Extinction risk from climate change

Bottom-up effects drive the dynamic of an Antarctic seabird predator-prey system

Understanding how populations respond to variability in environmental conditions and interspecific interactions is one of the biggest challenges of population ecology, particularly in the context of global change. Although many studies have investigated population responses to climate change, very few have explicitly integrated interspecific relationships when studying these responses. In this study, we aimed to understand the combined effects of interspecific interactions and environmental conditions on the demographic parameters of a prey-predator system of three sympatric seabird populations breeding in Antarctica: the south polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki) and its two main preys during the breeding season, the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) and the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We built a two-species integrated population model (IPM) with 31 years of capture-recapture and count data and provided a framework that made it possible to estimate the demographic parameters and abundance of a predator-prey system in a context where capture-recapture data were not available for one species. Our results showed that predator-prey interactions and local environmental conditions differentially affected south polar skuas depending on their breeding state of the previous year. Concerning prey-predator relationships, the number of Adélie penguin breeding pairs showed a positive effect on south polar skua survival and breeding probability, and the number of emperor penguin dead chicks showed a positive effect on the breeding success of south polar skuas. In contrast, there was no evidence for an effect of the number of south polar skuas on the demography of Adélie penguins. We also found an important impact of sea ice conditions on both the dynamics of south polar skuas and Adélie penguins. Our results suggest that this prey-predator system is mostly driven by bottom-up processes and local environmental conditions.

Resurrecting Historical Observations to Characterize Species-Specific Nesting Traits of Bumblebees

AbstractIn recent years, ecological research has become increasingly synthetic, relying on revolutionary changes in data availability and accessibility. In spite of their strengths, these approaches may cause us to overlook natural history knowledge that is not part of the digitized English-language scientific record. Here, we combine historic and modern documents to quantify species-specific nesting habitat associations of bumblebees (Bombus spp. Latreille, 1802 Apidae). We compiled nest location data from 316 documents, of which 81 were non-English and 93 were published before 1950. We tested whether nesting traits show phylogenetic signal, examined relationships between habitat associations at different scales, and compared methodologies used to locate nests. We found no clear phylogenetic signals, but we found that nesting habitat associations were somewhat generalizable within subgenera. Landcover associations were related to nesting substrate associations; for example, surface-nesting species also tended to be associated with grasslands. Methodology was associated with nest locations; community scientists were most likely and researchers using nest boxes were least likely to report nests in human-dominated environments. These patterns were not apparent in past syntheses based only on the modern digital record. Our findings highlight the tremendous value of historic accounts for quantifying species' traits and other basic biological knowledge needed to interpret global-scale patterns.

Experimental evidence of climate change extinction risk in Neotropical montane epiphytes

Climate change is conjectured to endanger tropical species, particularly in biodiverse montane regions, but accurate estimates of extinction risk are limited by a lack of empirical data demonstrating tropical species' sensitivity to climate. To fill this gap, studies could match high-quality distribution data with multi-year transplant experiments. Here, we conduct field surveys of epiphyte distributions on three mountains in Central America and perform reciprocal transplant experiments on one mountain across sites that varied in elevation, temperature and aridity. We find that most species are unable to survive outside of their narrow elevational distributions. Additionally, our findings suggest starkly different outcomes from temperature conditions expected by 2100 under different climate change scenarios. Under temperatures associated with low-emission scenarios, most tropical montane epiphyte species will survive, but under emission scenarios that are moderately high, 5-36% of our study species may go extinct and 10-55% of populations may be lost. Using a test of tropical species' climate tolerances from a large field experiment, paired with detailed species distribution data across multiple mountains, our work strengthens earlier conjecture about risks of wide-spread extinctions from climate change in tropical montane ecosystems.

New perspectives, additions, and amendments to plant endemism in a North African flora

BACKGROUND

Endemism is essential in biodiversity, biogeography, and conservation tasks. Based on herbarium specimens kept in some local herbaria, many published literature, and available information, we compiled a comprehensive list and an updated assessment of the Egyptian endemic and near-endemic taxa. The application of quantitative approaches to the distribution patterns, conservation status, and habitat preference of endemic taxa in Egypt was provided. Comparisons of the near-endemic taxa with other neighbouring flora were explained. For each taxon, the distribution patterns, most preferable habitat, biological spectrum, and taxa among 14 phytogeographical regions (Operational Geographical Units; OGUs) of Egypt were determined.

RESULTS

In this study, 19 endemics (out of 70) and 76 near-endemics (out of 181) are newly added taxa. Differentiation indices represented the taxonomic degrees of differentiation among endemic taxa. Two different indices were used to assess endemism: single-region endemic taxa (SRET) and multiple-region endemic taxa (MRET). Most endemic and near-endemic taxa were recorded from the mountainous Sinai (S) and the Mareotis sector of the Mediterranean coastal land (Mm). Generally, the most represented families in endemic and near-endemic areas were Asteraceae, Caryophyllaceae, Lamiaceae, and Fabaceae. More than 60% of the endemic taxa occurred in the sandy plains, wadis (desert valleys), and rocky plains and mountains. Applying hierarchical cluster analysis to the occurrences of 70 endemic taxa in the 14 studied OGUs revealed five main floristic groups (I-V), each characterized by certain OGUs. We provided eight groups of near-endemic taxa that represented their extension in neighbouring countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The presented data will help to fill the gap in our knowledge of endemism, provide baseline information to understand biogeographical processes and facilitate further cooperation toward conservation purposes.

The Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution Pattern of Species Richness of Endemic Wetland Plants in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Wetland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the region with the richest biodiversity and the most important ecological barrier function at high altitudes, are highly sensitive to global change, and wetland plants, which are important indicators of wetland ecosystem structure and function, are also threatened by wetland degradation. Therefore, a comprehensive study of changes in the geographical distribution pattern of plant diversity, as well as species loss and turnover of wetlands in the QTP in the context of global climate change is of great importance for the conservation and restoration of wetland ecosystems in the QTP. In this study, species turnover and loss of 395 endemic wetland plants of the QTP were predicted based on the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenarios. The results showed that there were interspecific differences in the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of species, and that most endemic wetland plants would experience range contraction. Under the climate change scenarios, the loss of suitable wetland plant habitat is expected to occur mainly in parts of the southern, north-central and north-western parts of the plateau, while the gain is mainly concentrated in parts of the western Sichuan Plateau, the Qilian Mountains, the Three Rivers Source Region and the northern Tibetan Plateau. Overlaying the analysis of priority protected areas with the established protected areas in the QTP has resulted in the following conservation gaps: the eastern Himalayan region, midstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the transition zone between the northern Tibetan Plateau and the Hengduan Mountains, Minshan-Qionglai mountain, Anyemaqen Mountains (southeast) to Bayankala (southeast) mountains, the southern foothills of the Qilian Mountains and the northern Tibetan Plateau region. In the future, the study of wetland plant diversity in the QTP and the optimisation of protected areas should focus on the conservation gaps. This study is of great importance for the study and conservation of wetland plant diversity in the QTP, and also provides a scientific basis for predicting the response of wetland plants to climate change in the QTP.

Climate change can disproportionately reduce habitats of stream fishes with restricted ranges in southern South America

Freshwater fishes are among the most threatened taxa worldwide owing to changes in land use, species introductions, and climate change. Although more than half of the freshwater fishes in the Chilean Mediterranean ecoregion are considered vulnerable or endangered, still little is known about their biogeography. Fishes of the family Perciliidae are endemic of this region and ideal cases to study potential implications of global warming given their endangered conservation status, small size, restricted range, and limited dispersal capacity in fragmented habitats. Here, we model the spatial distribution of habitats for Percilia irwini and P. gillissi under current (1970-2000) and future (2050-2080) climatic scenarios (SSP245, SSP585). We implement maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models adapted for stream networks using high-resolution datasets of selected geophysical and climatic variables. At present, both species inhabit relatively low-quality habitats. In the future (SSP585), suitable habitats for P. irwini are predicted to be reduced drastically (99%) with potential local extirpations in its northern range. Similarly, up to 62% of suitable habitats for P. gillissi would also be reduced in the future. Our study provides insights about assessing future threats and vulnerability of endemic, endangered, range-restricted, and small-bodied freshwater species in this region and elsewhere.

