The impact of stopping and starting indoor residual spraying on malaria burden in Uganda

The epidemiology of malaria in four districts in southern Mozambique receiving indoor residual spray as part of a cross-border initiative

BACKGROUND

Imported malaria from southern Mozambique drives low levels of disease transmission in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Therefore, the South African Department of Health funded implementation of indoor residual spraying (IRS) in Mozambiquan districts identified as sources of malaria infection for border communities in KwaZulu-Natal. IRS was initiated in districts of Guija, Inharrime, Panda and Zavala. To determine impact of spraying on malaria transmission in these districts, data relating to incidence and prevalence was collected before spraying (2018) and before the second round of spraying was completed (2023). Implementation of IRS was also monitored to ensure optimal spray coverage was achieved.

METHODS

The study was a cross-sectional survey conducted in 6 sentinel sites in each of the four afore-mentioned districts, focusing on children 6 months to < 15 years from selected households. There was a baseline and an endline cross-sectional survey. Baseline prevalence took place during March-April 2022 whereas the endline surveys occurred during February-March 2023. One hundred and twenty children from each sentinel site were tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic tests. Monthly malaria cases were obtained from health facilities in each study district. Spray data was obtained from LSDI2 initiative who implemented IRS in the targeted districts.

RESULTS

The study showed a definite impact of IRS on malaria prevalence in the targeted districts. Prevalence for sentinel sites in Guija district indicated that the prevalence of malaria increased slightly from baseline to endline in all sentinel sites in Guija. Overall, there was no significant change in prevalence in Zavala, from baseline to endline (p-value = 0.611). Panda's overall malaria prevalence decreased from 19.20% to 10.82% (p-value < 0.001) whereas overall prevalence in Inharrime, decreased from 27.68% to 19.50% (p-value < 0.001). Malaria prevalence in children younger than 5 years decreased significantly in all four districts. In Panda there was a decrease in numbers of males and females being infected between surveys (p < 0.001), whereas for Inharrime the decrease was significant in females (p < 0.001). High coverage with IRS (> 95%) resulted in greater population protection.

CONCLUSION

The study revealed that IRS implementation decreased malaria prevalence in Inharrime and Panda but not in Guija and Zavala. To ensure that cross-border movement of people does not result in increased malaria transmission, targeting areas identified as source of infection in travelers is paramount to reaching elimination.

Climate Change and Malaria: A Call for Robust Analytics

Mosquito ecology and behavior and malaria parasite development display marked sensitivity to weather, in particular to temperature and precipitation. Therefore, climate change is expected to profoundly affect malaria epidemiology in its transmission, spatiotemporal distribution and consequent disease burden. However, malaria transmission is also complicated by other factors (e.g. urbanization, socioeconomic development, genetics, drug resistance) which together constitute a highly complex, dynamical system, where the influence of any single factor can be masked by others. In this study, we therefore aim to re-evaluate the evidence underlying the widespread belief that climate change will increase worldwide malaria transmission. We review two broad types of study that have contributed to this evidence-base: i) studies that project changes in transmission due to inferred relationships between environmental and mosquito entomology, and ii) regression-based studies that look for associations between environmental variables and malaria prevalence. We then employ a simple statistical model to show that environmental variables alone do not account for the observed spatiotemporal variation in malaria prevalence. Our review raises several concerns about the robustness of the analyses used for advocacy around climate change and malaria. We find that, while climate change's effect on malaria is highly plausible, empirical evidence is much less certain. Future research on climate change and malaria must become integrated into malaria control programs, and understood in context as one factor among many. Our work outlines gaps in modelling that we believe are priorities for future research.

Process and Methodological Considerations for Observational Analyses of Vector Control Interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa Using Routine Malaria Data

Progress in malaria control has stalled in recent years. With growing resistance to existing malaria vector control insecticides and the introduction of new vector control products, national malaria control programs (NMCPs) increasingly need to make data-driven, subnational decisions to inform vector control deployment. As NMCPs are increasingly conducting subnational stratification of malaria control interventions, including malaria vector control, country-specific frameworks and platforms are increasingly needed to guide data use for vector control deployment. Integration of routine health systems data, entomological data, and vector control program data in observational longitudinal analyses offers an opportunity for NMCPs and research institutions to conduct evaluations of existing and novel vector control interventions. Drawing on the experience of implementing 22 vector control evaluations across 14 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, as well as published and gray literature on vector control impact evaluations using routine health information system data, this article provides practical guidance on the design of these evaluations, makes recommendations for key variables and data sources, and proposes methods to address challenges in data quality. Key recommendations include appropriate parameterization of impact and coverage indicators, incorporating explanatory covariates and contextual factors from multiple sources (including rapid diagnostic testing stockouts; insecticide susceptibility; vector density measures; vector control coverage, use, and durability; climate and other malaria and non-malaria health programs), and assessing data quality before the evaluation through either on-the-ground or remote data quality assessments. These recommendations may increase the frequency, rigor, and utilization of routine data sources to inform national program decision-making for vector control.

Impact of late rainy season indoor residual spraying on holoendemic malaria transmission: a cohort study in northern Zambia

BACKGROUND

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is a malaria control strategy implemented before the rainy season. Nchelenge District, Zambia is a holoendemic setting where IRS has been conducted since 2008 with little impact on malaria incidence or parasite prevalence. Pre-rainy season IRS may not reduce the post-rainy season peak abundance of the major vector, Anopheles funestus.

METHODS

A controlled, pre-post, prospective cohort study assessed the impact of late-rainy season IRS on malaria prevalence, incidence, hazard, and vector abundance. Three hundred eighty-two individuals were enrolled across four household clusters, of which two were sprayed in April 2022 toward the end of the rainy season. Monthly household and individual surveys and indoor overnight vector collections were conducted through August 2022. Multivariate regression and time-to-event analyses estimated the impact of IRS on outcomes measured by rapid diagnostic tests, microscopy, and quantitative polymerase chain reaction.

RESULTS

Seventy two percent of participants tested positive by rapid diagnostic test at least once and incidence by microscopy was 3.4 infections per person-year. Residing in a household in a sprayed area was associated with a 52% reduction in infection hazard (hazards ratio: 0.48, 95% confidence interval [0.29, 0.78]) but not with changes in incidence, prevalence, or vector abundance. The study-wide entomological inoculation rate was 34 infectious bites per person per year.

CONCLUSION

Monthly tracking of incidence and prevalence did not demonstrate meaningful changes in holoendemic transmission intensity. However, hazard of infection, which provides greater power for detecting changes in transmission, demonstrated that late rainy season IRS reduced malaria risk.

Cost of the national malaria control program and cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying and insecticide-treated bed net interventions in two districts of Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Madagascar has made significant progress in the fight against malaria. However, the number of malaria cases yearly increased since 2012. ITNs and IRS are key interventions for reducing malaria in Madagascar. Given the increasing number of cases and limited resources, understanding the cost-effectiveness of these strategies is essential for policy development and resource allocation.

METHODS

Using a societal perspective, this study aims to estimate the cost of the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP) through the first national malaria strategic plan (implemented over the period 2009-2013) and to assess the cost-effectiveness of two individually implemented malaria control interventions (ITNs and IRS) in two districts, Ankazobe and Brickaville. The cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) of ITN intervention was then compared to the CER of IRS intervention to identify the most cost-effective intervention. The cost of the NMCP and the costs incurred in the implementation of each intervention at the district level were initially estimated. On the basis of two results, the CERs of ITN or IRS correspond to the total cost of ITN or IRS divided by the number of people protected or the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. A deterministic univariate sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the robustness of the results with a discount rate of 2.5% (0-5%) (costs and DALYs) and a 95% CI (person protected).

RESULTS

From 2009 to 2013, the NMCP cost USD 45.4 million (USD 43.5-47.5, r = 0-5%) per year, equivalent to USD 2.0 per capita per year. IRS implementation costs were four times higher than those of ITNs. The CER of IRS per case protected (USD 295.1 [285.1-306.1], r = 0-5%) was higher than the CER of ITNs (USD 48.6 [USD 46.0-51.5, r = 0-5%] in Ankazobe and USD 26.5 [USD 24.8-28.4, r = 0-5%] in Brickaville). The CERs per DALY averted of IRS was USD 427.6 [USD 413.0-546.3, r = 0-5%] in Ankazobe and, for ITNs, it was USD 85.4 [USD 80.8-90.5, r = 0-5%] in Ankazobe and USD 45.3 [USD 42.2-48.4, r = 0-5%] in Brickaville. Compared to the country GDP per capita (USD PPP 1494.6 in 2013), ITN intervention was "highly cost-effective" while the CER for IRS interventions was sensitive to parameter variation (CI, 95% of persons protected), which ranges from highly cost-effective to only cost-effective (USD 291.5-2004, r = 2.5%).

CONCLUSION

In the Malagasy context, IRS intervention cost more and was less effective than ITN intervention. Willingness to pay for IRS is questioned. A relevant budget impact analysis should be conducted before a potential extension of this intervention.

