Scientific discourse in the era of open science: a response to Hall et al. regarding the Carbohydrate-Insulin Model

Childhood Obesity, Diabetes. and Cardiovascular Disease Risk

This mini-review aims to briefly summarize the pathophysiology of childhood obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in children and adolescents. Recent data on efficacy of lifestyle interventions, medications, and metabolic surgery for obesity, T2DM, and CVD risk factors are also reviewed. We conducted a PubMed search of English-language original and review articles relevant to childhood obesity, T2DM, and CVD risk factors, and biomarkers in children with an emphasis on recent publications. Childhood obesity arises from an intricate interaction between genetic, physiologic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors. The rise in the prevalence of childhood obesity is associated with the development of comorbidities including T2DM and CVD at an early age. A multipronged approach is central to the detection, monitoring, and management of childhood obesity and associated adverse metabolic consequences.

Implication of lipid turnover for the control of energy balance

The ongoing obesity epidemic is a consequence of a progressive energy imbalance. The energy-balance model (EBM) posits that obesity results from an excess in food intake and circulating fuels. A reversal in causality has been proposed recently in the form of the carbohydrate-insulin model (CIM), according to which fat storage drives energy imbalance. Under the CIM, dietary carbohydrates shift energy use in favour of storage in adipose tissue. The dynamics of lipid storage and mobilization could, therefore, be sensitive to changes in carbohydrate intake and represent a measurable component of the CIM. To characterize potential changes in lipid dynamics induced by carbohydrates, mathematical models were used. Here, we propose a coherent mathematical implementation of the CIM-energy deposition model (CIM-EDM), which includes lipid turnover dynamics. Using lipid turnover data previously obtained by radiocarbon dating, we build two cohorts of virtual patients and simulate lipid dynamics during ageing and weight loss. We identify clinically testable lipid dynamic parameters that discriminate between the CIM-EDM and an energy in, energy out implementation of the EBM (EBM-IOM). Using a clinically relevant two-month virtual trial, we additionally identify scenarios and propose mechanisms whereby individuals may respond differently to low-carbohydrate diets. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Causes of obesity: theories, conjectures and evidence (Part II)'.

Carbohydrate-insulin model: does the conventional view of obesity reverse cause and effect?

Conventional obesity treatment, based on the First Law of Thermodynamics, assumes that excess body fat gain is driven by overeating, and that all calories are metabolically alike in this regard. Hence, to lose weight one must ultimately eat less and move more. However, this prescription rarely succeeds over the long term, in part because calorie restriction elicits predictable biological responses that oppose ongoing weight loss. The carbohydrate-insulin model posits the opposite causal direction: overeating doesn't drive body fat increase; instead, the process of storing excess fat drives overeating. A diet high in rapidly digestible carbohydrates raises the insulin-to-glucagon ratio, shifting energy partitioning towards storage in adipose, leaving fewer calories for metabolically active and fuel sensing tissues. Consequently, hunger increases, and metabolic rate slows in the body's attempt to conserve energy. A small shift in substrate partitioning though this mechanism could account for the slow but progressive weight gain characteristic of common forms of obesity. From this perspective, the conventional calorie-restricted, low-fat diet amounts to symptomatic treatment, failing to target the underlying predisposition towards excess fat deposition. A dietary strategy to lower insulin secretion may increase the effectiveness of long-term weight management and chronic disease prevention. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Causes of obesity: theories, conjectures and evidence (Part II)'.

Keto is Trending: Implications for Body Weight and Lipid Management

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Very-low-carbohydrate (VLC) and ketogenic diets (KDs) have been used for weight loss and more recently in patients with insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes. The impact of VLC and KDs on lipids/lipoproteins is a concern. The purpose of this review is to discuss the impact of KDs on body weight and lipids/lipoproteins.

RECENT FINDINGS

VLC/KDs contribute to greater weight loss in the short term (< 6 months) compared to higher carbohydrate diets, but there is typically no difference between the diets by 12 months. Triglyceride and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels generally improve, but there is a variable response in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, with some individuals experiencing a dramatic increase, particularly those with latent genetic dyslipidemias. Healthcare professionals should educate patients on the risks and benefits of following VLC/KDs and encourage the consumption of carbohydrate-rich foods associated with positive health outcomes.