On the cost-effectiveness of Nature-based Solutions for reducing disaster risk

The potential of ecosystem-based interventions, also known as Nature-based Solutions (NbS), for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is now recognized by major national policies and international framework agreements. However, there is limited scientific evidence about their economic viability and equity impacts. We examined English-language peer-reviewed studies, published between 2000 and 2021, which undertook economic evaluations of NbS for DRR and CCA. Based on our results, 71 % of studies indicated that NbS have consistently proven to be a cost-effective approach to mitigating hazards and 24 % of studies found NbS cost-effective under certain conditions. The ecosystem-based interventions most frequently found effective in mitigating hazards are associated with mangroves (80 %), forests (77 %), and coastal ecosystems (73 %). Studies comparing the cost-effectiveness of NbS and engineering-based solutions for mitigating certain hazards showed that NbS are no less effective than engineering-based solutions. Among these studies, 65 % found that NbS are always more effective in attenuating hazards compared to engineering-based solutions and 26 % found that NbS are partially more effective. Our findings illustrate a range of factors, including the geographic locations of the NbS analyzed, their contribution to the restoration and increase of biodiversity, their property rights structure, their source of financing, and the economic methodologies employed to assess cost-effectiveness and distributional effects. The geographic location of the NbS observations included in this analysis was examined considering global projected temperature and precipitation changes.

Thermal Tolerance and Preferred Temperature in the Critical Endangered Montseny Brook Newt (Calotriton arnoldi)

Climate change, driven by increased human greenhouse gas emissions since the beginning of the industrial revolution up to the present day, is considered one of the major threats to biodiversity in the twenty-first century. One of the most affected groups is the ectotherms due to their direct dependence on environmental temperatures. In recent years, several studies have analysed the effects of temperature and thermal tolerance on several species of ectotherms. However, there are species whose thermal tolerances are still unknown. Such is the case of the critically endangered species, the Montseny Brook Newt (Calotriton arnoldi), endemic to the Montseny massif in Spain and whose thermal biology is unknown. Its critical situation makes it essential to know its tolerance to cooling, warming and thermopreferendum in water environments where the newt lives. Three experimental procedures were conducted from the western and eastern subspecies of C. arnoldi, considering four classes separately (males, females, juveniles and larvae). The results obtained showed that the CTmax of the species exceeded 31 °C, with a significant difference between the two subspecies. We found that the species tolerates low temperatures (<1 °C) well because the genera Calotriton is adapted to live in cold waters with temperatures below 15 °C. Although the thermopreference of the species was expected to trend to cold temperatures, some individuals chose relatively high temperatures, obtaining a range of 11.7 °C to 21.6 °C. The results presented in this study are an advance in the knowledge of the thermal physiology of this species and support the importance of the temperature of the torrent on its survival. Knowing their thermal limits and their preferred temperature range will help to propose management measures that promote the conservation of streams and riparian forest cover to mitigate temperature increases due to climate change.

Insufficient and biased representation of species geographic responses to climate change

The geographic redistributions of species due to a rapidly changing climate are poised to perturb ecological communities and significantly impact ecosystems and human livelihoods. Effectively managing these biological impacts requires a thorough understanding of the patterns and processes of species geographic range shifts. While substantial recent redistributions have been identified and recognized to vary by taxon, region, and range geometry, there are large gaps and biases in the available evidence. Here, we use the largest compilation of geographic range change observations to date, comprised of 33,016 potential redistributions across 12,009 species, to formally assess within- and cross-species coverage and biases and to motivate future data collection. We find that species coverage varies strongly by taxon and underrepresents species at high and low latitudes. Within species, assessments of potential redistributions came from parts of their geographic range that were highly uneven and non-representative. For most species and taxa, studies were strongly biased toward the colder parts of species' distributions and thus significantly underrepresented populations that might get pushed beyond their maximum temperature limits. Coverage of potential leading and trailing geographic range edges under a changing climate was similarly uneven. Only 8% of studied species were assessed at both high and low latitude and elevation range edges, with most only covered at one edge. This suggests that substantial within-species biases exacerbate the considerable geographic and taxonomic among-species unevenness in evidence. Our results open the door for a more quantitative accounting for existing knowledge biases in climate change ecology and a more informed management and conservation. Our findings offer guidance for future data collection that better addresses information gaps and provides a more effective foundation for managing the biological impacts of climate change.

Pushing the envelope: do narrowly and widely distributed Eucalyptus species differ in response to climate warming?

Contemporary climate change will push many tree species into conditions that are outside their current climate envelopes. Using the Eucalyptus genus as a model, we addressed whether species with narrower geographical distributions show constrained ability to cope with warming relative to species with wider distributions, and whether this ability differs among species from tropical and temperate climates. We grew seedlings of widely and narrowly distributed Eucalyptus species from temperate and tropical Australia in a glasshouse under two temperature regimes: the summer temperature at seed origin and +3.5°C. We measured physical traits and leaf-level gas exchange to assess warming influences on growth rates, allocation patterns, and physiological acclimation capacity. Warming generally stimulated growth, such that higher relative growth rates early in development placed seedlings on a trajectory of greater mass accumulation. The growth enhancement under warming was larger among widely than narrowly distributed species and among temperate rather than tropical provenances. The differential growth enhancement was primarily attributable to leaf area production and adjustments of specific leaf area. Our results suggest that tree species, including those with climate envelopes that will be exceeded by contemporary climate warming, possess capacity to physiologically acclimate but may have varying ability to adjust morphology.

Integrating environmental gradients into breeding: application of genomic reactions norms in a perennial species

Global warming threatens the productivity of forest plantations. We propose here the integration of environmental information into a genomic evaluation scheme using individual reaction norms, to enable the quantification of resilience in forest tree improvement and conservation strategies in the coming decades. Random regression models were used to fit wood ring series, reflecting the longitudinal phenotypic plasticity of tree growth, according to various environmental gradients. The predictive ability of the models was considered to select the most relevant environmental gradient, namely a gradient derived from an ecophysiological model and combining trunk water potential and temperature. Even if the individual ranking was preserved over most of the environmental gradient, strong genotype x environment interactions were detected in the extreme unfavorable part of the gradient, which includes environmental conditions that are very likely to be more frequent in the future. Combining genomic information and longitudinal data allowed to predict the growth of individuals in environments where they have not been observed. Phenotyping of 50% of the individuals in all the environments studied allowed to predict the growth of the remaining 50% of individuals in all these environments with a predictive ability of 0.25. Without changing the total number of observations, adding observations in a reduced number of environments for the individuals to be predicted, while decreasing the number of individuals phenotyped in all environments, increased the predictive ability to 0.59, highlighting the importance of phenotypic data allocation. We found that genomic reaction norms are useful for the characterization and prediction of the function of genetic parameters and facilitate breeding in a climate change context.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hypericum perforatum under Climate Change Scenarios Using a Maximum Entropy Model

H. perforatum, as one of the Traditional Chinese Medicinal materials, possesses a variety of pharmacological activities and high medicinal value. However, in recent years, the wild resources of H. perforatum have been severely depleted due to global climate change and human activities, and artificial cultivation faces problems such as unstable yield and active ingredient content. This poses a serious obstacle to the development and utilization of its resources. Therefore, this experiment took H. perforatum as the research object and used 894 distribution records of H. perforatum and 36 climatic environmental factors, using the MaxEnt model and GIS technology to explore the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of H. perforatum. Additionally, by utilizing the principles of ecological niche theory, the potential suitable distribution regions of H. perforatum across past, present, and future timelines were predicted, which can ascertain the dynamics of its spatial distribution patterns and the trend of centroid migration. The results indicate that the main environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of H. perforatum are solar radiation in April (Srad4), solar radiation in September (Srad9), mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio9), solar radiation in November (Srad11), annual mean temperature (Bio1), and annual precipitation (Bio12). Under future climate scenarios, there is a remarkable trend of expansion in the suitable distribution areas of H. perforatum. The centroid migration indicates a trend of migration towards the northwest direction and high-altitude areas. These results can provide a scientific basis for formulating conservation and sustainable use management strategies for H. perforatum resources.

