Dengue burden in India: recent trends and importance of climatic parameters

Reduced protein-coding transcript diversity in severe dengue emphasises the role of alternative splicing

Dengue fever, a neglected tropical arboviral disease, has emerged as a global health concern in the past decade. Necessitating a nuanced comprehension of the intricate dynamics of host-virus interactions influencing disease severity, we analysed transcriptomic patterns using bulk RNA-seq from 112 age- and gender-matched NS1 antigen-confirmed hospital-admitted dengue patients with varying severity. Severe cases exhibited reduced platelet count, increased lymphocytosis, and neutropenia, indicating a dysregulated immune response. Using bulk RNA-seq, our analysis revealed a minimal overlap between the differentially expressed gene and transcript isoform, with a distinct expression pattern across the disease severity. Severe patients showed enrichment in retained intron and nonsense-mediated decay transcript biotypes, suggesting altered splicing efficiency. Furthermore, an up-regulated programmed cell death, a haemolytic response, and an impaired interferon and antiviral response at the transcript level were observed. We also identified the potential involvement of the RBM39 gene among others in the innate immune response during dengue viral pathogenesis, warranting further investigation. These findings provide valuable insights into potential therapeutic targets, underscoring the importance of exploring transcriptomic landscapes between different disease sub-phenotypes in infectious diseases.

Evidences support that dengue virus can impart broad-spectrum immunity against betacoronaviruses in dengue endemic regions

COVID-19 tended to be less aggressive in dengue endemic regions. Conversely, dengue cases plummeted in dengue endemic zones during the active years of the pandemic (2020-2021). We and others have demonstrated serological cross-reactivity between these two viruses of different families. We further demonstrated that COVID-19 serum samples that were cross-reactive in dengue virus (DV) serological tests, "cross-neutralized" all DV serotypes in Huh7 cells. Here we showed by co-immunoprecipitation (Co-IP) and atomic force microscopy (AFM) imaging that severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-coronavirus (CoV)-2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike (S) protein subunit S1 and S2 monoclonal antibodies can indeed, bind to DV particles. Likewise, DV envelope antibodies (DV E Abs) showed high docking frequency with other human pathogenic beta-CoVs and murine hepatitis virus-1 (MHV-1). SARS-CoV-2 Ab didn't show docking or Co-IP with MHV-1 supporting poor cross-protection among CoVs. DV E Abs showed binding to MHV-1 (AFM, Co-IP, and immunofluorescence) and prepandemic dengue patients' serum samples even "cross-neutralized" MHV-1 plaques in cell culture. Furthermore, dengue serum samples showed marked inhibition potential in a surrogate virus-based competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, used for determining neutralizing Abs against SARS-CoV-2 S protein receptor-binding domain in COVID-19 serum samples. We therefore, provide multiple evidence as to why CoVs are epidemiologically less prevalent in highly dengue endemic regions globally.

Investigating the Clinico-Demographic Characteristics of Dengue Fever and Its Seroprevalence at a Tertiary Care Hospital in Northern India

Background and objective Dengue virus (DENV) is a major global health threat, causing over 50,000 deaths annually. The state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) in India faces significant challenges due to the increasing number of dengue cases detected. This study aimed to assess DENV seropositivity in the Raebareli district of UP, to offer crucial insights into the region's effective control and management strategies. Materials and methods This study, after obtaining approval from the ethics committee, analyzed blood samples of individuals suspected of having dengue at a teaching hospital in rural UP between January and December 2022. To determine the disease's seroprevalence, both dengue NS1 antigen ELISA and dengue IgM Microlisa were conducted. Furthermore, RT-PCR was performed on NS1-positive samples to confirm the serotypes. The collected data were analyzed using Epi Info 7.0. Results Of the 589 suspected dengue cases, 86 (14.60%) tested positive for dengue NS1 and/or IgM. Our findings showed that males (n=330, 56.03%) and adolescents and young adults (n=301, 51.1%) from rural areas (n=523, 88.4%) were predominantly affected. Cases peaked post-monsoon, and platelet levels were notably low in NS1-positive cases. Dengue serotype 2 (DEN-2) was found in all RT-PCR-positive samples. Our results revealed a dengue seroprevalence of 14.60% (n=86), which peaked in post-monsoon months. The higher incidence among males and young adults from rural areas attending the outpatient department highlights the importance of targeted interventions and community surveillance. RT-PCR confirmed the circulation of a single serotype in the region. Conclusions This study contributes crucial insights into dengue's epidemiology and clinical profile and its findings are all the more significant now as India prepares for phase 3 trials of a quadrivalent dengue-virus vaccine in 2024. Adolescent and young adult males have an increased likelihood of acquiring the virus, and this demographic can be prioritized for vaccine trials.

Clinical and seasonal pattern of dengue in a tertiary care hospital of South West India

Background

Dengue is an emerging global viral disease with an increase 30-fold in incidence in the past fifty years. In the past decade it was restricted to only few a states of South and Northern India but in the recent past it has affected almost all the states in India. The objective of this study was to assess the clinical profile, trends and outcome of dengue cases.

Methods

This retrospective record based cross-sectional study was conducted in tertiary hospital, Mangaluru in Southern India. The study population included all dengue positive cases diagnosed either by IgM Capture ELISA or Dengue Non-structural Protein NS1 antigen over a period of five years. Information from pre-recorded case sheets were used for data collection. The data was analyzed using SPSS Version 20. Results from the analysis have been expressed in percentages, means and graphs.

Results

The study included 401 dengue cases. Most cases were in the age range of 20-40 years with a male to female ratio of 3:2. Overall seropositivity rate was 23.94% with High IgM prevalence. Monthly distribution showed a maximum cases were in the months of June and July and minimum were in January and February. Among the study participants, 91.5% of patients recovered completely and 1.7% of patients had died. 6.8% of patients were discharged against medical advice.

Conclusions

Dengue continues to be major public health problem in this part of the globe affecting mainly the working age group. Low seropositivity with High IgM prevelance makes dengue an important differential for febrile illness of vague nature and invokes the need for robust public health response to curb the hyper-endemicity.

Seasonal prediction of the distribution of three major malaria vectors in China: Based on an ecological niche model

Against the backdrop of a global malaria epidemic that remains severe, China has eradicated indigenous malaria but still has to be alert to the risk of external importation. Understanding the distribution of vectors can provide an adequate and reliable basis for the development and implementation of vector control strategies. However, with the decline of malaria prevalence in recent years, the capacity of vector monitoring and identification has been greatly weakened. Here we have used new sampling records, climatic data, and topographic data to establish ecological niche models of the three main malaria vectors in China. The model results accurately identified the current habitat suitability areas for the three species of Anopheles and revealed that in addition to precipitation and temperature as important variables affecting the distribution of Anopheles mosquitoes, topographic variables also influenced the distribution of Anopheles mosquitoes. Anopheles sinensis is the most widespread malaria vector in China, with a wide region from the northeast (Heilongjiang Province) to the southwest (Yunnan Province) suitable for its survival. Suitable habitat areas for Anopheles lesteri are concentrated in the central, eastern, and southern regions of China. The suitable habitat areas of Anopheles minimus are the smallest and are only distributed in the border provinces of southern China. On this basis, we further assessed the seasonal variation in habitat suitability areas for these three major malaria vectors in China. The results of this study provide new and more detailed evidence for vector monitoring. In this new era of imported malaria prevention in China, regular reassessment of the risk of vector transmission is recommended.

Mosquito-borne diseases in India over the past 50 years and their Global Public Health Implications: A Systematic Review

Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) pose a significant public health concern globally, and India, with its unique eco-sociodemographic characteristics, is particularly vulnerable to these diseases. This comprehensive review aims to provide an in-depth overview of MBDs in India, emphasizing their impact and potential implications for global health. The article explores distribution, epidemiology, control or elimination, and economic burden of the prevalent diseases such as malaria, dengue, chikungunya, Japanese encephalitis, and lymphatic filariasis, which collectively contribute to millions of cases annually. It sheds light on their profound effects on morbidity, mortality, and socioeconomic burdens and the potential for international transmission through travel and trade. The challenges and perspectives associated with controlling mosquito populations are highlighted, underscoring the importance of effective public health communication for prevention and early detection. The potential for these diseases to spread beyond national borders is recognized, necessitating a holistic approach to address the challenge. A comprehensive literature search was conducted, covering the past five decades (1972-2022), utilizing databases such as Web of Science, PubMed, and Google Scholar, in addition to in-person library consultations. The literature review analyzed 4,082 articles initially identified through various databases. After screening and eligibility assessment, 252 articles were included for analysis. The review focused on malaria, dengue, chikungunya, Japanese encephalitis, and lymphatic filariasis. The included studies focused on MBDs occurrence in India, while those conducted outside India, lacking statistical analysis, or published before 1970 were excluded. This review provides valuable insights into the status of MBDs in India and underscores the need for concerted efforts to combat these diseases on both national and global scales through consilience.