The carbohydrate-insulin model: a physiological perspective on the obesity pandemic

According to a commonly held view, the obesity pandemic is caused by overconsumption of modern, highly palatable, energy-dense processed foods, exacerbated by a sedentary lifestyle. However, obesity rates remain at historic highs, despite a persistent focus on eating less and moving more, as guided by the energy balance model (EBM). This public health failure may arise from a fundamental limitation of the EBM itself. Conceptualizing obesity as a disorder of energy balance restates a principle of physics without considering the biological mechanisms that promote weight gain. An alternative paradigm, the carbohydrate-insulin model (CIM), proposes a reversal of causal direction. According to the CIM, increasing fat deposition in the body-resulting from the hormonal responses to a high-glycemic-load diet-drives positive energy balance. The CIM provides a conceptual framework with testable hypotheses for how various modifiable factors influence energy balance and fat storage. Rigorous research is needed to compare the validity of these 2 models, which have substantially different implications for obesity management, and to generate new models that best encompass the evidence.

Benefits of Low Carbohydrate Diets: a Settled Question or Still Controversial?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The purpose of this review was to provide an update on the available data on the benefits of low-carbohydrate (low-carb) diets for weight management and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and determine if low-carb diets were a settled question or still controversial.

RECENT FINDINGS

Most of the recent published literature in this area consists of reviews of past trials, with a relatively smaller number of recent trials. Low-carb is most commonly compared to low-fat, with problematically inconsistent definitions of both. There are numerous challenges in trying to draw clear conclusions about efficacy and effectiveness. Short-term vs. long-term effects can differ, which is likely impacted by adherence. Adherence is very different between metabolic chamber or feeding studies vs. free-living. Body weight alone is a crude measure that fails to capture potentially important differences in lean-mass, fat-mass, and body water. Benefits for glycemic control need to be balanced with impacts on non-glycemic outcomes such as LDL-cholesterol, the microbiome, and inflammation. It is important to differentiate between low-carb and very-low carbohydrate diets (VLCD). To date no large-scale long-term clinical trials have been conducted testing whether low-carb diets can prevent T2DM. Many issues regarding benefits and risks of low-carb diets remain controversial or unresolved, particularly for VLCD. Some of the recent, better studies highlighted in this review suggest strategies for resolving these controversies.

Falsehoods and facts about dietary sugars: a call for evidence-based policy

Sugar, tobacco, and alcohol have been demonized since the seventeenth century. Yet unlike tobacco and alcohol, there is indisputable scientific evidence that dietary sugars were essential for human evolution and are essential for human health and development. Therefore, the purpose of this analytic review and commentary is to demonstrate that anti-sugar rhetoric is divorced from established scientific facts and has led to politically expedient but ill-informed policies reminiscent of those enacted about alcohol a century ago in the United States. Herein, we present a large body of interdisciplinary research to illuminate several misconceptions, falsehoods, and facts about dietary sugars. We argue that anti-sugar policies and recommendations are not merely unscientific but are regressive and unjust because they harm the most vulnerable members of our society while providing no personal or public health benefits.

Energy Requirement Is Higher During Weight-Loss Maintenance in Adults Consuming a Low- Compared with High-Carbohydrate Diet

BACKGROUND

Longer-term feeding studies suggest that a low-carbohydrate diet increases energy expenditure, consistent with the carbohydrate-insulin model of obesity. However, the validity of methodology utilized in these studies, involving doubly labeled water (DLW), has been questioned.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine whether dietary energy requirement for weight-loss maintenance is higher on a low- compared with high-carbohydrate diet.

METHODS

The study reports secondary outcomes from a feeding study in which the primary outcome was total energy expenditure (TEE). After attaining a mean Run-in weight loss of 10.5%, 164 adults (BMI ≥25 kg/m2; 70.1% women) were randomly assigned to Low-Carbohydrate (percentage of total energy from carbohydrate, fat, protein: 20/60/20), Moderate-Carbohydrate (40/40/20), or High-Carbohydrate (60/20/20) Test diets for 20 wk. Calorie content was adjusted to maintain individual body weight within ± 2 kg of the postweight-loss value. In analyses by intention-to-treat (ITT, completers, n = 148) and per protocol (PP, completers also achieving weight-loss maintenance, n = 110), we compared the estimated energy requirement (EER) from 10 to 20 wk of the Test diets using ANCOVA.