Prevalence and factors associated with placental malaria in Lira District, Northern Uganda: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Malaria has a stable perennial transmission across Uganda. Placental malaria is associated with adverse maternal, fetal, and neonatal outcomes. The factors associated with placental malaria are poorly understood in the study setting. The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence of placental malaria and to determine its associated factors among parturient women in Lira District, Uganda.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study among 366 pregnant women who delivered at Lira Regional Referral Hospital. Data were collected from December 2018 to February 2019 using an interviewer-administered questionnaire. The variables were socio-demographic, obstetric characteristics, and malaria preventive practices. Standard Diagnostic Bioline Rapid Diagnostic Tests were used to detect placental malaria present in placental blood. Microscopy was used to quantify the grade of placental malaria parasitaemia. Logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with placental malaria.

RESULTS

The mean age of the participants was 25.34 years (standard deviation [SD] 5.73). The prevalence of placental malaria was [4.4% (16/366) 95% CI (2.5 to 7.0)]. Of these, only 7/16 were positive on microscopy, with 2/7 having moderate parasitemia and 5/7 having mild parasitaemia. Women aged less than 20 years [AOR 3.48, 95% CI (1.13 to 10.72)], and those not taking iron supplements during pregnancy [AOR = 3.55, 95% CI (1.02 to 12.31)] were associated with an increased likelihood of having placental malaria.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of placental malaria was low in this setting. This may have reflected the low malaria transmission rates following intensive indoor residual spraying. Placental malaria infection was associated with younger age and not taking iron supplements during pregnancy. Public health measures need to scale up and emphasise adherence to malaria preventive measures during pregnancy especially among teenage mothers.

Analysis of the 24-h biting patterns and human exposures to malaria vectors in south-eastern Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Afrotropical malaria vectors are generally believed to bite nocturnally, leading to the predominant use of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), which target indoor, nighttime-biting mosquitoes. This focus is reinforced by biases in entomological surveys, which largely overlook daytime mosquito activity. However, recent evidence challenges this paradigm, showing that Anopheles biting can extend way into the daytime, coinciding with human activities at dawn, daytime and evenings, suggesting a broader risk spectrum and potential protection gaps. We have therefore investigated the diurnal and nocturnal biting patterns of the malaria vectors Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus in south-eastern Tanzania, to better understand the scope of residual transmission and inform strategies for improved control.

METHODS

Host-seeking mosquitoes were collected hourly using miniaturized double net traps, both indoors and outdoors over 24-h periods between June 2023 and February 2024. Concurrently, human activities indoors and outdoors were monitored half-hourly to correlate with mosquito collections. A structured questionnaire was used to assess household members' knowledge, perceptions and experiences regarding exposure to mosquito bites during both nighttime and daytime.

RESULTS

Nocturnal biting by An. arabiensis peaked between 7 p.m. and 11 p.m. while that of An. funestus peaked later, between 1 a.m. and 3 a.m. Daytime biting accounted for 15.03% of An. arabiensis catches, with peaks around 7-11 a.m. and after 4 p.m., and for 14.15% of An. funestus catches, peaking around mid-mornings, from 10 a.m. to 12 p.m. Nighttime exposure to An. arabiensis was greater outdoors (54.5%), while daytime exposure was greater indoors (80.4%). For An. funestus, higher exposure was observed indoors, both at nighttime (57.1%) and daytime (69%). Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites were detected in both day-biting and night-biting An. arabiensis. Common daytime activities potentially exposing residents during peak biting hours included household chores, eating, sleeping (including due to sickness), resting in the shade or under verandas and playing (children). From evenings onwards, exposures coincided with resting, socializing before bedtime and playtime (children). Nearly all survey respondents (95.6%) reported experiencing daytime mosquito bites, but only 28% believed malaria was transmissible diurnally.

CONCLUSIONS

This study updates our understanding of malaria vector biting patterns in south-eastern Tanzania, revealing considerable additional risk in the mornings, daytime and evenings. Consequently, there may be more gaps in the protection provided by ITNs, which primarily target nocturnal mosquitoes, than previously thought. Complementary strategies are needed to holistically suppress vectors regardless of biting patterns (e.g. using larval source management) and to extend personal protection limits (e.g. using repellents). Additionally, community engagement and education on mosquito activity and protective measures could significantly reduce malaria transmission risk.

Dramatic resurgence of malaria after 7 years of intensive vector control interventions in Eastern Uganda

Tororo District, Uganda experienced a dramatic decrease in malaria burden from 2015-19 during 5 years of indoor residual spraying (IRS) with carbamate (Bendiocarb) and then organophosphate (Actellic) insecticides. However, a marked resurgence occurred in 2020, which coincided with a change to a clothianidin-based IRS formulations (Fludora Fusion/SumiShield). To quantify the magnitude of the resurgence, investigate causes, and evaluate the impact of a shift back to IRS with Actellic in 2023, we assessed changes in malaria metrics in regions within and near Tororo District. Malaria surveillance data from Nagongera Health Center, Tororo District was included from 2011-2023. In addition, a cohort of 667 residents from 84 houses was followed from August 2020 through September 2023 from an area bordering Tororo and neighboring Busia District, where IRS has never been implemented. Cohort participants underwent passive surveillance for clinical malaria and active surveillance for parasitemia every 28 days. Mosquitoes were collected in cohort households every 2 weeks using CDC light traps. Female Anopheles were speciated and tested for sporozoites and phenotypic insecticide resistance. Temporal comparisons of malaria metrics were stratified by geographic regions. At Nagongera Health Center average monthly malaria cases varied from 419 prior to implementation of IRS; to 56 after 5 years of IRS with Bendiocarb and Actellic; to 1591 after the change in IRS to Fludora Fusion/SumiShield; to 155 after a change back to Actellic. Among cohort participants living away from the border in Tororo, malaria incidence increased over 8-fold (0.36 vs. 2.97 episodes per person year, p<0.0001) and parasite prevalence increased over 4-fold (17% vs. 70%, p<0.0001) from 2021 to 2022 when Fludora Fusion/SumiShield was used. Incidence decreased almost 5-fold (2.97 vs. 0.70, p<0.0001) and prevalence decreased by 39% (70% vs. 43%, p<0.0001) after shifting back to Actellic. There was a similar pattern among those living near the border in Tororo, with increased incidence between 2021 and 2022 (0.93 vs. 2.40, p<0.0001) followed by a decrease after the change to Actellic (2.40 vs. 1.33, p<0.001). Among residents of Busia, malaria incidence did not change significantly over the 3 years of observation. Malaria resurgence in Tororo was temporally correlated with the replacement of An. gambiae s.s. by An. funestus as the primary vector, with a marked decrease in the density of An. funestus following the shift back to IRS with Actellic. In Busia, An. gambiae s.s. remained the primary vector throughout the observation period. Sporozoite rates were approximately 50% higher among An. funestus compared to the other common malaria vectors. Insecticide resistance phenotyping of An. funestus revealed high tolerance to clothianidin, but full susceptibility to Actellic. A dramatic resurgence of malaria in Tororo was temporally associated with a change to clothianidin-based IRS formulations and emergence of An. funestus as the predominant vector. Malaria decreased after a shift back to IRS with Actellic. This study highlights the ability of malaria vectors to rapidly circumvent control efforts and the importance of high-quality surveillance systems to assess the impact of malaria control interventions and generate timely, actionable data.

Varied Prevalence of Antimalarial Drug Resistance Markers in Different Populations of Newly Arrived Refugees in Uganda

Newly arrived refugees offer insights into malaria epidemiology in their countries of origin. We evaluated asymptomatic refugee children within 7 days of arrival in Uganda from South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 2022 for parasitemia, parasite species, and Plasmodium falciparum drug resistance markers. Asymptomatic P. falciparum infections were common in both populations. Coinfection with P. malariae was more common in DRC refugees. Prevalences of markers of aminoquinoline resistance (PfCRT K76T, PfMDR1 N86Y) were much higher in South Sudan refugees, of antifolate resistance (PfDHFR C59R and I164L, PfDHPS A437G, K540E, and A581G) much higher in DRC refugees, and of artemisinin partial resistance (ART-R; PfK13 C469Y and A675V) moderate in both populations. Prevalences of most mutations differed from those seen in Ugandans attending health centers near the refugee centers. Refugee evaluations yielded insights into varied malaria epidemiology and identified markers of ART-R in 2 previously little-studied countries.

The Uganda housing modification study - association between housing characteristics and malaria burden in a moderate to high transmission setting in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Scale up of proven malaria control interventions has not been sufficient to control malaria in Uganda, emphasizing the need to explore innovative new approaches. Improved housing is one such promising strategy. This paper describes housing characteristics and their association with malaria burden in a moderate to high transmission setting in Uganda.