Dengue Types 1 and 3 Identified in Travelers Returning from Kathmandu, Nepal, during the October 2022 Outbreak Are Related to Strains Recently Identified in India

Phylogenetic analysis of dengue serotypes 1 and 3, which were diagnosed in travelers and Nepalese infected in Kathmandu during the October 2022 outbreak, revealed that both serotypes were clustered closest to the sequences sampled in India. This suggests both serotypes may have originated in India.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever: a growing global menace

Dengue virus is an arthropod-borne virus, transmitted by Aedes aegypti among humans. In this review, we discussed the epidemiology of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) as well as the disease's natural history, cycles of transmission, clinical diagnosis, aetiology, prevention, therapy, and management. A systematic literature search was done by databases such as PubMed and Google Scholar using search terms, 'dengue fever', 'symptoms and causes of dengue fever', 'dengue virus transmission', and 'strategies to control dengue'. We reviewed relevant literature to identify hazards related to DHF and the most recent recommendations for its management and prevention. Clinical signs and symptoms of dengue infection range from mild dengue fever (DF) to potentially lethal conditions like DHF or dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Acute-onset high fever, muscle and joint pain, myalgia, a rash on the skin, hemorrhagic episodes, and circulatory shock are among the most common symptoms. An early diagnosis is vital to lower mortality. As dengue virus infections are self-limiting, but in tropical and subtropical areas, dengue infection has become a public health concern. Hence, developing and executing long-term control policies that can reduce the global burden of DHF is a major issue for public health specialists everywhere.

Burden of dengue, leishmaniasis and lymphatic filariasis in India and its states from 1990-2019: Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD 2019)

Vector-borne diseases such as dengue, leishmaniasis, and lymphatic filariasis, constitute significant sources of illness, disability, and mortality among the poor and vulnerable in many countries around the world, including India. Based on the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study 2019, we analyse the burden of dengue, leishmaniasis, and lymphatic filariasis, in India from 1990 to 2019. Over this period, there was a reduction in the burden of lymphatic filariasis and leishmaniasis. Notably, dengue emerged as the most common vector-borne disease, exhibiting high fatality rate above 15 years of age and the highest DALY within 15-49 age group. Additionally, dengue cases surged substantially between 1990 and 2019. Leishmaniasis related mortality and DALY declined in the year 2019 compared to the year 1990, with high mortality and DALY in the 0-49-year-old age group. For lymphatic filariasis, DALY was more pronounce among those in the 15-49-year age group, which underwent reduction in 2019. Males had a higher burden in other vector-borne diseases than females, although females had a slightly elevated dengue burden. These findings highlight the evolving epidemiological trends related to vector-borne diseases in India, over the last three decades and underline the critical significance of sustained efforts for the elimination and control of vector-borne diseases.

Development and Validation of a Bedside Dengue Severity Score for Predicting Severe Dengue in Children

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a bedside dengue severity score in children less than 12 years for predicting severe dengue disease.

METHODS

We carried out an analysis of data on the clinical and laboratory parameters of patients with confirmed dengue, hospitalized in October, 2019 at our center. A comprehensive patient's score was developed. Predictive models for severity were built using a forward step-wise method. This model was validated on the data of 312 children with dengue admitted during September- October, 2021.

RESULTS

Severe dengue was predicted by the dengue severity score with a sensitivity of 86.75% (95% CI 77.52%-93.19%), specificity of 98.25% (95% CI 95.56-99.52%), a positive predictive value of 95.34% (95% CI 92.18%-97.26%) and a negative predictive value of 94.74% (95% CI 87.16%-97.95%). The overall predictive accuracy was 95.2% (95% CI 92.19%-97.28%).

CONCLUSION

The proposed bedside dengue severity scoring system was found to have good validity. Validating the score in different settings and patient populations is suggested.

Spatial Analysis of Dengue Clusters at Department, Municipality and Local Scales in the Southwest of Colombia, 2014-2019

Dengue is an arbovirus transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes and is one of the 15 main public health problems in the world, including Colombia. Where limited financial resources create a problem for management, there is a need for the department to prioritize target areas for public health implementation. This study focuses on a spatio-temporal analysis to determine the targeted area to manage the public health problems related to dengue cases. To this end, three phases at three different scales were carried out. First, for the departmental scale, four risk clusters were identified in Cauca (RR ≥ 1.49) using the Poisson model, and three clusters were identified through Getis-Ord Gi* hotspots analysis; among them, Patía municipality presented significantly high incidence rates in the time window (2014-2018). Second, on the municipality scale, altitude and minimum temperature were observed to be more relevant than precipitation; considering posterior means, no spatial autocorrelation for the Markov Chain Monte Carlo was found (Moran test ˂ 1.0), and convergence was reached for b₁-b₁₀₅ with 20,000 iterations. Finally, on the local scale, a clustered pattern was observed for dengue cases distribution (nearest neighbour index, NNI = 0.202819) and the accumulated number of pupae (G = 0.70007). Two neighbourhoods showed higher concentrations of both epidemiological and entomological hotspots. In conclusion, the municipality of Patía is in an operational scenario of a high transmission of dengue.

Trends in ELISA-Based Flavivirus IgG Serosurveys: A Systematic Review

Flaviviruses include virus species that are major public health threats worldwide. To determine the immunity landscape of these viruses, seroprevalence studies are often performed using IgG ELISA, which is a simple and rapid alternative to the virus neutralization test. In this review, we aim to describe the trends in flavivirus IgG ELISA-based serosurveys. A systematic literature review using six databases was performed to collate cohort and cross-sectional studies performed on the general population. A total of 204 studies were included in this review. The results show that most studies were performed on dengue virus (DENV), whereas Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) was the least studied. For geographic distribution, serosurveys followed known disease prevalence. Temporally, the number of serosurveys increased after outbreaks and epidemics except for JEV, for which studies were performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns. Commercial kits were more commonly used than in-house assays for DENV, West Nile Virus (WNV), and Zika virus (ZIKV). Overall, most studies employed an indirect ELISA format, and the choice of antigens varied per virus. This review shows that flavivirus epidemiology is related to the regional and temporal distribution of serosurveys. It also highlights that endemicity, cross-reactivities, and kit availabilities affect assay choice in serosurveys.

Correlation of Dengue and Meteorological Factors in Bangladesh: A Public Health Concern

Dengue virus (DENV) is an enveloped, single-stranded RNA virus, a member of the Flaviviridae family (which causes Dengue fever), and an arthropod-transmitted human viral infection. Bangladesh is well known for having some of Asia's most vulnerable Dengue outbreaks, with climate change, its location, and it's dense population serving as the main contributors. For speculation about DENV outbreak characteristics, it is crucial to determine how meteorological factors correlate with the number of cases. This study used five time series models to observe the trend and forecast Dengue cases. Current data-based research has also applied four statistical models to test the relationship between Dengue-positive cases and meteorological parameters. Datasets were used from NASA for meteorological parameters, and daily DENV cases were obtained from the Directorate General of Health Service (DGHS) open-access websites. During the study period, the mean of DENV cases was 882.26 ± 3993.18, ranging between a minimum of 0 to a maximum of 52,636 daily confirmed cases. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient between climatic variables and Dengue incidence indicated that no substantial relationship exists between daily Dengue cases and wind speed, temperature, and surface pressure (Spearman's rho; r = -0.007, p > 0.05; r = 0.085, p > 0.05; and r = -0.086, p > 0.05, respectively). Still, a significant relationship exists between daily Dengue cases and dew point, relative humidity, and rainfall (r = 0.158, p < 0.05; r = 0.175, p < 0.05; and r = 0.138, p < 0.05, respectively). Using the ARIMAX and GA models, the relationship for Dengue cases with wind speed is -666.50 [95% CI: -1711.86 to 378.86] and -953.05 [-2403.46 to 497.36], respectively. A similar negative relation between Dengue cases and wind speed was also determined in the GLM model (IRR = 0.98). Dew point and surface pressure also represented a negative correlation in both ARIMAX and GA models, respectively, but the GLM model showed a positive association. Additionally, temperature and relative humidity showed a positive correlation with Dengue cases (105.71 and 57.39, respectively, in the ARIMAX, 633.86, and 200.03 in the GA model). In contrast, both temperature and relative humidity showed negative relation with Dengue cases in the GLM model. In the Poisson regression model, windspeed has a substantial significant negative connection with Dengue cases in all seasons. Temperature and rainfall are significantly and positively associated with Dengue cases in all seasons. The association between meteorological factors and recent outbreak data is the first study where we are aware of the use of maximum time series models in Bangladesh. Taking comprehensive measures against DENV outbreaks in the future can be possible through these findings, which can help fellow researchers and policymakers.

