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Chua PLC, Tobias A, Madaniyazi L, Ng CFS, Phung VLH, Fu SH, Rodriguez PS, Brown P, Coelho MDSZS, Saldiva PHN, Scovronick N, Deshpande A, Salazar MAS, Dorotan MMC, Tantrakarnapa K, Kliengchuay W, Abrutzky R, Carrasco-Escobar G, Roye D, Hales S, Hashizume M. Association between precipitation and mortality due to diarrheal diseases by climate zone: A multi-country modeling study. Environ Epidemiol 2024; 8:e320. [PMID: 39027089 PMCID: PMC11257672 DOI: 10.1097/ee9.0000000000000320] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2024] [Accepted: 06/12/2024] [Indexed: 07/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Precipitation could affect the transmission of diarrheal diseases. The diverse precipitation patterns across different climates might influence the degree of diarrheal risk from precipitation. This study determined the associations between precipitation and diarrheal mortality in tropical, temperate, and arid climate regions. Methods Daily counts of diarrheal mortality and 28-day cumulative precipitation from 1997 to 2019 were analyzed across 29 locations in eight middle-income countries (Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, India, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, and Thailand). A two-stage approach was employed: the first stage is conditional Poisson regression models for each location, and the second stage is meta-analysis for pooling location-specific coefficients by climate zone. Results In tropical climates, higher precipitation increases the risk of diarrheal mortality. Under extremely wet conditions (95th percentile of 28-day cumulative precipitation), diarrheal mortality increased by 17.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.4%, 25.7%) compared with minimum-risk precipitation. For temperate and arid climates, diarrheal mortality increases in both dry and wet conditions. In extremely dry conditions (fifth percentile of 28-day cumulative precipitation), diarrheal mortality risk increases by 3.8% (95% CI = 1.2%, 6.5%) for temperate and 5.5% (95% CI = 1.0%, 10.2%) for arid climates. Similarly, under extremely wet conditions, diarrheal mortality risk increases by 2.5% (95% CI = -0.1%, 5.1%) for temperate and 4.1% (95% CI = 1.1%, 7.3%) for arid climates. Conclusions Associations between precipitation and diarrheal mortality exhibit variations across different climate zones. It is crucial to consider climate-specific variations when generating global projections of future precipitation-related diarrheal mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul L. C. Chua
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Lina Madaniyazi
- Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Chris Fook Sheng Ng
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Vera Ling Hui Phung
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Sze Hang Fu
- Centre for Global Health Research, St. Michael’s Hospital and University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Peter S. Rodriguez
- Centre for Global Health Research, St. Michael’s Hospital and University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Patrick Brown
- Centre for Global Health Research, St. Michael’s Hospital and University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | | | - Noah Scovronick
- Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Aniruddha Deshpande
- Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
| | | | | | - Kraichat Tantrakarnapa
- Department of Social and Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Ratchathewi, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Wissanupong Kliengchuay
- Department of Social and Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Ratchathewi, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Rosana Abrutzky
- Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, California
- Health Innovation Laboratory, Institute of Tropical Medicine “Alexander von Humboldt,” Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | | | - Simon Hales
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Newtown, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan
- Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
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Sartori AL, de Oliveira LR, Pessatto ME. Spatiotemporal analysis of diarrhea-related hospitalizations of children in Brazil's Midwest region from 2011 to 2020. REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE EPIDEMIOLOGIA 2024; 27:e240035. [PMID: 38922201 PMCID: PMC11207105 DOI: 10.1590/1980-549720240035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2023] [Revised: 02/20/2024] [Accepted: 04/03/2024] [Indexed: 06/27/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To examine spatiotemporal variability and identify clustering patterns of hospitalization rates for diarrhea in children younger than five years in Mato Grosso, Brazil, from 2011 to 2020. METHODS An ecological study was conducted using hospitalization records associated with diarrhea from the Brazilian Hospital Information System/Unified Health System. The relative risk of hospitalization for diarrhea in each municipality was calculated using SaTScan software considering a statistical significance level of 5% and 999 Monte Carlo replications. RESULTS A total of 13,315 diarrhea-associated hospitalizations for 5-year-old children were recorded. From 2011 to 2020, the annual rates for hospitalizations related to diarrhea decreased from 8.50 to 3.45/1,000 live births among children younger than one year and from 4.99 to 1.57 for children aged 1-4 years. Clusters of municipalities with high relative risk for hospitalizations due to diarrhea, statistically significant, predominated in the North, Northeast, and Southwest health administrative macro-regions of Mato Grosso for both age groups until 2016. From 2016 to 2020, clusters of the lowest relative risk were identified in the North and Center South health administrative macro-regions for children younger than five years. CONCLUSION Results showed that hospitalization rates for diarrhea in children younger than five years reduced with the presence of low-risk clusters in Mato Grosso in the final years of the study. Public health surveillance should incorporate spatial analysis to investigate the diarrhea-related morbidity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Lucia Sartori
- Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso, Institute of Health Sciences – Sinop (MT), Brazil
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Grembi JA, Nguyen AT, Riviere M, Heitmann GB, Patil A, Athni TS, Djajadi S, Ercumen A, Lin A, Crider Y, Mertens A, Karim MA, Islam MO, Miah R, Famida SL, Hossen MS, Mutsuddi P, Ali S, Rahman MZ, Hussain Z, Shoab AK, Haque R, Rahman M, Unicomb L, Luby SP, Arnold BF, Bennett A, Benjamin-Chung J. Influence of hydrometeorological risk factors on child diarrhea and enteropathogens in rural Bangladesh. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2024; 18:e0012157. [PMID: 38739632 PMCID: PMC11115220 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0012157] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2023] [Revised: 05/23/2024] [Accepted: 04/18/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND A number of studies have detected relationships between weather and diarrhea. Few have investigated associations with specific enteric pathogens. Understanding pathogen-specific relationships with weather is crucial to inform public health in low-resource settings that are especially vulnerable to climate change. OBJECTIVES Our objectives were to identify weather and environmental risk factors associated with diarrhea and enteropathogen prevalence in young children in rural Bangladesh, a population with high diarrheal disease burden and vulnerability to weather shifts under climate change. METHODS We matched temperature, precipitation, surface water, and humidity data to observational longitudinal data from a cluster-randomized trial that measured diarrhea and enteropathogen prevalence in children 6 months-5.5 years from 2012-2016. We fit generalized additive mixed models with cubic regression splines and restricted maximum likelihood estimation for smoothing parameters. RESULTS Comparing weeks with 30°C versus 15°C average temperature, prevalence was 3.5% higher for diarrhea, 7.3% higher for Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), 17.3% higher for enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC), and 8.0% higher for Cryptosporidium. Above-median weekly precipitation (median: 13mm; range: 0-396mm) was associated with 29% higher diarrhea (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.29, 95% CI 1.07, 1.55); higher Cryptosporidium, ETEC, STEC, Shigella, Campylobacter, Aeromonas, and adenovirus 40/41; and lower Giardia, sapovirus, and norovirus prevalence. Other associations were weak or null. DISCUSSION Higher temperatures and precipitation were associated with higher prevalence of diarrhea and multiple enteropathogens; higher precipitation was associated with lower prevalence of some enteric viruses. Our findings emphasize the heterogeneity of the relationships between hydrometeorological variables and specific enteropathogens, which can be masked when looking at composite measures like all-cause diarrhea. Our results suggest that preventive interventions targeted to reduce enteropathogens just before and during the rainy season may more effectively reduce child diarrhea and enteric pathogen carriage in rural Bangladesh and in settings with similar meteorological characteristics, infrastructure, and enteropathogen transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica A. Grembi
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Anna T. Nguyen
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Marie Riviere
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Gabriella Barratt Heitmann
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Arusha Patil
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Tejas S. Athni
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Stephanie Djajadi
- Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - Ayse Ercumen
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Audrie Lin
- Department of Microbiology and Environmental Toxicology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Yoshika Crider
- King Center on Global Development, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Andrew Mertens
