How long do floods throughout the millennium remain in the collective memory?

The interplay between the urban development of Rome (Italy) and the Tiber River floods: A review of two millennia of socio-hydrological history

The urban development of Rome (Italy) has been intertwined with the dynamics of the Tiber River since its foundation. In this review paper, we analyse more than 2500 years of flood history and urban development to untangle the dynamics of flood risk and assess the resulting socio-hydrological phenomena. Until the 1800s, urban dwellers living in the riparian areas of the Tiber River were accustomed to frequent flooding. From the 1900s, the construction of flood walls reshaped the co-evolution of hydrological, economic, political, technological, and social processes. As a result, while the probability of flooding is currently very low, its potential adverse consequences would be catastrophic. From the analysis of the long-term feedback between urban development of Rome and flood events from ancient times to present days, it emerges the crucial need for an effective flood risk mitigation strategy that combines structural and non-structural measures. In particular, heightened flood risk awareness and preparedness to cope with rare but potentially devastating events is key to alleviate flood risk.

Collective memory: between individual systems of consciousness and social systems

Following a long period of neglect, research on different facets of collective memory is now developing apace in the human and social sciences, as well as at their interface with psychology and neuroscience. This resolutely multidisciplinary renewal of interest in memory sciences has given rise to a plethora of concepts with diverse meanings (e.g., social frameworks of memory, collective, shared, collaborative, social memory). The purpose of the present study was to provide a conceptual overview from a historical perspective, and above all to clarify concepts that are often used interchangeably, even though they refer to very different realities. Based on recent research in psychology and neuroscience, we use the concept of collective memory to refer to the operations of individual systems of consciousness. Collective memory is not the memory of a collective, but that of its individual members, either as members of social groups (shared memory) or as participants in social interactions (collaborative memory). Drawing on the contributions of contemporary sociology, we show that social memory is not collective memory, as it refers not to individual systems of consciousness, but to social systems. More specifically, it is the outcome of communication operations which, through redundancy and repetition, perform a continuous and selective re-imprinting of meaning that can be used for communication. Writing, printing and the new communication technologies constitute the three historical stages in the formation and development of an autonomous social memory, independent of living memories and social interactions. In the modern era, mass media fulfill an essential function of social memory, by sorting between forgetting and remembering on a planetary scale. When thinking about the articulation between collective memory and social memory, the concept of structural coupling allows us to identify two mechanisms by which individual systems of consciousness and social systems can interact and be mutually sensitized: schemas and scripts, and social roles. Transdisciplinary approach spearheads major methodological and conceptual advances and is particularly promising for clinical practice, as it should result in a better understanding of memory pathologies, including PTSD, but also cognitive disorders in cancer (chemobrain) or in neurodegenerative diseases.

Shifts in flood generation processes exacerbate regional flood anomalies in Europe

Anomalies in the frequency of river floods, i.e., flood-rich or -poor periods, cause biases in flood risk estimates and thus make climate adaptation measures less efficient. While observations have recently confirmed the presence of flood anomalies in Europe, their exact causes are not clear. Here we analyse streamflow and climate observations during 1960-2010 to show that shifts in flood generation processes contribute more to the occurrence of regional flood anomalies than changes in extreme rainfall. A shift from rain on dry soil to rain on wet soil events by 5% increased the frequency of flood-rich periods in the Atlantic region, and an opposite shift in the Mediterranean region increased the frequency of flood-poor periods, but will likely make singular extreme floods occur more often. Flood anomalies driven by changing flood generation processes in Europe may further intensify in a warming climate and should be considered in flood estimation and management.

Leveraging collective action and environmental literacy to address complex sustainability challenges

Developing and enhancing societal capacity to understand, debate elements of, and take actionable steps toward a sustainable future at a scale beyond the individual are critical when addressing sustainability challenges such as climate change, resource scarcity, biodiversity loss, and zoonotic disease. Although mounting evidence exists for how to facilitate individual action to address sustainability challenges, there is less understanding of how to foster collective action in this realm. To support research and practice promoting collective action to address sustainability issues, we define the term "collective environmental literacy" by delineating four key potent aspects: scale, dynamic processes, shared resources, and synergy. Building on existing collective constructs and thought, we highlight areas where researchers, practitioners, and policymakers can support individuals and communities as they come together to identify, develop, and implement solutions to wicked problems. We close by discussing limitations of this work and future directions in studying collective environmental literacy.

