Effects of Drought on Mortality in Macro Urban Areas of Brazil Between 2000 and 2019

NPCC4: New York City climate risk information 2022-observations and projections

New York City (NYC) faces many challenges in the coming decades due to climate change and its interactions with social vulnerabilities and uneven urban development patterns and processes. This New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) report contributes to the Panel's mandate to advise the city on climate change and provide timely climate risk information that can inform flexible and equitable adaptation pathways that enhance resilience to climate change. This report presents up-to-date scientific information as well as updated sea level rise projections of record. We also present a new methodology related to climate extremes and describe new methods for developing the next generation of climate projections for the New York metropolitan region. Future work by the Panel should compare the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report with a subset of models to determine the potential impact and relevance of the "hot model" problem. NPCC4 expects to establish new projections-of-record for precipitation and temperature in 2024 based on this comparison and additional analysis. Nevertheless, the temperature and precipitation projections presented in this report may be useful for NYC stakeholders in the interim as they rely on the newest generation of global climate models.

The trends of non-accidental mortality burden attributed to compound hot-dry events in China and its provinces in a global warming world

BACKGROUND

Global warming has provoked more co-occurrence of hot extreme and dry extreme, namely compound hot-dry events (CHDEs). However, their health impacts have seldom been investigated. This study aimed to characterize CHDEs and assess its mortality burden in China from 1990 to 2100.

METHODS

CHDEs were defined as a day when daily maximum temperature > its 90th percentile and Standardized Precipitation Index < its 50th percentile. A two-stage approach, including a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and a multivariate meta-analysis, was used to estimate exposure-response associations of CHDEs with mortality in 358 counties/districts during 2006-2017 in China, which was then applied to assess the national mortality burden attributable to CHDEs from 1990 to 2100.

FINDINGS

We observed a significant increasing trend of CHDEs in China until mid-21st century, and then flatted, while the duration and intensity of CHDEs continuously increased across the 21st century. CHDEs were much riskier (ER=17.82 %, 95 %CI: 14.17 %-21.60 %) than independent hot events (ER=5.86 %,95 %CI: -0.04 %,12.45 %) or dry events (ER=0.07 %,95 %CI: -1.22 %, 1.38 %), and there was significantly additive interaction between hot events and dry events (AP=0.10,95 %CI: 0.04, 0.16). Females (ER=24.28 %, 95 %CI: 19.21 %-29.56 %), the elderly (ER=23.28 %, 95 %CI: 18.23 %-28.55 %), and people living in humid area (ER=18.98 %, 95 %CI: 15.08 %-23.02 %) had higher mortality risks than their counterparts. Mortality burden attributed to CHDEs significantly increased during historical observation and became stable since mid-21st century in China.

INTERPRETATION

CHDEs would significantly increase mortality with higher risk for females, the elderly and people living in humid areas. Mortality burden has significantly increased during historical observation and will keep relatively steady since mid-21st century.

Co-occurrence of marine and atmospheric heatwaves with drought conditions and fire activity in the Mediterranean region

Climate change has become a major concern in the twenty-first century, leading to the amplification of extreme events and, consequently, to severe impacts on society, economy and ecosystems. Heatwave conditions in particular, often coupled with extended periods of dryness, have an important contribution in exacerbating rural fires. Here, we propose to analyse the co-occurring interplay between atmospheric heatwaves and droughts in southern Europe, and marine heatwaves in the East Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea, between 2001 and 2022, highlighting their linkage to wildfires, on both an individual and compound approach. Positive correlations between air and sea temperatures and negative correlations between air temperature and precipitation values were found. Our analysis reveals that severe wildfires are mostly associated with reduced precipitation and/or elevated air temperatures during the summer season, alongside heightened sea surface temperatures. Marine hot (drier) conditions are prevalent for months in which burned areas remain below (above) the 80th percentile. Months marked by higher fire activity are predominantly associated with extreme climatic conditions, showcasing a substantial occurrence of compound events. This study highlights the potential of considering both land-based atmospheric and marine conditions when exploring compound extremes, crucial for mitigating climatic disasters. Moreover, it highlights the role played by compound extreme events in fire management strategies, particularly considering the present context of climate change and the increasing frequency and severity of extreme events threatening ecosystem stability.