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Md Abdul Karim
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Md Ohedul Islam
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Rana Miah
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Syeda L. Famida
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Md Saheen Hossen
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Palash Mutsuddi
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Shahjahan Ali
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Md Ziaur Rahman
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Zahir Hussain
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Abul K. Shoab
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Rashidul Haque
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Mahbubur Rahman
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Leanne Unicomb
- Infectious Disease Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Stephen P. Luby
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Benjamin F. Arnold
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation and Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America
| | - Adam Bennett
- Malaria Elimination Initiative, Global Health Group, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America
- PATH, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Jade Benjamin-Chung
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
- Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, San Francisco, California, United States of America
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Nguyen AT, Grembi JA, Riviere M, Barratt Heitmann G, Hutson WD, Athni TS, Patil A, Ercumen A, Lin A, Crider Y, Mertens A, Unicomb L, Rahman M, Luby SP, Arnold BF, Benjamin-Chung J. Influence of Temperature and Precipitation on the Effectiveness of Water, Sanitation, and Handwashing Interventions against Childhood Diarrheal Disease in Rural Bangladesh: A Reanalysis of the WASH Benefits Bangladesh Trial. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2024; 132:47006. [PMID: 38602833 PMCID: PMC11008709 DOI: 10.1289/ehp13807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2023] [Revised: 03/08/2024] [Accepted: 03/13/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Diarrheal disease is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality globally. Household water, sanitation, and handwashing (WASH) interventions can reduce exposure to diarrhea-causing pathogens, but meteorological factors may impact their effectiveness. Information about effect heterogeneity under different weather conditions is critical to refining these targeted interventions. OBJECTIVES We aimed to determine whether temperature and precipitation modified the effect of low-cost, point-of-use WASH interventions on child diarrhea. METHODS We analyzed data from a trial in rural Bangladesh that compared child diarrhea prevalence between clusters (N = 720 ) that were randomized to different WASH interventions between 2012 and 2016 (NCT01590095). We matched temperature and precipitation measurements to diarrhea outcomes (N = 12,440 measurements, 6,921 children) by geographic coordinates and date. We estimated prevalence ratios (PRs) using generative additive models and targeted maximum likelihood estimation to assess the effectiveness of each WASH intervention under different weather conditions. RESULTS Generally, WASH interventions most effectively prevented diarrhea during monsoon season, particularly following weeks with heavy rain or high temperatures. The PR for diarrhea in the WASH interventions group compared with the control group was 0.49 (95% CI: 0.35, 0.68) after 1 d of heavy rainfall, with a less-protective effect [PR = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.60, 1.25)] when there were no days with heavy rainfall. Similarly, the PR for diarrhea in the WASH intervention group compared with the control group was 0.60 (95% CI: 0.48, 0.75) following above-median temperatures vs. 0.91 (95% CI: 0.61, 1.35) following below-median temperatures. The influence of precipitation and temperature varied by intervention type; for precipitation, the largest differences in effectiveness were for the sanitation and combined WASH interventions. DISCUSSION WASH intervention effectiveness was strongly influenced by precipitation and temperature, and nearly all protective effects were observed during the rainy season. Future implementation of these interventions should consider local environmental conditions to maximize effectiveness, including targeted efforts to maintain latrines and promote community adoption ahead of monsoon seasons. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13807.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna T. Nguyen
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Jessica A. Grembi
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Marie Riviere
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | | | - William D. Hutson
- Brown School, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri, USA
| | - Tejas S. Athni
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Arusha Patil
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Ayse Ercumen
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | - Audrie Lin
- Department of Microbiology and Environmental Toxicology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - Yoshika Crider
- King Center on Global Development, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Andrew Mertens
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Leanne Unicomb
- Environmental Health and WASH, Health System and Population Studies Division, ICDDR,B, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Mahbubur Rahman
- Environmental Health and WASH, Health System and Population Studies Division, ICDDR,B, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Stephen P. Luby
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Benjamin F. Arnold
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Jade Benjamin-Chung
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
- Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, San Francisco, California, USA
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Flynn TG, Olortegui MP, Kosek MN. Viral gastroenteritis. Lancet 2024; 403:862-876. [PMID: 38340741 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)02037-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2023] [Revised: 08/17/2023] [Accepted: 09/18/2023] [Indexed: 02/12/2024]
Abstract
Since the discovery of norovirus in 1972 as a cause of what was contemporarily known as acute infectious non-bacterial gastroenteritis, scientific understanding of the viral gastroenteritides has continued to evolve. It is now recognised that a small number of viruses are the predominant cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide, in both high-income and low-income settings. Although treatment is still largely restricted to the replacement of fluid and electrolytes, improved diagnostics have allowed attribution of illness, enabling both targeted treatment of individual patients and prioritisation of interventions for populations worldwide. Questions remain regarding specific genetic and immunological factors underlying host susceptibility, and the optimal clinical management of patients who are susceptible to severe or prolonged manifestations of disease. Meanwhile, the worldwide implementation of rotavirus vaccines has led to substantial reductions in morbidity and mortality, and spurred interest in vaccine development to diminish the impact of the most prevalent viruses that are implicated in this syndrome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas G Flynn
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | | | - Margaret N Kosek
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
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Colston JM, Fang B, Houpt E, Chernyavskiy P, Swarup S, Gardner LM, Nong MK, Badr HS, Zaitchik BF, Lakshmi V, Kosek MN. The Planetary Child Health & Enterics Observatory (Plan-EO): A protocol for an interdisciplinary research initiative and web-based dashboard for mapping enteric infectious diseases and their risk factors and interventions in LMICs. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0297775. [PMID: 38412156 PMCID: PMC10898779 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0297775] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2023] [Accepted: 01/12/2024] [Indexed: 02/29/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Diarrhea remains a leading cause of childhood illness throughout the world that is increasing due to climate change and is caused by various species of ecologically sensitive pathogens. The emerging Planetary Health movement emphasizes the interdependence of human health with natural systems, and much of its focus has been on infectious diseases and their interactions with environmental and human processes. Meanwhile, the era of big data has engendered a public appetite for interactive web-based dashboards for infectious diseases. However, enteric infectious diseases have been largely overlooked by these developments. METHODS The Planetary Child Health & Enterics Observatory (Plan-EO) is a new initiative that builds on existing partnerships between epidemiologists, climatologists, bioinformaticians, and hydrologists as well as investigators in numerous low- and middle-income countries. Its objective is to provide the research and stakeholder community with an evidence base for the geographical targeting of enteropathogen-specific child health interventions such as novel vaccines. The initiative will produce, curate, and disseminate spatial data products relating to the distribution of enteric pathogens and their environmental and sociodemographic determinants. DISCUSSION As climate change accelerates there is an urgent need for etiology-specific estimates of diarrheal disease burden at high spatiotemporal resolution. Plan-EO aims to address key challenges and knowledge gaps by making and disseminating rigorously obtained, generalizable disease burden estimates. Pre-processed environmental and EO-derived spatial data products will be housed, continually updated, and made publicly available for download to the research and stakeholder communities. These can then be used as inputs to identify and target priority populations living in transmission hotspots and for decision-making, scenario-planning, and disease burden projection. STUDY REGISTRATION PROSPERO protocol #CRD42023384709.