Organisms have gravity: taking an organism-centered approach in experimental biology

When you take the time to observe another organism, there is a sort of gravity that can take hold, a mixture of curiosity and connection that expands and strengthens the more you interact with that organism. Yet, in research, a connection with one's study organism can, at times, feel countercultural. Study organisms are sometimes viewed more as tools to conveniently study biological questions. Here, we explicitly highlight the importance of organism-centered research not only in scientific discovery, but also in conservation and in the communication and perception of science.

Disentangling linkages between satellite-derived indicators of forest structure and productivity for ecosystem monitoring

The essential biodiversity variables (EBV) framework has been proposed as a monitoring system of standardized, comparable variables that represents a minimum set of biological information to monitor biodiversity change at large spatial extents. Six classes of EBVs (genetic composition, species populations, species traits, community composition, ecosystem structure and ecosystem function) are defined, a number of which are ideally suited to observation and monitoring by remote sensing systems. We used moderate-resolution remotely sensed indicators representing two ecosystem-level EBV classes (ecosystem structure and function) to assess their complementarity and redundancy across a range of ecosystems encompassing significant environmental gradients. Redundancy analyses found that remote sensing indicators of forest structure were not strongly related to indicators of ecosystem productivity (represented by the Dynamic Habitat Indices; DHIs), with the structural information only explaining 15.7% of the variation in the DHIs. Complex metrics of forest structure, such as aboveground biomass, did not contribute additional information over simpler height-based attributes that can be directly estimated with light detection and ranging (LIDAR) observations. With respect to ecosystem conditions, we found that forest types and ecosystems dominated by coniferous trees had less redundancy between the remote sensing indicators when compared to broadleaf or mixed forest types. Likewise, higher productivity environments exhibited the least redundancy between indicators, in contrast to more environmentally stressed regions. We suggest that biodiversity researchers continue to exploit multiple dimensions of remote sensing data given the complementary information they provide on structure and function focused EBVs, which makes them jointly suitable for monitoring forest ecosystems.

Assessing Reptile Conservation Status under Global Climate Change

Global climate change drives variations in species distribution patterns and affects biodiversity, potentially increasing the risk of species extinction. Investigating the potential distribution range of species under future global climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management. In this study, we collected distributional data for 5282 reptile species to assess their conservation status based on distributional ranges using species distribution models. Our predictions indicate that the potential distribution ranges for over half of these species are projected to decrease under different scenarios. Under future scenarios with relatively low carbon emissions, the increase in the number of threatened reptiles is significantly lower, highlighting the importance of human efforts. Surprisingly, we identified some endangered species that are projected to expand their distribution ranges, underscoring the potential positive effects of climate change on some special species. Our findings emphasize the increased extinction risk faced by reptile species due to climate change and highlight the urgent need to mitigate the effects of habitat degradation and human activities on their potential distribution in the future.

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species' distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming-the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species' distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species' distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

Patterns and correlates of potential range shifts of bat species in China in the context of climate change

Climate change may diminish biodiversity; thus, it is urgent to predict how species' ranges may shift in the future by integrating multiple factors involving more taxa. Bats are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high surface-to-volume ratio. However, few studies have considered geographic variables associated with roost availability and even fewer have linked the distributions of bats to their thermoregulation and energy regulation traits. We used species distribution models to predict the potential distributions of 12 bat species in China under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and examined factors that could affect species' range shifts, including climatic, geographic, habitat, and human activity variables and wing surface-to-mass ratio (S-MR). The results suggest that Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, and Rhinolophus rex should be given the highest priority for conservation in future climate conservation strategies. Most species were predicted to move northward, except for I. io and R. rex, which moved southward. Temperature seasonality, distance to forest, and distance to karst or cave were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distributions of bats. We found significant relationships between S-MR and geographic distribution, current potential distribution, and future potential distribution in the 2050s. Our work highlights the importance of analyzing range shifts of species with multifactorial approaches, especially for species traits related to thermoregulation and energy regulation, to provide targeted conservation strategies.

Humidity and temperature preference in two Neotropical species of sand flies

BACKGROUND

Arthropods vector a multitude of human disease-causing organisms, and their geographic ranges are shifting rapidly in response to changing climatic conditions. This is, in turn, altering the landscape of disease risk for human populations that are brought into novel contact with the vectors and the diseases they carry. Sand flies in the genera Lutzomyia and Pintomyia are vectors of serious disease-causing agents such as Leishmania (the etiological agent of leishmaniasis) and may be expanding their range in the face of climate change. Understanding the climatic conditions that vector species both tolerate physiologically and prefer behaviorally is critical to predicting the direction and magnitude of range expansions and the resulting impacts on human health. Temperature and humidity are key factors that determine the geographic extent of many arthropods, including vector species.

METHODS

We characterized the habitat of two species of sand flies, Lutzomyia longipalpis and Pintomyia evansi. Additionally, we studied two behavioral factors of thermal fitness-thermal and humidity preference in two species of sand flies alongside a key aspect of physiological tolerance-desiccation resistance.

RESULTS

We found that Lu. longipalpis is found at cooler and drier conditions than Pi. evansi. Our results also show significant interspecific differences in both behavioral traits, with Pi. evansi preferring warmer, more humid conditions than Lu. longipalpis. Finally, we found that Lu. longipalpis shows greater tolerance to extreme low humidity, and that this is especially pronounced in males of the species.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, our results suggest that temperature and humidity conditions are key aspects of the climatic niche of Lutzomyia and Pintomyia sand flies and underscore the value of integrative studies of climatic tolerance and preference in vector biology.

Ecological Niche Differentiation and Response to Climate Change of the African Endemic Family Myrothamnaceae

Studying the ecological niches of species and their responses to climate change can provide better conservation strategies for these species. Myrothamnaceae is endemic to Africa, comprising only two species that belong to Myrothamnus (M. flabellifolius and M. moschatus). These closely related species exhibit allopatric distributions, positioning them as ideal materials for studying the species ecological adaptation. This study explores the ecological niche differentiation between M. flabellifolius and M. moschatus and their response capabilities to future climate change. The results indicate that M. flabellifolius and M. moschatus have undergone niche differentiation. The main drivers of niche differences are the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) for M. flabellifolius, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) for M. moschatus. M. flabellifolius demonstrated a stronger adaptation to environments characterized by lower precipitation, relatively lower temperatures, and greater annual temperature variations compared to M. moschatus. Under future climate scenarios (SSP5-8.5, 2081-2100 years), the results show that approximately 85% of the total suitable habitat for M. flabellifolius will be lost, with an 85% reduction in high-suitability areas and almost complete loss of the original mid-low suitability areas. Concurrently, about 29% of the total suitable habitat for M. moschatus will be lost, with a 34% reduction in high suitability areas and roughly 60% of the original mid-low suitability areas becoming unsuitable. This suggests that M. flabellifolius will face greater threats under future climate change. This study contributes novel insight into niche differentiation in Myrothamnaceae and provides useful information for the conservation of this distinctive African lineage.

