goal, but its magnitude is poorly known. Atmospheric observations and inverse models are valuable tools to constrain the China's land carbon sink. Space-based CO₂ measurements from satellites form an emerging data stream for application of such atmospheric inversions. Here, we reviewed the satellite missions that is dedicated to the monitoring of CO₂ , and the recent progresses on the inversion of China's land carbon sink using satellite CO₂ measurements. We summarized the limitations and challenges in current space platforms, retrieval algorithms, and the inverse modeling. It is shown that there are large uncertainties of contemporary satellite-based estimates of China's land carbon sink. We discussed future opportunities of continuous improvements in three aspects to better constrain China's land carbon sink with space-based CO₂ measurements.

Wetland emission and atmospheric sink changes explain methane growth in 2020

Atmospheric methane growth reached an exceptionally high rate of 15.1 ± 0.4 parts per billion per year in 2020 despite a probable decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions during COVID-19 lockdowns¹. Here we quantify changes in methane sources and in its atmospheric sink in 2020 compared with 2019. We find that, globally, total anthropogenic emissions decreased by 1.2 ± 0.1 teragrams of methane per year (Tg CH₄ yr^-1), fire emissions decreased by 6.5 ± 0.1 Tg CH₄ yr^-1 and wetland emissions increased by 6.0 ± 2.3 Tg CH₄ yr^-1. Tropospheric OH concentration decreased by 1.6 ± 0.2 per cent relative to 2019, mainly as a result of lower anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions and associated lower free tropospheric ozone during pandemic lockdowns². From atmospheric inversions, we also infer that global net emissions increased by 6.9 ± 2.1 Tg CH₄ yr^-1 in 2020 relative to 2019, and global methane removal from reaction with OH decreased by 7.5 ± 0.8 Tg CH₄ yr^-1. Therefore, we attribute the methane growth rate anomaly in 2020 relative to 2019 to lower OH sink (53 ± 10 per cent) and higher natural emissions (47 ± 16 per cent), mostly from wetlands. In line with previous findings^3,4, our results imply that wetland methane emissions are sensitive to a warmer and wetter climate and could act as a positive feedback mechanism in the future. Our study also suggests that nitrogen oxide emission trends need to be taken into account when implementing the global anthropogenic methane emissions reduction pledge⁵.

Enhance seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 by the changing Southern Ocean carbon sink

The enhanced seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO₂ has been viewed so far primarily as a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon. Yet, analyses of atmospheric CO₂ records from 49 stations between 1980 and 2018 reveal substantial trends and variations in this amplitude globally. While no significant trends can be discerned before 2000 in most places, strong positive trends emerge after 2000 in the southern high latitudes. Using factorial simulations with an atmospheric transport model and analyses of surface ocean Pco₂ observations, we show that the increase is best explained by the onset of increasing seasonality of air-sea CO₂ exchange over the Southern Ocean around 2000. Underlying these changes is the long-term ocean acidification trend that tends to enhance the seasonality of the air-sea fluxes, but this trend is modified by the decadal variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. The seasonal variations of atmospheric CO₂ thus emerge as a sensitive recorder of the variations of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.

Regional and seasonal partitioning of water and temperature controls on global land carbon uptake variability

Global fluctuations in annual land carbon uptake (NEE_IAV) depend on water and temperature variability, yet debate remains about local and seasonal controls of the global dependences. Here, we quantify regional and seasonal contributions to the correlations of globally-averaged NEE_IAV against terrestrial water storage (TWS) and temperature, and respective uncertainties, using three approaches: atmospheric inversions, process-based vegetation models, and data-driven models. The three approaches agree that the tropics contribute over 63% of the global correlations, but differ on the dominant driver of the global NEE_IAV, because they disagree on seasonal temperature effects in the Northern Hemisphere (NH, >25°N). In the NH, inversions and process-based models show inter-seasonal compensation of temperature effects, inducing a global TWS dominance supported by observations. Data-driven models show weaker seasonal compensation, thereby estimating a global temperature dominance. We provide a roadmap to fully understand drivers of global NEE_IAV and discuss their implications for future carbon–climate feedbacks.

The dominant driver of variations in global land carbon sink remains unclear. Here the authors show that the seasonal compensation of temperature effects on land carbon sink in the Northern Hemisphere could induce a global water dominance.

