Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming

Arctic Amplification of marine heatwaves under global warming

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) and total heat exposures (THEs), extreme warming events occurring across the global oceans, seriously threaten marine ecosystems and coastal communities as the climate warms. However, future changes in MHWs and THEs in the Arctic Ocean, where unique marine ecosystems are present, are still unclear. Here, based on the latest CMIP6 climate simulations, we find that both MHWs and THEs in the Arctic Ocean are anticipated to intensify in a warming climate, mainly due to Arctic sea ice decline and long-term warming trend, respectively. Particularly striking is the projected rise in MHW mean intensity during the 21st century in the Arctic Ocean, surpassing the global average by more than sevenfold under the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario. This phenomenon, coined the 'Arctic MHW Amplification', underscores an impending and disproportionately elevated threat to the Arctic marine life, necessitating targeted conservation and adaptive strategies.

Role of atmospheric rivers in shaping long term Arctic moisture variability

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) reaching high-latitudes in summer contribute to the majority of climatological poleward water vapor transport into the Arctic. This transport has exhibited long term changes over the past decades, which cannot be entirely explained by anthropogenic forcing according to ensemble model responses. Here, through observational analyses and model experiments in which winds are adjusted to match observations, we demonstrate that low-frequency, large-scale circulation changes in the Arctic play a decisive role in regulating AR activity and thus inducing the recent upsurge of this activity in the region. It is estimated that the trend in summertime AR activity may contribute to 36% of the increasing trend of atmospheric summer moisture over the entire Arctic since 1979 and account for over half of the humidity trends in certain areas experiencing significant recent warming, such as western Greenland, northern Europe, and eastern Siberia. This indicates that AR activity, mostly driven by strong synoptic weather systems often regarded as stochastic, may serve as a vital mechanism in regulating long term moisture variability in the Arctic.

An overview of scholarly literature on navigation hazards in Arctic shipping routes

Maritime transport plays a crucial role in international trade. As the number and tonnage of ships continue to increase, traditional shipping routes are becoming progressively congested. The development of Arctic shipping routes has the potential to significantly improve trade efficiency and decrease reliance on traditional shipping routes. At the same time, the harsh navigation conditions in the Arctic pose a huge challenge to ships crossing the Arctic shipping routes. To address the above issues, this paper reviews the natural, navigational environment and unique navigational modes of ships in the Arctic shipping routes. Furthermore, the navigational risks caused by factors including low temperature, sea ice, poor visibility, communication, lack of infrastructure, lack of navigational experience, lack of historical data, high collision risk, and complex navigational environment are summarized and analyzed, providing a reference for researchers and policymakers to conduct research related to Arctic shipping routes.

Analysis of taiga and tundra lake browning trends from 2002 to 2021 using MODIS data

Lakes in taiga and tundra regions may be silently undergoing changes due to global warming. One of those changes is browning in lake color. The browning interacts with the carbon cycle, ecosystem dynamics, and water quality in freshwater systems. However, spatiotemporal variabilities of browning in these regions have not been well documented. Using MODIS remote sensing reflectance at near ultraviolet wavelengths from 2002 to 2021 on the Google Earth Engine platform, we quantified long-term browning trends across 7616 lakes (larger than 10 km2) in taiga and tundra biomes. These lakes showed an overall decreased trend in browning (Theil-Sen Slope = 0.00015), with ∼36% of these lakes showing browning trends, and ∼1% of these lakes showing statistically significant (p-value <0.05) browning trends. The browning trends more likely occurred in small lakes in high latitude, low ground ice content regions, where air temperature increased and precipitation decreased. While temperature is projected to increase in response to climate change, our results provide one means to understand how biogeochemical cycles and ecological dynamics respond to climate change.

Proof of evidence of changes in global terrestrial biomes using historic and recent NDVI time series

Climate change affects plant dynamics and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. This study aims to investigate temporal changes in global vegetation coverage and biomes during the past three decades. We compared historic annual NDVI time series (1982, 1983, 1984 and 1985) with recent ones (2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018), captured from NOAA-AVHRR satellite observations. To correct the NDVI time series for missing data and outliers, we applied the Harmonic Analysis of Time Series (HANTS) algorithm. The NDVI time series were decomposed in their significant amplitude and phase given their periodic fluctuation, except for ever green vegetation. Our findings show that the average NDVI values in most biomes have increased significantly (F-value<0.01) by 0.05 ndvi units over during the past three decades, except in tundra, and deserts and xeric shrublands. The highest rates of change in the harmonic components were observed in the northern hemisphere, mainly above 30° latitude. Worldwide, the mean annual phase reduced by 9° corresponding to a 9 days shift in the beginning of the growing season. Annual phases in the recent time series reduced significantly as compared to the historic time series in the five major global biomes: by 14.1, 14.8, 10.6, 9.5, and 22.8 days in boreal forests/taiga; Mediterranean forests, woodlands, and scrubs; temperate conifer forests; temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublands; and deserts, and xeric shrublands, respectively. In tropical and subtropical biomes, however, changes in the annual phase of vegetation coverage were not statistically significant. The decrease in the level of phases and acceleration of growth and changes in plant phenology indicate the increase in temperature and climate changes of the planet.