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Affiliation(s)
- Josh M. Colston
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Bin Fang
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Eric Houpt
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Pavel Chernyavskiy
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Samarth Swarup
- Biocomplexity Institute, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Lauren M. Gardner
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Malena K. Nong
- University of Virginia College of Arts & Sciences, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Hamada S. Badr
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Benjamin F. Zaitchik
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Venkataraman Lakshmi
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Margaret N. Kosek
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America
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Colston JM. Elucidating the Impacts of Climate on Dengue Transmission Through Mathematical Models: New Evidence From a Recent Outbreak on the Island of Réunion. J Infect Dis 2024; 229:1-3. [PMID: 37988607 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiad473] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Josh M Colston
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, 345 Crispell Drive, Building MR-6, Charlottesville, Virginia
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8
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Colston JM, Chernyavskiy P, Gardner L, Nong M, Fang B, Houpt E, Swarup S, Badr H, Zaitchik B, Lakshmi V, Kosek M. The Planetary Child Health & Enterics Observatory (Plan-EO): a protocol for an interdisciplinary research initiative and web-based dashboard for mapping enteric infectious diseases and their risk factors and interventions in LMICs. RESEARCH SQUARE 2024:rs.3.rs-2640564. [PMID: 36993232 PMCID: PMC10055683 DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2640564/v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/26/2023]
Abstract
Background Diarrhea remains a leading cause of childhood illness throughout the world that is increasing due to climate change and is caused by various species of ecologically sensitive pathogens. The emerging Planetary Health movement emphasizes the interdependence of human health with natural systems, and much of its focus has been on infectious diseases and their interactions with environmental and human processes. Meanwhile, the era of big data has engendered a public appetite for interactive web-based dashboards for infectious diseases. However, enteric infectious diseases have been largely overlooked by these developments. Methods The Planetary Child Health and Enterics Observatory (Plan-EO) is a new initiative that builds on existing partnerships between epidemiologists, climatologists, bioinformaticians, and hydrologists as well as investigators in numerous low- and middle-income countries. Its objective is to provide the research and stakeholder community with an evidence base for the geographical targeting of enteropathogen-specific child health interventions such as novel vaccines. The initiative will produce, curate, and disseminate spatial data products relating to the distribution of enteric pathogens and their environmental and sociodemographic determinants. Discussion As climate change accelerates there is an urgent need for etiology-specific estimates of diarrheal disease burden at high spatiotemporal resolution. Plan-EO aims to address key challenges and knowledge gaps by making rigorously obtained, generalizable disease burden estimates freely available and accessible to the research and stakeholder communities. Pre-processed environmental and EO-derived spatial data products will be housed, continually updated, and made publicly available to the research and stakeholder communities both within the webpage itself and for download. These inputs can then be used to identify and target priority populations living in transmission hotspots and for decision-making, scenario-planning, and disease burden projection. Study registration PROSPERO protocol #CRD42023384709.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Malena Nong
- University of Virginia College of Arts & Sciences
| | | | - Eric Houpt
- University of Virginia School of Medicine
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9
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Colston JM, Chernyavskiy P, Gardner L, Nong M, Fang B, Houpt E, Swarup S, Badr H, Zaitchik B, Lakshmi V, Kosek M. The Planetary Child Health & Enterics Observatory (Plan-EO): a protocol for an interdisciplinary research initiative and web-based dashboard for mapping enteric infectious diseases and their risk factors and interventions in LMICs. RESEARCH SQUARE 2024:rs.3.rs-2640564. [PMID: 36993232 PMCID: PMC10055683 DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2640564/v3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/12/2024]
Abstract
Background Diarrhea remains a leading cause of childhood illness throughout the world that is increasing due to climate change and is caused by various species of ecologically sensitive pathogens. The emerging Planetary Health movement emphasizes the interdependence of human health with natural systems, and much of its focus has been on infectious diseases and their interactions with environmental and human processes. Meanwhile, the era of big data has engendered a public appetite for interactive web-based dashboards for infectious diseases. However, enteric infectious diseases have been largely overlooked by these developments. Methods The Planetary Child Health and Enterics Observatory (Plan-EO) is a new initiative that builds on existing partnerships between epidemiologists, climatologists, bioinformaticians, and hydrologists as well as investigators in numerous low- and middle-income countries. Its objective is to provide the research and stakeholder community with an evidence base for the geographical targeting of enteropathogen-specific child health interventions such as novel vaccines. The initiative will produce, curate, and disseminate spatial data products relating to the distribution of enteric pathogens and their environmental and sociodemographic determinants. Discussion As climate change accelerates there is an urgent need for etiology-specific estimates of diarrheal disease burden at high spatiotemporal resolution. Plan-EO aims to address key challenges and knowledge gaps by making rigorously obtained, generalizable disease burden estimates freely available and accessible to the research and stakeholder communities. Pre-processed environmental and EO-derived spatial data products will be housed, continually updated, and made publicly available to the research and stakeholder communities both within the webpage itself and for download. These inputs can then be used to identify and target priority populations living in transmission hotspots and for decision-making, scenario-planning, and disease burden projection. Study registration PROSPERO protocol #CRD42023384709.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Malena Nong
- University of Virginia College of Arts & Sciences
| | | | - Eric Houpt
- University of Virginia School of Medicine
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Lo Iacono G, Cook AJC, Derks G, Fleming LE, French N, Gillingham EL, Gonzalez Villeta LC, Heaviside C, La Ragione RM, Leonardi G, Sarran CE, Vardoulakis S, Senyah F, van Vliet AHM, Nichols G. A mathematical, classical stratification modeling approach to disentangling the impact of weather on infectious diseases: A case study using spatio-temporally disaggregated Campylobacter surveillance data for England and Wales. PLoS Comput Biol 2024; 20:e1011714. [PMID: 38236828 PMCID: PMC10796013 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011714] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2023] [Accepted: 11/27/2023] [Indexed: 01/22/2024] Open
Abstract