Analyzing the effects of drought at different time scales on cause-specific mortality in South Africa

South Africa (SA) is highly vulnerable to the effects of drought on the environment, economy, and society. However, its effect on human health remains unclear. Understanding the mortality risk associated with different types of droughts in different population groups and by specific causes would help clarify the potential mechanisms involved. The study aims to comprehensively assess the effect of droughts of varying time scales on cause-specific mortality (all; infectious and parasitic; endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic; cardiovascular; respiratory) in SA (from 2009-2016) and identify more vulnerable profiles based on sex and age. We also evaluated the urbanicity and district-level socioeconomic deprivation as potential risk modifiers. We used a two-stage time-series study design, with the weekly standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculated at 1, 6, 12, and 15 months of accumulation to identify droughts of different duration (SPEI1, 6, 12, 15, respectively). We applied a quasi-Poisson regression adjusted by mean temperature to assess the association between each type of drought and weekly mortality in all district municipalities of SA, and then pooled the estimates in a meta-regression model. We reported relative risks (RRs) for one unit increase of drought severity. Overall, we found a positive association between droughts (regardless the time scale) and all causes of death analyzed. The strongest associations were found for the drought events more prolonged (RR [95%CI]: 1.027 [1.018, 1.036] (SPEI1); 1.035 [1.021, 1.050] (SPEI6); 1.033 [1.008, 1.058] (SPEI12); 1.098 [1.068, 1.129] (SPEI15)) and respiratory mortality (RRs varied from 1.037 [1.021, 1.053] (SPEI1) to 1.189 [1.14, 1.241] (SPEI15)). An indication of greater vulnerability was found in younger adults for the shortest droughts, in older adults for medium-term and long-term droughts, and children for very long-term droughts. However, differences were not significant. Further evidence of the relevance of urbanicity and demographic and socioeconomic conditions as potential risk modifiers is needed.

Climate crisis risks to elderly health: strategies for effective promotion and response

The climate crisis significantly impacts the health and well-being of older adults, both directly and indirectly. This issue is of growing concern in Canada due to the country's rapidly accelerating warming trend and expanding elderly population. This article serves a threefold purpose: (i) outlining the impacts of the climate crisis on older adults, (ii) providing a descriptive review of existing policies with a specific focus on the Canadian context, and (iii) promoting actionable recommendations. Our review reveals the application of current strategies, including early warning systems, enhanced infrastructure, sustainable urban planning, healthcare access, social support systems, and community engagement, in enhancing resilience and reducing health consequences among older adults. Within the Canadian context, we then emphasize the importance of establishing robust risk metrics and evaluation methods to prepare for and manage the impacts of the climate crisis efficiently. We underscore the value of vulnerability mapping, utilizing geographic information to identify regions where older adults are most at risk. This allows for targeted interventions and resource allocation. We recommend employing a root cause analysis approach to tailor risk response strategies, along with a focus on promoting awareness, readiness, physician training, and fostering collaboration and benchmarking. These suggestions aim to enhance disaster risk management for the well-being and resilience of older adults in the face of the climate crisis.

The effect of heterogeneous severe drought on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the Northern Rockies and Plains of the United States