Characterisation of 'Candidatus Methylobacter titanis' sp. nov., a putative novel species of Methylobacter clade 2 and their distribution in sediments of freshwater lakes in maritime Antarctica

Global warming has a strong impact on the polar regions, in particular, the Antarctic Peninsula and nearby islands. Methane (CH₄) is a major factor in climate change and mitigation of CH₄ emissions can be accomplished through microbial oxidation by methanotrophic bacteria. Understanding this biological process is crucial given the shortage of research carried out in this geographical area. The aim of this study was to characterise psychrophilic enrichment cultures of aerobic methanotrophs obtained from lake sediments of the Fildes Peninsula (King George Island, South Shetland Islands) and revealing the distribution of the genus Methylobacter in different lake sediments of the peninsula. Four stable methanotrophic enrichment cultures were obtained and analysed by metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs). The phylogeny of methanotroph MAGs recovered from these enrichment cultures based on the 16S rRNA gene showed that K-2018 MAG008 and D1-2020 MAG004^Ts clustered within the Methylobacter clade 2, with high similarity to Methylobacter tundripaludum SV96^T (97.88 and 98.56% respectively). However, the average nucleotide identity (ANI) and digital DNA-DNA hybridization (dDDH) values with M. tundripaludum were < 95% (84.8 and 85.0%, respectively) and < 70% (30.2 and 30.3%, respectively), suggesting that they represent a putative novel species for which the name 'Ca. Methylobacter titanis' is proposed. This is the first species of clade 2 of the genus Methylobacter obtained from Antarctica. The bacterial diversity assessed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing of 21 samples of different lakes (water column and sediments) revealed 54 ASVs associated with methanotrophs and the genus Methylobacter as the most abundant. These results suggest that aerobic methanotrophs belonging to the Methylobacter clade 2 would be the main responsible for CH₄ oxidation in these sediments.

Vertical Gradient of Size-Resolved Aerosol Compositions over the Arctic Reveals Cloud Processed Aerosol in-Cloud and above Cloud

Arctic aerosols play a significant role in aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions, but ground-based measurements are insufficient to explain the interaction of aerosols and clouds in a vertically stratified Arctic atmosphere. This study shows the vertical variability of a size resolved aerosol composition via a tethered balloon system at Oliktok Point, Alaska, at different cloud layers for two representative case studies (background aerosol and polluted conditions). Multimodal microspectroscopy analysis during the background case reveals a broadening of chemically specific size distribution above the cloud top with a high abundance of sulfate particles and core-shell morphology, suggesting possible cloud processing of aerosols. The polluted case also indicates broadening of aerosol size distribution at the upper layer within the clouds with the dominance of carbonaceous particles, which suggests that the carbonaceous particles play a potential role in modulating Arctic cloud properties.

Plant colonization mediates the microbial community dynamics in glacier forelands of the Tibetan Plateau

It has long been recognized that pH mediates community structure changes in glacier foreland soils. Here, we showed that pH changes resulted from plant colonization. Plant colonization reduced pH and increased soil organic carbon, which increased bacterial diversity, changed the community structure of both bacteria and fungi, enhanced environmental filtering, and improved microbial network disturbance resistance.

Seasonal cycles and long-term trends of arctic tropospheric aerosols based on CALIPSO lidar observations

Notable warming trends have been observed in the Arctic, with tropospheric aerosols being one of the key drivers. Here the seasonal cycles of three-dimensional (3D) distributions of aerosol extinction coefficients (AECs) and frequency of occurrences (FoOs) for different aerosol subtypes in the troposphere over the Arctic from 2007 to 2019 are characterized capitalizing on Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) Level-3 gridded aerosol profile product. Seasonal contributions of total and type-dependent aerosols through their partitioning within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and free troposphere (FT) are also quantified utilizing the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) PBL height data. The results show substantial seasonal and geographical dependence in the distribution of aerosols over the Arctic. Sulfate, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) contribute most of the total AEC, with Eurasia being the largest contributor. The vertical structure of AECs and FoOs over the Arctic demonstrates that the vertical influence of aerosols is higher in eastern Siberia and North America than in northern Eurasia and its coasts. When the total aerosol optical depth (TAOD) is partitioned into the PBL and FT, results indicate that the contributions of TAOD within the FT tend to be more significant, especially in summer, with the FT contributes 64.2% and 69.2% of TAOD over the lower (i.e., 60° N-70° N) and high (i.e., north of 70° N) Arctic, respectively. Additionally, seasonal trend analyses suggest Arctic TAOD exhibits a multi-year negative trend in winter, spring, and autumn and a positive trend in summer during 2007-2019, due to an overall decrease in sulfate from weakened anthropogenic emissions and a significant increase in BC and OC from enhanced biomass burning activities. Overall, this study has potential implications for understanding the seasonal cycles and trends in Arctic aerosols.

Observing the Central Arctic Atmosphere and Surface with University of Colorado uncrewed aircraft systems

Over a five-month time window between March and July 2020, scientists deployed two small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS) to the central Arctic Ocean as part of legs three and four of the MOSAiC expedition. These sUAS were flown to measure the thermodynamic and kinematic state of the lower atmosphere, including collecting information on temperature, pressure, humidity and winds between the surface and 1 km, as well as to document ice properties, including albedo, melt pond fraction, and open water amounts. The atmospheric state flights were primarily conducted by the DataHawk2 sUAS, which was operated primarily in a profiling manner, while the surface property flights were conducted using the HELiX sUAS, which flew grid patterns, profiles, and hover flights. In total, over 120 flights were conducted and over 48 flight hours of data were collected, sampling conditions that included temperatures as low as −35 °C and as warm as 15 °C, spanning the summer melt season.

Measurement(s)	NetCDF files include full description of all variables
Technology Type(s)	Uncrewed Aircraft Systems

Atmospheric forcing dominates winter Barents-Kara sea ice variability on interannual to decadal time scales

The last two decades have seen a dramatic decline and strong year-to-year variability in Arctic winter sea ice, especially in the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS), changes that have been linked to extreme midlatitude weather and climate. It has been suggested that these changes in winter sea ice arise largely from a combined effect of oceanic and atmospheric processes, but the relative importance of these processes is not well established. Here, we explore the role of atmospheric circulation patterns on BKS winter sea ice variability and trends using observations and climate model simulations. We find that BKS winter sea ice variability is primarily driven by a strong anticyclonic anomaly over the region, which explains more than 50% of the interannual variability in BKS sea-ice concentration (SIC). Recent intensification of the anticyclonic anomaly has warmed and moistened the lower atmosphere in the BKS by poleward transport of moist-static energy and local processes, resulting in an increase in downwelling longwave radiation. Our results demonstrate that the observed BKS winter sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric, rather than oceanic, processes and suggest a persistent role of atmospheric forcing in future Arctic winter sea ice loss.