Planting long-lived trees in a warming climate: Theory shows the importance of stage-dependent climatic tolerance

Climate change poses a particular threat to long-lived trees, which may not adapt or migrate fast enough to keep up with rising temperatures. Assisted gene flow could facilitate adaptation of populations to future climates by using managed translocation of seeds from a warmer location (provenance) within the current range of a species. Finding the provenance that will perform best in terms of survival or growth is complicated by a trade-off. Because trees face a rapidly changing climate during their long lives, the alleles that confer optimal performance may vary across their lifespan. For instance, trees from warmer provenances could be well adapted as adults but suffer from colder temperatures while juvenile. Here we use a stage-structured model, using both analytical predictions and numerical simulations, to determine which provenance would maximize the survival of a cohort of long-lived trees in a changing climate. We parameterize our simulations using empirically estimated demographic transition matrices for 20 long-lived tree species. Unable to find reliable quantitative estimates of how climatic tolerance changes across stages in these same species, we varied this parameter to study its effect. Both our mathematical model and simulations predict that the best provenance depends strongly on how fast the climate changes and also how climatic tolerance varies across the lifespan of a tree. We thus call for increased empirical efforts to measure how climate tolerance changes over life in long-lived species, as our model suggests that it should strongly influence the best provenance for assisted gene flow.

Identifying global conservation priorities for terrestrial vertebrates based on multiple dimensions of biodiversity

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity calls for an expansion of the current protected areas (PAs) to cover at least 30% of global land and water areas by 2030 (i.e., the 30×30 target). Efficient spatial planning for PA expansion is an urgent need for global conservation practice. A spatial prioritization framework considering multiple dimensions of biodiversity is critical for improving the efficiency of the spatial planning of PAs, yet it remains a challenge. We developed an index for the identification of priority areas based on functionally rare, evolutionarily distinct, and globally endangered species (FREDGE) and applied it to 21,536 terrestrial vertebrates. We determined species distributions, conservation status (global endangerment), molecular phylogenies (evolutionary distinctiveness), and life-history traits (functional rarity). Madagascar, Central America, and the Andes were of high priority for the conservation of multiple dimensions of terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity. However, 68.8% of grid cells in these priority areas had <17% of their area covered by PAs, and these priority areas were under intense anthropogenic and climate change threats. These results highlight the difficulties of conserving multiple dimensions of biodiversity. Our global analyses of the geographical patterns of multiple dimensions of terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity demonstrate the insufficiency of the conservation of different biodiversity dimensions, and our index, based on multiple dimensions of biodiversity, provides a useful tool for guiding future spatial prioritization of PA expansion to achieve the 30×30 target under serious pressures.

Otolith morphogenesis during the early life stages of fish is temperature-dependent: Validation by experimental approach applied to European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax)

Otolith shape is often used as a tool in fish stock identification. The goal of this study was to experimentally assess the influence of changing temperature and ontogenic evolution on the shape component of the European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) otolith during early-life stages. A total of 1079 individuals were reared in a water temperature of 16°C up to 232 days post hatch (dph). During this experiment, several specimens were transferred into tanks with a water temperature of 21°C to obtain at the end of this study four different temperature treatments, each with varying ratios between the number of days at 16 and 21°C. To evaluate the otolith morphogenesis, samples were examined at 43, 72, 86 and 100 dph. The evolution of normalized otolith shape from hatching up to 100 dph showed that there were two main successive changes. First, faster growth in the antero-posterior axis than in the dorso-ventral axis changed the circular-shaped otolith from that observed at hatching and, second, increasing the complexity relating to the area between the rostrum and the anti-rostrum. To test the effect of changing temperature, growing degree-day was used in three linear mixed-effect models. Otolith morphogenesis was positively correlated to growing degree-day, but was also dependent on temperature level. Otolith shape is influenced by environmental factors, particularly temperature, making it an efficient tool for fish stock identification.

Unraveling the unknown: Adaptive spatial planning to enhance climate resilience for the endangered Swamp Grass-babbler (Laticilla cinerascens) with habitat connectivity and complexity approach

The endangered and poorly known Swamp Grass-babbler, Laticilla cinerascens (Passeriformes: Pellorneidae), confronts critical threats and vulnerability due to its specific habitat requirements and restricted populations in the northeastern region of the Indian Subcontinent. This study investigates the distribution of the species, habitat quality, geometry and shape complexity of connectivity among the protected areas (PAs), and responses to climate change in Northeast India under different climate change pathways by utilizing ensemble distribution models, and ecological metrics. From the total distribution extent (1,42,000 km2), approximately 9366 km2 (6.59 %) is identified as the suitable habitat for this threatened species. Historically centered around Dibru Saikhowa National Park (DSNP), the species faced a drastic decline due to anthropogenic activities and alteration in land use and lover cover. The study also reveals a significant decline in suitable habitat for L. cinerascens in future climate scenarios, with alarming reductions under SSP126 (>10 % in the timeframe 2041-2060 and > 30 % from 2061 to 2080), SSP245 (>90 % in both time periods), and SSP585 (>90 % in both timeframes) from the present scenario. At present, DSNP has the most suitable habitat within the distribution range but is projected to decline (>90 %) under more severe climate change scenarios, as observed in other PAs. Landscape fragmentation analysis indicates a shift in habitat geometry, highlighting the intricate impact of climate change. It predicts a substantial 343 % increase (in the SSP126) in small habitat patches in the future. Connectivity analysis among PAs shows a significant shift, with a decline exceeding 20 %. The analysis of shape complexity and connectivity geometry reveals a significant increase of over 220 % in the fragmentation of connectivity among PAs between 2061 and 2080 under the SSP585 climate change scenario compared to the present conditions. The study underscores the urgent need for conservation actions, emphasizing the complex interplay of climate change, habitat suitability, and fragmentation. Prioritizing PAs with suitable habitats and assessing their connectivity is crucial. Adaptive management strategies are essential to address ongoing environmental changes and safeguard biodiversity. Future research in critical areas is needed to establish long-term monitoring programs to lead/extend effective conservation strategies.

Assessment of Suitable Habitat of the Demoiselle Crane (Anthropoides virgo) in the Wake of Climate Change: A Study of Its Wintering Refugees in Pakistan

The inevitable impacts of climate change have reverberated across ecosystems and caused substantial global biodiversity loss. Climate-induced habitat loss has contributed to range shifts at both species and community levels. Given the importance of identifying suitable habitats for at-risk species, it is imperative to assess potential current and future distributions, and to understand influential environmental factors. Like many species, the Demoiselle crane is not immune to climatic pressures. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces in Pakistan are known wintering grounds for this species. Given that Pakistan is among the top five countries facing devastating effects of climate change, this study sought to conduct species distribution modeling under climate change using data collected during 4 years of field surveys. We developed a Maximum Entropy distribution model to predict the current and projected future distribution of the species across the study area. Future habitat projections for 2050 and 2070 were carried out using two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) under three global circulation models, including HADGEM2-AO, BCC-CSM1-1, and CCSM4. The most influential factors shaping Demoiselle Crane habitat suitability included the temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, terrain ruggedness index, and human population density, all of which contributed significantly to the suitability (81.3%). The model identified 35% of the study area as moderately suitable (134,068 km2) and highly suitable (27,911 km2) habitat for the species under current climatic conditions. Under changing climate scenarios, our model predicted a major loss of the species' current suitable habitat, with shrinkage and shift towards western-central areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan boarder. The RCP 8.5, which is the extreme climate change scenario, portrays particularly severe consequences, with habitat losses reaching 65% in 2050 and 85% in 2070. This comprehensive study provides useful insights into the Demoiselle Crane habitat's current and future dynamics in Pakistan.