Disentangling the impact of the weather on transmission of infectious diseases is crucial for health protection, preparedness and prevention. Because weather factors are co-incidental and partly correlated, we have used geography to separate out the impact of individual weather parameters on other seasonal variables using campylobacteriosis as a case study. Campylobacter infections are found worldwide and are the most common bacterial food-borne disease in developed countries, where they exhibit consistent but country specific seasonality. We developed a novel conditional incidence method, based on classical stratification, exploiting the long term, high-resolution, linkage of approximately one-million campylobacteriosis cases over 20 years in England and Wales with local meteorological datasets from diagnostic laboratory locations. The predicted incidence of campylobacteriosis increased by 1 case per million people for every 5° (Celsius) increase in temperature within the range of 8°-15°. Limited association was observed outside that range. There were strong associations with day-length. Cases tended to increase with relative humidity in the region of 75-80%, while the associations with rainfall and wind-speed were weaker. The approach is able to examine multiple factors and model how complex trends arise, e.g. the consistent steep increase in campylobacteriosis in England and Wales in May-June and its spatial variability. This transparent and straightforward approach leads to accurate predictions without relying on regression models and/or postulating specific parameterisations. A key output of the analysis is a thoroughly phenomenological description of the incidence of the disease conditional on specific local weather factors. The study can be crucially important to infer the elusive mechanism of transmission of campylobacteriosis; for instance, by simulating the conditional incidence for a postulated mechanism and compare it with the phenomenological patterns as benchmark. The findings challenge the assumption, commonly made in statistical models, that the transformed mean rate of infection for diseases like campylobacteriosis is a mere additive and combination of the environmental variables.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giovanni Lo Iacono
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
- Institute for Sustainability, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
- People-Centred Artificial Intelligence Institute, University of Surrey, Guilford, United Kingdom
- Centre for Mathematical and Computational Biology, University of Surrey, Guilford, United Kingdom
| | - Alasdair J. C. Cook
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Gianne Derks
- Centre for Mathematical and Computational Biology, University of Surrey, Guilford, United Kingdom
- Mathematical Institute, Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Lora E. Fleming
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Truro, Cornwall, United Kingdom
| | - Nigel French
- New Zealand Food Safety Science & Research Centre, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
| | | | - Laura C. Gonzalez Villeta
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Roberto M. La Ragione
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
- School of Biosciences, University of Surrey, Guilford, United Kingdom
| | - Giovanni Leonardi
- UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, United Kingdom
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- Healthy Environments And Lives (HEAL) National Research Network, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Francis Senyah
- UK Health Security Agency, Porton Down, United Kingdom
- Médicines Sans Frontièrs, London, United Kingdom
| | - Arnoud H. M. van Vliet
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
| | - Gordon Nichols
- Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Truro, Cornwall, United Kingdom
- UK Health Security Agency, Chilton, United Kingdom
- University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
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11
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Kivimäki M, Batty GD, Pentti J, Suomi J, Nyberg ST, Merikanto J, Nordling K, Ervasti J, Suominen SB, Partanen AI, Stenholm S, Käyhkö J, Vahtera J. Climate Change, Summer Temperature, and Heat-Related Mortality in Finland: Multicohort Study with Projections for a Sustainable vs. Fossil-Fueled Future to 2050. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2023; 131:127020. [PMID: 38150315 PMCID: PMC10752417 DOI: 10.1289/ehp12080] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2022] [Revised: 11/16/2023] [Accepted: 11/17/2023] [Indexed: 12/29/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change scenarios illustrate various pathways in terms of global warming ranging from "sustainable development" (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1-1.9), the best-case scenario, to 'fossil-fueled development' (SSP5-8.5), the worst-case scenario. OBJECTIVES We examined the extent to which increase in daily average urban summer temperature is associated with future cause-specific mortality and projected heat-related mortality burden for the current warming trend and these two scenarios. METHODS We did an observational cohort study of 363,754 participants living in six cities in Finland. Using residential addresses, participants were linked to daily temperature records and electronic death records from national registries during summers (1 May to 30 September) 2000 to 2018. For each day of observation, heat index (average daily air temperature weighted by humidity) for the preceding 7 d was calculated for participants' residential area using a geographic grid at a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km . We examined associations of the summer heat index with risk of death by cause for all participants adjusting for a wide range of individual-level covariates and in subsidiary analyses using case-crossover design, computed the related period population attributable fraction (PAF), and projected change in PAF from summers 2000-2018 compared with those in 2030-2050. RESULTS During a cohort total exposure period of 582,111,979 summer days (3,880,746 person-summers), we recorded 4,094 deaths, including 949 from cardiovascular disease. The multivariable-adjusted rate ratio (RR) for high (≥ 21 ° C ) vs. reference (14 - 15 ° C ) heat index was 1.70 (95% CI: 1.28, 2.27) for cardiovascular mortality, but it did not reach statistical significance for noncardiovascular deaths, RR = 1.14 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.36), a finding replicated in case-crossover analysis. According to projections for 2030-2050, PAF of summertime cardiovascular mortality attributable to high heat will be 4.4% (1.8%-7.3%) under the sustainable development scenario, but 7.6% (3.2%-12.3%) under the fossil-fueled development scenario. In the six cities, the estimated annual number of summertime heat-related cardiovascular deaths under the two scenarios will be 174 and 298 for a total population of 1,759,468 people. DISCUSSION The increase in average urban summer temperature will raise heat-related cardiovascular mortality burden. The estimated magnitude of this burden is > 1.5 times greater if future climate change is driven by fossil fuels rather than sustainable development. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12080.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mika Kivimäki
- University College London (UCL) Brain Sciences, UCL, London, UK
- Clinicum, Faculty of Medicine, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Helsinki, Finland
| | - G. David Batty
- University College London (UCL) Brain Sciences, UCL, London, UK
| | - Jaana Pentti
- Clinicum, Faculty of Medicine, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Helsinki, Finland
- Department of Public Health, University of Turku (UTU), Turku, Finland
- Centre for Population Health Research, UTU, Turku, Finland
| | - Juuso Suomi
- Department of Geography and Geology, UTU, Turku, Finland
| | - Solja T. Nyberg
- Clinicum, Faculty of Medicine, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Kalle Nordling
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
- Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
| | - Jenni Ervasti
- Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Sakari B. Suominen
- Department of Public Health, University of Turku (UTU), Turku, Finland
- Turku University Hospital, Turku, Finland
- School of Health Science, University of Skövde, Skövde, Sweden
| | | | - Sari Stenholm
- Department of Public Health, University of Turku (UTU), Turku, Finland
- Centre for Population Health Research, UTU, Turku, Finland
| | - Jukka Käyhkö
- Department of Geography and Geology, UTU, Turku, Finland
| | - Jussi Vahtera
- Department of Public Health, University of Turku (UTU), Turku, Finland
- Centre for Population Health Research, UTU, Turku, Finland
- Turku University Hospital, Turku, Finland
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12
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Shaukat A, Shah B, Fritz CD, Omary MB. Gastroenterology climate action opportunities via education, empowerment of trainees and research. Gut 2023; 72:2219-2221. [PMID: 37977582 DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2023-331093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2023] [Accepted: 09/13/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Aasma Shaukat
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, New York, USA
| | - Brijen Shah
- Henry D. Janowitz Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, USA
| | - Cassandra Dl Fritz
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, Saint Louis, Missouri, USA
| | - M Bishr Omary
- Department of Medicine, Rutgers Biomedical and Health Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey, USA
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13
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Khalil I, Anderson JD, Bagamian KH, Baqar S, Giersing B, Hausdorff WP, Marshall C, Porter CK, Walker RI, Bourgeois AL. Vaccine value profile for enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC). Vaccine 2023; 41 Suppl 2:S95-S113. [PMID: 37951695 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.02.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2022] [Revised: 11/28/2022] [Accepted: 02/05/2023] [Indexed: 11/14/2023]
Abstract
Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) is one of the leading bacterial causes of diarrhoea, especially among children in low-resource settings, and travellers and military personnel from high-income countries. WHO's primary strategic goal for ETEC vaccine development is to develop a safe, effective, and affordable ETEC vaccine that reduces mortality and morbidity due to moderate-to-severe diarrhoeal disease in infants and children under 5 years of age in LMICs, as well as the long-term negative health impact on infant physical and cognitive development resulting from infection with this enteric pathogen. An effective ETEC vaccine will also likely reduce the need for antibiotic treatment and help limit the further emergence of antimicrobial resistance bacterial pathogens. The lead ETEC vaccine candidate, ETVAX, has shown field efficacy in travellers and has moved into field efficacy testing in LMIC infants and children. A Phase 3 efficacy study in LMIC infants is projected to start in 2024 and plans for a Phase 3 trial in travellers are under discussion with the U.S. FDA. Licensing for both travel and LMIC indications is projected to be feasible in the next 5-8 years. Given increasing recognition of its negative impact on child health and development in LMICs and predominance as the leading etiology of travellers' diarrhoea (TD), a standalone vaccine for ETEC is more cost-effective than vaccines targeting other TD pathogens, and a viable commercial market also exists. In contrast, combination of an ETEC vaccine with other vaccines for childhood pathogens in LMICs would maximize protection in a more cost-effective manner than a series of stand-alone vaccines. This 'Vaccine Value Profile' (VVP) for ETEC is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of available data to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public private partnerships, and multi-lateral organizations. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the ETEC VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ibrahim Khalil
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
| | - John D Anderson
- Bagamian Scientific Consulting, LLC, Gainesville, FL 32601, USA; Office of Health Affairs, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26505, USA
| | - Karoun H Bagamian
- Bagamian Scientific Consulting, LLC, Gainesville, FL 32601, USA; Department of Environmental and Global Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32603, USA
| | - Shahida Baqar
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Birgitte Giersing
- Department of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals (IVB), World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - William P Hausdorff
- PATH, Center for Vaccine Innovation and Access, 455 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20001 USA; Faculty of Medicine, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels 1070, Belgium
| | - Caroline Marshall
- Department of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals (IVB), World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Chad K Porter
- Directorate for DoD Infectious Diseases Research, Naval Medical Research Command, Silver Spring, MD 20190, USA
| | - Richard I Walker
- PATH, Center for Vaccine Innovation and Access, 455 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20001 USA
| | - A Louis Bourgeois
- PATH, Center for Vaccine Innovation and Access, 455 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20001 USA
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14
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Hausdorff WP, Anderson JD, Bagamian KH, Bourgeois AL, Mills M, Sawe F, Scheele S, Talaat K, Giersing BK. Vaccine value profile for Shigella. Vaccine 2023; 41 Suppl 2:S76-S94. [PMID: 37827969 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.12.037] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2022] [Revised: 10/14/2022] [Accepted: 12/16/2022] [Indexed: 10/14/2023]
Abstract
Shigella is the leading bacterial cause of diarrhoea and the second leading cause of diarrhoeal mortality among all ages. It also exhibits increasing levels of antibiotic resistance. The greatest burden is among children under five in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). As such, a priority strategic goal of the World Health Organization (WHO) is the development of a safe, effective and affordable vaccine to reduce morbidity and mortality from Shigella-attributable dysentery and diarrhea, including long term outcomes associated with chronic inflammation and growth faltering, in children under 5 years of age in LMICs. In addition, a safe and effective Shigella vaccine is of potential interest to travellers and military both to prevent acute disease and rarer, long-term sequelae. An effective Shigella vaccine is also anticipated to reduce antibiotic use and thereby help diminish further emergence of enteric pathogens resistant to antimicrobials. The most advanced vaccine candidates are multivalent, parenteral formulations in Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical studies. They rely on O-antigen-polysaccharide protein conjugate technologies or, alternatively, outer membrane vesicles expressing penta-acylated lipopolysaccharide that has been detoxified. Other parenteral and oral formulations, many delivering a broader array of Shigella antigens, are at earlier stages of clinical development. These formulations are being assessed in alignment with the WHO Preferred Product Characteristics, which call for a 1 to 2 dose primary immunization series given during the first 12 months of life, ideally starting at 6 months of age. This 'Vaccine Value Profile' (VVP) for Shigella is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of the information and data that are currently available to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, government agencies and multi-lateral organizations. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the Shigella VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.