Atmospheric temperature, water vapour and liquid water path from two microwave radiometers during MOSAiC

The microwave radiometers HATPRO (Humidity and Temperature Profiler) and MiRAC-P (Microwave Radiometer for Arctic Clouds - Passive) continuously measured radiation emitted from the atmosphere throughout the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of the Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition on board the research vessel Polarstern. From the measured brightness temperatures, we have retrieved atmospheric variables using statistical methods in a temporal resolution of 1 s covering October 2019 to October 2020. The integrated water vapour (IWV) is derived individually from both radiometers. In addition, we present the liquid water path (LWP), temperature and absolute humidity profiles from HATPRO. To prove the quality and to estimate uncertainty, the data sets are compared to radiosonde measurements from Polarstern. The comparison shows an extremely good agreement for IWV, with standard deviations of 0.08-0.19 kg m-2 (0.39-1.47 kg m-2) in dry (moist) situations. The derived profiles of temperature and humidity denote uncertainties of 0.7-1.8 K and 0.6-0.45 gm-3 in 0-2 km altitude.

Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models

Arctic near-surface air temperature warms much faster than the global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. The change of the underlying Arctic Ocean could influence climate through its interaction with sea ice, atmosphere, and the global ocean, but it is less well understood. Here, we show that the upper 2000 m of the Arctic Ocean warms at 2.3 times the global mean rate within this depth range averaged over the 21st century in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 scenario. We call this phenomenon the "Arctic Ocean Amplification." The amplified Arctic Ocean warming can be attributed to a substantial increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which will continue outweighing sea surface heat loss in the future. Arctic Amplification of both the atmosphere and ocean indicates that the Arctic as a whole is one of Earth's regions most susceptible to climate change.

General circulation and global heat transport in a quadrupling CO2 pulse experiment

To investigate the response of the general circulation and global transport of heat through both atmosphere and ocean to two-types of carbon dioxide removal scenario, we performed an earth system model experiment in which we imposed a pulse-type quadrupling of CO2 forcing for 50 years and a gradual peak-and-decline of four-time CO2 forcing. We found that the results from two experiments are qualitatively similar to each other. During the forcing-on period, a dominant warming in the upper troposphere over the tropics and on the surface at high latitudes led to a slowdown in the Hadley circulation, but the poleward atmospheric energy transport was enhanced due to an increase in specific humidity. This counteracted the reduction in poleward oceanic energy transport owing to the suppression of the meridional overturning circulation in both Hemispheres. After returning the original CO2 level, the hemispheric thermal contrast was reversed, causing a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone. To reduce the hemispheric thermal contrast, the northward energy transports in the atmosphere and ocean surface were enhanced while further weakening of the global-scale Atlantic meridional overturning circulation led to southward energy transport in the deep ocean.

Decadal changes in global phytoplankton compositions influenced by biogeochemical variables

The global environmental changes owing to natural and anthropogenic influences are challenging the structure and functioning of the ocean ecosystem. The complex processes interacting within the physical, chemical, and biological environment at different spatio-temporal scales and their impact on the ocean ecosystem processes are yet to be investigated. A long term trend on phytoplankton biomass in terms of Chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a), phytoplankton compositions and the processes that control the variability is required for understanding the ocean ecosystem. This study investigated decadal trends (2002-2015) of phytoplankton composition and biogeochemical parameters over the Global Ocean (GO), Southern Ocean (SO), and the Arctic Ocean (AO) using ocean color remote sensing and assimilated data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ocean biogeochemical model. The results revealed the dominance of larger cell phytoplankton mainly diatoms throughout the SO and AO; however, the coccolithophores dominate in the remaining part of the GO. Analysis of nutrients showed that nitrate is not a limiting factor for the variability of phytoplankton biomass in the SO and AO. The low nitrate concentration influenced in the rest of the GO. The photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) limiting the phytoplankton biomass and composition in the SO and AO. Although the SO is known as the high nutrient low chlorophyll (HNLC) region of the GO, the low iron concentration along with the PAR co-limits the growth of phytoplankton biomass. Trend analysis showed that an increase in Chl-a and diatoms in the SO and AO. In contrast, it declined significantly in the other regions of the GO, in response to the consistent increase in sea surface temperature. The results indicated that, shifting of phytoplankton community from regional to global scale have a greater implication for climate change and marine ecosystem.

Insight on Poleward Moisture and Energy Transport into the Arctic from ERA5

With the new-generation reanalysis product (ERA5), the spatiotemporal characteristics of poleward atmospheric moisture and energy transport over the past four decades (1979–2020) were examined. The main channels of atmospheric transport entering the Arctic in the Northern Hemisphere include the Chukchi Sea at 170° W, Baffin Bay at 50° W, North Atlantic at 0° E, and central Siberia at 90° E. Summer (winter) is characterized by high moisture (energy) transport across 70° N. No clear trend in moisture transport was found, whereas the winter and spring energy transport are declining significantly at a rate of −7.31 × 105 W/m/a (99% confidence) and −6.04 × 105 W/m/a (95% confidence), respectively. Meanwhile, an increasing trend was found in summer (4.48 × 105 W/m/a, 95% confidence) and autumn (3.61 × 105 W/m/a, not significant). The relationship between atmospheric moisture and energy transport and different large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, including the Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Dipole Anomaly (DA), was explored. Among them, DA was identified as the most favorable pattern in relation to moisture and/or energy intrusion into the Arctic. As a result, the surface air temperature increases are more pronounced over most of the central Arctic under the regulation of DA.