Weather integrated multiple machine learning models for prediction of dengue prevalence in India

Dengue is a rapidly spreading viral disease transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes. Due to global urbanization and climate change, the number of dengue cases are gradually increasing in recent decades. Hence, an early prediction of dengue continues to be a major concern for public health in countries with high prevalence of dengue. Creating a robust forecast model for the accurate prediction of dengue is a complex task and can be done through various data modelling approaches. In the present study, we have applied vector auto regression, generalized boosted models, support vector regression, and long short-term memory (LSTM) to predict the dengue prevalence in Kerala state of the Indian subcontinent. We consider the number of dengue cases as the target variable and weather variables viz., relative humidity, soil moisture, mean temperature, precipitation, and NINO3.4 as independent variables. Various analytical models have been applied on both datasets and predicted the dengue cases. Among all the models, the LSTM model was outperformed with superior prediction capability (RMSE: 0.345 and R²:0.86) than the other models. However, other models are able to capture the trend of dengue cases but failed in predicting the outbreak periods when compared to LSTM. The findings of this study will be helpful for public health agencies and policymakers to draw appropriate control measures before the onset of dengue. The proposed LSTM model for dengue prediction can be followed by other states of India as well.

Genomic Characterization of Dengue Virus Outbreak in 2022 from Pakistan

Pakistan, a dengue-endemic country, has encountered several outbreaks during the past decade. The current study aimed to explore the serotype and genomic diversity of dengue virus responsible for the 2022 outbreak in Pakistan. From August to October 2022, NS-1 positive blood samples (n = 343) were collected from dengue patients, among which, (85%; n = 293) were positive based on RT-PCR. In terms of gender and age, dengue infection was more prevalent in male patients (63%; n = 184), with more adults (21-30 years; n = 94) being infected. The serotyping results revealed DENV-2 to be the most predominant serotype (62%; n = 183), followed by DENV-1 (37%; n = 109) and DENV-3 (0.32%; n = 1). Moreover, a total of 10 samples (DENV-2; n = 8, DENV-1; n = 2) were subjected to whole-genome sequencing. Among these, four were collected in early 2022, and six were collected between August and October 2022. Phylogenetic analysis of DENV-2 sequenced samples (n = 8) revealed a monophyletic clade of cosmopolitan genotype IVA, which is closely related to sequences from China and Singapore 2018, and DENV-1 samples (n = 2) show genotype III, which is closely related to Pakistan isolates from 2019. We also reported the first whole genome sequence of a coinfection case (DENV1-DENV2) in Pakistan detected through a meta-genome approach. Thus, dengue virus dynamics reported in the current study warrant large-scale genomic surveillance to better respond to future outbreaks.

The nexus between climate change and public health: a global overview with perspectives for Indian cities

Climate change is widely recognized as a major threat to public health. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6), assessing different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), projects that relative to 1850–1900, the global temperature is rising and would exceed 2 °C during the twenty-first century under the high (SSP3-7.0) and very high (SSP5-8.5) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios considered. Populations within tropical and subtropical regions are more likely to experience increased vulnerability towards heat stress. In this study, a summary of some of the important aspects of climate change and human health has been presented. The effects of climate change on India’s energy demand, employment, labor market and benefits have also been highlighted. Finally, we have discussed the national policies implemented or action underway to mitigate climate change and improve public health and have also provided some recommendations to carry forward. The current study overviewing the nexus between climate change and public health has a major aim to provide a perspective towards strengthening the health system in Indian cities.

Epidemiology of dengue in SAARC territory: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Dengue is one of the common arboviral infections and is a public health problem in South East Asia. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the prevalence and distribution of dengue in SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries.

METHODS

The PubMed, PubMed Central, Embase and Scopus databases were searched for relevant studies. Statistical analysis on data extracted from the selected studied was conducted using the Comprehensive Meta-Analysis Software (CMA) version 3 software package. Proportions were used to estimate the outcome with a 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

Across all studies, among cases of suspected dengue, 30.7% were confirmed dengue cases (proportion: 0.307, 95% CI: 0.277-0.339). The seroprevalence of dengue immunoglobulin (Ig)G, IgM or both (IgM and IgG) antibodies and dengue NS1 antigen was 34.6, 34.2, 29.0 and 24.1%, respectively. Among the different strains of dengue, dengue virus (DENV) strains DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3 and DENV-4 accounted for 21.8, 41.2, 14.7 and 6.3% of cases, respectively. The prevalence of dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome was 80.5, 18.2 and 1.5%, respectively. Fever was a commonly reported symptom, and thrombocytopenia was present in 44.7% of cases. Mortality was reported in 1.9% of dengue cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Dengue is a common health problem in South East Asia with high seroprevalence. DENV-2 was found to be the most common strain causing infection, and most dengue cases were dengue fever. In addition, thrombocytopenia was reported in almost half of the dengue cases.

An assessment of remotely sensed environmental variables on Dengue epidemiology in Central India

In recent decades, dengue has been expanding rapidly in the tropical cities. Even though environmental factors and landscape features profoundly impact dengue vector abundance and disease epidemiology, significant gaps exist in understanding the role of local environmental heterogeneity on dengue epidemiology in India. In this study, we assessed the role of remotely sensed climatic factors (rainfall, temperature and humidity) and landscape variables (land use pattern, vegetation and built up density) on dengue incidence (2012–2019) in Bhopal city, Central India. Dengue hotspots in the city were assessed through geographical information system based spatial statistics. Dengue incidence increased from 0.59 cases in 2012 to 9.11 cases in 2019 per 10,000 inhabitants, and wards located in Southern Bhopal were found to be dengue hotspots. Distributed lag non-linear model combined with quasi Poisson regression was used to assess the exposure-response association, relative risk (RR), and delayed effects of environmental factors on dengue incidence. The analysis revealed a non-linear relationship between meteorological variables and dengue cases. The model shows that the risk of dengue cases increases with increasing mean temperature, rainfall and absolute humidity. The highest RR of dengue cases (~2.0) was observed for absolute humidity ≥60 g/m³ with a 5–15 week lag. Rapid urbanization assessed by an increase in the built-up area (a 9.1% increase in 2020 compared to 2014) could also be a key factor driving dengue incidence in Bhopal city. The study sheds important insight into the synergistic effects of both the landscape and climatic factors on the transmission dynamics of dengue. Furthermore, the study provides key baseline information on the climatic variables that can be used in the micro-level dengue prediction models in Bhopal and other cities with similar climatic conditions.

Dengue, a viral disease transmitted by infected Aedes mosquitoes, is a major public health concern globally. In addition to its increased incidence in recent years, dengue is also spreading to new geographical regions. Local environmental factors are known to modify the mosquito vector density that directly impacts dengue virus transmission. Understanding the influence of environmental factors (meteorological conditions and landscape features) on dengue epidemiology in local settings is important for focused dengue intervention. Here, by utilizing dengue incidence and remotely sensed environmental data from 2012–2019, we have assessed the role of environmental factors in driving dengue virus transmission in the city of Bhopal in Central India. During the study period, a 14.5 fold increase in dengue incidence was observed in Bhopal city, which is way higher than the 2.3 fold increase reported at the national level. The risk of dengue virus transmission was higher with higher temperature and absolute humidity. An increase in built-up area, a proxy for urbanization, was found to be another predictor of increased dengue incidence in Bhopal. These findings can provide a stepping-stone for the development of dengue prediction models and the identification of dengue hotspots in order to improve vector control of this disease in cities with similar environmental conditions.