Predicting the geographical distribution and niche characteristics of Cotoneaster multiflorus based on future climate change

Introduction

Arid and semi-arid regions are climate-sensitive areas, which account for about 40% of the world's land surface area. Future environment change will impact the environment of these area, resulting in a sharp expansion of arid and semi-arid regions. Cotoneaster multiflorus is a multi-functional tree species with extreme cold, drought and barren resistance, as well as ornamental and medicinal functions. It was found to be one of the most important tree species for ecological restoration in arid and semi-arid areas. However, bioclimatic factors play an important role in the growth, development and distribution of plants. Therefore, exploring the response pattern and ecological adaptability of C. multiflorus to future climate change is important for the long-term ecological restoration of C. multiflorus in arid and semi-arid areas.

Methods

In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of C. multiflorus in China under different climate scenarios based on the MaxEnt 2.0 model, and discussed its adaptability and the major factors affecting its geographical distribution.

Results

The major factors that explained the geographical distribution of C. multiflorus were Annual precipitation (Bio12), Min air temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), and Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11). However, C. multiflorus could thrive in environments where Annual precipitation (Bio12) >150 mm, Min air temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) > -42.5°C, and Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11) > -20°C, showcasing its characteristics of cold and drought tolerance. Under different future climate scenarios, the total suitable area for C. multiflorus ranged from 411.199×104 km² to 470.191×104 km², which was 0.8~6.14 percentage points higher than the current total suitable area. Additionally, it would further shift towards higher latitude.

Discussion

The MaxEnt 2.0 model predicted the potential distribution pattern of C. multiflorus in the context of future climate change, and identified its ecological adaptability and the main climatic factors affecting its distribution. This study provides an important theoretical basis for natural vegetation restoration in arid and semi-arid areas.

Temperature-driven homogenization of an ant community over 60 years in a montane ecosystem

Identifying the mechanisms underlying the changes in the distribution of species is critical to accurately predict how species have responded and will respond to climate change. Here, we take advantage of a late-1950s study on ant assemblages in a canyon near Boulder, Colorado, USA, to understand how and why species distributions have changed over a 60-year period. Community composition changed over 60 years with increasing compositional similarity among ant assemblages. Community composition differed significantly between the periods, with aspect and tree cover influencing composition. Species that foraged in broader temperature ranges became more widespread over the 60-year period. Our work highlights that shifts in community composition and biotic homogenization can occur even in undisturbed areas without strong habitat degradation. We also show the power of pairing historical and contemporary data and encourage more mechanistic studies to predict species changes under climate change.

Anthropogenic and climatic factors interact to influence reproductive timing and effort

Reproduction, although absolutely essential to a species' persistence, is in itself challenging. As anthropogenic change increasingly affects every landscape on Earth, it is critical to understand how specific pressures impact the reproductive efforts of individuals, which directly contribute to the success or failure of populations. However, organisms rarely encounter a single burden at a time, and the interactions of environmental challenges can have compounding effects. Understanding environmental and physiological pressures is difficult because they are often context-dependent and not generalizable, but long-term monitoring across variable landscapes and weather patterns can improve our understanding of these complex interactions. We tested the effects of urbanization, climate, and individual condition on the reproductive investment of wild side-blotched lizards (Uta stansburiana) by measuring physiological/reproductive metrics from six populations in urban and rural areas over six consecutive years of variable precipitation. We observed that reproductive stage affected body condition, corticosterone concentration, and oxidative stress. We also observed that reproductive patterns differed between urban and rural populations depending on rainfall, with rural animals increasing reproductive investment during rainier years compared to urban conspecifics, and that reproductive decisions appeared to occur early in the reproductive process. These results demonstrate the plastic nature of a generalist species optimizing lifetime fitness under varying conditions.

Metabolic adjustments to winter severity in two geographically separated great tit (Parus major) populations

Understanding the potential limits placed on organisms by their ecophysiology is crucial for predicting their responses to varying environmental conditions. A main hypothesis for explaining avian thermoregulatory mechanisms is the aerobic capacity model, which posits a positive correlation between basal (basal metabolic rate [BMR]) and summit (Msum) metabolism. Most evidence for this hypothesis, however, comes from interspecific comparisons, and the ecophysiological underpinnings of avian thermoregulatory capacities hence remain controversial. Indeed, studies have traditionally relied on between-species comparisons, although, recently, there has been a growing recognition of the importance of intraspecific variation in ecophysiological responses. Therefore, here, we focused on great tits (Parus major), measuring BMR and Msum during winter in two populations from two different climates: maritime-temperate (Gontrode, Belgium) and continental (Zvenigorod, Russia). We tested for the presence of intraspecific geographical variation in metabolic rates and assessed the predictions following the aerobic capacity model. We found that birds from the maritime-temperate climate (Gontrode) showed higher BMR, whereas conversely, great tits from Zvenigorod showed higher levels of Msum. Within each population, our data did not fully support the aerobic capacity model's predictions. We argued that the decoupling of BMR and Msum observed may be caused by different selective forces acting on these metabolic rates, with birds from the continental-climate Zvenigorod population facing the need to conserve energy for surviving long winter nights (by keeping their BMR at low levels) while simultaneously being able to generate more heat (i.e., a high Msum) to withstand cold spells.

Climate change-associated declines in water clarity impair feeding by common loons

Climate change has myriad impacts on ecosystems, but the mechanisms by which it affects individual species can be difficult to pinpoint. One strategy to discover such mechanisms is to identify a specific ecological factor related to survival or reproduction and determine how that factor is affected by climate. Here we used Landsat imagery to calculate water clarity for 127 lakes in northern Wisconsin from 1995 to 2021 and thus investigate the effect of clarity on the body condition of an aquatic visual predator, the common loon (Gavia immer). In addition, we examined rainfall and temperature as potential predictors of water clarity. Body mass tracked July water clarity strongly in loon chicks, which grow chiefly in that month, but weakly in adult males and females. Long-term mean water clarity was negatively related to chick mass but positively related to adult male mass, suggesting that loons foraging in generally clear lakes enjoy good foraging conditions in the long run but might be sensitive to perturbations in clarity during chick-rearing. Finally, chick mass was positively related to the density of docks, perhaps because angling removes large fishes and thus boosts the abundance of the small fishes on which chicks depend. Water clarity itself declined strongly from 1995 to 2021, was negatively related to July rainfall, and was positively related to July air temperature. Our findings identified both long-term and short-term water clarity as strong predictors of loon foraging efficiency, and suggest that climate change, through water clarity, impacts freshwater ecosystems profoundly. Moreover, our results identified the recent decrease in water clarity as a likely cause of population decline in common loons.

Future climatically suitable areas for bats in South Asia

Climate change majorly impacts biodiversity in diverse regions across the world, including South Asia, a megadiverse area with heterogeneous climatic and vegetation regions. However, climate impacts on bats in this region are not well-studied, and it is unclear whether climate effects will follow patterns predicted in other regions. We address this by assessing projected near-future changes in climatically suitable areas for 110 bat species from South Asia. We used ensemble ecological niche modelling with four algorithms (random forests, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and maximum entropy) to define climatically suitable areas under current conditions (1970-2000). We then extrapolated near future (2041-2060) suitable areas under four projected scenarios (combining two global climate models and two shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP2: middle-of-the-road and SSP5: fossil-fuelled development). Projected future changes in suitable areas varied across species, with most species predicted to retain most of the current area or lose small amounts. When shifts occurred due to projected climate change, new areas were generally northward of current suitable areas. Suitability hotspots, defined as regions suitable for >30% of species, were generally predicted to become smaller and more fragmented. Overall, climate change in the near future may not lead to dramatic shifts in the distribution of bat species in South Asia, but local hotspots of biodiversity may be lost. Our results offer insight into climate change effects in less studied areas and can inform conservation planning, motivating reappraisals of conservation priorities and strategies for bats in South Asia.