Degrading permafrost river catchments and their impact on Arctic Ocean nearshore processes

Arctic warming is causing ancient perennially frozen ground (permafrost) to thaw, resulting in ground collapse, and reshaping of landscapes. This threatens Arctic peoples' infrastructure, cultural sites, and land-based natural resources. Terrestrial permafrost thaw and ongoing intensification of hydrological cycles also enhance the amount and alter the type of organic carbon (OC) delivered from land to Arctic nearshore environments. These changes may affect coastal processes, food web dynamics and marine resources on which many traditional ways of life rely. Here, we examine how future projected increases in runoff and permafrost thaw from two permafrost-dominated Siberian watersheds-the Kolyma and Lena, may alter carbon turnover rates and OC distributions through river networks. We demonstrate that the unique composition of terrestrial permafrost-derived OC can cause significant increases to aquatic carbon degradation rates (20 to 60% faster rates with 1% permafrost OC). We compile results on aquatic OC degradation and examine how strengthening Arctic hydrological cycles may increase the connectivity between terrestrial landscapes and receiving nearshore ecosystems, with potential ramifications for coastal carbon budgets and ecosystem structure. To address the future challenges Arctic coastal communities will face, we argue that it will become essential to consider how nearshore ecosystems will respond to changing coastal inputs and identify how these may affect the resiliency and availability of essential food resources.

Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure

The impact of climate change on soil temperatures at Kuujjuaq, Quebec in northern Canada is assessed. First, long-term historical soil temperature records (1967–1995) are statistically analyzed to provide a climatological baseline for soils at 5 to 150 cm depths. Next, the nature of the relationship between atmospheric variables and soil temperature are determined using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a climatological data set. SDSM was found to replicate historic soil temperatures well and used to project soil temperatures for the remainder of the century using climate model output Canadian Second Generation Earth System Model (CanESM2). Three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) were used from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This study found that the soil temperature at this location may warm at 0.9 to 1.2 °C per decade at various depths. Annual soil temperatures at all depths are projected to rise to above 0 °C for the 1997–2026 period for all climate scenarios. The melting soil poses a hazard to the airport infrastructure and will require adaptation measures.

Exploring the Thermal Microcosms at the Forest Floor—A Case Study of a Temperate Forest

With the expected changes in summer weather due to global warming, knowledge of the microclimatic variability at the forest floor dramatically increased in importance for silviculture, wildfire management and biodiversity issues. Thus, during the warm season in 2014, thermal aspects within a heterogeneous forest were recorded at nine sites and compared to data from a nearby weather station. It was found that soil (−5 cm) and near-surface (0–2 cm) temperatures under shaded conditions stayed remarkably cooler than temporarily or fully radiated spots inside and outside the forest; largest differences occurred in maxima (July: 22.5 °C to 53.5 °C). Solar radiation was found to be the main driver for the strong heating of near-surface microhabitats, which could be reinforced by the vegetation type (moss). The weather station widely reflected the average condition on forest floor, but lacks the biological meaningful temperature extremes. The measurement system (internal versus external sensor) resulted in differences of up to 6 K. The findings underline the importance of old or dense stands for maintaining cool microrefugia. However, also the need for careful selection and analysis of microclimatic measurements in forests, representative for specific microhabitats, under consideration of ground vegetation modifications.

No evidence of Phago-mixotropy in Micromonas polaris (Mamiellophyceae), the Dominant Picophytoplankton Species in the Arctic

In the Arctic Ocean, the small green alga Micromonas polaris dominates picophytoplankton during the summer months but is also present in winter. It has been previously hypothesized to be phago-mixotrophic (capable of bacteria ingestion) based on laboratory and field experiments. Prey uptake was analyzed in several M. polaris strains isolated from different regions and depths of the Arctic Ocean and in Ochromonas triangulata, a known phago-mixotroph used as a control. Measuring ingestion of either fluorescent beads or fluorescently labeled bacteria by flow cytometry, we found no evidence of phago-mixotrophy in any M. polaris strain while O. triangulata was ingesting both beads and bacteria. In addition, in silico predictions revealed that members of the genus Micromonas lack a genetic signature of phagocytotic capacity.

Historical Landscape Use of Migratory Caribou: New Insights From Old Antlers

Accumulations of shed caribou antlers (Rangifer tarandus) are valuable resources for expanding the temporal scope with which we evaluate seasonal landscape use of herds. Female caribou shed their antlers within days of giving birth, thus marking calving ground locations. Antler geochemistry (87Sr/86Sr) reflects the isotopic signature of regions used during antler growth, thereby providing data on a second component of seasonal landscape use. Here, we evaluate shed caribou antlers from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska. The Central and Eastern regions of the Coastal Plain are calving grounds for the Porcupine Caribou Herd, while the Western Coastal Plain supports calving by the Central Arctic Herd. We found that antler 87Sr/86Sr from the Central and Eastern Coastal Plain were isotopically indistinguishable, while antler 87Sr/86Sr from the Western Coastal Plain was significantly smaller. For each region, we compared isotopic data for “recent” antlers, which overlap the bulk of standardized state and federal caribou monitoring (early 1980s and younger), with “historical” antlers shed in years predating these records (from the 1300s to the 1970s). For Porcupine Herd females calving in the Arctic Refuge, comparisons of antler 87Sr/86Sr through time indicate that summer ranges have been consistent since at least the 1960s. However, changes between historical and recent antler 87Sr/86Sr for the Central Arctic Herd indicate a shift in summer landscape use after the late 1970s. The timing of this shift is coincident with multiple factors including increased infrastructural development in their range related to hydrocarbon extraction. Accumulations of shed caribou antlers and their isotope geochemistry extend modern datasets by decades to centuries and provide valuable baseline data for evaluating potential anthropogenic and other influences on caribou migration and landscape use.