Collective memory and autobiographical memory: Perspectives from the humanities and cognitive sciences

The current overview provides an interdisciplinary synthesis of autobiographical and collective memory studies, focusing on history and cognitive psychology, to help other scholars bridge the disciplinary gap. We describe the various interpretative frameworks used to build theoretical knowledge on how autobiographical memory and collective memory are intertwined. We expose how research exploring self, social and directive functions of autobiographical memory echoes three main functions that can be identified for collective memory, that is, social identity, social schemata, and means for actions, or a political decision tool of research in these fields. In doing so, we hope to stimulate opportunities for more interdisciplinary research. This article is categorized under: Psychology > Memory Psychology > Theory and Methods.

Synchronized agricultural credit and diversification adoption to catastrophic risk manage for wheat production in Punjab, Pakistan

In developing countries, particularly in agrarian economies like Pakistan, agricultural production is severely affected by successive incidences of adverse catastrophic risks. Inadequate and limited risk management measures from farming community to overcome such severe financial, production, and marketing risks not enough so need of adoption farm-based feasible risk management strategies. In addressing this research gap, this study investigated the potential association and implementing synchronized agricultural credit and diversification adoption to catastrophic risk manage for wheat production in Punjab, Pakistan. The study used the data of 480 wheat farmers' respondents and employed multinomial and bivariate probit regression models for empirical analysis. Empirical estimates illustrated the significant association in adoption of multiple risk management strategies as addressing the adoption single risk management strategy motivates farmers to adopt another strategy at same time. Furthermore, results also indicated as farmer schooling, age, family return, ownership of land, farm size, and farmer risk oppose character were highlighted the most influenced features for adopting various risk management strategies. Policy makers and state-based authorities can be assisted by these outcomes to evaluating plans of risk management and willingness of farmer in accept government supported regarding implementation of these catastrophic risk managing strategies.

Analysis of Socio-Economic Factors That Influence Loss of Life in Sediment-Related Disasters

Non-structural measures, including relocation from a hazard zone, land development regulations, and evacuation, are important sediment-related countermeasures. Such measures depend on the behaviour of residents and are affected by socio-economic conditions. In Japan, the declining birth rate and ageing population are expected to result in rapid changes in socio-economic conditions; accordingly, there is a need to evaluate the impact of such changes. However, there is no established methodology for the establishment of non-structural measures that considers the socio-economic conditions of all areas. Therefore, this study analysed the regional characteristics of disaster-affected areas with high numbers of casualties to elucidate the impact of socio-economic conditions. The results imply that severe losses occurred under various topographical and socio-economic conditions, such as in urban areas with high population densities and in mountainous areas with increasing depopulation. More data are needed, especially regarding socio-economic conditions. Importantly, the community-based analytical method used in this study enables a comparative analysis of disasters in different regions at different times.

A Description-Experience Framework of the Psychology of Risk

The modern world holds countless risks for humanity, both large-scale and intimately personal-from cyberwarfare, pandemics, and climate change to sexually transmitted diseases and drug use and abuse. Many risks have prompted institutional, regulatory, and technological countermeasures, the success of which depends to some extent on how individuals learn about the risks in question. We distinguish between two powerful but imperfect teachers of risk. First, people may learn by consulting symbolic and descriptive material, such as warnings, statistics, and images. More often than not, however, a risk's fluidity defies precise description. Second, people may learn about risks through personal experience. Responses to risk can differ systematically depending on whether people learn through one mode, both, or neither. One reason for these differences-and by no means the only reason-is the discrepancy in the cognitive impact that rare events (typically the risk event) and common events (typically the nonoccurrence of the risk event) have on the decision maker. We propose a description-experience framework that highlights not only the impact of each mode of learning but also the effects of their interplay on individuals' and collectives' responses to risk. We outline numerous research questions and themes suggested by this framework.

Societal extinction of species

The ongoing global biodiversity crisis not only involves biological extinctions, but also the loss of experience and the gradual fading of cultural knowledge and collective memory of species. We refer to this phenomenon as 'societal extinction of species' and apply it to both extinct and extant taxa. We describe the underlying concepts as well as the mechanisms and factors that affect this process, discuss its main implications, and identify mitigation measures. Societal extinction is cognitively intractable, but it is tied to biological extinction and thus has important consequences for conservation policy and management. It affects societal perceptions of the severity of anthropogenic impacts and of true extinction rates, erodes societal support for conservation efforts, and causes the loss of cultural heritage.

Persistent Pandemics

We ask whether mortality from historical pandemics has any predictive content for mortality in the Covid-19 pandemic. We find strong persistence in public health performance. Places that performed worse in terms of mortality in the 1918 influenza pandemic also have higher Covid-19 mortality today. This is true across countries as well as across a sample of large US cities. Experience with SARS in 2003 is associated with slightly lower mortality today. We discuss some socio-political factors that may account for persistence including distrust of expert advice, lack of cooperation, over-confidence, and health care supply shortages. Multi-generational effects of past pandemics may also matter.