Characterization of Regional Combustion Efficiency using ΔXCO: ΔXCO2 Observed by a Portable Fourier-Transform Spectrometer at an Urban Site in Beijing

Measurements of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide, CO₂ (XCO₂) and CO (XCO), were performed throughout 2019 at an urban site in Beijing using a compact Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) EM27/SUN. This data set is used to assess the characteristics of combustion-related CO₂ emissions of urban Beijing by analyzing the correlated daily anomalies of XCO and XCO₂ (e.g., ΔXCO and ΔXCO₂). The EM27/SUN measurements were calibrated to a 125HR-FTS at the Xianghe station by an extra EM27/SUN instrument transferred between two sites. The ratio of ΔXCO over ΔXCO₂ (ΔXCO:ΔXCO₂) is used to estimate the combustion efficiency in the Beijing region. A high correlation coefficient (0.86) between ΔXCO and ΔXCO₂ is observed. The CO:CO₂ emission ratio estimated from inventories is higher than the observed ΔXCO:ΔXCO₂ (10.46 ± 0.11 ppb ppm^-1) by 42.54%-101.15%, indicating an underestimation in combustion efficiency in the inventories. Daily ΔXCO:ΔXCO₂ are influenced by transportation governed by weather conditions, except for days in summer when the correlation is low due to the terrestrial biotic activity. By convolving the column footprint [ppm (µmol m^-2 s^-1)^-1] generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting-X-Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport models (WRF-X-STILT) with two fossil-fuel emission inventories (the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) and the Peking University (PKU) inventory), the observed enhancements of CO₂ and CO were used to evaluate the regional emissions. The CO₂ emissions appear to be underestimated by 11% and 49% for the MEIC and PKU inventories, respectively, while CO emissions were overestimated by MEIC (30%) and PKU (35%) in the Beijing area.

Strong Southern Ocean carbon uptake evident in airborne observations

[Figure: see text].

Increasing forest fire emissions despite the decline in global burned area

Satellites have detected a global decline in burned area of grassland, coincident with a small increase in burned forest area. These contrasting trends have been reported in earlier literature; however, less is known of their impacts on global fire emission trends due to the scarcity of direct observations. We use an atmospheric inversion system to show that global fire emissions have been stable or slightly decreasing despite the substantial decline in global burned area over the past two decades caused by the carbon dioxide emission increase from forest fires offsetting the decreasing emissions from grass and shrubland fires. Forest fires are larger carbon dioxide sources per unit area burned than grassland fires, with a slow or incomplete follow-up recovery—sometimes no recovery due to degradation and deforestation. With fires expanding over forest areas, the slow recovery of carbon dioxide uptake over burned forest lands weakens land sink capacity, implying positive feedback on climate change.

Unusual characteristics of the carbon cycle during the 2015-2016 El Niño

The 2015-2016 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, but its influence on the carbon balance is less clear. Using Northern Hemisphere atmospheric CO₂ observations, we found both detrended atmospheric CO₂ growth rate (CGR) and CO₂ seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of 2015-2016 were much higher than that of other El Niño events. The simultaneous high CGR and SCA were unusual, because our analysis of long-term CO₂ observations at Mauna Loa revealed a significantly negative correlation between CGR and SCA. Atmospheric inversions and terrestrial ecosystem models indicate strong northern land carbon uptake during spring but substantially reduced carbon uptake (or high emissions) during early autumn, which amplified SCA but also resulted in a small anomaly in annual carbon uptake of northern ecosystems in 2015-2016. This negative ecosystem carbon uptake anomaly in early autumn was primarily due to soil water deficits and more litter decomposition caused by enhanced spring productivity. Our study demonstrates a decoupling between seasonality and annual carbon cycle balance in northern ecosystems over 2015-2016, which is unprecedented in the past five decades of El Niño events.