METHODS

Between October and November 2021, a household survey was conducted in 1500 randomly selected households in Jinja and Luuka districts. Information on demographics, housing characteristics, use of malaria prevention measures, and proxy indicators of wealth were collected for each household. A finger-prick blood sample was obtained for thick blood smears for malaria from all children aged 6 months to 14 years in the surveyed households. Febrile children had a malaria rapid diagnostics test (RDT) done; positive cases were managed according to national treatment guidelines. Haemoglobin was assessed in children aged < 5 years. Households were stratified as having modern houses (defined as having finished materials for roofs, walls, and floors and closed eaves) or traditional houses (those not meeting the definition of modern house). Associations between malaria burden and house type were estimated using mixed effects models and adjusted for age, wealth, and bed net use.

RESULTS

Most (65.5%) of the households surveyed lived in traditional houses. Most of the houses had closed eaves (85.5%), however, the use of other protective features like window/vent screens and installed ceilings was limited (0.4% had screened windows, 2.8% had screened air vents, and 5.2% had ceiling). Overall, 3,443 children were included in the clinical survey, of which 31.4% had a positive smear. RDT test positivity rate was 56.6% among children with fever. Participants living in modern houses had a significantly lower parasite prevalence by microscopy (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR = 0.80]; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71 - 0.90), RDT test positivity rate (aPR = 0.90, 95%CI 0.81 - 0.99), and anaemia (aPR = 0.80, 95%CI 0.65 - 0.97) compared to those in traditional houses.

CONCLUSION

The study found that even after adjusting for wealth, higher quality housing had a moderate protective effect against malaria, on top of the protection already afforded by recently distributed nets.

Distribution and insecticide resistance profile of the major malaria vector Anopheles funestus group across the African continent

There has been significant progress in malaria control in the last 2 decades, with a decline in mortality and morbidity. However, these gains are jeopardised by insecticide resistance, which negatively impacts the core interventions, such as insecticide-treated nets (ITN) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). While most malaria control and research efforts are still focused on Anopheles gambiae complex mosquitoes, Anopheles funestus remains an important vector in many countries and, in some cases, contributes to most of the local transmission. As countries move towards malaria elimination, it is important to ensure that all dominant vector species, including An. funestus, an important vector in some countries, are targeted. The objective of this review is to compile and discuss information related to A. funestus populations' resistance to insecticides and the mechanisms involved across Africa, emphasising the sibling species and their resistance profiles in relation to malaria elimination goals. Data on insecticide resistance in An. funestus malaria vectors in Africa were extracted from published studies. Online bibliographic databases, including Google Scholar and PubMed, were used to search for relevant studies. Articles published between 2000 and May 2023 reporting resistance of An. funestus to insecticides and associated mechanisms were included. Those reporting only bionomics were excluded. Spatial variation in species distribution and resistance to insecticides was recorded from 174 articles that met the selection criteria. It was found that An. funestus was increasingly resistant to the four classes of insecticides recommended by the World Health Organisation for malaria vector control; however, this varied by country. Insecticide resistance appears to reduce the effectiveness of vector control methods, particularly IRS and ITN. Biochemical resistance due to detoxification enzymes (P450s and glutathione-S-transferases [GSTs]) in An. funestus was widely recorded. However, An. funestus in Africa remains susceptible to other insecticide classes, such as organophosphates and neonicotinoids. This review highlights the increasing insecticide resistance of An. funestus mosquitoes, which are important malaria vectors in Africa, posing a significant challenge to malaria control efforts. While An. funestus has shown resistance to the recommended insecticide classes, notably pyrethroids and, in some cases, organochlorides and carbamates, it remains susceptible to other classes of insecticides such as organophosphates and neonicotinoids, providing potential alternative options for vector control strategies. The study underscores the need for targeted interventions that consider the population structure and geographical distribution of An. funestus, including its sibling species and their insecticide resistance profiles, to effectively achieve malaria elimination goals.

Impact of four years of annually repeated indoor residual spraying (IRS) with Actellic 300CS on routinely reported malaria cases in an agricultural setting in Malawi

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is one of the main vector control tools used in malaria prevention. This study evaluates IRS in the context of a privately run campaign conducted across a low-lying, irrigated, sugarcane estate from Illovo Sugar, in the Chikwawa district of Malawi. The effect of Actellic 300CS annual spraying over four years (2015-2018) was assessed using a negative binomial mixed effects model, in an area where pyrethroid resistance has previously been identified. With an unadjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.32-0.45) and an adjusted IRR of 0.50 (95% CI: 0.42-0.59), IRS has significantly contributed to a reduction in case incidence rates at Illovo, as compared to control clinics and time points outside of the six month protective period. This study shows how the consistency of a privately run IRS campaign can improve the health of employees. More research is needed on the duration of protection and optimal timing of IRS programmes.

Reduction of malaria case incidence following the introduction of clothianidin-based indoor residual spraying in previously unsprayed districts: an observational analysis using health facility register data from Côte d'Ivoire, 2018-2022

BACKGROUND

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) using neonicotinoid-based insecticides (clothianidin and combined clothianidin with deltamethrin) was deployed in two previously unsprayed districts of Côte d'Ivoire in 2020 and 2021 to complement standard pyrethroid insecticide-treated nets. This retrospective observational study uses health facility register data to assess the impact of IRS on clinically reported malaria case incidence.

METHODS

Health facility data were abstracted from consultation registers for the period September 2018 to April 2022 in two IRS districts and two control districts that did not receive IRS. Malaria cases reported by community health workers (CHWs) were obtained from district reports and District Health Information Systems 2. Facilities missing complete data were excluded. Controlled interrupted time series models were used to estimate the effect of IRS on monthly all-ages population-adjusted confirmed malaria cases and cases averted by IRS. Models controlled for transmission season, precipitation, vegetation, temperature, proportion of cases reported by CHWs, proportion of tested out of suspected cases and non-malaria outpatient visits.

RESULTS

An estimated 10 988 (95% CI 5694 to 18 188) malaria cases were averted in IRS districts the year following the 2020 IRS campaign, representing a 15.9% reduction compared with if IRS had not been deployed. Case incidence in IRS districts dropped by 27.7% (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.723, 95% CI 0.592 to 0.885) the month after the campaign. In the 8 months after the 2021 campaign, 14 170 (95% CI 13 133 to 15 025) estimated cases were averted, a 24.7% reduction, and incidence in IRS districts dropped by 37.9% (IRR 0.621, 95% CI 0.462 to 0.835) immediately after IRS. Case incidence in control districts did not change following IRS either year (p>0.05) and the difference in incidence level change between IRS and control districts was significant both years (p<0.05).

CONCLUSION

Deployment of clothianidin-based IRS was associated with a reduction in malaria case rates in two districts of Côte d'Ivoire following IRS deployment in 2020 and 2021.

Dramatic resurgence of malaria after 7 years of intensive vector control interventions in Eastern Uganda

Background

Tororo District, Uganda experienced a dramatic decrease in malaria burden from 2015-19 following 5 years of indoor residual spraying (IRS) with carbamate (Bendiocarb) and then organophosphate (Actellic) insecticides. However, a marked resurgence occurred in 2020, which coincided with a change to a clothianidin-based IRS formulations (Fludora Fusion/SumiShield). To quantify the magnitude of the resurgence, investigate causes, and evaluate the impact of a shift back to IRS with Actellic in 2023, we assessed changes in malaria metrics in regions within and near Tororo District.

Methods

Malaria surveillance data from Nagongera Health Center, Tororo District was included from 2011-2023. In addition, a cohort of 667 residents from 84 houses was followed from August 2020 through September 2023 from an area bordering Tororo and neighboring Busia District, where IRS has never been implemented. Cohort participants underwent passive surveillance for clinical malaria and active surveillance for parasitemia every 28 days. Mosquitoes were collected in cohort households every 2 weeks using CDC light traps. Female Anopheles were speciated and tested for sporozoites and phenotypic insecticide resistance. Temporal comparisons of malaria metrics were stratified by geographic regions.

Findings

At Nagongera Health Center average monthly malaria cases varied from 419 prior to implementation of IRS; to 56 after 5 years of IRS with Bendiocarb and Actellic; to 1591 after the change in IRS to Fludora Fusion/SumiShield; to 155 after a change back to Actellic. Among cohort participants living away from the border in Tororo, malaria incidence increased over 8-fold (0.36 vs. 2.97 episodes per person year, p<0.0001) and parasite prevalence increased over 4-fold (17% vs. 70%, p<0.0001) from 2021 to 2022 when Fludora Fusion/SumiShield was used. Incidence decreased almost 5-fold (2.97 vs. 0.70, p<0.0001) and prevalence decreased by 39% (70% vs. 43%, p<0.0001) after shifting back to Actellic. There was a similar pattern among those living near the border in Tororo, with increased incidence between 2021 and 2022 (0.93 vs. 2.40, p<0.0001) followed by a decrease after the change to Actellic (2.40 vs. 1.33, p<0.001). Among residents of Busia, malaria incidence did not change significantly over the 3 years of observation. Malaria resurgence in Tororo was temporally correlated with the replacement of An. gambiae s.s. by An. funestus as the primary vector, with a marked decrease in the density of An. funestus following the shift back to IRS with Actellic. In Busia, An. gambiae s.s. remained the primary vector throughout the observation period. Sporozoite rates were approximately 50% higher among An. funestus compared to the other common malaria vectors. Insecticide resistance phenotyping of An. funestus revealed high tolerance to clothianidin, but full susceptibility to Actellic.