Change of extreme snow events shaped the roof of traditional Chinese architecture in the past millennium

As a symbol of civilization and culture, architecture was originally developed for sheltering people from unpleasant weather or other environmental conditions. Therefore, architecture is expected to be sensitive to climate change, particularly to changes in the occurrence of extreme weather events. However, although meteorological factors are widely considered in modern architecture design, it remains unclear whether and how ancient people adapted to climate change from the perspective of architecture design, particularly on a millennium time scale. Here, we show periodic change and a positive trend in roof slope of traditional buildings in the northern part of central and eastern China and demonstrate climate change adaptation in traditional Chinese architecture, driven by fluctuations in extreme snowfall events over the past thousand years. This study provides an excellent example showing how humans have long been aware of the impact of climate change on daily life and learned to adapt to it.

Flood risk behaviors of United States riverine metropolitan areas are driven by local hydrology and shaped by race

Flooding risk results from complex interactions between hydrological hazards (e.g., riverine inundation during periods of heavy rainfall), exposure, vulnerability (e.g., the potential for structural damage or loss of life), and resilience (how well we recover, learn from, and adapt to past floods). Building on recent coupled conceptualizations of these complex interactions, we characterize human-flood interactions (collective memory and risk-enduring attitude) at a more comprehensive scale than has been attempted to date across 50 US metropolitan statistical areas with a sociohydrologic (SH) model calibrated with accessible local data (historical records of annual peak streamflow, flood insurance loss claims, active insurance policy records, and population density). A cluster analysis on calibrated SH model parameter sets for metropolitan areas identified two dominant behaviors: 1) "risk-enduring" cities with lower flooding defenses and longer memory of past flood loss events and 2) "risk-averse" cities with higher flooding defenses and reduced memory of past flooding. These divergent behaviors correlated with differences in local stream flashiness indices (i.e., the frequency and rapidity of daily changes in streamflow), maximum dam heights, and the proportion of White to non-White residents in US metropolitan areas. Risk-averse cities tended to exist within regions characterized by flashier streamflow conditions, larger dams, and larger proportions of White residents. Our research supports the development of SH models in urban metropolitan areas and the design of risk management strategies that consider both demographically heterogeneous populations, changing flood defenses, and temporal changes in community risk perceptions and tolerance.

Exposure to natural hazard events unassociated with policy change for improved disaster risk reduction

Natural hazard events provide opportunities for policy change to enhance disaster risk reduction (DRR), yet it remains unclear whether these events actually fulfill this transformative role around the world. Here, we investigate relationships between the frequency (number of events) and severity (fatalities, economic losses, and affected people) of natural hazards and DRR policy change in 85 countries over eight years. Our results show that frequency and severity factors are generally unassociated with improved DRR policy when controlling for income-levels, differences in starting policy values, and hazard event types. This is a robust result that accounts for event frequency and different hazard severity indicators, four baseline periods estimating hazard impacts, and multiple policy indicators. Although we show that natural hazards are unassociated with improved DRR policy globally, the study unveils variability in policy progress between countries experiencing similar levels of hazard frequency and severity.

Whether disasters spur policy change remains contested. Here, the authors utilize a dataset of 10,976 natural hazard events and multiple disaster risk reduction (DRR) policy indicators across 85 countries over eight years to show that frequency and severity factors are unassociated with improved DRR policy.

In Search of the Cultural Engram

Human cultures store memories in large distributed assemblies composed of individual brains, intragenerational and intergenerational interacting brains, social constructs, and artifacts. Neuroscience, social sciences, and the humanities can benefit mutually from combining their distinctive methodologies in investigating the cultural engram.

Tornado Risk Climatology in Europe

Violent tornadoes are rare in Europe but they can have devastating effects. Damage associated with individual tornadoes can reach several billion euros and they have caused hundreds of fatalities. The tornado risk varies considerably over Europe, but so far only a few national maps of tornado risk and one Europe-wide map exist. We show several different ways to create quantitative maps of tornado occurrence rates as follows: Kernel smoothing of observations, climatologies of convective parameters from reanalysis, output of a logistic regression model to link convective parameters with observed tornadoes, orography-dependent climatologies and finally the population-bias corrected tornado occurrence rates from the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Europe Severe Convective Storm Model. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of each approach and compare the results. While the climatologies created from the individual methods show a lot of qualitative similarities, we advocate to combine the methods to achieve the most reliable quantitative climatology.