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Affiliation(s)
- William P Hausdorff
- Center for Vaccine Innovation and Access, PATH, 455 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20001, USA; Faculty of Medicine, Université de Bruxelles, Brussels 1070, Belgium.
| | - John D Anderson
- Office of Health Affairs, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26505, USA; Bagamian Scientific Consulting, LLC, Gainesville, FL 32601, USA
| | - Karoun H Bagamian
- Bagamian Scientific Consulting, LLC, Gainesville, FL 32601, USA; Department of Environmental and Global Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32603, USA
| | - A Louis Bourgeois
- Center for Vaccine Innovation and Access, PATH, 455 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20001, USA
| | - Melody Mills
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA
| | - Frederick Sawe
- Kenya Medical Research Institute/U.S. Army Medical Research Directorate-Africa/Kenya-Henry Jackson Foundation MRI, Kericho, Kenya
| | - Suzanne Scheele
- Center for Vaccine Innovation and Access, PATH, 455 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20001, USA
| | - Kawsar Talaat
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
| | - Birgitte K Giersing
- Department of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals (IVB), World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, Switzerland
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15
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Brintz BJ, Colston JM, Ahmed SM, Chao DL, Zaitschik B, Leung DT. Assessment of Model Estimated and Directly Observed Weather Data for Etiological Prediction of Diarrhea. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.10.12.23296959. [PMID: 37873274 PMCID: PMC10593035 DOI: 10.1101/2023.10.12.23296959] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2023]
Abstract
Recent advances in clinical prediction for diarrheal etiology in low- and middle-income countries have revealed that addition of weather data improves predictive performance. However, the optimal source of weather data remains unclear. We aim to compare model estimated satellite- and ground-based observational data with weather station directly-observed data for diarrheal prediction. We used clinical and etiological data from a large multi-center study of children with diarrhea to compare these methods. We show that the two sources of weather conditions perform similarly in most locations. We conclude that while model estimated data is a viable, scalable tool for public health interventions and disease prediction, directly observed weather station data approximates the modeled data, and given its ease of access, is likely adequate for prediction of diarrheal etiology in children in low- and middle-income countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben J Brintz
- Division of Epidemiology, University of Utah School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
| | - Josh M Colston
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, USA
| | - Sharia M Ahmed
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Utah School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
| | - Dennis L Chao
- Institute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ben Zaitschik
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Daniel T Leung
- Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Utah School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
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16
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Wang X, Wang X, Cao J. Environmental Factors Associated with Cryptosporidium and Giardia. Pathogens 2023; 12:pathogens12030420. [PMID: 36986342 PMCID: PMC10056321 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens12030420] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2023] [Revised: 02/17/2023] [Accepted: 03/01/2023] [Indexed: 03/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Environmental factors significantly influence the transmission of intestinal protozoan diseases. Cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis are important zoonotic diseases characterized by diarrhea, and are mainly water or foodborne diseases caused by fecal-borne oocysts. The One Health approach effectively addresses environmentally influenced zoonotic diseases. However, the impact of environmental factors on the survival of Cryptosporidium/Giardia (oo)cysts or disease transmission is mostly uncharacterized. Associations between cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis incidence and environmental variables (e.g., climatic conditions, soil characteristics, and water characteristics) have been reported; however, the identified relationships are not consistently reported. Whether these are country-specific or global observations is unclear. Herein, we review the evidence for the influence of environmental factors on Cryptosporidium/Giardia and corresponding diseases from three perspectives: climatic, soil, and water characteristics. The (oo)cyst concentration or survival of Cryptosporidium/Giardia and the incidence of corresponding diseases are related to environmental variables. The associations identified varied among studies and have different levels of importance and lag times in different locations. This review summarizes the influence of relevant environmental factors on Cryptosporidium/Giardia from the One Health perspective and provides recommendations for future research, monitoring, and response.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xihan Wang
- Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, School of Global Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China
- Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, Shanghai 200025, China
- World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Tropical Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China
- One Health Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University-The University of Edinburgh, Shanghai 200025, China
| | - Xu Wang
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China
- Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, Shanghai 200025, China
- World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Tropical Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China
| | - Jianping Cao
- Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research, School of Global Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China
- Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, Shanghai 200025, China
- World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Tropical Diseases, Shanghai 200025, China
- One Health Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University-The University of Edinburgh, Shanghai 200025, China
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17
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Colston JM, Hinson P, Nguyen NLH, Chen YT, Badr HS, Kerr GH, Gardner LM, Martin DN, Quispe AM, Schiaffino F, Kosek MN, Zaitchik BF. Effects of hydrometeorological and other factors on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number in three contiguous countries of tropical Andean South America: a spatiotemporally disaggregated time series analysis. IJID REGIONS 2023; 6:29-41. [PMID: 36437857 PMCID: PMC9675637 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijregi.2022.11.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2022] [Revised: 11/14/2022] [Accepted: 11/15/2022] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Background The COVID-19 pandemic has caused societal disruption globally, and South America has been hit harder than other lower-income regions. This study modeled the effects of six weather variables on district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers (Rt ) in three contiguous countries of tropical Andean South America (Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru), adjusting for environmental, policy, healthcare infrastructural and other factors. Methods Daily time-series data on SARS-CoV-2 infections were sourced from the health authorities of the three countries at the smallest available administrative level. Rt values were calculated and merged by date and unit ID with variables from a unified COVID-19 dataset and other publicly available sources for May-December, 2020. Generalized additive models were fitted. Findings Relative humidity and solar radiation were inversely associated with SARS-CoV-2 Rt . Days with radiation above 1000 kJ/m2 saw a 1.3% reduction in Rt , and those with humidity above 50% recorded a 0.9% reduction in Rt . Transmission was highest in densely populated districts, and lowest in districts with poor healthcare access and on days with lowest population mobility. Wind speed, temperature, region, aggregate government policy response, and population age structure had little impact. The fully adjusted model explained 4.3% of Rt variance. Interpretation Dry atmospheric conditions of low humidity increase district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers, while higher levels of solar radiation decrease district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers - effects that are comparable in magnitude to population factors like lockdown compliance. Weather monitoring could be incorporated into disease surveillance and early warning systems in conjunction with more established risk indicators and surveillance measures. Funding NASA's Group on Earth Observations Work Programme (16-GEO16-0047).