An Efficient Ice Sheet/Earth System Model Spin-up Procedure for CESM2-CISM2: Description, Evaluation, and Broader Applicability

Spinning up a highly complex, coupled Earth system model (ESM) is a time consuming and computationally demanding exercise. For models with interactive ice sheet components, this becomes a major challenge, as ice sheets are sensitive to bidirectional feedback processes and equilibrate over glacial timescales of up to many millennia. This work describes and demonstrates a computationally tractable, iterative procedure for spinning up a contemporary, highly complex ESM that includes an interactive ice sheet component. The procedure alternates between a computationally expensive coupled configuration and a computationally cheaper configuration where the atmospheric component is replaced by a data model. By periodically regenerating atmospheric forcing consistent with the coupled system, the data atmosphere remains adequately constrained to ensure that the broader model state evolves realistically. The applicability of the method is demonstrated by spinning up the preindustrial climate in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), coupled to the Community Ice Sheet Model Version 2 (CISM2) over Greenland. The equilibrium climate state is similar to the control climate from a coupled simulation with a prescribed Greenland ice sheet, indicating that the iterative procedure is consistent with a traditional spin-up approach without interactive ice sheets. These results suggest that the iterative method presented here provides a faster and computationally cheaper method for spinning up a highly complex ESM, with or without interactive ice sheet components. The method described here has been used to develop the climate/ice sheet initial conditions for transient, ice sheet-enabled simulations with CESM2-CISM2 in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).

Data variability or paradigm shift? Slow versus fast recovery of biological soil crusts-a review

Biological soil crusts, known also as biocrusts, provide valuable ecosystem services, especially in arid and semiarid regions. They may affect geomorphological (stability), hydrological (infiltration, evaporation), biochemical (carbon and nitrogen fixation) and ecological (germination and growth of vascular plants) processes, and their disturbance may have important ecological consequences. The common view, as reflected in hundreds of papers, regards biocrusts as having extremely slow recovery with characteristic time of up to hundreds and even thousands of years. Long recovery time implies that disturbance or climate change may have severe long-lasting consequences even once the conditions return to their initial state, triggering ample efforts to hasten biocrust recovery by inoculation. We critically analyze available estimates of the crust recovery time and present systematic measurements and theoretical considerations that attest to relatively rapid recovery of the crusts. We conclude that the likely recovery time of cyanobacterial crusts is 5-10 years, while that of lichen- and moss-dominated crusts is 10-20 years. Subsequently, costly and potentially negative effects to the ecosystem during inoculation should be weighed against the fast natural recovery of the biocrusts.

Roles of Thermokarst Lakes in a Warming World

Permafrost covers a quarter of the northern hemisphere land surface and contains twice the amount of carbon that is currently present in the atmosphere. Future climate change is expected to reduce its near-surface cover by over 90% by the end of the 21st century, leading to thermokarst lake formation. Thermokarst lakes are point sources of carbon dioxide and methane which release long-term carbon stocks into the atmosphere, thereby initiating a positive climate feedback potentially contributing up to a 0.39°C rise of surface air temperatures by 2300. This review describes the potential role of thermokarst lakes in a warming world and the microbial mechanisms that underlie their contributions to the global greenhouse gas budget.

The intensification of Arctic warming as a result of CO2 physiological forcing

Stomatal closure is one of the main physiological responses to increasing CO2 concentration, which leads to a reduction in plant water loss. This response has the potential to trigger changes in the climate system by regulating surface energy budgets-a phenomenon known as CO2 physiological forcing. However, its remote impacts on the Arctic climate system are unclear. Here we show that vegetation at high latitudes enhances the Arctic amplification via remote and time-delayed physiological forcing processes. Surface warming occurs at mid-to-high latitudes due to the physiological acclimation-induced reduction in evaporative cooling and resultant increase in sensible heat flux. This excessive surface heat energy is transported to the Arctic ocean and contributes to the sea ice loss, thereby enhancing Arctic warming. The surface warming in the Arctic is further amplified by local feedbacks, and consequently the contribution of physiological effects to Arctic warming represents about 10% of radiative forcing effects.

A framework for experimental scenarios of global change in marine systems using coral reefs as a case study

Understanding the consequences of rising CO₂ and warming on marine ecosystems is a pressing issue in ecology. Manipulative experiments that assess responses of biota to future ocean warming and acidification conditions form a necessary basis for expectations on how marine taxa may respond. Although designing experiments in the context of local variability is most appropriate, local temperature and CO₂ characteristics are often unknown as such measures necessitate significant resources, and even less is known about local future scenarios. To help address these issues, we summarize current uncertainties in CO₂ emission trajectories and climate sensitivity, examine region-specific changes in the ocean, and present a straightforward global framework to guide experimental designs. We advocate for the inclusion of multiple plausible future scenarios of predicted levels of ocean warming and acidification in forthcoming experimental research. Growing a robust experimental base is crucial to understanding the prospect form and function of marine ecosystems in the Anthropocene.

Subsurface ocean flywheel of coupled climate variability in the Barents Sea hotspot of global warming

Accelerated shrinkage of the Arctic sea ice cover is the main reason for the recent Arctic amplification of global warming. There is growing evidence that the ocean is involved in this phenomenon, but to what extent remains unknown. Here, a unique dataset of hydrographic profiles is used to infer the regional pattern of recent subsurface ocean warming and construct a skillful predictor for surface climate variability in the Barents Sea region - a hotspot of the recent climate change. It is shown that, in the era of satellite observations (1981–2018), summertime temperature anomalies of Atlantic water heading for the Arctic Ocean explain more than 80% of the variance of the leading mode of variability in the following winter sea ice concentration over the entire Northern Hemisphere, with main centers of action just in the Barents Sea region. Results from empirical forecast experiments demonstrate that predictability of the wintertime sea ice cover in the Barents Sea from subsurface ocean heat anomalies might have increased since the Arctic climate shift of the mid-2000s. In contrast, the corresponding predictability of the sea ice cover in the nearby Greenland Sea has been lost.