Conclusions

A dramatic resurgence of malaria in Tororo was temporally associated with a change to clothianidin-based IRS formulations and emergence of An. funestus as the predominant vector. Malaria decreased after a shift back to IRS with Actellic. This study highlights the ability of malaria vectors to rapidly circumvent control efforts and the importance of high-quality surveillance systems to assess the impact of malaria control interventions and generate timely, actionable data.

Predicting malaria risk considering vector control interventions under climate change scenarios

Many studies have projected malaria risks with climate change scenarios by modelling one or two environmental variables and without the consideration of malaria control interventions. We aimed to predict the risk of malaria with climate change considering the influence of rainfall, humidity, temperatures, vegetation, and vector control interventions (indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN)). We used negative binomial models based on weekly malaria data from six facility-based surveillance sites in Uganda from 2010-2018, to estimate associations between malaria, environmental variables and interventions, accounting for the non-linearity of environmental variables. Associations were applied to future climate scenarios to predict malaria distribution using an ensemble of Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Predictions including interaction effects between environmental variables and interventions were also explored. The results showed upward trends in the annual malaria cases by 25% to 30% by 2050s in the absence of intervention but there was great variability in the predictions (historical vs RCP 4.5 medians [Min-Max]: 16,785 [9,902-74,382] vs 21,289 [11,796-70,606]). The combination of IRS and LLIN, IRS alone, and LLIN alone would contribute to reducing the malaria burden by 76%, 63% and 35% respectively. Similar conclusions were drawn from the predictions of the models with and without interactions between environmental factors and interventions, suggesting that the interactions have no added value for the predictions. The results highlight the need for maintaining vector control interventions for malaria prevention and control in the context of climate change given the potential public health and economic implications of increasing malaria in Uganda.

Prediction of malaria positivity using patients' demographic and environmental features and clinical symptoms to complement parasitological confirmation before treatment

BACKGROUND

Current malaria diagnosis methods that rely on microscopy and Histidine Rich Protein-2 (HRP2)-based rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) have drawbacks that necessitate the development of improved and complementary malaria diagnostic methods to overcome some or all these limitations. Consequently, the addition of automated detection and classification of malaria using laboratory methods can provide patients with more accurate and faster diagnosis. Therefore, this study used a machine-learning model to predict Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) antigen positivity (presence of malaria) based on sociodemographic behaviour, environment, and clinical features.

METHOD

Data from 200 Nigerian patients were used to develop predictive models using nested cross-validation and sequential backward feature selection (SBFS), with 80% of the dataset randomly selected for training and optimisation and the remaining 20% for testing the models. Outcomes were classified as Pf-positive or Pf-negative, corresponding to the presence or absence of malaria, respectively.

RESULTS

Among the three machine learning models examined, the penalised logistic regression model had the best area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the training set (AUC = 84%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 75-93%) and test set (AUC = 83%; 95% CI: 63-100%). Increased odds of malaria were associated with higher body weight (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 4.50, 95% CI: 2.27 to 8.01, p < 0.0001). Even though the association between the odds of having malaria and body temperature was not significant, patients with high body temperature had higher odds of testing positive for the Pf antigen than those who did not have high body temperature (AOR = 1.40, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.91, p = 0.068). In addition, patients who had bushes in their surroundings (AOR = 2.60, 95% CI: 1.30 to 4.66, p = 0.006) or experienced fever (AOR = 2.10, 95% CI: 0.88 to 4.24, p = 0.099), headache (AOR = 2.07; 95% CI: 0.95 to 3.95, p = 0.068), muscle pain (AOR = 1.49; 95% CI: 0.66 to 3.39, p = 0.333), and vomiting (AOR = 2.32; 95% CI: 0.85 to 6.82, p = 0.097) were more likely to experience malaria. In contrast, decreased odds of malaria were associated with age (AOR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.41 to 0.90, p = 0.012) and BMI (AOR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.26 to 0.80, p = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

Newly developed routinely collected baseline sociodemographic, environmental, and clinical features to predict Pf antigen positivity may be a valuable tool for clinical decision-making.

Differential Influence of Environmental Factors on Malaria Due to Vector Control Interventions in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Few studies have explored how vector control interventions may modify associations between environmental factors and malaria.

METHODS

We used weekly malaria cases reported from six public health facilities in Uganda. Environmental variables (temperature, rainfall, humidity, and vegetation) were extracted from remote sensing sources. The non-linearity of environmental variables was investigated, and negative binomial regression models were used to explore the influence of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) on associations between environmental factors and malaria incident cases for each site as well as pooled across the facilities, with or without considering the interaction between environmental variables and vector control interventions.

RESULTS

An average of 73.3 weekly malaria cases per site (range: 0-597) occurred between 2010 and 2018. From the pooled model, malaria risk related to environmental variables was reduced by about 35% with LLINs and 63% with IRS. Significant interactions were observed between some environmental variables and vector control interventions. There was site-specific variability in the shape of the environment-malaria risk relationship and in the influence of interventions (6 to 72% reduction in cases with LLINs and 43 to 74% with IRS).

CONCLUSION

The influence of vector control interventions on the malaria-environment relationship need to be considered at a local scale in order to efficiently guide control programs.

Evolution of Partial Resistance to Artemisinins in Malaria Parasites in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Partial resistance of Plasmodium falciparum to the artemisinin component of artemisinin-based combination therapies, the most important malaria drugs, emerged in Southeast Asia and now threatens East Africa. Partial resistance, which manifests as delayed clearance after therapy, is mediated principally by mutations in the kelch protein K13 (PfK13). Limited longitudinal data are available on the emergence and spread of artemisinin resistance in Africa.

METHODS

We performed annual surveillance among patients who presented with uncomplicated malaria at 10 to 16 sites across Uganda from 2016 through 2022. We sequenced the gene encoding kelch 13 (pfk13) and analyzed relatedness using molecular methods. We assessed malaria metrics longitudinally in eight Ugandan districts from 2014 through 2021.

RESULTS

By 2021-2022, the prevalence of parasites with validated or candidate resistance markers reached more than 20% in 11 of the 16 districts where surveillance was conducted. The PfK13 469Y and 675V mutations were seen in far northern Uganda in 2016-2017 and increased and spread thereafter, reaching a combined prevalence of 10 to 54% across much of northern Uganda, with spread to other regions. The 469F mutation reached a prevalence of 38 to 40% in one district in southwestern Uganda in 2021-2022. The 561H mutation, previously described in Rwanda, was first seen in southwestern Uganda in 2021, reaching a prevalence of 23% by 2022. The 441L mutation reached a prevalence of 12 to 23% in three districts in western Uganda in 2022. Genetic analysis indicated local emergence of mutant parasites independent of those in Southeast Asia. The emergence of resistance was observed predominantly in areas where effective malaria control had been discontinued or transmission was unstable.

CONCLUSIONS

Data from Uganda showed the emergence of partial resistance to artemisinins in multiple geographic locations, with increasing prevalence and regional spread over time. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.).

Using routine health data to evaluate the impact of indoor residual spraying on malaria transmission in Madagascar

INTRODUCTION

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) and insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) are cornerstone malaria prevention methods in Madagascar. This retrospective observational study uses routine data to evaluate the impacts of IRS overall, sustained IRS exposure over multiple years and level of spray coverage (structures sprayed/found) in nine districts where non-pyrethroid IRS was deployed to complement standard pyrethroid ITNs from 2017 to 2020.

METHODS

Multilevel negative-binomial generalised linear models were fit to estimate the effects of IRS exposure overall, consecutive years of IRS exposure and spray coverage level on monthly all-ages population-adjusted malaria cases confirmed by rapid diagnostic test at the health facility level. The study period extended from July 2016 to June 2021. Facilities with missing data and non-geolocated communes were excluded. Facilities in IRS districts were matched with control facilities by propensity score analysis. Models were controlled for ITN survivorship, mass drug administration coverage, precipitation, enhanced vegetation index, seasonal effects and district. Predicted cases under a counterfactual no IRS scenario and number of cases averted by IRS were estimated using the fitted models.

RESULTS

Exposure to IRS overall reduced case incidence by an estimated 30.3% from 165.8 cases per 1000 population (95% CI=139.7 to 196.7) under a counterfactual no IRS scenario, to 114.3 (95% CI=96.5 to 135.3) over 12 months post-IRS campaign in nine districts. A third year of IRS reduced malaria cases 30.9% more than a first year (incidence rate ratio (IRR)=0.578, 95% CI=0.578 to 0.825, p<0.001) and 26.7% more than a second year (IRR=0.733, 95% CI=0.611 to 0.878, p=0.001). There was no significant difference between the first and second year (p>0.05). Coverage of 86%-90% was associated with a 19.7% reduction in incidence (IRR=0.803, 95% CI=0.690 to 0.934, p=0.005) compared with coverage ≤85%, although these results were not robust to sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates that non-pyrethroid IRS appears to substantially reduce malaria incidence in Madagascar and that sustained implementation of IRS over three years confers additional benefits.