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Potential global distribution of Setaria italica, an important species for dryland agriculture in the context of climate change

Setaria italica (S. italica, Linnaeus, 1753) is a drought-resistant, barren-tolerant, and widely adapted C-4 crop that plays a vital role in maintaining agricultural and economic stability in arid and barren regions of the world. However, the potential habitat of S. italica under current and future climate scenarios remains to be explored. Predicting the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica and clarifying its ecological requirements can help promote sustainable agriculture, which is crucial for addressing the global food crisis. In this study, we predicted the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica based on 3,154 global distribution records using the Maxent model and ArcGIS software. We assessed the constraints on its potential distribution based on the contribution of environmental factors variables. The predictive accuracy of the Maxent model was evaluated using AUC values, TSS values, and Kappa statistics, respectively. The results showed that the Maxent model had a high prediction accuracy, and the simulation results were also reliable; the total suitable habitats of S. italica is 5.54×107 km2, which mainly included the United States (North America), Brazil (South America), Australia (Oceania), China, India (Asia), and the Russian Federation (Europe). The most suitable habitat of S. italica was 0.52×107 km2, accounting for 9.44% of the total areas, mainly in the United States, India, the Russian Federation, and China. Soil and precipitation (driest monthly precipitation, hottest seasonal precipitation) are the most critical factors limiting the potential distribution of S. italica. Compared with the modern potential distribution, we predict that the four future climate change scenarios will result in varying reductions in the possible geographic ranges of S. italica. Overall, climate change may significantly affect the global distribution of S. italica, altering its worldwide production and trade patterns.

Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus's Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change

Endemic island species face heightened extinction risk from climate-driven shifts, yet standard models often underestimate threat levels for those like Quercus alnifolia, an iconic Cypriot oak with pre-adaptations to aridity. Through species distribution modelling, we investigated the potential shifts in its distribution under future climate and land-use change scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines dispersal constraints, detailed soil characteristics, hydrological factors, and anticipated soil erosion data, offering a comprehensive assessment of environmental suitability. We quantified the species' sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability to projected changes, conducting a preliminary IUCN extinction risk assessment according to Criteria A and B. Our projections uniformly predict range reductions, with a median decrease of 67.8% by the 2070s under the most extreme scenarios. Additionally, our research indicates Quercus alnifolia's resilience to diverse erosion conditions and preference for relatively dry climates within a specific annual temperature range. The preliminary IUCN risk assessment designates Quercus alnifolia as Critically Endangered in the future, highlighting the need for focused conservation efforts. Climate and land-use changes are critical threats to the species' survival, emphasising the importance of comprehensive modelling techniques and the urgent requirement for dedicated conservation measures to safeguard this iconic species.

The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction

Within a few decades, the species habitat was reshaped at an alarming rate followed by climate change, leading to mass extinction, especially for sensitive species. Species distribution models (SDMs), which estimate both present and future species distribution, have been extensively developed to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability. In the West Asia essential oils of T. daenensis and T. kotschyanus include high amounts of thymol and carvacrol and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents and medicinal plants. Therefore, this study aimed to model these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The findings revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) was the most significant variable affecting the distribution of T. daenensis. In the case of T. kotschyanus, slope percentage was the primary influencing factor. The MaxEnt modeling also demonstrated excellent performance, as indicated by all the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Moreover, based on the projections, the two mentioned species are expected to undergo negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable achievement for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change.

Response of Extremely Small Populations to Climate Change-A Case of Trachycarpus nanus in Yunnan, China

Climate change affects the geographical distribution of plant species. Rare Trachycarpus nanus with a narrow distribution range, high medicinal value and extremely small population is facing increasing extinction risks under global climate change. In this study, 96 recorded occurrences and 23 environmental factors are used to predict the potential suitable area of T. nanus based on the optimized MaxEnt (3.4.4) model and ArcGIS (10.7) software. The results show that when the parameters are FC = LQ and RM = 1, the MaxEnt model is optimal and AUC = 0.946. The distribution patterns were predicted in the past, present, and four future phases, i.e., 2021-2040 (2030), 2041-2060 (2050), 2061-2080 (2070), and 2081-2100 (2090). The main factors are the annual precipitation (bio12), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), temperature seasonality (bio4), precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16), and isothermality (bio3). The potential distribution of T. nanus is primarily concentrated in central Chuxiong, encompassing a total potential suitable area of 5.65 × 104 km2. In historical periods, the total habitat area is smaller than that in the present. In the future, the potential suitable area is generally increased. The centroid analysis shows that T. nanus will move to a high-altitude area and to the southeast. But its dispersal capacity may not keep up with the climate change rate. Therefore, additional protection sites for this species should be appropriately established and the habitat connectivity should be enhanced.

How incubation temperature affects hatchling performance in reptiles: an integrative insight based on plasticity in metabolic enzyme

Evaluating the effects of temperature variations on animals plays an important role in understanding the threat of climate warming. The effects of developmental temperature on offspring performance are critical in evaluating the effects of warming temperatures on the fitness of oviparous species, but the physiological and biochemical basis of this developmental plasticity is largely unknown. In this study, we incubated eggs of the turtle Pelodiscus sinensis at low (24 °C), medium (28 °C), and high (32 °C) temperatures, and evaluated the effects of developmental temperature on offspring fitness, and metabolic enzymes in the neck and limb muscles of hatchlings. The hatchlings from eggs incubated at the medium temperature showed better fitness-related performance (righting response and swimming capacity) and higher activities of metabolic enzymes (hexokinase, HK; lactate dehydrogenase, LDH) than hatchlings from the eggs incubated at high or low temperatures. In addition, the swimming speed and righting response were significantly correlated with the HK activities in limb (swimming speed) and neck (righting response) muscles, suggesting that the developmental plasticity of energy metabolic pathway might play a role in determining the way incubation temperature affects offspring phenotypes. Integrating the fitness-related performance and the activities of metabolic enzymes, we predict that the P. sinensis from high latitude would not face the detrimental effects of climate warming until the average nest temperatures reach 32 °C.

Climate biogeography of Arabidopsis thaliana: linking distribution models and individual variation

AIM

Patterns of individual variation are key to testing hypotheses about the mechanisms underlying biogeographic patterns. If species distributions are determined by environmental constraints, then populations near range margins may have reduced performance and be adapted to harsher environments. Model organisms are potentially important systems for biogeographical studies, given the available range-wide natural history collections, and the importance of providing biogeographical context to their genetic and phenotypic diversity.

LOCATION

Global.

TAXON

Arabidopsis thaliana ("Arabidopsis").

METHODS

We fit occurrence records to climate data, and then projected the distribution of Arabidopsis under last glacial maximum, current, and future climates. We confronted model predictions with individual performance measured on 2,194 herbarium specimens, and we asked whether predicted suitability was associated with life-history and genomic variation measured on ~900 natural accessions.

RESULTS

The most important climate variables constraining the Arabidopsis distribution were winter cold in northern and high elevation regions and summer heat in southern regions. Herbarium specimens from regions with lower habitat suitability in both northern and southern regions were smaller, supporting the hypothesis that the distribution of Arabidopsis is constrained by climate-associated factors. Climate anomalies partly explained interannual variation in herbarium specimen size, but these did not closely correspond to local limiting factors identified in the distribution model. Late-flowering genotypes were absent from the lowest suitability regions, suggesting slower life histories are only viable closer to the center of the realized niche. We identified glacial refugia farther north than previously recognized, as well as refugia concordant with previous population genetic findings. Lower latitude populations, known to be genetically distinct, are most threatened by future climate change. The recently colonized range of Arabidopsis was well-predicted by our native-range model applied to certain regions but not others, suggesting it has colonized novel climates.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Integration of distribution models with performance data from vast natural history collections is a route forward for testing biogeographical hypotheses about species distributions and their relationship with evolutionary fitness across large scales.