Gridded fossil CO2 emissions and related O2 combustion consistent with national inventories 1959-2018

Quantification of CO2 fluxes at the Earth's surface is required to evaluate the causes and drivers of observed increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Atmospheric inversion models disaggregate observed variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration to variability in CO2 emissions and sinks. They require prior constraints fossil CO2 emissions. Here we describe GCP-GridFED (version 2019.1), a gridded fossil emissions dataset that is consistent with the national CO2 emissions reported by the Global Carbon Project (GCP). GCP-GridFEDv2019.1 provides monthly fossil CO2 emissions estimates for the period 1959-2018 at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Estimates are provided separately for oil, coal and natural gas, for mixed international bunker fuels, and for the calcination of limestone during cement production. GCP-GridFED also includes gridded estimates of O2 uptake based on oxidative ratios for oil, coal and natural gas. It will be updated annually and made available for atmospheric inversions contributing to GCP global carbon budget assessments, thus aligning the prior constraints on top-down fossil CO2 emissions with the bottom-up estimates compiled by the GCP.

Contrasting Regional Carbon Cycle Responses to Seasonal Climate Anomalies Across the East-West Divide of Temperate North America

Across temperate North America, interannual variability (IAV) in gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and their relationship with environmental drivers are poorly understood. Here, we examine IAV in GPP and NEE and their relationship to environmental drivers using two state-of-the-science flux products: NEE constrained by surface and space-based atmospheric CO2 measurements over 2010-2015 and satellite up-scaled GPP from FluxSat over 2001-2017. We show that the arid western half of temperate North America provides a larger contribution to IAV in GPP (104% of east) and NEE (127% of east) than the eastern half, in spite of smaller magnitude of annual mean GPP and NEE. This occurs because anomalies in western ecosystems are temporally coherent across the growing season leading to an amplification of GPP and NEE. In contrast, IAV in GPP and NEE in eastern ecosystems is dominated by seasonal compensation effects, associated with opposite responses to temperature anomalies in spring and summer. Terrestrial biosphere models in the MsTMIP ensemble generally capture these differences between eastern and western temperate North America, although there is considerable spread between models.

An optimized multicopter UAV sounding technique (MUST) for probing comprehensive atmospheric variables

The unique maneuverability, ease of deployment, simplicity in logistics, and relatively low costs of multicopters render them effective vehicles for low atmospheric research. While many efforts have contributed to the fundamental success of atmospheric applications of multicopters in the past, several challenges remain, including limited measurable variables, possible response-delay in real-time observations, insufficient measurement accuracy, endurance of harsh conditions and tolerance towards interferences. To address these challenges and further fortify the applicability in diversified research disciplines, this study developed an optimized multicopter UAV sounding technique (MUST). The MUST serves as an integrated platform by combining self-developed algorithms, optimized working environments for sensors/monitors, and retrofitted sampling devices to probe a comprehensive set of atmospheric variables. These variables of interest include meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, pressure, wind direction and speed), the chemical composition (speciated VOCs, CO, CO₂, CH₄, CO₂ isotopologues, O₃, PM2.5, and black carbon), and the radiation flux, as well as visible and thermal images. The aim of this study is to achieve the following objectives: 1. to easily probe a comprehensive set of near-surface atmospheric variables; 2. to improve data quality by correcting for sensors' delay in real-time observations and minimizing environmental interferences; and 3. to enhance the versatility and applicability of aerial measurements by incorporating necessary hardware and software. Field launching cases from the surface to a maximum height of 1000 m were conducted to validate the robustness of the integrated MUST platform with sufficient speed, accuracy and resolution for the target variables.

Causes of slowing-down seasonal CO2 amplitude at Mauna Loa

Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO₂ (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO₂ record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (p < .01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing-down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing-down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing-down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO₂ fertilization. This challenges the view that CO₂ fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land-atmosphere CO₂ flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs.

A Sensitivity Study of the 4.8 µm Carbon Dioxide Absorption Band in the MWIR Spectral Range