Mapping malaria incidence using routine health facility surveillance data in Uganda

INTRODUCTION

Maps of malaria risk are important tools for allocating resources and tracking progress. Most maps rely on cross-sectional surveys of parasite prevalence, but health facilities represent an underused and powerful data source. We aimed to model and map malaria incidence using health facility data in Uganda.

METHODS

Using 24 months (2019-2020) of individual-level outpatient data collected from 74 surveillance health facilities located in 41 districts across Uganda (n=445 648 laboratory-confirmed cases), we estimated monthly malaria incidence for parishes within facility catchment areas (n=310) by estimating care-seeking population denominators. We fit spatio-temporal models to the incidence estimates to predict incidence rates for the rest of Uganda, informed by environmental, sociodemographic and intervention variables. We mapped estimated malaria incidence and its uncertainty at the parish level and compared estimates to other metrics of malaria. To quantify the impact that indoor residual spraying (IRS) may have had, we modelled counterfactual scenarios of malaria incidence in the absence of IRS.

RESULTS

Over 4567 parish-months, malaria incidence averaged 705 cases per 1000 person-years. Maps indicated high burden in the north and northeast of Uganda, with lower incidence in the districts receiving IRS. District-level estimates of cases correlated with cases reported by the Ministry of Health (Spearman's r=0.68, p<0.0001), but were considerably higher (40 166 418 cases estimated compared with 27 707 794 cases reported), indicating the potential for underreporting by the routine surveillance system. Modelling of counterfactual scenarios suggest that approximately 6.2 million cases were averted due to IRS across the study period in the 14 districts receiving IRS (estimated population 8 381 223).

CONCLUSION

Outpatient information routinely collected by health systems can be a valuable source of data for mapping malaria burden. National Malaria Control Programmes may consider investing in robust surveillance systems within public health facilities as a low-cost, high benefit tool to identify vulnerable regions and track the impact of interventions.

Spatio-temporal trends of malaria incidence from 2011 to 2017 and environmental predictors of malaria transmission in Myanmar

BACKGROUND

Myanmar bears the heaviest malaria burden in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). This study assessed the spatio-temporal dynamics and environmental predictors of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria in Myanmar.

METHODS

Monthly reports of malaria cases at primary health centers during 2011-2017 were analyzed to describe malaria distribution across Myanmar at the township and state/region levels by spatial autocorrelation (Moran index) and spatio-temporal clustering. Negative binomial generalized additive models identified environmental predictors for falciparum and vivax malaria, respectively.

RESULTS

From 2011 to 2017, there was an apparent reduction in malaria incidence in Myanmar. Malaria incidence peaked in June each year. There were significant spatial autocorrelation and clustering with extreme spatial heterogeneity in malaria cases and test positivity across the nation (P < 0.05). Areas with higher malaria incidence were concentrated along international borders. Primary clusters of P. falciparum persisted in western townships, while clusters of P. vivax shifted geographically over the study period. The primary cluster was detected from January 2011 to December 2013 and covered two states (Sagaing and Kachin). Annual malaria incidence was highest in townships with a mean elevation of 500‒600 m and a high variance in elevation (states with both high and low elevation). There was an apparent linear relationship between the mean normalized difference vegetative index and annual P. falciparum incidence (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The decreasing trends reflect the significant achievement of malaria control efforts in Myanmar. Prioritizing the allocation of resources to high-risk areas identified in this study can achieve effective disease control.

Burkitt lymphoma risk shows geographic and temporal associations with Plasmodium falciparum infections in Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya

Endemic Burkitt lymphoma (eBL) is a pediatric cancer coendemic with malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting an etiological link between them. However, previous cross-sectional studies of limited geographic areas have not found a convincing association. We used spatially detailed data from the Epidemiology of Burkitt Lymphoma in East African Children and Minors (EMBLEM) study to assess this relationship. EMBLEM is a case-control study of eBL from 2010 through 2016 in six regions of Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. To measure the intensity of exposure to the malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, among children in these regions, we used high-resolution spatial data from the Malaria Atlas Project to estimate the annual number of P. falciparum infections from 2000 through 2016 for each of 49 districts within the study region. Cumulative P. falciparum exposure, calculated as the sum of annual infections by birth cohort, varied widely, with a median of 47 estimated infections per child by age 10, ranging from 4 to 315 infections. eBL incidence increased 39% for each 100 additional lifetime P. falciparum infections (95% CI: 6.10 to 81.04%) with the risk peaking among children aged 5 to 11 and declining thereafter. Alternative models using estimated annual P. falciparum infections 0 to 10 y before eBL onset were inconclusive, suggesting that eBL risk is a function of cumulative rather than recent cross-sectional exposure. Our findings provide population-level evidence that eBL is a phenotype related to heavy lifetime exposure to P. falciparum malaria and support emphasizing the link between malaria and eBL.

Characterizing pyrethroid resistance and mechanisms in Anopheles gambiae (s.s.) and Anopheles arabiensis from 11 districts in Uganda

Insecticide resistance threatens recent progress on malaria control in Africa. To characterize pyrethroid resistance in Uganda, Anopheles gambiae (s.s.) and Anopheles arabiensis were analyzed from 11 sites with varied vector control strategies. Mosquito larvae were collected between May 2018 and December 2020. Sites were categorized as receiving no indoor-residual spraying ('no IRS', n ​= ​3); where IRS was delivered from 2009 to 2014 and in 2017 and then discontinued ('IRS stopped', n ​= ​4); and where IRS had been sustained since 2014 ('IRS active', n ​= ​4). IRS included bendiocarb, pirimiphos methyl and clothianidin. All sites received long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) in 2017. Adult mosquitoes were exposed to pyrethroids; with or without piperonyl butoxide (PBO). Anopheles gambiae (s.s.) and An. arabiensis were identified using PCR. Anopheles gambiae (s.s.) were genotyped for Vgsc-995S/F, Cyp6aa1, Cyp6p4-I236M, ZZB-TE, Cyp4j5-L43F and Coeae1d, while An. arabiensis were examined for Vgsc-1014S/F. Overall, 2753 An. gambiae (s.l.), including 1105 An. gambiae (s.s.) and 1648 An. arabiensis were evaluated. Species composition varied by site; only nine An. gambiae (s.s.) were collected from 'IRS active' sites, precluding species-specific comparisons. Overall, mortality following exposure to permethrin and deltamethrin was 18.8% (148/788) in An. gambiae (s.s.) and 74.6% (912/1222) in An. arabiensis. Mortality was significantly lower in An. gambiae (s.s.) than in An. arabiensis in 'no IRS' sites (permethrin: 16.1 vs 67.7%, P ​< ​0.001; deltamethrin: 24.6 vs 83.7%, P ​< ​0.001) and in 'IRS stopped' sites (permethrin: 11.3 vs 63.6%, P ​< ​0.001; deltamethrin: 25.6 vs 88.9%, P ​< ​0.001). When PBO was added, mortality increased for An. gambiae (s.s.) and An. arabiensis. Most An. gambiae (s.s.) had the Vgsc-995S/F mutation (95% frequency) and the Cyp6p4-I236M resistance allele (87%), while the frequency of Cyp4j5 and Coeae1d were lower (52% and 55%, respectively). Resistance to pyrethroids was widespread and higher in An. gambiae (s.s.). Where IRS was active, An. arabiensis dominated. Addition of PBO to pyrethroids increased mortality, supporting deployment of PBO LLINs. Further surveillance of insecticide resistance and assessment of associations between genotypic markers and phenotypic outcomes are needed to better understand mechanisms of pyrethroid resistance and to guide vector control.

Impact of different mosquito collection methods on indicators of Anopheles malaria vectors in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Methods used to sample mosquitoes are important to consider when estimating entomologic metrics. Human landing catches (HLCs) are considered the gold standard for collecting malaria vectors. However, HLCs are labour intensive, can expose collectors to transmission risk, and are difficult to implement at scale. This study compared alternative methods to HLCs for collecting Anopheles mosquitoes in eastern Uganda.

METHODS

Between June and November 2021, mosquitoes were collected from randomly selected households in three parishes in Tororo and Busia districts. Mosquitoes were collected indoors and outdoors using HLCs in 16 households every 4 weeks. Additional collections were done indoors with prokopack aspirators, and outdoors with pit traps, in these 16 households every 2 weeks. CDC light trap collections were done indoors in 80 households every 4 weeks. Female Anopheles mosquitoes were identified morphologically and Anopheles gambiae sensu lato were speciated using PCR. Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite testing was done with ELISA.