Novel Antiviral Efficacy of Hedyotis diffusa and Artemisia capillaris Extracts against Dengue Virus, Japanese Encephalitis Virus, and Zika Virus Infection and Immunoregulatory Cytokine Signatures

Currently, there are no specific therapeutics for flavivirus infections, including dengue virus (DENV) and Zika virus (ZIKV). In this study, we evaluated extracts from the plants Hedyotis diffusa (HD) and Artemisia capillaris (AC) to determine the antiviral activity against DENV, ZIKV, and Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV). HD and AC demonstrated inhibitory activity against JEV, ZIKV, and DENV replication and reduced viral RNA levels in a dose-responsive manner, with non-cytotoxic concentration ranging from 0.1 to 10 mg/mL. HD and AC had low cytotoxicity to Vero cells, with CC₅₀ values of 33.7 ± 1.6 and 30.3 ± 1.7 mg/mL (mean ± SD), respectively. The anti-flavivirus activity of HD and AC was also consistent in human cell lines, including human glioblastoma (T98G), human chronic myeloid leukemia (K562), and human embryonic kidney (HEK-293T) cells. Viral-infected, HD-treated cells demonstrated downregulation of cytokines including CCR1, CCL26, CCL15, CCL5, IL21, and IL17C. In contrast, CCR1, CCL26, and AIMP1 were elevated following AC treatment in viral-infected cells. Overall, HD and AC plant extracts demonstrated flavivirus replication inhibitory activity, and together with immunoregulatory cytokine signatures, these results suggest that HD and AC possess bioactive compounds that may further be refined as promising candidates for clinical applications.

Economic burden estimation associated with dengue and chikungunya in Gujarat, India

Background

Dengue and chikungunya have been emerging as major vector-borne diseases. The global burden of the diseases is rising as a public health problem. The complexity of disease is governed by multiple constraints including only symptomatic treatment and inflicts heavy social and economic burden on society. The present study is designed to assess the economic burden of dengue and chikungunya infection by calculating cost per patient in Gujarat, India.

Methods

A total of 210 patients were enrolled in the study from Ahmedabad and Kheda district of Gujarat from May 2018 to December 2019 of which 150 had dengue and 60 chikungunya infections, subject to the willingness of participation in the survey. Information on wage loss days, cost associated with medicines, diagnosis, special food and travel cost, etc., for the calculation of the direct and indirect costs associated with dengue and chikungunya were collected from these participants using a structured questionnaire. Informed consent was taken before including any participant in the study.

Results

In the dengue sample, 86 were males (57.3%) and the rest were females, and in the chikungunya sample, 31 were males (51.7%) and the rest females. The median age of the participants with dengue and chikungunya was 18 (p25 to p75: 8 to 26) and 30 (p25 to p75: 21 to 45) years respectively. Median family income was recorded as Rs 15,000 (p25 to p75: 9000 to 25500) and Rs 12,000 (p25 to p75: 9000 to 18500) for the dengue and chikungunya cases, respectively. The average duration of the illness was observed to be higher in chikungunya (median days (P25 to p75): 15 (7-45)) than dengue (median days (P25 to p75): 10 (5-15)). The median indirect cost in the case of dengue was Rs 1,931 (p25 to p75: 300 to 4500) while Rs 2,550 (p25 to p75: 0 to 5250) was observed for chikungunya cases. Two types of direct cost, namely, direct cost related to medical expenses and direct cost related to other expenses were calculated. Direct cost related to medical expenses was observed to be higher in dengue (Md (P25 to p75): Rs 2,450 (400-5000)) than chikungunya (Md (P25 to p75): Rs 1,500 (150-5200)) while indirect cost related to other expenses were comparable between dengue (Md (P25 to p75): Rs 1,575 (1300-2600)) and chikungunya (Md (P25 to p75): Rs 1500 (850-2850)). The average total cost for one dengue episode was estimated to be Rs 6,860 (3700-12525) whereas it was Rs 7,000 (2550-14000) for one episode of Chikungunya.

Conclusions

Overall, patients have to bear high costs while suffering from dengue and chikungunya infections. Furthermore, the duration of illness while suffering from viral diseases also contributes to the substantial economic burden. Improved knowledge about the impact of the cost and the economic burden associated with dengue and chikungunya will help policymakers allocate and appropriate resources accordingly.

Collaboration between meteorology and public health: Predicting the dengue epidemic in Guangzhou, China, by meteorological parameters

Background

Dengue has become an increasing public health threat around the world, and climate conditions have been identified as important factors affecting the transmission of dengue, so this study was aimed to establish a prediction model of dengue epidemic by meteorological methods.

Methods

The dengue case information and meteorological data were collected from Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control and Guangdong Meteorological Bureau, respectively. We used spatio-temporal analysis to characterize dengue epidemics. Spearman correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between lagged meteorological factors and dengue fever cases and determine the maximum lagged correlation coefficient of different meteorological factors. Then, Generalized Additive Models were used to analyze the non-linear influence of lagged meteorological factors on local dengue cases and to predict the number of local dengue cases under different weather conditions.

Results

We described the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of dengue fever cases and found that sporadic single or a small number of imported cases had a very slight influence on the dengue epidemic around. We further created a forecast model based on the comprehensive consideration of influence of lagged 42-day meteorological factors on local dengue cases, and the results showed that the forecast model has a forecast effect of 98.8%, which was verified by the actual incidence of dengue from 2005 to 2016 in Guangzhou.

Conclusion

A forecast model for dengue epidemic was established with good forecast effects and may have a potential application in global dengue endemic areas after modification according to local meteorological conditions. High attention should be paid on sites with concentrated patients for the control of a dengue epidemic.

Climate Change and Cascading Risks from Infectious Disease

Climate change is adversely affecting the burden of infectious disease throughout the world, which is a health security threat. Climate-sensitive infectious disease includes vector-borne diseases such as malaria, whose transmission potential is expected to increase because of enhanced climatic suitability for the mosquito vector in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Climatic suitability for the mosquitoes that can carry dengue, Zika, and chikungunya is also likely to increase, facilitating further increases in the geographic range and longer transmission seasons, and raising concern for expansion of these diseases into temperate zones, particularly under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Early spring temperatures in 2018 seem to have contributed to the early onset and extensive West Nile virus outbreak in Europe, a pathogen expected to expand further beyond its current distribution, due to a warming climate. As for tick-borne diseases, climate change is projected to continue to contribute to the spread of Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis, particularly in North America and Europe. Schistosomiasis is a water-borne disease and public health concern in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia; climate change is anticipated to change its distribution, with both expansions and contractions expected. Other water-borne diseases that cause diarrheal diseases have declined significantly over the last decades owing to socioeconomic development and public health measures but changes in climate can reverse some of these positive developments. Weather and climate events, population movement, land use changes, urbanization, global trade, and other drivers can catalyze a succession of secondary events that can lead to a range of health impacts, including infectious disease outbreaks. These cascading risk pathways of causally connected events can result in large-scale outbreaks and affect society at large. We review climatic and other cascading drivers of infectious disease with projections under different climate change scenarios. Supplementary file1 (MP4 328467 KB).

Muralee NS. Impact of Plantation Induced Forest Degradation on the Outbreak of Emerging Infectious Diseases-Wayanad District, Kerala, India

The world has been facing a pandemic owing to COVID-19. We have also seen the geographic expansion and outbreaks of other emerging infectious diseases (EID) in recent years. This paper investigates the direct and indirect effects of land use land cover change (LULCC) on EID outbreaks in the context of Wayanad District of Kerala, India. Wayanad is in the vulnerable tropical forested region, and it is named as one of the four environmental change hotspots. The focus of this project is mainly three EIDs prevalent in this region: Kyasanur forest disease (KFD), Dengue and Leptospirosis. Our results, based on topographical map, remote sensing and extensive field work, show that the natural forest in Wayanad was replaced with agriculture and forest plantation during 1950-2018. This paper further suggests that encroachment of forest by forest plantation causes the human-animal conflict resulting in the outbreak of KFD cases. Our analysis reveals that a high number of Dengue cases is found in the forested regions of the district and over the adjacent human-made agriculture plantation areas. High and medium number of Leptospirosis cases contain a high portion of land area devoted to paddy cultivation and agricultural plantation. In summary, the results clearly show the linkage between the outbreak of above mentioned EIDs and LULCC in the context of Wayanad district, Kerala. We also discuss in detail the causal pathway involving human-environmental dynamics through which plantation leads to the outbreak of KFD. Replacing forests with plantations poses an alarming threat of disease outbreak in the community.