Inter-relationship between subtropical Pacific sea surface temperature, Arctic sea ice concentration, and North Atlantic Oscillation in recent summers

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentrations in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in summer are investigated over the period 1980-2016. It is shown that the Arctic response to the remote impact of the Pacific SST is more dominant in recent summers, leading to a frequent occurrence of the negative phase of the NAO following the STWCPSST increase. Lag-correlations of STWCPSST positive (negative) anomalies in spring with the negative (positive) NAO and SICBS loss (recovery) in summer have increased over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at the 5 percent level. Both observations and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments suggest that the positive STWCPSST anomaly and subsequent planetary-scale wave propagation act to increase the Arctic upper-level geopotential heights and temperatures in the following season. This response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. Connected with this atmospheric response, SIC and surface albedo decrease with an increase in the surface net shortwave flux over the Beaufort Sea. Examination of the surface energy balance (radiative and turbulent fluxes) reveals that surplus energy that can heat the surface increases over the Arctic, enhancing the SIC reduction.

Vertical Feedback Mechanism of Winter Arctic Amplification and Sea Ice Loss

Sea ice reduction is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas. Several mechanisms are proposed to explain the accelerated loss of Arctic sea ice, which remains to be controversial. In the present study, detailed physical mechanism of sea ice reduction in winter (December-February) is identified from the daily ERA interim reanalysis data. Downward longwave radiation is an essential element for sea ice reduction, but can primarily be sustained by excessive upward heat flux from the sea surface exposed to air in the region of sea ice loss. The increased turbulent heat flux is used to increase air temperature and specific humidity in the lower troposphere, which in turn increases downward longwave radiation. This feedback process is clearly observed in the Barents and Kara Seas in the reanalysis data. A quantitative assessment reveals that this feedback process is being amplified at the rate of ~8.9% every year during 1979-2016. Availability of excessive heat flux is necessary for the maintenance of this feedback process; a similar mechanism of sea ice loss is expected to take place over the sea-ice covered polar region, when sea ice is not fully recovered in winter.

Seasonal energy exchange in sea ice retreat regions contributes to differences in projected Arctic warming

Rapid and, in many cases, unprecedented Arctic climate changes are having far-reaching impacts on natural and human systems. Despite state-of-the-art climate models capturing the rapid nature of Arctic climate change, termed Arctic amplification, they significantly disagree on its magnitude. Using a regional, process-oriented surface energy budget analysis, we argue that differences in seasonal energy exchanges in sea ice retreat regions via increased absorption and storage of sunlight in summer and increased upward surface turbulent fluxes in fall/winter contribute to the inter-model spread. Models able to more widely disperse energy drawn from the surface in sea ice retreat regions warm more, suggesting that differences in the local Arctic atmospheric circulation response contribute to the inter-model spread. We find that the principle mechanisms driving the inter-model spread in Arctic amplification operate locally on regional scales, requiring an improved understanding of atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions in sea ice retreat regions to reduce the spread.

Warming in the Arctic Captured by productivity variability at an Arctic Fjord over the past two centuries

Arctic fjords feature among some of the most climate-sensitive regions on the planet. The site of this study–Kongsfjorden–is one such fjord in which sedimentation and sediment geochemistry reflect climate-mediated changes in glacial melt and marine primary productivity. Here, we have shown that the fjord is particularly sensitive to the changing melt dynamics of the surrounding glaciers which are a direct consequence of warming/cooling in the region and is reflected in the productivity at the fjord. Warming increases meltwater influx into the fjord leading to enhanced turbidity which results in lower productivity. A multi-proxy study (sedimentary organic matter content, carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios, and microfossil abundance) using a 21 cm long sediment core from the Kongsfjorden helped us reconstruct warming driven melt-dynamics history for the past two centuries. Proxy data show a general decreasing trend in productivity along with a few excursions over the last two centuries. Warming driven glacial-melt dynamics appears to be the dominant control on productivity throughout the span of the core.

Global and Arctic climate sensitivity enhanced by changes in North Pacific heat flux

Arctic amplification is a consequence of surface albedo, cloud, and temperature feedbacks, as well as poleward oceanic and atmospheric heat transport. However, the relative impact of changes in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns and ocean heat flux sourced from different regions on Arctic temperatures are not well constrained. We modify ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes in the North Pacific and North Atlantic in a climate model to determine the sensitivity of Arctic temperatures to zonal heterogeneities in northern hemisphere SST patterns. Both positive and negative ocean heat flux perturbations from the North Pacific result in greater global and Arctic surface air temperature anomalies than equivalent magnitude perturbations from the North Atlantic; a response we primarily attribute to greater moisture flux from the subpolar extratropics to Arctic. Enhanced poleward latent heat and moisture transport drive sea-ice retreat and low-cloud formation in the Arctic, amplifying Arctic surface warming through the ice-albedo feedback and infrared warming effect of low clouds. Our results imply that global climate sensitivity may be dependent on patterns of ocean heat flux in the northern hemisphere.

The Effect of Arctic Dust on the Retrieval of Satellite Derived Sea and Ice Surface Temperatures

Large quantities of dust are transported annually to the Arctic, primarily from Asian deserts. The influx of dust into the polar environment changes the radiative properties of clouds while the deposition of dust onto ice and snow decreases the surface albedo. Atmospheric and surface dust may be identified with space borne radiometers by comparing infrared energy in the 11 μm and 12 μm regime. Between 2007 and 2017 satellite infrared data revealed persistent low-level dust clouds in the vicinity of Amundsen Gulf in the Western Canadian Arctic during the melting season. Evidence suggests that the subsequent deposition of atmospheric dust in the region affected the surface emissivity in the thermal infrared regime. As a result, satellite derived sea and ice surface temperature algorithms were rendered inaccurate in these areas. Moreover, the ubiquitous nature of dust in the region may play a role in the rapidly vanishing cryosphere.