RESULTS

Overall, 4,891 female Anopheles were collected, including 3,318 indoors and 1,573 outdoors. Compared to indoor HLCs, vector density (mosquitoes per unit collection) was lower using CDC light traps (4.24 vs 2.96, density ratio [DR] 0.70, 95% CIs 0.63-0.77, p < 0.001) and prokopacks (4.24 vs 1.82, DR 0.43, 95% CIs 0.37-0.49, p < 0.001). Sporozoite rates were similar between indoor methods, although precision was limited. Compared to outdoor HLCs, vector density was higher using pit trap collections (3.53 vs 6.43, DR 1.82, 95% CIs 1.61-2.05, p < 0.001), while the sporozoite rate was lower (0.018 vs 0.004, rate ratio [RR] 0.23, 95% CIs 0.07-0.75, p = 0.008). Prokopacks collected a higher proportion of Anopheles funestus (75.0%) than indoor HLCs (25.8%), while pit traps collected a higher proportion of Anopheles arabiensis (84.3%) than outdoor HLCs (36.9%).

CONCLUSION

In this setting, the density and species of mosquitoes collected with alternative methods varied, reflecting the feeding and resting characteristics of the common vectors and the different collection approaches. These differences could impact on the accuracy of entomological indicators and estimates of malaria transmission, when using the alternative methods for sampling mosquitos, as compared to HLCs.

Effectiveness of indoor residual spraying on malaria control: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is one of the key interventions recommended by World Health Organization in preventing malaria infection. We aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of global studies about the impact of IRS on malaria control.

Method

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Scopus for relevant studies published from database establishment to 31 December 2021. Random-effects models were used to perform meta-analysis and subgroup analysis to pool the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Meta-regression was used to investigate potential factors of heterogeneity across studies.

Results

Thirty-eight articles including 81 reports and 1,174,970 individuals were included in the meta-analysis. IRS was associated with lower rates of malaria infection (OR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.27–0.44). The significantly higher effectiveness was observed in IRS coverage ≥ 80% than in IRS coverage < 80%. Pyrethroids was identified to show the greatest performance in malaria control. In addition, higher effectiveness was associated with a lower gross domestic product as well as a higher coverage of IRS and bed net utilization.

Conclusions

IRS could induce a positive effect on malaria infection globally. The high IRS coverage and the use of pyrethroids are key measures to reduce malaria infection. More efforts should focus on increasing IRS coverage, developing more effective new insecticides against malaria, and using multiple interventions comprehensively to achieve malaria control goals.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-022-01005-8.

VECTRON™ T500, a new broflanilide insecticide for indoor residual spraying, provides prolonged control of pyrethroid-resistant malaria vectors

Background

Broflanilide is a newly discovered insecticide with a novel mode of action targeting insect γ-aminobutyric acid receptors. The efficacy of VECTRON™ T500, a wettable powder formulation of broflanilide, was assessed for IRS against wild pyrethroid-resistant malaria vectors in experimental huts in Benin.

Methods

VECTRON™ T500 was evaluated at 100 mg/m2 in mud and cement-walled experimental huts against wild pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) in Covè, southern Benin, over 18 months. A direct comparison was made with Actellic® 300CS, a WHO-recommended micro-encapsulated formulation of pirimiphos-methyl, applied at 1000 mg/m2. The vector population at Covè was investigated for susceptibility to broflanilide and other classes of insecticides used for vector control. Monthly wall cone bioassays were performed to assess the residual efficacy of VECTRON™ T500 using insecticide susceptible An. gambiae Kisumu and pyrethroid-resistant An. gambiae s.l. Covè strains. The study complied with OECD principles of good laboratory practice.

Results

The vector population at Covè was resistant to pyrethroids and organochlorines but susceptible to broflanilide and pirimiphos-methyl. A total of 23,171 free-flying wild pyrethroid-resistant female An. gambiae s.l. were collected in the experimental huts over 12 months. VECTRON™ T500 induced 56%-60% mortality in wild vector mosquitoes in both cement and mud-walled huts. Mortality with VECTRON™ T500 was 62%-73% in the first three months and remained > 50% for 9 months on both substrate-types. By comparison, mortality with Actellic® 300CS was very high in the first three months (72%-95%) but declined sharply to < 40% after 4 months. Using a non-inferiority margin defined by the World Health Organization, overall mortality achieved with VECTRON™ T500 was non-inferior to that observed in huts treated with Actellic® 300CS with both cement and mud wall substrates. Monthly in situ wall cone bioassay mortality with VECTRON™ T500 also remained over 80% for 18 months but dropped below 80% with Actellic® 300CS at 6–7 months post spraying.

Conclusion

VECTRON™ T500 shows potential to provide substantial and prolonged control of malaria transmitted by pyrethroid-resistant mosquito vectors when applied for IRS. Its addition to the current list of WHO-approved IRS insecticides will provide a suitable option to facilitate rotation of IRS products with different modes of action.

Vulnerability of populations to malaria after indoor residual spraying is withdrawn from areas where its use has previously been sustained: a protocol for a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

With its proven effectiveness, indoor residual spraying (IRS) as a malaria vector control strategy forms one of the reliable vector control strategies, especially when at least 80% of the population is covered. However, to date, there is uncertainty regarding the consequences of IRS withdrawal on malaria control when there is no clear exit strategy in place. Therefore, there is a need to comprehensively update literature regarding malaria burden indicators when IRS is withdrawn following sustained use.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This protocol follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. A systematic search of studies published between 2000 and 2022 will be performed in CINAHL, Embase, MEDLINE, ProQuest, PsychInfo, Scopus and OpenGrey. Preset eligibility criteria will be used to identify studies for inclusion by two independent reviewers. Title/abstracts will first be screened and potentially eligible ones screened using their full-text publications. Any conflicts/discrepancies at the two stages will be resolved through regular discussion sessions. Included studies will be extracted to capture study and patient characteristics and relevant outcomes (malaria incidence and malaria vector abundance). Relevant tools will be used to assess the risk of bias in the studies measuring the impact of withdrawal. A meta-analysis will be performed if sufficient homogeneity exists; otherwise, data arising will be presented using tables and by employing narrative synthesis techniques. Heterogeneity will be assessed using a combination of visual inspection of the forest plot along with consideration of the χ² test and I² statistic results.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval is not applicable for this study since no original data will be collected. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. Furthermore, this systematic review will inform the design of exit strategies for IRS-based programmes in malaria-endemic areas.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022310655.

Association between indoor residual spraying and pregnancy outcomes: a quasi-experimental study from Uganda

BACKGROUND

Malaria is a risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Indoor residual spraying with insecticide (IRS) reduces malaria infections, yet the effects of IRS on pregnancy outcomes are not well established. We evaluated the impact of a large-scale IRS campaign on pregnancy outcomes in Eastern Uganda.

METHODS

Birth records (n = 59 992) were obtained from routine surveillance data at 25 health facilities from five districts that were part of the IRS campaign and six neighbouring control districts ∼27 months before and ∼24 months after the start of the campaign (January 2013-May 2017). Campaign effects on low birthweight (LBW) and stillbirth incidence were estimated using the matrix completion method (MC-NNM), a machine-learning approach to estimating potential outcomes, and compared with the difference-in-differences (DiD) estimator. Subgroup analyses were conducted by HIV and gravidity.

RESULTS

MC-NNM estimates indicated that the campaign was associated with a 33% reduction in LBW incidence: incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.67 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49-0.93)]. DiD estimates were similar to MC-NNM [IRR = 0.69 (0.47-1.01)], despite a parallel trends violation during the pre-IRS period. The campaign was not associated with substantial reductions in stillbirth incidence [IRRMC-NNM = 0.94 (0.50-1.77)]. HIV status modified the effects of the IRS campaign on LBW [βIRSxHIV = 0.42 (0.05-0.78)], whereby HIV-negative women appeared to benefit from the campaign [IRR = 0.70 (0.61-0.81)], but not HIV-positive women [IRR = 1.12 (0.59-2.12)].

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the effectiveness of the campaign in Eastern Uganda based on its benefit to LBW prevention, though HIV-positive women may require additional interventions. The IRS campaign was not associated with a substantively lower stillbirth incidence, warranting further research.

East Africa International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research: Impact on Malaria Policy in Uganda

Malaria is the leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2010, the East Africa International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research, also known as the Program for Resistance, Immunology, Surveillance, and Modeling of Malaria (PRISM), was established to provide a comprehensive approach to malaria surveillance in Uganda. We instituted cohort studies and a robust malaria and entomological surveillance network at selected public health facilities that have provided a platform for monitoring trends in malaria morbidity and mortality, tracking the impact of malaria control interventions (indoor residual spraying of insecticide [IRS], use of long-lasting insecticidal nets [LLINs], and case management with artemisinin-based combination therapies [ACTs]), as well as monitoring of antimalarial drug and insecticide resistance. PRISM studies have informed Uganda's malaria treatment policies, guided selection of LLINs for national distribution campaigns, and revealed widespread pyrethroid resistance, which led to changes in insecticides delivered through IRS. Our continuous engagement and interaction with policy makers at the Ugandan Ministry of Health have enabled PRISM to share evidence, best practices, and lessons learned with key malaria stakeholders, participate in malaria control program reviews, and contribute to malaria policy and national guidelines. Here, we present an overview of interactions between PRISM team members and Ugandan policy makers to demonstrate how PRISM's research has influenced malaria policy and control in Uganda.