Drought is a distinct and complicated climate hazard that regularly leads to severe economic impacts. Changes in the frequency and occurrence of drought due to anthropogenic climate change can lead to new and unanticipated outcomes. To better prepare for health outcomes, more research is needed to develop methodologies to understand potential consequences. This study suggests a new methodology for assessing the impact of monthly severe drought exposure on mortality in the Northern Rockies and Plains of the United States from 2000 to 2018. A two-stage model with the power prior approach was applied to integrate heterogeneous severe drought pattern and estimate overall risk ratios of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality related to multiple drought indices (the US Drought Monitor, 6- and 12-month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, 6- and 12 month Evaporative Demand Drought Index). Under severe drought, the risk ratios of all-cause mortality are 1.050 (95 % Cr: 1.031 to 1.071, USDM), 1.041 (95 % Cr: 1.022 to 1.060, 6-SPEI), 1.009 (95 % Cr: 0.989 to 1.031, 12SPEI), 1.045 (95 % Cr: 1.022 to 1.067, 6-EDDI), and 1.035 (95 % Cr: 1.009 to 1.062, 12-EDDI); cardiovascular mortality are 1.057 (95 % Cr: 1.023 to 1.091, USDM), 1.028 (95 % Cr: 0.998 to 1.059, 6-SPEI), 1.005 (95 % Cr: 0.973 to 1.040, 12-SPEI), 1.042 (95 % Cr: 1.005 to 1.080, 6-EDDI), and 1.004 (95 % Cr: 0.959 to 1.049, 12-EDDI). Our results showed that (i) a model with properly accounted for heterogeneous exposure pattern had greater risk ratios if statistically significant; (ii) a mid-term (6-month) severe drought had higher risk ratios compared to longer-term (12-month) drought; and (iii) different severe droughts affect populations in a different way. These results expand the existing knowledge of drought relationship to increasing mortality in the United States. The findings from this study highlight the need for communities and policymakers to establish effective drought-prevention initiatives in this region.

Twenty-first-century demographic and social inequalities of heat-related deaths in Brazilian urban areas

Population exposure to heat waves (HWs) is increasing worldwide due to climate change, significantly affecting society, including public health. Despite its significant vulnerabilities and limited adaptation resources to rising temperatures, South America, particularly Brazil, lacks research on the health impacts of temperature extremes, especially on the role played by socioeconomic factors in the risk of heat-related illness. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of the effects of HWs on mortality rates in the 14 most populous urban areas, comprising approximately 35% of the country's population. Excess mortality during HWs was estimated through the observed-to-expected ratio (O/E) for total deaths during the events identified. Moreover, the interplay of intersectionality and vulnerability to heat considering demographics and socioeconomic heterogeneities, using gender, age, race, and educational level as proxies, as well as the leading causes of heat-related excess death, were assessed. A significant increase in the frequency was observed from the 1970s (0-3 HWs year-1) to the 2010s (3-11 HWs year-1), with higher tendencies in the northern, northeastern, and central-western regions. Over the 2000-2018 period, 48,075 (40,448-55,279) excessive deaths were attributed to the growing number of HWs (>20 times the number of landslides-related deaths for the same period). Nevertheless, our event-based surveillance analysis did not detect the HW-mortality nexus, reinforcing that extreme heat events are a neglected disaster in Brazil. Among the leading causes of death, diseases of the circulatory and respiratory systems and neoplasms were the most frequent. Critical regional differences were observed, which can be linked to the sharp North-South inequalities in terms of socioeconomic and health indicators, such as life expectancy. Higher heat-related excess mortality was observed for low-educational level people, blacks and browns, older adults, and females. Such findings highlight that the strengthening of primary health care combined with reducing socioeconomic, racial, and gender inequalities represents a crucial step to reducing heat-related deaths.

Risk and attributable fraction estimation for the impact of exposure to compound drought and hot events on daily stroke admissions

BACKGROUND

The projection indicates that compound drought and hot events (CDHEs) will intensify, posing risks to cardiovascular health by potentially increasing stroke incidents. However, epidemiological evidence on this topic remains scarce. This study investigates the association between exposure to CDHEs and the risk of daily stroke admissions, specifically examining the effects on various stroke categories such as Subarachnoid Hemorrhage (SAH), Intracerebral Hemorrhage (ICH), Ischemic Stroke (IS), Transient Ischemic Attack (TIA), and other types of stroke.

METHODS

Data on daily stroke admissions from 2010 to 2015 were obtained from the Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) and Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance (URBMI) claims databases in Guangzhou, China. Hot events were identified as days when the daily mean temperature exceeded the 75th percentile during the warm season (May to October) over the study period. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was utilized to identify drought conditions, with thresholds set at -1 and -1.5 for low-severity and high-severity drought events, respectively. Through a generalized additive model (GAM), we analyzed the cumulative effects of CDHE exposure on daily stroke admissions and calculated the Attributable Fraction (AF) related to CDHEs.