Molecular Characterization and Identification of Potential Inhibitors for 'E' Protein of Dengue Virus

Dengue is an arthropod-borne acute febrile illness caused by Dengue Virus (DENV), a member of Flaviviridae. Severity of the infection ranges from mild self-limiting illness to severe life-threatening hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS). To date, there is no specific antiviral therapy established to treat the infection. The current study reports the epidemiology of DENV infections and potential inhibitors of DENV 'E' protein. Among the various serotypes, DENV-2 serotype was observed more frequently, followed by DENV-4, DENV-1, and DENV-3. New variants of existing genotypes were observed in DENV-1, 2, and 4 serotypes. Predominantly, the severe form of dengue was attributable to DENV-2 infections, and the incidence was more common in males and pediatric populations. Both the incidence and the disease severity were more common among the residents of non-urban environments. Due to the predominantly self-limiting nature of primary dengue infection and folk medicine practices of non-urban populations, we observed a greater number of secondary dengue cases than primary dengue cases. Hemorrhagic manifestations were more in secondary dengue in particularly in the pediatric group. Through different computational methods, ligands RGBLD1, RGBLD2, RGBLD3, and RGBLD4 are proposed as potential inhibitors in silico against DENV-1, -2, -3, and -4 serotypes.

Social and housing indicators of dengue and chikungunya in Indian adults aged 45 and above: Analysis of a nationally representative survey (2017-18)

Background

Dengue and chikungunya (CHIKV) are the two major vector-borne diseases of serious public health concern in India. Studies on socioeconomic and housing determinants of dengue and CHIKV at a pan-India level are lacking. Here, we took advantage of the recently carried out Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI) carried out across all the states and Union Territories of India to study the social indicators of dengue and CHIKV in India.

Methods

LASI-1 (2017-2018) data on the self-reported period prevalence of dengue and CHIKV from 70,932 respondents aged ≥45 years were used for this analysis. The state-wise distribution of dengue and CHIKV was mapped. Prevalence was estimated for each study variable, and the difference was compared using the χ2 test. The adjusted odds ratios (AOR) of the socioeconomic and housing variables for dengue and CHIKV were estimated using the multiple logistic regression model.

Results

Urban residence is the major socio-economic indicator of dengue and CHIKV (dengue AOR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.18-2.11; CHIKV AOR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.36-2.49). The other notable indicator is wealth; rich respondents have higher odds of dengue and CHIKV. Adults older than 54 years and those with high school education and above are associated with a lower likelihood of dengue and CHIKV. In addition, CHIKV is associated with scheduled and forward castes, households with improper toilet facilities, open defecation, and kutcha house type.

Conclusions

Despite the limitation that the data is only from adults ≥ 45, this analysis provides important insights into the socioeconomic and housing variables associated with higher odds of dengue and CHIKV in India. Understanding these determinants may assist in the national planning of prevention and control strategies for dengue and CHIKV.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13690-022-00868-5.

Towards Integrated Management of Dengue in Mumbai

With increasing urbanisation, the dengue disease burden is on the rise in India, especially in large cities such as Mumbai. Current dengue surveillance in Mumbai includes municipal corporation carrying out specific activities to reduce mosquito breeding sites and the use of insecticides to suppress the adult mosquito populations. Clinical cases remain either underreported or misreported due to the restriction to government clinics, missing the large private health care sector. There is a need for an integrated approach to manage dengue outbreaks in Mumbai. There are various novel strategies available for use that can be utilised to improve disease detection, mosquito surveillance, and control of mosquito-borne diseases. These novel technologies are discussed in this manuscript. Given the complex ecosystem of mosquito-borne diseases in Mumbai, integrating data obtained from these technologies would support the ongoing mosquito control measures in Mumbai.

Optimization of Flow-Cytometry Based Assay for Measuring Neutralizing Antibody Responses against Each of the Four Dengue Virus Serotypes

Dengue is an important public health problem worldwide, with India contributing nearly a third of global dengue disease burden. The measurement of neutralizing antibody responses is critical for understanding dengue pathophysiology, vaccine development and evaluation. Historically, dengue virus neutralization titers were measured using plaque reduction neutralization tests (PRNTs), which were later adapted to focus reduction neutralization tests (FRNTs). Given the slow and laborious nature of both these assays, there has been interest in adapting a high-throughput flow cytometry based neutralization assay. However, flow cytometry based assays typically underestimate neutralization titers, and in situations where the titers are low they can even fail to detect neutralization activity. In this study, by evaluating graded numbers of input Vero cell numbers and viral inoculum, we optimized the flow cytometry based neutralization assay in such a way that it is sensitive and scores titers that are in concordance with focus reduction neutralization tests for each of the four dengue virus serotypes (p < 0.0001). Given that dengue is a global public health concern, and several research groups are making efforts to understand its pathophysiology and accelerate vaccine development and evaluation both in India and worldwide, our findings have timely significance for facilitating these efforts.

Dengue: A Neglected Disease of Concern

Background

Dengue fever, more prevalent in Asia, is a highly neglected vector-borne disease. It has a varied presentation ranging from common fever to atypical presentation as encephalitis. This study aimed to analyze the demographic and clinical profile of dengue patients admitted to a tertiary care center in Tamilnadu.

Methodology

This retrospective study was performed by collecting patient data from the medical records department for the years 2012 to 2014. A total of 150 patients with 50 patients from each year were selected. The patient’s demographic data, clinical profile, management, and outcome were noted. Patients were divided into three groups as per the World Health Organization’s 2009 classification.

Results

Most dengue cases occurred from October to December (70.7%). The number of male and female patients was almost equal (77 [51.3%] and 73 [48.7%], respectively). The middle-aged group (21-40 years) was commonly affected (54%). The mean age was 29 ± 13.20 years. Fever was the most common symptom (100%), followed by lethargy (81.3%) and myalgia (60.7%). Overall, 10% of patients had comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, and ischemic heart disease. Moreover, 22.7% of patients had dengue with warning signs, and severe dengue was seen in 19.3% of patients. A significant difference was noted in the total count, comorbidities, serositis, and the duration of hospitalization between the groups. No mortality was recorded in the study population.

Conclusions

Dengue is very common in the middle-aged group. Patients with severe dengue had significant leucopenia, several comorbidities, and serositis. The mortality can be reduced to <1% and even zero in severe dengue according to our study with close monitoring and supportive care.

Pseudobasophilia as a Screening Tool in Dengue: A Single Center Study

Objectives  Proper serological testing for the definite diagnosis of dengue is costly and may not be easily available in a resource-limited setting. Hematological parameters can help in the early identification of dengue cases. This study aims to evaluate the occurrence and utility of pseudobasophilia in identifying dengue-affected patients.

Materials and Methods  This retrospective cross-sectional study included 1,304 dengue cases confirmed by serology and 1,044 dengue serology negative acute febrile illness cases as controls. Complete blood count (CBC) values of the first EDTA (ethylenediamine tetraacetic acid) blood sample from automated hematology analyzers were reviewed. The hematological parameters in the dengue and control groups were compared and the variation of these parameters with the day of fever was also analyzed.

Statistical Analysis  Mann-Whitney’s test, Kruskal-Wallis test, and Fisher’s exact test were used for statistical analysis. A p -value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant for all tests.

Results  There was a statistically significant variation between dengue cases and controls for hematocrit, platelet count, mean platelet volume, total white blood cell count, and absolute basophil count. The dengue group had a higher hematocrit from day 2 to day 10, platelet count ≤ 100,000/µL from day 4 to day 9, higher mean platelet volume from day 2 to day 7, leucopenia from day 3 to day 5, and higher absolute basophil count from day 2 to day 10. Interestingly, pseudobasophilia was seen in 533 (40.87%) of dengue cases and only 3 (0.28%) of the controls. Pseudobasophilia was also observed to have an increasing trend to the day of fever.

Conclusion  Pseudobasophilia along with other CBC parameters is useful and cost effective for the early identification of dengue. This can prompt early investigations and supportive treatment leading to improved clinical outcomes.

Dengue virus: epidemiology, biology, and disease aetiology

Dengue is a vector-borne viral disease caused by the flavivirus dengue virus (DENV). Approximately 400 million cases and 22 000 deaths occur due to dengue worldwide each year. It has been reported in more than 100 countries in tropical and subtropical regions. A positive-stranded enveloped RNA virus (DENV) is principally transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. It has four antigenically distinct serotypes, DENV-1 to DENV-4, with different genotypes and three structural proteins and seven non-structural proteins. Clinical symptoms of dengue range from mild fever to severe dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS), with thrombocytopenia, leucopenia, and increased vascular permeability. Although primary infection causes activation of immune responses against DENV serotypes, the severity of the disease is enhanced via heterotypic infection by various serotypes as well as antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). The first licensed DENV vaccine was tetravalent CYD Denvaxia, but it has not been approved in all countries. The lack of a suitable animal model, a proper mechanistic study in pathogenesis, and ADE are the main hindrances in vaccine development. This review summarizes the current knowledge on DENV epidemiology, biology, and disease aetiology in the context of prevention and protection from dengue virus disease.