RESULTS

Mean EER was higher in the Low- versus High-Carbohydrate group in models of varying covariate structure involving ITT [ranging from 181 (95% CI: 8-353) to 246 (64-427) kcal/d; P ≤0.04] and PP [ranging from 245 (43-446) to 323 (122-525) kcal/d; P ≤0.02]. This difference remained significant in sensitivity analyses accounting for change in adiposity and possible nonadherence.

CONCLUSIONS

Energy requirement was higher on a low- versus high-carbohydrate diet during weight-loss maintenance in adults, commensurate with TEE. These data are consistent with the carbohydrate-insulin model and lend qualified support for the validity of the DLW method with diets varying in macronutrient composition. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02068885.

The Ketogenic Diet: Evidence for Optimism but High-Quality Research Needed

For >50 y, dietary guidelines in the United States have focused on reducing intakes of saturated and total fat. However, rates of obesity and diabetes rose markedly throughout this period, with potentially catastrophic implications for public health and the economy. Recently, ketogenic diets have received substantial attention from the general public and nutrition research community. These very-low-carbohydrate diets, with fat comprising >70% of calories, have been dismissed as fads. However, they have a long history in clinical medicine and human evolution. Ketogenic diets appear to be more effective than low-fat diets for treatment of obesity and diabetes. In addition to the reductions in blood glucose and insulin achievable through carbohydrate restriction, chronic ketosis might confer unique metabolic benefits of relevance to cancer, neurodegenerative conditions, and other diseases associated with insulin resistance. Based on available evidence, a well-formulated ketogenic diet does not appear to have major safety concerns for the general public and can be considered a first-line approach for obesity and diabetes. High-quality clinical trials of ketogenic diets will be needed to assess important questions about their long-term effects and full potential in clinical medicine.

Effects of Dietary Carbohydrate Content on Circulating Metabolic Fuel Availability in the Postprandial State

Context

According to the carbohydrate-insulin model of obesity, an elevated insulin-to-glucagon ratio in response to a high-carbohydrate diet directs metabolic fuels toward storage, resulting in lower circulating energy.

Objective

To determine differences in total circulating energy post-meal related to dietary carbohydrate.

Design

Ancillary study within the Framingham State Food Study.

Setting

University community.

Participants

29 adults (aged 20 to 65 years) with overweight or obesity (body mass index ≥25 kg/m²)

Intervention

After achieving 10% to 14% weight loss on a run-in diet, participants were randomized to weight-loss-maintenance test diets varying in carbohydrate content (high-carbohydrate, 60% of total energy, n = 11; moderate-carbohydrate, 40%, n = 8; low-carbohydrate, 20%, n = 10) and controlled for protein (20%). During 24-hour metabolic ward admissions between 10 and 15 weeks on the test diets, metabolic fuels and hormones were measured.

Main Outcome Measure

Energy availability (EA) based on energy content of blood glucose, beta-hydroxybutyrate, and free fatty acids, in the late postprandial period (180 to 300 minutes). Insulin at 30 minutes into the test meal (Meal Insulin-30) was measured as an effect modifier.

Results

Insulin-to-glucagon ratio was 7-fold higher in participants on the high- vs low-carbohydrate diet (2.5 and 0.36, respectively). Late postprandial EA was 0.58 kcal/L lower on the high- vs low-carbohydrate diet (P < 0.0001), primarily related to suppression of free fatty acids. Early postprandial EA (30 to 180 minutes) declined fastest in the high-carbohydrate group, and Meal Insulin-30 modified this diet effect.

Conclusions

During weight-loss maintenance on a high-carbohydrate diet, late postprandial EA is reduced, consistent with the carbohydrate-insulin model.

Testing the carbohydrate-insulin model of obesity in a 5-month feeding study: the perils of post-hoc participant exclusions

A large feeding study reported that total energy expenditure (TEE) was greater on a low- versus high-carbohydrate diet, supporting the carbohydrate-insulin model of obesity. Recently, the validity of this finding was challenged in a post-hoc analysis excluding participants with putative non-adherence to the study diets. Here, we show why that analysis, based on a post-randomization variable linked to the outcome, introduced severe confounding bias. With control for confounding, the diet effect on TEE remained strong in a reanalysis. Together with sensitivity analyses demonstrating robustness to plausible levels of non-adherence, these data provide experimental support for a potentially novel metabolic effect of macronutrients that might inform the design of more effective obesity treatment.