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Affiliation(s)
- Josh M. Colston
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Patrick Hinson
- College of Arts and Sciences, University of Virginia, VA, USA
| | | | - Yen Ting Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Hamada S. Badr
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Baltimore, MD, 21218, USA
| | - Gaige H. Kerr
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Lauren M. Gardner
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - David N. Martin
- Claude Moore Health Sciences Library, University of Virginia School of Medicine, VA, USA
| | | | - Francesca Schiaffino
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health and Public Health Sciences, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Margaret N. Kosek
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health and Public Health Sciences, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 22903, USA
| | - Benjamin F. Zaitchik
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA
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18
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Mero S, Lääveri T, Ursing J, Rombo L, Kofoed PE, Kantele A. Seasonal variation of diarrhoeal pathogens among Guinea-Bissauan children under five years of age. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2023; 17:e0011179. [PMID: 36913409 PMCID: PMC10035853 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011179] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2022] [Revised: 03/23/2023] [Accepted: 02/17/2023] [Indexed: 03/14/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Diarrhoea remains a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in low-income countries (LICs). The frequency of diarrhoeal episodes may vary by season, yet few prospective cohort studies have examined seasonal variation among various diarrhoeal pathogens using multiplex qPCR to analyse bacterial, viral and parasitic pathogens. METHODS We combined our recent qPCR data of diarrhoeal pathogens (nine bacterial, five viral and four parasitic) among Guinea-Bissauan children under five years old with individual background data, dividing by season. The associations of season (dry winter and rainy summer) and the various pathogens were explored among infants (0-11 months) and young children (12-59 months) and those with and without diarrhoea. RESULTS Many bacterial pathogens, especially EAEC, ETEC and Campylobacter, and parasitic Cryptosporidium, prevailed in the rainy season, whereas many viruses, particularly the adenovirus, astrovirus and rotavirus proved common in the dry season. Noroviruses were found constantly throughout the year. Seasonal variation was observed in both age groups. CONCLUSION In childhood diarrhoea in a West African LIC, seasonal variation appears to favour EAEC, ETEC, and Cryptosporidium in the rainy and viral pathogens in the dry season.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sointu Mero
- Human Microbiome Research Program, Faculty of Medicine, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Meilahti Infectious Diseases and Vaccine Research Center, MeiVac, Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Helsinki and Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Tinja Lääveri
- Meilahti Infectious Diseases and Vaccine Research Center, MeiVac, Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Helsinki and Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
- Department of Computer Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
| | - Johan Ursing
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Danderyds Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Clinical Science, Karolinska Institutet, Danderyd Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
- Bandim Health Project, Indepth Network, Bissau, Guinea-Bissau
| | - Lars Rombo
- Department of Medical Biochemistry and Microbiology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- Centre for Clinical Research, Sörmland County Council, Eskilstuna, Sweden and Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Poul-Erik Kofoed
- Bandim Health Project, Indepth Network, Bissau, Guinea-Bissau
- Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Lillebaelt Hospital, University Hospital of Southern Denmark, Kolding, Denmark
| | - Anu Kantele
- Human Microbiome Research Program, Faculty of Medicine, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Meilahti Infectious Diseases and Vaccine Research Center, MeiVac, Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Helsinki and Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
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19
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Badr HS, Colston JM, Nguyen NLH, Chen YT, Burnett E, Ali SA, Rayamajhi A, Satter SM, Van Trang N, Eibach D, Krumkamp R, May J, Adegnika AA, Manouana GP, Kremsner PG, Chilengi R, Hatyoka L, Debes AK, Ateudjieu J, Faruque ASG, Hossain MJ, Kanungo S, Kotloff KL, Mandomando I, Nisar MI, Omore R, Sow SO, Zaidi AKM, Lambrecht N, Adu B, Page N, Platts-Mills JA, Mavacala Freitas C, Pelkonen T, Ashorn P, Maleta K, Ahmed T, Bessong P, Bhutta ZA, Mason C, Mduma E, Olortegui MP, Peñataro Yori P, Lima AAM, Kang G, Humphrey J, Ntozini R, Prendergast AJ, Okada K, Wongboot W, Langeland N, Moyo SJ, Gaensbauer J, Melgar M, Freeman M, Chard AN, Thongpaseuth V, Houpt E, Zaitchik BF, Kosek MN. Spatiotemporal variation in risk of Shigella infection in childhood: a global risk mapping and prediction model using individual participant data. Lancet Glob Health 2023; 11:e373-e384. [PMID: 36796984 PMCID: PMC10020138 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(22)00549-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2022] [Revised: 11/18/2022] [Accepted: 12/14/2022] [Indexed: 02/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of childhood illness and death globally, and Shigella is a major aetiological contributor for which a vaccine might soon be available. The primary objective of this study was to model the spatiotemporal variation in paediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS Individual participant data for Shigella positivity in stool samples were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies of children aged 59 months or younger. Covariates included household-level and participant-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum. FINDINGS 20 studies from 23 countries (including locations in Central America and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, and south and southeast Asia) contributed 66 563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Probability of Shigella infection exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhoea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Compared with unimproved sanitation, improved sanitation decreased the odds of Shigella infection by 19% (odds ratio [OR]=0·81 [95% CI 0·76-0·86]) and open defecation decreased them by 18% (OR=0·82 [0·76-0·88]). INTERPRETATION The distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors, such as temperature, than previously recognised. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, although hotspots also occur in South America and Central America, the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, and the island of New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritisation of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns. FUNDING NASA, National Institutes of Health-The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hamada S Badr
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Baltimore, MA, USA
| | - Josh M Colston
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | | | - Yen Ting Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Eleanor Burnett
- Division of Viral Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Syed Asad Ali
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Ajit Rayamajhi
- Department of Pediatrics, National Academy of Medical Sciences, Kanti Children's Hospital, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Syed M Satter
- Programme for Emerging Infections, Infectious Diseases Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Daniel Eibach
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine (BNITM), Hamburg, Germany
| | - Ralf Krumkamp
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine (BNITM), Hamburg, Germany
| | - Jürgen May
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine (BNITM), Hamburg, Germany
| | - Ayola Akim Adegnika
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, Universitätsklinikum Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
| | | | | | - Roma Chilengi
- Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Luiza Hatyoka
- Enteric diseases and Vaccines Unit, Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Amanda K Debes
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Jerome Ateudjieu
- Faculty of Medicine and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Dschang, Dschang, Cameroon; Department of Health Research, M A SANTE (Meileur Acces aux Soins en Santé), Yaoundé, Cameroon; Division of Health Operations Research, Cameroon Ministry of Public Health, Yaoundé, Cameroon
| | - Abu S G Faruque
- Centre for Nutrition & Food Security, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - M Jahangir Hossain
- Medical Research Council Unit, The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Suman Kanungo
- National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases, Kolkota, India
| | - Karen L Kotloff
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | - M Imran Nisar