RESULTS

The analysis included 179,963 stroke admission records. We observed a significant increase in stroke admission risks due to exposure to hot events coupled with high-severity drought conditions (RR = 1.18, 95%CI: 1.01-1.38), with IS being the most affected category (RR = 1.20, 95%CI: 1.03-1.40). The AF of total stroke admission attributed to hot events in conjunction with high-severity drought conditions was 24.40% (95%CI: 1.86%-50.20%).

CONCLUSION

The combination of hot events with high-severity drought conditions is likely linked to an increased risk of stroke and IS admissions, which providing new insights into the impact of temperature and climate-related hazards on cardiovascular health.

Mental health of vulnerable groups experiencing a drought or bushfire: A systematic review

Natural hazards are increasing because of climate change, and they disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. Prior reviews of the mental health consequences of natural hazard events have not focused on the particular experiences of vulnerable groups. Based on the expected increase in fires and droughts in the coming years, the aim of this systematic review is to synthesize the global evidence about the mental health of vulnerable populations after experiencing natural hazards. We searched databases such as Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and Ovid PsycInfo using a systematic strategy, which yielded 3,401 publications. We identified 18 eligible studies conducted in five different countries with 15,959 participants. The most common vulnerabilities were living in a rural area, occupying a low socioeconomic position, being a member of an ethnic minority and having a medical condition. Common experiences reported by vulnerable individuals affected by drought included worry, hopelessness, isolation and suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Those affected by fire reported experiencing posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and anger. These mental health problems exacerbated existing health and socioeconomic challenges. The evidence base about mental health in vulnerable communities affected by natural hazards can be improved by including standardized measures and comparison groups, examining the role of intersectional vulnerabilities, and disaggregating data routinely to allow for analyses of the particular experiences of vulnerable communities. Such efforts will help ensure that programs are informed by an understanding of the unique needs of these communities.

The Interactive Effects between Drought and Air Pollutants on Children's Upper Respiratory Tract Infection: A Time-Series Analysis in Gansu, China

As a destructive and economic disaster in the world, drought shows an increasing trend under the continuous global climate change and adverse health effects have been reported. The interactive effects between drought and air pollutants, which may also be harmful to respiratory systems, remain to be discussed. We built the generalized additive model (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to estimate the effects of drought and air pollutants on daily upper respiratory infections (URTI) outpatient visits among children under 6 in three cities of Gansu province. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on monthly precipitation (SPI-1) was used as an indicator of drought. A non-stratified model was established to explore the interaction effect of SPI-1 and air pollutants. We illustrated the number of daily pediatric URTI outpatient visits increased with the decrease in SPI-1. The interactive effects between air pollutants and the number of daily pediatric URTIs were significant. According to the non-stratified model, we revealed highly polluted and drought environments had the most significant impact on URTI in children. The occurrence of drought and air pollutants increased URTI in children and exhibited a significant interactive effect.

2030 Agenda: discussion on Brazilian priorities facing air pollution and climate change challenges

The advance of human activities in a disorderly way has accelerated in recent decades, intensifying the environmental impacts directly linked to these practices. The atmosphere, essential for the maintenance of life, is increasingly saturated with pollutants, offering risks to practically all the inhabitants of the planet, a process that, in addition to causing illness and early mortality, is related to serious financial losses (including in the production of goods), dangerous temperature increase and severe natural disasters. Although this perception is not recent, the global initiative to control the different mechanisms that trigger the commitment of biodiversity and irreversible climate changes arising from pollution is still very incipient, given that global initiatives on the subject emerged just over 50 years ago. Brazil is a territory that centralizes many of these discussions, as it still faces both political and economic obstacles in achieving a sustainable growth model as it was agreed through the United Nations 2030 Agenda. Even though there is little time left for the completion of these goals, much remains to be done, and despite the fulfillment of this deadline, the works will certainly need to be extended for much longer until an effective reorientation of consciousness occurs. Scientific researches and discussions are fundamental tools to the understanding of issues still little explored in this field.