Spring warming in Yukon mountains is not amplified by the snow albedo feedback

Decreasing spring snow cover may amplify Arctic warming through the snow albedo feedback. To examine the impact of snowmelt on increasing temperature we used a 5,000 m elevation gradient in Yukon, Canada, extending from valley-bottom conifer forests, through middle elevation tundra, to high elevation icefields, to compare validated downscaled reanalysis air temperature patterns across elevational bands characterized by different patterns of spring snowmelt. From 2000 to 2014 we observed surface warming of 0.01 °C/a·1,000 m in May (0.14 °C/a at 1,000 m to 0.19 °C/a at 5,000 m), and uniform cooling of 0.09 °C/a in June at all elevations. May temperature trends across elevationally dependent land cover types were highly correlated with each other despite large variations in albedo and snow cover trends. Furthermore, a clear dependency of infrared skin temperature on snow cover mediated albedo decline was observed in tundra, but this was insufficient to influence average diurnal air temperature. We observed negative June temperature trends which we attribute to increasing daytime cloud cover because albedo and snow cover trends were unchanging. We conclude that 8-day and monthly averaged Spring air temperature trends are responding to a synoptic external forcing that is much stronger than the snow albedo feedback in sub-Arctic mountains.

Seasonal associations with novel climates for North American migratory bird populations

Determining the implications of global climate change for highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds requires a perspective that is spatiotemporally comprehensive and ecologically relevant. Here, we document how passerine bird species that migrate within the Western Hemisphere (n = 77) are associated with projected novel climates across the full annual cycle. Following expectations, highly novel climates occurred on tropical non-breeding grounds and the least novel climates occurred on temperate breeding grounds. Contrary to expectations, highly novel climates also occurred within temperate regions during the transition from breeding to autumn migration. This outcome was caused by lower inter-annual climatic variability occurring in combination with stronger warming projections. Thus, migrants are projected to encounter novel climates across the majority of their annual cycle, with a pronounced peak occurring when juveniles are leaving the nest and preparing to embark on their first migratory journey, which may adversely affect their chances of survival.

Poleward upgliding Siberian atmospheric rivers over sea ice heat up Arctic upper air

We carried out upper air measurements with radiosondes during the summer over the Arctic Ocean from an icebreaker moving poleward from an ice-free region, through the ice edge, and into a region of thick ice. Rapid warming of the Arctic is a significant environmental issue that occurs not only at the surface but also throughout the troposphere. In addition to the widely accepted mechanisms responsible for the increase of tropospheric warming during the summer over the Arctic, we showed a new potential contributing process to the increase, based on our direct observations and supporting numerical simulations and statistical analyses using a long-term reanalysis dataset. We refer to this new process as "Siberian Atmospheric Rivers (SARs)". Poleward upglides of SARs over cold air domes overlying sea ice provide the upper atmosphere with extra heat via condensation of water vapour. This heating drives increased buoyancy and further strengthens the ascent and heating of the mid-troposphere. This process requires the combination of SARs and sea ice as a land-ocean-atmosphere system, the implication being that large-scale heat and moisture transport from the lower latitudes can remotely amplify the warming of the Arctic troposphere in the summer.

Enhanced wintertime greenhouse effect reinforcing Arctic amplification and initial sea-ice melting

The speeds of both Arctic surface warming and sea-ice shrinking have accelerated over recent decades. However, the causes of this unprecedented phenomenon remain unclear and are subjects of considerable debate. In this study, we report strong observational evidence, for the first time from long-term (1984-2014) spatially complete satellite records, that increased cloudiness and atmospheric water vapor in winter and spring have caused an extraordinary downward longwave radiative flux to the ice surface, which may then amplify the Arctic wintertime ice-surface warming. In addition, we also provide observed evidence that it is quite likely the enhancement of the wintertime greenhouse effect caused by water vapor and cloudiness has advanced the time of onset of ice melting in mid-May through inhibiting sea-ice refreezing in the winter and accelerating the pre-melting process in the spring, and in turn triggered the positive sea-ice albedo feedback process and accelerated the sea ice melting in the summer.

Thermal source Fourier transform infrared microtomography applied to Arctic sea ice diatoms

We have used thermal source Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) microtomographic imaging to compare sea ice diatoms growing under different light conditions. A prototype tomography accessory was designed to have sufficient degrees of freedom to align any tilted cylindrical sample relative to the axis of rotation, minimizing the off-axis path traced during rotation. The lightweight device rests on the motorized stage to position the sample in the field-of-view and enable mosaic imaging. Reconstruction routines were tested with simulated and real phantoms, to assess limitations in the Radon back-projection method employed. The distribution and abundance of biochemicals is analysed for targets larger than a single FPA tile. Two and three dimensional (2D and 3D) FTIR spectrochemical images were obtained with a Focal Plane Array (FPA, nominal 1.1 μm pixel edges) for phantoms (polystyrene beads in polyvinyl alcohol matrix) and diatom cells harvested from land fast, first-year ice sites in Resolute Passage (74 43.628'N; 95 33.330'W) and Dease Strait (69° 1.11'N; 105° 21.29'W), Nunavut, Canada. The analysis of relative concentrations of organic matter within the encapsulating silica frustules of diatoms is important for a better understanding of both the physiological state and the individual cellular response to environmental pressures. Analysis of 3D FTIR images of Nitzschia frigida collected from beneath high (17-19 cm) and low (3-7 cm) snow depth revealed higher concentrations of lipids in diatoms collected under low snow cover, uniquely based on spectroscopically determined total 3D cell volume and biochemical content.

Spatiotemporal variability in surface energy balance across tundra, snow and ice in Greenland

The surface energy balance (SEB) is essential for understanding the coupled cryosphere-atmosphere system in the Arctic. In this study, we investigate the spatiotemporal variability in SEB across tundra, snow and ice. During the snow-free period, the main energy sink for ice sites is surface melt. For tundra, energy is used for sensible and latent heat flux and soil heat flux leading to permafrost thaw. Longer snow-free period increases melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and glaciers and may promote tundra permafrost thaw. During winter, clouds have a warming effect across surface types whereas during summer clouds have a cooling effect over tundra and a warming effect over ice, reflecting the spatial variation in albedo. The complex interactions between factors affecting SEB across surface types remain a challenge for understanding current and future conditions. Extended monitoring activities coupled with modelling efforts are essential for assessing the impact of warming in the Arctic.