The measurements of gas concentrations in the atmosphere are recently developed thanks to the availability of gases absorbing spectral channels in space sensors and strictly depending on the instrument performances. In particular, measuring the sources of carbon dioxide is of high interest to know the distribution, both spatial and vertical, of this greenhouse gas and quantify the natural/anthropogenic sources. The present study aims to understand the sensitivity of the CO2 absorption band at 4.8 µm to possibly detect and measure the spatial distribution of emissions from point sources (i.e., degassing volcanic plumes, fires, and industrial emissions). With the aim to define the characteristics of future multispectral imaging space radiometers, the performance of the CO2 4.8 µm absorption band was investigated. Simulations of the “Top of Atmosphere” (TOA) radiance have been performed by using real input data to reproduce realistic scenarios on a volcanic high elevation point source (>2 km): actual atmospheric background of CO2 (~400 ppm) and vertical atmospheric profiles of pressure, temperature, and humidity obtained from probe balloons. The sensitivity of the channel to the CO2 concentration has been analyzed also varying surface temperatures as environmental conditions from standard to high temperature. Furthermore, response functions of operational imaging sensors in the middle wave infrared spectral region were used. The channel width values of 0.15 µm and 0.30 µm were tested in order to find changes in the gas concentration. Simulations provide results about the sensitivity necessary to appreciate carbon dioxide concentration changes considering a target variation of 10 ppm in gas column concentration. Moreover, the results show the strong dependence of at-sensor radiance on the surface temperature: radiances sharply increase, from 1 Wm−2sr−1µm−1 (in the “standard condition”) to >1200 Wm−2sr−1µm−1 (in the warmest case) when temperatures increase from 300 to 1000 K. The highest sensitivity has been obtained considering the channel width equal to 0.15 µm with noise equivalent delta temperature (NEDT) values in the range from 0.045 to 0.56 K at surface temperatures ranging from 300 to 1000 K.

Comparison of Regional Simulation of Biospheric CO2 Flux from the Updated Version of CarbonTracker Asia with FLUXCOM and Other Inversions over Asia

There are still large uncertainties in the estimates of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) with atmosphere in Asia, particularly in the boreal and eastern part of temperate Asia. To understand these uncertainties, we assessed the CarbonTracker Asia (CTA2017) estimates of the spatial and temporal distributions of NEE through a comparison with FLUXCOM and the global inversion models from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS), Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC), and Jena CarboScope in Asia, as well as examining the impact of the nesting approach on the optimized NEE flux during the 2001–2013 period. The long-term mean carbon uptake is reduced in Asia, which is −0.32 ± 0.22 PgC yr−1, whereas −0.58 ± 0.26 PgC yr−1 is shown from CT2017 (CarbonTracker global). The domain aggregated mean carbon uptake from CTA2017 is found to be lower by 23.8%, 44.8%, and 60.5% than CAMS, MACC, and Jena CarboScope, respectively. For example, both CTA2017 and CT2017 models captured the interannual variability (IAV) of the NEE flux with a different magnitude and this leads to divergent annual aggregated results. Differences in the estimated interannual variability of NEE in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may result from differences in the transport model resolutions. These inverse models’ results have a substantial difference compared to FLUXCOM, which was found to be −5.54 PgC yr−1. On the one hand, we showed that the large NEE discrepancies between both inversion models and FLUXCOM stem mostly from the tropical forests. On the other hand, CTA2017 exhibits a slightly better correlation with FLUXCOM over grass/shrub, fields/woods/savanna, and mixed forest than CT2017. The land cover inconsistency between CTA2017 and FLUXCOM is therefore one driver of the discrepancy in the NEE estimates. The diurnal averaged NEE flux between CTA2017 and FLUXCOM exhibits better agreement during the carbon uptake period than the carbon release period. Both CTA2017 and CT2017 revealed that the overall spatial patterns of the carbon sink and source are similar, but the magnitude varied with seasons and ecosystem types, which is mainly attributed to differences in the transport model resolutions. Our findings indicate that substantial inconsistencies in the inversions and FLUXCOM mainly emerge during the carbon uptake period and over tropical forests. The main problems are underrepresentation of FLUXCOM NEE estimates by limited eddy covariance flux measurements, the role of CO2 emissions from land use change not accounted for by FLUXCOM, sparseness of surface observations of CO2 concentrations used by the assimilation systems, and land cover inconsistency. This suggested that further scrutiny on the FLUXCOM and inverse estimates is most likely required. Such efforts will reduce inconsistencies across various NEE estimates over Asia, thus mitigating ecosystem-driven errors that propagate the global carbon budget. Moreover, this work also recommends further investigation on how the changes/updates made in CarbonTracker affect the interannual variability of the aggregate and spatial pattern of NEE flux in response to the ENSO effect over the region of interest.