Early Predictors of Mortality in Children with Severe Dengue Fever: A Prospective Study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to identify early predictors of mortality in children with severe dengue fever admitted to pediatric intensive care unit (PICU).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All consecutive children with laboratory-confirmed severe dengue fever were enrolled in this prospective observational study. Besides demographic data, disease severity and organ dysfunction scores, laboratory investigations and interventions are done in PICU were recorded and analyzed.

RESULTS

During the study period of 42 months, 172 patients with dengue fever were admitted to PICU. A total of 78 (45.3%) patients with severe dengue fever were included and analyzed. There were 20 (25.6%) deaths. There were significant differences in disease severity and organ dysfunction scores, transaminases, blood lactate level and serum creatinine between survivors and nonsurvivors. A significantly higher number of nonsurvivors required interventions in first 24 hours of admission. Platelet counts (P value 0.22) and hematocrit (P value 0.47) were not statistically different in 2 groups. There was a significantly high vasopressor-inotrope score (VIS) (<0.001) and positive fluid balance >10% (0.002) in nonsurvivors. Multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis identified serum glutamic pyruvic transaminases (≥ 284 IU/L; odds ratio [OR] 1.002, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.001-1.003), blood lactate level (≥2.73 mmol/L; OR 2.08, 95% CI: 1.354-3.202), Pediatric Risk of Mortality score at 12 hours (≥14.5; OR 1.35, 95% CI: 1.077-1.693), VIS (≥22.5, OR 1.129, 95% CI: 1.059-1.204) and positive fluid balance >10% (OR 22.937, 95% CI: 2.393-219.84) at 24 hours of admission as independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

Disease severity, hyperlactatemia at admission, need for multiple vasoactive drugs and positive fluid balance are predictors of mortality in severe dengue infection in children admitted to PICU.

Antecedent infections in Guillain-Barré syndrome patients from south India

Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is the commonest post-infectious inflammatory peripheral neuropathy with undiscerned aetiology. The commonly reported antecedent infections implicated in India include Campylobacter jejuni, chikungunya, dengue, and Japanese encephalitis (JE). In this study from south India, we investigated the role of these four agents in triggering GBS. This case-control study was performed on 150 treatment-naive patients with GBS and 150 age and sex-matched controls from the same community. IgM immunoreactivity for C. jejuni, chikungunya, and dengue was detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in serum of patients with GBS and control subjects. Immunoreactivity against JE was detected in serum as well as cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) from patients (n = 150) and orthopaedic control (n = 45) subjects. The immunoreactivity against infections was compared between demyelinating and axonal subtypes of GBS. Overall, 119/150 patients with GBS had serological evidence of antecedent infection. Amongst those with evidence of antecedent infection, 24 (16%), 8 (5%), and 9 (6%) patients were exclusively immunoreactive to chikungunya, JE, and C. jejuni, respectively. In the remaining patients (78/119), immunoreactivity to multiple pathogens was noted. Immunoreactivity to C. jejuni infection was found in 32% of GBS patients compared to 2.7% controls (P < .001), whereas to chikungunya virus was reported in 66.7% of patients with GBS compared to 44.7% controls (P = .006). Anti-dengue immunoreactivity was significantly associated with the demyelinating subtype of GBS. Patients positive for JE IgM (CSF) manifested demyelinating electrophysiology. In this large case-control study, immunoreactivity against multiple infectious agents was observed in a subset of patients. Chikungunya was the commonest antecedent infection, followed by C. jejuni.

Severe ocular and adnexal complications in dengue hemorrhagic fever: A report of 29 eyes

Purpose:

To describe a series of sight-threatening ocular and adnexal involvement associated with dengue hemorrhagic fever and their treatment options.

Methods:

Retrospective, interventional, non-comparative case series. Medical records of patients who presented with ocular symptoms attributed to dengue hemorrhagic fever were reviewed. Demography, presenting features, and treatment outcomes were recorded. Outcome measures assessed included globe salvage, vision salvage, and visual improvement. The outcome was deemed as favorable if vision salvage was possible and unfavorable if the vision was lost.

Results:

Twenty-nine eyes of 23 patients were included. Bilateral ocular involvement was seen in 6 (26%) patients. The mean age was 37.62 ± 18.68 years (range: 14 to 81 years). Coexistent diabetes mellitus and enteric fever were present in three patients. History of blood transfusion was present in nine (40%) and thrombocytopenia in eight (35%) patients at the time of presentation with ocular complaints. Presenting features included endophthalmitis in 11 (38%), panophthalmitis in 10 (35%), orbital cellulitis with panophthalmitis in four (14%), isolated corneal or scleral melt in three (10%), and orbital hemorrhage with panophthalmitis in one (3%) patient. Globe salvage was achieved in 21/29 eyes (72.4%), vision salvage in 6/29 eyes (20.68%), and improvement in visual acuity was noted in 5/29 eyes (17.24%). Logistic regression analysis revealed no significant effect of any clinical-microbiological factors on globe salvage, vision salvage, and visual improvement. However, visual improvement and globe salvage were possible in eyes that underwent early endoscopic vitrectomy.

Conclusion:

Dengue fever can present with sight-threatening ocular and adnexal inflammation resulting in endophthalmitis and panophthalmitis, orbital cellulitis, corneal and scleral melt, and orbital hemorrhage. Early vitrectomy may improve vision and globe salvage in cases with significant vitritis.

Rising Pediatric Morbidity and Mortality in the Developing World

Pediatric morbidity and mortality are on the rise in certain regions of the world specifically the low-income countries where no goals are being met in this regard. In comparison to the developed countries, the rate of decline in morbidity and mortality is dawdling. Disease trends show that there is a resurgence of diseases that are already major contributors to this healthcare crisis (big players like pneumonia, malaria, and meningitis), whereas no significant decrease is being noted in the others. Seasonal and cyclical trends along with other factors such as antibiotic resistance and deficient vaccination coverage in the low socioeconomic class (due to decreased availability or lack of awareness) can be counted as major precipitating factors and policies should be aimed towards rectification.

Cost analysis of dengue from a State in south India

Background & objectives:

Improved dengue cost estimates offer the potential to provide a baseline measure to determine the cost-effectiveness of interventions. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost of dengue prevention, treatment and fatalities in Kerala, India, over a period of one year.

Methods:

The study was done in Kerala, a southern State in India. Costing of treatment was done from a family perspective. It was found by primary data collection in a sample of 83 dengue patients from Thiruvananthapuram district and estimated for Kerala using the reported number of cases in 2016. Costing of prevention was done from the government perspective for the entire State. In-depth interviews with State programme officers and experts in the field were conducted. The present value of lifetime earnings was used to value lives.

Results:

The cost of treatment of dengue in the State was ₹137 milion (2.16 million US$). The cost of prevention in the State was ₹535 million (8.3 million US$). The cost of fatalities was the highest among costs at ₹1760 million (27.7 million US$). US$ 38 million was the least possible estimate of total cost of dengue. The total out-of-pocket spending (OOPS) of >60 yr was significantly (P<0.05) higher than other age groups. The total OOPS was significantly (P<0.001) higher in private sector compared to public.

Interpretation & conclusions:

Although deaths due to dengue were few, the cost of fatalities was 12 times more than the cost of treatment and three times the cost of prevention. Focusing on mortality reduction and disease prevention in elderly would be beneficial.

Thrombocytopenia in malaria patients from an arid region of Western Rajasthan (India)

Context

The arid climate of Western Rajasthan is challenging for malaria transmission, with the number of cases correlating directly with the annual rainfall pattern. Moreover, >90% of the cases in this region are caused by Plasmodium vivax, which has recently been shown to cause a similar degree of thrombocytopenia as Plasmodium falciparum.

Aims and Objectives

The aim of the study was to determine the degree of thrombocytopenia in malaria patients and its association with different species of malaria in this region with an unstable malaria epidemiology.

Materials and Methods

This retrospective study was conducted on all microbiologically confirmed malaria patients with documented platelet counts from August 2017 to October 2018. Microbiological diagnosis was established by rapid diagnostic tests and peripheral blood film examination. Platelet counts were used to assess the degree of thrombocytopenia.