Mental Health and Community Resilience among Vulnerable Populations Affected by Natural Hazards: Protocol for Scoping Reviews

INTRODUCTION

Exposure to natural hazards such as fire, drought, floods, and earthquakes can have negative impacts on physical and mental health and wellbeing. The social and structural factors contributing to individual and community vulnerability also influence responses to disaster and the resulting consequences on health and wellbeing. Experiencing disasters like bushfires amplifies the impacts of inequality, magnifying existing disparities and contributing to additional psychological burdens of grief, trauma and adaptive challenge. There is a need to understand how vulnerability can influence responses to disaster, and to identify factors that develop and foster resilience in the context of increasing disasters and vulnerability.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This protocol will describe the methodology of two scoping reviews: the first will describe the mental health outcomes of vulnerable populations after droughts and bushfires; the second will identify and describe strategies that promote community resilience in vulnerable populations in the context of a disaster. A thorough search will be conducted in relevant databases. Studies will be limited to English language. The reviews will be reported using the 22-item checklist for the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. Methodological quality of the included papers will be assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute's critical appraisal tools.

RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS

The two scoping reviews described in this protocol will have broad relevance in the context of increasing and intensifying disasters, and will especially consider the compounded impact of disaster on vulnerable communities. Findings will contribute directly to the design and implementation of solutions to improve post-disaster health and wellbeing and community resilience.

Drought and all-cause mortality in Nebraska from 1980 to 2014: Time-series analyses by age, sex, race, urbanicity and drought severity

BACKGROUND

Climate change will increase drought duration and severity in many regions around the world, including the Central Plains of North America. However, studies on drought-related health impacts are still sparse. This study aims to explore the potential associations between drought and all-cause mortality in Nebraska from 1980 to 2014.

METHODS

The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) were used to define short-, medium- and long-term drought exposures, respectively. We used a Bayesian zero-inflated censored negative binomial (ZICNB) regression model to estimate the overall association between drought and annual mortality first in the total population and second in stratified sub-populations based on age, race, sex, and the urbanicity class of the counties.

RESULTS

The main findings indicate that there is a slightly negative association between all-cause mortality and all types of droughts in the total population, though the effect is statistically null. The joint-stratified analysis renders significant results for a few sub-groups. White population aged 25-34 and 45-64 in metro counties and 45-54 in non-metro counties were the population more at risk in Nebraska. No positive associations were observed in any race besides white. Black males aged 20-24 and white females older than 85 showed protective effect against drought mainly in metro counties. We also found that more sub-populations had higher rates of mortality with longer-term droughts compared to shorter-term droughts (12-month vs 1- or 6-month timescales), in both metro and non-metro counties, collectively.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that mortality in middle aged white population in Nebraska shows a greater association with drought. Moreover, women aged 45-54 were more affected than men in non-metro counties. With a projected increase in the frequency and severity of drought due to climate change, understanding these relationships between drought and human health will better inform drought mitigation planning to reduce potential impacts.

Drought-heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review

Climate change is drastically altering the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) episodes, which present a new challenge in environmental and socioeconomic sectors. These threats are of particular importance in low-income regions with growing populations, fragile infrastructure, and threatened ecosystems. This review synthesizes emerging progress in the understanding of CDHW patterns in Brazil while providing insights about the impacts on fire occurrence and public health. Evidence is mounting that heatwaves are becoming increasingly linked with droughts in northeastern and southeastern Brazil, the Amazonia, and the Pantanal. In those regions, recent studies have begun to build a better understanding of the physical mechanisms behind CDHW events, such as the soil moisture-atmosphere coupling, promoted by exceptional atmospheric blocking conditions. Results hint at a synergy between CDHW events and high fire activity in the country over the last decades, with the most recent example being the catastrophic 2020 fires in the Pantanal. Moreover, we show that HWs were responsible for increasing mortality and preterm births during record-breaking droughts in southeastern Brazil. This work paves the way for a more in-depth understanding on CDHW events and their impacts, which is crucial to enhance the adaptive capacity of different Brazilian sectors.