Problems encountered when defining Arctic amplification as a ratio

In climate change science the term ‘Arctic amplification’ has become synonymous with an estimation of the ratio of a change in Arctic temperatures compared with a broader reference change under the same period, usually in global temperatures. Here, it is shown that this definition of Arctic amplification comes with a suite of difficulties related to the statistical properties of the ratio estimator itself. Most problematic is the complexity of categorizing uncertainty in Arctic amplification when the global, or reference, change in temperature is close to 0 over a period of interest, in which case it may be impossible to set bounds on this uncertainty. An important conceptual distinction is made between the ‘Ratio of Means’ and ‘Mean Ratio’ approaches to defining a ratio estimate of Arctic amplification, as they do not only possess different uncertainty properties regarding the amplification factor, but are also demonstrated to ask different scientific questions. Uncertainty in the estimated range of the Arctic amplification factor using the latest global climate models and climate forcing scenarios is expanded upon and shown to be greater than previously demonstrated for future climate projections, particularly using forcing scenarios with lower concentrations of greenhouse gases.

Shifting El Niño inhibits summer Arctic warming and Arctic sea-ice melting over the Canada Basin

Arctic climate changes include not only changes in trends and mean states but also strong interannual variations in various fields. Although it is known that tropical-extratropical teleconnection is sensitive to changes in flavours of El Niño, whether Arctic climate variability is linked to El Niño, in particular on interannual timescale, remains unclear. Here we demonstrate for the first time a long-range linkage between central Pacific (CP) El Niño and summer Arctic climate. Observations show that the CP warming related to CP El Niño events deepens the tropospheric Arctic polar vortex and strengthens the circumpolar westerly wind, thereby contributing to inhibiting summer Arctic warming and sea-ice melting. Atmospheric model experiments can generally capture the observed responses of Arctic circulation and robust surface cooling to CP El Niño forcing. We suggest that identification of the equator-Arctic teleconnection, via the 'atmospheric bridge', can potentially contribute to improving the skill of predicting Arctic climate.

Differences in the efficacy of climate forcings explained by variations in atmospheric boundary layer depth

The Earth has warmed in the last century and a large component of that warming has been attributed to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are also numerous processes that introduce strong, regionalized variations to the overall warming trend. However, the ability of a forcing to change the surface air temperature depends on its spatial and temporal distribution. Here we show that the efficacy of a forcing is determined by the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere, which in cold and dry climates is defined by the depth of the planetary boundary layer. This can vary by an order of magnitude on different temporal and spatial scales, and so we get a strongly amplified temperature response in shallow boundary layers. This must be accounted for to assess the efficacy of a climate forcing, and also implies that multiple climate forcings cannot be linearly combined to determine the temperature response.

Microbial diversity and functional capacity in polar soils

Global change is disproportionately affecting cold environments (polar and high elevation regions), with potentially negative impacts on microbial diversity and functional processes. In most cold environments the combination of low temperatures, and physical stressors, such as katabatic wind episodes and limited water availability result in biotic systems, which are in trophic terms very simple and primarily driven by microbial communities. Metagenomic approaches have provided key insights on microbial communities in these systems and how they may adapt to stressors and contribute towards mediating crucial biogeochemical cycles. Here we review, the current knowledge regarding edaphic-based microbial diversity and functional processes in Antarctica, and the Artic. Such insights are crucial and help to establish a baseline for understanding the impact of climate change on Polar Regions.

Evidence of high-elevation amplification versus Arctic amplification

Elevation-dependent warming in high-elevation regions and Arctic amplification are of tremendous interest to many scientists who are engaged in studies in climate change. Here, using annual mean temperatures from 2781 global stations for the 1961-2010 period, we find that the warming for the world's high-elevation stations (>500 m above sea level) is clearly stronger than their low-elevation counterparts; and the high-elevation amplification consists of not only an altitudinal amplification but also a latitudinal amplification. The warming for the high-elevation stations is linearly proportional to the temperature lapse rates along altitudinal and latitudinal gradients, as a result of the functional shape of Stefan-Boltzmann law in both vertical and latitudinal directions. In contrast, neither altitudinal amplification nor latitudinal amplification is found within the Arctic region despite its greater warming than lower latitudes. Further analysis shows that the Arctic amplification is an integrated part of the latitudinal amplification trend for the low-elevation stations (≤500 m above sea level) across the entire low- to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere, also a result of the mathematical shape of Stefan-Boltzmann law but only in latitudinal direction.

Microbial community dynamics in the forefield of glaciers

Retreating ice fronts (as a result of a warming climate) expose large expanses of deglaciated forefield, which become colonized by microbes and plants. There has been increasing interest in characterizing the biogeochemical development of these ecosystems using a chronosequence approach. Prior to the establishment of plants, microbes use autochthonously produced and allochthonously delivered nutrients for growth. The microbial community composition is largely made up of heterotrophic microbes (both bacteria and fungi), autotrophic microbes and nitrogen-fixing diazotrophs. Microbial activity is thought to be responsible for the initial build-up of labile nutrient pools, facilitating the growth of higher order plant life in developed soils. However, it is unclear to what extent these ecosystems rely on external sources of nutrients such as ancient carbon pools and periodic nitrogen deposition. Furthermore, the seasonal variation of chronosequence dynamics and the effect of winter are largely unexplored. Modelling this ecosystem will provide a quantitative evaluation of the key processes and could guide the focus of future research. Year-round datasets combined with novel metagenomic techniques will help answer some of the pressing questions in this relatively new but rapidly expanding field, which is of growing interest in the context of future large-scale ice retreat.

The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around 'climate response functions' (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to 'step' changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.