Net carbon emissions from African biosphere dominate pan-tropical atmospheric CO2 signal

Tropical ecosystems are large carbon stores that are vulnerable to climate change. The sparseness of ground-based measurements has precluded verification of these ecosystems being a net annual source (+ve) or sink (−ve) of atmospheric carbon. We show that two independent satellite data sets of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), interpreted using independent models, are consistent with the land tropics being a net annual carbon emission of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$({\mathrm{median}}_{{\mathrm{minimum}}}^{{\mathrm{maximum}}})$$\end{document}(medianminimummaximum)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$1.03_{ - 0.20}^{ + 1.73}$$\end{document}1.03-0.20+1.73 and \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$1.60_{ + 1.39}^{ + 2.11}$$\end{document}1.60+1.39+2.11 petagrams (PgC) in 2015 and 2016, respectively. These pan-tropical estimates reflect unexpectedly large net emissions from tropical Africa of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$1.48_{ + 0.80}^{ + 1.95}$$\end{document}1.48+0.80+1.95 PgC in 2015 and \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$1.65_{ + 1.14}^{ + 2.42}$$\end{document}1.65+1.14+2.42 PgC in 2016. The largest carbon uptake is over the Congo basin, and the two loci of carbon emissions are over western Ethiopia and western tropical Africa, where there are large soil organic carbon stores and where there has been substantial land use change. These signals are present in the space-borne CO₂ record from 2009 onwards.

Tropical land ecosystems contain vast carbon reservoirs, but their influence on atmospheric CO₂ is poorly understood. Here the authors use new carbon-observing satellites to reveal a large emission source over northern tropical Africa, where there are large soil carbon stores and substantial land use changes.

Global atmospheric CO2 inverse models converging on neutral tropical land exchange, but disagreeing on fossil fuel and atmospheric growth rate

We have compared a suite of recent global CO2 atmospheric inversion results to independent airborne observations and to each other, to assess their dependence on differences in northern extratropical (NET) vertical transport and to identify some of the drivers of model spread. We evaluate posterior CO2 concentration profiles against observations from the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) aircraft campaigns over the mid-Pacific in 2009-2011. Although the models differ in inverse approaches, assimilated observations, prior fluxes, and transport models, their broad latitudinal separation of land fluxes has converged significantly since the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle Inversion Intercomparison (TransCom 3) and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) projects, with model spread reduced by 80% since TransCom 3 and 70% since RECCAP. Most modeled CO2 fields agree reasonably well with the HIPPO observations, specifically for the annual mean vertical gradients in the Northern Hemisphere. Northern Hemisphere vertical mixing no longer appears to be a dominant driver of northern versus tropical (T) annual flux differences. Our newer suite of models still gives northern extratropical land uptake that is modest relative to previous estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013) and near-neutral tropical land uptake for 2009-2011. Given estimates of emissions from deforestation, this implies a continued uptake in intact tropical forests that is strong relative to historical estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013). The results from these models for other time periods (2004-2014, 2001-2004, 1992-1996) and reevaluation of the TransCom 3 Level 2 and RECCAP results confirm that tropical land carbon fluxes including deforestation have been near neutral for several decades. However, models still have large disagreements on ocean-land partitioning. The fossil fuel (FF) and the atmospheric growth rate terms have been thought to be the best-known terms in the global carbon budget, but we show that they currently limit our ability to assess regional-scale terrestrial fluxes and ocean-land partitioning from the model ensemble.

Emerging negative impact of warming on summer carbon uptake in northern ecosystems

Most studies of the northern hemisphere carbon cycle based on atmospheric CO₂ concentration have focused on spring and autumn, but the climate change impact on summer carbon cycle remains unclear. Here we used atmospheric CO₂ record from Point Barrow (Alaska) to show that summer CO₂ drawdown between July and August, a proxy of summer carbon uptake, is significantly negatively correlated with terrestrial temperature north of 50°N interannually during 1979-2012. However, a refined analysis at the decadal scale reveals strong differences between the earlier (1979-1995) and later (1996-2012) periods, with the significant negative correlation only in the later period. This emerging negative temperature response is due to the disappearance of the positive temperature response of summer vegetation activities that prevailed in the earlier period. Our finding, together with the reported weakening temperature control on spring carbon uptake, suggests a diminished positive effect of warming on high-latitude carbon uptake.

Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches

Evaluating the response of the land carbon sink to the anomalies in temperature and drought imposed by El Niño events provides insights into the present-day carbon cycle and its climate-driven variability. It is also a necessary step to build confidence in terrestrial ecosystems models' response to the warming and drying stresses expected in the future over many continents, and particularly in the tropics. Here we present an in-depth analysis of the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the 2015/2016 El Niño that imposed extreme warming and dry conditions in the tropics and other sensitive regions. First, we provide a synthesis of the spatio-temporal evolution of anomalies in net land–atmosphere CO₂ fluxes estimated by two in situ measurements based on atmospheric inversions and 16 land-surface models (LSMs) from TRENDYv6. Simulated changes in ecosystem productivity, decomposition rates and fire emissions are also investigated. Inversions and LSMs generally agree on the decrease and subsequent recovery of the land sink in response to the onset, peak and demise of El Niño conditions and point to the decreased strength of the land carbon sink: by 0.4–0.7 PgC yr⁻¹ (inversions) and by 1.0 PgC yr⁻¹ (LSMs) during 2015/2016. LSM simulations indicate that a decrease in productivity, rather than increase in respiration, dominated the net biome productivity anomalies in response to ENSO throughout the tropics, mainly associated with prolonged drought conditions.

This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

Strong constraint on modelled global carbon uptake using solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence data

Accurate terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of gross carbon uptake (gross primary productivity - GPP) are essential for reliable future terrestrial carbon sink projections. However, uncertainties in TBM GPP estimates remain. Newly-available satellite-derived sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data offer a promising direction for addressing this issue by constraining regional-to-global scale modelled GPP. Here, we use monthly 0.5° GOME-2 SIF data from 2007 to 2011 to optimise GPP parameters of the ORCHIDEE TBM. The optimisation reduces GPP magnitude across all vegetation types except C4 plants. Global mean annual GPP therefore decreases from 194 ± 57 PgCyr^-1 to 166 ± 10 PgCyr^-1, bringing the model more in line with an up-scaled flux tower estimate of 133 PgCyr^-1. Strongest reductions in GPP are seen in boreal forests: the result is a shift in global GPP distribution, with a ~50% increase in the tropical to boreal productivity ratio. The optimisation resulted in a greater reduction in GPP than similar ORCHIDEE parameter optimisation studies using satellite-derived NDVI from MODIS and eddy covariance measurements of net CO₂ fluxes from the FLUXNET network. Our study shows that SIF data will be instrumental in constraining TBM GPP estimates, with a consequent improvement in global carbon cycle projections.

CHARM-F-a new airborne integrated-path differential-absorption lidar for carbon dioxide and methane observations: measurement performance and quantification of strong point source emissions

The integrated-path differential-absorption lidar CHARM-F (CO₂ and CH₄ Remote Monitoring-Flugzeug) was developed for the simultaneous measurement of the greenhouse gases CO₂ and CH₄ onboard the German research aircraft HALO (High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft). The purpose is to derive the weighted, column-averaged dry-air mixing ratios of the two gases with high precision and accuracy between aircraft and ground or cloud tops. This paper presents the first measurements, performed in the spring of 2015, and shows performance analyses as well as the methodology for the quantification of strong point sources applied on example cases. A measurement precision of below 0.5% for 20 km averages was found. However, individual measurements still show deviations of the absolute mixing ratios compared to corresponding data from in situ profiles. The detailed analysis of the methane point source emission rate yields plausible results (26±3  m³/min or 9.2±1.15  kt CH₄ yr^-1), which is in good agreement with reported numbers. In terms of CO₂, a power plant emission could be identified and analyzed.