Results

A total of 130 cases were included in the study, of which 118 (91%) were caused by P. vivax, while the rest 12 (9%) were caused by P. falciparum. Thrombocytopenia was present in 108 (83%) cases, and the mean values of platelets in thrombocytopenic patients with P. vivax and P. falciparum infection were 72600/μL and 48500/μL, respectively. Although P. falciparum infection was significantly associated with severe thrombocytopenia (odds ratio: 4.7, [95% confidence interval 1.3-16.1]), extremely low platelet counts (n = 5) warranting platelet transfusions (n = 1) were seen only in P. vivax cases. Only one patient required platelet transfusions in these patients suggesting good tolerance to thrombocytopenia.

Conclusions

Avoiding unnecessary transfusions in febrile thrombocytopenic patients with an established malaria diagnosis can help in reducing transfusion-transmitted infections.

Current Understanding of the Pathogenesis of Dengue Virus Infection

The pathogenesis of dengue virus infection is attributed to complex interplay between virus, host genes and host immune response. Host factors such as antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), memory cross-reactive T cells, anti-DENV NS1 antibodies, autoimmunity as well as genetic factors are major determinants of disease susceptibility. NS1 protein and anti-DENV NS1 antibodies were believed to be responsible for pathogenesis of severe dengue. The cytokine response of cross-reactive CD4+ T cells might be altered by the sequential infection with different DENV serotypes, leading to further elevation of pro-inflammatory cytokines contributing a detrimental immune response. Fcγ receptor-mediated antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) results in release of cytokines from immune cells leading to vascular endothelial cell dysfunction and increased vascular permeability. Genomic variation of dengue virus and subgenomic flavivirus RNA (sfRNA) suppressing host immune response are viral determinants of disease severity. Dengue infection can lead to the generation of autoantibodies against DENV NS1antigen, DENV prM, and E proteins, which can cross-react with several self-antigens such as plasminogen, integrin, and platelet cells. Apart from viral factors, several host genetic factors and gene polymorphisms also have a role to play in pathogenesis of DENV infection. This review article highlights the various factors responsible for the pathogenesis of dengue and also highlights the recent advances in the field related to biomarkers which can be used in future for predicting severe disease outcome.

Are Vulnerable Communities Thoroughly Informed on Mosquito Bio-Ecology and Burden?

Mosquitoes account for a significant burden of morbidity and mortality globally. Despite evidence of (1) imminent anthropogenic climate and environmental changes, (2) vector-pathogen spatio-temporal dynamics and (3) emerging and re-emerging mosquito borne infections, public knowledge on mosquito bio-ecology remain scant. In particular, knowledge, attitude and practices (KAPs) on mosquitoes are often neglected despite otherwise expensive remedial efforts against consequent infections and other indirect effects associated with disease burden. To gather baseline KAPs that identify gaps for optimising vector-borne disease control, we surveyed communities across endemic and non-endemic malaria sub-districts (Botswana). The study revealed limited knowledge of mosquitoes and their infections uniformly across endemic and non-endemic areas. In addition, a significant proportion of respondents were concerned about mosquito burdens, although their level of personal, indoor and environmental protection practices varied significantly across sub-districts. Given the limited knowledge displayed by the communities, this study facilitates bridging KAP gaps to minimise disease burdens by strengthening public education. Furthermore, it provides a baseline for future studies in mosquito bio-ecology and desirable control practices across differential spheres of the rural-urban lifestyle, with implications for enhanced livelihoods as a consequence of improved public health.

Role of Platelet Cytokines in Dengue Virus Infection

Platelets are anucleated blood cells derived from bone marrow megakaryocytes and play a crucial role in hemostasis and thrombosis. Platelets contain specialized storage organelles, called alpha-granules, contents of which are rich in cytokines such as C-X-C Motif Chemokine Ligand (CXCL) 1/4/7, (C-C motif) ligand (CCL) 5/3, CXCL8 (also called as interleukin 8, IL-8), and transforming growth factor β (TGF-β). Activation of platelets lead to degranulation and release of contents into the plasma. Platelet activation is a common event in many viral infections including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), H1N1 influenza, Hepatitis C virus (HCV), Ebola virus (EBV), and Dengue virus (DENV). The cytokines CXCL8, CCL5 (also known as Regulated on Activation, Normal T Expressed and Secreted, RANTES), tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α), CXCL1/5 and CCL3 released, promote development of a pro-inflammatory state along with the recruitment of other immune cells to the site of infection. Platelets also interact with Monocytes and Neutrophils and facilitate their activation to release different cytokines which further enhances inflammation. Upon activation, platelets also secrete factors such as CXCL4 (also known as platelet factor, PF4), CCL5 and fibrinopeptides which are critical regulators of replication and propagation of several viruses in the host. Studies suggest that CXCL4 can both inhibit as well as enhance HIV1 infection. Data from our lab show that CXCL4 inhibits interferon (IFN) pathway and promotes DENV replication in monocytes in vitro and in patients significantly. Inhibition of CXCL4 mediated signaling results in increased IFN production and suppressed DENV and JEV replication in monocytes. In this review, we discuss the role of platelets in viral disease progression with a focus on dengue infection.

High-Throughput RNA Sequencing Analysis of Plasma Samples Reveals Circulating microRNA Signatures with Biomarker Potential in Dengue Disease Progression

The circulating microRNA (miRNA) profile has been widely used for identifying potential biomarkers against viral infections. However, data on circulating microRNA expression patterns in dengue patients are scanty. Considering the impact of severity caused by dengue infection, circulating miRNA profiles in plasma of dengue patients may prove to be valuable for developing early prognostic markers for the disease severity. Here, we described an in-depth analytical study of small RNA sequencing data obtained from the plasma of 39 dengue patients. Integrating bioinformatics and in vitro studies, we identified differentially expressed miRNAs (DEMs) (log2 fold change ≥1.5, P < 0.05) associated with dengue disease progression. In comparing miRNA expression pattern with the follow-up samples, nine miRNAs were found to exhibit an altered expression that could distinguish between severe dengue and the convalescent patients. To understand the abundance and specificity of the DEMs in the context of dengue infection and disease progression, eight top-hit DEMs were further validated in the dengue virus-infected cell lines as well as in the patient's plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) using the quantitative reverse transcription-PCR (qRT-PCR) method. Importantly, receiver operating curve analysis further confirmed that the plasma expression pattern of hsa-miR-122-5p could differentiate between different stages of dengue infection (area under the concentration-time curve [AUC] = 0.792), and dengue-negative patients with other febrile illnesses (AUC = 0.984). The in silico analysis of DEM target genes suggested an enrichment of the pathways associated with metabolism and inflammation. Our study gives a global view of miRNA expression in the plasma from dengue patients and provides a precious resource of candidate miRNAs involved in dengue infection and disease progression.IMPORTANCE Dengue virus (DENV) infection usually causes dengue fever (DF) with flu-like illness affecting infants, young children, and adults. The DF occasionally evolves into a potentially lethal complication called dengue severe (DS) leading to a rapid fall in platelet count along with plasma leakage, fluid accumulation, respiratory distress, and severe bleeding. The diverse clinical spectrum of dengue disease, as well as its significant similarity to other febrile viral illnesses, makes early identification more challenging in this high-risk group. microRNAs (miRNAs) are small (∼19 to 21 nucleotides [nt] in length), noncoding RNAs, extremely stable and easily detectable in the plasma; thus, they have potential as biomarkers for diagnosing and monitoring human diseases. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of miRNAs circulating in plasma of dengue virus-infected patients and identifies the miRNA signatures that have biomarker potential for dengue infection and disease progression.

Modeling and prediction of dengue occurrences in Kolkata, India, based on climate factors

Dengue is one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases in India, particularly in Kolkata and its neighbouring districts. Dengue viruses have infected several citizens of Kolkata since 2012 and it is amplifying every year. It has been derived from earlier studies that certain meteorological variables and climate change play a significant role in the spread and amplification of dengue infections in different parts of the globe. In this study, our primary objective is to identify the relative contribution of the putative drivers responsible for dengue occurrences in Kolkata and project dengue incidences with respect to the future climate change. The regression model was developed using maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity and rainfall as key meteorological factors on the basis of statistically significant cross-correlation coefficient values to predict dengue cases. Finally, climate variables from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for South Asia region were input into the statistical model to project the occurrences of dengue infections under different climate scenarios such as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). It has been estimated that from 2020 to 2100, dengue cases will be higher from September to November with more cases in RCP8.5 (872 cases per year) than RCP4.5 (531 cases per year). The present research further concludes that from December to February, RCP8.5 leads to suitable warmer weather conditions essential for the survival and multiplication of dengue pathogens resulting more than two times dengue cases in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5. Furthermore, the results obtained will be useful in developing early warning systems and provide important evidence for dengue control policy-making and public health intervention.