The influence of the environment and indoor residual spraying on malaria risk in a cohort of children in Uganda

Studies have estimated the impact of the environment on malaria incidence although few have explored the differential impact due to malaria control interventions. Therefore, the objective of the study was to evaluate the effect of indoor residual spraying (IRS) on the relationship between malaria and environment (i.e. rainfall, temperatures, humidity, and vegetation) using data from a dynamic cohort of children from three sub-counties in Uganda. Environmental variables were extracted from remote sensing sources and averaged over different time periods. General linear mixed models were constructed for each sub-counties based on a log-binomial distribution. The influence of IRS was analysed by comparing marginal effects of environment in models adjusted and unadjusted for IRS. Great regional variability in the shape (linear and non-linear), direction, and magnitude of environmental associations with malaria risk were observed between sub-counties. IRS was significantly associated with malaria risk reduction (risk ratios vary from RR = 0.03, CI 95% [0.03-0.08] to RR = 0.35, CI95% [0.28-0.42]). Model adjustment for this intervention changed the magnitude and/or direction of environment-malaria associations, suggesting an interaction effect. This study evaluated the potential influence of IRS in the malaria-environment association and highlighted the necessity to control for interventions when they are performed to properly estimate the environmental influence on malaria. Local models are more informative to guide intervention program compared to national models.

Inferring the epidemiological benefit of indoor vector control interventions against malaria from mosquito data

The cause of malaria transmission has been known for over a century but it is still unclear whether entomological measures are sufficiently reliable to inform policy decisions in human health. Decision-making on the effectiveness of new insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and the indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) have been based on epidemiological data, typically collected in cluster-randomised control trials. The number of these trials that can be conducted is limited. Here we use a systematic review to highlight that efficacy estimates of the same intervention may vary substantially between trials. Analyses indicate that mosquito data collected in experimental hut trials can be used to parameterize mechanistic models for Plasmodium falciparum malaria and reliably predict the epidemiological efficacy of quick-acting, neuro-acting ITNs and IRS. Results suggest that for certain types of ITNs and IRS using this framework instead of clinical endpoints could support policy and expedite the widespread use of novel technologies.

Impact of seasonal malaria chemoprevention on prevalence of malaria infection in malaria indicator surveys in Burkina Faso and Nigeria

BACKGROUND

In 2012, the WHO issued a policy recommendation for the use of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) to children 3-59 months in areas of highly seasonal malaria transmission. Clinical trials have found SMC to prevent around 75% of clinical malaria. Impact under routine programmatic conditions has been assessed during research studies but there is a need to identify sustainable methods to monitor impact using routinely collected data.

METHODS

Data from Demographic Health Surveys were merged with rainfall, geographical and programme data in Burkina Faso (2010, 2014, 2017) and Nigeria (2010, 2015, 2018) to assess impact of SMC. We conducted mixed-effects logistic regression to predict presence of malaria infection in children aged 6-59 months (rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and microscopy, separately).

RESULTS

We found strong evidence that SMC administration decreases odds of malaria measured by RDT during SMC programmes, after controlling for seasonal factors, age, sex, net use and other variables (Burkina Faso OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.37, p<0.001; Nigeria OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.55, p<0.001). The odds of malaria were lower up to 2 months post-SMC in Burkina Faso (1-month post-SMC: OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.72, p=0.01; 2 months post-SMC: OR: 0.33, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.64, p<0.001). The odds of malaria were lower up to 1 month post-SMC in Nigeria but was not statistically significant (1-month post-SMC 0.49, 95% CI 0.23 to 1.05, p=0.07). A similar but weaker effect was seen for microscopy (Burkina Faso OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.52, p<0.001; Nigeria OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.76, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Impact of SMC can be detected in reduced prevalence of malaria from data collected through household surveys if conducted during SMC administration or within 2 months afterwards. Such evidence could contribute to broader evaluation of impact of SMC programmes.

Indoor residual spraying with a non-pyrethroid insecticide reduces the reservoir of Plasmodium falciparum in a high-transmission area in northern Ghana

High-malaria burden countries in sub-Saharan Africa are shifting from malaria control towards elimination. Hence, there is need to gain a contemporary understanding of how indoor residual spraying (IRS) with non-pyrethroid insecticides when combined with long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) impregnated with pyrethroid insecticides, contribute to the efforts of National Malaria Control Programmes to interrupt transmission and reduce the reservoir of Plasmodium falciparum infections across all ages. Using an interrupted time-series study design, four age-stratified malariometric surveys, each of ~2,000 participants, were undertaken pre- and post-IRS in Bongo District, Ghana. Following the application of three-rounds of IRS, P. falciparum transmission intensity declined, as measured by a >90% reduction in the monthly entomological inoculation rate. This decline was accompanied by reductions in parasitological parameters, with participants of all ages being significantly less likely to harbor P. falciparum infections at the end of the wet season post-IRS (aOR = 0.22 [95% CI: 0.19-0.26], p-value < 0.001). In addition, multiplicity of infection (MOI var ) was measured using a parasite fingerprinting tool, designed to capture within-host genome diversity. At the end of the wet season post-IRS, the prevalence of multi-genome infections declined from 75.6% to 54.1%. This study demonstrates that in areas characterized by high seasonal malaria transmission, IRS in combination with LLINs can significantly reduce the reservoir of P. falciparum infection. Nonetheless despite this success, 41.6% of the population, especially older children and adolescents, still harboured multi-genome infections. Given the persistence of this diverse reservoir across all ages, these data highlight the importance of sustaining vector control in combination with targeted chemotherapy to move high-transmission settings towards pre-elimination. This study also points to the benefits of molecular surveillance to ensure that incremental achievements are not lost and that the goals advocated for in the WHO's High Burden to High Impact strategy are realized.

Resurgent and delayed malaria

The populations of moderate or highly malaria endemic areas gradually acquire some immunity to malaria as a result of repeated exposure to the infection. When this exposure is reduced as a result of effective malaria control measures, subjects who benefitted from the intervention may consequently be at increased risk of malaria if the intervention is withdrawn, especially if this is done abruptly, and an effective malaria vector remains. There have been many examples of this occurring in the past, a phenomenon often termed ‘rebound malaria’, with the incidence of malaria rebounding to the level present before the intervention was introduced. Because the main clinical burden of malaria in areas with a high level of malaria transmission is in young children, malaria control efforts have, in recent decades, focussed on this group, with substantial success being obtained with interventions such as insecticide treated mosquito nets, chemoprevention and, most recently, malaria vaccines. These are interventions whose administration may not be sustained. This has led to concerns that in these circumstances, the overall burden of malaria in children may not be reduced but just delayed, with the main period of risk being in the period shortly after the intervention is no longer given. Although dependent on the same underlying process as classical ‘resurgent’ malaria, it may be helpful to differentiate the two conditions, describing the later as ‘delayed malaria’. In this paper, some of the evidence that delayed malaria occurs is discussed and potential measures for reducing its impact are suggested.

Indoor residual spraying for preventing malaria in communities using insecticide-treated nets

BACKGROUND

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) are used to prevent malaria transmission. Both interventions use insecticides to kill mosquitoes that bite and rest indoors. Adding IRS to ITNs may improve malaria control simply because two interventions can be better than one. Furthermore, IRS may improve malaria control where ITNs are failing due to insecticide resistance. Pyrethroid insecticides are the predominant class of insecticide used for ITNs, as they are more safe than other insecticide classes when in prolonged contact with human skin. While many mosquito populations have developed some resistance to pyrethroid insecticides, a wider range of insecticides can be used for IRS. This review is an update of the previous Cochrane 2019 edition.