Enhanced methane emissions from tropical wetlands during the 2011 La Niña

Year-to-year variations in the atmospheric methane (CH₄) growth rate show significant correlation with climatic drivers. The second half of 2010 and the first half of 2011 experienced the strongest La Niña since the early 1980s, when global surface networks started monitoring atmospheric CH₄ mole fractions. We use these surface measurements, retrievals of column-averaged CH₄ mole fractions from GOSAT, new wetland inundation estimates, and atmospheric δ¹³C-CH₄ measurements to estimate the impact of this strong La Niña on the global atmospheric CH₄ budget. By performing atmospheric inversions, we find evidence of an increase in tropical CH₄ emissions of ∼6–9 TgCH₄ yr⁻¹ during this event. Stable isotope data suggest that biogenic sources are the cause of this emission increase. We find a simultaneous expansion of wetland area, driven by the excess precipitation over the Tropical continents during the La Niña. Two process-based wetland models predict increases in wetland area consistent with observationally-constrained values, but substantially smaller per-area CH₄ emissions, highlighting the need for improvements in such models. Overall, tropical wetland emissions during the strong La Niña were at least by 5% larger than the long-term mean.

Top-down assessment of the Asian carbon budget since the mid 1990s

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the principal driver of anthropogenic climate change. Asia is an important region for the global carbon budget, with 4 of the world's 10 largest national emitters of CO₂. Using an ensemble of seven atmospheric inverse systems, we estimated land biosphere fluxes (natural, land-use change and fires) based on atmospheric observations of CO₂ concentration. The Asian land biosphere was a net sink of −0.46 (−0.70–0.24) PgC per year (median and range) for 1996–2012 and was mostly located in East Asia, while in South and Southeast Asia the land biosphere was close to carbon neutral. In East Asia, the annual CO₂ sink increased between 1996–2001 and 2008–2012 by 0.56 (0.30–0.81) PgC, accounting for ∼35% of the increase in the global land biosphere sink. Uncertainty in the fossil fuel emissions contributes significantly (32%) to the uncertainty in land biosphere sink change.

Land biosphere uptake of carbon is important in mitigating the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO₂ and its climate forcing. Here, the authors show that land biosphere uptake of carbon in Asia has increased substantially since the mid 1990s, likely owing to reforestation and regional climate change.

Development of a multicopter-carried whole air sampling apparatus and its applications in environmental studies

To advance the capabilities of probing chemical composition aloft, we designed a lightweight remote-controlled whole air sampling component (WASC) and integrated it into a multicopter drone with agile maneuverability to perform aerial whole air sampling. A field mission hovering over an exhaust shaft of a roadway tunnel to collect air samples was performed to demonstrate the applicability of the multicopter-carried WASC apparatus. Ten aerial air samples surrounding the shaft vent were collected by the multicopter-carried WASC. Additional five samples were collected manually inside the shaft for comparison. These samples were then analyzed in the laboratory for the chemical composition of 109 volatile organic compounds (VOCs), CH4, CO, CO2, or CO2 isotopologues. Most of the VOCs in the upwind samples (the least affected by shaft exhaust) were low in concentrations (5.9 ppbv for total 109 VOCs), posting a strong contrast to those in the shaft exhaust (235.8 ppbv for total 109 VOCs). By comparing the aerial samples with the in-shaft samples for chemical compositions, the influence of the shaft exhaust on the surrounding natural air was estimated. Through the aerial measurements, three major advantages of the multicopter-carried WASC were demonstrated: 1. The highly maneuverable multicopter-carried WASC can be readily deployed for three-dimensional environmental studies at a local scale (0-1.5 km); 2. Aerial sampling with superior sample integrity and preservation conditions can now be performed with ease; and 3. Data with spatial resolution for a large array of gaseous species with high precision can be easily obtained.

Quantifying sources and sinks of trace gases using space-borne measurements: current and future science

We have been observing the Earth's upper atmosphere from space for several decades, but only over the past decade has the necessary technology begun to match our desire to observe surface air pollutants and climate-relevant trace gases in the lower troposphere, where we live and breathe. A new generation of Earth-observing satellites, capable of probing the lower troposphere, are already orbiting hundreds of kilometres above the Earth's surface with several more ready for launch or in the planning stages. Consequently, this is one of the most exciting times for the Earth system scientists who study the countless current-day physical, chemical and biological interactions between the Earth's land, ocean and atmosphere. First, I briefly review the theory behind measuring the atmosphere from space, and how these data can be used to infer surface sources and sinks of trace gases. I then present some of the science highlights associated with these data and how they can be used to improve fundamental understanding of the Earth's climate system. I conclude the paper by discussing the future role of satellite measurements of tropospheric trace gases in mitigating surface air pollution and carbon trading.