Diagnostic dilemma in a case of Salmonella Typhi sacroiliitis

Sacroiliitis is a rare complication of enteric fever, seen in <1% of the cases and its concomitant presence with hepatitis has been reported only once. Incorrect or delayed diagnosis of enteric fever may lead to serious complications. Here, we present a complicated case of enteric fever in a 15 years old female who was misdiagnosed elsewhere to be a case of dengue fever owing to thrombocytopenia at presentation along with a weak positive dengue IgM immunochromatography test. The patient eventually developed a rare combination of complications (sacroiliitis, hepatitis, ascites and pleural effusion) and was transferred to our hospital where specific antimicrobial treatment was instituted after isolation of Salmonella Typhi from the clinical samples. This case demonstrates the importance of establishing the correct diagnosis by optimum utilization of the diagnostic services at the time of admission to prevent potentially life threatening complications in an otherwise treatable condition.

Wolbachia: a possible weapon for controlling dengue in Nepal

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral infectious disease, causes a high morbidity and mortality in tropical and subtropical areas of the world. In Nepal, the first case of dengue was reported in 2004 followed by frequent outbreaks in subsequent years, with the largest being in 2019 taking the death toll of six. It is reported that the number of dengue fever cases are soaring in Nepal spreading from the plains to more hilly regions. This might have serious public health implications in the future when combined with other factors, such as: global warming, lack of early detection and treatment of dengue, lack of diagnostic facilities, poor healthcare systems and mosquito control strategies. Nepal, thus, needs a cost-effective mosquito control strategy for the prevention and control of dengue. The Wolbachia-mediated biological method of the dengue control strategy is novel, economic, and environment-friendly. It has been successfully trialed in several areas of dengue-prone countries of the world, including Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam etc. resulting in significant reductions in dengue incidence. Given the lack of effective vector control strategy and weak economic condition of the country along with the persistence of climate and environment conditions that favors the host (Aedes mosquito) for Wolbachia, this approach can be a promising option to control dengue in Nepal.

Climate change and dengue risk in central region of Thailand

Dengue poses a huge public health threat. It places physical and financial burden on individuals affected, family, and national health systems. This descriptive study aimed for two specific objectives; to investigate the weather effects on dengue incidence and to estimate level of risk in the central region of Thailand. It utilized a 10-year population level dengue morbidity data and meteorological data from 2007 to 2016. Kriging method was used to interpolate a weighted risk factor upon a 5-point risk estimate was developed for estimating area risk on a 5-point scale. The findings showed that 2 out of 16 provinces (12.5%) are strong to very strong risk areas for dengue, including Bangkok and Nonthaburi provinces. The study revealed that the impact of La Niña and El Niño on increased dengue incidence and risk level in Bangkok. We recommend further studies to establish intersections of dengue disease and social determinants of health.

Outbreaks of dengue in Central India in 2016: Clinical, laboratory & epidemiological study

Background & objectives:

Dengue virus (DENV) causes outbreaks and sporadic cases in tropical and subtropical countries. Documenting intricacies of DEN outbreaks is important for future interventions. The objective of this study was to report clinical, laboratory and epidemiological features of DEN outbreaks reported in different districts of Central India in 2016.

Methods:

In 2016, outbreaks (n=4) suspected of DEN were investigated by rapid response team. Door-to-door fever and entomological surveys were conducted. Blood samples were collected and tested using NS1 or IgM ELISA; real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction was done to identify serotypes of DEN virus (DENV). NS1-positive samples were tested for the presence of IgG by ELISA. Clinical and demographic data were collected and analyzed.

Results:

Outbreaks occurred in both urban and rural areas in monsoon season and Aedes aegypti was identified as the vector. Fever, chills, headache and myalgia were the major symptoms; no fatality was recorded. Of the 268 DEN suspects, 135 (50.4%) were found serologically positive. DEN positivity was higher (n=75; 55.56%) among males and in the age group of 16-45 yr (n=78; 57.8%). DENV 3 followed by DENV 2 were detected as the major responsible serotypes. High attack rates (up to 38/1000) and low cumulative IgG prevalence (14.9%) were recorded in rural areas.

Interpretation & conclusions:

Our study showed that DENV 3 was the major serotype responsible for outbreaks that occurred in monsoon. High attack rates and lower number of secondary infections in rural areas indicated that DENV is emerging in rural parts of Central India. Early diagnosis at local level and timely intervention by mosquito control activities are needed to avoid such outbreaks in future.

Clinical profile and atypical manifestation of dengue fever cases between 2011 and 2018 in Chennai, India

Introduction:

Dengue fever is a common mosquito-borne viral disease which has reached alarming size in the past few years. It is endemic in more than 100 countries and significant differences were found in clinical profile and atypical manifestation.

Aim of the Study:

A retrospective observational study of clinical profile and atypical manifestations in patients with dengue fever.

Materials and Methods:

Serum samples were collected from clinically suspected cases of dengue fever and it was confirmed by NS1 antigen, IgM, and IgG antibody by ELISA. Clinical details and atypical manifestations were recorded.

Observation:

During the study period, a total of 2502 patients were suspected to have dengue infection, of which 464 (18.5%) samples were found to be positive for dengue viral infection. A majority of the cases were males [268 (57%)] when compared with females [196 (42%)]. Fever was the most common clinical presentation seen in all the patients, followed by headache (78.4%), myalgia (61%), body pain (49.3%), vomiting (40%), joint pain (31.5%), dry cough (19%), nausea (14%), abdominal pain (8%), diarrhea (5.6%), retro-orbital pain (04%), burning micturition (2.4%), and rashes (0.6%). Among atypical manifestations, hepatomegaly [32 (7%)] was the most common, followed by splenomegaly [23 (5%)], bradycardia [18 (4%)], meningitis [6 (1.2%)], hemoptysis [5 (1%)], acalculous cholecystitis [4 (0.8%)], and acute pancreatitis [2 (0.4%)]. The study of hematological parameters showed thrombocytopenia was present in 179 (38.5%) patients, followed by leukopenia [77 (17%)] and raised hematocrit [29 (6.2%)].

Conclusion:

During ongoing epidemics, the clinical profile and atypical manifestations in clinically suspected dengue patients should be investigated early so that severe forms can be treated promptly.

Burden of Dengue with Related Entomological and Climatic Characteristics in Surat City, Gujarat, India, 2011-2016: An Analysis of Surveillance Data

We estimated the incidence of laboratory-confirmed dengue patients for Surat city, India, using surveillance data from 2011 to 2016 and described the related entomological indices and climatic factors. There was a rise in incidence from 1.5 to 17.6 per 100,000 population, as the numbers of notified cases have increased because of better surveillance system. The case notification was 1.3 times higher for the public sector than the private sector. The larval indices were below the transmission level (House index, Breteau index < 1%). The median age of dengue patients was 20 years (IQR: 14-28), with a male to female ratio of 1.6:1. Five peripheral vector control units contributed to 1,013 (41.4%) confirmed cases with rising incidence in other units also. The number of dengue patients peaked during post-monsoon. Spearman's correlation of vector density with humidity (r _s = 0.556), rainfall (r _s = 0.644), and number of cases (r _s = 0.708) suggested climate favorable for vector breeding. There is a good system of public-private coordination for dengue surveillance. However, there is a need to reassess the vector indices threshold for transmission in the city.

Lag effect of climatic variables on dengue burden in India

Dengue is a widespread vector-borne disease believed to affect between 100 and 390 million people every year. The interaction between vector, host and pathogen is influenced by various climatic factors and the relationship between dengue and climatic conditions has been poorly explored in India. This study explores the relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and dengue cases in India. Additionally, distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the delayed effects of climatic factors on dengue cases. The weekly dengue cases reported by the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program (IDSP) over India during the period 2010-2017 were analysed. The study shows that dengue cases usually follow a seasonal pattern, with most cases reported in August and September. Both temperature and rainfall were positively associated with the number of dengue cases. The precipitation shows the higher transmission risk of dengue was observed between 8 and 15 weeks of lag. The highest relative risk (RR) of dengue was observed at 60 mm rainfall with a 12-week lag period when compared with 40 and 80 mm rainfall. The RR of dengue tends to increase with increasing mean temperature above 24 °C. The largest transmission risk of dengue was observed at 30 °C with a 0-3 weeks of lag. Similarly, the transmission risk increases more than twofold when the minimum temperature reaches 26 °C with a 2-week lag period. The dengue cases and El Niño were positively correlated with a 3-6 months lag period. The significant correlation observed between the IOD and dengue cases was shown for a 0-2 months lag period.