Temperature-dependent dispersal and ectotherm species' distributions in a warming world

Dispersal is a crucial component of species' responses to climate warming. Warming-induced changes in species' distributions are the outcome of how temperature affects dispersal at the individual level. Yet, there is little or no theory that considers the temperature dependence of dispersal when investigating the impacts of warming on species' distributions. Here I take a first step towards filling this key gap in our knowledge. I focus on ectotherms, species whose body temperature depends on the environmental temperature, not least because they constitute the majority of biodiversity on the planet. I develop a mathematical model of spatial population dynamics that explicitly incorporates mechanistic descriptions of ectotherm life history trait responses to temperature. A novel feature of this framework is the explicit temperature dependence of all phases of dispersal: emigration, transfer and settlement. I report three key findings. First, dispersal, regardless of whether it is random or temperature-dependent, allows both tropical and temperate ectotherms to track warming-induced changes in their thermal environments and to expand their distributions beyond the lower and upper thermal limits of their respective climate envelopes. In the absence of dispersal mortality, warming does not alter these new distributional limits. Second, an analysis based solely on trait response data predicts that tropical ectotherms should be able to expand their distributions polewards to a greater degree than temperate ectotherms. Analysis of the dynamical model confirms this prediction. Tropical ectotherms have an advantage when moving to cooler climates because they experience lower within-patch and dispersal mortality, and their higher thermal optima and maximal birth rates allow them to take advantage of the warmer parts of the year. Previous theory has shown that tropical ectotherms are more successful in invading and adapting the temperate climates than vice versa. This study provides the key missing piece, by showing how temperature-dependent dispersal could facilitate both invasion and adaptation. Third, dispersal mortality does not affect the poleward expansion of ectotherm distributions. But, it prevents both tropical and temperate ectotherms from maintaining sink populations in localities that are too warm to be viable in the absence of dispersal. Dispersal mortality also affects species' abundance patterns, causing a larger decline in abundance throughout the range when species disperse randomly rather than in response to thermal habitat suitability. In this way, dispersal mortality can facilitate the evolution of dispersal modes that maximize fitness in warmer thermal environments.

Ecological responses of squamate reptiles to nocturnal warming

Nocturnal temperatures are increasing at a pace exceeding diurnal temperatures in most parts of the world. The role of warmer nocturnal temperatures in animal ecology has received scant attention and most studies focus on diurnal or daily descriptors of thermal environments' temporal trends. Yet, available evidence from plant and insect studies suggests that organisms can exhibit contrasting physiological responses to diurnal and nocturnal warming. Limiting studies to diurnal trends can thus result in incomplete and misleading interpretations of the ability of species to cope with global warming. Although they are expected to be impacted by warmer nocturnal temperatures, insufficient data are available regarding the night-time ecology of vertebrate ectotherms. Here, we illustrate the complex effects of nocturnal warming on squamate reptiles, a keystone group of vertebrate ectotherms. Our review includes discussion of diurnal and nocturnal ectotherms, but we mainly focus on diurnal species for which nocturnal warming affects a period dedicated to physiological recovery, and thus may perturb activity patterns and energy balance. We first summarise the physical consequences of nocturnal warming on habitats used by squamate reptiles. Second, we describe how such changes can alter the energy balance of diurnal species. We illustrate this with empirical data from the asp viper (Vipera aspis) and common wall lizard (Podarcis muralis), two diurnal species found throughout western Europe. Third, we make use of a mechanistic approach based on an energy-balance model to draw general conclusions about the effects of nocturnal temperatures. Fourth, we examine how warmer nights may affect squamates over their lifetime, with potential consequences on individual fitness and population dynamics. We review quantitative evidence for such lifetime effects using recent data derived from a range of studies on the European common lizard (Zootoca vivipara). Finally, we consider the broader eco-evolutionary ramifications of nocturnal warming and highlight several research questions that require future attention. Our work emphasises the importance of considering the joint influence of diurnal and nocturnal warming on the responses of vertebrate ectotherms to climate warming.

Incorporating plant phenological responses into species distribution models reduces estimates of future species loss and turnover

Anthropogenetic climate change has caused range shifts among many species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how species ranges may change in the future. However, most SDMs rarely consider how climate-sensitive traits, such as phenology, which affect individuals' demography and fitness, may influence species' ranges. Using > 120 000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species distributed across the eastern United States, we developed a novel 'phenology-informed' SDM that integrates phenological responses to changing climates. We compared the ranges of each species forecast by the phenology-informed SDM with those from conventional SDMs. We further validated the modeling approach using hindcasting. When examining the range changes of all species, our phenology-informed SDMs forecast less species loss and turnover under climate change than conventional SDMs. These results suggest that dynamic phenological responses of species may help them adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats as the climate changes. Plant phenology can modulate species' responses to climate change, mitigating its negative effects on species persistence. Further application of our framework will contribute to a generalized understanding of how traits affect species distributions along environmental gradients and facilitate the use of trait-based SDMs across spatial and taxonomic scales.

Predicting future climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra): an endangered arboreal primate

Climate change is one of the main factors affecting biodiversity worldwide at an alarming rate. In addition to increases in global extreme weather events, melting of polar ice caps, and subsequent sea level rise, climate change might shift the geographic distribution of species. In recent years, interest in understanding the effects of climate change on species distribution has increased, including species which depend greatly on forest cover for survival, such as strictly arboreal primates. Here, we generate a series of species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate future projections under different climate change scenarios on the distribution of the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra), an endemic endangered primate species. Using SDMs, we assessed current and future projections of their potential distribution for three Social Economic Paths (SSPs) for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090. Specifically, we found that precipitation seasonality (BIO15, 30.8%), isothermality (BIO3, 25.4%), and mean diurnal range (BIO2, 19.7.%) are the main factors affecting A. pigra distribution. The future climate change models suggested a decrease in the potential distribution of A. pigra by projected scenarios (from - 1.23 to - 12.66%). The highly suitable area was the most affected above all in the more pessimist scenario most likely related to habitat fragmentation. Our study provides new insights into the potential future distribution and suitable habitats of Alouatta pigra. Such information could be used by local communities, governments, and non-governmental organizations for conservation planning of this primate species.

Heatwave-like events affect drone production and brood-care behaviour in bumblebees

Climate change is currently considered one of the major threats to biodiversity and is associated with an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves. Heatwaves create acutely stressful conditions that may lead to disruption in the performance and survival of ecologically and economically important organisms, such as insect pollinators. In this study, we investigated the impact of simulated heatwaves on the performance of queenless microcolonies of Bombus terrestris audax under laboratory conditions. Our results indicate that heatwaves can have significant impacts on bumblebee performance. However, contrary to our expectations, exposure to heatwaves did not affect survival. Exposure to a mild 5-day heatwave (30-32 °C) resulted in increased offspring production compared to those exposed to an extreme heatwave (34-36 °C) and to the control group (24 °C). We also found that brood-care behaviours were impacted by the magnitude of the heatwave. Wing fanning occurred occasionally at temperatures of 30-32 °C, whereas at 34-36 °C the proportion of workers engaged in this thermoregulatory behaviour increased significantly. Our results provide insights into the effects of heatwaves on bumblebee colony performance and underscore the use of microcolonies as a valuable tool for studying the effects of extreme weather events. Future research, especially field-based studies replicating natural foraging conditions, is crucial to complement laboratory-based studies to comprehend how heatwaves compromise the performance of pollinators. Such studies may potentially help to identify those species more resilient to climate change, as well as those that are most vulnerable.