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Richard Omore
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, Center for Global Health Research, Kisumu, Nyanza, Kenya
| | - Samba O Sow
- Centre pour le Développement des Vaccins, Mali, Bamako, Mali
| | - Anita K M Zaidi
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Nathalie Lambrecht
- Institute of Public Health, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Corporate Member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Research Department 2, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Bright Adu
- Department of Immunology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana
| | - Nicola Page
- Centre for Enteric Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - James A Platts-Mills
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | | | - Tuula Pelkonen
- New Children's Hospital, Pediatric Research Center and Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Per Ashorn
- Centre for Child, Adolescent, and Maternal Health Research, Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University and Tampere University Hospital, Tampere, Finland
| | - Kenneth Maleta
- College of Medicine, University of Malawi, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Tahmeed Ahmed
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Pascal Bessong
- HIV/AIDS & Global Health Research Programme, University of Venda, Thohoyandou, Limpopo, South Africa
| | - Zulfiqar A Bhutta
- Center of Excellence in Women and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Carl Mason
- Department of Enteric Diseases, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences (AFRIMS), Bangkok, Thailand
| | | | | | - Pablo Peñataro Yori
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | - Aldo A M Lima
- Department of Physiology and Pharmacology, Faculty of Medicine, Federal University of Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil
| | - Gagandeep Kang
- Department of Gastrointestinal Sciences, Christian Medical College, Vellore, India
| | - Jean Humphrey
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Robert Ntozini
- Zvitambo Institute for Maternal and Child Health Research, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | | | - Kazuhisa Okada
- Research Institute for Microbial Diseases, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan
| | - Warawan Wongboot
- Department of Medical Sciences, National Institute of Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Nina Langeland
- Department of Clinical Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - Sabrina J Moyo
- Department of Clinical Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - James Gaensbauer
- Center for Global Health, Department of Epidemiology, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, CO, USA
| | - Mario Melgar
- Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Hospital Roosevelt, Guatemala City, Guatemala
| | - Matthew Freeman
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, 30322, GA, USA
| | - Anna N Chard
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, 30322, GA, USA
| | - Vonethalom Thongpaseuth
- Laboratory and Treatment Unit, Center for Malariology, Parasitology, and Entomology, Ministry of Health, Vientiane, Lao PDR
| | - Eric Houpt
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | - Benjamin F Zaitchik
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Baltimore, MA, USA.
| | - Margaret N Kosek
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, USA
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20
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Asare EO, Al-Mamun MA, Sarmin M, Faruque ASG, Ahmed T, Pitzer VE. The influence of demographic and meteorological factors on temporal patterns of rotavirus infection in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Proc Biol Sci 2022; 289:20212727. [PMID: 35673869 PMCID: PMC9174722 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.2727] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
To quantify the potential impact of rotavirus vaccines and identify strategies to improve vaccine performance in Bangladesh, a better understanding of the drivers of pre-vaccination rotavirus patterns is required. We developed and fitted mathematical models to 23 years (1990-2012) of weekly rotavirus surveillance data from Dhaka with and without incorporating long-term and seasonal variation in the birth rate and meteorological factors. We performed external model validation using data between 2013 and 2019 from the regions of Dhaka and Matlab. The models showed good agreement with the observed age distribution of rotavirus cases and captured the observed shift in seasonal patterns of rotavirus hospitalizations from biannual to annual peaks. The declining long-term trend in the birth rate in Bangladesh was the key driver of the observed shift from biannual to annual winter rotavirus patterns. Meteorological indices were also important: a 1°C, 1% and 1 mm increase in diurnal temperature range, surface water presence and degree of wetness were associated with a 19%, 3.9% and 0.6% increase in the transmission rate, respectively. The model demonstrated reasonable predictions for both Dhaka and Matlab, and can be used to evaluate the impact of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh against changing patterns of disease incidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ernest O. Asare
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Mohammad A. Al-Mamun
- Department of Pharmaceutical Systems and Policy, School of Pharmacy, West Virginia University, USA
| | - Monira Sarmin
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division (NCSD), International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - A. S. G. Faruque
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division (NCSD), International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Tahmeed Ahmed
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division (NCSD), International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Virginia E. Pitzer
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
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21
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Colston JM, Taniuchi M, Ahmed T, Ferdousi T, Kabir F, Mduma E, Nshama R, Iqbal NT, Haque R, Ahmed T, Ali Bhutta Z, Kosek MN, Platts-Mills JA. Intestinal Colonization With Bifidobacterium longum Subspecies Is Associated With Length at Birth, Exclusive Breastfeeding, and Decreased Risk of Enteric Virus Infections, but Not With Histo-Blood Group Antigens, Oral Vaccine Response or Later Growth in Three Birth Cohorts. Front Pediatr 2022; 10:804798. [PMID: 35252058 PMCID: PMC8888871 DOI: 10.3389/fped.2022.804798] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2021] [Accepted: 01/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Bifidobacterium longum subspecies detected in infant stool have been associated with numerous subsequent health outcomes and are potential early markers of deviation from healthy developmental trajectories. This analysis derived indicators of carriage and early colonization with B. infantis and B. longum and quantified their associations with a panel of early-life exposures and outcomes. In a sub-study nested within a multi-site birth cohort, extant stool samples from infants in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Tanzania were tested for presence and quantity of two Bifidobacterium longum subspecies. The results were matched to indicators of nutritional status, enteropathogen infection, histo-blood group antigens, vaccine response and feeding status and regression models were fitted to test for associations while adjusting for covariates. B. infantis was associated with lower quantity of and decreased odds of colonization with B. longum, and vice versa. Length at birth was associated with a 0.36 increase in log10 B. infantis and a 0.28 decrease in B. longum quantity at 1 month of age. B. infantis colonization was associated with fewer viral infections and small reductions in the risk of rotavirus and sapovirus infections, but not reduced overall diarrheal disease risk. No associations with vaccine responses, HBGAs or later nutritional status were identified. Suboptimal intrauterine growth and a shorter duration of exclusive breastfeeding may predispose infants to early intestinal colonization with the B. longum subspecies at the expense of B. infantis, thus denying them potential benefits of reduced enteric virus episodes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Josh M Colston
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States
| | - Mami Taniuchi
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States
| | - Tahmina Ahmed
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States
| | - Tania Ferdousi
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Furqan Kabir
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Estomih Mduma
- Haydom Global Health Research Centre, Haydom, Tanzania
| | | | - Najeeha Talat Iqbal
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Rashidul Haque
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Tahmeed Ahmed
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Zulfiqar Ali Bhutta
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Margaret N Kosek
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States.,Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, United States
| | - James A Platts-Mills
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States
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