OBJECTIVES

To summarize the effect on malaria of additionally implementing IRS, using non-pyrethroid-like or pyrethroid-like insecticides, in communities currently using ITNs.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register; CENTRAL; MEDLINE; and five other databases for records from 1 January 2000 to 8 November 2021, on the basis that ITN programmes did not begin to be implemented as policy before the year 2000.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included cluster-randomized controlled trials (cRCTs), interrupted time series (ITS), or controlled before-after studies (CBAs) comparing IRS plus ITNs with ITNs alone. We included studies with at least 50% ITN ownership (defined as the proportion of households owning one or more ITN) in both study arms.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed studies for eligibility, analyzed risk of bias, and extracted data. We used risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We stratified by type of insecticide, 'pyrethroid-like' and 'non-pyrethroid-like'; the latter could improve malaria control better than adding IRS insecticides that have the same way of working as the insecticide on ITNs ('pyrethroid-like'). We used subgroup analysis of ITN usage in the studies to explore heterogeneity. We assessed the certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

Eight cRCTs (10 comparisons), one CBA, and one ITS study, all conducted since 2008 in sub-Saharan Africa, met our inclusion criteria. The primary vectors in all sites were mosquitoes belonging to the Anopheles gambiae s.l. complex species; five studies in Benin, Mozambique, Ghana, Sudan, and Tanzania also reported the vector Anopheles funestus. Five cRCTs and both quasi-experimental design studies used insecticides with targets different to pyrethroids (two used bendiocarb, three used pirimiphos-methyl, and one used propoxur. Each of these studies were conducted in areas where the vectors were described as resistant or highly resistant to pyrethroids. Two cRCTs used dichloro-diphenyl-trichlorethane (DDT), an insecticide with the same target as pyrethroids. The remaining cRCT used both types of insecticide (pyrethroid deltamethrin in the first year, switching to bendiocarb for the second year). Indoor residual spraying using 'non-pyrethroid-like' insecticides Six studies were included (four cRCTs, one CBA, and one ITS). Our main analysis for prevalence excluded a study at high risk of bias due to repeated sampling of the same population. This risk did not apply to other outcomes. Overall, the addition of IRS reduced malaria parasite prevalence (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.88; 4 cRCTs, 16,394 participants; high-certainty evidence). IRS may also reduce malaria incidence on average (rate ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.23; 4 cRCTs, 323,631 child-years; low-certainty evidence) but the effect was absent in two studies. Subgroup analyses did not explain the qualitative heterogeneity between studies. One cRCT reported no effect on malaria incidence or parasite prevalence in the first year, when a pyrethroid-like insecticide was used for IRS, but showed an effect on both outcomes in the second year, when a non-pyrethroid-like IRS was used. The addition of IRS may also reduce anaemia prevalence (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.31; 3 cRCTs, 4288 participants; low-certainty evidence). Four cRCTs reported the impact of IRS on entomological inoculation rate (EIR), with variable results; overall, we do not know if IRS had any effect on the EIR in communities using ITNs (very low-certainty evidence). Studies also reported the adult mosquito density and the sporozoite rate, but we could not summarize or pool these entomological outcomes due to differences in the reported data. Three studies measured the prevalence of pyrethroid resistance before and after IRS being introduced: there was no difference detected, but these data are limited. Indoor residual spraying using 'pyrethroid-like' insecticides Adding IRS using a pyrethroid-like insecticide did not appear to markedly alter malaria incidence (rate ratio 1.07, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.43; 2 cRCTs, 15,717 child-years; moderate-certainty evidence), parasite prevalence (RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.44; 3 cRCTs, 10,820 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), or anaemia prevalence (RR 1.12, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.40; 1 cRCT, 4186 participants; low-certainty evidence). Data on EIR were limited so no conclusion was made (very low-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

in communities using ITNs, the addition of IRS with 'non-pyrethroid-like' insecticides was associated with reduced malaria prevalence. Malaria incidence may also be reduced on average, but there was unexplained qualitative heterogeneity, and the effect may therefore not be observed in all settings. When using 'pyrethroid-like' insecticides, there was no detectable additional benefit of IRS in communities using ITNs.

A quasi-experimental study estimating the impact of long-lasting insecticidal nets with and without piperonyl butoxide on pregnancy outcomes

Background

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are the main vector control tool for pregnant women, but their efficacy may be compromised, in part, due to pyrethroid resistance. In 2017, the Ugandan Ministry of Health embedded a cluster randomized controlled trial into the national LLIN campaign, where a random subset of health subdistricts (HSDs) received LLINs treated with piperonyl butoxide (PBO), a chemical synergist known to partially restore pyrethroid sensitivity. Using data from a small, non-randomly selected subset of HSDs, this secondary analysis used quasi-experimental methods to quantify the overall impact of the LLIN campaign on pregnancy outcomes. In an exploratory analysis, differences between PBO and conventional (non-PBO) LLINs on pregnancy outcomes were assessed.

Methods

Birth registry data (n = 39,085) were retrospectively collected from 21 health facilities across 12 HSDs, 29 months before and 9 months after the LLIN campaign (from 2015 to 2018). Of the 12 HSDs, six received conventional LLINs, five received PBO LLINs, and one received a mix of conventional and PBO LLINs. Interrupted time-series analyses (ITSAs) were used to estimate changes in monthly incidence of stillbirth and low birthweight (LBW; <2500 g) before-and-after the campaign. Poisson regression with robust standard errors modeled campaign effects, adjusting for health facility-level differences, seasonal variation, and time-varying maternal characteristics. Comparisons between PBO and conventional LLINs were estimated using difference-in-differences estimators.

Results

ITSAs estimated the campaign was associated with a 26% [95% CI: 7–41] reduction in stillbirth incidence (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.74 [0.59–0.93]) and a 15% [-7, 33] reduction in LBW incidence (IRR=0.85 [0.67–1.07]) over a 9-month period. The effect on stillbirth incidence was greatest for women delivering 7–9 months after the campaign (IRR=0.60 [0.41–0.87]) for whom the LLINs would have covered most of their pregnancy. The IRRs estimated from difference-in-differences analyses comparing PBO to conventional LLINs was 0.78 [95% CI: 0.52, 1.16] for stillbirth incidence and 1.15 [95% CI: 0.87, 1.52] for LBW incidence.

Conclusions

In this region of Uganda, where pyrethroid resistance is high, this study found that a mass LLIN campaign was associated with reduced stillbirth incidence. Effects of the campaign were greatest for women who would have received LLINs early in pregnancy, suggesting malaria protection early in pregnancy can have important benefits that are not necessarily realized through antenatal malaria services. Results from the exploratory analyses comparing PBO and conventional LLINs on pregnancy outcomes were inconclusive, largely due to the wide confidence intervals that crossed the null. Thus, future studies with larger sample sizes are needed.

Resurgence of malaria in Uganda despite sustained indoor residual spraying and repeated long lasting insecticidal net distributions

Five years of sustained indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide from 2014 to 2019, first using a carbamate followed by an organophosphate, was associated with a marked reduction in the incidence of malaria in five districts of Uganda. We assessed changes in malaria incidence over an additional 21 months, corresponding to a change in IRS formulations using clothianidin with and without deltamethrin. Using enhanced health facility surveillance data, our objectives were to 1) estimate the impact of IRS on monthly malaria case counts at five surveillance sites over a 6.75 year period, and 2) compare monthly case counts at five facilities receiving IRS to ten facilities in neighboring districts not receiving IRS. For both objectives, we specified mixed effects negative binomial regression models with random intercepts for surveillance site adjusting for rainfall, season, care-seeking, and malaria diagnostic. Following the implementation of IRS, cases were 84% lower in years 4-5 (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] = 0.16, 95% CI 0.12-0.22), 43% lower in year 6 (aIRR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.44-0.74), and 39% higher in the first 9 months of year 7 (aIRR = 1.39, 95% CI 0.97-1.97) compared to pre-IRS levels. Cases were 67% lower in IRS sites than non-IRS sites in year 6 (aIRR = 0.33, 95% CI 0.17-0.63) but 38% higher in the first 9 months of year 7 (aIRR = 1.38, 95% CI 0.90-2.11). We observed a resurgence in malaria to pre-IRS levels despite sustained IRS. The timing of this resurgence corresponded to a change of active ingredient. Further research is needed to determine causality.

Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence in East Africa: Updating data for malaria stratification

The High Burden High Impact (HBHI) strategy for malaria encourages countries to use multiple sources of available data to define the sub-national vulnerabilities to malaria risk, including parasite prevalence. Here, a modelled estimate of Plasmodium falciparum from an updated assembly of community parasite survey data in Kenya, mainland Tanzania, and Uganda is presented and used to provide a more contemporary understanding of the sub-national malaria prevalence stratification across the sub-region for 2019. Malaria prevalence data from surveys undertaken between January 2010 and June 2020 were assembled form each of the three countries. Bayesian spatiotemporal model-based approaches were used to interpolate space-time data at fine spatial resolution adjusting for population, environmental and ecological covariates across the three countries. A total of 18,940 time-space age-standardised and microscopy-converted surveys were assembled of which 14,170 (74.8%) were identified after 2017. The estimated national population-adjusted posterior mean parasite prevalence was 4.7% (95% Bayesian Credible Interval 2.6-36.9) in Kenya, 10.6% (3.4-39.2) in mainland Tanzania, and 9.5% (4.0-48.3) in Uganda. In 2019, more than 12.7 million people resided in communities where parasite prevalence was predicted ≥ 30%, including 6.4%, 12.1% and 6.3% of Kenya, mainland Tanzania and Uganda populations, respectively. Conversely, areas that supported very low parasite prevalence (<1%) were inhabited by approximately 46.2 million people across the sub-region, or 52.2%, 26.7% and 10.4% of Kenya, mainland Tanzania and Uganda populations, respectively. In conclusion, parasite prevalence represents one of several data metrics for disease stratification at national and sub-national levels. To increase the use of this metric for decision making, there is a need to integrate other data layers on mortality related to malaria, malaria vector composition, insecticide resistance and bionomic, malaria care-seeking behaviour and current levels of unmet need of malaria interventions.