Distribution Pattern of Suitable Areas and Corridor Identification of Endangered Ephedra Species in China

The suitable habitat of endangered Ephedra species has been severely threatened and affected by climate change and anthropogenic activities; however, their migration trends and restoration strategies are still relatively understudied. In this study, we utilized the MaxEnt model to simulate the suitable habitats of five endangered Ephedra species in China under current and future climate scenarios. Additionally, we identified significant ecological corridors by incorporating the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable area of Ephedra equisetina Bunge, Ephedra intermedia Schrenk ex Mey, Ephedra sinica Stapf, and Ephedra monosperma Gmel ex Mey comprised 16% of the area in China, while Ephedra rhytidosperma Pachom comprised only 0.05%. The distribution patterns of these five Ephedra species were primarily influenced by altitude, salinity, temperature, and precipitation. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable areas of E. equisetina, E. intermedia, and E. sinica are projected to expand, while that of E. monosperma is expected to contract. Notably, E. rhytidosperma will lose its suitable area in the future. Our identified ecological corridors showed that the first-level corridors encompassed a wider geographical expanse, incorporating E. equisetina, E. intermedia, E. sinica, and E. monosperma, while that of E. rhytidosperma exhibited a shorter length and covered fewer geographical areas. Overall, our study provides novel insights into identifying priority protected areas and protection strategies targeting endangered Ephedra species.

Transcriptome data analysis provides insights into the conservation of Michelia lacei, a plant species with extremely small populations distributed in Yunnan province, China

BACKGROUND

Michelia lacei W.W.Smith (Magnoliaceae), was classified as a Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations (PSESP) by the Yunnan Provincial Government in both action plans of 2012 and 2021. This evergreen tree is known for its high ornamental and scientific value, but it faces significant threats due to its extremely small population size and narrow geographical distribution. The study aims to understand the genetic structure, diversity, and demographic history of this species to inform its conservation strategies.

RESULTS

The analysis of transcriptome data from 64 individuals across seven populations of M. lacei identified three distinct genetic clusters and generated 104,616 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The KM ex-situ population, originating from Longling County, exhibited unique genetic features, suggesting limited gene flow. The genetic diversity was substantial, with significant differences between populations, particularly between the KM lineage and the OTHER lineage. Demographic history inferred from the data indicated population experienced three significant population declines during glaciations, followed by periods of recovery. We estimated the effective population size (Ne) of the KM and OTHER lineages 1,000 years ago were 85,851 and 416,622, respectively. Gene flow analysis suggested past gene flow between populations, but the KM ex-situ population showed no recent gene flow. A total of 805 outlier SNPs, associated with four environmental factors, suggest potential local adaptation and showcase the species' adaptive potential. Particularly, the BZ displayed 515 adaptive loci, highlighting its strong potential for adaptation within this group.

CONCLUSIONS

The comprehensive genomic analysis of M. lacei provides valuable insights into its genetic background and highlights the urgent need for conservation efforts. The study underscores the importance of ex-situ conservation methods, such as seed collection and vegetative propagation, to safeguard genetic diversity and promote population restoration. The preservation of populations like MC and BZ is crucial for maintaining the species' genetic diversity. In-situ conservation measures, including the establishment of in-situ conservation sites and community engagement, are essential to enhance protection awareness and ensure the long-term survival of this threatened plant species.

Decoupling of bird migration from the changing phenology of spring green-up

The green-up of vegetation in spring brings a pulse of food resources that many animals track during migration. However, green-up phenology is changing with climate change, posing an immense challenge for species that time their migrations to coincide with these resource pulses. We evaluated changes in green-up phenology from 2002 to 2021 in relation to the migrations of 150 Western-Hemisphere bird species using eBird citizen science data. We found that green-up phenology has changed within bird migration routes, and yet the migrations of most species align more closely with long-term averages of green-up than with current conditions. Changing green-up strongly influenced phenological mismatches, especially for longer-distance migrants. These results reveal that bird migration may have limited flexibility to adjust to changing vegetation phenology and emphasize the mounting challenge migratory animals face in following en route resources in a changing climate.

Distribution and protection of Thesium chinense Turcz. under climate and land use change

Wild medicinal plants are prominent in the field of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), but their availability is being impacted by human activities and ecological degradation in China. To ensure sustainable use of these resources, it is crucial to scientifically plan areas for wild plant cultivation. Thesium chinense, a known plant antibiotic, has been overharvested in recent years, resulting in a sharp reduction in its wild resources. In this study, we employed three atmospheric circulation models and four socio-economic approaches (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to investigate the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of T. chinense. We also examined changes in its suitable area using the Biomod2 package. Additionally, we utilized the PLUS model to project and analyze future land use changes in climate-stable regions for T. chinense. Our planning for wild tending areas of T. chinense was facilitated by the ZONATION software. Over the next century, the climate-stable regions for T. chinense in China is approximately 383.05 × 104 km2, while the natural habitat in this region will progressively decline. Under the current climate conditions, about 65.06% of the habitats in the high suitable areas of T. chinense are not affected by future land use changes in China. Through hotspot analysis, we identified 17 hotspot cities as ideal areas for the wild tending of T. chinense, including 6 core hotspot cities, 6 sub-hotspot cities, and 5 fringe hotspot cities. These findings contribute to a comprehensive research framework for the cultivation planning of T. chinense and other medicinal plants.

Genetically Engineered Microorganisms and Their Impact on Human Health

The emergence of antibiotic-resistant strains, the decreased effectiveness of conventional therapies, and the side effects have led researchers to seek a safer, more cost-effective, patient-friendly, and effective method that does not develop antibiotic resistance. With progress in synthetic biology and genetic engineering, genetically engineered microorganisms effective in treatment, prophylaxis, drug delivery, and diagnosis have been developed. The present study reviews the types of genetically engineered bacteria and phages, their impacts on diseases, cancer, and metabolic and inflammatory disorders, the biosynthesis of these modified strains, the route of administration, and their effects on the environment. We conclude that genetically engineered microorganisms can be considered promising candidates for adjunctive treatment of diseases and cancers.

Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing rapidly and already impacting biodiversity. Despite its importance in future projections, understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which climate mediates extinction remains limited. We present an integrated approach examining the role of intrinsic traits versus extrinsic climate change in mediating extinction risk for marine invertebrates over the past 485 million years. We found that a combination of physiological traits and the magnitude of climate change is necessary to explain marine invertebrate extinction patterns. Our results suggest that taxa previously identified as extinction resistant may still succumb to extinction if the magnitude of climate change is great enough.

Conservation Mitonuclear Replacement: Facilitated mitochondrial adaptation for a changing world

Most species will not be able to migrate fast enough to cope with climate change, nor evolve quickly enough with current levels of genetic variation. Exacerbating the problem are anthropogenic influences on adaptive potential, including the prevention of gene flow through habitat fragmentation and the erosion of genetic diversity in small, bottlenecked populations. Facilitated adaptation, or assisted evolution, offers a way to augment adaptive genetic variation via artificial selection, induced hybridization, or genetic engineering. One key source of genetic variation, particularly for climatic adaptation, are the core metabolic genes encoded by the mitochondrial genome. These genes influence environmental tolerance to heat, drought, and hypoxia, but must interact intimately and co-evolve with a suite of important nuclear genes. These coadapted mitonuclear genes form some of the important reproductive barriers between species. Mitochondrial genomes can and do introgress between species in an adaptive manner, and they may co-introgress with nuclear genes important for maintaining mitonuclear compatibility. Managers should consider the relevance of mitonuclear genetic variability in conservation decision-making, including as a tool for facilitating adaptation. I propose a novel technique dubbed Conservation Mitonuclear Replacement (CmNR), which entails replacing the core metabolic machinery of a threatened species-the mitochondrial genome and key nuclear loci-with those from a closely related species or a divergent population, which may be better-adapted to climatic changes or carry a lower genetic load. The most feasible route to CmNR is to combine CRISPR-based nuclear genetic editing with mitochondrial replacement and assisted reproductive technologies. This method preserves much of an organism's phenotype and could allow populations to persist in the wild when no other suitable conservation options exist. The technique could be particularly important on mountaintops, where rising temperatures threaten an alarming number of species with almost certain extinction in the next century.

Climate change increases threat to plant diversity in tropical forests of Central America and southern Mexico

Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061-2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region's (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species' vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58-67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species' relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change.